Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan Background Report 06 Projections of Population and Households to 2025 September 2010
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Contents
1. Introduction
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2. Fertility and Mortality Rates
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3. Migration Assumptions HNDA Projections 3.1 Review of Recent Migration 3.2 GROS 2006-base projections 3.3 Net Migration for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area as a whole 3.4 Net Migration by Council area 3.5 Migration adjustments for initial years 2008-12 3.6 Comparison with Migration Assumptions 2006 Plan
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4. Population Projection Results
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5. Household Projection Results 5.1 GROS household formation assumptions and recent household change 5.2 Adjustment to household formation assumptions for planning scenario 5.3 Household Projection Results
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Appendix
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Table A1
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Net migration by Council area for 3 Health Board areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008 Table A2.1 Net migration by Component for 3 Health Board areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008 Table A2.2 Trend coefficients by component for different base periods Table A3.1 Net migration (excluding asylum seekers) in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area and Rest of Scotland in 1981-2008 Table A3.2 Derivation of migration assumptions HNDA projection Table A4 Derivation of net migration assumptions by Council area Table A5 Net migration assumptions by Council area for Scenarios A and C – after adjustment for initial years Table A6 Comparison GROS and SDP migration assumptions with assumptions 2006 Plan Table A7 Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component Table A8.1 HNDA lower migration scenario (A) Table A8.2 HNDA planning scenario (C) Table A8.3 2006 Structure Plan Alteration Table A9 Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Age Table A10 Estimated annual changes by household type in 2001-2008 Table A11 Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Table A12 Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area, by Household Type and by Age of Household Representative
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Foreword Projections of Population and Households are part of the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Needs and Demand Assessment (HNDA). The HNDA will be published following the publication of the GCVSDPA Main Issues Report and in light of this a shortened version of the Projections of Population and Households has been made available ahead of the HNDA publication.
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Projections of Population and Households – Description of Assumptions and Results 1. Introduction. This paper reviews recent migration trends for the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (GCV) area, describes the migration assumptions used in the HNDA projections, and reports on the population and household projection results. The migration assumptions take into account (1) the latest view from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) on the demographic prospects for Scotland, as reflected in the population projections for Scotland (2008-base) st published on 21 October 2009, and (2) an assessment of the economic prospects for the GCV area from Oxford Economics in their report “The strategic and economic implications of the recession for Scotland” of May 2009. Two migration scenarios have been defined: - The lower migration scenario, or scenario A, which is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2006-base principal projections of the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS); - The planning scenario, or scenario C, which is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2004-base projections for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley 2006 Structure Plan Alteration (2006 Plan). The HNDA projections have been prepared in November 2009. Since then the GROS subnational population and household projections have been published on 3 February 2010 and 20 May 2010 respectively. The comparisons with GROS projection results given in this paper are with these latest projections. It should be noted that these GROS projections were not available when the HNDA projections were prepared. Also the more detailed assessment by Oxford Economics (report Economic outlook and scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde valley region, April 2010) has not been incorporated in the present HNDA projections. Tables A1 to A12 can be found in the Appendix of this paper. There can be small differences in the figures from the various Tables due to rounding. Section 2 comments on the new GROS fertility and mortality assumptions, as compared with the assumptions in the 2006-base projections. Section 3 and Tables A1 to A5 in the Appendix describe how the migration assumptions have been derived, based on recent migration data, and taking into account the latest projection assumptions for Scotland from the GROS. The migration assumptions for the two HNDA scenarios (lower migration and planning) are compared with the migration assumptions used for the 2006 Plan projections (see Appendix, Table A6). Section 4 gives the key results of the population projections for the above two scenarios. For comparison purposes, the results are also given for the GROS 2008-base projections and for the 2004-base projections from the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Structure Plan Alteration 2006 (2006 Plan). The latter projection is only for the period to 2018, which limits its’ comparability with the current projections. The Appendix gives further detail on the projection results in Tables A7 to A9. Section 5 gives the key results of the household projections for the above two scenarios. With regard to household formation assumptions, the GROS approach has been applied to the population projection results of the lower migration scenario. GROS have based their projected headship rates on household formation trends in the period 1991 to 2001 (the two Census years). There is some evidence that there has been a change in the rate of household formation since 2001, especially for Glasgow City (see Appendix Table A10). For the planning scenario, the projected headship rates have been calibrated so that they reflect household formation trends in the period 1991 to 2008. More detailed household projection results are given in Tables A11 and A12.
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2. Fertility and Mortality Rates. For the HNDA projections the new fertility and mortality rate assumptions from the 2008-base GROS projections have been used. GROS has increased the assumed long-term average completed family size from 1.65 in the 2006-base projection to 1.70 in the 2008-base projection. This has resulted in a higher projected number of births. The mortality rates from the latest GROS projections are only slightly below those of the 2006-base projections. 3. Migration Assumptions HNDA Projections. 3.1 Review of Recent Migration. Table A1 and Chart 1 show the clear improvement in the migration position for the GCV area in the recent period, 1981 – 2008. The trend shown in Chart 1 implies an annual improvement in net migration of 821, with positive net migration values in 2000/01 and from 2002 onwards. Table A1 also contains data for Argyll and Bute, so that migration data can be analysed for the combination of the three (former) Health Board areas Argyll and Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire. The data for Argyll and Bute show no clear rate of change, with net migration at, on average, around +200 per year. GROS has published, for Health Board areas, Tables with a breakdown of migration by component for the same period, 1981 – 2008. In Table A2.1 the net migration for the combination of three (former) Health Board areas is split by “net migration within UK” and “net international migration”. The latter is estimated by subtraction of “net migration within UK” from “total migration”. This estimate includes some overall migration adjustments, which are not necessarily international migration. Table A2.2 gives the trend coefficients, or rate of annual change in migration, for each of the components and for the two base periods 1981-2008 and 1991-2008. The total annual improvement of 818, estimated for base period 1981-2008, is made up of an annual improvement of 488 for “migration within UK” and 330 for “international migration”. Data for the more recent period 1991-2008 suggests that there has been a slowdown in the rate of improvement for “migration within UK” (to 279 per year). Care has to be taken with the interpretation of the increase in the rate of improvement for international migration (to 631 per year), as this has been affected by the Asylum seeker contract for Glasgow City and the recent surge in migrants from EU Accession Countries. It is clear that the shorter the base period, the larger the impact of these factors on the trend coefficients. Chart 2 shows the trend values of “migration within UK” for both the 1981-2008 and the 1991-2008 base periods. 3.2 GROS 2006-base projections. As stated in the Introduction, the lower migration scenario is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2006-base GROS principal projections. In response to recent high in-migration into Scotland, GROS assumed a higher net inflow than in the 2004-base projection. GROS also assumed that future migration levels would be below current levels, as recent sizable inflows from EU Accession countries were unlikely to be sustained in the longer term. The move towards a lower net migration level was assumed to be gradual. Therefore the GROS projection included higher, but gradually reducing, net inflows in the first six years of the projection, i.e. till 2012. Beyond 2012, GROS assumed a constant level of migration. Generally net migration assumptions by Council area in the GROS projections were based on net migration levels in the previous five years, i.e. 2001-06. For Glasgow City the migration assumption was based on recent net migration excluding asylum seekers, but with an asylum seeker adjustment of +600 per year in the long term migration figure for Glasgow City. To reflect the uncertainty over future levels of net inflows, GROS included a high migration variant projection, which assumed a smaller reduction in the long term migration position, as
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compared with recent migration levels. The planning scenario uses the GROS high migration variant assumptions as a base for the initial years. 3.3 Net Migration for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area as a whole. The first step in the preparation of the migration assumptions was to assess the likely level of net migration for the GCV area as a whole. Table A3.1 in the Appendix contains the average net migration for Scotland (excluding asylum seekers), split by (1) Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area (GCV area) and (2) Rest of Scotland (R of S), for the two five-year periods 200106 and 2003-08. GROS had published the net migration assumption by area (GCV area and Rest of Scotland) for the 2006-base projection. At the time when the HNDA migration assumptions were prepared, the GROS 2008-base projection was available at a Scotland level only. Therefore the split by area has been estimated in Table A3.2 (see Appendix) using the split in the 2006base projection, resulting in an annual net migration assumption of -1,050 for the lower migration scenario (rounded value of -1,056 in Table). The planning scenario reflects the GROS high migration variant assumptions for the initial years, which give a net annual migration of +1,050 (rounded value of 1,044 in Table). Technical Detail. For the 2006-base projection, the downward adjustment (see row “difference” in Table A3.2) in the migration assumption was -3,865 as compared with the annual migration in the previous 5 years (2001-06). Almost a quarter of this adjustment (-905) was allocated to the GCV area. For the 2008-base projection, the downward adjustment in the migration assumption is -9,553 as compared with the migration in the previous 5 years (2003-08). Allocation of the same proportion gives an adjustment of -2,237 for the GCV area, which results in a long term migration of approximately -1,050. The latter value includes an asylum seekers adjustment of 600 to Glasgow’s net migration position (which has also been applied by GROS in the 2006-base projections). Migration levels for the high migration variant are 8,500 above migration levels for the principal projection in both the 2006-base and the 2008-base projection of the GROS. Therefore the difference in migration for the GCV area in the 2006-base projection (2,100 = 150 – (-1,950)) has also been applied in the 2008-base projection. This gives an annual migration of 1,050 (= -1,050 + 2,100). The move towards a lower net migration level was assumed to be gradual. Therefore the GROS projection included higher, but gradually reducing, net inflows in the first six years of the projection, i.e. till 2012 for the 2006-base and till 2014 for the 2008-base projection. Beyond 2012 or 2014, GROS assumed a constant level of net-migration. As stated in the Introduction, the planning scenario is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2004-base projections for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley 2006 Structure Plan Alteration (2006 Plan). As has been mentioned already, the migration assumption for the planning scenario takes a base migration position that reflects the GROS high migration variant assumption, and assumes a continuation of the improvement in migration position seen in recent decades. However, the assessment done by Oxford Economics suggests that this improvement in migration is likely to be delayed, possibly by ten years. Also, it has been assumed that the rate of increase will be lower than in the past when the net migration resumes its rise in 2018/19. The projected rate of improvement is 279 per year, which is the trend coefficient for “within UK migration” estimated from the 1991-2008 period. The lower rate of improvement reflects the area’s positive net migration position since 2002 and the prospect that recent high migration levels for international migration are unlikely to continue in the longer term. 3.4 Net Migration by Council area. The second step in the preparation of the migration assumptions was to derive net migration assumptions by Council area (see Appendix Table A4). Fundamentally, under the lower migration scenario, the projected net migration for each Council area is based on the average net migration over the previous ten years (1998-2008), with the difference in GCV migration (549 = -1,050 + 1,599) allocated to Council areas based on population levels at 2008.
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For Glasgow City the migration assumption has been based on net migration excluding asylum seekers in 1998-2008, but with an asylum seeker adjustment of +600 per year in the long term migration figure for Glasgow City (-931 = -1,531 + 600). As stated above, the migration assumption for the planning scenario reflects, for the initial years, the updated net migration position of the GROS high migration variant. At a Council level, the net migration assumed is calculated by taking the difference between the longer term migration assumptions for the high migration variant and for the principal projection (from the GROS 2006-base projection) and adding this to the migration assumptions for the lower migration variant. From 2018/19 onwards, a continuation of the improvement in migration position at a rate of 279 per year has been assumed, which has been allocated to Council areas based on their population share (see Appendix Table A5). 3.5 Migration adjustments for initial years 2008-12. The GROS has assumed, in its’ 2006-base projections, that there will be higher net inflows in the short term, i.e. in the years up to 2012. These short term adjustments, which the GROS has applied to their long term migration assumption, have also been applied to the migration assumptions for the lower migration scenario. This gives the proposed net migration by Council area, after adjustment for initial years (see Appendix Table A5). 3.6 Comparison with Migration Assumptions 2006 Plan. A comparison of the migration assumptions for the lower migration and planning scenarios with the migration assumptions used in the 2006 Plan for the ten-year period 2008-2018, is given in Appendix Table A6. This shows that, for the GCV area, the annual average migration for the lower migration scenario is over 2,000 below the migration average for the 2006 Plan. The annual average migration for the planning scenario is more than 500 below the migration average for the 2006 Plan. 4. Population Projection Results. In terms of population change, Table 1 shows that the range of outcomes from HNDA scenarios (23,000 to 67,000 more population) is somewhat higher than the range of outcomes from the GROS projections (35,000 fewer to 52,000 more population). The results for the lower migration scenario compare with the GROS principal projection and the results for the planning scenario compare with the GROS high migration variant. As stated before, the comparisons are given with the latest GROS projections (2008-base), which were not available when the HNDA projections were prepared. Table 1. - Population Change population 2008 lower migration (A) 1,755,310 planning scenario (C) 1,755,310 GROS - Low Migration 1,755,310 GROS - Principal 1,755,310 GROS - High Migration 1,755,310
population 2025 1,778,181 1,822,048 1,719,932 1,772,696 1,807,804
change annual annual annual 2008-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 22,871 1,798 1,397 581 66,738 3,347 4,108 4,706 -35,378 -1,119 -2,224 -3,505 17,386 1,838 890 -176 52,494 3,558 3,187 2,257
More detailed projection results are given in the Appendix, Tables A7 to A9.
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Natural change is responsible for a sizeable population increase in all projections shown in Table 2. These figures are higher than the projected natural change in the 2006-Plan projections (see Appendix Table A8.3). The latter projection (2004-base) did not incorporate the positive changes in fertility rates and in mortality improvement rates from the 2006-base and 2008-base GROS projections. Table 2. - Annual Population Change by Component due to natural change due to net migration 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 lower migration (A) 2,178 2,451 1,629 -380 -1,054 -1,048 planning scenario (C) 2,299 2,846 2,258 1,048 1,262 2,448 GROS - Low Migration 1,843 1,476 195 -2,963 -3,700 -3,700 GROS - Principal 2,120 2,190 1,124 -281 -1,300 -1,300 GROS - High Migration 2,251 2,587 1,657 1,306 600 600
Table 3 shows that population ageing will result in large increases for the population age 60+ and in likely reductions for the population age 16 to 59. Table 3. - Annual Population Change by Age age 16-59 2008-2016 2016-2020 lower migration (A) -2,231 -7,352 planning scenario (C) -1,009 -5,447 GROS - Low Migration -4,292 -9,647 GROS - Principal -2,074 -7,647 GROS - High Migration -743 -6,057
age 60+ 2020-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 -7,394 4,479 7,855 9,135 -4,579 4,553 8,018 9,414 -9,741 4,215 7,569 8,781 -7,734 4,353 7,748 9,034 -6,133 4,434 7,875 9,187
5. Household Projection Results. 5.1 GROS household formation assumptions and recent household change. For their household projections, GROS uses projected headship rates based on household formation between 1991 and 2001, the two Census years. A comparison of the actual stockbased estimates of households for 2001 and 2008 with the change that would have occurred if the projected headship rates for 2008 had proved to be accurate, shows that the estimated change, at 34,312 for the GCV area, was 3,178 lower than the projected change, at 37,490 (see Table 4 below). This shortfall was entirely due to a lower than projected household growth for Glasgow City: an estimated change of 8,771, compared with a projected change of 18,198. For the other 7 Council areas the estimated change has been higher than the projected change. Table 4 - Households - Comparison of estimated and projected change 2001-2008
East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley
proj change 2001-2008 based on headship rates 316 593 18,198 78 7,840 1,390 8,461 615 37,490
stock-based estimated change 2001-2008 812 752 8,771 95 9,399 2,230 11,110 1,143 34,312
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estim change minus proj change 2001-2008 496 159 -9,427 17 1,559 840 2,649 528 -3,178
An examination of household changes over the same period 2001-2008, using data from the Scottish Household Survey (SHS), indicates a virtually constant average household size (at 2.09) for Glasgow City over that period, compared with a projected reduction in the average household size from 2.05 in 2001 to 1.94 in 2008, based on GROS projected headship rates. For the Rest of the GCV area, SHS data indicates a reduction in average household size (from 2.40 in 2001 to 2.29 in 2008), which corresponds more closely to the projected reduction (from 2.35 in 2001 to 2.26 in 2008). The above raises questions about the validity of using the GROS projected headship rates, based on 1991-2001 data, for the HNDA household projections. However, it is uncertain whether the changes found in 2001-2008 reflect a permanent change in household formation trends or a temporary difference due to e.g. higher house prices in 2001-2008.
5.2 Adjustment to household formation assumptions for planning scenario. Given that the purpose of the lower migration scenario is to anticipate the GROS 2008-base projections, it has been decided to apply the GROS household projection methodology to this option without any adjustment. Implicitly it has been assumed that, following the recent (20012008) changes, household formation will get back on track with the trends seen in the 1990s. For the planning scenario, a different approach has been chosen to address the above issues. Future household formation trends have been based on household formation in the 1991-2008 period, rather than 1991-2001, as currently used for GROS projected headship rates. This did not involve a recalculation of all of GROS headship rates. Instead, a series of calibration factors have been applied to the initial projections of total households based on these headship rates. The advantage of applying the above adjustments to the household formation assumptions of the planning scenario, is, that use is made of the most up-to-date information in a consistent way for all Council areas. By taking 1991-2008 as a base period there is less room for criticism that a particular set of circumstances, i.e. household formation under higher house prices in 2001-2008, is projected into the future. For this projection the projected households by type from the GROS headship rates have been calibrated to the projected total number of households. In view of the changes in household formation that have taken place in 2001-2008, these projections by household type have to be used with caution and interpreted in the light of the differences as presented in Table A10 (see Appendix).
5.3 Household Projection Results. In terms of household change, Table 5 shows that the range of outcomes from the HNDA lower migration and planning scenarios (96,000 to 114,000 more households) is higher than the range of outcomes from the GROS projections (65,000 to 104,000 more households). It was noted before that, for the population projections, the results for the lower migration scenario compare with the GROS principal projection and the results for the planning scenario compare with the GROS high migration variant. The difference between the two ranges of outcomes for projected household change (96,000 to 114,000 more households for the HNDA lower migration scenario and planning scenario and 88,000 to 104,000 more households for the GROS principal and higher migration variant) is greater than one would expect, given this similarity. One reason may be the use, in the HNDA projections, of 2006 values for the proportions of people living in Communal Establishments. GROS have updated these proportions in their 2008-base projections. Another reason is that GROS constrain the results for individual Council areas to a Scotland-wide total, which has reduced projected household figures for Council areas in the GCV area.
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The household projections for the GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 showed a relatively high rate of annual household growth: 7,611 per year in 2008-2016 (see Appendix Table A11). This higher rate of growth is partly due to the use of a different set of projected headship rates (derived from 1991 and 2001 Census data for a different breakdown of household types). Table 5. - Household Change households households 2008 2025 lower migration (A) 804,708 901,052 planning scenario (C) 804,708 918,408 GROS - Low Migration 795,410 860,130 GROS - Principal 795,410 882,980 GROS - High Migration 795,410 899,728
change annual annual annual 2008-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 96,344 6,276 5,495 4,830 113,700 6,805 6,576 6,591 64,720 4,614 3,735 2,574 87,570 5,810 5,160 4,090 104,318 6,584 6,287 5,300
Population ageing will result in large increases in the number of households “headed” by a person age 60+ and in very limited growth or reductions in the number of households “headed” by a younger person (see Table 6). Table 6. - Annual Household Change by Age of Household Representative age 16-59 age 60+ 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 lower migration (A) 3,438 438 -1,269 2,838 5,057 6,100 planning scenario (C) 3,922 1,409 306 2,882 5,168 6,285 GROS - Low Migration 2,185 -1,035 -2,928 2,429 4,770 5,502 GROS - Principal 3,321 275 -1,566 2,489 4,885 5,656 GROS - High Migration 4,057 1,318 -462 2,527 4,969 5,761
More detail on the household projection results is given in the Appendix, Tables A11 and A12.
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Appendix List of Tables Table A1
Net migration by Council area for 3 Health Board areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008
Table A2.1 Net migration by Component for 3 Health Board areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008 Table A2.2 Trend coefficients by component for different base periods Table A3.1 Net migration (excluding asylum seekers) in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area and Rest of Scotland in 1981-2008 Table A3.2 Derivation of migration assumptions HNDA projection Table A4
Derivation of net migration assumptions by Council area
Table A5
Net migration assumptions by Council area for Scenarios A and C – after adjustment for initial years
Table A6
Comparison GROS and SDP migration assumptions with assumptions 2006 Plan
Table A7
Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area
Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component Table A8.1 HNDA lower migration scenario (A) Table A8.2 HNDA planning scenario (C) Table A8.3 2006 Structure Plan Alteration Table A9
Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Age
Table A10
Estimated annual changes by household type in 2001-2008
Table A11
Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area
Table A12
Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area, by Household Type and by Age of Household Representative
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Table A1 - Net migration by Council area for 3 Health Board Areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
East Dunbartonshire 47 85 -3 -173 -799 -298 -784 -571 -353 -659 -847 -594 -7 66 -817 -104 -424 -482 -19 -385 -949 -246 -340 -518 -485 -484 -118
East Renfrewshire 29 -214 97 434 84 431 1,225 676 519 -124 -22 220 -107 657 -227 308 195 86 413 264 150 19 -61 -84 -361 -43 -72
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
-8,386 -8,494 -6,591 -7,916 -6,001 -8,415 -11,298 -7,795 -7,281 -1,699 -7,043 -4,849 -3,402 -7,368 -3,770 -7,713 -2,830 -2,445 -4,516 2,695 -214 982 1,343 1,626 2,169 1,414 1,903
-624 -787 -1,237 -1,075 -1,043 -1,005 -1,349 -1,028 -905 -615 -512 -795 -376 -551 -1,378 -421 -370 -363 -383 -240 -186 -295 -339 -169 -403 -317 -189
-2,624 -1,618 -2,391 -3,011 -3,817 -2,276 -3,597 -1,207 -530 -2,815 -1976 -2012 -834 -870 -1433 -360 -862 -547 -901 -557 -97 262 521 150 -35 347 212
-1,069 -2,097 -1,777 -679 -561 -1,932 -1,355 -151 447 -1,571 -566 -67 109 922 -72 -718 -578 -778 -545 -767 -668 -611 -195 -484 -272 60 142
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Migration Estimates - CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
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West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire -2,191 -1,331 -2,097 -1,431 -1,653 -1,253 -2,294 -1,334 -1,864 -1,260 -988 -966 -1,389 -715 -204 -1,258 -272 -32 -980 -525 43 -386 177 -29 913 -277 -547 -1002 -191 -475 -447 -61 -1047 -244 -661 -380 -170 -344 197 -453 14 -281 1158 -293 2500 -193 981 -405 1249 -107 1675 -95 428 -147
GCV Structure Plan Area -16,149 -16,653 -14,808 -16,048 -15,261 -15,449 -19,262 -11,538 -8,407 -8,988 -11,309 -7,949 -3,981 -8,693 -8,363 -9,516 -6,160 -5,570 -6,465 754 -2,231 976 3,236 1,097 1,755 2,557 2,159
Argyll and Bute
3 Health Board areas
112 841 636 564 -57 368 521 341 -302 53 -1,835 -304 988 227 107 293 332 347 -163 553 158 678 239 64 819 297 -514
-16,037 -15,812 -14,172 -15,484 -15,318 -15,081 -18,741 -11,197 -8,709 -8,935 -13,144 -8,253 -2,993 -8,466 -8,256 -9,223 -5,828 -5,223 -6,628 1,307 -2,073 1,654 3,475 1,161 2,574 2,854 1,645
19 81 19 /82 82 19 /83 83 19 /84 84 19 /85 85 19 /86 86 19 /87 87 19 /88 88 19 /89 89 19 /90 90 19 /91 91 19 /92 92 19 /93 93 19 /94 94 19 /95 95 19 /96 96 19 /97 97 19 /98 98 19 /99 99 20 /00 00 20 /01 01 20 /02 02 20 /03 03 20 /04 04 20 /05 05 20 /06 06 20 /07 07 /0 8
net migration
Chart 1 - Net Migration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981-2008
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000 GCV area trend in migration
-15,000
-20,000
-25,000
year
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Table A2.1 - Net Migration by Component for 3 Health Board Areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008
Year 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
net migration Net migration Armed Forces with rest of with rest of UK Scotland -5,637 -6,133 -5,646 -5,406 -4,997 -5,238 -4,617 -945 -6,337 -2,017 -4,355 -3,865 -3,093 -2,697 -1,859 -3,391 -1,744 -2,185 -2,028 -1,575 -2,466 -2,780 -2,697 -2,911 -1,857 -1,950 -1,610
-4,503 -5,805 -7,572 -8,927 -7,653 -8,187 -9,425 -5,719 -3,111 1,426 -1,001 -894 -206 -2,382 -3,556 -4,226 -1,890 -2,291 -4,077 -1,075 -1,204 -1,198 891 751 -136 696 1,785
216 -48 3 -158 -106 -216 -385 -584 -627 -94 261 335 426 418 284 214 0 -81 56 157 23 40 161 263 159 245 179
Net migration within UK (source: NHSCR) -9,924 -11,986 -13,215 -14,491 -12,756 -13,641 -14,427 -7,248 -10,075 -685 -5,095 -4,424 -2,873 -4,661 -5,131 -7,403 -3,634 -4,557 -6,049 -2,493 -3,647 -3,938 -1,645 -1,897 -1,834 -1,009 354
Derived Total migration estimate of net 3 Health Board international areas migration -6,113 -16,037 -3,826 -15,812 -957 -14,172 -993 -15,484 -2,562 -15,318 -1,440 -15,081 -4,314 -18,741 -3,949 -11,197 1,366 -8,709 -8,250 -8,935 -8,049 -13,144 -3,829 -8,253 -120 -2,993 -3,805 -8,466 -3,125 -8,256 -1,820 -9,223 -2,194 -5,828 -666 -5,223 -579 -6,628 3,800 1,307 1,574 -2,073 5,592 1,654 5,120 3,475 3,058 1,161 4,408 2,574 3,863 2,854 1,291 1,645
Source: General Register Office for Scotland NHSCR Tables - CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
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Table A2.2 - Trend coefficients by component for different base periods Base period Rest Scotland Rest UK Armed forces Within UK International Total
1981-2008
1991-2008
154 320 14 488 330 818
96 194 -11 279 631 910
19 81 19 /82 82 19 /83 83 19 /84 84 19 /85 85 19 /86 86 19 /87 87 19 /88 88 19 /89 89 19 /90 90 19 /91 91 19 /92 92 19 /93 93 19 /94 94 19 /95 95 19 /96 96 19 /97 97 19 /98 98 19 /99 99 20 /00 00 20 /01 01 20 /02 02 20 /03 03 20 /04 04 20 /05 05 20 /06 06 20 /07 07 /0 8
net migration
Chart 2 - Net Migration within UK for Three Health Board areas 1981-2008
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000 Net migration within UK trend for base 1981-2008 trend for base 1991-2008
-10,000
-12,000
-14,000
-16,000
year
14
Table A3.1 - Net Migration (excluding asylum seekers) for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area and Rest of Scotland in 2001-2008 Glasgow and the Rest of Scotland Clyde Valley area
Year
Scotland
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 averages 2001-06 2003-08
-6,992 5,929 22,712 16,579 20,595 25,524 19,353
-5,888 -2,224 936 -1,003 -45 1,857 1,159
-1,104 8,153 21,776 17,582 20,640 23,667 18,194
11,765 20,953
-1,645 581
13,409 20,372
Source: General Register Office for Scotland CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED
Table A3.2 - Derivation of migration assumptions HNDA projection GROS 2006-base long term migration assumptions Principal Projection Scotland GCV area net migration 8,500 -1,950 asylum seekers 600 600 net migration adjusted 7,900 -2,550 average 2001-06 11,765 -1,645 difference -3,865 -905
GROS 2006-base long term migration assumptions High Migration Variant Rest of Scotland Scotland GCV area 10,450 net migration 17,000 150 0 asylum seekers 600 600 10,450 net migration adjusted 16,400 -450 13,409 average 2001-06 11,765 -1,645 -2,959 difference 4,635 1,195
GROS 2008-base long term migration assumptions Principal Projection with estimated split GCV area/Rest of Scotland Scotland GCV area Rest of Scotland net migration 12,000 -1,056 13,056 asylum seekers 600 600 0 net migration adjusted 11,400 -1,656 13,056 average 2003-08 20,953 581 20,372 difference -9,553 -2,237 -7,316
Rest of Scotland 16,850 0 16,850 13,409 3,441
GROS 2008-base long term migration assumptions High Migration Variant with estimated split GCV area/Rest of Scotland Scotland GCV area Rest of Scotland net migration 20,500 1,044 19,456 asylum seekers 600 600 0 net migration adjusted 19,900 444 19,456 average 2003-08 20,953 581 20,372 difference -1,053 -137 -916
15
Table A4 - Derivation of Net Migration Assumptions by Council Area
1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
East Dunbartonshire -847 -594 -7 66 -817 -104 -424 -482 -19 -385 -949 -246 -340 -518 -485 -484 -118
East Renfrewshire -22 220 -107 657 -227 308 195 86 413 264 150 19 -61 -84 -361 -43 -72
West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire 43 -386 177 -29 913 -277 -547 -1002 -191 -475 -447 -61 -1047 -244 -661 -380 -170 -344 197 -453 14 -281 1158 -293 2500 -193 981 -405 1249 -107 1675 -95 428 -147
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
-7,043 -4,849 -3,402 -7,368 -3,770 -7,713 -2,830 -2,445 -4,516 -2,810 -3,871 -2,218 -957 -474 369 714 903
-512 -795 -376 -551 -1,378 -421 -370 -363 -383 -240 -186 -295 -339 -169 -403 -317 -189
-1976 -2012 -834 -870 -1433 -360 -862 -547 -901 -557 -97 262 521 150 -35 347 212
-566 -67 109 922 -72 -718 -578 -778 -545 -767 -668 -611 -195 -484 -272 60 142
325,520 -65
169,800 -412
310,090 737
90,940 -270
37
-359
834
-241
1,755,310 -1,599 -1,050 -1,050
50 250 200
-500 -350 150
1,050 1,350 300
-300 -200 100
-1,950 150 2,100
237
-209
1,134
-141
1,050
migration assumptions lower migration scenario (A) population 2008 104,720 89,220 584,240 80,780 aver. mig. 1998-08 -403 31 -931 -288 migration assumption by Council area scenario A -370 59 -747 -263 planning scenario (C) longer term migration assumption GROS (2006-base) principal -550 -100 -1,300 -300 high migration -450 0 -200 -250 difference 100 100 1,100 50 migration assumption by Council area for years 2008-2018 scenario C -270 159 353 -213
16
GCV Area -11,309 -7,949 -3,981 -8,693 -8,363 -9,516 -6,160 -5,570 -6,465 -4,751 -5,888 -2,224 936 -1,003 -45 1,857 1,159
Table A5 - Net migration assumptions by Council area for Scenarios A and C - after adjustment for initial years East East Glasgow Dunbarton- RenfrewCity shire shire net migration lower migration scenario (A) 2008/09 -354 59 250 2009/10 -337 59 586 2010/11 -337 59 240 2011/12 -370 59 13 2012/13 -370 59 -555 2013/14 -370 59 -664 2014-2025 -370 59 -747 net migration planning scenario (C) 2008/09 -270 159 353 2009/10 -270 159 353 2010/11 -270 159 353 2011/12 -270 159 353 2012/13 -270 159 353 2013/14 -270 159 353 2014/15 -270 159 353 2015/16 -270 159 353 2016/17 -270 159 353 2017/18 -270 159 353 2018/19 -253 173 446 2019/20 -237 187 539 2020/21 -220 202 632 2021/22 -203 216 724 2022/23 -187 230 817 2023/24 -170 244 910 2024/25 -153 258 1,003
West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
-263 -263 -263 -263 -263 -263 -263
37 37 37 37 37 37 37
-297 -259 -260 -264 -340 -342 -359
896 901 900 882 853 834 834
-179 -174 -175 -194 -222 -241 -241
150 550 200 -100 -800 -950 -1,050
-213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -200 -187 -174 -162 -149 -136 -123
237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 289 340 392 444 496 547 599
-209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -182 -155 -128 -101 -74 -47 -20
1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,183 1,233 1,282 1,331 1,380 1,430 1,479
-141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -127 -112 -98 -83 -69 -54 -40
1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,329 1,608 1,888 2,166 2,444 2,724 3,003
17
GCV Area
Table A6 - Comparison GROS and SDP migration assumptions with assumptions 2006 Plan East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Migration assumptions for 2006 Plan 2008/09 -29 2009/10 -5 2010/11 18 2011/12 42 2012/13 66 2013/14 89 2014/15 113 2015/16 137 2016/17 160 2017/18 184 annual average 2008-2018 2006 Plan 78 GROS principal projection -545 high migration variant -445 SDP lower migration (A) -362 planning scenario (C) -270 difference with 2006 Plan GROS principal projection -623 high migration variant -523 SDP lower migration (A) -439 planning scenario (C) -348
West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
160 180 200 219 239 259 279 298 318 338
-672 -145 -17 110 237 364 492 619 747 874
-39 -21 -2 16 35 53 72 90 109 127
-52 19 90 161 231 302 373 444 515 586
-27 11 49 87 125 163 200 238 276 314
158 225 291 358 424 491 558 624 691 758
-27 -7 14 34 55 75 96 116 137 157
-528 257 643 1,027 1,412 1,796 2,183 2,566 2,953 3,338
249
261
44
267
144
458
65
1,565
-120 -45
-995 205
-305 -255
45 230
-465 -330
1,070 1,355
-280 -180
-1,595 535
59 159
-312 353
-263 -213
37 237
-320 -209
860 1,134
-215 -141
-515 1,050
-369 -294
-1,256 -56
-349 -299
-222 -37
-609 -474
612 897
-345 -245
-3,160 -1,030
-190 -90
-573 92
-307 -257
-230 -30
-463 -353
402 676
-280 -206
-2,080 -515
18
GCV Area
Table A7 - Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Lower migration scenario (A) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 1,755,310 104,720 89,220 584,240 2016 1,769,690 102,043 90,618 591,298 2020 1,775,276 100,594 91,597 593,850 2025 1,778,181 98,488 92,974 595,415 annual change 2008-2016 1,798 -335 175 882 2016-2020 1,397 -362 245 638 2020-2025 581 -421 275 313 Planning scenario (C) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 1,755,310 104,720 89,220 584,240 2016 1,782,088 102,823 91,501 596,036 2020 1,798,519 101,914 93,042 603,933 2025 1,822,048 100,869 95,482 614,795 annual change 2008-2016 3,347 -237 285 1,475 2016-2020 4,108 -227 385 1,974 2020-2025 4,706 -209 488 2,172 GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 1,734,944 105,832 90,324 570,111 2016 1,741,084 105,748 92,060 575,785 2018 1,747,684 106,044 92,724 579,611 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2018
768 3,300
-11 148
217 332
80,780 77,754 76,222 74,038
North Lanarkshire 325,520 331,727 334,489 337,131
-378 -383 -437
776 691 528
Inverclyde
80,780 78,213 77,000 75,510
North Lanarkshire 325,520 333,452 337,321 342,563
-321 -303 -298
992 967 1,048
Inverclyde
80,744 78,817 78,571
North Lanarkshire 322,648 324,736 325,937
-241 -123
261 601
Inverclyde
709 1,913
19
169,800 167,801 166,627 164,793
South Lanarkshire 310,090 318,947 323,155 327,815
West Dunbartonshire 90,940 89,502 88,742 87,527
-250 -294 -367
1,107 1,052 932
-180 -190 -243
169,800 168,671 168,298 168,112
South Lanarkshire 310,090 321,250 327,053 334,868
West Dunbartonshire 90,940 90,142 89,958 89,849
-141 -93 -37
1,395 1,451 1,563
-100 -46 -22
169,427 168,444 168,579
South Lanarkshire 304,893 304,839 305,358
West Dunbartonshire 90,965 90,655 90,860
-123 68
-7 260
-39 103
Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire
Table A8.1 - Population Projection Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component - HNDA lower migration scenario (A)
year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
annual total change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual natural change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual net migration 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025
population at start 1,755,310 1,757,210 1,759,706 1,761,956 1,764,008 1,765,418 1,766,803 1,768,208 1,769,690 1,771,194 1,772,663 1,774,034 1,775,276 1,776,354 1,777,182 1,777,815 1,778,128
births
deaths
21,166 20,740 20,565 20,443 20,353 20,280 20,251 20,238 20,192 20,108 19,991 19,846 19,678 19,499 19,311 19,117 18,927
19,402 18,791 18,536 18,302 18,108 17,943 17,814 17,711 17,641 17,588 17,556 17,549 17,566 17,606 17,660 17,731 17,823
natural change 1,764 1,949 2,030 2,141 2,245 2,337 2,436 2,527 2,551 2,521 2,435 2,297 2,112 1,892 1,650 1,386 1,105
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
1,798 1,397 581
-335 -362 -421
175 245 275
882 638 313
-378 -383 -437
776 691 528
-250 -294 -367
1,107 1,052 932
-180 -190 -243
2,178 2,451 1,629
25 9 -53
116 187 216
1,085 1,384 1,062
-115 -118 -176
739 653 491
59 68 -8
241 217 98
28 52 -2
-381 -1,054 -1,048
-360 -371 -369
59 58 60
-203 -746 -749
-263 -265 -261
37 38 37
-309 -361 -358
866 835 834
-208 -242 -241
net migration total change 136 547 220 -89 -835 -952 -1,031 -1,045 -1,047 -1,052 -1,064 -1,055 -1,034 -1,064 -1,017 -1,073 -1,052
20
1,900 2,496 2,250 2,052 1,410 1,385 1,405 1,482 1,504 1,469 1,371 1,242 1,078 828 633 313 53
population at end 1,757,210 1,759,706 1,761,956 1,764,008 1,765,418 1,766,803 1,768,208 1,769,690 1,771,194 1,772,663 1,774,034 1,775,276 1,776,354 1,777,182 1,777,815 1,778,128 1,778,181
North South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Table A8.2 Population Projection Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component - HNDA planning scenario (C)
year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
annual total change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual natural change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual net migration 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025
population at start 1,755,310 1,758,128 1,761,145 1,764,320 1,767,560 1,770,985 1,774,557 1,778,253 1,782,088 1,786,023 1,789,985 1,794,140 1,798,519 1,803,026 1,807,671 1,812,391 1,817,191
births
deaths
21,166 20,775 20,625 20,534 20,483 20,465 20,493 20,540 20,552 20,523 20,459 20,371 20,264 20,148 20,027 19,905 19,790
19,402 18,793 18,537 18,308 18,116 17,958 17,836 17,740 17,677 17,631 17,606 17,608 17,634 17,685 17,751 17,834 17,941
natural change 1,764 1,981 2,087 2,226 2,367 2,508 2,657 2,800 2,875 2,892 2,853 2,764 2,629 2,463 2,276 2,071 1,849
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
3,347 4,108 4,706
-237 -227 -209
285 385 488
1,475 1,974 2,172
-321 -303 -298
992 967 1,048
-141 -93 -37
1,395 1,451 1,563
-100 -46 -22
2,299 2,846 2,258
33 29 -22
127 215 257
1,121 1,553 1,355
-108 -99 -150
755 692 550
68 95 37
263 275 184
40 86 47
1,049 1,262 2,448
-270 -256 -187
158 170 231
354 422 817
-213 -204 -148
237 275 499
-209 -188 -74
1,132 1,175 1,379
-140 -132 -69
net migration total change 1,054 1,036 1,088 1,014 1,058 1,064 1,039 1,035 1,060 1,070 1,302 1,615 1,878 2,182 2,444 2,729 3,008
21
2,818 3,017 3,175 3,240 3,425 3,572 3,696 3,835 3,935 3,962 4,155 4,379 4,507 4,645 4,720 4,800 4,857
population at end 1,758,128 1,761,145 1,764,320 1,767,560 1,770,985 1,774,557 1,778,253 1,782,088 1,786,023 1,789,985 1,794,140 1,798,519 1,803,026 1,807,671 1,812,391 1,817,191 1,822,048
North South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Table A8.3 Population Projection Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component - 2006 Structure Plan Alteration population at start 1,734,944 1,733,427 1,732,887 1,732,928 1,733,511 1,734,622 1,736,250 1,738,399 1,741,084 1,744,200
births
deaths
18,010 18,060 18,151 18,254 18,353 18,448 18,579 18,726 18,821 18,867
18,997 18,857 18,753 18,699 18,654 18,618 18,613 18,608 18,658 18,722
natural change -987 -797 -602 -445 -301 -170 -34 118 163 145
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
annual total change 2008-2016 2016-2018
768 3,300
-11 148
217 332
709 1,913
-241 -123
261 601
-123 68
-7 260
-39 103
annual natural change 2008-2016 2016-2018
-402 154
-64 -24
-12 4
586 1,103
-266 -241
65 50
-229 -228
-398 -465
-83 -45
annual net migration 2008-2016 2016-2018
1,170 3,146
54 172
229 328
124 811
26 118
196 551
106 295
391 725
45 147
year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
net migration total change -530 257 643 1,028 1,412 1,798 2,183 2,567 2,953 3,339
22
-1,517 -540 41 583 1,111 1,628 2,149 2,685 3,116 3,484
population at end 1,733,427 1,732,887 1,732,928 1,733,511 1,734,622 1,736,250 1,738,399 1,741,084 1,744,200 1,747,684
North South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Table A9 - Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Age
lower migration scenario (A) YEAR total 0 to 15 2008 1,755,310 315,002 2016 1,769,690 311,393 2020 1,775,276 314,967 2025 1,778,181 309,168 annual change 2008-2016 1,798 -451 2016-2020 1,397 894 2020-2025 581 -1,160 planning scenario (C) YEAR total 2008 1,755,310 2016 1,782,088 2020 1,798,519 2025 1,822,048 annual change 2008-2016 3,347 2016-2020 4,108 2020-2025 4,706
16 to 29 345,578 323,306 304,436 293,185
30 to 44 369,575 348,797 356,926 365,430
45 to 59 356,558 381,763 363,095 328,871
60 to 74 244,304 264,269 284,921 308,246
75+ 124,293 140,162 150,931 173,281
-2,784 -4,718 -2,250
-2,597 2,032 1,701
3,151 -4,667 -6,845
2,496 5,163 4,665
1,984 2,692 4,470
0 to 15 315,002 313,425 319,575 318,931
16 to 29 345,578 326,953 310,063 302,449
30 to 44 369,575 353,680 366,097 381,795
45 to 59 356,558 383,007 365,691 334,712
60 to 74 244,304 264,730 285,888 310,230
75+ 124,293 140,293 151,205 173,931
-197 1,538 -129
-2,328 -4,223 -1,523
-1,987 3,104 3,140
3,306 -4,329 -6,196
2,553 5,290 4,868
2,000 2,728 4,545
16 to 29 336,790 316,119 307,291
30 to 44 366,314 344,047 348,375
45 to 59 355,870 384,515 379,897
60 to 74 246,099 266,498 276,330
75+ 123,692 139,015 143,362
-2,584 -4,414
-2,783 2,164
3,581 -2,309
2,550 4,916
1,915 2,174
GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 YEAR GCV 0 to 15 2008 1,734,944 306,179 2016 1,741,084 290,890 2018 1,747,681 292,426 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2018
768 3,299
-1,911 768
23
Table A10 - Estimated Annual Changes by Household Type 2001-2008
East Dunbartonshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference East Renfrewshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Glasgow City based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Inverclyde based on headship rates based on SHS data difference North Lanarkshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Renfrewshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference South Lanarkshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference West Dunbartonshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Glasgow and Clyde Valley based on headship rates based on SHS data difference
2+ adults with child(ren)
total households
1 adult
2 adults
3+ adults
1 adult with child(ren)
229 108 -121
154 311 157
-37 -31 6
28 68 40
-258 -340 -82
116 116 0
160 250 90
102 -155 -258
-31 73 104
32 -60 -92
-155 0 155
107 107 0
1,822 174 -1,649
-260 1,036 1,296
-144 963 1,107
520 -726 -1,246
-686 -193 493
1,253 1,253 0
213 106 -107
26 19 -6
-52 -43 10
22 -75 -97
-195 6 201
14 14 0
1,176 723 -452
520 890 370
-130 -122 8
306 113 -193
-528 -262 266
1,343 1,343 0
508 534 26
151 -99 -250
-106 -38 68
86 -159 -245
-320 80 400
319 319 0
1,163 848 -315
608 784 176
-87 168 255
277 -122 -399
-374 -91 283
1,587 1,587 0
295 217 -78
65 -58 -123
-56 196 252
38 -33 -71
-180 -160 19
163 163 0
5,567 2,961 -2,606
1,365 2,728 1,363
-644 1,167 1,811
1,310 -994 -2,303
-2,696 -961 1,736
4,902 4,902 0
24
Table A11 - Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Lower migration scenario (A) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 804,709 43,227 35,988 284,533 2016 854,917 44,065 37,349 307,175 2020 876,897 44,381 38,159 316,360 2025 901,048 44,693 39,192 326,281 annual change 2008-2016 6,276 105 170 2,830 2016-2020 5,495 79 203 2,296 2020-2025 4,830 62 207 1,984 Planning scenario (C) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 804,709 43,227 35,988 284,533 2016 859,147 44,607 37,789 304,798 2020 885,452 45,260 38,872 314,085 2025 918,408 46,149 40,377 325,398 annual change 2008-2016 6,805 173 225 2,533 2016-2020 6,576 163 271 2,322 2020-2025 6,591 178 301 2,263 GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 808,635 43,551 36,812 288,137 2016 869,521 46,194 39,530 313,365 2018 885,508 46,916 40,239 320,050 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2018
7,611 7,994
330 361
340 355
37,156 37,632 37,696 37,560
North Lanarkshire 143,715 154,186 159,025 164,655
60 16 -27
1,309 1,210 1,126
Inverclyde
37,156 37,846 38,055 38,231
North Lanarkshire 143,715 155,806 161,615 169,057
86 52 35
1,511 1,452 1,488
Inverclyde
38,117 39,776 40,150
North Lanarkshire 143,686 155,367 158,447
207 187
1,460 1,540
Inverclyde
3,154 3,343
25
79,037 81,077 81,883 82,554
South Lanarkshire 138,354 149,154 154,394 160,467
West Dunbartonshire 42,699 44,279 44,999 45,646
255 202 134
1,350 1,310 1,215
198 180 129
79,037 81,912 83,314 85,036
South Lanarkshire 138,354 151,581 158,332 166,915
West Dunbartonshire 42,699 44,808 45,919 47,245
359 351 344
1,653 1,688 1,717
264 278 265
79,187 83,256 84,316
South Lanarkshire 136,578 146,624 149,185
West Dunbartonshire 42,567 45,409 46,205
509 530
1,256 1,281
355 398
Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire
Table A12 - Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Household Type and by Age of Representative Lower migration scenario (A) YEAR
Total
2008 804,709 2016 854,918 2020 876,899 2025 901,052 annual change 2008-2016 6,276 2016-2020 5,495 2020-2025 4,831 Planning scenario (C)
one adult
two+ adults
305,517 358,093 382,088 410,370
284,696 293,283 294,812 294,123
6,572 5,999 5,656
1,073 382 -138
YEAR
Total
one adult
two+ adults
2008 2016 2020 2025 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025
804,709 859,147 885,452 918,408
305,517 359,174 384,730 416,564
284,696 294,624 297,362 298,975
6,805 6,576 6,591
6,707 6,389 6,367
1,241 685 323
one adult and two+ adults child(ren) and child(ren) 68,721 145,775 78,773 124,769 83,701 116,298 89,470 107,089 1,257 1,232 1,154
-2,626 -2,118 -1,842
one adult and two+ adults child(ren) and child(ren) 68,721 145,775 79,422 125,927 85,037 118,323 92,234 110,635 1,338 1,404 1,439
-2,481 -1,901 -1,538
26
age 16-29
age 30-44
age 45-59
age 60-74
age 75+
102,942 104,858 102,823 101,166
228,169 228,595 240,095 252,689
222,231 247,395 239,682 222,400
159,594 171,142 183,628 197,939
91,773 102,928 110,671 126,858
240 -509 -331
53 2,875 2,519
3,146 -1,928 -3,456
1,444 3,122 2,862
1,394 1,936 3,237
age 16-29
age 30-44
age 45-59
age 60-74
age 75+
102,942 105,887 104,537 104,176
228,169 230,978 244,997 262,372
222,231 247,856 240,821 225,338
159,594 171,404 184,155 198,979
91,773 103,022 110,942 127,543
368 -338 -72
351 3,505 3,475
3,203 -1,759 -3,097
1,476 3,188 2,965
1,406 1,980 3,320
Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority Lower ground floor, 125 West Regent Street, Glasgow G2 2SA t 0141 229 7730 | e info@gcvsdpa.gov.uk | w www.gcvsdpa.gov.uk