SCENARIOS FOR STRATEGIC AGILITY
NAVIGATING BREXIT - ESCAPING THE TYRANNY OF NOW NAVIGATING BREXIT - ESCAPING THE TYRANNY OF NOW BIG CHANGE MEANS BIG RISK AND ...BIG OPPORTUNITY On June 23rd 2016 the people of the United Kingdom made a decision – a BIG decision…A decision that will change sovereign and commercial relationships across the world in ways in which we cannot yet perhaps perceive. BIG decisions create volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity and all of these mean RISK… in other words; the VUCA world just became suddenly more VUCA! But, where there is RISK there is also OPPORTUNITY in at least equal measure. The referendum meets all criteria for a ‘Black Swan’ event as defined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; an event that is rare or extremely unlikely to happen, and that has a potentially enormous and disproportionate effect - a potential game-changer. It will undoubtedly have significant impacts globally – but we don’t yet know what they are. Those who are quick to adapt and to understand the ‘new normal’ identify hidden opportunities and fast outperform their peers, grow where others falter, and shape the future as the new path emerges.
Once upon a future... The outcome of the referendum presents lots of moving parts that could put a spanner in the works or, with the right strategic response, become the very factors that elevate your organisation to even greater success. Nobody can predict what the future holds with any degree of confidence, but what if there was a way to create flexible strategic plans that could shorten the odds of organisational success? Well, there is such a thing, and it’s not too late to use it… The strategic plans that you have may have been rendered largely obsolete. Most plans assume that the future will be a variation on the current theme. At the very time when forecasting and meticulous planning feel like the right thing to do, they may well have let you down – unpredictable risk and structural uncertainty mean that the typical predict, plan and control response fails at times like these. The key now lies in creative thinking; the anticipation of possible futures and the creation of flexible strategic plans for each of them should they arise. Scenario planning is a structured process that drives the exploration of alternative futures and the examination of what could happen. It’s about ‘mights’ and ‘maybes’ rather than prophecies and predictions. It invites participants to broaden their perspectives and take a long-term view of what the future may hold…
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GALLUS CONSULTING Imagination with structure and rigour (and fringe benefits)... Talking of ‘mights’ and ‘maybes’ at times like these may feel uncomfortably fluffy; but ‘fluffy’ is one thing that scenario planning is not. It is in fact a very structured process where a (consciously selected) group is led through a number of thinking stages: FRAME IT: As in all strategic conversations, the most critical starting point is the definition of the issue to be explored. The time horizon (length of timescale to be navigated), key stakeholders and process parameters are set out to ensure an orderly dialogue and enable structured thinking. INVESTIGATE IT: Information is gathered from sources far and wide. Participants are encouraged to think beyond the obvious and to access new sources. ANALYSE IT: Once this has been agreed the group works to determine the driving forces at play and to cluster, develop, test and name these forces. STRUCTURE IT: An impact/uncertainty matrix is developed for each cluster over the timeline and critical ‘either’ / ‘or’ uncertainties are identified. FOCUS IT: Extreme and highly possible outcomes are combined to determine the key scenarios. SCOPE IT: Broad descriptors are created for each of these scenarios before they are tested and validated and scoped more extensively. STORYBOARD IT: The scenarios are then extrapolated into possible future timelines detailing major events, chronological structure, key players and likely outcomes. The potential why, what, where, when and who of a number of possible futures. TEST IT: Research the scenarios more deeply and understand more clearly the impact and likelihood of their emergence. ANSWER IT: Generate potential future strategies that will work in each of the captured scenarios. MEASURE IT: Determine signposts and indicators, and update the scenarios regularly as time progresses and future realities crystalise. The output of the process is a range of possible future scenarios that can form the foundation to strategic dialogue and flexible planning in a dynamic, high risk environment. Scenario planning can identify factors impacting the very mission and vision of the organisation and act as a catalyst for the early recognition of, until now hidden, risks and opportunities. The process cultivates a balance of creativity, challenge and analytical thinking that can only serve to strengthen any resulting strategies. It’s a powerful tool for strategy formulation in times of fundamental change, where the very fabric and structures underpinning existing strategies are destabilised. But the thinking process itself delivers far more… The very act of scenario planning results in process learning that enhances capabilities at an organisational, leadership team, and individual level. Rehearsing possible futures markedly improves reality testing, the ability to handle complexity and navigate ambiguity, diversity of thinking and global mindset, and ultimately change agility. If done well it provides the momentum to overcome strategic inertia and challenges linear thinking, group think and cultural bias. Even if the captured scenarios never come to pass, the very act of rehearsing possible futures and thinking outside normal limits creates a far greater ability to handle any eventuality. In short, the process itself helps people to become more comfortable with the unknown and develops the thinking processes and capabilities required to adapt fast and to make better strategic decisions. Careful group selection can present a rare opportunity for leadership teams to align, agitators to opine, and future talent to shine all in service of the shared goal of organisational success in a commercial environment that has fundamentally changed and will continue to do so.
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SCENARIOS FOR STRATEGIC AGILITY
Opportunity knocks....for the thinkers... Our research and experience tells us that, in times of change or crisis, the biggest differentiators between positive transformations and catastrophes are leadership capability and inclusive structured thinking. Scenario planning can enhance and expand and, over time, align both…stretching and challenging mental models leads to discovery and an expansion of thinking individually and across the group. The process delivers new concepts and a common language. It focuses thinking in times where concentration can be fractured. Scenario planning raises perception and adaptability, drives action, change and critical decisions and provides the environmental conditions for a more sophisticated strategic conversation to emerge. Authentic leaders who are genuinely well-connected, well-informed, insightful and focused on value creation whilst being open to learning fare best. Capable leadership teams who demonstrate commitment, consistency, courage and alignment and yet are willing to think and challenge their own assumptions are best placed for success. Organisations that consciously open the black box and discuss the unthinkable are less likely to fall by the wayside as new ideas and players emerge. An organisation is a system within a system. By analysing the broader system hitherto hidden options can emerge that counter increased risk and capitalise on developing opportunities.
“Scenarios can help leaders not only to better understand complex contexts, but also to identify critical change levers – the events or collaborations that they can consider to undertake to do better in unfolding futures. Scenarios help organisations to prepare for the worst, while empowering them to strive for the better, repositioning impossibility and possibility.” Oxford University There is never a bad time to engage in scenario planning but Brexit presents the perfect storm. One in which there is risk, yes, but where there is also huge potential opportunity for those willing to think differently and better… Change agility is the ultimate competitive advantage - Is your organisation ready and able to create new futures?
Gallus was launched to put the belief back into business – belief is core to everything we do! Since 2008 Gallus have partnered with ambitious organisations and leaders across the world to make strategy reality, and to build high performance environments that everybody can believe in. With a strong track record in creating fast growth or dynamic change in complex, regulated and emerging sectors; Gallus focus on four pillars of belief - strategic alignment, leadership capability, change agility and enterprise risk management - to drive clarity, create momentum, accelerate growth and generate sustainable value. Gallus can help you to navigate Brexit - get in touch to discuss how we can support your organisation to make the most of emerging opportunities whilst protecting its brand and assets... Find out more about how Gallus can create value for you - start your journey towards clear, valuable momentum here www.gallusconsulting.com
0203 751 6345
www.gallusconsulting.com