The Economist by Georgia Today Group

hilari klintoni genderul uTanasworobaze mateo renci gegma italiisTvis bil geiTsi siRaribesTan brZolis progresze

licenzianti

Georgia Today Group

2015

sarCevi 9

redaqtorisgan

liderebi 11 dasavleTis diskomforti wuxili demokratiis Sesaxeb gaizrdeba 12 msoflio uwesrigoba SeeCvie 16 gzebis gayofa ekonomikuri arastabilurobis weli 17 Savi Wiris gakveTilebi epidemiebis mimarT unda Seicvalos 18 ganadgureba qvemodan da zemodan arastabiluri weli biznesisTvis 19 gayofili gamosaxulebebi gamoyofis momxreebi mwkrivdebian 20 siamaye da crurwmena azrTa sxvadasxvaoba geebis uflebebis Sesaxeb 21 mega karta (didi qartia) Tavisuflebis didi qartia internetis xanisTvis 22 warmosaxviTi politika mTavroba, romelic britaneTs unda hyavdes 24 kalendari 2015 wlisTvis

mTavari redaqtori deniel franklini mmarTveli redaqtori ivon raiani redaqtoris moadgileebi adam bernsi leo abruzese Photographs: © Alamy. © PA/Press Association Images. © General Motors. © Getty Images. © Musée de Louvre/RMN/ Angèle Dequier. © The Picture Desk/Art Archive. © Reuters. Rex Features/©Columbia Pictures/ Everett Collection. Siemens NX. Agus Suparto. Courtesy of Victoria & Albert Museum, London. Illustrations: Steve Carroll. Matt Herring. Dave Simonds. `msoflio 2015 wels~ The World In 2015 Targmani: `jorjia Tudei jgufi~ Georgia Today Group © 2014 gazeTi `ekonomisti” The Economist Newspaper Limited yvela ufleba daculia licenzianti `jorjia Tudei jgufi~

Georgia Today Group meliqiSvilis 1 Tbilisi 0179, saqarTvelo tel: +995 32 229 59 19 el.fosta: info@georgiatodaygroup.ge

britaneTi 35 koalicia, gagrZeleba parlamenti qmediTi umravlesobis gareSe 36 referendumis Semdeg ra elis Sotlandias 37 italiuri gakveTilebi megobruli rCeva 2015 wlisTvis

41 42 43

SeerTebuli Statebi prezidentis yvela kalami daedos Tu ara veto? im didis molodinSi gza TeTri saxlisken zRvruli wertili `obamaqea~ wasvlas arsad apirebs frTxili moqmedeba saprocento ganakveTebis mokrZalebuli zrda budidan gafrenis droa Tqveni Svilebi, bolos da bolos, saxlidan midian yvela is teqnika, romlis Cacmac SesaZlebelia silikonis veli fizikur saxes iZens njRreviT afrena upiloto safreni aparatebi asafrenad emzadebian bruni ukan ian bremeri sagareo politikaze orientirebuli prezidentis SesaZleblobebze

amerika 48 nabaxusevi laTinuri amerika nedleulis bumis Semdeg 49 pirveli raundi iwyeba meqsikur navTobze konkurencia mZafrdeba 50 zustad droze kanadas kidev erTi trudo gauZRveba 51 inkluziuri politika miSel baCele ganviTarebaze azia 53 indoneziis axali starti joko vidodo saqmeebis Sesasruleblad ibrZolebs 54 Taviseburi arCevani birma arCevnebze midis 55 saqmis kaci SeuZlia Tu ara narendra modis dapirebebis Sesruleba? 56 indoeTis sauniversiteto gamowveva raodenoba xarisxis gareSe

usafrTxoeba cifrebSi aseanis axali ekonomikuri sazogadoeba 58 gadamwyveti dro abenomikas cota dro rCeba 60 avstraliis radarze galipolidan CineTamde 60 didi barieris wuxili gankiTxvis dRe bunebis ZeglisTvis 61 saqmiani gegmebi joko vidodo indoneziis reformirebaze CineTi 62 meti „kunTebis TamaSi~ Senelebuli zrda, mzardi Zalaufleba 63 ukeTesi momsaxurebis wyurvili Sua samefo jadosnur samefos xvdeba 64 sayuradRebo cifri emzadeT zrdis ufro dabali niSnulisTvis axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika 65 jihadizmis marSi dasavluri intervencia arabuli saxelmwifoebis daSlis Semdeg 66 qurTebis gaTvla mravalucnobiani gantoleba 67 yvelaferi cudad ar aris axlo aRmosavleTis naTeli wertilebi 68 maRali fsonebi iranSi movrigdeT Tu ara? 68 ebolas grZeli `memkvidreoba~ safasuri mxolod sicocxle ar iqneba The cost won’t just be in lives 69 moaxloebuli afrikuli valis krizisi valebi SemaSfoTeblad grovdeba 70 afrokapitalizmis aRzeveba toni elumelu afrikel mewarmeebze saerTaSoriso 71 mosazreba klimatze klimatis xelSekrulebas xeli moewereba 72 2014 weli retrospeqtivaSi Cveni saukeTeso da uaresi prognozebi 73 miznebi, miznebi, miznebi ganviTarebis axali miznebis dasaxva 74 daumTavrebeli saqme hilari rodem qlinToni genderuli uTanasworobis aRmofxvraze

25 St James’s Street London sw1a 1hg Telephone: 020 7576 8133 E-mail: worldineditor @economist.com

evropa 27 Tanaarseboba `daTvTan~ rogor unda moeqces evropa ruseTs 28 briuseli „langarze“ didi gamocdebi evropis axali gundisTvis 29 safrangeTis politikuri maraToni da misi dagvianebuli aCqareba ekonomikuri reformis gasatareblad 30 italia gamofenaze misi sixaruli da problemebi gamoifineba 30 Zalaufleba Tu layboba germaniis debatebi msoflioSi misi rolis Sesaxeb 31 Senc, berlino uZravi qonebis bumi 32 daumTavrebeli saqme espaneTs kvlav stkiva 34 gegma italiisTvis mateo renci zrdis Sesaxeb

37 `lend rover difenderi~, xsovna iyos sayvareli danjRreuli avtos dasasruli 38 TviTmfrinavis fiqrebi sad unda aSendes londonis axali aeroporti 38 sinaTle ar CavaqroT britaneTi sibneleSi darCenas gadaurCeba 39 mokrZalebuli `antanta~ fransua heisburgi britaneTis safrangeTTan urTierTobaze

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msoflio 2015 75 75

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finansebi 111 boboqari dro arastabiluroba brundeba 112 krizisi? romeli krizisi? potenciuri panikis sami SesaZlo sfero 113 Senelebuli starti sad gaizrdeba ganakveTebi da sad ara 114 wmindanebi da codvilni bankirebi ndobis dabrunebas cdiloben 115 sabanko rRveva evropelebma kapitalis bazrebi ufro metad unda gamoiyenon 116 savsebiT Camoyalibebuli mcire bankebi SeuZlebels akeTeben 116 CaZirva ufro iafi navTobis Sedegebi 117 ocnebaTa mosavali investorebi kreatiulebi unda gaxdnen 118 aqtivistis manifesti karl aikani sameTvalyureo sabWoebis pasuxismgeblobis dayenebaze mecniereba da teqnologiebi 119 win, rekordebisken rekordebis damyareba miwaze, haersa da wyalSi 120 sikvdili ukidures samxreTSi samxreT jorjia virTxebs utevs 121 jujis weliwadi mecnierebi ucnaur axal samyaroebs aRmoaCenen 122 gaSifruli genebi genetikuri monacemebis mravalmxrivi gamoyeneba 123 patara nabijebi, didi cvlilebebi alaster reinoldsi imaze, rom samecniero fantastikis Janri mecnierebis faqti xdeba

nekrologi 130 mSvidobiT, gaqcevaganmartoebis xanav teqnikas versad daemalebi

132 134 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149

kultura 125 luvri sparseTis yureSi keTili iyos Tqveni fexi kulturis axali centrSi 126 modis erTguli mimdevrebi muzeumebi podiumad iqceva 127 qaRaldgamoclili karikaturebi kalami xmalze ufro yovlisSemZlea 128 Rimilis korianteli alisas 150-e dabadebis dRis wveuleba 129 magiis momavali devid bleini iluziebsa da gonebaze

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saqarTvelo 2015* giorgi margvelaSvili saqarTvelos prezidenti irakli RaribaSvili saqarTvelos premier-ministri kaxa kalaZe energetikis ministri daviT narmania Tbilisis meri daviT sergeenko Sromis, janmrTelobisa da socialuri dacvis ministri oTar danelia soflis meurneobis ministri levan yifiani sportisa da axalgazrdobis saqmeTa ministri giorgi CogovaZe turizmis erovnuli administracia elguja xokriSvili garemosa da bunebrivi resursebis dacvis ministri ianoS hermani evrokavSiris elCi saqarTveloSi riCard norlandi aSS elCi saqarTveloSi orTvin henigi germaniis elCi saqarTveloSi viqtor doliZe parlamentis deputati daviT darCiaSvili parlamentis deputati guga canava „rakia jorjia“ irakli kovzanaZe sapartnioro fondi mamuka baxtaZe "saqarTvelos rkinigza" giorgi cikolia mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagento irakli leqvinaZe `jorjian biznes insaiTi~ roman gociriZe ekonomikuri ganviTarebis centri

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Georgia Today Group-is mier

2015

redaqtorisgan

015 welze Tu davfiqrdebiT, optimizmis `maragi~ cotaa. ori didi Sekreba wlis bolos – gaeros Sexvedra, romelic mdgradi ganviTarebis gegmebs dasaxavs, da Sekreba parizSi, romelic klimatur cvlilebebTan brZolas mieZRvneba – gviCvenebs, Tu ramdenad SeuZliaT qveynebs SeTanxmdnen planetis udides problemebTan gamklavebis gzebze. magram 2015 wlis umetesi drois ganmavlobaSi, is, rac yuradRebis umetes nawils miipyrobs, msoflios gaTiSulobebi iqneba – ekonomikuri, politikuri da kulturuli. dasavleTis ekonomikebi `rubikons uaxlovdebian~. aSS da britaneTi, romlebic win sakadrisi tempiT miiweven, federaluri sarezervo sistemis da inglisis bankis nebiT, maRali saprocento ganakveTebisken miemarTebian; evrozona da iaponia, recesiasa da deflaciaSi Cavardnis SiSiT, sapirispiro gzas airCeven, rogoricaa ufro meti monetaruli stimulireba. es finansur bazrebs ryevamde miiyvans. federaluri sarezervo sistemis mier ganakveTebis zrda, problemebi evrozonis uqnarobis gamo da wuxili CineTis ekonomikuri zrdis Sesaxeb – es yvelaferi atarebs potencials, rom periodulad panikas hqondes adgili. saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobas nacionalizmis siZlieris gamo bevr sakiTxze Seeqmneba problemebi

is, rac yuradRebis udides nawils miipyrobs, msoflios gaTiSulobebi iqneba – ekonomikuri, politikuri da kulturuli 2015 wels. dasavleTi imsjelebs, Tu ramdenad Zlierad upasuxos mzard CineTs da aramzada ruseTs. aSS-Si politikuri gaTiSuloba ufro TvalismomWreli iqneba, vidre aqamde, radgan respublikelebis mier kontrolirebad kongress saqme baraq obamasTan eqneba. kulturuli TvalsazrisiT, gansakuTrebiT STambeWdavi gaTiSuloba iCens Tavs seqsualur umciresobebTan damokidebulebis mxriv. msoflios naxevari gaxdeba ufro liberali, vidre odesme yofila. sxvagan SezRudvebi gavrceldeba. am gaTiSulobebis garSemo arsebuli xmauri bevr adamians daabrkolebs SeamCnios progresi yvela sferoSi 2015 wels. aSS-is winamZRolobiT, msoflio ekonomika cota ufro swrafad gaizrdeba, vidre 2014 wels izrdeboda. ebolas afeTqebasa da `islamuri saxelmwifos~ gaZlierebaze dasavleTis dagvianeb-

uli reaqciis Sedegebi TandaTanobiT gamoCndeba. transwynari okeanis Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekruleba TiTqmis realobaa. igive iTqmis kolumbiis mTavrobasa da FARC-is partizanebs Soris (kolumbiis revoluciuri SeiaraRebuli Zalebi) samSvidobo SeTanxmebaze; Tu bedma gagviRima, es movlena naxevar saukuneze xangrZliv brZolas wertils dausvams. zogjer teqnologiuri progresi SemaZrwunebeli iqneba, ramdenadac smartfonebi mflobelebis azrebs kiTxuloben, xolo dnm-is mimdevrobis iafi aparati genoms Sifravs, manqanebi ki inteleqtualuri komunikaciis mimarTulebiT viTardebian. silikonis velze modaSi Semova samosiviT Casacmeli teqnologia. teqnologia miswvdeba `ekonomistis~ nekrologebis redaqtors en vrousac da mas eskapizmis gamosamSvidobebel sityvas aTqmevinebs. `fainenSel Taimsis~ lusi qelevei ki, enTuziazmiT savse elis ofisebSi cxridan xuTamde samuSao grafikis dabrunebas. yvela ver SeTanxmdeba imaze, Tu ras gvimzadebs momavali an ra iqneba yvelaze mniSvnelovani; gansxvavebuli xmebis wyalobiT, `msoflio 2015 wels~ mravalferovani sakiTxavi iqneba. politikosebi reformebis monaxazs akeTeben (mateo renci italiisTvis, joko vidodo – indoneziisTvis). sxvebis fokusSi moeqceva imedi adamianuri ganviTarebis Temaze (hilari qlinToni qalebisTvis, bil geiTsi – bavSvebisa da msoflios uRaribesi adamianebisTvis). karl ikahni investorebs ideebs sTavazobs. devid bleine gvpirdeba, rom saswaulebi jer kidev SesaZlebelia im eraSi, roca nebismieri triukis ukan saidumlo mxolod im manZiliT aris daSorebuli, ramdeniTac `guglis~ saZiebo sistema. marTlac, iqneba jadosnuri momentebi, romlebic momaval wels yvela gemovnebas daakmayofilebs. mamaci gundebi moemzadebian msoflio rekordebis mosaxsnelad xmeleTze, wyalsa da haerSi. sportis gulSematkivrebs SeuZliaT mouTmenlad daelodon msoflio Tasebis trios (kriketi, ragbi da qalTa fexburTi). kinomoyvarulebi miawydebian `bondis~ axali filmis, `varskvlavuri omebis~ gagrZelebisa da `nacrisferis 50 Crdilis~ adaptirebuli filmis sanaxavad. filmebis fanebi gaixseneben, rom 2015 is weli iyo, romelSic personaJebi mogzaurobdnen `ukan momavlisken nawili I I ~-Si. momavali 12 Tvis ganmavlobaSi droSi mogzaurobas adgili ar eqneba, magram eqstraordinaruli kosmosuri mogzauroba fantazias daipyrobs: daaxloebiT cxrawliani mogzaurobisa da miliardi milis gavlis Semdeg, `nasas~ sahaero xomaldi New Horizons ivlisSi planeta plutons miaRwevs. yvela misi gaTiSulobis miuxedavad, msoflios Sansi eqneba saswaulma gaaerTianos.

deniel franklini redaqtori, The World in 2015

2015

liderebi

dasavleTis diskomforti „demokratiaze nerviuloba kvlav amotivtivdeba 2015 wels“, – ambobs jon maiqlTveiTi

015 wlis yvela prognozs Soris, arcerTia iseTi meore – imis miuxedavad, ramdenad TavSekavebulad galanusafrTxo, rogorc idea, rom did demokratiebSi ZRaven dasavleli politikosebi iseT populistebs, rogorexalxi TavianTi liderebisgan udides imedgacruebas bic qalbatoni le peni da batoni farajia, demokratiuli igrZnobs. britaneTSi, espaneTsa da kanadaSi arCevnebi istebliSmenti mainc moumzadebelia dRevandeli gamowvevebis moqalaqeebs imis Sanss miscems, rom frustraciis nawili Riad mimarT. evropaSi es gansakuTrebiT naTeli 2015 wels iqneba, gamoxatos – albaT iseTi nonkorformistebis sasargeblod, ramdenadac evro krizisis meeqvse weliwadSi Sedis, xolo konrogorebicaa naijel faraji da misi gaerTianebuli samefos tinentis liderebs masTan gamklavebis usasrulo SesaZledamoukideblobis partia. amerikeli amomrCeveli, romelmac blobebi CauvardaT. SegiZliaT daelodoT uamrav msjelobas brazi 2014 wlis Sualedur arCevnebSi gadmoafrqvia, axla liderobis marcxze 2015 wels, rodesac uinston CerCilis garkidev ufro rTuli Cixis winaSea, radgan respublikelebis dacvalebis 50 da oto fon bismarkis dabadebidan 200 wlisTavi kongresi demokrat prezidents upirispirdeba. amerikelebs iqneba. sul mcire, ekonomikuri gajansaReba eqnebaT gulis gasaxarad. aSS-is liderebma ufro naklebi saziano Caidines, vidre recesiaSeparul evrokavSirSi, sadac 2014 wlis saparlamento evropisam, magram maT seriozul politikas kvlav partiuli arCevnebSi amomrCeveli cvlilebas gabrazebuli iTxovda da qulebis Cawera urCevniaT. 114-e kongresma, romelic vaSingsinamdvileSi Zalian mcired dakmayofilda, ganwyoba ufro ton disi-Si Seikribeba 2015 wlis ianvarSi, SesaZloa sakanonmZime iqneba. igive SeiZleba iTqvas iaponiazec, sadac 2015 is mdeblo umoqmedobis axali rekordi weli iqneba, roca amomrCevels abenomikis mimarT moTmineba daamyaros, ramdenadac respublikelegamoeleva. bi iseT kanonproeqtebs daweren, romTqven, albaT, ikiTxavT – `mere ra?~ dasavleli polilebsac, ician, rom baraq obama vetos tikosebi arasodes uyvardaT, da amomrCeveli iSviaTad iyo daadebs. kmayofili. magram es ignorirebas ukeTebs briuselsa sam rames, romlebic demokratiis mdgoda vaSingtonSi mareobasTan dakavSirebiT, 2015 wels Rigamefebuli ufunrebulebaTa gadafasebis uamrav mcdeloqcioba kidev ufro bamde miva. SesamCnevi iqneba upirvelesad, arapopularobisa da disdasavluri detancirebis masStabma dasavleTSi gansacvimokratiis gamo frebel dones miaRwia. 2004 wlis Semdeg arsebuli mesame amerikelebis gamokveTilma umravlesobam wuxilis mizeziT: gelaps ganucxada, rom marTvis arsebuli axla ukve arsebobs aziuri alternativa. wesiT ukmayofiloa, xolo im adamianTa avtokratiisa da modernizaciis Cinuri ricxvma, visac igi ukiduresad mobezrda, versia gvarwmunebs, rom grZelvadiani 80%-s ramdenadme gadaaWarba (ufro maRadagegmvis pirobebSi igi ukeTesi arCevania. li, vidre `uotergeitis~ dros). dasavleCineTSi Raribebs bevrad swrafi winsvla Tis erT-erT yvelaze warmatebul politiaqvT, vidre maT `kolegebs~ demokratiul kur manqanas – britaneTis konservatiul indoeTSi; aqedan modis indoeTis premierpartias, 1950-ian wlebSi 3 milioni wevri ministris – narendra modis enTuziazmic, hyavda; maisis arCevnebSi partia 200 000rom CineTisgan iswavlos. CineTs aucileze naklebi wevriT ibrZolebs. 2015 wels blad eqneba problemebi 2015 wels – ganfransua olandma SesaZloa safrangeTis sakuTrebiT imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom prezidentis arapopularobis sakuTari mzardi saSualo klasi brazobs korufcireitingi moxsnas da misi 13%-iani reitis, cudi momsaxurebisa da Tavisuflebis ingi erTniSna ciframde Semcirdes. amiT ararsebobis gamo. Tumca honkongSi de`erovnuli frontis~ marin le peni kargad mokratiis momxre protestantebmac ki isargeblebs. dasavleTs unda dauwyon yureba imaze personificirebuli lideroba

liderobis marcxis Sesaxeb uamrav msjelobas unda elodeT

jon maiqlTveiTi: mTavari redaqtori, The Economist

msoflio 2015

liderebi

fiqrSi, SeuZlia Tu ara demokratias kargi mmarTvelobis motana. ase rom, dasavleTis diskomforti saSiSia. demokratiebis warumatebloba, rom saqmeebi bolomde miiyvanon, gaaCens SekiTxvebs Ria sazogadoebis sxva komponentebTan dakavSirebiTac, rogorebicaa presis Tavisufleba, Tavisufali bazari da SedarebiT Tavisufali sazRvrebi. populistebi ganagrZoben rTul SekiTxvebze martivi pasuxebis gacemis moTxovnas. memarjvene flangze emigrantebi „gantevebis vacebi“ iqnebian da politikosebi nacionalizmiT iTamaSeben. memarcxeneebisTvis, simdidris gadanawileba seriozuli Tema iqneba.

CerCilis „sulis gamoZaxeba“

`metismetad bevrs nu eliT dasavleTis dagvianebuli reaqciisgan~, – gvafrTxilebs edvard qari

„w

esrigi! wesrigi!“– yovel oTxSabaTs britaneTis parlamentSi, susti, moguduli SeZaxili gadafaravs xolme premier-ministris SekiTxvebis mquxare xmas. iSviaTia, rom am vokalurma fexis bakunma parlamentis wevrebis racionaluri debatebi didi xniT aRadginos. igivenairad, sagareo politikis eqspertebi vedrebiT iTxoven imas, rasac `msoflio wesrigs~ uwodeben. saerTaSoriso `qsovili~ `icviTeba~, – SiSoben isini. iqneba es qaosi axlo aRmosavleTSi, ruseTis mier ukrainis nawilis mitaceba, CineTis agresiuli taqtika mis gafarToebul sanapiro wylebSi Tu ebolas epidemia dasavleT afrikaSi, msoflio ufskrulisken mieqaneba. 2015 wels wesrigisken mowodeba nawilobriv Sesruldeba, magram rogorc batoni spikeris daZabulobebis dros, mosalodneli qaosis gancda mainc darCeba. zustad axla msoflio uCveulod Zneli samarTavi Cans. moqalaqeebs mobezrdaT elitebi, romlebic maT marTaven: ukrainelebi win aRudgnen TavianTi qveynis „kleptoman“ nomenklaturas, studentebma hong-kongis centraluri ubani daikaves da evropis populistebi, rogorebicaa safrangeTis nacionaluri fronti da gaerTianebuli samefos damoukideblobis partia, scenars weren, rogor daamxon teqnokratebi briuselSi. `islamuri saxelmwifos~ jihadistebi ngreviT imuqrebian axlo aRmosavleTSi da mis miRma. maSin, roca demokratiuli mTavrobebi sustebi Canan da yoymanoben, avtoritarulebi ki TavianTi oponentebis dapatimrebiT arian dakavebuli, medias `sapires~ ukeTeben da mezoblebs ipyroben. ukve gasagebia, rom raRac ver aris rigze, roca uxeSxmiani sagareo politikis eqspertTagan uxucesi – henri kisinjeri wers wigns saxelwodebiT `msoflio wesrigi~, da gvafrTxilebs, rom `qaosi axlovdeba~. nawilobriv, is sirTule, romlis winaSec msoflio am movlenebTan gamklavebis TvalsazrisiT aRmoCnda, isaa, rom molodinebi, Tu risi miRweva SeuZliaT mTavrobebs sagareo politikaSi, bevrad uswrebs imas, rac SesaZlebelia. sabWoTa kavSiris dangrevis Semdeg, amerikuli Zalaufleba SeuzRudavi iyo. imis magivrad, rom gamarjveba gamoecxadebina da „Sin wasuliyo“, msoflos sxvadasxva adgilas aSS ufro metad aRmoCnda CarTuli, vidre odesme. erTxans intervencia nebisyofisa da brZnuli politikis Temis STabeWdilebas tovebda, magram bolo aTwleulma es Tvalsazrisi miamiturad warmoaCina. msoflio areulia. rogorc amboben, politikaSi warmateba ar aris srulyofileba; esaa marcxidan marcxamde siaruli enTuziazmis dakargvis gareSe.

edvard qari: ucxoeTis redaqtori, The Economist

am `Sxamian~ fonze, ori didi debati unda daiwyos. erTi maTgani saxelmwifo reformis dawyebaa. produqtiulobisa da teqnologiebis moxmarebis TvalsazrisiT, sajaro seqtori dasavleTSi mTeli TaobiT CamorCeba kerZo seqtors. sakredito krizisis Semdeg, dasavleTis mTavrobebma valebs 13 trilioni dolari daumates, da imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom asakiani mosaxleoba jandacvas da pensiebs ufro metad iTxovs, vidre odesme, bevr maTgans fuli uTavdeba. xolo rogorc CerCilma Tqva, `rodesac fuli gviTavdeba, fiqri unda daviwyoT~. ramdenadac 2015 wels debatebi sajaro seqtoris Sesaxeb iseT qveynebSic ki vrceldeba, rogoric safrangeTia, dasavlelma politikosebma SesaZloa misi `eqo~ aziaSi ixilon. zogierTi umciresi zomis, yvelaze efeqtiani saxelmwifoebi, kerZod – singapuri, ara mxolod dasavleTis miRma mdebareobs, aramed axali mzardi qveynebi – CineTi, indonezia da indoeTi – aseve cdiloben keTildReobaze damyarebuli saxelmwifoebis aSenebas. mosalodneli ar aris, rom isini dasavluri gaberili `leviaTanebis~ kopirebas moindomeben. meore debatebi TviT demokratias exeba. rogorc Zvel meomars, romelic metismetad SeeCvia asparezobebze gamarjvebas, dasavlur demokratiasac cota `Ripi moedo“. aSS-Si araferia gansakuTrebiT demokratiuli fulis politikis aRzevebaSi, kongresis mier faruli blokirebis procedurebSi an saarCevno ubnebis sazRvrebiT manipulirebaSi. marTlac, es yvelaferi mogvagonebs me-18 saukunis inglisis miyruebul patara qalaqebs, romlebmac damfuZnebeli mamebi gaamwares. evrokavSiris elitebi, romlebic yovelTvis ufrTxian popularul azrs, nel-nela mieCvivnen, rom saqmeebi `ukana karis~ meSveobiT moagvaron; evroparlamentis tragikomedia ufro niRabia, vidre gamosavali. demokratia mmarTvelobis yvelaze cudi formaa, sxvebs Tu ar CavTvliT. es aris CerCilis citatebis niaRvridan kidev erTi, romelsac damdeg wels moismenT. igi marTali iyo: demokratia mainc ufro moqnili da samarTliania, vidre romeliRac alternativa. magram es ar amarTlebs naklovanebebis gamosworebis mxriv mis warumateblobas. da 2015 kargi welia dasawyisisTvis. n

msoflio uwesrigoba

liderebi

msoflio 2015

problemebi ar mTavrdeba

pozitiuri mxridan SevxedoT ufro realisturi molodiniT aRWurvilma optimistebma SeiZleba miuTiTon sam mizezze, ris gamoc maT 2015 wels raRac ukeTesis imedi aqvT. pirveli isaa, rom demokratebs dro sWirdebaT axali safrTxeebisa da saSiSroebebisTvis pasuxis gasacemad. magram roca isini ase iqcevian, ufro metad axali politikis erTgulebi arian xolme. bevri ramea gasakritikebeli im dayovnebaSi, rac msoflios dasWirda, vidre ebolas seriozulad miiRebda. SeiZleba aTiaTasobiT adamiani daiRupos, vidre sneulebis gakontroleba moxdeba. aseve, imedisgamacruebeli iyo evropuli yoymani ruseTis winaaRmdeg sanqciebis SemoRebaze, roca man yirimis aneqsia ganaxorciela da aRmosavleT ukrainaSi problemebi Seqmna. Tumca, roca am tragediebma dRis wesrigamde miaRwies, mTavrobebi qmedebaze gadavidnen. pesimizmis Sesamcireblad meore mizezi adaptaciaa. 1945 wlis Semdeg, evropaSi germanelebi yovelTvis mxars uWerdnen ruseTTan CarTulobas, magram axladgaaqtiurebuli germania ruseTs safrTxed aRiqvams. igivenairad, 2015 wels, CineTi da iaponiac daiwyeben TavianTi gansxvavebulobebis gverdze gadadebas. ara imitom, rom romelimes surs sakuTar grZel teritoriul konfliqtSi – aRmosavleT CineTis zRvaSi kldiani miwebis gamo ukan daixios, aramed imitom, rom orives sWirdeba ekonomikuri winsvla, erTmaneTs Soris mdgradi vaWrobisa da investiciebis wyalobiT. da mesame mizezi – aSS. eqspertebi akritikeben baraq obamas. maTgan zogi ambobs, rom prezidenti susti da dabneulia, xolo zogi – rom aSS sustdeba. es braldebebi azianebs obamas azrovnebas da Zalian abuqebs aSS-is mier Zalauflebis dakargvas. prezidenti, romelmac pakistanSi specialuri Zalebi miavlina osama bin ladenis Sesapyrobad, sulac ar aris marcxs Seguebuli, xolo SeiaraRebuli Zalebi, romlebmac misia ganaxorcieles, ucbad ver gaxdeboda susti. magram bolo ramdenime wlis ganmav-

zustad axla msoflio uCveulod rTulia samarTavad

lobaSi batonma obamam wamoayena argumenti, rom `msoflio policielis~ rolSi aSS marto ver iqneba – qveynebs, romlebic Tavisufali vaWrobisa da kanonis uzenaesobiT (rogori arasrulyofilic unda iyos) kurTxeuli `amerikuli liderobiT~ sargebloben da romlebic iziareben farTod aRiarebul dasavlur Tvalsazriss adamianis uflebebis Sesaxeb, pasuxismgebloba aqvT, rom SeerTebul Statebs wesrigis SenarCunebaSi daexmaron. analitikuri TvalsazrisiT, es argumenti sasargebloa, magram politikurad warumatebeli aRmoCnda. roca batoni obama Tavisi qveynis Zalauflebis zRvars afiqsirebs, mokavSireebi cvalebad amerikul erTgulebas amCneven maTi usafrTxoebis mimarT, xolo aSS-is konkurentebi moskovsa da pekinSi situaciaSi Carevis Sanss xedaven. batoni obamasTvis gakveTilia, rom radganac sagareo politikas sZuls vakuumi, man lideris Tavisufali adgili unda Seavsos. zustad amis gakeTeba daiwyo man axlo aRmosavleTSi, roca `islamuri saxelmwifos~ winaaRmdeg koalicia Seqmna, Tumca maSinac ki samiznis aRmosaCenad specialuri Zalebis gamoyenebasTan da erayis jarebisa da siriis partizanebis datreningebasTan dakavSirebiT misma aSkara yoymanma, misias Ziri gamouTxara. koaliciis Seqmna rTuli saqmea, magram obamas sWirdeba, rom Tavisi bolo ori wlis ritorikis sawinaaRmdegod wavides – aSS axerxebs sxvebsac meti tvirTi atarebinos ara maSin, roca Tavad ukan ixevs, aramed maSin, roca TviTon erTveba msoflios problemebSi. gakveTili sxva qveynebisTvisac mZimea: evropelebi evrokavSiris stagnaciis „fsiqologiur dramaSi“ arian CaZirulebi. bevri ufro didi mzardi qveyana, rogorebicaa indoeTi, brazilia da samxreT afrika, Tan `Zia semis~ imedzea da Tan cxvirs ubzuebs mas, radgan globaluri superZalis dasustebaSi isini sakuTari regionuli gavlenis gazrdas xedaven. magram sxvaze gadabralebisa da adgilobrivi ambiciis kombinacia Zalian destruqciulia. roca globaluri ekonomikuri da politikuri TanamSromloba kriziss ganicdis – iqneba es omis, epidemiis Tu ubralod ignorirebis gamo – yvela es qveyanac gasaWirSia. Tu 2015 weli didi gaumjobesebis wlad Seiracxeba, aSS-s sxvebic unda daexmaron. n

msoflio 2015

liderebi transatlantikuri naprali

federaluri rezervis mTavar ganakveTs gamoklebuli evropis centraluri bankis ganakveTi wlis bolos, procentebSi

0.95

gzebis gayofa

0. 05

0 -0 .9

-0 .9

2009

2010

2011

-0 .65

-0 .15

`msoflios mTavar regionebSi politika sxvadasxva mimarTulebiT warimarTeba~, – prognozirebs leo abruzese

entralur bankebs recesiis gamowvevis (da gankurnebis) xangrZlivi istoria aqvT. 2015 wels msoflios yvelaze mniSvnelovani fulis `mbrZaneblebi~ sruliad gansxvavebul `bilikebs~ daadgebian, ris gamoc weliwadi mSfoTvare gaxdeba. mTlianobaSi, globaluri ekonomika cota ufro swrafad gaizrdeba, vidre 2014 wels, ramdenadac biznesebi – gansakuTrebiT aSS-sa da aziaSi, ufro met samuSao adgils Seqmnian da momxmareblebi aqtiur xarjvaze gadavlen. Tumca imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom bazrebis mesveurebi weliwadis umetesi drois ganmavlobaSi Sewuxebuli iqnebian saprocento ganakveTebis cvlilebebis gamo (rac centraluri bankebis damsaxurebaa), mwvave Sokis riski arasasiamovnod maRalia. did centralur bankebs iSviaTad uwarmoebiaT erTmaneTisgan aseTi gansxvavebuli politika. aSS-is federaluri sarezervo sistema da inglisis banki, finansur bazrebze arsebuli wuxilisa da sxva sferoebSi vardnis SiSis miuxedavad, 2015 wels TavianT mTavar saprocento ganakveTebs gazrdian. evropis centraluri banki, piriqiT – kidev erTi recesiis Tavidan aridebis imediTa da deflaciis mogeriebis mizniT, evrozonis bankebs da biznesebs fuls gamouyofs. iaponiis banki Tavisi rekorduli stimulirebis gegmis ganxorcielebis SuawelSia, Tumca ekonomika erTgvarad `karuselze trialebda~, Tavis momaval nabijebTan dakavSirebiT ki banks Camouyalibebels tovebda. CineTis saxalxo banki, romlis globaluri gavlena pataraa imasTan SedarebiT, rac oTx did banks aqvs, aseve rTul situaciaSia. igi gaWedilia Sesustebuli ekonomikis stimulirebis valdebulebasa (is ufro met fuls Cadebs komerciul bankebSi) da valebze mdgari finansuri seqtoris damorCilebis aucileblobas Soris. gansxvavebul `bilikebs~ gansxvavebuli bedi aqvs. aSS-is ekonomikuri gajansaReba bolos da bolos gamZle Cans. 2014 wlis dasawyisSi, zamTris sezonuri vardnis garda, bolo 18 Tvis ganmavlobaSi ekonomika wliuri 3%-ze didi tempiT izrdeboda, rac tendenciaze maRalia. amerikelma damsaqmeblebma 2014 wels 2.5 milionze meti samuSao adgili Seqmnes, yvelaze meti bolo 8 wlis ganmavlobaSi, da 2015 wels kvlav am dones miuaxlovdebian. sabinao sfero srulebiT ar dabrunebia Zvel pozicias 2008-2009 wlebis krizisis Semdeg, magram meti gaumjobesebaa mosalodneli. 2015 wels aSS mowinave ekonomikis lideri gaxdeba da daaxloebiT 3%-iT gaizrdeba, rac saukeTeso Sedegia bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi. federaluri sarezervo sistemis mSvidobismoyvare xelmZRvaneli janet ieleni saprocento ganakveTebs bevriT ar gazrdis manam, sanam xelfasebi ufro swrafad ar gaizrdeba. esec 2015 wels daiwyeba. britaneTis ekonomikac gamosworebis gzazea. miuxedavad imisa, rom mTavroba mkacri politikis erTguli rCeba, mrewvelobisa da servisebis industriaSi saqme kargad iyo, gansakuTrebiT (bolos da bolos, es xom britaneTia...) qonebisa da finansebis sferoebSi. momxmareblebi kvlav wuwuneben valebis gamo da mtkivneulad ganicdian sesxebze fasebis zrdas, amitomac inglisis banks ganakveTebis metismetad mkveTrad an metismetad swrafad gazrda ar endomeba. xarjvas waexmareba dasaqmebis mxriv ukeTesi situacia, gazrdili sabanko krediti da binebze momatebuli fasebiT Seqmnili simdidris efeqti

leo abruzese: globaluri prognozebis direqtori, Economist Intelligence Unit

-2.4 2008

2012

2013

2014*

2015*

*prognozis wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit

(zogierTisTvis). zrda 2.5%-s miaRwevs. evrozonis gegmebi ufro zomieria: mesame recesiis arideba Svid weliwadSi. mas warmateba eqneba – ubralod, odnav – magram kidev erTi imedgacruebis weli elis. evropis Tavze deflaciis `aCrdilia~: samomxmareblo fasebi 1%ze cota ufro metiT gaizrdeba. evropis `cixesimagre~ – germania, gasaocrad sustad gamoiyureba, ramdenadac ruseTSi mimdinare sabrZolo moqmedebebi adgilobrivad biznesis ganwyobis vardnas iwvevs. evropis centraluri „banki maxeSia“ gabmuli, misi prezidentis – mario dragis mflangvelur emociasa da xelmomWirne germanelebs Soris, romlebsac arasodes unaxavT stimulis iseTi gegma, rogorsac isurvebdnen. marTlac, Tu evropis problemebi aSS-sa da britaneTs gadaedeba, maTma centralurma bankebma SesaZloa isec gadawyviton, rom ganakveTebi arsebul doneze SeinarCunon.

ufro uswormasworo, magram ufro naTeli roca aSS-Si bolos da bolos saprocento ganakveTebi gaizrdeba, fuli kvlav misken daiwyebs dinebas, anu Sors ganviTarebadi ekonomikebisgan, romlebsac igi isev sWirdebaT. perioduli, Tumca xanmokle panikis Semotevebi 2015 wels mosalodnelia, radganac aqtivebis menejerebi fuls iseTi adgilebidan gaiTxoven, rogorebicaa TurqeTi, samxreT afrika, da mas aSS-sa da britaneTSi gagzavnian. ramdenadac federaluri sarezervo fondis oficialuri saprocento ganakveTebi izrdeba da evropis centraluri bankisa ki TiTqmis nulis tolia, sainvesticio „naprali“ amerikuli aqtivebis sasargeblod gaizrdeba. es dolars zeviT ubiZgebs da aRadgens brwyinvalebis nawils, romelic man uaxlesi recesiis yvelaze cud dros dakarga. 2015 wels, aziis gigantebi naTeli gzis sapovnelad ibrZoleben. deflaciis winaaRmdeg iaponiis brZola, rogorc Cans, amarTlebs, Tumca bolodroindeli fasebis zrdaTagan umetesobam saTave 2014 wlis aprilSi, samomxmareblo gadasaxadis zrdidan aiRo. gadasaxadebis zrda (kidev erTi 2015 wlis oqtomberSia dagegmili) iaponiis mier `valis mTis~ Semcirebis dawyebasTan dakavSirebiT dadebuli pirobis niSania, magram isini qveynis sust gajansaRebas sariskos xdian. maSin, roca CineTi stimulsa da kontrols Soris meryeobs, indoeTs surs zrdis daCqareba – magram ara inflaciis. ganviTarebadi azia mainc yvelaze swrafad mzardi regioni iqneba da bevr sxva qveyanasac cota ufro maRali zrda eqneba, vidre 2014 wels hqonda. magram evropisgan `inficirebis~ safrTxe da saprocento ganakveTebis cvalebadoba, 2015 wels uCveulod riskians xdis. n

ganviTarebadi azia mainc yvelaze swrafad mzardi regioni iqneba

liderebi

msoflio 2015

Savi Wiris gakveTilebi `ebolas afeTqebam epidemiebis mimarT politikuri damokidebulebebi unda Secvalos~, – ambobs jofri qari

olitikosebi xSirad saubroben ama Tu im daavadebis winaaRmdeg brZolis gamocxadebaze. ebolas epidemia, romelic dasavleT afrikaSi 2014 wels gamoCnda, dagvarwmunebs, rom 2015 is welia, rodesac isini amas gulisxmoben. ebolas winaaRmdeg pirdapiri RonisZiebebis garda, daavadebis wyaros dasadgenad da ukve gavrcelebuli epidemiis Casaqrobad ukeTesi sistemis Seqmnis Temaze uamravi saubari da ramdenime qmedeba ganxorcieldeba. dRis wesrigidan aTwliani moxsnis mere, idea, rom gadamdebi daavadebebi usafrTxoebisa da humanitaruli problemebia, kvlav ganxilvis Tema xdeba. es idea modis da midis. roca igi bolojer gaCnda, saqme Sidss exeboda. miuxedavad imisa, rom Sidsi pirvelad aSS-Si aRmoaCines, misi gamomwvevi virusis HIV-is kvali umal afrikamde mivida. Tavdapirvelad, Sidsi erTnairad iyo safrTxe mdidari da Raribi samyarosTvis. aman, da aseve im faqtmac, rom virusma bolo mouRo afrikis profesiul klasebs da amdenad kontinentis ekonomikur ganviTarebas daemuqra, Sedegad moitana kargad dafinansebuli da masTan sabrZolvelad sakmaod warmatebuli RonisZiebebi. TumcaRa, warmateba is gaxldaT, rom Sidsi sagazeTo saTaurebidan gaqra. momdevno safrTxeebi (mZime mwvave respiratoruli sindromi da gripis sxva saxeobebi) ki kvlavac mZvinvarebdnen. ise rom, politikurma yuradRebam infeqciidan sxva mimarTulebiT gadainacvla. am yuradRebis dasabruneblad ebola gaxda saWiro.

vnebaTaRelva mdidari qveynebis politikosTa upirvelesi amocana iqneba ebolas Sekaveba dasavleT afrikis SedarebiT patara nawilSi – iq, sadac virusi mZvinvarebs. ra Tqma unda, es isaa, rac am politikosebis amomrCevlebs yvelaze metad awuxebT, magram es Tema epidemiologiuri TvalsazrisiTac aris saintereso. calkeuli SemTxvevebi CrdiloeT amerikasa da evropaSi, gasamklaveblad sakmaod martivi iqneba. maT SedarebiT kargad organizebuli jandacvis sistemis sruli ZalebiT aRmofxvrian. magram Tuki virusi, romlis gavrcelebac adamianebTan fizikur kontaqtzea damokidebuli, iseT gadatvirTul qveyanaSi gavrceldeba, rogoric nigeriaa, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT indoeTze, Sedegi katastrofuli iqneba. maSasadame, ufro daxuruli sazRvrebi da mgzavrebis Semowmeba TiTqmis gardauvalia. samxedro metafora rom moviSvelioT, `frontis xazi~ gaxsnilia – radganac epidemiasTan brZola iq, sadac is ukve modebulia, dainficirebulebis izolirebiTa da mkurnalobis gziT, infeqciis mTavari budis moSlas niSnavs. gareSe samyarodan eqimebsa da eqTnebs SeuZliaT daxmareba moklevadian perspeqtivaSi – iseve, rogorc ara samedicino muSaxels (ufro savaraudod, ucxoeTis jarebs), raTa maT yvelaze rTuli samuSao Seasrulon. rac ufro cudad wava saqme, miT ufro metad gaxdebian isini saWiro da epidemiisTvis pasuxis gacema gacilebiT metad daemsgavseba namdvil oms. magram rogorc ki `mteri~ (anu virusi) damarcxdeba, politikosebma samxedro analogi cota didxans unda gaagrZelon. rogorc axlo aRmosavleTis amaswinandelma movlenebma leo abruzese: globaluri prognozebis direqtori, Economist Intelligence Unit

gviCvena, brZnuli ar aris, rom ubralod gamarjveba gamoacxado da Sin waxvide. Tu nangrevebidan raRac gamZles aaSeneb, maSin naklebad savaraudoa, rom ukan dabruneba dagWirdes. afrikisa da avadmyofobis SemTxvevaSi, es ukeTesi sazogadoebrivi jandacvis sistemis Seqmnas da imis gadamowmebas niSnavs, rom qveynebs, sadac epidemia gavrcelda, adamianuri da finansuri resursebic aqvT am sistemebis funqcionirebisTvis. SemTxveviToba araa, rom ebola gaCnda im adgilebSi (gvinea, liberia da siera leone), sadac sityvebi `jandacvis sistema~ – ubralod, xumrobaa. garda im xalxis daxmarebisa, visac es dauyovnebliv sWirdeba, jandacvis sistema gamafrTxilebeli kunZulebis rols asrulebs, roca epidemia iCens xolme Tavs. Tumca gamafrTxilebeli sistema rom muSaobdes, xalxs misi unda sjerodes. da aq aris, albaT, is bolo `raRac~, rac 2015 wels unda moxdes – damokidebulebis Secvla. politikosebsac, da maT amomrCevelsac sWirdebaT TavianT qmedebas ufro meti sifrTxiliT moekidon da undodeT, rom keTili survilebiT gamowveuli im msjelobis miteveba SeZlon, romelic retrospeqtivaSi mcdari aRmoCnda. advilia dascino adamianebs `mglis~ daZaxebis gamo maSin, roca mgeli ar modis, rogorc moxda britaneTSi `SeSlili Zroxis~ daavadebis adamianuri versiis dros. ebola da msgavsi hemoragiuli cxelebebi bolo ramdenime aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi ramdenjerme gaCnda, ramac globaluri SfoTva ki gamoiwvia, magram amas mxolod lokaluri zarali moyva. magram gaiTvaliswineT, ra moxdeboda romeliRac maTgani rom masobrivad gavrcelebuliyo. imis codna, Tu rodis unda daaWiro `gangaSis Rilaks~, maradiuli problemaa. magram sazogadoebamac da politikosebmac unda gaiTavison, rom vidre safrTxis buneba naTeli gaxdeba, masze mometebuli reaqcia ufro urisko midgomaa, vidre naklebi reaqcia. cota awiTlebuli saxe namdvilad ukeTesia, vidre bevri saflavi. n

meti Caketili sazRvari da mgzavrebis Semowmeba TiTqmis gardauvalia

`frontis xazze~ – siera leoneSi

liderebi

ganadgureba qvemodan da zemodan zani minton bidosi globaluri biznesisTvis arastabilur wels winaswarmetyvelebs

aqtobrivad yvela firma yvela industriaSi cifrulma revoluciam Searyia. arc erT ufros aRmasrulebels ar SeuZlia ugulebelyos mobiluri kompiutingis Semoteva, didi monacemebi, xelovnuri inteleqti da a.S. am axal teqnologiebs moaqvT dapireba efeqtianobis uzarmazar sikeTeze, magram badeben aseve imis safrTxesac, rom silikonis velis romeliRac axali biznesi gadaylapavT. jerjerobiT, ryevebi uCveulod sada fonze xdeboda. msoflio ekonomika Senelebuli iyo, magram SedarebiT stabiluri: globaluri mSp TiTqmis igive (neli), wliuri 3%-iani tempiT gaizarda 2012 wlis Semdeg. finansur bazrebzec cvalebadoba dabali iyo, da aqciebis fasebi umetesad izrdeboda. neli zrda Cveulebriv kargi ambavi ar aris biznesisTvis, magram ucnauria, rom farTo ekonomikuri stabiluroba teqnologiisgan Seqmnili daZabulobis gamklavebas daexmara. swrafad cvalebad industriebSi axali kapitalis xarjvis Sesaxeb rTuli gadawyvetilebebis miRebis nacvlad, mTavarma aRmasrulebelma oficrebma mogeba sakuTari wilebis gamosyidvas daaxarjes. aSS-Si, aseTi gamosyidvebis tempma wliur rekordul dones – 500 miliard dolars miaRwia 2014 wlis SualedSi. gazrdilma mogebam aseve biZgi misca Serwymebsa da SeZenebs (M&A). msgavsi garigebebis Rirebulebam mosalodnelia, rom 2014 wels 3 trilion dolars gadaaWarbos, radgan firmebi, mediiT dawyebuli da jandacviT damTavrebuli, teqnologiuri Zvrebis epicentrSi erTmaneTis SeZenis gziT sakuTari poziciebis dacvas cdiloben (da zogjer, aSS-is SemTxvevaSi, sagadasaxado valdebulebebsac amcireben).

ormagi wnexi 2015 wels es urTierTSevseba dasruldeba. bosebi ukve veRar daeyrdnobian finansuri bazrebis stabilurobas, rogorc sakuTar industriaSi kraxis SemaCerebel bufers, radgan makrogaremo kidev ufro arasaimedo gaxdeba da mikroekonomikuri aRmavlobac gauaresebis gzazea. cifruli revolucia temps akrefs. dRevandel 2.8 miliardTan SedarebiT, 2016 wlis bolos, 4.5 miliard adamians eqneba smartfoni. im Tanxis naxevari, romelsac firmebi sainformacio teqnologiebze xarjaven, 2016 wels qlaud kompiutingze daixarjeba. kidev ufro meti samuSao adgili Canacvldeba an gadakeTdeba. `ubers~ – firmas san-franciskodan, romelic zani minton bidosi: biznesmovlenebis redaqtori, The Economist

msoflio 2015

dedamiwis garSemo qalaqebSi taqsiT momsaxurebas anadgurebs, amJamad 7000 mZRoli hyavs londonSi, 2016 wlis dasawyisSi ki varaudobs, rom 42 000 eyoleba. amasobaSi, 2015 wels, biznesebic ufro tradiciuli tipis ganadgurebis safrTxis winaSe dadgebian, ramdenadac aqciebis fasebi, saprocento ganakveTebi da valutebi – yvela arastabiluri xdeba. zrdis naprali arastabilurobis erT-erTi wyaro iqneba: aSS da didi britaneTi 2015 welSi ise Seabijeben, rom maTi ekonomika SedarebiT karg situaciaSi iqneba da am qveynebis centralur bankebs saprocento ganakveTebis zrdis dawyebis imedi eqnebaT. evros zona, iaponia da ganviTarebadi msoflios umetesi nawili 2015 wels neli zrdiT an negatiurad daiwyebs. mosalodnelia, rom evropis centraluri bankic da iaponiis bankic savaluto politikas 2015 welsac Searbileben. es zrda da saprocento ganakveTebis „naprali“ dolars gaamyarebs ienisa da evros winaaRmdeg. garkveulwilad, 2015 wels, dolari-evros gadacvlis kursi gaTanabrdeba. ufro Zlieri dolari da ganviTarebad samyaroSi Senelebuli zrda aqciebis fasebzec uaryofiTad imoqmedebs (amerikis S&P-is 500-eulSi Semavali firmebi TavianTi Semosavlebis 40%-s sazRvargareT iReben) da ramdenadac ndoba iryeva, gamosyidvebisa da Serwyma-SeZenis tempi iklebs. finansuri bazrebi nervuli iqneba. Sokis mimarT gulgrilobis nacvlad (rogorc amas wina wlebSi akeTebdnen), investorebs cud ambebze Zlieri reaqcia eqnebaT. gavlena yvela firmaze erTnairi ar iqneba. neli zrdisa da Zlieri dolaris ormag `Wirs~ Soris gaWedil, ganviTarebad ekonomikebs gansakuTrebiT rTuli weli eqnebaT. maT teqnologiebic Seaviwroveben, ramdenadac ufro da ufro meti amocanis avtomatizeba moxdeba, rac iafi Sromis SedarebiT upiratesobas Seamcirebs. kompaniebs evrozonaSi aseve rTuli dro eliT. iq politikosebi Sexla-SemoxlaSi iqnebian da maSin, roca ekonomika recesiasa da deflacias `earSiyeba~, maTi margi qmedebis koeficienti Semcirdeba. regulatorebi daabrkoleben firmebis Zalisxmevas, rom cifrul revolucias daewion. cifruli momsaxurebebis sferoSi erTiani bazris Seqmnis mimarTulebiT samarcxvinod mcire progresia. amis nacvlad, evropuli konkurenciis xelisufleba did teqnologiur firmebs uxeSi gamoZiebebiT daereva. biznesebs bolo ramdenime wlis ganmavlobaSi advili gza ar hqoniaT. teqnologiuri revoluciis wiaRSi kompaniebis gaZRola rTulia – maSinac ki, roca finansuri bazrebi loialurobas iCenen. magram maTi gaZRola kidev ufro rTulia maSin, roca ngreva erTdroulad `qvemodan~ da `zemodan~ xdeba. moemzadeT globaluri biznesisTvis, da yvelaze rTuli wlisaTvis – 2008-2009 wlis recesiis Semdeg. n

dolari-evros gacvliTi kursi gaTanabrdeba

liderebi

msoflio 2015

gayofili gamosaxulebebi `uamrav qveyanas aqvs iseTi regioni, romelsac damoukidebloba surs. nu SeuwyobT xels~, – irwmuneba jon grimondi

aiqs-paikos SeTanxmebis 100 wlisTavi, romelmac otomanTa imperiis is provinciebi, arabeTis naxevarkunZuls rom ar miekuTvneboda, britaneTsa da safrangeTs Soris gadaanawila, 2016 wlamde ar dadgeba. magram yvela, visac misi aRniSvna surs, Wkvianurad moiqceva, Tu amas 2015 wels gaakeTebs – sanam 100 wels miaRwevs, xelSekrulebisgan SesaZloa nakuwebiRa darCes. imis miuxedavad, ramdenad gamZle iqneba ìslamuri saxelmwifo~, romlis Seqmnac levantSi sunit jihadistebs swadiaT, arabuli samyaros am nawilSi sazRvrebis Secvla namdvilad aris mosalodneli. sxvebi aJitirebulebi arian axali qveynebis gamo: aRmosavleT ukrainaSi, CrdiloeT espaneTSi, dasavleT saharaSi, birmaSi da ase Semdeg. 2014 wels Sotlandielebis mier gamoyofis mcdeloba SesaZloa marcxiT damTavrda, magram amas wertili ar dausvams qveyanaTa gamoyofisa da maTi ricxvis zrdis tendenciisTvis, ramac 1945 wlidan moyolebuli, gaeros wevri saxelmwifoebis 51-dan dRevandel – 193-mde gazrda uzrunvelyo. marTalia Sotlandiis referendumma SesaZloa zogierT mdidar qveyanaSi separatistTa gzneba Caacxro, magram is ver SeaCerebs separatistul moros filipinebSi da uiRurebs CineTSi. momavali saxelmwifos Semqmnelebs aRmosavleT ukrainasa da ìslamur saxelmwifoSi~ es movlena ar adardebT. es xalxi magaliTs iseTi demokratebisgan ar iRebs, rogoric Sotlandiaa. Tu Sua aRmosavleTSi Secvlili sazRvrebi da axali saxelmwifoebi gaCnda (Semcirebuli siria, qveyana qurTebisTvis?), erTi SexedviT, SesaZloa cvlilebebi daemsgavsos wesrigis Secvlas afrikasa da aziaSi, roca meore msoflio omis Semdeg, koloniurma Zalebma guda-nabadi aikrifes. Tumca amJamindeli mRelvareba Sua aRmosavleTSi ubralod TviTgamorkvevis qaosuri gamoxatuleba ar aris – ZiriTadad, misi mamoZravebeli religiuri vnebaa. gadawonis Tu ara islamizmis religiur impulsebs àrabuli gazafxulis~ demokratiuli impulsebi, amis garkveva jer kidev naadrevia. omi aRmosavleT ukrainaSi SesaZloa postkoloniuri sazRvrebis gadaxedvis morig process hgavdes. es ase ar aris: imperiuli Zala – ruseTi mezobeli qveynebis teritoriebis gamoyofas uwyobs xels. marTalia ukrainis aramyari saxelmwifoebrioba gansakuTrebiT mowyvlads xdis mas Zalebis Carevis winaaRmdeg, magram misi problemebis mTavari wyaro mainc mezoblad arsebuli, dasustebuli superZalaa. Tuki ruseTi fiqrobs, rom mas ukrainuli miwebis mitaceba SerCeba, savaraudod, 2015 wels sxva postsabWoTa mezoblebic riskis winaSe aRmoCndebian. demokratiuli qveynebi, romlebsac erTianobis SenarCuneba surT, kargs izamen, Tu valdebulebebis delegirebas da decentralizacias ganaxorcieleben. britaneTi am gakveTils

istoriis qarcecxlSi qveynebis umetesoba warmavalia

jon grimondi: kontributori redaqtori, The Economist

nela iTvisebs. espaneTisa da sxva mravalerovani saxelmwifoebis msgavsad, didi britaneTi namdvil sirTuleebs awydeba – zogierTi jgufebis mier gazrdili avtonomiis moTxovnebi ise daakmayofilos, rom sxva, naklebad gulmodgineebs TviTmmarTvelobis iseTi forma ar moaxvios Tavs, rogoric maT ar surT. warmatebul, damoukidebel qveynebs, SesaZloa asimetriuli gamosavlis povnisa da gamoyofis pirobebis dakonkretebis xelovnebisTvis daufleba mouwioT. kanada, romelmac sicxadis aqti miiRo da kvebeks ufro meti Zalaufleba gadasca (magaliTad, emigraciaze), gviCvenebs, rom es SesaZlebelia.

gamoyofa Znelia

ganqorwineba TiTqmis yovelTvis mtkivneulia – faqtia, nebismieri gancalkevebis Semdeg yvela mxarem rom unda aRiaros. regioni, romelic didxans iyo Seviwrovebuli avtokratiuli centraluri xelisuflebis mier, SesaZloa aranair valdebulebas ar grZnobdes am Zalis mimarT. Tumca demokratiaSi (sadac gancalkeveba savaraudod SeiZleba inanon, Tu is saerTod miiRes) mitovebulma moqalaqeebma Tavi SesaZloa daCagrulad igrZnon, gansakuTrebiT – Tuki aRniSnuli erToba maTi Tanxmobis gareSe Sewyda. kanadaSic ki, bevri SiSobs, rom kvebekis gamoyofa savaraudod sxva provinciebs magaliTis mibaZvisken ubiZgebs – ise, rogorc mxiaruli stumris wasvla zogjer mosawyeni wveulebis daSlas iwvevs xolme. warmatebuli saxelmwifo isaa, sadac mTliani ufro metia, vidre misi nawilebis jami, xolo misi moqalaqeebis umravlesoba fiqrobs, rom maTi saxelmwifo aseTia maSinac ki, Tu umciresobas gancalkeveba surs. magram mieci gasvlis ufleba, da gaTvla ukve SesaZloa aRar muSaobdes. aiReT iugoslavia. roca sloveniam damoukidebloba gainaRda, iugoslaviis federacia gardauvalad, sisxliTa da msxverpliT daiSala. saxelmwifo imisTvis arsebobs, rom Tavis moqalaqeebs emsaxuros da ara piriqiT, da zogjer eTnikuri an nacionaluri, an sxva tipis jgufs SesaZloa gancalkevebisTvis gasagebi mizezi hqondes. msjelobis sakiTxia, Tu romel subieqts aqvs amis ufleba da ramdenad energiulad SeiZleba mas SeewinaaRmdego. cota adamiani Tu ikamaTebs imaze, rom nebismier TviTaRiarebul ers, iqneba es long ailendi, me-16 municipaluri qvedanayofi parizSi Tu resursebiT mdidari dasavleT avstralia, unda SeeZlos damoukidebel saxelmwifod Camoyalibeba. Tu CineTis nebismieri nawili ecdeba, rom Sua samefos gamoeyos, mowyalebas ver miiRebs – Cinuri nacionalizmi amas ar dauSvebs. savalalod, nacionalizmi yvelaze gamZlea im `izmebs~ Soris, romelTac me-20 saukuneSi amdeni omi gamoiwvies. axla yvelaze kargi droa mis CasaxSobad an yovel SemTxvevaSi, mis iseT sasargeblo saqmianobad gardasaqmnelad, rogoric pingpongia. istoriis qarcecxlSi qveynebis umetesoba warmavalia. mamulebi, dedulebi, samSobloebi – droTa ganmavlobaSi maTi umravlesoba uCinardeba. wamsvlelebic da damrCenebic kargs izamen, Tu amas mxedvelobaSi iqonieben da nakleb yuradRebas miaqceven erovnul droSebsa da sxva trivialur sagnebs. n

msoflio 2015

liderebi

siamaye da crurwmena `dasavleTma geebis uflebebis dasacavad Zalisxmeva unda gaaZlieros~, – mouwodebs endriu mileri

rasodes yofila ufro ukeTesi dro imisTvis, rom iyo gei. Tanasworobis ocnebebi, romlebic odesRac qaris wisqvilebTan brZolas hgavda, mTel msoflioSi axda da 2015 wels es upiratesobebi kidev ufro farTod gavrceldeba. mxolod ramdenime wlis ganmavlobaSi homofobia kanoniT daculi normidan farTod dagmobil crurwmenad gadaiqca. yovel SemTxvevaSi, axla saukeTeso droa imisTvis, rom gei iyo, Tuki londonSi, madridSi an san-franciskoSi cxovrob. msoflios bevr sxva kuTxeSi homoseqsualis uReli sazarelia da kidev ufro uaresdeba. es ori winaaRmdgobrivi tendencia urTierTdakavSirebulia da 2015 wels, dasavleli liderebi retrograds unda SeewinaaRmdegon, da aseve ukve miRweulis konsolidirebac moaxdinon. ori mTavari regioni, sadac geebis uflebebze axali Tavdasxmebi ganxorcielda, afrika da yofili sabWoTa kavSiria. ugandam miiRo kanoni, romelic `gauaresebuli~ seqsualobisTvis sicocxlis bolomde patimrobas iTvaliswinebs; sasamarTlom igi teqnikuri mizezis gamo gaauqma, magram zogierTma ugandelma politikosma piroba dado, rom mas daubrundebian. 2014 wels antigei kanoni nigeriamac miiRo; mis magaliTs SesaZloa keniamac mibaZos. yvela mesiji musevenis am qveyanaSi homoseqsualuri seqsi ukve danaSaulia, iseve, rogorc kontinentis bevr sxva nawilSi. ruseTSi, vladimir putinma moiwona kanonproeqti, romelic homoseqsualobis `promouSens~ ukanonod acxadebs – es gaxlavT stigmis gamomwvevi nabiji, romelsac sxva postsabWoTa qveynebSi baZaven. yirgizeTi albaT Semdegi iqneba. orive regionSi am damsjelma RonisZiebebma Zaladobis, gamomZalvelobis, Seviwroebis faqtebis zrda gamoiwvia. amasobaSi, indoeTSi sasamarTlom principSi homoseqsualobis rekriminalizacia ganaxorciela. muslimi qveynebis umravlesobaSi da karibis zRvis auzis zogierT nawilSic, geebis Seviwroeba kvlav sazarelia. es yvelaferi maSin, roca erTi sqesis wyvilTa qorwineba myar antidiskriminaciul kanonmdeblobasTan, farTod mkvidrdeba. kolumbiam da avstraliam 2015 wels SesaZloa erTsqesianTa qorwineba daakanonon; irlandia amaze referendums gamarTavs; mas Semdeg, rac Statebis masStabiT fragmentul progress aqvs adgili, aSS-is uzenaes sasamarTloSi raime warmatebuli dabrkoleba ufro da ufro naklebad savaraudoa. bolomde SemTxveviToba ar aris, rom roca geebi saqorwino fotoebisTvis pozireben ufro da

sadamsjelo RonisZiebebma devnis gaZliereba gamoiwvia

endriu mileri: mTavari avtori, The Economist

ufro met qveyanaSi, sxvagan bevri maTgani axla daSinda – Tavisuflebisa da sicocxlis gamoc ki. zogierT adgilas politikosebi homofobias nacionalizmTan aerTianeben, rom mavne, hibriduli populizmi Seqmnan – geebis uflebebi aRweron, rogorc dasavleTis mier Tavsmoxveuli, xolo sakuTari Tavi – rogorc moaxloebuli sagareo uzneobis winaaRmdeg arsebuli `bastioni~. yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi es ritorika Zvel, `civi omis~ droindel mtrobas iTvisebs; afrikaSi is antikolonialur mantrebs iyenebs. propagandam naomari aRmosavleT ukraina gaafrTxila, rom evrokavSirTan urTierToba homoseqsualobaze masobrivad Zaladobis gziT moqcevas niSnavda – es Woria, romelic sasacilo iqneboda, misi farTo masebs rom ar sjerodeT. ugandis sazarel kanonze xelmoweris dros, prezidentma ioveri musevenim dasavleli lobistebis `socialuri imperializmi~ gaakritika. ra Tqma unda, iq homofobiis adgilobrivi dinebebi rom ar arsebobdes, am ritorikis arseboba gamoricxuli iqneboda. Tumca cinikosma liderebma crurwmenebis gasaRviveblad dasavluri reformebi gamoiyenes.

ixelmZRvaneleT magnickis modeliT geebis uflebebi samarTlianobis fundamentur sakiTxad miiCneva, ramdenadac dasavleli mTavrobebi ufro naklebad tolerantulebi xdebian aratolerantobis mimarT – sul mcire, ritorikis doneze. baraq obamas administracia mkacrad gmobda iseT represiul kanonebs, rogoric ugandis kanoni iyo. da mainc, am qveynebis ufro ganaTlebuli poziciisken gadarwmuneba ramdenime problemas ejaxeba. erT-erTia sayvedurebis gaZliereba imaze, rom msoflios gahomoseqsualebis SeTqmulebaze ufro meti samxili arsebobs da imazec, rom demagogebi mas mamacurad ewinaaRmdegebian. es agitatorebisTvis ormxrivad sasargeblo taqtikaa: Cumad darCena maT `WuWys~ ucvlelad tovebs, maSin roca kritika maT msxverplad aqcevs. aman ar unda SeaCeros dasavleTi, safrTxis winaSe myofi umciresobebis dacvis mcdelobebisgan. am qveynebSi geebis uflebebis damcvelebs urCevniaT, rom dasavleTma xma aimaRlos. ufro rTuli SemTxveva imis gadawyvetaa, protestis garda Tu risi gakeTeba SeiZleba. ekonomikuri sanqciebi im riskis Semcvelia, rom Zalisxmeva SesaZloa mizans ascdes da sinamdvileSi udanaSaulo adamianTa gaRatakeba da nacionalistebis gaZliereba gamoiwvios. da mainc, blagvi ekonomikuri berketebis gamoyenebaze uaris Tqma aucileblad imas ar niSnavs, rom saerTod araferi gakeTdes. dasavleTma unda miiRos modeli, romelic adamianis uflebebis ukve sxva tipis darRvevebis winaaRmdeg gamoiyeneba: es gaxlavT individualur samarTaldamrRvevebze fokusireba – iseve, rogorc `magnickis aqtis~ dros moxda, romelic danaSaulis Tanamonawile rus saxelmwifo pirebs vizis armicemisa da qonebis gayinvis kuTxiT, mizanSi iRebs. ugandaSi geebis yvelaze gaavebul moZuleebTan aSS-m es midgoma scada, magram 2015 wels igi sxvaganac unda iqnes gamoyenebuli, Tanac – evrokavSiris mier. es aCvenebda, rom dasavleTi mis teritoriaze dacul uflebebs – uklebliv yvelas – ganixilavs, rogorc WeSmaritad universalurs. n

msoflio 2015

mega karta 2015 wlis ivnisSi Tavisuflebis did qartias 800 wlis iubile usruldeba, romelmac inglisis dedoflis Zalaufleba SezRuda da bevrs konstitucia STaagona. ludvig sigilma es modeli kibersivrces moargo aq warmodgenili Tavi Cven da Cvens memkvidreebs samudamod gvidasturebs, rom interneti unda iyos Tavisufali da Ria, misi uflebebi SeuzRudavi, xolo misi Tavisufleba – Seulaxavi. Cveni virtualuri `samefos~ yvela Tavisufal xalxs, Cvens Tavs da Cvens memkvidreebs samudamod gadaveciT is Tavisufleba, romlebic qvemoT aris Camoyalibebuli. Cvens `samefoSi~ misi sayovelTao Tanxmobis gareSe, monacemebsa da qselebze, bitqoinzec ki, an dogeqoinze, ver dawesdeba veranairi `xarki~/No scutage an `daxmareba~. `daxmarebis~ an `xarkis~ Sesafaseblad, cifruli samyarosgan zogadi Tanxmobis mosapoveblad Cven daSifruli eleqtronuli fostis saSualebiT, kupertinos kardinalis, armonkis arqiepiskoposis, herzlias uxucesebis, teqqalaqisa da 71-e kvartlis – iseve, rogorc teqbaronebis, magram ara kim dotqomis individualuri gamoZaxeba dagvWirdeba. dRis ganmavlobaSi dagegmili saqme damswreTa rezoluciis Sesabamisad unda warimarTos – maSinac ki, Tu vinme `skaipis~ marjve kavSirebis saSualebiT gamocxadda an Seusabamo maisuri acvia. saCivari SesaZloa mxolod maT Sesabamis `kibersasamarTlos~ waredginos. trivialuri danaSaulisTvis, rogoricaa selfis dapostva an gadatvitva, Tavisufali adamiani danaSaulis xarisxis proporciulad unda dajarimdes, xolo seriozuli danaSaulisTvis, rogorebicaa trolingi da daspoilereba – Sesabamisad, magram ara imdenad mZimed, rom internetTan kavSiris ufleba CamoerTvas. imavenairad, Tu sasamarTlo mowyale TvaliT gadmoxedavs, gabankrotebul startaps SeiZleba misi movlis instrumentebi da ping-pongis magida mieces. arcerT qalaqs an personas ar eqneba qselis ganviTarebis valdebuleba, maT garda, visac amis ZvelTaZveli valdebuleba aqvs. da qselebi samudamod neitraluri unda iyos. Tu Tavisufali adamiani uanderZod gardaicvleba, misi Facebook-profili, World of Warcraft-is gmirebi da gegmebis Semadgeneli nawilebi, aseve valuta, GitHub-is kodi da sxva personaluri monacemebi, firmis mrCevelTa sabWos meTvalyureobiT, mis uaxloes naTesavebsa da megobrebze unda ganawildes. arc `kibermefem~ da arc `xuTi Tvalidan~ romeliRacam (romelic dasavleTis sadazvervo aliansia) nebismieri Tavisufali adamianis monacemebi an mowyobilobebi patronis Tanxmobis gareSe ar unda aiRos. `samefos~ vercerTi oficialuro piri Tavisi `koSkisTvis~ virtualur qonebas mflobelis Tanxmobis gareSe `xels ver axlebs~. yvela CamxSobi mowyobiloba zRvisqveSa kabelebidan, satelituri komunikaciebidan, monacemTa centrebiludvig sigili: teqnologiis redaqtori, The Economist

liderebi

dan da routingis aRWurvilobidan unda moSordes, garda im SemTxvevisa, roca am danadgaris gamoyeneba sasamarTlos mieraa nebadarTuli. Prism, Echelon, XKeyscore da sxva aseTi proeqtebi unda daixuros. netfliqsis uproblemo strimingisa da TamaSebze daubrkolebeli wvdomisTvis, mTel `samefoSi~ internetkavSiris siCqaris standartuli sazomebia saWiro. sakabelo da usadeno kavSirisTvis standarti unda arsebobdes. gansakuTrebiT, USB-koneqtorebi bolos da bolos, ormxrivi unda iyos. Tavisufali adamiani aravin unda daakavos an daapatimros. an failis flobis uflebaCamorTmeuli, an kanongareSed gamocxadebuli, an internetidan gamoTiSuli, an domeinis saxelCamorTmeuli – ar moxdeba mis winaaRmdeg hakeroba an masTan tabloidis Jurnalistis gagzavna, garda misi kolegebis kanonieri gadawyvetilebisa. yvela mewarmes SeuZlia Sevides an datovos `samefo~ dauzianeblad, xolo misi leptopi, smartfoni an sxva mowyobilobebi xelSeuxebeli unda darCes. maT SeuZliaT `samefoSi~ darCnen an gadaadgildnen vaWrobis mizniT da ukanono gamoZalvisgan daculebi iyvnen. yvela programis developerisTvis kanonierad miiCneva `samefos~ datoveba, aseve dabruneba dauzianeblad da uSiSrad – maSinac ki, Tu isini swraf ganviTarebasa da sqrumze bevrs laparakoben. wvdomis gadasaxadi, romelsac usamarTlod da miwis flobis uflebis ugulebelyofiT gviwesebdnen, da jarimebi, romlebic usamarTlod gadavixadeT, kerZod, saavtoro uflebebis darRvevisTvis da programis patentisTvis, mTlianad unda Camoiweros, an sakiTxi qvemoT dasaxelebuli 25 `baronis~ umravlesobis gadawyvetilebiT unda gadaiWras. qselis romeliRac rainds, miwa, Tavisufleba, domeinis dasaxeleba, `tviteris~ samarTavebi anda saidumlo dokumentebi maTi Tanasworebis kanonieri gadawyvetilebis gareSe Tu ar mivakuTvneT, isini erTianad unda daubrundes maT.

Tavisuflebis mcvelebi `teqbaronebma~ 25 maTgani unda SearCion, raTa maT am qartiiT garantirebuli mSvidoba da Tavisufleba SeinarCunon da maTi srulfasovani dacva uzrunvelyon. Tu Cveni mTavari samarTali, mTavari yahoo, oficialuri pirebi, an Cveni romeliRac mosamsaxure piri raime saxiT Seuracxyofs romeliRac mamakacs an qals, anda 13 wlis vunderkinds, an daarRvevs mSvidobis an am usafrTxoebis erT-erT muxls, an danaSauli miva 25 `baronidan~ 4-is yuramde, maT amis gasajaroeblad tviti unda gagzavnon da dauyovnebeli gamosworeba moiTxovon. Tu kompensacia 40 dRis ganmavlobaSi ar moxdeba, 25-ma `baronma~ SesaZloa dagvayadaRos da mTeli samefos ekosistemis daxmarebiT, yvela saSualebiT, Cvenze ieriSi moitanos – servisis Sewyvetisa da spearSifingis CaTvliT. Cvenc da teqbaronebmac davificeT, rom es yvelaferi erTgulad da motyuebis gareSe unda iyos daculi. Cveni xeliT gaica teritoriaze, romelsac ewodeba Redwood Shores, san-franciskosa da san xoses Soris, 15 ivniss, 2015 wels.

msoflio 2015

liderebi

warmosaxviTi politika `mTavroba,romelic britaneTs 2015 wels unda hyavdes, magram, samwuxarod, ar eyoleba~, – Civis joel badi

014 wels, roca Tanamemamuleebis SesaZlo damoukideblobiT moxibvlas cdilobdnen, Sotlandieli nacionalistebi xSirad dapirebas iZleodnen, rom damoukidebel Sotlandias yovelTvis eyoleboda is mTavroba, romelsac xmas miscemda. pirdapiri gagebiT, es simarTle iyo: aRar iarsebebda ingliseli amomrCevlis mier Tavsmoxveuli torebis mmarTveloba. Tumca nacionalisturi kampaniis didi nawilis msgavsad, es fuWi dapireba iyo. arasodes momxdara, rom meore msoflio omis Semdeg, romeliRac politikur partias britaneTSi xmebis 50%-ze meti moegos, xalxs ki arasodes hyavs zustad is mTavroba, romelic mas surs; xalxs uwevs, rom sam an oTx variants Soris yvelaze naklebad mimzidveli amoirCios. magram ra moxdeba, Tu SesaZlebeli iqneba, rom is gvyavdes, romelic gvsurs? optimisturi suliskveTebiT, Jurnals `msoflio 2015 wels~ surs maisSi britaneTis sayovelTao arCevnebTan dakavSirebiT mxari mTavrobas dauWiros. Tumca, es xelmisawvdomi arCevani ar aris. yvela did partias Tavisi Rirsebebi da seriozuli naklic aqvs. konservatorebi Caciklulebi arian sagareo fantomebze, rogorebicaa emigrantebi da evrokavSiris biurokratebi; leiboristebs, rogorc Cans, mxolod xandaxan agondebaT, rom qveyanas didi moculobiT vali aqvs gadasaxdeli; liberal-demokratebma Zalauflebis garda jer kidev ar ician ra surT; gaerTianebuli samefos damoukideblobis partiam zustad icis ra surs, magram swored rom mcdari survilebi aqvs. ar aris rTuli, amaze cota ukeT iyos saqme. srulyofili mTavroba gaatarebda iseT ekonomikur politikas, romlis msgavssac konservatiul-liberaluri demokratiuli koalicia axorcielebda 2010 wels, Zalaufleba roca aiRo, magram igi xrikebs leiboristebisgan `isesxebda~. igi gaagrZelebda axlandel xarjvaze deficitis Semcirebas da 2020 wlisTvis mas mTlianad aRmofxvrida. Tumca, igi am gegmas Sors moisroda, Tu ekonomika Zalian gauaresdeboda – zustad iseve, rogorc konservatiuli partiis xazinis kanclerma jorj osbornma, wynarad miatova Tavisi deficitis Semcirebis `gegma A~, roca evros zona cecxlSi gaexvia. leiboristuli mTavrobis msgavsad, Cvenic moiTmenda skolebze, gzebsa da msgavs sferoebze kapitalis gazrdil xarjvas, raTa grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi ekonomika gaeumjobesebina. es mTavroba koaliciis mier wamowyebul saukeTeso reformebs daaCqarebda. upirve-

ufro liberaluri saimigracio politika, vidre romeliRac arsebul partias surs

Cvens ocnebebSia joel badi: britaneTis redaqtori The Economist

lesad, es skolebisTvis gazrdil damoukideblobas gulisxmobs. bevri ukve gaTavisuflda adgilobrivi xelisuflebis kontrolisgan; darCenilebic unda gaTavisufldnen. igive suliskveTebiT, ganaTlebis erovnul departaments unda aekrZalos amgvari xSiri Careva kurikulumebsa da gamocdebSi. koaliciis mier naqebi meore reforma, romelic saxelmwifo daxmarebebis erT `universalur kreditSi~ moqcevas iTvaliswinebs, kargi ideaa, romelsac ministri ien dankan smiti arasaTanadod moekida. Cveni winadadebaa misi gaTavisufleba da am reformis mxriv Semdgomi progresis miRweva. Cveni idealuri mTavroba aseve gardaqmnida policias, magram ara ise, rogorc es koaliciam scada. Cven uars vityodiT sazRvargareT arCeul policiaze, romelsac xmas aravin aZlevs da policiur Zalebs SevaerTebdiT – ise, rom 43-isgan miviRebdiT daaxloebiT, aTs.

wiTeli niSani mwvane qamrebs 2015 wlis bolos es mTavroba londonis axlos, sasurvelia hiTrous dasavleTiT, kidev erTi aeroportis asafreni bilikis aSenebis Sesaxeb mtkice gegmas SeimuSavebda. igi fuls axal gzebsa da rkinigzaze daxarjavda, londonidan lidssa da manCesteramde swrafi samgzavro matareblis rkinigzis proeqts HS2-s mogvaSorebda, da amis nacvlad Tanxebs didi qalaqebis gareubnebSi, sadac kidev ufro uaresi sacobebia, sarkinigzo infrastruqturis ganviTarebaze daxarjavda. kidev ufro gabeduladac ki, igi daamarcxebda `ara Cems ezoSi~ damokidebulebis mqoneT da londonis garSemo, aseve sxva did qalaqebSi uzarmazar mwvane sartylebs (urbanuli zrdis kontrolis politika) gaauqmebda. koxta adgilebi parkebad unda gadaiqces; xreSis ormoebi da cxenebis saZovrebi SeiZleba gareubnebad moewyos. es daexmareboda axlandeli, gadareuli pikidan qonebis fasebis dawevas. es mTavroba gaatarebda ufro liberalur saimigracio politikas, vidre romeliRac arsebul partias surs: igi kompaniebs samuSao Zalis importirebas gaumartivebda da nebismier normalur universitetSi Caricxvis Sesaxeb werils grZelvadian samuSao vizas `miartyamda~. igi referendums Caatarebda evrokavSiris wevrobaze, magram kategoriulad imsjelebda darCenis sasargeblod. igi moaxdenda Zalauflebis decentralizacias – gansakuTrebiT iseT qalaqebSi, rogorebicaa londoni da manCesteri. gaacnobierebda ra mTavrobis mier usazRvro survils Carevis Sesaxeb, igi darCenil sajaro mosamsaxureTa ricxvs gaanaxevrebda. Cveni mTavroba Tavs mouyrida yvela niWiers. Cven SevinarCunebdiT socialurad liberal reformist konservatorebs, rogorebic gaxlavan batoni osborni da maikl govi, da maT davumatebdiT mtkice leiboristebsa da liberal-demokratebs: ed bolss, tristam hants da devic louss. Cven seriozul saqmeebTan SesaWideblad moviwvevdiT niWier, magram uaryofil politikosebs: margo jeimss, devid viletss da laiam birns. Cven aseve wesier samuSaos gamovnaxavdiT axlandeli premier-ministris – devid kameronisTvis, magram frTxilad. batoni kameroni, romelic sxva mxriv kargi politikosia, evropaSi britaneTis interesebisTvis susti `advokati~ iyo. meti zianis moyenebis Tavidan asarideblad, mas pasports CamovarTmevdiT. n

uSguli CNN-ma instagramze fotos Soris daasaxela

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kaxeTi, britanuli telegrafis, 10 yvelaze araordinalur adgils Soris moxvda

adgili, romelsac 2015 wels unda ewvioT. NEW YORK TIMES mkiTxvels saqarTveloSi mogzaurobas urCevs

saqarTvelos turizmis erovnuli administracia

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kalendari

2015

msoflio masStabiT Cven mier SerCeuli movlenebis nakrebi ianvari litva uerTdeba evrozonas; germania `didi Svideulis~ xelmZRvaneli xdeba; latvia evrokavSiris prezidentobis pirvel eqvsTvian vadas iwyebs. britanelebi arasodes, arasodes, arasodes wyveten fiqrs uinston CerCilze, misi gardacvalebidan 50 wlisTavze. msoflio erovnuli Caxutebis dRes zeimobs. Tebervali Cinuri kalendriT, Txis weli iwyeba. Txis weliwadSi dabadebulni arian mSvidni, zomieri xasiaTis, kreatiulebi da pesimistebi. aSS-is saukeTeso fexburTis gundebi superTasis XLIX-is mosagebad erTmaneTs finiqsSi, arizonaSi daupirispirdebian. nigeria – afrikis yvelaze mWidrod dasaxlebuli qveyana prezidents da parlaments irCevs. airCie yvelaze saocari bileTebi: sambadromisTvis, sadac rios karnavalze sambas skolebi erTmaneTs ejibrebian; filmis premierisTvis – `nacrisferis 50 Crdili~; an kriketis msoflio CempionatisTvis, romelic avstraliasa da axal zelandiaSi iwyeba. marti 20 marts mzis sruli dabneleba 2026 wlamde bolo aseTi movlenaa, romelic evropidan gamoCndeba. inglisis moklul mefe riCard I I I -is neSts, romelic 2012 wels sabWos avtosadgomze ipoves da romlis identificireba DNA-is testis saSualebiT ganaxorcieles, xelaxla dakrZalaven lesteris sakaTedro taZarSi. evrokavSiri cdilobs msoflio poeziis dRes ganwyoba aamaRlos. aprili bednieri rkinis iubile: oto fon bismarki – germaniis imperiis pirveli kancleri da pirveli Tanamedrove saxelmwifos Semqmneli 200 wlis win, prusiaSi daibada. amerikelebi ixseneben samoqalaqo omis dasasruls, romelic 150 wlis win, robert e.lis kapitulaciiT dasrulda, xolo 6 dRis Semdeg abraham linkolnis mkvleloba moxda. msoflio cirkis dRes mTeli planeta did karavad iqceva. laTinuri amerikis kontinentis meSvide samiti, romelic regionis liderebs Tavs uyris, panamaSi imarTeba. maisi daria Tu avdaria, Celsis yvavilebis Sou ifurCqneba. milanSi `eqspo 2015~ ixsneba. Tanamedrove xelovnebis moyvarulebi TavianT bienaleze veneciisken miiCqarian. britanelebi sayovelTao arCevnebSi xmas aZleven.

msoflio 2015 `nasas~ kosmosuri xomaldi New Horizons, romelmac 2006 wels kosmosisken starti aiRo da mas Semdeg 3 miliard milze meti gaiara, pirveli kosmosuri aparatia, romelic plutons moinaxulebs. kidev erTi ùSiSari mogzauri~ – `dedofali meri 2~, liverpulidan halifaqsisa da bostonisken gacuravs, raTa gaacocxlos 175 wlis win britaneTSi pirveli transatlantikuri gadacurva `gunard laineriT~. agvisto tragikuli movlenebidan aTi wlis Semdeg, romelic qariSxalma `katrinam~ axal orleanss Tavs daatexa, qalaqi krizisidan gamosvlas afasebs. mezRvaurebi da musikis moyvarulebi miemarTebian bretanSi, pempolis portSi, festival du Chant de Marin-ze dasaswrebad, raTa SeuerTdnen `zRvis simReris~ dResaswauls, romelic yovel or weliwadSi erTxel imarTeba. msoflio Cempionati mZleosnobaSi, romelic yovel or weliwadSi erTxel imarTeba, 2008 wlis olimpiadis Semdeg udidesi sportuli RonisZiebaa pekinis `Citis budis~ saxeliT cnobil erovnul stadionze. argentinis „mar del plataSi“, sportsmenebi, romlebmac sxeulis sxvadasxva organoebi warmatebiT gadainerges, erTmaneTs organoTa transplantaciis me-20 TamaSebSi Seejibrebian. seqtemberi yvelaze grZeli mefoba: dedofalma elisabed I I -m dedofal viqtorias gadaaswro (viqtoriam taxtze 63 weli, Svidi Tve da sami dRe imefa), rogorc yvelaze dRegrZelma britanelma monarqma. ragbis msoflio Cempionati, romelic yovel oTx weliwadSi erTxel imarTeba, inglissa da uelsSi iwyeba. msoflio liderebi niu-iorkSi ikribebian, raTa ukidures siRaribesTan brZolis progresi gazomon, vinaidan axlovdeba 2000 wels dawyebuli proeqtis àTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebis~ (MDGs) misaRwevad dasaxuli 2015 wlis saboloo vada. isini aTaswleulis Semdgom miznebs dasaxaven. oqtomberi kanada sayovelTao arCevnebs marTavs. ekranebze gamodis jeims bondis seriebis bolo, 24-e filmi, romelSic deniel qreigi asrulebs mTavar rols, da filmi-miuzikli `boroti~. momavali modis: 21 oqtomberi aris dRe, rodesac marti samogzaurod gaeSura filmSi ùkan momavalSi, nawili 2~. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi da msoflio banki yovelwliur Sexvedraze dasaswrebad samxreT limaSi, peruSi miemgzavrebian.

noemberi tyupi movlenebi: TurqeTi `didi rvianis~ meaTe samits maspinZlobs da 21-wevriani azia-wynari okeanis ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis forumis liderebi manilaSi – filipinebze ikribebian. ivnisi globaluri daTbobis winaaRmdeg brZola msoflios mdidari qveynebis liderebi bavariis parizSi inacvlebs, sadac mTavrobebi klimaturi alpebSi, Slos elmauSi ikribebian, sadac ancvlilebebisadmi miZRvnil bolo saerTaSoriso gela merkeli maspinZlobs yovelwliur `didi konferenciaze ikribebian. rvianis~ samits, an `didi Svidianis~ samits – im aviaciis saxeobebis mesveurebi garigebebs axorSemTxvevaSi, Tuki ruseTis prezidents vladicieleben udabnoSi, dubais aviaSouze, romelic mir putins ar miiwveven. msoflios yvelaze swrafad mzardi aviasanaxpirveli evropuli TamaSebi, romelSic evropis aobaa. 49 olimpiuri qveyana erTmaneTs 20 sportul saxeobaSi Seejibreba, azerbaijanis dedaqalaq dekemberi baqoSi ixsneba; `fifas~ meSvide msoflio safex- msoflio mSvidobis qaravani dedofal Sebas gzas burTo Cempionati qalebSi kanadaSi starts imeorebs iordaniidan ierusalimamde. iRebs. espaneTs am droisaTvis sayovelTao arCevnebi 800 wlis win inglisis mefe jonma xeli moawera Catarebuli eqneba. `Tavisuflebis did qartias~, ranimeid midouSi. amerikelebi monobis gadagdebis 150 wlisTavs TurqeTi sayovelTao arCevnebs marTavs. aRniSnaven: amoqmedda me-13 Casworeba, ris safuZvelzec jorjia amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis ivlisi 27-e Stati gaxda, da romelmac misi ratificiluqsemburgi evrokavSiris Tavmjdomare reba ganaxorciela. qveyana xdeba. 2015 wlis kalendris ilustraciis avtoria The Economist-is saredaqcio karikaturisti kevin (KAL) keloeri, romelmac gamoiyena karikaturebi www.foresightnews.co.uk-dan

msoflio 2015

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msoflio 2015 aseve seqciaSi: briuseli langarze 28 safrangeTis politikuri maraToni 29 italia gamofenaze 30 germaniis pacifizmis gadafaseba 30

evropa

germaniis qonebrivi buStukebi 31 espaneTi xmas aZlevs 32 mxood SesaZlebelia… 32 mateo renzi: gegma italiisTvis 34

Tanaarseboba `daTvTan~ jon piti

dasavleTevropelebi saerTo safrTxis sapasuxod `saerTo zurgs~ gaimagreben

axla ormxrivma undoblobam Rrmad gaidga fesvebi.

putinis niRbosani brigada

centraluri evropuli saxelmwifosa da baltiispireTis qveynebis SemoerTebas 2004 wels; putinis omi saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg nawilobriv gamiznuli iyo aeZulebina qarTvelebi am kursisgan gadaexviaT, Tumca naklebad cxadi iyo is, rom putini mtruli iqneboda evrokavSiris aRmosavleTiT gafarToebis mimarTac. amis katalizatori ukraina aRmoCnda. batoni putini, romelmac odesRac sabWoTa kavSiris daSlas `geopolitikuri katastrofa~ uwoda, didi xania fexs iTrevda da ar surda eRiarebina ukrainis – kievis ruseTis Sua saukuneebis akvnis, rogorc damoukidebeli qveynis idea. 2004 wlis `narinjisferi revolucia~ misi pirveli saprezidento vadis udidesi marcxi iyo da igi nasiamovnebi darCa, roca 2010 wels ukrainis prezidenti prorusi viqtor ianukoviCi gaxda. aseTi iyo foni, romelzec evrokavSirma Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekruleba moamzada baton ianukoviCTan. batoni putini mtkiced ewinaaRmdegeba am xelSekrulebas, romelic ukrainas evrokavSiris saboloo wevrobisken sTavazobs gzas. agreTve, mas ukiduresad sWirdeba ukraina Tavisi 45-milioniani mosaxleobiT, raTa mis mier dagegmil evraziul kavSirSi gaawevrianos. ise rom, 2013 wlis bolos man uzarmazari zemoqmedeba moiSvelia, raTa ianukoviCisTvis evrokavSirTan xelSekrulebis gaformebaze uari

inansuri krizisis Semdeg, evropis liderebi TavianTi qveynebis SigniT ufro arian mimarTuli, vidre sazRvargareT, da ekonomikis gaZlierebisa da erTiani valutis SesanarCuneblad ibrZvian. Tumca, sagareo sakiTxebi axla evrokavSiris dRis wesrigSi yvelaze prioritetuli xdeba. amis mizezi ruseTis prezidenti vladimir putini da mis mier ukrainis teritoriis mitacebaa. 2015 weli sami movleniT aRiniSneba: upirvelesad, evropelTa umravlesoba axali rusuli safrTxis gamoCenis gamo, mravalwliani TviTkmayofilebiT gamowveuli Semcirebis Semdeg, Tavdacvis xarjebs gazrdis. meore – gaCndeba axali biZgi, rom evrokavSirma energoresursebis diversificireba ganaxorcielos da zogadad, ruseTze ekonomikuri damokidebuleba Seamciros. mesame – ruseTis winaaRmdeg sanqciebi SenarCundeba da albaT, gamkacrdeba, miuxedavad imisa, rom amiT ara mxolod ruseTi, aramed evropuli qveynebis moryeuli ekonomikac zaraldeba. uaxlesi istoriis gaTvaliswinebiT, samive es faqti moulodnelia. batoni putini didi xania evropaSi `gaTiSe da ibatones~ principiT TamaSobs. poloneTTan da baltiispireTTan mtruli politikis fonze, igi megobrobis `koziriT~ `TamaSobda~ italiasa da germaniasTan. ungreTi, kviprosi da bulgareTi Cveulebriv, prorusulebi iyvnen. bevri evropuli biznesmeni vaWrobda da investirebas axorcielebda ruseTSi, xolo safrangeTma misTvis samxedro-satransporto xomaldi `mistrali~aago. evrokavSiris liderebi, rogorebic arian italieli silvio berluskoni da germaneli gerhard Sroderi, vladimir putinTan piradi, axlo megobrobiT iyvnen bednierebi. Tumca, is dro warsuls Cabarda. baton putins ukrainaSi agresia ara mxolod sanqciebad, aramed evropaSi megobrebis dakargvad daujda. safrangeTma gadado `mistralis~ gemebis gadacema. Tumca, ganwyobis cvlilebis saukeTeso magaliTi mainc germaniaa – ruseTis udidesi savaWro partniori da investiciebis wyaro. germaniis elita didi xani `gagebiT ekideboda~ ruseTs, da oRondac ruseTTan uerTierToba gaegrZelebina, ar SeumCnevia rogor Txrida batoni putini sangars avtokrati da kleptokrati saxelmwifosTvis. 2014 wlis movlenebis fonze, es midgoma centristul memarcxeneebs Sorisac ki (ix. statia `Zala ybedobis winaaRmdeg~, amave ganyofilebaSi) gaqra. germaniis kancleri angela merkeli dasavleTSi putinis erT-erT umwvaves kritikosad iqca.

vladimir putinis rTuli biznespartnioridan dRevandel mtrulad ganwyobil mezoblamde transformacia neli, magram Tanmimdevruli procesi iyo. Tumca, mas Semdeg, rac igi kremlSi 2012 wlis martSi ufro moqnili dimitri medvedevis Semcvlelad dabrunda, misi antidasavluri ritorika gacilebiT ufro gamwvavda. garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi ukve naTlad gamoCnda, rom putini NATO-s safrTxed miiCnevda. igi mtkivneulad aRiqvams mis gafarToebas da ramdenime

jon piti: evropis redaqtori

The Economist

evropa

briuseli langarze tom naTali, briuseli

gamocdebi axali gundisTvis

msoflio 2015

ukrainis aRmosavleTSi omi, rogorc Cans, kidev erT `gayinul konfliqtad~ gadaiqceva, evropas axali konfrontaciisTvis Zalebis mokreba gauWirdeba. ramdenime gamonaklisis garda, mis wevrebs vladimir putinTan SedarebiT naklebad adardebT es problema. amasobaSi, problemebi samxreTiT – CrdiloeT afrikasa da Sua aRmosavleTSi, niSnavs, rom ar Semcirdeba migrantTa nakadi, romlebic evropaSi mosaxvedrad xmelTaSua zRvis gadakveTas cdiloben, rasac xSirad tragikuli Sedegebi axlavs. ekonomikur frontze, 2010-2012 wlebSi evros krizisis mier gamowveuli egzistencialuri SiSebi dacxra, magram 2015 wels evrozonaSi SesaZloa mxolod 1 %-iani zrda dafiqsirdes. baton iunkers ekonomikaze samwliani, 300 miliardi evros moculobis (380 miliardi aSS dolari) sainvesticio `niaRvris miSveba~ surs, romelic transports, internetinfrastruqturas da energetikas dafaravs, magram zustad aravin icis, saidan moitans igi am fuls.

ovel ramdenime weliwadSi, kuluaruli Sexla-Semoxlis dros miRweul garigebebSi, evrokavSiris mTavrobis liderebi asaxaven gegmas, Tu vin iqneba marTvis saTaveSi. 2014 erT-erTi aseTi weli iyo, da mis miwuruls asparezze axali gundi koleqtiurad ikidebda fexs. 2015 wels `briuselis mayureblebi~ yuradRebiT daakvirdebian evrokomisiis (evrokavSiris aRmasrulebeli struqtura) axal prezidents Jan-klod iunkers, romelmac scada komisiis struqturis ganaxlebis gziT win aRdgomoda maT, romlebic mis reformatorul monacemebSi daeWvdnen. evrosabWos (sadac qveynis meTaurebi ikribebian) axali xelmZRvaneli donald tuski da sagareo politikis sakiTxebSi umaRlesi komisari federika mogerini aseve yuradRebis centrSi iqnebian. damdeg wels briuseli politikis sakiTxebSi mTeli rigi winaaRmdegobrivi debatebis mowme gaxdeba, konkretulad ki transatlantikuri vaWrobisa da sainvesticio partniorobis Temaze – es gaxlavT ambiciuri xelSekruleba evrokavSirsa da amerikas Soris Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb, romelsac memarcxeneebi undoblobas ucxadeben orive mxares. Tumca, aq sami mTavari sakiTxi iqneba: pirveli – safrTxe revanSistuli ruseTisgan; meore – susti evropuli ekonomika; mesame – mzardi SeSfoTeba britaneTis mier evrokavSiris datovebis Sesaxeb. ukrainaSi ruseTis qmedebaze evrokavSiris pasuxi mtkice ar aris. Tuki mogerini da tuski

2015 mokled ruseTi evropaSi udides sapyrobiles xsnis – 4000 patimarze gaTvlil satusaRos sanktpeterburgSi

eTqmevinebina. magram aman ukrainelebSi axali mRelvareba gamoiwvia – isini dairazmnen qveynis evropuli miswrafebebis dasacavad, ramac situacia sabolood ianukoviCis gaqcevamde da misi petro poroSenkoTi Secvlamde miiyvana. batonma putinma isargebla ianukoviCis wasvlis Semdeg gamefebuli qaosiT, raTa daepyro da ganexorcielebina yirimis aneqsia – ZiriTadad rusulenovani naxevarkunZuli, romelic ukrainas xruSCovma 1954 wels gadasca. Semdeg rusebma Seagulianes amboxeba kievis winaaRmdeg donbasis regionSi da saidumlo jarebi sazRvarze gagzavnes. batonma putinma axali doqtrina SeimuSava, romelic mas uflebas aZlevs, rusulenovani mosaxleoba msoflios nebismier adgilas daicvas. iseTi qveynebisTvis, rogorebicaa latvia da estoneTi, TavianTi didi rusulenovani umciresobebiT da sabWoTa okupaciis gamocdilebiT, es doqtrina metad SemaSfoTebelia. TumcaRa aRmosavleT ukrainaSi brZolebis intensivoba Sesustda. yvelaferma aman iseT CixSi datova batoni putini da evrokavSiri, saidanac isini 2015 wels ver gamovlen. batoni putini ar SeeSveba yirims da arc donbasSi miatovebs prorus meamboxeebs, rom-

evropis centraluri banki, SorsmWvreteli mario dragis meTaurobiT, ufro eqspansiur fiskalur pozicias lobirebs evropaSi, rac germaniisTvis niSania, rom saSinao mkacri politika Seamsubuqos. banki aseve SesaZloa dagvianebiT gadavides `raodenobriv Serbilebaze~. es xels aZlevT safrangeTsa da italias, romlebic evrokavSirTan SeTanxmebuli fiskaluri miznebis gansaxorcieleblad iRvwian, magram am qveynebis aSkarad reformistul mTavrobebs dasWirdebaT, rom araefeqtianobasTan brZolis sakiTxs seriozulad moekidon. am periodSi, germaniis sakonstitucio sasamarTlos wiTelmosasxamiani mosamarTleebi mzad iqnebian situaciaSi CasarTavad, Tu gadawyveten, rom evropis centralurma bankma mandats gadaaWarba. maisSi, Tu britaneTis sayovelTao arCevnebi xelisuflebis saTaveSi konservatorebis mTavrobas moiyvans, premier-ministr devid kamerons mouwevs dapireba Seasrulos da 2017 wels evrokavSirSi darCena-gasvlis referendumis win kidev erTxel scados molaparakebebi britaneTis evrokavSirSi wevrobis pirobebTan dakavSirebiT. igi mxars dauWers saerTo bazris gaZlierebas da `kidev ufro mWidro kavSiris~ Sesaxeb evrokavSiris xelSekrulebis simboluri miswrafebis dasrulebas. Tumca yvelaze winaaRmdegobrivi sakiTxi evrokavSiris moqalaqeebis britaneTSi gadasvlis ufleba iqneba, romlis SezRudvac torebis nawils surs. britaneTis klubis wevrebis survilia, igi kvlavac wevrad darCes. iunkeri, romlis daniSvnasac xmamaRla ewinaaRmdegeboda batoni kameroni, SerigebisTvis mzadaa, Tumca mainc nu geqnebaT mSvidobis imedi.n tom naTali Charlemagne-is mesvete, The Economist

lebic maRali xarisxis avtonomias miiReben. evrokavSirma da ukrainam savaWro xelSekrulebis axal variants moaweres xeli, magram ruseTis provocireba rom aeridebinaT Tavidan, misi ganxorcieleba 2015 wlis Semdgomi periodisTvis gadades. radgan evropelebi mzad ar arian ukrainis gamo ibrZolon, maT mxolod is gamosavali aqvT, rom baton putinTan daaxloebuli rusuli kompaniebisa da individebis winaaRmdeg sanqciebs mimarTon (da mainc, dasavleTis sanqciebi azianebs rusul ekonomikas, romlis zrdac 2014 wels SeCerda da 2015 wels mcired Tu gaizrdeba). rusebma Suri iZies importze akrZalvis dawesebiT da gazis miwodebis SezRudviT daimuqrnen. axla ormxrivma undoblobam Rrmad gaidga fesvebi. ramdenime wlis ganmavlobaSi bevri evrokavSirSi da bevric mis miRma sinanuls gamoTqvamda evrokavSiris uunarobaze koordinirebuli da erTiani sagareo politika ewarmoebina da amis mizezad, rogorc yvelaze naTel magaliTs, ruseTis gamo azrTa sxvadasxvaobas asaxelebda. paradoqsia, rom 2015 wels evrokavSiri, rogorc arasdros, ise miuaxlovdeba am miznis miRwevas da amisTvis madloba erT kacs – TviT baton putins ekuTvnis. n

msoflio 2015

safrangeTis politikuri maraToni sofi pederi, parizi

da misi dagvianebuli aCqareba ekonomikuri reformis gasatareblad

amdeg wels mTeli mondomebiT daiwyeba xangrZlivi rbola safrangeTis prezidentobisTvis 2017 wlis arCevnebSi. socialisti prezidenti fransua olandi ver SeZlebs sazogadoebriv gamokiTxvebSi rekordulad dabali reitingis amaRlebas. ise rom, yuradReba gadava im brZolaze, Tu vin unda Secvalos igi. sami figura iqneba dominanti: memarcxene frontze misi premier-ministri manuel valsi; centristul-memarjvene frontze yofili prezidenti nikola sarkozi; da marin le peni populisturi nacionalisturi frontidan. batonma olandma batoni valsi im imediT daniSna, rom ufro axalgazrda, mebrZoli politikosis popularoba prezidentis reitingsac waxmareboda. magram rac ufro didxans rCeba Tanamdebobaze valsi, miT ufro mibmuli xdeba olandze da misi reitingic ecema. es yvelaferi gaarTulebs valsisTvis im ekonomikuri reformebis gatarebas, romlebsac safrangeTs dahpirda. mTavrobis dRis wesrigSia dapirebebi daculi profesiebis liberalizaciis Sesaxeb: notariusebi, sasamarTlos boqaulebi da farmacevtika; samsaxurebrivi sabWoebis regulaciebis Semsubuqeba; SromiTi kanonmdeblobis gamartiveba kviraobiT da saRamoobiT vaWrobis saaTebis deregulacia; Warbi biurokratiis Semcireba, romelsac garkveuli kompromisebi moyveba. batoni valsi – zomieri memarcxene-centristi politikosi, saxifaTo bilikze ivlis - Seiqmnas mkacri reformatoris imiji, Tu Tavisi partiis mousvenari memarcxene frTa Ria amboxebisgan Seakavos. memarcxeneebi eWviT uyureben imas, rasac isini maRal gadasaxadebsa da xarjebze orientirebuli politikis Ralatad miiCneven. magaliTad, isini dagmoben biznesisTvis saSemosavlo gadasaxadis Semcirebas, romelic ianvarSi amoqmeddeba, da warmoadgens 40 miliardi evros (51 milioni dolari) pakets, rac kerZo seqtorSi investiciebis aRorZinebas isaxavs miznad. socialisti oponentebi, mrewvelobis yofili ministris – arnold monteburgis da lilis meris – martine obris CaTvliT, `metismetad momWirne xarjvis~ braldebasac gamoiyeneben, raTa gaakritikon 2015 wels dagegmili, sajaro seqtorSi 21 miliardi evros dazogvis gegma – maSinac ki, Tu safrangeTi susti zrdis fonze biujetis mSp-s 4.3%-mde Semcirebis amocanas Searbilebs.

nikola bonaparti im weliwads, roca elbadan napoleonis gaqcevis 200 wlisTavi aRiniSneba, erTi Zala, ramac SesaZloa memarcxeneebi gaaerTianos, mrisxane batoni sarkozia, romelic iseve sZulT memarcxeneebs, ramdenadac ukiduresad popularulia Tavisi partiis mxardamWerTa Soris. partiis liderobis ganaRdebis Semdeg, igi ecdeba axali politikuri moZraobis Camoyalibebas, romelsac axal saxels daarqmevs da ufro axalgazrda saxeebs Semoikrebs 2017 wlisTvis samzadisSi. igi ar moerideba, saprezidento kandidatobisTvis yuradRebis centrSi yofna konkurentebs gamoglijos, konkretulad ki or yofil premier-ministrs – alen Jupes da fransua filons. Tumca, im fonze, rom

evropa rogorc gamokiTxvebi mianiSnebs, sarkozi sasurveli kandidatia memarjvene-centristuli amomrCevlisTvis, misi mTavari winaaRmdegoba (da potenciuri `vaterloo~) iqnebian ara imdenad sxva konkurentebi, ramdenadac mimdinare sasamarTlo gamoZieba mis warsulTan dakavSirebiT. frang amomrCevels orjer mouwevs arCevanis gamoxatva – martSi, adgilobriv arCevnebSi da Semdeg, dekemberSi, 22-is nacvlad, 13 axalSeqmnil regionSi. TiToeuli Sedegi gamanadgurebeli iqneba memarcxeneebisTvis, sasiamovno – memarjvene-centristebisTvis, da Sansi – qalbaton le penisTvis, raTa sakuTari mzardi saarCevno Zalauflebis demonstrireba moaxdinos. igi SeZlebs mogebas CrdiloeT regionSi da savaraudod sxvaganac, safrangeTs ki Sokirebuls datovebs. igi dascinebs ganaxlebul metoqeobas baton olandsa da baton sarkozis Soris, isaubrebs ra imaze, rom myudro politikuri elitis sia arasodes icvleba. praqtikuli unaris wyalobiT, rom sakuTari Tavi rigiTi amomrCevlis xmad warmoaCinos, qalbatoni le peni Seusrulebeli dapirebebisa da umuSevrobiT gamowveuli politikuri imedgacruebis fonze, kargad ixeirebs. batoni olandi ecdeba sagareo politika Sida sisustis SesaniRbad gamoiyenos: `islamuri saxelmwifos~ sawinaaRmdego amerikul kampanias sahaero daxmareba SesTavazos da franguli jarebi malisa da centraluri afrikis respublikis teritoriebze datovos. 2015 wlis dekemberSi igi msoflios liderebs gaeros grandiozul msoflio klimatis konferenciaze umaspinZlebs im imediT, rom isini saTburis gazis gamoyofis Sesamcireblad savaldebuli RonisZiebebs SeimuSaveben. magram iqneba wuxili frangi jihadistebis gamo, romlebic siriasa da eraySi midian da aseve, im teroristuli safrTxis irgvliv, romelsac dabrunebulebi qmnian. ekonomikuri stimulisa da sabiujeto disciplinis sakiTxebze azrTa sxvadasxvaobis gamo, frangul-germanuli kavSirebi Sesustdeba. mokled, safrangeTi arasando, gulgatexili da daeWvebuli darCeba. ar SeiZleba gamoiricxos socialuri amboxis zogierTi forma, iqneba es migrantebiT masobrivad dasaxlebuli banliu Tu problemuri qalaqgare nawili. daZabulobam politikuri krizisic ki SeiZleba warmoSvas, rogoricaa baton valsis gadadgoma, Tuki adgili eqneba umarTav saxalxo amboxs an davuSvaT, parlamentis daTxovnas. is dabrunda am yvelafris ukan paradoqsia. im wels, roca batoni olandi sabolood moisvris sanagveze socialisturi ekonomikuri politikis udides nawils, romlis gamoc is airCies, misi mTavroba erT-erTi yvelaze reformatoruli imijis mqone aRmoCndeba, rogoric ki safrangeTs mravali wlis ganmavlobaSi unaxavs. Tumca, memarcxeneebis didi nawilis instinqtebis sawinaaRmdegod, reformebis gatarebis politikuri Tavis tkivili da konkretuli ekonomikuri Sedegis miRwevisTvis saWiro dro, niSnavs imas, rom politikis es 360 gradusiT Semobruneba olandis prezidentobis gadasarCenad metismetad dagvianebuli iqneba. n

29 2015 mokled somxeTi osmaleTis imperiis mier pirveli msoflio omis dros da mogvianebiT ganxorcielebul, kvlavac araerTgvarovnad Sefasebuli genocidis dawyebis 100 wlisTavs glovobs

sofi pederi: parizis biuros ufrosi, The Economist

evropa

italia gamofenaze aleqsandra fatali milani

qveynis sixaruli da problemebi gamoifineba

soflio eqspos~, romelic yovel xuT weliwadSi tardeba da saTaves londonis 1851 wlis didi gamofenidan iRebs, 2015 wels ` milani umaspinZlebs. korufciis, skandalebisa da SiSebis miuxedavad, rom qalaqi mzad ar iqneba, da maisSi, gaxsnis ceremonialisTvis 144 qveynis mier aRmarTuli pavilionebis nawilis dasruleba ver moxerxdeba, italia karg Sous aCvenebs. magram milanis eqspo arc iseTi katastrofulad cudi iqneba, rogorsac skeptikosebi prognozireben da verc italiis stagnaciaSi myofi ekonomikisTvis moitans did stimuls. umeteswilad, `Sanxai 2010~ Cineli xalxisTvis msoflios xilvis SesaZlebloba iyo. amis sapirispirod, italias imedi aqvs, rom eqspos gamoiyenebs, rogorc fokusSi moxvedris Sanss da momavalSi turizmsa da eqsports gaaumjobesebs. eqspos grZelvadiani Sedegi SezRudulia. italiis eqsportis sakredito saagentos mixedviT, msoflio moTxovnis mxriv mcire mateba da evros gaufasureba 2015 wels italiis eqsportis 5%-ian zrdas gamoiwvevs. Tumca ekonomika, romelic 2014 wels stagnaciaSi

2015 mokled turinis sudara, romelic savaraudod, iesos sxeuls efara, bolo xuTi wlis ganmavlobaSi pirvelad gamoifineba qalaqis sakaTedro taZarSi

The Economist

aRmoCnda da 1999 wels, evros brunvaSi Semosvlis Semdeg odnav Tu gaizarda, 1%-ze naklebiT gaumjobesdeba. miuxedavad yvelafrisa, mTavroba Tavs mainc gaarTmevs situacias. italias sami premier-ministri hyavda mravali wlis ganmavlobaSi. florenciis yofili memarcxene-centristi meri mateo renci, romelmac posti TebervalSi partiuli gadatrialebis Sedegad daikava, Tanamdebobas SeinarCunebs maSinac ki, Tu axali arCevnebi gaimarTeba. STambeWdavma Sedegma maisis evropul arCevnebSi misi pozicia gaamyara, magram Tuki jorjio napolitano, romelic ivnisSi 90 wlis gaxdeba, gadadgeba (igi meore vadiT mxolod imitom darCa, rom qveyanas krizisis dros daxmareboda), italias axali prezidenti eyoleba, da SesaZloa mas istoriaSi pirveli qali prezidenti moevlinos – savaraudod, yofili premier-ministri ema bonino, Tavdacvis ministri roberta pinoti an senatori ana finoCiaro. Tumca mowinaveebi xSirad warumateblobasac awydebian xolme. biznesmenebi da ucxoeli inves-

Zalaufleba Tu layboba andreas kluti, berlini

germanelebs mtkivneuli debatebi eliT Temaze, Tu ras akeTeben maTi diplomatebi da jariskacebi sazRvargareT

omavali istorikosebi 2014-sa da 2017 wels Soris periods ganixilaven, rogorc dros, roca germania dagvianebiT gamova omis Semdgomi naWuWidan, raTa dasavleTis erT-erTi lideri gaxdes, magram 2014 wels gacxadebuli cvlileba 2015 wels ar dasruldeba. germanelebma TviTon unda Secvalon sakuTari damokidebulebebi im saSualebebiT, romelsac RvarZliani debatebi hqvia. maT unda gadaxedon TavianT radikalur pacifizms da Cvevas, rom amerikas, safrangeTsa da britaneTs dauTmon lideroba saerTaSoriso krizisebSi, raTa mogvianebiT isini uaryofiTi SedegebisTvis gakicxon. sabolood, magram, albaT, 2015 wlis Semdeg, isini gaiazreben, rom msoflio wesrigis SenarCuneba maTi tvirTicaa. 2014 wlis ianvarSi, germaniis prezidentma ioakim gaukma miunxenis usafrTxoebis konferenciaze aseTi cvlilebisken mouwoda. auditoriaSi myof sagareo da Tavdacvis ministrebTan koordinaciiT, batonma gaukma ganacxada, rom germania metad aRar unda iyos `dezertiri saerTaSoriso politikaSi~. TiTqmis 70-wliani `kargad moqcevis~ Semdeg, rogorc gaukma aRniSna, germanelebi unda endon sakuTar Tavs ise, rogorc es sxvebma gaakeTes, msoflioSi progresis

torebi frTxilad Seegebnen baton rencis da misma partiam evropis parlamentis arCevnebSi xmebis 40 % miiRo. Tumca `TaflobisTve~ dasrulda. rencim Tavisi reformis dRis wesrigisTvis 1000 dRe gaiTvaliswina, rac moicavs senatis gardaqmnas, axal saarCevno kanons, SromiT kanonmdeblobaSi met moqnilobas, mcire biurokratias da samoqalaqo samarTalwarmoebis daCqarebul sistemas – 2015 wels mas ufro xelSesaxebi progresis Cveneba sWirdeba. nawilobrivi privatizebis gegma SesaZloa ufro intensiurad ganxorcieldes – italiis fostis 40%-is listingis CaTvliT, romelic safosto momsaxurebasac ganagebs da sacalo banksac. italiis uimedo mdgomareobaSi myofi sabanko seqtori ki garkveul konsolidirebas ganaxorcielebs, magram umuSevarTa 12%ze maRali raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT, italia dasaqmebis matebisTvis ibrZolebs. milanis eqspoze siamovnebis misaRebad da ganwyobis asamaRleblad gamgzavreba SesaZloa aucilebeli gaxdes. n andreas klurti: berlinis biuros ufrosi, The Economist

uzrunvelsayofad. ruseTis agresia ukrainaSi, axali safrTxe `islamuri saxelmwifos~ saxiT, ebolas gavrceleba afrikaSi – aris ki es iseTi problemebi, romlebSic germania unda gaerios? civi omis dros pasuxi calsaxad uaryofiTi iyo. arc dasavleT da arc aRmosavleT germanias WeSmaritad damoukidebeli sagareo politika ar hqonia. geopolitikur sakiTxebSi bons sakuTari Tavdacva da diplomatia vaSingtonze hqonda gadabarebuli. aRmosavleT berlini magaliTs moskovisgan iRebda. roca gayofili iyo, germania imaSic ki ar gaxldaT darwmunebuli, srulfasovnad ekuTvnoda `dasavleTs~ Tu ara. 2015 wlis 3 oqtombers germania gaerTianebis 25 wlisTavs izeimebs, romelmac daasrula gayofilad arseboba da oficialurad aRadgina germaniis suvereniteti. am saukunis meoTxedis ganmavlobaSi, germania sakuTar Tavze orientirebuli qveynidan saSualo Zalis mqone qveynad gadaiqca. germaniis diplomatiurma (da anglofonurma) elitam Seigno dasavleli kolegebis CiCini, rom sazRvargareT ufro Tavdajerebuli yofiliyo, magram germanel xalxs amis msgavsi araferi gaaCnda. yovel wingadadgmul nabijsa da frontze winaaRmdegobas iwvevda, dawyebuli 1990 wlis gadawyvetilebiT, rom germanias jarebi kosovoSi gaegzavna – marTalia, humanitaruli miznebiT, magram germaniis kategoriuli pacifizmis sawinaaRmdegod. xSirad germania ukan ixevda, iseve,

msoflio wesrigis SenarCuneba maTi tvirTicaa

andreas klurti: berlinis biuros ufrosi,

msoflio 2015

rogorc es moxda 2011 wels, roca kanclerma angela merkelma (ruseTTan da CineTTan erTad) Tavi Seikava gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis uSiSroebis sabWos kenWisyrisas, libiaSi CarevasTan dakavSirebiT. axla msoflio konfliqtebi metismetad mwvave xdeba imisTvis, rom germania pasiuri darCes. igi SeiZleba afrikis Temaze safrangeTs, da aziis sakiTxze – amerikas `danebdes~. magram ukrainis gamo dasavleTsa da vladimir putins Soris arsebuli Cixi idealuria im regionSi, sadac germaniis liderobaa saWiro. is, vinc am pozicias germanias yvelaze xmamaRla sTxovs, aRmosavleT mezoblebi arian, rogoricaa, magaliTad, poloneTi – dRes germaniis yvelaze axlo megobari, magram warsulSi mudmivad germaniasa da ruseTs Soris `gasresili~.

TanagrZnoba tirans da mainc, polonelebisa da baltiispirelebis gulis gasaxeTqad, bevri germaneli ucnaur TanagrZnobas iCens rusuli tiraniis mimarT. memarcxeneTa, anu im partiis mxardamWerebi, romlebic aRmosavleT germaneli komunistebisgan iRebs saTaves, amerikas da savaraudod, eqspansiur NATO-s ufro adanaSaulebs krizisSi, vidre baton putins. bevri memarcxene-centristi demokrati, da zogierTi politikuri memarjvenec, aseve urevs antiamerikul refleqsebs ruseTsa da germanias Soris sulieri naTesaobis Sesaxeb romantikul laybobaSi. mTeli speqtris gaswvriv, germanelTa umravlesoba daJinebiT moiTxovs, rom cxvirsaxocebisa da wylis boTlebis darigebis garda, jaris gamoyeneba arasodes moxdes. qalbaton merkels, rogorc sCvevia, sajaro pozicia ar gamouxatavs germaniis diplomatiis Sesaxeb diskusiaze, romelic batonma gaukma (Tavis metwilad ceremoniul Tanamdebobaze) wamoiwyo. amis nacvlad, igi SeZlebisdagvarad Sida da saerTaSoriso problematikis `morevebSi~ manevrirebs. putins is ufro xSirad esaubreba, vidre romeliRac sxva dasavleli

Senc, berlino! federik Studemani, berlini

uZravi qonebis bums germaniac ki nebdeba

ermaniis uZravi qonebis bazari stabilurad mosawyeni iyo. mosaxleobis zustad naxevarze naklebi daqiravebul binaSi cxovrobs. roca germanelebi raimes yiduloben, isini fuls wlebis ganmavlobaSi agroveben, raTa bes Sesatanad soliduri Tanxa hqondeT depozitze, xolo rodesac qonebas SeiZenen, mis gasxvisebaze aRar fiqroben. magram es ase ukve aRaraa. finansuri krizisis Semdeg, fuli germanul uZrav qonebaSi Caido da eqvs weliwadSi fasebi 40-50%-iT gaizarda. analitikosebi samomavlod, 2015 wlisTvis, 4%-ze met zrdas elodebian. es yvelaferi SesaZloa ver edrebodes centraluri londonis situacias, magram igi badebs SekiTxvebs. magaliTad – nebdeba Tu ara germania uZravi qonebis bazris `sneulebas~, romelmac amdeni problema Seqmna sxvagan – evropasa

evropa

msoflio 2015

lideri. merkelma aseve koordinireba gauwia evrokavSiris sanqciebs putinis winaaRmdeg, aSS-sTan erTad. 2015-Si merkeli saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi sanqciebs gaaZlierebs, magram aseve amerikis „cudi policielis“ winaaRmdeg „kargi policielis“ rolis TamaSs gaagrZelebs. amasobaSi, germaniis sagareo saqmeTa ministri frank-valter Stainmaieri qveynis quCebsa da satelevizio Toq-SouebSi imuSavebs, raTa germanuli sazogadoeba gaanaTlos da maTi mxardaWera moipovos. es rTuli iqneba. yvelaze mravlismTqmeli momenti 2014 wels iyo, Youtube-ze atvirTul im videos saxiT, romelic virusiviT gavrcelda. CanawerSi Stainmaieri berlinis moedanze ukrainis krizisis Sesaxeb saubrobda. Sekrebilebs Soris iyvnen xelovnuri pacifistebi, romlebic mas (da ara putins) `omis wamomwyebs~ uwodebdnen. Cveulebisamebr dinjma Stainmaierma braziani tirada gamarTa demonstrantebis aragulwrfelobis Sesaxeb. aseT epizodebs gacilebiT xSirad SevxvdebiT 2015 wels, magram momdevno erovnuli arCevnebis win, 2017 wels, germania sakmaod momwifebuli iqneba saimisod, rom mokavSireebs mSvidobis SenarCunebaSi daexmaros – saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi, sabrZolo iaraRiTac. n

2015 mokled germania sayovelTao minimalur saxelfaso sargos – saaTSi 8.50 evros (11 dolari) SemoiRebs

ar aris Tvalis CapaWunebis gunebaze

da aSS-Si. finansTa ministrma fasebis `saxifaTo~ cvlilebaze isaubra. `warbebi aprixes~ bundesbankSi, xolo tevtonuri, mkacri fuladi politikis orTodoqsi mcvelebi publikas fasebis 25%-iT gabervis Sesaxeb afrTxileben. amaSi mediamac Tavisi wvlili Seitana, radgan atyorcnili fasebis Sesaxeb da imis Taobaze, rom grZelvadian mdgmurebs quCaSi yrian (ramdenadac axali mepatroneebi, zogi maTgani – ucxoeli, mcire `remonts~ sababad iyenebs qiris fasis gasazrdelad), sagangaSo ambebi gaavrcela. ratom xdeba cvlileba? germanel depozitorebs evrozonis ultradabali saprocento ganakveTebisgan erTaderT TavSesafrad fulis uZrav qonebaSi investireba eqcaT. `evros fasi ar aqvs~ – tipuri refrenia sadilis dros, berlinidan miunxenamde. dabali saprocento ganakveTebi aseve niSnavs ufro iaf kredits da fasebi iseT sasurvel adgi-

bundesbankSi `warbebi aprixes~

lebSi, rogoric berlinia, isev sasiamovno Sesadarebelia sazRvargareTis uZravi qonebis `cxel bazrebTan~. gasakviri ar iqneba, rom saerTaSoriso investorebi evrozonis zogierTi periferiuli qveynidan, romlebsac finansurma krizisma mwvaved daartya, maraTonSi Caebnen. saqmeSi kulturuli cvlilebacaa gareuli, roca axali Taoba mzadaa `qonebriv kibeze acocdes~, vidre mTeli cxovreba erT adgilze darCes. zogierT wreebSi germanelebi ukve TviTkmayofilebi ganixilaven miRebul mogebas, rac anglo-saqsur sajaro Tavyrilobebze didi xnis ganmavlobaSi avismomaswaveblad aRiqmeboda. Tumca germanelebs sifrTxile qarisTvis ar gautanebiaT. qonebis SesaZenad fulis sesxeba sakmaod saxifaTo saqmed rCeba. `swrafi fulis~ maZiebeli investorebi mdgmurTa damcvel mkacr kanonebsa da qiris kontrolis regulaciebs awydebian. raRac icvleba germaniis uZravi qonebis sferoSi, magram Zalian germanuli stiliT – nela da frTxilad. n frederik Studemani: komentarebisa da analizis redaqtori, Financial Times

evropa

daumTavrebeli saqme meril stivensoni, madridi

2015 mokled irlandia safosto kodis (Eircode) danergvas iwyebs, da sabolood CamoiSorebs safosto kodebis armqone evrokavSiris erTaderTi qveynis statuss

saarCevno wels espaneTs reformebisTvis aucilebeli impulsis SenarCuneba gauWirdeba

012 wlis evrozonis krizisis Semdeg, rodesac evropas mwvaved esaWiroeboda warmatebis magaliTi, is espaneTma SemogvTavaza. misma mTavrobam krizisul ekonomikaze kontroli daamyara. man Sromis bazrebi ufro moqnili gaxada, ganaxorciela bankebis restruqturizacia, rekapitalizacia da biujetis deficiti Seamcira. konkurentunarianobis gaumjobesebasTan erTad, gaizarda eqsportic. ekonomikam kvlav zrda daiwyo. kerZo investorebis interesi aRdga da saxelmwifos mier moziduli saxsrebis fasi daeca. umuSevrobam, bolos da bolos, Semcireba daiwyo. nel-nela, espaneTma CamorCenili qveynebis, magaliTad – italiisa da safrangeTis misabaZi modelis roli moirgo. 2015 wels warmateba metwilad niuansebSi iqneba saZiebeli. ekonomika kvlav gaizrdeba – cota ufro swrafad, vidre 2014 wels. gaiafebuli evro, importirebul saqonelze Sida moTxovnis SemcirebiT, xels Seuwyobs zrdasac da savaWro balansis gawonasworebasac. mosalodneli ar aris, rom espaneTi biujetis Semcirebis gegmas Seasrulebs da mas mSp-s 4%-mde daiyvans; valis wnexi gaizrdeba da

katalonieli adgils mzeSi eZebs

mSp-s 100%-s gadaaWarbebs. Tumca, realuri safrTxe is gaxlavT, rom 2014 weli reformebisTvis piki aRmoCndeba. arada, espaneTs ufro meti sWirdeba, gansakuTrebiT – sagadasaxado sistemaSi, SromiT bazarze, gakotrebis procedurebisa da biznesregulaciebis sferoSi, raTa grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi stabilur keTildReobas miaRwios. am dros, TviTkmayofileba da saarCevno wlis politika xelisSemSleli faqtorebi iqneba. maSin, roca 5 milioni adamiani samsaxuris gareSea, rigiT moqalaqeTa Soris cotas Tu sjera, rom ekonomika umjobesdeba. yoveli meore axalgazrda dausaqmebelia, yvela msxvili firma Civis, rom marTalia kreditis aReba gamartivda, magram is mainc

yoveli meore axalgazrda umuSevaria

meril stivensoni: evropis biuros redaqtori, The Economist

msoflio 2015 Zviria. ufro meti adamiani midis emigraciaSi, vidre Semodis. politikuri sistemiT did imedgacruebas korufciuli skandalebis seriam xeli Seuwyo. adgilobrivi arCevnebi maisSi, xolo sayovelTao arCevnebi wlis bolosaa daniSnuli. ori mTavari partia, romlebic espaneTs TiTqmis frankos sikvdilidan moyolebuli marTavda – socialistebi da amJamad xelisuflebaSi myofi memarjvene-centristuli saxalxo partia, mxardaWeras kargavs. axalma populisturma moZraobam memarcxene flangze, romelsac, obamas stilSi, Podemos (`Cven SegviZlia~) ewodeba, 2014 wlis maisSi, daarsebidan sul raRac oTxi Tvis Semdeg, evroparlamentis arCevnebSi 54-dan xuTi adgili moipova da SeuZlia 2015 wels ukeTesi Sedegic aCvenos. Tumca, aqve, apaTiac fexs ikidebs. arCevnebamde mkacri reformebis politikas adgili ar eqneba; gadasaxadebis Semcireba ukve dagegmilia da yuradRebis centrSi dasaqmebis aqtiuri politika moeqceva, raTa bevri adamiani dasaqmdes an treningi gaiaros. saxalxo partia arCevnebidan, albaT, yvelaze met xmas miiRebs, magram arasakmariss imisTvis, rom damoukideblad, efeqtiani marTva SeZlos. saWiro iqneba aliansis Seqmna marcxena an marjvena flangze, magram bolo dros rukaze es `teritoria~ ar Cans.

masis moZraoba meore gadamwyveti politikuri TariRi, 2015 wels, kataloniis damoukideblobas exeba. krizisis dros, Crdilo-aRmosavleTSi, mdidar, industriul kataloniaSi, qveynidan gamoyofis Sesaxeb enTuziazmi gaizarda. gamokiTxvebi aCvenebs, rom katalonielebs gafarToebuli uflebebis mopoveba surT, Tumca plebiscitis Sedegad, SesaZloa amomrCevelTa umravlesobam madridisagan meti uflebebis delegireba da ara sruli damoukidebloba, moiTxovos. espaneTis premier-ministri mariano raxoi, romelic gacilebiT naklebad damTmobia, vidre britanelebi iyvnen Sotlandielebis mimarT, katalonielebs uars eubneba damoukideblobis referendumze, rasac maT TavianTi premieri – artur masi dapirda. mosalodnelia, rom batoni masi vadamdel regionul arCevnebs daniSnavs, romelsac de faqto plebiscitad gadaaqcevs, Tuki SeZlebs, da damoukideblobis mxardamWer moZraobas Tavis garSemo Semoikrebs. katalonielTa imedgacrueba gamudmebiT izrdeba. sul mcire, 2015 wlis pirvel naxevarSi, es sakiTxi wamyvan Temad darCeba. imedia, erovnuli mTavroba, romelic sakmarisad Wkviani iyo saimisod, rom ekonomikisTvis swori mimarTuleba da stimuli mieniWebina, jerovnad windaxedulia kataloniisTvis uflebebis gadacemis Temaze molaparakebebis dasawyebad. amas aucileblad fuli dasWirdeba, rac mas (qveynis mTavrobas) ar gaaCnia. am SemTxvevaSi, molaparakebebi SesaZloa wlebis manZilze gagrZeldes. amasobaSi, 2015 weli rTuli iqneba – metwilad politikuri, vidre ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT. n mxolod SesaZlebelia… CrdiloeT afrikidan migrantebis mozRvavebis gamo, evrokavSiri italias ufro gabeduli reaqciis gamoxatvas moTxovs. masStaburi hakeruli Seteva, vladimir putinis Sesaxeb ramdenime moulodnel detals gamoavlens. martSi, mzis sruli dabneleba germaniis energosistemis paralizebas gamoiwvevs.

warmateba am skolaSi iwyeba niutonis Tavisufali skola

www.newton.edu.ge info@newton.edu.ge +995 570705080 (90) fb.com/newtonfreeschool

evropa

msoflio 2015

gegma italiisTvis

italiis premierministri mateo renci ganmartavs, Tu rogor gegmavs Tavisi qveynis ekonomika zrdis traeqtoriaze daabrunos

gamartivebuli gadasaxadebi dovlaTis Semqmnelebs daexmareba da ufro met winapirobas Seqmnis, rom yvela dafaravs kuTvnil gadasaxads

015 wels evropa kvlavac is kontinentia, romelmac jer kidev unda daZlios ekonomikuri krizisi mimdinare konfliqtebisa da terorizmisgan SeWirvebul msoflioSi, magram pesimizmisTvis asparezis daTmobis nacvlad, saWiroa simtkice da rwmena, rom cvlileba ukeTesobisken SesaZlebelia. es TavisTavad ar xdeba. politikosebs am gzaze winamZRolobis roli akisriaT. ramdenimewliani metismetad teqnokratiuli midgomis Semdeg, ramac pozitiuri Sedegebi ar moitana, perspeqtivis cvlilebaa saWiro. Tavidanve, 2014 wlis TebervalSi, italiis axalma mTavrobam, romlis erT naxevars qalebi, meore naxevars ki mamakacebi Seadgenen, es miznad daisaxa. Cven naTeli strategia gvaqvs da viciT, rogor mivaRwioT mizans. Cven davaCqarebT struqturul reformebs, romlebic ukve mimdinareobs, dawyebuli konstituciuri da instituciuri reformebiT, rac aucilebelia imisTvis, rom italia gaxdes ufro martivi, mkvircxli da konkurentunariani, da SeZlos socialur cvlilebas droulad upasuxos. es moicavs saarCevno reformas, romelic gamokveTs realur gamarjvebuls, stabilur mTavrobas, myar umravlesobas, da mxolod erTi sakanonmdeblo palatiT warmodgenil axal konstituciur arqiteqturas, sadac Zalaufleba centralur da adgilobriv xelisuflebebs Soris iqneba ganawilebuli. Cvens saerTaSoriso partniorebTan Sexvedrebis dros, es aris prioriteti, romelic xSirad ekonomikuri zrdis xelSemwyob saSualebad moixsenieba. amavdroulad, Cven mtkiced gavagrZelebT socialur da ekonomikur reformebs. vacnobierebT struqturul sirTuleebs, romlebic italiis winsvlas abrkoleben – yvelaze metad, aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi dagrovili didi saxelmwifo vali da administraciuli sistema, romelic agresiulicaa da araefeqtianic. ramdenimewliani recesia gvqonda. 2014 wels Cveni ukusvla SeCerda, magram es sakmarisi ar aris. miznad gvaqvs dasaxuli kvlav uzrunvelvyoT zrda. amis misaRwevad, Cveni strategia ramdenime frontze iSleba. daviwyeT sajaro administrirebis axali sistemis ganviTareba, romelic cifruli teqnologiebis wyalobiT, ojaxebsa da bizness droisa da resursebis dazogvaSi daexmareba. dauyovnebeli RonisZiebebi gavatareT samoqalaqo sasamarTlo sistemis funqcionirebis dasaCqareblad da axla Cvens fokusSi sasamarTlo davebis dasasruleblad saWiro drois ganaxevrebaa, rasac ekonomikuri Sedegic eqneba. viciT, rom ucxoeli investorebisTvis es Zalian sainteresoa. 2014 wels kvlav daviwyeT meti kapitalis mozidva; 2015 wels, nawilobriv am reformebis wyalobiT, italia ufro mimzidveli gaxdeba. rac Seexeba fiskalur sistemas, 30 milioni adamiani saSemosavlo gadasaxadis deklaraciebs ukve Sevsebuls miiRebs. gamartivebuli gadasaxadebi dovlaTis Semqmnelebs daexmareba da ufro met winapirobas Seqmnis, rom yvela dafaravs dakisrebul gadasaxads. Cven gavagrZelebT gadasaxadebis Semcirebas dasaqme-

bulebisa da biznesisTvis. pirobas vdebT, rom 11 milion dasaqmebuls sagadasaxado SeRavaTi mivceT TveSi 80 evros saxiT (102 dolari). 2014 wels ukve 10%-iT davwieT da momavalSi gadasaxads ufro metad SevamcirebT biznesis sferosTvis. am RonisZiebebs sajaro seqtorSi xarjvis gadamwyveti da SerCeviTi SeRavaTebiT vafinansebT – ise, rom ar vexebiT servisebs, magram vaxorcielebT xarjvis revizias, raTa is ekonomikis mamoZravebeli Zala gavxadoT. samuSao adgilebis Seqmna, gansakuTrebiT axalgazrdebisTvis, gadaudebeli gamowvevaa italiisa da mTeli evropisaTvis. italiaSi SromiTi bazris yovlismomcveli reforma daviwyeT. igi efuZneba mudmivmoqmed sakontraqto sistemas, romelic dasaqmebulTa uflebebis mudmiv zrdas, samsaxuris gareSe darCenilebis (gansakuTrebiT, qalebis) gaZlierebul dacvas, da kompaniebisTvis dasaqmebis motivaciis Seqmnas iTvaliswinebs. italiisTvis es gabeduli, fundamenturi cvlilebaa. dabolos, magram aranakleb mniSvnelovani: 2015 weli ganaTlebis sferoSi revolucias moitans. axali akademiuri wlis dasawyisSi, sajaro konsultaciebis Semdeg, romelSic maswavleblebi, mSoblebi da moswavleebi iyvnen CarTuli, italiuri skolebi safuZvlianad Seicvleba. es aris investicia momavalSi – xvalindeli italia dRevandel skolebzea damokidebuli. Tu gvsurs msoflios vaCvenoT, rom qveyana realurad icvleba, rom igi jansaRia da SeuZlia samagaliTo gaxdes, saamisod gvaqvs `eqspo 2015~ milanSi. es araordinaruli SesaZleblobaa imisTvis, rom italiis siqvele msofliosa da milionobiT stumris yuradRebis centrSi movaqcioT. magram is aseve iqneba Sansi, rom resursebSi miliardobiT evros mobilizeba moxdes da aTiaTasobiT samuSao adgili Seiqmnas.

ukan – evropuli ocnebisken Cven gvinda zrdas davubrundeT da Cven amas SevZlebT. evropasac sWirdeba zrdasa da samuSao adgilebis Seqmnaze damajereblad koncentrireba. evropa dRes stagnacias ganicdis. axalma komisiam gamoacxada, rom 300 miliard evros gamoyofs kursis Sesacvlelad. Cven Tvals mivadevnebT amis ganxorcielebas, da sabanko sistemas movTxovT, ekonomikur zrdas Seuwyos xeli – igulisxmeba biznesisa da mosaxleobisTvis evropis centraluri bankis mier gamoyofili 200 miliardi evros daniSnulebisamebr gamoyeneba. magram evropa bevrad didia, vidre ekonomika. mas SeuZlia da unda daubrundes imas, razec misi damfuZneblebi ocnebobdnen. msoflios sWirdeba evropa, romelsac sjera sakuTari Rirebulebebis, da principebis, romelzec igi dafuZnda – dawyebuli, mSvidobisken mowodebiT... evropa, romelic ekonomikuri Zalauflebis miRma, ukiduresad delikatur periodSi, msoflio wesrigis gadamwyveti komponentia, da romelic yvelasgan met pasuxismgeblobas moiTxovs. evropaSi, 2015 wels, amas SevasrulebT. Cven 365 dRe gvaqvs. maTgan arc erTi dRis gaflangva ar gvepatieba. n

msoflio 2015

britaneTi amave seqciaSi: Sotlandia referendumis Semdeg 36 megobruli rCeva italiisgan 37

naxvamdis, „lend rover difendero“ 37 gadawyvetileba asafreni bilikis Sesaxeb 38

flirti eleqtroenergiis gaTiSvebTan 38 fransua heisburgi: mokrZalebuli `antanta~ 39

koalicia, gagrZeleba jeims astili

umravlesobas verc erTi politikuri partia miiRebs

akritikebs leiboristebis liders misi sakuTari amomrCevelic ki, romelTagan mxolod naxevarze naklebi andobs mas ekonomikis marTvas. ramdenadac arCevani dadgeba baton kameronsa (romelic britanelebs mis partiaze metad moswonT) da baton milibends Soris (romelic maT naklebad moswonT), umravlesoba torebis axlandel liders amjobinebs. Sotlandiis nacionaluri partiis aRzeveba (ramac SesaZloa leiboristebs SotlandiaSi misi 41 adgilis naxevari waarTvas), aseve „mwvaneebis“ aRzeveba (ramac SesaZloa Seasustos misi yofili liberal-demokratis moulodneli warmateba), saarCevno verdiqts kidev ufro kategoriuls gaxdis. daqucmacebuli xmebiTa da koaliciebis albaTobiT, britaneTis politika TandaTanobiT CrdiloeT evropuls emsgavseba. Tumca, misi kultura Sxamiani ritorikiT gajerebuli da konfrontaciuli rCeba. zizRi, romelsac parlamentis TemTa palatis rigiTi wevrebi torebidan liberal-demokratebis umeteswilad konstruqciuli lideris nik qlegis mimarT iCenen, amis ilustraciaa. es ukiduresad damRupvelia. imdenad, ramdenadac amomrCevlebs politikur sistemasTan raime saxis gvarovnuli siaxlove ar gaaCniaT, maTi umravlesoba am mtrobas ganixilavs, rogorc araefeqtian kinklaobas politikosebs Soris, romlebic gansakuTrebiT socialur da ganaTlebis sferoSi poziciebiT ufro hgvanan erTmaneTs, vidre gansxvavdebian. koaliciuri marTvis gamocdilebam (ris mimarTac umravlesoba neitral-

2015 mokled britaneTi wlis bolos indoeTsa da samxreT afrikas yvela saxis daxmarebas Seuwyvets

015 wlis maisSi britaneTi sayovelTao arCevnebs gamarTavs, romelSic araferia prognozirebadi, garda im stresisa, romelsac is vestminsteris ukve moryeul sistemas moutans. am sistemam – umravlesobis dominaciaze dafuZnebulma maJoritarulma da konfrontaciulma, orpartiuli konkurenciidan stabiluri mTavrobebi warmoSva. Tumca momavali brZola gadatvirTuli iqneba imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom xuTi nacionaluri partia sul mcire xmebis 5%-s elodeba, xolo Sotlandiis nacionalur partias (SNP) referendumis Semdgomi bumi aqvs. Sedegad, britaneTs omis Semdeg ukve mesame parlamenti eyoleba (axlandeli meorea), romelsac qmediTi umravlesoba ar aqvs. mTavroba, romelic Seiqmneba, albaT, axlandelis msgavsi iqneba – konservatorebisa da liberalebis koalicia, rasac didi gaurkvevloba mohyveba da, Tavis mxriv, britanelebis umravlesobaSi politikiT ukmayofilebis grZnobas gazrdis. Tanamedrove droSi yvela sayovelTao arCevnebs is partia igebda, romelsac ekonomikisa da liderobis sferoSi yvelaze maRali ndoba hqonda. devid kameronis mmarTvelobis dros, torebi leiboristul partias orive flangze bevrad uswreben. Tumca am upiratesobebis Sesusteba britaneTis gamxleCi arCevnebis ori Sedegia: pirveli – memarjveneebi gayofilebi arian. naijel farajis mxiaruli liderobis dros, gaerTianebuli samefos partiam 2010 wels xmebis 3% miiRo; amjerad, torebis xarjze is daaxloebiT 10%-s miiRebs. meore – memarcxeneebi ufro gaerTianebulebi arian. liberal-demokratebs torebTan gaerTianebis gadawyvetilebam mxardamWerTa daaxloebiT ori mesamedi daakargvina, romlebic ZiriTadad leiboristebs miemxrnen. britaneTis saarCevno olqebis usamarTlod dadgenili sazRvrebis gaTvaliswinebiT, rac niSnavs, rom leiboristebs adgilebis mosagebad ufro naklebi xma sWirdebaT, vidre torebs, leiboristebs didi Sansi aqvT, rom opoziciaSi erTi vadis gatarebis Semdeg, kvlav xelisuflebaSi dabrundnen. fsonis CamomsvlelTa umravlesoba amas elodeba – im logikiT, rom leiboristebs mxolod ZiriTadi mxardaWerisa da gandgomili liberal-demokratebis SenarCuneba sWirdebaT, raTa ed milibendi dauning stritis 10 nomerSi gaamweson. rogorc Cans, memarcxene dapirebebis seriaSi man es hipoTeza Tavis `centralur strategiad~ gamoacxada. Tumca es gegma ukan-ukan midis, imdenad Zlierad

jeims astili: politikis redaqtori da Bagehot-is svetis avtori, The Economist

britaneTi

msoflio 2015

damarcxebidan gamarjvebebis Sekowiweba jeremi qlifi, glazgo

saubari Sotlandiis gamoyofaze miCumdeba. gamoyofis momxreebi ki ar gaCumdebian

014 wels Sotlandielebma damoukidebloba uaryves. 2015 wels separatistebi xels ar Caiqneven da yvelafris miuxedavad, winsvlas gaagrZeleben. gazafxuli sam did movlenas moitans: aprilSi, axali uflebebis wyeba, qonebis tranzaqciebze gadasaxadebis, kontrolisa da narCenebis gadamuSavebis CaTvliT, 2012 wlis Sotlandiis aqtis Tanaxmad, londonidan edinburgs gadaecema. daaxloebiT amave dros, erTianobis momxre vestminsteris partiebi sayovelTao arCevnebis maraTonSi CaerTvebian da amomrCevels uflebaTa kidev ufro met delegirebas SesTavazeben, sabinao SeRavaTebisa da saSemosavlo gadasaxadze Semdgomi kontrolis CaTvliT, riTac im panikur dapirebebs Seasruleben, rac Sotlandielebis dasarwmuneblad dasWirdaT, rom maT xma damoukideblobis winaaRmdeg miecaT. maSin Sotlandiis `dreifi~ danarCeni gaerTianebuli samefosgan kvlav gagrZeldeba. da rac yvelaze mniSvnelovania, gamoyofis momxre Sotlandiis nacionalisturi partia (SNP) maisis sayovelTao arCevnebis win saboloo konferenciaze Seikribeba. igi amas nikola sterjenis – ministris (aleqs salmondis, romelic referendumis Semdeg gadadga) yofili pirveli moadgilis xelmZRvanelobiT ganaxorcielebs. am droisTvis Sotlandiis nacionalisturi partia wevrebis ricxvis mxriv britaneTis yvelaze didi politikuri gaerTianeba iqneba. partias daaxloebiT 100 000 wevri eyoleba (seqtembris referendumamde 25 000 iyo), rac Sotlandiis mosaxleobis 2%-s udris. wevrebis zrda memarcxene amomrCevlis xarjze moxda, romelic referendumis kampaniis dros damoukideblobis

2015 mokled msoflios yvelaze popularuli safosto markis – Penny Black -is 175 wlis iubileze filatelias yvelaferi SeuZlia

ideam gaitaca da Semdeg brZolis gasagrZeleblad SNP-s SeuerTda. isini radikalebi da umetesad axalgazrdebi arian, da amdenad, SNP-is tradiciulad konservator (`tartan torebis~ saxeliT cnobil) wevrebs aaforiaqeben. es gansxvavebebi partiis gazafxulis konferenciaze zedapirze amotivtivdeba. axali wevrebi SNP-is politikis marcxniv gadasaxrelad, gansakuTrebiT sajaro xarjvis sferoSi, `kunTebs~ gamoiyeneben. isini agitacias daiwyeben, raTa partia amomrCevels simdidris gadasaxadis SemoRebas dahpirdes.

leiboristebis `Wknoba~?

Sotlandiis nacionalisturi partia (SNP) sayovelTao arCevnebSi mkveTrad social-demokratiuli dRis wesrigiT CaerTveba. SotlandiaSi leiboristuli partiis mimdinare kolafsTan erTad, es mas dasaqmebulTa klasis iseT bastionebSi, rogoric glazgo da dandia, adgilebis aRebis saSualebas miscems. leiboristebis gacxovelebuli TviTanalizi, romelic 2014 wlis oqtomberSi misi lideris gadadgomam gamoiwvia, kidev ufro intensiuri gaxdeba. batoni salmondi parlamentis wevrebis axalgafarToebuli gundis lideri iqneba vestminsterSi, sadac didi Zalauflebis garantiebs moipovebs SotlandiisTvis da mTavari partiis liderebs brwyinvalebiT gadaCrdilavs. darCenili ori partiis saqme kargad iqneba: Sotlandieli `mwvaneebi~, romlebmac agreTve damoukideblobas dauWires mxari, TavianTi xmebis zrdas moeswrebian (leiboristebisa da liberal-demokratebis xarjze). igive iTqmis konservatorebzec, romlebmac 2010 wlis arCevnebSi Sotlandiis 59 adgilidan vestminsterSi mxolod erTi moiges. partiis niWieri Sotlandieli lideris – ruT devidsonis wyalobiT, fiskaluri konservatizmis momxre amomrCevlis raodenobis zrdasTan erTad (ramdenadac

uri an pozitiuria) es STabeWdileba gaaZliera da, Tavis mxriv, politikiT sayovelTao imedgacrueba gaaRviva. igive gamoiwvia ekonomikuri vardnis xangrZlivma efeqtma xelfasebis Semcirebisa da neli zrdis CaTvliT, da, aseve, satelefono hakerobis skandalis Sedegad gazeTebis mimarT rekordulad maRalma undoblobam. orive iSviaTi SeRavaTia baton milibendisTvis, romelmac kampania wamoiwyo `cxovrebis maRali xarjebis~ winaaRmdeg, Tumca fasi britanuli demokratiisTvisac maRalia. 2015 wels amomrCevelTa ubnebSi misvlis maCvenebeli kidev ufro Semcirdeba.

gafrTxileba gamarjvebuls momdevno mTavrobas sxva rameebi eqneba sadardebeli: Tu torebi dabrundebian, batonma kameronma britaneTis evrokavSirSi wevrad `darCena-gasvlis~ referendumis piroba dado, rasac liberal-demokratebi ar dablokaven. es wveT-wveTobiT gamoaclis mTavrobas dros da miuxedavad imisa, rom baton kamerons es ar surs, saqme SeiZleba britaneTis mier evrokavSiris

sterjeni Tavisi partiis grZelvadian erTgulebas daicavs

gadasaxadebis zrdis uflebis Semdgomi delegireba xdeba), partia torebis yofil `cixe-simagreebSi~, magaliTad pertSairiSi, kidev ramdenime adgils aiRebs. Sotlandiis 2016 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis moaxloebasTan erTad, wlis meore naxevari SNP-isTvis daZabuli iqneba. zogierTi tartan tori partias datovebs. zogierT axal wevrs imedi gaucruvdeba. isinic wavlen. memarcxene sterjenis liderobis stili, – sityvaZunwoba da mesaidumleebis viwro wreze mindoba – gaRizianebas gamoiwvevs. evrokavSiridan britaneTis gasvlis gazrdili albaToba bevrs ubiZgebs SNP-is momavali saparlamento vadis dros gamoyofis brZolis ganaxlebisken mouwodos. qalbatoni sterjeni am mowodebebs SeewinaaRmdegeba, Tumca am miznis mimarT Tavisi partiis grZelvadian erTgulebas daicavs. Sotlandia 2016 wlisken ise gaemarTeba, rom damoukideblobis axali referendumis realuri perspeqtiva ar eqneba. Tumca, nacionalistebi marSs ganagrZoben da Tan damoukidebeli Sotlandiis ideasac SeinarCuneben. n jeremi klifi: politikuri korespondenti, The Economist

datovebiT damTavrdes. torebis premier-ministrma aseve piroba dado, rom inglisel amomrCevels met Zalauflebas miscems, raTa Sotlandielebis decentralizaciiT gamowveuli didi xnis konstituciuri anomalia gamoasworos. es cvlileba didi xnis win unda momxdariyo, magram mocemuli Tema mxolod premier-ministris kritikosebs adardebT, rac politikur enaze erTi adgilis tkepnas hgavs. vinc mTavrobas Camoayalibebs, fiskaluri simkacris axal, mZime raunds unda Seudges. Tu torebi moigeben, es momdevno parlamentis pirveli sami wlis ganmavlobaSi damatebiT 37 miliardi funtis Semcirebas (360 aSS dolari) niSnavs. Tu leiboristebi `Semoiparebian~, „qamrebis“ ufro mcire masStabis, magram mainc mtkivneuli „SemoWeraa“ mosalodneli. ufro didi gansxvaveba isaa, rom baton milibends, misi yofili gmiris – fransua olandis msgavsad, momxreebi mkacri realobisTvis jer ar Seumzadebia. amis Sedegad, es is arCevnebia, roca leiboristebs gulSi gauxardebaT, Tu waageben. torebzec SeiZleba igives Tqma. n

italiuri gakveTilebi bepe severnini, milani

cotaodeni megobruli rCeva 2015 wlisTvis

ritaneTisTvis 2015 weli fsiqoanalitikosis divanze gatarebuli 12-Tviani seansi iqneba. Sotlandiis Temaze, erTi referendumidan momavali da evropis Temaze, savaraudod, kidev erTi referendumisken mimavali, maisis sayovelTao arCevnebis saSualebiT, qveyana weliwads imis mcdelobebSi gaatarebs, rom gaigos, ra surs. italia SesaZloa STagonebis yvelaze naTeli wyaro naklebad iyos, magram sam sferoSi mrCevlad ki gamodges: jer erTi, gaerTianebuli samefos damoukideblobis partiis aRzeveba britaneTSi bevrisTvis Sokismomgvreli aRmoCnda. populizmsa da saprotesto moZraobebs, ZiriTadad memarjvene flangze, italiaSic hqonda adgili. isini didxans ar gagrZelebula. CrdiloeTis liga verc ki miuaxlovda gamoyofas, romliskenac is mouwodebda. bepe grilos xuTi varskvlavis moZraobam 2013 wlis sayovelTao arCevnebze miRebuli mxardaWeris meoTxedi ukve dakarga. rodesac maTi gamocda xdeba (roca ukve saqmis keTeba uwevT, rogoricaa wuwunis nacvlad, qalaqis marTva),

saprotesto moZraobebi da populizmi amomrCevlis enTuziazms acxrobs. naijel farajis traeqtoriam SesaZloa 2015 wels daRmavali gezi aiRos, im pirobiT, rom igi sami udidesi partiis akviatebis subieqti aRar iqneba da panikas umizezod ar miecema. meore – britaneTi imigraciaze `gminavs~, rac saarCevno kampaniis dros didi Tema iqneba. Tumca `Ria karis~ politikas Tavisi upiratesobebi aqvs – uamrav evropels bevri sxvadasxva qveynidan britaneTis ganviTarebaSi wvlili Seaqvs. aviRoT italielebi: britaneTSi daaxloebiT naxevari milioni varT, ori mesamedi londonSi, romelic axla italiis sididiT merve qalaqia. italielebis umravlesoba muSaobs – qalaqSi, industriaSi, universitetebsa da restornebSi. italielebi nacionaluri jandacvis servisis eqspluatacias ar axorcieleben. Tu isini saavadmyofoSi arian, meti albaTobaa, rom TeTr xalaTSi iqnebian, vidre sawolebs daikaveben. da mesame – evropa. Semdegma mTavrobam koncentracia iseTi axali kanonebis inicirebaze unda moaxdinos, rac sargeblobas ara mxolod britaneTs, aramed klubis yvela wevrs moutans. italiis premier-ministri mateo renci, Tavisi energiuli midgomiT, zustad amas akeTebs, da italiis sajaro finansebis gaTvaliswinebiT, misi molaparakebebis pozicia devid kameronisaze sustia. evropaSi yofnisas, CarTuloba ganze gulgril dgomas jobs. n

`lend rover difenderi~, xsovna iyos `lend roveris~ Seqmnis idea meore msoflio omis Semdeg daibada. ideis avtori `roveris~ mTavari inJineri moris sayvareli danjRreuli vailksia, romelic Tavis fermaSi, englavtos dasasruli siSi amerikuli `jipis~ saWesTan ijda. 947 wels uelsis sanapiroze mu- morisma sxva britaneli fermerebisTvis cladRebuli, inglisis dasavleT msgavsi avtomobilis saWiroeba dainaxa. misma qmnilebam – xmaurianma, jayjayam, midlendSi momdevno wels dabadebuli, mogvianebiT jer germanelebis mier (BMW), Semdeg ki indoelebis mier (Tata) naSvilebi `lend rover difenderi~ 2015 wlis dekemberSi xmauriT gamoglovili sikvdiliT gardaicvleba. sxva `lend roverebi~ – `disqaverebi~ da `renj roverebi~ – sicocxles ganagrZoben, magram eqspertebis TvalSi isini susti axalbedebi arian. da Tumca axal `difenders~ dagvpirdnen, konservatorebi skeptikurad arian ganwyobili. maT arasodes anaRvlebdaT saxeli, romelic mxolod 1991 wels gaCnda, da TavianT manqanas erTaderT WeSmarit `lend roverad~ miiCneven. erT-erTi qalbatoni mflobeli mokvdeba mxolod warmoeba da ara uSualod avtomobilebi. daSlisgan Sors sustZravianma, ureaqciom da arakommyofni. maTi umravlesoba sicocxles fortulma, Tavi daimkvidra rogorc didxans ganagrZobs. marTalia, zogierTs naloliavebma da gansakuTrebulad briukve paraven mosaxsnel nawilebs, radgan tanulma produqtma. avtomobilisTvis qurdebi nawilebis deficits winaswarm- uCveulod, man adgili inglisuri saetyveleben, magram mwarmoeblebi tra- bavSvo literaturis JanrSic ki daimkvibaxoben, rom odesme Seqmnili 2 milioni dra (`lendi~ da `fenderi~), `samarxebis `difenderis~ umetesoba kvlav dagoravs. mZarcvelsa~ da `bondianaze~ rom aRamaTi martivi dizaini, myari struqtura raferi vTqvaT. da aluminis sxeuli didxans gamZleobas garegnulad modeli wlebis ganmavganapirobebs. lobaSi cotaTi Seicvala, Tumca welis jon grimondi

britaneTi

msoflio 2015

2015 mokled mZRolis gareSe marTuli manqanebis floti milton keinesSi, specialur zolebSi daiwyebs moZraobas

bepe severnini: svetis avtori, Corrieredella Sera

xazze mcire amozneqiloba ganuviTarda, adreul Sua xanebSi dagrZelda da uTvalavi sxvadasxva mizeziT adaptireba gaukeTda. zogierTi misi nakli gamosworda. ufro didi Zravi, ukeTesi gadamcemebi, moZravi fanjrebi da sxva ganaxlebebi wlebis ganmavlobaSi dainerga – Cveulebriv, dagvianebiT da iaponiasTan konkurenciis pirobebSi. magram `lend roveris~ Sarmis nawils yovelTvis warmoadgenda misi jiuti winaaRmdegoba simartivisa da momxmareblis komfortis mimarT. is xiblavs mamac xalxs, romlebic tkbebian mtvriTa da siciviT, moswonT sulisSemxuTavi fanjrebi, mZafri tkivili yvela winaRobis daZlevisas da floben banqos gaqnili moTamaSis gamWriaxobasa da fizikur Zalas oTxi wamyvani borblis mqone uxarisxo manqanis samarTavad. Tumca, es sistema `lend roveris~ warmatebis kidev erTi arsebiTi faqtori iyo. igi SeiZleba uvargisia gzaze, magram gzis iqiT cota metoqe Tu hyolia. Tu mas udabno, junglebi, mkveTri aRmarTi Semoxvda, yvelafers ubralod dafqvavs. da Tu gafuWda, misi dizaini imdenad martivia, rom modelis SekeTeba rTuli ar aris. erTi dabrkoleba, romelic gadaulaxavi aRmoCnda, Tanamedrove kanonmdeblobaa. usafrTxoebis baliSebi, dabali emisia, yvela savarZlis wina mimarTulebiT ganTavseba da fexiT mosiaruleTa uflebebi `lend roveris~ xasiaTSi martivad ar jdeba. maT sakontrolo gasrolis SesrulebaSi sdeben brals. n jon grimondi: kontributori redaqtori, The Economist

britaneTi

TviTmfrinavis fiqrebi ema hogani

rogorc iqna, aeroportis tevadobis Sesaxeb gadawyvetileba Sedgeba

012 wlidan moyolebuli, yofili konsultanti da finansuri regulatori ser hovard devisi fiqrobs, Tu sad ganaviTaros britaneTis aeroportis damatebiTi simZlavreebi. mas Semdeg, rac arCevani britaneTis or yvelaze datvirTul aeroportamde – geTviksa da hisroumde daviwrovda, ser hovardi da misi aeroportebis komisia saboloo rekomendacias 2015 wels axalarCeul mTavrobas miscemen. isini hisrous mesame asafren biliks airCeven da amiT yvela partiis warmomadgenel politikosebs sagonebelSi Caagdeben. samxreT-aRmosavleT inglisSi aeroportis damatebas seriozuli safuZveli aqvs: mgzavrebis raodenobis mixedviT, msoflios yvelaze gadatvirTul aeroportebs Soris mesame – hisrou gadavsebulia, iseve rogorc pikur dros geTviki. ser hovardi miiCnevs, rom geTviki 2020 wlisTvis gadavsebuli iqneba, da mis kval-

2015 mokled `mTvrali avzebi~ – londonis metros zogierTi xazi SabaT-kviras, 24-saaTian momsaxurebas daiwyebs

mark jonsoni: gaerTianebuli samefos energetikis korespondenti, The Economist

msoflio 2015

dakval, sxva samxreTuli aeroportebic. am rekomendaciis wardgenisas, ser hovardi fsons mogzaurobis momavalze dadebs. hisrous gafarToebis argumenti efuZneba ideas, rom habis tipis aeroportebi britanuli ekonomikisTvis kvlav mniSvnelovania da Soreuli qveynebis ganviTarebad bazrebze frenebis SeTavazeba savaWro kavSirebis dasamyareblad sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania. amis sapirispirod, geTvikis momxreebi miuTiTeben dabalfasiani aviakompaniebis aRmavlobaze da imaze, Tu rogor Secvala man industriis saxe. ufro meti adamiani frenebs Soris gadajdomas TviTon agvarebs, rac didi satransfero habis aucileblobas amcirebs, – miaCniaT maT. geTvikis gafarToeba ki hisrousTan namdvili konkurenciis gawevas SeZlebda. politikosebs saqme gauadvildebodaT, ser hovardi da misi gundi SeTavazebas geTvikze Tu gaakeTeben. marTalia am versias zogierTi adgilobrivi ewinaaRmdegeba, magram igi gacilebiT naklebs daazaralebs, vidre hisrous SemTxvevaSi, sadac ramdenime mdidari dasavlurlondonuri saarCevno olqi brZolis dawyebiT imuqreba. aseve naklebad savaraudoa, rom geTviki partiebs Soris azrTa sxvadasxvaobas gamoiwvevs. londonis konservatorma merma boris jonsonma (romelsac axali hab-aeroportis

sinaTle ar CavaqroT mark jonsoni

britaneTi sibneleSi darCenas gadaurCeba – garkveuli safasuris sanacvlod

loceT, rom 2015 wels Tbili amindebi iyos. wlebia, rac britaneTis energoregulatori Ofgem gvafrTxilebs, rom qveyanas energia eleva. 2015 wlis bolosken eleqtroenergiaze saSualo pikur moTxovnasa da arsebul miwodebas Soris arsebuli sxvaoba 2012 wlis 14 %-dan 2%-ze kidev ufro dabla daecema. es 5%-iani aucilebeli buferis naxevarze naklebia, rac zogi Tavqarianis azriT, misaRebi minimumia. sarezervo moculobis nakleboba zrdis risks, rom roca yinvebs daiWers, an didi energosadguri daziandeba, sinaTle gaiTiSeba. am mimarTulebiT rame Tu ar gakeTda, sibneleSi darCenis Sansi oTxidan erTs aRwevs. problema didi xania axlovdeba. iafi qvanaxSiris uxvma maragebma qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebi waaqeza, rom evropuli regulaciiT gansazRvruli darCenili saaTebi bolomde gamoeyenebinaT. regulacia yvelaze damabinZurebeli tipis qarxnebis arsebobas zRvars uwesebs. male bevri daixureba, Tumca bevri ufro ZviradRirebuli gazze momuSave energosadguri daixura an droebiT gaCerda, xolo im gaurkvevlobam, romelic garemosdacviTi subsidiebis sferoSi britaneTis grZelma reformam moitana, firmebs maTSi reinvestirebis motivacia daukarga. marTalia ganaxlebadi energiebi amJamad britaneTis eleqtroenergiis 20%-s amaragebs, magram es danakliss ver Seavsebs. dagegmili axali birTvuli reaqtorebi

londonis gamosafxizlebeli mowodeba

Sesaxeb Tavisi xedva hqonda, ser hovardma ki xazi gadausva), aRniSna, rom hisrouSi kidev erTi asafreni bilikis mowyoba qalaqis mosaxleobisaTvis `barbarosulad sazizRari~ gaxdeboda. leiboristebis lideri ed milibendi Tavidan ewinaaRmdegeboda iq gafarToebas, magram is axla TiTqos yoymanobs. liberal-demokratebs ki es idea Zalian ar moswonT. magram ser hovardis ideebs ekonomikis moTxovnebi ganapirobebs: rogorc amas safren bilikebze daSvebis fasebic aCvenebs, aviakompaniebis umravlesobas surs hisrouSi iyos. nawilobriv aeroportis gamo, londoni msoflios erTerTi finansuri centria. rogorc ki ser hovardi verdiqts gamoitans, axalma mTavrobam samzadisi unda daiwyos. ai, maSin SeiZleba daiwyos diskusia, Tu sad SeiZleba moewyos meoTxe asafreni biliki. n ema hogani: britaneTis korespondenti, The Economist

somersetSi – hinqli pointSi sul cota 2022 wlamde ar aenTeba. bolo dros orma ramem gaarTula situacia: pirveli – britaneTis ekonomika bolo eqvsi wlis manZilze uswrafesi tempiT izrdeboda. aman gazarda moxmareba da krizisi daaCqara (rogorc wesi, eleqtroenergiaze pikuri moTxovnis 0.5%-iT zrda ekonomikuri zrdis yovel damatebiT procentul punqts axlavs). meore – britaneTis `gadaberebuli~ energosadgurebi ufro da ufro arasaimedod gamoiyurebian. agvistoSi, gegmiuri saremonto samuSaoebis dros aRmoCenilma bzarma britaneTis 16 birTvuli reaqtoridan 4 mwyobridan gamoiyvana. ivlisSi gaCenilma xanZarma iorkSirSi did energosadgur Ferrybridge C-ze koSkura Camoagdo da misi muSaoba gazafxulamde Seaferxa. energomomaragebis erovnuli sistema, romelic mTavrobis saxeliT maRali Zabvis qsels marTavs, ambobs, rom eleqtroenergiis danaklisis Sevsebas ori sadguri daexmareba, vidre 2016 wels qaris turbinebi da SeSaze momuSave generatorebi amuSavdeba. upirvelesad, sistema eleqtroenergiis firmebs gadauxdis, rom gaCerebuli gazis sadgurebi xelaxla gaxsnan, romlebic asanTebad mzad iqnebian, Tu civma dReebma amis saWiroeba moitana. meore – sistema seriozulad gaafarTovebs programas, romelic did qarxnebs Tanxas imaSi uxdis, rom SeaCeron operaciebi, roca moxmarebis riski miwodebas aWarbebs – savaraudod, saRamos 4 saaTsa da 8 saaTs Soris, civ samuSao dReebSi. es receptebi, albaT, yvela naTuras anTebuls SeinarCunebs, magram – sazRauris fasad. momxmarebels mouwevs orive programis dafinansebaSi wvlili Seitanos, xolo regulatorebi ufro efeqtiani energiis mopovebas iswavlian. britaneTis liberalizebuli energobazari, rogorc Cans, Cerdeba. n

britaneTi

msoflio 2015

mokrZalebuli `antanta~

015 wels, vuaxlovdebiT ra azinqortis brZolis me-600 wlisTavs (romelsac ingliselebi daJinebiT `ajinkorts~ uwodeben) da vaterloos me-200 wlisTavs, rom araferi vTqvaT ori msoflio omis mravalgzis gaxsenebebze, Cven Segvaxseneben, rom safrangeT-britaneTis urTierTobebSi omebi `saziaro avejia~. es exmareba imis axsnas, Tu ratom aris Tavdacva is sfero, sadac safrangeTma da britaneTma yvelaze `intimuri~ kavSirebi daamyares. miuxedavad imisa, rom britaneTi evrofobiisken gadaixara, safrangeTi ki evrozonaSi ufro Rrma integracias eswrafvis, Cveni qveynebi ise daaxlovdnen Tavdacvis sferoSi, rogorc arasodes. 2010 wlis noemberSi lankasteris palatis xelSekrulebis xelmoweram, Tavisi samxedro, Tavdacva-industriisa da birTvuli ganzomilebebiT, es procesi daagvirgvina. civi omis dasasrulamde, britanelebs NATO-s gareT Tavdacvis sferoSi TanamSromloba da aSS-sTan gansakuTrebuli urTierToba `gulze ar exatebodaT~, safrangeTi ki erovnul damoukideblobaze aqcentirdeboda. sabWoTa imperiis daSlam da omma bosniaSi (1992-1996 ww.), romelSic safrangeTi da britaneTi mTavari mamoZraveblebi iyvnen, naTelyo, rom evropul konfliqtebSi samxedro Careva aSS-is strategiis avtomaturi reJimi metad aRar iqneboda. roca gadawyvita, rom evros ar SeuerTdeboda, axalarCeulma toni blerma britaneTis evropis centrSi moqcevis gza ipova. es sent maloSi (1998 wlis dekemberSi), franko-britanuli samitis saSualebiT gakeTda, sadac orma qveyanam SemdgomSi evrokavSiris saerTo usafrTxoebisa da Tavdacvis politikis (CSDP) lideroba iTava. CSDP ufro warmatebuli xmauriani lozungebis SeqmnaSi aRmoCnda (`mTavari mizani~, `sabrZolo jgufebi~), vidre istoriis Semcvleli samxedro ganlagebebis ganxorcielebaSi. 2003 wels kongoSi genocidis Tavidan acileba da afrikis rqaze mimdinare antimekobruli patrulireba misi yvelaze mniSvnelovani kontribuciaa. am mokrZalebul wvlilSi nawilobriv erayis krizisia damnaSave, romelmac evrokavSiri da NATO Suaze gaxliCa, xolo CSDP -is operaciebisTvis britaneTis Zalebi miuwvdomeli gaxada. am movlenis miRma, evrokavSiris integraciis procesis dabrkolebam da recesiis Semdeg evroskepticizmis sayovelTao zrdam ganapiroba is, rom CSDP SezRudul instrumentad rCeba, romelSic evrokavSiris wevrebi mcire politikur da strategiul kapitals Cadeben. konkurenciis ararsebobis gamo, CSDP-is sanaxevrod Cavardnam, britaneTsa da safrangeTs, rogorc evropis or umniSvnelovanes samxedro Zalas, saerTo miznebsa da motivebze dafuZnebuli, sakuTari mudmivi aliansis Seqmnis SesaZlebloba misca. gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos mudmivi wevrebis adgilTa damsaxurebis mudmivi ambicia arsebiTad mniSvnelovania. msoflioSi, sadac SeerTebul Statebs sakuTari prioritetebi aqvs, londonsa da parizsac meti mizezi gaaCniaT, rom

erTad imuSaon. is, rom usafrTxoebis sferoSi, birTvuli da dazvervis saqmeebis sferoSi Zlieri frangul-amerikuli TanamSromloba Sedga, britaneTs damSvidebaSi daexmara. erToblivi orientirebis SemuSavebas aseve udidesi mniSvneloba aqvs. es gansakuTrebiT atomur sferos exeba, sadac TiToeuli qveynis SesaZlebloba, mtruli Zalebis SeCerebis aucileblobasTan erTad, garkveulwilad erToblivi metoqeobis Sedegia. ai, aq aris paradoqsi. lankasteris palatis xelSekrulebebis birTvuli nawili, birTvuli iaraRis marTvaSi erTobliv muSaobaze, 50-wlian valdebulebas moicavs. es uaRresad mrZnobiare sferoa da ormxrivi ndobis gansakuTrebul dones saWiroebs. Tumca es nawili ufro rTulad ar xorcieldeba (SesaZloa, ufro martivadac ki), vidre misi ufro rutinuli nawilebi. es emyareba ormxriv aRiarebas, rom erTi qveynis sasicocxlod mniSvnelovani interesebi ar SeiZleba riskis winaSe aRmoCndes ise, rom meores interesebsac ar daemuqros. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, pirobiT interesebze uTanxmoebam (rogoricaa omi eraySi) SesaZloa tradiciuli samxedro TanamSromloba daabrkolos, magram birTvuli TanamSromloba saerTo, arsebiT interesebs efuZneba. es aris aliansi am sityvis absoluturi gagebiT. igi SeiZleba iyos mokrZalebuli, magram is ufro metia, vidre `antanta~.

Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégiqueis specialuri mrCeveli fransua heisburgi SekiTxvas svams, Tu ram SeiZleba Searyios britaneTsa da safrangeTs Soris saocrad mWidro kavSiri Tavdacvis sferoSi

kidev erTi vaterloo? Politically, a „Brexit“ (British exit from the EU) in combination with a step-change towards full-blown EU federalism, including foreign and security policy, would make it impossible to sustain a bilateral alliance between a non-EU Britain and a province of a federalising EU. ra SeiZleba gafuWdes? politikurad, britaneTis gasvla evrokavSiridan, evrokavSiris federalizmisken SemobrunebasTan erTad, sagareo da usafrTxoebis politikis CaTvliT, araevropul britaneTsa da federalizaciis gzaze mdgomi evrokavSiris provincias Soris ormxrivi aliansis SenarCunebas SeuZlebels gaxdis. ekonomikurad swrafad mzardi britaneTisa da stagnaciaSi myofi safrangeTis daSorebis gaxangrZlivebam SesaZloa or Tanaswors Soris arsebuli aliansis ormxrivi saerTo orientirebis SenarCuneba SeuZlebeli gaxados; magram amas SesaZloa marTlac didi dro dasWirdes, radganac Tavdacvis SesaZleblobebi mravali aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi yalibdeba. yvelaze didi gamowveva, savaraudod, 2015 wlis arCevnebis Semdeg britaneTSi birTvuli debatebis ganaxlebas moyveba. Tavdacvis xarjebSi didi zrdis ararsebobis fonze, britaneTs arabirTvuli kapitalis xarjebis mkveTrad Semcireba mouwevs, raTa traidentis wyalqveSa Zalebis ganaxleba daafinansos. ormocdaaTwlovani xelSekrulebis postulatebi, romlis mizanic saerTo birTvuli momavali iyo, albaT, gamocdis winaSe dadgeba.n

miuxedavad imisa, rom britaneTi evrofobiisken gadaixara da safrangeTi ki evrozonaSi ufro Rrma integracias eswrafvis, Cveni qveynebi ise daaxlovdnen Tavdacvis sferoSi, rogorc arasodes

msoflio 2015

SeerTebuli Statebi amave seqciaSi: 2016 wlis maraToni 42 obamaqeas zRvruli wertili 43 mxolod SesaZlebelia… 43 rogor moiqceva federaluri

rezervi 44 Svilebi bolos da bolos saxlidan midian 45 silikonis veli fizikur saxes iZens 45

upiloto TviTmfrinavebi afrindebian 46 ian bremeri: sagareo politikis prezidenti 47

prezidentis yvela kalami devid renie vaSingtoni

mosalodnelia mTavroba brZanebulebiT da vetoTi

2015 mokled kalifornia pirveli Stati xdeba, romelic supermarketebSi polieTilenis erTjeradi parkebis gamoyenebas krZalavs

rezidenti baraq obama 2015 welSi oponentebis – respublikuri partiis mier kontrolirebadi kongresis daqvemdebarebaSi Seabijebs. mas Semdeg, rac noembris Sualedur arCevnebSi senatze kontroli respublikelebma aiRes da warmomadgenelTa palataSi memarjveneebis umravlesoba gaamyares, batoni obama STambeWdavi berketebis amara darCa, razec xeli `koWl ixvebsac~ ki miuwvdebodaT: debatebis mowvevis, saprezidento gankargulebaze xelis moweris da administraciuli RonisZiebebis ganxorcielebis uflebamosileba. `me maqvs kalami, da maqvs telefoni~ – baton obamas uyvars am frazis Tqma. demokratebi am `kalamze~ did imedebs amyareben. maT imedi aqvT, rom TeTr saxlSi ori wlis ganmavlobaSi darCenili baraq obama gankargulebebis „niaRvars“ moawers xels iseT gansxvavebul sferoebSi, rogorebicaa imigracia, garemos dacva da kriminaluri samarTlis politika. miuxedavad imisa, rom saprezidento gankarguleba advilad SeiZleba Seicvalos, kongresis mier miRebul kanonebTan SedarebiT, batoni obamas mokavSireebi fiqroben, rom prezidentis brZanebulebebs mainc SeuZlia qveyanas ufro progresuli mimarTulebiT ubiZgos. isini imedovneben, rom zogierTi cvlileba xangrZlivi vadiT imoqmedebs. magaliTad, maT sjeraT, rom saprezidento brZanebulebebi, romlebic aralegal imigrantebs deportaciisgan icavs, momavali mTavrobebisTvis gardauvals gaxdis im mwvave sakiTxis mogvarebas, rogoricaa dokumentaciis gareSe qveyanaSi myofi 11 milioni migrantis legalizacia. maT surT obamas `kalamma~ iseTi poli-

tika daakanonos, rom 2016 wlis arCevnebis win respublikelebi radikalurebi an realobisgan mowyvetilni gamoCndnen, rac demokratebs TeTri saxlis SenarCunebasa da savaraudod, senatis dabrunebaSi daexmareba. obamas `kalamze~ ambicia respublikelebsac aqvT. miuxedavad imisa, rom 2010 wlis Semdeg, roca warmomadgenelTa palata respublikelebma daikaves, da prezidenti orad gayofili mTavrobis pirobebSi muSaobs, demokratebma senatSi kedeli aRumarTes da konservatorebis mier Seqmnil nebismier kanonproeqts blokavdnen. axla, roca kongresis orive naxevars respublikelebi akontroleben, obamas mouwevs, rom maT mier warmodgenil nebismier kanons Tu biujetis gegmas xeli moaweros an dablokos. optimistebi irwmunebian, rom SesaZloa es gasaocrad konstruqciuli momenti iyos. maTi azriT, baton obamas surs Tanamdebobidan ise wavides, rom memkvidreoba moitovos, xolo respublikelebma Tavs uflebas ver unda miscen 2016 welSi ise Seabijon, rogorc partiam, romelmac mxolos `aras~ Tqma icis. metic – respublikelebs dauxmareblad ar gaaCniaT 60-xmiani superumravlesoba, rac senatSi saqmeebis gadasawyvetad aris saWiro. ise rom, partia iZulebuli iqneba pragmatuli, problemebis mogvarebaze orientirebuli RonisZiebebi eZebos, rac centristulad ganwyobili demokratebis mcire raodenobas xiblavs. optimistebma (gansakuTrebiT, respublikelebis biznesis interesebis damcvelma `mmarTvelma~ frTam), SesaZloa RonisZiebebis wyeba Camoamwkrivos, romlebze xelis mowerazec uaris Tqma, maTi rwmeniT, baton obamas gauWirdeba. es exeba orpartiul mcdelobas korporaciuli gadasaxadis kanonis gasamartiveblad, rac biznesis bevr xelmZRvanels aiZulebs Semosavlebi sazRvargareT Seagrovos an Stabbina ucxoeTSi gadaitanos. 2015 wlisTvis sxva respublikuri prior-

devid reni: vaSingtonis biuros ufrosi da avtori svetisa Lexington,

The Economist

20 wlis Semdeg, devid letermeni samsaxuridan midis da `gviani Ramis Sous~tovebs, xolo mas stefan jilberti cvlis

2015 mokled

SeerTebuli Statebi itetebi moicavs RonisZiebebs, mimarTuls navTobisa da gazis burRvis, aseve Keystone XL-is navTobsadenis gayvanis mxardaWerisken, romliTac navTobi kanadidan aSS-Si gaigzavneba. biznesis interesebis dasacavad ganwyobil respublikelebs surT maTi partia obamas gunds aziasa da evropasTan Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebebis dasrulebaSi daexmaros. ufro pesimistebi fiqroben, rom orwliani partiuli Cixi ori mizezis gamoa mosalodneli: pirveli – maTi TqmiT, respublikuri partia sakmarisad erTiani ar aris, rom baton obamas konstruqciuli konservatiuli politika SesTavazos, imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom respublikuri istebliSmenti xelfexSekrulia ukompromiso `Cais wveulebis~ moZraobis populistebis mier, gansakuTrebiT warmomadgenelTa palataSi, romelic ver itans kompromiss da ar adardebs is, Tu ra surs did bizness. meore – pesimistebi SiSoben, rom respublikuri partiis pozitiurad warmoCenisken (obamasTan erTad ramdenime kanonis miRebiT) mowodebebs CaaxSobs moTxovnebi, rom prezidenti gamoCndes negatiurad (misTvis warmatebis Sansis armicemiT da im

msoflio 2015 ideis gamyarebiT, rom demokratebs mTavrobaSi verasodes unda endo). kongresis respublikeli liderebi am konstruqciul da nihilistur scenarebs Soris `napralis Sevsebas~ ecdebian. isini baraq obamas kabinetSi ramdenime mokrZalebul konservatiul kanonproeqts gagzavnian da prezidents SesTavazeben Tvali Seavlos im politikas, rac respublikelebis rwmeniT, samuSao adgilebs Seqmnis da stimuls miscems zrdas – im pirobiT, Tu TeTr saxls da kongress isini gaakontroleben. amave dros, respublikelebs cduneba eqnebaT, rom TavianTi gavlena biujetisa da xarjviTi kanonproeqtebis sferoSi gamoiyenon, raTa obamas dRis wesrigis zogierT aspeqts dafinanseba SeuzRudon (magaliTad, garemosdacviTi regulaciebis sferoSi). orpartiuli TanamSromlobis `fanjara~ 2015 wlis bolosken `daxurvas~ daiwyebs, radganac cnobili respublikelebi saprezidento praimeris sezonisTvis samzadiss Seudgebian. obamas bolos wina weli Tanamdebobaze rTuli iqneba, magram bevri saqmis gasakeTeblad SesaZloa igi ukanaskneli iyos. n

im didis molodinSi jon praido, vaSingtoni

2015 wels gamarTuli arCevnebi mianiSnebs, Tu ra moxdeba 2016-Si

u erTi kvira bevria politikaSi, maSin 22 Tves – periods, romelic marsze sami gafrenisTvis aris sakmarisi, yvelaze metad mouxdeba, rom era davarqvaT. 2015 wlis ganmavlobaSi aSS-is politikuri klasis saerTo yuradReba 2016 wlis noembris saprezidento arCevnebze iqneba mimarTuli. xmauris Tavidan aridebis erTi gza iqneba yuradRebis im arCevnebze koncentrireba, romelic realurad 2015 wels gaimarTeba. am wels vixilavT sami gubernatoris kampanias – kentukiSi, luizianasa da misisipiSi. Rrmad samxreTSi mdebare Statebi myarad respublikuria da iq 2016 wlis Sedegis winaswarmetyvelebas didi azri ar aqvs. kentuki gansxvavebulia. miuxedavad imisa, rom saprezidento rbolebSi isic respublikuria, misi warmavali gubernatori demokratia. 1990 wlamde Statis politika im models misdevda, romelic samoqalaqo omis dros Camoyalibda. aRmosavleTiT, kavSiris momxre nawili xmas aZlevda respublikelebs; odesRac monebiT dasaxlebuli dasavleT nawili demokratebs uWerda mxars. Tumca, bolo ramdenime aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, kentukim respublikelebisken Secvala mimarTuleba. es procesi daaCqara axlaxan mTeli Statis masStabiT qvanaxSirze momuSave energosadgurebisTvis federaluri regulaciebis SemoRebis gamo Seqmnilma gaRizianebam: aRmosavleTi, sadac rogorc leonart pitsi wers, gzebi `miiklakneba rogorc gveli, romelsac koSmari daesizmra~, qvanaxSiris qveyanaa. Sedegad, mosalodnelia, rom kentuki respublikel gubernators airCevs.

magram rogors? wlis udidesi politikuri ambavi iqneba saga, romelic respublikelebis mmarTvel frTas partiis momavali revolucionerebis winaaRmdeg aamxedrebs. tendenciis mixedviT, gubernatoris arCevisas amomrCeveli upiratesobas pragmatistebs ufro aniWebs, vidre ideologias, ise rom, mmarTveli frTa upiratesobiT daiwyebs. Tumca kentukis Sidapartiul dapirispirebas yuradRebiT daakvirdebian, raTa misi saSualebiT partiis nacionaluri ganwyobis Sesaxeb Seityon. Statis sakanonmdeblo organos arCevnebi luizianaSi, misisipiSi, niu-jersiSi da virjiniaSi Catardeba. or aRmosavleT sanapiros konkurencias 2016 wels garkveuli mniSvneloba eqneba. niu-jersi saintereso gamodgeba, radgan misi respublikeli gubernatori qris qristi partiis mraval mTavar saprezidento kandidats Soris erT-erTia. batoni qristis mimzidveloba misi unaria, moxiblos amomrCeveli, romelic Cveulebriv situaciaSi xmas sxva partias miscemda, da aseve misi survili, sabiujeto disciplinis saxeliT sajaro seqtoris profkavSirebTan brZolaSi CaerTos. misi mimzidvelobis meore aspeqtis saqme bolo dros kargad ver wavida: qristis administraciam atlantik siTiSi azartuli TamaSebidan dagegmili Semosavlebis moculoba gadaWarbebulad

Seafasa, ris Sedegadac Statis sarezervo fondi carielia da sareitingo saagentoebma niu-jersis valis reitingi dauqveiTes. Statis sakanonmdeblo organos saarCevno kampaniis dros, es mniSvnelovani Tema iqneba. virjiniaSi Statis sakanonmdeblo organos arCevnebi garkveul gamococxlebas moutans maT, vinc 2016 wlamde ver icdis. 2000 wlidan moyolebuli, virjiniam oTxive saprezidento arCevnebSi mxari gamarjvebuls dauWira. respublikelebs qveda palataSi daumarcxebeli umravlesoba gaaCniaT, magram Statis senati ufro daxvewilad aris gawonasworebuli. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom daswreba savaraudod dabali iqneba (radgan arc kongresis arCevnebia da arc saprezidento, amomrCeveli rom CaerTos), respublikelebma virjiniis senatze kontroli unda SeinarCunon. amaSi warumatebloba partiis Sansebs 2016 wels qveynis masStabiT Seuqmnis problemebs. roca es konkurencia gaCaRdeba, cnobili respublikelebis uCveulod didi raodenoba miniSnebebs gaakeTebs partiis saprezidento nominaciaze da amiT gamowveul `Wavls~ Seiswavlis. jgufi moicavs Svid gubernators an yofil gubernators (batoni qristi, rik peri, jeb buSi, kon kasiCi, skot volkeri, maik pensi da bobo jindali) da sul mcire oTx senators (ted kruzi, rend poli, marko rubio da rob portmani). ramdenadac maTgan vercerTi Seqmnis 2015 wels gadamwyvet upiratesobas, zogi maTgani dafiqrdeba, rom mit romnis meore Sansi misces. respublikuri „aliaqoTi“ kidev ufro gamococxlebuli gamoCndeba demokratebs Soris stagnaciis fonze. janmrTelobasTan dakavSirebuli raime moulodneli saSiSroebis gamoklebiT, hilari qlinTonis progresi misi partiis kandidatobisken daubrkoleblad gagrZeldeba. jon praido: vaSingtonis korespondenti, The Economist

SeerTebuli Statebi

msoflio 2015

zRvruli wertili rojer makSeini, vaSingtoni

rac ufro bevri adamiani ecnoba `obamaqeas~, miT metad rTuldeba misi gauqmeba

aaxloebiT xuTi weli gavida mas Semdeg, rac baraq obamam xeli moawera xelmisawvdomi jandacvis kanons, romelsac òbamaqeaTi~ ufro icnoben. amerikuli jandacvis sistemis uzarmazari gadaxaliseba miznad isaxavda jandacvaze xelmisawvdomobis gafarToebas da xarjis Semcirebas. mas Semdeg respublikelebma 50-ze metjer misces xma mis gauqmebas. zogierTi komponentis amoqmedeba dayovnda, xolo misi vebgverdis katastrofulma prezentaciam igi kinaRam CaZira. 2015 wels mas gacilebiT meti gamowveva eqneba, magram iseve, rogorc warsulSi, òbamaqea~ gamZle aRmoCndeba. Tumca, jer saCivrebis axali raundi daiwyeba. 2014 wlis oqtombramde 7 miliard adamianze metma gaakeTa òbamaqeas~ dazRvevaze ganacxadi, rac molodinze meti iyo. axla isini xelaxla unda gawevriandnen. umravlesobas ufro maRali premiis gadaxda mouwevs. uaresic – bevri ver gaiazrebs, rom am gadasaxadebSi mTavrobis wili Semcirebuli iqneba. maT, vinc Tavis finansur valdebulebebze ufro naTel suraTs eZebs, mouwevs, kvlav òbamaqeas~ `gadareul~ vebgverds SeeWidos. magram kanonis oponentebis prognozebis miuxedavad, premiebi ar gaizrdeba da amdenad, sistemaSi myofTa umravlesoba iq darCeba. Tumca mTavrobisTvis sistemis miRma darCenilebis mizidva ufro rTuli iqneba, radgan amerikelebis es dauzRveveli nawili òbamaqeas~ mimarT ufro skeptikuradaa ganwyobili. dazRvevis SeZenis àrakonstituciur~ mandatze bevri jer kidev wuwunebs. maT principebs gamocda elis, roca 2015 wels dafarvis arqonaze dajarimebebi daiwyeba. da mainc, administracias gauWirdeba kongresis sabiujeto ofisis `yoyoCa~ prognozis miRweva, rom Sua TebervlisTvis sistemaSi kidev 13 milioni adamiani gawevriandeba. imis miuxedavad, rom gawevrianebis tempi iklebs, òbamaqeaze~ mibmuli amomrCevlis raodenoba zrdas gaagrZelebs. milionobiT dazRveulis garda, eqimebi, saavadmyofoebi da mzRvevelebi sistemaSi investicias abandeben. provaiderebma angariSvaldebuli zrunvis organizaciebi (ACOs) daaarses, romlebic ufro efeqtiani momsaxurebis SeTavazebisTvis bonusebs iReben. am organizaciebis ricxvi 2015 wels gaizrdeba. moimatebs im adamianTa ricxvic, vinc òbamaqeas~ meorad bazarze sadazRvevo paketebs yidis. ufro meti klientisa da stabiluri riskis pirobebSi, isini dainaxaven, rom kanoni biznesisTvis arc ise cudia.

gasauqmeblad metismetad didi rac ufro metad izrdeba, `obamaqeas~ demontaJi miT ufro rTuldeba. es ver SeaCerebs respublikel kongresmenebs, romelTa mizanic kanonis gauqmebaa. qveyana kanonebTan mimarTebaSi yovelTvis gayofili iyo, xolo gamyofi xazi partiul interesebze gadioda. opozicia ufro cxarea. Sualeduri arCevnebis dros respublikelma kandidatebma TavianT demokrat oponentebze Tavdasasxmelad kanoni warmatebiT gamoiyenes, Tumca `obamaqeas~ politika icvleba da 2015 weli Semobrunebis wertili iqneba. respublikelebma am kanonis `demonizeba~ SeZles, radgan `mediqeasgan~ gansxvavebiT, igi ar aris aSkara identobis mqone Tanmimdevruli programa. aramed, igi politikisa da regulaciebis damabneveli krebu-

daxmarebis xeli

lia. bevri adamiani ver iazrebs, rom isini òbamaqeasgan~ sargeblobas iReben da amitom gamokiTxvebSi mis mimarT negatiuri ganwyobaa, miuxedavad imisa, rom kanonis zogierTi komponenti sakmaod popularulia. `realur òbamaqeasa~ da masze sazogadoebriv azrs Soris uzarmazari sxvaobaa~, – ambobs CrdiloeT karolinis universitetis jandacvis politikis profesori jonaTan oberlenderi. kanonma ufro didi Temebi Caanacvla – baton obamas prezidentobis, ufunqcio kongresisa da amerikis socialurad pasuxismgebeli mTavrobis CaTvliT. ise rom, òbamaqeaSi~ ufro meti adamianis gawevrianebis miuxedavad, igi kritikis katalizatori iqneba. Tumca, kanoni imdenad bevr adamians aZlevs sargebels sxvadasxva saSualebiT, rom politikosebs misi gauqmebis SeeSindebaT. amomrCevelma SeiZleba arasodes Tqvas, xelebi Soris Cemi obamaqeasgano, magram isini kanonis im nawilisTvis ibrZoleben, romelic maT moswonT. amdenad, rogorc ki 2016 wlis saprezidento kampania daiwyeba, òbamaqea~ brwyinvalebas dakargavs. da mainc, respublikeli kandidatebi kanonis gauqmebis konservatiul ocnebas sityvier samsaxurs gauweven – maSinac ki, Tu isini ver gabedaven imis dakonkretebas (dazRvevis SeZenis mandatis garda), òbamaqeas~ romeli komponenti gauqmdeboda. demokrati kandidatebi, Tavis mxriv, bolos da bolos xelsayrel situacias dainaxaven batoni obamas mTavari miRwevis xelSewyobasa da dacvaSi – yovel SemTxvevaSi, im nawilebis mainc, romlebic popularulia. amasobaSi, CixSi Sesuli kongresi kanonis gaumjobesebas ver SeZlebs, miuxedavad imisa, rom zogierTi cvlileba, rogoricaa kanondarRvevis farTo reforma, demokratebis mxardaWerasac moipovebs da respublikelebisasac. 2015 wlis bolosTvis, metismetad bevr pacients, eqims, saavadmyofos da mzRvevels eqneba òbamaqeaSi~ wili, misi gadaxaliseba rom moxerxdes. es is welia, romelic am kanonis garSemo brZolis dasrulebis dasawyisi gaxdeba. cudia es Tu kargi, òbamaqea~ wasvlas arsad apirebs. n mxolod SesaZlebelia… niu-iorki koloradosa da vaSingtonis Statebs uerTdeba da rekreaciuli mizniT, marixuanas legalizebas axorcielebs. aSS-is saxmeleTo jarebi eraySi moqmedebas iwyeben. baraq obama, bolos da bolos, guantanamos yuris patimrebisagan daclas SeZlebs.

2015 mokled ormocdaaTma welma Caiara mas Semdeg, rac lindon jonsonma `mediqeas~ kanons xeli moawera maSin, roca 65 wels gadacilebuli amerikelebis naxevars samedicino dazRveva ar hqonda

rojer makSeini: sajaro politikis korespondenti, The Economist

SeerTebuli Statebi

msoflio 2015

zrdida, ZiriTadad imitom, rom inflaciis afeTqebis saSiSroeba Cndeboda, Tumca 9 9 bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi inflacia bevrad 6 6 stabiluri iyo, xolo bolo dros is zedmetad dabali 3 3 dividendi 10 wlian saxazino obligaciaze ufro gaxldaT, vidre zedme0 0 tad maRali. bolo eqvsi wlis 95%-is ganmavlobaSi, in-3 -3 flacia federaluri rezervis 2%-ian gegmaze dabali *sezonurad cvalebadi kongresis sabiujeto ofisis prognozi 2014 wlisTvis wyaro: ekonomikuri analizis biuro; federaluri rezervis sabWo iyo, misi sasurveli samizne orientiriT (personaluri moxmarebis fasebis indeqsi sursaTisa da energiis CaTvliT) gazomvisas. 2014 wlis bolos inflacia kvlav 1.5% iyo. es ganakveTebis greg ipi, vaSingtoni zrdis tempsa da masStabs SezRudavs. metic – msoflioSi danazogebis siWarbe da invesmoemzadeT saprocento ganakveTebis 2015 mokled ticiebis naklebobaa, xolo saprocento ganakveTis mokrZalebuli zrdisTvis The Who Tavis 50 funqciaa am ors Soris balansi aRadginos. krizisamde wlis iubileze ulze Svidwliani pauzis Semdeg, saprocento periodSi danazogebis Warbi maragi ganviTarebad bazaSS-is garSemo rebze, gansakuTrebiT ki CineTSi fiqsirdeboda. Sida ganakveTebi 2015 wels normalurTan dabruneturnes florididan, bas daiwyebs. siurprizi iqneba imis gageba, Tu danazogebma ganviTarebad bazrebze 1990-ian wlebSi mSp-is 24%-dan 33%-s gadaaWarba 2008 wlisTvis da tampadan iwyebs am ekonomikur ciklSi ramdenad dabali SeiZleba aRmoCndes `normaluri~. federaluri fond- aseve SenarCunda. es sakmarisze metia am qveynebSi investiciebis (maRali) moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad. ebis ganakveTi 3%-s ar ascdeba. es yvelaze dabali ise rom, maT zedmeti Tanxebi mdidari qveynebis obmaCvenebelia, rac adreuli, 1950-iani wlebis Semdeg ligaciebis bazrebSi Cades, ramac saprocento gafederalur sarezervo sistemas dauwesebia mkacri nakveTebi dabla daswia. CineTis mimdinare angariSis politikis dros. obligaciebze mogeba amaze bevrad proficiti mas mere Semcirda, magram germaniis mkacmaRali ar iqneba. ri fiskaluri politikiT, Semcirebuli kreditiTa imis gasagebad, Tu ratom darCeba ganakveTebi dabda susti investiciebiT daSinebulma evrozonam misi ali, jer sjobs gavigoT, ratom moxda maTi Semcireba: adgili daikava – evrozonis mimdinare angariSis proyvelaze mTavari mizezi iyo federaluri rezervis gadawyvetileba, rom 1930-iani wlebis gakveTiliT da ficiti 2015 wels CineTisas gadauswrebs. globaluri danazogebis siWarbe saprocento ganakveTebis zrdas iaponiis 1990-iani wlebis gamocdilebiT exelmZRvanewertils dausvams. la da ekonomikaSi imdeni monetaruli stimuli Caedo, investiciebis simcire ufro didi gamocanaa, ramdensac SeZlebda. man federaluri fondebis gaTumca mogebis marJa TiTqmis arasodes yofila aseTi nakveTebi nulamde daswia da Semdeg trilionobiT maRali, xolo kreditebis fasi aseTi dabali. kapidolaris Rirebulebis samTavrobo bondebi SeiZina axalSeqmnili fuliT (`raodenobrivi Serbileba~), talis xarjva Sesustda. SeiZleba amis mizezi is aris, rom biznesi naklebadaa damokidebuli kapitalze. raTa obligaciebis dividendebi Seemcirebina. Zlieri `pirqari~ krizisidan gamosvlas arTu- magaliTad, damwyebma kompaniebma SesaZloa maTTvis saWiro yvela kompiuteruli programa „qlaudis“ salebs. Tumca, 2015 wlisTvis es `pirqari~ ZiriTadad `Cadgeba~. ojaxebi, mas Semdeg, rac ramdenime wlis SualebiT daiqiravon da amdenad, didi serverebis ganmavlobaSi qonebis gayidvis gziT iSorebdnen SeZena ar mouwioT. ufro mniSvnelovani, grZelvadiani saprocen(krizisamdel) valebs, kvlav vals iReben. kapitaliT to ganakveTebi grZelvadian zrdasTan (ix. grafa) savse bankebi bednierad asruleben TavianT rols: 2014 wlis bolosTvis maTi sesxebi 2008 wlis Semdeg mWidrod aris dakavSirebuli da mosalodnelia, rom yvelaze swrafi tempiT izrdeboda, xolo studen- mateba bevrad dabali iqneba momavali aTwleulis tebisa da avtomobilebis sesxebis sferoSi `buSt- ganmavlobaSi, vidre warsulSi iyo. swrafad mzardi ekonomikebi ufro maRal dividendebs iZlevian kapiebzea~ saubari. evropis suverenuli valis krizisi am droisTvis Camcxralia. axali federaluri simkacre talze, rac kompaniebs sasesxeblad stimuls aniWebs. produqtiulobis ufro maRali zrda niSnavs gazmosalodneli ar aris, da saxelmwifo da mTavrobebi rdil xelfasebs, da momxmarebels ubiZgebs Tavisi kvlav sesxuloben. samuSao adgilebis yovelTviuri momavali Semosavlis sawinaaRmdegod isesxos. nela zrda rbilad daCqarda, 2012 wlis 186 000-dan 2013-is 194 000-mde, da 2014 wlis pirveli cxra Tvis monacem- mzard ekonomikas ufro naklebi maRazia, qarxana da Ta mixedviT, 225 000-mde. 2015 wlis bolosTvis umu- ofisi sWirdeba, igi Trgunavs kapitalze mogebas da amdenad, ufro dabal investiciebamde mivyavarT. Sevrobis maCvenebeli 5.5%-ze dabla daecema – es is produqtiulobis zrda recesiis Semdeg SeCerda, donea, rac farTodaa miCneuli srul dasaqmebad. da samuSao asakis mosaxleoba weliwadSi mxolod 0.4%-iT gaizrdeba momavali aTwleulebis ganmavaxali normaluri aseT ekonomikas aRar sWirdeba aranormalurad dab- lobaSi, rac bolo ori aTwleulis maCveneblis naxevarze naklebia. grZelvadiani zrda, romelic 1993 da ali saprocento ganakveTebi, Tumca veRarc iseT ga2007 wlebis ganmavlobaSi saSualod 3.2%-s udrida, nakveTebs Seegueba, rac adre normalurad miiCneoda. SeiZleba 2%-s gautoldes momavali aTwleulis ganzogierTi faqtori, romelmac 1930 wels aSS-Si da mavlobaSi, an amaze dabali iyos. yvela am mizezis gamo, 1990 wels iaponiaSi imuSava, dResac arsebobs da sapgreg ipi: SeerTebuli federaluri sarezervo sistemis mier ekonomikisTrocento ganakveTebze uzarmazari gavlena aqvs. Statebis ekonomikis vis `morfinis~ miwodebis Sewyveta dabal saprocento istoriulad, federaluri sarezervo sistema redaqtori, ganakveTebs wertils ar dausvams. n politikas amkacrebda da obligaciebze dividends The Economist jamurad

nominaluri mSp, % zrda*

frTxili moqmedeba

2011 2012 2013 2014†

1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

budidan gafrenis droa robert gesti

axalgazrda mozrdilebi saxls sabolood datoveben

adrian vuldraiji

silikonis veli fesvebs ubrundeba

velaferi, rac mkvrivia, haerSi dneba...~ – bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, `komunisturi manifestidan~ amonaridi es fraza silikonis velis evoluciisTvis srulyofili aRweraa. yvelaze moduri kompaniebi saZiebo sistemis haerovan samyarosa da socialur qselebze fokusirdnen. sainJinro kompaniebi, romlebmac odesRac velis funqcia gansazRvres, CrdilSi gauCinardnen. momdevno aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, es yvelaferi Setrialdeba – haeri mkvrivi gaxdeba. 2015 wels es fusfusi (da fuli, romelic mas axlavs) socialuri mediidan Wkvian mowyobilobebze gadainacvlebs. yvelaze warmatebuli kompaniebi virtualuri da fizikuri samyaroebis dakavSirebaze fokusirdebian. Google-ma ukve iwinaswarmetyvela upiloto avtomobilis tendencia (Google Glass-is, robotebis da Nest-is 3.3 miliardi dolaris odenobis SenaZenis gaTvaliswinebiT), saojaxo Termostatebi. amas moyveba velis danarCeni produqcia. wlis moduri sityva iqneba `Casacmelebi~. magaliTad, samedicino mowyobilobebi, romlebic

mSoblebSi imedgacruebas iwvevs, rom umcrosma ver moaxerxa fexze dadgoma da isini brazdebian, rom igi WurWlis sarecx manqanas arasodes acarielebs. Tumca gamxnevdiT: 2015 wels sardafSi myofi gauparsavi usaqmuri bolos da bolos saxlidan gadava. mizezi rom gavigoT, upirvelesad unda vicodeT, ratom CarCa is iq. pirveli – Sromis bazarze ramdenime welia rTuli situaciaa, ris gamo bevrma axalgazrdam sakuTari binis daqiraveba an yidva ver SeZlo. meore – universitetis kursdamTavrebulebma iseTi usargeblo xarisxiTac ki, rogoric filmis Teoriaa, xSir SemTxvevaSi mozrdili studenturi vali daagroves. qiris gadasaxadis gareSe mSoblebTan cxovrebam maT am valebis gastumreba gauadvila da cota Tanxa ludis, iTunes-is da tatuebisTvisac morCaT. 2012 wels, 18-31 wlis amerikelTa uzarmazari raodenoba – 36% mSoblebis saxlSi cxovrobda, rac 2007 wlis 32%-is Semdeg, gaizarda. 2015 wels, ramdenime tendencia maT bargis CalagebaSi daexmareba: pirveli – SromiTi bazari gamococxldeba. umuSevroba finansuri krizisis Semdgomi periodis 10%dan, 2014 wels 6%-mde Semcirda da klebas 2015 welsac ganagrZobs. savsebiT savaraudoa, rom dasaqmebuli axalgazrdebi sakuTar binas moZebnian. meore – iseT `giJur~ qalaqebs Tu ar CavTvliT, rogoric niu-iorki da san-franciskoa, amerikaSi binebis fasi xelmisawvdomia. saSualo SemosavalTan mimarTebaSi, binis fasma bolo dros cota aiwia, magram 2006 wlis pikisgan mainc Zalian Sorsaa. yidva iqneba Tu daqiraveba, sivrce gacilebiT iafia amerikaSi, vidre evropaSi. mesame – bevri amerikeli, romelic mSoblebTan erTad cxovrobs, amis atanas metad veRar SeZlebs. maT

mudmivad akontroleben Tqveni sisxlis wnevas, glukozis dones, miRebul sakvebs, da getyvian, aris Tu ara raime problema mosalodneli. Casacmelebi obieqtebis mTeli armiis „pretorianeli mcvelebi“ iqnebian. internetze mibmuli saojaxo nivTebi ise moiqcevian, rogorc mosamsaxureebi serialSi Downton Abbey – mokrZalebulad auweven an dauweven Termostats, an zrdilobianad Segaxseneben, rom droa wyalsadenis ostati gamoiZaxo. manqanebi eleqtronulad daitenebian da ufro usafrTxo iqneba gzebze marTva da muSaoba. Wkviani mowyobilobebis aRzeveba silikonis vels saSualebas miscems Tavisi fesvebi, rogorc sainJinro centrisa, xelaxla aRmoaCinos. socialuri qselebis revoluciam veli mokle xniT gariya, magram inJinrebi yuradRebis sakuTar wils kvlavac moiTxoven. Tesla avtomobilebs awyobs palo altoSi. BMW-m, Mercedes-ma, Samsung-ma, Nissan-ma da General Electricma – yvelam kvlevisa da dizainis laboratoriebi daaarses. samedicino mowyobilobebis mwarmoebeli kompaniebic Zalebs ikreben.

2015 mokled Apple uerTdeba Facebook-s da qal TanamSromlebs kvercxujredis gayinvis dasafinanseblad 20 000 dolaramde Tanxas sTavazobs

ilmSi `cicqna aveji~ lena danhemis gmiri (iatakze mwoliare, rogorc zemoT, fotoze xedavT) kvlav dedasTan gadadis, radgan filmebis TeoriaSi usargeblo xarisxis miRebis Semdeg arc samsaxuri aqvs da arc arCevani. deda da Svili mudmivad Cxuboben. qalbaton danhemis gmiri `mowyenilobis gamo~ dedis faqizad movlil kabinetSi mTel Rvinos gamoclis da patimris msgavsad, tatus amoitvifravs. axalgazrda zrdasrulebisTvis mSoblebTan erTad cxovreba realobaSic rTulia. es damamcirebelia da potenciur romantikul partniorebs aferxebs.

fizikuri procesi

SeerTebuli Statebi

msoflio 2015

robert gesti: SeerTebuli Statebis redaqtori, The Economist

francisko ukve aris mowyobilobebis mwarmoebeli bevri kompaniis samSoblo, magaliTad, Lemnos Labs-is, da mas Sansi eqneba, rom socialuri qselebis centridan, `Casacmeli~ (wearable) modis centrad gardaisaxos. `Casacmeli~ revolucia gamoiwvevs ara mxolod silikonis velis kavSirTa gamyarebas Zvelmodur sainJinro firmebTan, aramed mowmes gagvxdis, rogor Seikvreba aliansebi modisa da dizainis iseT centrebTan, rogorebicaa niu-iorki, los-anjelesi da gansakuTrebiT, teqnologiisa da modis Serwymis energiuli pioneri – londoni. silikonis velze ZalTa balansi Seicvleba: socialuri mediis gigantebi, rogorebicaa Twitter-i da Facebook-i, `xnier qvrivebs~ daemsgavsebian. swrafad gamoCndebian axali gigantebi da sazogadoebriv warmodgenebSi maT Caanacvleben. obamas periodis `gadarCenilebs~ Soris iqneba Apple-i, romelic yovelTvis uTmobda yuradRebas mowyobilobebis Seqmnas (misi Apple Watch-i maRaziebSi 2015 wels gamoCndeba), da Google-i, romelic swrafad miiltvis axali samyarosken. Wkviani mowyobilobebi silikonis velis axalaRmoCenil seriozulobas mianiWebs. mewarmeTa axali Taoba saqmes iseT `acviaT~ amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi mowyobilobebTan daiWers, romlebsac siWkviani mowyobilobebis aRzeveba san- cocxlis gadarCena SeuZliaT. WeSmaritad franciskos aiZulebs yuradRebis meti – rac haerisaa, mkvrivi gaxdeba. n wili gadaulocos san-xoses. im yur- adrian vuldraiji: menejmentis redaqtori da adRebis, romelSic igi socialuri mediis avtori svetisa Schumpeter, bumis Semdeg `nebivrobda~. Tumca, san- The Economist

SeerTebuli Statebi

(njRreviT) afrena benjamin sazarlendi, santa-barbara

upiloto safrenma aparatebma SesaZloa cas miaSuron – bolos da bolos

ilotiani TviTmfrinavisgan gansxvavebiT, ufro dabla da nela mfreni, marcvleulis dasaTesi upiloto TviTmfrinavebi iseT wriul kvals toveben, rom gamofrqveuli pesticidebi foTlebis qveda nawilzec xvdeba. sargebeli `ubralod fasdaudebelia~, – aRniSnavs aeroplanebisa da vertmfrenebis piloti led sengeri, romelic dalasSi saaviacio samarTlis sferoSi moRvaweobs. upiloto TviTmfrinavebma aseve moitana gaumjobesebani da fasebis gaiafeba filmebis industriaSi, axali ambebis sferoSi, Zebnisa da samaSvelo operaciebSi, sasamarTlo fotografiaSi, saxanZro saqmeSi, arqeologiur kvlevebSi, sakvamurebis inspeqtirebisa da milsadenTa monitoringSi, vulkanebis, garemos dabinZurebisa da gareuli cxovelebis Seswavlis sferoebSi. arlingtonSi, virjiniaSi mdebare upoloto satransporto sistemebis saerTaSoriso asociacia (AUVSI) acxadebs, rom `iseTi ekonomikisTvis, rogoric amerikaa, sargebeli SesaZloa dReSi 27 milioni dolari iyos~. Tumca, amerika aseT sikeTes 2015 wlis 30 seqtembramde ver moimkis. es aris is bolo vada, romelic kongresma federaluri aviaciis administracias (FAA) upiloto TviTmfrinavebis sahaero sivrceSi usafrTxo integrirebisTvis wesebis SesamuSaveblad misca. amJamad maTi gamoyeneba mxolod rekreaciuli mizniT aris nebadarTuli. wesebi, romlebsac SemoiReben, metismetad mkacri Tu ar iqneba, AUVSI miiCnevs, rom es sfero sami wlis ganmavlobaSi 70 000 samuSao adgils da 13,6 miliard dolars SesZens amerikis ekonomikas. FAA ar gaamxels, ra nebarTvebia mosalodneli, magram zogierT damkvirvebels sjera, rom potenciur sargebels zedmetad mkacri regulaciebi Seamcirebs.

msoflio 2015

federaluri aviaciis administracia akrZalvis pirobebSi ramdenime gamonaklisis uflebas ukve iZleva, romlis Tanaxmadac upiloto TviTmfrinavebiT mkacrad SezRuduli sargebloba SesaZlebelia, Tumca am nebarTvis mopoveba iseTi rTulia, rom rogorc ufrosi sabaJo da sasazRvro oficeri ambobs, procesma `bevri kbilTa RrWena~ gamoiwvia (saagentos nebarTviT, amJamad cxra uiaraRo Predator B-tipis upiloto TviTmfrinavi dafrinavs). es cudis niSania iseTi firmebisTvis, rogoric Amazon-ia, romelic imedovnebs, rom amanaTebis miwodebas upiloto TviTmfrinavebiT daiwyebs. metic – `ivnisSi FAA-m gamosca Tavisi politikis `saSinlad mkacri~ interpretacia, romelic ise afarToebs mis mier regulirebuli TviTmfrinavebis gansazRvrebas, rom masSi aerTianebs bumerangebs, safren diskebs, xeliT gasaSveb planerebs~, – ambobs masaCusetsis smitis kolejis inJineri, profesori pol vosi. aTobiT universitetma daiwyo im sainJinro gakveTilebis gauqmeba, romlebic kampusis gazonebis Tavze mfrinavi obieqtebis gaSvebas iTvaliswinebs. batoni vosi Civis, rom mas Semdeg, rac kolejis TviTmfrinavis modelebs frena aukrZales, misi sahaero-dizainis klasma azri dakarga. man, 28 profesorma da administratorma sxvadasxva universitetebidan, harvardisa da stenfordis CaTvliT, federaluri aviaciis administraciis `gansacvifrebeli~ SezRudvebi peticiiT dagmes da aRniSnaven, rom rogorc Cans, saagento specialuri jgufebis interesebs icavs, TviTmfrinavebis damkvidrebuli mwarmoeblebisa da pilotebis kavSirebis CaTvliT. FAA-m Tavis politikaze 33 000-ze meti komentari miiRo. `im mosazrebebis wakiTxva, rom saagento manevrirebs, raTa ufleba SeinarCu-

rasakvirvelia, uyvarT mSoblebi, magram mamikos istoriebs vudstokze da dedikos CaZiebebs imaze, Tu rodis Sexvdeba misi Svili vinme karg adamians da daqorwindeba, amerikeli Svilebi gagiJebamde mihyavs. rTuli ekonomikuri periodis gamo, aTaswleulis Taobis bevrma wevrma sakuTari cxovreba droebiT gadado. isini ufro didxans darCnen kolejebSi, vidre amas gegmavdnen. maT daqorwineba da Svilebis gaCena daayovnes im imediT, rom Tu moicdidnen, es yvelaferi xelmisawvdomi gaxdeboda. Tumca isini samudamod ver moicdian: qalebs biologiuri saaTi SeRavaTs ver gauwevs. Tu isini amas axla ar gaakeTeben, mere, albaT, veRarasodes SeZleben. uZravi qonebis biznesi axal binebze aqamde Sekavebuli moTxovnis afeTqebas elodeba, radganac axalgazrdebi, romlebmac ojaxis Seqmna amdeni xniT ga-

nos tyviebisa da beisbolis burTebis frenazec, macofebs~, – ambobs federaluri aviaciis administraciis spikeri les dori. amis miuxedavad, misma uwyebam pirovneba 10 000 dolariT daajarima virjiniis universitetis kampusis Tavze sapromouSeno videos gadaRebis dros patara stiroluri `penoplastiT~ damzadebuli upiloto aparatis gaSvebis gamo. maisSi mosamarTlem jarima gaauqma da aRniSna, rom igi `sasacilo~ mizeziT iyo gamowerili. federaluri aviaciis administraciam gadawyvetileba dauyovnebliv gaasaCivra. `yvelaferi es imaze metyvelebs, rom FAA-is momavali wesebi amerikas im masStabis ekonomikur sargebels ver moutans, rac ramdenime qveynisTvis ukve moaqvs~, – acxadebs Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel-is warmomadgeneli brendan Sulmani. agvistoSi am niu-iorkulma saadvokato firmam regulaciebis sferoSi uflebamosilebis gadaWarbebis gamo, FAA-s winaaRmdeg sami saqme wamoiwyo. situacia iqiT midis, rom FAA-m SesaZloa upiloto safreni aparatebis mxolod ori licenzirebuli operatoris mier marTva moiTxovos, romelTac samedicino cnobac eqnebaT da mas TvalTaxedvis arealidan ar moiSoreben. es yvelaferi Zviri dajdeba da savaraudod, frenebi foTlovani xis garSemoc ki aikrZaleba. 2015 wlis Semodgomamde, es sakiTxi Tavad upiloto safreni aparatebisgan gansxvavebiT, haerSi gamokidebuli darCeba. n benjamin sazarlendi: Tavisufali korespondenti, The Economist

dades, sabolood gadawyveten, rom ukve dro movida. `budis~ datovebis ramdenime welze gadasanawilebeli procesi SesaZloa bevrad mokle xanSi Caetios. `budidan gafrenilebis~ nawili Seyvarebuls Seusaxldeba; sxvebi oficialurad daqorwindebian. nebismier SemTxvevaSi, isini Tqvens divans moSordebian da nervebs aRar mogiSlian. vai, rom evropaSi mSoblebi aseTi iRblianebi ver iqnebian – 18-dan 30-wlamde evropelTa TiTqmis naxevari kvlavac mSoblebTan cxovrobs, zogierT qveyanaSi axalgazrdebs Soris katastrofulad maRali umuSevrobis gamo. italiaSi axalgazrdebis oTxi-mexuTedi mSoblebis saxlSi cxovrobs. bevr maTgans-italiels moswons, roca dediko umzadebs saWmels da oTaxs ulagebs, magram isini ver arwmuneben meuRleebs, rom igive movaleobebi Seasrulon. ra sasaciloa. n

SeerTebuli Statebi

msoflio 2015

bruni ukan

ifiqrebdiT, rom baraq obama sagareo politikaze orientirebuli prezidenti gaxdeboda? es is araa, ris gamo igi airCies, magram krizisma sazRvargareT da Cixma qveynis SigniT obama aiZula sagareo politikaze gadaetana fokusireba – Sereuli SedegebiT. es 2015 welsac gagrZeldeba. ruseTi ukrainis `moxrCobas~ ganagrZobs. ìslamuri saxelmwifo~ (IS) poziciebs gaimyarebs. marTalia ise Cans, TiTqos am mzardma safrTxeebma NATO axali mizniT unda gamoacocxlos, magram sinamdvileSi isini mis danawevrebulobas gamoavlenen da daaCqareben. SesaZloa jer `radarze~ ar Cans, magram 2015 wels transatlantikuri urTierTobis èrozia~ moxdeba. amerikuli liderobis xarvezebi da evropel partniorebTan mzardi daZabuloba yvelaze naTlad ruseTTan damokidebulebaSi gamoCndeba. grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi, vladimir putinis ukrainuli politika misi qveynis ekonomikas Zirs gamouTxris da evropelebs ubiZgebs rusul energoresursebs gadaeCvion. Tumca, 2015 wels baton obamas mier ruseTze damatebiTi zemoqmedebis pirobebSi, aSS-s evropeli mokavSireebis mxardaWera Semoeleva da bevri ram iqneba dasakargi. NATO-s zogierTi wevri Relavs, rom aSS-is yuradReba Semdeg cxel wertilze gadava da evropelebs `CxubisTav~ mezobels Seatovebs. ìslamuri saxelmwifosTvis~ pasuxis gacema cxare brZolaa. amerikuli koalicia didia, rac mas gamZleobas ki aniWebs, magram partniorobas moqnilobas ukargavs, xolo progress daqucmacebuls xdis. IS-is winaaRmdeg sahaero kampania metwilad sunituri iyo da dartymebis gansaxorcieleblad yures qveynebTan mimdinareobda TanamSromloba. xmeleTze grZelvadiani warmatebisTvis nebismieri Sedegiani moqmedeba Siitebis Tanxmobas moiTxovs – rac seqtarianuli daZabulobis zrdasTan erTad, ufro garTuldeba. naxeT, 2015 wels aSS kvlav Zveli avtoritari mokavSireebisken rogor miiCoCebs da àrabuli gazafxulebis~ moZraoba sanagveze darCeba. maSin, roca msoflio istoriaSi saukeTesod dafinansebuli teroristuli jgufebi eraysa da siriaSi myarad inarCuneben poziciebs, koalicia daqucmacdeba. madloba RmerTs, azia ufro megobrulia. samxreT da aRmosavleT CineTis zRvaSi afeTqebebis miuxedavad, aziis geopolitika metad agresiuli iqneba, vidre gavarvarebuli konfliqti. aziis sam Zlevamosil qveyanaSi Zlieri liderebi (Sinzo abe iaponiaSi, si zinpingi CineTSi da narendra modi – indoeTSi) mastabilizebeli Zalebi iqnebian. samivem kariera monumentur Sida reformebze aago, rac maT aiZulebs, rom fokusi Sin SeinarCunon da konfliqtebis mimarT yuradReba minimumamde daiyvanon. safrTxe mxolod im SemTxvevaSi gaizrdeba, Tu reformebis mxriv saqme cudad wava an aSS CineTTan urTierTobisas Secdomebs dauSvebs. win diplomatiurad danaRmuli velia. dapirispirebebi aSS-sa da baton putins Soris Ci-

neTs ruseTisken ubiZgebs. orma qveyanam gazis Sesyidvaze 30-wliani, 400 miliard dolarad Sefasebuli SeTanxmeba daasrula mas Semdeg, rac ruseTma dasavleTTan daZabulobis gamo fasi daswia. saqme mxolod tranzaqcia ar aris – CineTi ruseTTan ufro axlo urTierTobas ganixilavs, rogorc Tavdacvis saSualebas aSSsTan potenciuri dapirispirebis SemTxvevaSi. si Zinpingma sakmaris progress miaRwia Tavisi antikorufciuli dRis wesrigiT da ekonomikuri reformebiT, raTa zrdiT dainteresebuli gavleniani Cinelebis winaaRmdegoba daeZlia. meti warmateba met SuRls gamoiwvevs – Tu baton sis dRis wesrigi seriozul problemaSi gaexveva, CineTis saqcielTan dakavSirebiT yvelaferi Tavdayira dadgeba – qveyana SesaZloa ucxoeTs misdges, raTa qveynis SigniT mxardaWera gainaRdos. aSS da misi mokavSireebi `gantevebis vacebi~ martivad gaxdebian, Tu pekini ucxouri biznesebis dasjas moindomebs an areulobaSi ucxoel agentebs daadanaSaulebs (rogorc es honkongSi moxda). momavalSi, ruseT-CineTis aliansi savaraudod ufro formalizebul xasiaTs miiRebs, rac aSS-is sagareo politikis interesebs Zirs gamouTxris. germania da CineTi ekonomikur partniorobas aRrmaveben; aSS-sa da evropas Soris urTierTobaSi bzaris gaCenam SesaZloa berlins pekinisken ubiZgos. 2015 wels aSS-s aqtiuri kontaqti unda hqondes CineTTan, raTa am mimarTulebiT nabijebi aicilos.

`miuxedavad imisa, rom sxvagan yvelgan problemebia, amerikasa da azias Sansi miecema~, – miiCnevs Eurasia Group-is prezidenti ian bremeri

moTminebis fiala

metic – aziasTan daaxloeba vaSingtonisTvis albaT, sagareo politikis frontze iSviaTi upiratesoba aRmoCndeba. transwynari okeanis partnioroba (TPP), romelmac globaluri mSpis 40%-is mflobeli 12 qveyana SesaZloa Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebiT gaaerTianos, is didi strategiuli monapovaria, romelsac aSS 2015 wels finiSis xazamde warmatebiT miitans. CineTis ambiciebis gamo mzardi mRelvarebis fonze, wynari okeanis rkalze es ufro mWidro aliansebs Seqmnida. xelSekruleba did savaWro sargebels moitans, da baton abes qveynis SigniT ekonomikuri reformebis gamarTlebis pirobas Seqmnis. maS, sadaa dabrkoleba? iaponiasa da aSS-s Soris gaCenilma dabrkolebam progresi Seaferxa: iaponia Tavisi fermerebis dacvisas arafers daTmobs, arc aSS – Tavisi saavtomobilo industriis dacvisas. Tumca yuradRebis sxva Temebze gadataniT, aSS-is Sualeduri arCevnebi Tu ar Seqmnis problemas, erTsulovanma Zalisxmevam transatlantikuri partnioroba SesaZloa miznamde miiyvanos. ironia isaa, rom sxva „Civilebis“ fonze, batoni obama araerTxel gaxda kritikis obieqti aziisken `mibrunebis~ gegmaze uaris Tqmis gamo. arada, azia swored is regionia, sadac mas sagareo politikis sferoSi yvelaze didi warmatebebi aqvs. aqtiuri yuradRebis saSualebiT, aSS-s 2015 wels aq ufro metis miRweva SeuZlia. n

SesaZloa jer `radarze~ ar Cans, magram 2015 wels transatlantikuri urTierTobis `erozia~ moxdeba

amerika

msoflio 2015

amerika

amave seqciaSi: Pemex konkurencias awydeba 49 kanadis axali trudo 50

mxolod SesaZlebelia… 50 miSel baCeleti: inkluziuri politika 51

`nabaxusevi~ maikl reidi, lima

laTinuri amerika nedleulis bumis Semdeg

2015 mokled samxreT amerikis yvelaze didi akvariumi – Acquario Ceará, fortalezaSi, braziliaSi gaixsneba

maikl reidi: `belos~ mimomxilveli, The Economist

Seamciros. Tu opozicia gaerTianda, reJims mouwevs gadawyvetileba miiRos: saparlamento kontrolis dakargva Tu saarCevno manipulaciebi. ivnisSi, meqsikis Sualedur arCevnebSi, prezident enriko penia nietos liderobiT, mmarTveli instituciur-revoluciuri partia (PRI) kongresis kontrolis SenarCunebas Seecdeba. amis xelSemwyobi faqtori ekonomikis, saxelmwifo da energetikaSi kerZo investiciebis zrda iqneba (ixileT Semdegi istoria). Tumca, es baton penias popularobas bevrs verafers moutans; gamarjvebis mizezi ufro memarcxene da memarjvene opoziciuri partiebis sisuste iqneba. ukanaskneli wlebis ganmavlobaSi, centralur amerikaSi memarcxene xelisuflebisken mcire cvlileba SesamCnevia. es gagrZeldeba gvatemalaSi, yofili generlis – oto peres molinas oTxwliani mmarTvelobis Semdeg, seqtemberSi dagegmil arCevnebSi. kolumbiis xelisuflebasa da FARC-is partizanebs Soris samSvidobo SeTanxmeba 2015 wlis

eTili iyos Tqveni mobrZaneba laTinuri amerikis axal normaSi. amJamad es regioni nedleulis didi bumiT Seqmnili martivi cxovrebis mZime muSaobis Sedegad, produqtiulobis zrdiT Canacvlebas cdilobs. Sedegi saxezea: 2015 wels regionis ekonomikuri zrda 3%-s miaRwevs, 2014 wlis daaxloebiT, 1.5%-is Semdeg. yvelaze kargi Sedegi meqsikisganaa mosalodneli – daaxloebiT, 4%mde ekonomikuri zrda. brazilias vadagadacilebul fiskalur regulaciasTan gamklaveba mouwevs. Tumca, dilma rusefs, romelic dasustebul xelisuflebas daZabuli arCevnebis Sedegad meored uZRvis, gauWirdeba ekonomikuri zrdisa da investorebis ndobis dabruneba. 2014 wlis oqtombris saprezidento arCevnebis gamocdilebam qalbaton rusefisTvis cxadyo, rom neli zrda da momatebuli saSualo klasis rRveva politikur klimats cvlis. memarcxeneebis mravalwliani dominantobis Semdeg, samxreT amerikis politika isev centrisken gadanacvlebas iwyebs. magram araTanabrad – urugvais memarcxeneebi, 2014 wlis noemberSi, kidev erTi gamarjvebisTvis mzad iyvnen. msgavsi tendencia mosalodnelia 2015 wlis samxreT amerikis politikuri yuradRebis centrSi – argentinasa da SesaZloa venesuelaSic. oqtombris saprezidento arCevnebSi argentina ufro zomier da pragmatul xelisuflebas airCevs, riTac kristina fernandes de kirxneris mravalwlian populist-nacionalistur mmarTvelobas daasrulebs. arCevnebi sammxrivi rbola iqneba or peronist – serxio masas, daniel skiolisa da buenos airesis konservator mers – mauricio makris Soris. qalbatoni fernandesi Tavis kandidaturasac waradgens (savaraudod, florencio randocis – Sinagan saqmeTa ministrs), Tumca mosalodnelia, rom is SeTanxmebas gaaformebs erT-erT mowinave kandidatTan, Zalauflebis nawilis SenarCunebis mizniT. vinc unda gaimarjvos, mas mouwevs niu-iorkSi ganlagebul hej fondebTan xangrZlivi davis mogvareba argentinis valebTan dakavSirebiT da subsidiebis Semcirebisa da importis kontrolis moxsna. venesuelas saparlamento arCevnebi seqtemberSi ori xelisuflebis jibrs ganaaxlebs. erTi mxriv, asparezze xelisuflebaSi myofi, kubis mxardarWeriT Camoyalibebuli, ZiriTadad militaristuli reJimia, meore ki misi opozicia. amasTanave, opozicia gayofilia zomier, prezidentobis yofil kandidats – enrike kaprilessa da radikalebs Soris. es ukanaskneli 2014 wlis dasawyisSi quCis protestebis iniciatorTa jgufia. nikolas maduros arapopularulma xelisuflebam SesaZloa CITGO-s, misi didi navTobis gadamamuSaveblisa da distributoris amerikaSi gayidviT fulis Sovna scados, raTa stagnaciiTa da deficitiT gamowveuli sayovelTao ukmayofileba

pirveli raundi iwyeba henri triqsi, mexiko

pirvelad istoriaSi, meqsikur sanavTobo industriaSi Pemex-s konkurenti eyoleba

amerika

msoflio 2015

ba arasodes miuRia. ar ubrZolia sxva qveynebSi navTobisa da gazis sawarmoeblad. miuxedavad imisa, rom gaumjobesebis mizniT, kompaniaSi cvlilebebi tardeba, kontroldeba maregulirebeli organos mier, ahyavs direqtorTa axali sabWo, Pemex-s axal garemosTan Widili gauWirdeba. arsebobs eWvi, rom sawyis tenderebSi Pemex-s upiratesoba eqneba. ukve 2014 wlis agvistoSi, e.w. nulovan raundSi, mas meqsikis yvela damtkicebuli da savaraudo maragis 83% gadaeca. pirvel raundSi,

ebismieri normaluri standartiT, Pemex advilad Sesayvarebeli kompania ar aris. igi 77 wlis ganmavlobaSi meqsikuri navTobis monopolisti iyo. xSirad hqonda katastrofuli ubeduri SemTxvevebi. yofilma navTobis gadamamuSavebelma qarxanam mexiko smogis buded aqcia. misi sabWos liderebi mefeebiviT cxovroben da saqmesac kargad ver asruleben – miuxedavad imisa, rom saxelmwifos gadasaxadebidan miRebuli Semosavlis mesameds awvdian. 2004 wlis pikis Semdeg, misi produqcia TiTqmis samjer Semcirda. meqsikam, navTobis rezervebiT, msoflios mexuTe adgilidan meTvrameteze gadainacvla. amis miuxedavad, bevr meqsikels is mainc uyvars, rogorc iaponelebs uyvarT TavianTi brinji da amerikelebs – holivudi. 1938 wels, Pemex-is dafuZnebidan moyolebuli, meqsikam Tavisi navTobis industria xelSi Caigdo da erovnuli siamayis simbolod aqcia. maSinac ki, rodesac meqsikis dRevandelma prezidentma – enriko penia nietom, Tavdapirveli eqspropriaciis Semdeg, konstituciaSi pirvelad Seitana cvlileba da neba darTo meqsikur navTobSi ucxour investiciebs, yvela gziT cdilobda eris darwmunebas, rom Pemex-is privatizeba ar moxdeboda. am reformebis Sedegad, 2015 wels, pirvelad Pemex-is istoriaSi, meqsikur navTobmompovebels bazarze saerTaSoriso navTobkompaniebi Seejibrebian. es radikaluri cvlileba iqneba. sxva saxelmwifo navTobkompaniebisgan gansxvavebiT, Pemex-s tenderebSi monawileo- gaRimebisTvis meti mizezi iqneba

laTinuri amerikis yvelaze mniSvnelovani politikuri movlena iqneba. es molaparakeba wertils dausvams naxevarsaukunovan SeiaraRebul konfliqts, romelic am regionSi mosaxleobis sididiT mesame qveyanas bolos uRebda. amasTanave, mas msgavsi Tanxmoba ELN-s SedarebiT patara partizanul jgufTanac moyveba (Tumca, SesaZloa es 2016 wlamde gadaidos). mSvidobis referendumi momavali wlis meore naxevarSi Catardeba.

kastro yuradRebis centrSi CrdiloeT da samxreT amerikis qveynebis meSvide samitze, romelic panamaSi momavali wlis aprilSi Catardeba, kubis sakiTxi umTavresi iqneba. laTinuri amerika moiTxovda kubis prezidentis – raul kastros mowvevas. wina wlebSi kuba garicxuli iyo am samitidan, vinaidan is demokratiuli qveyana ar aris. es situacia baraq obamas dilemis winaSe ayenebs. raki mas StatebSi meti arCevnebi aRar elis, prezidentma SesaZloa gadawyvitos daswreba da baton kastrosTan

romelic 2015 wlis TebervalSi daiwyeba da amave wlis seqtemberSi dasruldeba, saxelmwifo 169 blokze, 28 500 kvadratuli kilometris (11 000 kvadratuli milis) teritoriaze tenders gamoacxadebs. meqsikis yureSi, aSS-is wylebis mimdebare teritorias ukve didi xania burRaven iseTi kompaniebi, rogorebicaa Shell da Chevron. male am da sxva msgavs ucxour Tu kerZo kompaniebs Pemex-Tan TanamSromloba mouwevT. bevr kompanias moundeba meqsikur navTobmompovebelTan gaerTianeba, Tumca samwuxaro iqneba, Tu `maspinZlebs~ upiratesoba eqnebaT. meqsikis energetikuli reformis namdvili gamocda maSin dadgeba, rodesac navTobis msoflio giganti kompaniebi meqsikaSi burRvas Pemex-is gareSe daiwyeben. es gazrdis xelisuflebis Sansebs, rom 2018 wlamde miaRwios gamiznul 50 miliarddolarian kerZo investicias energetikaSi.

fasis sxvaoba dguSTan memarcxene partiebis mcdeloba, rom referendumiT SeCerdes energetikis reforma, albaT, uSedego iqneba. es 2015 wlis ivlisSi, kongresis Sualeduri arCevnebis dros sabolood gairkveva. saxalxo gamokiTxvebi ukve aCveneben, rom mosaxleoba reformebs egueba da aseve im azrs, rom prezidenti penia da instituciur-revoluciuri partia samuSaos warmatebiT wauZRvebian. Tu navTobis fasebis dacema Sewydeba, gaZlierebuli ekonomikuri mdgomareoba sazogadoebas kidev ufro daarwmunebs, rom reformebi swori mimarTulebiT midis. rac ufro mniSvnelovania, 2015 wels, Pemex Tavis avtogasamarT sadgurebs pirvelad miscems saSualebas, rom erTmaneTs fasebiT Seejibron. meqsikelTa umetesobisTvis, zustad es iqneba cvlilebis yvelaze mkafio maniSnebeli. n henri triqsi: mexikos biuros xelmZRvaneli, The Economist

saubari. ufro didi albaTobiT ki, obama samitze viceprezident jo baidens miavlens. 2015-2016 wlebis gaeros uSiSroebis sabWoSi, laTinuri amerikis oridan erT-erT wevrad venesuelas arCeva, savaraudod, ufro met daZabulobas gamoiwvevs regionSi. amis msgavsad, maisSi amerikuli qveynebis organizaciis generaluri mdivnis xose migel isulsas postidan wasvlis Semdeg, misi memkvidris SerCevasTan dakavSirebul debatebze umTavresi Tema is iqneba, Tu ra politika unda gatardes laTinuri amerikis calkeuli qveynebis memarcxene-avtokratiuli reJimebis liderebTan mimarTebaSi. es urugvais sagareo saqmeTa ministr lui almogrosa da gvatemalas yofil viceprezidents – eduardo stains erTmaneTTan daapirispirebs. amerikuli qveynebis organizaciis politikuri relevanturobis aRdgena kidev ufro gaZneldeba Sida politikuri dapirispirebis Sedegad, politikuri klimatis cvlilebis gamo. n

2015 mokled Amazon Tall Tower Observatory – samxreT amerikis umaRlesi Senoba, iwyebs amazonis junglebSi saTburis airebisa da klimatis Sesaxeb monacemTa Segrovebas

amerika

zustad droze madelain drohani, otava

kanadas, albaT, kidev erTi trudo gauZRveba

madelain druhani: korespondenti, kanada, The Economist

anadis mmarTvel konservatorebs araferi ise ar aRizianebT, rogorc imis gagoneba, TiTqos liberaluri mesame mxare kanadis namdvili mmarTveli partiaa. marTalia, gasul saukuneSi saxelmwifo Tanamdebobebis umetesi nawili liberalebs ekavaT, magram konservatorebi 2006 wlis dasawyisidan meTauroben. am drois ganmavlobaSi ki premier-ministri stiven harperi mTeli mondomebiT cdilobs, daarwmunos kanada, rom gulis siRrmeSi is konservatoria da ara liberali. misi meTodebi iyo rogorc daxvewili (rogoricaa saxelmwifo vebgverdis fonis feris liberaluri wiTlidan konservatorul lurjad Secvla), aseve uxeSi: kanadis samxedro saqmianobis gasajaroeba da amavdroulad liberaluri samSvidobo tradiciebis arasaTanadod warmoCena, mowinave konservatori premier-ministrebis miRwevebis gazviadeba, xolo liberali liderebis ki – ugulebelyofa. 2015 wlis oqtomberSi dagegmili generaluri arCevnebi konservatorebis gamocda iqneba: SeZlo Tu ara batonma harperma da misma partiam qveynis azrovnebis Secvla? premier-ministri, savaraudod, imedgacruebuli darCeba. rogorc Cans, konservatorebis yvelaze didi imedi mmarTvel umciresobaSi darCena iqneba (maT aseTi umciresobebi 2006 da 2008 wlebSi, xolo umravlesoba 2011-Si moipoves). didi albaTobiT, jastin trudos (suraTze) liderobiT, liberalebi Zalauflebas daibruneben. gamokiTxva aCvenebs, rom konservatorebis mier TavianTi brendis popularizaciis mcdelobebis miuxedavad, kanada mainc ufro memarcxene xelisuflebisken miiwevs. amis dasturia gasuli wlis ivnisSi, ontarios provinciaSi Catarebuli arCevnebis moulodneli Sedegebi. masSi gamarjveba liberalurma partiam moipova. aTwliani Zalauflebis bolos agorebuli skandalis Semdeg, partia wagebisTvis mzad iyo. ontarios mosaxleobas unda mieRo gadawyvetileba: memarcxene liberalebi, romelTa gegma iTvaliswinebda axal danaxarjebs, Tu progresuli konservatorebi, romlebic SedarebiT mcire mTavrobisa da dabali gadasaxadebis pirobas iZleoda, da isini,

msoflio 2015 vinc federaluri konservatorebis bevr mosazrebas iziareben. saboloo jamSi, ontarioelebis umetesobam liberalebis kandidats – ketlin ueins mianiWa upiratesoba. amasTanave sagulisxmoa, rom is kanadis pirveli, Riad homoseqsuali politikuri lideria. `gamarjveba erT provinciaSi, Tundac iq 36-milioniani qveynis mesamedi cxovrobdes, liberalTa federalur warmatebas ar niSnavs. am provinciaSi konservatorTa mxardamWerebis raodenoba izrdeboda maTi mandatis moqmedebis pirvel etapze, sanam konservatori senatorebis korufciuli da eTikuri skandalebi gaSuqdeboda~, – ambobs profesori da sazogadoebrivi azris mkvlevari andre turkoti. `Tu konservatorebis potencials im amomrCevlebis raodenobiT gavzomavT, vinc savaraudod am partias xmas miscems, maSin maTi Zala imave donezea, rogorzec 2005 wels iyo~, – ambobs politikuri mecnieri tom flanagani, romelic aseve harperis wina kampaniebze muSaobda. ekonomika, romelic odesRac xelisuflebis Zlier mxared miiCneoda, axla `modunebulia~. rogorc amas kanadis analitikuri biznesinstituti Conference Board of Canada irwmuneba, momaval wels 2.3%iani zrdaa mosalodneli. liberalebs, romlebsac 2008 da 2011 wlebSi araefeqtiani liderebi hyavdaT, dRes axali, popularuli lideri uZRvis – baton trudos saxiT. misi mama – aw gardacvlili pier trudo, 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi kanadis premier-ministri iyo. `me ar var jastin trudos mxardamWeri~, – ambobs batoni flanagani, – `magram ver uarvyof, rom is liberalebs stimuls aZlevs. maTi kampaniebi ufro met fuls Souloben da es xalxis masebs izidavs~. konservatorebs demografiac ar wyalobT. `kanadeli axalgazrdebi arian yvelaze liberaluri, progresuli da multikulturuli Taoba Cvens istoriaSi~, – ambobs maikl adamsi, socialuri komentatori da kvleviTi kompania Environics-is xelmZRvaneli qveynis yvelaze axalgazrda jgufze. liberalebi, da tomas mulkairis winamZRolobiT axali memarcxene demokratebi, muSaoben, rom saxalxod cnobili – pasiur amomrCevelTa dajgufeba gadmoibiron.

2016 wlis cduneba situacia konservatorebisTvis bolomde uimedo ar gaxlavT. ekonomikuri mdgomareoba SesaZloa gamoswordes 2015 wels. biujetis deficitis mosalodneli gaqrobiT, savaraudod, samTavrobo xarjebis Semdgom Semcirebaze meti amomrCevlis mxardaWeris saSualeba gaCndeba. konservatorebis Zlierma mxarem – usafrTxoebam da terorizmTan brZolam, SesaZloa prioritetebis siaSi mowinave pozicia moipovos. amis mizezi ki otavaSi momxdari SeiaraRebuli Setakebaa. jer kidev aris Sansi, rom harperi droiT isargeblebs. 2008 wels man ugulebelyo mis mierve dawerili gaumarTavi kanonebi, romlebic arCevnebs 4-wlian intervalebad yofda da amis gameoreba mas SeuZlia. konstituciis Tanaxmad, arCevnebi jer kidev xuT weliwadSi erTxel tardeba – anu am SemTxvevaSi, 2016 wlis maisSi. politikuri klimati am periodisTvis, albaT, sakmaod gansxvavebuli iqneba. n mxolod SesaZlebelia… maqsimo kirxnerma – argentinis axlandeli da yofili prezidentis Svilma, arCevnebSi gamarjvebiT pirveli sajaro Tanamdeboba daikavos. amerikis qveynebis samitze, panamaSi, baraq obama da raul kastro sxdebian da molaparakebebs marTaven.

amerika

msoflio 2015

inkluziuri politika

015 wels msoflio gadamwyvet moments miaRwevs. ukve 2000 wels vicodiT, rom 189 saxelmwifo, Semdegi 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi, `aTaswleulis ganviTarebis 8 miznis~ farglebSi, progresis miRwevas Seecdeboda. am sakiTxebis umetesobaSi mniSvnelovani progresi SeimCneva. yvelaze didi cvlilebebi SesamCnevia siRaribisa da SimSilis sferoebSi: mizani – ukiduresi gaWirvebis 50%-iT Semcireba, 2010 wels ganxorcielda. miuxedavad amisa, msoflioSi yoveli merve adamiani jer kidev SimSilobs, xolo 1.2 miliardi siRatakeSi cxovrobs. ori didi mizani jer kidev misaRwevia: msoflioSi dawyebiTi ganaTlebisa da ekologiuri mdgradobis uzrunvelyofa. amitom, 2015 weli Sereuli SegrZnebebiT daiwyeba: bedniereba, rom progresi miRweulia miznebis umetesobaSi, da danarCeni miznebis realizaciis saWiroebis grZnoba. swored amitomaa post-2015 wlis ganviTarebis gegma aseTi mniSvnelovani – gansakuTrebiT, roca gaWirvebis grZeli periodis Semdeg, amdeni qveyana sabolood normalur ekonomikur mdgomareobas ubrundeba. daskvnebi axali ekonomikuri ciklisTvis, gamocdilebis xarjze unda gakeTdes. maT Soris yvelaze mniSvnelovani ki isaa, rom progresis garantias an ki ekonomikur stabilurobas mxolod bazari ver mogvcems, xolo mosaxleobis keTildReobas msoflio kidev ufro naklebad varaudobs. mxolod maRali erToblivi Sida produqti erT adamianze ar ganapirobebs ganviTarebas. namdvili progresi mdgrad zrdas, inkluziurobas, socialur simWidroves, marTvis unarianobas da demokratiis zRvrebis zrdas gulisxmobs. is mravalferovnebas, gamWvirvalobasa da pasuxismgeblobas moicavs. is moiTxovs Tavisuflebas, aseve socialur samarTals. is gaigivebulia garemos dacvasTan da adamianis uflebebis pativiscemasTan. mas sWirdeba bazari, romelic yvavis produqtiuli inovaciebis wyalobiT da ara spekulaciebze dayrdnobiT. momavali weli qveynebis gamoc `daiqneba~ – ramdenad mzad arian adamianebi am miznebis Sesasruleblad gaisarjon. es sakvanZo weli iqneba, momavalSi kidev ufro didi TanasworobisTvis mzadyofnis dasturi. es gulisxmobs socialur politikas, romelic yvelasTvis Tanabar SesaZleblobas zrdis da yvela mimarTulebiT uTanasworobis winaaRmdeg brZolas ganaaxlebs. es Ciles prioritetia. yvela sxva uTanasworobas Soris, ganaTlebaSi problemas aqvs erT-erTi yvelaze didi, negatiuri Sedegi TiToeuli adamianis cxovrebaSi. 2015 wels, Cile gegmavs reformas, romlis farglebSi yvela socialuri fenis warmomadgeneli miiRebs ufaso, integrirebul da maRali xarisxis ganaTlebas. am mizans pirdapiri efeqti eqneba socialur, adamianisa da politikur ganviTarebaze. magram is aseve saWiroa ekonomikuri

ganviTarebisTvis, radgan is ekonomikuri zrdis strategiis centrSi ayenebs im codnasa da SesaZleblobebs, rac adamianebs aqvT. Cile aseve farTo sakonstitucio debatebs daiwyebs da gazrdili monawileobisa da ukeTesi demokratiis principebs Camoayalibebs.

yvela erTad – „Ciluri“ aqcentiT ufro inkluziuri da mdgradi ganviTarebis valdebuleba mxolod erT qveyanas ver daekisreba. Cven – laTinoamerikelebma es kargad viciT, radgan erTiani ZalebiT vibrZodiT damoukideblobisTvis. ori saukunis ganmavlobaSi, qveynebs Soris TanamSromloba saerTo saWiroebebis dasakmayofileblad, aliansis Seqmnis gziT, erT-erT fundamentur debulebad rCeba. Cveni planetis mdgradoba erT-erTi aseTi sakiTxia. klimatis cvlileba zrdis uTanasworobas rogorc qveynebs Soris, aseve TiToeul qveyanaSi. Cveni movaleobaa iqamde vimoqmedoT, sanam Sedegebi Seuqcevadi gaxdeba. vici, rom gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis klimatis cvlilebis 21-e konferencia parizSi amaze imuSavebs – iseve, rogorc `Cveni okeaneebis konferencia~ CileSi. sqesebs Soris uTanasworobis daZleva kidev erTi saerTo gamowvevaa. uTanasworobis, diskriminaciisa da qalebze Zaladobis winaaRmdeg brZola Cemi piradi mizania. es Cemi xelisuflebis dRis wesrigSia da es iyo Cemi misia, rodesac gaerTianebuli erebis qalTa organizaciis direqtori viyavi. vici, rom win grZeli gza gvelis. 2015 wels SegviZlia momdevno nabijebi davgegmoT – rogorc mexuTe `msoflio konferenciaze qalTa Sesaxeb~, romelic yatarSi Catardeba, aseve gaerTianebuli erebis qalTa organizaciis Sexvedraze, romelic CileSi Sedgeba. 2015 wels, msoflio ganagrZobs demokratiis gaZlierebisTvis brZolas. es gulisxmobs ganaxlebuli sistemis Camoyalibebas da gadanacvlebas iseTi demokratiisken, romelSic mxolod xmaTa raodenoba ar aris gadamwyveti. aseve, moqalaqeTa CarTulobisTvis da ufro aqtiuri monawileobisTvis axali sistema gaumjobesebul SesaZleblobas moiTxovs. saWiroa imgvari meqanizmi, romlis safuZvelSi, sxva mravali qveynis msgavsad, aqtiuri socialuri moZraoba dgas. aucilebelia iseTi demokratia, romelic moiTxovs mosaxleobis informirebulobasa da samoqalaqo moRvaweobaSi CarTulobas. vici, am yvelaferSi laTinuri amerika Tavs gamoiCens – TiToeuli qveyana Tavisi gansxvavebuli aqcentiT. miznis misaRwevad yvela sakuTar gamocdilebasa da SesaZleblobebs gamoiyenebs. CvenTvis ukve cxadia Ciles prioriteti 2015 wels: ukeTesi ganaTlebis, ufro meti monawileobis, gaumjobesebuli infrastruqturis, gazrdili investiciebisa da inovaciebis wyalobiT, winsvla Tanaswori sazogadoebisken. n

rogorc Ciles prezidenti – miSel baCele ambobs, 2015 wels ganviTarebas ufro globaluri midgoma dasWirdeba

progresis garanti an ekonomikuri stabilurobis uzrunvelmyofeli, mxolod bazari ver iqneba, xolo mosaxleobis keTildReobas msoflio kidev ufro naklebad varaudobs

msoflio 2015

amave seqciaSi: birmis arCevani 54 modi - saqmis kaci 55 mxolod SesaZlebelia… 55

azia

imzireba 60 rifis dacva 60 joko vidodo: reformis gagrZeleba 61

indoeTis universitetebi 56 aseanis pirmSo 57 gafrTxileba abenomikas 58avstralia sazRvargareT

indoneziis axali starti jon fesmani, jakarta

pragmatul prezidents adgilobrivze metad, nacionalur doneze ufro gauWirdeba saqmis gakeTeba

om gaviazroT, Tu rogor ucnaurad SemoiWra qveynis politikaSi indoneziis axalarCeuli prezidenti joko vidodo (cnobilia rogorc `jokovi~), misi warsuli oTxi winamorbedisas unda SevadaroT. 31-wliani mmarTvelobis Semdeg, roca suharto gadadga, igi Secvala vice-prezidentma b.j. habibiem, romelmac mTavrobaSi ori aTwleuli gaatara. baton habibies Semdeg iyo abduharam vahidi, romelic suhartos mmarTvelobis dros misi papis mier dafuZnebul udides muslimur organizacias marTavda. Semdeg movida suhartos winamorbedi prezidentis qaliSvili megavati sukarnoputri – yofili kanonmdebeli da partiis Tavmjdomare; igi aseve kanonmdebelma da suhartos armiis generalma susilo bambang iuduoionom Secvala. maTgan gansxvavebiT, jokovis arc SeiaraRebul ZalebSi umsaxuria da arc sakanonmdeblo sferoSi. igi xe-tyis Semgroveblis oTx SvilTagan erT-erTia 40 da wyaldidobebis zonaSi, mdinaris piras mdebare qoxSi gaizarda. man universiteti daamTavra metyevis xarisxiT da Semdeg avejis eqsportis warmatebuli biznesi wamoiwyo, vidre jer mSobliuri qalaqis – solos meri, Semdeg ki jakartis gubernatori gaxdeboda. Tanamdebobaze man kargi reputacia Seiqmna sufTa marTvisa da xSiri blusukanis (dasaxlebebSi daugegmavi vizitebi minimaluri raodenobis Tanmxlebi pirebiT, roca is esaubreboda, – da indonezieli politikosebisTvis kidev ufro uCveulod, aSkarad usmenda – Tavis amomrCevels) gamo. man qalaqSi gadasaxadebis akrefa gaaumjobesa, samTavrobo dawesebulebebSi (misi sabiujeto, saxelfaso da sajaro Sexvedrebis CaTvliT) internetmomsaxureba danerga da quCis movaWreebisTvis bazari aago, raTa moZraobisTvis xeli aRar SeeSalaT. jakovis mokrZalebulma biografiam moxibla indonezieli amomrCeveli da mis konkurent prabovo subiantoze (suhartos siZe da indoneziis specialuri Zalebis yofili meTauri) eqvsprocentiani upiratesobiT gamarjveba moapovebina. misi inauguracia 20 oqtombers aRiniSna, rogorc Zalauflebis gadacemis pirveli SemTxveva indoneziis erTi pirdapir arCeuli prezidentisgan meore pirdapir arCeuli prezidentisTvis. magram is Tvisebebi, rac kandidat jokovis warmatebaSi daexmara, aseve kargad gamoadgeba Tu ara mas, rogorc prezidents, jer kidev ucnobia. kandidat jokovis gamarjvebaSi damsaxurebis meti wili mis mier amomrCevlis imaSi darwmunebaa, rom igi tipuri indonezieli politikosi ar iyo, magram kanonebis misaRebad, prezident jokovis dasWirdeba zustad im tipur indoneziel politikosebTan erTad imuSaos. igi partiulobas ver daeyrdnoba: misi ko-

wamyvani feri nedleuli da farTo moxmarebis sagnebis $ wili indoneziis mTlian eqsportSi

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wyaro: Thomson Reuters

aliciis wevrebs indoneziis parlamentSi adgilebis umciresoba ukaviaT, da ufro mozrdilma blokma, romelSic prabovos momxreebi arian gaerTianebulni, naTlad mianiSnes, rom isini procedurul manevrirebas mimarTaven, raTa jokovi fexis yovel nabijze dablokon. Tavisive, indoneziis demokratiul partiaSic ki, SedarebiTi gamoucdeloba jokovis arasaxarbielo mdgomareobaSi agdebs partiis Tavmjdomare qalbaton megavatisTanac da Tavis viceprezident iusuf kalasTanac, romelic baton vahidis dros kanonmdeblad da ministrad, xolo baton iudhoinos pirveli vadis dros vice-prezidentad msaxurobda. jokovis momxreebi aRniSnaven, rom mas jakartis qalaqis sabWoSic umciresoba hyavda, magram mainc moaxerxa, rom rogorc gubernators, STambeWdavi Sedegi eCvenebina. maT imedi unda hqondeT, rom igi prezidentis rangSic igive simamaces gamoiCens. jokovis ambiciuri gegmebi aqvs universaluri jandacvisa da ganaTlebis sferoSi, magram SeiZleba ver SeZlos maTi dafinanseba, Tuki qveynis uzarmazar sawvavis subsidirebas ar Sekvecs. es subsidiebi mTliani samTavrobo xarjebis mexuTeds Seadgens. indonezia samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis udidesi qveyanaa mosaxleobisa (256 milioni) da ekonomikis moculobis mixedviT, magram mSp-is zrdam Semcireba

2015 mokled indonezielebi mTa tamboras da 200 wlis win dokumenturi istoriis manZilze udidesi vulkanuri amofrqveviT gamowveul katastrofas ixseneben

jon fesmani: samxreT-aziis biuros ufrosi The Economist

azia

msoflio 2015

Taviseburi arCevani jon fesmani, iangoni

birma arCevnebisTvis emzadeba

ugulebelyo. 2008 wels birmas axali konstitucia moaxvies `referendumis~ gziT, romelsac 93%-ma dauWira mxari – 98%iani daswrebis pirobebSi, ciklon `nargizis~ `wyalobiT~ qveynis ganadgurebidan ramdenime dRis Semdeg. ori wlis Tavze NLD-m boikoti gamoucxada axali konstituciis farglebSi Catarebul pirvel postkonstituciur mravalpartiul arCevnebs, ramac xuntis wiaRSi warmoSobil `erTobis solidarobisa da ganviTarebis partias~ (USDP) adgilebis 75%-is mogebis saSualeba misca. 2012 wels NLD-m kursi Secvala, damatebiT arCevnebSi monawileoba miiRo da

015 wlis bolos, jer kidev gamoucxadebel dRes, birmis amomrCeveli xmis misacemad gaemarTeba. orpalatiani parlamentis 664ve adgili, samxedro mosamsaxureebiT Sevsebuli meoTxedis garda, saTuo gaxdeba, iseve rogorc arapirdapir arCeuli prezidentis postic, romelic 2010 wlidan moyolebuli, tein seins ukavia. monawileobis misaRebad 60-ze meti partia daregistrirda. maTi umravlesoba patara da regionulia an eTnikurobas efuZneba. aTwleulis win birmaSi ekonomikuri uZraoba sufevda, qveyana mowyvetili iyo garesamyaros da samxedro xuntis mier imarTeboda. Tumca 2014 wels, `ufrosma generalma~ tan svem gamosca `demokratiis sagzao ruka~ da xuntas kontrolma Sesusteba daiwyo. dRes mSp wliurad 6-7%-iT izrdeba; investorebi erT-erT ukanasknel mosazRvre ekonomikas muStris TvaliT uyureben. qveynis yvelaze cnobili politikuri patimari aung san suu kii parlamentis wevria. maSasadame, 2015 is welia, roca birma qmediTi demokratia gaxdeba? qveynis istoria imedisTvis mwir mizezs tovebs. 1990 wels qalbaton kiis partiam nacionaluri liga demokratiisTvis (NLD) mravalpartiul arCevnebSi advilad moigo, magram xuntam Sedegebi aung san suu kiis yvavilebis Zala

2015 mokled 2014 wels, boliviaSi Sesvlis Semdeg, Kentucky Fried Chicken birmaSi pirvel restorans xsnis

daiwyo – 2010-2012 wlebSi wliuri saSualo 6.3%-dan 5.8%-mde 2013 wels (rac bolo oTxi wlis ganmavlobaSi yvelaze dabalia), da 5.2%-mde 2014 wels, maSin, roca milionobiT axalgazrda indonezieli muSaobis dawyebis asaks uaxlovdeba. CineTSi ufro nelma zrdam da evropaSi SenarCunebulma nelma tempmac Seasusta moTxovna nedleulze, rac indoneziis eqsportis (ix. grafa wina gverdze) metismetad did wils moicavs. jokovis mouwevs ipovos gza, rom ekonomika Sida moxmarebasa da damatebul Rirebulebaze orientirebuli warmoebisken Seatrialos. indoneziis saSineli infrastruqturis gamosasworeblad rame Tu ar gakeTda, es rTuli iqneba. msoflio ekonomikuri forumis kvlevam indoneziis infrastruqtura msoflio reitingSi 82-e adgilze daasaxela – sxva qveynebTan erTad, tailandis, meqsikisa da egviptis Semdeg, da sul odnav win, vidre indoeTi da tajikeTi arian. konteinerebis gadmoclisa da jakartas portis datovebisTvis saWiro dReebis raodenoba 2010 wlis 4.8-dan eqvs dRemde gaizarda 2014 wels. jakartis porti indoneziis saerTaSoriso vaWrobis udides wils uzrunvelyofs. Tumca infrastruqturis gaumjobesebas marjve politikuri manevrireba da kapitaluri danaxarjebi dasWirdeba. suhartos gadadgomis Semdeg, sul male, indoneziam masobrivi decentralizaciis programa daiwyo da Zalaufleba ara provinciebs (separatiz-

45-dan 43 adgili aiRo. qalbatoni suu kii disidentidan parlamentarad iqca da mogvianebiT prezidentobis survili gamoTqva. magram saamisod, imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom parlamentis meoTxedze kontrols armia inarCunebs, NLD-s mouwevs adgilebis TiTqmis ori-mesamedi moigos. es uzarmazari amocanaa dauqucmacebeli opoziciisTvisac ki, rogoric birmas ar hyavs – xmebs patara, eTnikurobaze dafuZnebuli partiebi moigeben. martivi umravlesobis sistemidan proporciul sistemaze sakamaTo gadasvla damangreveli marcxis Sedegs USDP-sTvis kidev ufro Seamcirebda. aseve, arsebobs konstituciiT gamowveuli sirTulec, romelic nebismier pirs, romelsac ucxoeli meuRle an Svilebi hyavs, prezidentobas ukrZalavs. suu kiis ori Svili britanelia, iseve rogorc misi gardacvlili qmari. principSi, NLD misi manqanaa; mis gareSe, is farTo mxardaWera, romelic partias aqvs, swrafad `gaxundeba~. batoni tein seini Tavis gegmebSi moridebuli iyo da rogorc amboben, misi janmrTelobac sustia, ramac mTavari adgili SesaZloa partiul bossa da parlamentis qveda palatis spikers Sve mans gauTavisuflos. armiis oficeri min aung hlaingic, savaraudod `xelTaTmans isvris ringze~. birmel amomrCevels SesaZloa mainc hqondes arCevanis saSualeba, Tumca – mcire. n jon fesmani: samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis ufrosi, The Economist

mis waxalisebis SiSiT), aramed regionebsa da soflebs misca. aman adgilobrivi mTavroba ufro avtonomiuri da swraf reaqciebze orientirebuli gaxada – saeWvoa, rom jokovi amdenis miRwevas SeZlebda solosa da jakartaSi, decentralizaciis farglebSi miRebuli Zalaufleba rom ar hqonoda. magram es aseve niSnavs, rom ambiciur nacionalur infrastruqturul proeqtebs dasturi dasWirdebaT uamravi politikosisgan, romelTagan meqrTameobis mimarT prezidentis mxurvale brZolas yvela rodi iziarebs. baton iudhoinos prezidentoba indoneziis msoflio arenaze gamosvliT aRiniSna: qveyana `did oceuls~ SeuerTda, daiwyo balis demokratiuli forumi da mniSvnelovani roli Seasrula klimaturi cvlilebebisadmi miZRvnil molaparakebebSi. jokovi prezidentobas ori maRali klasis saerTaSoriso RonisZiebiT iwyebs – aRmosavleT aziis samiti da didi `oceulis samiti~ imave kviras – magram sagareo politikam mis kampaniaSi mcire roli Seasrula da minimum moklevadian perspeqtivaSi igi ufro Sida frontze orientirebuli prezidenti iqneba, vidre misi winamorbedi iyo. yvelafers rom Tavi gavaneboT, jokovi misi damsaxurebebis wyalobiT airCies – rogorc problemebis momgvarebeli, da im pirobiT, rom mas SeeZlo yvela indonezielisTvis gaekeTebina is, rac solos da jakartis mosaxleobisTvis gaakeTa. 2015 wels man unda aCvenos, rom es namdvilad SeuZlia. n

azia

msoflio 2015

saqmis kaci adam robertsi, deli

indoeTi gaigebs, SeuZlia Tu ara narendra modis dapirebebis Sesruleba

as Semdeg, rac 2014 wels Tanamdeboba daikava, narendra modim Tavi daimkvidra rogorc uaxlesi istoriis manZilze yvelaze dominantma premier-ministrma. Zalaufleba centralizebulia mis ofisSi, misi kabineti mokrZalebulia, opozicia – damorCilebuli. igi popularulia da modernizacia surs, da SesaZloa ekonomikis liberalizaciac ganaxorcielos. roca infrastruqturis mSeneblobisTvis axali biZgis misacemad Tanxebi ar hyofnida, Tanamdebobaze yofnis pirveli ramdenime Tve diplomatiuri saqmianobis qarcecxlSi gaatara, raTa ekonomikisTvis stimulis misacemad ucxouri kapitali moezida. sxva qveynebTan erTad, iaponiasTan, CineTTan da aSS-sTan urTierTobebiT, mas surs 2015 wlidan ucxoelebs aaSenebinos rkinigzebi, portebi, qarxnebi da `Wkviani qalaqebi~. Tumca, es is welicaa, roca axali lideriT aRfrTovanebis emociam da marTvis miseulma Zalian personalizebulma stilma SeiZleba „gaxuneba“ daiwyos. dasawyisSi, sakmarisi iyo, rom baton modis Tamami gegmebi gamoecxadebina, raTa enTuziazmi SenarCunebuliyo. SemdegSi mas ukve arsebiTi cvlilebebis ganxorcieleba dasWirdeba. udidesi amocana ekonomikaa. saintereso momenti dadgeba TebervalSi an martSi, roca finansTa ministri arun jeitli mis pirvel srul biujets Seadgens. misma pirvelma mcdelobam – gasuli wlis ivlisSi SemoTavazebulma Sualedurma biujetma, damkvirvebelTa udidesi nawili gulgrili datova. mas aklda gadamwyveti reformebi da mxolod nawilobriv Seamsubuqa SezRudvebi ucxoelebze, romlebsac surT investireba dazRvevaSi, Tavdacvasa da sarkinigzo industriaSi, da metismetad frTxili iyo arCevnebSi uzarmazari gamarjvebis fonze. Tanabrad imedis gamacruebeli iyo, roca imave Tves, adgilobrivad, sursaTis subsidirebis dacvis mizeziT, indoeTma Caagdo msoflio vaWrobis organizaciasTan xelSekruleba, romelic globalur vaWrobas gaamartivebda. batonma jeitlim mas Semdeg miznad daisaxa, rom 2016 wels, saerTo erovnul doneze, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gadasaxads SemoiRebs – didi xnis manZilze dayovnebul RonisZiebas, romelic erTiani bazris Seqmnis gziT Sida vaWrobas gaaTavisuflebs. damdeg wels jeitlis niadagis mosamzadeblad progresi dasWirdeba. misTvis aseve aucilebelia Camoayalibos, Tu rogor SeiZleba, indoeTis dromoWmuli sistema sursaTis subsidirebis sferoSi, rac talonebsac exeba, Canacvldes fulad daxmarebaze damyarebuli

mxolod SesaZlebelia… maluli wnexis qveS, kim iong uni CineTidan CrdiloeT koreis liderad gadadis, da reJimis dezintegracia Cqardeba. indoeTis lideri narendra modi, romlis viziti CineTSi mosalodnelia, qveynebis himalaebis sazRvarze garigebas debs. malaiziuri avialaineris MH370-is namsxvrevebs indoeTis okeaneSi pouloben.

qari mis afrebSi

sistemiT, romlis drosac mimRebTa identificirebis biometruli sistemis – aadhaaris gamoyeneba moxdeba. adamianebi, romlebic axla subsidirebuli gaziT arian uzrunvelyofili, momavalSi aadhaarisa da sabanko angariSis saSualebiT, fuladi saxiT miiReben daxmarebas. narendra modis saqebrad unda iTqvas, rom man gadawyvita gaeaqtiurebina aadhaari, romelic ukve 700 milion adamians Seexo. 2015 wlis bolos, am ricxvma miliards unda miaRwios. man aseve samTavrobo kontrolisagan gaaTavisufla fasebi dizelze. progresi metismetad viwro dasabegri bazis gasafarToebad da fiskaluri deficitis Semcirebis mimarTulebiT, aseve swori gadawyvetileba iqneboda. komerciis saministros maRalCinosani amitabh kanti prognozirebs, rom msoflio bankis qveynebis reitingSi biznesis keTebis simartivis TvalsazrisiT, indoeTis ubadruki pozicia mkveTrad gaumjobesdeba. bolo angariSSi indoeTi samarcxvinod dabla – 142-e poziciaze CamoqveiTda. Tumca kanti ambobs, rom teqnikuri da biurokratiuli reformebi, rogoricaa biznesis dasawyebad saWiro 64 sxvadasxva formis erT onlainprocesad gardaqmna, indoeTs ramdenime weliwadSi wamyvan 50 qveyanas Soris moaxvedrebs. batonma modim ramdenime momxibvlelad Tamami dapireba gamoTqva: magaliTad, is acxadebs, rom ianvris dasasrulamde damatebiTi 75 milion ojaxs eqneba sabanko angariSi. modi ambobs, rom 2019 wlis bolomde uzarmazari problemebi mogvardeba. tualetebis aSenebis axali masobrivi kampaniis wyalobiT, sajarod moSardvis dro warsuls Cabardeba da binZuri mdinare gangis gawmendis warumatebeli Zalisxmeva, 30 wlis Semdeg, bolos da bolos Sedegs moitans. Tu romeliRac am dapirebaTagans warmateba uweria, 2015ma welma uxvi Sedegebi unda moitanos. naklebad mniSvnelovani, magram ufro xalisiani iqneba msoflios yvelaze maRal qandaqebaze muSaobis dawyeba – es gaxlavT valabhai patelis qandakeba, damoukideblobis gmirisa, romelsac batoni modi eTayvaneba. igi Tavisuflebis qandakebaze orjer maRali iqneba da savaraudod, 2018 wels dasruldeba. gujaraTSi asagebi qandakebis Seqmnis pirveli etapisTvis 33 milioni dolaria gaTvaliswinebuli. batoni modi frTxili iyo, raTa saxelmwifoebrivad emsjela da saamisod, sakuTar gancxadebebSi, indusebsa da muslimebs Zaladobis dasasrulisken mouwoda. Tumca mainc TvalsaCino iyo gazrdili re-

2015 mokled TurqmeneTi didebulad aRniSnavs 20 miukerZoebel wels neitralobisa da mSvidobis weliwadiT. 1995 wlis 12 dekembers, gaerom qveynis `mudmivi neitraliteti aRiara~

adam robertsi: deis biuros ufrosi, The Economist

2015 mokled papi franciski Sri-lankisa da filipinebisken miemgzavreba, rac am qveynebSi misi mesame da meoTxe vizitebia

azia

msoflio 2015

ligiuri daZabuloba – sul mcire, arCevnebis win, 2014 wlis bolos. problemuri iyo utar pradeSSi damatebiTi arCevnebis kampaniis liderad baton modis mmarTveli partiis – `bharatiia janata partiis~ (BJP) arameinstrimuli indusi lideris dasaxeleba. aseve SemaSfoTebelia, rom baton modis axlo TanaSemwe – amit Sahi BJP-is nacionaluri prezidentia. mas mkvleloba braldeba, romelic Sahis gujaraTSi moRvaweobisdroindelia. indusi nacionalistebis TaosnobiT, amaswinandeli xmauriani kampaniisas JRerdeboda gancxadebebi, TiTqos muslimi mamakacebi CarTuli iyvnen procesSi `Seiyvare jihadi~, romelic indusi qalebis Secdenas da islamze moqcevas gulisxmobda. kidev kargi, batonma Sahma Tavidan aicila es

mcdelobebi ufro mniSvnelovan, oqtomberSi daniSnul saxelmwifo arCevnebSi, riTac aCvena, rom amomrCevels gacilebiT metad ganviTareba ainteresebs. rac Seexeba premier-ministris opozicias, bevrs nu eliT. kongresis partiam 2014 wels orgzis ganicada kraxi – pirvelad Tavis katastroful arCevnebSi da Semdeg, roca ver gabeda ekiTxa, ratom damarcxda ase sastikad. erTi pasuxi isaa, rom misi nominaluri lideri rahul gandi ar apirebs samuSaos gagrZelebas. man uari Tqva parlamentSi partiis liderobaze. ise rom, mosalodneli ar aris, misi, rogorc politikosis mxridan, raime aqtiuroba momaval wels. 2015-Si baton modis mcire xelisSemSleli faqtorebi eqneba, rom dapirebebis realizeba ganaxorcielos. n

indoeTis sauniversiteto gamowveva adam robertsi, deli

moculobiT didi, xarisxiT – dabali

ufro metad aqcentirdebian, vidre swavlebaze. mbrwyinavi reklamebi xiblaven studentebs sacurao auzebiT, marmarilos foieebiT da garantirebuli samsaxuriT. studentebs naklebad adardebT swavla, radgan Zalian cota Tu awydeba gamocdaze CaWris risks. ise rom, Sedegi imedis gamacruebeli iqneba. kvalificiuri muSaxelis naklebobaze damsaqmebelTa wuwunis miuxedavad, indoeli kursdamTavrebulebis daaxloebiT mesamedi umuSevari darCeba. rogorc Aspiring Minds-is warmomadgeneli varun agarvali miiCnevs, es kompania studentTa unarebs swavlobs: sauniversiteto gamocdebi wesierad rom tardebodes, studentebis 70% CaiWreboda. misi SefasebiT, yovel wels 700 000 damamTavrebeli kursis sainJinro fakultetis students Soris mxolod 3% SeiZleba dasaqmdes ise, rom ramdenimeTviani winaswari treningi ar dasWirdes. xarisxis ramdenime niSani SeiZleba

metismetad cota koleji zrunavs swavlebis standartze

gamoCndes: studentebis mosazidad, konkurencia standarts aamaRlebs. ramdenime qvelmoqmedi iwyebs axali institutebis gaxsnaze muSaobas, romlebic eswrafvian, rom saukeTesoebi iyvnen. delis maxloblad, aSokas universiteti erT-erTi aseTia. igi Cafiqrebulia, rogorc Ivy League-is standartis liberalur mecnierebaTa koleji. erT-erTi damfuZnebeli, yofili venCeruli kapitalisti aSiS davani ambobs, rom mTavari mizani xarisxia, raTa `xarisxi marTla maRla avwioT~. igi erideba marketings, hyavs ucxoeli partniorebi (pensilvaniis universitetis CaTvliT), fakultetis mowveul wevrebs Rirseulad uxdis da mxolod SedarebiT mcire raodenobis gonebanaTel studentebs iRebs. saswavlebeli mxolod ramdenime wlisaa, da swavlis msurvelTa raodenoba didad aRemateba arsebul adgilebs. sxva, axal kerZo universitetebsac igive miznebi aqvT, magram kvlevebisTvis jer kidev ar aris seriozuli dafinanseba. roca es ganxorcieldeba, mxolod maSin moxvdebian indoeTis universitetebi msoflios wamyvan 200 universitets Soris. 2015 wels ara, magram warmatebis SemTxvevaSi, 2028 wlamde. n

u Tqveni xuTi wlis Svili 2015 wels skolaSi swavlas daiwyebs, maSin is mzad iqneba, rom 2028 wels universitetis studenti gaxdes. es aseve is welia, roca indoeTis mosaxleoba 1.45 miliards gadaaWarbebs da msoflioSi yvelaze mravalricxovani eri gaxdeba. am droisTvis, iqnebian ki sakmarisi raodenobis maRali donis diplomianebi, rom qveynis ganviTareba uzrunvelyon? Sansi ar arsebobs – upirvelesad, ganaTlebis Zirgamompali sistema Tu ar gamosworda. indoeTs, romelsac skolebSi 240 milioni bavSvi hyavs, zogad wignierebaSi garkveuli progresi eqneba, Tumca ganaTlebis sistemis didi nawili cud mdgomareobaSia. gansakuTrebiT sustia swavleba kolejebSi, Tumca seqtorSi bumia. skoladamTavrebulTa wili, romlebic umaRles ganaTlebas iReben, 2004 wlis 11%-dan, 2011 wels 23%-mde gaizarda. 2015 wlisTvis indoeTs eqneba 35 000 koleji, plus 700 universiteti, romelTa ricxvi kidev gaizrdeba. premier-ministrma narendra modim menejmentisa da teqnologiis ramdenime axali institutis gaxsnis piroba dado. misi mTavroba 60 axali universitetis gaxsnas gegmavs, samedicino da sainJinro kolejebis CaTvliT. yvelaze didi gafarToeba ki kerZo seqtorSi iqneba, romelmac ukve miizida umaRlesi ganaTlebis miRebis msurvelTa 60%. xarisxis nakleboba problemaa. 2015 wels nu eliT, rom indoeTis romeliRac universiteti, kerZo Tu sajaro, globaluri reitingis mqone wamyvan 200 universitets Soris iqneba (Tumca indoeTs ukeTesi situacia eqneba mba-ligis grafaSi). metismetad cota koleji zrunavs swavlebis standartze, kvlevaze rom aRaraferi vTqvaT. yvelaze uaresebi, principSi, muSaoben rogorc fulis gamTeTreblebi, da patiosnebic ki marketingze axalgazrda goneba arcerT qveyanaSi ar sWirdebaT

usafrTxoeba cifrebSi

2015 mokled

saimon longi, singapuri

aseani evrokavSirTan Sedarebis survils badebs

Twevriani samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis erebis asociacia (ASEAN), sakuTari namoRvawariT amayobs, rac gareSe TvalisTvis zogjer ise Cans, rogorc Zalian cota an saerTod arafris keTeba, garda imisa, rom organizacia yovel wels bevr Sexvedras marTavs. klubma didi xania 2015 weli transformaciis wlad monaTla, romlis drosac `aseanis sazogadoeba~ unda Seiqmnas. magram Secdoma iqneboda, rom organizaciisgan, romlis safirmo niSanic miznisken – regionuli integraciisken neli, konsensusze damyarebuli progresia, da romelic xSirad TeoriaSi ufro mimzidvelia, vidre praqtikaSi, dramatul cvlilebas daelodo. sinamdvileSi, 2015 kidev erTi weliwadi iqneba, romlis drosac politikuri ritorika ekonomikuri realobisgan Zalian Sors iqneba. sazogadoebis sam `burjTagan~ (socio-kulturuli, politikuri da ekonomikuri) aseanis ekonomikurma Tanamegobrobam (AEC) yvelaze didi aRtaceba gamoiwvia. aseanis ministrebs uyvarT trabaxi, rom igi regionul ekonomikas, romelic 600 milion adamians da 2,5 trilionze met dolars moicavs, erTian bazarsa da sawarmoo bazaSi gaaerTianebs. es ise JRers, TiTqos mosalodnelia, rom evrokavSiris stilis samxreTaRmosavleT aziis kavSiri Seiqmneba. ase ar aris. aziis ganviTarebis bankis (ADB) da singapuruli kvleviTi organizaciis – samxreT-aRmosavleT aziis kvlevebis institutis (ISEAS) mixedviT, „aseans ar aqvs perspeqtiva, rom... erTian bazars AEC-is mier dawesebul bolo vadamde – 2015 wlamde, an Tundac 2020 wlamde, an 2025 wlamde miuaxlovdeba“. qveynebs ar ainteresebT erTgvari centraluri biurokratia, romelic evrokavSirs amyarebs. aseans patara, susti kadrebiT dakompleqtebuli da cudad dafinansebuli samdivno aqvs, romlis administratorebic cdilobdnen SeesustebinaT molodini imaze, Tu ras SeiZleba niSnavdes 2015. rogorc isini acxade-

birma

azia

msoflio 2015

iaponia msoflios udidesi batareis instalacias asrulebs, romelic samxreTis kunZul hokaidoze Warbi mzisa da qaris energiis marags Seinaxavs

gigantebiT garSemortymuli

saimon longi: Banyan-is svetis avtori, The Economist

laosi vietnami tailandi

ben, es TariRi saetapoa, magram finiSis xazi ar aris. asec rom iyos, man 2012 wels 12 TviT ukan gadaiwia, roca aseani SeTanxmda, rom `2015~ ara ianvris pirvels, aramed 31 dekembers gulisxmobs. AEC-s gzaze sami didi dabrkoleba eRobeba: pirveli – misi wevrebis aSkara gansxvavebebia. roca 1967 wels daarsebulma organizaciam 1997 wels wevrebad miiRo laosi da birma, xolo momdevno wels kamboja, igi regionuli srulyofilebiT Senelebuli integraciis gamo, sakuTar Tavs akritikebda. 2015 wels, kambojaSi mSp erT sulze 1.260 dolari iqneba, singapuri ki 47-jer ufro mdidaria. aseani agreTve aerTianebs qveynebs, sadac budistebi, muslimebi da qristianebi umravlesobaSi arian, komunistur diqtaturebs, islamur sasulTnos da samxedro xuntas. meore – kerZo biznesebs aseanis bevr qveyanaSi erTmaneTTan Zlieri konkurencia aqvT da xSirad lobireben bazris gaxsnis RonisZiebebis winaaRmdeg, romelsac AEC iTvaliswinebs. da mesame – aseanis udidesi qveyana – indoneziac maT ricxvSia, romlebic ekonomikuri nacionalizmisken yvelaze metad arian midrekili. arCevnebSi axali prezidentis – joko vidodos gamarjvebas indoneziis aseanis partniorebi miesalmnen. yovel SemTxvevaSi, igi misi konkurentis – prabovo subiantos msgavsi xmalamoRebuli proteqcionisti mainc ar iyo. Tumca igi ibrZolebs, rom parlamentSi gamarjvebisTvis saWiro xmebi Seakowiwos.

filipinebi

kambojia

brunei malaizia singapuri indonezia

is, rom aseanma am donemde moaxerxa integrireba, gasaocaria. blokis SigniT TiTqmis yvela kategoriis produqciiT vaWroba tarifisgan gaTavisuflebulia. mcire gamonaklisebi mniSvnelovania, magram mainc – zomis mixedviT, regions SigniT mimdinare vaWrobis 70%-ze tarifebi ar vrceldeba da saSualo tarifi 5%-ze dabalia. Tumca, ADB/ISEAS-is kvlevam daaskvna, rom `arasatarifo barierebma, rogorc Sida industriebis mimarT proteqcionistulma RonisZiebebma, tarifebi Caanacvles~ da rom daumorCileblobis SemTxvevaSi, jarimebis ararseboba maTgan gaTavisuflebas arTulebs. Tumca, 2015 wels, daCqarebuli integraciis moTxovniT, wnexi ori wyarosagan iqneba mosalodneli: erTi maTgania Sida kerZo seqtori. bevri biznesi aseanSi sxva wevr qveynebs xedavs ara rogorc konkurents, aramed rogorc gasaRebis bazars, xolo regionis mTavrobas da Tavad aseans – rogorc dabrkolebas. magaliTad, malaiziis dabalfasianma aviakompania `earaziam~ scada, rom aseanis nacionaluri gadamyvani gamxdariyo. misma bosma – toni fernandesma 2014 wels daiCivla, rom 3 weli dasWirda SeTanxmebis misaRwevad, romlis mixedviTac aseanis logo (brinjis 10 Rerosgan Sekruli kona) mis erT-erT TviTmfrinavs daamSvenebda. `Cven unda gavcdeT nacionalizms da regionalizmi avitacoT~, – ganacxada man. meore wnexi sagareoa. investiciebis mosapoveblad da bazrebze wvdomisTvis, CrdiloeTiT aseans CineTTan aqvs konkurencia, da ufro da ufro metad, indoeTTanac. orive bevrad integrirebuli bazaria da orjer meti mosaxleoba hyavs. ekonomikaSic da geopolitikaSic, aseanSi bevri grZnobs, rom regionis qveynebs sxva arCevani ar aqvT garda imisa, rom erTmaneTs ufro mWidrod daukavSirdnen. n

aseanis monacemebi* aseani jamurad

mSp, $ mlrd mosaxleoba, mln mSp 1 sulze

2,756 630 4,370

evrokavSiri jamurad

18,160 510 35,620

CineTi indoeTi

11,628 1,360 8,550

2,515 1,270 1,980

birma tailandi

52 54 970

422 67 6,260

indonezia

990 256 3,870

laosi

vietnami

14 7 1,950

204 91 2,230

kambojia malaizia

20 16 1,260

371 31 12,090

singapuri

336 6 58,910

brunei filipinebi

16 0.4 37,340

332 102 3,260

*2015 wlis prognozis wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit

azia

gadamwyveti dro tamzin buTi, tokio

abenomikas cota dro rCeba

akarguli bolo ori aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, eqspertebma axali ganTiadebisa da istoriuli momentebis jaWvi iwinaswarmetyveles, magram maTi umravlesoba ar axda. Tumca, cotaa saeWvo imaSi, rom 2015 weli istoriaSi gadamwyvet wlad Caiwereba. premier-ministris – Sinzo abes samnawilian gegmas, rom ekonomikas energia xelaxla STaberos, sami mTavari movlena gamocdis:

mzardi gadasaxadis qveyana

2015 mokled samxreT korea iwyebs msoflios meore, udidesi naxSirbadis emisiiT vaWrobis sqemis ganxorcielebas

tamzin buTi: tokios biuros ufrosi, The Economist

upirvelesad, iaponiis banks (BoJ) deflaciis aRmofxvris pirobis Sesasruleblad mkacri bolo vada eqneba. bevri fiqrobda, rom igi namdvilad ver miaRwevda mizans, magram 2014 wlis oqtomberSi gamocxadebulma raodenobrivi Serbilebis damatebiTma dozam 2%-iani inflaciis miRwevis ufro didi imedi warmoSva. meore – samomxmareblo gadasaxadis anu iaponiis damatebiTi Rirebulebis gadasaxadis (dRg) Semdgomi zrda oqtomberSia mosalodneli – 2014 wlis zrdidan, 18 Tvis Semdeg. iaponiis sajaro finansebis SemaSfoTebeli mdgomareobis gaTvaliswinebiT, sayovelTao sibrZne gvkarnaxobs, rom baton abes, winsvlis garda, sxva gza ar aqvs. Tumca, samomxmareblo xarjvisTvis kidev erT biZgs SeuZlia nel-nela gamosworebis gzaze mdgomi ekonomika Zirs daanarcxos. mesame – batoni abe, romelic 2014 wels politikulad miudgomeli darCa, seqtembrisTvis daniSnuli liberal-demokratiuli partiis (LDP) saprezidento arCevnebis win SesaZloa garTulebul situaciaSi aRmoCndes. am arCevnebSi, da gazafxulze adgilobrivi arCevnebis seriaSi brwyinvale gamarjvebis naklebma Sedegma, SesaZloa misi warmatebisunarianobis `erozia~ gamoiwvios. arsebobs Sansi, rom 2015 marTlac is weli iqneba, roca abenomika, cnobili, rogorc baton abes programa, Sedegiani gaxdeba. man 2013 da 2014 wlis udidesi nawili sakuTari radikalizmiT gamowveul saerTaSoriso aRiarebiT tkbobaSi gaatara. bazrebma gamarjvebad Seracxes iaponiis bankis monetaruli Serbilebis politika da 2014 wlis oqtomberSi mis gafarToebas miesalmnen. baton abes gegmis meore nawilma – fiskaluri xarjebis msuye zrdam, ZiriTadad mizans miaRwia, Tumca, mesame nawili – miwodebis stimulirebisken mimarTuli mTeli rigi struqturuli reformebi, jer kidev mzaddeba. baton abes male mouwevs gadawyvitos, gadasaxadebis zrdis meore etapi gaagrZelos Tu ara. mxolod weliwadnaxevarSi, da Tanac gasagebi mizeziT, dRg arcerT did qveyanas ar gauzrdia. gadasaxadebis

msoflio 2015 meored zrdas iaponeli sazogadoeba pirvel zrdaze ufro xmamaRla ewinaaRmdegeba, Tumca amJamad mSp-is 240%-ze maRali saxelmwifo valis gastumrebis amocanisTvis Tavis asarideblad, Zalian mcire arCevani arsebobs. 2015 wels iaponiam SesaZloa mxolod pirveladi deficitis Semcirebis ZiriTadi mizani ganaxorcielos. es gaxlavT sxvaoba samTavrobo xarjebsa da Semosavlebs Soris valis momsaxurebis gadasaxdelebis gareSe, rac mSp-is 3.2%-s Seadgens. Tu abenomika sabolood damarcxdeba, baton abes mxardamWerebi 2014-2015 wlebis gadasaxadebis zrdisken gaiSveren xels (Tu meore zrdac ganxorcielda), rogorc am marcxis mTavari mizezisken. 2014 wlis aprilSi, gadasaxadis matebam momdevno kvartalSi, wina welTan SedarebiT, mSp-is dagegmilze gacilebiT mkveTri, 7.1%-iani vardna gamoiwvia. kidev erTi zrda, iaponiis bankis monetaruli Serbilebis politikis meore raundTan erTad, aucileblad moiTxovs met fiskalur stimuls. jerjerobiT, samomxmareblo gadasaxadis zrdis Sedegis garda, iaponiis bankma 1,5%ze ufro maRal inflacias ver miaRwia, da wlis Sua periodSi, Sesustebuli ienis Sedegad, fasebis indeqsebi isev CamoqveiTda. Serbilebis gagrZeleba male Tu ver aCvenebs Sedegs (iaponiis bankis gadacemis meqanizmebi ki, rogorebicaa sabanko sesxebi, aSkaraa rom ise ar muSaobs, rogorc amis imedi hqondaT) pirvel mimarTulebas kvlav SekiTxvebi mohyveba. monetaruli xelgaSlilobis yvela RonisZiebam, Tu mas struqturuli reforma ar axlavs, SesaZloa sabolood obligaciebis bazrebze SfoTva gamoiwvios. progresis saukeTeso niSnad, mesame mimarTulebiT (on the third arrow) Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb transwynari okeanis partniorobis xelSekrulebis miRweva moiazreba. Tumca, xelSekrulebis bedi bundovania. kidev erTi testi is iqneba, surs Tu ara mTavrobas iaponiis mouqnel ordonian Sromis bazars mixedos. Tumca, bevri SiSobs, rom amis nacvlad, momavalze orientirebuli reformis sawinaaRmdegod, 2015 wels mTavroba, savaraudod, moZvelebul stilSi soflad populisturi proeqtebis dafinansebas daubrundeba, rogorc regionuli ekonomikebis gaZlierebis moZvelebul da ara momavalze orientirebul politikas. mzardma inflaciam da 2014 wels samomxmareblo gadasaxadis zrdam ojaxebis msyidvelunarianoba daasusta, radgan xelfasebis zrda CamorCa am ukanasknelT. gazafxulze amomrCevels didi SesaZlebloba eqneba, rom LDP adgilobriv arCevnebSi qveynis masStabiT dasajos. asec rom iyos, batoni abe albaT iaponiis opoziciis sisustiT isargeblebs, romelic mogvianebiT partiis liderobis gamosavleni gamokiTxvisTvis samzadisSi ver moaxerxebs parlamentis qveda palatis asarCevad riggareSe arCevnebis daniSvnas zafxulSi.

gansxvavebuli Déjà vu batoni abes erovnuli usafrTxoebis dRis wesrigi seriozul moTxovnebs uyenebs mis politikur kapitalsac. mas surs, rom 2015 wels arapopularuli kanonebis seria miiRos, rac iaponias saSualebas miscems aliansis dasacavad gamovides, Tu maT Tavs daesxmebian. es CineTsa da koreasTan xmaurian daZabulobas daemateba. bevri TvalsazrisiT, 2015 weli, savaraudod, 2014 wlis gameorebas daemsgavseba. monetaruli Serbilebis bolo raundTan erTad, samomxmareblo gadasaxadis zrdis gasaneitraleblad, meti fiskaluri stimuli, da struqturuli reformebisken Semdgomi nabijebi, mokled – abenomika iqneba. magram amjerad, Sedegebi swrafad Tu ar gamoCnda, naklebad savaraudoa, rom amomrCevelma moTmineba SeinarCunos. n

azia

2015 mokled

avstraliis radarze

papua axali gvinea wynari okeanis TamaSebs maspinZlobs (romelic oTx weliwadSi erTxel imarTeba) da sportis 28 saxeobaSi 24 qveynis warmomadgenel sportsmens mouyris Tavs

robert milikeni: avstraliis korespondenti, The Economist

robert milikeni, sidnei

galipolis gaxseneba da fiqri momavlis CineTze

vstralia 2015 wels Tavis udides movlenas gaixsenebs – 25 aprils igi TurqeTSi, galipolis naxevarkunZulze sakuTari jarebis gadasxmas aRniSnavs. pirveli msoflio omisdroindeli es gamanadgurebeli kampania, romelmac 8700 avstralielisa da 2700 axalzelandielis sicocxle Seiwira, avstraliis saxelmwifoebriobis gancdaSi galipolis umniSvnelovanes rols warmoaCens. dafuZnebidan mxolod 13 wlis Semdeg, axalgazrda qveyana omSi wavida, rogorc britaneTis dominioni, magram msoflioSi sakuTari adgilis codnis TvalsazrisiT, ufro Tavdajerebuli dabrunda. asi wlis iubiles premier-ministr toni abotTan eqneba gamoZaxili, romelmac 2013 wels konservatiuli liberal-nacionaluri koalicia qveynis saTaveSi moiyvana. is mxurvale anglofonia: man britanuli stilis raindebisa da mandilosnebis wodeba, gauqmebidan 40 wlis Semdeg, avstraliaSi kvlav aRadgina. bevri amomrCevlisTvis aman ubralod is idea daadastura, rom abots Tanamedrove avstraliaze warmodgena ar hqonda. misi mTavrobis warumatebelma mcdelobam, avstralielebi 2014 wlis pirveli biujetis miRebisas xarjvis seriozuli Semcirebis sikeTeebSi daerwmunebina, kidev ufro daamZima premier-ministris mdgomareoba. xelisuflebaSi yofnis pirveli wlis udides periodSi, sazogadoebriv gamokiTxvebSi igi leiboristuli partiis ukan `miCanCalebda~.

didi barieris wuxili robert milikeni, sidnei

gankiTxvis dRe bunebis ZeglisTvis

msoflio 2015

unebis moyvarulebi, myvinTavebi da Tavgadasavlebis maZiebelni 2015 wels did barierul rifs miawydebian. is, rasac iunesko `marjnis rifebis msoflios yvelaze rTul sistemas~ uwodebs, 400 saxeobis marjnis, 1500 Tevzis, veSapis, delfinis, zRvis Citis da kus samSobloa. Tumca rifi, romelic avstraliis aRmosavleT Statis – qvinslendis gaswvriv, daaxloebiT 2300 kilometrzea gadaWimuli (1500 mili), aseTi safrTxis winaSe arasodes yofila. avstralia Tavis erovnul ganZTan dakavSirebiT rTuli realobis winaSe aRmoCndeba. rifis msoflio memkvidreobis

2015 wels rTuli amocana iqneba ekonomikis ise warmarTva, rom mas Semdeg, rac CineTTan dakavSirebul resursebis bums hqonda adgili, `saocnebo rbolidan~ etapobrivi gamosvla moxdes. zrda 2.5%-mde daecema da umuSevroba 6%-s gadaaWarbebs. Tu avstraliis udidesi eqsporti – rkinis madani 2014 wlis fasebis dacemis krizisidan ver gamovida, Sedegebi ekonomikis yvela sferoze sagrZnobi iqneba. batonma abotma kritikosebi ufro metad sagareo politikis warmarTvis unariT gaaoca, vidre saSinao frontze. iaponiisa da indoeTis liderebTan misi molaparakebebis Sedegad, am qveynebTan urTierTobebi gaZlierda. avstralia 2015 wels indoeTTan erTad sazRvao wvrTnebs Caatarebs da iaponias Tavdacvis sferoSi codnas gauziarebs. am orive urTierTobis gaRrmaveba, Tu is usafrTxoebis sferosac moicavs, CineTis mzardi samxedro Zalauflebis winaaRmdeg Tavdacvis saSualeba iqneba. avstraliis manevrireba mis mTavar savaWro partnior CineTsa da mTavar strategiul partnior aSS-s Soris dasavleT avstraliis dausaxlebel regionebSi gaxdeba TvalsaCino. aSS-m 2014 wels karibebidan aq radarebis sistema gadmoitana, radgan avstraliis udidesi, yvelaze carieli Stati CineTidan gaSvebuli satelitebis ufro swrafi aRmoCenis saSualebas iZleva. 2015 wels, dasavleT avstraliaSi SesaZloa meore saxmeleTo sadgurma daiwyos operireba. avstraliis kosmosuri dakvirvebis amocana, qveyanas savaraudod aSS-sa da CineTs Soris arsebul nebismieri saxis konfliqtSi CaiTrevs. dasavleT avstraliisTvis es Zalian gansxvavebuli roli iqneba warsulis im movlenisgan, roca qveyanam saukunis win pirveli jari Casxa xomaldSi da galipolisken saomrad gauSva. n

nusxaSi Seyvanidan 34 wlis Semdeg, gaero ivnisSi gadawyvets daumatos Tu ara igi safrTxis winaSe arsebul msoflio memkvidreobis sias. „bolo 29 wlis ganmavlobaSi, rifis marjani uCinardeba. es yvelaze mwvaved rifis samxreT nawilis or-mesamedze SeiniSneba“, – acxadebs didi barieris rifis sazRvao parkis xelmZRvaneloba – avstraliuri uwyeba, romelsac misi dacva evaleba. sazRvao mecnierebi am faqts metwilad zRvis temperaturis awevas da gamJavianebas abraleben da mizezebs klimatur cvlilebas, agreTve sasuqebsa da pesticidebs ukavSireben, romlebic marjnis zRvasa da wynar okeaneSi fermebidan Caedineba. ufro didi safrTxe qvanaxSirisgan aris mosalodneli. 2014 wels mTavroba daTanxmda abot pointTan dagegmili portis gafarToebis dros amoRebuli daaxloebiT 3 mln kuburi metri moculobis miwis qanebis wylebSi Caclas. or

indur kompanias – `adans~ da GVK-s es saSualebas miscems qvinslendis galileis auzSi mdebare axali didi proeqtebidan qvanaxSiri gadazidos. ufro adre, rifis samxreT portidan amoRebuli miwa napiridan moSorebiT Cacales, ramac 2015 wlidan Txevadi bunebrivi gazis eqsports misca saSualeba. abot pointis usargeblo qanebis nawili SeiZleboda xmeleTze CaemarxaT. `mwvaneTa~ gancxadebiT, tvirTebis ufro intensiuri gadazidvisa da eqsportirebuli qvanaxSirisgan naxSirbadis gamofrqvevis mier okeaneze gamowveuli Sedegis gamo, rifi safrTxis winaSe mainc darCeba. federalurma da qvinslendis mTavrobebma 2014 wlis bolos kanonproeqti moamzades 2050 wlamde rifis `dasacavad da samarTavad~. vidre mTavrobebi ivnisSi gadawyvetilebas miiReben, iuneskos TebervlisTvis konservaciis ganaxlebuli angariSi sWirdeba. ufro meti travmisgan rifi SesaZloa orma niuansma daicvas: pirveli – misi turistuli industriis (romelic mxolod qvinslendSi weliwadSi 5 miliard avstraliur dolars (4.5 aSS dolari) iZleva) warmomadgenlebi, Caclis gegmebis gamo aRSfoTebas gamoTqvamen; da meore – Tu qvanaxSiris fasebi 2015 wels dacemas ganagrZobs, galileis auzis Savi nivTiereba SesaZloa miwaSive darCes. n

azia

msoflio 2015

indoneziis saqmiani gegmebi

ndoneziisTvis 2015 datvirTuli weli iqneba. molodini didia. Cven msoflios mesame udidesi demokratia varT. aseve planetis yvelaze mravalricxovan im qveyanas warmovadgenT, sadac muslimebi mosaxleobis umravlesobas Seadgenen. es amtkicebs, rom islami da demokratia SeuTavsebeli ar aris. Cveni erTguleba sakuTari erovnuli devizis mimarT – Bhinneka Tunggal Ika (`erTianoba mravalferovnebaSi~), ucvleli rCeba. da mainc, samuSao kidev bevria. reformasidan 16 wlis Semdeg, romelmac suhartos era daasrula, bevri indonezielisTvis ukeTesi cxovreba mainc miuRweveli rCeba. TumcaRa, indonezia msyidvelunarianobis TvalsazrisiT, msoflios meaTe udidesi ekonomikaa. uTanasworobis done gaizarda. zogi irwmuneba, rom demokratiam mdidrebsa da Raribebs Soris arsebuli naprali gaafarTova. me am gansxvavebebis mosagvareblad amirCies. demokratiam yvelas didi keTildReoba unda moutanos. indoneziis zomis qveynis marTva martivi ar aris. Cven tradicias arsebiTad unda gavemijnoT. aseve, mTel rig seriozul sirTuleebs unda gavumklavdeT. bolodroindeli `resursebis bumi~ dasrulda. indoneziam unda Sewyvitos bunebriv resursebze damokidebuleba da eqsportis diversificireba moaxdinos. Cven ufro meti investiciebi unda CavdoT infrastruqturasa da warmoebaSi – iseve, rogorc kvlevebsa da ganviTarebaSi. me yvelafers gavakeTeb iseTi proeqtebis dasrulebis dasaCqareblad, rogorebicaa 615 km-iani (380 mili) fasiani gza Trans-Java. indoneziam portebic unda gaaumjobesos. Cven arqipelaguri qveyana varT. sakuTar sazRvao potencialze ganaxlebuli fokusireba Cveni zRvebis uzarmazar potencials gzas gauxsnis. ukeTesi portebi qveynis SigniT transportisa da logistikis sferos efeqtianobasac gaaumjobesebda. axali SesaZleblobis wyalobiT mosalodnelia, rom 2015 wels indoneziis konteinerebis moZraoba mniSvnelovnad gaumjobesdeba, Tumca dokumentebis damuSavebisTvis saWiro mosacdeli dro gaizarda. es unda Seicvalos. Tu Cemi Careva saqmis winsvlas daexmareba (magaliTad, miwis Sesyidvis daCqarebiT da biurokratiis SemcirebiT), samoqmedod me ar Sevyoymandebi. da rac ufro mniSvnelovania – indoneziam Tavisi adamianuri kapitali unda gaaumjobesos. ganaTlebisa da jandacvis xarisxi unda amaRldes. msoflio bankis mixedviT, 2012 wels indoneziam sajaro ganaTlebaze Tavisi GDP-is mxolod 3.6% daxarja – ufro naklebi, vidre Cvenma mezoblebma. Cven demografiuli bumis gaflangvis riskis winaSe varT. sakuTari, 250-milioniani Zlieri mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 50% 30 wlamde asakisaa. win naTeli arCevania: axalgazrdebi Cveni momavali ekonomikuri zrdis mamoZravebel Zalad unda gadavaqcioT. Tu es ar gamogviva, isini masobriv, ukmayofilo tvirTad gadaiqcevian. indoneziis sawvavis subsidirebis reJims

dauyovneblivi reforma esaWiroeba. wina mTavrobis bolo biujetma mxolod sawvavis subridirebisTvis 276 trilioni rupia (22.5 miliardi aSS dolari) gamoyo. es mdgradi ar aris. me vimuSaveb, rom subsidiebi nel-nela samomxmareblo miznebidan warmoebis miznebisken mivmarTo. danazogi iq gadamisamarTdeba, sadac namdvilad saWiroa: sazogadoebrivi transporti, socialuri usafrTxoeba da soflis meurneobaSi Semosavlebis gaumjobeseba. es reformebi advilad da swrafad ar ganxorcieldeba, magram winsvla ar unda SevwyvitoT. indoneziis dabali efeqtianoba da korufciis aRqma mravals aSfoTebs. msoflioSi yvela qveyana dgas am problemebis winaSe. aseTi Cvevebis amosaZirkvad, me davicav da gavaZliereb korufciis aRmofxvris komisiis damoukideblobas. gamWvirvalobisa da efeqtianobis xelSesawyobad, eleqtronuli mTavrobis iniciativebs gavatarebT.

diax, me – `blusukani~ me aseve gavagrZeleb Cems „blusukan“-is, anu daugegmavi vizitebis Cvevas, romelic rogorc solos merma da Semdeg jakartis gubernatorma, daviwye. roca aseTi vizitiT mivdivar, energiiT var savse, vxvdebi xalxs, maT wuxils vismen da Semdeg am problemebis mogvarebis gzebs vpoulob. eWvi ar mepareba, rom es reformisadmi sazogadoebriv mxardaWeras gazrdis. magram qveynis winsvlaSi wvlili rigiTma indonezielebmac unda Seitanon. Cven gvWirdeba `mentaluri revolucia~ – rwmena, rom SegviZlia sakuTari cxovreba gamovasworoT. amis dasawyisi TvalsaCinoa. bolo arCevnebis dros, yvela profesiis adamiani moxalised gverdSi damidga, rom Cemi kampaniisTvis mxari daeWira da politika kvlav masebamde mietanaT. me minda, rigiTma indonezielebma ganagrZon mTavrobis mier danapirebis Sesrulebisa da yvela doneze momsaxurebis kontroli, da es Cems saqmianobasac exeba. sakuTari moxaliseebis enTuziazmi da Tavdadeba Semaxsenebs, rom Cemi administraciisgan bevrs elian. zogierTi damkvirvebeli ambobs, rom indoneziam regionuli, globaluri lideris rolic ki unda ikisros. Cven gvsurs vimoqmedoT rogorc patiosanma Suamavalma samxreT CineTis zRvaSi da sxva globalur sakiTxebSi. Tumca sazRvargareT cvlilebis miRweva mxolod maSin SegviZlia, Tu Sin sandooba,zrda da ganaxleba gvaqvs. fundamentur doneze, Cemi mTavrobis gamowveva ndobis aRdgenaa. es iqneba kerZo seqtori, sagareo sakiTxebi Tu indonezieli sazogadoeba, Cven unda davarwmunoT isini, rom indoneziis potenciali ufro metia, vidre ubralo enTuziazmi. 2015 wels gasakeTebeli bevria. ramdenadac indoneziis momavali perspeqtivisTvis globaluri ndobis aRdgenas vcdilobT, Cemnairma liderebma dRe da Rame unda imuSaon, raTa xalxis ndoba SeinarCunon. droa indonezielebma mklavebi davikapiwoT da saqmes SevudgeT. n

joko vidodo – indoneziis prezidenti ambobs, rom misma qveyanam reformisTvis „mklavebi unda daikapiwos“

magram sazRvargareT cvlilebis miRweva mxolod maSin SegviZlia, Tu Sin sandooba,zrda da ganaxleba gvaqvs

msoflio 2015

CineTi

amave seqciaSi: servisebis bumi 63 ufro neli zrdis gegma 64 mxolod SesaZlebelia… 64

meti „kunTebis TamaSi~

batoni si imedovnebs, rom CineTis ekonomikuri Zliereba mezobel qveynebs aiZulebs mis mzard moRonierebas mxolod sityvieri SeSfoTebiT gamoexmauron. 2015 wels CineTi calkeuli Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebebis gaformebaSi progresis miRwevas Seecdeba. es moicavs garigebas samxreT koreasa da iaponiasTan, aseve regionuli yovlismomcveli ekonomikuri partniorobis saxeliT cnobili xelSekrulebis gaformebas samxreT aRmosavleT aziis qveynebTan, aseve avstraliasTan, indoeTTan, iaponiasTan da samxreT koreasTan. miuxedavad imisa, rom CineTis ekonomikuri zrda 2015 wels kidev ufro Seneldeba, qveyana regionSi da mis miRma mdebare moTamaSeebisaTvis mainc uaRresad mimzidveli darCeba, rogorc moTxovnisa da investiciebis wyaro. magaliTad, gaisad CineTi SesaZloa biznesmogzaurobaze yvelaze did mxarjav qveynad iqces (TumcaRa, xarjebis didi wili mainc saSinao mogzaurobaze gavrceldeba). 2015 wels CineTSi dabandebuli investiciebis moculoba, savaraudod, pirvelad gadaaWarbebs CineTidan ucxoeTSi dabandebuli kapitalis moculobas. Senelebuli ekonomikuri zrda ver Seaferxebs CineTis kosmosur ambiciebs, maT Soris – kosmosuri sadguris mSeneblobis gegmebs, aseve daaxloebiT 10 weliwadSi mTvareze astronavtis gagzavnis survils. mzadeba ukve mimdinareobs. 2016 wels CineTi laboratoria `tiangong 2~-is proeqts gauSvebs, romlis amocana kosmosuri sadguris teqnologiebis testireba iqneba. momdevno wels Cinuri kosmosuri xomaldi dedamiwas mTvaris zedapiris nimuSebis Segrovebis Semdeg daubrundeba. CineTma sul axlaxan kunZul hainanze kosmosuri xomaldis gamSvebi bazis mSenebloba daasrula. saxelmwifo moxeleebi imedovneben, rom es baza momaval wels turistebisTvis xelmisawvdomi gaxdeba da aTasobiT adamiani kosmosuri aparatebis gaSvebis naxvas moindomebs.

jeims mailsi

ufro neli zrda, magram mzardi Zalaufleba

rezidentma si Zinpinma, mas mere, rac mao Zedunis Semdeg yvela lideris xelT arsebul Zalauflebaze meti moipova, axlaxan `qudi axali bumbuliT daimSvena~. 2015 wels CineTi msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetze gadaangariSebiT, msoflios udidesi ekonomikis rangSi Seabijebs. batoni si am miRwevas ar gaaxmaurebs. Cinelma liderebma kargad uwyian, Tu rogor aRizianebs maTi qveynis aRmasvla zogierTebs dasavleTSi. miuxedavad amisa, SeSfoTeba CineTTan dakavSirebiT momdevno wels kvlavac gagrZeldeba. baton sis liderobiT qveyana mudmivad cdilobs wynari okeanis dasavleT nawilSi pretenziebis dasabuTebas, rac mezoblebTan da gansakuTrebiT aSSsTan daZabulobas zrdis. 2015 wels es daZabuloba ar Cacxreba. CineTma ganacxada, rom 2015 samxreTaRmosavleT aziis saxelmwifoebTan `sazRvao TanamSromlobis weli~ unda gamxdariyo. amasTanave, CineTi sulac ar amJRavnebs did survils uari Tqvas aRmosavleT da samxreT CineTis zRvebSi mdebare teritoriebze, romlebsac Tavisad miiCnevs. es moicavs sadavo kunZulebsa da rifebze Senobebis agebas, patrulirebisTvis sanapiro sadarajo katarRebis maT siaxloves gagzavnas da sadavo wylebSi navTobisa da gazis mopovebas. calkeuli qveynebi SiSoben, rom SesaZloa CineTma samxreT CineTis zRvis akvatoria `sahaero Tavdacvis identifikaciis zonad~ gamoacxados, rac 2013 wels ukve moxda aRmosavleT CineTis zRvis SemTxvevaSi, rac aSS-sTan da iaponiasTan urTierTobis daZabvis mizezi gaxda. aseT zonaSi gadaadgilebisas TviTmfrinavebis ekipaJis wevrebi saerTaSoriso sahaero sivrceSi yofnis drosac ki valdebulni xdebian frenis Sesaxeb auwyon CineTis xelisuflebas. albaT amas sahaero satransporto nakadebze umniSvnelo efeqti Tu eqneba, Tumca regionis sxva qveynebma SesaZloa es provokaciul Jestad aRiqvan. savaraudod, 2016 wlis dasawyisSi, sasamarTlo filipinebis mier CineTis pretenziebis sawinaaRmdegod aRZrul sarCelsac daakmayofilebs. CineTi ukve acxadebs, rom am verdiqts ar daeTanxmeba.

mosalodnelia WeChat-ze SezRudvaTa gamkacreba

Zlevamosili si jeims mailsi: CineTis redaqtori, The Economist

CineTis Zlierebis aseTi demonstracia baton sis saSinao statuss ganamtkicebs. momdevno wels cxadi gaxdeba, rom batonma sim ukve sabolood Tqva uari komunisturi partiis `koleqtiuri xelmZR-

ukeTesi momsaxurebis wyurvili vijai vaitisvarani, Sanxai

Sua samefo jadosnur samefos xvdeba

CineTi

msoflio 2015

Si es seqtorebi Cinur mrewvelobasTan SedarebiT, Zalze umniSvnelod gamoiyurebodnen. ganviTarebul qveynebSi, rogorc wesi, mSp-s daaxloebiT or mesameds momsaxurebis sfero Seadgens. aSS-Si es wili oTx mexuTeds Seadgens. marTalia servisebi CineTSi bevrad naklebadaa ganviTarebuli, dawinaurebul ekonomikebTan SedarebiT, magram maTi moculoba 80iani wlebis Semdeg orjer da metad gaizarda. momsaxurebis sferos zrda axla uswrebs mrewvelobis zrdis tempebs da sul male servisebze CineTis ekonomikis mTliani gamoSvebis umetesi wili gavrceldeba. sul ufro metad postindustriul SanxaiSi momsaxureba ukve gamoSvebis 60%-ze mets uzrunvelyofs. gasuli sami wlis ganmavlobaSi, Matthews Asia-s endi rotmanis gaangariSebiT, CineTSi moxmareba wliuri 9%iT izrdeboda. amis sapirispirod, es maCvenebeli iaponiaSi, germaniasa da britaneTSi 1%-ze naklebs Seadgenda. urbanuli mosaxleobis uRaribesi meaTedis nominaluri Semosavalic ki wliurad saSualod 14%-iT izrdeboda. axla hori-

loridis gareT mSenebare yvelaze ambiciuri disneis Tematuri parki 2015 wlis bolos CineTSi gaixsneba. parki, romlis mSenebloba, savaraudod, 5 miliardi aSS dolari dajdeba da daaxloebiT milion kvadratul metrze iqneba gadaWimuli, princesebiT savse ilustrirebuli sabavSvo zRaprebis krebuliT STagonebuli udidesi cixesimagre iqneba dedamiwaze. amave dros, Sanxais `disneilendis~ karis gaxsna msoflioSi mxolod yvelaze gayidvadi mRrRnelis mosvlas rodi moaswavebs – es qveynis mravaltanjuli saSualo klasis STambeWdavi aRzevebis niSanicaa. CineTis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis modeli, momsaxurebasTan SedarebiT, investirebas aniWebda upiratesobas. mmarTvelebi `finansuri represiis~ praqtikas iyenebdnen, riTac bankebi muSaTa klass anabrebze mwir an sulac uaryofiT sargebels sTavazobdnen. aqedan miRebuli mogeba, SemdgomSi subsidirebuli kapitalis saxiT mrewvelobis flagmanebisa da saxelmwifos favoriti firmebis dasafinanseblad miemarTeboda. am da sxva gzebiT sistema moxmarebas zRudavda. mcire investorTa sabednierod, qveynis liderebma bolo dros es praqtika Secvales. axla isini mzad arian waaxalison moxmareba da ekonomika ufro mdgradi gziT warmarTon. amis Sedegi albaT momsaxurebis sferos zrda da momxmarebelTa moTxovnis dakmayofileba iqneba. es moicavs servisebis farTo speqtrs sacalo vaWrobiTa da turizmiT dawyebuli, finansebiTa da jandacviT damTavrebuli. wlebis ganmavloba- delikatesi sakmarisia?

vanelobis~ ideaze erTi kacis Zlieri mmarTvelobis sasargeblod. miuxedavad amisa, Zalaufleba mas usafrTxoebis gancdas ver Sematebs. 2015 wels CineTSi internetis momxmarebelTa ricxvi 70 milions miaRwevs, rac amerikeli da iaponeli internetmomxmareblebis jams orjer aRemateba. mravali maTgani socialur medias mimdinare politikur sakiTxebze msjelobaSi CarTvis mizniT gamoiyenebs. maTi yvelaze mamaci nawili partiisa da misi liderebis mimarT kritikuli iqneba. cenzorTa uzarmazari armia maTi kontroliT dakavdeba. mosalodnelia SezRudvebis gamkacreba WeChat-Tan – popularuli socialuri qselebis servisTan dakavSirebiT, romelic aqamde ufro Tavisuflad funqcionirebda, vidre cenzuris

zontze moxmarebis axali talRa moCans. momsaxurebis momavali aRmasvla SesaZloa miswreba aRmoCndes rogorc adgilobrivi, aseve savaraudod ucxouri firmebisTvisac. stiven rouCi ielis universitetidan gamoTqvams mosazrebas, rom 2025 wlisaTvis momsaxurebis sferos zrdam SesaZloa 12 trilioni dolari Seadginos. daSvebebze dayrdnobiT, romlebic imas ukavSirdeba, Tu rogor gaixsneba qveyana da romeli servisebi iqneba saerTaSoriso vaWrobis sagani, ucxouri firmebi CineTSi 4-6 trilioni dolaris Rirebulebis axali bazris gaCenas unda elodnen. jandacvis seqtoris bolodroindeli liberalizacia, magaliTad, imas niSnavs, rom 2015 wels mdidarTaTvis gankuTvnil saavadmyofoebSi kerZo kapitalis moZalebaa mosalodneli. amJamad, es xalxi jandacvis momsaxurebis misaRebad honkongsa da singapurSi miemgzavreba. bolo wlebSi Cineli samedicino turistebis ricxvis gaormageba TviT uSores klivlendis klinikaSic ki dafiqsirda. drois niSania, rom klinika pekinis hospitalTan TanamSromlobs Tavis tvinis janmrTelobis gaumjobesebis sakiTxebze. 2015 wels ucxouri investiciebi jandacvis sferoSi gaizrdeba – gansakuTrebiT, moxucebulTa movlis mobilur saxlebSi. McKinsey Global Institute-is mixedviT, momavalSi, Sanxaisa da pekinSi msoflioSi yvelaze meti mdidari moxuci icxovrebs, xolo msoflios aTi udidesi qalaqidan xuTi CineTSi iqneba. CineTis saSualo klass sul ufro da ufro bezrdeba ugergilo momsaxureba. misi mzardi moTxovna moaswavebs inovaciur bums TiTqmis yvelaferSi – mSrali dasufTavebiT dawyebuli, delikatesebis miwodebiTa da garTobiT damTavrebuli. miki mauss es aSkarad moewoneba. n vijai vaitisvarani: CineTis biznesredaqtori, The Economist

wnexSi myofi weibo-s saxeliT cnobili mikroblogebi. CineTis internetmomxmareblebs 2015 wels bevri ram eqnebaT gansaxilveli: isini aucileblad didi interesiT gaecnobian gadamdgari uSiSroebis Sefis jou ionkanis saqmesTan dakavSirebul detalebs. es ukanaskneli 1949 wels, partiis xelisuflebaSi mosvlis Semdeg, korufciaSi braldebuli umaRlesi politikuri figuraa. baton sis Zlierebis gamocda is iqneba, gadawyvets Tu ara igi gaasamarTlos soliduri kavSirebis mqone batoni jou. mosalodnelia, rom es ase iqneba. Tu asec moxdeba, sasamarTlo procesi partiis umaRles eSelonebSi Zalauflebis borotad gamoyenebis praqtikis gasajaroebis precedents Seqmnis. n

2015 mokled samuSaoebi sruldeba hon kongiJuhai-makaos xidis 42-e kilometrze

msoflio 2015

CineTi

sayuradRebo cifri

cielebuli da warsulSi zrdis uzrunvelmyofi investiciebis politikidan gadaaxvevinebs. ufro dabali mSp-s samizne miuTiTebs, rom batoni si amisTvis saimon rabinoviCi, Sanxai mzadaa da Sesabamisi safasuris gadasaxdelad sakmaemzadeT zrdis ufro dabali risi politikuri kapitalic gaaCnia. niSnulisTvis reformebi ramdenime mimarTulebiT warimarTeba: axali sabiujeto kanoni provinciebs obligaciebis ac ufro mets cdilobs CineTi ekonomikuri pirdapiri gziT gamoSvebis saSualebas aZlevs, rac zrdidan yuradRebis gadatanas, miT met simwingadadgmuli nabijia maTi finansebis mosawesrigewvaves iZens es sakiTxi. garemos dacva, mecblad da valebis gamWvirvalobis uzrunvelsayofad. nieruli inovacia, jandacvis maCveneblebi – sacdeli RonisZiebebi, romlebic saxelmwifo komkomunisturi partiisTvis es indikatorTa mxolod is paniebis aqtivebis kerZo investorebisTvis miyidvis mcire CamonaTvalia, romlebmac saxelmwifo moxeleTa wasaxaliseblad iyo gamiznuli, kidev ufro ganmtsaqmianobis xarisxis Sefasebisas mSp unda Caanacvlon. kicdeba. miuxedavad amisa, saxelmwifo daiwyeba ori gadadebuli reformac: upirvelesmoxeleTa, investorTa da korTargeTireba ad, mTavroba saerToerovnul qonebis gadasaxads CineTis mSp, wina welTan %-li cvlileba* poraciebis mmarTvelTa mzera SemoiRebs. es Semosavlis axali wyaroa, romelic 14.2 oficialuri zrdis samiznisken carieli binebis mflobelebs dabegravs. Tavda14.2 – swored im parametrisken iqneba pirvelad, gadasaxadi uZravi qonebis bazris mipyrobili, romlis mniSvnelokolafsis Tavidan asacileblad, dabali realuri bis damcrobas mTavroba ase dabe- 11.6 iqneba. meore – bankebi bolosdabolos zrda jiTebiT cdilobs. daeTanxmebian depozitebis dazRve10.4 10.1 dasawyisSi, premier-ministri 10 vis sqemis SemoRebas, rac bankis ga9.6 9.2 li keciani CineTis erzac par- 8.9 kotrebis SemTxvevaSi dazRvevis 8.3 laments angariSs warudgens, erTgvari meqanizmia. es cudad 7.7 7.6 7.3 romelSic momavali Tveebis primarTuli institutebis gakotre7.0 oritetebi iqneba mimoxiluli. bas gauxsnis gzas da aiZulebs angariSis nawils xSirad gameoinvestorebis riskis ukeT Se9.0 rebulsa da uSinaarsos vixilavT, fasebisas gaisarjon. 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 gacveTili lozungebis saxiT. arc ise swrafad, magram 7.5 7.53.8 7.0 7.0 zogierTi prioriteti Rirebumomdevno weli CineTis fili da zusti iqneba, magaliTad, nansuri sistemisaTvis bobomTavrobis gegma 6.0 rogor unda daixarjos Tanxebi qari iqneba. qonebis bazris 4.5 ufro xelmisawvdomi sacxovredaRmasvla gagrZeldeba imis beli farTis mSeneblobasa da kvalobaze, rom sul ufro soflad ganaTlebaze. miuxedavad meti axali binis mSenebloba amisa, yuradRebas mainc am angaridasruldeba da developSis Sua nawilSi TiTqosda SemTxerTa fasebs damatebiT wnexs 90 1986 88 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14* 15 veviT Cawerili mSp-s zrdis gegma Seuqmnis. CineTis feTqebadi *realuri zrdis prognozi wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit; CineTis mTavroba miipyrobs. sakredito bazris zrdis es yovelTvis ase ar iyo. wlimomsaxurebisTvis mimdinare uri zrdis maCveneblis miznad gadasaxdelebis moculoba kidev ufro gaizrdeba. Cidasaxvis praqtika 1980-iani wlebidan iRebs saTaves. neTis adgilobrivi mTavrobis 3 trilioni dolaris am periodis umetes nawilSi zrdis samizne ekonomiRirebulebis valis TiTqmis 40%-is gadaxdis bolo kis realur traeqtoriaze gacilebiT dabla iyo vada ukve unda damdgariyo, Tumca maTi gadavadeba moniSnuli, rac mas Seusabamos xdida. axla, roca CiSesaZlebelia, rac gaarTulebs situacias sakredineTis ekonomikuri zrda Senelda, es indikatori myar to bazarze. 2014 wels CineTis korporaciuli valis politikur valdebulebad iqca, romelic calkeuli pirveli defoltis SemTxvevam bazarze didi SeSfoTeanalitikosebisa da eqspertebis SefasebiT, amaxinba gamoiwvia, Tumca sabolood investorebi saxelmjebs politikur gadawyvetilebebs (ix. grafa). 2013 da wifom ixsna. 2015 wels defoltebi gaxSirdeba, xolo 2014 wlebSi gamiznuli 7.5%-iani zrdis SesaZlo Seusgakotrebul kompaniaTa xsnis SemTxvevebi Semcirdeba. ruleblobis riskma, mTavroba aiZula stimulirebis es problemebi CineTis ekonomikis gasuli ramden`mini~ paketebi SeemuSavebina zrdis gamocxadebul ime wlis naklovanebebis Sedegia. mSp-is zrdas gaumWniSnulze dasabruneblad. virvale safinanso sistemis aramdgradi dafinanseba asazrdoebda. amJamad, problemebis Semdgomi eskalaciis Tavidan asacileblad, ufro neli zrdisa da Svidi, seriozulad swrafi reformebis dro dadga. n 2015 wels mTavroba sakuTar Tavs mcireodeni sulis moTqmis saSualebas miscems da zrdis samizne indikators 7%-mde daswevs. mravali saxelmwifo moxele mxolod SesaZlebelia… SiSobs, rom samiznis mcireodeni dawevac ki Cinur sagangebo mdgomareoba cxaddeba honkongSi, da mis kompaniebsa da investorebs daafrTxobs. amave dros, quCebSi Cinuri armia ganlagdeba. es prezident si ZinpinisTvis ueWveli signalia, rom igi reformebs seriozulad ganixilavs. cvlilebaTa CineTis saxalxo respublikis Seqmnidan (1949 wels) farTo speqtri – saprocento ganakveTebis gaTavisupirvelad, erTmaneTs CineTisa da taivanis prezidenfleba, saxelmwifo monopoliaTa marTvis Serbileba, tebi xvdebian. fulis mier sazRvrebis gadakveTis kontrolis Semsubuqeba – yvelaferi ekonomikis grZelvadiani potibetis sulieri lideri dalai lama 1959 wlis Semtencialis realizebisTvis aucilebeli RonisZiebesaimon rabinoviCi: deg CineTs pirvelad ewveva vizitiT, Sansis provinbia. moklevadian periodSi es procesebi mtkivneuli aziis direqtori ciis monaxulebisas. iqneba da CineTs saxelmwifos liderobiT ganxor-

2015 mokled

da sunTqva SeikariT... CineTis haeris xarisxi SesaZloa gaumjobesdes dabali xarisxis naxSiris calkeuli tipebis moxmarebis akrZalvis gamo

†

The Economist

msoflio 2015

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika aseve seqciaSi: qurTebis gaTvla 66 naTeli wertilebi 67 mzadeba iranTan saqmis dasaWerad 68

ebolas ekonomikuri gavlena 68 afrikis valis problemebi 69 ubralod, SesaZlebelia... 69 toni elumelu: afrikapitalizmi 70

jihadizmis marSi anton la guardia

arastabilurobis zrdasTan erTad, mowodebebi intervenciisken gaizrdeba

avianT fantaziebSi „islamuri saxelmwifos“ (IS) jihadistebma maincdamainc kargad ar ician islamis adreuli didebis Jami udgaT Tu gankiTxvis dRis win bolo brZolebSi arian CarTulni. isini, vinc Sinidan siriasa da eraySi sabrZolvelad midian, sakuTar Tavs muhajirebad an `gadasaxlebulebad~ miiCneven – winaswarmetyvel muhamadis mimdevarTa msgavsad, romlebmac meqa medinaSi dasamkvidreblad miatoves. maTi bevri warumatebloba winaswarmetyvelis adreul varams waagavs, magram axla namdvili morwmuneebi win gaiWrnen, iseve rogorc maTi winaprebi meSvide saukuneSi arabeTis sazRvrebs gascdnen da daipyres yvelaferi, rac win SemoxvdaT. axla „islamuri saxelmwifos“ urwmunoTa winaaRmdeg brZolaSi `xalifatis~ lideri abu baqr albaRdadi atarebs fsevdonims, romelic winaswarmetyvelis pirvelma xalifma an `memkvidrem~ abu baqrma STaagona. ra gamovida amerikelebis winamZRolobiT Catarebuli sahaero kampaniisgan ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ winaaRmdeg? gixaroden! hadisSi moxseniebuli winaswarmetyvelebis mixedviT, samyaros dasasrulis didi brZola dabiqSi (siriaSi) gaimarTeba: muslimi mebrZolebis erTi mesamedi gaiqceva; erTi mesamedi daiRupeba; da darCenili mesamedi `konstantinopols~ (anu aSS-s) daipyrobs. aseTia absurdi, romelic ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ glamurul onlainJurnal `dabiqSia~ monaTxrobi. TumcaRa, garkveuli TvalsazrisiT, jihadistebis fantazias mravlismTqmeli paraleli moeZebneba: adreulma muslimebma ori daqanculi da gaxrwnili imperia – sparseTi da bizantia daamarcxes. ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ STambeWdavi warmateba, romelic aRmosavleT siriaSi daiwyo, Semdeg sazRvari gadalaxa da 2014 wels CrdiloeT da dasavleT erayis udidesi nawilis dapyrobiT gagrZelda, isevea damaskos da baRdadis mmarTvelTa sisastikis Sedegi, rogorc ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ mebrZolTa ostatobisa. orive mravaleTnikur saxelmwifos marTavdnen umciresobebi, romlebic ultranacionalistur baasistur ideologias misdevdnen – totalitaruls, anton la guardia : sastiks da amdenad, myifes. eraySi sadam huseini axlo aRmosavleTisa daamxo aSS-m, romelmac qveynis xelaxla gaerTianebis da afrikis redaqtori, SesaZlebloba veRar moZebna. siriaSi, baSar asadi The Economist

xelisuflebas nawilobriv imitom inarCunebs, rom mis mier qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebis miuxedavad, aSS-m ukan daixia asadis winaaRmdeg samxedro qmedebisgan da nawilobriv imitom, rom baSar asads mxars uWeren ruseTic da iranic. jihadistebi am ganadgurebul saxelmwifoebSi gadavidnen. maT mier winaswar gaTvlili barbarosoba miznad isaxavda seqtaruli siZulvilis gaRvivebas da jihadistebis, rogorc sunitebis damcvelebis, imijis damkvidrebas. 2015 wels aSS da misi mokavSireebi Zalian xSirad dadgebian im dilemis winaSe, romelic 2014 wels mesopotamiaSi hqondaT. ganze gadgnen Sida konfliqtebisgan da jihadistebs fesvis gadgmis saSualeba miscen? Tu Caerion da dadgnen muslimuri qveynebis Sida konfliqtSi CaTrevis riskis winaSe, sadac ucxoelebi mcire gavlenas Tu axdenen politikaze, maSin, roca jihadistebis samizned uTuod iqcevian xolme. arabul samyaroSi bzarebi farTovdeba. libani sunit-Siitebs Soris ganxeTqilebis im cecxlis alis boloSia, romelic grZeldeba bahreinamde da mas saudis arabeTsa da irans Soris metoqeoba aRvivebs. kidev erTi naprali politikuri islamis momxreebsa da oponentebs Sorisaa, romlis magaliTic muslimi Zmebi arian: TurqeTi da yatari upirispirdebian egviptes, saudis arabeTsa da arabTa gaerTianebul saemiroebs am qveynebis mowinaaRmdege Zalebis mesame qveynebis teritoriaze mimdinare konfliqtebSi mxardaWeris gziT. naprali Rrmavdeba mmarTvelebsa da marTulebs Sorisac, rasac Tanmimdevrulad moyveba saxalxo amboxebebi liderebis dasamxobad – dawyebuli tunisidan egviptemde, siriaSi sazareli samoqalaqo omiT damTavrebuli. erayis msgavsad, libiamac marcxi ganicada, rom dasavleTis mier tiranis damxobaSi daxmarebis Semdeg stabiluri mTavroba Seeqmna; aman SesaZloa gare Zalebis Careva gamoiwvios dasavleTis mxridan Tu ara, mezoblebis mxridan mainc. egvipte demokratiasa da muslim ZmebTan flirtSi Caeba, magram samxedro mmarTvelobis aRdgena ufro barbarosuli da sulis-

magram safrTxe is gaxlavT, rom siamayis dakargvis Semdeg, dasavleTi metismeti sifrTxilis msxverpli gaxdeba

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika

qurTuli gaTvla amberin zamani, stamboli

mravalucnobiani gantoleba

014 wels bevri miesalma, rogorc `qurTebis wels~, rogorc am mravaltanjuli, umetesad suniti muslimi xalxis swrafvas TviTmmarTvelobis damkvidrebaze eraySi, iranSi, siriasa da TurqeTSi. eraySi 5 milioni qurTi erT-erTi tomis lideris – masud barzanis xelmZRvanelobiT, ufro metad miuaxlovda mizans, vidre romeliRac misi biZaSvilTagani. didi navTobkompaniebis mier regionis navTobiT mdidari maragebis damuSavebasTan erTad, naxevraddamoukidebeli qurTistanis regionuli mTavroba welSi gasamarTad momzadebuli Canda. mezobel siriaSi qurTebma Seqmnes mTavroba sam anklavSi, TurqeTis sazRvris gaswvriv, da samiveSi damoukidebeli xelisufleba Camoayalibes. TurqeTis qurTebi ufro met politikur da kulturul uflebebs iRebdnen. Tumca qurTebis bedi katastrofulad gauaresda, roca `scenas~ jihadistebi moawydnen, romlebic Tavs `islamur saxelmwifos~ uwodeben. eraySi maT qalaqi mosuli daarbies da axlomdebare sinjarSi erayeli qurTebi damamcireblad daamarcxes. jihadistebma, siriaSi aSS-is sahaero Tavdasxmebis miuxedavad,

2015 mokled qalebs saudis arabeTSi, ufleba eqnebaT monawileoba miiRon adgilobriv arCevnebSi

msoflio 2015

Setakebebi ganagrZes yvelaze gavlenian qurT moxalise laSqarze – saxalxo Tavdacvis danayofebze. iranis qurTebze klerikaluri reJimis kontroli myarad narCundeba. aTobiT adamiani sikvdiliT dasajes separatizmis braldebiT, Tumca isini jihadistur sisastikes gadaurCnen. 2015 wels `islamuri saxelmwifos~ mier Seqmnili safrTxe gaaRrmavebs usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT erayeli qurTebis aSS-ze damokidebulebas. sanacvlod, amerikelebi maT mosTxoven daasrulon uTanxmoeba baRdadSi Siitebis mier marTul mTavrobasTan da SeTanxmdnen formulaze navTobis Semosavlebis ganawilebasTan dakavSirebiT. erayeli qurTebic gadaafaseben TavianT urTierTobebs TurqeTTan, romelic maTi udidesi savaWro partniori da mokavSirea. TurqeTis marcxi, daxmareboda `islamuri, saxelmwifos~ Tavdasxmis dros, baton barzanisTvis Sokismomgvreli aRmoCnda. TumcaRa, misi diswuli da momavali Semcvleli – neCirvan barzani, romelic anklavis premier-ministria, lobirebas gauwevs ufro axlo urTierTobas TurqeTis proislamur prezident rejep taip erdoRanTan. es barzanebs Soris daZabulobas ise gaaRvivebs, rom mis gamoyenebas SeaZlebinebs irans, romlis intervenciam jihadisturi talRis SeCerebas Seuwyo xeli. TurqeTi ufro metad Caereva erayis qurTul movlenebSi – ara mxolod im motiviT, rom aSS-is CrdilSi ar aRmoCndes. amas moyveba TanamSromloba samxedro sferoSi, romelic moicavs axali navTobsadenis usafrTxoebas, romelic arse-

SemxuTveli aRmoCnda, vidre odesme yofila hosni mubaraqis dros. saqme iqamde mivida, rom sinai kidev erTi jihadisturi samoTxe gaxda. iemeni qronikul areulobebSia gaxveuli. urTierTdakavSirebuli konfliqtebis kidev erTi kera saharis samxreTiT fiqsirdeba. erT boloSi – maliSi, frangulma intervenciam 2013 wels dedaqalaqi bamako jihadistebis xelSi Cagdebas gadaarCina. meore boloSi, afrikuli jarebi da gaero, dasavleTis mxardaWeriT, somalis kidev erTi radikaluri samxedro dajgufebis – `Sababis~ marwuxebidan gamoglejas cdiloben. Tumca am miRwevaTa SenarCuneba kvlavac saTuoa. am konfliqtur zonebs Soris sxva uamravi SemaSfoTebeli cxeli wertilia – upirvelesad, nigeria, sadac boko haramma borneos saxelmwifos teritoriaze sakuTari saxalifo daafuZna. 1960 wlis biafris omis Semdeg, pirvelad, dasavleli oficialuri pirebi SiSoben, rom nigeria – afrikis yvelaze xalxmravali qveyana, SesaZloa daiSalos. amgvarad, aSS-s da evropas mravalgzis mimarTaven samxedro daxmarebis TxovniT. avRaneTsa da eraySi dasavlurma Zalebma aCvenes, rom isini zedmiwevniT Zlierni arian safrTxis ganadgurebisas, magram cudad exerxebaT saxelmwifoebis aSeneba an aRdgena. adgilobriv mokavSireTa mxardaWeriT, iribi daxmarebis gaweva, Cveulebriv, ukeTesia, vidre pirdapiri intervencia, magram safrTxe is gaxlavT, rom siamayis dakargvis Semdeg dasavleTi metismeti sifrTxilis msx-

bul erayul sistemas Semouvlis, raTa navTobi qurTistanis velebidan pirdapir TurqeTs miawodos. siriaSi `islamuri saxelmwifos~ mebrZolebis winaaRmdeg qurTebis gamZleoba saqmes miiyvans ufro axlo, SesaZloa uxmauro kavSiramde saxalxo Tavdacvis danayofebsa da aSS-s Soris, romelic TurqeTis winaaRmdegobebs `wauyruebs~. TurqeTi, siriaSi formirebis etapze myofi qurTuli warmonaqmniT, ukiduresadaa SeSfoTebuli da misi izolireba scada. es imitom, rom saxalxo Tavdacvis danayofebi da misi politikuri ganStoeba – `demokratiuli erTobis partia~, mibmulia kidev erT qurTul jgufze – `qurTistanis muSaTa partiaze~ (PKK), romelic TurqeTis SigniT TviTmmarTvelobis mosapoveblad 30-wlian SeiaraRebul kampanias awarmoebs. qurTistanis muSaTa partia kvlav imuqreba cecxlis Sewyvetis SeTanxmebis dasrulebiT, romelic samSvidobo molaparakebebs umagrebs zurgs – dapatimrebul lider abdula ojalansa da ankaras mTavrobas Soris. amis mizezi sirieli Zmebis mimarT TurqeTis mtrobaa. mSvidoba qurTebTan gadamwyvetia erdoRanis gegmebisTvis, raTa maTi guli moigos sakonstitucio cvlilebebisTvis, romelic prezidentis Zalauflebas gazrdida. 2015 wels qurTebi ecdebian gaerTiandnen `islamuri saxelmwifos~ winaaRmdeg, magram Rrmad fesvgadgmul tomobriobas regionuli Zalebi kvlav gamoiyeneben. n amberin zamani: TurqeTis korespondenti The Economist

verpli gaxdeba. siriaSi meamboxeebis mTavari Zalebis dasaxmareblad adreul intervencias SesaZloa ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ usiamovno brendis – jihadizmis aRzevebis SeCereba mohyoloda. aSS-is omi, `daesustebina da sabolood gaenadgurebina islamuri saxelmwifo~, kargad ar daiwyo. sahaero dabombvebis miuxedavad, jihadistebi ieriSs agrZelebdnen. droTa ganmavlobaSi, amerikuli samxedro qmedeba albaT SeaCerebs ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ ieriSs. magram amis gasakeTeblad, aSS-s mouwevs uari Tqvas sakuTar politikaze, romelic konfliqtis zonebSi saxmeleTo Zalebis gadasrolisgan Tavis aridebas gulisxmobs, risTvisac specdaniSnulebis Zalebi unda ganalagos erayis sabrZolo danayofebis gasaZliereblad da ufro zust sahaero dartymebs (gansakuTrebiT – urbanuli brZolebis xelCarTul SetakebebSi) mimarTos. Tu ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ dasusteba SesaZlebelia, misi ganadgureba ufro rTuli iqneba, da regionis politikis transformacias moiTxovs, aseve – aSS-is mxridan moTminebisunarian liderobas metoqeebis marTvis TvalsazrisiT. iranTan atomurma garigebam SesaZloa Seasustos daZabuloba, magram Tu momavalSi aSS ganixileba rogorc Siitebis mokavSire, es didad ver Caacxrobs sunitebis gaborotebas, rac ìslamuri saxelmwifos~ ideas kvebavs. da 2015 wels didi SekiTxva darCeba: ra vuyoT siriis prezidents – baton asads? n

msoflio 2015

yvelaferi cudad ar aris maqs rodenbeqi, qairo

axlo aRmosavleTis zogierT nawilSi, zogadad, yvelaferi kargadaa

xlo aRmosavleTs 2014 wels mZime periodi hqonda: ara mxolod Zaladoba gaxSirda libiidan Razamde, iemenamde, erayamde, siriamde da ufro Sorsac... kidev ufro da ufro Sokismomgvreli sisastikis gamovlena metyvelebs gavrcelebul avadmyofobaze, barbarosobisken svlaze, rac regionis momavals kargs arafers uqadis. Tumca, axlo aRmosavleTSic ki, iSviaTad aris cudi situacia erTdroulad yvelgan. uamrav adgilas yvelaferi kargadaa da mosalodnelia, rom ase gagrZeldeba. faqtobrivad, zogierTis savalalo mdgomareoba sxvaTa winsvlas uwyobs xels. miuxedavad imisa, rom sparseTis yuris saemiroebis mmarTvelebi didxans da mZimed Sromobdnen, raTa qalaq-saxelmwifoebi cxovrebisa da muSaobisTvis ukeTes adgilebad gadaeqciaT, sxva regionul xelisufalTa marcxma aseve ganapiroba dubais fenomenaluri warmateba. roca saudis arabeTi an irani ufro met disidentebs moisvris xolme cixeSi, roca indoeTi an pakistani bizness zedmet gadasaxadebs uwesebs, roca omebi da revoluciebi atydeba sadme axlos, samewarmeo talanti da kapitali dubais miawydeba xolme. gasakviri ar aris, rom saemiroebSi bumia. binebis fasebi, msoflio finansuri krizisis dros TiTqmis gakotrebul dubaiSi 2011 wlis Sua periodidan praqtikulad gaormagda. uZviresi infrastruqturis proeqtebi, rogorebicaa Tanamedrove metro da giganturi axali aeroporti, axla brZnul investiciad da ara ampartavnobad gamoiyureba. dubais mkvidri mosaxleoba, romelmac 2.2 milioni Seadgina 2014 wels (aq ar Sedis kidev milioni yoveldRiuri mgzavri, turisti da sxva droebiTi vizitorebi), 2020 wlisTvis savaraudod 50%-iT gaizrdeba. saerTaSoriso savaluto fonds miaCnia, rom amave periodSi saemiroebis mSp-is zrda SesaZloa 5.5%-s gautoldes. es seriozulad JRers. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom amdeni regionuli biznesi ukve eyrdnoba dubais, rogorc korporaciul bazas da momsaxurebis centrs, kritikuli zRvari SesaZloa miRweulia da momavali zrda SeiZleba gare moTxovnam ki ara, Sida energiam asazrdoos. asec rom iyos, 2015 weli savaraudod kidev erT stimuls moitans. dubai didi xania damxmare ofisi+hipermarketis funqcias asrulebs sanqciebiT SezRuduli iranisTvis. igi kargad isargeblebs, Tuki didi xnis nanatri atomuri xelSekruleba `islamur respublikas~ gaaTavisuflebs, raTa sakuTari udidesi potencialis nawilis realizeba mainc ganaxorcielos.

israelis didi kedeli israeli kidev erTi adgilia, romelic regionul tendencias ebrZvis. maSin, roca dubai regionSi arsebul fulsa da saukeTeso adamianur resurss isrutavs, israeli fons Tavis irgvliv Semovlebuli „kedlis“ wyalobiT gadis. garda mZime da ulmobeli, Tumca Cveulebriv, xanmokle omebisa bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi (libani 2006 wels, Raza 2009 da 2014 wlebSi), ebrauli saxelmwifo arsebiTad ugulebelyofs samezoblos: amindis rukebi ebraul gazeTebSi

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika gviCvenebs londons, maiamis, moskovsa da niu-iorks, magram ara qairos an baRdads. 2010 wels – mas Semdeg, rac ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizacias SeuerTda, israelma danarCeni mdidari qveynebi bevr sferoSi dajabna. mSp erT sulze 2013 wels italiisas gautolda. aTwleulebis manZilze ucxour daxmarebaze damokidebulebis Semdeg, israels axla jansaRi savaWro balansi da 80 miliard dolaramde investiciebis maragi aqvs sazRvargareT. energodamokidebulebac ukve warsulis Temaa: israelma swrafad moaxerxa uxvi zRvis Selfze mdebare gazis maragebis gamoyeneba, rac ukve eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebis umTavresi wyaroa. amasobaSi, jadosnuri wre, romelic maRali donis universitetebs, Zlier samTavrobo mxardaWeras da dinamikur mewarmeobas moicavs, iwvevs mdgrad inovaciurobas da warmatebas maRali teqnologiebis seqtorSi. es naTlad gamoCnda 2014 wels `intelis~ gadawyvetilebaSi, rom Tavisi isedac didi sawarmoo saqmianoba israelSi damatebiT 6 miliardi dolaris Rirebulebis mikroCipebis qarxniT gaefarTovebina. warmatebis naklebad gamokveTili magaliTebic arsebobs: gasuli aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi navTobze maRali fasebis SenarCunebam asazrdoa grZelvadiani bumi infrastruqturul proeqtebze iseT qveynebSi, rogorebicaa saudis arabeTi, yatari da alJiri. qaosisgan Sors myofi maroko stabilurad izrdeboda. egvipteSic ki, sadac bolodroindelma mRelvarebam investiciebi Seamcira, politikuri stabilurobis aRdgenisTanave ekonomikuri zrda mosalodnelia – egviptis aqciebis bazarma mogvca niSani, Tu ra gvelis momavalSi, roca 2014 wlis seqtemberSi, 15-Tviani stabiluri zrdis Semdeg, umaRles niSnuls miaRwia. magram vinaidan es axlo aRmosavleTia, prognozireba sifrTxiles moiTxovs. navTobze damokidebul ekonomikebs SesaZloa male ufro rTuli Jami daudgeT; maTgan udidess – saudis arabeTs savaraudod biujetis Sekveca mouwevs, Tu fasi erT barelze 84 dolarze iafi darCeba. iseve, rogorc warsulSi, dubais axlandeli `buSti~ SesaZloa gaskdes, Tuki sixarbe kvlav daabrmavebs saR gansjas da mTavroba damarcxdeba iseTi problemebis mogvarebaSi, rogoricaa mkacri da SerCeviTi sasamarTlo sistema. israeli unda ufrTxildes sakuTar TviTkmayofilebas. garSemo arsebulma areulobam israels droebiT mouxsna wnexi, rac imas ukavSirdeboda, rom saomar mdgomareobaSi myof qveyanas amavdroulad mosaxleobis yvela jgufis ekonomikur ganviTarebazec unda ezruna: misma 6-ma milionma bednierma ebraelma SeuZlebelia usasrulod marTos igive an kidev ufro didi raodenobis ubeduri palestinelebi. n

2015 mokled afrikaSi pirveli – tanJerkasablankas 350 km-iani (220 mili) swrafmavali rkinigzis mSenebloba dasasruls uaxlovdeba

maqs rodenbeqi: Sua aRmosavleTis korespondenti The Economist

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika

msoflio 2015

maRali fsonebi iranSi oliver ogasti, Teirani

movrigdeT Tu ara?

asavlel investorebs dabejiTebiT surT iranSi dabruneba. 2014 wlis meore naxevarSi, bevri maTgani iransa da ucxoelebs Soris deklarirebuli samoqalaqo birTvuli programis irgvliv mimdinare molaparakebebisas garRvevis molodinSi, dedaqalaq Teirans ewvia. mkacrma dasavlurma sanqciebma, romelic miznad isaxavda birTvuli iaraRis ganviTarebis mimarTulebiT iranis dabrkolebas, daaziana qveynis ekonomika da igi kapitals mowyurebuli datova. umuSevroba da inflacia ukontrolo gaxda. xelfasebi da gacvliTi kursi naxevarze metad daeca 2011 wlis Semdeg. aSS-is mTavrobis gaTvlebiT, mSp meoTxediT ufro dabalia, vidre is sanqciebis ararsebobis SemTxvevaSi iqneboda. irani mowyvetilia ara mxolod ucxour bazrebs, aramed saerTaSoriso finansur sistemasac. sami wlis manZilze erT viza-baraTsac ki ar gauvlia aparatebSi. navTobis eqsporti daaxloebiT ganaxevrda. Tu sanqciebi moixsna, ekonomika SesamCnevad unda gaumjobesdes. oficialuri pirebi prognozireben, rom navTobis eqsporti SesaZloa swarafad gaormagdes. saavtomobilo industriac aseve male unda gajansaRdes. igi mSp-is

2015 mokled arabeTis gaerTianebuli saemiroebis kosmosuri programa Tavis pirvel satelitur obieqts asrulebs

jonaTan rozenTali: afrikis redaqtori The Economist

10%-s gamoimuSavebda, magram bolo sami wlis ganmavlobaSi 70%-iT Semcirda, radgan ucxour komponentebs veRar moipovebs. seqtemberSi, aSS-is mTavarma momlaparakebelma – vendi Sermanma ganacxada: `unda giTxraT, rom rogorc ki msxvil sanqciebs SevaCerebT, rac molaparakebis adreul etapzeve moxdeba, msoflio irans miawydeba~. molaparakebebSi CarTulma qveynebma (irani, germania da gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos xuTi wevri) sakuTar Tavs saboloo SeTanxmebis miRwevis vadad 2014 wlis 24 noemberi dauweses, romelic mkacri SezRudvis sanacvlod savaraudo birTvul programaze dawesebul sanqciebs moxsnida. Tu molaparakebebi Cavarda, momaval investorebs imedi 2015 wlis jer kidev dasawyisamde gaucruvdebaT. Tu SeTanxmeba Sedgeba, investorebs ori ram daabrkolebT: pirveli – teqnikuri mizezebis gamo dauyovnebliv yvela sanqciis moxsna ar aris SesaZlebeli, da isini SeiZleba Tavidanac SemoiRon, Tu irani valdebulebebTan dakavSirebiT sityvas gatexs. meorec – iranis yvela ekonomikuri problema rodi iRebs saTaves sanqciebidan. reformebic aris saWiro, gansakuTrebiT – finansebisa da Sromis bazris sferoSi. Tumca, sanqciebis moxsna Seamsubuqebda wnexs mTavrobaze, rom aseTi mtkivneuli nabiji gadadgas.

ebolas grZeli `memkvidreoba~ jonaTan rozenTali

xangrZlivi ziani sam Crdiloafrikul qveyanaSi

emTxveviTi ar aris, rom sami qveyana, sadac 2014 wels ebolas daavadeba ukontrolo gaxda, msoflios uRaribesi saxelmwifoebia. liberia da siera leone jer kidev ibrZodnen samoqalaqo omebis Sedegebis dasaZlevad, romlebmac maTi ekonomika gaanadgura, gvineaSi destabilizacia gamoiwvia da qveynebis jandacvis sistemebi mospo. ebolas afeTqebamde liberias 200 eqimze naklebi hyavda, romlebic 4 milionze met adamians emsaxurebodnen. modelebi, romlebic daavadebis gavrcelebis prognozirebas cdiloben, imis mixedviT gansxvavdebian, Tu ra saxis daSvebebs akeTeben. mTavari cvladebi, rogoricaa is, Tu ramdeni adamiani inficirdeba TiToeuli daavadebulisgan, TiTqmis gamocanad rCeba. dainficirebulTa ricxvic ki ucnobia. eqimebs miaCniaT, rom es raodenoba, oficialur monacemTan SedarebiT, ornaxevarjer meti SeiZleba iyos. mocemuli gaurkvevloba aseve asaxulia prog-

momxmareblebis panikuri gaqcevis molodinSi

ekonomikis garda, aSS-sa da mis mokavSireebTan miRweuli xelSekruleba udidesi mniSvnelobis cvlilebas moutanda irans, bolo 35 wlis ganmavlobaSi `Cumi omi~ rom gamoucxada qveyanas, romelsac `did satanas~ uwodebs. magram Tu molaparakebebi Cavarda, kompromisis mowinaaRmdegeebi yvela mxares Tavs daculad igrZnoben. sanqciebi gaizrdeba da iranis birTvul SesaZleblobebze samxedro Tavdasxma, romelic molaparakebebis dros dayovnebulia, kidev erTxel gaxdeba arCevani politikosebisTvis. Tavis mxriv, irani ufro agresiuli gaxdeba da regionul sakiTxebSi TanamSromlobas Tavs aaridebs, maSin roca islamisti mebrZolebi mezobel eraysa da siriaSi yvela CarTuli qveynis interesebs emuqrebian. didi SesaZlebloba xelidan iqneboda gaSvebuli. n oliver ogasti: axlo aRmosavleTisa da afrikis korespondenti The Economist

nozebSi savaraudo ekonomikuri zaralis Sesaxeb. msoflio banki Tavis angariSs or scenarze amyarebs: `dabali gavlenis~ versia, romlis mixedviTac avadmyofoba swrafad Cacxreba, da `maRali gavlenis~, romlis mixedviTac misi Cacxroba mxolod nela mimdinareobs da regionSi vrceldeba. dasavleT afrikisTvis am ori scenaris mixedviT, zarali, droTa ganmavlobaSi, 1.6 miliardi dolaridan 25 miliard dolaramde meryeobs. SedarebisTvis, liberiis ekonomika 2 miliard dolarze naklebs gamoimuSavebs weliwadSi, xolo siera leone – 5 miliard dolarze naklebs. am Sefasebebis Tanaxmad, daavadeba Zalian ar vrceldeba dasavleT afrikis teritoriaze. Tu gavrcelda, rogorc msoflio banki miiCnevs, maSin 2015 wlis bolos zarali 32 miliard dolars gadaaWarbebs. ufro grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi, savaraudod zarali kidev ufro didi iqneba, xolo Sedegi – savalalo. ebolas pirvel msxverplTa Soris jandacvis muSakebi arian. bevri maTgani, vinc avad ar xdeba, qveyanas tovebs. aRricxvis mixedviT, liberiaSi, infeqciis gavrcelebidan ramdenime kviraSi, 50-ze naklebi adgilobrivi eqimi imyofeboda postze. isedac myife jandacvis sistemebis dasustebiT, ebola aTasobiT adamians Seiwiravs malariis, diareis da Sidsis Sedegad. investorebi da niWieri ucxoelebi dazaralebul qveynebs moeridebian, rac am ukanasknelT unarebs da kapitals gamoaclis xelidan. afrikis sami uRaribesi qveyana isev Raribi iqneba. n

moaxloebuli afrikuli valis krizisi riCard volkeri Richard Walker

valebi SemaSfoTeblad grovdeba

frikas yvelaze swrafad mzardi ekonomika aqvs planetis kontinentebs Soris. xolo is, rac yvelaferze swrafad izrdeboda, valia – personaluri, korporaciuli da saxelmwifo. 2015 wels, afrikisa da misi mxardamWerebis SeSfoTebis sagani valebis SesaZlo ukontrolo zrda gaxdeba. msoflios ramdenime yvelaze swrafad mzardi ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis mier gamoSvebul suverenul obligaciebs, romlebic xSirad adgilobriv valutaSia denominirebuli, mowyurebuli investorebi daitaceben – omahadan ciurixamde. 2014 wels, iseTma qveynebma, rogorebicaa senegali, kot d’ivuari (mTavrobis valis defoltidan 5 welze naklebi drois Semdeg) da zambia, miliardi dolaris Rirebulebis obligaciebi ganaTavses da yvela gamoSvebaze Warbi moTxovna hqondaT. roca keniam rekordulad gayida 2 miliardi dolari valSi, moTxovna nominalze oTxjer meti iyo. es samTavrobo kreditebi realurad masiuri fsonebia imaze, rom afrikuli zrda kvlav gagrZeldeba. win kidev meti fsonia, sanam ambavi sabolood ar dasruldeba – ganasac ki, romelic Rrmadaa Cafluli valebSi da kontinentze yvelaze cudi valuta aqvs, ar gasWirvebia damatebiT miliardi dolaris moculobis evroSi denominirebuli valis aReba 2014 wels. afrikuli `sakredito gancxroma~, romelic 2007 wels daiwyo da romelsac asazrdoebda investorebis wyurvili, mogeba mieRoT postkrizisuli ekonomikebidan, rogorc Cans gagrZeldeba, sanam danarCen msoflioSi saprocento ganakveTebi da mogeba investiciebze normalizebas ar daiwyebs. kontinenti Rrmad iyo valebSi Cafluli adrec da arsebobs safrTxe, rom axlac igive ganmeordes. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mixedviT, 2009 wels mTelma saharis samxreTiT mdebare afrikam 5 miliard dolarze naklebi Seagrova obligaciebis gamoSvebis gziT, kerZo da saxelmwifo obligaciebis CaTvliT. 2013 wlisTvis es maCvenebeli gaizarda 14 miliard dolaramde, xolo 2014 wels, cifri mTlianobaSi daaxloebiT 20 miliard dolars miaRwevs. afrikis mTliani valis Sefardeba mSp-sTan, romelic 30%-ze metad Semcirda, 2008 wels (valebis patiebisa da nedleulze maRali fasebis wyalobiT) dabali iyo, radgan mSp swrafad izrdeboda. Tumca zogierT qveyanaSi vali kvlav izdeba da mSp-is 70%-s an ufro maRal niSnuls uaxlovdeba.

axla sxva droa, Tumca uaresic SeiZleba yofiliyo afrika oficialuri kreditorebisgan sesxulobda xolme: mTavroba, msoflio banki, afrikis ganviTarebis banki da saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi. axla misi sesxebis masazrdoebeli kerZo wyaroebia (ix. grafa). samTavrobo sesxebi da `daxmareba~ `modidan gadavida~. samagierod, kerZo investorebi fsons afrikis momaval gadaxdisunarianobaze axorcieleben, xolo saobligacio fondebi, kerZo saaqcio kapitali da individualuri investorebi (afrikelebis CaTv-

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika

msoflio 2015

liT) mTavrobis vals yiduloben. msxvili afrikuli kompaniebis mier gamoSvebuli kerZo vali mTlian moculobas kidev ufro zrdis; aseve, adgili hqonda eTiopiis, mozambikisa da nigeriis mier msxvili korporaciuli obligaciebis gamoSvebas – obligaciebis tradiciul gamomSveb samxreT afrikasTan erTad. roca ganviTarebad ekonomikebSi saprocento ganakveTebi da grZelvadian obligaciebze mogeba gaizrdeba – is, rac 2015 wlidan afrikis zogierT qveyanaSi aucileblad moxdeba – afrikas kerZo kreditorebi naklebi mowyalebiT Sexedaven. albaT isini ufro maRal mogebas moiTxoven, vidre axla afrikis mTavroba da kerZo fasiani qaRaldebi iZleva, Tu saerTod yvelaferze uari ar Tqves. bevri ram imaze iqneba damokidebuli, Tu ramdenad jansaRad gamoiyureba afrikis mTavrobis finansebi. niSnebi kargi ar aris: maSin, roca saharis samxreTiT mdebare afrikas regionuli biujetis proficiti hqonda gasuli aTwleulis umetesi nawilis ganmavlobaSi, es axla regionul deficitad Semotrialda, radganac mTavrobam uxvad daxarja xelfasebze, subsidiebsa da infrastruqturaze – miuxedavad imisa, rom samomxmareblo fasebi da sagadasaxado Semosavlebi daeca. zogierT qveyanas, rogorebicaa gana da tanzania, axla 10%-ze maRali deficiti aqvs.

2015 mokled kot d’ivuari pirveli saprezidento arCevnebisTvis emzadeba – 2010 wlis gamokiTxvis Semdeg, romelmac aCvena, rom qveyana qaosSia

momqancveli vali saharis samxreTiT mdebare afrikis saSualo da grZelvadiani vali, $ mlrd

200

150

davalianeba samTavrobo kreditorebis mimarT

100

davalianeba kerZo kreditorebis mimarT

0 2000

09 10 11 12 13 14* 15* *orignozis wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit

msoflios valis investorebi mzad arian Seeguon am cifrebs imdenad, ramdenadac sxvagan sainvesticio SesaZleblobebi TiTqmis nulis tolia. albaT es situacia 2015 wels ar Seicvleba. aseve SesaZloa, afrikis qveynebis mTavrobebis xarjva moulodnelad Semcirdes, xolo nedleulis fasebi, romelTac afrika eyrdnoba, savaraudod kvlav gaizrdeba. Tumca nu iqnebiT romeliRac am movlenis imedad. n mxolod SesaZlebelia… siriaSi qimiuri iaraRis dasamzadebeli obieqtebi iketeba, Tu msurveli kontraqtori gamoinaxeba. samxreT afrikis respublikaSi zogierTi profkavSiri wyvets grZelvadian alianss afrikis nacionalur kongresTan da muSaTa partias qmnis. kongoSi iwyeba muSaoba ingas did kaSxalze (Grand Inga Dam), romelic msoflioSi udidesi hidroeleqtro proeqti iqneba.

riCard volkeri: Tavisufali korespondenti

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika

msoflio 2015

afrokapitalizmis aRzeveba

„mewarmeebi SeZleben afrikis transformacias“, – ambobs toni elumelu, Heirs Holdingsis Tavmjdomare da Tony Elumelu Foundation-is damfuZnebeli

axalgazrda mewarmeebi da isini, visac mewarmeebi STaagoneben, afrikis aRmavlobis mamoZravebeli Zalaa

015 wels afrikeli mewarme globalur asparezze gamova, ramdenadac axali Taoba msoflios imas uCvenebs, rac afrikaSi biznesSi CarTulebma ukve didi xania vicodiT: is, rom Cveni kontinenti ramdenime yvelaze saintereso da inovaciuri samewarmeo niWis samSobloa. Tanamedrove mobiluri gadaxdebis sistemebiT dawyebuli, soflis meurneobis dazRvevis axali modelebiT damTavrebuli, Cven mowme varT, rogor axorcielebs mewarmeoba afrikis gardaqmnas. magram afrikaSi, mxolod biznesis zrda ar aris sruli istoria. igi albaT yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovani nawilic ki ar gaxlavT. mewarmeoba mniSvnelovani gansakuTrebiT sazogadoebis transformirebis potencialis TvalsazrisiTaa. saukuneebis ganmavlobaSi, kontinenti gaRaribebuli iyo koloniuri Zalebis mier nedleulis mopovebis gamo. afrikas ar gaaCnda unari, gamoemuSavebina an SeenarCunebina sakuTari simdidre, radgan iZulebuli gaxldaT afrikuli resursebiT warmoebuli saboloo produqti maRal fasad SeeZina. aseve, mas ar gaaCnda infrastruqtura, garda eqsportis gasatanad saWiro gzebisa da portebisa. Tu afrikas surs SeuZlebeli SeZlos, igi, upirvelesad, TviTkmari unda gaxdes, da am procesSi kerZo seqtori sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania. warmoidgineT igive kontinenti, romelic savsea biznesebiT, romelTac SeuZliaT gadaamuSaon nedli navTobi benzinad, kakaos filebi Sokoladad da bambis fTilebi – qsovilad, da yvelaferi es ise, rom simdidris sazRvargareT gagzavnis nacvlad, saboloo produqtis damatebuli Rirebuleba SeinarCunon. termini `afrokapitalizmi~kerZo investiciebis socialur simdidred gardaqmnis process aRwers. ramdenadac adgilobrivi garemos Tandayolili codnis wyalobiT, adgilobrivi biznesebi produqciisa da momsaxurebis Seqmnisas socialur Tu ekonomikur moTxovnebs pasuxoben, maT SeuZliaT mniSvnelovan infrastruqturul sferoebSi, rogorebicaa sagzao transporti da eleqtroenergiis gamomuSaveba, kerZo kapitali moizidon. da maT SeuZliaT samuSao adgilebi Seqmnan afrikelebisTvis, rac Tavis mxriv, Seqmnis afrikul saSualo klass – afrikeli momxmareblis axal Taobas. samewarmeo energias da gamomgoneblobas imis potencialic gaaCnia, rom socialur problemebs axleburi gzebiT gaumklavdes. aseTi meTodebis Sorsmimavali gavlenis gaTvaliswinebiT, Cven 100 milion dolars mivawvdiT 10 000 mewarmes mTels afrikaSi toni elumelus mewarmeobis programis saSualebiT, romelic male daiwyeba. SesaZleblobebze wvdomis demokratizebis gziT da afrikis axalgazrda mosaxleobis niWis realizaciaze aqcentirebiT, es programa miznad isaxavs `iRblis institucionalizacias~, romelic nebismieri mewarmeobis warmatebisTvis mTavari faqtoria.

axalgazrda mewarmeebi da isini, visac mewarmeebi STaagoneben, afrikis aRmavlobis mamoZravebeli Zalaa. seriulma mewarmem nigeriidan – simdul Sagaiam Tavisi pirveli biznesi lagosSi, fasian gzebze sareklamo sivrcis aTvisebiT aawyo, ris Semdegac kompania gayida da nigeriis wamyvani onlainmaRazia `konga~ daafuZna. batonma Sagaiam danerga inovaciebi, romlebmac onlaingadaxdebisa da binamde mitanis safosto momsaxurebis sferoSi nigeriis SezRuduli SesaZleblobebi daZlia. kenielma teqnologiurma mewarmem maik maCariam Seven Seas Technology panafrikul kompaniad gardaqmna da operireba daiwyo aRmosavleT, dasavleT da samxreT afrikaSi. movaWreebs ufro tradiciuli globaluri sainformacio teqnologiebis bazrebidan, igi jabnis, xolo SarSan portugaliuri teqnologiuri kompania SeiZina, raTa maT programirebasa da momsaxurebaze wvdoma moepovebina. aseve ar dagvaviwydes funke okpeke, romelmac warmatebuli kariera miatova niuiorkis telekomis biznesSi, raTa Tavisi kompaniis MainOne-is saSualebiT portugaliidan dasavleT afrikamde 7000 km-iani (4350 mili) optikur-boWkovani wyalqveSa kabelis mSeneblobas daxmareboda. amis Sedegad gazrdilma gamtarunarianobam mravalmxrivi ekonomikuri gavlena moaxdina mTels regionze.

gza biznesis miRma aseTi mewarmeebis dapireba biznesareals bevrad Sors scdeba. maT aqvT potenciali, rom samSobloSi liderobis transformacia SeZlon. isini ukve CaerTnen diskusiaSi afrikis politikur liderebTan politikis sakiTxebze, gansakuTrebiT ki lobireben im procesebis mowesrigebas, romlebic biznesis ufro swrafad dawyebis SesaZleblobas uzrunvelyofs. maTi gavlena SesaZloa afrikis miRmac gavrceldes. agvistoSi, vaSingtonSi gamarTul amerika-afrikis samitze, 21 wlis teqnologiurma mewarmem takunda Cigonzom prezident baraq obamas sanqciebis gadaxedvis piroba daadebina, mas Semdeg rac igi zimbabvel mewarmeebze amerikuli sanqciebis negatiuri zegavlenis Temaze gamoiwvia. am dRes batonma Cigonzom afrikeli mewarmis kardinalurad axali potenciali gamoavlina. afrikeli mewarmeebi mTavar rols Seasruleben kerZo dovlaTisa da sazogadoebrivi moTxovnilebisTvis Sesabamisobis misaniWeblad. isini afrokapitalizmis mTavar princips daamtkiceben: rom aucilebelicaa da SesaZlebelic mewarmeebisa da sazogadoebis erTdrouli gamdidreba. ekonomikuri zrdis transformaciuli gavlena, romelsac biZgs aZlevs srulad datvirTuli socialurad Segnebuli mewarmeTa klasi, gadaCrdilavs afrikis ganviTarebis uwindel, daxmarebaze orientirebuli midgomiT miRweul Sedegebs. n

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso Cveni 2014 wlis cxrili 72 ganviTarebis axali miznebis dasaxva 73 hilari rodem qlinToni 74 iogas zrda 75 msoflio Tasebis trio 75

atomuri omis aCrdili 76 nacionalizmi dabrunda 77 bil geiTsi: `martivi gadawyvetilebebi bevr sicocxles ixsnis~ 78

cvlilebebis weliwadis monaxazi / Charting a year of change 80 mosaxleobis piramidam forma icvala 82

mosazreba klimatze jon parkeri

qveynebi TiTqosda klimatis xelSekrulebas daamtkiceben

2015 mokled udidesi globaluri religiaTSorisi Sexvedra – msoflio religiebis parlamenti, solt leiq siTiSi ikribeba

009 wlis bolos kopenhagenSi globaluri klimatis xelSekrulebis SesaTanxmeblad gamoCenili Zalisxmeva Caflavda. maSin erT-erTi saqvelmoqmedo organizaciis xelmZRvanelma qalaqi aRwera, rogorc `klimaturi danaSaulis adgili~, sadac damnaSave mamakacebi da qalebi aeroportisken garbian. eqvsi wlis Semdeg mTavrobebi `danaSaulis adgils~ daubrundebian – sul mcire, metaforulad – roca isini klimatis xelSekrulebis SesaTanxmeblad kidev erTxel Seikribebian parizSi. amjerad isini kinklaobiT mivlen SeTanxmebamde. saeWvoa, rom es an naxSirbadis emisiis zrdis SezRudvis TvalsazrisiT raimes Secvlis an kopenhagenSi gaCenil da gacruebul imedebs gaamarTlebs. 2009 wlis Semdeg bevri ram Seicvala. am cvlilebebis didi nawili SeTanxmebis miRwevas ramdenadme ufro SesaZlebels xdis. qveynebis saTaveSi liderebis axali Taoba movida. marTlac, mxolod SeerTebuli Statebis prezidenti baraq obama da germaniis kancleri angela merkeli rCebian, rogorc udidesi damabinZurebeli qveynebis liderebi. axali Taoba marTavs msoflios, sadac 2009 wlis Semdeg saTburis gazebis gamoyofa uzomod gaizarda. 2015 wels, pirvelad milioni wlis ganmavlobaSi, atmosferoSi naxSirbadis orJangis saSualo wliuri koncentracia 400 nawilaks gadaaWarbebs yovel milionze. rogorc klimatis specialistebis didi nawili miiCnevs, miuxedavad imisa, rom globaluri zedapiris temperatura bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi bevriT ar gazrdila, saTburis gazebis matebis Sedegad war-

moSobili damangreveli da Seuqcevadi ziani izrdeba. qveynebis umravlesobaSi (Tumca, ara aSS-Si) klimatis cvlileba mniSvnelovan safrTxed ganixileba. msoflio masStabiT haeris dabinZureba naadrevi sikvdilis udidesi mizezi gaxda. politikosebic, biznesis, finansebisa da bazrebis mxridan ganxorcielebul mzard zemoqmedebas ganicdian. 2014 wels gamoqveynebulma orma didma angariSma (erTi eqsprezidentebis, saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebisa da ekonomistebis mier dakompleqtebuli saerTaSoriso jgufis, xolo meore aSS-is mTavari aRmasrulebeli pirebisa da xazinis yofili mdivnebis mier) aCvena gadawyvetilebis mimRebTa damokidebulebis arsebiTi Secvla da maT mier imis aRiareba, rom klimatis cvlilebas mixedva sWirdeba. es sazrunavi zogierT bazarzec aisaxa. magaliTad, korporaciuli mwvane fasiani qaRaldebis bazari, romelic garemosdacviT RonisZiebebSi investiciebis Casadebad, kompaniebisTvis kapitalis bazridan saxsrebs izidavs, 2015 wels savaraudod 100 miliard aSS dolars miaRwevs; 2009 wels is TiTqmis ar arsebobda. amis Sedegad, klimatis xelSekrulebis misaRwevad politika Seicvala. 2009 wels sami udidesi damabinZurebeli qveynidan (SeerTebuli Statebi, CineTi da indoeTi) aseTi nabijisTvis arcerTi iyo mzad. axla SesaZloa, isini mzad arian. aSS-is senati xelSekrulebis ratifikacias ar ganaxorcielebs – igi amas arasodes apirebda – magram obamas administraciis mier gatarebulma RonisZiebebma (rogoricaa energosadgurebis mier naxSirbadis gamoyofis SezRudva) dagvarwmuna, rom SeerTebuli Statebi SesaZloa raime mosalodnel klimatis xelSekrulebis pirobebs ise daemorCilos, rogorc gaeros sazRvao samarTals emorCileba, romlis rat-

jon parkeri: garemos dacvis redaqtori, The Economist

72 s

2015 mokled

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso

aSS, yinulis msxvrevis xmis fonze, kanadaSi arqtikuli sabWos Tavmjdomare xdeba

ifikaciac ar ganuxorcielebia. CineTSi, prezidentma si zinpingma garemos dabinZurebasTan brZola prioritetulad gamoacxada. igi ase Sidapolitikuri mizezebis gamo moiqca, magram SesaZloa xelSekrulebis dasamtkiceblad mzad iyos, im nabijebis gaTvaliswinebiT, romelTa gadadgmasac yvela SemTxvevaSi apirebda. indoeTi globaluri klimatis sakiTxebTan mimarTebaSi didi xania frTxilia, da mosalodnelia, rom aseTic darCeba. mizezi imis gasafiqreblad, rom cvlilebebisTvis isic mzadaa, premier-ministri narendra modia, romelic gujaraTis premierministris postze mwvane pioneris msgavs rolSi mogvevlina. simarTlea isic, rom zogi ram ucvleli darCa. kopenhagenis molaparakebebi ZiriTadad mdidar da Rarib qveynebs Soris arsebuli uTanxmoebis gamo Caflavda. Raribi qveynebi amtkicebdnen, rom radgan mdidrebi naxSirbadis emisiaSi ufro metad iyvnen damnaSave, maT meti pasuxismgebloba ekisrebodaT da amdenad, Raribi qveynebisTvis damatebiT unda gadaexadaT saTburis gazebis Sesamcireblad. maTi moTxovnebi gaizrdeba. mdidrebma Raribebs upasuxes, rom isini bevrs akeTebdnen, magram ganviTarebad qveynebs, rogorc axali emisiis umetesobis wyaros, Tavadac metis gakeTeba marTebdaT. imis garkveuli niSnebi arsebobs, rom es uTanxmoeba Semcirda. metic

– evrokavSiri, romelsac uyvars klimatis cvlilebaTa molaparakebebis dros sakuTari Tavis liderad ganxilva, bolodroindeli mwvane ambiciebis gamoxatvisgan Tavs Seikavebs.

araferze ukeTesi klimatis axali xelSekruleba am sirTuleebs asaxavs. tradiciuli xelSekrulebisgan gansxvavebiT, romlis drosac qveynebi saerTo valdebulebebs aweren xels da pirobas deben, rom saerTo miznebs Seasruleben, axali SeTanxmeba maT uflebas miscems sakuTari miznebi TviTon Camoayalibon, dasaxuli prioritetebis regularul gadaxedvaze SeTanxmdnen (rac saerTaSoriso investorebs imis ndobas aRuZravs, rom mwvane produqciisTvis bazari gaizrdeba) da albaT piroba dadon, rom momavalSi kanonebs ki ar Searbileben, aramed gaamkacreben. aseTi xelSekruleba ukiduresad mokrZalebuli iqneboda. praqtikulad, igi ubralod imas miscems sistematizebul saxes, rasac aSS, CineTi da ramdenime sxva qveyana ukve isedac akeTebs. igi ver aiZulebs qveynebs imis piroba dadon, risi gakeTebac axla ar surT. magram yovel SemTxvevaSi, is raRac ufro meti iqneba, vidre kopenhagenma SeZlo. n

2014 weli retrospeqtivaSi deniel franklini

gasuli wlis Cveni saukeTeso da uaresi prognozebi

014 wels mTavari brZola ukrainis gamo gaimarTeba, romelic evrokavSirTan asocirebisa da Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebisken miemarTeba~, – naTqvamia Cvens statiaSi, JurnalSi `msoflio 2014 wels~. `ruseTi mis SesaCereblad yvela SesaZleblobas mimarTavs. rusuli zemoqmedebis mogeriebas dasWirdeba dasavleTis xedva da gadawyvetileba, rogoric bolos, 1980-iani wlebis dasawyisSi vixileT~. prognozis warmateba? maincdamainc ara. zemoT moyvanili nawyveti ruseTze Cveni statiis boloSi iyo „miCqmaluli“ da sxva nawilSi potenciur safrTxeze erTiori seriozuli miniSnebis miuxedavad, SarSandeli gamocemis mkiTxvelebi didad ver moemzadnen im perspeqtivisTvis, rom ruseTi yirims miierTebda an aRmosavleT ukrainaSi `mcire~ oms gaaCaRebda. Cveni mkiTxveli kidev ufro naklebad eloda eraysa da siriaSi `islamuri saxelwifos~ SemaSfoTebel aRzevebas da aSS-is meTaurobiT koaliciis samxedro pasuxs. maT veraferi vuTxariT RazaSi mosalodneli sisxliani omis Sesaxebac. rac Seexeba afrikas, am Jurnalis wina gamocemebi mkiTxvels mosalodneli infeqciuri daavadebebis gavrcelebis Sesaxeb afrTxilebda, magram SarSandel gamocemas ebola arc ki uxsenebia. mokled, Cven samuSao cudad SevasruleT iseTi movlenebis prognozirebisas, romlebic moulodnelad `aaldnen~.

sabednierod, ukeTesi Sedegi gvqonda sxva sferoebSi, rogorebicaa ekonomika, politikis bneli da naTeli epizodebi, da konkretuli krizisebi Tu vera, geopolitikis zogadi profili mainc. Cven velodiT, rom aSS-is ekonomika gaizrdeboda da CineTis zrda Sesustdeboda. gvegona, rom britaneTis zrdis tempi ufro didi iqneboda, vidre odesme yofila, Tumca sworad miviCnieT, rom dabali xelfasebi britanelebs ukmayofiloebs datovebda. Cven mivaniSneT nigeriis mSp-is gadaxedvaze, rac qveyanas afrikis udides ekonomikad warmoaCenda. globaluri politikuri scena ufro riskiani iqneba aSS-is mimarT im eWvebis gamo, Tu ramdenad moisurvebs igi `globaluri policielis~ rolis Sesrulebas, – zustad ase afrTxilebda mkiTxvels

gideon reCmeni. arCevnebiT gadatvirTul wels, Sedegebi bevr SemTxvevaSi sworad viwinaswarmetyveleT: evroparlamentis arCevnebSi populisturi partiebis warmateba, Sotlandielebis uari damoukideblobis referendumSi, braziliaSi dilma rusefis gamarjveba, joko vidodo indoneziaSi, jon qei axal zelandiaSi da narendra modi indoeTSi (Tumca batoni modis gamarjveba bevrad masStaburi aRmoCnda, vidre velodiT). ra iyo Cveni saukeTeso prognozi? laza kekiCi sapatio moxseniebas imsaxurebs msoflios sxvadasxva kuTxeSi areulobebis matebis Sesaxeb gafrTxilebisTvis. sofi pederi namdvilad imsaxurebs sapatio legionis ordens, radgan safrangeTis Sesaxeb misi angariSis yvela detali simarTle aRmoCnda (ufro sworad, TiTqmis simarTle: es detalebi prezident fransua olandis siyvarulis istorias ar Seexo). magram prizi gadaecema adrian vuldrijs tech-lash-is winaswarmetyvelebisTvis – kibersivrcis „monarqebis“ winaaRmdeg „glexebis“ amboxeba. marTlac, 2014 wels silikonis velis „titanebze“ intensiuri Tavdasxmebi xorcieldeboda yvelafris gamo – korporaciuli gadasaxadebis aridebiT dawyebuli, adamianTa didi raodenobiT personaluri monacemebis `moxvetiT~ damTavrebuli. bolo adgilis prizi gadaecema prognozs 2014 wlis yvelaze swrafad mzardi ekonomikis Sesaxeb. Cven velodiT, rom es qveyana samxreT sudani iqneboda, mSpis 35 %-ani zrdiT – gacilebiT maRali, vidre misi uaxloesi metoqis, da yvelas pirs daaRebinebda. samwuxarod, mSp-is nacvlad, qveyanaSi ekonomikuri zrdis gamanadgurebeli samoqalaqo konfliqti gaizarda. n deniel franklini: redaqtori, `msoflio 2015 wels~

miznebi, miznebi, miznebi meTiu biSopi, niu-iorki

msoflio ganviTarebis axali miznebis dasaxvisaTvis erTiandeba

soflio lideri Tu ar xarT, seqtembris bolo kviraSi niu-iorkSi Casvlas moerideT. manhetenze gadaadgileba SeuZlebeli iqneba, radgan gaero yovelwliur generalur asambleas marTavs, romelic 2015 wels sul mcire, erTi Taobis manZilze yvelaze mniSvnelovani iqneba. igi sazeimod aRniSnavs im progress, romelic 2000 wels dasaxuli àTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebis~ (MDGS) Sesrulebis TvalsazrisiT iqna miRweuli â&#x20AC;&#x201C; rasakvirvelia, dResaswaulis masStabi ufro didi iqneba, vidre amas araTanabari Sedegebi imsaxurebs. radganac MDGS-is 2015 wlis bolos vada ewureba, dasaxeldeba miznebis axali wyeba, romelic msoflios 2030 wlamde dausaxavs gezs. maT `mdgradi ganviTarebis miznebs~ daarqmeven, magram saxelis garda, miznebis Sesaxeb TiTqmis yvela detali didi diplomatiuri gawev-gamowevis Sedegad, generalur asambleaze maTi prezentaciidan TveebiT, dReebiTa da ramdenime saaTiT adrec ki SeTanxmdeba. àTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebis~ miRebis procesi SedarebiT martivi iyo. mas gaeros ramdenime maRalCinosani xelmZRvanelobda, romlebic iseT sakiTxebze iyvnen orientirebulni, romelTac didi cvlilebebis motana SeeZloT da ganxorcielebis seriozuli Sansi hqondaT. dapirispireba `mdgradi ganviTarebis miznebis~ gamo, mdidari qveynebis politikosebs ganviTarebadi qveynebis politikosebis winaaRmdeg ganawyobs, magram `brZolis velze~ multinacionalur kompaniebs, saqvelmoqmedo fondebs, arasamTavrobo organizaciebs da sazogadoebriv kampaniebsac gamoiyvans. amdeni xmauris miuxedavad, realuri safrTxe arsebobs, rom mTeli es Zalisxmeva raime arsebiT Sedegs ver moitans. 2000 wels aTaswleulis ganviTarebis rva mizani damtkicda â&#x20AC;&#x201C; dawyebuli ukiduresi SimSilobisa da siRaribis aRmofxvriT, bavSvTa sikvdilianobis SemcirebiT, da damTavrebuli mTavrobebsa da kerZo seqtors Soris ekonomikuri ganviTarebis xelSesawyobad partnioruli urTierTobebis damyarebiT. momdevno brZolis win, sawyis etapze, miznebis grZeli siaa SemoTavazebuli, romelic ukve 17 miznamde iqna dayvanili (okeaneebTan, uTanasworo Semosavlebsa da ganaxlebad energiebTan dakavSirebuli miznebis CaTvliT) da mas 169 qvemizani axlavs. iqneba mcdelobebi miznebis raodenobis gasazrdelad. Tumca, 2015-Si namdvili brZola miznebis siis Semcirebis Temaze gaimarTeba. mdidari mTavrobebis jgufi, aSS-isa da britaneTis CaTvliT, da aseve zogierTi iseTi bizneslideri da qvelmoqmedi, rogoric bil geiTsia, upiratesobas aniWeben naTlad gamokveTili miznebis ufro mcire sias, sadac aqcenti aTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebis monapovaris gagrZeleba-srulyofaze gakeTdeba. maTi azriT, iseTi miznis arCeva, rogoric magaliTad àraTanabari Semosavalia~, imis potencials atarebs, rom SesaZloa mZime pirobebSi mcxovrebi adamianebis daxmarebis mniSvnelovani sakiTxebidan yuradRebis masobrivi gadatana moxdes. erT-erTi mTavari sakiTxi is iqneba, Tu rogor ganisazRvros siRaribe: koncentrireba Semosavlis Sefasebis iseT sazomze gakeTdes, rogoricaa dRis ganmavlobaSi daxarjuli Tanxa, Tu ufro daxvewili

saerTaSoriso

msoflio 2015

sazomi SemoiRon, romelic iseT faqtorebsac miiRebs mxedvelobaSi, rogoric jandacva da ganaTlebaa? miznebi imgvarad unda Camoyalibdes, rom mTavrobebs progresis dasatrabaxeblad sasurveli miznebis gadarCeva gauWirdeT. ise rom, aucilebeli iqneba qveynebis TvalsaCinod Sedarebis SesaZlebloba. winadadebebi gamoiTqmeba mdidari qveynebis angariSvaldebulebis gazrdis gzebis Sesaxeb. axali miznebis SesrulebaSi maT gadasaxdeli fasis mniSvnelovani nawilis dafinanseba mouwevT. debatebi imaze, Tu ramdenad efeqtiani iyo `aTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebi~, axali miznebis gamocxadebis drois moaxloebasTan erTad, ufro metad gaaqtiurdeba. pesimistebi ityvian, rom marTalia progresi miRweulia (magaliTad, ukidures siRaribeSi mcxovrebi adamianebis raodenoba Semcirda), magram ZiriTadad es CineTSi kapitalizmis ayvavebis damsaxureba ufroa, vidre gaeros an misi saagentoebis, an saerTaSoriso daxmarebis mier gakeTebuli romeliRac saqmis. Tumca im sferoebSi, sadac `aTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebs~ damsaxureba miuZRviT (magaliTad, yovelwliurad 5 wlamde asakis bavSvebis sikvdilianobis Semcireba TiTqmis ramdenime milioniT), naTelia, rom gaeros saagentoebis mier daxmarebisTvis saWiro didi raodenobis Tanxebis mobilizebas udidesi mniSvneloba hqonda.

2015 mokled martSi, iaponiis qalaq sendaiSi, gaeros kidev erTi globaluri Sexvedra katastrofebis riskebis SemcirebisTvis, struqturas ayalibebs

fuli, fuli, fuli `mdgradi ganviTarebis miznebi~ ufro met damajereblobas SeiZenen, Tu maT didi Tanxebic mohyveba, raTa qveynebma miznebis Sesruleba SeZlon. es iqneba ivlisSi, adis-abebaSi gamarTuli mTavrobaTaSorisi Sexvedris centraluri Tema, sadac monawileni ecdebian donori qveynebi saerTaSoriso daxmarebisTvis mSp-is 0.7%-is gamoyofis Sesaxeb bundovani dapirebebidan ufro konkretul amocanebze fokusirebul qmedebaze gadaiyvanon. dRis wesrigSi iqneba ganviTarebad qveynebSi i n f r a s t r u q - ganaTleba, ganaTleba, ganaTleba turis ganviTarebisa da `ganaTlebis globaluri fondis~ dasafinanseblad saWiro axali midgomebi. adis-abebaSi ganviTarebuli movlenebi did rols Seasrulebs niu-iorkSi, seqtemberSi Seqmnili ganwyobis CamoyalibebaSi. aseve, klimaturi cvlilebebis SeTanxmebis detalebi, romlebic dekemberSi, parizSi unda gamocxaddes, axali miznebis mier mdgradi ganviTarebis mimarTulebiT dasaxuli nebismieri valdebulebis damajereblobis dones gansazRvravs. es yvelaferi imis gamocda iqneba, SesaZlebelia Tu ara gaeros sistemaSi axali cxovrebis STaberva an msoflios udidesi problemebis gadasalaxad mdidari qveynebis erTad muSaoba, an moyveba Tu ara `aTaswleulis ganviTarebis miznebis~ Tavdapirvel dapirebas kvlav fuWi saubrebisa da umoqmedobis etapze dabruneba. n

meTiu biSopi: globalizaciis redaqtori, The Economist

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso

daumTavrebeli saqme msoflios qalebisaTvis

aeros qalTa konferenciis iubile misi xedvis ganaxlebis Sansia~, – ambobs aSS-is yofili saxelmwifo mdivani hilari rodem qlinToni. arsebobs ori ricxvi, romelic erTi didi eris momavals gansazRvravda: eqvsi da 1.7 trilioni. pirveli aris dRis ganmavlobaSi saaTebis saSualo raodenoba, romlis drosac indoeli qali anazRaurebis gareSe asrulebs samuSaos. meore, aSS dolarSi aRebuli, aris is moculoba, ramdeniTac indoeTis mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) gaizrdeboda, qalebi mamakacebis doneze oficialurad rom iyvnen aRiarebuli, rogorc samuSao Zala. axali monacemebisa da analitikuri instrumentebis saSualebiT, amdeni informacia arasodes gvqonia msoflioSi usafrTxoebisa da keTildReobis uzrunvelyofis saqmeSi qalebisa da gogonebis wvlilis Sesaxeb. aseve, im winaaRmdegobebis Sesaxebac, rac maT abrkolebT. 2015 wels qlinTonis fondis iniciativa `ara zeda zRvars~ (No Ceilings), romelic geiTsis fondTan erTad muSaobs, gamoscems globalur angariSs, romelic bolo ori aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi qalTa mier miRweul warmatebebs da jer kidev TvalsaCino problemebs aRwers.

ratom 2015? pekinSi, 1995 wels gaeros qalTa meoTxe msoflio konferenciis Catarebidan 20 wlis iubile seqtemberSi Sesruldeba. im Sekrebis mesiji dResac aqtualuria: `erTxel da samudamod, adamianis uflebebi aris qalTa uflebebi da qalTa uflebebi aris adamianis uflebebi~. me amayad SevuerTdi 189 eris warmomadgenels im ambiciur platformaze SeTanxmebisas, romelic `politikur, samoqalaqo, ekonomikur da kulturul cxovrebaSi qalTa srulfasovani da Tanasworuflebiani monawileobis~ Sesaxeb mouwodebda. kargi ambavi isaa, rom pekinis konferenciidan 20 wlis Semdeg, realur progress mivaRwieT. qalebisTvis jandacvisa da ganaTlebis xelmisawvdomoba SesamCnevad gaumjobesda. orsulobasa da mSobiarobasTan dakavSirebuli qalTa sikvdilianobis SemTxvevebi ganaxevrda. daswrebis TvalsazrisiT, globaluri genderuli naprali, faqtobrivad, amoivso. magram sxva ambebi aseTi imedismomcemi ar aris: globalur doneze, mamakacebsa da qalebs Soris SromiT procesSi arsebuli uTanasworoba arsebiTad ver aRmoifxvra. 100-ze met qveyanaSi jer kidev arsebobs kanonebi, romlebic qalTa ekonomikur CarTulobas zRudavs. maSinac ki, roca qalebi samsaxurs iwyeben, maT winaSe bevri gamowvevaa. SeerTebul StatebSi ojaxis marCenali yoveli aTi pirovnebidan oTxi qalia. amis miuxedavad, amerikeli qalebi mamakacebze nakleb anazRaurebas iReben. moqnili da prognozirebadi grafikis, bavSvTa xelmisawvdomi jandacvis, anazRaurebadi biuletenisa da dekretuli Svebulebis ararseboba, – ramdenadac SeerTebuli Statebi im mcire qveynebs Sorisaa, romlebsac es sikeTeebi akliaT – bevr qals gariyuls tovebs. me-20 saukunis ekonomika

21-e saukunis ojaxebs ubralod ar swyalobs. rac 1995 wels simarTle gvegona, axla ukve dazustebiT viciT: Cveni mosaxleobis naxevaris ukan datovebiT, win ver wavalT. faqtebiT SegviZlia davrwmundeT, rom roca qalebs da gogonebs aqtivobis SesaZlebloba aqvT, ekonomikebi izrdeba da qveynebi viTardeba. sakuTari TvaliT minaxavs, msoflios sxvadasxva adgilas, qveynebis skeptikos meTaurebTan urTierTobis CaTvliT: rac ufro metad arian adamianebi informirebuli, miT ukeT SeuZliaT kargi gadawyvetilebebis miReba da sabolood, ufro met Sedegs viRebT. ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizaciam daadgina, rom globalurad, Sromis bazris genderul uTanasworobas Tu davZlevT, 2013 wlisTvis msoflios masStabiT mSp daaxloebiT 12%-iT gaizrdeba. axla, roca msoflio pekinis gakveTilebs ixsenebs da globaluri ganviTarebis miznebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebaze fiqrobs, Cven SesaZlebloba gvaqvs, 2015, mTel rig mTavar sferoebSi, moqmedebis wlad vaqcioT. marTalia, ufro meti kanoni krZalavs qalTa winaaRmdeg diskriminacias, magram kanonebis ganxorcieleba da aRsruleba CamorCenilia, xolo kulturuli normebis Secvla – kvlav rTuli. qveynebma resursebi unda daxarjon da politikuri neba gamoiCinon, raTa im kanonebis aRsruleba moxdes, romlebic maT genderuli Tanasworobis xelSesawyobad miiRes. teqnologiuri warmatebebi progresis uprecedento SesaZleblobebs uxsnis gzas. iseT instrumentebs, rogorebicaa mobailbankingi, onlaintreningi da `tviteri~, SeuZliaT ufro met qals daexmaron im servisebze wvdomaSi, rac winsvlaSi daexmarebaT da aseve imaSic, rom TavianTi istoriebi sxvebs gauziaron. magram Cven jer is didi naprali unda SevavsoT, romelic ganviTarebad samyaroSi mobiluri da internetkavSirebis mxriv, qalebsa da mamakacebs Soris arsebobs. es mxolod qalebisTvis brZola ar aris. 2015 wels Tu partniorul urTierTobas davamyarebT mTel rig mokavSireebTan, gansakuTrebiT ki religiur da kerZo seqtoris liderebTan, Cven ufro farTo da swrafi cvlilebebis miRwevas SevZlebT. bevr sferoSi liderebi imis aRiarebas daiwyeben, rom qalebis CrdilSi datoveba swori ar aris da arc finansuri TvalsazrisiTaa kargi. oci wlis win qalTa da gogonaTa Tanasworobaze saubari, bevr adgilas, CineTis CaTvliT, tabudadebuli iyo. ise rom, Tamami nabijebis gadadgma mZlavri moraluri magaliTis micemasac niSnavda. 2015 wels, monacemTa mzardi baza saSualebas mogvcems, rom es faqtebis moxmobis gziT gavakeToT. progresi SesaZlebelia. iseve, rogorc 1995 wels naTqvam sityvebs, 2015 wels Cadenil Cvens saqmeebsac momavalSi eqneba gamoZaxili. modi, uzrunvelvyoT, rom roca 2035 wels am gamocemis furclebs gadavSliT, qalTa da gogonaTa TanasworuflebianobisTvis brZola mogebuli iyos. erTxel da samudamod. n

„gaeros qalTa konferenciis iubile misi xedvis ganaxlebis Sansia~, – ambobs aSS-is yofili saxelmwifo mdivani hilari rodem qlinToni

rac 1995 wels simarTle gvegona, axla ukve dazustebiT viciT: Cveni mosaxleobis naxevaris ukan datovebiT, win ver wavalT

saerTaSoriso

msoflio 2015

iogas gaWimva ane makelvoi

pranaiamas siuxve

as Semdeg, rac me-15 saukuneSi indoelma mistikosma adinaTam `xesarvidiaSi~ piroba dado, rom iogebi gaxdebodnen `uasakoni da ukvdavni am samyaroSi~, iogas moqnili Sarmi mimdevrebs izidavs. niu-iorkuli jandacvis sakonsultacio firma Spafinder-is mixedviT, 2012 wels 22 milioni amerikeli dadioda iogaze, rac 2010 welTan SedarebiT, 2 milioniT metia. amerikelebis xarjebi iogas produqtebze, moduri mokazmulobisa da studiebSi gamosayenebeli Wilofebis CaTvliT, 2007 wlis 4.7 miliardi dolaridan, 2012 wels 7 miliar dolaramde gaizarda. mosalodnelia, rom msoflio masStabiT im adamianebis raodenoba, romlebic `asanas~ (moZraobebi) da „pranaiamas~ (sunTqviTi varjiSebi) swavloben, 2015

wels axal piks miaRwevs. pensilvaniis universitetis uortonis skola iogas CineTSi akvirdeboda da bums winaswarmetyvelebs. Teokratiebic ki, romlebic xSirad iogas saxelmwifo religiis winaSe arsebul gamowvevad aRiqvamen, damSvidebulebi Canan. usafrTxoebis samsaxuris mier gacemuli brZanebis miuxedavad, rom iogas mimdevroba islamisTvis safrTxes warmoadgens, iranSi iogas swavlebis 200 centria. iogas popularizacias ramdenime faqtori uwyobs xels. iogas hipuri reputacia Seirya (bankirebic ki mRerian `oms~ da studiebi uTenia ixsneba, raTa ofisebSi dasaqmebulTa moTxovna daakmayofilon). sadazRvevo kompaniebi iogas regularul varjiSebs im faqtorebs Soris rTaven, romlebic premiis fass amcirebs. asakovnebisTvis jandacvaze SemoRebulma privilegiebma `nacrisferi ioga~ popularuli gaxada. yvelaferTan erTad, ioga adaptirebadia: saerTaSoriso sportis iogas federacia, romelic pedantebis gulis gasaxeTqad iogaSi turnirebs marTavs, acxadebs, rom 5000-ze meti adamiani

msoflio Tasebis trio adam bernsi

zustad maSin, roca gaifiqreT, rom televizors unda moSorebodiT...

raziliuri sportis or gamomacocxlebel RonisZiebas Sors (2014 wlis msoflio Cempionati fexburTSi da 2016 wlis rios olimpiada) moqceuli 2015 weli erTgvar `mTvlemare~ periods gvpirdeba, magram rasac sambaTi galamazebuli sanaxaoba daaklebs am wels, igi mas im mravalferovnebiT aanazRaurebs, rasac sami msoflio Tasi moitans. gansakuTrebiT kriketze Seyvarebuli indoelebi datkbebian kriketSi msoflio TasiT, romelsac martis TveSi avstralia da axali zelandia umaspinZlebs. Catardeba `erTdRiani~ matCebi, romlebic ufro naklebad tradiciulia, vidre xuTdRiani satesto matCebi, da ufro dinji, vidre saxaliso tipis kriketis Twenty20 versia. zogma eWviT Sexeda Cempionatis gaberil formats, rac niSnavs, rom 14-ve metoqe gundi finalur etapamde sul mcire eqvs matCs Caatarebs. rva saukeTeso gundi darwmunebulia, rom meoTxedfinalSi gava. Tumca, am formats is upiratesoba aqvs telemauwyeblebisTvis (da amdenad, kriketis saerTaSoriso asociaciisTvisac, romelic satelevizio licenziebs yidis) rom indoeTma, sul mcire, Svid matCSi unda iTamaSos. 2007 wels isini Sin sami matCis Semdeg dabrundnen da sareklamo Semosavlebi daeca. indoelebs Sansi aqvT, rom 2015 wlis Cempionati moigon, Tumca adgilobrivi pirobebis codna niSnavs, rom TanamemamuleTa mxardaWeris fonze, wesiT, avstralia gamarjvebamde unda mivides. am matCebis satelevizio auditoria masobrivi iqneba. rogorc xalxi ambobs, 2011 wels pakistansa da indoeTs Soris gamarTul naxevarfinals miliardze meti mayurebeli hyavda. Tumca daswrebis sruli monacemebis mixedviT, ragbis msoflio Cempionats ufro safuZvliani ambicia aqvs, rom olimpiuri TamaSebisa da fexburTis msoflio Cempionatis Semdeg, mesame udides saerTaSoriso sportul RonisZiebad dasaxeldes.

adam bernsi: redaqtoris moadgile, `msoflio 2015 wels~

iRebs aseT SejibrebebSi monawileobas. iogas saxeobebs, romlebic odesRac cota sigiJed miiCneoda, axali mimdevrebis mizidvaSi socialuri media da internetaplikaciebic daexmara. centraluri londonis sportul darbazSi saxelad `mesame sivrce~, erTerTi yvelaze moTxovnadi klasi antigravitaciuli iogaa, romlis drosac monawileebi Weridan abreSumis qsoviliT arian Camokidebuli, rac maT ufro farTod gaWimvaSi exmareba. yvelgan arsebobs ioga-klubebi hedonistebisaTvis da mSvidi ini ioga maTTvis, visac erT poziciaze darCena uyvars iqamde, vidre maT sulebs mowyeniloba gaaSeSebs. eqvsi saukunis win adinaTam piroba dado, rom misi (SedarebiT, ubralo) haTha ioga sasargeblo iqneboda `dafluli ganZis sapovnelad, saidumlo samefoSi Sesasvlelad (da) dedamiwis gasakontroleblad~. es arc ise cudi dapirebaa samuSaodan Sors myofi korporaciuli tipebisTvis. n ane makelvoi: sazogadoebrivi politikis redaqtori, The Economist

zustad ise, rogorc erTdRiani kriketi ufro mokle da modurma Twenty20-m Seaviwrova, 15-kaca ragbi, romelic msoflio Cempionatzea daSvebuli, nel-nela 7-kaca ragbis gavlenas ganicdis. 2016 wlidan, 7-kaca olimpiuri sporti xdeba da is qveynebi, romelTac mcirericxovani moTamaSeebi hyavT, TamaSis ufro mokle da martiv versiaze daiwyeben aqcentirebas. magaliTad, kenia, romelsac 15-kaca ragbiSi 32-e adgili ekava msoflios masStabiT, sul bolos Catarebul msoflio 7-kaca seriebSi meSvide adgilze gavida. es Cempionati seqtemberSi inglisSi gaixsneba da sakadrisi, konkurentuli turniri 7-kaca ragbis tempiTa da simartiviT gaocebul axal fanebs Seaxsenebs, rom 15-kaca sul sxvanairi Jruantelis momgvrelia. Tasis mflobelma da msoflios saukeTeso gundma – axalma zelandiam, wesiT, samSoblos gareT Tavisi pirveli msoflio Tasi unda moigos; amerikelebi, romlebic sagulSematkivrod gunds eZeben, fexburTSi qalTa msoflio Cempionats unda daelodon, romelic Sua zafxulSi kanadaSi gaimarTeba. es meSvide aseTi turniria. nawilobriv, wlebis ganmavlobaSi Cadebuli investiciebis wyalobiT, amerikelebma es Tasi ukve orjer moiges, da jer arcerTi Cempionati ar dausrulebiaT, pirvel sameulSi rom ar moxvedriliyvnen. 2015 wels isini kvlav moigeben. germaniaSi gamarjvebis Semdeg kanadelebis mimarT didi molodinia. maTma gegmam, rom eqvs stadionze xelovnuri balaxis safari gamoiyenon, kritika gamoiwvia da moTamaSeebis jgufi TamaSebis organizator `fifas~ da kanadis fexburTis asociacias genderuli diskriminaciis gamo sasamarTloSi CiviliT daemuqra. maTi TqmiT, mamakacebis turniri aseT zedapirze arasodes gaimarTeboda. 2026 wels mamakacTa msoflio Tasis maspinZloba kanadas surs, romelic `didi Svideulis~ mdidari qveynebis jgufidan erTaderTia, romelsac aqamde es misia ar Seusrulebia – da imedi eqneba, rom amjerad mainc gaumarTlebs. ise rom, savarZlebis moyvarulebs mouwevT 2015 weli teleekranebze kopakabanas sanapirosa da RaribTa feradi dasaxlebebis fonis gareSe gaiyvanon. Tumca Tu gaviTvaliswinebT fexburTSi afrikis erTa Tass marokoSi da msoflio Cempionats aTletizmSi pekinSi, maT mainc uamravi mizezi aqvT, rom ufro didi televizorebi SeiZinon. n

kvlav ganadgurebis safrTxis winaSe meTiu saimondsi

baraq obamas mcdelobas, rom msoflio birTvuli iaraRisgan gaaTavisuflos, aseTi sabralo ieri arasodes hqonia

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso 2015 mokled gaero niadagisa da sinaTlis saerTaSoriso wels aRniSnavs

015 wlis agvistoSi hirosimasa da nagasakiSi ori atomuri bombis Camogdebis 70 wlisTavi Sesruldeba. marTalia 1962 wels kubis saraketo krizisis dros msoflio katastrofas miuaxlovda, da araerT incindentsa da yalb gangaSsac SeeZlo katastrofis gamowveva, magram iaponiaze Tavdasxmebi iyo pirveli da jerjerobiT ukanaskneli SemTxveva, roca atomuri bombi omSi gamoiyenes. ormxrivi garantirebuli mospobis SiSis balansi aSS-sa da sabWoTa kavSirs Soris, Sekavebis `qoreografiaSi~ gadaizarda, romelic moicavda iaraRis kontrolze dadebul SeTanxmebebs, romlis drosac orive mxares esmoda, rom misi, sakuTari usafrTxoeba meoris usafrTxoebis moTxovnebis pativiscemaze iyo damokidebuli. msoflio axla ufro usafrTxoc aris da ufro saSiSic. vladimir putinis mier gamoCenili maqsimaluri Zalisxmevis miuxedavad, rom ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris mtruli damokidebuleba aRdges, aSS-sa da ruseTs Soris im tipis atomuri urTierTTavdasxma, romelic planetaze sicocxles bolos mouRebda, Zneli warmosadgenia. magram msoflio ufro saSiSi gaxda daZabulobis axali kerebis, atomuri gadawyvetilebebis mimRebi centrebis raodenobisa da arastabilur regionebSi riskis zrdis gamo. es sakiTxebi savaraudod maisSi daismeba, roca birTvuli iaraRis gauvrceleblobis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis xelSekrulebis (NPT) 189 xelmomweri saxelmwifo niu-iorkSi gamarTul Sesafasebel konferenciaze Seikribeba (cnobilia, rogorc RevCon), romelic yovel xuT weliwadSi erTxel imarTeba. 1968 wels dadebuli xelSekruleba, romelic atomuri iaraRis mflobeli saxelmwifoebis raodenobas zRudavda gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos xuT mudmiv wevramde (aSS, britaneTi, safrangeTi, ruseTi da CineTi) da imavdroulad birTvuli energiis gamoyenebas uwyobda xels, udidesi SeTanxmeba iyo, romelic sam burjs efuZneboda: gauvrcelebloba, birTvuli energiis mSvidobiani gamoyeneba da xuTi wevris mier saboloo atomuri ganiaraReba. nagasakis koSmari aseTi iyo foni, roca baraq obamam Tavisi cnobili – praRis sityva warmoTqva 2009 wels (romelmac nobelis mSvidobis prizi moumwifeblad moagebina), sadac msjelobda, msoflio SeZruli unda iyos sakuTari TviTkmayofilebiT im iaraRis mimarT, romelsac jer kidev SeuZlia kacobriobis ganadgurebao. rogorc obama acxadebda, misi ambicia iyo dasabamis micema im mravalmxrivi procesisTvis, romelic erTi Taobis ganmavlobaSi msoflios atomuri iaraRis sayovelTao dagmobamde miiyvanda. `globaluri nuli~ – am saxeliT damkvidrda misi gamoTqma. 2005 wlis araproduqtiuli Sekrebis Semdeg, 2010 wlis konferencia warmatebulad miiCnies – nawilomeTiu saimondsi: briv, batoni obamas mimarT gaCenili imedebis gamo Tavdacvis da nawilobriv, samoqmedo gegmis Sesaxeb miRweuli redaqtori, im SeTanxmebis gamoc, romelic birTvuli iaraRis The Economist

gauvrceleblobis xelSekrulebis samive sayrdeni svetis gaZlierebas isaxavda miznad. batoni obama gacilebiT mets dagvpirda, vidre Sesruleba SeuZlia da samoqmedo gegmis udidesi nawili Seusrulebeli rCeba, rac 2015 wlis SekrebisTvis kargis niSani ar aris. im fonze, rom batoni putinis agresiul ruseTs ar surs aSS-sTan raime saxis molaparakebebis dawyeba, xolo CineTi Tavisi birTvuli arsenalis Sesaxeb meti gamWvirvalobis mowodebebs uZaliandeba, uSiSroebis sabWos 5 wevr qveyanas aranairi progresisTvis ar miuRwevia im Semdgomi ganiaraRebis mimarTulebiT, risi pirobac dades. simarTle isaa, rom saTanado uflebis mqone yvela qveyana birTvuli Zalebis modernizebas axorcielebs. miumxroblobis moZraobis xelmomwerebic gabrazebulebi arian, radgan fiqroben, rom maTi dRis wesrigic ignorirebulia. dapireba, rom 2012 wels Sua aRmosavleTis birTvuli iaraRisgan Tavisufal zonad Camoyalibebis mizniT konferencia gaimarTeboda, ver Sesrulda. `arabuli gazafxulis~ daZabulobisa da israelis im survilis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom mxolod im procesebSi monawileobdes, rac regionSi usafrTxoebis yvela aspeqts moicavs, RevCon-amde aseTi Sexvedris gamarTvis perspeqtiva Zalian mwiria. warumateblobas sxva qveynebzec `koroziis efeqti~ eqneba. magaliTad, egvipteze, romelic zurgis SeqceviT imuqreba. axali iniciativa, birTvuli iaraRis `humanitarul Sedegebze~ ganiaraRebis mimarT damokidebulebas birTvuli iaraRis saerTaSoriso humanitaruli kanonis Tanaxmad, kanongareSed gamocxadebiT upirispirdeba. es iniciativa popularobas ixveWs da mas mxars iseTi qveynebi uWeren, rogorebicaa norvegia, avstria, irlandia, aseve miumxroblobis moZraoba. Tumca, uSiSroebis sabWos 5-ma wevrma uari Tqva masSi CarTvaze. agreTve, ruseTis mier yirimis aneqsiis Semdeg, NATO-s wevri bevri is qveyana, romlebsac aSS-is `atomuri qolga~ icavT, am iniciativis mimarT kidev ufro uaryofiTad ganewyo.

saTaveSi saSiSi ukrainis krizisi konferenciaze sxva gziT moaxdens gavlenas. aSS-sa da ruseTs Soris birTvul sakiTxebze TanamSromloba gayinulia. batoni putini ruseTis atomur iaraRs „nacionaluri simamacis“ simbolod aRiqvams. Tumca, birTvuli gauvrceleblobis xelSekrulebisTvis udidesi safrTxe, 1994 wlis budapeStis memorandumis Tanaxmad, ruseTis, safrangeTisa da britaneTis mier ukrainisTvis micemuli usafrTxoebis im garantis gaufasurebaa, romelic ukrainam sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg memkvidreobiT miRebuli atomuri iaraRis daTmobis dros miiRo. ukrainas rom Tavisi birTvuli arsenali SeenarCunebina, daipyrobda ki ruseTi mis teritorias?.. ucnauria, magram gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos 5 wevrsa (plus germania) da irans Soris gamarTuli molaparakebebidan iranis birTvuli programis Sesaxeb, SesaZloa erTi pozitiuri axali ambavi movides: mxareebs Soris jer kidev seriozuli uTanxmoebebi arsebobs, gansakuTrebiT imaze, uranis gasamdidrebeli centrifugebis ra raodenobis SenarCunebas SeZlebs irani. birTvuli gauvrceleblobis xelSekruleba didi zemoqmedebis qveSaa, magram jer kidev urRvevia. iranTan iseTi SeTanxmebis miRweva, romelic xelSekrulebis principebis Sesabamisi iqneba, xelSekrulebas sasicocxlod mniSvnelovan Zalas Sematebda. n

msoflio 2015

nacionalizmi brundeba gideon reCmeni

cudi ambebi saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobisTvis

olo wlebSi, nebismier avtors, vinc iwinaswarmetyvelebda, rom nacionalizmi momavlis kuTvnilebaa, saukeTeso SemTxvevaSi, aranormalurad Seracxavdnen. biznesis, teqnologiisa da finansebis sferos yvelaze gavleniani Zalebi ufro Rrma saerTaSoriso integraciisken ltolvis STabeWdilebas tovebdnen. zeerovnuli organizaciebi, rogorebicaa vaWrobis msoflio organizacia, `didi oceuli~ da saerTaSoriso kriminaluri sasamarTlo, im saerTaSoriso problemebTan gasamklaveblad Seiqmna, romlebic globalizebul samyaroSi momravlda. amasobaSi, evrokavSirma – organizaciam, sadac qveynebi saziaro suverenitets sjerdebian da nacionalizms Tmoben, sakuTari Tavi 21-e saukunis politikur modelad gamoacxada. Tumca, 2015 wels sul ufro naTeli gaxdeba, rom nacionalizmi `scenaze dabrunda~. evropidan aziamde da aSS-mde, im politikosebis Zalaufleba da gavlena, vinc sakuTar mimzidvelobas Tavisi qveynis interesebis dacvis ideaze afuZnebs, gaizrdeba. amas Sedegad moyveba saerTaSoriso daZabulobis zrda da aseve, iseTi mravalmxrivi ZalisxmevebisTvis, rogoricaa klimati, vaWroba, gadasaxadebis sistema da ganviTareba, wamgebiani fonis Seqmna. politikaSi nacionalisturi stilis aRorZineba aSkara 2014 wels gaxda. indoeTSi, narendra modim, romelic xSirad indus nacionalad moixsenieba, sayovelTao arCevnebi uzarmazari sxvaobiT moigo. nacionalisturma partiebma evropis parlamentis arCevnebSi didi mxardaWera miiRes – safrangeTis nacionalisturi fronti da britaneTis gaerTianebuli samefos damoukideblobis partia arCevnebis liderebi gaxdnen. Sotlandieli nacionalistebi gaerTianebuli samefodan gamoyofis Sesaxeb gamarTul referendumSi gamarjvebasTan Jruantelismomgvrelad axlos mividnen. nacionalisturi ritorika vladimir putinis ruseTSic aRzevda, sadac kremlma mosaxleobis mxardaWera yirimis aneqsirebisken mimarTa. am procesSi man rusuli media gamoiyena, romelsac garesamyaros mtruli, faSisturi portretic ki daaxatvina.

cecxlze navTi mravalwliani arasasurveli ekonomikuri zrdis Semdeg, politikuri da bizneselitebiT sayovelTao imedgacrueba is saerTo faqtoria, romelic globaluri masStabiT nacionalizmis aRmavlobas udevs safuZvlad. dasavleT evropaSi amas imigraciis maRali doniT gamowveuli gaRizianeba emateba. ruseTSi sabWoTa kavSiris daSliT gamowveuli damcirebis grZnoba da didi Zalis statusis nostalgia jer ar ganelebula. aziaSi, damamZimebeli faqtoria ZalTa cvalebadi balansic, romelmac iseTi qveynebi, ro-

saerTaSoriso goric CineTi da samxreT koreaa, aiZula istoriul ukmayofilebaze (gansakuTrebiT, iaponiis mimarT) aqcentirebuliyo. aSS-Si, `islamuri saxelmwifos~ zrdiT gamowveulma Seuracxyofam, agresiuli da gasamxedroebuli sagareo politikis dasabruneblad `madis gaRviZeba~ daiwyo. bevri am ZalTagani 2015 wels gaZlierdeba. ise rom, globalur politikaSi nacionalisturi toni ufro SesamCnevi gaxdeba. evropaSi nacionalizmis gaZlierebis mTavari sazomi britaneTis sayovelTao da germaniis adgilobrivi arCevnebi iqneba. britaneTSi `gaerTianebuli samefos damoukideblobis partiis~ warmateba SiSebs gaaRvivebs, rom qveyanam SesaZloa evrokavSiri datovos. amasobaSi, partia `alternativa germaniisTvis~, romelic miiCnevs, rom germaniis interesebi evrokavSiris interesebs iyo daqvemdebarebuli, ecdeba Tavi qveynis mesame politikur Zalad daimkvidros. safrangeTis politikuri klasi nerviulad daakvirdeba sazogadoebriv gamokiTxvebs, raTa `nacionaluri frontis~ marin le penis, rogorc prezidentobis perspeqtiuli kandidatis, reitingis zrdis ufro meti damamtkicebeli sabuTi hqondes. Tumca, evropis stabilurobisTvis yvelaze seriozul safrTxed mainc rusuli nacionalizmi rCeba. evropis (da albaT, msoflios) winaSe usafrTxoebis udidesi SekiTxva iqneba, gamoiyenebs Tu ara prezidenti putini misive daxmarebiT Seqmnil nacionalizms da ukrainisa da baltiispireTis qveynebis winaaRmdeg muqaras gaagrZelebs. aziis momavlisTvis nacionalisturi ritorikisa da teritoriuli konfliqtebis urTierTmimarTebac kritikuli iqneba. indoeTis batoni modi, iaponiis Sinzo abe da CineTis si zinpingi – yvelani qveynis iseTi energiuli mSeneblebi arian, romlebmac nacionalizmi saSinao reformebis stimulad gamoiyenes. Tumca maTi nacionalizmi qveynis gareTac imzireba. 2015 wels, aziisTvis udidesi SekiTxva Sida reformebze aqcentirebis irgvliv iqneba – CineTSi, indoeTsa da iaponiaSi saerTaSoriso SuRlis atmosferos daamarcxebs Tu vera. optimizmis safuZveli arsebobs. marTalia iseT Temebze, rogoricaa CineTsa da iaponias Soris kunZulebis gamo arsebuli konfliqti, daZabuloba kvlav didia, magram mainc mosalodnelia, rom politikuri liderebi principuli sakiTxebis daTmobis gareSe miaRweven SeTanxmebas. mTlianobaSi, nacionalisturi politikis aRmavlobis gamo, saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobisTvis 2015 cudi weli iqneba. evrokavSiri ibrZolebs, raTa evropis ekonomikis aRorZinebasa da ruseTTan gamklavebisTvis saWiro RonisZiebebis Temebze SeTanxmdes. Tavad ruseTi sul ufro da ufro marginalizebuli aRmoCndeba. es yvelaferi gaarTulebs gaeroSi SeTanxmebis miRwevas – Sua aRmosavleTiT dawyebuli, klimatis cvlilebis Sesaxeb molaparakebebiT damTavrebuli. globalizebuli ekonomikuri sistema nacionalizmis aRorZinebas 2015 wels gadaurCeba, magram qveynebs Soris TanamSromloba Semcirdeba. n

2015 mokled 2022 wlis zamTris olimpiadis maspinZeli qalaqi SerCeulia. konkurss almaata da pekini SemorCnen

gideon reCmeni: saerTaSoriso movlenebis Temaze svetis mTavari avtori, Financial Times

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso

didi imedebi

armatebuli socialuri moZraobebis istoriaSi yovelTvis arsebobs `aalebis wertili~, roca konkretuli miznis misaRwevad adamianTa patara jgufis erToblivi strategia xalxTa masebs cvlilebebis moTxovnisTvis `aanTebs~ xolme. ase moxda 1950 wlis Sua periodSi, amerikeli uflebadamcvelebis moZraobis dros, romelmac erTi aTwleulis Semdeg istoriul kanonmdeblobamde migviyvana. ase moxda 1980-ian wlebSi, „aparteidis“ winaaRmdeg galaSqrebis dros, roca globaluri boikoti samxreT afrikis Savkanian mosaxleobas Soris aRmaval moZraobas Seerwya, raTa mCagvreli sistema daemarcxebina. da zustad imave dekadaSi, msoflio sabWoTa komunizms misdga. warmatebul moZraobebs mTavari Tvisebebi erTnairi aqvT: STagonebiT aRsavse mcirericxovani individebisa da organizaciebis STambeWdavi lideroba; momenti, romelic masebis sindiss aRviZebs; da politikuri evolucia, romelic iseT garemos qmnis, sadac cvlileba SesaZleblad miiCneva. Tumca, masobrivi moZraobisTvis yvelaze mniSvnelovani winapiroba albaT progresis magaliTebia, rac umravlesobas daarwmunebs, rom cvlileba SesaZloa moxdes, Tu isini mis misaRwevad ibrZoleben. me mjera, rom 2015 weli savaraudoa is momenti iyos, roca msoflios garSemo bavSvebis gadasarCenad dawyebuli brZola saxalxo moZraobad gadaiqceva, radgan msoflios aqvs progresis magaliTebi, rac amtkicebs, rom dramatuli cvlilebebis miRweva SesaZlebelia Cveni sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi. roca bavSvebs sabaziso jandacva aqvT imisTvis, rom 5 wels gadaabijon, roca sakmarisi sakvebi gaaCniaT da skolebSi siaruli SeuZliaT, msoflios sazogadoebebi ufro Zlierad grZnoben Tavs. globaluri ganviTarebis sferoSi miRweuli warmatebebi aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi Catarebuli Sromis Sedegia, magram Cven jer kidev didi gza gvaqvs gasavleli. erT mSvenier dResac, mdidar qveynebSi mcxovrebi xalxisTvis damabrmaveblad naTeli gaxdeba, rom Rarib qveynebSi bavSvebs sikvdilis 10-25-jer ufro maRali riski aqvT – mxolod da mxolod imitom, rom im konkretul qveyanaSi daibadnen; naTeli gaxdeba, rom maTi sikvdilis Tavidan arideba SesaZlebelia; da moralurad miuRebeli gaxdeba, rom situacia dauyovnebliv ar gamoswordes. globaluri ganviTarebis WrilSi, me vfiqrob, rom Cven im wertilSi varT, roca msoflio yuradRebas gamoiCens, radgan progresi, romelsac mivaRwieT, adasturebs, rom avadmyofobebi da siRaribe gardauvali ar aris. bolo 25 wlis ganmavlobaSi, bavSvTa sikvdilianobis ricxvi ganaxevrda. 1990 wels 12.7 milioni bavSvi gardaicvala. sikvdilianobis maCvenebeli rom igive darCeniliyo, maSin mosaxleobis zrdis gaTvaliswinebiT, SarSan gardacvlili bavSvebis raodenoba 17 milions gadaaWarbebda. amis nacvlad, es ricxvi mxolod 6 milioni iyo. ukidures siRaribeSi mcxovrebi

adamianebis ricxvmac daaxloebiT amave tempiT iklo, xolo Zalian Raribi adamianebis raodenoba, msoflio masStabiT, 1990 wlis Semdeg naxevarze metad Semcirda. am progresis mizezebi arc saswaulebrivia da arc mistikuri. Cven zustad viciT, risi damsaxurebaa bavSvebis gadarCena. ufro met adgilebSi gacilebiT meti daavadebis winaaRmdeg xdeba ufro meti vaqcinis gamoyeneba. mwerebis sawinaaRmdego nivTierebiT gajerebuli sawolis damcavma badeebma milionobiT adamiani daicva malariisgan. faRaraTis dros siTxis danakargis Sesavsebi marilis martivi wyalxsnari (oral rehydration salts) bavSvebs gadarCenaSi exmareba. Cven aseve viciT, rogor amarcxeben adamianebi siRaribes: es xdeba ufro produqtiuli soflis meurneobis wyalobiT, finansur servisebze ukeTesi wvdomiT, da kargad gamarTuli jandacvis sistemis damkvidrebiT, romelic ZviradRirebul gadaudebel samedicino daxmarebis saWiroebas gamoricxavs. am progresis kidev erTi mizezi isaa, rom ufro kargad viswavleT, ra muSaobs, rogor unda gavzomoT progresi, da rogor gavigoT, swor gzaze varT Tu ara. 2000 wels msoflios qveynebi Seikribnen, raTa pirvelad istoriaSi, ganviTarebis misaRwevad naTeli miznebi daesaxaT. maTi xedviT, 2015 wels ufro nakleb adamians unda ecxovra siRaribeSi. maT warmatebas miaRwies – nawilobriv, am saerTo molodinis damsaxurebiTac.

`bavSvTa jandacvis, aseve siRaribis Semcirebis kuTxiT, mkveTri winsvla msoflios xelSia~, – miaCnia Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation-is TanaTavmjdomare bil geiTss

yvelam isargebleT SansiT 2015 wels msoflios yvela qveynis lideri miRweuli progresis sasargeblo gamoyenebis Sesaxeb sasaubrod erTad Seikribeba. isini seqtemberSi gaeroSi Sexvdebian erTmaneTs, raTa ganviTarebis mTavar sferoebSi miznebis im axali wyebis dasaxvaze SeTanxmdnen, rogorebicaa bavSvTa sicocxle, ukiduresi siRaribis Semcireba da sufTa wylis xelmisawvdomoba. es miznebi iseTi samyaros safuZveli SeiZleba gaxdes, sadac individebsa da qveynebs TviTkmarobis Sansi eqnebaT. warsulSi, msgavsi saubrebi sakonferencio oTaxebSi imarTeboda, sadac ganviTarebis specialistebi im enaze saubrobdnen, romelic xalxis umravlesobisTvis bevrs arafers niSnavda. Cven SegviZlia am saubris profili ise gavafarTovoT, rom diskusiaSi miliardobiT adamianma miiRos monawileoba da imsjelos, Tu rogori unda iyos msoflio da ra aris saWiro amis misaRwevad. amis Semdeg maT SeuZliaT TavianT liderebs pasuxi mosTxovon im miznebis Sesrulebaze, romlebic daisaxa. me optimisti var. mjera, roca adamianebs esmiT, rom maT SeuZliaT bavSvs gadarCenis Sansi 10-jer da 20-jer gauzardon imis saSualebiT, rom problemebis mogvarebis martiv gzebze koncentrirdnen, isini metad aRar Seeguebian am problemebis gadauWrelobas. adamianebs ufro samarTliani msoflio sWirdebaT, da Zalian praqtikuli gziT, es samyaro Cvens xelTaa. n

progresi, romelsac Cven bolo ornaxevari aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi mivaRwieT, adasturebs, rom avadmyofobebi da siRaribe gardauvali ar aris

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso

msoflio gardamaval fazaSi kenneT qukieri

swrafi turi wlis TvalismomWreli statistikuri RirsSesaniSnaobebisTvis Tvalis Sesavlebad

damianTa mier samyaros aRqma 2015 wels radikalur cvlilebas ganicdis, ramdenadac wlebis ganmavlobaSi stabilurad damkvidrebuli warmodgenebi Tavdayira dgeba. gansakuTrebiT ekonomikasa da teqnologiebis sferoSi, weliwadi statistikuri RirsSesaniSnaobebis serias moitans. yvelaze TvalsaCino cvlilebebi geopolitikis sferoSi moxdeba. fiqlis gazis revoluciis wyalobiT, aSS saudis arabeTs, rogorc msoflioSi gazis udides mwarmoebels, ukan Camoitovebs (cxrili 1). saerTaSoriso urTierTobis bevri aspeqti damokidebulia aSS-is mier navTobisadmi wvdomaze da es yvelaferi axal konteqstSi iqneba danaxuli. saerTaSoriso energiis saagento prognozirebs, rom aSS-is sanavTobo upiratesoba 2050 wlamde da SemdgomSic gagrZeldeba. Tumca, azia kvlav izrdeba da zogierTi STambeWdavi cifri amas asaxavs. Capgemini-sa da RBC Wealth Management-is mixedviT, sainvesticio finansebis amerikis dawinaureba

mqone azieli individebis (isini, romlebic sul mcire milion aSS dolars floben) erTad aRebuli qoneba 2015 wels CrdiloeT amerikelebisas gadaaWarbebs. londonis ekonomikis skolis warmomadgenelma dani quam gamoiTvala msoflios ekonomikuri mizidulobis centri da igi miiCnevs, rom aziis zrdis wyalobiT, 70 wlis ganmavlobaSi, 1980-dan 2050 wlamde igi Sua atlantikis auzidan aRmosavleTiT, sadRac indoeTsa da CineTs Soris gadainacvlebs. 2015 wlisTvis, am didi „mogzaurobis“ Sua wertili sparseTis yuris Crdilo-aRmosavleT nawilSi mdebare iranis qalaq bandar-e-mahSahrs miaRwevs (cxrili 2). CineTs ori sakvanZo movlena elis: pirveli – mosalodnelia, rom qveynis gareT mimarTuli ucxouri investiciebi Semodinebebs gadaaWarbebs (grafa 3). es kargad asaxavs imas, Tu ra doneze momwifda CineTi, rogorc globaluri ekonomikuri Zala. meore – uswrebs ra aSS-s, sul mcire, msyidvelunarianobis mxriv (grafa 4), Tanamedrove istoriaSi pirvelad, CineTi weliwads msoflios udidesi ekonomikis rangSi daiwyebs. marTalia kritikulad ganwyobilebi amas arasrulyofil sazomad miiCneven, magram igi mainc aCvenebs, rom rogorc draidenma Tqva, `Zveli dro wavida/da droa axlis dawyebis~.

gezi aRmosavleTiT

aSS da saudis arabeTi, navTobis * warmoeba, mln bareli dReSi

msoflios ekonomikuri mizidulobis centri, 1980–2050

1980

2050 2015: bandaremahSahri, irani

saudis arabeTi

wyaro: Danny Quah

detalebi

CineTis pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi, $ mlrd

Semodineba

*The Economist-is prognozi

gadineba

wyaro: (UNCTAD)

aSS

1983 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15*

CineTi da amerika, mSp msyidvelunarianobis paritetis mixedviT, $ trln 15

kenneT qukieri: monacemTa redaqtori, The Economist

CineTis dawinaureba

aSS

*nedli/kondensirebuli/Txevadi gazi prognozi 2014 wlis zrdaze dayrdnobiT wyaro: saerTaSoriso energetikuli saagento 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

15†

CineTi

wyaro: saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi

0 00 01

14 15

saerTaSoriso

msoflio 2015 simdidris Semdeg, Zalaufleba modis. kvleviTi firmis IHS Jane’s-is mixedviT, 2015 wels Tavdacvis xarjebi azia-wynari okeanis regionSi, CineTis gamoklebiT, evrokavSiris xarjebs gauTanabrdeba (cxrili 5). teqnologia mudmivad cvalebadia. 2015 wels tabletebis gayidvebi personaluri kompiuterebis gayidvebs gadaaWarbebs (cxrili 6). aSS-Si internetSi ganTavsebuli reklamebidan miRebuli Semosavlebi gadauswrebs sareklamo Semosavlebs gazeTebidan, Jurnalebidan da bilbordebidan erTad aRebuls (cxrili 7). ucnauria isic, rom mobiluri telefonebis momxmarebelTa ricxvi msoflios mosaxleobas gadaaWarbebs (cxrili 8) – zogierTi adamiani mobiluri telefonis ramdenime nomriT sargeblobs, gansakuTrebiT iseT qveynebSi, sadac araTanabari dafarvaa. 2015 wels Facebook-s CineTis mosaxleobaze meti momxmarebeli eyoleba (cxrili 9). socialuri qseli rom qveyana iyos, igi yvelaze xalxmravali iqneboda. erTi RirsSesaniSnaoba 2015 wels ufro gangrZobiTobas asaxavs, vidre cvlilebas. janmrTeloba da survili Tu xels Seuwyobs, dedofali elisabed meore 11 seqtembers (cxrili 10) inglisis is monarqi gaxdeba, romelmac taxtze yvelaze didxans imsaxura – am dRes igi Tavis did bebias – dedofal viqtorias gadauswrebs. n

globalurad mobiluri telefonebis momxmareblebisa da msoflios mosaxleobis raodenoba, mlrd

7.5

msoflios mosaxleoba 7.0

6.5

6.0

mobiluri telefonebis momxmareblebi

5.5

wyari: Ericsson; gaero

2011

ZalTa balansi Tavdacvis xarjebi, $ mlrd

2012

2013

2014

2015

Facebook-lendi CineTis mosaxleoba da Facebook-is momxmareblebi, mlrd

1.4

275

evrokavSiri

1.2

250

CineTi

1.0 0.8

225

azia-wynari okeanis regioni (CineTis gamoklebiT)

200 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Facebook*

0.6 0.4

wyaro: IHS Jane’s

2010 2011 2012

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

samefo TamaSebi

monarqi, romelmac taxtze yvelaze didxans imefa; taxtze gatarebuli wlebis raodenoba

globalurad tabletebis gayidvebi da personaluri kompiuterebis gayidvebi, mln 350

*2014 wlis me-2 kvartlis prognozi wina wlis yovelTviuri aqtiuri momxmareblis zrdaze dayrdnobiT wyaro: gaero; Facebook

2010

2018 2019 2020

teqgardaqmna

desktop kompiuterebi da leptopebi *

300

59.4

200

56.1

tabletebi /hibridebi

150 100

50.4

50 2011

2012

*ar Sedis ultramsubuqi leptopebi wyaro: Gartner 2016 2013 2014 2015

44.4

7 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 92

98 2000 02

elisabed I

edvard I I I

henri I I I

jorj I I I

63.9* *2015 wlis bolos, Tu kvlav taxtze iqneba

63.6

250

ricxobrivad gadaaWarba

viqtoria elisabed I I

msoflio 2015

saerTaSoriso gumbaTis WeSmaritebani da svetis saubari msoflios mosaxleoba, mTliani raodenobis % 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

65 wlis

15 wlis

mamr. mdedr.

1970

mamr. mdedr.

2015

formaSecvlili msoflio jon parkeri

mosaxleobis piramidis dasasruli

jon parkeri: garemos redaqtori, The Economist

015 wels, demografebi, maswavleblebi da politikosebi mosaxleobis piramidaze saubars Sewyveten da mas amieridan `mosaxleobis gumbaTad~ moixsenieben. terminis cvlileba sazogadoebis formisa da struqturis siRrmiseul Secvlas asaxavs – procesi, romelic 50 welia mimdinareobs da jer mxolod sanaxevrod aris dasrulebuli. piramida sazogadoebis asakis struqturis xsnisa da vizualizaciis tradiciuli gzaa. Tu cxrils daxatavT da TiToeul asakobriv jgufs sxvadasxva zomis zolis saxiT warmoadgenT – yvelaze axalgazrdebs yvelaze dabla da yvelaze asakianebs – zemoT, Tanac gansxvavebuli sqesis warmomadgenlebs cal-calke daajgufebT, martiv formas miiRebT. 1970 wels es forma piramida iyo, radgan globalurad mosaxleobis udidesi segmenti axalgazrdebi iyvnen (0-5 wlamde asakis mosaxleoba sruli Semadgenlobis 14 %-s Seadgenda). mas moyveboda axalgazrdebis momdevno asakobrivi jgufi (6-10 wlamde, 13 %) da ase Semdeg, zemoT da zemoT, sanam mivadgebodiT 85-wels gadacilebulebs, romelTa raodenoba imdenad mcire iyo, rom grafaze am jgufis aRmniSvneli zoli wertiliviT patara Canda (marcxniv, ix. cxrili). piramida adamianTa modgmis ricxovnobis damaxasiaTebeli iyo im droidan moyolebuli, roca organizebuli sazogadoebebi gaCnda. radganac sicocxlis xangrZlivoba ufro mokle, xolo sikvdilianoba gacilebiT maRali iyo, bavSvebis jgufi yovelTvis yvelaze mravalricxovani gaxldaT, xolo asakovani xalxisa – yvelaze mcire. 1700 wels, inglisis mosaxleobis monacemTa cxrilic zustad piramidis formisaa. magram daxedeT 2015 wels msoflios mosaxleobis monacemTa cxrils: igi vaSingtonSi mdebare kapitoliumis gumbaTs (Sua cxrili) ufro waagavs. yvelaze mcirewlovani bavSvebi kvlav udidesi jgufia, magram igi axla mosaxleobis 10%-s Seadgens, da mis zemoTac TiTqmis aseTive didi jgufebis gundi modis – TiToeuli 9.5%-iani wiliT. asakobrivi jgufebi SesamCnev Semcirebas mxolod 40-wlis asakTan iwyeben, ise rom, saerTo raodenobis Semcireba gacilebiT maRla iwyeba, vidre piramidis SemTxvevaSi. 1970 wels yvelaze patarebi mosaxleobis ara mxolod udidesi, aramed

mamr. mdedr.

wyaro: UN

2060

yvelaze swrafad mzardi jgufic iyo, magram 1970 da 2015 wlebis ganmavlobaSi, 0-dan 19 wlamde asakis mosaxleoba mxolod 42%-iT gaizarda – maSin, roca 2039 wlamde asakis jgufma – 128%-iT moimata. es jgufi orjer met adamians aerTianebs, vidre 20 wlamde asakis jgufi. axla 85 wels gadacilebuli mosaxleobis raodenoba 50 milionia. ise rom, 2015 wlis gumbaTi wvetiania. 1970-2015 wlebSi globalur mosaxleobaze mTavar gavlenas Sobadobis tempi axdenda – anu is, Tu ramden Svils aCenda qali sicocxlis manZilze. droTa ganmavlobaSi es maCvenebeli dramatulad Semcirda, rac imas niSnavs, rom msoflioSi mravalricxovani ojaxebis Seqmnis tendencia patara ojaxebis tendenciam Secvala. Tumca 2015-2060 wlebSi mosaxleobaze yvelaze did gavlenas daberebis faqtori moaxdens. ufro patara ojaxebi ukve norma xdeba, Sobadoba mcirdeba da TiTqmis yoveli adamiani mSobelze ufro xangrZlivad cocxlobs – es suraTi gansakuTrebiT mkveTrad gamoxatuli ganviTarebad qveynebSia. ise rom, 2060 wlisTvis gumbaTi ukve `mosulic~ iqneba da `wasulic~, da mosaxleobis monacemTa forma ufro svetis (an Zveli stilis futkris skis) formas miiRebs. ZirTan igi ufro sqeli iqneba da wverosken moiRuneba. dedamiwaze mosaxleobis raodenoba matebas ganagrZobs da 2015 wlis 7.2 miliardidan 2060 wels 9.5 miliardamde gaizrdeba. Tumca msoflio bankis warmomadgenlebis – emi suzukis da volfgang fengleris mixedviT, 2060 wels, am damatebuli 2.2 miliardis ori mesamedi ufro axalgazrda mosaxleoba ki ara, 40-79-wlianTa asakobrivi jgufi iqneba. bolo, yvelaze asakovani segmentis zrda gansakuTrebiT TvalsaCinoa. 2015-2060 wlebSi, 60-79 wlis adamianebis raodenoba 1.2 miliardiT, anu 131%-iT gaizrdeba, rac xuTjer aRemateba bavSvebisa da Tineijerebis zrdis temps. es ukanaskneli mxolod 220 milioniT, anu 9%-iT gaizrdeba. uxuces adamianTa raodenoba maqsimalurad swrafad gaizrdeba (181%-iT 2015-2060 wlebSi), magram yvelaze dabali sawyisi poziciidan, rac mTlianobaSi srul moculobas bevrs verafers Sematebs. mTeli istoriis manZilze adamianebi iseT sazogadoebebSi cxovrobdnen, sadac bavSvebi dominirebdnen (yovel SemTxvevaSi, cifrebSi). 2016 wlisTvis bavSvebi odnavRa iqnebian ufro metni, vidre nebismieri sxva, 65 wlamde asakobrivi jgufi, xolo mSoblebisa da bebia-babuebis mixedva iseTive didi, ufro sworad, gacilebiT didi socialuri valdebuleba gaxdeba, vidre Svilebisa da SviliSvilebis gazrda. 2015 weli, metnaklebad, am saocari transformaciis Sua wertilia. n

msoflio 2015

msoflio ricxvebSi qveynebi evropa avstria 84 belgia 84 bulgareTi 84 xorvatia 84 CexeTis respublika 84 dania 84 estoneTi 84 fineTi 84 safrangeTi 84 germania 85 saberZneTi 85 ungreTi 85

irlandia 85 italia 85 latvia 85 litva 85 niderlandebi 85 norvegia 86 poloneTi 86 portugalia 86 rumineTi 86 ruseTi 86 slovakeTi 86 slovenia 86 espaneTi 86 SvedeTi 87

yvelaze swrafad mzardi qveynebi # qveyana 1. papua-axali gvinea

Sveicaria 87 TurqeTi 87 ukraina 87 gaerTianebuli samefo 87 azia avstralia 87 bangladeSi 87 CineTi 87 hong-kongi 88 indoeTi 88 indonezia 88 iaponia 88

yazaxeTi 88 malaizia 88 axali zelandia 88 pakistani 88 filipinebi 89 singapuri 89 samxreT korea 89 Sri-lanka 89 taivani 89 tailandi 89 uzbekeTi 89 vietnami 89

3. kongo (demokratiuli respublika)

8.6

4. TurqmeneTi

8.5

5. eritrea

8.3

6. monRoleTi

8.0

7. laosi

7.7

8. mozambiki

7.6

9. kongo (brazavile)

7.4

10. butani

7.3

11. kamboja

7.3

12. tanzania

7.3

imis niSnad, rom msoflios udidesi ganviTarebadi bazrebisTvis mZime droa, vercerTi maTgani moxvda 2015 wlis ekonomikurad yvelaze swrafad mzard qveyanaTa topaTeulSi. BRICS (brazilia, ruseTi, indoeTi, CineTi da samxreT afrika),CIVETS (kolumbia, indonezia, vietnami, egvipte, TurqeTi da samxreT afrika), MINT (meqsika, indonezia, nigeria da TurqeTi) - vercerTi moxvda im siaSi, sadac bumis stadiaze myof industriaSi investirebis xarjze patara bazrebi dominireben. papua-axali gvinea siis saTaveSia, didi Exxon Mobil LNG-is proeqtis erTjeradi investirebis wyalobiT, romelmac funqcionireba 2014 wels daiwyo. makao Tavisi licenzirebuli samorineebis saSualebiT moziduli azartuli moTamaSeebis `niaRvriT~ isazrdoebs. darCenili qveynebis umravlesobaSi zrdas resursebis mopoveba umagrebs zurgs, eTiopiis spilenZisa da oqros mopovebis, TurqmeneTisa da tanzaniis bunebrivi gazis sabadoebis damuSavebis, kongos (brazavili) navTobis mopovebis CaTvliT. butanis mTagoriani landSafti qveyanas bunebriv upiratesobas aZlevs hidroeleqtroenergiis warmoebisa da eqsportis, gansakuTrebiT indoeTSi, eqsportirebis kuTxiT. bunebrivi resursebis armqone qveynebs Sorisaa laosi, sadac turizmi da tailandis ekonomikuri gamococxleba daexmareba ekonomikur zrdas, da kamboja, romlisTvisac safeiqro warmoeba industriis mTavari mamoZravebeli Zalaa. 2015 prognozi, Tu sxvagvarad araa miTiTebuli. inflacia: saSualo wliuri maCvenebeli. mSp dolarebSi gaangariSebulia 2015 wlis dolaris gacvliTi kursis prognozis mixedviT (mSp msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis (mup) mixedviT naCvenebia frCxilebSi). yvela ricxvi gamartivebulia damrgvalebis gziT. london@eiu.com wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economist

erayi 92 israeli 92 iordania 92 kenia 93 libani 93 libia 93 maroko 93 nigeria 93 saudis arabeTi 93 samxreT afrika 93 siria 93 zimbabve 93

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika alJiri 92 angola 92 kameruni 92 egvipte 92 eTiopia 92 irani 92

das. evropa

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

14.8 9.0

laTinuri amerika argentina 90 bolivia 90 brazilia 90 Cile 91 kolumbia 91 kuba 91 ekvadori 91

paragvai 91 peru 91 urugvai 91 venesuela 91

msoflio mSp zrda*, 2015%

mSp zrda, %

2. makao

CrdiloeT amerika kanada 90 meqsika 90 SeerTebuli Statebi 90

Cr. amerika

3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

aRm. evropa

2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

iaponia

Sua aRm./ Cr. afrika

>4% >4% 2–4% >4% 2–4% <2% >4% 2–4% >4% >4% <2% 2–4% >4% <2% 2–4% 2–4% <2% 2–4% <2% <2% <2%

laT. amerika

2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

4. 1 4. 1 4. 4.1 11 4. 4.1

azia (iap. garda)

6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

avstralia

samx. afrika

* sabazro gacvliTi kursiT

krizisidan gamosvlis ori ambavi

dasaqmeba, aSS da evrozona, 1-li kvartali, 2008=100 103 aSS evrozona 103 102 103 103 102 101 103 103 102 103 102 101 100 102 102 101 102 100 101 99 101 100 101 100 101 99 100 98 100 99 100 99 98 97 99 99 98 98 99 97 96 98 98 97 98 97 96 95 97 97 96 97 96 95 94 96 96 95 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 96 95 94 95 95 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 94 95 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 94 2009kvartlis 2010 prognozi 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* * 94 20142008 wlis me-3 94 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014* 2014* 2015* 2015* 94 2008 wyaro: aSS-is SromiTi 2008 2009 2010 2011 statistikis 2012 2013 biuro; 2014*evrostati 2015*

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

brazilia, ruseTi, indoeTi, CineTi (BRIC) mTliani investiciebi, mSp-is %, 2008=100 115 115 115 110 115 110 115 115 110 105 115 110 105 110 110 105 100 110 105 100 105 105 100 95 105 100 100 95 100 95 100 90 95 90 95 95 90 85 95 90 85 90 90 85 80 90 85 80 85 85 80 85 80 80 80

2008

2009

brazilia CineTi

indoeTi

2010

2013

2011

2012

ruseTi

2014* 2015*

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2009 2012 2013 2015* wyaro:2011 statistikis saagentoebi; 2008 prognozis 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 erovnuli 2013 2014* 2014* 2015* 80 2008 Haver Analytics 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

msoflio 2015

qveynebi msoflio ricxvebSi

eqsporti ruseTSi, mTliani eqsportis %, 2015

xorvatia

mSp-s zrda

mSp erT sulze

evropa: CrdiloeTis zemoqmedeba

0.8% 13,230 $ (mup 21,690 $)

inflacia

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

mosaxleoba

1.7% -4.4 4.2 milioni

10 8 6 4

irlandia

portugalia

gaerT. samefo

espaneTi

luqsemburgi

belgia

saberZneTi

holandia

safrangeTi

dania

kviprosi

malta

SvedeTi

bulgareTi

italia

slovakeTi

ungreTi

rumineTi

avstria

germania

xorvatia

slovenia

CexeTis resp.

fineTi

poloneTi

estoneTi

litva

latvia

2 0

evropa avstria

bulgareTi 1.6%

mSp-s zrda

49,870 $ (mup 46,460 $) -2.1

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

8.6 milioni

mosaxleoba

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

7 memarcxene-centristuli – 6 social-demokratiuli partiisa 5 da memarjvene-centristuli 4 – avstriis saxalxo partiis 3 mzardi sammmarTvel koalicias 2 Tavrobo valebi bevris miRwevaSi 1 xels SeuSlis. evroskeptikosi 0 `narCenebi~ partiebis gavleniani -1 arCevanis SesaZleblobebs kidev -2 mainc, mTavufro SezRudavs. da -3 roba reformebis kuTxiT win wava, -4 mewarmeobis raTa ganaTlebisa da -5 ganviTarebis saSualebiT, bizne-6 gazardos. sis konkurentianoba avstria mravalricxovani dasav20 luri qveynebidan erT-erTia, 18 romelic cdilobs tradiciuli 16 14 warmoebidan maRalteqnologiur 12 Tumca ekonomikaze gadavides, progresi neli iqneba.10 8 6 4 2 0

47,810 $ (mup 44,890 $)

1.2%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s4%)

10.7 milioni

bulgareTi: win da zemoT 7

mSp, % cvlileba sabiujeto balansi, mSp-is %

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

bolo xuTi wlis ganmavlobaSi 2 qveyanam daaxloebiT imdenive 1 mTavrobis weli gaatara arCeuli gareSe, ramdenic masTan erTad, 0 rac daqucmacebuli socialuri da politikuri struqturis -1 simptomia, romelic lingvisturi Temis irgvliv-2dezintegraciasTan `arSiyobs~.-3axalma, oTxi partiisgan Semdgarma centris-4 tul-memarjvene federalurma mTavrobam Tavisi reformistuli dRis wesrigiT xelisufleba 2014 wlis oqtomberSi Caibara. Tumca is, rom koaliciaSi socialisturi partia ver moxvda, imas niSnavs, rom axal koalicias viwro xedva aqvs da gavlenian opozicias gadaawydeba. didi valiT da umuSevrobiT xelfexSekruli ekonomika mxolod odnav waiwevs win.

CexeTisrespublika mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

2.7% 17,940 $ (mup 29,150 $)

inflacia

1.9%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-2.3 10.8 milioni

didi koalicia premier-ministr bohuslav sobotkas meTaurobiT, romelic CexeTis memarcxenesocial-demokratiul partias warmoadgens, gaumjobesebuli ekonomikiTa da susti opoziciiT sargeblobs. briuselis miTiTebasTan erTad, – samoqalaqo seqtorze politikuri gavlena ar gamoiyenos – mTavroba progress miaRwevs Sromis bazris reformis, saxelmwifo pensiebis, keTildReobisa da sagadasaxado sistemebis kuTxiT. maRali samTavrobo da samomxmareblo xarjebi evrokavSiris savaWro partniorebis ekonomikis nel zrdasTan erTad, qveynis ekonomikas mcire biZgs miscems. Tvali adevneT: : saswaulebis weli. qarizmatulma finansTa ministrma andrei babim, SesaZloa yvelaferi gaafuWos imiT, rom igi Tavisi partiisTvis ANO 2011, romelic CexeTis memarcxenesocial-demokratiuli partiis mTavari koaliciuri partnioria, ufro TvalsaCino rols eZebs.

3 1

dania

mSp-s zrda

1.3 %

-1

mSp erT sulze

-2

inflacia

-3

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-4

mosaxleoba

2017

2016

2015

-6

2014

-5

2013

2012

mosaxleoba

-1.9

2011

inflacia

2010

mSp erT sulze

1.2%

2009

mSp-s zrda

-1.5 7.2 milioni

evropis yvela mmarTvel partias 2014 wlis evropis parlamentis arCevnebze problemebi Seeqmna, Tumca maSindeli premier-ministris – plamen oreSarskisTvis da misi memarcxene koaliciuri mTavrobisTvis es ukve „bolo wveTi“ iyo. agvistos TveSi mis gadadgomas oqtomberSi vadamdeli arCevnebis daniSvna mohyva, romelmac pluralizmi ki moitana, magram centristulmemarjvene partiisTvis (`moqalaqeebi bulgareTis evropuli ganviTarebisaTvis~) umravlesoba ver moipova, romelsac boiko borisovi xelmZRvanelobs. misi Tanamdebobaze yofnis pirveli vada (2009-2013 wlebSi) saprotesto gamosvlebis Sedegad maleve dasrulda. nebismier SemTxvevaSi, axali mTavroba mkacr politikaze metad ekonomikur zrdas mianiWebs upiratesobas, raTa sazogadoebrivi ganwyoba daaSoSminos. amas ekonomikac zomieri, magram mdgradi zrdiT upasuxebs. Tvali adevneT: amomavali varskvlavebi. ganebivrebuli, „primadona“ fexburTelebis momavali Taoba zafxulSi `fifas~ evropul Cempionatze Cvidmetwlianebs Soris `sarZeve kbilebs daicvlis“.

2008

belgia

1.2%

2017

mosaxleoba

inflacia

2016

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

7,630 $ (mup 15,010 $)

1.9%

2015

inflacia

2.5%

mSp erT sulze

2014

mSp erT sulze

2013

mSp-s zrda

arapopularuli koaliciuri mTavroba, premier-ministr zoran milanoviCis meTaurobiT, romelic social-demokratiuli partiis lideria, `koWlobiT~ miva arCevnebamde, romelic savaraudod 2015 wlis dekemberSi gaimarTeba. igi unda gaumklavdes briuselis mier Tavsmoxveul mkacr politikas, mTavrobis zeda doneze korufciis braldebebs da eqvswlian recesias. am arasaxarbielo fonze, romelic opoziciasac gulze dardad awevs, adgili aqvs serb umciresobasTan daZabulobis SemaSfoTebel zrdas, da aseve ukiduresi memarjveneebis aRzevebas. arCevnebi situacias swrafad ver moagvarebs, magram axalma gundma SesaZloa win waiwios didi xnis win dayovnebuli ekonomikuri reformebis gatarebis kuTxiT.

tebuli, gadarCeba seqtembris arCevnebamde, magram ara mas mere. axali gundi, romelic didi albaTobiT centristi memarjveneebisgan dakompleqtebuli koalicia iqneba, kvlav frTxil fiskalur kontrolsa da zrdaze orientirebuli politikis narevs ganaxorcielebs. momxmarebelTa ndoba gaizrdeba, magram 2008 wlis sabinao krizisis dros gaCenili vali kvlav seriozuli problemaa, xolo samomxmareblo da biznesis xarjviTi politika nel-nela gaumjobesdeba.

estoneTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

3.0% 20,110 $ (mup 28,790 $)

inflacia

2.7%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-0.2 1.3 milioni

martis saparlamento arCevnebis Sedegebis prognozireba metismetad rTulia, magram politikis Semdgomi mimarTuleba mocemulia: ufro meti fiskaluri simkacre. sakredito krizisis dartymisa da evrozonis Tanmdevi krizisis Semdeg, momdevno mTavroba koncentrirdeba biujetis balansis mkacr dacvaze, Tumca periodulad gadaRlili sazogadoebis gulis mosagebad, uecar did xarjebzec ar ityvis uars. kontrastuli perspeqtiva ZiriTad sagareo bazrebze, – pozitiuri SvedeTSi, negatiuri ruseTSi –mokrZalebuli ekonomikuri stimulis tolfasi iqneba.

fineTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

1.2% 49,920 $ (mup 41,560 $)

inflacia

1.6%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.8 5.5 milioni

konservatiuli nacionaluri koaliciuri partia, romelic mTavrobas xelmZRvanelobs, savaraudod aprilis saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg dominantur pozicias SeinarCunebs, Tumca SesaZloa mxardaWeris sanacvlod raRacis gaReba mouwios. premierministrma aleqsandr stubma 2014 wels simkacris politikidan zrdisken gadauxvia da am kurss SeinarCunebs. ekonomika amas gamoexmaureba, Tumca mxolod – mokrZalebulad. Tvali adevneT: koalicia iSleba. Crdilo-dasavleT napirze axali atomuri reaqtoris mSeneblobis gegma, romelic wina administraciam SeaCera, axali koaliciis mier parlaments gadaegzavneba.

59,250 $ (mup 45,020 $) 1.3% -3.2 5.7 milioni

odnav memarcxene koaliciuri mTavroba, romelic skandalebiTa da wevrTa dakargviT aris dasus-

safrangeTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

0.8% 43,550 $ (mup 40, 380 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

0.8% -3.9 65.0 milioni

inflacia

0.2%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-2.4

11.1 milioni

ramdenimewliani ekonomikuri `armagedonis~ Semdeg, 2015 wels, bolos d abolos stabilurobis dro dadgeba. ekonomika daaxloebiT 2.3%-iT gaizrdeba da deflacia dasruldeba. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, es yvelaferi mtkivneulad nacnobi iqneba. mmarTveli aliansi memarcxene `pasoks~ da memarjvene `axal demokratebs~ Soris mas Semdeg daiSleba, rac axali prezidentis asarCevad saWiro superumravlesobis Sekreba ver moxerxdeba. meamboxe partia `siriza~,

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

2015 wlis pirovneba

33,600 $ (mup 34,840 $)

inflacia

0.4%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-3.0

4.7 milioni

memarjvene-centristul `fine geliisa~ da memarcxene-centristuli leiboristuli partiisgan Semdgar koaliciur mTavrobas saparlamento umravlesoba aqvs. igi mas komfortul mdgomareobas Seuqmnis momavali 2016 wlis arCevnebis dros. Tumca, igi, rogorc sisxlisgan, ise icleba sazogadoebrivi mxardaWerisgan da SesaZloa iZulebuli gaxdes vadamdeli arCevnebi daniSnos. irlandiis `dacemam~ da `wamodgomam~ sakredito krizisis Semdeg, amomrCevlebi dabneuli datova – imdenad, rom bevri warmoudgeneli scenaridan yvelaze savaraudoa koaliciis Seqmna istoriulad antagonistur `fine gelis~ da `fiana feils~ Soris. politika rom gverdze gadavdoT, ekonomika bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi axla saukeTeso mdgomareobaSia.

61.1 milioni

latvia mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

3.7% 16,610 $ (mup 21,340 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

1.9% 0.1 2.0 milioni

premier-ministri laimdota strauiuma, romelic 2014 wlis ianvarSi misi winamorbedi mTavrobis kolafsis Semdeg `darajad~ `daamontaJes~, mudmivi `mowyobiloba~ gaxda, rodesac misma sampartiulma centristulmemarjvene koaliciam 2014 wlis arCevnebi mandatiT xelSi daasrula. latviis ekonomika ruseTis mier evropis sasoflo-sameurneo produqciaze dawesebuli sanqciebis TvalsaCino msxverplia. Harmony Centre-ma, romelic rusulenovan umciresobas warmoadgens, arCevnebi waago. amis miuxedavad, ruseTis sanqciebi Tu ar daabrkolebs, krizisis mimdinareoba niSnavs, rom (krizisis cvalebadi buneba ruseT-evro-

-5 -10

2014

2015

-20

2012

-15

2013

ekonomika „valebSi ixrCoba“ da maRali umuSevroba boWavs. premier-ministr mateo rencis, romelic memarcxene-centristuli demokratiuli partiidanaa, surs es sakiTxebi moagvaros, magram naklebad savaraudoa, rom amis Sansi mieces. arCevnebi 2018 wlamde mosalodneli ar aris, Tumca 2015 wels igi namdvilad Catardeba, radgan koalicia daiSleba. Tuki saarCevno reformebis kanonproeqti ar damtkicdeba, savaraudod, airCeven parlaments, sadac umravlesoba arcerT partias ar eqneba. Senelebuli evropis fonze, ekonomika zrdis ganaxlebisTvis brZolas ganagrZobs. Tvali adevneT: konkursi marTlweraSi. Tuki mister rencis fokusis Catareba dasWirdeba, mas SeuZlia rCevebi jadoqrobis msoflio Cempionatze miiRos, romelic ivlisis TveSi riminiSi gaimarTeba.

0.6% -3.0

kavSiris urTierTobebSi niSnavs, rom araferia naTeli), latviis ekonomikis 2008/2009 wlebis finansuri krizisidan gamosvla gagrZeldeba.

litva mSp-s 350 zrda

2.7%

mSp erT sulze

16,680 $ (mup 28,060 $)

340

inflacia

3.3%

330 biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.8 2.9 milioni

320

310 social-demokratiuli partiis lideri algirdas buskeviCusi 300 ideologiurad mravalferovan 290 koalicias xelmZRvanelobs, Tum280yvela partia SeTanxmebulia ca fundamentur mimarTulebebze: 270 Ria ekonomika, sagareo politi260 kuTxiT dasavleTTan axlo kis aliansi, evropuli integraciisTvis mtkice mxardaWera. energousafrTxoeba prioritetuli iqneba; ruseTi qveyanas saWiro gazis 100%-s awvdis. qveynis ekonomika arsebiTad ufro swrafad gaizrdeba, vidre misi evropeli partniorebisa. Tvali adevneT: gadacvlili banknotebi. 1 ianvars, rodesac liti gzas evros dauTmobs, litva evrozonis me-19 wevri gaxdeba.

2017

2.3% 21,440 $ (mup 27,090 $)

50,450 $ (mup 49,720 $)

inflacia

mSp erT sulze

0.3%

2016

mSp erT sulze

3.0%

mSp, % cvlileba

mSp-s zrda

2015

mSp-s zrda

latvia: dabrunda!

2014

saberZneTi

irlandia

italia

2013

„samudamod alyaSemortymul“ germanias revanSistuli ruseTidan da ekonomikurad dasustebuli evropidan cudi ambebi mosdis. kancler angela merkels, romelic faqtobrivad evrokavSiris spikeria, akavebs amomrCeveli, romelsac ar surs, rom evros daxmarebis xeli gauwodos an ruseTs aRudges win. Zalauflebis mkacri kontroli qalbaton merkels STambeWdav gavlenas aniWebs, magram orive frontze igi sifrTxiles gamoiCens. sifxizle da yuradReba iqneba aseve germaniis SigniT ekonomikuri politikis damaxasiaTebeli niSani, gansakuTrebiT – fiskalur sakiTxebSi, xolo zrda mokrZalebuli iqneba. Tvali adevneT: asprocentiani gamarjveba. SesaZloa mTavrobam budestagSi (germaniis umaRlesi sakanonmdeblo organo) bremenisa da hamburgis federaciebSi gamarTuli arCevnebis wyalobiT umravlesoba moipovos.

viqtor orbani – meore vadiT arCeuli mTavrobis xelmZRvaneli `fideSis~ partiidan superumravlesobas gamoiyenebs, raTa nacionalisturi da socialisturkonservatiuli dRis wesrigi cxovrebaSi ganaxorcielos da ar Seepuos evrokavSiris kritikul pozicias kanonebis ugulebelyofasTan dakavSirebiT. fokusSi moeqceva gadasaxadebis gadatana daqiravebulebidan biznesze, rac fasebs dawevs da dasaqmebas gazrdis, magram yvelaferi es briuselidan dawesebuli fiskaluri SezRudvebis pirobebSi moxdeba. Sida moxmareba ekonomikur zrdas daexmareba, ramdenadac ungreTis evropuli eqsportis bazrebs gasaWiri adgaT. Tvali adevneT: rusuli kavSirebi. gazis kontraqti ruseTTan, romelic ungreTis moTxovnis 80% amaragebs, 2015 wels iwureba da SesaZloa misi ganaxleba gaZneldes, Tuki ukrainis irgvliv daZabuloba gagrZeldeba.

2011

0.8 81.3 milioni

-2.8 9.9 milioni

2012

mosaxleoba

2010

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2.8%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2011

1.5%

inflacia

2009

47, 350 $ (mup 47, 290 $)

inflacia

2.4% 13,680 $ (mup 21,840 $)

2010

1.6%

mSp erT sulze

2008

mSp-s zrda

ungreTi mSp-s zrda

2015 wels, TurqeTis premier-ministris ahmed daviToRlus mTavari misia misi winamorbedis – qveynis amJamindeli prezidentis rejeb taip erdoRanisTThe main role in 201 vis aRmasrulebeli Zalauflebis gadacemis momzadeba iqneba. amas konstituciis reforma sWirdeba, romelic ivnisis arCevnebSi xmaTa ori mesamedis mopovebazea damokidebuli. xelisuflebaSi myof samarTlianobisa da ganviTarebis partias xmebi daakldeba, Tumca sapyrobileSi myof, kanongareSed gamocxadebuli qurTuli muSaTa partiis liderTan – abdula ojalanTan samSvidobo molaparakebebis warmatebuli dasruleba proqurTuli deputatebis mxardaWeras moapovebinebs, rac xmaTa saWiro raodenobas gaunaRdebs.

2009

germania

romelic saxalxo ukmayofilebiT isargeblebs, riggareSe arCevnebSi xmaTa umravlesobas aiRebs, magram mTavrobaSi mosasvlelad partniorebi ar eyoleba. fiskaluri, finansuri da struqturuli reformebis sferoebSi dafiqsirdeba arastabiluri, magram mainc erTgvari progresi.

2008

mTavrobaSi arsebuli daZabuloba, evropaSi mimdinare sabiujeto disciplina, `zrdis xelSewyobis~ sapirispirod saxeldebuli debatebis asaxvaa. disciplinis momxreebi asparezze mas Semdeg gamovidnen, rac prezidentma fransua olandma 2014 wlis Sua periodSi `zrdis xelSewyobis~ afeTqeba CaaxSo. premier-ministri manuel valsi bizness „gaearSiya“ da reformebs dapirda, im mizniT, rom golisturi ekonomikisTvis anglo-saqsonuri moqniloba SeeSvelebina. Tumca igi, prezidentis msgavsad, sazogadoebriv mxardaWeras swrafad dakargavs. amis miuxedavad, ekonomika sicocxlis sust niSnebs aCvenebs.

mSp erT sulze

msoflio ricxvebSi qveynebi

msoflio 2015

niderlandebi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

1.3% 50,870 $ (mup 48,630 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

1.3% -2.2 16.9 milioni

qveynebi msoflio ricxvebSi

martSi, adgilobrivi arCevnebis Sedegebi memarjvene-centristi liberalebisa da memarcxene-centristi leiboristuli partiis didi koaliciisTvis asparezs `mosufTavebuls~ datovebs, rac ekonomikur reformebs gzas gauxsnis. holandiur politikaSi ocwliani destruqciuli daqucmacebulobis Semdeg, koalicia konsensusze farTod orientirebul mTavrobasTan dabrunebas warmoadgens. liberalebi fokusirdebian biznesis xelSemwyob RinisZiebebze, xolo leiboristebi – samuSao pirobebis gaumjobesebaze, magram orive mkacri biujetis farglebSi. ekonomika evropas „mikrokosmosSi“ warmoaCens: cotaTi ufro energiuli zrda da umuSevrobis neli Semcireba.

norvegia 2.5% 107,280 $ (mup 70,770 $) 2.4% 12 5.1 milioni

umciresobis koalicia ori centristuli partiis araformaluri mxardaWeriT marTavs qveyanas, romelic SezRudavs `progresis partiis~ (koaliciis axalgazrda partnior konservatorebTan erTad) ufro radikalur antiimigraciul tendenciebs. mTavroba qveynis maRali sagadasaxado garemos mosawesrigeblad „yinuls daZravs“, Seamcirebs ra sagadasaxado tvirTs kompaniebze. samomxmareblo xarjva da energoindustria ganapirobebs ekonomikis zrdas im tempiT, rac evropul saSualo maCvenebels bevrad uswrebs. xolo ofSorze fokusirebiT, navTobidan gazze gadasvla daCqardeba.

inflacia

0.5%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-3.0

mosaxleoba

10.5 milioni

400

rumineTi mSp-s 380 zrda

3.0%

mSp erT sulze

9,180 $ (mup 14,620 $)

inflacia

2.4%

360

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-1.8

340

2013

2011

rumineTi: meti fuli sabiujeto Semosavlebi, mSp-is % 34

2014

slovenia mSp-s zrda

1.5%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

mSp-s zrda

1.0%

mosaxleoba

-3.0 2.1 milioni

14,820 $ (mup 25,810 $)

inflacia

7.3%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-0.2 141.8 milioni

recesia, inflacia da sainvesticio `gvalva~, ruseTis mier ukrainis teritoriebis mitacebaSi gadaxdili `fasia~ da prezidenti vladimir putini dainaxavs, rom es aris is sazRauri, rac msoflioSi ruseTis adgilis mosapoveblad da mis `axlo samezobloSi~ Tavdacvis misaRwevad daujda. ukrainis mimarT putinis moqmedebebma misi popularoba zenitamde aiyvana. jer kidev ucnobia, rodesac dasavleTis pasuxi ruseTis SeWraze safules daetyoba da qveynis SigniT cxovrebis done daecema, mosaxleoba am enTuziazms SeinarCunebs Tu ara. mxardaWeram batoni putini SesaZloa acdunos da mas Semdgomi eqspansiis survili gauCndes ukrainaSi da mis iqiTac. asea Tu ise, kontroli gamkacrdeba, radgan qveyanaSi gansxvavebuli ganwyoba izrdeba. Tvali adevneT: gaerTianebulebi. evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiri, romelic ruseTs yazaxeTsa da belarusiasTan SeaerTebs, 1 ianvridan Seva ZalaSi. igi 170 milion adamians da 2.4 trilioni amerikuli dolaris Rirebulebis wliur gamoSvebas aerTianebs.

slovakeTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

1.0% 22,560 $ (mup 29,030 $)

inflacia

ruseTi

2.5% 18,190 $ (mup 28,620 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

2013

marTalia, ruseTis mier evropis soflis meurneobaze dawesebulma sapasuxo sanqciebma poloneTis ekonomika daazarala, magram rusulma agresiam ukrainaSi memarjvene-centristul `samoqalaqo platformis~ (PO) da misi koaliciis partnioris – agraruli `polonel glexTa partiis~ mimarT mxardaWera gazarda. miuxedavad amisa, PO-s Svidwliani mmarTveloba, romlis umetesi drois ganmavlobaSi misi lideri donald tuski iyo (2014 wlis noemberSi datova posti da evrosabWos prezidenti gaxda), savaraudod sakmarisi aRmoCndeba amomrCevlisTvis, roca isini 2015 wlis bolos xmis misace-

2012

38.4 milioni

2012

-1.5

2010

mosaxleoba

1.2%

2011

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2010

inflacia

2009

3.5% 14, 450 $ (mup 25,770 $)

2009

mSp erT sulze

premier-ministri viqtor ponta da320 misi memarcxene-centristuli mTavroba 2016 wlis arCevnebis win reformis Temas frTxilad miudgeba. 2014 wlis bolos, batoni ponta saprezidento maraTonSi damarcxda, roca memarjvenecentristma kandidatma klaus

2008

mSp-s zrda

21.6 milioni

daayenebs. ruseTTan konfrontaciam SesaZloa slovakeTis ekonomika azaralos, da evropis sakuTarma mokrZalebulma perspeqtivebma zrda SezRudos, Tumca man SesaZloa evrokavSiris saSualo maCvenebels mainc gadaaWarbos.

mSp erT sulze

`social-demokratiuli partiisa~ da `saxalxo partiis~ memarjvene-centristuli koalicia `ekonomikis gamoxsnis~ mtkivneuli politikis saSualebiT manevrirebda. axla igi ekonomikuri zrdis dabrunebas meTvalyureobs, Tumca mkacri mdgradi simkacris, sabanko seqtoris arastabilurobisa da didi valis pirobebSi. aman igi SesaZloa ukan – xelisuflebaSic ki daabrunos oqtombris arCevnebis Sedegad, miuxedavad imisa, rom favoriti opoziciuri socialisturi partiaa. marTalia evrokavSiri da saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi ukve aRar aris misi meurve, magram mTavroba valis stabilurobasa da sabiujeto deficitis Semcirebaze fokusirebas SeinarCunebs. mosalodnelia mokrZalebuli zrda, romelic energiul eqsportsa da adgilobrivi moTxovnis gaumjobesebas emyareba, Tumca myife evrozona safrTxed rCeba.

mosaxleoba

poloneTi

iohanisma meore turSi gamarjveba gainaRda. baton iohaniss, romelic eTnikurad germanuli umciresobis warmomadgenelia, mouwevs SeebrZolos samTavrobo meqrTameobas – rac baton pontas moulodneli damarcxebis mTavari mizezia – da biznesis mimarT politika ufro megobruli gaxados. problemuri 2014 wlis Semdeg, ekonomika Zalebs moikrebs.

22,730 $ (mup 27,140 $)

2015

mosaxleoba

mSp erT sulze

2017

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

0.8%

2014

inflacia

mSp-s zrda

2016

mSp erT sulze

portugalia

2015

mSp-s zrda

mad gaeSurebian. `kanonisa da samarTlianobis partia~, romlis rTuli mmarTveloba 2005-2007 wlebSi TiTqmis mexsierebidan gaqra, favoritia. destruqciuli ruseTi, susti evrozona da mkacri biujeti ekonomikur perspeqtivebs gansazRvraven.

msoflio 2015

1.6 % -2.6 5.4 milioni

slovakeTis mTavroba (mimarTuleba – social-demokratia), romelic 1993 wels, damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg, pirveli erTpartiuli administraciaa, 2015 wels misi mmarTvelobis bolo weliwadSi ise Seabijebs, rom Zalauflebaze sruli kontroli eqneba. meore vadiT arCeuli premier-ministri robert fiko koncentracias mkacri monetaruli politikidan zrdaze gadaitans. es mas xmebs ki moupovebs, Tumca evrokavSiris deficitis kanonebis mimarT qveynis erTgulebas riskis winaSe

odesRac yofili sabWoTa kavSiris stabilurobis `naSvilebi~ eri, qveyana daqanca skandalma, korufciam da ekonomikurma SfoTvam. memarcxene-centristuli koaliciuri mTavroba, premier-ministr miro Ceraris TaosnobiT, amdeni wlis ganmavlobaSi mxolod meoTxea da iseTive uniaToa, rogorc misi winamorbedebi. Tumca, akademiuri wridan gamosuli batoni Cerari, romelsac politikosebisTvis kulisebidan rCevebis micemis xangrZlivi istoria aqvs, SesaZloa zustad is arakonfrontaciuli figuraa, romelic qveyanas stabilurobis aRsadgenad sWirdeba. maSin, rodesac politikosebi kinklaoben, ekonomika nela ubrundeba aRmasvlas.

espaneTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

1.4% 28,560 $ (mup 33,770 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

0.5% -4.5 47.2 milioni

mas Semdeg, rac ekonomikam yvelaze krizisuli faza gadalaxa, da indikatorebis umravlesoba swori mimarTulebiT svlas aCvenebs, `saxalxo partiis mTavroba~ 2015 wlis dasasrulisken arCevnebamde uproblemod miva. opoziciur `espanur socialistur mSromelTa partiaSi~ daZabulobisa da momcro partiebs Soris daqsaqsulobis gaTvaliswinebiT, premier-ministrma mariano raxoim SesaZloa meore vadac moigos. separatistebi kataloniasa da baskeTis regionSi TavianT moTxovnebs gaaaqtiureben, magram 2015 wels separatizmi gamoricxulia. sajaro da kerZo davalianebebi ekonomikas wlebis ganmavlobaSi Seaferxebs, magram espaneTi evropis `reanimaciuli ganyofilebidan~ „ambolatoriuli klinikis palataSi“ gadainacvlebs. Tvali adevneT: SevZlebT? mxardaWera erTiandeba memarcxene frTis saprotesto partiis Podemos-is irgvliv, romelmac 2014 wlis arCevnebze evropul parlamentSi kargi Sedegi aCvena. sayovelTao arCevnebSi mas koziris roli eqneba.

TurqeTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.0% 11,180 $ (mup 20,580 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

7.4% -2.7 76.6 milioni

Zalaufleba premieris ofisidan, romelsac 12 wlis ganmavlobaSi – 2014 wlis agvistomde rejeb taip erdoRani akontrolebda, gadainacvlebs prezidentis ofisisken, romelic axla baton er-

miuxedavad imisa, rom ukrainis prezidentis petro poroSenkos mTavroba, ukraineli mosaxleobis umravlesobasTan erTad qveynis dasavleT evropul mezoblebTan aliansSi rCeba, ruseTis prezidenti vladimir putini zians miayenebs mis ekonomikas da politikur erTianobas, sanam Tavisi gavlenis sferodan gasvlis uflebas miscems. is amas gaakeTebs nebismieri sazRauris miuxedavad, romelsac ambivalenturi da myife dasavleTi dauwesebs. sanam ruseTi da dasavleTi sanqciebiT vaWroben, ukraina stagnaciaSi iqneba. Tu konfliqti Sewydeba, SesaZlebelia mokrZalebuli ekonomikuri winsvla.

didi britaneTi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

44,330 $ (mup 39,460 $)

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

indoeTi

pakistani

iaponia

taivani

malaizia

filipinebi

Sri-slanka

samx. korea

singapuri

hong-kongi

ax. zelandia

indonezia

2.6%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s 5%) mosaxleoba

-1.4 23.8 milioni

premier-ministri toni aboti da 2 misi liberal-nacionalisturi 1 koaliciuri mTavroba winamorbe0 di leiboristuli partiis mier -1 Camoyalibebuli politikis demontaJze fokusirdeba, maT So-2 ris naxSirbadis emisiaze dawese-3 bul arapopularul-4gadasaxadze da sxva garemosdacviT kanonebze. -5 politikuri ukusvla, mTavro-6 bis susti pozicia senatSi da partiuli ganwyoba avstraliis politikaSi 2015-s gaurkvevlobis wlad aqcevs. Sesustebuli, Tumca mainc aqtiuri samTamadno seqtori xels Seuwyobs ekonomikur zrdas da warmoebaSi investirebas gadauswrebs. 250

2.5%

inflacia

2.0% -3.9 64.4 milioni

bangladeSi mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

6.3%

1,090$ (mup 2130 $)

150

7.3%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-5.2

inflacia mosaxleoba

ekonomikis sruli svliT gajansaReba konservatiuli partiis mcdelobas maisis sayovelTao arCevnebSi erTpartiuli mandatis mosapoveblad safuZvels gaumyarebs. koaliciuri mTavrobis gamocdileba ufro patara – liberal-demokratiul partiasTan erTobaSi arcerTi maTganisTvis ar iyo sasiamovno. liberal-demokratebis koalicia opoziciur leiboristul partiasTan ideologiurad ufro harmoniuli iqneba, magram mxolod im SemTxvevaSi moxdeba, Tu leiboristebi umravlesobas aiReben, rac naklebad savaraudoa. Sinameurneobebis vali maRalia, xolo biujeti – susti, magram 2015 wels inglisis banki saprocento ganakveTs gazrdis, radgan ekonomika fexze dadgomas iwyebs.

200

100 161.0 milioni

50 `avamis ligis~ mTavroba premier-ministr Seix hasina 0 vajedis xelmZRvanelobiT Tavis uzarmazar sakanonmdeblo umravlesobas gamoiyenebs, raTa

CineTi mSp-s zrda

7.0%

mSp erT sulze inflacia

2015

44.8 milioni

2014

mosaxleoba

2.5% 62,560 $ (mup 47,210 $)

2013

mSp erT sulze

2011

mSp-s zrda

-5.0

2012

8.2%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2010

inflacia

navTobis subsidiebi Seamciros da ekonomikuri ganviTarebis miznebis misaRwevad aqtiuroba ganagrZos. mTavroba CineTsa da indoeTs Soris strategiul mdebareobas gamoiyenebs, raTa sargebeli orive mxares naxos, Tumca indoeTis BJP-is mTavrobis mimarT mtroba ormxriv urTierTobas ukan daxevs. mTavrobis ekonomikuri zrdis gegma ver Sesruldeba, Tumca gadacdoma didi ar iqneba.

8,550 $ (mup 14,460 $) 2.9%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-2.8

1.36 miliardi

prezidenti si zinpingi gaagrZelebs Tavdasxmebs araefeqtianobasa da korufciaze, rac CineTis komunisturi partiis legitimurobas uqmnis safrTxes, magram amave dros am mkacr zomebs Tavisi konkurentebis gasaneitraleblad gamoiyenebs. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi daZabuloba SenarCundeba, radgan CineTi `kunTebze iyureba~ da amiT aliansebis destruqciul gadanawilebas axdens wynari okeanis auzSi. eqsportze orientirebuli investiciebidan moxmarebasa da keTildReobaze orientirebul politikaze gadasvlis procesi ufro intensiuri gaxdeba, da eko2014

mTavroba Sedgeba xuTpartiuli koaliciisgan, sadac memarcxene-centristuli partiebi dominantebia, Tumca memarjvene `Sveicariis xalxis partia~ (SVP) xSirad opoziciis rols TamaSobs. koalicia jer kidev umklavdeba im uTanxmoebas, romelic `Sveicariis xalxis partiis~ mier mxardaWerilma referendumma Seqmna, da romelic miznad isaxavda imigraciis SezRudvas evrokavSirTan miRweuli SeTanxmebis sawinaaRmdegod. es imuSavebs, rom viwro gadawyvetilebebis miReba ar moxdes. Tumca, 2016 wlamde meore mosmena ar aris mosalodneli. oqtombris TveSi dagegmili arCevnebi samTavrobo cvlilebebs ar moitans.

avstralia

2013

8.2 milioni

1.2% 2,430 $ (mup 8,620$)

2012

mosaxleoba

0.3

mSp erT sulze

2011

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

mSp-s zrda

2009

0.8%

ukraina

2007

82,050 $ (mup 57,360 $)

inflacia

azia

2008

mSp erT sulze

2.5%

-20

2010

mSp-s zrda

20 0

2009

Sveicaria

80 60 40

avstralia

memarcxene-centristuli koalicia, social-demokratiuli partiis meTaurobiT, 2014 wlis seqtembris arCevnebSi gamarjvebuli aRmoCnda da memarjvene-centristuli aliansi Secvala. axali koalicia winamorbedze udaod susti iqneba, rac garkveulwilad arastabilurobas da gaurkvevlobas gamoiwvevs. mTavroba, axali premier-ministris stefan lofvenis meTaurobiT, romelic social-demokratiuli partiis lideria, fiskalur politikas gaamkacrebs. sxva mxriv, politika fokusirdeba SromiT da sagadasaxado reformebze, romlebic ekonomikuri zrdis gamococxlebas isaxavs miznad. Tvali adevneT: Tavdacvis qeisi. ganiaraRebaze partiebs Soris miRweuli konsensusi, ruseTis ukrainaSi SeWris Semdeg, xelaxali SeiaraRebis sasargeblod Semobrundeba. Tavdacvaze xarjebi gaizrdeba.

2006

9.8 milioni

2005

mosaxleoba

140 120 100

2008

-1.3

tailandi

1.7%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

bangladeSi

inflacia

2005 wlis Semdeg xelfasis cvlileba, % 160

CineTi

57,930 $ (mup 46,380 $)

azia: xelfasi izrdeba

vietnami

mSp erT sulze

2.4%

doRans ukavia – maSinac ki, Tu es konstituciis `gawelvas~ niSnavs. mTavroba Searbilebs fiskalur politikas da formalurad damoukidebel centralur bankze zemoqmedebas ganaxorcielebs, raTa man 2015 wlis Sua periodisTvis dagegmili saparlamento arCevnebis win saprocento ganakveTi Seamciros. baton erdoRanis `samarTlianobisa da ganviTarebis partia~ damajereblad gaimarjvebs da savaraudod ori mesamedis umravlesoba eqneba, rac konstituciis Sesacvlelad sakmarisia. ekonomika gamococxlebas daiwyebs.

2015 wlis pirovneba

SvedeTi mSp-s zrda

msoflio ricxvebSi qveynebi

msoflio 2015

`saxeldaxelod gadarCeuli aRmasruleblebis mxardaWeris wyalobiT, CineTis prezidentma si Zinpingma Zalauflebis iseT kontrols miaRwia, rogoric qveyanas Tavmjdomare maos Semdeg ar unaxavs. CineTis komunisturi partiis staJiani mediatori vansiSani baton sis yvelaze gamoCenili leitenantia, romelic seriozul antikorufciul mimarTulebas xelmZRvanelobs. kanonis uzenaesobis baton siseul versiaSi `uzenaesoba~ centraluri xelisuflebis prerogativaa, xolo `kanoni~ – misi kodifikacia. antikorufciuli kampania, rogorc kanondamrRvevi moxeleebisa da partiis maRalCinosnebis Svilebis mimarT saxalxo ukmayofilebis aRmofxvris saSualeba, `joxia~ da mas `moxvdeba~, romelic baton sis xazs gadauxvevs. batoni vani, romelic TviTon aseTi `Svilia~, magram Tavad uSviloa, am `joxs~ sindisis qenjnis gareSe aRmarTavs.

60 40 20

0 qveynebi msoflio ricxvebSi

msoflio 2015

-20

nomika komfortulad gaizrdeba, Tumca zrda 2014 wlis maCvenebelze dabali iqneba. Tvali adevneT: kidev xuTi weli. CineTi Tavis mecamete xuTwlian gegmas (2016-2021 ww.) iwyebs, romelic reformebis gaRrmavebiT qveynis struqturuli stagnaciis daZlevas isaxavs miznad.

da dasavleTSi savaWro partniorebis krizisidan gamosvlam ekonomikas win unda ubiZgos. Tvali adevneT: warsuli wyena. aSS ar SeimCnevs baton modis induistur-nacionalistur warsuls, raTa urTierTobis aRdgenaze fokusirdes, rac misi aziuri strategiis mTavari elementia.

ori miznis miRwevas Seecdeba – ekonomikis zrda da SeiaraRebuli ZalebisTvis ufro aqtiuri saerTaSoriso rolis miniWeba. amaTgan pirveli, `abenomikis~ iaponia: samTavrobo stimulireba

mSp-s zrda

6.5%

-1 -2

2014

2015

2013

1,980 $ (mup 6,220 $)

-3 -4

mSp erT sulze

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

150 100 50

2014

iaponia 1.8% 39,140 $ (mup 39,060 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

2014

2015 2014

5.8% 13,700 $ (mup 16,010 $)

inflacia

200

mSp erT sulze

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

zrdis dRis wesrigis warmatebas efuZneba, aseve korporaciuli gadasaxadis ganakveTis Semcirebas da reformebs Sromis bazarze, soflis meurneobasa da jandacvis sferoSi. meores mizans, 250 romelsac pacifisturi konstituciis mxardamWerebi ewinaaR200 mdegebian, bevri kargi TvaliT 150 uyurebs, maT Soris – vaSingtonSi, sadac ufro `kunTmagar~ mxardam100 romelmac SesaZloa wynari Wers, okeanis usafrTxoebis dacvis 50 simZime gaiziaros, sixaruliT Sexvdebian. zrda da usafrTxoeba 0 1-2%-iani komfortuli zonebis farglebSi `ilivlivebs~. Tvali adevneT: „problemebis zRva“. aRmosavleT CineTis zRvis kunZulebis gamo, iaponiis CineTTan teritoriul davaSi arsebuli Cixi centraluri sakiTxi iqneba globaluri Zalauflebis nervuli gadanawilebisTvis. iqneba `naperwklebi~, magram ara `cecxli~.

mSp-s zrda

250

mSp-s zrda

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

2007

2008

2006

2005

-5 -6

yazaxeTi

sawvavis sabiujeto subsidireba, trln rupia

2013

SiSebi, rom narendra modis Bharatiya Janata Party seqtantur mikerZoebas gamoiCenda, ar gamarTlda, magram arc is imedebi gamarTlebula, rom sabazro reforma gatardeboda. mTavroba ZviradRirebuli subsidiebis programis ganxorcielebisas `gaiWeda~. magaliTad, zrdis mxriv mudmivi CamorCena aqvs. aseve, mTavrobam uari ganacxada vaWrobis msoflio organizaciasTan vaWrobis xelSewyobis SeTanxmebis ratificirebaze, riTac vaWrobis gazrdis SesaZlebloba dakarga. investorebi nabijebs frTxilad gadadgamen, radgan isini jer imis danaxvas elian, indoeTis ekonomikur zrdas meti prioriteti miecema Tu mTavrobis mier Zalauflebis SenarCunebas. eWvebi gverdze rom gadavdoT, sazogadoebrivi proeqtebis swrafma damtkicebam

indonezia: stimulireba

2012

-4.9

1.27 miliardi

2011

7.7%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2010

inflacia mosaxleoba

-2.3 255.8 milioni

garkveulwilad auTsaiderma axalgamomcxvarma prezidentma joko vidodom Tavisi popularuloba politikur gavlenad unda aqcios, Tu surs dapirebuli reformebi warmatebiT ganaxorcielos. misi prioritetebi iqneba saxelmwifo aparatis mowesrigeba, korufciisTvis `xelebis gadagrexa~, da ZiriTadi infrastruqturisa da sazogadoebrivi servisebis ganaxleba. ucxouri investiciebisTvis xelis Sewyobis dapireba, rogorc Cans Sesustdeba politikuri kapitalisa da adgilobriv biznesze kontrolis 5 SesanarCuneblad. Rrmad fes4 vgadgmuli interesebi, daqsaqsu3 li da metwilad tlanqi kanon2 mdebloba da misi gamoucdeloba 1 misias kidev ufro gaarTulebs. 0 reformis perspeqtiva ekonomikas -1 win wawevaSi daexmareba, riTac amarTlebs qveynis proto – BRIC -2 qveynis statuss. -3 Tvali adevneT: sawvavis fasis -4 zeda zRvari. mTavroba axal -5 Setevas ganaxorcielebs sawvavis -6 subsidirebis politikis winaaRmdeg, raTa biujeti moawesrigos da sazogadoebrivi samuSaoebi daafinansos.

2009

mSp erT sulze

mosaxleoba

2005

indoeTi

5.6%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2011

80 60

teritoriis saqmeebSi konti40 nenturi CineTis uzarmazari 20 rolis gamo Seqmnili daZabuloba 0 mwvavdeba, gansakuTrebiT – hong-20 kongis mosaxleobis uflebebis gamo, rac mocemulia `mTavar kanonSi~ da sakuTari mTavrobis arCevis uflebas ukavSirdeba. pekinis xedva gaimarjvebs, magram quCaSi daZabulobis, da mTavari aRmasrulebeli piris – leung Cun-iangis arakomfortuli mmarTvelobis xarjze. xelisufleba mzeras sabinao bazarze warmoqmnil `buStukebze~ miapyrobs gansakuTrebiT mas Semdeg, rac saprocento ganakveTebi zrdas daiwyebs. gajansaReba dasavleTSi da kontinentTan ufro intensiuri vaWroba ekonomikur zrdas daexmareba. Tvali adevneT: sasazRvro bazari. kontinentis mkvidrTaTvis pekinis mier dawesebuli gamartivebuli sacxovrebeli wesebi teritoriaze daZabulobas gaaRvivebs, da SesaZloa Sida turizms avnos.

inflacia

2012

0.2

7.1 milioni

3,870 $ (mup 10,780 $)

2010

mosaxleoba

3.3%

2009

120 biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) 100

2007

inflacia

mSp erT sulze

2008

41, 990140 $ (mup 58,320 $)

3 5.9%

mSp-s zrda

2008

mSp erT sulze

2.6%

2006

160

mSp-s zrda

1.8 % -6.6 126.8 milioni

Sinzo abes mTavroba, romelic Zalauflebas sul mcire 2016 wlis arCevnebamde SeinarCunebs,

mSp erT sulze

5.4% 12,090 $ (mup 26,310 $)

inflacia

3.4 %

mosaxleoba

-3.5 30.7 milioni

mSp, samomxmareblo fasebis %-li cvlileba

indonezia

mSp-s zrda

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

hong-kongi

malaizia

6.2 % -1.2 17.6 milioni

prezidenti nursulTan nazarbaevi 2015 wels prezidentobis vadis bolo weliwadSi Seabijebs, Tumca misi vada, – 24 weliwadi da kidev vin daTvlis – ubralo arCevnebiT ver Seikveceba, da mis kontrols Zalauflebaze, romelsac qveynis navTobis simdidre amyarebs, savaraudod asakis matebis bunebrivi Sedegis garda, veraferi Seasustdebs (ivlisSi is 75 wlis xdeba). ekonomikuri stimuli, romelic nawilobriv privatizaciis programam da eqsportis Semosavlebma asazrdoa, da kaSaganis navTobsabados produqciam gaaZliera, im `pirqars~ gaaneitralebs, romelic sanqciebisgan dazaralebuli ruseTidan qris.

budistur-nacionalisturi koaliciuri mTavroba (BN) opoziciuri pakatan rakiatis brakonieruli kampaniis Sedegad, problemebs waawydeba. BN-is Semcirebuli sakanonmdeblo umravlesoba da daZabuloba reformebis momxreebsa da konservatorebs Soris `gaerTianebuli malaiziis erovnuli organizaciis~ SigniT, romelic koaliciis mTavari partnioria, politikas Zirs uTxris. administracia reformebs intensiurad gaagrZelebs, raTa malaizia 2020 wlisTvis maRalSemosavlian qveynad aqcios. Semdegi faza – `malaiziis me-11 gegma~ 2015 wlis ivnisisTvis gamoqveyndeba. Tvali adevneT: Cais wveuleba. saqonlisa da servisis gadasaxadis SemoRebam, romelic 2015 wlisTvis igegmeba, sajaro Sekrebebze dawesebuli mkacri SezRudvebis miuxedavad, SesaZloa Setakebebi gamoiwvios.

axali zelandia mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

2.8% 41,280 $ (mup 37,820 $)

inflacia

2.0 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

0.3 4.4 milioni

premier-ministrma jon qeim, romelic memarjvene-centristuli partiidanaa, 2014 wlis seqtembris arCevnebSi mesame vadiT damajereblad gaimarjva. axali mTavrobis miznebSi aqraisTCerCis mimdinare rekonstruqcia, fasiani dekretuli Svebulebis vadis gaxangrZliveba da Zalisxmevis ganaxlebaa, raTa saxelmwifo daxmarebebis beneficiarebis samsaxurebSi dabruneba moxerxdes. infrastruqturaze fokusireba da navTobze koncesiebis SeTavazeba investorebs asiamovnebs. es krizisis Semdeg investiciebis dacemis Sedegis ganeitralebas Seuwyobs xels. Tvali adevneT: ozeilendi. mTavroba avstraliasTan erTiani ekonomikuri bazris Seqmnis mizniT TanamSromlobas gaaRrmavebs.

pakistani mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.2% 1,470 $ (mup 5,060 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

8.2% -6.0 189.1 milioni

premier-ministri navaz Sarifi didi politikuri protestisa da armiis – misi mTavrobis usafrTxoebis mTavari dasayrdenis Zalauflebis zrdis Sedegad

singapuri 3.8% 58,910 $ (mup 83,340 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

2.2 % 1.1 5.7 milioni

saTaveSi 60%-iani xmebiT mosuli, magram TiTqmis yvela adgilis mflobel `xalxis moqmedebis partias~, romelic didi xania

7.1 % 3,790 $ (mup 11,010 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

4.8%

6,260 $ (mup 11,060 $)

inflacia

4.0 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.7 67.4 milioni

0 xelisuflebaSi myofma `mSvido0 da wesrigis erovnulma sabbisa Wom~, romelic saTaveSi 2014 wlis -2 gadatrialebis Sedegad movida, -2 politikuri arastabilurobis -4 mwvave problema gadaWra, Tumca ver -4 aRmofxvra misi ZiriTadi mizezi – Rrma naprali soflad -6 siRaribesa da urbanul istebliS-6 ments Soris. ise rom, konfrontacia gagrZeldeba. xunta amas -8 politikuri platformis SeqmniT -8 upasuxebs, raTa popularuli -10 taqsin Sinavatras an misi marionetebis ZalauflebaSi dabruneba -10 gamoricxos. amasobaSi, mTavroba Seecdeba susti ekonomika sazoga-

-5.7 21.6 milioni

arCevnebi 2016 wels modis, Tumca komfortuli sakanonmdeblo umravlesoba da maRali reitingi sazogadoebaSi niSnavs, rom `gaerTianebuli saxalxo Tavisuflebis aliansis~ mTavroba riggareSe arCevnebis Sanss minimumze SeinarCunebs. misi midrekileba ekonomikis mikromenejmentisa da politikis cvalebadobis mimarT bizness aferxebs. amis miuxedavad, 2009 wlis samoqalaqo omis dasasrulma, roca `Tamilis vefxvebi~ damarcxdnen, mTavroba popularuli gaxada, rac ekonomikuri dividendebis momtani iqneba, daaxloebiT 7%-iani zrdis TanxlebiT.

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

6.4% 2,110 $ (mup 5,900 $)

inflacia

11.0%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.6 31.1 milioni

qveynis amJamindeli prezidenti islam karimovi damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg rigiT meoTxe saprezidento vadas 2015 wlis bolos daasrulebs, Tumca momdevno arCevnebSi igi kidev erTi vadiT gaxdeba prezidenti. cvlilebebi savaraudod axlosaa, imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom `patriarqis~ kontrolis SesustebasTan erTad, kulisebSi metoqeebs Soris „sapnis operis“ msgavsi konfrontacia mimdinareobs. magram qveyanaSi, sadac jer kidev ar unaxavT Tavisufali arCevnebi, gamarjvebuli xalxis rCeuli ar iqneba. nedleulis eqsportidan miRebuli Semosavlebi da adgilobriv proeqtebSi Cadebuli saxelmwifo investiciebi ekonomikis mamoZravebeli Zala gaxdeba.

4.5%

mSp erT sulze

20152015

mSp erT sulze

mSp-s zrda

20142014

Sri-lanka mSp-s zrda

tailandi

tailandi: investirebuli

pirdapiri investiciebis Semodineba, $ mlrd 15 15 12 12 9 9 6 6 20172017

prezidenti benino akino, romlisTvisac saprezidento vadis bolo weliwadi iwyeba, mwvave politikur opozicias waawydeba da 2013 wlis bolos taifunis mier dazaralebul regionebSi yovlismomcveli reabilitaciis ganxorcielebis gegma ar eqneba. kanonmdeblebma samjer scades mis winaaRmdeg impiCmentis sakiTxis dayeneba, magram seqtemberSi kongresis komitetma isini daiTxova. urbanizacia, mzardi samomxmareblo xarjva da autsorsingis seqtoris bumi, ekonomikur zrdas daexmareba.

mSp erT sulze

qveynis pirveli qali lideri park guen hei misi winamorbedis probiznesur kurss gaagrZelebs, Tumca mis fokusSi socialuri Tanasworoba iqneba – im doneze, ramdenadac mkacri biujeti amis saSualebas miscems. man gadalaxa is didi protesti, romelic 2014 wels boranis katastrofas moyva da momdevno arCevnebSi mmarTvelma `saenuris partiam~ sakanonmdeblo umravlesobis konsolidacia moaxdina. mTavroba ZalauflebaSi yofnas gamoiyenebs, raTa ekonomikas eqsportze orientirebuli zrdis modelidan gadaaxvevinos da inovaciebsa da Sida bazarze orientirebuli modelisken ubiZgos.

-1.4

101.8 milioni

mSp-s zrda

0.8 50.8 milioni

20132013

mosaxleoba

20162016

4,1%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2.3 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

20142014

inflacia

`gomindanis partia,~ romelsac prezidenti ma in-Ju meTaurobs, 2015 welSi saxalxo protestebSi gaxveuli Seabijebs – ZiriTadad, Tavisi sruteebsSorisi da birTvuli energiis politikis gamo. igi 2016 wlis arCevnebamde `koWlobiT~ miva, radganac mtruli kanonmdebloba eRobeba da aseve ar Seswevs sasurveli politikis gatarebis unari, rogoricaa kontinentur CineTTan savaWro integracia da ufro mWidro kavSiris damyareba. aseTive uunaro iqneba ekonomikac, radganac regionuli metoqeebi taivanis eleqtronul bazars `gamoWamen~, xolo kontinenti savaWro SeTanxmebebs dablokavs.

20152015

6.3% 3,260 $ (mup 7,410 $)

3.7% 30, 110 $ (mup 36,520 $)

23.5 milioni

20112011

mSp erT sulze

mosaxleoba

-1.3

20122012

mSp-s zrda

2.0 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

20132013

filipinebi

samxreT korea

inflacia

20102010

2017

2016

2014

2015

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

dasustda. armiis mier „kulisebSi“ gaCaRebuli mediatoroba protestis mSvidobian mogvarebamde miiyvans saqmes, magram batoni Sarifi gaTiSulobaze 15 orientirebuli politikisa da sabiujeto reformebis ganxorcielebis saSualebebs ver 12 gamoiyenebs. usafrTxoeba separatistul samxreT-dasavleTSi da jihadistur Crdilo-aRmosav9 leTSi mowyvladi rCeba. sagareo politika islamistur teroristul jgufebTan dasavleTis 6 konfrontaciis dros pakistanis strategiuli rolis garSemo itrialebs. mTavroba imuSavebs, raTa investorebi regulaciebis reformebiTa da privatizaciis saSualebiT moxiblos.

22,700 $ (mup 44,020 $)

20122012

2015

2014

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

2008

-8

mSp erT sulze

20092009

-6

3.3%

20112011

-4

uzbekeTi

mSp-s zrda

20102010

-2

taivani

20082008

marTavs qveyanas, demokratiuli deficiti aqvs gadasalaxi. socialur sikeTeebze xelgaSlili xarjva pozitiur rols Seasrulebs, Tumca socialuri daZabuloba gaizrdeba da periodulad quCebSi gadainacvlebs. cvlileba unda moxdes, magram jer ara. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom singapuri msoflio vaWrobis gzajvaredinze mdebareobs, ekonomika gaizrdeba, radgan globalurad moTxovna matulobs. Tvali adevneT: dajavSne oTaxi. ivnisSi, samxreT-aRmosavleT aziur TamaSebSi monawile 7000 sportsmeni sastumroebSi darCeba da ara tradiciul olimpiur sofelSi.

20092009

sabiujeto balansi, mSp-is % mimdinare angariSis balansi, mSp-is %

20082008

pakistani: disbalansi

-10

msoflio ricxvebSi qveynebi

msoflio 2015

doebriv samuSaoebze xelgaSlilobiT da samomxmareblo xarjvis gaaqtiurebiT aaRorZinos.

vietnami mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

6.6% 2,230 $ (mup 6,090 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

6.1 % -3.9 91.4 milioni

reformistebi da konservatorebi komunisturi partiis mTavrobaSi liderobisTvis ibrZvian, magram erTpartiul mmarTvelobas garedan mcire safrTxe elis. marTalia antisamTavrobo ganwyobebi izrdeba, magram kargad nacadi represiuli teqnologiebi sakmarisze meti iqneba gansxvavebuli azris CasaxSobad. gazrdili samomxmareblo xarjvisa da biznesinvesticiebis wyalobiT, ekonomikaSi zogierTi problema mogvardeba. Tvali adevneT: wadiT dasavleTisken. regionSi CineTis mzardi agresiuli pozicia vietnamsa da aSS-s Soris kavSirebis gaRrmavebas Seuwyobs xels – omis memkvidreobis miuxedavad.

laTinuri amerika: krizisis mogerieba

CrdiloeT amerika: industriuli renesansi industriuli warmoeba (2005=100)

meqsika

140

aSS

2000

kanada

2015

350

2000

2015

250

250 120

200

150

110

150

100

100 100

CrdiloeT amerika

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

2.3% 54,150 $ (mup 45,830 $)

inflacia

2.3%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.9 36.0 milioni

premier-ministri stiven harperi da misi mmarTveli konservatiuli partia parlamentis umravlesobas warmoadgens da danawevrebul opozicias sakmaod jobnis. Tumca, mTavrobis Zliereba skandalebma Searyia. liberaluri partia, romelic konservatorebisa da axali demokratiuli partiis Semdeg mesame adgilasaa, 2015 wlis oqtomberSi dagegmili federaluri arCevnebis win renesansis etapzea. sajaro politikis prioritetebs Sorisaa provinciaTaSorisi savaWro barierebis moxsna (rac, mTavrobis SefasebiT, 47 miliardi dolaris odenobis aqtivobebs aferxebs), aseve, msoflioSi sididiT mesame navTobis sabados – albertas qviSebTan navTobis transportirebis gzebis gaumjobeseba. kanadis ekonomika aSS-is ekonomikis aRorZinebas kvaldakval gahyveba.

meqsika mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.0% 12,080 $ (mup 19,430 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

3.3 % -3.1 118.8 milioni

prezidentma enrike penia nietom mmarTvelobis pirvel wels fundamenturi reformebis seria wamoiwyo energetikis, telekomunikaciebis, ganaTlebisa da sabanko sferoSi, da sakuTari saprezidento vadis darCenil nawils maT ganxorcielebas moaxmars. garda amisa, yoveldRiuri saqmianobiT Seecdeba ekonomikis zrdis xelSewyobas, samuSao adgilebis Seqmnasa da narkotikebis kontrabandis winaaRmdeg brZolas. opozicia mas mtkiced SeewinaaRmdegeba, gansakuTrebiT – ivlisSi dagegmili

ekvadori

paragvai

bolivia

urugvai

venesulela

argentina

Cile

laTinuri amerika

Sualeduri arCevnebis win, da gamocdas mouwyobs mmarTveli partiis – `revolucionario institucionalis~ erTianobas. upirvelesi aqcenti bolodroindeli depresiisgan ekonomikis gaTavisuflebas daeTmoba, risi xelSewyobac konkurentuli eqsportis seqtors SeuZlia. Tvali adevneT: granpri – 23 wlis ganmavlobaSi pirvelad, noemberSi, mexikoSi isev gaimarTeba avtorbola `formula 1~

aSS mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

3.2% 57,160 $ (mup 57,160 $)

inflacia

2.3 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-2.5

321.3 milioni

baraq obama Tavisi drois umetesobas ucxoel teroristebsa da omis mdgomareobaSi myof rusebze nerviulobas dauTmobs, da naklebad ekonomikas, romelic TavisTavadac warmatebuli iqneba. ekonomikis aRorZineba saboloo stabilurobas miaRwevs da samuSao adgilebis zrda kidev ufro maRal zRvars miuaxlovdeba. xelfasebi gaizrdeba da momxmareblebi maRaziebSi naRd fuls daxarjaven. Tumca, okeanis miRma ekonomikebis sisuste eqsportis zrdas Seaferxebs. aSS-is saarCevno kampaniebi usazRvrod grZeli iqneba da 2016 wlis kongresisa da prezidentis arCevnebisTvis 2015 wlis dasawyisSive daiwyeba, roca hilari qlinToni – yofili saxelmwifo mdivani da pirveli ledi, sakuTar kandidaturas daasaxelebs. Tvali adevneT: sesxis xarjebi. aSS-is centraluri federaluri banki 2015 wels procentebs oficialurad gazrdis. rodis da ramdeniT – finansuri bazrebisa da rigiTi saxlis mflobelebis did interess warmoadgens.

argentina mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

1.9% 10,980 $ (mup 21,260 $)

inflacia

26.5%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.9 43.1 milioni

kristina fernandes de kirxneris peronistuli mTavroba inflaciis, sagadasaxado balansis krizisisa da saxalxo ajanyebis riskis winaSea, sanam oqtombris arCevnebamde miaRwevs. amis Tavidan asacileblad saWiro zomebi mosaxleobisTvis mtkivneuli iqneba da mTavrobis sakuTari ideologebisTvisac `anaTemis~ tolfasi. momdevno prezidentad didi albaTobiT isev peronists vixilavT, Tumca ar eqneba arCevani garda imisa, rom ekonomikis stabilurobas miaRwios da imuSaos saerTaSoriso kapitalis bazrebze SesaRwevad, rac 2001 wlis defoltis Semdeg maTTvis daixura.

bolivia mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.0% 3,450 $ (mup 6,740 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

7.1% 0.1 11.1 milioni

2014 wlis arCevnebSi evo moralesma zedized mesame saprezidento vada moipova, raSic

mas prezidentis movaleobis Semsrulebeli, partiis efeqtiani manqana da gazis sabados ekonomikuri sargebeli daexmara. Tumca, marginalebis politikur sferoSi CarTvis gegmebi Zalian nela xorcieldeba. zogierT jgufs Soris mRelvareba moimatebs. gazidan miRebuli Semosavali, momxmarebelTa mzardi moTxovnebi da mSeneblobis bumi ekonomikis zrdis sasurvel maCvenebels uzrunvelyofs.

brazilia mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

1.8% 11,410 $ (mup 12,650 $)

inflacia

6.3%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-3.9

204.5 milioni

prezidenti dilma rusefi zedized meore saprezidento vadas iwyebs, rac meoTxea misi muSaTa partiisTvis. 2014 wlis oqtomberSi man mcirediT mougo konkurents. axalma prezidentma politika misi winamorbedis – luis inasio `lula~ de silvas ekonomikuri pragmatulobisgan Sors waiyvana. Carevam, mikromenejmentma da saxelmwifos mier marTuli ekonomikis reformirebis sustma progresma sazRvargareTis ndoba Searyia da zrdisa da gafarToebis aTwliani periodis Semdeg ekonomika daRmavlobis gzaze daayena. prezidentis

rodrigo londono erCeveri (aseve cnobili, rogorc `timoCenko~) bolo 50 wlis ganmavlobaSi partizanuli dajgufebis – `kolumbiis revoluciur- SeiaraRebuli Zalebis~ (the FARC ) mxolod mesame lideria, magram igi ukanasknelic aRmoCndeba, Tuki mTavrobasTan samSvidobo molaparakebebi warmatebiT dasruldeba. miuxedavad imisa, rom igi axali daniSnulia (mas Semdeg, rac misi winamorbedi kolumbiis Zalebma mokles), Zalian gamocdili partizania da miiCneva, rom jgufis zogierTi yvelaze sisxliani operaciebis ukan swored is idga. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, mas aqvs samxedro `prestiJi~, rac ajanyebulebis molaparakebebze dasayoliebladaa saWiro. mSvidoba, romelic molaparakebebis sirTulis gaTvaliswinebiT jer kidev saTuoa, did ekonomikur dividendebs moitanda.

2015 wlis pirovneba

kanada

kolombia

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

peru

brazilia

90 80

saerTaSoriso rezervebi, $ mlrd

350 300

130 300

2018

msoflio 2015

qveynebi msoflio ricxvebSi

4,500 4,000

msoflio ricxvebSi qveynebi

msoflio 20153,500 3,000 2,500 2,000

pirveli amocana skeptikosi 1,500 investorebis ndobis1,000 mopoveba da qveynis sirTuleebisTvis 500 momzadeba iqneba. 0 Tvali adevneT: monacemebi. rio de Janeiro ivlisSi msoflio statistikis mesamoce kongress umaspinZlebs.

yvelaze mwvave winaaRmdegoba prezidents partiis Signidan moelis. amitomac misi gegma, rom araefeqtiani sajaro seqtori `SeajanjRaros~ da saxelmwifo sawarmoebi kerZo monawileobisTvis Ria gaxados, Zalian neli nabijiT waiwevs..

kuba: reforma Zlierdeba mSp, %-li zrda 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

Cile

mSp erT sulze

3.9% 6,360 $ (mup 12,580 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

4.4% -3.3 11.2 milioni

Zmebi kastroebis Semdgomi neli cvlileba da axali Taobis liderebi ar iZlevian imeds, rom bolo wlebis gaurkveveli kursi male dasruldeba. mis ZiriTad

2015

2014

2013

2011

2012

2015

2014

2013

2007 wels arCeulma rafael ko150 ream 2014 wels rekordi daamyara, rogorc yvelaze grZelvadianma 100 prezidentma. mas surs konstituciidan 50 prezidentis vadebis SezRudvebis amoReba, rom 2017 wels isev miiRos monawileoba arCev0 nebSi. misma saprezidento vadam uCveulo stabiluroba Semoitana qveynis politikaSi, ramac, naxSirwyalbadis sabadosTan erTad, ekonomikuri gafarToebis mdgradobas Seuwyo xeli. Zalian cota rames Tu SeuZlia rafael koreas da misi `alianca pais~ mTavrobis Zalauflebis Seryeva. amasTan, Tu navTobis fasi Zalian ar daecema, qveynis ekonomika stabilurad gaagrZelebs ganviTarebas.

paragvai mSp erT sulze

mSp-s zrda

olanta humalas prezidentobas vadis dasasrulisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli susti mdgomareoba aReniSneba. igi prezidentobis bolo wels danawevrebuli koaliciiT, mtrulad ganwyobili kongresiTa da popularobis SemcirebiT Sexvdeba. frTxili fiskaluri menejmenti winasaarCevnod saxelmwifo daxmarebebis gacemis saSualebas Seqmnis. investiciebisTvis administraciuli barierebisa da bizneszednadebi xarjebis Semcirebis gamo, ekonomika fexze dadgeba. Tumca, bolo wlebis swrafi zrda saxeze aRar iqneba.

urugvai mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.1% 4,950 $ (mup7,550 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

4.6 % -0.7 7.0 milioni

prezidenti orasio kartesi mtrulad ganwyobili sakanonmdeblo organos winaSea. gareSe piri da modernizatori qveyanaSi didi xnis win dafuZnebul `partido kolorados~ partias warmoadgens, romelsac didi tradiciebi da interesebi aqvs.

3.3% 16,540 $ (mup 21,620 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

mSp-s zrda

kuba

-4.7 15.5 milioni

200

2011

xuan manuel santosis prezidentobis meore vada, romelic 2014 wels daiwyo, Zalian emsgavseba pirvels: ambiciuri reformebis programa, romelsac aferxebs daZabuloba missave koaliciaSi da memarjvene opoziciis winaaRmdegoba, rasac kolumbiis revoluciuri SeiaraRebuli Zalebis partizanebTan gaWianurebuli molaparakebebi emateba. am iniciativas 2015 wels ganxorcielebis perspeqtiva aqvs, romelsac mSvidobis dividendi mohyveba da SesaZlebelia nobelis prizic mSvidobis dargSi xuan manuel santosisTvis. ekonomika ki zrdas ganagrZobs.

mosaxleoba

2012

-0.7 50.1 milioni

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

2010

mosaxleoba

4.1 %

250

3.4%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

7,070 $ (mup 12,610 $)

inflacia

8,620 $ (mup 12,010 $)

inflacia

4.9 %

2009

mSp erT sulze

-0.2 31.2 milioni

ekvadori mSp erT sulze

4.4%

2015

2014

2013

2012

3.5

2008

mSp-s zrda

mosaxleoba

mokavSire qveyanaSi – venesuelaSi 3.0 arastabilurobis Sansi kidev ufro aZlierebs risks. fundamen2.5 300liberalizaciis reformebi turi 2.0 ukve `gzaSia~ – magaliTad, 1.5250 savaraudod, 2015 wlis qveyana, dasawyisSi fasebis kontrolsa 1.0 200 da diferencirebul savaluto 0.5 kurss Sewyvets. Tumca, raul 0.0150 kastro, romelsac ivnisSi 84 weli usruldeba, Seecdeba 2018 100 wlisTvis dagegmili Zalauflebis `msubuqi gadacemisTvis~ 50 Semzadebas.

mSp-s 300zrda

kolumbia

2.7%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

4.0

2009

2014 wels miSel baSelem meore saprezidento vadis moxda daiwyo da reformebis, maT Soris ganaTlebis, saarCevno da sagadasaxado reformebis didi talRa wamoiwyo. igi win aRudgeba centraluri-memarcxene nueva maioria koaliciis zemoqmedebas da SesaZloa centralurimemarjvene opoziciis mxardaWera dasWirdes. didi moTxovna qveynis mTavar saeqsporto produqtze – spilenZze, ekonomikur zrdas moawesrigebs. Tvali adevneT: win, CineTo! ivnisivlisSi Cile safexburTo Cempionat `kopa amerikas~ umaspinZlebs, sadac qveyanasTan mzardi kontaqtebis niSnad, pirvelad CineTic miiRebs monawileobas.

2011

17.9 milioni

4.9% 7,310 $ (mup 12,330 $)

inflacia

2008

mosaxleoba

0.0

-1.1

2010

3.4%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

mSp erT sulze

2010

inflacia

mSp-s zrda

0.5

2009

14,380 $ (mup 24,3100 $)

1.0

2009

3.6%

2010

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

peru

1.5

7.2% -2.9 3.4 milioni

centraluri-memarcxene frente amplios koaliciuri mTavroba mmarTvelobis axal vadas martSi daiwyebs. Tumca, mas saTaveSi axali prezidenti Caudgeba, romelic 2014 wlis bolos gamarTuli arCevnebis Sedegad gamovlinda. am pozicias didi albaTobiT tabare vaskesi daikavebs, romelic koalicias xelmZRvanelobda da 2005-dan 2010 wlamde qveynis saTaveSi idga. Tumca, mas, savaraudod, ar eqneba kongresis umravlesoba – amJamindeli prezidentis xoze muxikasgan gansxvavebiT. koaliciis memarcxene frTa mxars dauWers gadanawilebisken mimarTul reformebs, magram mTavroba iseT politikas gaatarebs, romelic bizneskompaniebisTvis iqneba xelsayreli da ucxour investiciebs moizidavs. Tvali adevneT: didi imedebi. 2015 wels daiwyeba kanafis moyvanisa da moxmarebis legalizacia, ramac xeli unda SeuSalos narkotikebTan dakavSirebuli danaSaulis zrdas.

venesuela mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

-0.5% 23,570 $ (mup 13,320 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

53.2% -10.1 30.9 milioni

qveyanaSi saprotesto aqciebis talRa mZvinvarebs, ekonomika dasustebulia, aramdgradia valuta da Semcirebulia saerTaSoriso rezervebi, magram nikolas maduros mTavrobas ukmayofilebasTan gamklaveba SeuZlia, radganac opoziciam jer kidev ver miagno formulas, romelic prezidents 2018 wels vadis amowurvamde gamocvlida. sursaTisa da sxva resursebis deficiti kidev ufro damZimdeba mTavrobis mier sagareo valutis Semodinebis marTvis sirTuleebTan erTad da ekonomika recesias ganicdis. navTobis fasebis dacema administraciis problemebs kidev ufro gaaRrmavebs.

2.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.5

2015 2015

2014 2014

2012 2012

2013 2013

2011 2011

2010 2010

rom disidentTa xmebi CaaxSos. ekonomika swrafad miiwevs win.

ojaxebis mier xarjva, %-li zrda 20000-dan 2013-mde

eTiopia: zrdis niSnebi soflis meurneobis produqcia, mlrd biri, 2011 wlis fasebi 300

kongos demok. resp.

gvinea

malavi

spilos Zvlis sanap. lesoTo jibuti

tanzania

svazilendi gvinea-bisau

senegali kameruni

cent. afrikis resp.

togo namibia

benini

nigeria

burundi kenia

gaboni

zambia

uganda mozambiki

sudani

ruanda

eTiopia mali

botsvana

gana ekvatoruli gvinea

nigeria

siera leone

Cadi

angola

300 250 kongos respublika

4,000 4,500 3,500 4,000 3,000 3,500 2,500 3,000 2,000 2,500 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,500 500 1,0000 500 0

2009 2009

0.0mxolod imis winapiroba iqneba,

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika: afrikeli mxarjvelebi 4,500

msoflio 2015

qveynebi msoflio ricxvebSi

wyaro: afrikis ganviTarebis banki

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika

250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50

6,170 $ (mup 14,370$) 3.6% -1.7 40.0 milioni

5.5%

250$ (mup 8,190 $) 7,400 200

mSp erT sulze inflacia

7.8%

200 biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-3.3

150

mosaxleoba

22.8 milioni

150 100

2010 2010

2009 2009

2008 2008

Joze eduardo duS santuSi 1979 wlidan prezidentia.100 Tumca bolo 50 dros sakuTar gancxadebebSi ramdenjerme mianiSna,50 rom Sesa0 Zloa, male postidan gadadges. 0 magram es 2015 wels ar moxdeba, amisi miniSnebac ki sakmarisia, mis memkvidreobaze `konkursis~ dasawyebad. qveyanaSi ganxeTqilebis didi potencialia, radganac aqamde duS santuSi gulmodgined uSlida xels konkurentebis aRzevebas. navTobis seqtoris mzardi produqtebi ekonomikis mamoZravebeli Zala iqneba.

kameruni mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

5.2 % 1,310 $ (mup 2,980 $)

inflacia

2.5 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-4.5

23.1 milioni

grZelvadiani prezidentobis kidev erTi magaliTia pol

3.3%

inflacia

3,700 $ (mup 11,630 $)

2015 2015

2014 2014

mSp erT sulze

10.2%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-10.5 85.0 milioni

abdel fatah el-sisi CaebRauWeba saprezidento xelisuflebas da kidev ufro Seaviwroebs muslimTa saZmos, romelTa mTavrobis gadayenebasac prezidentad arCevamde Seuwyo xeli. 2014 wlis saparlamento arCevnebma gamokveTili umravlesoba arcerT partias ar moutana. sparseTis yures saxelmwifoTa daxmareba (romlebic madlierni arian muslimTa saZmos Tavidan moSorebiT) da kerZo investiciebis mozidvis mtkice gadawyvetileba ekonomikur zrdas ganapirobebs.

eTiopia mSp-s zrda

mSp erT sulze

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

2015 2015

2014 2014

2.0% 6,070 $ (mup 14,160 $)

inflacia

15.5%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-1.3 79.5 milioni

feTqebadi mahmud ahmadinejadis Semdgomi prezidenti hasan rohani ufro damTmob kurss ayalibebs, Tumca misi warmateba SeumCneveli iqneba. Sida represiebis Sesusteba konservatiuli ukureaqciis risks qmnis, xolo sanqciebis dasasruleblad gamarTuli molaparakebebi SesaZloa kapitulacias hgavdes. reJims birTvul molaparakebebSi periodulad SeCerebuli progresi uwyobs xels. ekonomikuri blokadis Semcireba zrdas gamoiwvevs. Tvali adevneT: uzenaesi xelisuflebis gadacema. revoluciuri iranis uzenaes liders – aiaTola ali xameneis 2014 wels prostatis operacia gaukeTes. 2015 wels mniSvnelovani ganxilvebi daiwyeba misi SesaZlo Semcvlelis Sesaxeb.

7.0% 485 $ (mup 1,520 $)

mSp erT sulze

israeli mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

3.6% 40,620 $ (mup 34,590 $)

inflacia

1.5%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-3.0 8.3 milioni

2014 wels, palestinelebTan konfliqtis Semdeg, premier-ministri biniamin neTaniahu dasustda, magram mainc xelisuflebaSi darCa. saerTaSoriso masStabiT naklebad popularuli misi mtkice poziciis gamo, neTaniahum qveynis SigniTac dakarga `qorisebri~ kolegebis mxardaWera. es iseT Jestebs gamoiwvevs, rogorebicaa axali dasaxlebebi da ukompromiso molaparakebebi `hamasTan~. ekonomikuri zrdis Seneleba dasruldeba – gazis produqtebis mzardi raodenobiTa da zogadi mdgomareobis gaumjobesebis fonze.

iordania

mSp-s zrda

6.8% 8,230 $ (mup 5,980 $)

inflacia

8.7%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-2.8

mosaxleoba

2013 2013

2011 2011

2012 2012

irani

erayi

2015 2015

300 250

mSp-s zrda

2014 2014

300

angola

egvipte

2013 2013

2011 2011

2010 2010

2009 2009

3.0 3.5 butef2015 weli abdel aziz likasTvis xelisuflebaSi yofnis 2.5 3.0 me-16 weli iqneba, Tanac realuri 2.0 2.5 safrTxis gareSe. axalgazrdo1.5 2.0 baSi umuSevrobis maRali done, gerontokratia da 1.0 didi so1.5 cialuri `napralebi~ – `arabuli 0.5 1.0 gazafxulis~ gamosvlebis gamom0.0 0.5 wvevi mizezebi alJirSic momwifebulia, magram `le puvuas~ qveynis 0.0 xelisuflebaSi xangrZlivad myofi elitis „marwuxebi“ aCerebs. naxSirwyalbadze damokidebuli ekonomikis zrda mokrZalebuli iqneba, diversifikacia ki neli tempiT `miRoRavs~.

2012 2012

3.5 4.0

2011 2011

mosaxleoba

2013 2013

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s 4.0%)

2010 2010

3.3%

mSp erT sulze

2012 2012

mSp-s zrda

biia, romelic 30 welze metia xelisuflebaSia da mis Zalauflebas moxucebulobis garda araferi emuqreba. ekonomika kargad viTardeba, mzardi navTobwarmoebisa da ayvavebuli Sida bazris fonze. zrda ufro swrafi iqneboda, Tu investiciebis mosazidi seriozuli reformebi gatardeboda, Tumca, amJamad amisi albaToba ar arsebobs.

2009 2009

alJiri

2008 2008

500

premier-ministrma unda daZlios Siitebis ambicia, sunitebis amboxeba da qurTebis izolacia imisTvis, rom inkluziuri administracia Camoayalibos. mas bevri dro ar aqvs. 2015 wlis bolomde, SesaZloa, yvelaferi mogvardes, Tu qurTebi damoukideblobisTvis gadadgamen nabijebs da sunitebi qveynis CrdilodasavleT nawilze kontrols ganamtkiceben. premier-ministrs erayis dasavleli mxardamWerebi umagreben zurgs. erTxel daSlas gadarCenili erayi isev danawevrebis pirasaa, radganac sunitebi, Siitebi da qurTebi sakuTari miznebisTvis ibrZvian. bevri ramaa damokidebuli premier-ministr haider al-abadis Semrigeblur unarebze. rogorc mZvinvare gadamdebi seni, romelic dasasrul TviTonve Caiwveba, `islamuri saxelmwifoc~ sabolood damarcxdeba, magram sunituri saarCevno olqebi isev mtrulad ganwyobilni darCebian, Tu qveynis marTvaSi ar CaerTvebian.

5.2% 2.0 35.4 milioni

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.3% 4,870 $ (mup 10,900 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

3.0% -6.1 7.9 milioni

98.9 milioni

politikaSi dominirebs eTiopiis saxalxo revoluciuri demokratiuli fronti, magram premierministrma hailemaria desalenma ver SeZlo 2012 wels gardacvlili winamorbedis – meles zanavis msgavsad, Zlierad exelmZRvanela. SesaZloa, partiam 2015 wlis arCevnebamde gadaayenos desaleni. miuxedavad amisa, arCevnebs am frontis kandidati moigebs. eTnikuri daZabuloba SeiaraRebul protests gamoiwvevs, Tumca es mTavrobisTvis

erayis axali premier-ministri haider al-abadi 30 weli gadasaxlebaSi – britaneTSi cxovrobda. am periodSi man manCesteris universitetSi meqanikuri inJinris ganaTleba miiRo. axla igi iSviaTi sirTulis gamowvevis winaSe dgas: SeaCeros erayis saxelmwifos ngreva. misi winamorbedis nuri al-maliqis mmarTvelobis avtoritarulma stilma gamoiwvia „islamuri saxelmwifos“ xelmZRvanelobiT mowyobili sunitebis amboxeba. axalma

mefe abdula meorem, efeqtiani saxelmwifo marTvisa da dapirebuli reformebis kombinaciiT, raSic erTguli jari umagrebda zurgs, Seakava socialuri Zalebi, romlebmac sxva qveynebSi `arabuli gazafxuli~ gamoiwvia. Tumca, reformebi ar ganxorcielebula, rasac SesaZloa, politikuri winaaRmdegoba, quCis aqciebi da mdgomareobis gamwvaveba mohyves – miT umetes, rom mezobel siriasa da eraySi `islamuri saxelmwifos~ amboxeba

kenia mSp-s zrda

5.7% 1,140 $ (mup 2,470 $)

inflacia

5.8%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-5.4 46.8 milioni

xelisuflebis mSvidobiani cvlilebis Semdeg, uhuru keniatas koaliciuri mTavroba uzrunvelyofs politikuri sistemis mzard stabilurobas. xelisufleba ganawildeba qveynis 47 axal administraciaze, ramac momavalSi SesaZloa konfliqtebi gamoiwvios. usafrTxoeba kvlav gamowvevad rCeba. somaleli samxedro jgufi `al-Sababi~, adgilobrivi ukmayofilo xalxis monawileobiT, srulmasStabiani amboxebis mowyobiT imuqreba.

kenia: frenis marSruti mSp, %-li zrda

6 5 4 3 2 1

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-4.7 6.5 milioni

qveyanaSi sekularul liberalebsa da islamist konservatorebs Soris SeTanxmebis miRweva rTulia. situacias kidev ufro amZimebs SeiaraRebuli dajgufebebi, romlebsac sakuTari regionuli interesebi amoZravebT. 2014 wlis bolos Catarda referendumi konstituciur cvlilebebze, rac stabilizaciis imeds aCens. Zaladobam SeaCera, magram ar gaanadgura navTobproduqtebi. navTobSi investiciebis gegmam SesaZloa ekonomikur zrdas Seuwyos xeli.

maroko mSp-s zrda

4.3%

mSp erT sulze

3,250 $ (mup 7,890 $)

inflacia

1.7%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

-5.0 34.0 milioni

politikuri sistemis mokrZalebul reformebs mohyveba progresi, magram es ar iqneba sakmarisi mefe muhamed meeqvsis dominanturi poziciis Sesaryevad. warmomadgenlebis aryola qveynis mmarTvelobaSi amomrCevelTa imedgacruebas iwvevs, Tumca reJimi mainc farTod popularulia da kritikuli mosazrebebis akrZalva mis gansjas arTulebs. subsidiebi da sapensio reformebi fiskalur pozicias waaxalisebs, magram Semosavlebisa da moxmarebis gazrdis mcdelobebs ar Seuwyobs xels.

30-wliani gadasaxlebis dros, manCesteris universitetSi inJiner-meqanikosis ganaTlebamiRebuli haider al-abadi iSviaTi sirTulis problemas awydeba – erayis saxelmwifos kraxis arideba. nuri al-maliqis memkvidrem, romlis avtoritaruli stilic `islamuri saxelmwifos~ meTaurobiT ganxorcielebuli sunituri amboxebis mamoZravebeli Zala iyo, Siitur ambiciebs, sunitur ajanyebasa da qurTul izolacias unda sZlios, raTa inkluziuri administracia Seqmnas. mas bevri dro ar aqvs. 2015 wlis bolos, sakiTxi SesaZloa gadawyvetili iyos, Tuki qurTebi damoukideblobas ganizraxaven, xolo sunitebi qveynis Crdilo-dasavleTiT mdebare mozrdil teritoriebze kontrols gaimyareben. misda sasargeblod, haider al-abads erayis dasavleli gulSematkivrebi uWeren mxars.

dasaxelebuli memkvidreebis nawilze ufro didxans icocxla. memkvidre – princi salmani 2015 wlis bolos 80 wlis Sesruldeba. meore memkvidre pirvelad 2014 wlis dasawyisSi dasaxelda. samefos, rogorc navTobis sagarantio mimwodeblis, pozicia imas niSnavs, rom regioni, amboxebis Sedegad kuboebiT aivseba, magram qveynis SigniT uTanxmoebis mosyidva iqneba SesaZlebeli. Tvali adevneT: sagareo vaWroba. 2015 wlis dasawyisSi, pirvelad, samefo ucxoeli investorebisTvis aqciebis bazars gaxsnis saimisod, rom navTobis garda, sxva proeqtebis dafinanseba moipovos.

samxreT afrika mSp-s zrda

2017

2016

2014

2015

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

2008

mSp erT sulze

nigeria

inflacia 5.8% 3,280 $ (mup 6,350 $)

inflacia

libani mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

4.2 %

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

-9.3 5.4 milioni

libanSi mTavari aqcenti mezobeli siriidan cvlilebebis talRis gadadebis aridebaze gamaxvildeba. premier-ministri Tamam salami saTaveSi udgas koalicias, romelic siriis mxardamWerebsa da nacionalistur Zalebs aerTianebs. miuxedavad imisa, rom es mtruli ganwyobebis gakontrolebis saSualebas iZleva, qveyanaSi sajaro politikis warmoebisTvis nayofieri niadagi ar aris. regionSi garkveuli stabilurobis damyarebiT ekonomika gaumjobesdeba, magram cudi sawyisi pirobebidan.

tradiciis Tanaxmad, mmarTveli saxalxo demokratiuli partiis Semdegi saprezidento kandidati CrdiloeTidan unda iyos, magram gudlaq jonaTans – amJamindel prezidentsa da samxreTis mkvidrs, TebervalSi arCevnebis mogebis imedi aqvs. mas konkurencias opoziciuri `sayovelTao progresis kongresi~ gauwevs. aseve safrTxes Seuqmnis islamisturi jgufebi, rogoricaa, magaliTad `boko harami~. afrikis udides ekonomikaSi zrdis wamaxalisebeli mSenebloba da momsaxureba iqneba, da ara navTobi.

libia mSp erT sulze

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

inflacia

mosaxleoba

4.4% 4.0% -0.3 30.6 milioni

5.4% 6.6%

jakob zumas saprezidento vadiT arCeva 2014 wlis maisSi politikis gagrZelebas moaswavebs. amasTan erTad gagrZeldeba daZabuloba afrikis erovnuli kongresis Sualedur da memarcxene blokebTan. savaluto da finansuri stimulirebis wyalobiT, ekonomika `gons modis~ Senelebuli zrdis Semdeg, magram dagegmil reformebs biznesis xelSewyobis mizniT, win aRudgebian profkavSirebi da maTi politikuri mokavSireebi.

siria mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

mosaxleoba

26,510 $ (mup 3 56,880 $)

90 wlis mefe abdula bin abdelaziz al-saudi sustadaa, magram

-3.7 53.5 milioni

2.4% 2,050 $ (mup 3,870 $)

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

saudis arabeTi

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

11,180 $ (mup 15,000 $)

mosaxleoba

inflacia

mSp-s zrda

-2.1

183.7 milioni

2.6% 9,660 $ (mup 15,370 $)

inflacia mosaxleoba

10.5%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

5.4%

biujetis balansi (mSp-s %)

mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

3.4% 7,480 $ (mup 13,530 $)

16.2% -7.5 20.0 milioni

CixSi Sesvla da Sekavebis politika siriis damangreveli samoqalaqo omis ganmsazRvrelia. alyaSi myofma prezidentma baSar al-asadma unda SeaCeros misi reJimis damxobis mcdelobebi. gare Zalebi, maT Soris aSS da irani,

2015 wlis pirovneba

ukmayofiloTa STagonebis wyaroa. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis moTxovniT, ekonomikis mokrZalebuli liberalizacia mimdinareobs, Tumca progresi Zalian neli iqneba.

mSp erT sulze

msoflio ricxvebSi qveynebi

msoflio 2015

romlebic amjerad erTsa da imave poziciaze imyofebian, sakmaris daxmarebas miawvdian sirias `islamuri saxelmwifos~ gaZlierebis SesaCereblad, magram arc imdens, rom siriam `islamuri saxelmwifos~ daSla SeZlos.

zimbabve mSp-s zrda mSp erT sulze

3.4% 229 $ (mup 211 $)

inflacia biujetis balansi (mSp-s %) mosaxleoba

5.8% -4.4 13.1 milioni

robert mugabe – qveynis mudmivi prezidenti, ambobs, rom xelisuflebis saTaveSi darCeba. Tumca igi 2015 wels 91 wlis gaxdeba. janmrTelobiTac veRar daikvexnis. SesaZlebelia, misi memkvidre mugabes meuRle – greisi gaxdes. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis programam ekonomika stabiluri gaxada 2013 wlis qaosuri arCevnebis Semdeg. Tumca, reformebi, romelTa ganxorcielebac savaluto fondma moiTxova, jer kidev metwilad ugulebelyofilia.

msoflio ricxvebSi industria

msoflio 2015

msoflio ricxvebSi industria saavtomobilo industria 95 Tavdacva da kosmosuri industria 95 energetika 96 garTobis industria 96

biznesgaremo msoflio mSp da vaWroba msoflios realuri mSp-s zrda (mup)%

3.8

daabandeben. sufTa eleqtromobilebis gayidvebis tempi SedarebiT naklebi iqneba, rac maRali fasebiTa da dasamuxti sadgurebis didi deficitiT iqneba ganpirobebuli. 2015 wels, energiis axal wyaroebze momuSave 500 000 avtomobilis gzaze gaSvebis mizans CineTic ki ver miaRwevs. moTxovna msoflios udides saavtomobilo bazarze Semcirdeba antikorufciuli kampaniis gamo, TumcaRa saqmeSi kontinenturi CineTis sul ufro mdidari moqalaqeebis moTxovna CaerTveba. 2015 wels avtomobilebis registraciaTa ricxvi 6%-iT, anu 20 milioniT gaizrdeba. amave dros, iafi da cocxali saSinao bazrebi ucxouri markebisadmi mZRolTa gazrdili `madis~ gamo, poziciebs daTmoben. aziaze msoflioSi daregistrirebuli axali 73 milioni avtomobilis 45% mova. regionSi indonezia iqneba lideri (12%-iani zrda), maSin, roca iaponia – aziis meore udidesi saavtomobilo bazari, `Tvlems~ (3%). aSS zrdis globalur temps aubams mxars 5%-iani matebiTa da 17 milioni axali registraciiT. firmebs, aq da mezobel meqsikaSi – laTinuri amerikis regionSi yvelaze mzardi moTxovnis bazarze, es axali qarxnebis agebisken ubiZgebs.

saerTaSoriso saagentos mixedviT, gamonabolqviT Sewuxebuli CineTi moTxovnis zrdis or mesameds uzrunvelyofs, 1.5 milioni erTeuliT gadaaWarbebs ra 2015 wlisaTvis aseTi avtomobilebisTvis dasaxul mizans. magram, transportSi gazis wili navTobis wilis mxolod 2% Tu iqneba.

saavtomobilo industria

2015

2015 wlis prognozi, Tu sxvagvarad ar aris miTiTebuli. msoflios jamuri maCveneblebi 60 qveynis monacemebs efuZneba, romelTa mSp msoflios mSp-s 95%-ze mets Seadgens.

5.0

3.8

3.2 3.4

2015 wels avtomobilebi ifrenen. eleqtromobilTa calkeul modelebs droSi mogzaurobac SeeZlebaT... vaglax, es mxolod 2015 wels, msoflios kinoekranebze gamomaval filmSi `ukan momavalSi, nawili I ~-Sia SesaZlebeli. ukan, realobaSi ki, 2011 2012 firmebi 2013 2014 2015 saavtomobilo asfaltze moZravi, Sigawvis Zravaze 3.0 2.7

didi recesiidan xuTi wlis Tavze, msoflio ekonomikas kvlavac arasaxarbielo forma gaaCnia, Tumca 2015 weli gaumjobesebis imeds badebs. ganviTarebadi qveynebi miviwyebul 8. 4da stimulebs xelaxla aRmoaCenen 5.3%-iT gaizrdebian. ganviTare5. 9zrdas buli qveynebi aaCqareben da miaRweven 2.5%-ian niSnuls 3. 8 gamococx– umeteswilad, aSS-is lebis wyalobiT. 3. 5sarezervo aSS-is federaluri obligaciebis gamosyidvis meqa1. 7 sistemis – `iafi nizmiT momuSave fulis~ epoqa warsuls Cabardeba. firmebi interesiT daakvirdebian aSS-Si saprocento ganakveTis matebas. The Economist Intelligence Unit pirvel zrdas daaxloebiT wlis SuaSi moelis. es kapitals ukan, aSS-Si miizidavs da gazrdis risks ganviTarebadi qveynebisaTvis. miuxedavad amisa, investorebi umeteswilad SeinarCuneben interess maRalSemosavliani bazrebisadmi. globaluri ekonomikis yvelaze didi riski maRali davalianebis mqone evropaSia, sadac deflaciis saSiSroebaa. CineTi meore ukiduresobaa da misi 7%-iani zrda aziasa da sxvagan, savaWro partniorebis mdgomareobas waexmareba. amave dros, CineTis mmarTvelebs or amocanas Soris mouwevT balansireba. erTi mxriv, maT valebSi Cafluli finansuri seqtoris moTokva, xolo meore mxriv swrafi zrdis SenarCuneba unda SeZlon. Secdomis

london@eiu.com wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit

riski maRalia. msoflio vaWroba 5%-iT gaizrdeba da Cinuri iuani saerTaSoriso vaWrobaSi sul ufro xSirad iqneba gamoyenebuli. globaluri vaWrobis foni ufro kaSkaSa gaxdeba, Tuki wynari okeanis rkalis qveynebi da maTgan damoukideblad evropa, aSS-sTan Tavisufali vaWrobis paqts gaaformeben, rac 2015 wels savsebiT SesaZlebelia.

6.6

2014

mopoveba 98 sacalo vaWroba 99 telekomi 99 mogzauroba da turizmi 99

2.9 2.6

2013

aRWurviloba 97 kompiuteruli programireba da momsaxureba 98 media 98 liTonebi da wiaRiseulis

3.8

2012

3.2 3.4

3.0 2.7

2011

2.9 2.6

3.8

5.0

6.6

msoflio vaWrobis zrda (aSS dolari) %

finansuri momsaxureba 96 sursaTi da fermeruli meurneobebi 97 jandacva 97 sainformacio teqnologiebis

samgzavro avtomobilebis registracia % cvlileba axlo aR. da afrika

8. 4

azia da avstral-azia

5. 9

laTinuri amerika

Tavdacvis kontraqtorebi wnexis qveS moeqcnen. aSS-Si – msoflios yvelaze mZlavri samxedro industriis samSobloSi, Lockheed Martin’s-is 400 miliardi Rirebulebis sawarmoo xazSi gamoSvebuli F-35-s – mravaltanjul gamanadgureblebs, rogorc iqna gamoiyeneben. TumcaRa, CineTisa da ruseTis garda samxedro xarjebi yvelgan ucvleli darCeba. miuxedavad amisa, industriis guneba-ganwyobilebaze, ramdenimewliani savalalo droebis Semdeg, es dadebiTad imoqmedebs. CineTis mier politikuri Zalauflebis sferos gazrdis kvalobaze, gaizrdeba misi samxedro xarjebi da 2015 wels 160 miliard dolars miaRwevs,

3. 8

dasavleT evropa aR. evropa da ruseTi

Tvali adevneT: daaweqiT aqseleratoris saterfuls. eleqtro da wyalbadiT gamarTul avtomobilebs ufro sufTa mwvane imiji ki aqvT, magram ,,sufTa~ bunebriv gazze momuSave avtoebic imyareben poziciebs. energiis

Tavdacva

3. 5 1. 7

momuSave avtomobilebis maxasiaTeblebis daxvewiT dakavdebian. momxmarebelTa gemovneba da sawvavis xarjis Semcirebis survili efeqtianobis amaRlebaze koncentrirebis mizezia. igive exeba ufro mkacr regulaciebs. evrokavSirs Semoaqvs tendenciis damamkvidrebeli naxSirbadis emisiis gasaSualoebuli standartebi. avtomrewvelebi maT 2015 wlidan unda daemorCilon. tradiciul sawvavze momuSave avtomobilebi fokusSi darCeba, Tumca Nissan da sxva markebi did investiciebs hibridebSic

2015 weli fokusSi usafrTxoebaze orientirebuli evrokavSiris maregulireblebi `qselSi CarTuli manqanebis~ gabatonebis tendencias gaaZliereben. 2015 wlis oqtombrisaTvis evropis yvela axali avtomobili unda Seicavdes eCall sistemas, romelic CamontaJebuli SIM-baraTis mier, sagzao SemTxvevis Semdeg monacemebs daamuSavebs da mas gadaudebeli daxmarebis samsaxurs miawvdis. savaraudod, mZRolebs ufro metad miizidavs teqsturi Setyobinebis akrefis gareSe, xmiT aqtivaciis garTobis, axlomdebare restornebis SemoTavazebisa da moparvis SemTxvevaSi avtomobilebis avtomaturad dablokvis servisebi. manqana, romelic policiaSi rekavs, Tu mZRoli mTvralia, naklebad mimzidvelia. amerikuli AT&T ukve muSaobs avtomwarmoeblebTan, magaliTad General Motors-Tan da Audi-sTan, romlebic 2015 wels gamouSveben 4G ukabelo kavSiriT aRWurvil avtomobilebs. GSMA – satelekomunikacio kompaniaTa asociacia, varaudobs, rom 2015 wels gayiduli avtomobilebis 20%-s Sesabamisi kavSiris mowyobiloba eqneba.

msoflio ricxvebSi industria

globaluri ekonomikis gamococxlebis fonze, 2015 wels energiis mTliani moxmareba 3%-iT gaizrdeba da gadauswrebs nedli navTobis moTxovnis

Tvali adevneT: zRvis cvlileba. gamonabolqvis Semcirebis enTuziastTa yuradRebas sazRvao transporti saxmeleTosTan SedarebiT naklebad ipyrobda. es ase aRar iqneba: 2015 wlis pirveli ianvridan gamkacrdeba gogirdis standartebi evropisa da CrdiloeT amerikis napirebTan moZravi gemebisaTvis. sazRvao kompaniebi

garTobis industriis xarjebi globaluri samomxmareblo xarjebi, $ mlrd televizia filmebi

video TamaSebi

musika

42 72

42 59

2011

2015

wyaro: PwC

254

218

klebadi popularoba holivuds azaralebs, Tumca digitalizaciiT studiebi ixeireben. cifruli filmebis gayidvebi 2015 wels 19%-iT gaizrdeba da mTeli bazris mexuTeds daikavebs, rasac early windowing teqnologia, anu filmebis cifruli versiebis diskebze Caweramde gayidva ganapirobebs. holivudi imedovnebs, rom strimingis saitebi mas CineTSi SeRwevis saSualebas miscems (aq arsebuli mkacri kvotebi 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 68.2 65.0

Tua. energiis deficitis gaTvaliswinebiT, gagrZeldeba Cinuri reaqtorebis mSenebloba. misi ,,mesame Taobis~ AP1000 birTvuli reaqtori usafrTxoebis Semowmebas 2015 wlis bolos gaivlis. ucnauria, magram amave wels iaponiis reaqtorebic `gacocxldebian~.

2015 wels kinoekranebze axalgamosuli filmi `garToba~ yavlgasuli komikosis istoriaa, romelic aSS-is samxreT-dasavleTis udabnos StatebSi erTi gamosvliT cdilobs karieris mwvervalze dabrunebas. garTobis seriozuli industria gacilebiT Tavdajerebul gzas daadgeba. sabuRaltro firma PwC mixedviT, televiziaSi kreatiulobisa da `fulis keTebis~ `oqros xanis~ mimdinareobis kvalobaze, xelmomwerTa da licenziebis moculoba 250 miliard dolars gadaaWarbebs. globaluri sakaso Semosavali filmebis gayidvidan 2011 111 4%-iT gaizarda da 40 miliard 2012 dolars miaRwevs. miwodebis 112 mxares 2013 holivudi kvlavac 109 dominanti darCeba, Tumca industria 2014 sxvaganac yvavis. nigeriis 104 aRmavali „nolivudis~ filmebi 2015 98 `oskarisTvis~ 2015 wlidan ibrZoleben. DVD da Blu-ray teqnologiaTa

63.9 61.1

68.2 65.0

63.9 61.1

60.6 58.3

sufTa gazis sasargeblod daTmobs wils. CineTis mcdeloba, Tavadac gamoiyenos uzarmazari fiqlis gazis maragebi, geopolitikur sirTuleebsa da teqnologiur problemebs gadaawydeba. qveyana daaCqarebs warmoebis zrdis temps 2015 wels dasaxuli 6.5 miliardi kuburi metris sawarmoeblad, Tumca es aSS-is 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 warmoebis umniSvnelo nawili

garTobis industria

60.6 58.3

68.2 68.2 65.0 65.0

63.9 63.9 61.1 61.1

60.6 60.6 58.3 58.3

59.5 59.5 57.5 57.5

zrdas, 94 2011 rac 2%-iT, anu dReSi 111 milion barelamde gaizrdeba. 2012 sainvesticio bumis Semdeg 112 dasavleli gigantebi SedarebiT 2013 109 mcire investirebiT maRali mar42 Jebis miRebis taqtikas airCeven, 2014 42 104 72 42 Chevron Tavis udides TumcaRa 72 98 2015 42 metoqeze 59 Exxon Mobil-ze metad 91 59 da 40 miliardi gairjeba aSS 91 83 dolaris investirebas moaxdens. 83 did menavTobeTa warmateba mniSvnelovnad iqneba damokide254 buli aSS-is Selfuri warmoebis 218 254 bumis dinamikaze. am ukanasknelis 218 mizeziT, globaluri miwodeba Zalze doneze 2011 komfortul 2015 darCeba da saSualo wliuri fasi 2011 2015 42 geopolitikuri sirTuleebis 72 42 miuxedavad mainc daecema. 59 paralelurad mimdinare fiqlis 91 gazis ,,revolucia~ Txevadi 83 gazis warmoebis axal amerikul qarxnebs gauxsnis gzas. maTgan pirveli – Sabine Pass luizianaSi 254 2015 wels 218 amoqmeddeba. operaciebs daiwyeben poloneTisa da litvis saimporto terminalebic, rac aRmosavleT evropas rusuli 2011 2015 miwodebis uRlidan TavdaxsnaSi daexmareba. mZlavri aziuri moTxovna, yvelaferTan erTad, gazis mwar2011 2012 SeeSveleba, 2013 2014vinaidan 2015 moeblebsac 2011 2012 2013 SedarebiT 2014 2015 binZuri qvanaxSiri

gogirdis naklebi Semcvelobisa da met airovan sawvavs moiTxoven. sabolood, gaTxevadebuli bunebrivi airis momxmarebeli gemebi popularuli gaxdeba.

59.5 57.5

111 111 112 112 109 109 104 104 98 98

msoflio 2015

56.8 55.5

energetika

Brent, wliuri saSualo $/bareli

2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015

59.5 57.5

Tvali adevneT: Boeing Airbus-is winaaRmdeg. Boeing aviakosmosuri da Tavdacvis, kosmosuri da usafrTxoebis sistemaTa industriis mwvervalze dgas, Tumca misi $33 miliardi dolaris Rirebulebis Tavdacvis divizioni Seikveceba. samoqalaqo ca ganviTarebis met imeds saxavs da Boeing-is arasamxedro divizionis Semosavlebi bank JPMorgan-is informaciiT, 10%-iT gaizrdeba. Sedegad, didi zomis TviTmfrinavebis mimzidvel bazarze, evropeli metoqe Airbus Boeing-s Seaviwrovebs. misma pirvelma A350 modelma frena 2014 wlis bolos daiwyo, xolo TviTmfrinavebis raodenoba 2015 wels 17-s miaRwevs. miuxedavad amisa, Boeing didi gabaritebis TviTmfrinavTa bazris or mesameds 2015 wels mainc SeinarCunebs.

navTobis fasi

56.8 56.8 55.5 55.5

anu samxedro-sakonsultacio firma IHS Jane’s-is informaciis mixedviT, gadaaWarbebs gaerTianebuli samefos, safrangeTisa da germaniis jamur xarjebs. sxva mzardi aziuri bazrebi dasavluri Tavdacvis industriis firmebis sacduri gaxdeba. Zveli metoqeoba da axali aliansebi wyalqveSa navebsa da sxva mowyobilobebze xarjvis matebas gamoiwvevs. CineTis sazRvao gaZlierebiT SeSfoTebuli iaponia da avstralia samxedro teqnologiebs gauziareben erTmaneTs. indoeTi amerikuli iaraRis damamzadebelTa umsxvilesi sazRvargareTuli samiznea 2014-2015 fiskalur wlebSi, 38 miliardi dolaris samxedro xarjebiT, rac wina wlis maCvenebels 12%-iT aRemateba. TumcaRa, ucxoel investorebs adgilobrivi samxedro kontraqtorebis wilis mxolod 49%-s SeZena Tu SeeZlebaT. komerciuli TviTmfrinavebis gayidvebi diversificirebuli Tavdacvis industriis firmebisaTvis erTgvari xsna iqneba. amave dros, kvleviT centr MarketLineis informaciiT, arasamxedro moTxovna aviakosmosuri da Tavdacvis firmebis Semosavlis mxolod mesameds qmnis, rac 2015 wels sul raRac 4%-iT gaizrdeba da 1.2 miliard dolars miaRwevs.

56.8 55.5

Cinur konoTeatrebSi ucxouri filmebis Cvenebas zRudavs), magram cenzura onlainsivrceSic Zlierdeba. piratuli Canawerebi aqac da sxvaganac kidev erTi problemaa, rasac mxolod 1%-iT zrdadi musikis industriac kargad aCvenebs. fizikur mediaze Cawerili musikis (CDs, musikaluri video da sxva) gayidvebi 9%-iT Semcirdeba, xolo musikis strimingis Semosavlebi 18%-iT gaizrdeba. Tvali adevneT: filmebi `wamowoliT~.aSS-Si, romelic globaluri sakaso Semosavlebis 30%-s moicavs, kinoTeatrebis qselebi AMC Entertainment-is liderobas mibaZaven, romelic 600 milion dolars xarjavs kinoTeatrebis gafarToebaze didi da komfortuli sofa-skamebiT. kinoTeatrebis ganaxleba zrdis daswrebas, da Semosavlebs sul mcire 33%-iT. TumcaRa, trends saSualo klientisTvis arasasiamovno faqtic – bileTebis gaZvirebac mohyveba.

finansuri momsaxureba

regulacia, valebi da dune zrda finansistTa sami didi Tavistkivili iqneba. bankebis, mzRvevelebisa da aqtivebis menejerebis resursebi umeteswilad nela mzard ganviTarebul qveynebSia dabandebuli. benkingSi, rogorc umsxviles segmentSi, es maCvenebeli sam meoTxeds aRwevs. vali problema iqneba, gansakuTrebiT – evropaSi. regulatorebi moTxovnebs gaamkacreben, rac bankebis umravlesobas tradiciuli saqmianobisagan depozitebis miRebis gziT sesxebis gacemisken daabrunebs. es yvelaferi bankebis ZiriTad sasesxo saqmianobas daazaralebs. globalurad, sesxebis moculoba 65 trilion dolars miaRwevs, Tumca rogorc aqtivebis wili, myarad darCeba 50%-ian niSnulze. zeerovnuli bazel I I-is regulaciebis mixedviT, bankebi valdebulni arian sajarod gamoaqveynon angariSebi sakredito mxaris Sesaxeb (aqtivebis proporcia, magaliTad, sesxebi, rogorc sabaziso kapitalis wili). aSS-Si, ivlisis 21-Si amoqmeddeba ukiduresad CaxlarTuli volkeris kanoni. es bankebs ukrZalavs `sakuTari resursebiT fasiani qaRaldebiT vaWrobas~ (faqtobrivad, sakuTar aqtivebze fsonebis dadebas) magram mraval `rux zonas~ tovebs da rTuli iqneba Sesasruleblad.

msoflio ricxvebSi industria liderebi

msoflio 2015 2014 kapitali uTuod datovebs ganviTarebadi qveynebis birJebs, obligaciebsa da valutebs. 2015 wlis Sua periodSi aSS-is federaluri sarezervo sistema Seamcirebs obligaciebis gamosyidvas, rogorc ki ekonomikuri kondiciebi saprocento ganakveTis awevis saSualebas miscems. TumcaRa, ganviTarebadi qveynebis bazrebidan totaluri gaqceva mosalodnelic ar aris (magram SeuZlebelic araferia). riskis calkeuli aspeqtebi ukve gadafasda ganviTarebuli qveynebidan kapitalis perioduli gamosvlis fonze. bankebisaTvis udidesi SesaZlebloba aseT bazrebze tradiciuli sasesxo saqmianobis Sedegad dadgeba. aziaSi swrafad mzardi Semosavlebi Seqmnis moTxovnas dazogvis axal produqtebze, romlebic krizisis Semdgomi riskis Tavidan acilebisa da SedarebiT iafi produqtebis, magaliTad, sabirJo indeqsinstrumentebis tyveobaSi myofi aqtivebis menejerebs waeSveleba. mzRvevelebi, romlebsac mzardi saprocento ganakveTisa da dabali premiumSemosavlebis pirobebSi uwevT cxovreba, igive problemebs awydebian. amave dros, bevrisaTvis ganviTarebad qveynebSi dasavleTis safinanso gigantebis warmateba efemeruli iqneba Tavad bankebis sisustisa da adgilobrivi liderebisaTvis gamiznuli favoritizmis praqtikis gamo.

maragebi wliuri moxmarebis 30%-s gadafaravs, Tumca maragis 30%-ze meti msoflio bazrisTvis xelmiuwvdomeli darCeba da CineTis sacavebSi iqneba. cotaoden „intrigas“ simindi Seqmnis: amerikeli eqsportiorebi nerviulad daakvirdebian, gaauqmebs Tu ara CineTi genetikurad modificirebuli simindis importze akrZalvas (albaT, ara). aqedan gamomdinare, CineTi 40%iT nakleb siminds iyidis, rac simindis udides importiorad misi gadaqcevis gzaze, mxolod „mcire waforxilebaa“. fermebis bazars didi tendenciebi Seexeba. mosaxleobis zrda, meti biosawvavi da Semosavlebis mateba ganviTarebad qveynebSi inflacias Seuwyobs xels. amave dros, 2015-Si, marcvlis miwodebis moTxovnaze siWarbis gamo maragebi gaizrdeba da fasebi Semcirdeba. 2015 wels EIU-s sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis indeqsi 6%-iT Semcirdeba. Tvali adevneT: kakaos aRmasvla. tkbileulze jiuti moTxovna dasavleTSi da Sokoladis popularoba aziaSi kakaoze moTxovnas aamaRlebs. moxmareba izrdeba CineTSi, magram vinaidan saSualo Cineli wliurad mxolod 70 gram kakaos moixmars, am qveyanaSi zrdis didi potenciali arsebobs simsuqnis zrdasTan erTad. maRali fasebi yvelaze metad kot d’ivuars axeirebs, romelic miwodebis 40%-s uzrunvelyofs.

2015 weli fokusSi calkeuli miznebis Seusrulebloba namdvilad sasargebloa. `2015 wlis sagzao rukis~ mixedviT, sainformacio teqnologebis burji International Business Machines (IBM) jiutad cdilobda, 2015 wels aqciaze mogebis norma 20 dolarisTvis gaetolebina. kritikosebi mudmivad esxmodnen Tavs maTi azriT am `2015 wlis mkvlelobis sagzao rukas~ xarjebis mudmivi Semcirebis, aqtivebis gayidvisa da eqspertizis Semcirebis gamo. kvartaluri mogebis bolodroindeli Semcirebis Sedegad, Big Blue-m rogorc iqna gaauqma samizne, romlis miRwevas mainc ver SeZlebda. aman investorebi daafrTxo, Tumca es kursis cvlilebas uxsnis gzas (Tvali adevneT aqciaze mogebis axal prognozs ianvarSi. JPMorgan-is prognoziT, 17.77 dolari). IBM-is udavod Zlieri mxareebis miuxedavad, man unda moaxerxos qlaudsistemebis aRmasvlasTan adaptireba, rac Zirs uTxris misi aRWurvilobis gayidvasa da biznesmodels. amave dros, IBM-is qlaud Semosavali 50%-iT gaizarda da kvlavac unda gaizardos. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, IBM qlaud-sistemebis iseTi liderebis msxverpli gaxdeba, rogoric Amazon-ia. $bn 12.2

149

laven. indoeTSi, sadac mTavroba 4. 7 mosaxleobas saxelmwifo uni-182 versaluri jandacvis sistemis 39 4. 6 SemoRebas hpirdeba, xarjebi 36 2. 8 18%-iT gaizrdeba. aSS-Si baraq 68 1. 9 obamas sadavo jandacvis reforma xels uwyobs 50 0. 8 jandacvis sqemebSi CarTulTa 81 -0.6 swraf zrdas. 2015 wels ricxvis msxvilma kompaniebma dazRveviT srul ganakveTze momuSaveTa 70%

maCveneblis orjer da metad Semcireba moxerxda. amasTan, cxra regionidan rva ver miaRwevs reproduqciuli janmrTelobis misawvdomobasTan dakavSirebiT dawesebul mizans (aRmosavleT azia gamonaklisia). samuSao bevria da seqtemberSi gasamarT samitze, 2030 wlisaTvis axali miznebi SemuSavdeba.

sainformacio teqnologiebis samomxmareblo xarjebi jandacvaze %-li cvlileba

aRWurviloba

axlo aRmosavleTi da afrika

sursaTi da fermeruli meurneobebi

jandacva

11.1 azia da avstral-azia

9.1 aRmosavleT evropa da ruseTi

7. 4 laTinuri amerika

7.1 CrdiloeT amerika

5. 0 dasavleT evropa

0.9 momavali weli, usaTuod, moRuSuli amindisa da araCveulebrivi mosavlis mosawyeni weli gaxdeba. SiSebi, rom 2014-2015 wlis mosavalze uaryofiTad imoqmedebda El Niño-is amindis paterni, albaT ar gamarTldeba. marcvleulis bazrebzec mTavari istoria maRali mosavali da Semcirebuli fasebi gaxdeba. xorblis warmoeba sarekordo – 709 milion tonas miaRwevs, rac evrokavSiris saocari mosavliT iqneba ganpirobebuli da aSS-s wamyvani eqsportioris pozicias daakargvinebs. 1990iani wlebis bolos, roca aSS msoflio xorblis eqsportis 28%-s uzrunvelyofda, misi wili 2014-2015 wlebis sezonSi 18%-ze metad daecema, rac metwilad ufro maRali safaso konkurenciiTaa gamowveuli. msoflio

jandacvis xarjebze 2015 wels sapirispiro Zalebi imoqmedebs. mis stimulirebas ganviTarebad qveynebSi ukeTesi mkurnaloba da gaumjobesebuli zrda, aseve mosaxleobis globaluri mateba da dabereba (sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba 73 weli gaxdeba) moaxdens. amave dros, xelmomWirne saxelmwifoebis mier kompaniebsa da mimwodeblebze ganxorcielebuli wnexi fasebs dabla daswevs. ase rom, globaluri jandacvis xarjebi daaxloebiT 5%-iT gaizrdeba. regionebs Soris gansxvaveba udidesi iqneba. afrikasa da axlo aRmosavleTSi swrafad gaizrdeba sajaro da kerZo jandacvis momsaxureba. navTobiT mdidari iseTi qveynebi, rogorebic emiratebi da saudis arabeTi arian, jandacvas Semosavlebis diversifikaciis wyarod ganixi-

(Semdegi wlidan ki 95%) unda uzrunvelyon, rac zrdis xarjebs. ekonomikurad myife qveynebis – portugaliis, espaneTisa da saberZneTis pacientebi izaraleben imiT, rom jandacvis xarjebi 2008 wlis doneze dabla darCeba. CrdiloeT evropaSi mdgomareoba ukeTesia, Tumca saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcireba bevr momxmarebels kerZo seqtoris momsaxurebaze gadasvlisken ubiZgebs. Tvali adevneT: saukunis qmedeba. 2000 wels gaerom `aTaswleulis ganviTarebis~ 8 mizani SeimuSava. ZiriTadi samizne dedaTa janmrTelobis gaumjobeseba da Cvil bavSvTa sikvdilianobis Semcireba iyo. sabednierod, 1990 wlidan bavSvTa sikvdilianobis

`cifruli informaciis siuxve uTuod aisaxeba mis gamoyenebaze moTxovnis zrdaSi. TumcaRa, aRWurviloba sainformacio teqnologiebze 2015 wels dasaxarji 2.3 trilioni dolaris mxolod or mexuTeds uzrunvelyofs, rac proporciulad Semcirdeba~, – acxadebs Forrester Research. informaciis „qlaud~ sistemebze ganTavsebis mzardi tendencia Seamcirebs xarjebs serverebsa da monacemTa Senaxvis mowyobilobaze, nawilobriv imis gamo, rom qlaudservisebis iseTi momwodeblebi, rogorebic Amazon da Google arian, iaf variantebs amjobineben. am mowyobilobebis gayidva mTlianad sainformacio teqnologiebis aRWurvilobaze odnav nela gaizrdeba, rac Tavis mxriv 4%-iT moimatebs. `pesimizmi sayovelTao ar aris. tabletebis damamzadeblebi 2015 wels 15%-iT meti danadgaris gayidvas varaudoben~, – miuTiTebs kvleviTi firma IDC. miaRwevs ra saetapo niSnuls, tabletebis gayidvaTa moculoba sul mcire,

msoflio ricxvebSi industria

gautoldeba personaluri kompiuterebis gayidvaTa ricxvs. TumcaRa, zrdis tempi SarSandelze gacilebiT naklebi iqneba. lideri mwarmoeblebi TavianTi produqciis umwikvlo xarisxis msxverplni gaxdebian, radganac mravali momxmarebeli daaskvnis, rom maTi arsebuli modelebi kargi xarisxisaa. Apple-is iPad-s mouwevs Semotevebis mogerieba Google-is Android da Microsoft Windows sistemebze momuSave tabletebisgan. leptopebTan miaxloebuli tabletebic moipoveben axal fanebs. Apple am gamowvevas albaT TiTqmis 13-diuimiani tabletis gamoSvebiT upasuxebs, biznesis gulis mosagebad. Tvali adevneT: Casacmeli gajetebi. kompiuterizebuli smartglasebis, fitnesmonitorebisa da msgavsi aparaturis gayidvebi 2015 wels 60%-iT gaizrdeba qseluri aRWurvilobis damamzadebeli Cisco-s informaciis mixedviT. smartfonebis wamyvani mwarmoeblebi aseve moisurveben `namcxvris wilis~ mopovebas. Apple-is smartfoni, romelsac didi xania elodnen, momxmareblebis majebs 2015 wlidan daamSvenebs. TumcaRa es teqnologia srulyofili sulac ar aris, –aseTi aRWurvilobis mxolod 4% iqneba fiWuri kavSiriT uzrunvelyofili da mouqnel 2G telefonebTan Bluetooth da WiFi kavSirs saWiroebs.

kompiuteruli programireba

monacemTa gavrcelebis analizSi. sapirispirod, 100 ganviTarebadi qveyana programirebis xarjebis mxolod 6%-s uzrunvelyofs. `mobiluri aparaturis gavrcelebis kvalobaze, Google Android-is saoperacio sistema yvela konkurents jamurad daCagravs, kvleviTi firma Gartner-is mixedviT. amave dros, mobiluri internetis zrda borotmoqmedebs hakerobisaTvis ufro vrcel asparezs Seuqmnis. TumcaRa, organizaciebic `Wkviandebian~ da usafrTxoebaze xarjebs 2015 wels 5%-iT, 77 miliard dolaramde gazrdian~, – acxadebs Gartner. es kargi ambavia usafrTxoebis sistemebSi momuSave biznesebisa da qlaud provaiderebisaTvis. usafrTxoebis programirebis 10%-s 2015 wels „qlaudi“ uzrunvelyofs. Tvali adevneT: 2015 wels, Appleis ambicia SopingSi, revolucia moexdina, Zalas moikrebs. Apple-is gadaxdis axali servisis SemoReba `miaxloebis teqnologiebis~ gavrcelebasTan erTad, maT iPhone 6 an 2015 wlidan AppleWatch-Si ganTavsebis Sedegad momxmareblebi sakredito baraTebis gatarebis magivrad mobilur telefonebs gamoiyeneben. aSS-Si debiutis Semdeg, virtualuri safuleebi 2015 wels evropas miaRweven. bankebisTvis `cifruli Suamavlobis moSla~ damatebiTi safrTxea.

media

da momsaxureba

2015 wels internetis mosargebleTa ricxvi yovel as kacze 50-s miaRwevs. qselis Tavbrudamxvevi zrdis kvalobaze, programireba am industriis yvelaze damaintrigebeli nawili iqneba. kvleviTi firma Forresteris mixedviT, programirebaze xarjebi 10%-iT gaizrdeba. tendencias CineTi da indoeTi ganapirobeben, romlebzec mobiluri internetiT axal mosargebleTa naxevari modis. aSS ara mxolod wamyvani teqnologiuri bazari, aramed zrdis wyaroc iqneba, sadac programirebis xarjebi 7%-iT gaizrdeba. programirebis firmebisTvis gadamwyvetia, rom aSS bazris yvelaze swrafad mzard segmentebSi liderobs, maT Soris mobiluri, qlaud da didi monacemebis teqnologiebSi. magaliTad, flobs ra bazris 60%-s,

satelevizio reklama reklamis mesveurTa saukeTeso Semosavlis wyaroa (PwC-is prognoziT, igi gasul wels 5%-iT mets, 82 miliard dolars moitans), Tumca internetreklama swrafad eweva mas (12%-iani zrda, 149 miliardi dolari). cifruli reklama izrdeba beWduri reklamis Semcirebis kvalobazec. reklamis damkveTebi amjobineben saZiebo sistemebis mier SemoTavazebul mzard popularobas da zomadobas, maSin, roca Facebook ukve Google-sac jobnis reklamis damkveTTa mizidvis TvalsazrisiT. gazeTebma aseve kargad uwyian programuli sistemebis safrTxeebze, romlebic reklamebiT algoriTmebis meSveobiT vaWroben. bevri saagentosTvis es norma xdeba. cifruli `moZaleba~ gaafTrebuli konkurenciiT gamZafrebul inovaciebs daaCqarebs. rek-

lamis damkveTTa saameblad axali ambebis saitebi mkiTxvelebis ufro detalur monitorings awarmoeben da gverds auvlian privatulobasTan dakavSirebul mRelvarebas. zrdis kidev erTi sfero „adgilobrivi reklamireba~ iqneba. es ZiriTadad promouSenisTvis gankuTvnili qonTenTia, rac SesaZloa gazeTis personalmac moamzados da misi garCeva axali ambebidan SeuZlebelia. informaciis fasiani wvdomis garda, gazeTebi Seecdebian maxvilgonivruli xerxebiT miizidon xalxi niusebSi meti fulis gadasaxdelad. es moicavs sazogadoebis dafinansebul Jurnalistikasa da fasiani statiebis modelebis SemoRebas fulis dabrunebis garantiiT. gazeTebis xvedri iseT bazrebze, rogorebic CineTi da indoeTia, ufro metad gaumjobesdeba, vidre ganviTarebul qveynebSi. zogadad, Jurnalebisa da gazeTebis industriis zrda 0,1% iqneba, rac wina wlebze ukeTesia. Tvali adevneT: Bloomberg. pirveli – man gardaqmna finansuri informaciis biznesi. amJamad Bloomberg-s 32 000 aTasze meti terminalis xelmomweri hyavs, romlebic weliwadSi daaxloebiT 2000 dolars ixdian. amas garda, man Seisyida yvelaferi – Jurnalebidan dawyebuli, sufTa teqnologiebis kvleviTi firmebiT damTavrebuli. Bloomberg-s problemebic hqonda da bankebs surT misi terminalebis mesijebis momsaxurebis ufaso alternativebis gamonaxva. amas Bloomberg-i cifrul teqnologiebSi didi investiciebiT upasuxebs da 2015 wels san-franciskoSi misi sakvlevi da sacdel-sakonstruqtoro centri srulad amoqmeddeba. eqperimentebi tardeba moZvelebuli formis mqone terminalebisaTvis, virtualuri realobisTvis Sesabamisi yursasmenebis msgavsi garegnobis misaniWeblad. liTonebi da wiaRiseulis mopoveba

msoflio 2015 rTxobs da maragebi da finansuri moTxovna aq Semcirdeba. magram CineTis realuri moTxovnileba maRali rCeba. 2015 wels qveyana kvlav iqneba orive am liTonze axali moTxovnis udidesi wyaro. CineTis eleqtrogadacemis sistemis ganviTareba kidev ufro met spilenZs moiTxovs, iseve rogorc misi saidumlo strategiuli sacavi. CineTis moTxovna 7%-iT gaizrdeba, misi saSinao warmoeba ki 9%-iT, rac fasebis stabilurobaSi aisaxeba. CineTis urbanizacia da moTxovnis zrda ufro msubuq avtomobilebze gazrdis aluminis moTxovnasa da miwodebas. Tumca, aluminis fasebi londonis liTonebis birJaze (LME) 2015 wels 16.5%-iT gaizrdeba, radganac CineTis gareT, wvdomis TvalsazrisiT, problemebia. nikelis madnis importiorebi maragis Seqmnas Seecdebian, vinaidan 2015 wels arsebuli rezervi ileva. indoneziis axali mTavroba wnexSi moeqceva – gaauqmos nedleulis eqsportze SemoRebuli akrZalva. 2015 wels avtomwarmoeblebi met liTons moiTxoven – iseve, rogorc uJangavi foladis mwarmoeblebi. londonis birJaze nikelis fasi aiwevs. Tvali adevneT: gaWeriT da amoTxareT. didi mompovebeli firmebis mepatroneebi gamonaxaven mizezebs sazeimod, vinaidan maTi xmamaRali sayvedurebi menejerebs aiZulebs xeli aiRon gafarToebaze da mopovebis efeqtianobis zrdaze fokusirdnen. maTgan udidesi – BHP Billiton gaixliCeba. meore udidesi – Rio Tinto, kapitalur xarjebs 2015 wels 8 miliard dolaramde Seamcirebs, rac 2012 wlis pikis naxevarze naklebia. amave dros, saukeTeso da advilad mopovebadi resursebis umetesoba ukve gamoyenebulia. danarCenis mopoveba SesaZloa Zviri gamodges. maRaroelebi warmoebis gadatanas ufro maRalmarJian warmoebaSic ver SeZleben. uwin rkina da qvanaxSiric momgebiani iyo, Tumca axla fasebi dabalia.

industriuli nedleuli $ fasebi, % cvlileba wina welTan SedarebiT

CineTSi zrdis Senelebis miuxedavad, is nedleulis bazrebis mTavar mamoZraveblad rCeba. es qveyana spilenZisa da aluminis naxevars moixmars, romlebic EIU samrewvelo nedleulis indeqsis ZiriTadi komponentebia. cindaos portSi liTonis giraod arasaTanadod gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebuli skandali investorebs daaf-

60 50 60 50 40 60 30 40 50 30 20 40 10 20 30 10 0 200 -10 10 -10 -20 0 -30 -20 -10 -30 -20 -30

nedleuli*

nikeli

2011 2011

2012 2012

2013 2013

2014 2014

2015 2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*industriuli nedleulis Sewonili indeqsi

60 50 40 30

17.2 17.2 14.8

msoflio ricxvebSi industria

msoflio 2015

sacalo vaWroba

globaluri sacalo movaWreebi problemebs waawydebian saSur bazrebze ganviTarebad qveynebSi. aseve Sin – dasavleTSic. BRIC-is qveynebi kvlavac mniSvnelovani darCeba, Tumca ufro naklebad, vidre adre. 2015 wels CineTSi 14%-iT meti saqoneli gaiyideba (rac aziisa da avstraliis sacalo vaWrobis zrdas CrdiloeT amerikisa da evropis jamuri zrdis ukan motovebis saSualebas miscems). magram CineTSi ucxouri firmebis winaaRmdeg mimdinare gamoZieba, magaliTad, msoflios udidesi sacalo qselis Walmartis winaaRmdeg, gangaSis zarebis Semokvris dros mianiSnebs. korufciis sawinaaRmdego kampania moxmarebaSic iWreba, ris gamoc fufunebis brendebi sul ufro frTxilad udgebian Cinur bazars. braziliis imedisgamacruebeli sacalo gayidvebi ki 2015 wels mxolod 5%-iT gaizrdeba. sacalo movaWreebi interess sxva ganviTarebad qveynebs miapyroben. magaliTad, MINT-s (meqsika, indonezia, nigeria da TurqeTi) da saharis samxreTiT mdebare qveynebis nawils (2015 wels kot d’ivuarSi bizness Carrefour gaxsnis). wamyvani qselebi kvlavac ecdebian daubrundnen bazrebs, romlebmac maTi zrda ganapiroba da romlebzedac marJebi da erT momxmarebelze xarjebi maRalia. magram didma movaWreebma, magaliTad, britanulma Tesco-m saSinao bazris wili axal tendenciebTan SeuTavseblobis gamo daTmo. Soperebis yofaqcevis polarizaciis gamo, isini umaRlesi xarisxis saqonlis SesaZenad fulis Senaxvasa da iaf produqtze nadirobas amjobineben. saSualo segmentis moTamaSeeebi didad dazaraldnen. e-komercia, romelic sul ufro metad warmoebs mobiluri telefonebis meSveobiT, efeqtebs aZlierebs. momxmarebeli TviT sursaTsac ki sul ufro xSirad onlainreJimSi SeiZens. cifruli gayidvebis udidesi bazari CineTia, sadac e-komercia 2013 wels 40%-ze metiT gaizarda. jamurad, 2015 wels sacalo gayidvebi 6%-iT gaizrdeba. Tvali adevneT: megamolebi. megamaRaziebi – Zalian, Zalian didi Senobebi axlo aRmosavleTSi kvlavac modaSia. 400 000 kvadratuli metri farTobis moli yatarSi 2015 wlis seqtemberSi aSendeba. wlis dasawyisSi dubaiSi 750

000 kvadratuli metri farTobis `msoflio molis~ mSeneblobas Seudgebian. dasrulebisas, es msoflios udidesi moli iqneba da misi farTobi 100 safexburTo moednisas gautoldeba. qveyana, romelmac daxurul sivrceSi ganTavsebuli udidesi saTxilamuri trasa Seqmna, msoflios ukve yvelaze did Tematur parks aCuqebs.

telekomi

yovel kvartalSi msoflios imaze meti mobiluri telefonis abonenti emateba, rac meqsikis mosaxleobas (daaxloebiT 120 milioni) Seadgens. 2015 wels abonentebis ricxvi 7 miliards gadaaWarbebs. tradiciuli telefonebis xarjze daxvewili telefonebis gavrcelebis kvalobaze, smartfonebis abonentTa ricxvi 20%-iT gaizrdeba, mobiluri internetis 2.4 miliard momxmareblamde da metoqeobas gauwevs tradiciul fiWur kavSirs. qseluri mowyobilobis damamzadebeli kompania Ericssonis informaciiT, mobiluri saubrebis intensivobis piki 2015 wels iqneba. konkurent Cisco-s informaciiT, monacemTa moculoba 70%-iT gaizrdeba. mesame Taobis (3G) telefonebis segmenti zrdas ganagrZobs, Tumca 4G-c moipovebs poziciebs. saSualod 4G-s gamoyeneba 15-jer meti informaciis generirebas iwvevs sxva mekavSireebTan SedarebiT, xolo zeswrafi kavSiri wamSi 500 megabitis (daaxloebiT erTi satelevizio programis zoma) informaciis CamotvirTvis saSualebas iZleva. siCqaris aTjer gasazrdelad, firmebi 5G sistemaSi fulis Cadebas ar moeridebian. CineTis ZTE prototipis damzadebas 2015 wels gegmavs. cifruli xmauri, xmauris gamomwvevebsac ar dazogavs. smartfonebis mepatroneTa ricxvi ganviTarebad qveynebSic izrdeba, romelTagan udidesi – indoeTi da CineTi zrdis 60%-s uzrunvelyofen. induri Micromax Informatics-is msgavsi firmebi milionobiT axali Tanamemamule momxmareblebis mozidvas Seecdebian. Xiaomi ukve liderobs CineTSi. Fitch Ratings-is informaciiT, ori didi kompaniis – Apple-isa da Samsung-is mier dakavebuli smartfonebis bazris wili 2015 wels Sesabamisad 14 da 25%-mde Semcirdeba (2013 wlis 15 da 31%-is sapirispirod).

smartfonebisa da monacemebis gamoyenebis zrdis miuxedavad, globaluri telekomebis Semosavali mxolod 2%-iT moimatebs, rac gazrdili safaso konkurenciiTa da xmis Semcirebuli kontribuciiTaa gamowveuli. Tvali adevneT: teqnikuri altruizmi. socialuri qseli Facebook telekomunikaciis kompaniebTan TanamSromlobs, raTa momxmarebels, martivi telefonebis meSveobiT, garkveul internetsaitebze, da ra Tqma unda Facebook-ze, magram ara Twitter-ze ufaso wvdoma SeeZloT. zambiaSi debiutis Semdeg, es servisi sxvaganac dainergeba. Facebook upiloto TviTmfrinavebs, satelitebsa da lazerebsac ki gamoiyenebs, kacobriobis erTmaneTTan daukavSirebeli nawilebis mis orbitaSi CasarTavad.

mogzauroba da turizmi

turizmis dRevandeli aRmavloba ufro kargi cxovrebis dabrunebaa, vidre biznesciklis etapi. es optimisturi prognozi, nawilobriv damokidebulia geopolitikuri problemebis simwvavis SerbilebasTan, gansakuTrebiT – axlo aRmosavleTsa da afrikaSi. ufro fundamenturi mniSvnelobisa iqneba azieli mogzauris gaaqtiureba. 2015 wels dasvenebis turizmis Semosavali Crdilo-aRmosav-

leT aziaSi 10%-iT gaizrdeba, miaRwevs 900 miliard dolars da gadaaswrebs evrokavSirsa da CrdiloeT amerikas. CineTi am tendenciis SuagulSia. aq, 2015 wlisTvis gamiznuli xuTwliani gegmiT, eqspluataciaSi 50 axali aeroporti unda Sevides. 100 milionze meti Cineli mogzauri 200 miliardze mets daxarjavs msoflioSi, rac bevrad aRemateba amerikelTa da germanelTa xarjebs. sargebels ganviTarebuli msoflioc naxavs. londonis sastumroebis mepatroneebs kidev erTi kargi weliwadis imedi unda hqondeT, xolo aSS-is prognoziorebi 65%-ian datvirTvas unda elodnen, rac bolo 20 wlis manZilze rekordulia. brZolaSi aviakompaniebic unda CaerTon. tradiciuli kompaniebi sabiujeto aviakompaniebis mzard konkurencias awydebian didi manZilebis gadafrenebis bazarze. Norwegian Air, romelic evropidan aSS-Si dafrinavs, 2015 wels rva Boeing 787 Dreamliner-is Sesyidvas gegmavs. germanuli Lufthansa iafi gadamzidavis gaSvebas 2015 wels gegmavs aziis bazarze NorwegianTan saTanamSromlod. malaiziis AirAsia X 2015 wels kontinentur aziasa da avstralias Soris frenebs daamatebs. Tvali adevneT: kosmosuri turizmi. aq sabiujeto arCevani ar aris. Virgin Galactic-is suborbitalur rvaadgilian xomaldze erTi adgili 250 000 dolari dajdeba (javSanis safasuri SeiZleba ukan daibrunoT). 2014 wlis bolos, aSS-Si moqmedi XCOR gegmavs gamoscados misi oradgiliani Lynx aparati, romelic 18 Tvemde imuSavebs. qalaqebs Soris zeswrafi regularuli frenebi kompaniebisTvis kvlavac ocnebis mijnasTan rCeba: warmoidgineT gadafrena londonidan niu-iorkSi 90 wuTSi...

2015 weli fokusSi maSin, roca politikosebi klimatis cvlilebis garigebasTan dakavSirebiT imtvreven Tavs, kacobrioba komfortulad iyenebs sufTa teqnologiebs. energiis moxmarebis safasuris dazogva didi stimulia. mwvane obligaciebis beneficiarTa Soris, qarisa da mzis energiis danadgarebicaa, romelTa jamuri Rirebuleba 2012 wlis 3 miliardidan, 2015 wels 100 miliardamde gaizrdeba. mogebas calkeuli saxelmwifoebic iReben. 2015 wels samxreT korea naxSirbadis kreditebis gayidvas daiwyebs. kalifornia gaafarToebs mis teritoriaze moqmed Sesabamis sqemas. naxSirbadis udidesi emitenti – CineTi, 2011-2015 wlebSi energoefeqtianobis 16%-iT gazrdas gegmavs. globalurad, eleqtroenergiis gamomuSaveba ganaxlebadi wyaroebidan (hidroeleqtrosadgurebis garda) 9%iT gaizrdeba. energiis moxmarebis zrdis kvalobaze, `jiutad~ moimatebs sawvavis moxmarebis Sedegad CO2-is gamonabolqvic.

favoritis reklama

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msoflio 2015

biznesi amave seqciaSi: Xiaomi globaluri xdeba 102 Sromis fasi gaizrdeba 103 mxolod SesaZlebelia… 103 virtualuri realoba realoba xdeba 104 pit flinti: teqnologia da

qoneba 106 `cxridan xuTamde~-s dabruneba 107 wyalbadze momuSave manqanebi temps umateben 108 nabeWdi wignebi pozicias ar Tmoben 108

holivudi „qamrebs iWers“ 109 saukeTeso adgili biznesis sakeTeblad 109 meri bara: droa manqanebma isaubron 110

roca Wkviani moCvenebad iqceva tom stendiji

telefonebi telepaTebi xdebian

roeqtis menejeri robini Sexvedraze agvianebda. man xelSi aiRo telefoni, romelic Sexvedris sxva damswreebisaTvis el.fostis meSveobiT Setyobinebas ugzavnida imis Sesaxeb, rom gzaSi iyo. es yvelaferi xelis erTi gasmiT moxerxda. SvebulebaSi sazRvargareT yofnisas telefonma jons adgilobrivi valutis kursi auwya da axlomdebare turistuli RirsSesaniSnaobisken miuTiTa. erTxel ucxo qalaqSi manqanaSi Casajdomad mivemarTebodi da telefonma gaufrTxileblad macnoba daniSnulebis adgilamde mgzavrobaSi dasaxarji da moZraobis arsebul pirobebSi gadaadgilebis dro. es realuri magaliTebia im teqnologiisa, romelic `winmswrebi gamoTvliT~ an „saprognozo gonierebiTaa~ cnobili, da personalur monacemebs smartfonSi drouli SeTavazebebis saxiT amuSavebs. amis yvelaze kargad cnobili magaliTi 2012 wels Seqmnili Google Now-a. dadeqiT avtobusebis gaCerebasTan da igi moZraobis ganrigs gaufrTxileblad mogawvdiT. Tqveni el.fostidan pirdapir miiRebT informacias rodis unda elodoT amanaTs. Tqveni Zebnis istoriidan igi swavlobs, Tu romel gunds gulSematkivrobT da misi TamaSis bolo angariSs gacnobT. programis erT-erTi Tanaavtoris – baris gilTeqinis TqmiT, am instrumentis idea `teqnologiiT myisieri sargeblobaa~, rac specifikuri informaciis moTxovnasTan dakavSirebuli drois dazogviT

xdeba. informacia maSin Cndeba, roca is gWirdebaT. Apple-sa da Microsoft-s am teqnologiis TavianTi versiebi aqvT, romlis dauflebasac mcire firmebis didi jgufic lamobs. `Tqven gsurT Tqvenma gamomTvlelma xelsawyoebma yuradReba miaqcion imas, Tu ras akeTebT da amgvarad TqvenTvis saWiro informaciis mowodebaSi ukeT garja SeeZlebaT~, – acxadebs startap Expect Labs-is aRmasrulebeli oficeri tim tatli. roca is kargad muSaobs, iqmneba STabeWdileba, rom Tqveni telefoni Tqvens azrebs kiTxulobs. zogierTebs es aRizianebs. dapirispireba sargebelsa da gaRizianebas Soris 2015 welsac gaizrdeba, vinaidan winmswrebi gamoTvliTi teqnologiebi sami mTavari mimarTulebiT ganviTardeba: upirvelesad, isini monacemTa ufro meti wyaroTi isargebleben, vidre axlandeli Ziebis istoria, el.fosta, kalendari da adgilmdebareobaa. batoni gilTeqini acxadebs, rom amiT SesaZlebeli gaxdeba serfingiT garTobis pirobebis naxva Tqvens sayvarel sanapiroze an Tqveni qaliSvilisTvis sazafxulo banakSi Caweras SegaxsenebT. `Wkviani saaTebi da fitnessamajurebi, aseve Wkviani saSinao mowyobilobebi, magaliTad, Termostati, informaciis nazavs monacemebiT kidev ufro gaamdidreben~, – acxadebs maikl iamnicki, sakonsultacio firma Forrester-is warmomadgeneli. Expect Labs xmovan informacias winmswrebi gamoTvlisTvis iyenebs, dasrulebuli saubridan informaciis gamoTxovnis gziT. magaliTad, amgvarad is qolcentrebSi im relevantur dokumentacias iRebs, romelic momxmareblis momsaxurebas an teqnikur mxardaWeras uzrunvelyofs.

2015 mokled irlandia Tavisi ybadaRebuli `ormagi irlandiuri~ korporaciuli gadasaxadis `xvrelis Sevsebas~ iwyebs, rac upirvelesad im kompaniebisTvis keTdeba, vinc aq bizness gaxsnis

tom stendiji: cifruli teqnologiebis redaqtori, The Economist

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msoflio 2015

biznesi

mec

jeims Cembersi, hong-kongi

yuradRebis centrSi moqceuli Cinuri superbrendi globaluri xdeba

raSic Mi-s saxelad rebrendingic moiazreba (warmoiTqmis, rogorc `me~). es imitom xdeba, rom Cinuris armcodneT `c~-s sworad gamoTqma uWirT. amasTan, xiao Cinurad `pataras~ niSnavs, rac axla ukve realobas ar Seesabameba. kompania aSS-Si operaciebis gaxsnas 2015 wels gegmavda, Tumca raime mkafio valdebulebas Tavi aarida. mis onlaingayidvaTa da marketingis models ganviTarebad qveynebSi garkveuli eWvebi axlavs, Tumca gadawyvetileba garkveulwilad kontrols aRar eqvemdebareba. kompaniis produqtebis irgvliv xmauri imdenad didia, rom mas ucnobi enTuziastebis mier avstraliaSi damoukideblad gaxsnili onlainmaRaziis daxurva mouwia. mesame mxaris gamyidvelebi mis uaxles smartfon Mi4-s evropis xuT udides ekonomikaSi mdebare Amazon-is filialebis meSveobiT yidian, riTac ganviTarebul samyaroSi swored

onkongSi investorTa Sekrebis mimdinareobisas SanxaiSi mdebare startapi Tavis teqnologias Apple-is maRaziis gayidvis terminalebs adarebs, romlebic gayidvebs salaro aparatTan msxdomi asistentebisgan aTavisuflebs. Tumca, Tavisi zrdis amocanebis dasaxvisaTvis, sxva samizne gamoiyeneba: `Cven gvsurs sacalo vaWrobis programuli uzrunvelyofis Xiaomi gavxdeT~, – acxadebs TanadamfuZnebeli. ambicia didia. pekinSi mdebare Xiaomi 2015 wels 100 milioni smartfonis gayidvas gegmavs, pirveli modelis gaSvebidan oTxi wlis Tavze, da Apple-s mTeli erTi wliT uswrebs. am or teqnologiur kompanias ufro xSirad Seadareben erTmaneTs, vinaidan Xiaomi saerTaSoriso bazrebze gadis. produqtebs is ukve yidis samxreT-aRmosavleT aziasa da indoeTSi. Semdegi daniSnulebis adgili firmis saerTaSoriso operaciebis meTauris, 2013 wels Google-idan `motacebuli~ ugo baras samSoblo – braziliaa. kompania Sesvlas amerikis `yurisZirSi~ – meqsikaSic gegmavs. batoni bara Xiaomi-s dasavluri debiutisaTvis amzadebs, SexvdiT stiv jobss... ukacravad, lei iuns s

2015 mokled Microsoft Tavis Windows 10 saoperacio sistemaSi monatrebul startis menius daabrunebs, romelic Windows 8 versiaSi gaqra

es ganviTarebis meore sferoze mianiSnebs, radgan winmswrebi gamoTvlis teqnologia swored ise vrceldeba, rogorc manamdeli teqnologiebi samuSao adgilas. `es teqnologia yvelgan iqneba~, – acxadebs batoni tatli. iolia imis danaxva, Tu rogor moxdeba misi gamoyeneba samedicino da iuridiul sferoebSi, an zogadad, biznesSi TqvenTvis myisierad saWiro dokumentebis Sinaarsis xazgasmiT. reklamis Semqmnelebi mzad arian TavianT mobilur aplikaciebs winmswrebi elementebic daamaton (vgoneb, axla es yavaze mkiTxaobiT Tu SegiZliaT). venCuruli kapitalis firma Andreessen Horowitz-is analitikosi benediqt evansi mianiSnebs, rom es SesaZloa personaluri finansebisa da jandacvis sferoebSic gamoviyenoT.

gaRizianebis kalibracia mesame, winmswrebi gamoTvlebi smartfonisa da sxva mowyobilobebis farglebs uTuod gascdeba. `Androidis saaTebi ukve eTanawyobian Google-s~, – acxadebs batoni gilTeqini da amJamad instrumentebis panelis saxiT Google-is saavtomobilo programis Android Auto-s nawilad gvevlinebian. es programa manqanebs aplikaciebis CamotvirTvis saSualebas aZlevs – swored ise, rogorc amas telefonebi ukve akeTeben. Wkviani televizia da Wkviani saojaxo teqnologia gamoyenebis damatebiTi sferoebia. igi ukve xelmi-

iseT `rux bazars~ qmnian, rac iPhone-s CineTSi oficialur Sesvlamde hqonda. britaneTSi telefonis araoficialuri fasi Cinur fass TiTqmis orjer aWarbebs da 350 funts (560 aSS dolars) utoldeba. Xiaomi `sakmarisad kargi~ telefonebis gayidvaTa zrdis talRis qimzea, Tanac gonivruli fasiT. misi inovacia Apple-isgan ar mouparavT, xolo brendingi misaRebia axalgazrda, teqnologiaze Cacikluli momxmareblisaTvis, romelic adre Apple-is kults eTayvaneboda. miuxedavad amisa, kompania bazarze produqtis pirvelad ganmTavseblis upiratesobiT didi xniT mainc ver isargeblebs. SenzenSi 2013 wels dafuZnebulma OnePlus-ma Xiaomi-s msgavsi eiforiis Sesaqmnelad 2014 wels smartfonebis gayidva mxolod SerCeul klientebze daiwyo. Xiaomi-s Ria tipis saaqcio sazogadoebad gadaqcevaze laparaki 2015 wels gaxSirdeba, miuxedavad imisa, rom firmis bosi lei iuni amas kategoriulad uaryofs. Xiaomi-m ukve daigula amerikul dolarSi denominirebuli krediti, rac pirvelad sajaro SeTavazebaze kompaniis gatanis mosamzadebeli nabijia da ucxoel investorebs kompanias ufro axlos acnobs. amasTan, Apple Ria tipis kompaniad 1980 wels, pirveli produqtis gaSvebidan oTxi wlis Tavze iqca. cxadia, didi xani ar gaivlis manamde, sanam sakulto Mi-s SeZenis Sanss yvela moipovebs. n jeims Cambersi: ufrosi redaqtori, Economist Intelligence Unit

sawvdomia personalur kompiuterebSi, im daSvebiT, rom Tqven Google-is Chrome saZiebo sistemas iyenebT da sistemaSi Sesuli xarT. ukeTesi winmswrebi gamoTvla ufro metad fantasmagoriuli xdeba, miuxedavad imisa, rom xalxi mas albaT mainc SeeCveva. el.fostis misamarTebis avtomaturi Sevseba da Zebnis parametrebi, erT dros aseve fantastikad miiCneoda. axla mravali momxmarebeli gamaRizianeblad aRiqvams im faqts, rom sul ramdenime asos akrefis Semdeg Sesabamisi SemoTavazeba ekranze ar Cans. Tu Tqveni telefonis SemoTavazebebi imaze Wkvianuria, vidre isurvebdiT, misi gamoTiSva advilad SegiZliaT, Tanac maSin, roca gindaT da damatebiTi informaciis gareSe. `kompaniebi momxmareblebs saSualebas miscemen gadawyviton, Tu ra gaucvalon uaxloes adamianebs cifruli gaRizianebis zRvris gadakveTis gareSe~, – acxadebs batoni iamnicki. magaliTad, SesaZloa gsurdeT gamoricxoT Tqveni saZiebo istoriisa da Tqveni Svilebis personalur monacemebTan SeRwevis SesaZlebloba. `problema isaa, rom Tqven albaT meore klasis moqalaqe gaxdebiT, Tu is instrumentebi ar gaqvT, romlebsac sxvebi ukve floben~, – ambobs batoni tatli. Wkviani winmswrebi gamoTvlis sistema gaRizianebis TqvenTvis misaRebi donis kalibraciaa, riTac SesaZlebloba geqnebaT gansazRvroT, Tu ramdenad saWiroa esa Tu is SeTavazeba, da gaCumdeT. n

msoflio 2015

ukugebis dro patrik fulisi, niu-iorki

transerovnuli kompaniebi gazrdil SromiT danaxarjebs gadaawydebian

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biznesi brunvaze swrafad gaizarda. es procesi ufro intensiuri gaxdeba sami mizezis gamo: pirveli, dasavluri ekonomikebis neli aRmasvlis kvalobaze, Sromis bazari ufro xisti gaxdeba. federaluri sarezervo sistema miiCnevs, rom umuSevroba 2016 wels bolos da bolos normalur dones daubrundeba. `inglisis banki~ 2015 wels xelfasebis swraf zrdas varaudobs, xolo `evropis centraluri banki~ maT SedarebiT nel zrdas 2016 wels moelis. meore, uTanasworobasTan dakavSirebuli politikuri SeSfoTeba firmebs ufro maRali xelfasebis gadaxdas aiZulebs. baraq obamas gacilebiT maRali minimaluri xelfasi surs – iseve, rogorc britaneTis leiboristuli partiis liders – ed milibends. aSS-Si maregulirebeli organo – SromiTi urTierTobebis erovnuli sabWo, kontraqtiT daqiravebuli muSakebisaTvis wesebis gamkacrebas gegmavs. arada, aseTi tipis dasaqmebulebi Federal Express-isa da McDonald’sis msgavsi kompaniebis xerxemalia. kerZo seqtoris dasaqmebulTa mxolod mcire nawili rCeba profkavSirebis wevrad, Tumca is, vinc profkavSiris wevria, Tavs daimedebulad igrZnobs – gansakurebiT maSin, Tuki warmoebis damabrkolebeli elementebis nawilze kontrols SeinarCunebs. 2014 wels los-anjelesis portis, kanadis maRaroebisa da TviT niu-iorkis ope-

2015 mokled ganSoreba: Hewlett-Packard kompiuterul da printerebis warmoebis bizness korporaciul da kompiuteruli aRWurvilobis bizness CamoaSorebs; eBay PayPal-is, rogorc sxva kompaniis, marTvas iwyebs

015 wels msxvili transerovnuli kompaniebis aRmasrulebeli direqtorebi ara sakuTari, aramed dasaqmebuli personalis xelfasebze iRelveben. aRmavali SromiTi danaxarjebi Seamcirebs mogebis marJebs, romlebic axla pikur doneze imyofebian. bosebma unda gadawyviton, SeewinaaRmdegon Tu Seeguon am tendencias. sabolood, bevri maTgani dasaqmebulebs anazRaurebas moumatebs. erTi SexedviT, es ararealisturi Cans. 1990-iani wlebidan moyolebuli, dasavluri firmebi efeqtianobis amaRlebis mizniT xelfasebis zrdis SezRudvas axerxebdnen. aqamde aSS-is arasafinanso firmebis mier Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis 58% xelfasebs xmardeboda, rac 1929 wlidan maqsimalurad dabali maCvenebeli iyo. warmoebam zRvis gadaRma gadainacvla. aSS-is transerovnul kompaniebs axla personalis mesamedi ucxoeTSi hyavT dasaqmebuli. gayidvebis yovel dolarze isini amerikel kolegebze 40%-iT naklebs iReben. evropuli TviTkmayofilebis mizezi ar arsebobs firmebi kidev ufro internacio- aSS ixdis dRg-is % * nalurni arian. 68 did firmebSi kapitalisa da Sromis Widili rutinad iqca. SedarebiT mcire anazRaurebam 66 safondo birJebs yvela drois maqsimumamde aRmasvlis saSu64 aleba misca. maSin, roca 1970-ian wlebSi bosebi gaficvebiTa da sax62 elfaso molaparakebebiT iyvnen Sewuxebulni, maTi kolegebi amJamad SromiT danaxarjebs firmebi60 sa da birJebisaTvis iSviaTad ganixilaven problemad. msoflios 58 erT-erTi udidesi damsaqmeblis, Walmart-is mier maregulireblebisaTvis yovelwliurad wardgenili angariSebi aRmas1929 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09 2014† ruleblebis kompensaciasTan da*arasafinanso biznesi: me-2 kvartali, 2014 wyaro: ekonomikuri analizis biuro kavSirebul 31-gverdian detalur ris TanamSromlebic ki gaificnen. informacias Seicavs, Tumca arsadaa naxsenebi ramdedabolos, SromiTi xarjebi ganviTarebad sania 2.2 milioniani personalis anazRaureba. myaroSic izrdeba. es mniSvnelovania, radgan dReifirmebis mier ignorirebis miuxedavad, anazRausaTvis tipuri transerovnuli kompaniis operaciaTa reba kvlavac strategiul sakiTxad rCeba. saxelfa20-30% ganviTarebad qveynebSi warmoebs, rac 1990so xarjebis 10%-iani zrda tipuri transerovnuli iani wlebis maCvenebels orjer aRemateba. CineTis kompaniis mogebas 8%-iT Seamcirebda. mravali didi axlandeli xuTwliani gegmis mixedviT, oficialuri globaluri firmis, magaliTad Samsung-is, Unileverminimaluri xelfasi wliurad 13%-iT gaizrdeba. es is, Siemens-is, Nestlé-sa da BMW-s saxelfaso xarjebi nawilobriv imiTaa gamowveuli, rom `msoflios saxelosnos~ – CineTis warmoeba nel-nela sazRvao zolidan qveynis SigniT inacvlebs. ganviTarebad qveynebSi mxolod SesaZlebelia… samuSao pirobebis gasaumjobeseblad politikuri wnexi kidev ufro gazarda 2013 wels bangladeSSi qasmartfonebis bazris 1%-ze naklebi, da klebadi Serxnis afeTqebam, romelmac 1000 adamiani Seiwira. mosavlebiT, BlackBerry veRar moaxerxebs damoukideaziel muSakebze damokidebuli dasavluri firmebi blobis SenarCunebas da myidvels moZebnis. ukve grZnoben zemoqmedebas. msoflios meore udidesi moduri tansacmlis qseli Hennes & Mauritz 2014 Google-is dominacia saZiebo sistemebSi konkurenwels acxadebda, rom misi mogebis marJebi Semcirdeba, tebis mier bazris wilebis mopovebis kvalobaze Semvinaidan fasebis xelfasebis msgavsad gazrda ver xecirdeba. rxdeba. IndiGo – indoeTis umsxvilesi aviaxazebi `frTebs patrik fulisi: msoflios daqiravebulo muSakebo, SeerTdiT! gaSlis~ axali TviTmfrinavis meSveobiT, rac grZeli niu-iorkis biuros maRali SromiTi danaxarjebis pirobebSi bizness ori reisebis bazarze gasvlaSi daexmareba. xelmZRvaneli The Economist arCevani eqneba: didi samrewvelo operaciebis mqoneni

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naxe da irwmune martin jilesi, san-francisko

virtualuri realoba namdvil bizness miuaxlovdeba

emis triumSi moulodnelad rvafexas giganturi sacecebi Cndeba, miamit mgzavrs fexebze exveva da kibeze, qveviT miaTrevs. mogvianebiT, Tqveni Tanamgzavri gulisgamyinav yvirils uSvebs, rogorc ki igi urCxulis gigantur brWyalebSi moeqceva. panikaSi, saTadarigo gasasvlelis ZiebaSi, kedlebs awydebiT, magram sad waxvalT?.. albaT, arc ise Sors, vinaidan es scena realur gemze ki ara, aramed silikonis velis gulSi mdebare startapis, Jaunt VR-is cicqna oTaxSi xdeba. `sacecebiani saSineleba~ da misi `msxverpli~ adamiani kompaniis mier Seqmnili moklemetraJiani cifruli Sous nawilia, romelsac virtualuri realobis hedsetiT ucqerT. virtualuri realoba, romelic cifruli xmisa da gamosaxulebis kombinaciaa, dasamaxsovrebel gamocdilebas qmnis, magram masobrivi bazrisaTvis jer mzad araa. 2015 wlis bolos, am teqnologiaze momuSave firmebi dabrkolebebs gadalaxaven. erTi maTgani sunTqvisSemkvreli cifruli gamocdilebis xarisxia. miuxedavad imisa, rom virtualuri realobis xarisxi usasrulod gaumjobesda, gamosaxuleba xSirad gadRabnili da piqselebiT gajerebulia. mzeris instinqturad, Tundac mikroskopulad xanmokle droiT sxvagan mimarTva, scenas wamierad gaaqrobs. aseTma xarvezebma samzeri saTvaliT aRWurvil mayurebels SesaZloa guneba gaufuWos, Tundac mcire droiT. am problemebs 2015 wels gadaWrian. ukeTesi optika da ufro Wkviani programuli uzrunvelyofa gacilebiT mkafio da realistur virtualur gamosaxulebas Seqmnis. Tavis moZraobis damafiqsirebeli ukeTesi sistemebi da Sesabamisad, gamosaxulebis myisieri koreqtirebis meqanizmebi dezorientaciis

problemasTan gamklavebas SeZleben. virtualuri realobis gamocdilebis gasaumjobeseblad, hedsetebic unda gaumjobesdes. es ganviTarebis gzaze arsebul erT-erT dabrkolebas moxsnis. mxolod ramdenime wlis win saukeTeso virtualuri realobis aparatura aTasobiT dolari Rirda. momdevno TveebSi, iseTi kompaniebi, rogorebic Oculus VR (romelic Oculus Rift hedsets amzadebs da romelic 2014 wlis martSi Facebook-ma iyida) da Sony-ia, bazarze mxolod ramdenime aseuli dolaris Rirebulebis maRali xarisxis aparaturas gamoitanen. axali hedsetebi ufro metad saTxilamuro saTvaleebs daemsgavseba, rac uzarmazari gaumjobesebaa dRevandel mouxeSav prototipebTan SedarebiT, romlebic maT matareblebs samecniero fantastikis filmebis personaJebs amsgavsebs. ufro Wkviani saTvaleebis sargebeli cotaa, Tu saTanado sacqeri masala ar arsebobs. ase rom, iseTi kompaniebi, rogorebic Oculus da virtualuri realobis mwarmoebeli kidev erTi GameFace Labs-ia, imgvari programuli uzrunvelyofis warmoebas iwyeben, romlebic developerebs hedsetebSi kontentis Seqmnis saSualebas miscemen. 2015 wels developerebis umetesi Zalisxmeva TamaSebis Seqmnas daeTmoba. es is sferoa, sadac virtualur realobas ganviTarebis udidesi potenciali aqvs. kinomwarmoeblebi eqsperimentebSi Caebmebian iseTi firmebis meSveobiT, rogoric, mag- marTla?

warmoebis kidev ufro iaf qveynebSi gadatanas Seecdebian, magram iseTi qveynebis povna, sadac dabali xelfasebi, morCili muSaxeli da politikuri stabilurobaa, imaze rTulia, vidre Cans. mrewvelobis axal `meqas~ – vietnams 2011-2012 wlebSi gaficvebis talRam gadauara. indoeTs namdvilad surs damatebiTi ucxouri qarxnebis mozidva, Tumca igi tlanqi regulaciebiTa da korufciiTac aris cnobili. kenia, sadac calkeuli kompaniebi niadags sinjaven, terorizmis msxverpli gaxda. gacilebiT naklebad, mobiluri samuSao Zalis damsaqmebeli firmebi produqtiulobis zrdas bolo wlebSi stagnaciaSi myof ganviTarebul qveynebSi Seecdebian. isini warmoebis avtomatizaciasa da meti robotebis gamoyenebas lamoben. evropuli sainJinro giganti ABB, romelmac ukve gayida meoTxedi milioni samrewvelo roboti, moTxovnisSemdgom masobriv

aliTad, Jaunt-ia, romlis bosi iens kristianseni virtualuri koncertebisa da sportuli RonisZiebebis Seqmnis SesaZleblobasac xedavs. aseTi progresis miuxedavad, virtualuri realobisTvis komerciuli warmatebis mosapoveblad kidev ramdenime welia saWiro. Oculus-is aRmasrulebeli direqtoris – brendan iribes mixedviT, amocana isaa, rom momxmareblebs sadRac sxvagan teleportaciis SegrZneba Seuqmnan, maSin, roca isini aq imyofebian. es rom moxdes, adamianebs garemosTan uwyveti interaqciis saSualeba unda hqondeT. `didi gamowveva swori interfeisis Seqmnaa, rac adamianebs virtualur samyaroSi moqmedebis saSualebas miscems~, – acxadebs `virjinia teqis~ profesori dag boumeni. Semdegi amocana virtualuri realobis socialur gamocdilebad gadaqcevaa, romelSic adamianebi megobrebisa da ojaxis wevrebis xilvas, maTTan laparaks, da SesaZloa maTTan TanamSromlobasac SeZleben imisaTvis, raTa `talRebis siRrmidan SemoRweuli monstri moaSTon~. n martin gilesi: aSS-is teqnologiis redaqtori, The Economist

bums winaswarmetyvelebs. Google da Amazon dagzavnisaTvis upiloto safreni aparatebis gamoyenebas cdian, TumcaRa am teqnologiebis umetesoba sawyis etapzea. zogierTi firma gazrdis xarjebs treningsa da momuSave personalis unar-Cvevebis ganviTarebaze, aseve axlebis mozidvaze, magram amas mdgomareobaze gavlenis mosaxdenad dro dasWirdeba. meti yuradReba personalis dinebis Semcirebasac daeTmoba. am mcdelobis miuxedavad, mravali bosi arCevans iqneba moklebuli da iZulebuli gaxdeba personals firmis saerTo `namcxvris~ ufro didi `naWeri~ uwilados. es uTanasworobis arsebiT Semcirebas sulac ar niSnavs, magram marJebis Sesamcireblad da investorTa dasafrTxobad sakmarisi gaxdeba. ufro didi saxelfaso uwyisebis xelmomweri bosebi erTgvar sargebelsac naxaven. aTwleulSi pirvelad, 2015 wels, yuradRebas sxva xalxis xelfasi miipyrobs. n

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`cxridan xuTamde~-s dabruneba lusi kelavei

mSvidobiT, grZeli saaTebis kulturav

015 wels aRmasrulebeli oficrisTvis moduri iqneba imis Tqma, rom igi `saqmem waleka~. 20-wliani trabaxis Semdeg, imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra dakavebulni arian isini, biznesis xelmZRvanelebi STabeWdilebis mosaxdenad axal xerxebs moifiqreben. aRmasrulebel direqtorTa mZime samuSao ganrigi, romelic gamTeniisas, dilis oTx saaTze, trenaJorze varjiSis dros eleqtronuli werilebis gagzavniT iwyeba, momavalSi arcTu mimzidvelad, araefeqtianad da TiTqmis sigiJed gamoCndeba. momaval wels TiTqmis yvela Seecdeba grZeli samuSao saaTebis kulturis xelaxal gaazrebas. cvlilebas ara mxolod aTaswleulis dasawyisis zarmaci axalgazrdebi daamkvidreben, romlebic ver itanen mZime Sromas, aramed ufro asakiani muSakebic, romlebsac teqnologiis `tirania~ yelSi amouvidaT. 2014 wels SorsmWvreteli kompaniebis mcire ricxvma brZola wamoiwyo. Google-ma dublinSi TanamSromlebs ofisebis datovebisas mowyobilobebi CamoarTva, xolo Daimler-ma personalis eleqtronul fostaSi SvebulebaSi yofnis dros Semosuli gzavnilebi waSala. 2015 wels amas sxva kompaniebic SeuerTdebian, Seqmnian ra teqnologiebis ufro martivi kontrolis sqemebs da ara piriqiT. Cveni cxovrebisa da muSaobis wesis cvlileba uzarmazari iqneba. Svebuleba Svebulebad darCeba. ofisSi aryofisas miRebul eleqtronul werilebze samTo-saTxilamuro kurortidan pasuxis gacema saWiro aRar iqneba. ofisis skamze morigi pijakis gadakidebac ar iqneba saWiro. gonivrul dros samuSaos damTavreba imis niSani iqneba, rom Tqven efeqtiani da arazarmaci muSaki xarT. teqnologiaze damokidebulebma SesaZloa mainc Seamowmon el.fosta diliT, loginidan adgomamde, magram saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi swored ise icrueben, rogorc alkoholis yovelkvireuli moxmarebis Sefasebisas. kompaniebSi parkinsonis kanoni srulyofilad imuSavebs da samuSao droulad Sesruldeba. saofise produqtiuloba, romelic teqnologiis gaumjobesebis miuxedavad, jiutad tkepnida erT adgils, mkveTrad gaizrdeba. naklebi meti gaxdeba. wlebis ganmavlobaSi kompaniebi imas iCemebdnen, rom `simartive maTi mTavari Rirebuleba~ iyo, magram 2015 wels ise imoqmedeben, TiTqos amas

samuSaos axali stili aSS-sa da britaneTs Soris xelaxal dabalansebas Seuwyobs xels. es ukanaskneli, romelic zomierebis samSoblod miiCneva, sakuTar Tavs bunebrivi upiratesobebis gamoyenebaSi aRmoaCens, maSin roca aSS-s, sadac dilis eqvs saaTze, sauzmeze saqmiani Sexvedrebi gamoigones, axal reJimTan morgeba gauWirdeba. `cxridan xuTamde~-s dabruneba ojaxebisTvis SesaniSnavi axali ambavia. mSoblebs erTmaneTisa da Svilebis xelaxali `gacnoba~ SeeZlebaT. amave dros, maT grilze Tevzis Sesawvavad da Zilispiruli zRaprebis wasakiTxadac darCebaT dro. ufro mcire raodenobis adamianebs mouwevT samuSaosTvis Tavis ganebeba ojaxTan meti drois gasatareblad, vinaidan amas ukve akeTeben. amiT gansakuTrebiT qalebi isargebleben. maTi mxolod nawili datovebs samuSaos, an arasrul ganakveTze gadava, vinaidan ojaxis movlisa da samsaxuris SeTavseba gaadvildeba, ris Sedegadac met qals eqneba karieruli winsvla.

marTlac gulisxmoben. sul ufro naklebi umizno iniciativa SemuSavdeba da uazro Sexvedra Sedgeba. Memo-ebi ufro Semokldeba. gaweuli samuSaoebis mimoxilva naklebad tlanqi iqneba. xSirad sami `bulet pointi~ sakmarisi gaxdeba. SedarebiT dabali xarisxis kompaniebi ver moaxerxeben mcirediT metis miRwevas. maT ise kargad ver marTaven, cxovreba rom gamartivdes da amgvarad, isini ufro met xalxs daiqiraveben, rasac Sedegad meti biurokratia da araefeqtianoba mohyveba. kompaniebisa da personalis gzebi gaiyreba. Wkviani mcire gaxdeba, gaurkvevloba ki â&#x20AC;&#x201C; gacilebiT meti. eqstremaluri amocana, romelic eqstremaluri muSaobis kvaldakval daisaxa, sul ufro metad aramodurad gadaiqceva. naxevarmaraToni ukve ufro metad popularulia, vidre sruli, magram 2015 wels saxaliso garbeni axal popularobas SeiZens, da parkSi seirno- axali `Zua~ bosebis `mSvildisTvis~ bac nebismierisaTvis amayad xelmisawv- maCos stilSi muSaobis dasasruli domi gaxdeba. uciloblad ar niSnavs maCo liderebis dasasrulsac. bosebi maCoebad darCebian, Tumca sxvanairad, da Zalauflebas ufro metad qarizmiT da ara gamZleobiT ganimtkiceben. es imas niSnavs, rom korporaciul sxdomaTa darbazebSi ufro saintereso dro dadgeba, vinaidan uRimRamo liderebi ukana planze gadainacvleben da scenas, Tumca mokrZalbulad, magram mainc gamokveTili individebi daubrundebian. riTiRa itrabaxeben aRmasruleblebi, roca datvirTul grafikze laparaki aRar SeeZlebaT?individebis A tipi (maTi umravlesoba aseTi tipis darCeba) samuSaos garda sxva saqmianobiTac dakavdeba, xolo nawili imiT daiwyebs trabaxs, Tu rogor treningSi monawileobs, raTa violinos virtuoz Semsruleblad iqces. zogierTi agresiuli moxalise gaxdeba da msoflios SecvlaSi, mezobelze warmatebulad gaxdomas moisurvebs. samuSaosTvis naklebi drois daTmoba aRmasruleblebisaTvis xalxTan Sesaxvedrad met dros niSnavs, rac samwuxarod, SurisZiebis saxiT saxelebis cvlis dabrunebacaa. trabaxi imaze, Tu vis Sexvdi metSi/glastonberiSi/uimbldonze, imdenad popularuli iqneba, rogorc arasodes. saukeTeso satrabaxo Tema im aRmasruleblebisaTvis, romlebic ufro xanmokle samuSao dRis realiebs Seewyo, aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi gaugonari fraza iqneba: `guSin ZaRliviT meZina~. n lusi kelavei: mesvete, Financial Times

fexi aqseleratorze saimon raiti

wyalbadze momuSave manqanebi gzas daadgebian

nergetikis seqtorSi momuSave zogierTi xumara yovelTvis aRniSnavs: `kandidatebi mravladaa momavlis sawvavis sapatio wodebis mosapoveblad... da isini momavalSic mudmivad iarsebeben~. marTalia, biosawvavi da birTvuli sinTezi am titulisTvis kvlavac ibrZoleben, Tumca 2015 wels wyalbadi aseTi sawvavi namdvilad gaxdeba. avtomwarmoeblebma wyalbadis energiis `mosaTokad~ yvela sxva mewarmeze meti fuli da energia daxarjes da gamalebiT cdiloben msoflioSi gamonabolqvis emisiis gamkacrebul standartebTan Sesabamisobis miRwevas. industria kidev ufro metad gairjeba, ris magaliTadac isic gamodgeba, rom Toyota-m da Hondam masobrivi gayidvebisTvis gankuTvnili modelebi dilerTa garaJebSi ukve ganaTavses. iseTi farTod gavrcelebuli elementisgan, rogoric wyalbadia, energiis miRebis idea ukve TiTqmis ori saukunea arsebobs. teqnologia martivia: platinis Txeli SriT dafaruli wyalgamtari membranidan gatarebuli wyalbadis airi Jangbads ereva da ZravisaTvis eleqtrobas warmoqmnis, xolo wylis orTqli gamonabolqvis milidan gamoiyofa. General Motors-ma (GM) pirveli aseTi avtomobili 1966 wels Seqmna, Tumca wyalbadis gamoyenebis mimarTulebiT muSaoba SeaCera. Toyota-m da Honda-m iaponiaSi wyalbadis avtomobilebis ijariT gacema 12 wlis win daiwyes. mcirericxovani avtoparki germaniasa da aSS-Si kompaniebisa da samTavrobo dawesebulebebis gankargulebaSia. londonSi am sawvavze avtobusebi da Savi taqsebi muSaoben. GM-i havaiSi wyalbadze momuSave Chevrolet-s parks cdis, magram aqamde wyalbadis avtomobilebi mxolod SerCeul klientebs gadaecemodaT, isic ijaris gziT, rac ZviradRirebuli eqsperimentis nawilia. 2015 wels Toyota’s FCV da Honda’s FCX xelmisawvdomia yvelasTvis, vinc saTanado Tanxis gadasaxdelad mzadaa. wyalbadis manqanebis ricxvi gaizrdeba fasebis Semcirebis kvalobaze. Tavis droze, TiToeuli aseTi avtomobilis fasi milion dolars aRwevda, Tumca axla es fasi, 2007 wels, Honda FCX-is gamoSvebisas, 350 000 dolaramde daeca. es imis axsnaa, Tu ratom ver SearCies firmebma gamosacdelad mxolod orasiode avtomobili. mZRolebisTvis fasebi kvlavac uzomod maRalia. Toyota acxadebs, rom misi FCV bazarze 7 milion ienad (65 aTasi dolari) ganTavsdeba, rac Zalian Zviria aseT sawvavze momuSave manqanisTvis, romlis tradiciul sawvavze momuSave analogi samjer naklebi Rirs. Honda-s modelic albaT igive eRireba. Hyundai-s mcire zomis sportuli iX35 modelis wyalbadze momuSave versia gasayidad aseve 2015 wels gaxdeba xelmisawvdomi, magram SesaZloa ufro metic Rirdes. mas Semdeg, rac 2017 wels Nissan-i Daimler-Tan da Ford-Tan partniorobiT axal models gamouSvebs, fasebi kidev ufro swrafad Semcirdeba. sawvavi elementis gaumjobesebis kvalobaze, aseTi avtomobilebis gamoSvebis zrdis xelSemwyobi sxva faqtorebic gamoCndeba: Cveulebrivi, Sigawvis Zravis avtomobilebi ufro sufTa da efeqtianebi xdeba. batareebiT datenili eleqtroavtomobilebi, magaliTad, Nissan Leaf da Tesla Model S ufro swrafad gaiyideba –batareebis simZlavrisa da damteni infrastruqturis ganviTarebis kvaldakval.

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sawvav elementebs garkveuli upiratesoba aqvT: batareebze momuSave avtomobilebis datenvas saaTebi sWirdeba, maSin roca wyalbadis avzis Sevseba mxolod wuTebs moiTxovs. eleqtromobilebis umetesobis erTjeradi garbeni 100 mils ar aRemateba. Toyota-s informaciiT, wyalbadis savse avziT, wyalbadis elementis avtomobilebi 700 kilometrs (435 mils) gairbenen. airi kvlavac Zviria da benzinis fass TiTqmis orjer aRemateba, vinaidan wylidan misi eleqtrolizis meSveobiT miReba an bunebrivi gazidan amoReba did en-

ramdenad Soria uaxloes gasamarT sadguramde?

ergias moiTxovs. eleqtrolizi manqanebisTvis garemosdacviTi reputaciis misaRebadaa mniSvnelovani, vinaidan energiis mocema ganaxlebad wyaroebs, magaliTad, qarsa da mzesac SeuZliaT.

win kvlav grZeli gzaa gasavleli gasamarTi infrastruqturis nakleboba kidev erTi Semaferxebeli faqtoria, magram progresi aqac saxezea: kalifornia sawvavi elementebis avtomobilebis samizne xdeba, vinaidan axali regulaciebiT aq 2025 wlisaTvis yoveli mexuTe gayiduli avtomobili eleqtro, hibriduli an sawvav elementebze momuSave unda iyos. Svidma sxva Statma, koneqtikutisa da niuiorkis CaTvliT, msgavsi regulaciebi ukve SemoiRo. amJamad kaliforniaSi wyalbadis mxolod aTi gasamarTi sadguri muSaobs, magram Stati 28 axali sadguris asaSeneblad 46 milionis daxarjvas gegmavs. iaponiaSi aseTi sadgurebis ricxvi 2015 wels 100-s miaRwevs, samxreT koreaSi 43-s, xolo germaniaSi 2017 wels maTi ricxvi 100 iqneba. sawvavi elementebis avtomobilebi yvela avtomwarmoeblisTvis rodia damajerebeli. Volkswagen-is iaponiis filialis bosi miiCnevs, rom aseTi tipis manqanebi iaponiis garda poziciebs versad moipoveben, vinaidan msgavsi didi, TiToeul avtomobilze 3 milioni ienis, subsidia sxvagan arsad moqmedebs. amis gareSe ki warmoebisa da gasamarTi sadgurebis mSeneblobis valdebulebas aravin aiRebs. Tesla-s bosi – elon maski mokled acxadebs: `sawvavi elementebi sisulelea~. aseTi manqanebi myisier cvlilebas ver moitanen. Honda da Toyota 2015 wels cal-calke 100 avtomobilis warmoebas gegmaven, warmoebis aTeul aTas erTeulamde 2020-iani wlebisTvis gazrdis perspeqtiviT, magram sul mcire, sawvavi elementebis avtomobilebi ukve mzad arian momavlis avtomobilebis rbolaSi CasarTavad. n

2015 mokled eleqtromobilebis mwarmoebeli kompania Tesla, meore modelis – Model X-ad wodebuli mravalfunqciuri manqanis gayidvas iwyebs

saimon raiti: industriis redaqtori, The Economist

108

biznesi

2015 mokled

adapteri da leqsi

Netflix Weinstein Company-sTan miRweuli SeTanxmebis Semdeg, Tavis pirvel srulmetraJian films gamouSvebs

aleqsandra suiCi: mediis redaqtori, The Economist

msoflio 2015

aleqsandra suiCi, san-francisko

nabeWdi wignebi Zalauflebas myarad SeinarCuneben

ignebis gareSe samyaros warmodgena rTulia. samecniero fantastikis Janris mweralma rei bredberim 1953 wels gamocemul `farenheit 451~-Si iseTi momavali aRwera, sadac wignebi akrZalulia. ufro axlo warsulSi futuristebma teqnologiebis ganviTarebis gamo nabeWdi wignebis daRupva iwinaswarmetyveles. sxvaTa azriT, 2015 wels eleqtronuli wignebi kiTxvis umTavresi media unda gamxdariyo. isini cdebodnen – 2015 wels momxmareblebi wignebisadmi xangrZlivi siyvarulis erTgulni darCebian. 2007 wels, onlainsacalo movaWris – Amazonis mier eleqtronuli wignebis saSualebis Kindleis gamoSvebis Semdeg, am ukanasknelebma swrafad moipoves poziciebi. sabazro kvlevebis firma Nielsen-is informaciiT, 2013 wels maT aSS-Si gayiduli wignebis 20% da Semosavlebis 13% moicves. eleqtronuli wignebi yvelaze popularuli iqneba masobrivi bazrisTvis gankuTvnili rbilydiani wignebis kategoriebSi. magaliTad, romanebsa da TrilerebSi, TumcaRa nabeWdi wignebi 2015 wels da mogvianebiTac upirates poziciebs SeinarCuneben. rogorc Cans, portatuli, ubatareo wignebi mdgradi teqnologiaa. marTalia, eleqtronuli wignebi popularobiT sargebloben (gansakuTrebiT aqtiur mkiTxvelebSi da maT Soris, visac Sriftis gadideba uyvars), magram isini nabeWdi wignebis srulfasovan Semcvlelebad mainc ver gamodgebian. aSS-is mkiTxvelTa 4% Tu yidulobs mxolod eleqtronul wignebs.

ratom SeinarCuneben nabeWdi wignebi dominantur poziciebs 2015 wels da mogvianebiT? erTi mizezi istoriuli gakveTilia. kerZod – axali formatis wignebi yovelTvis arsebobda ufro adreuli formatis wignebTan erTad. siebs kodeqsis (akinZuli wigni) gamogonebidan didi xnis Semdeg iyenebdnen, xolo manuskriptebi sabeWdi dazgis gamogonebis Semdegac inarCunebdnen popularobas. amJamad, fizikuri formis wignebs sentimentaluri Rirebulebac gaaCniaT, rac DVD da CD-s ar aqvT. mkiTxvelebi amjobineben TavianTi Taroebi nabeWdi wignebiT daamSvenon da maTTan urTierTobac eadvilebaT. isini kvlavac popularulia sasaCuqred. sabavSvo wignebi eleqtronuli formatiT kargad ver iyideba da axali Taobac nabeWd wignebTan kontaqts inarCunebs. specialuri sakiTxavi mowyobilobebi konkurencias zogadi daniSnulebis tabletebTanac ver uZleben. `2015 wels, globalurad 9.7 milioni sakiTxavi mowyobiloba gaiyideba, rac 2011 wlis pikuri 20 milionis dramatuli Semcirebaa~, – acxadebs kvleviTi firma Forrester-i. yvelaze erTgul mkiTxvelTa mniSvnelovani nawili ukve eleqtronul kiTxvaze gadaerTo. miuxedavad nabeWdi wignebis gamZleobisa, eleqtronuli wignebi mkiTxvelebisa da gamomcemlebisaTvis bevrs Secvlian. maTma aRmasvlam ukve moitana ufro kreatiuli Txroba audio da videoSemavseblebis wyalobiTa da gacilebiT meti interaqciiT. aman axali Taobis damoukidebel mweral-gamomcemlebsac meti SesaZleblobebi Seuqmna, vinaidan naSromebis atvirTviT, teqstebis eleqtronuli da nabeWdi saxiT gayidva SeuZliaT. 2015 wels am avtorTa nawils didi warmateba elis – maT naSromebs gamomcemlebi Seisyidian da milionobiT tiraJiT gaasaReben – rogorc eleqtronulad, ise im Zveli formatiTac, romelsac mkiTxvelTa umetesoba kvlavac amjobinebs.n

Suqi, kamera, fraqcia! aleqsandra suiCi, niu-iorki

holivudis varskvlavebi „qamrebs iWeren“

Raurebis miReba filmis gayidvamdec ki SeeZlo. iseT studiebSi, rogorebic Sony da Warner Bros-ia, wnexi kidev ufro gaizrdeba. studiebis mepatroneebma aqtiuri aqcionerebisa da korporaciuli myidvelebis Semoteva 2014 wels moigeries. 2015 wels studiebi ufro nakleb filmebs Seqmnian, rac zRudavs Semosavlis potencials im msaxiobebisTvis, romelTac samuSaos moZebnaSi gaumarTlaT. supergmirebis filmebis aRmasvlam

rTxel merilin monros uTqvams, rom `holivudi is adgilia, sadac kocnisTvis aTas dolars gadagixdian, xolo sulisaTvis ormocdaaT cents~. 2015 wels imave ganwyobaze filmebis mravali varskvlavi iqneba. holivudSi `martivi fulis~ dro iseve `gadmopirqvavda~, rogorc frTxilad dalagebuli DVD-ebis rigi. Semosavlebis vardnas ramdenime tendencia ganapirobebs: mas Semdeg, rac momxmareblebma Sin sayureblad filmebis aslebis Sesyidva Sewyvites, ris sanacvlodac maT SedarebiT iafad CamotvirTvasa da moTxovnisTanave onlainSedarebiT yurebas mimarTes, holivudis studiebs mxolod xandaxan Tu SeuZliaT msaxiobTa gaberili xelfasebis gadaxda. es ase aRar aris. prodiuserebi studiebs korporaciuli mepatroneebis moTxovniT ufro meti discipliniT marTaven. maT ukve Sewyvites praqtika, romlis mixedviTac msaxiobs didi anaz- fulis SenarCuneba sul ufro rTuli xdeba

aCvena, rom varskvlavebic ubralo mokvdavni arian. supermenis saTamaSod supervarskvlavi aravis sWirdeba. mayureblebs mTavari gmiri, da ara msaxiobi ainteresebs. studiebi amiT isargebleben da cnobil msaxiobebs anazRaurebas Seumcireben. 2015 wels holivudis am cvlilebis Sedegebi ufro cxadi gaxdeba, vinaidan is ekosistema, romelic msaxiobis xelfaszea (agentebis, menejerebisa da advokatebis CaTvliT) damokidebuli, sisustis niSnebs amJRavnebs. Tavis gasatanad yvelaze iRblian msaxiobebs 2015 wels satelevizio SouebSi gamosvla mouwevT. umaRlesi klasis zogma msaxiobma, kevin speisis CaTvliT, ukve televiziaSi gadainacvla. grZelvadiani satelevizio programebi SesaZloa kinoze mimzidvelic ki gamodges. msaxiobTa nawili arcTu glamurul satelevizio reklamas mimarTavs. 2014 wels, meTiu makkonahi, romelmac mcirebiujetiani `dalaseli myidvelebis klubSi~TamaSisaTvis kinoakademiis jildo – `oskari~ daimsaxura, aseve satelevizio HBO-s SouSic iTamaSa da Lincoln-is avtomobils reklamireba gauwia. divanze wamowolil mayurebels varskvlavebis aseT axal ampluaSi cqeris meti Sansi miecema. n

109

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msoflio 2015

singapuro, gilocavT dabadebis dRes! laza kekiCi

biznesis keTebis saukeTeso da uaresi adgilebi

amdenime wliswinandel periodamde mosalodneli iyo, rom msoflioSi biznesis keTebis pirobebi gaumjobesdeboda, rac globalizaciis energiuli marSis asaxva unda yofiliyo, magram axla biznesgaremos mudmivi gaumjobesebis tendencia, rac mZlavri zrdiT, liberaluri ekonomikuri reformebiTa da infrastruqturaSi investirebiT iyo gamyarebuli, SeCerda da zogan ukuiqca kidec. biznesis momavali landSafti kapitalis mier sazRvrebis kveTis naklebi intensivobiT, ufro mkacri regulaciiTa da naklebi riskiT iqneba aRbeWdili. bevr qveyanaSi ndoba Semcirda da igi nela Tu aRdgeba. ekonomikur garemoze fiskaluri disbalansic, rogorc dune zrdis Sedegi, gavlenas moaxdens. eWvebi bankebis simyaresTan dakavSirebiT da finansebTan wvdomis SezRuduloba finansuri sistemis momavals Crdilavs. mraval qveyanaSi amboxis riski matulobs. gazrdili saerTaSoriso daZabuloba politikuri stabilurobis prognozebsac auaresebs. es aris vrceli suraTi, rasac The Economist-is dobili kompania – Economist Intelligence Unit-is biznesgaremos reitingebi qmnis. momavalze orientirebuli reitingebiT, 2019 wlamde, 82 qveynis ganviTarebis SesaZlo tendenciebi iangariSeba. amaSi EIU-is qveynis analitikosebis raodenobrivi monacemebi da Sefasebebi gamoiyeneba, romlebiTac ama Tu im qveynis biznesgaremos mimzidveloba fasdeba. es asaxavs strategiis formulirebisas biznesis mier gamoy-

samyaros mwvervalze

enebul umTavres kriteriumebs. kerZod – politikas, ekonomikas, sabazro SesaZleblobebs, Tavisufali mewarmeobis politikas, ucxouri investiciebisadmi Riaobas, ucxouri vaWrobisa da savaluto kontrols, gadasaxadebs, dafinansebas, Sromis bazarsa da infrastruqturas. Sedegi? – singapuri reitingis saTaveSia. es erTgvari siaxlea qalaqis daarsebis 50 wlisTavis zeimisas 2015 wels. es efeqtiani, Ria ekonomikaa, romelic bevrs muSaobs konkurentunarianobis SesanarCuneblad da globaluri biznesis regionuli `habis~ funqcias asrulebs. SesaZloa evrozona stagnaciaSia, magram evropuli qveynebi kargad gamoiyurebian. BRIC qveynebis ekonomikebi marTalia kvlavac mimzidvelia sididis gamo, magram biznesis warmoeba iq rTulia da reitingSic dabali adgilebi uWiravT. CineTi 50-ea, xolo ruseTi 64-e. venesuela da libia siis boloSia. n

laza kekiCi: Economist Intelligence Unitis biznesreitingebis Semqmneli

kargebi, cudebi da Zalian cudebi biznesgaremos reitingebi *, 2015-19 reitingi

reitingi

singapuri

iaponia

litva

ruseTi

Sveicaria

espaneTi

italia

yazaxeTi

avstralia

yatari

saudis arabeTi

argentina

hong-kongi

ags

TurqeTi

tunisi

SvedeTi

israeli

brazilia

maroko

kanada

estoneTi

indoeTi

bangladeSi

aSS

samxreT korea

peru

egvipte

dania

CexeTis respublika

CineTi

ukraina

axali zelandia

poloneTi

bulgareTi

ekvadori

fineTi

meqsika

samxreT afrika

azerbaijani

germania

slovakeTi

xorvatia

pakistani

norvegia

slovenia

kolumbia

alJiri

irlandia

tailandi

filipinebi

nigeria

taivani

kviprosi

indonezia

kenia

Cile

bahreini

iordania

kuba

holandia

ungreTi

el salvador

irani

belgia

portugalia

vietnami

angola

safrangeTi

latvia

Sri-lanka

venesuela

avstria

quveiTi

serbeTi

libia

malaizia

kosta rika

saberZneTi

britaneTi

rumineTi

dominikis respublika 63

*reitingi efuZneba aTi farTo kategoriis Sesaxeb 91 i ndikatoris mixedviT Segrovil qulebs wyaro: Economist Intelligence Unit

2015 mokled HBO fasian onlainserviss afuZnebs. ase rom, isini, vinc `SimSilis TamaSebs~ Tvalyurs adevneben, sakabelo da satelituri momsaxurebis xelmomwerni aRar iqnebian

110

msoflio 2015

biznesi

manqanebis laparakis dro dadga

egendaruli General Motors-is ufrosma dizainerma, legendarulma harli erlma erTxel Tqva: `Cemi mTavari mizani amerikuli avtomobilis gagrZeleba da dadableba iyo, xandaxan realobaSi, xanac garegnulad~. erlma did warmatebas 1940-1950-ian wlebSi miaRwia, konceptavtomobilebis seriebiT, romlebic xandaxan 7 metr sigrZes aRwevdnen, simaRleSi ki metrnaxevarze odnav didebi iyvnen. magram qromisa da kudis frTebis qveS, aTwleulebis Semdeg mosul momxmarebelTa moTxovnebze da saTanado teqnologiebze seriozuli nafiqri imaleboda. erT-erTi konceptavtomobili – samxedro TviTmfrinaviT STagonebuli Firebird I I , mZRolis ocnebis gamoxatuleba iyo. samyarosi, sadac manqanebi sakuTar Tavs marTaven da gamonabolqvs `lagami aqvs amodebuli~. es `Wkviani~ gzebiT, ukabelo kavSiriTa da avtomatizaciis teqnologiiTaa miRweuli. es is teqnologiebia, romlebic erT dros samecniero fantastikis sferos ganekuTvneboda, Tumca axla swrafad iqceva sainJinro realobad. roca globaluri avtoindustria axali teqnologiebis wyalobiT ganviTarebas ganagrZobs, manqanis usafrTxoebaSi axali simaRleebi iqneba miRweuli, adamianebs faseuli dro daezogebaT, manqanebi energetikulad ufro efeqtianebi gaxdebian. avtomatizebuli marTvis teqnologiebi, romlebic mZRolis dasaxmareblad da ara mis Semcvlelad arian gamiznulni, uzarmazar rols iTamaSeben. gasuli wlebis ganmavlobaSi msofliom avariis Tavidan acilebis teqnologiebiT aRWurvili mravali avtomobili ixila. es moicavs radars, kamerasa da sxva sensorebs, romlebic mZRolebs usafrTxo distanciis dacvaSi, uxilavi zonebis danaxvaSi da TavianT saval nawilebSi dasarCenad daexmareba. saWiroeba naTelia: magaliTad, britaneTSi avariaTa 40%-Si mZRoli `saTanadod ver xedavda~ viTarebas. igive teqnologiebi saavario situaciaSi avtomaturi damuxruWebisTvisaa gankuTvnili. aman SesaZloa uknidan Sejaxebebi agvaridos, rac aSS-Si dafiqsirebuli avariebis 40%-s moicavs.

teqnologia brunisTvis gamoiyeneT

daaxloebiT or weliwadSi Cadillac-i Super ruise-s gamouSvebs, rac mZRolebs saWesTan C da saterfulebTan Sexebis gareSe, xangrZlivi drois ganmavlobaSi, trasebze usafrTxod gadaadgilebis saSualebas miscems – rogorc gadatvirTuli, aseve swrafi moZraobis periodSi. niu-iorkis mcxovreblebisTvis es Sua qalaqis gvirabidan aRmosavleT long-ailendamde imgvari usafrTxo gadaadgilebis fufunebaa, roca saqmis umetes nawils manqana Tavad asrulebs. Semdegi sazRvari V2X-ad wodebuli teqnologiaa, romelsac amerikuli, evropuli da iaponuri kompaniebi aviTareben. es moicavs avtomobilebs Soris, da avtomobilsa da infrastruqturas Soris komunikacias. arsebiTad, specialuri modemebi V2X-iT aRWurvil avto-

mobilebs erTmaneTTan da garesamyarosTan kontaqtis saSualebas aZleven da mZRols mosalodneli saSiSroebis Sesaxeb afrTxileben. magaliTad, Tu Semxvedrma manqanam sadacaa wiTeli SuqniSani unda gadakveTos, an manqana uxilavi kuTxidan axlovdeba, axlos moZravi mZRolebi gafrTxilebas iReben, rac maT reaqciisTvis Zvirfas dros aZlevs. amis msgavsad, Tu gzas avaria an sagzao samuSaoebi ketaven, V2X-iT aRWurvili infrastruqtura mZRolebs dauyovnebliv gaafrTxilebs. gamocdebma aCvena, rom V2X-s, calkeuli safrTxeebis sensorebze, kamerebsa da radarebze swrafad dafiqsireba SeuZliaT. amas uzarmazari gansxvaveba aqvs im SemTxvevaSi, Tu afasebT, rom 90 km/sT siCqariT moZravi manqana amerikuli fexburTis moednis sigrZis distancias 5 wamSi dafaravs. transportis departamentis kvlevebi aCvenebs, rom V2X-s im avtosagzao SemTxvevaTa 80%-is Tavidan arideba SeuZlia, romelSic fizikurad janmrTeli mZRoli xvdeba. globalurad, gaerosa da msoflio jandacvis organizaciis informaciT, yovelwliurad qveynebs avtosagzao SemTxvevebi mSp-s mTeli 1-3% ujdebaT. swored amitom arian dainteresebulni evropeli da amerikeli maregulireblebi V2X-is SemotaniT, da amitomac izrdeba interesi CineTSi. mTavrobebma da industriam kidev bevri unda gaakeTon V2X-is saTanado raodenobiT warmoebisaTvis. es moicavs standartebsa da usafrTxoebis zedamxedvelobas, aseve interoperabelurobis uzrunvelyofas. yvelam Tavisi gasakeTebeli unda gaakeTos da dReidan industrias daCqarebisken movuwodeb. GM-ma ukve gamoacxada misi V2X-iT aRWurvili 2017 Cadillac CTS modelis seriul warmoebaSi CaSvebaze momdevno ori wlis ganmavlobaSi. miCiganis Statma ikisra valdebuleba aaSenos V2X-iT aRWurvili 120-miliani sagzao infrastruqtura detroitsa da mis SemogarenSi, GM-isa da sxva avtomwarmoeblebis mxardaWeriT. es qveyanaSi teqnologiis yvelaze farTod gamoyenebis SemTxveva iqneba. mjera, rom es mxolod dasawyisia, vinaidan los-anjeless, Sanxaisa da londons ukve udgaT gadatvirTuli sagzao moZraobis problema – gacilebiT uaresad, vidre es detroitSia. amave dros, yoveli industriuli qveyana sagzao usafrTxoebis miznebs isaxavs. amaRelvebelia ukan gaxedva imis gasaazreblad, Tu raoden SorsmWvretelni iyvnen Firebird I I -is dizainerebi V2X-Tan dakavSirebiT. erTi ram cxadia: isini kargi msmenelebi gaxldnen. axla, rogorc maSin, xalxi sagzao sacobebiTaa Sewuxebuli. isini aseve amboben, rom kargi iqneba, Tu manqanebi xandaxan metis gakeTebas SeZleben. ojaxebisTvis moqalaqeebi gacilebiT usafrTxo manqanebsa da gzebs iTxoven. samoci wlis win aravis hqonda kompiuteruli aRWurviloba da programebi, amis sainJinro realobad gadasaqcevad. 2015 wels Cven es gvaqvs. axla yovelive zemoT xsenebuli bazarze unda gavitanoT, da rac SeiZleba swrafad. n

`Wkviani da dakavSirebuli teqnologiebi sadacaa marTvis transformacias ganaxorcieleben~, – winaswarmetyvelebs meri bara, General Motors -is aRmasrulebeli direqtori

Cven avtomobilebis usafrTxoebaSi morig did progress mivaRwevT, xalxs faseul dros davuzogavT, gavxdiT maT ufro energoefeqtianebs, Tanac amas erTdroulad SevZlebT

111

msoflio 2015

finansebi amave seqciaSi: momdevno finansuri aalebebi 112 da gaizrdeba ganakveTebi da sad ara 113 bankirebi da ndoba 114

evropis kapitalis bazrebi 115 mxolod SesaZlebelia… 115 momcro bankebs ayvavebis xana aqvT 116 gaiafebuli navTobis Sedegi 116

SemoqmedebiTi investireba 117 karl ikani: sameTvalyureo sabWoebisTvis meti pasuxismgeblobis miniWeba 118

boboqari drois molodinSi filip kogani

amindis cvlileba cvalebadobis indeqsi

0 2004

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2015

wyaro: Chicago Board Options Exchange

finansur bazrebze arastabiluroba brundeba

2015 mokled araamerikuli fondebis menejerebi amerikeli klientebis Semosavlebze saSemosavlo gadasaxadis gadaxdas daiwyeben

onsensusi xSirad arasaimedoa. 2013 wels safondo birJis aRmasvlis tempi investorebisTvis siurprizi aRmoCnda. 2014 wels sabirJo `daTvebi~ gaognebulni darCnen – momgebianobam iklo, evropaSi igi uaryofiTic ki gaxda ori wlis vadianobis obligaciebisaTvis. investorebi mzad iyvnen ezaralaT safrangeTisa da irlandiis mTavrobebisaTvis sesxebis gacemis dros. ase rom, ra gagvikvirdeba 2015 wels? farTo speqtris kandidatebs Soris, yvelaze saintereso arastabilurobis dabruneba iqneba. arastabilurobis yvelaze popularuli sazomi Vix-ia, romelic birJaze aqcentirdeba (zomavs opcionebis parametrebs da faqtobrivad, aCvenebs fass, romlis gadasaxdeladac investorebi mzad arian bazris mkveTri meryeobisas). rogorc grafiki aCvenebs, 2008 wlis ekonomikuri krizisi ufro metad WiqaSi moulodnelad atexili qariSxaliviT gamoiyureba. amis Semdeg dafiqsirda ori mcire zomis `qarborbala~, magram bazari sabolood mainc damSvidda. 2014 wlis seqtembris bolosaTvis Vix istoriuli standartebiT Zalian dabali iyo. es albaT monetaruli politikis Sedegi gaxldaT. saprocento ganakveTis zrda did, mdidar ekonomikebSi ramdenime wlis ganmavlobaSi ar dafiqsirebula da centralurma bankebma bevri gaakeTes bazrebis `dasamSvideblad~, aqtivebis SeZenisa da sabanko dakreditebis meSveobiT. Tumca es SesaZloa Seicvalos 2015 wels, radgan federalurma sarezervo sistemam ukve Sewyvita fasiani qaRaldebis Sesyidva da debatebis umetesoba imas daeTmoba, Tu rodis aiwevs saprocento ganakveTi da vin gaamkacrebs pirvelad fulad politikas – Fed-i Tu inglisis banki. Tu bazari ganakveTis erTjerad zrdas xedavs, igi, rogorc wesi, kidev ramdenimes moelis.

marTalia, evropis centraluri banki da iaponiis banki savaraudod Seyovndebian monetaruli aqseleratoris gamoyenebis SewyvetaSi, magram politikis sxvadasxvaobam SesaZloa arastabiluroba erT konkretul adgilas – savaluto bazrebze gamoiwvios. krizisis dros mkveTri zrdisa (saxazino obligaciebi usafrTxo aqtivebad miiCneoda) da Semdgomi Semcirebis Semdeg, dolari bolo ori wlis ganmavlobaSi uaRresad stabilur aqtivad rCeboda. savaluto bazrebze erT-erTi Zalze popularuli TamaSi savaluto aqtivebiT spekulaciaa, romelic yvelaze momgebiani valutis Sesyidvas, dabalSemosavliani valutis gayidvas an sesxebasa da gansxvavebis jibeSi Cadebas gulisxmobs. bolo dros treiderebisaTvis mxolod mcire zomis uZvirfasesi gansxvaveba Tu arsebobda, magram 2014 wlis Semodgomaze gamoCnda niSnebi imisa, rom dolari axali aRmavlobis gzas daadgeboda. gansxvaveba germanuli da amerikuli aTwliani obligaciebis SemosavlianobaSi yvelaze didi iyo evros SemoRebis Semdeg. ase rom, spekulaciis garkveuli potenciali arsebobs. arastabilurobis kidev erTi potenciuri wyaro safondo birJaa. 2014 wlis oqtomberSi didi ryeva dafiqsirda, roca investorebi wuxdnen dabali globaluri zrdisa da potenciuri deflaciis gamo. `daTvebi~ didi xania winaswarmetyvelebdnen, rom centraluri bankebis mier ekonomikis stimulirebis Sewyveta gadaWarbebiT Sefasebuli aqtivebis fasebis vardnas gansakuTrebiT Wall Street-ze gamoiwvevda. `xarebis~ azriT, globaluri zrdis aCqareba, romelic 2009 wels daiwyo, kvlav gagrZeldeba. isini miuTiTeben korporaciul mogebaze, upirveles yovlisa aSS-Si, da prognozireben, rom es 2015 wels kidev ufro gaizrdeba. amJamad pirobebi, rogorc Cans, 1980-iani da 1990-iani wlebis msgavsia, rodesac investorTa enTuziazmma aqciebTan dakavSirebiT piks miaRwia, ris Sedegadac SerwymaTa, da axali kompaniebis aqciebis

filip kogani: Buttonwood-is mimomxilveli, The Economist

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finansebi

krizisi? romeli krizisi? raian aventi

potenciuri panikis sami SesaZlo sfero

014 wels bazris dabali meryeoba, 2015 wels savaraudod `qariSxlis~ winamorbedi gaxdeba. federaluri sarezervo sistema, CineTi da (kidev erTxel) evros zona finansuri `qariSxlis~ sami potenciuri wyaroa. 2013 wels, federaluri sarezervo sistemis mier aqtivTa Sesyidvebis Semcirebis mxolod molodinma, ganviTarebad msoflioSi `Senelebis panika~ gamoiwvia. es dolarTan mimarTebaSi valutis kursis mkveTr gaufasurebasa da moziduli saxsrebis mkveTr gaZvirebasac moicavda. rogorc ki federaluri sarezervo sistema 2006 wlidan moyolebuli pirvelad, saprocento ganakveTis zrdisken svlas ganagrZobs, kapitalma SesaZloa ganviTarebadi ekonomikebi datovos, rasac savaraudod valutis dasusteba da sesxebis xarjTa zrda mohyveba. mowyvlad qveynebs, maRali davalianebiTa da mimdinare angariSis deficitiT (magaliTad, TurqeTsa da indonezias), SesaZloa gauZneldeT kreditorTa valebis dafarva. es, Tavis mxriv, stresul mdgomareobaSi Caagdebs ganviTarebad qveynebSi aqtivebis mqone bankebs. Tu federaluri sarezervo sistema ganviTarebad qveynebSi swraf kriziss ver gamowvevs, CineTs es namdvilad

2015 mokled indoeTis sarezervo banki iwyebs im bankebis wliuri siis gamoqveynebas, romlebic Zalian didia gakotrebisTvis

msoflio 2015

SeuZlia. kreditis swrafi zrdis miuxedavad, CineTis ekonomikuri zrdis tempi neldeba. aq mTeli ekonomikis davalianeba (rogorc kerZo, aseve saxelmwifo seqtorebisa) 2008 wlis mSp-s 100%-ze odnav meti maCveneblidan, amJamindel 250%-mde gaizarda. marTalia, davalianebis sidide ganviTarebuli qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan SedarebiT dabalia, magram misi zrdis tempi SemaSfoTebelia. roca CineTis mTavrobam kreditis zrdis SezRudva scada, ekonomikamac `waiforxila~ da saxeldaxelod Sekowiwebuli finansuri produqtebi bazridan gaqra. Cinuri krizisi Cveulebrivi panika ar iqneba â&#x20AC;&#x201C; safinanso sistemasa da qveynis ekonomikidan, aseve masSi kapitalis Semodineba-gadinebaze saxelmwifos kontrolis gamo. amis nacvlad, es uZravi qonebis fasebis vardnasa da CineTis Crdilovani sabanko seqtoris saeWvo institutebis kraxsac niSnavs. uZravi qonebis bazris kolafsi bankebs uimedo sesxebis amara da axali sesxebis gacemis SesaZleblobis gareSe datovebs. zrda mkveTrad Semcirdeba. gasuli aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi CineTi msoflio ekonomikis zrdis yvelaze saimedo wyaro iyo da misi Seneleba nedleulis fasebis uTuo dacemasac niSnavs. uecarma vardnam SesaZloa kidev ufro gaamZafros ganviTarebadi qveynebisadmi arsebuli pesimisturi damokidebuleba, rac ganviTarebad samyaroSi kapitalis `gvalvas~ gamowvevs. 2013 wels, ganviTarebadma qveynebma gauZles ekonomikuri zrdis SenelebiT gamowveul problemebs finansuri sistemis daxvewisa da ucxour valutaSi ganTavsebuli moculobiTi rezervebis gamoyenebis gziT. garda amisa, maTi mdgomareoba zrdis damaimedebelma prognozebmac gaamyara. es momavalSi ase aRar iqneba da ganviTarebadi qveynebis zrda momdevno xuTi wlis ganmavlobaSi aucileblad Seneldeba saSualo 5%-mde, wina aTwleulis 7%-Tan SedarebiT. es gazrdis warumatebel investiciaTa ricxvs da Seqmnis problemebs ganviTarebadi qveynebis calkeuli

birJebze ganTavsebis talRa agorda. am dros, axali fulis Semodinebis kvalobaze, birJebis aqtivoba mkveTrad izrdeba. Semdeg kolafsi SesaZloa kidev ufro swrafad dadges, maSin roca `Wkviani fuli~ mogebas miiRebs. Tu kolafsi marTlac xdeba, centralur bankebs saxifaTo gadawyvetilebis miReba uwevT: unda gadaarCinon bazrebi da amiT ganamtkicon arsebuli Sexeduleba, rom maTi funqcia aqtivebis Rirebulebis SenarCunebaa, Tu isini ubralod aZleven bazrebs vardnis saSualebas da safinanso seqtorSi riskis gavrcelebas ar ewinaaRmdegebian, riTac SesaZloa momxmarebelTa ndobac dazaraldes? obligaciebis bazrebi aseve potenciuri areulobis wyaroa. ultradabali Semosavlianoba evropaSi, rogorc Cans, ganpirobebulia iaponuri stiliT â&#x20AC;&#x201C; dune zrdiTa da minimaluri inflaciiT. marTlac, garda iaponiisa, aseTi dabali Semosavlianobis obligaciebis yidva istoriulad cud garigebad miiCne-

bankebisaTvis. Tu `fxian~ investorebs is SeaSfoTebT, rom valutebis Rirebulebis dakargva kapitalis danakargebs gamoiwvevs, maSin srulfasovani panika Camoyalibdeba.

yvela gzas romSi mivyavarT es saSiSroebac ki fermkrTaldeba imasTan SedarebiT, rac SeiZleba evrozonaSi moxdes. mas Semdeg, rac 2012 wels evropis centraluri bankis meTaurma mario dragim, evros gadasarCenad yvela SesaZleblobis mosinjva gadawyvita, mdgomareoba gaumjobesda. Tumca dune zrda da klebadi fasebi axali panikis saSiSroebas zrdis. italia misi dawyebis SesaZlo adgilad moiazreba. 2007 wlis Semdeg, evroSi denominirebuli italiis ekonomika odnav Tu gaizarda. misi valis tvirTma ki mSp-s 100%dan 134%-mde imata. qveynis ekonomikis vali axla im donezea, rogoric saberZneTis iyo 2009 wlis krizisis dasawyisSi. italiis obligaciebis momgebianoba dabalia upiratesad evropis centraluri bankis politikisadmi ndobis gamo. rac ufro naklebad qmediTi iqneba italiis mTavroba sabiujeto problemebis gadaWraSi, miT mcire politikuri manevrirebis saSualeba SerCeba evropis centralur banks italiuri valis gamosasyidad. obligaciebis bazars SfoTva SesaZloa kvlav daubrundes da evrokavSiri iZulebuli gaxdes italiisTvis erTdroulad valis axali paketic Seamzados da arsebuli valebis gadavadebis sqemac SeimuSaos, rasac amavdroulad evrozonis stabilurobis SesanarCuneblad germaniisa da evropis centraluri bankebis mtkice valdebulebac dasWirdeba. Tu italiis gamoxsnis gegmis safasuri metismetad didi aRmoCndeba, germanelebma SesaZloa gadawyviton, rom sakmarisia. evro axali egzistencialuri gamowvevis winaSe dadgeba, rac 2015 wels metad usiamovno elfers SesZens. n raian aventi: ekonomikis korespondenti, The Economist

va. arsebobs inflaciis ganviTarebis mcire niSani. magram Tu ekonomikuri pirobebi, romlebic aseT dabal Semosavlebs ganapirobebs, kvlavac SenarCundeba, amomrCeveli kidev ufro ukmayofilo gaxdeba, ramac SesaZloa evropuli proeqtis rwmenas Ziri gamouTxaros. es savaraudod gansakuTrebiT safrangeTsa da italias unda exebodes, sadac zrda Zalian sustia. antievropul partiebs kargi Sedegebi hqondaT evroparlamentis arCevnebSi 2014 wels. meinstrimis politikosebs amis ignorireba Zalian gauWirdebaT, Tu arsebuli tendencia kvlavac gagrZeldeba. aSS-Si, aTwliani saxazino obligaciebis sargebeli daaxloebiT 2%-ia da ucnaur kontrastSia sabirJo `xarebis~ mosazrebasTan, rom ekonomika 1990-iani wlebis stilSi ganagrZobs zrdas. bazarTagan es ori fenomeni erTmaneTTan SeuTavsebelia. arsebuli daZabuloba 2015 wels albaT mTavari finansuri sakiTxi gaxdeba. n

msoflio 2015

Senelebuli starti riCard devisi

sad gaizrdeba ganakveTebi da sad ara

015 wlis ganviTarebuli qveynebis saprocento ganakveTebTan dakavSirebiT yuradsaRebi ori samecniero skolis mosazrebebi iqneba: erTi mosazrebiT, amdeni xnis TiTqmis nulovani ganakveTebis Semdeg, sargeblis ganakveTi ekonomikis zrdasTan da umuSevrobis SemcirebasTan erTad gaizrdeba. sapirispiro mosazrebiT, ekonomika stagnacias gaagrZelebs da dabali ganakveTebi SenarCundeba. orive mosazreba garkveulwilad gamarTlebulia. centraluri bankebi, federaluri sarezervo sistemis CaTvliT, ganakveTebs gazrdian. es normalizaciis signali sulac ar iqneba da `didi Svideulis~ qveynebis jgufSi axal gaxleCas moaswavebs, miuTiTebs ra ganviTarebis divergenciaze 2015 wels da mogvianebiTac. ganakveTebi ase dabali arasodes yofila. imis gasaazreblad, Tu ramdenad ucnauri iyo gasuli eqvsi weli, sabanko krizisis adreuli faziT yvelaze metad dazaralebuli ori qveynis magaliTi unda ganvixiloT: britaneTSi 2008 wlamde 100 wlis ganmavlobaSi saprocento ganakveTi 370-jer Seicvala, anu kvartalSi erTxel icvleboda. 2009 wels, 0.5%-mde Semcirebis Semdeg igi aRar gazrdila. federalurma sarezervo sistemam ganakveTi ucvlelad eqvsi wlis ganmavlobaSi SeinarCuna, rac depresiis Semdeg gaugonari movlenaa. ganviTarebul qveynebSi paterni igivea, ganakveTebi TiTqmis nuls gautolda da aRar gazrdila. amis miuxedavad, gaumarTlebelia mosazreba, rom yvelaferi rac mcirdeba, sabolood isev unda gaizardos. istoria gamonaklisebsac gvTavazobs â&#x20AC;&#x201C; es iaponiaa. 1989 wlis safondo birJis kraxis Semdeg, aq Rrma recesia daiwyo. 1996 wlis Semdeg iaponiis centraluri bankis ganakveTebi 1%-s ar ascilebia. iafma fulma fasebis `gaqcevas~ sulac ar daudo dasabami, inflacia kraxis Semdeg wliuri 0,5%-is doneze darCa, xolo fasebi 1991-2005 wlebSi mudmivad mcirdeboda. zrdis pesimistebi, harvardis universitetel lari samersis CaTvliT, aRniSnaven, rom `sekularuli stagnaciis~ axali faza (dabali zrda, dabali inflacia da saprocento ganakveTebi), iaponiis am `avadmyofobis~ msgavsad, didwilad dasavleTsac moelis. imis gasagebad, Tu am mosazrebebidan romelia ufro swori, aseve 2015 wlis ganakveTebze saTanado warmodgenis Sesaqmnelad, investorebma Sromis ba-

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finansebi zari inflaciasa da zrdaze ufro Rrmad unda Seiswavlon. aSS-Si, 2009 wlis 10%-iani pikis Semdeg, umuSevroba 6%-ze dabla daeca. umuSevrobis Semdgomi Semcireba, savaraudod mis niSnuls 5.5%-is farglebSi daafiqsirebs. federaluri sarezervo sistemis azriT, am doneze wnexi xelfassa da fasebze gaizrdeba. aSS-is centraluri banki `did Svideuls gauZRveba~, gazrdis ra ganakveTebs pirvelad maT Soris. mravali miiCnevs, rom amas upirvelesad inglisis banki gamoexmaureba (marTlac, calkeulTa azriT, amas igi yvelaze adre gaakeTebs). magram miuxedavad imisa, rom 2014 weli kargi gamodga, mdgradi zrdiTa da Semcirebuli umuSevrobiT, banki ufro nela imoqmedebs. britaneTSi ganakveTis zrda mxolod maSin aris mosalodneli, roca umuSevroba 5%-mde daecema. amisaTvis saWiroa, rom daxloebiT 350 000-ma umuSevarma britanelma iSovos samsaxuri. im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu samuSao adgilebi sakmarisad swrafad Seiqmneba, es 2015 wlis maisis arCevnebamde mosalodneli mainc ar aris. Sromis nayofierebaSi arsebuli uzarmazari ufskruli aseve imas miuTiTebs, rom britaneTSi xelfasebze wnexis Camosayalibeblad meti droa saWiro. sazRvargareT ganviTarebuli movlenebi britaneTis inflacias Seakavebs. evrokavSirSi 25 milioni umuSevaria. britanelma politikosebma unda gaiTvaliswinon, rom am uzarmazari samuSao Zalis nawili mzadaa samsaxurSi mosawyobad britaneTSi gadavides.

2015 mokled Swype sakredito baraTebis dro warsuls Cabardeba. aSS-Si 550 milioni Cip da pin-baraTebi moqmedebs

dreifi sapirispiro mimarTulebebiT

evropis centraluri banki ganakveTebs 2015 wels ar gazrdis. evrozonis saxelmwifoebSi italia yvelaze problemur qveynad darCeba saxelmwifo valis gamo, romelic evrozonis mTliani valis meoTxeds Seadgens. misi reitingi BBB-mde daqveiTdeba, rac TiTqmis uvargiss niSnavs sareitingo saagento Standard & ÂPoor-is mixedviT. gaizrdeba SeSfoTeba safrangeTTan dakavSirebiT: misi ekonomikis didi gamocda prezident olandis axali samwliani programa gaxdeba, romlis mixedviTac xarjebi 50 milioni evroTi (63 miliardi dolari) unda Semcirdes, xolo sagadasaxado SeRavaTebma amave dros 40 miliardi evro unda Seadginos. es logikuri grZelvadiani gegmaa, magram ufro mZime dakreditebis pirobebi, safrangeTis bankebis mier saojaxo meurneobaTa, firmebis dakreditebis pirobebisa da fiskaluri politikis gamkacrebis fonze, 2015 wels situaciis garTulebas moaswavebs. 2015 wels iaponias `danis pirze siaruli~ mouwevs. evropis centraluri bankis msgavsad, iaponiis banki wlis ganmavlobaSi rbili politikis erTguli darCeba. es zrdasa da inflacias Seuwyobs xels. amave dros, 2015 wlis oqtombrisaTvis dagegmil brunvaze gadasaxadis 8%-dan 10%-mde zrda garkveul SeSfoTeswori gza airCie bas Seqmnis. am gadasaxadis 5-dan 8%-mde zrdam 2014 centraluri bankis saprocento ganakveTi, % wels qveynis ekonomikis mkveTri Seneleba gamoiwvia. 2008 zogadad, 2015 weli gaorebuli progresis weli 6 crash iqneba. britaneTisa da aSS-is mier aRebuli kursis miuxedavad, ganakveTebi swrafad ver gaizrdeba. ad5 gili eqneba imis gamo gaRizianebasac, rom aSS-Si samuSaos maZiebelTa nawili xels Caiqnevs da aqtiur 4 samuSao Zalas gamoakldeba, xolo britaneTSi xelfasebi dabali darCeba. ganakveTebis SenarCunebaze 3 orientirebul qveynebs sazrunavi kidev ufro meti eqnebaT. arsebobs 2 iaponiis stagnaciis realuri riski, xolo 1 evrozonis qveynebi iaponiis magaliTs 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 200 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Tavis momavalTan gaaigiveben. n *Economist Intelligence Unit prognozis wyaro: Thomson Reuters

riCard devisi: ekonomikis redaqtori, The Economist

114

finansebi

msoflio 2015

wmindanebi da codvilni laionel barberi

dasavleTis topbankirebi ndobis dabrunebas ecdebian

ankirebis bonusebTan dakavSirebuli sazogadoebrivi gaRizianebis pikze, Barclays-is aRmasrulebeli direqtori bob daimondi amayad acxadebda, rom sindisis qenjnisa da bodiSis moxdis dro warsuls Cabarda. 2015 wels misi survili simarTles daemsgavseba – 2009 wlidan, LIBOR ganakveTebTan dakavSirebuli TaRliTobis Semdeg, romelmac 150 miliardi dolari Seiwira, dazRvevisa da giravnobis produqtebis ukanono gayidvebisa da sxva Secodebebis Semdeg, dasavleTis wamyvani bankirebi sul mcire, sasamarTlo davebis garda sxva mniSvnelovan sakiTxebze yuradRebis mipyrobas SeZleben. finansuri momsaxurebis seqtoris mesveurebi 2015 wels postkrizisuli msoflios maRali sargeblis ganakveTebs, ufro `msuye~ buferul kapitalsa da moqnil, teqnologiebSi gaTviTcnobierebul konkurentebs yuradRebas dauTmoben. maregulireblebis mier `xanZris Casaqrobad~ mimarTuli Zalisxmeva nayofs gamoiRebs da bankebi maqsimalurad ecdebian TavianTi institutebi gacilebiT usafrTxo da sazogadoebisaTvis sando gaxadon. bunebrivia, zedamxedvelebic rols SeinarCuneben. niu-iorkis `sami megobari~ (generaluri prokurori erik Sneidermani, ufrosi regulatori benjamin lavski da mTavari bralmdebeli preet bharara) bankebis policiis funqciebs kvlavac gaagrZeleben, gansakuTrebiT – damrRvevebisa. londonSi, maikl uiTlis finansur bazrebze moqmedebis normaTa dacvis kontrolis samsaxuris `Caxmaxi~ `SemarTuli~ iqneba. koleqtiuri sarCelebi `ueWveli fsonia~ da ucxouri valutis manipulaciebSi braldebis saqme jerac dausrulebelia. amasTan, bankebi imedovneben, rom yvelaze uaresi ukve warsuls Cabarda: `Cven piks 2014 wels mivaRwieT LIBOR-is sakiTxis gadawyvetis Semdeg~, – acxadebs erTerTi ufrosi evropeli bankiri, – `sakuWnaoSi ConCxebi aRar darCa~. maregulireblebis dasamSvideblad yvela bankiri rodi gairjeba ise, rogorc es baton daimondis TiTqosda usaxurma memkvidrem – entoni jenkinsma SeZlo. batonma jenkinsma sainvesticio bankis saqmianobis dramatuli Sekveca da aTasobiT TanamSromlis eTikur normebSi gaTviTcnobiereba SeZlo, ramac `wminda entonis~ metsaxeli moutana. 2015 wels `Wkviani fuli~ `wminda entons~ samuSaos SenarCunebaSi daexmareba, miuxedavad imisa, rom zogierTis azriT, man Barclays mxolod erT-erT rigiT globalur bankad gadaaqcia. es britaneTis koaliciur mTavrobasa da inglisis banks ar Seawuxebs. londonis sitiSi mdebare yvela segmentSi momuSave sainvesticio bankis mimarT enTuziazmi didi isedac ar aris. igive aCvena sakredito mxriT damZimebuli Sotlandiis

laionel barberi: redaqtori, Financial Times

samefo bankidan stiven hesteris iZulebiTma wasvlam da Barclays-is ufrosi aRmasrulebeli direqtoris postisTvis gamzadebuli JPMorgan-is yofili bankiris jes stelis bolo momentSi dablokvam. araamerikul bankebSi mxolod Deutsche Bank-i darCeba srulfasovan sainvesticio bankad da qonebisa da aqtivebis marTvasac ganagrZobs. 2015 wels axal Tavmjdomare mamakacTa da qalTa svla dasruldeba Barclays, RBS, Santander-sa da SesaZloa Standard Chartered-Si, xolo Lloyds saxelmwifos meurveobaSi iZulebiT yofnis vadis gasvlas izeimebs. maisis sayovelTao arCevnebis Semdeg, xazina am bankSi Tavisi aqtivebis 25%-is gayidvas gegmavs, rac 2008 wels saxelmwifos mier ekonomikis gamoxsnis farglebSi gamoyofili saxsrebis narCen 20 mlrd funts (32 mlrd aSS dolari) Seadgens. londonis riskisTvis Tavis aridebis strategiis Sedegebs Wall Street-zec igrZnoben, Tumca naklebi simZafriT. dod-frenkis aqtis Sesabamisad, aSS-is bankebma sakuTari saxsrebiT fasiani qaRaldebiT vaWrobis sistemebi daxures, datoves periferiuli biznesi da `iafi fulis~ epoqaSi fiqsirebul Semosavlis momtan saqmianobaze damokidebulebac Seamcires.

musikis SeTxzva teqnologiis meSveobiT sabanko landSafti teqnologiis zegavleniT sul ufro metad (da xilvadad) Seicvleba. bankebma aseulobiT milioni funti daxarjes damxmare ofisebis modernizaciaze, 2008 wlis `didi kraxis~ Sedegad gakotrebuli metoqeebis integraciis mizniT. axla aqcenti wminda komerciul sasesxo saqmianobasTan erTad axal produqtebsa da momsaxurebas daeTmoba. yovelTvis dawinaurebuli inovatori Goldman Sachs 2015 wlis pirvel naxevarSi axali bankTaSorisi gzavnilebis sistemis – Symphony-s SemoRebas fiqrobs. Goldman-is bosi loid blenfeini Bloomberg-Tan satelevizio interviuSi acxadebs: `Cven teqnologiuri firma varT~. britaneTSi teqnologiis ganviTareba bankebis filialebis daxurvaSi aisaxeba, magram kidev ufro didi cvlileba personalis Semcireba da xarisxis gaumjobeseba iqneba. Santander gegmavs mkveTrad Seamciros onlainangariSis gaxsnisTvis saWiro dro. yvela komerciul banks mouwevs momsaxurebis gaumjobeseba, vinaidan Zalas ikrebs ara mxolod tradiciuli metoqeebis mier wamowyebuli axali produqtebi, magaliTad Lending Club, aramed Crdilovani benqingic. ufro mniSvnelovani isaa, rom bankebi ikvleven, Tu ramdenad xelewifebaT sakuTari sainformacio teqnologiebis platformebis gamoyeneba wminda dakreditebis operaciebis garda sxva saqmianobis sawarmoeblad. es mxolod axali epoqis dasawyisia, magram momdinare safrTxe monacemebiT mdidari iseTi kompaniebisagan, rogorebic Amazon, Facebook da Google arian, bankebisaTvis kvlavac didia. isini im dReze ocneboben, roca ara mxolod SurismaZiebel regulatorebs dausxltebian, aramed Tavidan airideben im koSmarul scenars, sadac mxolod im biznesad rCebian, romelic mudmivad erT adgils tkepnis. Wkvian umciresobas teqnologiebi `zecisken mimaval gzas~ sTavazobs. es ara mxolod odesRac codvilebs, aramed momaval wmindanebsac gulisxmobs. n

msoflio 2015

sabanko rRveva pol uolasi

evropelebma kapitalis bazrebi ufro metad unda gamoiyenon

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finansebi damokidebuleba kidev ufro didia da 85%-s Seadgens. britaneTi Sealedur poziciazea, korporaciuli valis 62%-is dafinansebiT. bankebze damokidebulebis Semcirebis erTi gza sekuritizaciis bazaria, romelic finansuri krizisis Semdeg sakuTari Tavis aCrdiliRaa, miuxedavad imisa, rom 2007 wlis Semdeg evropuli sekuritizaciis defoltis jamuri maCvenebeli bevrad dabalia, vidre aSS-Si. aseTi aRorZineba bankebs dafinansebis axal wyaroebTan gauxsnis gzas da maT riskis diversifikaciisa da kapitalis konservaciis saSualebas miscems. saqmes evropis centraluri bankic waeSvele-

vros krizisis SuagulSi, 2012 wels dasaxuli amocanis – sabanko kavSiris winamZRvrebis SeqmnaSi, evropulma qveynebma progress miaRwies, Tumca Sesasrulebeli samuSaoebis sidide 2015 wels politikosebs dakavebulebs datovebs. amave dros, evrokavSirma axali saqme – saerTo kapitalis bazris Seqmna wamoiwyo, romelic evrokomisiis axalma prezidentma Jan-klod iunkerma dasaxa. sabanko kavSiris umniSvnelovanesi komponenti, evropis centraluri bankis saxiT, erTi zedamxedvelis Seqmnaa. evropis centraluri bankisaTvis 2015 weli evrozonis bankebis zedamxedvelis rangSi pirveli weli iqneba. es funqcia man formalurad 2014 wlis noemberSi itvirTa. pirveli prioriteti 2014 wlis oqtomberSi aqtivTa xarisxis mimoxilvisa da sabanko aqtivebis 80%-is mflobeli 130 msesxeblis stress testis mier naCvenebi kapitalis mxares arsebuli garRvevebis Sevseba iqneba. amisaTvis eqvsidan cxra Tve iqneba gamoyofili. evropis centraluri banki imedovnebs, rom axali funqciebis aRebamde, erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi, bankebis sijansaRis Sesafaseblad Catarebuli samuSaoebis Sedegebi investorebis eWvebs gaaqarwylebs bankebis balansze arsebul uimedo sesxebTan dakavSirebiT. Sefase- bazris xibli bamde da mis Semdegac bankebis kapitalis Canacvleba sakredito aqtivobis ganaxlebas Seuwyobs xels, ba, romelic 2014 wlis bolos dawyebuli programis rac Tavis mxriv, stagnaciaSi myof evropul ekonomifarglebSi, aqtivebiT uzrunvelyofili fasiani qakas gamoacocxlebs. amas kidev ufro gaamyarebs evroRaldebis gamosyidvas gaagrZelebs. miuxedavad amisa, pis centraluri bankis mier dakreditebis sanacvlo investorTa umniSvnelovanesi nawili – mzRvevelebi, dafinansebis sqema, romelic 2016 wlamde moqmedebs 2016 wels SemosaRebi axali wesebis gamo, aseTi inda bankebs iaf resurss awvdis. strumentis flobisgan Tavs Seikaveben. miuxedavad aseTi aRmasvlis gzaze arsebuli dabrkolebebi imisa, rom es wesebi imaze naklebad drakonulia, vidre kvlavac didia. krizisis Semdeg zedamxedvelad movelodnen, maT mainc SeuZliaT bazris ganviTarebis Selenili evropis ferxeba. sistemuri riskis sabWos eqspertebis erT dReSi araferi aSenebula mier Catarebuli kvbankebidan bazrisaken neli evoluciis ganmapirobelevis mixedviT, evbeli ufro safuZvliani mizezi evropuli kapitalropaSi metismetad izmis bunebaa. aq aSS-isgan gansxvavebiT, mcire da sabevri bankia. iqauri Sualo zomis kompaniebi dominireben, gansakuTrebiT bankebis jamuri aq– samxreT evropaSi. saojaxo firmebis mepatroneni tivebis moculoba TavianTi firmebis bazrebze ganTavsebas eridebian da mis mSp-s 3-jer aRemateba da 30 trilion evros (37 amis gakeTeba arc warsulSi uwevdaT, vinaidan bankebi trilioni aSS dolari) Seadgens. maTi balansis mocudafinansebis mosawodeblad yovelTvis mzad iyvnen. lobis Semcirebis procesi mxolod 2012 wlis Suagukapitaluri bazris namdvili kavSiris Seqmnas Sesalidan daiwyo da aqtivebi or weliwadSi meaTediT Zloa mTeli Taoba dasWirdes. n Semcirda. es Semcireba SesaZloa kvlavac gagrZeldes im SemTxvevaSi, Tu klientebi ukeT iqnebian kapitalimxolod SesaZlebelia… zebuli, vinaidan saSualo zomis evropuli bankebis biznesmodeli araqmediTia. ebolas gavrcelebis paralelurad, kakaos fasi kot es kidev ufro mniSvnelovans xdis sakredito d’ivuarsa da ganaSi - am udides mwarmoebel qveynebmoTxovnis dasakmayofileblad evrozonis mier kapiSi, izrdeba, rac warmoebaSi ryevas iwvevs. talis bazrebis gamoyenebis aucileblobas. aqciaTa bazrebi ganuviTarebelia da firmebis mier obliga2001 wlis defoltis Semdeg gadasaxdeli davalciebis gamoSvebis praqtika sustia saerTaSoriso ianebis gadavadebis Sesaxeb, argentina hejfondebis standartebiT. evropis safinanso bazrebis asociacikreditorebTan iwyebs molaparakebebs. is informaciiT, evrokavSiris arasafinanso biznesis dafinansebis 70%-s bankebi uzrunvelyofen, aSS-is AAA sakredito reitingis mqone qveyanaTa ricxvi 30%-Tan SedarebiT. sakredito sareitingo saagento 9-dan 8-mde Semcirdeba. Standard & Poor-is mixedviT, evrozonaSi bankebze

2015 mokled litva lits daemSvidobeba da evros SemomRebi me-19 qveyana gaxdeba

saSualo zomis evropuli bankebis biznesmodeli araqmediTia

pol uolasi: evropis ekonomikis redaqtori, The Economist

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finansebi

savsebiT Camoyalibebuli stenli pignali

mcire bankebi globalur titanebze upiratesobas moipoveben

abanko samyaroSi dabalansebis procesi mimdinareobs: didi bankebi maregulireblebisa da aRmasruleblebis gulis mosagebad irjebian. mcire bankebs ki, romlebic Wall Street da City-dan Sors arian, ufro `mziani dReebi udgaT~ – maTi zrda gardauvalia. aSS-Si, sadac wamyvani 25 banki wliur dafinansebas saSualod 4%-iT zrdida, maTi mcire zomis konkurentebis sasesxo aqtivebma orjer ufro swrafad imata. biznesis `lifsitebis~ mier gacemuli dafinanseba, (aSS-Si daaxloebiT 7000 bankia), umravles SemTxvevaSi erTaderTi filialis meSveobiT, TumcaRa orniSna ricxvis tempiT izrdeba. `lifsitebi~ didi `TanamoZmeebisgan~ gansxvavebiT, mogebis marJebsac zrdian. britaneTSi `gamomwvevi~ xandazmuli oligopoliis safuZvlebs arRveven. 2010 wels, britaneTSi 100 wlis ganmavlobaSi daarsebuli pirveli axali Metro Bank, 2015 wlidan albaT momgebian periodSi gadainacvlebs, 2016 wels safondo birJaze dagegmili flotaciis win. misi modeli, romelic filialebis SviddRian muSaobas da dRis ganmavlobaSi operaciebis gvianobamde warmoebas efuZneba, mkveTr kontrastSia konkurentebis rutinul momsaxurebasTan. britaneTis kidev erTma axalwveulma Svedurma Handelsbanken-ma TiTqosda martivi modeliT miipyro yuradReba da fil-

2015 mokled gilocavT dabadebis dRes, dido bankebo – HSBC-s 150, Lloyds-s 250, xolo Barclays – 325 weli SeusruldaT

kalum uiliamsi: ekonomikis korespondenti, The Economist

msoflio 2015 ialebis menejerebs sesxebis damtkicebis ufleba misca. moSorebul qolcentrTan urTierTobis nacvlad, momxmareblebs adgilobrivi warmomadgenlebisTvis mobilur telefonze darekva SeuZliaT. 2015 wlis pirvel naxevarSi saqmianobas didi xnis nanatri onlain Atom Bank Seudgeba. mcire bankebs warsul saqmianobasTan dakavSirebuli ufro naklebi problema awuxebT did konkurentebTan SedarebiT. bevri maTgani finansebis sainvesticio benqings ukavSirdeba, romlebSic mcire bankebi naklebad monawileoben. ucxouri valutebis savaWro darbazi da kompleqsuri derivativebi erT dros didi bankebis upiratesoba iyo. amJamad es jarimebis `mexamridia~, romelTaganac zogi imdenad didia, rom wlebis jamur mogebasac ki aRemateba. ufro uaresic – zedamxedvelebi wesebis damrRvev firmebs imdenad energiulad aviwrovebdnen, rom industriis `titanebs~ SesaZleblobaTa gamoyenebis SiSic ki gauCndaT. saerTaSoriso bankebi Civian, rom marginalur bazrebze mwiri mogebis gamodevneba (magaliTad, savaWro krediti maliSi da sakredito baraTebi pakistanSi) regulatorebis wnexSi moqcevis riskad namdvilad ar Rirs. es adgilobrivi msesxeblebisTvis gamouyenebel sivrces qmnis. sainvesticio benqingis nawili, ro-

CaZirva? kalum uiliamsi

ufro iafi navTobis Sedegebi

008 wels bareli navTobis fasi 140 dolari iyo, magram 2014 wels, aSS-is miwodebis zrdis, susti ekonomikisa da Zlieri dolaris wyalobiT, igi 85 dolaramde Semcirda. ra moxdeba, Tuki navTobis fasi 2015 wels kidev ufro daecema? ufro dabali navTobis fasebi globalur zrdas Seuwyobs xels. kvleviTi organizacia Capital Economics-is warmomadgeneli endriu keningemi aRniSnavs, rom barelis fasis 10%-iT Semcireba globaluri moTxovnis 0.2-0.3%-iT zrdas iwvevs. evropisTvis, rogorc navTobis didi importiorisTvis, es didi SeRavaTi iqneba, TumcaRa navTobis gaiafeba bolomde umtkivneulod ar Caivlis. evrozonis inflacia 2011 wlis 3%-dan 2014 wlis seqtemberSi 0.4%-mde daeca. evropis centraluri bankis xelmZRvaneli mario dragi aRniSnavs, rom am vardnis 80% navTobsa da sursaTze Semcirebulma fasebma ganapiroba. Tu navTobis fasi kidev Semcirdeba, evropaSi Sesa-

melic tradiciulad finansuri gigantebis prerogativad miiCneoda, mcire firmebis moZalebas Zlivs umklavdeba. sakonsultacio biznesi, romelSic bankirebi kompaniebs SerwymaTa da Sesyidvis meSveobiT marTaven, an maT bazarze kapitalis mozidvaSi exmarebian, `cisfersisxliani~ firmebis – Goldman Sachs-is an JPMorganChase-isTvis iyo dabevebuli. axla korporaciuli dafinansebis saxlebi, romlebsac xSirad yofili gigantebis `jadoqrebi~ uZRvebian, bazris daaxloebiT mesameds floben. `butikuri firmebi, romlebSic sul ramdenime dasaqmebuli da Bloomberg-is terminalia, 2014 wlis pirvel cxra TveSi ganxorcielebuli Serwymisa da Sesyidvis aTi udidesi globaluri garigebidan eqvsis konsultantad mogvevlinen~, – iuwyeba finansuri informaciis provaideri Dealogic-i. sinamdvileSi, didi bankebi kvlavac SesaSur poziciebs inarCuneben. sainvesticio benqingis calkeuli sferoebi, magaliTad, obligaciebiT, nedleuliTa da valutiT vaWroba ufro met masStabs moiTxovs, rac arTulebs `lifsitebis~ mdgomareobas. zogan msxvili bankebi politikur gavlenasac floben, rac maT arasasurveli regulaciebis mogeriebaSi exmareba, es ki mcire bankebisTvis xelmiuwvdomelia. axsovT ra 2008 wlis katastrofa, investorebi kvlavac fiqroben, rom udidesi bankebis gakotrebas aravin dauSvebs. es TavisTavad didi upiratesobaa. aqedan gamomdinare, gigantebs fulis ufro iafad mozidva SeuZliaT, rac sesxebis siiafis mizezia. da mainc, miuxedavad imisa, rom didi bankebis regulirebis tvirTi mcirdeba, 2015 industriis ufro mcire warmomadgenlebisaTvis kargi weliwadi iqneba. n stenli pignali: `benqingis~ redaqtori, The Economist

Zloa deflacia daiwyos, rac evropelebs xarjebis Semcirebisken ubiZgebs. es swored is gaxlavT, rac baton dragis ar surs. 2015 wels navTobis mwarmoeblebi izaraleben. Deutsche Bank-is mkvlevrebis informaciiT, sanavTobo kartel OPEC-is 12 wevridan 7 biujetis dabalansebas veRar SeZlebs, Tuki fasi 100 dolarze dabla daiwevs. seqtemberSi, gansakuTrebiT araefeqtiani mwarmoeblis – venesuelas fasiani qaRaldebis reitingi mkveTrad daeca. OPEC-is udides mwarmoebels – saudis arabeTs naRdi fulis didZali maragebi aqvs, TumcaRa fasis 90 dolarze metad Semcirebis SemTxvevaSi, miwodebis Sekvecis SesaZleblobas isic ganixilavs. iafi navTobi did gavlenas moaxdens ruseTzec: misi ekonomika Zlivs umklavdeba dasavleTis sanqciebs finansebsa da energetikis sferoSi. teritoriebis mitaceba Zviri siamovnebaa – kremlis mier aneqsirebuli yirimis naxevarkunZulis subsidireba miliardobiT dolari jdeba. navTobze fasis Semdgomi vardna SesaZloa damangreveli aRmoCndes. navTobi ruseTis eqsportis naxevarsa da federaluri biujetis 40%-s uzrunvelyofs. ufulo vladimir putins saSinao frontze poziciebis SenarCunebaze mouwevs fiqri.n

ocnebaTa mosavali eduard maqbraidi

investorebi yvelaze kreatiulebi unda gaxdnen – fasebi grZelvadiani Semosavlebis saSualoze bevrad maRalia

a iqneba yvelaze kaprizuli investiciebi 2015 wels? aqciebisa da obligaciebis, rogorc portfelebis umetesobis lomis wili, Zalian Zviria. zog moklevadian samTavrobo obligaciaze sargebeli ukve uaryofiTia. magaliTad, maTi yidva ufro Zviria, vidre maTi amonagebi da nominali. analogiurad, S&P 500-ma sarekordo maCveneblebs 2014 wels ramdenjerme miaRwia. es yvelaferi investorebs mcire arCevans utovebs. Seqmnil mdgomareobaze maTi pasuxi is iyo, rom resursebi aqciebisa da obligaciebis bzarebis im segmentebSi daebandebinaT, sadac gansaxilveli aqtivebis aseTi riskianobis gamo raime mogebis miReba mainc SeiZleboda. 2014 wels maT iseTi qveynebis saxelmwifo obligaciebi daagroves, rogorebic kot d’ivuari da saberZneTia, romelic iqamde sul raRac ori wlis win gakotrda. maT aseve susti finansuri mdgomareobis mqone firmebis gamoSvebuli `maRali sargeblis~korporaciuli obligaciebi imdenad did fasad Seisyides, rom aseTi saxelwodeba Seusabamo xdeba. msgavsi qceva srulad ar gaqreba. magaliTad, valis yvelaze reputaciadakarguli formis – `struqturuli kreditis~ erTgvari reabilitaciac ki moxdeba. es kategoria moicavs im finansur instrumentebs, romlebmac finansuri krizisis provocireba moaxdines. aseTia, magaliTad, aqtivebiT uzrunvelyofili fasiani qaRaldebi. amis Semdeg investorTa umravlesobisaTvis es `anaTemad~ iqca. Tumca centraluri bankebi mzad arian aaRorZinon es instrumenti, rogorc sesxebis gayidvis meqanizmi, rac axali sesxebis gasacemad resursebis mobilizebis saSualebas iZleva. marTlac, evropis centraluri banki mravali maTganis Sesyidvas apirebs, rac bazars gamoacocxlebs. sazogadod, investorebis xangrZlivi `cocva~ `riskis mrudis~ zeda nawilisken, mimarTulebas Seicvlis. ukve adgili hqonda maRalSemosavliani valebis gayidvis magaliTebs. sentimentis cvlileba albaT hibridul obligaciebsac Seiwiravs. aqtivebis menejerebi bolo dros gamalebiT nadirobdnen maRali sargeblis mqone fasian qaRaldebze da amitomac korporaciuli obligaciebis am erTgvarad reputaciadakarguli `naTesavebis~ fasebi bolo dros uzomod gaizarda. magram maTTan asocirebuli damatebiTi riskebis gamo (roca emitents problemebi aqvs, xdeba maTi konvertacia aqtivebSi an wydeba sargeblis gadaxda), es produqti momavalSi sakmarisad cud variantad gamoiyureba. safondo birJebze investorTaTvis mogebis miRebis yvelaze martivi gza xarjebis Semcirebaa. dabalma Semosavlebma maT ukve ubiZga Zviri, aqtiurad marTuli fondebidan ufro metad pasiuri tipis instrumentebisaken, romelTa amocana ubralod bazrisTvis fexis awyobaa. samwuxarod, es strategiebi ver uzrunvelyofen saTanado dacvas saprocento ganakveTis zrdis pirobebSi, iseve, rogorc es 2015 wels sul mcire aSS-sa da did britaneTSi moxdeba. ganakveTebis zrda avtomaturad gamoiwvevs obligaciebis fasebis vardnas. Teoriulad maRali ganakveTebi aqciebisaTvis kargi axali ambavia, radganac es ekonomikuri viTarebis ga-

117

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jansaRebis indikatoria, TumcaRa aqciaTa arsebuli fasebi mianiSnebs, rom es kargi axali ambebi didi xania moZvelda. amasobaSi kompaniebs sul ufro gauZvirdebaT moziduli saxsrebi. didi valebis mqoneT kidev ufro gauWirdebaT misi momsaxureba. 2015 obligaciebisa da aqciebis fasebTan `arakorelirebuli~ investiciebis ayvavebis weli iqneba. Cveulebriv, nadleuli amgvarad iyideba, TumcaRa misi saSineli bolodroindeli poziciebi aRmavlobas SeaCerebs. didi iqneba moTxovna maRalSemosavlian katastroful obligaciebze, romlebic stiqiuri ubedurebis dadgomisas SedarebiT dabal sargebels iZlevian, aseve davebis gadawyvetis finansebze, romelTa meSveobiTac investorebi garantiebs sasamarTlo davebze gascemen, es ki msxvili finansuri morigebiT unda dasruldes. miuxedavad amisa, es mainc `cicqna~ bazrebia, romelTac investorTa masebis mozidva ar SeuZliaT.

2015 mokled evropuli fondebis menejerebi maregulireblebs TavianTi sainvesticio strategiebisa da portfelebis Sesaxeb detalebs miawvdian

SeinarCuneT realuri sapirispirod, fuli sxva `realur aqtivebSi~, anu fizikurad xelSesaxeb sagnebSi da ara abstraqtul finansur instrumentebSi dabanddeba. uZravi qoneba yvelaze farTod gavrcelebuli aseTi aqtivia. idealur Sedegebs is uZravi qoneba aCvenebs, romelic moklevadiani ekonomikuri ryevebisgan daculi iqneba. magaliTad, xangrZlivi ijariT gankarguli komerciuli Senobebi. imave mizezebiT, investorebi infrastruqturiT, sasoflo-sameurneo miwiTa da xetyis plantaciebiT dainteresdebian, vinaidan yoveli maTgani mdgradi, inflaciisgan daculi Semosavlebis momtania. magaliTad, nuSis baRebi moduri investiciaa.

nuSi yvavis, bazrebi ki SeiSalnen

arsebobs meryeobasTan pirdapir dakavSirebuli investiciebic. SesaZlebelia derivativebisa da ucxour valutebSi ganTavsebuli produqtebis Sesyidvac, vinaidan isini swored maSin iZlevian Semosavlebs, roca meryeobis yvelaze gavrcelebuli sazomi – Vix izrdeba. am produqtebiT sargeblobis safasuri Zalian maRalia, imitom, rom isini Cveulebriv moklevadiani fiuCersis xSir gadavadebas moiTxoven. es, savaraudod, konservatori investorebisaTvis SemaSfoTeblad obskurantulad unda JRerdes. sanacvlod, maT SesaZloa TavSesafari iseT aqtivebSi naxon, romlebic marTalia xSirad kargaven Rirebulebas (sul mcire, inflaciis gaTvaliswinebis Semdeg), magram investors utanisamosod (Tumca naRdi fulis gareSe) iSviaTad toveben. n

eduard maqbraidi: finansebis redaqtori, The Economist

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msoflio 2015

aqtivistis manifesti

013 wlis agvistoSi Cems Twitter-mimdevrebs sakuTari mosazreba Sevatyobine, rom Apple-is aqciebi ukiduresad iafad iyo Sefasebuli. amis Semdeg kompaniis aqciebis fasi 50%-iT gaizarda. The Economist-ma mTxova damewera 850-sityviani statia, Tu ra unda gaekeTebinaT investorebs 2015 wels mogebis misaRebad. gavriske da xumrobiT ganvacxade, rom amisaTvis Twitter-ze Cems mimdevrad gaxdoma da momavali tvitebis wakiTxva iyo saWiro! ufro seriozulad: The Economist-is moTxovnis pasuxad davwere, rom dRevandeli fasebiTac ki, Apple-is aqciebi metismetad iafadaa Sefasebuli. ratom? pasuxi investorTa da Wall Street-is analitikosebs Soris arsebuli Rrma gaugebrobaa. isini miiCneven, rom Apple kompiuteruli aRWurvilobis mwarmoebeli kompaniaa, maSin, roca es ukanaskneli aRWurvilobis, programirebisa da momsaxurebis mTeli ekosistemiT vaWrobs. rogorc ki momxmarebeli Apple-is romeliRac instruments iyidis da mis ekosistemaSi CaerTveba, is kidev ufro metad CarTuli xdeba masSi, kompaniis damatebiTi produqtebis Sesyidvis aucileblobis gamo. SemdgomSi, roca mowyobilobis Secvlis dro dgeba, isini kvlav Apple-is sistemaSi darCenas amjobineben, konkurentTan gadabargebis nacvlad. momxmareblis aseTi qceva azaralebs martiv mwarmoeblebs, romlebic TavianT produqtebs ubralo saqonlad ganixilaven. Tuki Cveni flagmani kompania IEP-is aqciebi 2000 wlis dasawyisSi SeiZineT, maSin Tqveni gasaSualoebuli mogeba 21.5% iqneboda, S&P500-is 3.8%-Tan SedarebiT. Tu am kompaniis aqciebs 2009 wlis 1 aprils SeisyiddiT, Tqveni wliuri mogeba 33.8% iqneboda, S&P500-is 3.8%-20.4%-Tan SedarebiT (orive SemTxvevaSi gaTvlebi 2014 wlis 30 seqtembramdea gakeTebuli). kidev ufro bevrismTqmelia adamianTa garkveuli raodenobis hipoTeturi mogeba, im 23 kompaniaSi rom daabandes investiciebi, romelTa sameTvalyureo sabWos, Cveni kadrebi 2009 wlis 1 ianvridan 2014 wlis 30 ivnisamde SeuerTdnen. Tu investorma Sesabamis kompaniaSi Cveni kadris daniSvnis dRes daabanda fuli da aqciebi Cveni kadris wasvlis dRes gayida, maSin igi 27%-is gasaSualoebul wliur mogebas miiRebda.

aqtiuri cxovrebis stilis upiratesobani Cveni aseTi maRali Sedegebis mizezi isaa, rom `aqtivistebi~ varT, am sityvis namdvili gagebiT. gasuli ori aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi aqtiurad viyaviT dakavSirebuli aRmasrulebel oficrebTan da sameTvalyureo sabWoebTan â&#x20AC;&#x201C; xSirad, megobruli formiT. me asobiT vaxSami mqonia aRmasrulebel direqtorebTan da sabWos wevrebTan niu-iorkSi mdebare Cems binaSi. moulodnelia, magram mraval aRmasrulebel direqtorebTan, romlebmac postebi Cemi kritikis Semdeg datoves, kvlav megobrul urTierTobas vinarCuneb. Cveni warmateba adasturebs, rom atiuri

pozicia Rirebulebas zrdis. es iseT kompaniebSi davadastureT, rogorebicaa Motorola, sadac Motorola Solutions-is da Mobility-s gayofis, xolo Semdeg Mobility-s Google-isaTvis miyidvis iniciatorebi viyaviT. amis gareSe kompania SesaZloa gakotrebuliyo. bolo dros aqtiurad vTanamSromlobdiT Semdeg kompaniebTan: Apple, Chesapeake, Forest Labs, Hain da eBay, iseve, rogorc bevr sxva brendTan. Apple-Sic ki, sadac myarad vumagrebT zurgs menejments, bevri ver ityvis, rom kompaniis gaZlierebaSi gadamwyveti roli ar gviTamaSia. samwuxarod, aSS-is korporaciuli marTvis sistema uunaroa. wlebis ganmavlobaSi wesebi sabWoSi myofi pirebisa da arsebuli menejmentis pasuxismgeblobisgan dacvis meqanizmebad gadaiqca. TviT IEP-Sic ki Znelia ukiduresad susti menejmentis damcavi `cixesimagris~ `kedlebis garRveva~. TumcaRa, bolo dros sameTvalyureo sabWos wevrebTan dakavSireba konfliqtis dawyebis gareSe mainc SevZeliT. rogorc sun Zis `omis xelovnebaSia~ gadmocemuli, `yvelaze didi gamarjveba is aris, romelic brZolas ar saWiroebs~. albaT ufro mniSvnelovani da imedismomcemi xangrZlivi tendenciis dasawyisia. araindeqsirebuli sapensio fondebis mniSvnelovani nawili Cemi mxardaWeriT ufro metad dainteresebulia. es fondebi S&P indeqsirebul fondebTan konkurenciis wnexSi moeqcnen. ormxrivi da hej-fondebi momsaxurebaze ufro maRal qiras aweseben, vidre sapaio fondebi, romlebic S&P500-s ubralo replikacias axorcieleben. qiris gasamarTleblad, maT indeqsfondebze ukeTesi Sedegi unda aCvenon. isini koncentrirdebian iseT aqciebze, romlebic maTi azriT `Zalian iafadaa Sefasebuli~. xSir SemTxvevaSi, aseTi aqciebis siiafis mizezi is gaxlavT, rom sameTvalyureo sabWo an aRmasrulebeli direqtorebi ver axerxeben Rirebulebis amaRlebisken mimarTuli RonisZiebebis gatarebas (amis erT-erTi magaliTia gancxadeba, rom PayPal gamoeyofa eBay-s, riskenac erTi wlis win movuwodebdi). aTwleulebis manZilze Cveni aqtivizmi aqcionerTa simdidris mravali miliardi dolariT zrdis mizezi gaxda. albaT ufro mniSvnelovania, rom aman Cveni kompaniebi gacilebiT produqtiuli da konkurentuli gaxada. miuxedavad imisa, rom kargi sameTvalyureo sabWoebis ricxvi didia, is sakmarisi ar gaxlavT. Tu uaxloes momavalSi imisaTvis ar vimoqmedebT, rom aqcionerebisadmi sabWoebisa da aRmasrulebeli direqtorebis pasuxismgeblobis grZnoba gaizardos, aSS-is ekonomika, samwuxarod, swrafad dakargavs upiratesobas. vimedovneb, Twitter-ze Cemi mimdevari gaxdebiT, magram Tu investirebas gadawyvetT, yovelTvis gaxsovdeT, rom arsebobs mizezi, ris gamoc sityva `riski~ riskisa da amonagebis Sefardebis nawilia, rasac ase detalurad vswavlobT IEP-Si. n

`dadga dro, roca aqcionerTa winaSe sameTvalyureo sabWoebis pasuxismgeblobis grZnoba unda gaizardos~, â&#x20AC;&#x201C; acxadebs karl aikani, Icahn Enterprises xelmZRvaneli

me asobiT vaxSami mqonia aRmasrulebel direqtorebTan da sabWos wevrebTan niu-iorkSi mdebare Cems binaSi. moulodnelia, magram mraval aRmasrulebel direqtorebTan, romlebmac postebi Cemi kritikis Semdeg datoves, kvlav megobrul urTierTobas vinarCuneb.

daTqma: batoni aikani Apple-Si daaxloebiT 53 milion Cveulebriv aqcias flobs. misi Sexedulebebi da aqtivebis portfeli SesaZloa nebismier dros Seicvalos. aqtivebis Sesyidvisa da gayidvisas aravin unda daeyrdnos am statias. batoni aikanis daTqmis sruli versia SegiZliaT ixiloT: economist.com/IcahnDisclaimer

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mecniereba amave seqciaSi: virTxebis Tavidan moSoreba 120 mogzauroba plutonze 121 genomis TanmimdevrobiT dalagebis mravalmxrivi

gamoyeneba 122 mxolod SesaZlebelia… 122 alaster reinoldsi: samecniero fantastikis Janridan mecnierebis faqtamde 123

win, rekordebisken pol markili

rekordebis damyareba miwaze, haersa da wyalSi

anamedrove epoqaSi axali Tavgadasavlebis asparezi sakmaod SezRudulia. aRar aris darCenili daulaSqravi mTebi, gamoukvleveli okeaneebi da arc ise didia imgvar `sagmiro saqmeTa~ CamonaTvali, romelsac adamiani SeiZleba SeeWidos. miuxedavad amisa, 2015 wels ramdenime sawarmo jgufi Seecdeba teqnologiebis maqsimumis miRwevas da miwaze, haersa da wyalSi axali rekordebis damyarebas. pirveli, vinc amas Seecdeba, SveicariaSi dafuZnebuli gundia, romelic dedamiwis garSemo mogzaurobas mxolod mzis energiaze momuSave TviTmfrinaviT gegmavs. maTi xomaldis saxelia `mzis impulsi 2~ (ixileT zemoT). am 72-metriani (236-futiani) frTis mqone safren aparatSi mxolod erTi piloti eteva. am rols proeqtis liderebi da veterani mogzaurebi – bertran pikardi da andre borSbergi rigrigobiT Seasruleben. pikardi 1999 wels `orbiter 3~-is Tanapiloti iyo. es gaxldaT pirveli sahaero burTi, romelmac dedamiwas Semouara. borSbergi gamanadgurebeli TviTmfrinavis piloti da inJineria. 2015 wlis martSi `mzis impulsi 2~ starts abu dabidan aiRebs da aRmosavleTiT – indoeTisa da CineTisken gaemarTeba. amis Semdeg igi gadakveTs wynar okeanes, amerikas, atlantis okeanes, samxreT evropasa da CrdiloeT afrikas. xomaldi gzadagza daeSveba saCvenebeli RonisZiebebisTvis. okeaneebis gadakveTisas, TviTmfrinavs caSi 5-6 dRemde uwyvetad yofna mouwevs. es niSnavs dRis ganmavlobaSi 8500 metr simaRleze asvlas. am dros TviTmfrinavis frTebze gan-

inJinrebi iseT problemebs awydebian, romlebTanac manamde Sexeba ar hqoniaT

pol markili: inovaciebis redaqtori, The Economist, da misi Technology Quarterly-is redaqtori

lagebuli 17 248 mzis ujredidan xomaldis liTiumionis batareebi daiteneba. RamiT piloti nel-nela daeSveba 1500 metr simaRleze da dazogavs energias oTxi eleqtroZravisTvis, romlebic propelerebs amuSaveben. mzis amosvlasTan erTad, xomaldi kvlav akrefs simaRles. gundis mier Seqmnili prototipi – `mzis impulsi 1~ gamoiyenes im teqnologiebis Sesaqmnelad da dasaxvewad, romlebic saWiroa amocanis Sesasruleblad. gasul wels man gadaufrina aSS-s. rogorc xSirad xdeba, rekordebis damxobis mcdelobisas, proeqts garkveuli winaaRmdegoba Sexvda. 2012 wels, struqturuli testebis dros, meore xomaldis frTis ZiriTadi Zeli gatyda. vinaidan gundi minimaluri wonis misaRwevad maRalteqnologiur karbon-masalebs iyenebs, garkveuli problemebi mosalodneli iyo. rogorc batoni pikardi ambobs, gundis amocanaa Secdomebze swavla da winsvla. xandaxan es velosipedis xelaxla gamogonebas niSnavs. rac Bloodhound SSSC-ma Seqmna, gaxlavT avtomobili, romelic miwis zedapirze moZravi manqanis mier siCqaris axali rekordis dasamyareblad (1000 mili/sT anu 1609 km/sT) Seiqmna. am siCqareze misi oTxi Tvali ufro swrafad itrialebs, vidre nebismieri borbali. am SemTxvevaSi safrTxe is gaxlavT, rom aCqarebis uzarmazarma Zalam, romelic am siswrafeze warmoiqmneba, SeiZleba gamoiwvios borblebis daSla. proeqtis monawile britanulma gundma borblebis Seqmnis ramdenime gza ganixila. sabolood, maTi arCevani SeCerda dizainze, romelic didi sifrTxiliT damzadebul maRali xarisxis alumins iyenebs. 2014 wlis ivnisSi gundis mier Seqmnilma borbalma warmatebiT Caabara gamocda da gaakeTa 174 bruni wamSi, anu is raodenoba, rac saWiroa manqanisTvis samizne siCqaris gasaviTareblad. `rols-roisma~ kidev erTi testi Caatara Tavis erT-erT sacdel adgilas, inglisis qalaq derbiSi. aRniSnuli gamocdis mizani avtomobilis reaqtiuli Zravis ventilaciis sistemis Semowmeba gaxldaT. samive proeqti xorcieldeba ara marto korporaciuli sponsorebis mxardaWeriT, aramed im firmebis daxmarebiT, romlebic proeqts masalebiT, momsaxurebiTa da zog SemTxvevaSi inJinrebiTac ki amarageben. sponsorTa erT-erTi motivi, ra Tqma unda, cnobadobis gazrdaa. Tumca maTi damatebiTi motivacia is

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mecniereba

sikvdili ukidures samxreTSi alan andersoni

samxreT jorjia virTxebs utevs

015 wlis Sua periodSi samxreT jorjiis kunZuli xelaxla unda daibados. am droisTvis igi unda gaTavisufldes milionobiT virTxisagan, romlebic aq kapitan kuks Camohyvnen da kunZulis bunebas 240 wlis manZilze anadgurebdnen. TEAM RAT (`gundi virTxa~) 18 mecnieris, pilotisa da inJinrisagan Sedgeba da miznad isaxavs yvela virTxis ganadgurebas 100 milis (160 km) sigrZis mTian subantarqtikul kunZulze. es momwamlavi burTulebis meSveobiT moxdeba, romlebic sami vertmfrenidan mTel kunZulze gaifanteba. sxva kunZulebi virTxebisagan ukve gaTavisuflda. Tumca, maTgan yvelaze didi – maquari, romelic tasmaniis samxreT aRmosavleTiT mdebareobs, samxreT jorjiis mxolod meaTeds Seadgens. Tu mavne mRrRnelebis ganadgurebis aseTi masStaburi proeqti warmatebiT ganxorcielda, igi biZgs miscems sxva msgavs proeqtebs mTeli msoflios garSemo, radgan dedamiwaze mravladaa adgili, sadac araadgilobrivma jiSebma qaosi da ganadgureba moutanes ekosistemebs. 2013 da 2014 wlebSi gundma samxreT jorjiis virTxebis ori mesamedi gaanadgura. 2015 wels mRrRnelebis mxolod erTi mesamediRa rCeba gasanadgurebeli, anu warmateba axlosaa. saocaria, magram 12 milioni aSS dolaris Rirebulebis proeqts dandiSi dafuZnebuli erTi patara arasamTavrobo organizacia, saxelad `samxreT jorjiis memkvidreobis fondi~ axorcielebs. man proeqtis saxsrebis 90% SemowirulobebiT Seagrova da britaneTis mTavrobisgan mxolod mcire

2015 mokled Google-is prizi Lunar X – 20 milioni dolariT dajildovdeba pirveli gundi, romelic SeZlebs mTvareze robotis dasmas wlis bolomde

daxmareba miiRo. samxreT jorjia britaneTis okeanisgaRma teritoriaa, romelic folklendis kunZulebidan aRmosavleTiT, 850 milis daSorebiT mdebareobs. iq mkvlevrebis garda aravin cxovrobs da isic – mxolod zafxulSi. kunZuli zRvis frinvelTaTvis sasicocxlo mniSvnelobis adgilia. aq binadroben qariSxalebi da albatrosebi, aseve gadaSenebis safrTxis winaSe arsebul frinvelTa ori saxeoba, romelic sxvagan arsad gvxvdeba. erT dros kunZuli xeluxlebel oaziss warmoadgenda, magram mas Semdeg, rac jeims kukma kunZulis irgvliv mobinadre selapebisa da veSapebis siuxvis Sesaxeb informacia gaavrcela, aq viTareba Seicvala. zRvis lomebi sul raRac 50 weliwadSi ganadgurdnen. me-18 saukunis bolos, mxolod erTi zafxulis ganmavlobaSi, aq 100 000-ze meti zRvis lomi mokles. me-20 saukunis dasawyisSi, veSapebze monadireebma kunZulze bazebi daaarses da 60 wlis manZilze 175 000-ze meti veSapi daxoces. am xocva-Jletvis paralelurad, evropelebs Camoyolili virTxebi kunZulze gamravldnen da iq mobinadre frinvelebs daerivnen. gadarCnen mxolod samxreT jorjiis garSemo, patara kunZulebze mcxovrebi frinvelebi, radgan iqamde virTxebma ver miaRwies. nadirobis mkacrma kontrolma Sedegi gamoiRo da zRvis lomebi sakuTar samSoblos daubrundnen. aseve gamravldnen zRvis spiloebi da veSapebi. axla jeri kunZulis frinvelebzea. proeqtis

erT dros kunZuli xeluxlebel oaziss warmoadgenda

gaxlavT, rom proeqtze muSaobisas inJinrebi iseT problemebs awydebian, romlebTanac adre ar hqoniaT Sexeba. Bloodhound SSC-Tan dakavSirebiT mravali sakiTxi gamoukvlevelia. manqanas samxedro-gamanadgurebeli TviTmfrinavis `taifunis~ reaqtiuli Zrava da hibriduli raketa amoZravebs. avtomobils marTavs samefo sahaero Zalebis piloti endi grini, romelic dResdReobiT miwaze ganviTarebuli siCqaris rekordis Semoqmedia (763 mili/sT). man es rekordi 1997 wels, nevadaSi daamyara avtomobiliT Thrust SSC. 2015 wlis Semodgomaze Bloodhound SSC-s waiReben samxreT afrikis hakskin fenSi, sadac grini sakuTari rekordis gaumjobesebas 800 mili/sT miRweviT cdis. Tu yvelaferi gegmis mixedviT warimarTa, 2016 wels igi Seecdeba 1000 m/sT-is miRwevas. nigel maqnaiTisTvis borblebi nerviulobis sagans ar warmoadgens. igi britanuli gundis Quicksilver lideria, romelic wyalze siCqaris rekordis damxobas cdilobs. aRniSnuli rekordi 316 mili/sT-s Seadgens da 1978 wels qen uorbis mier avstraliaSia damyarebuli. batoni maqnaiTi da misi moxaliseTa gun-

lideri da dandis universitetis profesori cxovelTa dacvis sferoSi ambobs, rom proeqtis warmateba damokidebulia im gmir adamianebze, romlebic vertmfrenebs marTaven. yvela maTgani axalzelandielia da sakuTari samSoblos patara kunZulebze inglisidan Semoyvanili virTxebis, kurdRlebisa da yaryumebis ganadgurebis didi gamocdileba aqvs. pilotebs swor xazze win da ukan frena da vertmfrenebze qvemodan damagrebuli uzarmazari konteinerebidan virTxebis sawamlavis Tanabrad mimobneva uxdebaT. arcerTi adgilis gamotoveba ar SeiZleba. warmatebis misaRwevad yvela vertmfrens aqvs danadgari, romelic mis mdebareobas aRricxavs yoveli wamis ganmavlobaSi. vertmfrenis frenisas, Segrovebuli informacia rukaze Tavsdeba da im SemTxvevaSi, Tu romeliRac adgili gamorCa, piloti ukan brundeba da sawamlavs gamotovebul adgilas abnevs. sawamlavi uaRresad `mimzidvelia~. `virTxebi `nugbars~ asobiT metris daSorebiT grZnoben da yvelanairad cdiloben sakvebamde miRwevas~, – ambobs batoni martini. sawamlavis SeWma gardauvali sikvdiliT mTavrdeba. Tu yvelaferi kargad wavida, 2015 wels frinvelebi kunZulze dabrunebas SeZleben. zogierTi maTgani, magaliTad, iSviaTi samxreT jorjiis mwyerCita, savaraudod, ZiriTadi kunZulis irgvliv mdebare patara kunZulebidan male gadabargdeba mTavar kunZulze. sxva egzemplarebs, vTqvaT, qariSxalas mraval saxeobas, samxreT jorjiaze dasabruneblad, SesaZloa, meti dro dasWirdeT, vinaidan isini, rogorc wesi, dabadebis adgils ar scildebian. kunZulis ekosistemis srul aRdgenas savaraudod saukuneebi dasWirdeba, magram am procesis dawyeba brwyinvale magaliTia imisa, Tu rogor SeiZleba adamianis mier warsulSi daSvebuli Secdomebis gamosworeba.n alan andersoni: mecnieri, Jurnalisti da avtori

di hidroTviTmfrinavis Seqmnaze muSaoben, romelic wylis zedapirze gacuravs. xomalds Spey-is reaqtiuli Zrava eqneba da misi meSveobiT axali rekordis, 330 mili/sT-is damyarebas Seecdeba. Quicksilver-is siCqaris zeda zRvari garkveulwilad SezRuduli iqneba inglisis tbebis olqis tba Coniston Water-is zomiT. swored aq Sedgeba wyalze siCqaris rekordis damxobis mcdeloba. 1967 wels am tbaze daiRupa donald qemfbeli, romelic sakuTari siCqaris rekordis (276.3 m/sT) damxobas cdilobda. misi Bluebird KK7 haerSi aiwia da daiSala. swored daRupuli qemfbelis xomaldis dizainerebTan Sexvedram gauRviva baton maqnaiTs survili Tavisi proeqti wamoewyo. gundi imedovnebs, rom misi hidroxomaldi mzad iqneba 2015 wels, xolo momdevno wels rekordis damxobas Seecdeba. qemfbelis bedi niSania imisa, Tu raoden saxifaTo SeiZleba iyos rekordebis damxoba. ultraTanamedrove teqnologiisa da saukeTeso inJinrebis arsebobis miuxedavad, adamianis survili, iyos ufro swrafi da wavides ufro Sors, kvlav amoucnob midamoebSi Tavgadasavlad rCeba. n

msoflio 2015

jujis weliwadi

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mecniereba

uwodes, aqvs dedamiwis teqtonikuri platformis gasaocrad msgavsi teqtonikuri agebuleba. damatebiTi saintereso Sedarebebi SesaZloa gaoliver mortoni keTdes plutonsa da qarons Soris, vinaidan iseve, rogorc dedamiwis mTvare, qaronic misi mSoblisa da mecnierebi ucnaur axal samyaroebs mesame planetis Zveli Sejaxebis Sedegad warmoqmniaRmoaCenen, Tumca, maT SesaZloa zogilad miiCneva. plutonsa da qarons Soris arsebulma erTi nacnobi niSan-Tviseba hqondeT gansxvavebebma SesaZloa naTeli mohfinon imas, Tu ra xdeba amgvari Sejaxebebis dros, aseve, Tu ra gansxrbitaluri meqanika erT-erTi im iSviaTi vavebebia dedamiwasa da mTvares Soris. yvelaze STmecnierebaTagania, romelsac zusti wiambeWdavi Sedarebebi SesaZloa plutonsa da cereras naswarmetyveleba SeuZlia. 2015 wlis 14 Soris gakeTdes, romelic asteroiduli sartylis ivliss, aSS-is kosmosuri sadguri New Houmsxvilesi ciuri sxeulia. rizons Caufrens plutons. es yvelaze Sori manZili seresi, romelic 1801 wels aRmoaCines, Tavdapiriqneba, romelic dedamiwidan gaSvebul Tanamgzavrs velad planetad miiCneoda. Tumca, mas Semdeg, rac msgadaulaxavs. 50 000 km/sT (31 000 m/sT) siCqariT moZgavs orbitebSi sxva ciuri sxeulebi aRmoaCines, igi ravi sadguri planetis yinulovan zedapirs 10 000 `daaqveiTes~ da asteroidad monaTles. mogvianebiT, km-is siaxloves Caufrens. misi kamerebi SeZleben 2006 wels, saerTaSoriso astronomiulma kavSirma plutonze Senobebis zomis obieqtebis dafiqsire(IAU) kvlav Secvala gadawyvetileba da seresi axal bas. sadguri aseve Seiswavlis plutonis anomaliujuja planetebs miakuTvna. es cota damabneveli iyo, rad didi mTvaris `qarons~. mxolod odnav naklebi vinaidan seresi aSkarad mxolod asteroidi gaxldaT. sizustiT SeiZleba imis winaswarmetyveleba, rom bolodroindelma dakvirvebebma aCvena, rom seresi amgvarad mopovebuli monacemebi, romlebic dedamigasaocrad yinuliania da SesaZloa sakmaod gansxwaze 4 miliardi kilometris siSoreze gamoigzavneba, vavdebodes sxva asteroidebisgan. arsebobs damauaRresad saintereso iqneba mecnierTaTvis. am injerebeli argumenti, rom seresi Seiqmna mzisgan gacteress mxolod plutoni ar gamoiwvevs – mopovebuilebiT ufro Sors, vidre is dRes mdebareobs. sent li monacemebi aseve garkveul sinaTles mohfens sxva luisSi, vaSingtonis universitetSi moRvawe mecngamokvleul Tu gamoukvlevel ciur sxeulebs. ieri bil maqqinoni ambobs, rom seress ara mxolod mzis sistemis Sida meqanizmi da plutonis zoma aqvs, aramed SesamecnierTa enTuziazmi ucvlelia, Zloa plutonis msgavsi warmoSoba samyaroebi 2015 wels Tumca igives ver vityviT imaze, Tu da bunebac gaaCndes. 14 ivliss... rogori Sexeduleba aqvT specialistebs mzis sistemis irgvliv. 1930 Sen ver iqnebi cerera iupiteri wels, plutonis aRmoCenidan 2006 amas erT dros sulelur idead wlamde, roca New Horizons gauSves, Seracxavdnen. arsebobda varaudi, ciuri sxeuli miiCneoda mzis sisterom planetebi nel-nela moZraoben dedamiwa mis mecxre planetad. kosmosuri TavianTi orbitis gaswvriv, mzisxomaldis gaSvebidan ramdenime TveSi gan TiTqmis ucvlel manZilze. masaturni es Sexeduleba Seicvala. plutonis gram gasuli aTi wlis ganmavlobamezoblad aRmoaCines ramdenime sxva Si gamoCnda, rom es mosazrebac ciuri sxeuli. imis nacvlad, rom garkveul cvlilebebs saWiroebs. momxdariyo nacnobi planetebis siis rogorc Cans, adreul mzis sistegazrda, saerTaSoriso astronomimaSi planetaruli orbitebi xSiruranis orbita ulma kavSirma (IAU) maT `juja planad icvlidnen mdebareobas. zogi etebi~ uwoda da am `areulobaSi~ fiqrobs, rom yvelaze didi planeplutonic zemoT aRniSnul axal ta am sistemaSi – iupiteri TavdaplanetebTan daajgufa. pirvelad spiralurad miuaxlovNew Horizons-is plutonTan miaxda mzes, xolo Semdeg saturnTan neptunis orbita loeba da Seswavla pirveli SemTxveva erTad ukan daixia da dRevandel iqneba, roca am „juja planetebze“ ase orbitaSi Cadga. amgvari didi axlodan dakvirveba moxdeba. Tumprogresi momcro zomis ciur sxeplutoni ca, warsulSi adamians ukve hqonda ulebs sxvadasxva mimarTulebiT garkveuli Sexeba „juja planetasgafantavda, da SesaZloa, planTan“. 1989 wels, Voyager 2-ma tritons etebi, romlebic erT dros erTad Caufrina, romelic amJamad neptunis mdebareobdnen, dRes didi manZiliT udidesi mTvarea. Tumca, adre, albaT, „juja planeta“ iyvnen erTmaneTisgan daSorebuli – iseve, rogorc gaxldaT iseTive, rogoric plutoni. rogorc maSinseresi da plutoni. deli monacemebidan vigebT, tritoni ucnauri plaramdenime TviT adre, vidre New Horizons pluneta iyo – laqebiani, da bevrisTvis gasakvirad, masze tons Cauvlis, gacilebiT nela moZravi kosmosuri moqmedi geizerebi SeiniSneboda. xomaldi saxelwodebiT Dawn nel-nela Cadgeba sereamgvarad, plutonidan miRebuli suraTebis Sessis garSemo orbitaSi da daiwyebs dakvirvebebis xangrZliv programas. rogori iqneba seresi axlowavlis didi da saintereso nawili SesaZloa misi dan? rogoric plutoni, romelic Zalian axlosaa Sedareba iyos tritonTan, romlis `Signeuloba~ mzesTan? rogoric asteroidi, romelic yinuliTaa neptunis talRebiT Tbeba. amgvari Sedarebebi plandafaruli? rogoric iupiteris erT-erTi yinuliani etaruli mecnierebis sul ufro mdidari aspeqtia, mTvare? Tu rogoric am yvelafris nazavi? Tu saerromelic naTels hfens msgavsad Seqmnili ciuri sxTod gansxvavebuli?.. orbitebis winaswar gansazeulebis gansxvavebebs da aseve msgavsebebs poulobs Rvra SesaZlebelia, magram kosmosSi, 60 wlis gamocerTi SexedviT srulebiT gansxvavebul obieqtebs dilebis miuxedavad, am orbitebze moZravi ciuri Soris. amrigad, iupiteris mTvares, romelic mecsxeulebi moulodnelobebiTaa savse. n nierebma 2014 wels aRmoaCines da `yinuliani evropa~

2015 mokled saerTaSoriso astronomiuli kavSiris mier Catarebuli konkursi SearCevs saxelebs 350 egzoplanetisTvis

oliver mortoni: brifingebis redaqtori, The Economist

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mecniereba energiuli tempiT Tanmimdevrulad dalagebuli genomes raodenoba

1,620,000 952,000 229,000

2014

2015 mokled safuZveli Caeyara msoflioSi umaRles mzis koSks, romelic gamoimuSavebs sakmaris energias arizonaSi 150 000 saxlis uzrunvelsayofad

422,000

2015

2016

gaSifruli genebi nataSa loderi, Cikago

amdeni genetikuri monacemi da maTi mravalmxrivi gamoyeneba

014 wels SesaZlebeli gaxda adamianis genomis TanmimdevrobiT dalageba. es moaswavebs 2015 wels kidev ufro meti genetikuri informaciis gamoaSkaravebas. Tumca, amave dros, ibadeba SekiTxva, Tu raSi unda gamoiyenon moZiebuli monacemebi. genebis Tanmimdevrobis damdgen axal danadgars, romelic san diegoSi dafuZnebulma kompania `iluminam~ Seqmna, SeuZlia yovel 25 wuTSi Seqmnas genomi. SedarebisTvis, pirveli adamianuri genomis rukis Seqmnas 10 welze meti dro dasWirda da 3 miliardi dolari dajda. proeqti mxolod mecnierebisTvis ar iqneba sasixarulo. axali Taobis genomis Tanmimdevrobis teqnologias SesaZloa farTo gamoyeneba hqondes. ufro iafi da swrafi Tanmimdevrobis dadgena niSnavs medicinaSi revoluciis ganxorcielebas, superbaqteriebis winaaRmdeg axal brZolas, sakvebis usafrTxoebas, kriminalistikis ganviTarebas, veluri bunebis danaSaulis winaaRmdeg brZolis gaumjobesebas da soflis meurneobis kuTxiT gamoyenebas. damdeg wels britaneTi daiwyebs sruli genomis Tanmimdevrobis warmoebas 100 000-ze meti pacientisTvis, romelzec erovnuli jandacvis samsaxuri zrunavs. sxva qveynis mTavrobebic msgavsi mimarTulebiT fiqroben. britanelTa mcdeloba aRsaniSnavia imiT, rom igi didi doziT daexmareba pacientebs. erT-erTi amgvari pacientia Selbi valinti, romelsac cxovrebis pirveli Tveebidan amoucnobi daavadeba aRmoaCnda da rva wlis asakSi sicocxlisTvis ibrZoda. mxolod mas Semdeg, rac moxda misi mTliani genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgena, farda aexada burusiT mocul avadmyofobas. Selbis genemxolod SesaZlebeliaâ&#x20AC;Ś gvineis matlis avadmyofoba gaxdes yvavilis Semdeg meore daavadeba, romelic aRmoifxvreba. fizikis dargSi nobelis premia gadaeces qals â&#x20AC;&#x201C; pirvelad, 52 wlis ganmavlobaSi.

nataSa loderi: aSS-is jandacvis korespondenti, The Economist

malariisa da ebolas vaqcinebi, romelsac yvela didi xania elis, Seiqmnas da gamoiyenon afrikaSi.

2017

Source: Illumina wyaro: Illumina

tikuri anomalia aRmoaCnda. genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgeniT, eqimebma SeZles iseTi wamlis moZieba, romelmac misi cxovreba Secvala. yvela pacienti ver iqneba Selbisnairi iRbliani. Tumca, zemoT naxsenebi analizi wertils dausvams gauTavebel samedicino `odiseas~, romelic iSviaTi daavadebebis mqone bavSvebis mSobelTa xvedria. `iluminas~ prezidenti fransis desouza ambobs, rom sruli genomebis raodenoba, romelTa Tanmimdevrobis dadgenac moxdeba, 2015 wels gaormagdeba (ix. diagrama). pirvelebi, vinc iafi da swrafi genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgeniT isargebleben, fexmZime qalebi iqnebian. sruliad Seicvleba prenataluri diagnozi, vinaidan genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgena saSualebas iZleva dedis sisxlis nimuSebSi Canasaxovani anomaliebi aRmoaCinon. amis meSveobiT aRar iqneba saWiro invaziuri (da potenciurad saziano) testebis Catareba iseTi aSlilobis dasadgenad, rogoricaa, magaliTad, daunis sindromi. batoni desouza ambobs, rom ori-sami wlis ganmavlobaSi arainvaziuri testebi saSualo riskis mqone fexmZimobis dros normad gadaiqceva, xolo 3-5 wlis Semdeg moxdeba axalSobili bavSvebis genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgena dabadebisTanave. imave droSi rutinuli gaxdeba simsivneebis genomebis Tanmimdevrobis dadgena. es garRveva aT weliwadSi kibos fataluri daavadebidan qronikul daavadebad gadaaqcevs.

yvelaferi genomis Tanmimdevrobaa 2015 wels, genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgenis potencialis gamosayeneblad, mravali axali jgufi imuSavebs. kriminalistebi aRmoaCenen, rom SesaZlebelia ramdenime adamianis identificireba Sereuli siTxeebidan, romlebic danaSaulis adgilidan iqneba amoRebuli. 2015 wels, afrikaSi savele testebi daiwyeba genomis Tanmimdevrobis ganmsazRvreli mobiluri aparatiT, romelic mecnierebs malariis winaaRmdeg brZolaSi daexmareba. aparats saxelad Q-POC mxolod 15 wuTi sWirdeba sisxlis wveTis Sesaswavlad, misi mainficirebeli parazitis dasadgenad da imis gansasazRvrad, Tu ra donis winaaRmdegoba Sexvdeba wamals daavadebasTan gasamklaveblad. axlaxan aRmoCenili faqti, rom nawlavis baqteria gavlenas axdens simsuqneze, aseve dietis meSveobiT misi Secvlis SesaZlebloba, niSnavs imas, rom mxolod drois faqtoria rodis Seitanen kompaniebi genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgenas wonis daklebis programebSi. genomis Tanmimdevrobis dadgenis gamoyenebas bolo ar uCans. n

mecniereba

msoflio 2015

123

patara nabijebi, didi cvlilebebi

amecniero fantastikis JanrSi gavrcelebulia azri, rom igi ufro mets gvpirdeba, vidre es realobaSi SeiZleba moxdes. amis martivi gamoxatvaa SekiTxva: `sad aris Cemi mfrinavi manqana?~ magram cvlilebebi nabij-nabij, patara nawilebad xdeba, da Tu ar mivadevnebT Tvalyurs, SesaZloa moulodnelad aRmovaCinoT ukve momxdari seriozuli cvlileba. mfrinavi manqanebis gamoCena, albaT, jer adrea (Tumca, savaraudod, es arc ise Soreuli momavlis saqme unda iyos), magram umZRolo manqanebis teqnologia xorcSesxmis zRvarzea. 2015 wlidan umZRolo manqanebi legaluri gaxdeba britaneTis zogierT gzaze. miuxedavad imisa, rom am manqanebSi mZRoli unda imyofebodes, romelic saWes saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi miujdeba, es avtomobilebi mniSvnelovani wingadadgmuli nabijia mTlianad avtonomiuri manqanebisken. isini imarTeba kamerebis, radarebisa da jipiesis meSveobiT da dRevandel manqanebTan SedarebiT, ufro usafrTxo da ekonomiuri iqneba. maT mier ganxorcielebul gadaadgilebebze gacilebiT naklebi dro daixarjeba. umZRolo manqanebis teqnologiis arseboba ar niSnavs imas, rom amgvar manqanebs mivawydebiT. mravali Cvengani ar iCqarebs sakuTari avtomanqanis marTvaze uaris Tqmas. teqnologiis mimarT sazogadoebrivi damokidebuleba didwilad gansazRvravs robotebis Sesaxeb Cvens aRqmas. robotebi kidev erTi sferoa, romelmac progresi ganicada patara, Cumi nabijebiT da ara xmauriani aRmoCenebiT. avtonomiuri Tu Soridan kontrolirebadi robotebi Cumad iWrebian sazogadoebriv garemoSi. saSiSi ieris mqone dacvis roboti Knightscope K5 Seudgeba silikonis velis qemfusis patrulirebas 2015 wels. misi Semqmnelebi imedovneben, rom es nabiji am robotis rTul urbanul monakveTebze gamoyenebis gavrcelebas xels Seuwyobs. marTalia igi SeuiaraRebelia, magram K5 aRWurvilia monitoringis sistemebiT da aqvs qcevis analizis unari realur drosa da sivrceSi. mas aseve SeuZlia qimiuri, biologiuri da radiaciuli safrTxeebis dafiqsireba. meore roboti, saxelad Jibo gvpirdeba gaxdes pirveli ojaxis roboti. es gaxlavT patara socialuri mowyobiloba, romelic TviTon ar gadaadgildeba, magram SeuZlia ijdes magidaze da saxis amocnobisa da emociuri gamoxatvis teqnologiebis meSveobiT, monawileoba miiRos socialur urTierTobaSi. robotTan saubari erTia, xolo sxva adamianis mier Seni saubris gageba, romelic srulebiT gansxvavebul enaze saubrobs – meore. xelovnuri inteleqtis kvlevis erT-erT mTavar mizans realur droSi saubris Targmna warmoadgens. ramdenime aTwleulis unayofo Sromis Semdeg, rogorc iqna, amis misaRwevad saWiro instrumentebi gvaqvs. saubris aRqmis teqnologiis winsvlisa da e . w. `Rrma swavlis~

nervuli qselebis meSveobiT, Skype Translator ukve gamoCndeba betaversiis saxiT 2015 wels. `skaipisa~ da `maikrosoftis~ es erToblivi proeqti erTaderTi ar gaxlavT telekomunikaciebis bazris am mzard sferoSi. sagulisxmoa, rom erT-erTi faqtori, romelmac biZgi misca komunikaciis am mimarTulebis ganviTarebas, gaxlavT omebi avRaneTsa da eraySi – elementarulad, ar arseboben Tarjimnebi sakmarisi raodenobiT. ironiulia, rom swored omi xdeba biZgi, romlis meSveobiTac unda davZlioT adamianTa Soris srulfasovani komunikaciis damyarebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi barieri.

horizontze sakuTari Tavis gagebac ki sakmaod rTulia, da warmoidgineT, ramdenad Znelia samyaros gageba. imisaTvis, rom gaviazroT Cveni adgili samyaroSi, saWiroa SevxedoT yvelafers umciresi da umsxvilesi masStabiT – subatomuri donidan Ria kosmosamde da kidev ufro Sors. 2015 wels, istoriis manZilze umsxvilesi samecniero instrumenti miviwyebis Semdeg aqtiur gamoyenebas ubrundeba. 2012 wels, didi xnis win navaraudevi higsis bozonis aRmoCenis Semdeg, didi adronis kolaideri (LHC) ar funqcionirebda, radgan mimdinareobda misi modifikacia – kidev ufro Zlieri sadeteqcio simZlavreebis Sematebis mizniT. arsebobs didi molodini, rom bolos da bolos didi adronis kolaideri SeZlebs `supersimetriis~ mtkicebulebis mopovebas. es iqneba farTo nabiji win, amJamad miRebuli elementaruli nawilakebis fizikis standartuli modelis Semdeg. erTi mxriv, Tu kolaideri ver moipovebs supersimetriis mtkicebulebas, amiT fizikis prognozirebis Zala dadasturdeba. meore mxriv, supersimetriis verdadastureba axali simZlavreebis kolaideriT, aseve saintereso iqneba mecnierTaTvis. cota ufro `gareT~ Tu gavixedavT – magaliTad, mzis sistemis sazRvarze, davinaxavT, rom Cveni mzis garSemo yvelaze gvian aRmoCenil planetas kosmosuri xomaldi estumreba. cxrawliani misiis Semdeg, New Horizons ivlisSi plutons Cauvlis (ix. oliver mortonis statia am seqciaSi). Tumca, Tu yuradRebiT ar iqnebiT, Zalian advilad gamogrCebaT xomaldis plutonTan Cavla, vinaidan New Horizons Zalian swrafad moZraobs. miuxedavad didi siCqarisa, kosmosuri xomaldi plutons da mis mTvareebs daakvirdeba. plutonis statusi ganxilvis sagania. oficialurad, igi 2006 wels „juja planetad“ gamoacxades, Tumca mas mravali mxardamWeri hyavs mecnierTa Soris, sazogadoebaSi, da erT dRes SesaZloa misi statusi isev planetis statuss gauTanabrdes. saintereso faqtia is, rom klaid tombafis ferfli, romelmac plutoni aRmoaCina, New Horizons-zea. n

samecniero fantastikis Janris mwerali alaster reinoldsi msjelobs imaze, rac male mecnierebis faqtad iqceva

cocxal droSi xmovani saubris Targmna xelovnuri inteleqtis kvlevis erT-erTi mTavari mizania. aTwleulebis ganmavlobaSi, fuWi mcdelobebis Semdeg, amis miRwevis instrumentebi ukve gvaqvs

უკვე საქართველოშია

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მთისა და წიწვოვანი ტყის კრისტალური ჰაერი კომფოტული ოთახები საუკეთესო ხედით უმაღლესი დონის მომსახურება ბორჯომის სამკურნალო წყლები გამაჯანსაღებელი კლინიკა

• • • •

სავარჯიშო დარბაზი ბავშთა გასართობი ცენტრი სპა მომსახურება საცურაო აუზი

borjomi.rixos.com; FB: Rixos Borjomi; E-mail: borjomi@rixos.com; Tel: 0322 29 22 92; 0322 24 41 49

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kultura amave seqciaSi: zRapruli moda 126 politikuri karikaturebi 127 mxolod SesaZlebelia... 127

„alisa saocrebaTa qveyanaSi“ 150 wlisaa 128 devid bleini: magiis momavali 129

luvri sparseTis yureSi fiameta roko, abu dabi

axali kulturis centris dasawyisi

bu dabiSi luvris SesaniSnavi gumbaTovani saxuravi erTmaneTSi Camjdari 70-toniani foladis nawilebisganaa damzadebuli. miuxedavad amisa, uzarmazari saxuravi mnaxvelTaTvis arSiebian, natif da fafuk tilos hgavs. pritckeris jildos mflobeli frangi arqiteqtori Jan novo, romelic Senobis avtoria, cnobilia imiT, rom mas qveynis sulis danaxva da misTvis fizikuri formis miniWeba SeuZlia. yataris axali erovnuli muzeumis dizaini, romelic aseve mas ekuTvnis, farTod gavrcelebul adgilobriv udabnos vards efuZneba, xolo CineTis erovnuli xelovnebis muzeumis dizains, romelzec arqiteqtori amJamad muSaobs, cifri erTis Cinuri simbolo daedeba safuZvlad. abu dabis luvris saxuravis STagoneba man urTierTgadajaWvuli palmis foTlebisgan miiRo, romlebsac sparseTis yures qveynebSi tradiciulad saxuravis masalad iyeneben. baton novos undoda, rom mzisgan gaxunebuli udabnos atmosferoSi misi dizaini `wvimasaviT msubuqi~ yofiliyo. abu dabis luvri mnaxvelebs pirvel STabeWdilebas Seuqmnis axali kulturuli ubnis Sesaxeb, romelsac arabeTis gaerTianebuli saemiroebis mmarTveli al-nahianis ojaxi ukve aTwleulze metia gegmavs. parizis erTi meoTxedis zomis saadiaTis kunZulis kulturuli ubani abu dabis Crdilo-dasavleT sanapiroze mdebare qviSis samkuTxa kunZulze iqmneba. mTeli msoflios masStabiT daaxloebiT ori duJini amgvari zona keTdeba. saadiaTis kunZulis kulturul ubans grZeli plaJebi, vilebi, mravalbiniani saxlebi da golfis masiuri moedani daamSvenebs. igi gadatvirTul qalaqs saSualebas miscems, gaizardos da ganitvirTos. ubnis mTavari mimzidveloba

mSenebare oazisi

sami axali muzeumi iqneba, romelTagan pirveli – abu dabis luvri, 2015 wlis bolos gaixsneba. sami muzeumidan meore – zaiedis erovnuli muzeumi, arabeTis gaerTianebuli emiratebis istorias mieZRvneba, misi damaarseblis – Seix zaied bin sulTan al-nahianis cxovrebis CaTvliT. norman fosteris mier daproeqtebuli muzeumi, romlis koncefciis SeqmnaSi britaneTis muzeumi iRebda monawileobas, 2016 wels gaixsneba. mesame muzeumi iqneba „gugenhaim abu dabi“, romelic frenk gerim daaproeqta. misi mizania „gugenhaim abu dabi“ axlo aRmosavleTSi Tanamedrove xelovnebis centraluri galerea gaxdes. muzeumis gaxsna zaiedis erovnuli muzeumis gaxsnidan erTi wlis Semdeg igegmeba. ganviTarebis momdevno etapi, romelic 2020 wlamde gagrZeldeba, moicavs saadiaTis kunZulze sazRvao muzeumisa da zaha hadidis mier daproeqtebuli SesrulebiTi xelovnebis centris gaxsnas. es Zeglebi im gegmis nawils warmoadgenen, romelic 2030 wlisTvis navTobze dafuZnebuli ekonomikis mqone abu dabis globaluri kulturis centrad gadaqcevas gulisxmobs. magaliTi, romlis mixedviTac abu dabis luvri Seiqmna, Zalian didi warmatebis mqone gugenhaimis muzeumi gaxlavT, espaneTis CrdiloeTiT mdebare qalaq bilbaoSi, romelic 1997 wels gaixsna. mTavrobaTaSorisma SeTanxmebam, romelic 2007 wels gaformda da romelsac safrangeTis mxridan xeli moawera prezidentma Jak Sirakma, axalaRmocenebul instituts neba darTo, 30 wlis ganmavlobaSi luvris saxeli gamoeyenebina. am SeTanxmebis mixedviT, abu dabis luvri rCevebs miiRebs franguli muzeumebis saagentosgan, romelic axali organizaciaa, da romelSic 12 franguli kulturis erTeulia gaerTianebuli. TanamSromlobis farglebSi moewyoba gamofenebi, sadac parizis luvrisa da sparseTis yuris navTobis fulis wyalobiT gamoifineba naTxovari xelovnebis nimuSebi. gaweuli momsaxurebisTvis abu dabi fran-

2015 mokled es didi welia jeims bondisTvis: entoni horovici axal, oficialur romans aqveynebs, romelSic moqmedeba 1950ian wlebSi xdeba. ian flemingis romanebi komiqsebad gamoicema da bondis axal films gadaiReben

fiameta roko: wignebisa da xelovnebis redaqtori, The Economist

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modis erTguli mimdevrebi ivon raiani

mnaxvelebis mosazidad muzeumebi podiumad iqceva

Tavrebuli. am gamofenas `makquinis samSobloSi dabrunebasac~ uwodeben. `veluri silamazis~ tipis gamofenebi mniSvnelovani gzaa naRdi fulis mosagroveblad. aseve SesaZloa, efeqtiani saSualeba iyos axali auditoriebis mosazidad. Sous mimdinareobisas `metropoliten muzeumSi~ 23 aTasze meti adamiani gawevrianda, rac orjer meti iyo Sous wina periodis – 2010 wlis ricxvze. frangi dizaineris – Jan pol goties namuSevrebis retrospeqtiva msoflios masStabiT daaxloebiT milionma adamianma naxa 2011 wels, misi pirveli gaxsnidan,

lebis ganmavlobaSi muzeumebi maRali xelovnebis taZrebad miiCneoda, romlebic Sors idga popkulturis impulsurobisa da daudevrobisgan. Tumca, es midgoma Seicvala, roca maT xalxis mosazidad sakuTari sivrce podiums dauTmes. modis gamofenebi muzeumis zog mfarvels ar moewoneba, magram udavod did Semosavals moitans. es aris erT-erTi mizezi, risTvisac 2015 wlis martSi, londonis `viqtoriasa da albertis muzeumi~ kars gauRebs gamofenas `aleqsander makquini: veluri silamaze~. Tavdapirvelad, 2011 wels, es Sou niu-iorkis xelovnebis `metropoliten muzeumSi~ daidga da muzeumis istoriaSi erT-erT yvelaze popularul gamofenad iqca. oTxi Tvis ganmavlobaSi, roca muzeumi gamofenas maspinZlobda, igi 660 aTasze metma adamianma moinaxula. Sou ganaxlda da gafarTovda `viqtoriasa da albertis muzeumis~ sivrcis Sesabamisad, aseve imisTvis, rom makquinis namuSevrebis sxvadasxva elementebisTvis gaesva xazi. londonSi dabadebuli dizaineri, romelic 2010 wels, 40 wlis asakSi gardaicvala, modis samyaros erT-erTi yvelaze originaluri, provokaciuli da mdidari warmosaxvis mqone praqtikosi dizaineri iyo. `veluri silamaze~ farTod mimoixilavs mis karieras, 1992 wlis sakurso koleqciidan dawyebuli, misi ukanaskneli, dausrulebeli, 2010 wlis Semodgoma-zamTris koleqciiT dam- makqvinis modelebma frTebi Seisxes

2015 mokled ixareT: `varskvlavuri omebis“ seria aTwliani pauzis, xolo `iuruli periodis parkis~ – 14-wliani Sesvenebis Semdeg ganaxldeba

gul mxares miliard evroze odnav naklebs ($1.26 miliards) gadauxdis. gegma ambiciuria. abu dabis luvri ar iqneba franguli muzeumis filiali an Tundac naxevradavtonomiuri instituti luvris brendiT. misi mizania, iyos pirveli universaluri muzeumi arabul samyaroSi, romelSic Tavs moiyris aTaswleulebis ganmavlobaSi sxvadasxva civilizaciis mier Seqmnili nimuSebi. `igi iqneba mTeli msoflios muzeumi mTeli msofliosaTvis~, – ambobs rita aon-abdo, abu dabis turizmisa da kulturis organos (TCA) xelmZRvaneli. da sad moiZebneba ukeTesi adgili amgvari institutis Sesaqmnelad, Tu ara evropisa da aziis gasayarze?

udabnos qariSxali 2014 wlis ivnisSi, parizSi gaimarTa gamofena `abu dabis luvri: muzeumis dabadeba~, romelzec warmodgenili iyo xelovnebisa da istoriis nimuSebis nakrebi: romaeli oratoris marmarilos qandakeba, mocekvave Sivas figura, belinis „madona da yrma“, siTvumblis cxra fila, me-19 saukunis parizis foto da indielTa miniaturebis koleqcia, romelic filmebis prodiuser jeims aivorisgan SeiZines. Tumca, am gamofenam gegmis sruli xedva ver gadmosca. namuSevrebi Zalian SeuTavsebeli iyo, Tanac, maT

monrealSi. katalogisa da suvenirebis gayidvebis CaTvliT, warmatebul Sous ramdenime milioni dolaris motana SeuZlia. modis gamofenebze amJamad gansxvavebuli mosazrebebi arsebobs – gansakuTrebiT, roca reklamasa da xelovnebas Soris zRvari Zalian bundovani xdeba da Sous sagani SesaZloa dawesebulebis sponsori gaxdes. niu-iorkis gugenhaimis muzeumi farTod gaakritikes, roca italieli dizaineris jorjo armanis namuSevrebis retrospeqtivis gamofenis Semdeg man muzeums 15 milioni dolari gadasca. potenciuri sponsorebi ufro frTxilad swiraven fuls muzeumebs. metwilad, sakuTar finansebs kulturul sasaxleebSi abandeben. magaliTad, `pradas~ fondi gazafxulze sakuTar axal muzeums gaxsnis milanSi, riTac fexdafex miyveba `lui vitonis~ fondis frenk geris axal saxls parizSi. 2015 wels modis moyvarulebi ganebivrebulni iqnebian arCevaniT: maisSi, `metropoliten muzeumSi~ gaixsneba gamofena, romelic misi kostiumebis institutisa da aziis xelovnebis departamentis erToblivi namuSevaria da warmoadgens Cinuri kostiumebis, naxatebisa da qandakebebis erTobliv eqspozicias. garda amisa, `viqtoriasa da albertis muzeumis~ ori Sou, romelmac londonelebi aRafrTovana, 2015 wels turneSi gaemgzavreba da sxva qveynebs gaaxarebs. holivudis kostiumebis gamofena los-anjelesSi, akademiis muzeumSi iqneba warmodgenili, xolo devid bouis namuSevrebis retrospeqtiva, maT Soris misi Ziggy Stardust kostiumi, parizidan melburnSi imogzaurebs da `oqros weliwads~ holandiaSi daasrulebs.n ivon raiani: aRmasrulebeli redaqtori, `msoflio 2015 wels~

Soris kavSiri saTanadod ganmartebuli ar gaxldaT. uaresic – frangulma memarcxene gazeTma `liberasionma~ gamoaqveyna Seix sulTan bin Tahnun al-naianis saCivris werili luvris maSindeli direqtoris henri loiretis saxelze, romelic adasturebda, rom am yvelafers Soris saTanado kavSiri ar iyo. frangebi qedmaRlebi iyvnen da dapirebebi ar Seasrules. abu dabi nawyeni darCa. frangebi swrafad Seudgnen wyenis gaqarvebas. axla, muzeumis monaxazis gaxsniT, isini cdilobdnen Zveli usiamovnebis ukan motovebas. luvrSi axali direqtori dainiSna – Jan-luk martinezi. igi daaxloebiT TveSi erTxel dafrinavs sparseTis yureSi, rom darwmundes, yvelaferi kargad mimdinareobs Tu ara. misi aRmasrulebeli direqtori – hervi barbareti, didi albaTobiT, abu dabis luvris pirveli direqtori gaxdeba 2015 wels. samasi naxatisa da xelovnebis sxva nimuSebis pirvel wyebas Soris, romelic safrangeTis muzeumebidan abu dabiSi gaigzavneba, luvri daTanxmda misi erT-erTi uZvirfasesi nimuSis (fotoze marjvniv) Txovebas abu dabiSi muzeumis gaxsnis gamofenisTvis – leonardo da vinCis mier Sesrulebuli ludoviko sforcas meuRlis – lukrecia krivelis portreti, romelic cnobilia, rogorc `mSvenieri feroniera~. n

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qaRaldgamoclili karikaturebi kevin (`kal~) kalaheri, baltimori

mosalodnelia politikuri satiris meti piqselizacia

olo wlebSi karikaturistebi mTeli msofliodan gansakuTrebuli gamowvevebis winaSe aRmoCndnen. dasavleTSi gazeTebis raodenoba Semcirda, aRmosavleTSi religiuri mgrZnobeloba gaizarda, amitomac warmoudgenlad garTulda karikaturistebisTvis imis gansazRvra, Tu sad gaavlon zRvari. pakistanis yvelaze cnobili karikaturistis – sabir nazarisTvis 2015 weli SesaZloa sulac am zRvris dasasrulad iqces. nazaris zustma da mwvave komentarebma misi qveynis politikaze (naCvenebia marjvniv), romlebic Friday Times-Si da Express Tribune-Si ibeWdeba, didi yuradReba miiqcia. bolo ramdenime wlis ganmavlobaSi msgavsi CanaxatebiT aRSfoTebuli eqstremistebi Express Tribune-s Svidjer daesxnen Tavs. erT-erTi Tavdasxma konkretulad sabir nazaris redaqtorze ganxorcielda da misi mZRolis sicocxle imsxverpla.

turists mTeli msoflios masStabiT, vinc gadawyvita qaRaldis gareSe muSaoba. isini ZiriTad platformad internets gamoiyeneben da iq gamofenen TavianT namuSevrebs, romlebsac internetis swrafad mzardi auditoria naxavs. aSS-Si „uqaRaldoTa“ mimdinareobas met borsi xelmZRvanelobs. igi memarcxene oriaTasianelia, romelsac bevri am sferoSi saukeTesod miiCnevs. miuxedavad amisa, man ver SeinarCuna samsaxuri karikaturistTa tradiciul adgilas – `metropolitenis~ yoveldRiur gazeTSi. aSS-is erovnul yoveldRiur gazeTebSi 1980 wlis Semdeg karikaturistTa 60 procentis samsaxuri gauqmda. gasakviri arc aris, radganac samuSao adgilebi, zogadad, Wirs. Tumca, borsi karikaturis samyaroSi axal talRas udgas saTaveSi. igi onlainkarikaturistia. Tu adre vebgverdebi Zunwobdnen, axla ufro met karikaturists uxdian regularul honorars. es tendencia wamoiwyo vaSingtonis onlain axali ambebis gverdma `politiko~, roca 2007 wels samsaxurSi aiyvana pulitceris prizis mflobeli karikaturisti met vurkeri. borsi daasaqma vebgverdma `medium~, rogorc misi karikaturisti da komiqsebis koleqciis The Nib redaqtori. qveynis bevr gamocemaSi dabeWdili sakuTari namuSevrebis (ixileT marcxniv) Seqmnis garda, borsi sxvebis mier Sesrulebuli SekveTili karikaturebis yoveldRiur koleqcias kurirebs. igi The Nib-is saSualebiT cdilobs mxatvarTa jansaRi nazavis warmodgenas, romlebsac, mis msgavsad, gauWirdaT tradiciuli gazeTebis samyaroSi sakuTari namuSevrebis dabeWdva. mimdinare wlis ganmavlobaSi igi satirikosTa momavali TaobisTvis mzardi platformisa da Semosavlis Seqmnas Seecdeba.

mzardi muqaris pirobebSi nazari fiqrobs, rom 2015 wels igi mxolod pakistanis gareT arsebuli auditoriisTvis daxatavs. mas ar unda ali farzaTis bedis gaziareba. ali farzaTi cnobili sirieli karikaturistia, romelzec umowyalo Tavdasxma ganxorcielda – 2011 wels, basar asadis momxre yaCaRebma mas xelebi daumtvries (farzaTi quveiTSi gaiqca da mogvianebiT, azrTa TavisuflebisaTvis, evroparlamentisgan saxarovis prizi miiRo). naxatebis gamoqveynebisTvis sabir nazari socialuri mediisa da blogebis gamoyenebas gegmavs. 2015 wels igi SeuerTdeba farzaTsa da bevr sxva karika-

oh, kanada

mxolod SesaZlebelia… j. d. selinjeris romanebisa da moTxrobebis axali seriis pirveli wigni daibeWdeba. `siymawvile~ riCard linklaters saukeTeso reJisoris nominaciaSi `oskars~ moutans. qeiT buSi glastonberis stumari iqneba.

festivalis

mTavari

kevin (`kal~) kalaheri: karikaturisti,

The Economist

karikaturistTa mimdinare TaobisaTvis kanadaSi 2015 wels jer kidev bevri ramaa dasaxati. maTi kalendris TvalsaCino movlena erovnuli arCevnebi iqneba. kanadeli Jurnalistebi, mwerlebi, am planetaze erT-erTi saukeTesoebi arian – Tanac, Sxamiani britanuli `kbenisa~ da iankebis iumoris nazavs warmatebiT iyeneben komentarebSi. am `kerZs~ cota kvebekuri sisxartec daamateT da miiRebT ICI Laflaques (ixileT marjvniv) – brwyinvale animaciur-satirul Sous, romelic

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Rimilis korianteli ema hogani

alisas didi dabadebis dRe aqvs

865 wlamde, sanam `alisa saocrebaTa qveyanaSi~ gamoqveyndeboda, sabavSvo wignebi umetesad mosawyeni iyo – ufro Wkuis saswavlebeli, vidre gasarTobi. luis qerolis fsevdonimiT cnobili oqsfordis maTematikosis Carlz luTvij dojsonis pirvelma wignma es mTlianad Secvala. 2015 wels, wignis 150 wlis iubiles aRniSvna daamtkicebs, rom misi gavlena jer kidev didia. `alisa saocrebaTa qveyanaSi~ mogviTxrobs erTi gogonas mogzaurobaze sizmrebis samyaroSi, sadac jibis saaTiani TeTri kurdReli, britaneTis istoriis leqtori Tagunia da Cilimis mweveli abreSumis Wia cxovroben. wigni asamde enaze iTargmna; avstraliur aborigenul versiaSi TeTri kurdReli TeTri kenguruTi Caanacvles. am nawarmoebma bevri mxatvari STaagona – salvador dalidan dawyebuli, „mumiebis“ Semqmneli tove iansoniT damTavrebuli. nawarmoebis mixedviT ocze meti filmia Seqmnili. 2015 wels ramdenime gamofena mieZRvneba variaciebs luis qerolis qmnilebis Temaze. ivnisidan oqtombramde

2015 mokled patara barSi, sxva msmeli xalxisgan uCumrad, elvis presli Tavis 80 wlis dabadebis dRes izeimebs

2004 wlis Semdeg gadis (maSin mas ewodeboda `da RmerTma Seqmna... laflaki~) da monrealSi moRvawe karikaturist serJ Saplos kalams ekuTvnis. SouSi `laflaki~ Saplo iyenebs politikosebisa da sxva pirovnebebis 3-ganzomilebian animaciur karikaturul Tojinebs da maTi saSualebiT komentars akeTebs mimdinare movlenebis Sesaxeb yovelkvireul naxevarsaaTian programaSi, romelic `radio kanadis~ televiziiT gadmoicema. maRalteqnologiuri Sou Zalian aqtualuri da Wkvianurad dawerilia (frangulenovania). mas axal doneze ahyavs 1980-iani wlebis britanuli marionetebis `mafurTxebeli~ satiris warmatebuli idea. Tanamedrove videogadaRebis

niu-iorkis morganis biblioTeka umaspinZlebs gamofenas, romelSic zRapris britaneTis biblioTekidan naTxovari xelnaweric iqneba warmodgenili. niu-iorkis universitetSi kidev erTi gamofena gaimarTeba, romelic wignTan dakavSirebul parodiebsa da efemerebs gausvams xazs. maisidan ki londonSi, bavSvobis muzeumSi, gaixsneba eqspozicia àlisas saxe~, romelic gamoikvlevs wignis gavlenas stilze. musikis moyvarulebma Tvalyuri unda adevnon zRapris saopero versias, romlis premierac londonSi, martSi gaimarTeba; aseve balets, romelic maisSi, vaSingtonSi daidgmeba. saiubileo wels bevri ram Seiqmneba qerolis sicocxlisa da wignis miRma arsebuli ambis Sesaxeb. aprilSi gamoicema oqsfordis leqtoris robert duglasfearherstis àmbavi alisas Sesaxeb~ – ornawiliani biografiuli da literaturuli istoria. duglas-fearhersti paralelebs gaavlebs qerolis cxovrebasa da misi STagonebis wyaros, alisa lidels Soris. misi wigni aseve aRwers, Tu rogor miiRes qerolis namuSevari, romelmac gavlena moaxdina iseT mwerlebze, rogorebicaa jeims joisi da Tomas sternz elioti. alisa lidelis SvilTaSvilis vanesa taitis pirveli romani `sarkis saxli~ ivlisSi daibeWdeba. taiti lidelisa da qerolis megobrobaze mogviTxrobs, romlis Sesaxebac bevri ram ucnobia da ramac, SesaZloa, Tanamedroveobis mgrZnobiare Temebi gaaRviZos. garda amisa, BBC dokumentur films gadaiRebs qerolis cxovrebasa da misi namuSevrebis uSret mimzidvelobaze. yvela am RonisZiebis miuxedavad, Tayvanismcemlebis didi nawili iubiles wignTan dabrunebiT aRniSnavs. misi pirveli gamomcemeli pen makmilani axal gamocemebsa da qerolis rCeul werilebs dabeWdavs. àlisa saocrebaTa qveyanaSi~ – jibis wignis reproduqcia, 1907 wlidan aseve xelmisawvdomi gaxdeba – iseve, rogorc qerolis namuSevrebis uzarmazari koleqcia, misi aramxatvruli da saarqivo masalebis CaTvliT. aseve daibeWdeba ilustrirebuli wigni, rac uzrunvelyofs imas, rom axali Taobis mkiTxvelebi qerolis yvelaze ukvdavi qmnilebiT - saocrebaTa qveyniTa da misi binadrebiT gaixareben. n ema hogani: britaneTis korespondenti, The Economist

teqnologiis gamoyenebiT, igi qmnis kompleqsur animacias mokle vadebSi. laflaki animaciuri satiris sferoSi msoflio lideria. saintereso iqneba Tvalyuris devneba, Tu rogor mimoixilaven Saplos `Tavxedi~ karikaturuli qmnilebebi kanadis momaval saarCevno kampanias. am dromde karikaturistebi cdilobdnen Tavisi namuSevrebi dilis gazeTebSi daebeWdaT. beWduri samyaros bolodroindeli gadatrialebis Sedegad, zogierTi maTganis imedebi warsuls Cabarda. Tumca, 2015 weli SesaZloa axali xanis dasawyisi gaxdes, roca karikaturistebs ara qaRaldebi, aramed piqselebi miizidavT. n

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magiis momavali

m `ar arsebobs teqnologia, romelic Caanacvlebs kacobriobis survils, magiis sjerodes~, – winaswarmetyvelebs devid bleini, iluzionisti da amtanobis msaxiobi

saidumlo is aris, rom iluzionistebi zemoqmedeben Tqvens fiqrebze, iyeneben ra Tqvensave winaswar ganwyobas samyaros Sesaxeb da amiT isev Tqvens aRfrTovanebas iwveven

agiis momavlis warmosadgenad, umjobesia mis warsuls SevxedoT. Tqven rom axla banqos pirvel, werilobiT Semonaxul fokuss gitarebdeT, albaT iseve motyuvdebodiT, rogorc 1478 wlis italiis mcxovreblebi. misi ganxorcielebisTvis dResac igive teqnika gamoiyeneba. iluzionistebs saukeTeso meTodebis Senaxvis grZeli da saidumloebiT moculi istoria aqvT. Tumca, maRali donis magia imaze mets moiTxovs, vidre ubralod meqanikur ostatobas – mas auditoriis marTvis xelovneba sWirdeba. magaliTisTvis aiReT hari hudini. saukunis win mnaxvelebs sunTqva ekvrodaT, roca swor paltoSi gamowyobili kaci caTambjenidan gadmoekideboda. hudinis gaqcevis fokusi axali da STambeWdavi iyo da mis saxels SeuZleblis SesrulebasTan akavSirebda. es iyo inovaciuri performansi, Tumca, ar gulisxmobda axali teqnologiebis gamoyenebas. amis nacvlad, hudini auditorias emociurad iTrevda Tavis warmodgenaSi, maT imedebsa da SiSebze TamaSobda. amitomac iyo misi warmodgenebi aseTi efeqtiani. magia gamoyenebiTi fsiqologiis erT-erTi formaa. saSemsruleblo magiis fsiqologiuri safuZvlebi aTasobiT wlebis ganmavlobaSi iseve gamoiyeneboda, rogorc axla. ramdenime wlis win, specialuri satelevizio siuJetis mosamzadeblad, venesuelaSi, uRranis tyis yvelaze Sor wertilSi gavemgzavre da ianomamis tomi movinaxule. es ojaxebi TiTqmis iseve cxovroben, rogorc xuTi da aTi aTasi wlis win. maTTvis mniSvnelovnad araferi Secvlila. gaocebuli viyavi, roca vnaxe maTi winamZRoli Samanis `warmodgena~, raSic martivad amovicani moxerxebuli xelis moZraobebiT Sesrulebuli magia. igi mas iyenebda auditoriis dasarwmuneblad imaSi, rom erTi SexedviT SeuZlebeli winaaRmdegobebis gadalaxva sruliad realuri iyo. iluzionistebi didi xnis ganmavlobaSi mecnierebis eqspluatacias gasarTobi speqtaklebis Sesaqmnelad axorcielebdnen. zogjer iyenebdnen iseT teqnologias, romlis arsebobis Sesaxeb Cveulebrivi mosaxleoba mxolod mogvianebiT igebda. me-17 saukunis erTerTi germaneli mRvdeli pirvel adamianad miiCneoda, romelmac jadosnuri lampris Sesaxeb dawera. am axal xelsawyos SeeZlo iseTi speqtris Seqmna, rac mnaxvelTaTvis namdvil jadosnobas waagavda. saukuneebis manZilze igi saidumlo xelsawyod gamoiyeneboda, sanam yoveldRiuri gamoyenebis nivTad iqceoda da saxelad slaidebis proeqtori daerqmeoda. kidev erTi inovatori Jan iujin roberthudini iyo (romlisganac SemdgomSi iluzionistma hudinim saxeli isesxa). 1856 wels, alJirSi, kolonisti safrangeTis winaaRmdeg ajanyebis CasaxSobad man eleqtromagnetizmis TiTqmis ucnobi fenomeni gamoiyena. hudinma adgilobriv religiur winamZRolebs ajoba imis CvenebiT, rom mxolod sakuTari survilisa da nebisyofis meSveobiT SeeZlo rkinis im patara yuTis aweva, romelsac yvelaze Zlieri

mamakacic ki ver aswevda, da romlis aweva patara bavSvsac ki SeeZlo. dResdReobiT, ra Tqma unda, martivi ar aris auditoriis teqnologiurad dajabna. informaciis xanaSi iluzionistebi wuxils gamoTqvamen, rom YouTube-ze mxileba maT xelobas daRupavs. isic marTalia, rom fokusebis umetesobis axsna Google-ze iZebneba da wamebSia SesaZlebeli iPhone-iT. ubralod CawereT Google-Si `rogor gavWraT qali Suaze?~ da uamravi bmuli amotivtivdeba, maT Soris –`vikipedias~ statia am Temaze. Tumca, eqneba Tu ara iluziis gamanadgureblebs realuri mniSvneloba? iluzionistebisTvis mTavari gamowveva maTi xelobasa Tu xelovnebaSi axali aRmoCenebia. es aris, rac momavals sainteresos xdis. pirveli SemTxveva ar gaxlavT, roca iluzionistebi zemoqmedebis qveS moeqcnen. 1872 wels, ingliselma saxelad anjelo luisi – fsevdonimiT `profesori hofmani~ – daiwyo magiis saidumlosTvis fardis axda biWebis JurnalSi da Semdeg wignSi `Tanamedrove magia~. iluzionistebi SiSobdnen, rom am xelobas momavali aRar eqneboda, Tu sazogadoeba maTi fokusebis saidumlos gaigebda. Tumca, wignma araTu ver moaxerxa magiis dasamareba, igi erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani wamaxalisebeli gamodga da STaagona bavSvebi, dainteresebuliyvnen magiiT, Tavadac gamxdariyvnen iluzionistebi.

yvelaferi gonebaSi xdeba magiis xelovnebaSi erT-erTi yvelaze saocari is gaxlavT, rom mniSvneloba ara aqvs, sad aris xafangis kari. es saidumloebas ar warmoadgens. saidumlo isaa, rom iluzionistebi zemoqmedebas axdenen Tqvens aRqmaze, fiqrebze, iyeneben ra Tqvensave winaswar ganwyobas samyaros Sesaxeb da amiT isev Tqvens aRfrTovanebas iwveven. gasagebia, rom yvela sakuTari gamocdilebis mixedviT aRiqvams fokuss, rac individualuria TiToeuli adamianisTvis, magram isic kargad viciT, rom zogadad, adamianebi met-naklebad msgavsad fiqroben. im SemTxvevaSic ki, roca rTuldeba teqnologiuri zRvaris miRweva, fsiqologiuri zRvaris gamoyeneba TiTqmis SeuzRudav SesaZleblobebs gvTavazobs. magiis ukan mdgomi saidumlo inovaciis did nawils YouTube-ze ver ipoviT. es uTvalavi saaTis ganmavlobaSi varjiSisa da Secdomebis Sedegia imis misaRwevad, rom auditorias srulyofilad gaugoT. detalebi Seicvleba da meTodebi gaumjobesdeba, magram yvelam kargad viciT, rom banqos fokusebi, romlebic leonardo da vinCis gaaocebda, Tqvenc igivenairad gagakvirvebT. am mxriv, magiis xelovnebas mniSvnelovani gakveTilis swavleba SeuZlia Cveni teqnologiiT Sepyrobili epoqisTvis. iseve, rogorc bevr sxva profesiaSi, 2015 wels da mis Semdegac, yvelaze mniSvnelovani, xalxis, maTi warmodgenebisa da urTierTobis gagebis primitiuli unari iqneba. n

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nekrologi

mSvidobiT, gaqcevaganmartoebis xanav an vro

2015 wels teqnika yvelgan dagvafiqsirebs, sadac ki wavalT, magram CvenTvis amas mniSvneloba aRar eqneba

u dafiqrdebiT, es yovelTvis erTgvar ucnaurobas warmoadgenda. Cveulebriv, xalxs ar unda surdes gaqceva. adamiani socialuri arsebaa. agora, yavis saxli da didi supermarketi misi arCeuli xalxmravali adgilebia. yvela gamogonebis veqtori, damwerlobidan telefonis gamogonebamde da amis Semdegac, iqiTken iyo mimarTuli, rom adamianebi erTmaneTTan daekavSirebina da maTi uwyveti saubrisTvis Seewyo xeli. gandegiloba, martoobisa da siCumis arCeva xSirad eqscentrikulad aRiqmeboda da axsnaganmartebas moiTxovda. saukuneebis manZilze xalxisgan gaqceva Zalian iSviaTi movlena iyo. adamianebs mxolod avadmyofoba, demonebi an xelisufalni aiZulebdnen gariyvas. Tumca, qalaqebis zrdasTan erTad, cxovrebac garTulda, sazogadoebisgan gaqceva dainerga da fesvebic gaidga. horacio Tavis fermaSi iyo ganmartoebuli da mxolod bandusiuri gazafxulis simRera sWirdeboda. virgiliusi mTaSi iyo gaxiznuli da ubralo puriT, kvercxiTa da mwvaniliT kmayofildeboda. morwmunenic gaurbodnen cdunebas da velur bunebas afarebdnen Tavs. simeon mesvete bednieri irxeoda Tavis svetze udabnoSi. Sua saukuneebis irlandiel gandegilebs aravin sWirdebodaT, garda TeTri katis, varskvlavebisa da foTolTa Srialisa. aseTi gaqcevisa da gancalkevebis xibli mogvianebiT aRwera Jerar menli hopkinsma nawarmoebSi `samoTxe-TavSesafari~:

`da me viTxove yofna iq, sadac arasdros grgvinavs qariSxali, sadac mwvane goraki mSvidi TavSesafaria da Sorsaa zRvis mRelvarebisgan~. gaqceva-gariyvam me-17 saukuneSi religiur-politikuri xasiaTi SeiZina. am gzas ajanyebulebi da qristianobis ZaliT gamavrceleblebi mimarTavdnen. am gzam miiyvana piligrimebi velur da TiTqmis cariel amerikamde da garkveulwilad amerikul eqsperiments Cauyara safuZveli. gaqceva ganpirobebuli iyo surviliT, Tavi aeridebinaT `SemboWavi kavSirebisTvis~, zurgi SeeqciaT Zveli samyarosTvis da amasTan erTad, axleburad aeSenebinaT yvelaferi. maSin dramatuloba iyo modaSi. adreul me-19 saukuneSi martoobis maZiebeli poeti iyo, romelic bargs alagebda da midioda alpebSi, sadac martoobaSi unda epovna Tavisi suli; ukan itovebda eWvis grovasa da naZirala adamianebs, da imedovnebda, rom aravin gahyveboda ukan. saukunis dasasruls, martoobis maZiebeli boSa gaxda, romelic gzispiras, cecxlTan fexmorTxmiT ijda; aseve, jvaloTi Semosili maTxovari daxeuli qudiT, romelic mzad iyo, nebismier rameze wasuliyo, rom Tavi daeRwia cxridan xuT saaTamde rutinuli cxovrebisa da qalaqis ganapiras mdgari mowesrigebuli saxlisTvis. aseTi moxetialeebi imiT xarobdnen, mravali dRis ganmavlobaSi adamians rom ar Sexvdebodnen, Tivis zvinSi rom daiZinebdnen da wyaroebsa da mdinareebSi daibandnen. robert luis stivensonis sityvebiT:

`maRla zecas da fexqveS gzatkecils viTxov mxolod~.

SigadaSig, ludis barSi, axal ambebs gacvlidnen xolme, magram ZiriTadad erCiaT, ar scodnodaT, saiT mieqaneboda sazizRari msoflio. meoce saukunis 60-iani wlebisTvis gaqceva-ganmartoebam yvavilebiani grZeli nawnavisa da SeWeWyili sapiknike furgunis forma miiRo da tye-velad gaiWra. es versia metad seriozul midgomas moiTxovda, radganac siyvarulis, mSvidobisa da miwaze mijaWvulobis gareSe cxovrebis gzavnilebs Seicavda. Tumca, naklebad Tu vinme iRebda amas seriozulad. amis Semdeg gaqceva-ganmartoebis axali saxeoba warmoiSva, romelmac male yvelaferi gadafara. am saxeobisTvis damaxasiaTebeli iyo gasaruji kremiT, saintereso romanebiTa da iseTi tansacmliT savse Cemodani, romelic mxolod palmebis CrdilSi dasvenebisTvis iyo gamiznuli. igi moicavda saxlisa da samsaxuris datovebas da ori sruli kviriT maTgan Tavis daRwevas. fostas SeeZlo saxlis karTan daxvavebuliyo, gadasaxadebic moicdida; vinme sxva gaarkvevda uzustobas kontraqtSi an daakmayofilebda rTuli klientis pretenzias. rac mTavaria, aravis ecodineboda sastumros telefoni. Tumca, gaqceva-ganmartoebis am saxeobis mimdevari maleve daiwyebda Relvas. moZebnida gazeTebs misi mSobliuri adgilidan da sayvarel satelevizio arxebs; ecdeboda ucxour meniuSi misTvis nacnobi kerZebis, da sanapiroze Tanaqalaqelebis povnas. zogadad, arafersac ar gaeqceoda. mobiluri telefonebi da aipedebi am fsevdogaqcevas kidev ufro gaamartivebda. es iyo patara nabiji dasasveneblad wasuli ojaxebisTvis, romlebic yuradRebas ar aqcevdnen xalxs da garemos maT garSemo da mxrebSi moxrilebi gafacicebiT kiTxulobdnen eleqtronul gzavnils Sinidan.

kvalis datoveba 2015 wlamde didi xniT adre gaqceva-ganmartoeba CixSi Sevida. gaqroba imdenad nelnela moxda, rom droSi misi dafiqsireba SeuZlebeli gaxda. mobiluri telefonebis roumingis gadasaxadis gauqmeba evropaSi 2015 wlis dekemberSi (an daaxloebiT am dros) misi kidev erTi `aCrdilia~. gaqceva-ganmartoebis gardauval `sikvdils~ ori ram moaswavebs: pirveli – adgilsamyofelis cifruli dafiqsirebis farTod gavrcelebuli SesaZleblobebi, rac Seuqcevadi procesia iqidan gamomdinare, Tu rogor viqceviT. internetmyidvelebi da socialuri mediis momxmareblebi toveben imas, rasac germanelebi `cifrul kvals~ uwodeben: Tavisi arCevanis, Cvevebisa da akviatebebis kvals, rac maT mier moxmarebuli kbilis pastiT iwyeba da maTi sabanko baraTiT mTavrdeba. garda amisa, jer kidev SesaZlebelia yofili kriminalebis codvebis povna Google-ze, xolo Facebook-s versad daemaleba ofisis `bedovlaTi~ maSinac ki, Tu igi Setlandis arqipelagze an pingvinebiT savse patagoniis qoxSi gaiqceva. meore – TiToeuli bmuli, rac mWidrod `gvxlarTavs~ da `gvawebebs~ Cvens internetbrauzerebsa da provaiderebs – Facebook-ze mizanmimarTuli reklamidan dawyebuli, da Google-is quCis xedvis programis mier Cvens fanjrebSi SemoWvretiT damTavrebuli – xanmokle qariSxals warmoSobs, TiTqos davnebdiT faqts, rom yvela sajaro sakuTrebas warmovadgenT – maSinac ki, roca Sin varT. Tu axla mudmivad telefonze vsaubrobT da internetTan varT `mierTebuli~, dae iyos ase. aseTia Tanamedrove cxovreba. umal gulSi vixutebT Cveni adgilsamyofelis damfiqsireblebs, vidre ukuvagdebT maT. rogorc gemis anZaze mibmuli ulisesTvis, romelsac simRerebiT abruebdnen sirinozebi, ukve yvelasaTvis naTelia, rom gaqceva srulebiTac aRar gvinda. n an vro: nekrologis redaqtori, The Economist

131

msoflio 2015 seqcia momzadebulia:

Georgia Today Group politika giorgi margvelaSvili saqarTvelos prezidenti irakli RaribaSvili saqarTvelos premier-ministri kaxa kalaZe saqarTvelos vice-premieri, energetikis ministri daviT narmania Tbilisis meri daviT sergeenko Sromis, janmrTelobisa da socialuri dacvis ministri oTar danelia saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis ministri levan yifiani sportisa da axalgazrdobis saqmeTa ministri

biznesi nika geguCaZe `xalik bankis~ generaluri direqtori goga jafariZe „paSa bankis“ komerciuli direqtori asmus rotne prokredit bankis generaluri direqtori

saqarTvelo 2015 giorgi CogovaZe saqarTvelos turizmis erovnuli administraciis xelmZRvaneli elguja xokriSvili garemosa da bunebrivi resursebis dacvis ministri

ekonomika guga canava „rakia jorjias“ generaluri direqtori

ianoS hermani evrokavSiris elCi saqarTveloSi

irakli kovzanaZe sapartnioro fondis aRmasrulebeli direqtori

riCard norlandi amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis elCi saqarTveloSi

mamuka baxtaZe ss „saqarTvelos rkinigzis“ generaluri direqtori

orTvin henigi saqarTveloSi germaniis elCi

giorgi cikolia mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagentos direqtori

viqtor doliZe saqarTvelos parlamentis deputati („Tavisufali demokratebi“) daviT darCiaSvili parlamentis deputati („erTiani nacionaluri moZraoba“)

irakli burdilaZe developeruli kompaniis `m2 uZravi qoneba~ sameTvalyureo sabWos Tavmjdomare ilia wulaia „arqi jgufis“ damfuZnebeli da aRmasrulebeli direqtori

irakli leqvinaZe `jorjian biznes insaiTi~ (BPI), ekonomisti roman gociriZe ekonomikuri ganviTarebis centris Tavmjdomare; saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis yofili prezidenti

ana trapaiZe „kredos“ sazogadoebasTan urTierTobis menejeri ganaTleba giorgi melaZe `niutonis Tavisufali skolis“ direqtori

132

saqarTvelo/politika

msoflio 2015

Cveni mTavari gamowvevebi da upiratesobebi 2015 mokled 2015 wlisaTvis qveynisaTvis mTavar gamowvevad rCeba inkluziuri ekonomikuri zrdis xelSewyoba

giorgi margvelaSvili

„gvesaWiroeba ufro meti saerTaSoriso daxmareba, Tanadgoma da CarTuloba“

giorgi margvelaSvili: saqarTvelos prezidenti

015 wels saqarTvelo evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebiT Sexvda. es aris dasawyisi Cveni saxelmwifoebriobis mSeneblobis axali etapisa, romelmac qveynis winsvla, aRmSenebloba da keTildReoba Seuqcevad procesad unda aqcios. ganvlilma welma naTlad dagvanaxa, Tu raoden mniSvnelovania qveyanaSi saxelmwifo institutebis gamarTuli funqcionireba da demokratiuli mmarTvelobis gaZliereba. evropis organuli nawili rom gavxdeT, evropuli wesrigi Cveni cxovrebis wesad unda iqces! amis safuZveli ki marTvis dasavluri sistema da WeSmaritad samarTlebrivi saxelmwifoa. 2015 wlisaTvis qveynisaTvis mTavar gamowvevad rCeba inkluziuri ekonomikuri zrdis xelSewyoba, iseTi ekonomikuri politikis ganxorcieleba, romelmac unda uzrunvelyos ekonomikuri ganviTarebis procesSi mosaxleobis sayovelTao CarTuloba da ekonomikuri zrdis Sedegad – sazogadoebis TiToeuli wevris keTildReoba. miuxedavad gasul wlebSi saqarTveloSi arsebuli ekonomikuri zrdis zomieri da maRali maCveneblebisa, samwuxarod, qveyanaSi arsebulma ekonomikurma modelma ver uzrun-

velyo ekonomikuri dovlaTis met-naklebad Tanabari gadanawileba sazogadoebis wevrebs Soris, ver moaxdina gavlena umuSevrobisa da siRaribis maCveneblebis Semcirebaze, Sesabamisad, qveyanaSi uTanasworobis maCvenebeli jer kidev maRalia. saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier SemuSavebuli da damtkicebuli saqarTvelos socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategia `saqarTvelo 2020~ swored aRniSnuli sakiTxis kargad gaazrebas da ganxorcielebis gzebs gvTavazobs. ekonomikuri ganviTarebis procesSi mosaxleobis CarTulobas, dasaqmebas, mniSvnelovnad Seuwyobs xels qveyanaSi mcire da saSualo biznesis ganviTareba, romlis wilic mSp-is formirebis procesSi dRes Zalian dabalia. erTi mxriv, dagegmili msxvili regionuli proeqtebis ganxorcieleba umravles SemTxvevaSi avtomaturad uzrunvelyofs Tanmdevi mcire da saSualo biznesis dafuZnebasa da ganviTarebas, xolo meore mxriv, finansebze xelmisawvdomoba da Tavisufali konkurencia met adamians miscems stimuls mcire biznesis dawyebisaTvis. gasul wels saqarTvelos mier evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis gaformeba da Sesabamisad, misi ganuyofeli nawilis – Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebis (DCFTA) amoqmedeba mniSvnelovnad uwyobs xels saqarTvelos konkurentunarianobisa da mimzidvelobis zrdas saerTaSoriso ekonomikur asparezze. DCFTA saSualebas aZlevs investorebs saqarTveloSi awarmoon produqcia da

msoflio 2015

miawodon igi evrokavSiris maRali msyidvelobiTi unariT gamorCeul 500 milion momxmarebels yovelgvari satarifo da arasatarifo SezRudvebis gareSe. damoukidebeli kvlevebi adasturebs, rom evrokavSirTan Tavisufali vaWrobis Semdeg saqarTvelodan eqsporti evrokavSirSi izrdeba metad, vidre importi evrokavSiridan. DCFTA-is paralelurad, saqarTvelo inarCunebs yvela arsebul Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebas TurqeTTan da dsT-is wevr qveynebTan, da paralelurad, aviTarebs SesaZleblobebs Tavisufali vaWrobis sivrceebis gafarToebisaTvis. DCFTA evrokavSirTan, aseve saqarTvelos Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebebi sxva qveynebTan, arsebuli potenciali axali msgavsi SeTanxmebebis gaformebisaTvis, qveynis mimzidveli da usafrTxo biznesgaremo, mimdinare reformebi sagadasaxado, sabaJo politikisa da teqnikuri regulaciebis mimarTulebiT, konkurenciis politikis gaZliereba, investorisaTvis nebismieri qveynidan saqarTveloSi biznesis keTebis SesaniSnav pirobebs qmnis. strategiuli mdebareobis TvalsazrisiT, Cveni qveynis gansakuTrebuli roli xazgasmiT gamoikveTa zRvaze gasasvlelis armqone ganviTarebadi qveynebis gaeros me-2 konferenciaze. is garemoeba, rom kontinentis 14 aseTi saxelmwifodan 8 saqarTvelos satranzito funqciiT sargeblobs, gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas aniWebs Cvens qveyanas. darwmunebuli var, rom 2015 weli kidev ufro warmoaCens Cvens saerTaSoriso funqcias, rac met saSualebas Seqmnis Cveni qveynis ekonomikuri aRmavlobisaTvis. Zalian maRalia saqarTvelos roli evropasa da azias Soris vaWrobis gafarToebis mimarTulebiT, kaspiis energoresursebis evropisaken gadaadgilebis TvalsazrisiT. Cveni qveynis mniSvnelovani gamowvevaa movaxerxoT evropas, kaspiis regions, centralur aziasa da CineTs Soris arsebuli savaWro nakadebis mzardi moTxovnis dakmayofileba. qveynis mniSvnelovan satransporto derefnad formireba gamoixateba saTanado infrastruqturuli proeqtebis ganxorcielebaSi. am TvalsazrisiT soliduri mniSvneloba eniWeba axal iniciativebs: aRmosavleTi-dasavleTis Cqarosnuli avtomagistralis, baqo-Tbilisi-yarsis sarkinigzo xazis, anakliis Rrma wylovani portis mSeneblobas. amasTan, saqarTvelos aqvs yvela SesaZlebloba regionul logistikur platformad gardaqmnisaTvis. Sesabamisad, mniSvnelovania logisturi infrastruqturis ganviTarebis mimarTulebiT kerZo investorebis monawileoba da aqtiuri CarTuloba. mimdinare da axali saTanado infrastruqturuli proeqtebis ganxorcieleba qveynis satranzito rolsa da mimzidvelobas kidev ufro did mniSvnelobasa da datvirTvas mianiWebs. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis procesSi yovelTvis gasaTvaliswinebelia regionuli geopolitikuri daZabulobidan gamomdinare riskebi, romlebic gansakuTrebiT aris dakavSirebuli investiciebTan, vaWrobasTan, turizmTan da gadaricxvebTan. gasuli wlis bolos laris kursis seriozulma meryeobam kidev erTxel daadastura sagareo ekonomikuri riskebis pirispir qveynis ekonomikis arc Tu sakmarisi mzadyofna. Sesabamisad, aucile-

saqarTvelo/politika

belia, rom mimdinare ekonomikurma reformebma ganamtkicos qveynis ekonomikuri sistemis mdgradoba, radgan ekonomikurad Zlieri saxelmwifo – daculi saxelmwifoa. saqarTvelos mniSvnelovani wvlili Seaqvs saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebaSi, magram, samwuxarod, Cven jer srulfasovnad ver vsargeblobT usafrTxoebis saerTo evropuli sistemiT. miuxedavad Cveni konstruqciulobisa, 2014 wels ruseTis federaciam uaRresad saSiSi nabijebi gadadga saqarTvelos teritoriebis aneqsiisaken. saqarTvelos okupirebul regionebTan (afxazeTi da cxinvalis regioni) e.w. „mokavSireobisa da strategiuli partniorobis xelSekrulebebis“ gaformeba kidev ufro arTulebs viTarebas samxreT kavkasiaSi, CixSi Sehyavs saqarTvelosa da ruseTis urTierTobebis normalizebis procesi, dauZleveli problemebis winaSe ayenebs afxazobas da safrTxes uqmnis okupirebul teritoriebze mcxovreb Cvens Tanamemamuleebs. samwuxarod, axalgazrda demokratiebis dacva kvlavac mniSvnelovani gamowvevaa saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis sistemisaTvis. 2008 wels saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis Zalisxmevam moaxerxa ruseTis agresiis SeCereba, magram ver uzrunvelyo deokupacia, konfliqtis mogvareba da mezobeli qveynebisadmi ruseTis agresiuli politikis cvlileba. amitomac 2008 wlis oms 2014 wels mohyva ruseTis analogiuri qmedebebi ukrainis winaaRmdeg, ramac kidev ufro gaaRrmava saerTo evropuli usafrTxoebis problemebi.

samwuxarod, axalgazrda demokratiebis dacva kvlavac mniSvnelovani gamowvevaa saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis sistemisaTvis saqarTvelom sakuTari politikuri da humanitaruli mxardaWera SeuerTa saerTaSoriso Zalisxmevas ukrainis okupaciis winaaRmdeg. kidev ufro gamoikveTa saqarTvelos, rogorc konstruqciuli da mSvidobiani moTamaSis roli regionul da saerTaSoriso politikur procesebSi. Cven SesaZleblobebis maqsimums vakeTebT ruseTTan urTierTobebis normalizebisaTvis, magram gvesaWiroeba ufro meti saerTaSoriso daxmareba, Tanadgoma da CarTuloba. swored erTiani saerTaSoriso ZalisxmeviT unda moxdes `privilegirebuli interesebis sferoebis~ konfrontaciuli paradigmis cvlileba da Seiqmnas Tanasworuflebiani TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis sivrcis paradigma. miuxedavad arsebuli problemebisa, dRes Cven namdvilad gvaqvs imis SesaZlebloba, rom Cveni samSoblo ukeTes saxelmwifod vaqcioT – qveynad, sadac misi moqalaqeni srulfasovnad cxovroben da viTardebian, romelic wamyvan rols asrulebs regionSi mSvidobis, stabilurobisa da keTildReobis uzrunvelyofisaTvis. me mjera, rom 2015 weli progresis momtani iqneba saqarTvelosTvis. n

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`win kidev bevri saqme gvelis~ momavalSic Cveni amocana iqneba iseTi ekonomikuri zrdis miRweva, romelic saqarTvelos yvela moqalaqes uzrunvelyofs keTildReobiTa da axali samuSao adgilebiT. is dro warsuls Cabarda, roca xelisuflebis saqmianobis prioritets mxolod cifrebSi gamosaxuli ekonomikuri zrda warmoadgenda. regionis qveynebTan mimarTebaSi, Cven ekonomikuri zrdis marTlac STambeWdav maCveneblebs mivaRwieT. 2014 wlis cxra TveSi, saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqti 5.9 procentiT gaizarda da mosalodnelia, rom wliuri zrda gadaaWarbebs 5 procents. magram nebismieri maCvenebeli fuWia, Tu is mxolod cifrad darCa da adamianebis keTildReobaze ar aisaxa. Cveni xelisuflebis umTavres sazrunavs Cveni moqalaqeebi, is adamianebi warmoadgenen, romelTac 2012 wels Rirseuli Sromisa da cxovrebis pirobebs SevpirdiT, raTa nebismier maTgans moexdina sakuTari niWisa da unaris realizacia. amas mowmobs jandacvisa da ganaTlebis reforma, romlis safuZvelzec yvela Cveni moqalaqisTvis mniSvnelovnad xelmisawvdomi gaxda es ori umTavresi sikeTe, aseve sityvisa da gamoxatvis Tavisufleba, axalgazrdebisTvis ucxoeTSi swavlis dafinanseba, fermeruli meurneobebis ganviTarebis mxardaWera.

2014 mokled cvlilebebi 2015 wels TvalsaCino gaxdeba

mTavrobis meTauris sazrunavi Cveni xalxis cxovrebis donis gaumjobesebaa... mTavrobis momavali saqmianoba am miznis miRwevaze iqneba orientirebuli irakli RaribaSvili

`Cveni xelisuflebis umTavres sazrunavs Cveni moqalaqeebi warmoadgenen~

2 irakli RaribaSvili: saqarTvelos premier-ministri

014 weli rTuli weliwadi iyo Cveni regionisTvis â&#x20AC;&#x201C; rogorc geopolitikuri, ise ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT. miuxedavad amisa, Cven SevZeliT winsvla ara mxolod mmarTvelobis, aramed ekonomikis sferoSi mimdinare reformebis mimarTulebiT. Cven davabruneT qveyana ganviTarebis swor da stabilur gzaze. es cvlilebebi 2015 wels TvalsaCino gaxdeba Cveni moqalaqeebisTvis. rogorc axla, ise

Cven gvjera, rom mTavroba qveyanas unda emsaxurebodes ise, rogorc sakuTar ojaxs da Cemi, rogorc mTavrobis meTauris, mTavari fiqri da sazrunavic Cveni xalxis cxovrebis keTildReoba, maTi cxovrebis donis gaumjobesebaa. rogorc ganvlili 2 wlis, ise mTavrobis momavali saqmianoba am miznis miRwevaze iqneba orientirebuli. 2014 wels Cvenma qveyanam bevr mniSvnelovan warmatebas miaRwia: gaZlierda demokratiuli institutebi, gadaidga mniSvnelovani da Tanamimdevruli nabijebi kanonis uzenaesobis dasamkvidreblad, agreTve saxelisuflebo korufciis aRmosafxvrelad; gaumjobesda sainvesticio da biznesgaremo, gaizarda eqsportis moculoba, daigo meti gza, vawarmoeT meti sasoflo-sameurneo produqcia, mov-

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/politika

izideT meti investicia, vidre ganvlil wlebSi. ganxorcielda TviTmmarTvelobis reforma, romelmac ufro daaaxlova xelisufleba da moqalaqeebi erTmaneTs da gaxsna sivrce maTi CarTulobisa da monawileobisTvis. Cveni unikaluri mdebareoba, rogorc aRmosavleTisa da dasavleTis makavSireblis, agreTve biznesis warmoebisTvis Seqmnili xelsayreli garemo, saqarTvelos sul ufro mimzidvel qveynad aqcevs ucxoeli investorebisaTvis, rasac mowmobs araerTi saerTa-

Cven erTgulni vrCebiT pragmatuli, racionaluri da deeskalaciisken mimarTuli sagareo politikisa Soriso reitingis mixedviT gaumjobesebuli maCveneblebi. mniSvnelovani winsvla gvaqvs soflis meurneobis, turizmisa da energetikis sferoebSi. 2014 wlis sam kvartalSi, saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli ucxouri investiciebi 29 procentiT aRemateba imave periodis 2013 wlis maCvenebels. 2014 wels saqarTvelom xeli moawera evrokavSirTan asocirebis xelSekrulebas, Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis CaTvliT, romelic qveyanas sTavazobs did ekonomikur SesaZleblobebs; gaRrmavda da ganmtkicda TanamSromloba NATO-sTan; qveyana gadavida evrokavSirTan savizo reJimis liberalizaciis samoqmedo gegmis ganxorcielebis daskvniT etapze. win kidev bevri saqme gvelis. Cven mzad varT rTuli saSinao Tu sagareo gamowvevebis misaRebad. daZabul geopolitikur garemoSi Cven erTgulni vrCebiT pragmatuli, racionaluri da deeskalaciisken mimarTuli sagareo politikisa, romlis mizania saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis, teritoriuli mTlianobisa da stabiluri ekonomikuri da politikuri ganviTarebis uzrunvelyofa. saqarTvelo aucileblad gaxdeba Zlieri, damoukidebeli da Tavisufali saxelmwifo, romelic Tavis wvlils Seitans saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebaSi. Cveni qveyana iqneba demokratiuli evropuli saxelmwifo, romelic Tavis moqalaqeebs miscems did SesaZleblobebs, moaxdinon TavianTi potencialis realizeba. Cveni saxelmwifos warmatebaSi dRes me darwmunebuli var ise, rogorc arasodes. vamayob Cveni miRwevebiT da kidev ufro did imeds vamyareb momavalze. n

27 ivniss, briuselSi, evropuli sabWos Sexvedris 足farglebSi xeli moewera saqarTvelosa da evrokavSirs 足Soris asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebas, romelic aseve moicavs Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebas

asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebas xeli moaweres saqarTvelos premier-ministrma irakli RaribaSvilma, evropuli sabWos (aw ukve yofilma) prezidentma herman van rompuim, (aw ukve yofilma) evrokomisiis prezidentma Joze manuel barozom da evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwifoebisa da mTavrobebis meTaurebma

herman van rompui da irakli RaribaSvili

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demokratiul gzaze 2015 mokled sworad ganviTarebul qveyanaSi, sadac xalxi saxelmwifo wyobiT kmayofilia, amomrCeveli ganapirobebs, romeli Zala mova politikaSi, da ra ZalebiT iqneba dakompleqtebuli xelisufleba

kaxa kalaZe

saqarTvelos vice-premieri, energetikis ministri kaxi kalaZe aRwers, Tu rogori saqarTvelos aSeneba surs xelisuflebas

aqarTvelo dRes aris demokratiuli qveyana~. `Cven vaSenebT demokratiul qveyanas...~ `saqarTveloSi dasavleTis demokratiebis msgavsi demokratia gveqneba...~ da kidev mravali msgavsi dapireba. me, piradad, es sityvebi rac sabWoTa kavSiri ar arsebobs, mudam mesmoda nebismieri xelisuflebisgan. axla Tavad var saqarTvelos mTavrobis wevri da Cveni gzavnilic aris is, rom saqarTveloSi demokratiam gaimarjva da Cven misi Senebis mudmiv procesSi kvlav varT. ra SevcvaleT? ras vaSenebT? ra dgas realurad am sityvebis miRma? ra aris dRes demokratia saqarTveloSi da rogor gvesmis es? upirveles yovlisa, es aris Tavisufleba. pirovnebis Tavisufleba, romlis zRvarsac mxolod individualuri morali ganapirobebs. da saxelwifos Tavisufleba, roca moqalaqesTan saxelmwifos urTierobas mxolod kanoni ganapirobebs. demokratiaa, roca ar aris SiSi. SiSi xelisuflebisadmi da piriqiT – roca, xelisuflebas ar eSinia xalxis da Zaladobis gareSe marTavs qveyanas.

sazogadoebrivi aqtivoba da CarTuloba, oponireba xelisuflebasTan – es ki ar asustebs, aramed aZlierebs demokratiul atmosferos qveyanaSi

kaxa kalaZe: saqarTvelos vice-premieri, energetikis ministri

demokratiaa, roca xalxis neba, xalxis arCevani ayalibebs qveynis mmarTvel Zalas, gunds, pirebs. riTi viwyebT am mSeneblobas? upirvelesad, unda Seiqmnas Zlieri saSualo fena. es aris demokratiis sayrdeni. sazogadoebis es nawili rac ufro didia, kmayofili da realizebuli, miT ufro myaria xelisufleba, Zlieria qveyana, stabiluria demokratiuli ganviTareba. meore – Zlieri samoqalaqo seqtori, romelsac eqneba mudmivi komunikacia xelisuflebasTan, mudmivi monitoringis reJimSi. sazogadoebrivi azri, sazogadoebrivi aqtivoba da CarTuloba, oponireba xelisuflebasTan – es ki ar asustebs, aramed aZlierebs demokratiul atmosferos qveyanaSi da amas, upirvelesad, TviTon xelisuflebam unda Seuwyos xeli. yvelaze didi Secdoma mgonia, roca demokratiuli saxelmwifos mSeneblobaSi, mmarTveli Zala, saxelisuflebo gundi ganapirobebs an mcdeloba aqvs mimarTuleba misces mosaxleobis politikur gemovnebas da simpaTiebs. es savalalo Secdomaa da Sedegebis samwuxaro magaliTebiT gajerebulia Cveni politikuri istoria.

Zlieri demokratia aris sawindari, da garanti imisa, rom qveynis kursi ar Secvleba, rom xelisuflebaSi arasodes mova antidemokratiuli Zalebi, rom mosaxleobis politikuri simpaTiebi da arCevani yovelTvis demokratiis mSenebeli politikosis, partiis mimarT iqneba, vinaidan isini amaSi Tavis keTildReobas, sakuTar stabilurobas da simSvides xedaven. demokratias sWirdeba swavla, axsna da propaganda. Cven yvelanairi saxelmwifo mowyoba gvqonda, Cven viciT, ra aris erTpartiuli da ideologiuri diqtatura, omi, samoqalaqo qaosi, klanuri mmarTveloba, avtokratiuli reJimi. Cven unda ganvaxorcieloT Zireuli gardatexa cnobierebaSi, unda gaviTavisoT, rom demokratia saqarTvelosTvis utopia ar aris – es gaxlavT is realoba, rac dRes SevqmeniT da gvaqvs yvela resursi, es cariel sityvebad, miuRwevel miznad ar darCes. ganaTleba, Semwynarebloba, sakuTari TavisuflebiT sxvisi Tavisuflebis arSezRudva, kerZo sakuTrebis xelSeuxebloba – es aris demokratiis sijansaRis sawindari. TiTqos martivia, magram rodis yofila es yvelaferi kompleqsurad ganxorcielebuli? demokratiul qveyanaSi mosaxleoba swor prioritetebs aniWebs politikur Zalebs da maT ideologias. demokratia antibiotikiviT moqmedebs politspeqtris sijansaReze. sworad ganviTarebul qveyanaSi, sadac xalxi saxelmwifo wyobiT kmayofilia, amomrCeveli ganapirobebs, romeli Zala mova politikaSi, da ra ZalebiT iqneba dakompleqtebuli xelisufleba. jansaRi, demokratiuli xelisufleba ganapirobebs jansaR samoqalaqo sazogadoebas, da piriqiT – jansaRi samoqalaqo sazogadoeba ganapirobebs, rom qveynis saTaveSi jansaRi politikuri gundi iqneba. es Sekruli, myari wrea da am wridan, mjera, saqarTvelo arasodes gamova. Cven vaSenebT demokratias. es survili da mcdelobaa Zveli, Torem procesi axalia, monawileoba masSi saintereso, sapasuxismgebloa, da Zalian male saboloo Sedegic gveqneba. demokratiuli saqarTvelo – es mxolod dapireba an ocneba ar aris. es gaxlavT realoba. Seuqcevadi da samudamo, Semdgari faqti. Cveni dRevandeli dRe. n

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137

2015 wels Tbilisi ganviTarebis axal energias SeiZens daviT narmania

`dedaqalaqSi arsebiTad gaizrdeba jandacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis programaTa dafinanseba~

edaqalaqi 2015 wels mravali siaxliTa da saintereso proeqtiT Sexvda. wels, pirvelad, Tbilisis merias aqvs programuli biujeti, romelic detalurad asaxavs im proeqtebisa da programebis xarjTaRricxvas, romelic 2015 wels ganxorcieldeba. mniSvnelovania, rom biujetis Sedgenisas raionebis mixedviT gamoikiTxnen moqalaqeebi da 2015 wlis biujeti swored maT mier gamokveTili prioritetebis Sesabamisad SevadgineT. mimdinare wels oTxi umTavresi prioriteti gvaqvs. esenia: janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri uzrunvelyofa; dedaqalaqis gamwvaneba; sabavSvo baRebis mSenebloba-reabilitacia da municipaluri infrastruqturis keTilmowyoba. upirvelesi prioriteti, romelic gamovyaviT, Cveni Tanaqalaqelebis jandacvaze zrunva da socialurad daucveli ojaxebis pirobebis gaumjobeseba gaxlavT. 2015 wels, TbilisSi arsebiTad gaizrdeba jandacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis programaTa dafinanseba, da amas, upirvelesad, socialurad daucveli ojaxebi da mZime daavadebebis mqone is adamianebi igrZnoben, romlebsac Cveni mxardaWera yvelaze metad esaWiroebaT. jandacvis mimarTulebiT, wels ramdenime axali proeqti amoqmedda: daiwyo C hepatitiT daavadebul pirebSi mkurnalobis taqtikis gansazRvrisaTvis saWiro kvlevebis dafinansebis programa; ganxorcieldeba leikemiiTa da sxva onkohematologiuri sneulebebiT daavadebuli 25 wlamde asakis pacientebis operaciuli mkurnalobis programa; daiwyo socialurad daucveli 18 wlamde mkveTrad da mniSvnelovnad SezRuduli SesaZleblobis mqone pirTa daxmarebis, agreTve, socialurad daucveli mkveTrad SezRuduli SesaZleblobebis mqone usinaTlo pirTa daxmarebis programa; gadavwyviteT, mimdinare wels xeli SevuwyoT socialurad daucveli studentebis profesiul ganaTlebas. amisaTvis SevimuSaveT axali programa, romlis farglebSic socialurad daucvel studentebs davafinansebT. Cveni kidev erTi axali prioriteti miusafarTa patronaJia. amisaTvis daviwyeT miusafarTa TavSesafris movla-patronobis programa; garda amisa, sofel lilos teritoriaze ukve mimdinareobs miusafarTa axali TavSesafris mSenebloba, romelic 240 beneficiarzea gaTvlili. proeqtis mixedviT, sacxovrisisTvis aSendeba erTsarTuliani Senoba, sadac ganTavsdeba saZineblebi, samrecxao, sveli wertilebi, sasadilo oTaxi, medpunqti, stacionari, fsiqologis kabineti. sacxovrebel kompleqsSi moewyoba Sida da gare kanalizaciisa da wyalsadenis qselebi, damontaJdeba eleqtroenergia, Sida gaTboba, ventilacia. TavSesafari uzrunvelyofili iqneba gazmomaragebiT, xanZarsaqrobiTa da saqvabiT. proeqtiT gaTvaliswinebulia TavSesafris Sida ezos keTilm-

owyobac. kompleqss eyoleba dacva da adaptirebuli iqneba SSm pirebisaTvis. mSeneblobis dasrulebisTanave, moskovis prospeqtze arsebul droebiT TavSesafarSi mcxovreb 200 beneficiars axal, kapitalur da keTilmowyobil TavSesafarSi gadaviyvanT. 2015 wlidan socialurad daucveli adamianebi gaormagebul daxmarebebs miiReben – iseve, rogorc axal socialur proeqtebSi CaerTvebian. mimdinare wlidan aseTi ojaxebi yvela axalSobilze erTjerad 500-larian daxmarebas miiReben; garda amisa, gaormagda socialurad daucveli mravalSviliani ojaxebisaTvis 18 wlamde asakis TiToeul bavSvze yovelTviuri daxmareba; 5 milioni lariT gaizarda Tbilisis municipalitetis gamgeobebis mier socialurad daucveli pirebis dafinansebis programebi. Zalian didi programis ganxorcielebas viwyebT Tbilisis patara moqalaqeebisTvis – 2015 wels TbilisSi 8 axali sabavSvo baga-baRi aSendeba, xolo baRebis did nawils reabilitacia Cautardeba. garda amisa, intensiurad vmuSaobT damatebiTi farTebis moZiebaze, rac saSualebas gvaZlevs, gavzardoT bagabaRebSi adgilebis raodenoba. mxolod gasul 5 TveSi 5 aTasamde axali adgilis gamonaxva SevZeliT. jamSi, 2015 wels sabavSvo baga-baRebis programebisTvis 8 milioni lariT meti gamoiyo da mTlianobaSi maTze 85 milioni lari daixarjeba. 2015 wels masStaburi infrastruqturuli proeqtebis ganxorcielebac gvaqvs dagegmili, raTa Tbilisi bevrad keTilmowyobil, cxovrebis, dasvenebisa da SromisTvis moxerxebul, marTlac evropul qalaqad iqces. dagegmilia puSkinis quCaze ormxrivi moZraobis aRdgena; baraTaSvilis, zahesisa da sxva xidebis reabilitacia; dagegmilia, agreTve, mravalsarTuliani avtosadgomis mSenebloba. 32 milioni lariT gaizarda raionuli gamgeobebis biujeti, romliTac infrastruqturuli da binaTmesakuTreTa amxanagobebis proeqtebi dafinansdeba. mxolod sagzao infrastruqturis mSenebloba-reabilitaciisTvis 60 120 000 lari daixarjeba. dedaqalaqSi milioni xis dargva ar darCeba winasaarCevno dapirebad: 2014 wels, mxolod Tbilisis meriam 20 aTasze meti xe dargo. am procesSi aqtiurad CaerTo kerZo seqtoric, romlis ZalisxmeviTac, dedaqalaqis masStabiT damatebiT 10 aTasamde xe dairgo. Tbilisis gamwvanebis RonisZiebebs 2015 welsac aqtiurad gavagrZelebT. daiwyeba dendrologiuri parkis reabilitaciis proeqti. agreTve, masobrivi gamwvanebis RonisZiebebi ramdenime specialurad SerCeul adgilze ganxorcieldeba. Cveni Zalauflebis wyaro Tbiliselebis mxardaWeraa. amitomac mjera, rom swored dedaqa laqis mcxovrebTa mxardaWeriT, 2015 wels Tbilisi ganviTarebis axal energias SeiZens.n

2015 mokled Zalian didi programis ganxorcielebas viwyebT Tbilisis patara moqalaqeebisTvis –2015 wels TbilisSi 8 axali sabavSvo bagabaRi aSendeba, xolo baRebis did nawils reabilitacia Cautardeba

daviT narmania: Tbilisis meri

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sayovelTao jandacvis saxelmwifo programa mTliani gundis warmatebaa daviT sergeenko

2015 mokled Semdeg etapze aucilebelia pirveladi daniSnulebis medikamentebze xelmisawvdomobis gazrda

`aucilebelia, pirveladi daniSnulebis medikamentebze xelmisawvdomobis gazrda~, â&#x20AC;&#x201C; miiCnevs Sromis, janmrTelobisa da socialuri dacvis ministri daviT sergeenko

elisuflebaSi axali gundis mosvlisTanave, mTavari amocana da erT-erTi ZiriTadi koncefcia iyo is, rom adamians usaxsrobis gamo ar daekarga sicocxle, Segveqmna iseTi moduli, romelic daexmareboda moqalaqeebs, miuxedavad maTi socialuri mdgomareobis, sacxovrebeli adgilisa da materialuri kuTvnilebisa. swored es aris sayovelTao jandacvis mTavari idea. ra Tqma unda, yovelTvis iqneba raRac Sesacvleli, raRac gasaumjobesebeli. es nebismier saqmes axasiaTebs, magram bevr sxvaTa Soris, jandacvas erTi

mimdinare da Semdegi etapis amocanaa, samedicino xarisxis gaumjobeseba, iseve, rogorc axali teqnologiebis danergva, romelic saSualebas miscems Cvens samedicino sazogadoebas naklebi danaxarjebiT bevrad kvalificiuri momsaxureba gauwios Cvens moqalaqeebs.

daviT sergeenko: Sromis, janmrTelobisa da socialuri dacvis ministri

damatebiTi specifika aqvs, rom sazogadoebis molodini yovelTvis aRemateba im realobas, risi miwodebac aris SesaZlebeli. am sferoSi ori wlis saqmianobas, maT Soris sayovelTao jandacvis saxelmwifo programas, yovelgvari yalbi Tavmdablobis gareSe, Tundac imitom, rom es namdvilad ar aris mxolod Cemi damsaxureba da es mTavrobis mTliani gundis damsaxurebaa, Sevafaseb warmatebulad. Cven aTeulobiT da aseulobiT adamiani vixseniT im ori mTavari riskisgan, rac gvqonda proeqtis dasawyisSi. Semdeg etapze aucilebelia pirveladi daniSnulebis medikamentebze xelmisawvdomobis gazrda. aqamde Cven es ukve SevZeliT C hepatitis samkurnalo medikamentebTan mimarTebaSi, Tumca mTavari proeqti win aris da aseve Zalian didi imedi maqvs, rom SevZlebT socialuri proeqtis ganxorcielebas medikamentebis xelmisawvdomobaze. mimdinare da Semdegi etapis amocanaa, samedicino xarisxis gaumjobeseba, iseve, rogorc axali teqnologiebis danergva, romelic saSualebas miscems Cvens samedicino sazogadoebas naklebi danaxarjebiT bevrad kvalificiuri momsaxureba gauwios Cvens moqalaqeebs. 2014 wels Catarebuli kidev erTi seriozuli reforma da SeiZleba iTqvas, gamowvevac, receptebis

institutis amoqmedeba gaxldaT. es reforma ramdenime faqtorma ganapiroba: Cveni amocana iyo Segvemcirebina mzardi narkomania da amave dros dagvewyo brZola TviTmkurnalobis gaxSirebul praqtikasTan. bunebrivia, Cven velodiT sazogadoebis mxridan garkveul ukmayofilebas, radgan yoveli axali reforma da regulacia, ra saxisac unda iyos, sazogadoebis garkveuli nawilisTvis mtkivneulad misaRebia. am droisTvis sakiTxi ukve daregulirebulia. magaliTisTvis SemiZlia giTxraT, rom fsiqotropuli nivTierebebis aramiznobrivi moxmareba, regulaciebis gamoyenebis Semdeg, 95%-iT Semcirda. epizoduri problemebi jer kidev arsebobs, magram maTTan brZola da axali gamowvevebi mudmivi procesia. n

msoflio 2015

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139

kompleqsuri RonisZiebebi agraruli seqtoris asaRorZineblad oTar danelia

2015 mokled soflis meurneobis saministros laboratoria cxovelTa janmrTelobis, sursaTis uvneblobisa da fitosanitariis sferoSi erovnul referalur centrad gardaiqmneba

`CvenTvis aucilebelia meti komunikacia qveynis mosaxleobasTan~

vrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebaze xelmowerisa da ratificirebis Semdeg, saqarTvelo axali realobis, axali politikuri da ekonomikuri gamowvevebis winaSe dadga. am gamowvevebis mniSvnelovani wili agrarul seqtorze modis. Cveni qveynis socialur-ekonomikuri aRorZinebis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi mimarTuleba soflis meurneobis efeqtiani ganviTarebaa. Cven gvaqvs SesaZlebloba konkurentunariani, ekologiurad sufTa sasoflo-sameurneo produqcia vawarmooT da msoflio bazarze davimkvidroT adgili. uaxloes warsulSi saqarTveloSi ganviTarebulma politikur-ekonomikurma movlenebma soflis meurneobis dargi, praqtikulad, gaanadgura. dRevandeli xelisufleba aRmoCnda im realobis winaSe, roca Cveni mewarmeebisTvis, fermerebisTvis/ glexebisTvis sasicocxlod aucilebeli gaxda saxelmwifos mxridan finansuri da teqnikuri daxmareba – safuZvliani da Tanamedrove ganaTlebis miRebis mimarTulebiT. swored amitom, xelisuflebam soflis meurneoba prioritetad gamoacxada da dargis ganviTarebis xelSewyobis mizniT, kompleqsurad axorcielebs masStabur proeqtebsa da RonisZiebebs. `mciremiwian fermerTa sagazafxulo samuSaoebis xelSewyobis proeqtiT~, 2013 wels 710.385 beneficiarma miiRo 200 mln laramde Rirebulebis daxmareba sasoflo-sameurneo baraTebis (kombinirebuli da nominaluri) saxiT. samwliani programis meore nawili 2014 wels ganxorcielda. proeqtSi CarTuli iyo 757 145 beneficiari, romelTaTvisac 82 564 768 laris Rirebulebis sargebeli gamoiyo. aRniSnuli proeqtiT fermerebi saxelmwifosgan xvnis samuSaoebSi daxmarebas 2015 welsac miiReben. rac Seexeba `SeRavaTiani agrokreditis proeqts~, mis farglebSi dafinansebulia 89 axali sawarmo, xolo gafarToeba/gadaiaraRebisTvis dafinansebulia 580 sawarmo, rac 2013 wlis maCvenebelze 10-jer meti cifria. 2014 wels amoqmedebuli agrodazRvevis sapilote programiT, romelic saxelmwifos mxridan sadazRvevo premiis 95%-mde subsidirebas gulisxmobs, dazRveulia 18 753-fermeri. Cven aqtiurad vmuSaobT sadrenaJe da sairigacio sistemebis srulyofis mimarTulebiTac. Catarebuli samuSaoebis Sedegad, dReis monacemebiT, gasarwyavebulia 88 aTasi da daSrobilia 25 aTasi heqtari. 20132015 wlebSi mimdinareobs da dagegmilia 55 samelioracio sistemisa da obieqtis reabilitacia. soflis meurneobis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi da perspeqtiuli mimarTuleba mevenaxeoba-meRvineobis dargia. 2013-2014 wlebSi saxelmwifom Seasrula danapirebi – Caubarebeli yurZeni ar darCenila. saerTo jamSi gadamuSavda 124 aTas tonamde mosavali. yurZnis realizaciiT miRebulma Semosavalma 174 mln lars gadaaWarba. wlis manZilze saqarTveloSi Rvinis eqsportis rekorduli maCvenebeli dafiqsirda. soflis meurneobis saministros ssip Rvinis erovnuli saagentos

2014 wlis 15 dekembris monacemebiT, eqsportirebulia 59 mln boTli, romelic Tanxobrivad 183 mln aSS dolaria. bazrebis diversifikaciis Sedegad, am etapze Rvinisa da alkoholuri sasmelebis eqsporti aRmosavleT evropis, CineTisa da iaponiis bazrebze xorcieldeba, xolo ruseTis wili 2005 wlis 88%-iani maCveneblidan 64%-mdea Semcirebuli. 2014 wlidan, saqarTvelos xelisuflebis xelSewyobiT, sasoflo-sameurneo kooperaciis procesi daiwyo. 376 kooperativs (aqidan, 99 kooperativi maRalmTian regionSia) ukve mieniWa sasoflo-sameurneo kooperativis statusi. mniSvnelovania, rom soflis meurneobis saministros laboratoriaSi mimdinareobs axali koncefciisa da organizaciuli struqturis SemuSaveba, romlis mizania laboratoriis gardaqmna cxovelTa janmrTelobis, sursaTis uvneblobisa da fitosanitariis sferoSi erovnul referalur centrad. 2015 wlis dasawyisidan, laboratoria SeZlebs uzrunvelyos Taflis analizi evrokavSiris bazris moTxovnebis Sesabamisad. 2014 wels, saqarTvelos mTavrobis dadgenilebis safuZvelze, Seiqmna soflis meurneobis samecnierokvleviTi centri. 2013 wlidan, soflis meurneobis saministros ssip sursaTis erovnulma saagentom gansakuTrebiT gaaaqtiura sursaTis uvneblobis kuTxiT saxelmwifo kontroli. DCFTA-is molaparakebebis procesSi qarTulma mxarem miaRwia uprecedento SeTanxmebas evrokavSirTan satarifo liberalizaciis kuTxiT. qarTuli warmoSobis yvela produqti (niori –kvotis farglebSi), garkveuli pirobebis (sursaTis uvneblobisa da produqtis usafrTxoebis standartebi) dakmayofilebis SemTxvevaSi, nulovani sabaJo tarifiT evrokavSiris bazarze ganTavsdeba. Cvens mewarmeebs, fermerebs, glexebs, kidev ufro meti xelSewyoba esaWiroebaT. saxelmwifos mxridan maTTvis aucilebelia finansuri da teqnikuri daxmareba, sWirdebaT mxardaWera safuZvliani da Tanamedrove ganaTlebis misaRebad. CvenTvis aucilebelia meti komunikacia qveynis mosaxleobasTan. moqalaqeebs unda davexmaroT ganaviTaron TavianTi saqmianoba, raTa miiRon meti xarisxiani produqti, gaafarTovon sakuTari produqciis gasaRebis bazari, rac, Sesabamisad, gazrdis maT Semosavals. n

oTar danelia: saqarTvelos soflis meurneobis ministri

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2015 – istoriuli weli qarTuli sportisaTvis 2015 mokled

levan yifiani

`2015 wels Cven vmaspinZlobT evropis axalgazrdul olimpiur festivals da uefas superTass~

evropis axalgazrduli festivalisaTvis miviRebT sruliad axal, evropuli standartebis mqone sportul nagebobebs

levan yifiani: sportisa da axalgazrdobis saqmeTa ministri

venma saministrom Zalian saintereso da gamowvevebiT savse weliwadi moitova ukan. gvqonda araerTi warmateba, sportuli Sedegi Tu aRiareba, daviwyeT axali da Zalze mniSvnelovani proeqtebis ganxorcieleba rogorc sportis, aseve axalgazrdobis sferoSi. mTavrobis kabinetma 2014 wels daamtkica `sportis saxelmwifo politikis dokumenti~ da `saxelmwifo axalgazrduli politikis dokumenti~. saministros mier ganisazRvra sami ZiriTadi prioriteti sportis sferoSi: infrastruqturuli, ganaTlebisa da sakanonmdeblo mimarTulebebiT, da 4 strategiuli mimarTuleba axalgazrdobaSi: monawileoba; ganaTleba, dasaqmeba da mobiloba; janmrTeloba; specialuri mxardaWera da dacva. 2014 wels, saqarTvelos istoriaSi pirvelad, Tbilisma umaspinZla warmomadgenlobiT saerTaSoriso konferencias `sportis saxelmwifo politika: gamowvevebi da perspeqtiva~. saministro aqtiurad muSaobs sportuli ganaTlebisa da mecnierebis ganviTarebis sakiTxebze. 2014 wels `saqarTvelos fizikuri aRzrdisa da sportis saxelmwifo saswavlo universitetma~ gaiara avtorizacia da seqtembris TveSi studentebis pirveli nakadi miiRo, funqcionireba daiwyo `saqarTvelos fizikuri aRzrdisa da sportis kolejma~. pirvelad, 2007 wlis Semdeg, saqarTvelos hyavs msoflios Cempioni olimpiur saxeobaSi – axalgazrda talanti, Ziudoisti avTandil WrikiSvili, romelmac msofliosTan erTad, evropis Cempionobac moipova; qarTvelma wyalburTelebma pirvelad iTamaSes evropis Cempionatze 12 uZlieres gunds Soris; moragbeebi ukve zedized meoTxed, kalaTburTelebi ki zedized mesamed gavidnen msofliosa da evropis Cempionatebze. qarTvelma sportsmenebma monawileoba miiRes 100-mde saerTaSoriso sportul asparezobaSi. vumaspinZleT umaRlesi donis saerTaSoriso turnirebsa da asakobriv Cempionatebs ZiudoSi, WadrakSi, wyalburTsa da farikaobaSi. gamovarCev warmatebebs studentur sportSi. qarTvelma sportsmenebma, 2014 wels, jamSi 541 medali moipoves. maT Soris – 197 oqro, 156 vercxli da 188 brinjao. sportuli infrastruqtura Cveni erT-erTi mTavari prioritetia. saministro uSualod zedamxedvelobs axalgazrdul olimpiur festival `Tbilisi 2015~-sTvis Tanamedrove sacurao auzis kompleqsisa da mravalfunqciuri sportis sasaxlis mSeneblobas.

mTlianobaSi, 2015 wels gasamarTi evropis axalgazrduli festivalisaTvis miviRebT sruliad axal, evropuli standartebis mqone sportul nagebobebs. saqarTvelos SesaZlebloba eqneba umaspinZlos msofliosa da evropis Cempionatebs sportis sxvadasxva saxeobebSi. bevri siaxle iyo saerTaSoriso mimarTulebiT: araerT qveyanasTan, saxelmwifo Tu kerZo uwyebasTan gavaformeT memorandumebi, gavaRrmaveT TanamSromloba evropis sabWosTan, CaverTeT evropis sabWos iniciativiT SemuSavebuli konvenciebis ganxilvisa da maTze saqarTvelos mierTebis sakiTxebSi. SveicariaSi gamarTul ministerialze xeli movawere `evropis sabWos konvencias sportuli Sejibrebebis manipulaciebis Sesaxeb~; saqarTvelom oficialuri ganacxadi gaakeTa 2016 wlis evropis sabWos sportze pasuxismgebeli ministrebis konferenciis maspinZlobaze. rac Seexeba axalgazrdul politikas, Zireuli cvlilebebi Sevida `saxelmwifo axalgazrduli politikis dokumentSi~. saministros prioritetad gamocxadda SezRuduli SesaZleblobis mqone pirTa sazogadoebaSi integracia da maTi CarTuloba sportul turnirebsa Tu axalgazrdul iniciativebSi. 2014 wels Seiqmna `saqarTvelos axalgazrda elCebis programa~, romlis meSveobiTac sazRvargareT mcxovreb qarTvel axalgazrdebs SesaZlebloba miecaT erTwliani mandatiT isargeblon.

pirvelad, 2007 wlis Semdeg, saqarTvelos hyavs msoflios Cempioni olimpiur saxeobaSi – axalgazrda talanti, Ziudoisti avTandil WrikiSvili axalgazrduli kuTxiT vaxorcielebT 14 programas. maT Soris – saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi eTnikuri umciresobebis integraciis xelSewyobis, arasrulwlovani da axalgazrda msjavrdebulebis resocializaciis xelSewyobis, araformaluri ganaTlebis mqone studentTa mxardaWerisa da sxva araerT saintereso programas. 2015 wels, gvsurs saministros saqmianoba, sportsa da axalgazrdobaze zrunva, kidev ufro gavaZlieroT da amisaTvis konkretul nabijebs gadavdgamT. 2015 istoriulad gamorCeuli iqneba qarTuli sportisaTvis saerTaSoriso sportuli turnirebis CatarebiT. 2015 wels Cven vmaspinZlobT evropis axalgazrdul olimpiur festivals da „uefas“ superTass. orive, umaRlesi rangis sportuli movlenis maRal doneze organizebisaTvis Seqmnilia samTavrobo komisiebi, procesebSi CarTulia Tbilisis meria. TbilisSi gaimarTeba evropis Cempionati ZalosnobaSi, salicenzio granpri ZiudoSi. moragbeTa da kalaTburTelTa nakrebebma monawileoba unda miiRon msofliosa da evropis Cempionatebze, olimpielebi ki 2016 wlis rio-de-Janeiros olimpiuri TamaSebis licenziebis mosapoveblad daiwyeben brZolas. ase rom, win didi gamowvevebiT savse movlenebi gvelis, rasac maqsimalurad Rirseulad unda gavarTvaT Tavi. n

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gza regionis turistul centrad Camoyalibebisken giorgi CogovaZe

2015 mokled

`wels saqarTvelos turizmis ganviTarebis grZelvadiani strategia eqneba~

saqarTveloSi mravali faqtoris gamo gvaqvs didi perspeqtiva MICE turizmis ganviTarebis kuTxiT da am mimarTulebiT swored 2015 wlidan gadaidgmeba mniSvnelovani nabijebi

ven gvaqvs ambiciuri gegmebi turistebis raodenobis mniSvnelovan zrdasTan dakavSirebiT da amisaTvis axali xedvebisa da koncefciebis danergva Zalian mniSvnelovani iqneba. kerZod, viwyebT muSaobas imaze, rom saqarTvelo gaxdes regionis turistuli centri, raTa msoflio bazrebs SevTavazoT ara mxolod saqarTvelo, rogorc turistulad mimzidveli qveyana, aramed SevTavazoT Cveni qveynis gavliT aiTvison regionis sxva qveynebi. es saSualebas mogvcems, ganvaviTaroT ara mxolod turizmi saqarTveloSi, aramed aseve damatebiTi turistebis generirebis Sedegad metad davtvirToT sastumroebi, savaWro centrebi da gasarTobi industria. aseTi warmatebuli praqtika msoflioSi arsebobs da magaliTis saxiT SeiZleba moviyvanoT kuala lumpuri – malaizia, romelmac swored msgavsi pozicionireba ganaxorciela msoflioSi da didwilad samxreT aRmosavleT aziis qveynebis turistuli aTviseba maTi gavliT xdeba. saqarTvelos, rogorc regionis turistuli centris, formireba, saSualebas mogvcems ufro mimzidveli gavxadoT qveyana saerTaSoriso bazrebisaTvis, gansakuTrebiT – Soreuli qveynebisaTvis. am proeqtis ganxorcieleba da zogadad, turizmis ganviTareba saqarTveloSi gulisxmobs Zalian mWidro TanamSromlobasa da koordinacias sxvadasxva saministrosa da adgilobriv municipalitetebTan, xolo turizmis administracia Zalian mWidrod iTanamSromlebs TiToeul rgolTan. aseve aRsaniSnavia, rom ufro aqtiur TanamSromlobas viwyebT saerTaSoriso organizaciebTan, donorebTan da Cveni megobari qveynebis diplomatiur warmomadgenlobebTan, vinaidan maTi CarTuloba da mxardaWera uaRresad mniSvnelovania turizmis ganviTarebis mimarTulebiT. 2015 wels erT-erT yvelaze mniSvnelovan proeqts amJamad turizmis erovnuli strategiis SemuSaveba warmoadgens, romelic gansazRvravs seqtoris xedvas 2025 wlamde da erTvis 5-wliani samoqmedo gegma. dReisaTvis administracia ganagrZobs dokumentze muSaobas da misi dasrulebuli versiis wardgena gazafxulze igegmeba. proeqti xorcieldeba msoflio bankis dafinansebiT, xolo samuSao procesSi aqtiurad arian CarTuli kerZo, sajaro da arasamTavrobo seqtoris warmomadgenlebi. Rvinis, kulinariisa da maTTan dakavSirebul tradiciebs Cven kidev ufro metad warmovaCenT, rogorc saqarTvelos turistuli potencialis erTerT mTavar produqts. aseve, saqarTvelo unda warmoCindes samedicino turizmis kuTxiT. saqarTveloSi mravali faqtoris gamo gvaqvs didi perspeqtiva MICE turizmis (sakonferencio turizmis) ganviTarebis kuTxiT, da am mimarTulebiT, swored 2015 wlidan gadaidgmeba mniSvnelovani nabijebi. wels turizmis erovnuli administracia ganaxorcielebs turizmis mcire infrastruqturis ganviTarebas, saqarTvelos cnobadobis amaRlebas msoflioSi, marketinguli aqtivobebis implemen-

tacias – rogorc saerTaSoriso, ise Sida bazrebze, turistuli produqtebis ganviTarebas da servisis xarisxis gasaumjobeseblad, sxvadasxva treningebis organizebas. mzardia saqarTvelos aviaciis bazari, rac Tavis mxriv xels uwyobs saqarTveloSi turizmis seqtoris ganviTarebas. Cven vimuSavebT, raTa xeli SevuwyoT axali aviakompaniebis Semosvlas da arsebuli aviakompaniebis mier saqmianobis gafarToebas. mniSvnelovania kulturuli turizmis ganviTareba, saqarTvelos unikalurobisa da auTenturobis warmoCena, da rac mTavaria samomavlod SenarCuneba, legendebis gacocxleba, rac Cvens tradiciebs kidev ufro warmoaCens, da dagvexmareba, saqarTvelo ucxoeli turistebisaTvis gacilebiT mimzidveli gavxadoT. umniSvnelovanesi amocana iqneba momsaxurebis xarisxis gaumjobesebac da am mimarTulebiT aqtiurad vmuSaobT. vgegmavT, rom organizeba gavuwioT treningebs turizmis biznesSi CarTuli pirebisTvis. CvenTvis kerZo seqtorTan TanamSromlobis gaRrmaveba uaRresad mniSvnelovania. amitom kidev ufro gavaZlierebT TanamSromlobas turistul asociaciebTan da konkretulad turizmis sferoSi moRvawe kompaniebTan. gveqneba mWidro koordinacia turizmis mrCevelTa sabWosTan, aseve vqmniT marketingis sabWos da momsaxurebis xarisxis gaumjobesebis sabWos – imisaTvis, rom ufro efeqtiani gavxadoT Cveni administraciis muSaoba. 2015 wels saqarTvelo or masStabur saerTaSoriso RonisZiebas – evropis axalgazrdul olimpiadas da `uefas~ superTass umaspinZlebs. dagegmilia sportuli infarstruqturis evropuli standartebis mixedviT ganaxleba da olimpiuri soflis aSeneba. am RonisZiebebis farglebSi, Tbilisi 10 000-ze met vizitors umaspinZlebs. garda amisa, wels, pirvelad TbilisSi da pirvelad kavkasiaSi evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis bankis (EBRD) yovelwliuri Sexvedra da biznesforumi gaimarTeba. velodebiT maRali rangis stumrebs, samTavrobo delegaciebs da biznesis da saerTaSoriso organizaciebis warmomadgenlebs, rac kidev ufro aamaRlebs saqarTvelos, rogorc turistuli daniSnulebis adgilis cnobadobas. n

giorgi CogovaZe: saqarTvelos turizmis erovnuli administraciis xelmZRvaneli

142

saqarTvelo/politika

msoflio 2015

`mwvane ekonomika~ â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mdgradi ganviTarebis ualternativo arCevani

013 wlis pirvelsave TveebSi, mTavrobam, sxva prioritetebTan erTad, daiwyo aqtiuri muSaoba garemos sferoSi dagrovili problemebis gadaWraze. upirvelesad, saministros, romelic im droisTvis praqtikulad daSlili iyo, kvlav daubrunda srulfasovani saqmianobisaTvis aucilebeli funqciebi da danayofebi. paralelurad, mniSvnelovani Zalisxmeva daixarja struqturaSi saukeTeso Tanamedrove praqtikis dasanergad. gasul eqvs TveSi gaweuli saqmianobis Sedegad, saministro sagrZnoblad gaaqtiurda ekonomikuri blokis formatSi. amasTan, agrZelebs da aZlierebs garemosdacviTi principebis dacvas. am periodis ganmavlobaSi, mowinave saerTaSoriso praqtikaze dayrdnobiT, aqcenti movmarTeT `mwvane ekonomikis~ ganviTarebaze.

elguja xokriSvili: garemosa da bunebrivi resursebis dacvis ministri

qarTuli ekonomikuri azris zogierTi, rogorc wesi, kvazilibertarianuli mimarTulebis mimdevrebi, aqtiurad cdiloben mdgradi ganviTarebis modeli `daadanaSaulon~ ekonomikis zrdis tempebis SeferxebaSi, magram Zalian uWirT adekvaturi argumentaciis warmodgena, vinaidan `mwvane ekonomika~, Tavisi arsiT, dinamikurad ufro efeqtiani modelia `yavisferTan~ SedarebiT da Sesabamisad, gaugebari rCeba konkretulad ra faqtorebi ganapirobebs negatiur Sedegs. aseve, mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos, rom `mwvane ekonomikisaken~ iswrafvian ara marto `dinj~ dasavleTSi, aramed ekonomikuri zrdis gacilebiT maRali tempebis mqone aRmosavlur saxelmwifoebSic. wina periodis calkeuli iniciativebis miuxedavad, saqarTveloSi `mwvane ekonomikis~ formireba axali dawyebulia, rac mravali gamowvevis paralelurad, imis Sanssac gvaZlevs, rom msoflioSi am droisaTvis dagrovili gamocdileba gavaanalizoT da daSvebuli Secdomebi ar gavimeoroT. upirvelesad, es exeba saxelmwifos rolis sworad gansazRvras. sxvaTa msgavsad, ekonomikaSi am tipis Carevac qirurgiul sizustes saWiroebs, rac Cven Zalian kargad gvesmis. Tu qarTuli ekonomikis ganviTarebis determinantebs Soris turizms, soflis meurneobas, teqnologiur habsa da servisebis eqsports ganvixi-

lavT, Tanamedrove tendenciebis fonze, `mwvane ekonomika~ gacilebiT maRal konkurentulobas da mdgradobas gvpirdeba globalur bazrebze, vidre `yavisferi~, da es suraTi arsebiTad ar Seicvleba, prioritetad sxva sabaziso seqtorebis gansazRvris SemTxvevaSic ki. saqarTveloSi `mwvane ekonomikis~ ganviTarebis xelSesawyobad garemosa da bunebrivi resursebis dacvis saministro aqtiurad TanamSromlobs ekonomikisa da mdgradi ganviTarebis saminitrosTan. ekoturizmi (mdgradi turizmi), narCenebis, atmosferuli haeris, wylis resursebis marTva; klimatis cvlilebis saadaptacio RonisZiebebi; ganaxlebadi energia (mzis, qaris, geoTermuli, biogazi); biomravalferovnebis marTva da ekosistemebi, miwis marTva da ekologiuri sufTa sakvebis xelSewyoba, mwvane produqciis warmoeba, mwvane Senobebi da sufTa transporti (alternatiuli sawvavi, eleqtromanqanebi, sazogadoebrivi transporti) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; es is ZiriTadi mimarTulebebia, romelzec saministro aqtiurad muSaobs. Cveni mTavrobis inicirebiT mimdinareobs proeqti `mwvane ekonomika evrokavSiris aRmosavleT partniorobis qveynebSi~ (EaP Green), romelic miznad isaxavs aRmosavleT partniorobis qveynebSi bunebriv da adamianur resursebze zianis miyenebis gareSe `mwvane ekonomikuri~ zrdis xelSewyobis meqanizmebis ganviTarebas, `mwvane ekonomikis~ mniSvnelobis Sesaxeb cnobierebis amaRlebas da gamocdilebis gaziarebas, ekologiurad sufTa produqciis warmoebisa da momsaxurebis miwodebis xelSewyobas. saqarTvelo 2013 wels SeuerTda `mwvane xidis~ partniorobis programas (Green Bridge Partnership Programme). programis ZiriTadi miznebia: `mwvane investiciebis~ xelSewyoba, ganviTarebuli qveynebidan ganviTarebad qveynebSi axali teqnologiebis danergva, `mwvane samuSao adgilebis~ Seqmna, `mwvane zrdisa~ da `mwvane ekonomikis~ ganviTarebis xelSewyoba. programis mTavari sferoebia: ekosistemebis dacva, sakvebis usafrTxoeba, urbanuli infrastruqtura, klimatis cvlilebis adaptacia da bunebrivi katastrofebi. prioritetulia aseve `mwvane biznesis~ mxardaWeris programa. igi miznad isaxavs xeli Seuwyos bizness, romelic moqmedebs garemosdacviTi standartebisa da socialuri pasuxismgeblobis dacviT. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTveloSi, msoflio bankis daxmarebiT, mimdinareobs garemos mdgomareobis Sesaxeb seqtoruli kvleva. kvlevis Sedegebis mixedviT, momavali wlisTvis, momzaddeba qveynis garemosdacviTi Sefasebis dokumenti, romelSic Sefasebuli iqneba arsebuli ekologiuri problemebi, garemos degradaciisa da bunebrivi resursebis araracionaluri gamoyenebis socialuri da ekonomikuri danaxarjebi. `mwvane ekonomika~ saqarTvelos mdgradi ganviTarebis ualternativo arCevani da evrointegraciis procesis erT-erTi prioritetuli mizania. mTavrobis erTiani politikis farglebSi, garemosa da bunebrivi resursebis saministro, sxva sakvanZo uwyebebTan koordinaciiT, aqtiurad gaagrZelebs am sakiTxebze muSaobas. n

saqarTvelo/politika

msoflio 2015

143

meti mxardaWera da meti monitoringi ianoS hermani

evrokavSiris elCi saqarTveloSi, misi aRmatebuleba, batoni ianoS hermani saqarTvelos mouwodebs, kidev ufro gaaZlieros Zalauflebis gadanawileba da xelisuflebis Stoebis urTierTkontroli

anvris dasawyisSi, roca samsaxurSi davbrundi, magidaze isev nacnobi saqaRaldeebi melodeboda. bevr maTgans mikruli hqonda warwera `saswrafo~.

ianvari dekemberSi dawyebuli saqmeebidan gamomdinareobs, 2014 ki datvirTuli da movlenebiT daxunZluli weli iyo, radganac evrokavSirma saqarTvelosTan da sxva aRmosavlel partniorebTan asocirebis xelSekrulebas moawera xeli. ukrainis krizisze gamoxmaurebac aucilebeli iyo. evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris gaformebuli asocirebis xelSekrulebis ganxorcieleba 2015

politikisa da praqtikis asocirebis dokumentebis standartebTan SesabamisobaSi moyvana. mTavrobis bolo iniciativebic adasturebs, rom reformebis mizani sisxlis samarTlis gamoZiebebisa da devnis meti miukerZoebloba da gamWvirvalobaa. aseve darwmunebuli var, rom 2015 wels adamianis uflebaTa standartebis, antidiskriminaciuli kanonmdeblobisa da umciresobaTa uflebebis dacva ufro efeqtiani gaxdeba. evrokavSiri gaagrZelebs saqarTvelosTan intensiur muSaobas SeTanxmebuli viza-liberalizaciis procesis droulad ganxorcielebisTvis. 2015 weli mniSvnelovani daskvnebis weli iqneba evrokavSiris samezoblo politikis, aseve aRmosavleT partniorobis momavlis Sesaxeb. mogexsenebaT, rom aRmosavleT partniorobis samiti maisSi, rigaSi gaimarTeba. is, ra Tqma unda, evrokavSirisa da saqarTvelos urTierTobebis perspeqtivazec iqoniebs gavlenas. rac Seexeba ruseTis nabijebs ruseTis federaciasa da saqarTvelos or regionTan â&#x20AC;&#x201C; afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTTan egreT wodebuli `xelSekrulebis~ gaformebasTan dakavSirebiT, unda aRiniSnos, rom

2015 mokled `2015 mniSvnelovani daskvnebis weli iqneba evrokavSiris samezoblo politikis momavlis, aseve aRmosavleT partniorobis Sesaxeb, romlis samitic maisSi, rigaSi gaimarTeba~

2015 wels Cven mxars davuWerT konfliqtebis mSvidobian mogvarebasTan dakavSirebul yvela qarTul Zalisxmevasa da iniciativas wels ufro meti tempiT ganxorcieldeba da gacilebiT swrafad wavalT politikuri asocirebisa da ekonomikuri integraciisken. es, Tavis mxriv, met sargebels mogvitans, Tumca Semdeg etapze gadagviyvans, sadac moTxovnebic metia. dRemde miRweuli winsvlis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelo, rogorc asocirebuli partniori, ufro met mxardaWeras miiRebs, Tumca aseve gacilebiT seriozuli dakvirvebis fokusSi moeqceva. mosalodnelia, rom evrokavSiris wevri saxelmwifoebis parlamentebi asocirebis xelSekrulebis ratifikacias swrafad ganaxorcieleben. evrokavSiri daiwyebs TanamSromlobis programis realizebas regionebisa da soflebis ganviTarebis, mcire da saSualo sawarmoTa waxalisebis, marTlmsajulebis reformis xelSewyobisa da sxva sferoebSi. 2015 wels saqarTvelos ekonomika, savaraudod, daaxloebiT 5-procentian zrdas gaagrZelebs. evrokavSirTan Tavisufali savaWro reJimis pirveli dadebiTi Sedegebic, savaraudod, SesamCnevi gaxdeba. saqarTvelos meti Zalisxmeva sWirdeba, rom reformebi win waswios da evrokavSiris kanonebTan daaxloebis saWiro zRvars miuaxlovdes. imedi gvaqvs, rom am wels saqarTveloSi politikuri klimati Serbildeba, qveyana demokratiis konsolidacias ganaxorcielebs da ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis gadaudebel amocanebze yuradRebas gaamaxvilebs. am mxriv, Cven `vaqezebT~ saqarTvelos, kidev ufro gaaZlieros Zalauflebis gadanawileba da xelisuflebis Stoebis urTierTkontroli. marTlmsajulebis reforma dRis wesrigis mniSvnelovan sakiTxad darCeba; gagrZeldeba marTlmsajulebis

evrokavSiri srulad aRiarebs saqarTvelos suverenitetsa da teritoriul mTlianobas. 2015 wels Cven mxars davuWerT konfliqtebis mSvidobian mogvarebasTan dakavSirebul yvela qarTul Zalisxmevasa da iniciativas. evrokavSirma axlaxan gaugrZela mandati sakuTari monitoringis misias, romelic am teritoriebze stabilurobis SenarCunebis erTerTi mTavari meqanizmia. amavdroulad, evrokavSiri yvelanairad Seecdeba dialogis xelSewyobas da mzadyofnas acxadebs, iTanamSromlos am ori regionis mosaxleobasTan. yvelam viciT, rom saqarTvelosTan asocireba, Tavisi SinaarsiT, grZelvadiani transformaciaa, rasac didi Sroma da araerTi weli dasWirdeba. Tumca, 2015 wlis dasawyisisTanave unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom cvlilebaTa didi nawilis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi swored axla gamoCndeba da farTo sazogadoebisTvis TvalsaCino gaxdeba. n

ianoS hermani: evrokavSiris elCi saqarTveloSi

144

saqarTvelo/politika

msoflio 2015

aSS saqarTvelos mxardaWeras gaagrZelebs mWidro TanamSromlobas SevinarCunebT da mas Sekavebasa da diplomatiaze dafuZnebuli erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiis ganviTarebaSi davexmarebiT. aSS-is samxedroebis qarTvel kolegebTan CarTuloba, saqarTvelos ukeTes partniorad aqcevs saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis gamowvevebze sapasuxod avRaneTsa da centraluri afrikis respublikaSi, sadac mosaxleobis raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelos samxedro monawileoba ricxobrivad mniSvnelovnad aRemateba sxva qveynebis wvlils. wvrTnis programebis, portebSi samxedro gemebis Semosvlisa da erToblivi samxedro wvrTnebis gagrZeleba xels Seuwyobs saqarTvelos samxedroebs gaiumjobeson TavdacviTi SesaZleblobebi da uzrunvelyon NATOsa da sxva saerTaSoriso ZalebTan Tavsebadoba. mesame – veliT, rom 2015 wels ekonomikur sakiTxebSi TanamSromloba ufro intensiuri gaxdeba, rac Sedegia im rigi molaparakebebisa, romelic

2015 mokled veliT, rom 2015 wels ekonomikur sakiTxebSi TanamSromloba ufro intensiuri gaxdeba, rac Sedegia im rigi molaparakebebisa, romelic safuZvels uqmnis vaWrobisa da investiciebis sferoSi TanamSromlobis zrdas

pirvelad saqarTveloSi dainergeba amerikuli universitetis xarisxis (san-diegos saxelmwifo universiteti) saswavlo programa riCard norlandi

`saqarTvelos... Sekavebasa da diplomatiaze dafuZnebuli erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiis ganviTarebaSi davexmarebiT~

riCard norlandi: amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis elCi saqarTveloSi

015 wels, amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi moelis momavalze orientirebuli dRis wesrigis gagrZelebas, romelic kavkasiis regionSi seriozuli gamowvevebis winaSe mdgom strategiul partniorTan erTad CamovayalibeT. postsabWoTa sivrceSi saqarTvelo kvlav demokratiuli ganviTarebis nimuSia. zogi amas safrTxed miiCnevs, magram politikuri da ekonomikuri ganviTarebisadmi saqarTvelos midgoma sasargebloa misi mosaxleobisTvis da qveyana axali abreSumis gzaze aRmosavleTisa da dasavleTis damakavSirebel sasicocxlo xidisa da satranzito rgolis funqcias asrulebs. saqarTvelos mier, garedan momavali zemoqmedebis gareSe, sakuTari momavlis gansazRvris Zalisxmevis mxardaWeras, aSS momavalSic gaagrZelebs. 2009 wlis ianvarSi xelmowerili strategiuli partniorobis qartiis farglebSi, aSS da saqarTvelo oTxi mimarTulebiT TanamSromloben: pirveli – Cveni erToblivi muSaoba saqarTvelos demokratiuli institutebisa da kanonis uzenaesobis ganmtkicebis mizniT gagrZeldeba. dinamikuri media da aqtiuri samoqalaqo sazogadoeba gadamwyvet rols TamaSobs, xolo aSS ganagrZobs mTavrobasTan, opoziciasTan, parlamentTan, sasamarTlo sistemasTan da arasamTavrobo organizaciebTan TanamSromlobas saqarTvelos mier ukanaskneli oci wlis mniSvnelovani miRwevebis gasamyareblad da gasagrZeleblad, rac bolo periodSi maRali demokratiuli standartebis Sesabamisi sami Tanmimdevruli arCevnebiT dadasturda. meore – saqarTvelosTan usafrTxoebis sferoSi

safuZvels uqmnis vaWrobisa da investiciebis sferoSi TanamSromlobis zrdas. energetika, tranzituli infrastruqtura, turizmi da soflis meurneoba – is sferoebia, sadac aSS-saqarTvelos ekonomikur urTierTobebs didi potenciali aqvs. Cveni azriT, savaWro-ekonomikur sakiTxebze maRali donis dialogi am sferoebSi Sedegiani iqneba. dabolos: migvaCnia, rom jandacvisa da ganaTlebis sferoebSi sajaro da kerZo seqtorebs Soris uprecedento TanamSromloba Cveni strategiuli partniorobis xalxTaSorisi urTierTobebis ganzomilebas axal sicocxles SesZens. magaliTad, aTaswleulis gamowvevis kompaqtiT ganaTlebis sferoSi profesiuli da umaRlesi ganaTlebis programebi 140 milioni dolaris odenobiT dafinansdeba. maT Soris, pirvelad saqarTveloSi dainergeba amerikuli universitetis xarisxis (san-diegos saxelmwifo universiteti) saswavlo programa. am sferoebSi Cveni TanamSromlobis ZiriTadi principi saerTaSoriso samarTlisadmi, saqarTvelos suverenitetisa da teritoriuli mTlianobisadmi Cveni erTgulebiT gamoixateba. warsulidan momdinare konfliqtebze molaparakebebSi warmatebis miRwevamde, qarTvelebis, afxazebisa da osebis gamyof xelovnur sazRvrebs miRma mcxovreb yvela adamians Tavisuflad urTierTobis saSualeba unda mieces. gasul wels xelmowerili asocirebis xelSekrulebis Sedegad, 2015 wels mosalodnelia evropasTan saqarTvelos kidev ufro mWidro daaxloeba. gvjera, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis yuradReba momavlisken iqneba mipyrobili. qveyanaSic da ucxoeTSic, saerTo interesebisa da mSvidobiani Tanacxovrebis miRwevaSi, saqarTvelos winsvla eqneba. amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi mocemuli miznebis miRwevas dauWers mxars, xolo 2015 wels am SesaniSnav qveyanasTan Cveni strategiuli partnioroba ganviTardeba. n

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/politika

145

msoflio krizisebis reJimSi orTvin henigi

`SeuZlia Tu ara saqarTvelos zogadi tendenciis sawinaaRmdego mimarTulebiT moZraoba?~ – kiTxulobs saqarTveloSi germaniis elCi, misi aRmatebuleba, batoni orTvin henigi

015 wels msoflio darRveuli wesrigiT Sexvda. STabeWdileba rCeba, rom politika da saerTaSoriso wesrigi globalur gamowvevebTan gamklavebas TiTqmis veRar axerxebs. 2015 wels krizisi Cveulebriv movlenad iqceva, sagangebo situacia ki – normad. saerTaSoriso tendenciisgan gansxvavebiT, 2015 weli saqarTvelosTvis konsolidaciis weli SeiZleba gaxdes. sagareo da saSinao politikaSi SesaZloa simSvidem daisadguros. aseTi simSvide saSualebas miscems mTavrobas, koncentrirdes Zireuli reformebis gatarebaze rogorc qveynis SigniT (ara marto asocirebis dRis wesrigiT gaTvaliswinebul farglebSi), aseve ekonomikaSi. soflis meurneobisa da profesiuli ganaTlebis sferoebSi saswrafod gasatarebelia Semdgomi struqturuli reformebi. erovnuli erTianobis miznis SesanarCuneblad aucilebelia okupirebuli regionebis mimarT arsebuli politikis gadaxedva. 2015 weli aris pirveli weli arCevnebis gareSe 2011 wlis Semdeg, da amave dros es bolo welia Semdeg saparlamento arCevnebamde. 2014 wels, asocirebis SeTanxmebis xelmoweriTa da ratificirebiT, saqarTvelom didi nabiji gadadga evropel xalxTa ojaxSi dasabruneblad, romelsac is istoriulad da kul-

sademarkacio xazis orive mxares mcxovrebi xalxis interesebidan gamomdinare, visurvebdi politikas, romelic amoavsebs arsebul ufskrulebs da ar gaaRrmavebs maT turulad ekuTvnis. Tumca asocirebis SeTanxmeba mokle xanSi saswauls ver moaxdens, piriqiT – sanam misi ganxorcieleba saqarTvelos sargebels moutans, manamde igi saqarTvelos ekonomikisa da mosaxleobisaTvis dakavSirebuli iqneba xarjebTan da datvirTvasTan. magram es ar unda aRiqmebodes rogorc tvirTi, aramed rogorc Sansi da investicia qveynis momavlisaTvis. saqarTvelo dauaxlovdeba evrokavSirTan uvizo mimosvlis mizans. moxdeba Tu ara es maisSi, aRmosavleT partniorebis rigis samitze, ubralo varaudebad rCeba. mTavrobam axla unda ganaxorcielos ukve damtkicebuli, aucilebeli reformebi. ra Tqma unda, saqarTvelos moqalaqeebisaTvis evrokavSirSi uvizo mgzavrobis saSualebis miniWeba iqneboda mTavrobis warmateba da misi dasavluri orientaciisadmi ndobis dasturi. okupirebul regionebTan mimarTebaSi ki saqarT-

velom afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis mosaxleoba unda daarwmunos ekonomikisa da sazogadoebis demokratizaciamodernizaciis sakuTari modelis sisworeSi. amisaTvis saWiroa dialogis axali formatebi da axali gabeduli midgomebi saqarTvelos qmedebebSi am regionebisa da misi mosaxleobisadmi. mxolod ase SeuZlia Tbiliss SeinarCunos sademarkacio xazis SedarebiTi gamtarianoba, moaxdinos sakuTari Tavis, rogorc ruseTze ukeTesi alternativis pozicionireba da darCes mniSvnelovan politikur moTamaSed. qarTvelebis, afxazebisa da osebisaTvis dialogis SeZlebisdagvarad bevri arxis gaxsnis gziT, isev yoveldRiur movlenad unda iqces erTmaneTTan sxvadasxva Temaze saubari. sademarkacio xazis orive mxares mcxovrebi xalxis interesebidan gamomdinare, visurvebdi politikas, romelic amoavsebs arsebul ufskrulebs da ar gaaRrmavebs maT, visurvebdi politikas, romelic misdevs TanamSromlobis gegmas da politikas, romelic erTobliv momavals isev da isev ar daCrdilavs erToblivi warsuliT. saqarTvelos ar SeuZlia Tavisi geografiuli mdebareobis Secvla, amitom man unda moZebnos Modus Vivendi moskovTan da amavdroulad gaagrZelos dasavluri orientaciiT svla. mTavrobam momavalSic ar unda Tqvas uari moskovTan dialogze. mxolod ase iqneba SesaZlebeli ruseTis darwmuneba imaSi, rom saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan integracia sxvis winaaRmdeg ar aris mimarTuli. moskovis gareSe afxazeTTan da cxinvalis regionTan urTierTobebis gaumjobesebac ver moxdeba. saqarTveloSi germania tradiciulad didi avtoritetiT sargeblobs. Cveni urTierToba, Rrma warsulidan arsebuli kontaqtebidan gamomdinare, myaria da gamZle. 2012 wlis Semodgomaze xelisuflebaSi momxdari cvlilebebis Semdeg, Cveni qveynebis urTierTobebSi isev dadebiTi dinamika SeiniSneba. ase unda gagrZeldes 2015 welsac: germaniis federaluri kancleris dagegmili viziti am wlis kidev erTi mniSvnelovani movlena iqneba. 2015 weli saqarTvelos aZlevs Sanss, sabolood daadges evropul gzas, romelic aerTianebs liberaluri da demokratiuli samarTlebrivi saxelmwifosa da (socialuri) sabazro ekonomikis mcnebas. imedi viqonioT, rom es Sansi gare pirobebis gauaresebis gamo ar daikargeba. n

2015 mokled saqarTvelos moqalaqeebisaTvis evrokavSirSi uvizo mgzavrobis saSualebis miniWeba iqneboda mTavrobis warmateba da misi dasavluri orientaciisadmi ndobis dasturi

orTvin henigi: saqarTveloSi germaniis elCi

146

saqarTvelo/politika

msoflio 2015

evroatlantikur arCevans seriozuli gamowvevebi axlavs 2015 mokled

viqtor doliZe

`2015 wlis maisSi, rigaSi dagegmil aRmosavleT partniorobis samits saqarTvelosTvis udidesi datvirTva aqvs~

`dasavleli partniorebisgan saqarTvelos kidev ufro qmediTi daxmareba esaWiroeba~

viqtor doliZe: saqarTvelos parlamentis deputati („Tavisufali demokratebi“)

vropuli arCevani qarTveli xalxis arCevania, romelic efuZneba mis Rirebulebebs, istoriasa da tradiciebs. dRes saqarTvelosTvis axali epoqa dadga da movida swored gardamtexi cvlilebebis dro. 2014 weli saqarTvelosa da evrokavSiris urTierTobaSi uprecedento dinamikurobiT gamoirCeoda. bunebrivia, es procesi evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris urTierTobebis ganvlilma warmatebulma safexurebma ganapiroba, romelic jer kidev 1992 wels daiwyo, rogorc ki saqarTvelom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg damoukidebloba aRadgina. gasuli wlebis ganmavlobaSi saqarTvelom evropasTan politikuri asocirebisa da ekonomikuri integraciis gzaze kargi fundamenti moamzada, romelic gulisxmobs evrokavSirSi integraciisaTvis realuri, qmediTi da gabeduli nabijebis gadadgmas. dRes sakanonmdelo cvlilebebis mniSvnelovani nawili evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizacias da daaxloebas emsaxureba, da erovnul interesebs asaxavs. saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobis evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizacia aucilebelia mosaxleobisTvis cxovrebis Rirseuli pirobebis Sesaqmnelad. gagviCnda SesaZlebloba imisa, rom gavaZlieroT saxelmwifo institutebi, SevqmnaT qveynis marTvis demokratiuli, qmediTi sistema, ganvaxorcieloT seqtoruli reformebi, gavaZlieroT qveynis Tavdacvisunarianoba, ganvaviTaroT ekonomika, saerTaSoriso standartebis Sesabamisi, kargi ganaTleba mivceT momaval Taobebs, SevqmnaT Cveni Tanamoqalaqeebis keTildReobis realuri perspeqtiva da Rirseuli adgili davimkvidroT evropul da evroatlantikur ojaxSi. sagareo politikis ganxorcielebaSi parlaments didi wvlili miuZRvis. bolo wlebSi saparlamento diplomatiam iseTi urTierTkavSirebi da platformebi Seqmna, romelic qveynis interesebis, teritoriuli mTlianobis mxardaWeris, erovnuli usafrTxoebisa da regionuli poziciebis gamyarebas emsaxureba. aRsaniSnavia saparlamento komitetebis, mudmivmoqmedi delegaciebisa da megobrobis jgufebis urTierToba evrokavSiris institutebTan, evropis erovnul parlamentebTan, saparlamento asambleebTan, saerTaSoriso analitikur centrebTan da saerTaSoriso arasamTavrobo organizaciebTan. evropasTan integraciis komiteti aqtiurad aris CarTuli evroparlamentTan Seqmnil saparlamento TanamSromlobis formatebSi. evropul da evroatlantikur arCevans bunebrivia

axlavs seriozuli gamowvevebi, romelic ruseTis federaciam saqarTvelos, ukrainasa da moldovas Seuqmna. ruseTis qmedebebma da teritoriebis okupaciam safrTxis winaSe daayena ara mxolod saqarTvelos, ukrainisa da moldovas ganviTareba, aramed igi gaxda regionuli da mTlianad evropuli usafrTxoebis mTavari saSiSroeba. am periodSi saqarTvelos dasavleli partniorebisgan kidev ufro qmediTi daxmareba esaWiroeba. evrokavSiris mier saqarTvelosaTvis mocemuli saSinao davalebebis fonze, romlis Sesrulebac Zalze Zviri daujda Cvens qveyanas, saWiroa ufro praqtikuli moqmedebebi, romelic erTxel da samudamod naTels gaxdis ruseTisaTvis, rom Zlieri, stabiluri da ganviTarebuli saqarTvelo aris garanti regionuli, da maT Soris, ruseTis usafrTxoebisa. am mxriv did mniSvnelobas vaniWebT erT-erT yvelaze qmediT instruments – aRmosavleTis partniorobas, romelic evrokavSiris wevri qveynebis mier saqarTvelos daxmarebisaTvis qmediTi nabijebis gadadgmis did SesaZleblobas iZleva. evrokavSirsa da aRmosavleT evropul saxelmwifoebs Soris urTierTobas erTi maxasiaTebeli aqvs – evrokavSiris pozicias xSirad mniSvnelovnad gansazRvraven axali wevri qveynebi centraluri evropidan da baltiispireTidan. poloneTi, ungreTi, CexeTi, litva, latvia, estoneTi – is saxelmwifoebia, romlebsac yofili sabWoTa kavSiris wevri qveynebis specifika kargad esmiT, gare da Sida faqtorebs ukeTesad afaseben da integraciis donis gaRrmavebisTvis Zalisxmevas ar iSureben. saqarTvelos evropuli da evroatlantikuri kursis Seuqcevadoba didwilad damokidebulia swored am qveynebTan axlo TanamSromlobaze. evrokavSiris wevr saxelmwifoebTan urTierTobis gaRrmavebisaTvis evropasTan integraciis komitetma daamkvidra urTierTgagebis memorandumebis gaformeba Tavisi profilis saparlamento komitetebTan. saqarTvelom evrokavSirTan savizo reJimis liberalizaciis samoqmedo gegmis pirveli faza warmatebiT daasrula. meore fazaze gadasvla da evrokavSiris mxridan saqarTvelos progresis aRniSvna Zalian sasixarulo faqtia. 2015 wlis maisSi, rigaSi dagegmil aRmosavleT partniorobis samits saqarTvelosTvis udidesi datvirTva aqvs, sadac aucileblad unda moxdes sami yvelaze mniSvnelovani faqtis deklarireba: saqarTvelosaTvis evropuli perspeqtivis oficialurad miniWeba, saqarTvelosa da evrokavSirs Soris uvizo mimosvlis gadawyvetilebis miReba da asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis ratifikaciis procesis daCqareba evrokavSiris wevri qveynebis mier. asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmeba saqarTvelos aZlevs saSualebas, rom evropul institutebTan moxdes struqturirebuli daaxloeba. darwmunebuli var, saqarTvelo asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis ganxorcielebis process warmatebiT gaarTmevs Tavs. rogorc Cans, arc 2015 weli iqneba ioli msoflio demokratiuli TanamegobrobisaTvis, Tumca Rrmad mwams, rom erTiani ZalisxmeviT, gegmazomieri da Sedegze orientirebuli nabijebiT mivaRwevT saerTo evropuli usafrTxoebisa da stabilurobis damkvidrebas. n

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/politika

147

xelisufleba unda mixvdes Tu `visTvis reks zari~

daviT darCiaSvili

`mTavrobis adekvaturobis xarisxi gadamwyveti faqtoria~

amyaro globaluria da Cveni momavalic gardauvlad ukavSirdeba saerTaSoriso tendenciebs. magram, rogorc amboben, `yvelanairi politika lokaluria~. hoda mec qarTul WrilSi Sevexebi universalurs. yovelwliurad, qveynis mdgomareobas xelisuflebis qmedebebi gansazRvravs. mTavroba ar aris bedis damdgeni, magram Sida Tu gare gamowvevebTan mimarTebaSi misi adekvaturobis xarisxi gadamwyveti faqtoria. Tu xarisxi maRalia, problemebi iklebs, Tu arada, matulobs – sazogadoebrivi mRelvarebis donemdec adis. 2015 wlis gamowvevebi ki igive iqneba, rac wina wlebSi – rusuli imperializmi, siRaribe, sazogadoebaSi arsebuli kulturul-msoflmxedvelobrivi dapirispirebebi, politikuri elitis dayofa konfrontaciul dajgufebebad. 2014 weli saqarTvelos xelisuflebam iseTi SecdomebiT daamTavra, rasac evropis kavSirTan wlebis win momzadebuli da axla xelmoweril-ratificirebuli asocirebis SeTanxmeba ver gaaneitralebs. laris ryevas da komerciuli aqtivobis Senelebas kulturuli memkvidreobis Taobaze sazogadoebasTan dapirispireba daerTo. cota xanSi ki, rusuli agresiis winaaRmdeg ukrainaSi mebrZoli qarTveli meomrebis Seuracxmyofelma samTavrobo (Tavdacvis saministro) gancxadebam yvelaferi gadafara. sazogadoebriv reaqcias mohyva xelisuflebis dabneuloba da sityvebis ukan waReba. didi mniSvneloba aRar aqvs, ar icodnen da gancxadeba ise gaCnda, Tu maT Tqves da gadaTqves. magaliTebi aCvenebs, rom mTavroba ver axerxebs movlenebis logikis Tu sazogadoebis gulisTqmis gagebas, da erTaderTi, raSic Tanamimdevrulia, oponentebis mimarT ciliswamebis kampania da maTi liderebis devnaa (es xdeba rogorc dedaqalaqSi,

ise raionebSi). magram mTavrobas esec mzard Tavis tkivils uqmnis – euTos adamianis uflebaTa ofisis, aSS-is saxelmwifo departamentis gancxadebebisa da evroparlamentis rezoluciis kritikuli tonis saxiT. am reaqciebiT dabneul-gabrazebul adgilobriv demokratebs minda vkiTxo: rogor ggoniaT, dRevandeli mTavrobis `spikerebma~ ufro ician, ras niSnavs kanonis uzenaesoba, Tu zemoaRniSnuli dasavlur/ saerTaSoriso struqturebis warmomadgenlebma? rom giTxraT, Tu ra moxdeba 2015 wels, premierministris, ufro sworad ki, `qarTuli ocnebis~ Semqmnelis – biZina ivaniSvilis gulSi unda Cavixedo. rodesac amas vcdilob, mgonia vxedav or gancdasa Tu emocias – SiSs da boRmas. SiSi ufro ruseTis mmarTvelis, putinis mimarTaa, boRma ki – oponentebis mimarT. Tumca mgonia, rom raRac momentebSi xelisuflebis liderebi ufiqrdebian im realobasac, rom msoflios yvelaze gavleniani da mdidari centrebi putinis mimarT sul ufro ukompromisoni xdebian, saqarTvelos xelisuflebis adgilobriv oponentebs ki TanagrZnobiT uyureben. es zaris Semokvras hgavs da xelisufleba unda mixvdes, Tu `visTvis reks zari~. mokled, 2015 wlis msvleloba saqarTveloSi imaze xdeba damokidebuli, ramdenad SeZlebs xelisufleba, moerios Tavis emociebs da aRiqvas qveynis politikuri sistemis mravalferovneba. Tu es ver SeZlo, ar gamovricxav, rom proevropuli deklara-

2015 mokled Tu SevZeliT Sida SuRlis gadalaxva da tolerantobis gasigrZeganeba, putini Tavs Seikavebs, dasavleTs ki mudam vemaxsovrebiT

Znelia, mdevnels igive moTxovo, rac devnils ciebis miuxedavad, jerac aqtiuri putinis banakSi amoyos Tavi. dameTanxmebiT, es istoriis borblis waRma trialis tolfasi iqneba. SeiZleba vinmem Tqvas, rom arc oponentebi, gansakuTrebiT wina xelisuflebidan, wyaloben RaribaSvil-ivaniSvils da egeb maTac movTxovoT dawynarebao? ra Tqma unda, politelitis konstruqtiuloba ormxrivi moZraobis msgavsia, magram Znelia, mdevnels igive moTxovo, rac devnils – konfliqtologebi dameTanxmebian. saqarTvelos xelisuflebis vnebebi da zigzagisebri gamocdileba ar aris erTaderTi cvladi, romelic Cvens saerTo beds daRs daaCnevs 2015-Si. Cven ar viciT, iqneb SesaZlebelia, kidev ufro ar mouvideT TvalSi kremls, an davaviwydeT briuselsa da vaSingtons. magram mjera, rom Tu SevZeliT Sida (vgoneb, saukuneobrivi) SuRlis gadalaxva da tolerantobis gasigrZeganeba, putini Tavs Seikavebs, dasavleTs ki mudam vemaxsovrebiT. oRond davamTavreb, riTac daviwye: burTi mTavrobis moedanzea – politikis sistemuri maxasiaTeblebi iTxovs amas da ara mavanis politikuri gemovneba. P.S.: imeds vitoveb, rom 2015 wels Cveni qveynis formaluri mmarTveloba faqtobrivic gaxdeba da aRar gveqneba sanaRvlo, axalgazrda premieri marTla mTavrobis meTauria Tu sxvisgan marTuli kerZo korporaciis administratori. es ar gaxlavT progresis erTaderTi piroba, magram aucilebeli piroba ki udavod aris. n

daviT darCiaSvili: parlamentis deputati („erTiani nacionaluri moZraoba“)

148

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/ekonomika

mesiji biznesisgan guga canava

`SesaZloa calkeuli mRelvarebebi iyos, Tumca es ar iqneba imdenad Zlieri, rom investors qveynis datoveba an aq biznesis dawyebis gadadeba afiqrebinos~

ogadad, sainvesticio garemos Sefasebis gansxvavebuli kriteriumebi arsebobs, Tumca ar dagvaviwydes saerTo indikatorebic, romlebsac gansakuTrebulad aanalizeben investorebi, sainvesticio aqtivobis gansazRvrisas. am konteqstSi, investori upirvelesad akvirdeba ramdenad xelSeuxebelia qveyanaSi biznesi, rogoria usafrTxoebis garantiebi, ramdenad gamWvirvalea kanonmdebloba da ramdenad aqtiurad ereva saxelmwifo zedmeti regulaciebiT biznesSi. katastrofaa,

guga canava: `rakia jorjias~ direqtori

rodesac saxelmwifo biznesze zemoqmedebas aralegaluri formebiT cdilobs. sabednierod, dRes biznesi srulad aris Tavisufali. piradad me, ar msmenia xelisuflebis an romeliRac Cinovnikis mxridan konkretul biznesze an biznesmenze ganxorcielebuli zemoqmedebis Sesaxeb. Cemi dakvirvebiT, dRes xelisufleba ara mxolod usmens bizness, aramed, rac mTavaria, iTvaliswinebs mis azrs. Tqven albaT ukve iciT, rom xelisuflebam biznesis xelSesawyobad garkveuli regulaciebi miiRo. Cven am Temaze sasaubrod premier-ministrsac SevxvdiT da misasalmebelia, rodesac davinaxeT, rom Cveni SeniSvnebi gaiTvaliswines. saubari maqvs savizo regulaciebsa da SromiTi migraciis kanonmdeblobaze. am regulaciebis gamkacrebas bevri diskusia moyva. mTavrobam mogvismina da gaiTvaliswina Cveni argumentebi. ar SeiZleba qveyanaSi gamocdili da profesionali kadrebis Semodinebas barierebi xelovnurad SevuqmnaT. adgilobrivi kadrebis dasaqmebis waxaliseba ki biznesisa da konkretuli biznesmenis pasuxismgebloba unda iyos. vfiqrob, am mxriv erT-erTi gamosavali swori saganmanaTleblo politikis gatarebaa, rac adgi-

lobrivi kadrebis kvalifikaciis amaRlebisken da adgilobriv Tu saerTaSoriso bazarze maTi konkurentunarianobis gazrdisken unda iyos mimarTuli. Cveni kompania da piradad me, vmuSaobT imaze, rom adgilobrivma kadrebma kvalifikaciis amaRleba saqarTveloSive SeZlon. vTanamSromlobT universitetebTan da studentebs Cvens biznesgamocdilebas vuziarebT. es Cveni biznes-socpasuxismgeblobis erT-erTi aspeqtia – iseve, rogorc sxvadasxva saqvelmoqmedo fondebTan TanamSromloba. globalizaciis saukuneSi warmatebisTvis aucilebelia saerTaSoriso gamocdilebis gaTvaliswineba, gadawyvetilebebis swrafad miRebis unari, riskebis gaanalizeba da novaciebisTvis implementacia. kerZo sakuTrebisa da biznesis xelSeuxebloba, daculoba, Tanabari da gamWvirvale TamaSis wesebi, liberaluri sakanonmdeblo baza, konkurentunariani saganmanaTleblo sistema, saerTaSoriso sainvesticio institutebTan kooperacia – yvelaferi es, saboloo jamSi, saqarTvelos biznesisTvis mimzidvels xdis. ra Tqma unda, gasaTvaliswinebelia politikuri riskebic. Tumca, vfiqrob am SemTxvevaSi saqme gvaqvs ara Sida, aramed regionul politikur riskebTan. iciT, rom mTlianad msoflio dgas sxvadasxva tipis politikuri turbulenturobis winaSe, saqarTvelosTvis ki Sida riskebi minimizebulia. aravis surs Zaladoba da revolucia. xalxi daRvinda. yvelas mSvidi cxovreba, stabiluroba unda. 2015 wels SesaZloa calkeuli mRelvarebebi iyos, Tumca es ar iqneba imdenad Zlieri, rom investors qveynis datoveba an aq biznesis dawyebis gadadeba afiqrebinos. dRes saqarTveloSi biznesis sakeTeblad raime arsebiTi problemebi ar arsebobs. piradad me, rogorc biznesmeni,motivirebulad vgrZnob Tavs. Sesabamisad, Cveni kompania gegmavs rogorc ukve arsebuli proeqtebis gafarToebas, aseve axali proeqtebis dawyebas. `rakia jgufi~ 2014 wels investor kompaniaTa aTeulSi iyo. welsac ramdenime axal masStabur sainvesticio proeqts ganvixilavT. aqtiuri urTierToba maqvs Cems stenfordel kurselebTanac sxvadasxva qveynidan. rodesac isini mismenen, Tu rogori mimzidvelia aq biznesis warmoeba, saqarTveloSi investirebis didi interesi uCndebaT. isini akvirdebian faqtobrvad yvela sferos – turizmiTa da infrastruqturiT dawyebuli, warmoebiTa da uZravi qonebiT dasrulebuli. am adamianebisgan bevri saintereso idea momismenia da vvaraudob, rom ramdenime maTgani investirebis gadawyvetilebas miiRebs. Cveni mTavrobisTvis sastarto pozicia arasaxarbielo iyo. mosaxleobis ukidures imedgacruebas Zalian didi molodini moyva. idealizmi da maqsimalizmi zogadad Cveni mentalobis damaxasiaTebeli niSania. vfiqrob, Tu metad realistebi da pragmatulebi gavxdebiT, am rTul gzas ufro umtkivneulod gavivliT. zogadad, mimaCnia, rom biznesis warmomadgenlebs gadamwyveti roli gvaqvs qveynis ganviTarebaSi. gamoricxulia warmatebuli qveynis, solidaruli sazogadoebis aSeneba biznesis aqtiuri CarTulobis gareSe. saerTod, warmatebul biznesmenTa da zogadad, liderTa unikaluri Cvevaa zustad gansazRvron da marTon potenciuri riskebi. Cemi azriT, Tu racionalurad da erTad vimoqmedebT, qveynis ganviTareba Seuqcevadi gaxdeba. n

saqarTvelo/ekonomika

msoflio 2015

149

`mosavlis aRebis weli~ irakli kovzanaZe

vgegmavT, rom msxvil energetikul da turistul proeqtebs warmoebis seqtorsa da soflis meurneobis sferoebSi ramdenime saSualo zomis proeqtic SevmatoT

014 wels sapartnioro fondisTvis „turbulenturi“ periodis miuxedavad, fondma ramdenime mniSvnelovani proeqti warmatebiT daasrula da safuZveli axal proeqtebsac Cauyara. vfiqrob, es procesi, romelic investiciebis Semosvlas da ekonomikis gajansaRebas uwyobs xels, momdevno wlebSi kidev ufro intensiuri gaxdeba. rac mTavaria, gasul wels dawyebul ramdenime proeqts 2015-Si davasrulebT. wlevandeli weli nayofierad daviwyeT da ukve ianvris TveSi erT-erTi warmatebuli proeqti – xuTvarskvlaviani sastumro kompleqsi `RIXOS borjomi~

mSeneblobas daviwyebT. rac yvelaze sasixaruloa, am hidroeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba mosaxleobis gasaxlebas ar saWiroebs da arc raime ekologiuri saSiSroebis albaTobas warmoSobs. misi potenciuri gamomuSaveba 1.2 mlrd kvt/sT iqneba, romelic mTlianad adgilobriv bazars moxmardeba da SemodgomazamTris periodSi importis Canacvlebas daexmareba. proeqtis sainvesticio Rirebuleba miliardi aSS dolaria, xolo Cveni partniori – koreuli kompania K Water-ia. gasul wels, statiaSi dagpirdiT, rom 2014-Si ramdenime proeqtis ganxorcielebas daviwyebdiT. erTerTi maTgania samSeneblo masalebis – e.w. `sendviCpanelebis~ proeqti, romelic TiTqmis dasrulebulia da sawarmos male gavxsniT. sawarmo ukve aSenebulia q. rusTavis gzatkecilze, amJamad danadgarebis damontaJeba mimdinareobs da 2015 wlis gazafxulidan warmoeba daiwyeba.

2015 mokled am wlis gazafxulze, rogorc ki klimaturi pirobebi xels Segviwyobs, svaneTSi, mdinare nenskraze, 280 megavati simZlavris hidroeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobas daviwyebT

fondis sainvesticio proeqtebis Rirebuleba 2 mlrd dolaramde gaizarda gavxseniT. turistul bazarze dabrunda kurorti, romelic warsulSi popularuli da erT-erTi gamorCeuli dasasvenebeli adgili iyo. likanis proeqtze ori weli vimuSaveT, finansuri modeli SevkariT da aqcenti balneologiursamkurnalo spa-mimarTulebaze gavakeTeT. 48 mln aSS dolaris jamuri investiciiT, fondma da yazaxurma kompania `yazmunaigazma~ e.w. IV sammarTvelos teritoriaze es Tanamedrove sastumro kompleqsi avaSeneT. 151-nomrian sastumro kompleqsSi yvelaferia imisTvis, rom nebismierma, Tundac yvelaze pretenziulma damsvenebelma, Tavi komfortulad igrZnos. turizmis sferoSi sxva siaxleebic gvaqvs: wyaltubos spa-kurortis asaRorZineblad, saerTaSoriso sakonsultacio kompania Kohl & Partner-Tan erTad mis axal koncefciaze vimuSaveT, romelmac bevri saintereso detali gamokveTa. am koncefciaze dayrdnobiT, mTavroba wels seriozul gadawyvetilebebs miiRebs, raTa daiwyos potenciuri investoris moZiebis procesi da dasvenebisa da gajansaRebis kidev erTma centrma SeiZinos axali sicocxle. Tumca, 2014 wels Cveni yvelaze saamayo sfero mainc energetikuli seqtori iyo. am seqtorSi, zustad erTi wlis win, `saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporaciasTan~ erTad Cven uprecedento masStabis proeqti – gardabnis Sereuli ciklis Tboeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba daviwyeT. Tboeleqtrosadgurs, romlis sainvesticio Rirebuleba 220 milioni dolaria, 2015 wlis Semodgomaze saeqspluataciod gavuSvebT. energetikul sistemaSi problemis warmoSobis SemTxvevaSi, igi saqarTvelos masStabiT sistemis eleqtroenergiiT momaragebas umokles vadebSi SeZlebs. sadguri 230 megavati simZlavris iqneba, 1.8 miliard kolovatsaaTs gamoimuSavebs da 50%-iT ufro energoefeqturi iqneba sxva moqmed TboeleqtrosadgurebTan SedarebiT. am wlis gazafxulze, rogorc ki klimaturi pirobebi xels Segviwyobs, svaneTSi, mdinare nenskraze, 280 megavati simZlavris hidroeleqtrosadguris

es gaxlavT 6 mln aSS dolaris Rirebulebis proeqti, romelsac adgilobriv kompaniasTan erTad vaxorcielebT da SesaZloa gigantur proeqtebTan Sedarebisas misi sainvesticio Rirebuleba umniSvnelo cifri mogeCvenoT. magram Tu gaiTvaliswinebT faqts, rom proeqti importis Semcirebas da adgilobrivi warmoebis ganviTarebas uwyobs xels, mas ukve sxvanairad SeafasebT. Cven SevZeliT, rom fondis sainvesticio proeqtebis Rirebuleba 2 miliard dolaramde gagvezarda. faqti, rom sapartnioro fondi ramdenime msxvili saxelmwifo aqtivis mflobelia (`saqarTvelos rkinigzis~, `saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporaciis~, `saqarTvelos saxelmwifo eleqtrosistemis~, `eleqtrosistemebis komerciuli operatorisa~ da nawilobriv, `Telasis~), saSualebas iZleva qveynis masStabiT nebismieri kalibris proeqti ganxorcieldes. 2015 wels vgegmavT, rom msxvil energetikul da turistul proeqtebs warmoebis seqtorsa da soflis meurneobis sferoebSi ramdenime saSualo zomis proeqtic SevmatoT. ise rom, sapartnioro fondisTvis 2015 `mosavlis aRebis~ weli iqneba. n

irakli kovzanaZe: sapartnioro fondis aRmasrulebeli direqtori

150

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saqarTvelo/ekonomika

XXI saukunis abreSumis gza

yazaxeTi-azerbaijani-saqarTvelos derefani istoriul mniSvnelobas ibrunebs mamuka baxtaZe

Revandel dRes, miuxedavad Cven garSemo arsebuli mniSvnelovani geopolitikuri cvlilebebisa, `saqarTvelos rkinigzam~ moaxerxa axali savaWro mimarTulebis gaxsna. arsebobs varaudi, rom yazaxeTi-azerbaijanisaqarTvelos derefani SeiZens imave mniSvnelobas, rac istoriulad hqonda abreSumis gzas. miuxedavad imisa, rom bolo aTwleulis manZilze bevri proeqti iqna ganxiluli, mxolod axla Sedga mezobeli qveynebis politikuri da ekonomikuri interesebis Tanxvedra, ramac wina planze wamowia derefnis gafarToebis aucilebloba da SesaZlebeli gaxada, CineTi dakavSireboda TurqeTsa da evropas. qveynebis survili, erTmaneTTan daemyarebinaT mWidro TanamSromloba, gaxda sakoordinacio sabWos dafuZnebis mizezi 2013 wlis noemberSi. sabWos efeqturma Sexvedrebma gamoiwvia rigi erTmaneTisgan damoukideblad arsebuli movlenebi, rogorebicaa magaliTad, baqo-Tbilisi-yarsis (TurqeTi) sarkinigzo xazis mSeneblobis, foTis portsa da baqos Soris Cqarosnuli matareblis da kaspiis zRvis saborne gadasasvlelebis dakavSireba. sakoordinacio sabWos pirvelsave Sexvedraze

mamuka baxtaZe: ss â&#x20AC;&#x17E;saqarTvelos rkinigzisâ&#x20AC;&#x153; generaluri direqtori

msoflio 2015

miRebuli gadawyvetilebis Sedegad, CineTidan Savi zRvis portis mimarTulebiT daiZra pirveli pirdapiri sarkinigzo matarebeli. samatareblo gadazidvam, romelic CineTSi 29 ianvars daitvirTa da saqarTveloSi 6 Tebervals daicala, transportirebaSi rekorduli dro daamyara, vinaidan manamde, zRviT transportirebis SemTxvevaSi, CineTidan Savi zRvis auzSi tvirTis mosaxvedrad, 40-45 dRe iyo saWiro. igegmeba yovelkvireulad erTi blokmatareblis gadazidvis ganxorcieleba, rac saSualebas miscems tvirTmflobelebs, isargeblon regularuli da garantirebuli saxazo servisiT. aRniSnuli proeqtis ganxorcielebiT, tvirTbrunva mxolod CineTidan SesaZloa gaizardos daaxloebiT 60-70 aTasi TEU-Ti weliwadSi. 2015 wlidan, baqo-Tbilisi-yarsis proeqtis dasrulebis Semdeg, mosalodnelia, rom am proeqtma es cifrebi gaaormagos. Tavis mxriv, modernizaciis proeqtis dasrulebiT, `saqarTvelos rkinigza~ agrZelebs muSaobas, raTa kidev ufro gazardos derefnis efeqturoba. 390 CHF milionis investiciiT am proeqtSi, upirvelesad yuradReba eTmoba mTavar magistrals, romelic Tbiliss Sav zRvasTan akavSirebs. am proeqtiT aseve igegmeba Tbilissa da baTums Soris (315 kilometris) rkinigzisa da eleqtromomaragebis infrastruqturis modernizacia, romelic agreTve

saqarTvelo/ekonomika

miuxedavad imisa, rom bevri proeqti iqna ganxiluli, mxolod axla Sedga mezobeli qveynebis politikuri da ekonomikuri interesebis Tanxvedra, ramac wina planze wamowia derefnis gafarToebis aucilebloba da SesaZlebeli gaxada, CineTi dakavSireboda TurqeTsa da evropas moicavs 40-kilometrian uReltexils. proeqtis ganxorcielebis Sedegad gaizrdeba siCqare, simZlavre da usafrTxoeba. CemTvis da Cemi gundisTvis udidesi pativia azerbaijanel, yazax megobrebTan da kolegebTan TanamSromloba. Cven gavagrZelebT muSaobas sakuTar qveynebs Soris urTierTobis gamyarebasa da derefnis mniSvnelobis gaZlierebaze. n

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mcire da saSualo biznesi â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ekonomikis mamoZravebeli Zala 2015 mokled 2015 wlis martidan amoqmeddeba mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagentos biznescentri mcire da saSualo biznesisTvis

giorgi cikolia: mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagentos direqtori

giorgi cikolia

`intensiurad vimuSavebT finansur resursebze xelmisawvdomobis Âgamartivebis gzebze~

014 wels saqarTvelos mTavrobam miiRo qveynis socio-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategia `saqarTvelo-2020~, romlis mixedviTac mTavrobis umTavres amocanas warmoadgens inkluziuri ekonomikis ganviTareba, rac Tavis mxriv damyarebulia samuSao adgilebis, inovaciebisa da kerZo seqtoris konkurentunarianobis zrdaze. swored aRniSnuli ideebis gansaxorcieleblad mTavrobam SeimuSava ramdenime iniciativa, maT Soris Seiqmna Cveni saagento, romlis mTavari mizania xeli Seuwyos kerZo seqtors sami mimarTulebiT: 1. gaumartivos wvdoma finansebze 2. xeli Seuwyos saTanado codnis miRebaSi 3. saerTaSoriso masStabiT waaxalisos qveynis saeqsporto potenciali dasaxuli miznebis misaRwevad mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagentom SeimuSava mizanmimarTuli programebi da Sesabamisad CaerTo saqarTvelos premierministris mier inicirebuli samTavrobo programis `awarmoe saqarTveloSi~ ganxorcielebaSi. programis pirveli Sedegebi gvaZlevs saSualebas vTqvaT, rom programis ZiriTadi principebi sworad iyo SerCeuli da Seesabameba bazris moTxovnebs. mxolod mrewvelobis mimarTulebiT bankebis mier damtkicebuli proeqtebis jamurma investiciam miaxloebiT 41 500 000 aSS dolari Seadgina, xolo gacemuli sesxebisa da lizingis momsaxurebis saerTo odenoba 28 963 000 aSS dolars aRwevs. sul, 2014 wels finansuri mxardaWera 29 kompanias gavuwieT. Cveni daxmarebiT kompaniebs gaumartivdaT salizingo momsaxurebis miReba. qveynis bazarze moqmed samive salizingo kompaniasTan warmatebiT dasrulda molaparakebebi da gaformda xelSekruleba. aseve, biznesis sferoSi dasaqmebulebis finansuri da samewarmeo unarebis gasaviTareblad organizeba gavuwieT treningebs da konsultaciebs. mniSvnelovania, rom saerTaSoriso gamofenebisa da onlain marketingis saSualebiT, qarTuli produqciisTvis ucxoeTis bazrebze daviwyeT niadagis momzadeba. mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagentos daxmarebiT msoflios prestiJul gamofenebze saqarTvelodan 20-ze metma mewarmem waradgina sakuTari produqcia. am aqtiuri muSaobis Sedegad, gasul wels Cveni programebis monawile kompaniebis mier gaformebuli kontraqtebis saerTo moculobam da eqsportis saxiT sxvadasxva qveynebSi gasuli produqciis Rirebulebam 2 milion aSS dolars gadaaWarba. imedi gvaqvs, rom es ricxvebi am wels kidev ufro STambeWdavi iqneba. jamSi 40-ze met eqsportior kompanias gaewia sakonsultacio momsaxureba. saagentos mier SemuSavda da 2015 wels saqarTvelos regionebSi amoqmeddeba mikro da mcire biznesis ganviTarebis programa, romlis farglebSi mewarme subieqti 5 000 larian Tanadafinansebas miiRebs sakuTari saqmianobis dasawyebad. 20 dekembridan dRemde, saqarTveloSi Camosul yvela ucxo qveynis moqalaqes Cveni saagentos iniciativiT, evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli

Tavisufali savaWro reJimis amoqmedebis aRsaniSnavad, saCuqrad gadaecema saagentos mier brendirebuli saferavis jiSis wiTeli Rvino. boTlis etiketze asaxulia mniSvnelovani faqtebi qarTuli Rvinis warmoebisa da evrokavSirTan savaWro reJimis Taobaze. kampanias Zalian didi gamoxmaureba moyva turistebs Soris, gansakuTrebiT es igrZnoboda socialur qselebSi, sadac aRfrTovanebuli turistebi werdnen qarTvelebis gansakuTrebuli stumarTmoyvareobisa da originalurobis Taobaze. viaqtiureT saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kuTxiTac. 2014 wels saagentom 9 saerTaSoriso safinanso da donor organizaciasTan partnioruli urTierTobebi daiwyo. amasTan, xeli moewera evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis bankTan urTierTTanamSromlobis memorandums sakonsultacio momsaxurebis gawevis dargSi. mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagento 2015 wels intensiurad imuSavebs finansur resursebze xelmisawvdomobis gamartivebis gzebze. aqtiurad viqnebiT CarTuli `awarmoe saqarTveloSi~ programis ganxorcielebaSi. 2015 wlis 2-27 marts, kavkasiis universitetTan erTad ganvaxorcielebT eqsportis menejerTa gadamzadebis saserTifikato erTTvian kurss. aseve, mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi ucxouri bazrebis diversifikaciis kuTxiT qarTvel eqsportiorebs xels SevuwyobT waradginon qarTuli produqcia eqvs saerTaSoriso gamofenaze. gvaqvs kidev erTi sasiamovno informacia. 2015 wlis martidan amoqmeddeba mewarmeobis ganviTarebis saagentos sakonsultacio centri mcire da saSualo biznesisTvis, romelic sxvadasxva momsaxurebebs SesTavazebs mewarmeebs. centrSi ganTavsdeba biblioTeka, romelic onlainreJimSic iqneba xelmisawvdomi, Sexvedrebis oTaxi, aqve moewyoba kompiuteruli da sainformacio kuTxe eqsportTan dakavSirebuli masalebiT. igegmeba treningebis Catarebac. Cven darwmunebuli varT, rom ganxorcielebuli da dagegmili RonisZiebebis Sedegad, qarTuli kompaniebi mniSvnelovnad gazrdian sakuTar potencials, xels Seuwyoben eqsportis diversificirebas da Rirseuli konkurentebi iqnebian rogorc adgilobriv, ise ucxour bazrebze. yvelaferi es ganapirobebs qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebas da samuSao adgilebis zrdas. n

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/ekonomika

153

gadawyvetilebebis molodinSi irakli leqvinaZe

2015 wels ekonomikis mTavari gamowveva sagareo faqtori da antibiznesuri ganwyobebis daZleva iqneba

useT-ukrainis omis Sedegad dawyebuli `sanqciebis omi~, rusuli da ukrainuli finansuri krizisi, sanqciebis konteqstSi navTobis saerTaSoriso fasebis TiTqmis ganaxevreba, evropasTan Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb xelSekrulebis gaformeba, `Tibisi bankis~ londonuri IPO, sabanko bazarze liderTa poziciebis ganmtkiceba (`Tibisi~-`konstantas~ da `saqarTvelos banki~-`privatbankis~ gaerTianeba), laris kursis `tradiciuli~ sezonis bolos meryeoba, sainvesticio afeTqeba mesame kvartalSi, antibiznesuri fonis gaZliereba – hesebis, industriuli da samSeneblo proeqtis winaaRmdeg mimarTuli aqciebi, `airzenas~ demarSi, savizo regulaciebis garTuleba, dagvianebuli infrastruqturuli proeqtebi, moulodnelad gazrdili aqcizi ludisa da alkoholuri sasmelebis industriisTvis, `bumi~ riTeilis bazarze, Rvinis industriisTvis gansakuTrebulad warmatebuli weli – es 2014 wlis Sedegebia, romlis gavlenac 2015 wels gardauvali iqneba. ruseTisa da dasavleTis dapirispirebis fonze, 2015 weli saqarTvelos ekonomikisTvis seriozuli gamowveva iqneba. dagegmili 5%-iani ekonomikuri zrdis miRweva bevr faqtorze iqneba damokidebuli. ruseTukrainis wili saeqsporto gayidvebSi 15%, importSi ki – 13%-ia. ukrainaSi bolo 2 kvartalSi saeqsporto gayidvebi TiTqmis ganaxevrebulia, 2015 wels es tendencia, savaraudod, gagrZeldeba. ukraina saomar mdgomareobaSia, qveyanaSi adgilobrivi valutis gaufasurebis gamo mosaxleobis msyidvelunarianoba Semcirebulia. 2014 wlis manZilze, ruseTis bazarze eqsportis zrda grZeldeboda – ZiriTadad, eqstensiuri matebis xarjze. 2015 wels zrdis tempis Senelebas unda velodoT. marTalia, dasavluri sanqciebis Sedegad bazarze niSebi gamoTavisuflebulia, magram ruseTis finansuri sistema seriozuli kraxis winaSe dgas, mosaxleobis msyidvelunarianoba ki seriozulad daqveiTebulia. 2015 wels sanqciebi, albaT, kidev gaZlierdeba da krizisis piks unda velodoT. pirvel kvartalSi ramdenime msxvili kompaniis seriozul gakotrebas elian, rac ruseTSi viTarebas kidev ufro gaamwvavebs. sakmaod kargi – 2013 da 2014 wlebis Semdeg problemebs gansakuTrebiT Rvinis industria unda elodos, radgan Rvinis or umsxviles bazarze warmoqmnili mwvave krizisi gayidvebs mkveTrad Seamcirebs. Rvinis eqsportis 63% ruseTze, 15-20% ki ukrainaze modis. ukrainaSi eqsportis Semcireba ukve fiqsirdeba, ruseTSi ki es molodini 2015 wlisTvis arsebobs. rusul-ukrainuli krizisi saqarTveloSi fuladi transferebis dinamikazec aisaxa da trendi 2015 welsac gagrZeldeba. 2014 wlis noemberSi, wina wlis igive TvesTan SedarebiT, ruseTidan fuladi gzavnilebis 30%-iani, ukrainidan ki 50%-iani kleba dafiqsirda. am ori qveynis wili saerTo fulad transferebSi 47%-ia. am maCveneblebis Semcireba laris kursis cvlilebaze 2014 wlis bolos aisaxa – erovnuli valuta aSS dolarTan mimarTebaSi 8%-iT gaufasurda. larze zemoqmedeba rusul-ukrainuli krizisis kidev ufro gamwvavebis fonze isev mosalodnelia. Tu 2015 wels qveyanaSi sainvesticio aqtivoba ar gaizarda, laris ryeva SesaZloa mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi gagrZeldes.

investiciebs rac Seexeba, arasaxarbielo mdgomareobis gamo, regionSi kapitalis Semodineba garTulebulia. 2014 wlis mesame kvartalSi dafiqsirebuli `afeTqeba~, CineTis aqtiurobis xarjze, trendis 2015 welsac gagrZelebis Sanss tovebs. miT umetes, rom 2015 wels dagegmilia ramdenime hesis mSeneblobis ganxorcieleba – maT Soris, yvelaze msxvili proeqti xudoni ($1.2 mlrd), aseve `panorama Tbilisis~ ($600 mln), anakliis portis mSeneblobis dawyeba ($800–900 mln). sainvesticio aqtivoba da axal saeqsporto bazrebze aqtiuroba is mTavari mimarTulebebia, romlebmac 2015 wels saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri zrda minimum 5%-ian doneze unda SeinarCunos. Tumca, garda sagareo faqtorebisa, investiciebs mTavari winaaRmdegoba qveynis SigniT aqvs – garemos dacvis, kulturis SenarCunebis motivebiT, sxvadasxva dainteresebuli mxareebi (xSirad – politikosebi) aqtiurad cdiloben proeqtebi SeaCeron. raWaSi, xaiSSi, kazreTSi, RurtaSi da a.S. mowyobili aqciebi (xSirad - politizebuli) investorebis ganwyobaze pozitiurad namdvilad ar moqmedebs. ase rom, 2015 wels mTavrobis mTavari gamowveva am ganwyobebis marTva da xSirad gabeduli gadawyvetilebebis miReba iqneba. sainvesticio aqtivobis gazrdis mimarTulebiT, mastimulirebeli iqneba savizo regulaciebisa da miwebis gayidvaze moratoriumis gauqmeba. aseve, 1 seqtembridan ZalaSia evropasTan Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekruleba, romlis erT-erTi moklevadiani efeqti swored sainvesticio aqtivobis zrdaa. saerTaSoriso kompania `ekorisi da qeisis~ kvlevis mixedviT, am xelSekrulebis gaformebis moklevadiani efeqti mSp-ze 1.7%-iani damatebiTi zrda, xolo eqsportis 12%-iani damatebiTi zrda unda iyos. fasebis kuTxiT, msoflio bazrebze stabilurobaa. navTobis fasi klebadia da 2015 wlis manZilze albaT asec iqneba. saqarTvelo sawvavis 100%-iani importioria. Sesabamisac, fasTa klebis gavlena pozitiuri iqneba. fasebi stabiluria sxva pirveladi moxmarebis produqtebze. 2015 wels, savaraudod, unda velodoT marcvleulze fasis zrdas. erT-erTi umsxvilesi eqsportiori – ruseTi, eqsportis SezRudvas apirebs, rac fasebs aucileblad gazrdis. gavlena saqarTvelozec aisaxeba, vinaidan qveyanaSi produqciis 90%ze meti importirebulia, didi nawili ki – ruseTidan. miuxedavad amisa, 2015 wels inflacia, savaraudod, 3-4%-is farglebSi iqneba da `samizne~ 6%-ian maCvenebels verc momaval wels miaRwevs. Tu 2014 wlis erT-erT mTavar warmatebul proeqtad `sayovelTao dazRveva~ SegviZlia davasaxeloT, 2015 wels msgavs ganxorcielebul saqmed SesaZloa qveynis internetizacia iqces. mTavrobas dagegmili aqvs, saqarTvelos sruli teritoria internetis xelmisawvdomi zona gaxdes, rac teqnologiur garemosa da sainformacio teqnologiebze wvdomas sagrZnoblad gazrdis. 2015 wels, vfiqrob, mniSvnelovania daiwyos qveynis aqtiuri pozicionireba saerTaSoris biznesforumebze, rogorc regionuli habis – ekonomikuri, safinanso, logistikuri, turistuli, kulturuli mimarTulebebiT. vfiqrob, gasaZlierebelia saqarTvelos savaWro palatis organizaciuli roli saerTaSoriso biznesurTierTobebSi. n

2015 mokled Tu 2015 wels qveyanaSi sainvesticio aqtivoba ar gaizarda, laris ryeva SesaZloa mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi gagrZeldes

irakli leqvinaZe: `jorjian biznes insaiTi~ (BPI), ekonomisti

154

saqarTvelo/ekonomika

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2014-is problemebiT damZimebuli 2015 roman gociriZe

`ZiriTadi gamowveva kvlav sagadamxdelo balansis deficitisa da biujetis droSi Tanabarzomieri Sesrulebis problema iqneba~

asuli, 2014 wlis ekonomikuri cxovrebis yvelaze usiamovno siurprizi wlis bolos laris kursis gaufasureba iyo. es moulodneli aRmoCnda Tundac imitom, rom sul raRac TerTmeti Tve iyo gasuli wina devalvaciidan. naTqvamia, Wurvi erTsa da imave adgilas orjer ar ecemao. es kanonzomiereba monetarul sferoze

2015 mokled `mosalodnelia, rom sagareo faqtorebis negatiuri zemoqmedeba ufro Serbilebuli iqneba~

roman gociriZe: ekonomikuri ganviTarebis centris Tavmjdomare; saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis yofili prezidenti

ar vrceldeba. lari wlis bolos erTbaSad gaufasurda daaxloebiT 8 procentiT, magram mTlianobaSi mainc SeZlo ufro didi vardnisagan Tavis daRweva. igi koreqtirda mimdinare angaris gauaresebis kvaldakval da wonasworobis axal niSnulze dastabilurda. miuxedavad amisa, savaluto bazarze kvlav nervuli viTarebaa. Tu ramdenad mdgradi aRmoCndeba mocemuli niSnuli, es mTavrobisa da erovnuli bankis swor fiskalur da monetarul politikaze iqneba damokidebuli. miuxedavad laris devalvaciisa, jerjerobiT mas gavlena ar mouxdenia fasebis zrdaze. gasuli wlis ganmavlobaSi wliuri inflacia mxolod 2 procenti iyo. ekonomikuri viTareba araerTgvarovani rCeba: erTi mxriv, saxezea ekonomikuri zrda 5 procentis farglebSi, meore mxriv, kvlav SenarCunebulia umuSevrobis maRali done da ekonomikis am tempiT zrda ver axdens gavlenas siRaribis Semcirebaze. wels ZiriTadi gamowveva kvlav sagadamxdelo balansis deficitisa da biujetis droSi Tanabarzomieri Sesrulebis problema iqneba (deficituri xarjvis gadavadeba da mTeli simZimis gadatana wlis bolo Tveebze). 2015 wels biujetis deficiti izrdeba da igi mSp-is 3,7 procents miaRwevs. laris gaufasureba ZiriTadad Sida faqtorebiT iyo ganpirobebuli, magram masze sagareo faqtorebmac moaxdina gavlena, kerZod – rusuli rublis swrafma devalvaciam da ukrainis, rogorc erT-erTi mTavari partniori qveynis bazris dezorganizaciam. Tumca, sagareo faqtorma ufro damamZimebeli roli iTamaSa, vidre arsebiTi. gasul wels gauaresda sagareo vaWrobis balansi. eqsporti Semcirda 2 procentiT, xolo importi gaizarda 7 procentiT. umniSvnelod, mxolod 1.8 procentiT moimata turistebis raodenobam, maSin roca wina wlebSi zrda orniSna cifrebiT gamoixateboda. es mTavrobis araswori savizo SezRudvebis Sedegi iyo. Semcirda agreTve swrafi fuladi gzavnilebis meSveobiT ruseTidan valutis gadmoricxva. aseve iklo Semosavlebma satransporto gadazidvebidan (ZiriTadad, rkinigzis muSaobis gauaresebis gamo). pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi daaxloebiT im moculobis iyo, ramdenic gasul wels, rac ar aRmoCnda sakmarisi mimdinare angariSis deficitis Semcirebaze ufro meti gavlenis mosaxdenad. garda amisa, sabiujeto procesis arasworad warmarTvis gamo, droulad ver Semovida ucxouri grantebi da kreditebi, rac ba-

zarze valutis miwodebis damatebiTi wyaro unda yofiliyo. yovelive amas sagareo faqtorebic daemTxva da Sedegad miviReT laris swrafi devalvacia. es Secdomebi ar unda ganmeordes mimdinare wels. rac Seexeba momaval sabiujeto process, mas daRs asvams is garemoeba, rom wels dasamTavrebeli samSeneblo samuSaoebi momdevno wels xdeba gasakeTebeli. qveyanas SarSandeli problemebi mimdinare wels tvirTad awevs zurgze. amitom, ar aris gamoricxuli, rom isev Zveli suraTis momswreni gavxdeT: Semosavlebis mobilizebisa da xarjebis gawevisas droSi CamorCena, bolo Tveebze xarjvis ZiriTadi tvirTis gadatana Tanmdevi makroekonomikuri SedegebiTurT. mTlianobaSi, gasuli weli hgavda 2013 wels da mimdinare 2015 welsac memkvidreobiT gadmoyveba wina ori wlis dadebiTi da uaryofiTi niSnebi. ekonomikuri zrdis dagegmili tempi ar aris sakmarisi cxovrebis donis asamaRleblad. yovelive es moiTxovs xelisuflebis mxridan ufro aqtiuri, liberaluri xasiaTis ekonomikuri nabijebis gadadgmas. amasTan, saxezea xelisuflebis ekonomikuri politikis koreqcia, romelic met regulirebasa da biujetis deficitis zrdazea orientirebuli. meti subsidiebi, naklebadefeqtiani sabiujeto mxardaWera biznesisadmi da aradabalansebuli socialuri politika, sabolo jamSi fasebis zrdis, laris devalvaciisa da ekonomikuri zrdis Seferxebis riskebs aCens. 2015 wels mosalodnelia, rom sagareo faqtorebis negatiuri zemoqmedeba ufro Serbilebuli iqneba, radgan dolaris gamyarebis tendencia msoflio savaluto bazarze albaT SeCerdeba. qveynis ekonomikur zrdasa da savaWro balansze dadebiT zemoqmedebas moaxdens navTobze msoflio bazarze fasebis kleba. igi qveynidan ucxouri valutis nakleb gadinebasac Seuwyobs xels.

ruseTis/ukrainis faqtori ruseTis rublis devalvaciam, rogorc Cans, piks miaRwia, magram ekonomikuri zrdis savaraudo dacema 5 procentis farglebSi, seriozul problemebs Seqmnis am qveyanaSi dasaqmebisa da Semosavlebis klebis saxiT. es gavlenas moaxdens ruseTidan saqarTveloSi transferebis sidideze – iseve, rogorc saqonlis eqsportis moculobaze. ukrainis bazarma unda daiwyos gamococxleba, radgan ruseTis mxridan pirdapiri samxedro agresiis ganaxlebis safrTxe naklebad realuri Cans, ruseTis ekonomikis recesiis fazaSi Sesvlis gamo. ukrainis valutis devalvaciac axdens saqarTvelos eqsportze gavlenas, iseve rogorc donbasisa da yirimis bazris dakargva da ukrainis mosaxleobis msyidvelunarianobis kleba. momaval wels unda velodoT garkveul stabilizacias am mimarTulebiT, radgan qveyana axorcielebs reformebs da moqmedebs saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis programa, rac seriozuli faqtoria makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis misaRwevad. savaraudod, saqarTvelodan ruseTSi eqsportis zrdis tempi Seneldeba. Semcirdeba Rvinisa da mineraluri wylebis, aseve sxva saqonlis eqsportiorTa Semosavlebi. rusi turistebis gadaxdisunarianoba Semcirdeba, ramac SesaZloa gavlena iqonios saqarTveloSi maT Semosvlaze. mTlianobaSi, ruseTis (ukrainis) faqtori ar aris im masStabis, rom mTliani Sida produqtis zrdaze mniSvnelovnad aisaxos, Tumca garkveuli problemebis Seqmna fuladi nakadebis Semodinebis procesSi da vaWrobaSi kvlav SeuZlia. n

msoflio 2015

155

saqarTvelo/biznesi

Cveni klientebis warmatebebi Cveni warmatebebia

azaxeTis respublikis safinanso bazris wamyvani bankis `xalik bankis~ Svilobili – `xalik banki saqarTvelo~ qveynis bazarze 2008 wlidan funqcionirebs. marTalia, TbilisSi bankis gaxsna agvistos oms da msoflio ekonomikur kriziss daemTxva, Tumca aman bankis menejments gadawyvetileba ver Seacvlevina. saqarTvelos sabanko bazarze `xalik bank saqarTvelos~ saqmianoba maSinve ar dauwyia. bankis menejmentma nulidan daiwyo. Tavdapirvelad, bankis Sida struqturebi aewyo. Seiqmna yazaxuri bankis analogiuri mcire banki, romelic mTlianad qarTuli produqtia, qarTuli bankia, sadac TanamSromlebis 95% adgilobrivi specialistebi arian. 2010 wlis meore naxevridan, pasiurad, xolo 2011 wlis dasawyisidan bankma ukve aqtiuri funqcionireba daiwyo adgilobriv bazarze da TandaTanobiT moipova ndoba da popularoba. banki sazogadod miRebuli principebisa da saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebs icavs, korporaciuli marTvis evropuli standartebis dacviT muSaobs da maqsimalurad Ria da gamWvirvale politikas atarebs bankis aqcionerebis, saxelmwifo struqturebis, partniorebis, klientebisa da TanamSromlebis mimarT. saimedooba aris mTavari faqtori Cveni yvelaze faseuli aqtivis – bankis saqmiani reputaciis SenarCunebisaTvis. Sesabamisad, es yvelaferi aisaxeba bankis portfelis, mogebisa Tu klientTa raodenobis zrdaze. 2011 wlidan SemuSavebuli samwliani strategiuli gegma 2015 wels sruldeba, romlis farglebSi, banki yovelwliurad axal-axal produqtebs sTavazobda klientebs, TanamSromelTa raodenobas zrdida da filialebs afarToebda, ramac saSu-

2015 wels vgegmavT damatebiTi investiciis dabandebas, raTa Cveni momsaxurebis xarisxi kidev ufro gavaumjobesoT. welsve vmuSaobT axali produqtis SeTavazebaze – sakredito baraTze, romelsac klientTa sasargeblod bevri SeTavazeba da bonusi moyveba. Cveni klientebis warmatebebi Cveni warmatebebia. vcdilobT gavigoT Cveni klientebis moTxovnebi da yvela resursi gamoviyenoT, raTa maT yvelaze efeqturi gadawyvetilebebi SevTavazoT. vTanamSromlobT yvela kategoriis klientTan da maT konkurentunarian produqtebs, xarisxian momsaxurebas vTavazobT. banki gascems sesxebs rogorc iuridiuli, aseve fizikuri pirebisTvis. Cveni bankis magaliTze SemiZlia giTxraT, rom mcire biznesi aqtiurad muSaobs. gavcemT yvela tipis sesxs, maT Soris: ipoTekurs, samomxmareblo, saxelfaso, avtosesxi. gvaqvs aseve agrosesxebi. rac Seexeba sesxebis wliur procents, igi 9-10%-dan iwyeba, xolo maqsimaluri vada 10 welia. rac Seexeba Cvens portfels, is 130 milioni laria. saqarTvelos sabanko sivrce qveyanaSi erT-erTi yvelaze ganviTarebulia. aq ramdenime seriozuli banki moRvaweobs, Tumca CvenTvis, bazarze pozicionirebis paralelurad, xarisxis gaumjobeseba prioritetul mimarTulebad rCeba. xSirad amboben, rom saqarTveloSi saprocento ganakveTi maRalia, magram wlidan wlamde ganakveTebi mcirdeba, rac Sedegad biznesis gaaqtiurebas gamoiwvevs. n

nika geguCaZe: `xalik bankis~ generaluri direqtori

156

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msoflio 2015

regionuli korporaciuli da sainvesticio sabanko momsaxureba

goga jafariZe

goga jafariZe: PASHA Bank-is komerciuli direqtori

ASHA Bank baqoSi saTao ofisis mqone finansuri institutia, romelic operirebs azerbaijanSi, saqarTvelosa da TurqeTSi. Cven msxvil da saSualo zomis sawarmoebs vTavazobT korporaciuli da sainvesticio sabanko momsaxurebis srul speqtrs. PASHA Bank aris PASHA Holding-is nawili, romelic warmoadgens azerbaijanis wamyvan sainvesticio holdings. misi saqmianobis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebia: korporaciuli da sacalo sabanko saqmianoba, dazRveva, mSenebloba, uZravi qonebis marTva da turistuli momsaxureba. PASHA Holding-is aqtivebi 2014 wlis dekembris mdgomareobiT, 3 miliard evros aRemateba. PASHA Bank-ma saqarTveloSi funqcionireba 2013 wlis TebervalSi daiwyo da misi saaqcio kapitali 103 milion lars Seadgens. iqidan gamomdinare, rom PASHA Bank-s qarTul bazarze jer kidev kargad ar icnoben, am etapze Cveni strategiuli amocanaa cnobadobis gazrda da Sesabamisad, dagegmili gvaqvs garkveuli marketinguli aqtivobebi, ris paraleluradac vapirebT piradad SevxvdeT saqarTveloSi moqmedi msxvili da saSualo kompaniebis mniSvnelovan nawils da gavacnoT Cveni SeTavazebebi. rogorc aRvniSne, PASHA Bank klientebs sTavazobs korporaciul da sainvesticio sabanko momsaxurebas. sacalo sabanko produqtebis danergva uaxloes momavalSi gaTvaliswinebuli ar aris. Sesabamisad, mTeli Cveni saqmianoba fokusirebulia mxolod korporaciul segmentze. CvenTan TiToeul

klients realurad eTmoba ormagad meti dro da yuradReba. miuxedavad imisa, rom rac dro gadis, `paSa bankis~ klientTa ricxvi stabilurad izrdeba, Cven vaxerxebT, yoveli maTganisTvis SevinarCunoT eqskluziuri midgoma da gamorCeuli servisi. amJamad PASHA Bank orientirebulia msxvili kompaniebis momsaxurebaze, Tumca ganvixilavT mcire da saSualo biznesis dafinansebis SesaZleblobasac. es sakiTxi jerjerobiT Seswavlis safexurzea da aRniSnuli mimarTulebiT gadawyvetileba 2015 wlis bolomde iqneba miRebuli. unda aRiniSnos, rom 2014 wlis seqtembris monacemebiT, PASHA Bank misi saaqcio kapitaliT saqarTvelos bankebis pirvel aTeulSia, xolo saerTo aqtivebiT â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 15 wamyvan banks Soris uWiravs adgili. migvaCnia, rom 2015 wlidan PASHA Bank partniorobisTvis kidev ufro saintereso gaxdeba, Tu gaviTvaliswinebT im mniSvnelovan siaxles, rom man daiwyo operireba TurqeTSic. 2014 wlis dekemberSi, PASHA Bank-ma TurqeTSi operirebis licenzia miiRo da sul male misi filiali stambolSic sruli moculobiT amoqmeddeba. vfiqrob, im kompaniebisTvis, romelTa saqmianobaSic regionul savaWro urTierTobebs mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs, azerbaijanSi, saqarTvelosa da TurqeTSi warmodgenili banki calsaxad mimzidveli iqneba. aRniSnuli sami qveynis bazarze erT finansur institutTan TanamSromloba, dameTanxmebiT, rig kompaniebs damatebiT komforts Seuqmnis. `paSa banki~ erT-erTia im bankTa Soris, romlebic grZelvadian partniorobaze, da rogorc sakuTari, aseve misi klientis biznesis stabilur ganviTarebaze aris orientirebuli. rac Seexeba saqarTveloSi PASHA Bank-is saqmianobas, unda aRvniSno, rom CvenTvis ekonomikis yvela seqtori Tanabrad prioritetulia. Tu ar CavTvliT azartuli TamaSebis bizness, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom sxvadasxva sferoSi moqmedi sawarmoebisTvis sabanko momsaxurebis SeTavazebisas seqtoraluri SezRudva ar gvaqvs. sabanko seqtori qarTuli ekonomikis erT-erTi yvelaze ganviTarebuli dargia. seqtorSi didia ucxouri investiciebis wili, ramac mniSvnelovanwilad ganapiroba sabanko sferoSi momsaxurebis Tanamedrove msoflio praqtikis danergva. garda uSualod dafinansebisa, sabanko seqtori aseve warmoadgens kvalificiuri kadrebis wyaros ekonomikis sxva seqtorebisaTvis da karg magaliTs imisa, Tu ra Sedegebis miRwevaa SesaZlebeli ganviTarebis swori strategiis arCevis SemTxvevaSi. n

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/biznesi

157

„prokredit banki“ - 2014 wlis Sejameba

014 weli warmatebuli weli iyo „prokredit bankisTvis“. amis Tqmis safuZvels iZleva mimdinare wels ganxorcielebuli umniSvnelovanesi proeqtebi da miRweuli Sedegebi. aRsaniSnavia, rom bankma sabolood uari Tqva mikro biznessegmentis dafinansebaze, raTa kidev ufro meti wvlili Seitanos biznesis ganviTarebasa da samuSao adgilebis SeqmnaSi. Sesabamisad, bankma mTeli resursi mimarTa mcire da saSualo biznesseqtoris momsaxurebisken, maTTvis inovaciuri proeqtebisa da kidev ufro daxvewili distanciuri servisebis SeTavazebaze. mimdinare wels, ganaxlebul yvela filialSi, sxva filialebis msgavsad, ganTavsda 24-saaTiani TviTmomsaxurebis zona. Sedegad, met klients aqvs SesaZlebloba 24/7 reJimSi garkveuli sabanko operaciebi damoukideblad Seasrulos: ganaxorcielos gadaricxvebi, Seitanos Tanxa angariSze an gaanaRdos igi bankomatidan. aRsaniSnavia, rom 2014 wlis monacemebiT, finansurma maCvenebelma ROE-m 19% Seadgina. am da sxva finansuri maCveneblebis gaTvaliswinebiT, 2014 wels „prokredit bankis“ mier miRebuli mogeba, 2013 wlis maCvenebelze 10%-iT meti iqneba.

2014 wels ganxorcielebuli ramdenime mniSvnelovani proeqti eleqtronuli xelmoweris sistema – inovacia sabanko momsaxurebis sferoSi! qarTul sabanko sistemaSi momsaxurebis gawevis axali forma – eleqtronuli xelmowera amoqmedda. erovnul bankTan aqtiuri TanamSromlobiT, „prokredit bankma“ pirvelma danerga inovaciuri proeqti da klientebs unikaluri SesaZlebloba misca garkveul sabanko operaciebze xelmowera eleqtronulad ganaxorcielon. Sedegad mcirdeba yoveldRiurad moxmarebuli qaRaldis odenoba, rac garemoze dadebiTad aisaxeba. Tavis mxriv, eleqtronuli xelmowera daculi, usafrTxo da komfortulia bankis klientebisTvis, dokumentis dedani eleqtronulad inaxeba da saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi yovelTvis xelmisawvdomia.

biznesgamofena – „proeqspo“! pirvelad saqarTveloSi, „prokredit bankma“ sakuTari klientebis produqciis gamofena-gayidva warmoadgina. „eqspo jorjias“ IV pavilionSi, „prokredit bankis“ 80-mde klientma damTvalierebels sakuTari produqcia specialuri fasdaklebiT warmoudgina. „prokredit bankma“ aRniSnuli RonisZiebiT qarTuli mcire biznesebis produqciis popularizaciasa da cnobadobis amaRlebas Seuwyo xeli!

Fitch Ratings-ma „prokredit bankis“ perspeqtiva stabiluridan pozitiuriT Secvala saerTaSoriso sareitingo saagento Fitch Ratings-is monacemebiT, „prokredit banki“ kvlav inarCunebs saukeTeso da yvelaze maRal SesaZlo reitings saqarTveloSi, romelic erTi safexuriT maRalia qveynis suverenul reitingze. saagentom „prokredit bankis“ grZelvadiani emitentis defoltis (IDRs) reitingi BB daadastura da stabiluri perspeqtiva pozitiuramde gaaumjobesa.

3D usafrTxoeba - usafrTxo onlain SesyidvebisTvis! „prokredit bankma“ saerTaSoriso kompania VISA-sTan da MasterCard-Tan erTad momxmareblebs axali momsaxureba 3D

usafrTxoeba SesTavaza – plastikuri baraTis usafrTxoebisTvis onlainSesyidvebisas! 3D usafrTxoebis servisiT sargebloba SesaZlebelia Verified by VISA da/an MasterCard SecureCode statusis mqone vebgverdebze. aRniSnul vebgverdebze internetSesyidvis dadastureba unikaluri onlainidentifikatoriT – 3D kodiT xdeba, rac gayalbebi- asmus rotne sgan maqsimalur dac- prokredit bankis vas uzrunvelyofs. generaluri direqtori garda aRniSnuli proeqtebisa, „prokredit bankisTvis“ mniSvnelovani iyo mimdinare wels miRebuli jildoebi: garemos dacvis saministros organizebiT Catarebuli konkursis „qarTuli mwvane biznesi 2014“-is farglebSi, „prokredit banki“ dajildovda saukeTeso „mwvane servisisTvis“. mediaholding Georgian Times-isa da saqarTvelos sazogadoebrivi azrisa da marketinguli kvlevebis asociacia GORBI-is erToblivi organizebiT, biznesreitingis dajildoebis ceremoniaSi bankma gaimarjva nominaciebSi „axali teqnologiebi“, „sainvesticio mimzidveloba“, „uaxlesi standartebi“, „mcire da saSualo biznesis mxardaWera“. gaeros ganviTarebis programis (UNDP) saqarTveloSi da SvedeTis mTavrobis mxardaWeriT ganxorcielebuli proeqtis farglebSi, „prokredit bankma“ miiRo jildo genderuli balansisaTvis aRmasrulebel doneze.

bankis 2015 wlis gegmebi rac Seexeba 2015 wlis gegmebs, bankis ZiriTad orientirad kvlavac darCeba mcire da saSualo biznesebis mxardaWera, maTTvis daxvewili da srulyofili momsaxurebis SeTavazeba da saukeTeso pirobebis Seqmna. igegmeba bazris wilis zrda am kuTxiT, rac jansaRi ambiciaa „prokredit bankis“ ZiriTadi saorientacio segmentis gaTvaliswinebiT. sakredito portfelis zrdasTan erTad, igegmeba bankis moziduli saxsrebis zrda biznessegmentSi. 2015 weli mniSvnelovani iqneba imiTac, rom „prokredit banki“ momxmareblebs inovaciur sabanko momsaxurebebs SesTavazebs, romelze muSaoba ukve aqtiurad mimdinareobs. gvsurs Cvenma klientebma ufro meti damoukidebloba igrZnon sabanko momsaxurebis Sesrulebisas da Tavadac SeZlon garkveuli operaciebis ganxorcieleba maTTvis xelsayrel pirobebSi, nebismier dros nebismieri adgilidan. odesme misulxarT filialSi samuSao dRis dasrulebis Semdeg da imedgacruebuli darCenilxarT?! swored amitom, „prokredit banki“ Tavis klientebs 24-saaTian TviTmomsaxurebis zonas sTavazobs. TviTmomsaxurebis sivrcis gafarToeba da ufro meti servisebis xelmisawvdomoba 2015 wlis erT-erT strategiul mimarTulebas warmoadgens, risTvisac banki teqnologiur ganviTarebaSi investiciebis ganxorcielebas ganagrZobs. ukve miRweuli Sedegebi da dagegmili proeqtebi gvaZlevs stimulsa da molodins, rom 2015 weli kidev ufro nayofieri, warmatebuli da efeqturi iqneba „prokredit bankisTvis“. n

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uZravi qoneba: mzardi bazari da stabiluri fasebi

dgilobrivi uZravi qonebis bazarze moTxovna stabilurad mzardia. 2014 wels, 2013 welTan SedarebiT, moTxovna sacxovrebel uZrav qonebaze gaizarda. amis dasturia TbilisSi ganxorcilebuli garigebebis raodenoba. Cveni winaswari monacemebiT, es maCvenebeli gasuli wlis analogs 5%-6%-iT aRemateba. uZravi qonebis seqtorSi mzardi aqtiurobis dasturia aseve is faqti, rom saqarTveloSi 2014 wlis me-3 kvartalSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis (507 mln aSS dolari) mniSvnelovani nawili samSeneblo da uZravi qonebis seqtorebSi ganxorcielda. kerZod, 32% samSeneblo seqtorSi, xolo 12% – uZravi qonebis seqtorSi. Cveni kompaniis magaliTze SegviZlia giTxraT, rom moTxovna mSenebare da axalaSenebul binebze didia. 2014 wels m2-ma 576 bina gayida, rac Cveni kompaniis istoriaSi saukeTeso Sedegia. rac Seexeba fasebs, SemiZlia Tamamad

Cven zrdaze orientirebuli kompania varT. uZravi qonebis developmentis seqtorSi inovaciuri midgomebiT gamovirCeviT da korporaciuli marTvis Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso principebs vnergavT vTqva, rom 2014 wels sacxovrebeli uZravi qonebis bazarze fasebi SedarebiT stabilurobiT gamoirCeoda da am mimarTulebiT mxolod umniSvnelo zrda SeiniSneboda. vfiqrobT, msgavsi tendencia 2015 welsac gagrZeldeba: vvaraudobT, rom sacxovrebeli uZravi qonebis bazarze ganxorcielebuli garigebebis raodenoba gaizrdeba maSin, rodesac fasebis kuTxiT ar veliT raime sagrZnob cvlilebas. amJamad Cveni kompania paralelurad oTxi energoefeqturi mravalbiniani sacxovrebeli kompleqsis mSeneblobas axorcielebs: m2 nucubiZeze, m2 yazbegze, m2 TamaraSvilze da `optima isani~. garda amisa, aRsaniSnavia

isic, rom Cvens mSenebare proeqtebSi binebze sakmaod maRali moTxovnaa gayidvebis dawyebis momentidanve. magaliTad: proeqti m2 yazbegze 2016 wlis TebervalSi sruldeba da am droisTvis binebis 85% ukve gayidulia, m2 nucubiZeze 2015 wlis noemberSi sruldeba da binebis 74%-ia gayiduli. rac Seexeba danarCen 2 proeqts, romlebic 2014 wlis meore naxevarSi daviwyeT: m2 TamaraSvilze – binebis 58%, xolo proeqtSi òptima isani~ – 47% ukve gayidulia. binis SeZenis dros, garda adgilmdebareobisa da fasisa, myidveli gansakuTrebul yuradRebas aqcevs mSeneblobis xarisxs. am kuTxiT, rasakvirvelia, momxmarebels urCevnia axalaSenebul an mSenebare kompleqsSi iyidos bina, romelic Tanamedrove teqnologiebiT da xarisxis mkacri dacviT Sendeba. amasTan erTad, Cveni yvela mimdinare proeqti energoefeqturia, rac gulisxmobs imas, rom daTbunebuli kedlebisa da sxva energoefeqturi komponentebis meSveobiT, mcxovreblebi daaxloebiT 20-23 %-mde Tanxas dazogaven komunalur gadasaxadebze. damatebiT, klientebs srulad garemontebul binebs vTavazobT, vzogavT maT dros da damatebiT komforts vuqmniT. vfiqrob, wlevandeli weli kidev ufro aqtiuri iqneba Cveni kompaniisTvis. amJamad m2 CarTulia ramdenime axali proeqtis momzadebaSi. vapirebT, klientebs SevTavazoT axali sacxovrebeli kompleqsebi qalaqis sxvadasxva ubnebSi. Tumca, saburTalos raioni kvlav rCeba Cveni koncentraciis prioritetul mimarTulebad. 2014 wels, Cven daviwyeT òptimas~ xazis pirveli proeqti, romelic saocari siswrafiT gaiyida. Sesabamisad, vapirebT am mimarTulebis ganviTarebas da òptimas~ xazis mSeneblobebis gagrZelebas. maT Soris – saburTalos raionSic. Cven zrdaze orientirebuli kompania varT. uZravi qonebis developmentis seqtorSi inovaciuri midgomebiT gamovirCeviT da korporaciuli marTvis Tanamedrove saerTaSoriso principebs vnergavT. es yvelaferi, bunebrivia, aisaxeba rogorc kompaniis ganviTarebis tempze, ise mis momgebianobaze. Cven axal proeqtebze muSaobas vagrZelebT da vgegmavT, rom momaval welsac warvudginoT momxmareblebs saintereso SeTavazebebi. uaxloes momavalSi, sacxovrebeli kompleqsebis mSenebloba m2-is ZiriTad mimarTulebad darCeba. vmuSaobT ramdenime seriozul grZelvadian proeqtze, romelTa ganxorcieleba 2015 da 2016 wlebSi daiwyeba. Cven ufro met adamians mivcemT saSualebas, icxovron ukeTesad. n

irakli burdilaZe developeruli kompaniis `m2 uZravi qoneba~ sameTvalyureo sabWos Tavmjdomare

moTxovna mSenebare da axalaSenebul binebze didia

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/biznesi

159

Quadrum-is qarTuli proeqtebi saerTaSoriso standartebi adgilobrivi bazrisTvis

amdenime wlis win Quadrum Global group saqarTvelos bazarze ori didi masStabis proeqtiT Semovida. pirveli maTgani – EastPoint Tbilisi, savaWro da gasarTobi kompleqsi iyo, romelic kaxeTis gzatkecilze, Tbilisis SemosasvlelSi mdebareobs. `es gaxldaT Cveni tipis kompaniisTvis pioneruli gadawyvetileba, radgan Cveni Semosvla daemTxva periods, rodesac qveyana ucxouri investiciebis mosazidad ibrZoda. saqarTvelo axalgazrda saxelmwifod aRviqviT, romelic ucxouri investiciebisTvis Ria gaxldaT. aseve miviCnieT, rom Tbilisi dinamikuri qalaqi iyo, Zvelisa da axlis saintereso sinTeziT. swored aseTi nazavi iqneba Cveni savaWro centri – mTiani landSaftis mqone quCebis Tanamedrove formati, raTa unikaluri daniSnulebis adgili Seqmnas yvelasTvis~, – ambobs Quadrum Global group-is damfuZnebeli da aRmasrulebeli direqtori oleg pavlovi. EastPoint Tbilisi ganTavsebulia 24 heqtar miwis nakveTze. aq 70 000 kv.m. gasaqiravebeli farTia. proeqti multifunqciuri savaWro da gasarTobi centria – bavSvTa gasarTobi centriT, hipermarketebiT, eleqtro Tu sayofacxovrebo teqnikis maRaziebiT, tansacmlis, fexsacmlisa da aqsesuarebis 150-ze meti maRaziiT, swrafi kvebisa da restornebis farTo arCevaniT. EastPoint Tbilisi aSenda CBD Development-is mier, romelic Quadrum Global-is Svilobili kompaniaa. CBD Development-is direqtoris tomas gizasis sityvebiT: `CvenTan warmodgenili iqneba rogorc arsebuli, aseve is saerTaSoriso brendebi, romlebic pirvelad dainteresdnen adgilobrivi bazriT. magaliTad, gveqneba kinoTeatri 10 ekraniT da aseve IMAX-is darbazi – kinoekrani, romelic udidesi iqneba evropis masStabiTac. aseve imuSavebs maRazia, sadac momxmarebeli SeZlebs SeiZinos yvelaferi saxlisa da remontisTvis (DIY), da rac mTavaria – sabavSvo-gasarTobi da saganmanaTleblo centri, romelic 3500 kv. metrze iqneba gadaWimuli~. batoni gizasi acxadebs, rom proeqti pasuxobs saerTaSoriso standartebs da unikaluria sakuTari koncefciiTa da arqiteqturiT: `Ria savaWro da gasarTobi centris koncefcia, inovaciuri arqiteqtura, kargi brendmiqsi, saukeTeso SemoTavazebebi da momxmarebelze orientirebuli servisi mTeli ojaxisaTvis, gasarTob da komfortul garemos qmnis~. es e.w. One Day Gateway saSualo Semosavlis mqone adami-

anebzea gaTvlili da mTeli ojaxisaTvis dasasveneblad da gasarTobad saukeTeso ganwyobas qmnis. savaWro centri 2015 wels gaixsneba. ianvris Tvis monacemebiT, ukve gaqiravebulia farTis 75%, xolo mTliani sainvesticio Rirebuleba 90 mln aSS dolaria. Quadrum Global group-is meore didi proeqti gaxlavT T bilisi Gardens, romelic 120 mln aSS dolaris biujetis maRali klasis sacxovrebeli kompleqsia. `Tbilisi Gardens ramdenime fazisgan Sedgeba: pirveli etapis sainvesticio Rirebuleba 30 mln aSS dolaria~, – ambobs batoni oleg pavlovi da amatebs, rom gansakuTrebuli yuradReba garemosdacviT Temas mieZRvneba: `Cvenma TanamSromlebma specialuri treningebi gaiares. Cven SevinarCunebT adgilze nargavebs, ise rom, gveqneba Tanamedrove, maRali klasis Senobebi mwvane parkiT. bevri developeri arc ki cdilobs msgavsi ramis gakeTebas~. tomas gizasi ambobs, rom es iqneba axali sityva adgilobriv bazarze. misi SefasebiT, Tbilisis infrastruqturis 70% sabWoTa kavSiris droindelia da amJamad Senobebis saeqspluatacio vada amowurulia, rac saukeTeso droa investorebisTvis. `vaSenebT sacxovrebel kompleqss, romelic Tanamedrove da mimzidveli iqneba dedamiwis nebismier wertilSi – dawyebuli niu-iorkiT da hong-kongiT damTavrebuli. Cveni Senobebi yvela saerTaSoriso standarts daakmayofilebs, romelTagan zogierTi adgilobrivze bevrad maRalia. xanZarsawinaaRmdego usafrTxoeba, seismuri da nagvis gatanis sistemebi, sacurao auzebi, saerTo teritoria, usafrTxoeba, miwisqveSa parkingi, fitnescentri, saTamaSo moednebi bavSvebisTvis – Cvens rezidentebs es yvelaferi kompleqsSi daxvdebaT. pirveli Senoba 30-sarTuliani iqneba, xolo fasebi – bazrisTvis relevanturi. momxmareblebs fasi/ xarisxis karg Sefardebas SevTavazebT~. `sakuTari proeqtebis warmatebaSi eWvi ar gvepareba da rodesac Sedegs davinaxavT, axal proeqtebsac daviwyebT~, – acxadebs batoni gizasi. n

160

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arqi jgufi mSeneblobis masStabebs zrdis ilia wulaia

uZravi qonebis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba saSualebas gvaZlevs, kidev ufro gavafarTovoT sakuTari mSeneblobis masStabi da movicvaT Tbilisis yvela ubani

ipodromTan arsebuli teritoria 300-mde nergiT. garda amisa, energoefeqturi saSeni masalebic pirdapir aisaxeba garemos keTildReobaze. swored amitom, Cveni saxlebi Sendeba maRali xarisxis, Tanamedrove teqnologiebiT damzadebuli Ytong-is blokiT. Ytogn aris germanuli brendi, romlis samSeneblo masala farTod gamoiyeneba mTel msoflioSi. Cveulebrivi betonis samSeneblo blokTan SedarebiT, Ytong-is bloks 7-jer naklebi Tbogamtaroba aqvs (Tboizolaciis koeficienti 0,012 vt/kv.m.). am blokiT aSenebuli kedeli ufro didxans inarCunebs oTaxis temperaturas da Sesabamisad, daaxloebiT 40%-iT naklebi energia ixarjeba Senobis gasaTbobad an gasagrileblad. `arqi jgufis~ kidev erTi slogania `arqi jgufi – Tbilisis yvela ubanSi~. es niSnavs imas, rom Cveni kompania cdilobs yvela kategoriis momxmareblisTvis

2015 wels samSeneblo bazari kidev ufro aqtiuri iqneba

014 wels developeruli bazari sagrZnoblad ganviTarda. uZrav qonebaze moTxovna gaizarda, magram miuxedavad amisa, fasebis mniSvnelovani mateba ar momxdara, radgan miwodebamac Sesabamisad upasuxa moTxovnas. garda amisa, momxmarebeli ufro gaTviTcnobierebuli gaxda – yuradRebas aqcevs developeris sandoobas, miwodebul xarisxs, aseve did mniSvnelobas aniWebs uZrav qonebasTan dakavSirebul iuridiul sakiTxebs, rac Zalian kargi tendenciaa.

`arqi jgufis~ yvela saxli evropuli xarisxiT Sendeba

ilia wulaia: „arqi jgufis“ damfuZnebeli da aRmasrulebeli direqtori

samSeneblo bazarze binebis sruli remontiT gayidvis trendi fiqsirdeba. es dakavSirebulia bazris evropuli standartebis mimarT swrafvasTan, rac dadebiTi movlenaa. ra Tqma unda, amgvari midgoma mniSvnelovnad aumjobesebs mSeneblobis xarisxs. `arqi jgufis~ yvela saxli evropuli xarisxiT Sendeba. swored amitom Cveni slogania - `Seni evropuli saxli~, rac niSnavs imas, rom mTavari prioritetebia binebis umaRlesi xarisxiT Cabareba. garda amisa, yoveli Cveni axali proeqti sruli remontiT Cabardeba binis mflobels. mosaxleobis xarisxiani sacxovrebliT uzrunvelyofasTan erTad, mniSvnelovania garemoze, qalaqis iersaxesa da gamwvanebaze zrunva. am mxriv, `arqi jgufi~ axal precedents qmnis – kompania yoveli aSenebuli 10 kvadratuli metris sanacvlod 1 xes dargavs. Cven ukve gavamwvaneT

hqondes sasurveli produqti. Sesabamisad, nebismieri momxmarebeli, romelic àrqi jgufSi~ moisurvebs binis SeZenas, aucileblad ipovis misTvis sasurvel ubanSi da misi survilis Sesabamisad dagegmarebul binas. swored am mizniT, Cven gvaqvs specialuri samsaxuri, romelic bazris kvlevis safuZvelze swavlobs moTxovnis specifikas ubnebis mixedviT da amuSavebs am informacias, raTa zustad movargoT binebis gegmareba klientis survils. uZravi qonebis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba saSualebas gvaZlevs, kidev ufro gavafarTovoT sakuTari mSeneblobis masStabi da movicvaT Tbilisis yvela ubani, raTa Cven klientebs arCevanis meti saSualeba hqondeT. 2015 wels àrqi jgufi~ TbilisSi 5-6 axal proeqts daiwyebs, romelTa saerTo moculoba daxloebiT 100 000 kv.m. iqneba, rac sakmaod maRali maCvenebelia saqarTvelos uZravi qonebis bazrisTvis. Cveni mosazrebiT, 2015 wels samSeneblo bazari kidev ufro aqtiuri iqneba. amis varaudis ramdenime faqtori arsebobs: upirvelesad, unda aRiniSnos, rom bankebis mier ipoTekuri sesxis gacema gamartivda. garda amisa, mSeneblobebis xarisxi umjobesdeba, rac ufro meti aqtiurobiT ganawyobs klientebs axalaSenebuli saxlebis SesaZenad. rac Seexeba ucxoel klientebs, ukraina-ruseTis konfliqtidan gamomdinare, am regionebidan maTi raodenoba Semcirebulia da es tendencia albaT 2015 welsac gagrZeldeba. zogadad, gvinda aRvniSnoT, rom àrqi jgufi~, garda developeruli mimarTulebisa, biznesis sxva sferoebSic aqtiurobs. Cvens ucxoel partniorebTan erTad, investiciebs vaxorcielebT sastumroebis mSeneblobaSi. wels erTi axali sastumros mSenebloba dasruldeba da vgegmavT kidev erTi, daaxloebiT 150-nomriani sastumros mSeneblobis dawyebas. aseve, 2015 wels Cven viwyebT germanuli energoefeqturi samSeneblo blokis Ytong-is qarxnis mSeneblobas. am proeqtSi daaxloebiT 20 milioni evros investiciis ganxorcieleba igegmeba. 2015 wels, àrqi jgufis~ mizania darCes wamyvan, saimedo, xarisxTan asocirebul da progresul kompaniad, saqmianobis yvela mimarTulebiT. n

msoflio 2015

saqarTvelo/biznesi

161

„kredo“: Cven vqmniT SesaZleblobebs

redo~ saqarTvelos mikrosafinanso bazarze 15 welze metia moRvaweobs da bazris TiTqmis 50%-s flobs. igi wamyvani mikrosafinanso organizaciaa. `kredos misiaa mikro, mcire da saSualo biznesebis mdgradi finansuri servisiT uzrunvelyofa. `Cveni misiidan gamomdinare, sasiamovnoa imis codna, rom Seni saqmianobiT dasaqmebis SesaZleblobebs zrdi qveyanaSi. 2014 wels Zalian mniSvnelovani cvlileba ganxorcielda kredoSi: kompanias axali mflobeli hyavs. es nabiji gazrdis xelmisawvdomobas finansur produqtebze, rac ganapirobebs axali segmentis aTvisebas da momxmareblebisaTvis farTo asortimentis finansuri produqtebis SeTavazebas~, – ambobs `kredos~ sazogadoebasTan urTierTobis menejeri ana trapaiZe. wamyvani mikrosafinanso organizacia `kredo~ socialuri gavlenis investorTa konsorciumma SeiZina. konsorciumi Access Microfinance Holding AG (Access Holding), responsAbility Investments AG (responsAbility) da Triodos Investment Management BV (Triodos)-gan Sedgeba. `kredos~ damfuZnebeli VisionFund International-i gaxldaT, romelmac 2011 wels SemuSavebuli strategiis safuZvelze, resursebis fokusireba afrikis, aziisa da laTinuri amerikis qveynebze gadaitana. `kredo~ VisionFund International-is qselis wamyvani mikrosafinanso organizacia iyo. misi gamocdili da motivirebuli menejmentis damsaxurebaa is, rom kompaniis zrdas axlavs xarisxis gaumjobeseba da momxmareblis uzrunvelyofa miznobrivi inovaciebiTa da umaRlesi donis momsaxurebiT. `kredos personals, menejmentsa da mis axal mflobelebs vusurvebT warmatebas da vimedovnebT, rom isini gaagrZeleben kompaniis zrdas da ganviTarebas kredos socialuri miznebis misaRwevad~, – ambobs VisionFund International-is aRmasrulebeli direqtori skot brauni. AccessGroup-is sameTvalyureo sabWos Tavmjdomare tomas engelhardti miiCnevs, rom `kredom da AccessGroup-ma Zalze mniSvnelovani wvlili Seitanes korporaciuli kulturis, momxmareblis orientirebisa da maT mier biznesis warmoebisadmi midgomis ganviTarebaSi~. `aRfrTovanebuli varT kredos personaliTa da menejmentiT, romlebTan erTadac Cvens kompanias ganviTarebis ufro maRal safexurze aviyvanT, SeTavazebuli produqtis, momsaxurebisa da sadistribucio arxebis gafarToebis kuTxiT. moxarulni varT, rom am mniSvnelovan garigebaSi monawileoba miiRes Cvenma didi xnis strategiulma partniorebma – responsAbility da Triodos, romlebsac msgavsi faseulobebisadmi erTguleba da industriis udidesi gamocdileba aqvT~, – acxadebs tomas engelhardti. `Cven vamayobT imiT, rom wlebis ganmavlobaSi vaxorcielebT mikrosafinanso industriis mxardaWeras saqarTveloSi. kredos gansakuTrebuli personali da menejmenti organizaciis warmatebis birTvs warmoadgenen. vimedovnebT, rom AccessGroup da Triodos-Tan erTad CamovayalibebT kredos saimedo momavals~, – acxadebs responsAbility Investments-is finansur instituciebSi kapitalis investirebis xelmZRvaneli maiql faibigi. `Cven wlebis ganmavlobaSi vpartniorobT kredosa da VisionFund-Tan da Zalze maRal doneze vafasebT menejmentisa da sameTvalyureo sabWos mier Catarebul samuSaos. kredo aris saerTaSoriso masStabiT aRi-

arebuli kompania, romelic saqarTvelos mTel teritoriaze axorcielebs momsaxurebas mikrosafinanso sferoSi. vamayobT imiT, rom saSualeba mogveca konsorciumis meSveobiT ganvaviTaroT saqmiani urTierTobebi iseT saimedo partniorebTan erTad, rogorebic arian AccessHolding da responsAbility. kredos menejmentTan erToblivi ZalisxmeviT, Cven gavagrZelebT kompaniis ganviTarebas da gadavaqcevT mas saimedo da xelmisawvdomi momsaxurebis mimwodeblad, saqarTvelos ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis uzrunvelsayofad~, – dasZina Triodos Investment Management-is ganviTarebadi bazrebis menejeris moadgilem frank strepelma. rac Seexeba AccesHolding-s, kompania ana trapaiZe daarsda 2006 wels soliduri reputaciis „kredos“ mqone saerTaSoriso investorTa jgufis sazogadoebasTan mier, saxelmwifo da kerZo seqtorebidan. urTierTobis AccessHolding-is qselSi Sedis cxra banki menejeri da mikrosafinanso organizacia, maT Soris – azerbaijansa da tajikeTSi. AccessBanksis saqmianoba fokusirebulia iseT miznobriv jgufebze, rogorebicaa mikro, mcire da saSualo mewarmeoba. AccessBank-is qselSi dasaqmebulia 7000-ze meti adamiani. mis marTvaSia 1.4 miliard aSS dolarze meti sasesxo portfeli da momxmareblebis 0.6 miliard aSS dolaramde depozitebi. responsAbility responsAbility Investments AG warmoadgens aqtivebis marTvis dargSi msoflios wamyvani damoukidebeli menejmentis jgufs, romelTa specializaciis sferoa ganviTarebadi ekonomikis seqtorebis xelSewyoba. maTi saqmianoba moicavs iseT dargebs, rogorebicaa finansebi, soflis meurneoba, energetika, jandacva da ganaTleba. responsAbility uzrunvelyofs birJaze dauregistrirebeli iseTi kompaniebis finansirebas, romelTa biznesmodeli mosaxleobis dabalSemosavlian kategoriazea orientirebuli, da riTac stimulirdeba qveynis ekonomikuri zrda da socialuri ganviTareba. 2003 wels daarsebuli responsAbility amJamad marTavs 2.2 miliard aSS dolaris aqtivebs, romlebic 90 qveynis 500 kompaniaSia investirebuli. responsAbilityis saTao ofisi mdebareobs qalaq ciurixSi, xolo misi regionuli warmomadgenlobebi – parizSi, limaSi, mumbaisa da nairobiSi. Triodos Investment Management Triodos Investment Management msoflios erT-erTi wamyvani bankis, Triodos Bank-is sakuTrebaSi arsebuli Svilobili kompaniaa. Triodos Investment Management gaxlavT saerTaSoriso masStabiT aRiarebuli kompania, romlis saqmianobis sferoebia investiciebisa da sainvesticio fondebis marTva iseT dargebSi, rogorebicaa ganaxlebadi energetika, mdgradi uZravi qoneba da ganviTarebadi bazrebis donoruli finansireba. 2013 bolosTvis, kompaniis kombinirebuli aqtivebi 2,5 miliard evros Seadgenda. 1994 wlidan, donorul finansirebaSi dabandebulma aqtivebma 550 mln evros gadaaWarba. am maCvenebliT, kompania industriaSi umsxvilesi investori xdeba. specializebuli fondebis meSveobiT, Triodos Investment Management 44 qveynis 112-mde damwyeb da funqcionirebad safinanso organizaciebis finansirebas uzrunvelyofs. n

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msoflio 2015

niutonis Tavisufali skola

iutonis Tavisufali skola~ mxolod ori welia rac gaixsna. am xnis ganmavlobaSi man ukve moaswro saganmanaTleblo sivrceSi axali sityvis Tqma da brendadac iqca. skola yuradRebas saxelwodebis gamoc iqcevs. giorgi melaZe ixsenebs, rom am sakiTxze didxans ifiqres da bolos, didi mecnieris saxelze SeCerdnen: `iseve, rogorc niutons, vaSlis Camovardnam udidesi aRmoCena da aRiareba moutana, vfiqrobT, rom nebismieri momenti an SesaZlebloba, udidesi warmatebis momtani SeiZleba gaxdes adamianisTvis, Tu is azrovnebs da sworad iyenebs sakuTar SesaZleblobebsa da Seqmnil situacias~. skolas pirvelidan meTormete klasis CaTvliT hyavs moswavleebi. 2014 wels niutonSi swavlis dawyebis msurvelTa raodenoba misaRebze samjer meti iyo. imisTvis, rom niutonis Tavisufali skolis moswavle gaxde, gasaubrebis gavla da gamocdis Cabarebaa saWiro. I-IVklasis moswavleebs gasaubreba dawyebiTi klasis pedagogebTan utardebaT. isini momavali moswavleebis kognitur da socialur unarebs TamaSebiT amowmeben. ufrosklaselebs testuri gamocdis Cabareba sabunebismetyvelo mecnierebebSi, qarTul enasa da maTematikaSi uwevT. `Cveni skola ori wlis win gaixsna. moswavleTa umetesobas axali skolis principebTan Segueba gauWirda. aRmoCnda, rom maTTvis faqtis damaxsovreba ufro advili iyo, vidre misi analizi. arada, CvenTan mTavari aqcenti azrovnebis, Sefasebis unaris ganviTarebaze keTdeba. niutonis skolis moswavleebi pasuxebs ar izepireben, isini azrovneben!~ – aRniSnavs skolis direqtori giorgi melaZe. skolisTvis mniSvnelovania moswavleTa akademiuri moswreba. magaliTad, gasul wels, `niutonis Tavisufali skola~ iZulebuli gaxda, asormocdaaT, SedarebiT sust moswavles damSvidobeboda. swavlis paralelurad, mniSvnelovania moswavleTa pirovnuli Tvisebebis ganviTareba-daxvewa. skolis direqtori miiCnevs, rom `skola cxovrebis moklevadiani simulaciaa~. `niutonSi moswavlis, rogorc individis, ganviTarebas vuwyobT xels. imis gamo, rom maTi gamoxatvis Tavisufleba ar SegvezRuda, uari vTqviT erTnair saskolo formaze~, – ambobs giorgi melaZe. Tumca, igi aRniSnavs, rom niutonis moswavleebs ramdenime saerTo Tviseba mainc aqvT – yvela cnobismoyvare da gaxsnilia. isini Tavisuflad azrovneben. skolaSi savaldebulo gakveTilebi dilidan oTx saaTamde tardeba, xolo oTxidan

eqvs saaTamde moswavleebs saSualeba aqvT gaerTiandnen skolaSi moqmed 40-mde klubSi. `gamodis, rom kviraSi 10 saaTi maT SeuZliaT sxvadasxva saskolo Tu arasaskolo saganSi moZlierdnen – ucxo enebis, sportis, debatebis, xatvis, Zerwvis, curvis Tu musikis ganxriT~, – ganmartavs melaZe, – `CvenTvis mTavari ucxo ena inglisuria, xolo meore – rusuli. aseve gvaqvs germanuli, espanuri, franguli, Cinuri, iaponuri enebis klubebic~. skolis wliuri gadasaxadi, yvela klasis moswavlisTvis, Seadgens 4200 lars. skolam wels saswavlo grantis dawesebiT moswavleebis waxaliseba gadawyvita: warmatebuli da niWieri moswavleebi saswavlo grantiT dajildovdebian. aseve, waxalisdebian saerTaSoriso Tu adgilobriv konkursebSi gamarjvebuli moswavleebi, romlebsac swavlis gagrZeleba niutonSi surT. `niWieri da xelmokle moswavleebisTvis saswavlo granti 500 laridan iwyeba. situaciidan gamomdinare, SesaZlebelia niutonSi swavlis srulad dafinansebac~, – ambobs giorgi melaZe. skolis daarsebis pirvelive wels, maswavleblis 150 vakantur adgilze 3000 gancxadeba Semovida. maTgan yvelaze kvalificiuri kadrebi niutonis ojaxis wevrebi arian. skola zrunavs maTi kvalifikaciis amaRlebaze da paralelurad agrZelebs saukeTeso maswavleblebis Ziebas. 2014 wels niutonSi skolamdeli aRzrdis programis jgufi gaixsna. 5-6 wlis bavSvebTan gamocdili fsiqologebi muSaoben da maT saskolo cxovrebis dasawyebad amzadeben. mniSvnelovania, rom momavali moswavleebi gonebrivad da fizikurad iyvnen mzad. maTgan saukeTesoebi, maswavleblis rekomendaciiT, gasaubrebis gareSe gaxdebian niutonelebi.

giorgi melaZe `niutonis Tavisufali skolis“ direqtori

sportuli filiali saguramoSi 2015-2016 saswavlo wlisTvis niutonis Tavisufali skola saguramoSi filialis gaxsnas gegmavs. skola safexburTo klub `lokomotivis~ sawvrTnel bazaze Seiqmneba. `saguramos skolaSi, moswavle, `kargi swavlis garda~ mniSvnelovan dros dauTmobs fizikur ganviTarebas. isini iswavlian drois marTvas, gundurad muSaobas, TviTdisciplinas da Tundac warumateblobasTan gamklavebas. moswavleebisTvis es minimum seriozuli hobisa da janmrTeli cxovrebis sawindari iqneba, xolo niWierebs profesional sportsmenebad Camoyalibebis saSualeba eqnebaT. sportul nawils `lokomotivis~ uZlieresi mwvrTnelebi waruZRvebian~. saguramos filialSi moswavleebisTvis xelmisawvdomi iqneba fexburTisa da CogburTis moednebi da sacurao auzi. n

Tu goneba gaxsnili gaqvs, yvelafris miRwevaa SesaZlebeli