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calgary’s demanding
demographics
cody stuart, Managing Editor
D
emographic forces will continue to play an important role in supporting demand for real estate in Calgary and nationwide, says a new report from one of Canada’s major banks. Entitled Canadian Housing: Demographically Dangerous, the report from CIBC Economics highlights the
growth in the number of Canadians aged 25 to 34 – the group that, according to CIBC, accounts for the vast majority of first-time homebuyers. In the report from CIBC Economics, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said fears of a softening housing market have been “highly exaggerated.” “[There are reports] saying that the market is going to soften in the next 10 years, but this is something that I don’t buy,” said Tal. “It’s based on Statistics
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mployment insurance beneficiaries in Alberta have decreased. According to Statistics Canada, EI beneficiaries in the province decreased in 11 of the 12 centres data is collected from. Year-over-year in Edmonton, the number of beneficiaries decreased by 37.8 per cent followed by Calgary with a year-over-year decrease of 33.9 per cent. “In June, there were 23,880 people in Alberta collecting EI benefits — adjusted for seasonality,” said Todd Hirsch, senior economist ATB Financial.
employment A3
A new report from CIBC highlights the growing number of Canadians aged 25 – 34 — the group that accounts for the most first-time buyers. damage,” stated the report. “At the same time, the growth in the number of Canadians in the age group 25-34, which accounts for the vast majority of first-time buyers, is projected to be much stronger. In other words, the group that is most likely to buy a house will grow faster in the coming decade.”
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*All statistics based on monthly data compiled by CREB® via MLS® activity.
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weakness, but that’s what the numbers are telling us.” Those numbers, according to Statistics Canada, say Canada should expect a decline in the population of those aged 25 and under, and also in the 45 to 54 age group, and an increase in the number of Canadians aged 55 and up. However, as explained in the CIBC report, what counts is not only a change in population in any given age group, but the level of housing activity amongst that age group. “While the projected 170,000 decline in the number of Canadians in the age group 20-24 in the coming decade is negative for housing demand, the low propensity to buy among this age group will limit the
Decrease in Albertan EI Beneficiaries
JUL10 AUG10 SEP10 OCT10 NOV10 DEC10 JAN11 FEB11 MAR11 APR11 MAY11 JUN11 JUL11 AUG11 SEP11 OCT11 NOV11 DEC11 JAN12 FEB12 MAR12 APR12 MAY12 JUN12 JUL12
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MLS® AVERAGE PRICE* JUL ‘10 – JUL ‘12
$478,528
managing editor
$489,271
cody stuart
Canada’s current projections, which I don’t think take into account the significant change in terms of immigration into the province, and even people coming from other provinces coming to Alberta.” As Tal points out, Statistics Canada’s current projections for Alberta’s housing market suggests that demand will rise by just 0.3 per cent a year over the next decade after increasing by 2.5 per cent per year in the previous 10 years. “This assumes that things will not change in Alberta, and I think that’s very naïve assumption. I think that you will see more movement from province to another – especially in Alberta,” said Tal. “So I don’t buy this
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In-migration, first-time buyers to support housing market says CIBC
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