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Gippsland needs support to transition to 2050 net zero emissions target
NEW economic modelling shows Gippsland as the only region in Victoria that would experience slower jobs growth in a net zero economy. The modelling report from Victoria University compares two scenarios: business as usual and a transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. Under both scenarios, all areas of Victoria will experience economic and jobs growth. Most regions across Victoria will experience higher economic and jobs growth if Australia transitions to a net-zero economy. While Gippsland could see 36,100 new jobs in a net-zero economy by 2050, jobs growth is lower compared to Gippsland’s business-as-usual scenario. If Australia transitions to net-zero emissions, more jobs will be created and economic growth will be higher. The report shows that even with a commitment to net-zero emissions, the Australian economy will continue to grow strongly at an average of 2.56 per cent per annum, just 0.03 below a business-as-usual approach. The report’s author, Professor Philip Adams, said the cost of Australia transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050 had plummeted by 80 per cent in just eight years, because of “a rapid decline in the cost of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and the emergence of new green technologies”. The report highlights under a net-zero emissions transition, every region in Australia will continue to grow, and in 42 out of 88 regions economic growth will be above the business-as-usual scenario. The report identifies nine out of 88 regions where production and employment growth is more constrained because of a net-zero emissions policy. Growth is still expected in these regions, but at a lower rate compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The modelling takes a conservative approach and is based on today’s technology and industries, but does require government policy intervention. Importantly, the modelling does not include the possible effects of slowing climate change such as savings from fewer extreme weather events and fires. Professor Adams said that while the modelling showed net-zero would have an economic benefit or neutral effect on most of Australia, government
The Latrobe Valley will need government support, such as an investment in renewable energy industries in the area and retraining the local workforce, under a net zero emissions by 2050 target. Pictured, Yallourn Power Station. support and transition strategies were needed for some regions. “Governments need to properly plan, resource and invest in regions like the Latrobe Valley to attract renewable energy industries, new green industries and invest in retraining and upskilling the workforce,” he said. “Not having these strategies or delaying the transition means the pain will be felt greatest in these regions with large coal, gas and petroleum industries.” Professor Adams said transitioning to net-zero
represented value for money for Australia. “Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is like buying an insurance policy,” he said. “We incur a small decline in the growth in gross domestic product in order to limit the potential impact of catastrophic climate change.” Some sectors will experience economic and jobs growth as a result of net-zero such as the forestry and renewable energy generation sectors. Forestry will grow at 93 per cent with a commitment to net-zero compared to business as usual, largely because of bio-sequestration (removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by plants).
The modelling uses a price on carbon to incentivise transition to net-zero emissions. “It will be very difficult for Australia to achieve net-zero without some price on carbon, whether that is explicitly through a carbon tax, or implicitly through costs imposed by regulation, subsidies for new technology or the removal of existing fossil fuel subsidies.” Professor Adams said. “But the task is getting much easier. “Eight years ago, our modelling showed the effective price on carbon needed to be $285 a tonne to achieve net-zero – now it is at $151 per tonne.”
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Times-Spectator, Tuesday, 23 November, 2021 – Page 13
