Socio-Economic Report by GCMPC

be seen around the County. As the area recovers, it is assumed that infrastructure will endure to make the County attractive for development, creating many improvements to the socioeconomic status of the people who continue to reside, and those that migrate to Genesee County.

Socio-Economic Projections Genesee County has experienced major fluctuations in population and employment over the past twenty years. This fluctuation is influenced by factors such as culture, education, income, location of housing, and many others that all have an impact on the quality of life an individual will experience. To help our local officials make informed decisions about the community they serve, the Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission (GCMPC) has gathered the data appropriate to make projections on population and employment for the years up to 2045. There are many factors that can play a role in the fluctuation of population in the County, with employment opportunity being a strong characteristic to be considered. In turn, population and employment have a huge impact on the opportunity that residents of Genesee County have to create a positive, healthy and meaningful life.

Population in Genesee County The population of Genesee County is still recovering from the housing market crash that was experienced in the late 2000’s, followed by the national recession, often referred to as the Great Recession. Growth experienced earlier in the decade was halted, having a significant impact on the number of foreclosures, short sales, abandoned homes, and value of the housing in the area. By the year 2013, the housing market began to stabilize, and new residential development was starting back up throughout the County. There were many reasons why Genesee County was an attractive place for growth before the housing market crash, with housing infrastructure, such as neighborhood streets and utilities, being very significant. Many infrastructure projects were put into place in the early 2000’s, only to be abandoned when the recession hit. An example of this are the partially finished subdivisions that can

There are several factors that can influence the fluctuation in population within the County. One feature that has a large effect on the steady decrease of the population in Genesee County, is that since the 1980’s the City of Flint has lost roughly 19,000 residents each decade. Although Flint is not projected to grow in the coming decades, there are several other municipalities that are expected to rise in population, which will help in creating revenue flow and improved housing throughout the County. Another factor that has a significant impact on the decrease in population throughout the area is that average house-hold size is decreasing and is projected to continue decreasing in the future. Many municipalities that are stable, the City of Davison for example, will begin to lose population due to decreasing house-hold size. Source: 2045 LRTP Projections

Most of the municipalities in Genesee County will see a net increase in population from 2014 to the projected year of 2045. The map to the right shows the municipalities that will see a 5% or greater change in population during this period, including Thetford Township, City of Mt. Morris, Swartz Creek, Davison Township, Mundy Township, Grand

Blanc Township, Goodrich and Fenton Township. Overall, the Genesee County projections show that there will be a slight decrease in the total population of Genesee County by the year 2045. Employment in Genesee County Currently, there are 191,542 people employed across Genesee County, with the leading sectors of employment being services, retail trade, and government. The services sector of employment is the most populated, with more than three times as many individuals as any other sector. The infographic below shows Genesee County’s varying unemployment rate over time. The Great Recession had a severe impact on the number of residents that were unemployed during this time,

Socio-Economic Projections Page 1

but the County has made major improvements in lowering the unemployment rate to even less than it was before the housing market crash.

number of people employed. The chart to the lower right shows that Grand Blanc Township will see the largest growth of the LUG’s, with an increase of 62% by the year 2045. Most of the County will see some form of growth over the coming decades, and employment will be increasing in almost all areas around Genesee County by the year 2045.

Manufacturing -11.8%

The total employment in Genesee County is expected to improve steadily over the next 30 years, with each local unit of government (LUG) projected to experience an overall increase in the

Retail Trade -11.5%

Other 6.5%

Wholesale Trade -14.4%

Transportation & Public Utilities 23.9%

Services 36%

Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate -2.9%

Government 8%

Source: Genesee County 2045 LRTP Employment Projections

Source: 2045 LRTP Projections

Significant improvements are planned for the transportation system around the Flint-Genesee metropolitan region. This will create employment and business expansion opportunities for communities throughout the region. There are plans to expand the Genesys Health Park, along with an extension of Dort Highway to Baldwin Road. The expansion of the Genesys Health Park is expected to bring 7,300 support jobs to Genesee County, and the expansion of Dort Highway south to Baldwin Road will make employment more attractive in the area. Making improvements to transportation around the County is very important when considering employment projections. When transportation is improved, the employment of the region is also improved.

While the manufacturing, wholesale, finance, and retail trade sectors are projected to experience a gradual decline in employment, the services sector is projecting a substantial growth in the next three decades. Projections show a shift from the traditional employment in manufacturing towards more employment in the services sector. Across all employment sectors, there is a projected increase Employment 2014 2045 Local Unit Argentine Twp Atlas Twp Burton City Clayton Twp Clio City Davison City Davison Twp Fenton City Fenton Twp Flint City Flint Twp Flushing City Flushing Twp Forest Twp Gaines Twp Genesee Twp Goodrich Village Grand Blanc City

1,108 753 13,081 1,249 1,709 3,000 4,399 9,193 2,523 66,484 26,885 2,726 1,118 377 447 6,006 1,401

1,326 853 14,410 1,457 1,876 3,352 5,109 10,144 2,844 74,302 29,883 3,129 1,319 428 501 6,889

Population 2014 2045 % Change 6,687 7,004 4.7% 5,998 6,131 2.2% 28,974 30,120 4.0% 7,339 7,619 3.8% 2,554 2,503 -2.0% 5,000 4,932 -1.4% 19,071 20,130 5.6% 11,453 11,950 4.3% 15,261 17,504 14.7% 99,002 78,538 -20.7% 30,892 31,352 1.5% 8,135 8,050 0.9% 10,337 10,430 0.1% 3,734 3,738 4.4% 6,252 6,525 -1.0% 20,732 21,087 1.7%

% Change 19.7% 13.2% 10.2% 16.7% 9.8% 11.7% 16.1% 10.3% 12.7% 11.8% 11.2% 14.8% 18.0% 13.5% 12.1% 14.7%

1,696 21.1%

6,244 6,651 Grand Blanc Twp 13,889 22,472 Linden City 950 1,126 Montrose City 775 931 Montrose Twp 909 1,011 Mt Morris City 1,001 1,165 Mt Morris Twp 9,505 10,572 Mundy Twp 7,734 8,780 Otisville Village 408 469 Richfield Twp 1,168 1,260 Swartz Creek 2,370 2,804 Thetford Twp 859 978 Vienna Twp 3,275 3,906 Genesee County 191,542 221,643

6.5% 61.8% 18.5% 20.1% 11.2% 16.4% 11.2% 13.5% 14.9% 7.9% 18.3% 13.9% 57.0% 15.7%

1,831

2,380

30.0%

8,033 36,733 3,860 1,599 6,030 2,985 20,797 14,722 832 8,433 5,589 6,797 12,862 412,895

8,001 39,963 4,138 1,558 6,261 3,288 21,835 16,516 823 8,788 5,881 7,299 13,157 407,870

-0.4% 8.8% 7.2% -2.5% 3.8% 10.1% 5.0% 12.2% -1.1% 4.2% 5.2% 7.4% 2.3% -1.2%

of 15.7% in employment within Genesee County from 2014 to 2045. When employment is up, people have the money to afford better housing, pay for services, and create a savings while also putting revenue back into the community. Final Thoughts Even though the population is expected to slowly decrease, the quality of life and opportunities for employment in Genesee County are expected to increase. Looking forward, total employment is expected to increase, and it can be concluded that job creation will vary between employment sectors. There will be significant improvements to the transportation system, and major increases in employment within the services employment sector. Current infrastructure will continue to be developed as each municipality recovers at its own pace from the housing market crash. In the forthcoming decades, it is important that those in positions of power within the County make a conscious effort to improve the economy. It is their responsibility to make their best effort to give residents of the County an opportunity at a successful and meaningful life. As stated in the Flint & Genesee County Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, “to begin to replace jobs lost, we must understand economic development can no longer happen by ‘chance’, but rather, through deliberate actions and strategies on the part of Genesee County and its component communities.” In conclusion, it can be noted that although Genesee County has faced a decrease in jobs and population in the past decades, over the next 30 years there will be modest signs of improvement to employment and population in a majority of the County. For more information on this topic, please reference our 2045 Employment Projections Methodology Report and 2045 Population Projections Methodology Report.

Source: 2045 LRTP Projections

Socio-Economic Projections Page 2

Genesee County Bridge Technical Report

2045 Population Projections Methodology Report MAP-21 Performance Measures…………………………………………………………..12

2005 Base Year Population Data

Prepared by the Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission

Genesee County Population Projections Methodology Report Base Year Data and Factors…………………………………….…………..………1 Methodology for 2045 Projections………………………………………………….1 Methodology for the Local Units of Government Outside the City of Flint...2 City of Flint Population Projection Methodology……………………………..…3 Other Factors…………………..……………………………………………………….4 Comparison to Other Data Sources…………………….…………………………5 Population Projection Assumptions………………………………………………..5 2045 Genesee County Population Projections…………………………………..7

List of Figures Graph of City of Flint Projected Percent Reduction in Households…………4

Appendix A

Methodology Examples

Appendix B

Recovery Factors and Supporting Census Data

Genesee County 2045 Population Projections Methodology Base Year Data and Factors TAZ Level Data

The population projections for Genesee County were produced on a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level where growth/decline was calculated for each TAZ which can then be aggregated up to the municipality level for all cities, townships and some villages. Genesee County is divided into 639 TAZ. 2014 Census estimates were used to calibrate 2014 base year population and housing data. The distribution of population and housing from the 2010 Census redistricting data was used to populate the 2014 TAZ with 2014 Census estimate data.

Building Permits and Demolitions

In the development of the 2035 projections building permit data (new builds and demolitions) was used to identify the areas of growth/decline in Genesee County. Building permit data was collected from every municipality, geolocated and aggregated to the TAZ level. Building permits include single-family residential, multi-family residential, and mobile homes all weighted equally per housing unit. Data was used from the years 2000 through 2006. Comparing the 1990 and 2000 Census and Genesee County building permit data for the same time period it was decided that a reduction factor of .42 would be used to compensate for building permits issued but not completed and vacancy rates. The factored net change was then averaged out from the seven years of data into an average yearly growth/decline factor that will be identified from this point on as the 2035 Annual TAZ Household Growth Factors. Comparing 2014 Census estimates for Genesee County to 2040 LRTP 2014 projections staff noted growth was 37% of what was projected. For the 2045 projections building factors were decreased to 37% of 2035 LRTP values to compensate for the actual growth realized through 2014. The adjusted factor will be identified from this point on as the Adjusted 2035 Annual TAZ Household Growth Factors. This factor is one of several factors used to project the 2045 base year data from the 2014 Census estimates.

Methodology for 2045 Population Projections

For the 2035 LRTP Population Projections all local units of Government in Genesee County (including the City of Flint) were projected using the same methodology. The 2040 projections use different methodology for the City of Flint than what was used for all other local units of government in Genesee County. The 2045 projections continue with the methodology of the 2040 projections in using separate methodology for the City of Flint. The primary reason for this separation is that the City of Flint is a unique case as it has lost on average 19,000 people per decade since 1980. No other local unit of government in Genesee County has a fraction of the continued loss realized in the City of Flint. The following sections of this report describe the methodology used for areas outside the City of Flint and for the City of Flint itself.

Methodology for the Local Units of Government outside the City of Flint A. New Construction

In the late 2000’s much of the growth realized earlier in the decade was halted with the crash of the housing market and the beginning of the national recession. These conditions resulted in the following: -An uncharacteristic number of foreclosures -An uncharacteristic number of short sales -An uncharacteristic number of abandoned homes -An uncharacteristic drop in housing values These conditions made it a lot cheaper and attractive to buy an existing home rather than building a new one. Many older homes were abandoned as homeowners were able to buy newer and larger homes for relatively the same monthly payment of their existing home. Residential development basically halted in the late 2000’s. In 2012/2013 the housing market began to stabilize and new residential development was starting throughout Genesee County. While seeing positive growth, the amount and the short timeframe of the recovery leading up to the 2045 population projections did not give a firm foundation to build growth factors from. As a result the main assumption that staff made moving forward is that Genesee County communities will eventually get back to a certain percentage of growth realized in the first half of the 2000’s. Comparing 2014 Census estimates for Genesee County to 2040 LRTP 2014 projections staff noted growth was 37% of what was projected. For the 2045 projections building factors were decreased to 37% of 2035 LRTP values to compensate for the actual growth realized through 2014. A large amount of infrastructure was put in place in the early 2000’s as seen in partially finished subdivisions throughout the County. It is assumed that factors such as infrastructure that made areas in the County attractive for growth before the housing market crash and the national recession will continue to attract growth as the recovery continues. To determine how a community may recover staff used Census data, specifically 2010 vacancy rates, percent change in population from the 2000 to 2010 Census, and a general trend in Census population numbers from 1980 to 2010 to develop a recovery factor for each community. Charts and maps of Census data used to create the Recovery Factors and of the Recovery Factors themselves can be found in Appendix B. The recovery factors were applied to 2035 Adjusted Annual TAZ HH Growth Factors creating the 2045 Annual TAZ HH Growth Factors. This allows each community to recover at its own pace until it reaches its’ projected annual growth potential. This growth/decline is represented as an annual change in households each year at the TAZ level. An example of how this is calculated is provided in Example 1 of Appendix A.

Vacancy

Every community in Genesee County had a higher 2010 Census vacancy rate as compared to the 2000 Census vacancy rate. Another assumption made by staff is that the same factors that have affected new construction have also affected vacancy and that in most communities many of the houses that were vacant in

2010 will be occupied returning the community to 2000 vacancy levels. A vacancy rate is hard to project into the future as demolitions and new construction each affect the rate. At this time the Genesee County population projections do not project vacant housing units into the future and thus a vacancy rate is not projected. To compensate for this staff identified a target number of houses in each community that will move from vacant to occupied in the future. The target was calculated by first applying the 2000 vacancy rate to the 2010 housing units. The difference in comparing the 2010 vacant units to the factored 2010 vacant units using the 2000 vacancy rate is the target. As with new construction each community will recover vacancy at a different rate so the target number of housing units is divided by the Recovery Factor to get an annual number of housing units that will move from vacant to occupied each year until the target number of units is reached. This is represented as an annual change in households each year at the TAZ level. An example of how this is calculated is provided in Example 2 of Appendix A.

Total Households

The combination of new construction households and households recovered from vacancy represents the growth in households for a TAZ for a given year. The households in a TAZ for a given year are multiplied by the projected persons per household for the TAZ for the representative year to calculate population. An example of how this is calculated is provided in Example 3 of Appendix A.

City of Flint Population Projection Methodology

The City of Flint has continued to see a steady loss in population over the past several decades averaging a loss of 19,000 persons per decade since 1980. At some point in the future this rate of loss should level out, however, this is hard to estimate given the consistency of population loss in the City even with significant investments made in the community over the past decade. Genesee County population projections are driven by changes to households. Staff used historic percent changes to households in the City of Flint to project future percent changes to households. The percent change in households increased each decade since 1980 leading up to the 2010 Census and the future projection reverses the pattern decreasing the percent change in households for the decades out to 2045. This approach tappers back the percent household reduction in the future. Comparing 2014 Census estimates for the City of Flint with 2040 LRTP 2014 projections it was noted that the Census estimates show less population decline than originally projected. The trend for the City was shifted a decade for the 2045 projections to account for this difference. An illustration of the change and difference between the 2040 and 2045 factors is provided on the chart on the next page.

This graph illustrates the pattern for existing and projected Percent Reduction in households for the City of Flint. 18.0% 17.0%

16.0%

17.0%

14.0% 12.0% 10.0%

9.6%

8.0% 6.0%

6.5%

4.0%

3.4%

2.0% 0.0% 1990

1.0% 2000

2010

2020

2040Â LRTP

2030

2040

2050

2045Â LRTP

Staff used information in the City of Flint Master Plan to identify areas and levels of growth and decline. This information was coded into the TAZ representing the City of Flint and used to distribute annual HH reductions. The projections also recognized areas of growth in the City such as Smith Village, student housing, and the Durant that were not accounted for or at least not fully accounted for in the 2010 Census. The projected households for each City of Flint TAZ are multiplied by the persons per household projections for each TAZ for the representative year. An example of how the City of Flint Population Projections are calculated is provided in Example 5 (a) and 5 (b) of Appendix A.

Other Factors A. Availability for growth

In high growth TAZs, availability of land was looked at to determine the number of housing units a TAZ can actually hold. Aerial imagery was used to determine available land and zoning ordinances were used to determine the number of units available in that area. These were applied to the high growth TAZ in the same method that was used in the previous two projections.

Household Size

Up to this point we are working with households not persons in our population forecasting. For each TAZ a person per household factor is derived from 2014 Census data. We know that the average household size is decreasing and that it is projected to continue to decrease in the future. The University of Michigan Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy used Regional Economic Models Inc (REMI) 2040 population projection data as their base to

develop household projections for Genesee County out to the year 2040. This data is provided in five year increments and was developed for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT). The information derived from this dataset for the Genesee County population projections is an annual projected change in household size. Persons per household (PPHH) is easily calculated from the UM/REMI projections by dividing the population by the number of households for each five year increment. This represents the projected UM/REMI average PPHH for Genesee County for each five year increment. The annual change in household size for years between each five year increment is calculated by dividing the difference in PPHH for two sequential five year increments by five. From this calculation each five year period is represented by an annual PPHH reduction factor that will be applied to each TAZ to project TAZ level reductions in annual household size. Years 2041 and 2045 are outside the range of the UM/REMI dataset so staff used the rate of change in the previous period to continue the declining PPHH trend. An example of how PPHH Reduction Factors are used at the TAZ level to project PPHH is provided in Example 4 of Appendix A.

Comparison to other data sources

As stated earlier the population projections are calculated at the TAZ level and then aggregated by local unit of government. The local unit of government data is further aggregated to County level projections. The County level projections are compared to and validate against other population projections such as the 2040 Genesee County LRTP Population Projections, 2040 Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI) projections, and 2040 and 2050 Woods and Poole projections. 2040 Genesee County LRTP Population Projections: 2040 Woods and Poole: 2040 REMI: 2050 Woods and Poole: 2045 Genesee County LRTP Population Projections:

2045 429,774 423,557 400,519 395,692 407,870

A 2045 year was estimated for the 2040 Genesee County LRTP Population Projections, 2040 Woods and Poole, and 2040 REMI for comparison purposes. Population Projection Assumptions    

Data from the 2010 Census is accurate for each traffic analysis zone. Locations of building permits from 2000-2006 will represent the areas of future growth out to 2040. Locations of demolitions from 2000-2006 will represent areas of future decline out to 2040. All new building permits do not equal new housing units. The number of new housing units is a factor based on the difference between the number of new building permits between 1990 and 2000 compared to the

  



  

number of new households reported by the Census during that same time period. Density patterns of single-family residential will continue at the current densities now present in the local unit of governments’ master plan and zoning ordinances. Household size will continue to decline at the rates suggested in the 2040 University of Michigan Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy/Regional Economic Models Inc (REMI) data. Interpolation of the five-year increments of household size in the 2040 University of Michigan Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy/Regional Economic Models Inc (REMI) data can be analyzed to show household size changes for any given year out to 2045. Local planning knowledge of future development in Genesee County is a factor that is considered when applying statewide and national data to the local area and adjustments are made where known development is occurring that is not represented in the statewide and national datasets. Genesee County Local Units of Government will eventually get back to 37% of the levels of growth realized in the first half of the 2000’s. Genesee County Local Units of Government will eventually get back to the levels of vacancy realized in the first half of the 2000’s. Recovery Factors can be assigned to a community based on current and historic Census vacancy and population data and used to factor future construction and vacancy recovery.

Approved 2045 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Population Projections Local Unit Argentine Twp Atlas Twp Burton City Clayton Twp Clio City Davison City Davison Twp Fenton City Fenton Twp Flint City Flint Twp Flushing City Flushing Twp Forest Twp Gaines Twp Gaines Village Genesee Twp Goodrich Village Grand Blanc City Grand Blanc Twp Linden City Montrose City Montrose Twp Mt Morris City Mt Morris Twp Mundy Twp Otisville Village Richfield Twp Swartz Creek City Thetford Twp Vienna Twp Genesee County

2014 6,687 5,998 28,974 7,339 2,554 5,000 19,071 11,453 15,261 99,002 30,892 8,135 10,337 3,734 6,252 371 20,732 1,831 8,033 36,733 3,860 1,599 6,030 2,985 20,797 14,722 832 8,433 5,589 6,797 12,862 412,895

2020 6,716 5,940 28,733 7,339 2,505 4,904 19,071 11,728 16,115 90,854 30,502 8,048 10,281 3,694 6,284 371 20,505 2,207 7,930 37,196 3,910 1,575 5,994 2,984 20,737 14,974 831 8,382 5,603 6,791 12,849 405,553

2025 6,737 5,947 28,820 7,352 2,493 4,869 19,164 11,688 16,259 86,607 30,441 8,055 10,251 3,697 6,298 368 20,481 2,230 7,891 37,524 3,920 1,569 6,015 3,013 20,833 15,195 825 8,416 5,623 6,840 12,831 402,253

2035 6,844 6,016 29,463 7,455 2,485 4,872 19,562 11,840 17,059 80,851 30,726 8,015 10,298 3,702 6,387 366 20,682 2,297 7,908 38,830 4,085 1,557 6,141 3,125 21,244 15,793 820 8,568 5,727 7,030 12,938 402,689

2040 6,940 6,087 29,995 7,555 2,502 4,916 19,899 11,928 17,324 79,365 31,121 8,055 10,390 3,729 6,471 367 20,938 2,344 7,977 39,497 4,122 1,561 6,241 3,213 21,591 16,196 824 8,699 5,820 7,181 13,082 405,931

2045 7,004 6,131 30,120 7,619 2,503 4,932 20,130 11,950 17,504 78,538 31,352 8,050 10,430 3,738 6,525 367 21,087 2,380 8,001 39,963 4,138 1,558 6,261 3,288 21,835 16,516 823 8,788 5,881 7,299 13,157 407,870

2014‐2040 % Δ 3.8% 1.5% 3.5% 2.9% ‐2.0% ‐1.7% 4.3% 4.2% 13.5% ‐19.8% 0.7% ‐1.0% 0.5% ‐0.1% 3.5% ‐0.9% 1.0% 28.0% ‐0.7% 7.5% 6.8% ‐2.3% 3.5% 7.6% 3.8% 10.0% ‐1.0% 3.2% 4.1% 5.6% 1.7%

2014‐2045 % Δ 4.7% 2.2% 4.0% 3.8% ‐2.0% ‐1.4% 5.6% 4.3% 14.7% ‐20.7% 1.5% ‐1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 4.4% ‐1.0% 1.7% 30.0% ‐0.4% 8.8% 7.2% ‐2.5% 3.8% 10.1% 5.0% 12.2% ‐1.1% 4.2% 5.2% 7.4% 2.3%

2045 Genesee County Population Projections Dataset Comparison Datasets

2014 GCMPC 2040 LRTP 417,581 Woods & Poole 2040 421,581 Regional Economic Model Incorporated (REMI) 2040 419,664 Woods & Poole 2050 414,927 Census 2014 Estimates 412,895 GCMPC 2045 LRTP 412,895 Blue italicized numbers indicate interpolated or projected data.

2020 409,210 421,711 411,712 414,212 ‐ 405,553

2025 410,384 422,231 407,617 413,298 ‐ 402,253

2035 416,286 422,895 403,049 408,001 ‐ 402,689

2040 423,030 423,226 401,784 402,579 ‐ 405,931

2045 429,774 423,557 400,519 395,692 ‐ 407,870

2045 Population Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨ 23

£ ¤

Montrose

Clio

57 O P

Flushing Twp

57 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp Mt Morris

13 O P 475

§ ¦ ¨ 75

§ ¦ ¨

15 O P

£ ¤

Flint Twp

Davison Twp

LAPEER COUNTY

Clayton Twp

Flint

Davison

§ ¦ ¨

P O

Lennon

Burton

54 O P Swartz Creek

121

P O

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

Flint Twp

15 O P Grand Blanc Twp

Mundy Twp

Atlas Twp

Goodrich

Grand Blanc

Gaines Argentine Twp

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

Fenton Twp

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Flushing

£ ¤ Linden

Population Change from 2014 Census Estimates to 2045 Projections 5% and over 0% to 4.9% -0.1% to -4.9% Greater than -5%

Fenton

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

Appendix A Methodology Examples

1. Example Calculation for Annual Household (HH) Growth Factor for Areas outside the City of Flint Annual Distribution of Target 2035 Annual HH Adjusted 2035 Annual Growth Factor HH Growth Factor for for TAZ TAZ (37%) Community 1 TAZ 1

Community 1 TAZ 2

Community 1 TAZ 3

Community 1 Total

2045 Annual HH Growth Factor Recovery Year 1 Community 1 TAZ 1 Community 1 TAZ 2 Community 1 TAZ 3 Community 1 Total

Year 2 2.00 1.00 2.80 5.80

Recovery Factor for Community 1

   

= = = =

5 5 5 5

Year 3 4.00 2.00 5.60 11.60

Year 4 6.00 3.00 8.40 17.40

2045 Annual Recovery Factor for TAZ 2.00 1.00 2.80 5.80

Year 5 8.00 4.00 11.20 23.20

Year 6 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

Year 7 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

Year 6 940.00 574.00 582.00 2,096 29.00

Year 7 950.00 579.00 596.00 2,125 29.00

2045 Annual Recovery Factors for each TAZ are compounded each year until the Adjusted 2035 Annual HH Growth Factor is reached. 2045 HH Projection For Community 1 Using Only 2045 Annual HH Growth Factor (no Recovered Vacancy included) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Community 1 TAZ 1 902.00 906.00 912.00 920.00 930.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 555.00 557.00 560.00 564.00 569.00 Community 1 TAZ 3 528.80 534.40 542.80 554.00 568.00 Community 1 Total 1,986 1,997 2,015 2,038 2,067 Community 1 HH Growth 5.80 11.60 17.40 23.20 29.00 New households are added to existing households for each TAZ.

2. Example Calculation for Recovered Vacancy for Areas Outside the City of Flint Community 1 Information 2010 Vacant Houses 2010 Households 2010 Housing Units 2000 Vacancy Rate

220 1,980 2,200 6%

2010 Factored Vacant Houses Using Census 200 Vacancy Rate Difference = Target

132

2,200 x 6%=132

‐

220

132

The Target represents the number of housing units that will be moved from vacant to occupied through the timeframe of the projections. The rate at which this happens depends on the Recover Factor for the community the TAZ represents. Annual Distribution of Target Vacant Houses

Community 1 TAZ 1 Community 1 TAZ 2 Community 1 TAZ 3 Community 1 Total

100 71 49 220

Percent of Vacant Houses this TAZ represents for the community 45.5% 32.3% 22.3% 100.0%

Distribution of Target

Recovery Factor

Annual Recovery Factor

40.00 28.40 19.60 88

5 5 5

8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

The Target is distributed based on the Percentage of Vacant Houses the TAZ represents for the community and is then divided by the Recovery Factor to get an Annual Recovery Factor for each TAZ. 2045 Annual Vacancy Recovery Year 1 Community 1 TAZ 1 Community 1 TAZ 2 Community 1 TAZ 3 Community 1 Total

8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 2

Year 3 8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 4

Year 5 8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 6

Year 7

8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60 88

0 0 0 0

Year 5 940.00 582.40 545.60 2,068 88 The housing units that are newly occupied from vacant houses in a given year are added to the existing households in each TAZ

Year 6 940.00 582.40 545.60 2,068

Year 7 940.00 582.40 545.60 2,068

The Annual Recovery Factor is applied to each year until the Target of housing units is reached for the TAZ. 2045 HH Projection For Community 1 Using Only Recovered Vacancy (no New Build Housing included) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 916.00 924.00 932.00 Community 1 TAZ 1 908.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 559.68 565.36 571.04 576.72 Community 1 TAZ 3 529.92 533.84 537.76 541.68 Community 1 Total 1,998 2,015 2,033 2,050

3. Example Calculation Combining Recovered Vacancy and Household Growth Factor for Areas Outside the City of Flint 2045 Annual Vacancy Recovery Year 1 Community 1 TAZ 1 8.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 5.68 Community 1 TAZ 3 3.92 Community 1 Total 17.60

Year 2 8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 3 8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 4 8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 5 8.00 5.68 3.92 17.60

Year 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Year 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Year 3 6.00 3.00 8.40 17.40

Year 4 8.00 4.00 11.20 23.20

Year 5 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

Year 6 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

Year 7 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

2045 Combined Annual Vacancy Recovery and Annual HH Growth Factor Recovery Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Community 1 TAZ 1 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 6.68 7.68 8.68 9.68 10.68 Community 1 TAZ 3 6.72 9.52 12.32 15.12 17.92 Community 1 Total 23.40 29.20 35.00 40.80 46.60

Year 6 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

Year 7 10.00 5.00 14.00 29.00

Projected Households for Community 1 Year 1 Year 2 Community 1 TAZ 1 910.00 922.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 560.68 568.36 Community 1 TAZ 3 532.72 542.24 Community 1 Total 2,003 2,033

Year 6 980.00 602.40 601.60 2,184

Year 7 990.00 607.40 615.60 2,213

2045 Annual HH Growth Factor Recovery Year 1 Year 2 Community 1 TAZ 1 2.00 4.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 1.00 2.00 Community 1 TAZ 3 2.80 5.60 Community 1 Total 5.80 11.60

Year 3 936.00 577.04 554.56 2,068

Year 4 952.00 586.72 569.68 2,108

Year 5 970.00 597.40 587.60 2,155

New households from recovered vacancy and new builds are added to existing households.

4. Example Population Projections Combining All Factors for Areas Outside the City of Flint Projected Households (HH) for Community 1 Year 1 Community 1 TAZ 1 HH 910.00 Community 1 TAZ 2 HH 560.68 Community 1 TAZ 3 HH 532.72 Community 1 Total HH 2,003.40

Year 2 922.00 568.36 542.24 2,032.60

Year 3 936.00 577.04 554.56 2,067.60

Year 4 952.00 586.72 569.68 2,108.40

Year 5 970.00 597.40 587.60 2,155.00

Year 6 980.00 602.40 601.60 2,184.00

Year 7 990.00 607.40 615.60 2,213.00

Projected Persons Per Household (PPHH) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 PPHH Reduction Factors ‐0.01056 ‐0.01056 ‐0.01056 ‐0.01056 ‐0.01056 ‐0.00992 ‐0.00992 Projected PPHH Comm 1 TAZ 1 2.489436 2.478873 2.468309 2.457745 2.447182 2.437263 2.427345 Projected PPHH Comm 1 TAZ 2 2.589436 2.578873 2.568309 2.557745 2.547182 2.537263 2.527345 Projected PPHH Comm 1 TAZ 3 2.289436 2.278873 2.268309 2.257745 2.247182 2.237263 2.227345 The PPHH Reduction Factor for the County for a given year is subtracted from the previous years PPHH calculation for the TAZ. This is repeated each year for each TAZ. Projected Population for Community 1 Year 1 Community 1 TAZ 1 Pop 2265.387 Community 1 TAZ 2 Pop 1451.845 Community 1 TAZ 3 Pop 1219.629 Community 1 Total Pop 4936.861

Year 2 2285.521 1465.728 1235.696 4986.945

Population = Persons Per Household x Households.

Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 2310.337 2339.774 2373.766 2388.518 2403.072 1482.017 1500.68 1521.686 1528.447 1535.109 1257.913 1286.192 1320.444 1345.938 1371.154 5050.268 5126.646 5215.897 5262.903 5309.334

5 (a). Factors for City of Flint Household (HH) Reduction Projected Precent Reduction in Households (HH) between the years: 2021 to 2030 2031 to 2040 6.50% 3.40%

2011 to 2020 9.6%

2041 to 2050 1.00%

2014 Flint HH 41,078

2020 Flint HH (Projected) 37,805

2030 Flint HH( Projected) 35,348

2040 Flint HH( Projected) 34,146

2014 to 2020 HH Reduction 2,303

2021 to 2030 HH Reduction 2,457

2031 to 2040 HH Reduction 1,202

2041 to 2050 HH Reduction 341

For each period the City of Flint combined households are multiplied by the Percent Reduction in Households to calculate the HH Reduction for the represented decade. 2014 to 2020 HH Reduction Per Year 383.83

2021 to 2030 HH Reduction Per Year 245.73

2031 to 2040 HH Reduction Per Year 120.18

2041 to 2045 HH Reduction Per Year 34.15

The Household Reduction for the represented decade is divided by 10 to get an Annual Reduction Per Year. 18.0%

17.0%

16.0%

17.0%

14.0% 12.0% 10.0%

9.6%

8.0% 6.0%

6.5%

4.0%

0.0% 1990

3.4%

2.0%

1.0% 2000

2010 2040 LRTP

2020

2030

2040

2050

2045 LRTP

This graph illustrates the pattern for existing and projected Percent Reduction in households for the City of Flint.

5 (b).Example of How Household (HH) Reduction Factors for the City of Flint Change HHs at the TAZ Level

Percent of HH Change This TAZ Represents Example Flint TAZ 1 Example Flint TAZ 2 Example Flint TAZ 3 Example Flint TAZ 4

20% 30% 40% 10% 100%

Year 1 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 2 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 3 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 4 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 5 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 6 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 7 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 8 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 9 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 10 76.77 115.15 153.53 38.38 383.83

Year 11 49.15 73.72 98.29 24.57 245.73

Year 12 49.15 73.72 98.29 24.57 245.73

In the chart above the HH Reduction Per Year for the City of Flint from 5 (a) is multiplied by the Percent of HH Change the TAZ Represents to get HH reduction per year per TAZ Year 1 Example Flint TAZ 1 8138.83333 Example Flint TAZ 2 12208.25 Example Flint TAZ 3 16277.6667 Example Flint TAZ 4 4069.41667 40,694

Year 2 8062.07 12093.10 16124.13 4031.03 40,310

Year 3 7985.30 11977.95 15970.60 3992.65 39,927

Year 4 7908.53 11862.80 15817.07 3954.27 39,543

Year 5 7831.77 11747.65 15663.53 3915.88 39,159

Year 6 7755.00 11632.50 15510.00 3877.50 38,775

Year 7 7678.23 11517.35 15356.47 3839.12 38,391

Year 8 7601.47 11402.20 15202.93 3800.73 38,007

Year 9 7524.70 11287.05 15049.40 3762.35 37,624

Year 10 7447.93 11171.90 14895.87 3723.97 37,240

Year 11 7398.79 11098.18 14797.57 3699.39 36,994

In the actual City of Flint projections new construction projects were manually added to the representing TAZ but were not included as part of this example. The City of Flint is represented by 191 TAZ in the Genesee County Transportation Model

Year 12 7349.64 11024.46 14699.28 3674.82 36,748

Appendix B Recovery Factors and Supporting Census Data

Recovery Factors for the 2045 Population Projections Local Unit Argentine Twp Atlas Twp Clayton Twp Davison Twp Fenton City Fenton Twp Flushing Twp Gaines Twp Goodrich Village Grand Blanc City Grand Blanc Twp Linden City Mundy Twp Otisville Village Richfield Twp Swartz Creek City Vienna Twp Clio City Flushing City Forest Twp Gaines Village Montrose City Burton City Montrose Twp Davison City Flint Twp Genesee Twp Mt Morris City Mt Morris Twp Thetford Twp

Recovery Factor 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25

Summary Med Vac and Med Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Low Vac and Med Growth: Pos Growth 1990 Med Vac and Med Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Growth: Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Growth: Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Growth: Pos Growth 1980 Low Vac and Med Growth: Pos Growth 1990 Low Vac and Med Growth: Pos Growth 1990 Med Vac and High Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Low Vac and Med Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Low Vac and High Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and Mild Loss:Pos Growth 1980 Low Vac and Med Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Growth:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and Med Growth:Pos Growth 1980 High Vac and Med Growth:Flat/Neg Growth 1980 Med Vac and Med Growth: Flat/Neg Growth 1980 Low Vac and Mild loss: Flat/Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and Med Growth:Neg Growth 1980 Med Vac and Med Growth:Flat/Neg Growth 1980 Med Vac and Mild Loss:Flat Growth 1980 Med Vac and Mild Loss:Pos Growth 1980 Med Vac and High Loss: Neg Growth 1980 High Vac and High Loss:Neg Growth 1980:Neg Growth 1980 High Vac and High Loss:Neg Growth 1980 High Vac and Mild Loss:Neg Growth 1980 High Vac and High Loss:Neg Growth 1980 High Vac and High Loss:Neg Growth 1980

% Vacant 9.9% 4.1% 6.5% 6.5% 9.1% 9.1% 5.7% 5.0% 6.4% 5.8% 8.1% 8.4% 5.9% 9.8% 5.5% 7.1% 7.3% 10.5% 6.3% 4.0% 9.9% 8.0% 8.5% 8.2% 8.6% 10.4% 12.2% 12.5% 13.8% 10.8%

Pop Change 392 229 28 1853 1164 2584 410 329 507 34 7681 1130 2891 ‐18 560 656 147 163 41 ‐18 14 38 ‐347 ‐112 ‐363 ‐1724 ‐2535 ‐117 ‐2224 ‐1228

% Pop Change 6.0% 3.9% 0.4% 10.5% 11.0% 19.9% 4.0% 5.1% 37.5% 0.4% 25.8% 39.5% 23.7% ‐2.0% 6.9% 12.9% 1.1% 6.6% 0.5% ‐0.5% 3.8% 2.3% ‐1.1% ‐1.8% ‐6.6% ‐5.1% ‐10.5% ‐3.7% ‐9.4% ‐14.8%

2045 Population Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨ 23

£ ¤

Montrose

Clio

57 O P

Flushing Twp

57 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp Mt Morris

13 P O 475

§ ¦ ¨ 75

§ ¦ ¨

15 P O

£ ¤

Flint Twp

LAPEER COUNTY

Clayton Twp

Flint

Davison

Davison Twp

§ ¦ ¨

P O

Lennon

Burton

54 O P Swartz Creek

121

P O

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

Flint Twp

15 O P Grand Blanc Twp

Mundy Twp

Atlas Twp

Goodrich

Grand Blanc

Gaines

Argentine Twp

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

Fenton Twp

Recovery Factor

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Flushing

£ ¤ Linden

Factor: 10 Factor: 15 Factor: 20 Factor: 25 No Factor

Fenton

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

Vacancy Data for the 2000 to 2010 Census Local Unit Forest Township Atlas Township Gaines Township Richfield Township Flushing Township Grand Blanc City Mundy Township Flushing City Goodrich Village Clayton Township Davison Township Swartz Creek City Vienna Township Montrose City Grand Blanc Township Montrose Township Linden City Burton City Davison City Fenton City Fenton Township Otisville Village Argentine Township Gaines Village Flint Township Clio City Thetford Township Genesee Township Mount Morris City Mount Morris Township 2010 Percent Vacant: 10% to 14% 2010 Percent Vacant: 6% to 10% 2010 Percent Vacant: Less than 6%

Summary of 2010 Percent Vacant

2010 Percent Vacant

2000 Percent Vacant

2010 Vacant

2000 Vacant

Low Vacancy Low Vacancy Low Vacancy Low Vacancy Low Vacancy Low Vacancy Low Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy Medium Vacancy High Vacancy High Vacancy High Vacancy High Vacancy High Vacancy High Vacancy

4.02% 4.05% 4.67% 5.45% 5.67% 5.76% 5.85% 6.34% 6.36% 6.46% 6.49% 7.09% 7.34% 7.99% 8.07% 8.22% 8.44% 8.50% 8.56% 9.07% 9.14% 9.76% 9.90% 9.94% 10.42% 10.48% 10.82% 12.25% 12.49% 13.77%

2.99% 3.95% 2.43% 5.06% 4.24% 4.91% 3.39% 3.46% 6.08% 4.93% 5.07% 5.18% 5.25% 6.44% 5.28% 5.00% 4.98% 5.26% 5.88% 5.12% 6.94% 7.05% 8.02% 7.74% 6.00% 9.29% 3.16% 7.38% 6.42% 7.42%

76 89 115 187 241 218 381 242 44 200 570 195 409 58 1,295 196 143 1,111 222 505 605 37 282 17 1,548 140 324 1,181 188 1,310

42 80 53 158 165 183 171 123 32 143 398 122 273 43 657 110 61 649 156 234 364 26 200 12 892 112 97 733 90 706

2045 Population Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨ 23

£ ¤

Montrose

Clio

57 O P

Flushing Twp

57 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp Mt Morris

13 O P 475

§ ¦ ¨ 75

§ ¦ ¨

15 O P

£ ¤

Flint Twp

Davison Twp

LAPEER COUNTY

Clayton Twp

Flint

Davison

§ ¦ ¨

21 P O

Lennon

Burton

54 O P Swartz Creek

121

P O

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

Flint Twp

15 O P Grand Blanc Twp

Mundy Twp

Atlas Twp

Goodrich

Grand Blanc

Gaines Argentine Twp

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

Fenton Twp

2010 Percent Vacant

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Flushing

£ ¤ Linden

Less then 6% 6% to 9.9% 10% to 14% Greater than 14%

Fenton

2.5 LIVINGSTON COUNTY

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

Population Change from 2000 to 2010 Census Area Name Linden City Goodrich Village Grand Blanc Township Mundy Township Fenton Township Swartz Creek City Fenton City Davison Township Richfield Township Clio City Argentine Township Gaines Township Flushing Township Atlas Township Gaines Village Montrose City Vienna Township Flushing City Grand Blanc City ClaytonTownship Forest Township Burton City Montrose Township Otisville Village Mt. Morris City Flint Township Davison City Mt. Morris Township Genesee Township Thetford Township Growth: 10% and over Growth: 0 to 9.9% Loss: -0.1% to -4.9% Loss: -5% and higher loss

Summary of Percent Population Change High Growth High Growth High Growth High Growth High Growth High Growth High Growth High Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Medium Growth Mild Loss Mild Loss Mild Loss Mild Loss Mild Loss High Loss High Loss High Loss High Loss High Loss

Percent Change 39.5% 37.5% 25.8% 23.7% 19.9% 12.9% 11.0% 10.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.0% 5.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% -0.5% -1.1% -1.8% -2.0% -3.7% -5.1% -6.6% -9.4% -10.5% -14.8%

Change 1,130 507 7,681 2,891 2,584 656 1,164 1,853 560 163 392 315 410 229 14 38 147 41 34 28 -18 -347 -112 -18 -117 -1,724 -363 -2,224 -2,535 -1,228

2045 Population Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨ 23

£ ¤

Montrose

Clio

57 O P

Flushing Twp

57 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp Mt Morris

13 O P 475

§ ¦ ¨ 75

§ ¦ ¨

15 O P

£ ¤

Flint Twp

Davison Twp

LAPEER COUNTY

Clayton Twp

Flint

Davison

§ ¦ ¨

P O

Lennon

Burton

54 O P Swartz Creek

121

P O

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

Flint Twp

15 O P Grand Blanc Twp

Mundy Twp

Atlas Twp

Goodrich

Grand Blanc

Gaines Argentine Twp

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

Fenton Twp

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Flushing

£ ¤ Linden

Population Change from 2000 to 2010 Census 10% and over 0% to 9.9% -0.1% to -4.9% -5% to -15% Greater than -15%

Fenton

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

Historic Genesee County Census Populations Local Unit Argentine Township Atlas Township Burton City Clayton Township Clio City Davison City Davison Township Fenton Township Fenton City Flint Township Flint City Flushing Township Flushing City Forest Township Gaines Township Genesee Township Grand Blanc Township Grand Blanc City Linden City Montrose Township Montrose City Mount Morris City Mount Morris Township Mundy Township Richfield Township Swartz Creek City Thetford Township Vienna Township Gaines Village Goodrich Village Otisville Village Genesee County

Summary of Population Trends Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Flat Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Flat/Negative Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Flat/Negative Growth Since 1980 Flat/Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Flat/Negative Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Positive Growth Since 1980 Negative Growth Since 1980

Pop 1980

Pop 1990

4,180 4,096 29,976 7,269 2,669 6,087 13,708 9,570 8,098 35,405 159,611 9,246 8,624 3,573 4,769 25,065 24,413 6,848 2,174 6,164 1,706 3,246 27,928 10,786 6,895 5,013 8,499 12,914 440 795 682 450,449

4,651 4,635 27,437 7,368 2,629 5,693 14,671 10,073 8,434 34,072 140,925 9,223 8,542 3,685 4,964 24,093 25,392 7,760 2,407 6,236 1,811 3,292 25,198 11,536 7,271 4,851 8,333 13,210 427 916 724 430,459

Pop 2000 6,521 5,904 30,346 7,553 2,483 5,536 17,722 12,968 10,582 33,653 124,943 10,230 8,348 3,856 6,125 24,116 29,827 8,242 2,861 6,336 1,619 3,203 23,725 12,191 8,170 5,102 8,277 13,108 366 1,353 882 436,148

Pop 2010 6,913 6,133 29,999 7,581 2,646 5,173 19,575 15,552 11,746 31,929 102,434 10,640 8,389 3,838 6,440 21,581 37,508 8,276 3,991 6,224 1,657 3,086 21,501 15,082 8,730 5,758 7,049 13,255 380 1,860 864 425,790

City of Flint Draft Master Plan Population Change 2000 ‐2010 Map Page 13

2045 Employment Projections Methodology Report

2014 Base Year Employment Data 2045 Employment Projections Methodology Report

April 2016

Prepared by the Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission Staff 1

Executive Summary The overall employment in Genesee County is projected to improve steadily over the next 30 years. With significant improvements planned on the transportation system around the Flint-Genesee metropolitan region, communities can expect to see the creation of new employment and expansion of businesses. The purpose of this update is to establish 2014 as the base year for the 2045 Employment Projections, which is the first year of the new Genesee County Transportation Model. In calculating the projections for Genesee County, staff began with 2010 employment figures, validated through the 2040 Long Range Transportation Planâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (LRTP) Socioeconomic Projections. To project forward, staff used the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) growth rates for each 5-year period and interpolated the yearly growth rate, per employment sector & traffic analysis zone, for each year out to 2045. From 2041-2045, REMI growth rates were held constant. To increase the accuracy of the projections, the 2013 employment data was validated against the 2013 Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data. Any locally significant economic impacts were applied directly to year, sector and traffic analysis zone in the final step. Table 1 reflects the final 2045 Employment Projections for Genesee County.

Genesee County 2045 Employment Projections by Sector

Employment Sector 2014

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

Manufacturing Other Transportation and Public Utilities Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Services Government

13,090 10,487 5,362 19,981 24,602 6,277 89,533 22,210

14,309 12,023 5,822 21,523 23,701 6,014 103,929 22,836

13,431 12,068 5,823 21,114 23,200 5,970 109,972 23,107

12,504 11,670 6,134 20,184 22,373 5,750 115,393 23,602

12,013 11,416 6,387 19,787 22,072 5,556 118,523 23,789

11,547 11,168 6,645 19,411 21,780 5,372 121,743 23,977

Total

191,542

209,887

214,685

217,610

219,543

221,643

Table 1

The following document will take readers through a step-by-step approach, including methodology used by staff during projections. Graphs and maps are provided at the conclusion of this report depicting the individual and overall trends from 2010 to 2045.

Step One: Calculating Preliminary Employment Figures Preliminary Employment Data Methodology The Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission (GCMPC) utilized the projected 2013 employment figures, originating from the validated 2010 base year of the 2040 Long Range Transportation Planâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (LRTP) Socioeconomic Projections, as the preliminary starting year of 2045 projections. The first year of the new Genesee County Transportation Model will be 2014. GCMPC staff chose the year 2013 as the next significant year to validate the employment projection data to as it is the latest year among available, confirmed datasets. The calibrated Transportation Model that was utilized during the development of the 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), supplied staff with geographically located employers in Genesee County, their number of employees, and industry codes. GCMPC staff coded the employees, based on the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes, into eight sectors using the same categories and definitions as the previous employment estimates from the 2040 LRTP. Results of this report will assist with the development of the new Transportation Model, to be used during the development of the 2045 LRTP. Table 2 on the next page shows GCMPC sectors and their comparable SIC and NAICS codes to allow for the data to be easily comparable between plans.

GCMPC Model Employment Sectors & Corresponding SIC and NAICS Codes GCMPC Sectors

1. Manufacturing

2. Other

3. Transportation, Warehousing & Public Utilities 4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 5. Retail Trade 6. Wholesale Trade

SIC Categories

Durables Non-Durables Mining Construction Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing Farm Transportation &Public Utilities Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade

NAICS Codes 33 31-32 21 23

8. Government

Manufacturing Manufacturing Mining Construction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

11 11 48-49 22 52 53 44-45 42 51 54 55

7. Service

NAICS Titles

56 61 62 71 72

Service

81 92 92 92

State and Local Federal Civilian Federal Military

Table 2

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Transportation and Warehousing Utilities Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Information Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative, Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration Public Administration Public Administration

Step Two: Comparing Preliminary 2013 Employment Figures To increase the accuracy of Genesee County’s preliminary 2013 employment data; staff took into account other available data sources as illustrated in Table 3. Comparison of Genesee County Employment Data to Other Data Sources by Industry Preliminary Census Woods Employment Five-Year BEA & Poole Employment Sector Data for Estimates 2013 2013 GCMPC 2013 2013 type of code

Manufacturing Other Transportation and Public Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Services Government Total

NAICS

10,434 10,423

NAICS

13,065 10,289

4,601 16,314 23,939 5,774 92,553 24,355 188,393

5,350 19,770 24,773 6,278 87,984 22,316 189,825

189,147

Table 3

Definitions of Data Sources: GCMPC Projections 2013 – The Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission employment data for 2013 was calculated using REMI growth factors to project the 2010 data forward to 2040. Census: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2013 – This data is the 2009-2013 Selected Economic Characteristics from the U.S. Census website. Woods & Poole 2013 – Woods & Poole Economics, Incorporated is an independent firm that specializes in long-term economic and demographic projections at the county level. This dataset is based on the NAICS code system. The historical data year for this dataset is 2013. BEA 2013 – Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce and provides regional economic information by industry. The dataset is based on the NAICS code system. The historical data year for this dataset is 2012

Step Three: Finalizing Preliminary Employment Figures Staff determined that the 2013 Genesee County employment data was slightly low overall when compared to other available datasets and would need to be factored to reduce the gap in total employment. The finance, insurance, real estate employment sector in particular held far less individuals employed than any other dataset. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data originates from the U.S. Department of Commerce and provides regional economic information by employment sector. Of the datasets available, the BEA dataset seemed most consistent with the preliminary GCMPC 2013 projections and is from a reliable source. Additionally, the use of BEA is consistent with the previous employment projections methodology. For these reasons, the BEA dataset was used to validate the 2013 GCMPC employment data. The percent change was calculated between the 2013 Genesee County employment data to the BEA 2013 data. The resulting factors were applied to each of the 639 TAZ in the model for each of the eight employment sectors. After factoring the adjusted employment estimates for each sector, employment figures are within a few employees of the BEA 2013 totals (see Table 4). BEA Adjusted 2013 Genesee County Employment Data

Employment Sector Manufacturing Other Transportation and Public Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Services Government Total

Preliminary Employment BEA Data for 2013 GCMPC 2013 10,434 13,065 10,423 10,289 4,601 16,314 23,939 5,774 92,553 24,355 188,393

5,350 19,770 24,773 6,278 87,984 22,316 189,825 Table 4

% Difference BEA to GCMPC 2013 2,631 0.2522 -134 -0.0129

Difference BEA to GCMPC 2013

749 3,456 834 504 -4,569 -2,039 1,432

0.1628 0.2118 0.0348 0.0873 -0.0494 -0.0837

Adjusted Employment Data for GCMPC 2013 13,082 10,272 5,324 19,758 24,722 6,276 88,029 22,323 189,786

Difference new data to BEA 2013 17 -17 -26 -12 -51 -2 45 7 -39

Employment adjustments following 2013 are further discussed in step four. Table 5 shows the 2013 employment figures in Genesee County by employment sector. This data will be used to calculate future employment estimates for the 2045 Genesee County Long Range Transportation Plan and the new Urban Travel Demand Model. Final 2013 Genesee County Employment Data 2013 Genesee County Employment 13,082 10,272 5,324 19,758 24,722 6,276 88,029 22,323 189,786

Sector Manufacturing Other Transportation and Public Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Services Government Total Table 5

Step Four:

Projecting Employment Figures out to 2045

Genesee County 2045 Employment Projections Methodology As previously stated, the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) data includes a countywide total for employment and by employment sector in 5-year increments out to the year 2040. For use in our employment projections we calculated growth rates for each 5-year period and interpolated the yearly growth rate, per employment sector, for each year from 2011-2045. Since the REMI data is only projected out to 2040, the growth rates were held constant from 2041-2045. The calculated growth rates are shown in Table 6 below. REMI 5-year Growth Rates 2011-2045

Employment Sector Manufacturing Other Transportation & Public Utilities Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Services Government Total

GCMPC Adjusted 2013 13,082 10,272

20112015 5-year change 0.0040 0.1058

20162020 5-year change* -0.0271 0.0476

20212025 5-year change -0.0447 0.0080

20262030 5-year change -0.0333 -0.0131

20312035 5-year change -0.0394 -0.0274

203620412040 2045 5-year 5-year change change^ -0.0408 -0.0408 -0.0253 -0.0253

5,324

0.0379

0.0160

0.0007

0.0197

0.0371

0.0426

19,758 24,722 6,276 88,029 22,323 189,786

0.0579 -0.0251 0.0033 0.0858 -0.0250

0.0373 -0.0088 -0.0049 0.0775 0.0606

-0.0201 -0.0227 -0.0113 0.0206 0.0125

-0.0264 -0.0271 -0.0195 0.0201 0.0099

-0.0205 -0.0116 -0.0248 0.0288 0.0125

-0.0211 -0.0153 -0.0377 0.0274 0.0083

*Adjusted REMI 2016-2020 Growth Rate applied due to local economic impact Table 6 ^Held REMI 2041-2045 Growth Rate constant

To determine the accuracy of the new dataset and as a validation measure, Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission (GCMPC) staff attempted to contact all employers with over 100 employees to determine if the number of employees represented in the dataset were accurate, and if the employees were located in the correct location. Not all employers could be reached or were willing to provide the information. Out of the 180 employers contacted, any reported differences to their employee numbers or to their locations was corrected in the employment database. GCMPC staff made a special attempt to contact the top 10 employers in Genesee County to get accurate estimates of their employment. These were also adjusted to the dataset. Some duplicate entries were removed from the dataset and some employers were no longer operating businesses in Genesee County. Prior to finalizing the employment projections, staff took into account any significant increase or decrease in jobs that were publicized in recent news articles or revealed through local development plans. Approximately 4,100 jobs would be added between 8

years six and eleven of the operations phase (Economic Impact of Genesys Health Park Campus Expansion Plans, prepared by the Anderson Economic Group, LLC, 2012). These jobs and others were located to the exact employment sector, TAZ, and applied to the nearest projected year ending in 5 or 0. Facilities built within the Health Park Campus will not be limited to hospital functions alone but is proposed to include an area for research & development, a learning institution, and senior living complexes. The Genesee County Freight and Connectivity Study is projecting for the Genesys expansion (in part with the proposed Dort Highway Extension) to bring 15,000 support jobs to the region (Genesee County Freight and Connectivity Study, prepared by the Corradino Group of Michigan, Inc., 2011). Based on the location of the health park campus, staff felt the number of support jobs created within Genesee County would be less than the projected 15,000. After recalculating to account for the location, approximately 7,300 support jobs is projected within Genesee County. Since the exact location and amount of jobs in each TAZ is unknown, the 7,300 jobs were proportionally applied based on the existing distribution of employment in each TAZ in REMI year 2020. Staff was able to calculate a new 5-year growth rate from 2016-2020 and apply the corresponding growth rates to each employment sector resulting in Genesee Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s final employment projections. After all adjustments and calculations were complete, the jobs from each traffic analysis zones, in each of the eight employment sectors were tallied to create the 2045 Genesee County Employment Projections. Genesee County 2045 Employment Projections by Sector

Employment Sector 2014

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

Manufacturing Other Transportation and Public Utilities Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Services Government

13,090 10,487 5,362 19,981 24,602 6,277 89,533 22,210

14,309 12,023 5,822 21,523 23,701 6,014 103,929 22,836

13,431 12,068 5,823 21,114 23,200 5,970 109,972 23,107

12,504 11,670 6,134 20,184 22,373 5,750 115,393 23,602

12,013 11,416 6,387 19,787 22,072 5,556 118,523 23,789

11,547 11,168 6,645 19,411 21,780 5,372 121,743 23,977

Total

191,542

209,887

214,685

217,610

219,543

221,643

Table 7

Conclusion While the manufacturing, wholesale, finance, and retail trade sectors are projected to experience a gradual decline in employment, the services sector is projecting a substantial growth in the next 30 years. Following a recession and overall decrease in jobs prior to 2010, Genesee County has and is projected to continue to see modest signs of improvement in years to come. As stated in the Flint & Genesee County Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, “to begin to replace the jobs lost, we must understand economic development can no longer happen by ‘chance’, but rather, through deliberate actions and strategies on the part of Genesee County and its component communities.” Looking forward, Genesee County’s total employment is projected to increase and we can conclude that job creation will vary between employment sectors. Percent Change of Genesee County Employment Sectors Employment Sector

2014

2045

Manufacturing

13,090

11,547

-11.8%

Other

10,487

11,168

6.5%

5,362

6,645

23.9%

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

19,981

19,411

-2.9%

Retail Trade

24,602

21,780

-11.5%

6,277

5,372

-14.4%

Services

89,533 121,743

36.0%

Government

22,210

Transportation and Public Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Table 8

23,977

% Change

8.0%

Trend

2014 vs. 2045 Total Employment Change by Sector 121,743

140,000

89,533

120,000

80,000

2014

60,000

2045

23,977

22,210 6,277

5,372

21,780

24,602

19,981

19,411

6,645

11,168

5,362

20,000

10,487

11,547

40,000

13,090

# of Employees

100,000

0 Manufacturing

Other

Transportation and Public Utilities

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

Retail Trade

Employment Sector

Wholesale Trade

Services

Government

2014 vs. 2045 Percent Employment by Sector 60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 Manufacturing

Other

Transportation and Finance, Insurance Public Utilities and Real Estate 2014

Retail Trade 2045

Wholesale Trade

Services

Government

Total Employment # of Employees

230,000 220,000

209,887

214,685

217,610

219,543

221,643

2035

2040

2045

12,504

12,013

11,547

2035

2040

2045

210,000 200,000

191,542

190,000 180,000 170,000 2014

2020

2025

Year

# of Employees

Manufacturing 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -

13,090

2014

14,039

2020

13,431

2025

Year

Other # of Employees

12,500

12,023

12,068

12,000

11,670

11,500 11,000

11,416

11,168

10,487

10,500 10,000 9,500 2014

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

Year

Transportation and Public Utilities # of Employees

7,000 6,000

5,362

5,823

6,134

6,387

6,645

5,822

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2014

Year

# of Employees

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 22,000 21,500 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 18,000

21,523 21,114 20,184

19,981

19,787 19,411

2014

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

Year

Retail Trade # of Employees

25,000

24,602 23,701

24,000

23,200

23,000

22,373

22,072

22,000

21,780

21,000 20,000 2014

2020

2025

2035

Year

2040

2045

# of Employees

Wholesale Trade 6,277

6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800

6,014

5,970 5,750

5,556 5,372

2014

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

Year

Services # of Employees

140,000 120,000 100,000

109,972

115,393

118,523

121,743

103,929

2020

2025

2035

2040

2045

89,533

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 2014

Year

Government # of Employees

24,500 24,000

23,602

23,500 22,836

23,000 22,500

23,789

23,977

23,107

22,210

22,000

21,500 21,000 2014

2020

2025

2035

Year

2040

2045

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

108

£ ¤

144

347

575

P O

276

178

283

206 224

714

Clio

140

263

Flushing Twp

654

115

P O 323

123

113

273

114

168

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

384 35 16

120 258 67 313 19 353 377 162 23 455 161 29

Clayton Twp

867 1381

267

269

778

969

945

Flint Twp

384

396

21 P O

Lennon

165

133

348

319

§ ¦ ¨

Gaines Twp

120 63

504

342

431

189

664

165

435

379

357

148

245

315

255

171

121

P O

950

128

Fenton Twp

102

165

274 121

66 642

497

868

189

462

426

229

376

106

148

328

407

741

379

186

273

236

38 139

273

198

196 225 196 685 1110 898 193 68 267 23

289

448

734

731 1030

325

411

272

182

132

335

123 891

Court

423

164

169

141

269 1005

308

840 892

204

162

307

777

237

101

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

254

131

134

150

Atlas Twp

170

1695

Grand Blanc 195

382 545

48 120

1618

248

123 190

307

251

Goodrich 841

740

249 306

143

128

354

15 O P

613

360

697

207

§ ¦ ¨ 86

116

101

340

4303

751

216 878

180

1103

357

283

819

207

1137

966

324

385

448 135

215

403

156 142

§ ¦ ¨

174

154

OAKLAND COUNTY

2014 Total Employment 1 - 200 201 - 500 501 - 1000

1001 - 2000 2001 - 3000 3001 - 4303

123 = Number of employees

257

203

25 Burton

411

550 437 115 322

Davison Twp

115

Grand Blanc Twp

Davison

152

Fenton

337 550

408

135

148

210

Davison

178

0 39

232

918

129

152

592

981

332

15 O P

314

259

578

1087 932

743

592

507

147

141

328

P O

322 250 163 309 131

423

239

135

11 58

349

455

Flint

164

249

147

700

940

107

211

194 372 282

466 1184

£ ¤

183

108

Linden

210

587

1180

220

942

344

197

519

290

315

208

1617

Argentine Twp

167

Flint Twp

5 17

26 0

Gaines

124

258

1328

27 13

161

429

158

3497

166

283

85 78

100 112 110

72 5

267

Richfield Twp

100

161

563

672

Mundy Twp

143

124

578

605

542 1310 109 237

0 17

310

2150 115 956

915

370

323

668 443

221

658

Swartz Creek

680

1795 252 1370

490

498 3233 109 2 11 261 349 682 72 244 Robert T Longway 3 1030 41 829 335 49 9 1279 134 220 737 312 0 97 51 20 382 406 195 165 80 129 0 72 3 0 65 141 1338 0 27 496 133 10 193 1083 1065 249 2 14 34 082 2348 2329 178 397 10 0 8 259 27 95 181 62 97 72 499 405 65 387 225 316 90 40 265 78 277 659 847 86 237 79 166 260 130 697 297 115 862 543 94 54 464 50 121 1906

1174

391

439

123 385

152

406

220 134

246

704

218 146

11 245

488

353

428

213 209

125

£ ¤

1143

336 87

337

1112

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing

101

475

§ ¦ ¨

161

291

289

255

320

Mt Morris

13 O P

141

105

Genesee Twp

130

OAKLAND COUNTY

Otisville

153

Mt. Morris Twp

105

106

111 15

51 23

122

LAPEER COUNT Y

153

528

§ ¦ ¨

150 160

Montrose

Otter Lake

310

Averill

SAGINAW COUNTY

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Center

Montrose Twp

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

136

SAGINAW COUNTY

624

§ ¦ ¨

155

157

£ ¤

168

630

P O

336

215

329

Clio

178

Flushing Twp

703

132

122

P O 351

143

136

281

137

197

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

440 43 17

148 332 88 353 21 395 409 206 24 494 176 26

Clayton Twp

1514

Flint Twp 23

337

1200

121

856

1154

727

267

431

225

169

156

499

21 P O

Lennon

199

159

356

270

§ ¦ ¨

Gaines Twp

131 77

355 572

105

373

488

240 196

755

196

459

470

296

163

277

369

323

207

121

P O

1100

152

123

187

310 145

67 807

590

907

224

512

495

246

162

262

429

388

705

393

404

490 211

124

178

376

262

485

814

151

1067 1208

378

42 175

293

297

267 184 741 1171 846 210 84 325 24

1087

301

190

263

513

890

384

336

786

840

265

183

379

974

138

207

279

166

209 316

984

262

27 Burton

244

152

1109

224

369 1267

1375

353

850

260

§ ¦ ¨ 476

323 172

1016

1068

249

103

751 135

Atlas Twp 161

127

198

393

393 2024

Grand Blanc 215

237

10497

894

155

1907

276 614

284

127 207

353

309

Goodrich 1078

908

271 364

407

142

714

468

15 O P

230

254

440

174 171

§ ¦ ¨

218

196

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Total Employment 1 - 200 201 - 500 501 - 1,000

1,001 - 3,000 3,001 - 6,000 6,001 - 10,497

123 = Number of employees

476

618 492 142 18 374 6

287

125

Grand Blanc Twp

Davison Twp

222

Davison

181

Fenton

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

476

208

155

165

228

167

658

421 618

331

15 O P

353

308

713

277

574

230

225 36

170

802

649

1255

P O

429

396 207 317 250 160

668

11 60

240

131

206

198

555

Flint

942

1030

123

190

256

231 425 313

117

501

1421

£ ¤

202

100

Linden

263

719

1365

222

Fenton Twp

773

402

227

546

370

362

113

235

1785

Argentine Twp

204

Flint Twp

5 19

33 0

Gaines

153

261

1639

36 14

194

2848

302

Richfield Twp

204

103 87

180

327

179 126 127

104

82 5

468

104

147

625

818

Mundy Twp

164

158 487

624

786

632 1542 109 333

0 19

262

2086 127 993 1020

429

354

799 440

742

734

Swartz Creek

11 225

1476

1807 253 1470

581

123 2 13 309 392 755 67 296 403 2318 3 501 1133 36 998 60 1476 171 240 816 362 0 11 108 61 22 433 198 525 244 89 151 0 95 0 3 80 174 1705 700 0 31 153 10 230 1359 306 1319 2 16 44 073 2162 2550 189 599 10 329 12 0 36 111 222 72 109 72 500 492 84 378 267 360 108 329 49 281 733 943 102 282 79 207 301 168 734 337 144 1005 669 115 54 549 51 132 2069 186

513

344

46 113

309

842

239

474

11 316

553

253

482 271

238

151

£ ¤

1287

412 96

389

1223

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing

122

475

§ ¦ ¨

178

339

332

258

377

Mt Morris

13 O P

167

108

Genesee Twp

145

OAKLAND COUNTY

Otisville

170

Mt. Morris Twp

113

138 30

104

228 257

784

61 300

106

145

438

Otter Lake

510

159

Montrose

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Montrose Twp

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨ 23

£ ¤

Montrose

Clio

57 O P

Flushing Twp

57 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp

Mt Morris

13 P O 475

§ ¦ ¨ 75

§ ¦ ¨

15 P O

£ ¤

Flint Twp

Davison Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Clayton Twp

Flint

Davison

§ ¦ ¨

P O

Lennon

Burton

54 O P Swartz Creek

121

P O

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

Flint Twp

15 O P Grand Blanc Twp

Mundy Twp

Atlas Twp

Goodrich Grand Blanc

Gaines

Argentine Twp

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

Fenton Twp

Percent Change in Employment 2014 - 2045

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Flushing

£ ¤ Linden

-45% - -25% -24.99% - -10% -9.99% - 0%

Fenton

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

0.01% - 10% 10.01% - 25% 25.01% and above

+/- 123 = Change in Employment 2

0 Miles

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Otter Lake

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨ 23

Montrose

£ ¤

102

156

Clio

57 O P

Flushing Twp

167

631

Mt. Morris Twp

13 P O

201

1067

Otisville

Richfield Twp

164 883

475

§ ¦ ¨

403

Lennon

57 O P

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing

Clayton Twp

119

Genesee Twp

Mt Morris

15 P O

£ ¤

Flint

Flint Twp

208

Davison Twp

2998

P O

352 69

1329 54 O P

§ ¦ ¨ 710

Burton

Swartz Creek

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

434

Davison

7818

121

P O

Flint Twp

15 O P Grand Blanc Twp

Mundy Twp

Atlas Twp

100 54

407

1046

Goodrich

295

Grand Blanc

8583 75

Gaines

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

Fenton Twp

Argentine Twp

£ ¤ 218

Linden

176

Increase in Employment 2014 - 2045

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Montrose Twp

321

0 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 and above

Fenton

123

951

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

0 Miles

= Increase in Employment 2

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

5 10

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨

Montrose

£ ¤

Clio

P O

6 27

Otisville

3 12

Flushing Twp

Mt. Morris Twp 31

Mt Morris

13 O P

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp 1

475

§ ¦ ¨ § ¦ ¨

182

Clayton Twp

1 58

12 11

Swartz Creek 223

Gaines Twp

§ ¦ ¨

121

P O

2305

12 7

15 P O Atlas Twp

82 34

204

Goodrich

Gaines

588

£ ¤

Linden 4

1 4

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

244

2045 Manufacturing Employment 1 - 25 26 - 100 101 - 200

52 1

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

201 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 - 2551

123 = Number of employees

Fenton 1

6 1

219

9 3

Fenton Twp

Grand Blanc

Argentine Twp

§ ¦ ¨

123

3 17

Grand Blanc Twp

725

Burton

54 P O

Davison

3 4

181

325

Flint Twp 4

4 11

2551

517 3 3 3 1 13

Mundy Twp

3 4

27 8

21 O P

Lennon

Davison Twp 1

711

140

Flint Twp

Flint

15 O P

£ ¤

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

LAPEER COUNT Y

Flushing

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨

£ ¤

P O

Flushing Twp

§ ¦ ¨

144

Clayton Twp 15

2 20

21 O P

Lennon

27 32

59 4

§ ¦ ¨

Gaines Twp

121

Flint Twp

1 9

16 89

313

P O

Gaines

Fenton Twp

Argentine Twp

Linden 21

7 42

£ ¤

2 27

19 19

13 82

§ ¦ ¨ 19

2 20

Atlas Twp

106

Goodrich 1

4 16

36 19

2 7

23 7

15 O P

32 35

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Other Employment 1 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 100

101 - 200 201 - 300 301 - 380

123 = Number of employees

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

27 54

Fenton 9

Davison 13

144

9 27

Davison Twp

Grand Blanc Twp

13 2

3 Burton

187

191

115

Grand Blanc

15 O P

104

112

1 1

213

8 61 910 12 27 20

P O

Mundy Twp

2 9

22 2

14 9 13

9 10 34 4 51 14 9

Swartz Creek 9

3 8

21 13

44 102 4

4 18

7 32

9 23

Flint

153

1 2

Flint Twp 9

£ ¤

380

Richfield Twp

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

2 4

475

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing

13 19

Genesee Twp

Mt Morris

13 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

7 4

Otisville

9 16

7 Clio

P O

Otter Lake

Montrose

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Montrose Twp

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

2 2

£ ¤

Montrose 2 15

Clio

57 P O

48 2

Flushing Twp

13 O P 475

§ ¦ ¨ § ¦ ¨ 45

206

Clayton Twp

14 60

210

121

P O

10 7

Gaines Twp

Swartz Creek

§ ¦ ¨

3 73

24 1

Flint Twp

2 18

Grand Blanc Twp 175

Atlas Twp 35

18 35 5

15 O P

Burton 27

§ ¦ ¨

54 O P

657

31 40

291

Mundy Twp

23 27 15 2

Davison

3 124

611

Davison Twp

984

21 O P

Lennon

40 27

7 5

P O

Flint

1 1

Flint Twp

£ ¤

53 32

Flushing

Richfield Twp 2

Mt Morris

Goodrich

Grand Blanc

Gaines

§ ¦ ¨

Argentine Twp

Fenton Twp

£ ¤

Linden

1 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 75

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

76 - 100 101 - 250 251 - 984

123 = Number of employees

Fenton

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Transportation & Public Utilities Employment

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Genesee Twp

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

LAPEER COUNT Y

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

SAGINAW COUNTY

Otter Lake

11 13

§ ¦ ¨

38 6

Montrose

£ ¤

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

P O

Clio

110

P O

8 69

Otisville

Mt Morris

15 5

§ ¦ ¨

282

Clayton Twp 8

21 P O

Lennon

46 88 17

23 77

Swartz Creek 21 48

§ ¦ ¨

18 11

8 17

219

71 83

120

Mundy Twp

253

121

Flint Twp 32

297

6 4

P O

33 192

17 5

122

157

11 88

23 11 20 21

74 109

Grand Blanc Twp 25

§ ¦ ¨ 23

123

Goodrich

321

92 160

Grand Blanc 2

Atlas Twp

97 88

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

1 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 75

76 - 100 101 - 250 251 - 3217

123 = Number of employees

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

203

20 206 23 6

132

15 O P

Fenton 206

317

Burton

2045 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Employment

OAKLAND COUNTY

£ ¤ 17

Davison

Linden

114

Fenton Twp

Argentine Twp

123

Davison Twp

Gaines

4 24

6 44

238

124

110 1

32 170

11 25

15 O P

65 18 5 4 6 28 81 21 8

P O

2 94

35 8

183 19 1 6

Flint

129

5 6

180

85 5

163

114

127 725

132

156

13 38

151

Gaines Twp

Flint Twp

£ ¤

135 67

11 91

Flushing

475

§ ¦ ¨

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

15 2

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp

13 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Flushing Twp

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

31 25

§ ¦ ¨

9 89

Montrose

£ ¤

161

P O

Clio

166

P O 56

Flushing Twp

£ ¤

36 71

206

Clayton Twp

Flint Twp 11

225

§ ¦ ¨

Gaines Twp

47 1

58 112

Swartz Creek

11 400

1266

678

41 115

48 7

111

121

P O

Flint Twp 85

588

14 75

181

84 10

10 137

Fenton Twp

67 18

27 13

648

11 Burton

202

711 323

44 8

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

224 5

180 58

211

158

§ ¦ ¨ 9

19 9

15 O P

Atlas Twp 1

8 4

111

Goodrich 2

151

§ ¦ ¨

37 39

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Retail Employment 1 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 200

201 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 - 1266

123 = Number of employees

16 48 21 25

Fenton 48

Davison

Davison Twp

194

112

361

Grand Blanc

£ ¤ 2

Linden

1 3

24 400

Argentine Twp

94 357

667

Gaines

1 4

Grand Blanc Twp

3 18

8 1

123

173

100

2 11

123

P O

15 O P

19 9 21 8

Flint

3 66

239

13 13

Mundy Twp

210

476

117

203

21 P O

100

16 36 14 18 123 1 4 11 3 3 18 20 6 3 7 21 8 27 29 4 3 3 122 25 7 3 3 87 4 2 9 9 3 9 3 14 29 27 36 24 114 38 21 11 10 16 18 18 32 16 31 44 225 36 36 154 63 32 54 19 41 492

106

100

43 3

Lennon

7 7

14 106

163

143

Richfield Twp

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing 67

475

§ ¦ ¨

48 21

Genesee Twp

Mt. Morris Twp

Mt Morris

13 O P

Otisville

23 11

14 11

135

3 1

LAPEER COUNT Y

SAGINAW COUNTY

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

Otter Lake

£ ¤

Montrose 1

Clio

P O

57 P O

Otisville

Flushing Twp

Mt. Morris Twp 29

Mt Morris

13 P O

Clayton Twp

Flint Twp 9

P O

11 2

4 2

Gaines Twp

Linden 8

3 7

3 13

2 3

Burton

15 O P

Grand Blanc Twp

Atlas Twp

1 14

4 8

Goodrich

§ ¦ ¨

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Wholesale Trade Employment 1 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 75

76 - 100 101 - 200 201 - 282

123 = Number of employees

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

16 28

Fenton

1 3

§ ¦ ¨

282

Davison Twp

£ ¤

Fenton Twp

Argentine Twp

Davison

Gaines

Grand Blanc

54 O P

13 207

116

120

Flint Twp 1

121

P O

Mundy Twp

7 21 2 1 13 4

115 23

Swartz Creek

§ ¦ ¨

121

3 25

151

3 54

Flint

15 P O

Lennon

3 2 1

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

£ ¤

§ ¦ ¨

475

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

106

SAGINAW COUNTY

387

§ ¦ ¨

£ ¤

123

340

P O

243

167

236

201 215

330

Clio

236

P O 189

Flushing Twp 36

216

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

287 26 2

§ ¦ ¨

95 45

127 88 72 204

315

£ ¤

614 218

180

776

221 781

111

Clayton Twp 294

200

714

481

Flint Twp 14

309

65 75

126

152

§ ¦ ¨

Gaines Twp

242 363

715

443 688

102

156

232

404

142

284

296

153

78 32

145

121

P O

445

265

210

453

703

116 1010

Fenton Twp

Linden

182 91

16 712

536

102

229

136

267

269

112

269

183

217

498

156

215

379 767

179 112

146

389

184

112

369 368 220 125 65 267 3

109

159

349

232

258

102

312

569

121

189 122

216

262

114

50 13 Burton

166

270

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

1122

100

530

221

§ ¦ ¨ 400

105

11 269

1272

Grand Blanc 89

118

146

10485

11 37

514

187

15 O P

Atlas Twp

259

140

1320

172 419

123

757

42 87

240

149

Goodrich 1051

63 130

§ ¦ ¨

205

175

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Service Employment 1 - 100 101 - 200 201 - 500

501 - 1000 1001 - 2000 2001 - 10,485

123 = Number of employees

325

354 167 106 172

79 387

776

157

120

189

173 255

127

Davison 159

Grand Blanc Twp 123

Davison Twp

141

Fenton

365 354 589

344

262

157

105

663

389

552

200 50

114

124

61 17

166

172

320

£ ¤ 60

189

162

508

285

324

327

15 O P

235

546

142

P O

3 8

123

327 171 47 91 119

217

118

168

438

Flint

229 399 112

540

230

1162

313

176

5 3

Richfield Twp

224

Argentine Twp

255

151 221

210

342

1399

Gaines

165

151

143

33 2

112

Flint Twp

162

268

203

79 4

37 3

1109 1

222

160

220

264

514

481

Mundy Twp

269

190

368

632

235

199

475

939

67 331

Swartz Creek

231 259 2 10 3 220 184 284 11 3 250 34 344 452 50 720 4057 11 10 1289 144 112 466 13 175 514 219 99 51 77 95 510 700 120 49 3 8 77 83 59 130 2 1080 1306 223 44 14 88 47 2 92 171 2 253 10 294 12 30 60 160 50 53 15 141 398 84 114 204 172 78 33 294 60 231 162 226 70 13 162 210 76 167 277 180 128 704 584 76 54 373 9 72 1276

389

65 608

379

100

215

21 O P

Lennon

142 450

1321

437

272

142

465

157

637

215

5 306

318

112

293 51

239

§ ¦ ¨

Flushing

475

199

121

200

171

102

Genesee Twp

121

Mt Morris

13 O P

Mt. Morris Twp

Otisville

OAKLAND COUNTY

114

159

33 111

361

Otter Lake

415

Montrose

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Montrose Twp

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

2045 Employment Projections SAGINAW COUNTY

Montrose Twp

TUSCOLA COUNTY

Vienna Twp

Forest Twp

Thetford Twp

SAGINAW COUNTY

§ ¦ ¨

Otter Lake

£ ¤

Montrose 57

198

57 O P

Clio

57 O P

126

Otisville

149

111 136

Mt. Morris Twp

Mt Morris 167

13 O P

281

196

503

Clayton Twp

347

111

258

165

Swartz Creek

Gaines Twp

146

557

500

60 32

121

P O

104

54 O P

622

§ ¦ ¨

171

419

Burton

15 O P

519

Mundy Twp

Flint Twp

189

Davison

Davison Twp

24 1089 466 177 192 144 36 6 163 4 29 75 13 97 2474 1802 24 28

P O

99 4

361

Flint

201

329

Flint Twp

15 O P

121

£ ¤

548

Grand Blanc Twp

Atlas Twp

106

Goodrich

454

Grand Blanc

106

74 54

Gaines 21

§ ¦ ¨

Fenton Twp

Argentine Twp

£ ¤ 32

Linden

121

67 32

1 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 100

217

143

LIVINGSTON COUNTY

101 - 500 501 - 1000 1001 - 2,474

123 = Number of employees

Fenton 13

OAKLAND COUNTY

2045 Government Employment

OAKLAND COUNTY

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

108

1148

§ ¦ ¨

205

166

475

Flushing

§ ¦ ¨

104

Lennon

Richfield Twp

Genesee Twp

LAPEER COUNT Y

Flushing Twp

2.5

1.25

0 Miles

2.5

Genesee County Metropolitan Planning Commission 1101 Beach Street, Room 223 Flint, MI 48502-1470 (810) 257-3010 www.GCMPC.org