POLITICS

The Underlying Dangers of Division

Protesters in Tbilisi march in the center of the city against European Union integration as well as the involvement of concurrent Tbilisi Pride demonstrators Photo by Irakli Gedenidze/Reuters

OP-ED BY MICHAEL GODWIN

The concept of “Us versus Them” is something that has been a part of humanity since the infancy of our species. It could easily be argued that it was a piece of the proverbial mother that taught us the idea of self-preservation and unity among the “tribe” of either family or simply likeminded people. Perhaps it even guided us into our ascent to being the dominant species on the planet. However, in the modern era, this concept has been abused to such an extent that we are seen doing horrible things to our own countrymen and brethren.

This takes multiple forms; from refusal of entry across a nation's borders to persecution and ultimately mass murder of a group of people. Any division is part of a “Divide and Conquer” strategy, even if those involved don't realize it. If allowed to persist and develop, this often leads to much more tragic endings, one of which is genocide.

Genocide is an exceptionally strong word. First termed in 1944 as the Allied Forces discovered the atrocities committed by the Nazi regime, it quickly became used in legal terms during postwar war crime trials. In 1946, the United Nations General Assembly made genocide a crime punishable under international law. However, such atrocities are not uncommon in the modern world. Some do not elevate to the horrifi c level seen in Nazi-controlled Germany, Soviet Russia, or Communist China. Some have yet to be seen.

Dr. Gregory H. Stanton, the president of Genocide Watch, defi ned genocide very specifi cally by saying; “Genocide is a process that develops in eight stages that are predictable, but not inexorable. At each stage, preventive measures can stop it. It is not a linear process, but, logically, the later stages must be preceded by the earlier stages. Logically, the prior stages continue to operate throughout the process.”

Each stage is heavily rooted in the government-people relationship and the modern concept of democracy operating under the consent of the governed. The very concept of public offi cials working at the behest and betterment of the people is something that is relatively new in the broader concept of civilizations. Over time, the execution of this system has seemingly gone awry from its written ideals.

Most identify the fi rst six stages of this list as not truly genocide. They are merely identifi ers, and as Dr. Stanton noted, are simply warning signs of what could become reality. In addition, these steps are not mutually exclusive, but rather can occur either independently or concurrently. These eight steps have proven to be evident throughout history.

1. CLASSIFICATION

The fi rst stage is the labeling of the “desirables” and “undesirables”. Both terms are completely subjective to the views of the individual and are formulated on the information they are given about other members of their society. Much of this is based upon political ideology, but other classifi cation initiatives include the religious and the non-religious, vaccinated and unvaccinated, and foreigner and local.

The simple solution to this is the willingness to focus on commonalities rather than highlighting the differences. However, this is easier said than done, as the ideologies one pre-possesses become a part of the individual with enough indoctrination. Just as one who wields a sword accepts that the weapon is now an extension of themselves and their will, one who accepts an ideology allows it to become a part of themselves as well. The combination of this extension and the classifi cation of another allows them to extend that reach to the perceived undesirables.

2. SYMBOLIZATION

The application of a name or symbol to something foreign has been a part of human nature for a long time. However, the application of the names or symbols when applied to another group based solely on the inalienable characteristics of that group or their non-violent ideologies creates a sense of discrimination against that group.

This symbolization can take form in multiple ways. Historically, it has come in the form of dress styles, required identifi cation devices, or even their being moved to reside in a different location away from the remainder of society. In the modern age, this has advanced to social media, with labeling and tagging of those deemed to be a part of various groups, organizations or having a certain ideology. A large part of this is the use of symbolism as a way to dehumanize that group.

3. DEHUMANIZATION

This stage involves the removal of humanity of those opposite to one’s own group. Complete removal of the idea that these people are even possessive of human identity and rights is accomplished during this stage. With classifi cation and symbolization, dehumanization separates those individuals targeted to be removed from what is perceived to be “normal” society, as not only “outsiders” but as a “disease” or a “poison” to that said society.

Many times, these people are associated with already dehumanized groups. Linking the opposing people with communism, nazism, racism, facism, or any of the other litany of “-ist” or “ism” terms only helps with the distancing and dehumanizing effect. Once this is done, the effect of violent acts committed becomes much easier and far more acceptable to the populace infl icting the behavior.

4. ORGANIZATION

The exclusion and discrimination of another group becomes systematic during this phase. In the past, the formalization of the persecution of those labeled as undesirables has even taken a bureaucratic model. Nazi Germany had an extremely rigorous and administrative method to the killing of their victims, as did the regimentation and conduct of the Interahamwe in the Rwandan genocide.

This organization is typically a legal power, represented in political bodies. This lends some semblance of authenticity to their push for the further persecution of the aforementioned “undesirables,” and protects the central government from responsibility. Their vision is then pushed out to schools, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), and foreign partners, to even further paint the image that they are in favor of purging the “undesirables” from their country.

5. POLARIZATION

Using extremist entities in each sect as a platform from which to justify further violence and oppression is the next step. As factions separate even farther during the previous stages, those on the far fringes of each one will begin to lash out. Those that do not align to these radical subgroups are pressed to either affi rm their allegiance or be labeled as a dissenter and therefore a supporter of the opposite side.

In addition, some of those extremist organizations don't use traditional force of arms to accomplish their goals: they are able to, using the previously mentioned organization stage, weaponize government organizations to enforce their agenda. At this time, the protection of the targeted groups and other perceived opposition is required, not only by law enforcement entities, but also by the courts.

6. PREPARATION

Once each side has been polarized and the target group is dehumanized in the eyes of the majority that they are willing to take action, the extreme elements begin to make their moves. From the installation of special facilities to deal with the target group, to the armament of paramilitary and “special” teams, the build up to the executive step takes place. Displacement of those targeted is often initiated at this stage, moving people into places where they can be easily monitored and controlled. This is typically done in the open due to the feeling of security and imperviousness to the rule of law.

In most cases, this is the last stage at which real protection can be offered. Whether through foreign military or diplomatic intervention, this is the last chance for a true atrocity to be prevented. However, this is also dependent on the political will of the foreign nations involved and the status of the connection between the national leadership members.

7. EXTERMINATION

This is an instrumental step that makes genocide what it is, particularly in a legal sense. From Hitler to Stalin, Mao to Pol Pot, this is what separates a desperate situation from a national disaster. The deaths in numbers exacted by the aforementioned individuals is a key testament to the importance of the building blocks above to ensure that this phase meets their goals.

With government support, the military and the paramilitary forces previously created will deploy to carry out this step. At this point, the only means with which to curtail the violence is through immediate deployment of an overwhelming foreign joint task force, typically consisting of NATO or UN military components. By drawing the local armed forces away from the genocide and creating safe corridors for escape, the foundation for a return to stability can begin.

Any control that the government is given can all too easily be weaponized against the people. It is of vital importance that the people stay vigilant to not let social, political, religious, or cultural differences hand this power away. While the world has matured in its handling of such scenarios, it still remains in effect in some of its dark recesses. China and Myanmar still remain violators of these conventions.

It is not ultimately the sole responsibility of the people on the ground that commit the crimes. It truly is the concept of “Us versus Them” that is sown by the leadership, be it government or otherwise, that must be combated at fi rst sight. Unity is sometimes too strong a word, but a sense of mere kinship and cohabitation is all that is required to thwart those that would seek to weaponized our natural differences.

ISET GDP Forecast | Infl ation Hurts Georgia’s GDP Forecast, Recovery of Remittances & Real Exchange Rate Appreciation Make Positive Impact

BY DAVIT KESHELAVA AND YASYA BABYCH

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

HIGHLIGHTS

• Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021, which now stands at 29.9%. • The real GDP growth rate reached 9.9% year-on-year in July 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the fi rst seven months of 2021 amounted to 12.2%. • ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2021 stands at 19.7%. The second estimate for the fourth quarter growth forecast stands at 22.7%. • Based on July’s data, we expect annual growth in 2021 to be 16.7%. This number is most likely overestimated by the model at the current point in time. This is because the nature of the shock (a transitory lockdown event and diffi cult epidemiological situation) in the last three quarters of 2020 and correspondingly abnormally high GDP growth (base effect, increased external demand and higher commodity prices) in the second quarter of 2021, had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data. However, the accuracy of annual growth forecast is expected to improve signifi cantly once the third quarter data becomes available. • In addition, the National Bank of Georgia revised its expectation for real GDP growth up from 4% to 8.5% in 2020. According to the Monetary Policy Report, among the reasons behind the prediction’s upward revision are recovery in external demand (expected improvement in exports of goods, a slightly slower increase in imports of goods and the gradual recovery of tourism exports), fi scal stimulus and credit growth.

GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR IN Q2

The Georgian statistics offi ce, Geostat, has released its preliminary estimate of the GDP growth for the second quarter of 2021 (based on VAT taxpayers’ turnover data). The estimated growth in Q2 is 29.9%. According to Geostat, the following sectors had the largest positive contribution to the annual real GDP growth in this period: Arts, entertainment and recreation (133.6% growth yearly), accommodation and food service activities (75.5% yearly), information and communication (56.2% yearly), wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycle (53.9% yearly), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (49.8% yearly), transportation and storage (47% yearly), fi nancial and insurance activities (45.5% yearly), human health and social work activities (43.4% yearly), manufacturing (42.3% yearly); construction (36.9% yearly). While the agriculture, forestry and fi shing (-2.3% growth yearly), and education (-1.4% yearly) were the only sectors that shrunk in Q2.

Variables behind the Q3 and Q4 GDP growth forecast:

NATIONAL AND FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS IN COMMERCIAL BANKS

National Currency Demand Deposits – a 20.1% and 18.8% increase relative to the same month of the previous year, respectively. The National Currency Total Deposits increased by 16.9% yearon-year. The growth was relatively moderate in the case of Foreign Currency Deposits in commercial banks. As a result, deposit dollarization was reduced by 0.1 ppts to 60.2%. Indeed, an increase in National Currency Deposits-related variables had a positive contribution to the GDP growth projection.

MERCHANDISE TRADE

In July, Georgia’s exports increased by a 42.4% yearly. This trend was mainly driven by an increase in the export of ferro-alleys, natural grape wines, mineral waters and other fruits to Russia; alongside with the export/re-export of motor cars, telephones and cattle to Azerbaijan; alcoholic beverages and husks to Armenia; export of ferrous scrap, garment and semi-carbon steel to Turkey; export/reexport of motor cars, telephones and copper scrap to Ukraine, and re-export of copper and precious metals to China. In contrast, Georgian re-export of motor cars to UAE experienced annual decline. During this period, the import of goods increased by 17.2%, driven by a increase in import of petroleum and fuel products from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan (mostly due to a signifi cant annual increase of crude oil prices on the international marke - 73.8% in July); Among other positively affected imports were: carbon steel and Portland cement from Azerbaijan; carbon steel rolling mills and telephones from Ukraine; petroleum and fuel products from Bulgaria; motor cars from Germany; polymers and ceramic tiles from Iran; copper ores and concentrates from Serbia and Chile; computing machines and their blocks from Hong Kong; and immune serums and hormones from China. In contrast, Georgian imports of motor cars from USA; and copper ores and concentrates from Brazil. Consequently, the trade defi cit increased by 2% yearly, and amounted to 462.1 million USD. Overall, trade related variables still had a positive contribution to the GDP growth forecast.

MONEY INFLOW

After a signifi cant slowdown in money infl ows in the beginning of the previous year, remittances were on the path of recovery. In July, remittances increased by 10.4% yearly. The main contributors to this increase were Italy (by 18.8% YoY, contribution 2.8 ppts), Kazakhstan (by 251.5% YoY, contribution 1.9 ppts), USA (by 13.7% YoY, contribution 1.6 ppts), Germany (by 43.4% YoY, contribution 1.6 ppts), Israel (by 14.4% YoY, contribution 1.1 ppts), Kyrgyzstan (by 187.5% YoY, contribution 0.6 ppts), Azerbaijan (by 11.8% YoY, contribution 0.4 ppts), and Tajikistan (by 306.1% YoY, contribution 0.4 ppts). While Ukraine (by -24.9% YoY, contribution -1.3 ppts), Turkey (by -20.7% YoY, contribution -1.2 ppts), Russia (by -0.7% YoY, contribution -0.2 ppts), and Armenia (by -11% YoY, contribution -0.1 ppts) had negative contribution to the annual growth fi gure. Overall, the recovery of remittances fl ows made a positive contribution to the Q3 and Q4 growth forecast.

TOURISM INFLOW

Tourism arrivals and receipts only partially recovered in July of 2021 after a sharp decline in 2020. In July, the number of international visitors increased by 403.7% yearly (which is still only 23.6% of the same measure in 2019), while the growth in tourist numbers (visitors who spent 24 hours or more in Georgia) amounted to 473.9%. Overall, recovered numbers of visitors and tourists, along with a moderate increase in touristic spending has made a small positive contribution to the growth forecast.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

In addition, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Georgia amounted to 234.2 million USD in the second quarter of 2021 (the lowest infl ow since 2014), which is 2.6% higher than the adjusted data from Q2 2021. According to Geostat, FDI experienced slight increase in such sectors as health and social work, manufacturing, energy, hotels and restaurants, real estate, fi nance and, other sectors, while FDI decreased in all the other sectors (the largest decline was observable in agriculture, transports and communication, mining, and construction sectors). The recent trends in FDI are not taken into consideration in our model yet.

INFLATION

In July, the annual infl ation of consumer prices amounted to 11.9%, which is notably higher than the targeted 3%. Approximately 4.1 percentage points of CPI infl ation were related to higher food prices, which increased 14.1% annually (this was driven by the hike in food prices worldwide). Furthermore, increased oil prices made a notable positive contribution (2.1 ppts) to the annual infl ation measure. The latter trend is mostly a refl ection of signifi cantly increased oil prices on the global market (Euro Brent Spot Price (COP) increased by 73.8% yearly). Meanwhile, the measure of core infl ation amounted to 6.3%. Due to higher annual infl ation rate compared to the targeted 3% and risks of emerging infl ationary expectations, National Bank of Georgia (NBG) increased Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 0.5 ppt in August 2021 and maintained this measure on the same level (10%) in September 2021. This had a negative impact on the annual real GDP growth. Overall, CPI related variables had a slight negative contribution to the GDP forecast.

EXCHANGE RATE

In July, the Georgian lari real exchange rate appreciated in both yearly and monthly terms against all main trading currencies. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) appreciated by 2.4% and 5.3% monthly and yearly respectively. Appreciation of the REER is typically associated with domestic export goods losing competitiveness on the foreign markets, but it also translates into less pressure on the prices of imported goods. Overall, REER-related variables had a small positive contribution to the real GDP growth projections.

Our forecasting model is based on the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) methodology developed by the New Economic School, Moscow, Russia. We have constructed a dynamic model of the Georgian economy, which assumes that all economic variables, including GDP itself, are driven by a small number of factors that can be extracted from the data well before the GDP growth estimates are published. For each quarter, ISET-PI produces fi ve consecutive monthly forecasts (or “vintages”), which increase in precision as time passes. Our fi rst forecast (the 1st vintage) is available around fi ve months before the end of the quarter in question. The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the fi rst month of the next quarter.