Illustrated Guide to Human Progress

AN ILLUSTRATED GUIDE TO

AND HOW WE MIGHT BLOW IT BASED ON SUICIDE OF THE WEST

BY JONAH GOLDBERG

ACCORDING TO THE BOOK OF GENESIS, the first humans lived in an earthly paradise.

In reality, the NATURAL STATE of mankind was no Eden. Instead, it consisted of grinding poverty punctuated by horrific violence, terminating with an early death.

It was like this for a very, very long time.

HERE’S A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT Imagine an alien had been assigned to keep tabs on Homo sapiens for the past 250,000 years, visiting ONCE EVERY 10,000 YEARS.

From: Joshua Greene, Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them (New York: Penguin, 2013).

VISIT 1

VISIT 2

SEMI-HAIRLESS, UPRIGHT, NOMADIC APES FORAGING AND FIGHTING FOR FOOD.

SEMI-HAIRLESS, UPRIGHT, NOMADIC APES FORAGING AND FIGHTING FOR FOOD. NO CHANGE.

240,000 YEARS AGO

230,000 YEARS AGO

VISIT 3

VISIT 4

...

...

NO CHANGE.

NO CHANGE.

220,000 YEARS AGO

210,000 YEARS AGO

The alien would write roughly the SAME THING for the next 230,000 YEARS.

VISIT 24 (10,000 YEARS AGO)

VISIT 25

On the 24th VISIT, the alien would see that we stopped foraging and started farming.

In some ways, though, humans were actually WORSE OFF. Our diet was less diverse, and our days were filled by tedious, backbreaking labor.

On the eve of the alien’s 25th VISIT, life on earth was still “nasty, brutish, and short.”

VISIT 24 VISIT 25 (TODAY)

On the FINAL VISIT, however, our alien visitor’s ship would probably be spotted by NORAD.

SO HOW

DID WE GET TO

WHERE WE ARE TODAY?

From: Matt Ridley, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (New York: HarperCollins, 2010).

After thousands of generations of trial and error, we discovered “best practices.”

You might call it a MIRACLE.

Remember those early farmers?

If roving bandits stole your tools and food, you were doomed— since you had no other way to feed yourself.

So humans figured they’d rather be protected by “stationary bandits,” who only stole SOME of your food.*

*At least this was more predictable, and humans could now make longer-term investments.

Over time, people started to place constraints on the bandits.

Then came the revolutionary idea that all individuals have rights.

Then came democracy.

ELECT ME

Along with a new appreciation for human rights, there was an . . .

EconomicMiracle $45,000 UNITED STATES

GDP PER PERSON $35,000

EUROPE

$25,000

$15,000 WORLD

$5,000

1000 AD

1250 AD

1500 AD

From: Edd S. Noell et al., Economic Growth: Unleashing the Potential of Human Flourishing (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2013).

1750 AD

2000 AD All figures in 2012 dollars

One of the features of the pre-capitalist, pre-industrial world was the SHEER AMOUNT OF WORK required to perform even the most menial tasks.

Think of the farmer and woolspinner who throughout human history struggled, often in vain, just to survive.

The Economic Miracle allowed us to produce much more food with a tiny fraction of the farmers.

100%

90%

SHARE OF US LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1.5% 1790

2012

From: Debra Spielmaker, “Growing a Nation Historical Timeline,” March 21, 2018, https://www.agclassroom.org/gan/ timeline/index.htm.

In 1880, the town of Wabash, Indiana, got its first public electric light.

According to a newspaper, the crowd

“stood overwhelmed with awe, as if in the presence of the supernatural . . .

Men fell on their knees, groans were uttered at the sight, and many were dumb with amazement.�

In 1900 there were ONLY 8,000 registered vehicles in the United States.

A generation later, there were OVER 25 MILLION.

Opposite page: Robert Bryce, Smaller Faster Lighter Denser Cheaper (New York: Public Affairs, 2014).

Above: Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).

The Miracle also gave us longer, healthier lives.

Just consider the story of President Calvin Coolidge’s son.

In 1924, he got a blister on his toe while playing tennis. It got infected, and without antibiotics, HE DIED a week later.

In case you still need convincing, consider these statistics:

Literacy

1820

Democracy

2015

Basic Education

1820

Life Expectancy

2015

GRAPH Literacy Democracy Basic Education Vaccination

2015

1820

2015

Internet Usage

2015

Population above Extreme Poverty

1820

1820

GDP Per Capita

Years of Schooling

1820

2015

Vaccination

2015

1820

1820

2015

1820

2015

Energy Consumption

1820

2015

SOURCE OECD, UNESCO Polity IV Index OECD, IIASA WHO

GDP Per Capita

DEFINITION The percentage of population age 15 and older which is literate Share of the world population living in a democracy The percentage of population age 15 and older enrolled in formal education DTP3 immunization coverage (%) The number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life GDP converted to US dollar using 1990 purchasing power parity rates

Years of Schooling

The average years of education in the total population age 15 and older

OECD, UNDP

Internet Usage

The percentage of individuals who have used the internet (from any location) in the last 3 months World Bank Group

Life Expectancy

Population above The percentage of the population living on more than $1.90 a day at 2011 international prices Extreme Poverty Energy Consumption Global primary energy consumption, measured in terawatt hours

OECD, World Bank Group OECD, World Bank Group

OurWorldInData.org OurWorldInData.org

AND YET . . . Despite all of this progress, many people think there’s something inherently alienating, exploitative, or just PLAIN WRONG about the present.

Some people seek to return to some form of TRIBAL SOLIDARITY where we’re all in it together.

Our inner primitive cries out: “THERE MUST BE A BETTER WAY!”

But—spoiler alert—there isn’t one. This is it. Look around, you’re standing at the end of history.

We CAN get better. There are still a lot of problems in our modern society we can solve together.

But in the final analysis, we wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for . . .

And yet, just as humans created a more peaceful, cooperative, and prosperous world—they also have the power to undo it.

For the vast majority of history, humans lived in small groups. We are primed with a strong instinct to IDENTIFY WITH TRIBES. The secret of the Miracle—and modernity itself—stems from our ability to hold this tendency in check.

Identity politics on the LEFT AND THE RIGHT is just a subset of the worldview that says “my tribe deserves more than your tribe.”

Capitalism isn’t natural. Democracy isn’t natural.

Human rights aren’t natural.

Without effort, civilization dies, because CIVILIZATION TAKES EFFORT.

Our alien visitor has been to Earth 25 TIMES. What will the alien find on its next visit?

A world still grateful for the Miracle? Or a world once more defined by grinding poverty, horrific violence, and early death?

We decide every day with our words and actions the fate of the human race.

Available wherever books are sold.

JONAH GOLDBERG is a fellow and Asness Chair in Applied Liberty at the American Enterprise Institute, where he writes about political and cultural issues. He is concurrently a senior editor at

. A bestselling

author, he writes a nationally syndicated column that appears regularly in more than 100 newspapers across the United States.

www.jonahgoldberg.com

@JonahNRO

Design and Concept by Olivier Ballou Illustrations by Giap Nguyen* (behance.net/duonggiap) Special thanks to Jack Butler and Xuanqi Wu

*Giap is a freelance illustrator who lives in Vietnam. His involvement in this project is a testament to the “miracle” of trade and modernity.

© 2018 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author(s).

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