20111128_GreenGrowthPlanning

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Green Growth Planning GGGI Country Programs


Table of Contents Introduction

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Country Summaries Brazil

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Cambodia

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Ethiopia

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Indonesia

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Kazakhstan

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Thailand

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United Arab Emirates

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Conclusion

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Global Green Growth Institute


GGGI The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) is dedicated to pioneering and diffusing a new paradigm of economic growth: green growth. Green Growth integrates key aspects of economic performance, such as poverty reduction, job creation and social inclusion, with those of environmental performance, such as mitigation of climate change and biodiversity loss and security of access to clean water and energy. The Institute mobilizes world-class technical support and builds local capacity for the design and implementation of green growth strategies. It helps countries create action-oriented policy options and institutions tailored to their respective economic circumstances and constraints.

Green Growth Planning GGGI supports emerging and developing countries that seek to develop rigorous green growth economic development strategies. It does so by placing the best available analytical tools at their disposal, building their institutional capacity to apply these tools independently, and engaging them in an international process of mutual learning with other countries on a similar journey. It also supports the implementation of green growth plans by advising on potential institutional structures and policies as well as by engaging private investors and public donors in their successful execution. In order to stimulate a South-South dynamic of collective learning and refinement of green growth plan (GGP) methodology, the Institute’s country program research series is an open architecture knowledge platform designed to facilitate the exchange of experience and knowledge by policymakers and experts engaged in GGP development around the world, whether or not such plans have been directly supported by GGGI. The overall aim is to facilitate a virtuous circle of experimentation and evidence-based learning by which developing and emerging countries accelerate the creation and implementation of a new approach to economic development that leapfrogs the resource-intensive and environmentally unsustainable strategy pursued by advanced countries in an earlier era. GGGI provides support for the development of green growth plans (GGPs) when it receives a high-level request from a developing or emerging market government. It seeks to help governments meet the interrelated imperatives of economic development and environmental sustainability. GGGI’s approach is particularly suited to developing countries

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because it starts from the imperatives of broad-based progress in living standards and growth. The precise scope of work for a GGP in each country depends on the starting conditions and specific challenges. At the most general level of GGP design, GGGI conducts a comprehensive diagnosis of the compatibility of a country’s development objectives with its green growth potential. The diagnosis involves assessing sector by sector opportunities as well as the potential in aligning development needs with required actions to avoid irreversible impacts of climate change. Based on the result of the diagnosis, GGGI suggests a vision for the country on green growth compatible with its own development aspirations. It refines the policy options available for the GGP and sketches the implications for implementation in the context of the broader green growth strategy. More specifically, GGGI seeks to identify opportunities for national alignment around priority sectors and supports the preparation of a corresponding green growth implementation roadmap. Currently, GGGI is working on GGPs in the following countries: Brazil, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, the Institute is currently in talks to proceed with GGPs or related projects in a number of other countries, including Mongolia and Vietnam.

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Brazil Background Brazil is one of the five largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter countries in the world, due in large part to deforestation emissions. Although the country has made great progress in reducing deforestation by more than 70 percent in the last five years and it has historically had one of the cleanest electricity generation matrices in the world, emissions from other sectors such as agriculture, steel and transportation are expected to become significant given the accelerated economic growth of the country and its role as a leading global food exporter. Recent accelerated economic growth and job creation, coupled with new social security safety nets, have significantly helped reduce poverty, creating a fast growing lower middle class eager to gain access to higher consumption patterns. However, income distribution in Brazil remains one of the most unequal in the world. In fact, some regions - particularly in the Amazonian North and in the semi-arid Northeast - are dependent on redistribution of resources from the federal government for their wellbeing. The Brazilian government is committed to developing and implementing a low-carbon green growth plan. The government, in the context of the pledges registered in the Copenhagen Accord, has pledged to reduce GHG emissions from 36 to 39 percent by 2020. The country also committed to creating both the Amazon Fund to channel philanthropic donations to reduce deforestation, and the National Climate Change Fund, annually allocating US $500 million from federal government funding to the Funds. To assist Brazil to these ends, GGGI’s project began in 2010 and was conducted in close cooperation with the Brazilian government. The different goals of the project, designing sector GHG abatement plans, identifying key barriers to their implementation and potential actions to overcome them to ensure their success, were co-developed with senior officials in the ministry. In order to achieve these goals, the team worked closely with a variety of government agencies, including the Ministries of Finance, Environment, Industry and Trade, and Agriculture as well as key research agencies such as the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA). The first phase of the project focused on forestry, agriculture, steel, and electric power sectors as these were prioritized by the Brazilian government for sectoral planning in 2010. Objectives The key objectives were to support low-carbon sector diagnostics in the forestry, agriculture,

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steel and electricity sectors. Main activities and outputs GGGI’s main activities in Brazil involved working with its partners to produce GHG abatement policies in the four key sectors described above, which was completed in early 2011. GGGI’s analysis included very specific options to reduce Brazil’s GHG emissions as well as “business as usual”(BAU) analysis that described potential trajectories for unmitigated emissions. The key findings of GGGI’s analysis were: Forestry: The forest sector has been the largest emitter in Brazil, with 54 percent of all GHG emissions, or an estimated 1200 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2005. Just as a measure of its importance, if this sector were excluded from the overall picture, GHG emissions per capita in 2005 would have fallen from 12 to 5 tons of CO2e thereby placing Brazil amongst those countries with low to moderate emissions. While this picture is changing as Brazil successfully implements initiatives to reduce deforestation, the forest sector will still be responsible for a significant part of GHG emissions in the base case scenario. As the Brazilian command and control piece of the overall REDD strategy has been very successful over the last five years, GGGI’s efforts were focused on offering assistance regarding how to ensure sustainable development in the Amazon region, given that currently there are over 25 million people living in the area. With the right policies in place to unlock the region’s underlying potential, GGGI found that the value chains analyzed have the potential to create approximately 450 thousand new individual direct jobs as well as indirect employment for an additional 380 thousand people in sustainable activities. Furthermore, with the right incentives, these chains could generate around US $9 billion in revenues for the regional economy, and capture up to ~1.3 GtCO2e of emissions through newly reforested areas in the next 20 years. Chains that were identified as adding value to standing forests and having significant job creation potential are Brazil nuts and acai, local forest fruits that already have sizeable markets and large growth potential. In total, these value chains could generate hundreds of thousands of jobs if well cultivated. The analysis also found that there is significant potential in exploring value chains based on commercial reforestation in degraded areas for such products as pulp and paper, wood panels, pellets for energy generation, and teak. Additionally, palm oil and cocoa bean production are activities in which the Amazon region possesses distinctive advantages, mainly due to highly favorable climate conditions. Most importantly, unlocking the potential of the value chains analyzed would require cross-cutting

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policies designed to address common challenges. Three inter-related themes in particular were identified: improving technical assistance to producers, easier access to credit, and more clarity on reforestation regulations. Agriculture: Emissions from the agriculture sector are projected to grow from 485 million metric ton carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2005 and reach up to approximately 600 MtCO2e by 2030. However, the analysis carried out by GGGI indicated that Brazil has the opportunity to significantly mitigate GHG emissions from its agriculture sector. Succeeding in this task will nevertheless depend on the pace and level at which the country chooses to adopt new practices in what is a very fragmented and low technology sector. GGGI identified 13 potential abatement levers. Aiming to guarantee that the initial list would be exhaustive enough, interviews with specialists and problem solving with the Brazilian government were conducted, including the co-sponsoring of EMBRAPA’s international low carbon cattle ranching forum where researchers from leading global institutions collaborated in advancing this topic. GGGI found that the key areas for GHG abatement in the agriculture sector are: livestock abatement levers, such as grassland management, bovine enteric emissions management, integrated land-use systems, reducing tillage practices before planting, reducing the depth of flooded rice fields, crop nutrient management, biological nitrogen fixation, improving agronomic practices, and degraded land restoration. In early 2011, the Brazilian government has announced its official national low carbon agriculture plan, which is a great example of combining cutting edge research technology, inclusive stakeholder involvement and bold policy support. Steel: Brazil is one of the ten largest steel producers in the world and one of the lowest cost producers, due to ready access to high quality iron ore and integrated logistics. As a developing economy with an expanding middle class, growing average salaries, and large investments planned to boost the country’s infrastructure, steel demand has grown 36 percent faster than GDP in Brazil in the last 20 years. GGGI analysis indicated that initiatives to abate GHG emissions in the Brazilian steel sector can be classified in five main categories: implementation of energy efficiency measures; use of low carbon content and/or more efficient raw materials; promotion of changes in the steel production process; and increase in the production of high strength steel products. Electric Power: Brazil is the ninth largest electric power consumer in the world and has one of the cleanest energy matrices, with 85 percent of its power generation coming from renewable sources (mostly hydroelectric power plants). Despite the heavy use of hydroelectric plants, fossil fuel fired plants play an important role in the Brazilian power

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matrix. Such plants function to ensure system reliability and work as “reserve energy” during low rain regimes. Although responsible for only a small portion of power generated in Brazil, fossil fuel fired plants represent over half of the total emissions in the sector. The two main initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions from the electric sector identified by the study were the replacement of projected fossil fuel fired power plants by renewable sources, and the mitigation of emissions from existing fossil fuels power plants. The replacement of all projected natural gas, coal, and fuel oil fossil fuel fired power plants by wind, small hydros and biomass would reduce emissions in 2030 by approximately 55 MtCO2e. This potential substitution in the power sector has a negative cost, since small hydro, wind and biomass producing plants currently have lower costs than those for coal or natural gas. The economics may become even more favorable as wind energy technology develops, but on the other hand natural gas prices may also decrease in the future due to an increase in supply. However, replacing fossil fuel plants with renewable ones decreases overall system reliability since most of the Brazilian matrix is already renewable, thus suffering from natural fluctuations. GGGI has addressed this fact with a preliminary analysis of the added cost of having extra renewable capacity to create a buffer or having natural gas stand-by plants. Even in this case, the migration to a predominantly renewable electric matrix appears to be cost competitive, although detailed research and analysis is still required. Policy Implications Brazil is a major emerging economy with a rapid economic growth rate. GGGI and its partners have suggested pragmatic and relatively low-cost greenhouse gas abatement strategies. If incorporated, Brazil could drastically reduce its GHG emissions. And given Brazil’s past history of rain forest degradation, significantly reducing emissions will send a powerful message to the region and the world that environmentally sustainable economic expansion is feasible and desirable. As it currently stands, the adoption of Brazil’s deforestation policies (REDD), the Action Plan to Prevent and Curb Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAM), represent a major turning point in environmental policy in the country with unprecedented actions of monitoring, law enforcement, and spatial planning in the region. Brazil is clearly on the steady path to green growth and has become a major player in the realm of environmental sustainability.

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Cambodia Background GGGI signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Royal Government of Cambodia with the intention of developing National Green Growth Master Plan (NGGMP) to assist Cambodia in achieving continued rapid economic development while preserving environmental integrity. Cambodia’s economy has experienced significant economic expansion in recent years; however, this growth has been imbalanced and largely occurred in industrial sectors, such as construction, textiles, agriculture and tourism. This has placed a significant burden on the country’s natural environment and a heavy strain on its natural resources. Furthermore, the benefits of this growth have gone disproportionately to Cambodia’s urban population while a large majority of the people continues to live in rural areas, often at subsistence levels. In order to address these disparities and alleviate the strain placed on the environment and natural resources, the Cambodian government has committed to pursue a more sustainable model of growth. To that end, the government worked with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) to draw up a National Green Growth Roadmap, which serves as a broad foundational structure to integrate existing ideas and initiatives for green growth into the country’s economic development strategy. Drawing upon the fundamentals of the Roadmap, GGGI is assisting the Cambodian Green Growth Secretariat and the Ministry of Environment in establishing a National Committee on Green Growth (NCGG) to help oversee and implement the National Green Growth Master Plan. In developing the NGGMP, GGGI is partnering with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), the Korea Legislative Research Institute (KLRI), UNESCAP, Kwangwoon and Cheju Halla Universities in South Korea, and EN3, an environmental engineering company.

Establishment/ Operation of NCGG

Capacity Building

GGGI Regional Hub

Green Growth Green Growth GreenGrowth Growth Green Green Growth Green Growth Green Growth for for for for for for CAMBODIA CAMBODIA CAMBODIA CAMBODIA CAMBODIA CAMBODIA

Green Growth Planning GGGI Country Programs

Green Growth Master Plan

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The NGGMP focuses on five major areas: economic analysis, institutional analysis, sustainable forestry, waste management, and green job creation. Objectives GGGI’s fundamental, over-arching objective is to help Cambodia meet its goals of developing the national economy, spuring job creation, and identifying new opportunities for economic growth. As such, GGGI’s country program for Cambodia includes both a top-down and bottom-up approach. The top-down dimension entails performing economic and institutional analysis, including economic analysis of the aforementioned National Green Growth Master Plan, which is to be integrated with Cambodia’s broader economic strategy, and the establishment of the National Committee on Green Growth, which is tasked with shepherding and supervising the implementation of the master plan. The top-down aspect also encompasses the establishing of a green growth legal framework in order to institutionalize green growth strategies, tailoring specific policies designed to help Cambodia achieve its Millennium Development Goals and the government’s own Updated National Strategic Development Plan, and raising awareness of green growth amongst the population in general. The bottom-up efforts are more local and sectoral, although still, of course, within the scope of the broader GGMP. These include scoping, analyzing, and implementing plans in sustainable, forestry, small and medium-sized business promotion, green job creation, and waste management. Work on the NGGMP began in September 2011 and is being developed by GGGI and the Cambodian Green Growth Secretariat. Main Activities and Outputs Having begun in late 2011, the project is in the scoping and set - up stage. This includes analysis and research on Cambodia’s current situation regarding existing laws, regulations and institutions for the purpose of identifying potential areas of reform. The sectoral activities are also in the scoping phase. There have been multiple consultative and capacity building workshops, and in late 2011 a detailed work plan was submitted. Policy Implications Implementation of the NGGMP will enable a policy transformation that will shift Cambodia’s current development pathway onto a more environmental and climate sustainable green growth trajectory. It will also likely boost economic growth significantly and allocate both human and natural resources in more efficient and effective ways. In addition, Cambodia’s legal and regulatory systems will be altered to be adaptive and receptive to future

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environmental and economic events and developments. Moreover, it is hoped that Cambodia can serve as a model in the region and its example can be replicated in other emerging economies in the region. Future plans/next steps: The 5 year plan will progressively develop as time goes on. In 2012, it is expected that the NCGG will be established, the NGGMP will be formulated and announced, sectoral agenda will be identified and analyzed, and policy and legal suggestions will be made regarding waste management, forestry, and green job creation.

Ethiopia Background In June 2010, GGGI began a project in Ethiopia with the aim to support the Ethiopian government in designing a green growth strategy. GGGI has completed the first phase of green growth planning and is tentatively scheduled to begin a second phase. The Institute has also supported a scoping project in the field of Household Irrigation Technology (HIT). Ethiopia is a country with significant growth prospects. It is the largest Eastern African country with 85 million inhabitants, a 3.2 percent growth rate in population per year, and 1.1 million square kilometers of land. The population is young, growing, and diverse, with a median age of 17 years, multi-ethnic and low but growing levels of urbanization (currently standing at 17 percent). The country has a diverse and challenging geography (landlocked, mountainous, wide variety of climate zones and soil conditions) with nine semi-autonomous regional states in a federal system of governance. In this context, the Ethiopian government has initiated the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), an ambitious development plan that lays out aggressive growth, development and industrialization targets up to the year 2015. It reflects the government’s ambition to drive the country to middle income status by 2025 starting from a GDP per capita of just 200 U.S. dollars. Green Growth is a core aspect of the GTP. It represents a new way of developing, involving mitigating risks and creating a resilient growth profile, exploiting innovation opportunities based on 21st century production platforms, and creating a competitive advantage out of a

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focus on sustainable resource productivity growth. It is based on three complementary objectives, which, in the definition of the Ethiopian government, constitute a Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) plan: Fostering economic development and growth Ensuring mitigation of future emissions, ie transition to a lowcarbon economy Supporting adaptation to climate changes GGGI has partnered with the Ethiopian government, the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI), and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to draw up a comprehensive green growth plan that is designed to reinforce and provide some of the basis for the GTP. Objectives GGGI’s objective in Ethiopia is to identify, prioritize, and evaluate the opportunities for green growth in the county in the context and parameters of the government’s GTP. More specifically, GGGI has been performing sectoral work in agriculture, forestry, and power and performing detailed analysis to identify green growth opportunities. As time goes on, GGGI will drill down deeper into each sector and perform subsector analysis as well as broaden the sectoral scope to include transport, industry, and green cities. Main activities and outputs The work carried out in 2011 builds on a number of initiatives started in 2009 and 2010 by GGGI and by the Gates Foundation on agricultural transformation and water. It naturally also builds on the analysis carried out by the Government of Ethiopia in the context of the Growth and Transformation Plan. GGGI’s green growth work in Ethiopia started with in collaboration with EDRI, the Ethiopian Development Research Institute, during the course of 2010. This first phase of work developed a first assessment of the country’s emissions, identified GHG abatement opportunities in highpotential sectors (agriculture, forestry and power), made a high-level assessment of the

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abatement levers (only cost and GHG abatement potential) and developed a first road map for designing a comprehensive green growth strategy. The key outcomes of the work were the establishment of a first baseline and a preliminary set of green growth initiatives revolving around hydropower and agriculture, the development of a preliminary position for the Cancun COP-16, and the consequent formation of a cross-Ministerial Steering Committee. In more specific terms, GGGI’s project carried out detailed and comprehensive analysis of opportunities for green growth in agriculture, forestry and power and can be summarized as follows: Agriculture: Agriculture will continue to play an important role in Ethiopia’s economic development. To support an expected population growth of 2 to 3 percent per year between 2008 and 2030 and Ethiopia’s aspiration to achieve middle income status by 2025, this sector will have to grow its GDP contribution by 10 percent per year even assuming some structural change in the economy. This means that the traditional development path would deliver targeted economic growth but dramatically increase land requirements and emissions. Therefore some of the potential initiatives identified by GGGI analysis to increase the productivity and sustainability of the agricultural sector include: Increase farmland productivity Introduce lower emitting techniques for agriculture Increase animal productivity and introduce grazing land management and pasture improvement practices Shift animal mix toward smaller and lower emitting animals Manure management Draft power mechanization Forestry: Ethiopia’s forests serve as the main source of fuel wood and it provides economic value in a range of ways. Some of the initiatives proposed to efficiently manage the forest sector include: Manage forests, reforest degraded

land

and

afforest marginal land

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Decrease the demand for fuel wood Reduce the pressure on forests by increasing farmland productivity Power: Power is a fundamental enabler of modern economic activity, from operating cities to pumping water for irrigation purposes. If not adequately scaled to support economic development, it also risks becoming a fundamental bottleneck to growth. To support economic growth at the pace that the government aspires to, Ethiopia will have to expand its power supply at a rate of 14 percent per year, particularly since power use is projected to rise more quickly than GDP as Ethiopia industrializes and moves toward middle-income status. Some of the initiatives proposed for the power sector include: Leverage partial risk and credit guarantees to mobilize financing in the short term Increase revenues by reassessing optimal market structure where possible Fully leverage the regional low-carbon opportunity Mobilize resources in the short term to inject capacity into the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo) Based on the high-level recommendations developed during this first phase of the green growth project for Ethiopia, GGGI further refined the identified programs by (a) detailing the required actions (e.g., programs, pilots, policy changes, research), (b) identifying the necessary resources (human, technical and financial) and (c) defining the roles and responsibilities of the relevant stakeholders. GGGI’s contribution to support these additional steps will be equally critical in preparing the green growth implementation roadmap for Ethiopia in any potential subsequent phases. The analysis included: Identification and detailed analysis of the different technical opportunities (GHG abatement levers) sector by sector The pricing of each lever per ton of carbon abated and the overall capital investment required Prioritization of each lever in the context of Ethiopia’s development objectives and of its GTP Initial analysis of the implementation challenges for the prioritized levers The key results of the analysis indicate that Ethiopia has a significant opportunity to meet its ambitious growth aspirations while also reducing GHG emissions. In sum, the work carried out by GGGI during 2011 has contributed to advancing the Ethiopian government’s green growth agenda on many fronts:

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Fostering a cross-ministerial process to steer the CRGE Strategy. GGGI has helped create a cross-ministerial coordination mechanism through the Ministerial Steering Committee (MSC), which is the basis for the institutional set-up for implementation. The MSC has enabled alignment across ministries, buy-in for the fact base at the highest level, and accountability for progress. Assembling critical technical resources from relevant ministries. This work was based on a highly participative and inclusive approach involving all the relevant ministries. A technical committee (TC) was created, led by the EPA, and responsible for its day to day progress. In addition, a set of sub-technical committee groups (STCs) was assembled and was responsible for developing the sectoral green economy strategies. In our view, this represents a best practice example in knowledge transfer and capability building. In a matter of two months the seven STCs, with members from multiple ministries (40 to 50 people in total), were assembled. Substantial expertise on emissions data, lever evaluation, and planning was transferred by the GGGI team to the STC members. Forming the next generation of local ‘green economy’ leaders. Several members of the STCs are now in a position to carry out complex analysis independently or with minimal support from the GGGI team, suggesting initial success in the transfer of knowledge. Creating strong local ownership. The Cabinet level MSC represents a coordinating body that has allowed alignment across ministries, buy-in for the fact base at the highest level, and accountability for progress. This body has been meeting monthly to discuss strategic direction. By establishing a direct link between the chair of the STC and their respective state minister represented in the MSC, the project has been able to anchor the CRGE initiative at the highest level within the involved ministries. Assembled a solid fact-base at the core of the CRGE Strategy. GGGI helped deliver a fully Ethiopian owned fact base that can become the foundation of the growth and transformation plan and its financing through climate finance and international investors interested in green growth assets. The data is now owned by a designated officer at EDRI who has been trained in handling the models. Providing a basis for future investments/program support of CRGE. GGGI’s work has identified real opportunities for investment and a chance to secure early funding and finance for the implementation of critical initiatives.

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Supporting the approval of the CRGE Strategy. GGGI has supported the preparation and discussion of CRGE strategy with key stakeholders. The approval of this strategy by the Cabinet stands as a crucial milestone which will lay the foundations for the successful implementation of the CRGE strategy. Policy Implications If successfully implemented, green growth in Ethiopia will have profound impacts and implications in the context of its ambitious growth plans. In order to achieve this, strong commitment is required from the government and other non-governmental actors. In the next few months the Government of Ethiopia, supported by GGGI and other institutions, will focus on: Plan of action: The country intends to deliver a practical, implementable plan to achieve its GTP objectives and longer term ambitions. It is critical that those targets are translated into actionable programs. The CRGE Plan can help by articulating specific opportunities and converting them into practical programs. A subset of fundable initiatives: Foreign direct investment will be required to deliver the infrastructure and capital stock Ethiopia needs to increase the productivity of its labor force and achieve the growth it wants. The CRGE Plan can help by focusing on specific opportunities which could attract international investors and can articulate the business case and financial model that could support international (as well as domestic) investment. Finance: Finally, the CRGE Plan will help Ethiopia attract short - and long-term financiers interested in the risk and returns profile offered by a country leap-frogging many of the mistakes of past experiences of ‘brown’ growth and following an alternative, low carbon, sustainable, resource productive route to growth. GGGI hopes to work on phase two of the Ethiopia project and will continue its sectoral work in agriculture, forestry and power but will also expand to the following sectors: green cities, transport, and industry.

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Indonesia Background GGGI began work in Indonesia in 2010 supporting green growth policies in the province of East Kalimantan. East Kalimantan has the highest GDP per capita of any province in Indonesia, and its economy reached a sizeable GDP of US $11.3 billion in 2008. Since 2000, the province’s poverty rate has fallen by 10 percent per year while per capita consumption has risen by 12 percent per year. Although the province has made impressive gains in living standards, 9 percent of the population still earns less than US $25 per month, the provincial poverty level. Decentralization has increased governmental accountability and put pressure on district heads (bupatis) and the Governor to extend economic opportunity and increase incomes. Economic development has been largely driven by the exploitation of the province’s abundant natural resources. Since 1950, East Kalimantan has reduced its forest cover by 35 percent (6.8 million hectares). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow very rapidly, with annual emissions increasing 32 percent by 2030 from their 2010 levels. In early 2010, Governor Awang Faroek Ishak launched the Kaltim Green policy, setting ambitious targets for emission reductions. The Provincial Climate Change Office (DDPI) was subsequently created to coordinate climate change related activities in the province. The DDPI provided a boost to the prospects of making green growth a reality in East Kalimantan as well as clarity as to the province’s priorities. GGGI support was later expanded, during 2011, to Central Kalimantan. Central Kalimantan has the seventh highest GDP per capita among Indonesia’s provinces and has achieved an annual GDP growth of 5.8 percent since 2004 with a high employment rate of 95 percent. This growth is distributed across the 14 districts of Central Kalimantan, each of which has achieved at least 5 percent annual growth. Central Kalimantan has the third most equitable distribution of income in Indonesia and relatively low poverty rates. It has set an ambitious target of 7.5 percent annual economic growth to 2020. If achieved, this would mean an increase in GDP per capita from IDR 8.1 million (~US $1000) in 2010 to IDR 13 million (~US $1600) in 2020. As in East Kalimantan, development has also been largely driven by the exploitation of the province’s abundant natural resources as GDP growth originates from palm oil and mining. Since 2000, Central Kalimantan has reduced its forest cover by 100,000 hectares per year. In 2011, Central Kalimantan was selected by the President as the pilot province for REDD+ activities in Indonesia and is therefore an area of high interest for REDD+ stakeholders. The province was selected based on its rich natural resources, in particular its significant peatland

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areas, but also because it faces planned deforestation and degradation projects that will significantly increase Indonesia’s emission levels. The decision to carry out GGGI’s work in Indonesia at the provincial level was made for a number of reasons. First, Indonesia’s National Climate Change Council (DNPI) wants to promote green growth activities at the provincial level where it can have the most on - the ground impact as well as act as a testing ground for new ideas and approaches. Secondly, operating at the provincial level also nicely balances scale and complexity - provinces are large enough to have a significant impact, yet small enough to isolate a limited set of issues. Stakeholders, policy measures, and institutional levers have been analyzed from the perspective of the province. This perspective helps to identify the things that can be directly controlled from the provincial capitals and those that require decisions to be made at other levels of government. In East Kalimantan, GGGI partnered with the DDPI, the provincial government, Mulawarman University, the World Wildlife Fund, and the Nature Conservancy. In Central Kalimantan, GGGI worked with the provincial government, local universities, and other stakeholders including Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership and the US Forest Service. Objectives In East Kalimantan, GGGI placed its focus on supporting policy formulation, strategy and climate-change related initiatives based on the Province’s low-carbon growth strategy. Specifically, this includes supporting REDD readiness activities, the development of green growth policies, and institution building. Sectoral analysis in East Kalimantan includes agriculture, palm oil, forestry, coal, and oil and gas. These sectors were identified as the priority focus for improving the province’s economic development while also reducing emissions and improving perspectives for green growth. These five sectors are responsible for more than 75 percent of East Kalimantan’s GDP, but also 89 percent of emissions and 41 percent of formal employment. In addition, pilot projects have been scoped. The Government of East Kalimantan, the National Council on Climate Change (DNPI), and GGGI prioritized three programs for which further detailed analyses have been conducted over the last year. Those programs include 1) optimization of degraded land use, 2) reduced impact logging (RIL), and 3) preservation of peatland. Central Kalimantan is at the beginning of its journey to green growth, and GGGI’s analysis has recently started. Governor Teras Narang gave the province clear guidance for its green growth

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objectives when he said, “Environmental sustainability and economic prosperity are not mutually exclusive, but are together the recipe for more robust, sustainable, and regionally rooted development.� The objective in Central Kalimantan is to build the fact base that will allow for analysis and prioritization of green growth activities. Four primary activities have been initiated: Data collection for district greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment Data collection for an economic diagnostic at the district level Stakeholder mapping Capability building Main activities and outputs The work conducted in East Kalimantan was structured around three elements that together aim at moving the province toward sustainable action on green growth - REDD readiness, institution building, and green growth policy. REDD readiness: GGGI supported the DDPI in identifying the five activities with the highest potential to reduce carbon emissions: zero burning policy, reduced impact logging, increased use of degraded land, prevention of peat decomposition, and reforestation. Of these five, as mentioned above, the three most promising initiatives were selected for further economic analysis in order to assess the viability of developing pilot projects. Each analysis identified the conditions for implementation, assessed the underlying economics, and identified barriers to implementation (e.g., policies or incentives). REDD Readiness deliverables included the following: Optimization of degraded land use - In-depth analysis of the degraded lands in East Kalimantan identified the possibilities to re-purpose these lands for economic development (e.g., oil palm). The land use optimization analysis identified some 500,000 ha of degraded land in East Kalimantan that could be economically exploited. It indicated that developing degraded land is both a potential driver of economic growth and an alternative to development on forested land. Reduced impact logging (RIL) - In-depth economic analysis on the economics of RIL and policy obstacles for implementation. In analyzing reduced impact logging the GGGI team quantified costs and benefits of RIL to show that over the lifetime of a concession, RIL is financially more attractive than conventional logging. If RIL were to be more broadly adopted, it could increase the profitability of logging companies and reduce emissions by causing less damage to non-commercial timber. Prevention of peat decomposition - In-depth analysis assessing the economics and

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feasibility of conserving and rehabilitating peatlands. The analysis of peatland conservation and rehabilitation examined in detail the economics of preserving carbon intensive peat. It found that if carbon prices were low then rehabilitation would only be attractive if blended with conservation. Assessment of financing needs - The final piece of the REDD readiness activities was to identify the priority activities and the financial needs for implementation. The GGGI team supported the analysis of possible activities and the associated costs. This area will be subject of further work in the coming months. Institution building: At the end of the previous phase of work supported by GGGI, the DDPI had just been formed to coordinate green growth issues and advise the Governor on related policy. Institution building accomplishments included the following: Organizational design - GGGI provided the DDPI with detailed analysis on a number of options on how it could structure itself. A design that combines working groups with a secretariat to manage ongoing activities was selected. Staffing and recruitment plan - The DDPI required support to identify the roles it needed to fill and how to go about filling them. GGGI contributed to developing job descriptions and a staffing plan, which included the secondment of government officials to the DDPI. Policy and activity agenda - GGGI supported DDPI in developing options for activities required to implement its mandate, which were subsequently adopted by the organization. Capacity building program - The shortage of institutional capacity in East Kalimantan (and Indonesia more generally) is a critical obstacle to undertaking green growth projects and activities. A comprehensive capacity building program supported by GGGI for the DDPI and other key green growth actors in the province will help address this. Green growth policy: At the end of the prior phase, East Kalimantan’s provincial Green Growth Strategy had been syndicated with government officials at the district level. The Governor, however, had not yet endorsed the strategy at that time and, therefore, it lacked official standing for provincial policy makers to integrate into their agencies plans and activities. The green growth policy deliverable included the following: Adoption of the Green Growth Strategy by the Governor. Governor Awang Faroek Ishak endorsed the Green Growth Strategy in May 2011 as a basis for developing provincial policy. Provincial agencies now have direction as to where they should be heading. The next step will be to operationalize the strategy, through developing the implications to provincial economic development plans and agency activities.

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Work in Central Kalimantan has recently started and focused on data collection for greenhouse gas assessment and for economic diagnostic, stakeholder mapping, and capacity building. Like in East Kalimantan, there is much work to be done to ready the province for green growth. Improving capabilities of the officials at the core of the green growth process is essential. GGGI has focused its support on designing training material, modeling it on the material developed for East Kalimantan. Policy Implications for East Kalimantan The analysis for each of the pilot programs carried out in East Kalimantan identified some key obstacles to their implementation. In particular, there are policy barriers and limitations that may make implementation difficult. Some of the policy obstacles are at a structural / national level beyond the reach of the provincial government. Key obstacles identified which require intervention at the national level, include: Harmonize regulatory rules across all government levels and agencies. There is some inconsistency of the definition and application of regulations among levels of government and agencies. What a district endorses may be contrary to another rule at the national level. The result is a confusing and often contradictory system of rules and regulations that is both expensive and time consuming to negotiate. Harmonizing rules would provide clarity for stakeholders, such as businesses and communities affected by the licensing process. Similarly, common definitions would facilitate communication among government agencies. Strengthen the enforcement of existing regulations. There are many reasons for the difficulty in enforcing Indonesia’s laws protecting its carbon resources. Disagreements between levels of government and unclear laws both contribute to ineffective enforcement. The shortage of capacity for enforcement leaves the regulations somewhat empty in terms of their impact. Effective enforcement requires a combination of strong legal provisions with appropriate penalties and law enforcement officers that have a high degree of accountability. In many cases, this will also require the cooperation between different law enforcement agencies given the complexity of operating in remote locations. Establish clearer divisions of authority and responsibilities and improve coordination between the government jurisdictions. Different agencies are empowered to grant different types of licenses - mining, logging and agriculture - yet there is no authority coordinating the granting of licenses among these agencies. The result is that the same parcel of land can have overlapping licenses with different owners. The creation and empowerment of a single and integrated permit issuance body (that coordinates with districts to provide on the

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ground data support) is one way to address this issue. This institution would draw upon the technical expertise of existing agencies, but would need full authority for the concession licensing process, as well as the maintenance and upkeep of data. Important obstacles that could be addressed at the provincial level include: Provide incentives for the implementation of green growth. As discussed above, there is substantial potential to generate economic growth while reducing emissions by effectively exploiting degraded lands. There are multiple obstacles to doing this on a large scale including access to forest estate lands for agricultural purposes and the absence of an interdistrict benefit sharing mechanism. However, at the provincial level steps can be taken to demonstrate the viability of some of these activities, like developing agricultural production on degraded land. Provide transparent information on the issuance of land use concession licenses. Reference maps are an essential tool in the process to grant concession licenses. However, government agencies currently use maps that are outdated and in some cases contradictory. This results in boundary disputes and overlapping licenses. In some cases outdated information on forest land cover and license distribution inhibits the effectiveness of policymakers in making informed decisions. In other cases, district officials might choose to use non-standard maps in order to have more latitude in issuing licenses. In both scenarios the absence of accurate and transparent information creates problems. The province could develop a database of all current maps and it could verify that the district respects the rules in issuing licenses. Such a system could be initially implemented at the district level and help the province increase its influence over the licensing process as well as adherence to the rules. The next step in GGGI’s program will be develop programs that test and implement promising ideas that have been developed during the analytical phase of its work. The next steps for green growth in East Kalimantan revolve around developing the capacity and institutional wherewithal of the DDPI and moving the province’s green growth agenda towards meaningful action. The successful full - scale implementation of green growth in East and Central Kalimantan is still years away. Yet it is closer than it has ever been before, thanks to the commitment of both National and Provincial Governments in Indonesia. Much work remains, but the journey has begun in earnest.

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Kazakhstan Background GGGI has been working with the government of Kazakhstan since May 2011 and has agreed to help develop a GGP for the country. In October 2011 an MoU was signed between GGGI and the Republic of Kazakhstan to help the government design and implement the Kazakhstan National Green Growth Plan (KNGGP). In recent years, Kazakhstan has experienced significant economic growth, peaking at nearly 10 percent annualized between 2000 and 2008. This growth has been driven primarily by the development of the country’s rich natural resources. However the country has faced challenges in pursuing further growth due to its excessive dependence on primary industries, lack of capacity and institutional structures as well as its high vulnerability and low adaptation potential to climate change given the country’s semi - desert geography and inadequate water resources. Given these circumstances, the government of Kazakhstan concluded that developing robust green growth strategies was necessary in order to address the issues of both environmental protection and the limits to economic growth. As a step in this direction Kazakhstan recently launched the Astana Green Bridge Initiative (AGBI) to promote green economies over Europe and the Asia - Pacific region. Designed to be a “green silk road,” the initiative is based on knowledge transfers from developed countries to emerging economies in order to promote green growth. GGGI’s support for the KNGGP will be undertaken as the first element of the AGBI in partnership with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which is providing the bulk of the funding for such support. Other partners include the Green Bridge Office and the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute for Ecology and Climate (KAZIIEK).

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Objectives GGGI’s overall objective is to promote, support, and develop a comprehensive national green growth plan for Kazakhstan. Although the KNGGP will be customized to suit Kazakhstan’s specific needs, like other GGGI GGPs there will be efforts to help design a policy framework and build an institutional and regulatory infrastructure, as well as design measures for capacity building. Sectoral work will focus on water and energy under the subtasks of the National Water Sector Development Program and the National Sustainable Energy Plan. The work plan under KNGGP can be divided into three specific phases: The first phase, which is just getting under way, is the scoping and set - up. This is where potential priority sectors for green growth in Kazakhstan will be identified. It will result in a report naming the priority sectors as well as a macroeconomic analysis of the benefits and impact green growth policies will have on the Kazakh economy. The second phase is developing the KNGGP itself. The object is to construct a holistic national green growth plan for all priority sectors and work on the subtasks (water and energy) to establish a National Water Sector Development Program (NWSDP) and a National Sustainable Energy Plan (NSEP). The NWSDP will be the result of GGGI’s work with the Kazakh government in improving the national water resource management system; making recommendations regarding institutional, legislative, and regulatory changes in water policy; and promoting public - private partnerships to enhance water-use efficiency. The NSEP will consist of developing a renewable energy action plan, supporting the government in introducing institutional and legislative frameworks for energy efficiency, and assist the government with developing a plan to modernize housing while focusing on energy efficiency. The third phase is implementation translating plans into action, including potential pilot projects and public - private partnership in the water and energy sectors. Main activities and outputs The KNGGP process has just gotten underway and good progress has been made in the scoping and set - up aspects of the plan. A kick - off meeting has been held with EBRD and the Kazakh government to discuss the work plan and define the set - up of the working group. There have also been efforts at collecting and reviewing existing national policy approaches

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and strategies. In addition, a detailed inception paper has been produced by GGGI and submitted to EBRD. Policy Implications Kazakhstan’s successful completion of its KNGGP will constitute an important component of the country’s growth strategy. If successfully implemented, the KNGGP could aspire to serve as a regional catalyst to spur further Green Growth in other Central Asian nations, which, in turn, could further boost Kazakhstan’s broad stream of economic growth. The two subtasks will provide technical assistance to Kazakhstan Government, focusing on appropriate policies and structures to efficiently channel government resources, manage related institutions and instill private sector confidence and participation. Future plans/next step The project has a 13 month implementation period and was launched in September 2011. Progress regarding the KNGGP will be presented by President Nursultan Nazarbayev at Rio+20 summit in June 2012, at which time the project will be more than half complete. An advisory group consisting of world - renowned green growth experts and high Kazakhstan Government officials will be formed to provide guidelines and advice as the project progresses. In real terms the scoping and set up has already begun and the GGP development began in earnest in mid - November 2011. Implementation of the plan will begin in June of 2012 to coincide with the Rio summit. Project milestones include: submission of the Inception Report (October 2011), Submission of an interim progress report (February 2012) and submission of the final report on implementation (September 2012).

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Thailand Background The GGGI project with Thailand is a targeted program intended to assist the country in setting up a Voluntary Emission Reductions (VER) regime with the aim to assist the country in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) production. This endeavor stands as the first GHG emission reduction registration system implemented by a non-Annex I country. The program began in 2010. It is supported by the Korea Energy Management Corporation (KEMCO) and the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO). Objectives In supporting Thailand to establish GHG emission reduction management systems, the project is broken down into two main stages: establishing infrastructure and building an accountable VER process. The first stage involves training program managers in-country as well as active promotion and support for VER and pilot projects to measure the most effective method of implementing VER. The second stage requires providing training for project verifiers and consultants, setting up an IT system to coordinate project management, conducting an energy audit, and establishing a GHG inventory system. The project is creating a reduction registry management system that will manage data registration, certification, monitoring methodology as well as develop standards, criteria and assessment of quality control. There will also be third-party verification to ensure reliable reduction performance. Once these fundamentals are in place and a successful pilot project can be expanded upon, voluntary emission reduction will be monitored and maintained. Main Activities and Outputs Country selection and training is underway. An MoU was signed with TOG in 2010. In Thailand, significant progress has been made on the first stage of the progress, particularly in the areas of capacity building. In addition, a pilot project was selected. The ThaiOil Company was selected for an energy audit to improve the use of energy and reduce the emissions of GHGs at the company’s facilities. The audit was performed by KEMCO, who suggested a number of measures to curb GHGs and save energy. Among the suggestions were to increase process heat recovery by heat integration with pinch technology and MP steam generation, to save hot oil by installing upgraded technologies, and to reduce power by optimizing pump operations. If these and other recommendations are followed, it is estimated that ThaiOil could

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save 14.9 percent of total energy consumption and save roughly US $1 million per year at one facility alone. The GHG emission inventory for the company is in progress. Initial findings show that 69 percent of total emissions come from fuel combustion. The focus on reductions, then, will be upgrading its hydro-treating unit. The second phase of the VER program is, as of this writing, just getting underway. Policy Implications VER systems are viewed as an essential step for nations to begin to seriously reduce carbon emissions. If Thailand, a developing Asian nation, can implement an effective method of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it can serve as a model to other emerging economies and demonstrate that GHG reduction is possible, and indeed highly beneficial, without sacrificing economic growth. Furthermore, this VER project can help reduce opportunity costs for entering VER systems throughout the region and beyond. Future plans/next step The next step for Thailand is to further develop the VER infrastructure. GGGI will support Thailand in making regulatory recommendations as regards VER as well as help to establish an IT system and support building up a carbon market through setting up a common protocol and a transaction platform. Lastly, GGGI will consult the Thai government on maintaining its VER infrastructure and its carbon transaction system.

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United Arab Emirates Background In March 2011, GGGI signed an MOU with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates to develop a green growth plan (GGP) tailored to the UAE’s specific economic and environmental conditions. The agreement also includes the establishment of a GGGI regional office in Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City to serve green growth efforts in the Middle East and North Africa. The agreement states that training and capacity - building programs will be conducted on green growth initiatives at the regional, national and local levels through reciprocal human resource exchange programs. The plan is funded entirely by the UAE federal government. Development of the GGP includes numerous partners, including organizations such as the Korea Legislation Research Institute (KLRI), the Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea (GIR), the Korea Environment Institute (KEI), Research Institute of Industrial Science and Technology (RIST), and UNEP RISOE. The Project is overseen by a GGGI - UAE joint Steering Committee. The UAE government has set up a UAE Management Team comprised of representatives from Masdar, MIST, the Abu Dhabi Environmental Agency, the Ministry of Energy, and the Global Environmental Data Initiative of Abu Dhabi. In addition, government officials from the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Environment will join the GGGI-UAE joint Project Team. Objectives GGGI’s primary objective is to partner with the UAE at multiple levels of government, as well as with external institutions, to help develop a robust Green Growth Plan and provide tailored support towards the governments in their efforts to implement such a plan at the national and local level. The GGP aims to integrate existing national policies and measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation and align them with economic development. The completed GGP will contain specific policy objectives, directions, recommendations and measures that are specific for the UAE and its economy, and adequately reflect the strengths and weaknesses associated with implementing green growth policies and strategies. The process of developing the GGP involves working closely with local stakeholders from the

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initial phase of the GGP development. GGGI’s UAE program is designed to create synergy with the UAE’s existing green initiatives centered on the establishment of the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) which was recently approved by the UAE cabinet. Furthermore, throughout the entire process of scoping, formulation, and execution of activities, GGGI will aim to build close partnerships with public and private stakeholders in the UAE and to catalyze a sustained green partnership building with the UAE’s expert organizations. More specifically the GGP will create a framework for policy and governance of green growth strategies, including a regulatory framework. In addition the GGP will include a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory. This will involve designing a database infrastructure and a data collection system from multiple sources, which will lead to the implementation of an effective measurement, verification, and reporting (MRV) system by the end of the GGP period. The UAE GGP will also focus heavily on capacity building by setting up numerous workshops targeting key areas within green growth, such as transport, energy, and waste management to promote as well as identifying audiences and individuals who can most effectively be trained to work in these specific fields. These targeted activities represent the individual layers for the achievement of the abovementioned holistic goal of establishing a GGP and as such are not designed to be implemented on an individual case - by - case basis. Rather, these objectives will be pursued in conjunction with the overall planning for green growth in UAE with the aim of facilitating a complete transition of the nation towards a green society. For this purpose, the GGGI - UAE joint Project Team will have specialized groups for each of the above activities (Policy & Governance, GHG inventory and Capacity Building) while a GGGI Project Manager will oversee and coordinate works of the three groups in close consultation with UAE partners. Main activities and outputs Although the partnership between GGGI and the UAE has only recently begun, there have been some concrete, tangible results. In July 2011, GGGI opened its Abu Dhabi office to facilitate GGGI’s activities in the UAE by placing resources on the ground and providing the hub for capacity - building programs. The office will collaborate closely with the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST), the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the International Renewable Energy Agency, and other expert institutes in GGGI’s extensive partnership network. Additionally, the GGGI Abu Dhabi Office is intended to serve as a regional hub in tackling issues such as climate change and economic development throughout

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the Middle East and North Africa. GGGI co - organized six workshops between March and September 2011 with GGGI’s partner institutions, including GIR, KEI, KLRI, and UNEP Risoe to share expertise and experience in fleshing out the specifics of the UAE’s GGGP. Policy Implications The potential policy implications for successfully instituting and realizing green growth in a country that has traditionally been heavily oil - dependent are significant for the region and for the world. The introduction of sustainable living through clean energy and the rational use of energy, efficient resource and waste management, sustainable transport, green labeling, good air quality, and climate - resilient economic development could provide a model to other nations in the region who have traditionally built their economies around exporting fossil fuels. For the UAE itself, the GGP will significantly affect policy and governance in the country. The policy framework that is to be developed is expected to provide a comprehensive plan at the national level to tackle environmental challenges while growing the economy. A focused government initiative capable of channeling support from the leadership and engaging relevant public and private stakeholders could avoid duplicative efforts across the Emirates, provide a balanced plan for low carbon growth geographically and across sectors, build domestic capacity, allow faster implementation and the alignment of various players, and create a favorable environment to attract foreign investment and up-to-date technologies. Future plans/next steps The UAE GGP development is a three year plan with a further five year implementation period. As such, the vast majority of the items discussed above have yet to be developed and implemented. The most immediate next steps is designating the project time line, preparing, the status analysis and benchmark studies report, performing an existing GHG activity data survey, and finalizing the capacity building curriculum.

GGGI has built a solid foundation for the sustained implementation of multiple GGPs. As time goes on, GGGI will monitor the progress of its GGPs and report the results. For more information, please visit www.gggi.org

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Conclusion While still a new organization, GGGI’s green growth planning has yielded tangible results and will continue to expand in scope and in content. In less than two years, GGGI has built a solid foundation for the sustained implementation of multiple GGPs. As time goes on, GGGI will monitor the progress of its GGPs and report the results. For more information, please visit www.gggi.org

GGGI’s Partner Countries: Australia, Brazil, Cambodia, Denmark, Ethiopia, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, United Arab Emirates GGGI’s Partner Institutions: ADB, Danfoss Group, EBRD, GIZ, Global Green Growth Forum, National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRCEHS), OECD, UNESCAP, World Economic Forum www.gggi.org

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18th Floor Jeongdong Bldg. 15-5 Jeong-dong Jung-gu, Seoul, Korea 100-784 www.gggi.org


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