AUGUST ISSUE
IN THIS ISSUE Anchorage and industry employment analysis for July 2020 Anchorage housing market numbers Top employers and featured occupations Unemployment data for Southcentral and our take
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All data referenced in this employment report is from the State of Alaska, Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development (www.laborstats. alaska.gov) and from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls. gov). Report compiled by Anchorage Economic Development Corp. If you are interested in learning more about this data or are interested in how AEDC can help you develop a report, call AEDC at 907.258.3700.
2020 VS. 2019 YEAR TO DATE: BY THE NUMBERS - 6. 8% Y T D
TOTAL JOBS 140,400 -10,200 GOV. JOBS Federal State Local
-800 N/C -300 -600
GOODS PRODUCING -1,100
OIL & GAS -300
MONTHLY SUMMARY
3
The monthly summary, as well as industry gains and losses, are based on comparisons between the same month in 2018 and 2019. Month-on-month (e.g. July 2019 to August 2019) comparisons tend to show consistent seasonal trends, while comparing years show longer-term impacts of policy and macroeconomic change.
July 2020 experienced a drop of 15,600 jobs compared to July 2019. All sectors lost jobs substantial numbers of jobs with Leisure & Hospitality being the sector with the highest job losses at 5,800. There were no other industry sectors that did not lose a significant number of jobs in July 2020. The number of single-family homes sold year-to-date has increased significantly. The average sale price has risen to new record highs. Singlefamily home listings deceased suggesting that the housing market is a seller’s market. The top employers are Providence Health and Services, and the Anchorage School District, even though there are a high number of job losses in those industry sectors. Unemployment is at 10.8% in July 2020, down from 12.0% in June 2020. This month’s data reflect the continuing impacts of COVID-19 related shutdown of the Anchorage economy. Revised jobs data for the first quarter of 2020 has just been released and show that the period of January through March saw an average 800 jobs lost in the quarter. This reflects a continuation of the 5-year recession into 2020 prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic impacts that now grip the city’s economy.
JULY LOSSES: AT A GLANCE CONSTRUCTION -500
MANUFACTURING -200
SERVICES PROVIDING -9,200
Oil & Gas -600
Food Services and Drinking Places -2,300
Construction –600
Other Services -500
Manufacturing -400
State Government -300
Wholesale Trade -100
State Education -300
Retail Trade -1,400
Local Government –700
Information -300
Local Education -400
Financial Activities -400
Professional & Business Services -1,200
Health Care – 1,400
Educational & Health Services –1,800
Leisure & Hospitality –5,800
Transportation/Warehouse/Utilities -1,500
Accommodation -1,500
FLAT HEALTH CARE -800
Federal Government N/C
THE BOTTOM LINE
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
Anchorage’s job market continues to deal with unprecedented
-3,700
sector took a significant hit with particularly large impacts to
job losses as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Every industry Leisure & Hospitality, Transportation, Health Care, Retail, and Oil & Gas.
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES -700
4
Anchorage Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present
ANCHORAGE EMPLOYMENT
165,000 160,000 155,000
Total Anchorage employment
150,000
was at 138,400 in July 2020,
145,000
showing a decrease of about
140,000
15,600 jobs compared to July
135,000
2019.
130,000 125,000 120,000
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
2015
sector lost 1,600 jobs or 11% in
July 2017
Aug
Sept
2018
Oct
Nov
2019
Dec
2020
Goods Producing Jobs Municipality of Anchorage 2015 ‐ Present
GOODS PRODUCING JOBS Anchorage’s goods producing
June
2016
17,000 16,000
July 2020 compared with July 2019.
15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000
Jan
Feb
March 2015
April 2016
May
June 2017
July 2018
Aug 2019
Sept
Oct 2020
Nov
Dec
5
Construction Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
10,000 9,500 9,000
At 8,300 jobs, Anchorage construction
8,500
employment shed 600 jobs between July
8,000
2019 and July 2020. This is down from
7,500
modest increases construction jobs in 2018
7,000
and 2019.
6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000
Jan
Feb
March
April
2015
May
2016
June 2017
July
Aug
2018
Sept
2019
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
Oil & Gas Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present 4,500
OIL & GAS EMPLOYMENT
4,000
Anchorage’s oil and gas sector shed 3,500
600 jobs between July 2019 and July 2020. This is a 24% decline.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Jan
Feb
March 2015
April
May 2016
June 2017
July 2018
Aug 2019
Sept
Oct 2020
Nov
Dec
6 Services Providing Jobs Municipality of Anchorage 2015 ‐ Present
SERVICES PROVIDING JOBS
150,000
Services providing industries shed
145,000
approximately 14,000 jobs between
140,000
July 2019 and July 2020. These
135,000
significant job losses are a result of complications and challenges due to
130,000
COVID-19.
125,000 120,000
Jan
Feb
March
April
2015
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES
June 2017
July 2018
Aug
Sept
2019
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
Professional & Business Services Municipality of Anchorage 2015 ‐ Present 21,000
Anchorage’s professional & business
20,500
services sector saw a decrease of
20,000
1,200 jobs between July 2019 and
19,500
July 2020.
May
2016
19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000
Jan
Feb
March 2015
May
2016
June 2017
July 2018
Aug
Sept
2019
2020
Health Care Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present
HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT Health care employment in is down for
April
21,500
the first time in years with a loss of 1,400 jobs between July 2019 and 2020.
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
Jan
Feb
March 2015
April 2016
May
June 2017
July 2018
Aug 2019
Sept
Oct 2020
Nov
Dec
7
NOW HIRING FEATURED OPENINGS BY OCCUPATION SOURCE: JOBSEQ®
Retail Salespersons TOTAL ADS: 454
Registered Nurses
Average annual: $27,774
TOTAL ADS: 320
Average annual: $72,472
Stockers & Order Fillers TOTAL ADS: 290
Average annual: $31,200
TOP EMPLOYERS TOP EMPLOYERS BY TOTAL ADS JULY 2020 SOURCE: JOBSEQ®
Company
Total Ads
Providence Health and Services 317 The University of Alaska 182 Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium 173 Anchorage School District 143 Alaska Teacher Placement 123 Humana 91 Carrs 85 Lowes 84 State of Alaska 78 Municipality of Anchorage 69
For more employment insights, don’t miss our Real-Time Jobs report, available quarterly at aedcweb.com. Data source: JobsEQ
8 Anchorage Single Family Home Listings Monthly Totals 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service
1,400 1,200 1,000
638
800 600 400 200 ‐
2011
2012
January
2013 February
2014
2015
March
2016 April
2017
2018
May
2019 June
2020 July
ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME LISTINGS YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON Anchorage’s single-family home listings stood at 638 as of July 2020, a decrease of 271 from 909 listings in July 2019.
Anchorage Single Family Home Monthly Unit Sales Monthly 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service
450
388
400
January February
350
March
300
April
250
May June
200
July
150
August
100
September
50 ‐
October 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME MONTHLY UNIT SALES YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON Anchorage’s single-family home monthly unit sales stood at 388 in June 2020, which is up 78 from July 2019 at 310 sales.
November December
9 Anchorage Single Family Home Average Sale Price YTD 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 $400,000 $390,000 $380,000 $370,000 $360,000 $350,000 $340,000 $330,000 $320,000 $310,000 $300,000 $290,000
Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service
$358,634
$324,114
2011
$332,689
2012
$368,037
$387,497
$362,836
$362,950
2016
2017
$369,195
$364,588
$341,687
2013
2014
2015
2018
2019
2020
ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME AVERAGE SALES PRICE YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON The average price of a single-family home in Anchorage dropped to $350,926 in November 2019 from $365,041 in November 2018.
Anchorage Single Family Homes Total Unit Sales YTD 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service
1,800
1,653
1,600 1,400
1,277
1,405
1,546
1,687
1,584
1,544
1,533
1,475
2016
2017
2018
2019
1,588
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 ‐
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES TOTAL UNIT SALES YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON The number of single-family home unit sales year-to-date increased in July 2020 to 1,586, up 211 units sold compared to the period in 2019, showing a significant increase in home sales.
2020
10
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA UNEMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS (2020, YTD) TAKEAWAY
Anchorage’s unemployment rate in July was 10.8%, down 1.2% compared to June 2020. To date there are 15,750 unemployed individuals compared to 7,131 in July of 2019. Anchorage’s labor force stands at 146,014 (employment + unemployment = labor force). Statewide, the Alaska Department of Labor noted over 38,096 unemployed individuals for the month of July 2020 compared to 19,960 in July 2019. Anchorage continues to show the lowest unemployment numbers in the southcentral region with the Kenai Peninsula Borough coming in at 11.9% unemployment, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough at 11.8% unemployment and the State of Alaska as a whole at 10.8% unemployment for the beginning of July 2020.
MAY REVISED
JUNE REVISED
JULY PRELIMINARY
MUNCIPALITY OF ANCHORAGE Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate
142,856 125,242 17,614 12.3%
148,733 130,926 17,807 12.0%
MAT-SU BOROUGH Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate
45,046 39,191 5,855 13.0%
47,200 41,015 6,185 13.1%
46,302 40,826 5,476 11.8%
46,249 41,337 4,913 10.6%
47,105 43,522 3,584 7.6
(856) (2,185) 1,329 3.0%
KENAI PENINSULA BOROUGH Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate
25,378 21,807 3,571 14.1%
26,860 23,251 3,609 13.4%
26,985 23,761 3,224 11.9%
25,527 22,649 2,878 11.3%
26,068 24,581 1,916 7.3%
(542) (1,932) 962 3.9%
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate
213,280 186,240 27,040 12.7%
222,793 195,192 27,601 12.4%
219,301 194,851 24,450 11.1%
216,856 195,937 20,919 9.6%
220,392 207,225 13,166 6.0%
(3,535) (11,288) 7,753 3.7%
STATE OF ALASKA Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate
334,106 292,153 41,953 12.6%
350,803 307,582 43,221 12.3%
351,838 313,742 38,096 10.8%
146,014 130,364 15,750 10.8%
20 YTD AVERAGE
19 YTD AVERAGE
145,080 131,952 13,129 9.0%
147,218 139,551 7,667 5.2%
341,455 308,400 33,055 9.7%
352,107 328,782 23,325 6.6%
20 VS 19 YTD (2,137) (7,599) 5,462 3.8%
(10,652) (20,382) 9,730 3.1%
ALASKA UNEMPLOYMENT, JULY 2020 Unemployment Rates, Alaska and U.S.
Area Unemployment Rates
January 2013 to July 2020
Not seasonally adjusted1 Rate
14%
07/20
10% 8%
Alaska
6%
U.S.
4%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section; and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wage and Salary Employment Percent change from same month the previous year Actual
3.0%
Es�mated
1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% -7.0% -9.0% -11.0% -13.0% -15.0%
06/20
07/19
Anchorage/Mat-Su Region Anchorage, Municipality Matanuska-Susitna Borough
11.0 10.8 11.8
12.2 12.0 13.1
5.3 4.9 6.6
Gulf Coast Region Kenai Peninsula Borough Kodiak Island Borough Valdez-Cordova Census Area
10.7 11.9 8.0 7.8
12.5 13.4 10.3 10.3
5.1 5.5 4.0 4.5
Interior Region Denali Borough Fairbanks North Star Borough Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area
9.3 9.4 8.9 9.1 15.8
10.8 12.2 10.5 10.8 16.3
5.5 3.5 4.9 8.2 13.7
Northern Region Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough
13.7 15.4 8.3 16.8
15.0 16.1 9.9 18.8
11.6 12.6 7.0 15.4
Southeast Region Haines Borough Hoonah-Angoon Census Area Juneau, City and Borough Ketchikan Gateway Borough Petersburg Borough Prince of Wales-Hyder CA Sitka, City and Borough Skagway, Municipality Wrangell, City and Borough Yakutat, City and Borough
11.3 15.9 14.5 10.2 12.7 9.3 13.3 8.9 19.1 10.8 10.8
13.2 20.1 16.7 11.7 14.5 13.6 14.1 11.8 18.7 12.9 12.9
4.7 4.7 6.8 3.9 4.8 6.1 9.5 3.4 2.7 6.2 5.1
Southwest Region Aleutians East Borough Aleutians West Census Area Bethel Census Area Bristol Bay Borough Dillingham Census Area Kusilvak Census Area Lake and Peninsula Borough
10.8 3.1 4.1 16.4 2.8 7.6 25.3 9.5
13.5 5.6 9.5 15.8 6.9 10.1 24.7 12.3
8.8 1.7 2.7 13.9 1.7 6.0 22.9 7.2
Seasonally adjusted
12%
2%
P
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section P = Preliminary. As more information becomes available, data are revised every month for the previous month and again at the end of every calendar year.
Regional Employment
Note: The official definition of unemployment excludes anyone who has not actively attempted to find work in the four-week period up to and including the week that includes the 12th of the reference month.
July 2020 compared to July 2019
Unemployment rates that are not seasonally adjusted should not be compared with those that are.
1
Anchorage/ Mat-Su Region
-17,400 -4,200 -7,800
Interior Region Southeast Region
-5,500
Gulf Coast Region -2,400 -2,100
Northern Region Southwest Region
Regional totals may not sum to statewide total due to rounding and independent estimation methods. Source: Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Data viaAlaska the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development Analysis Section
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section; and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics