WHAT WILL HAPPEN SUPPLIERS

Those without a clear goal for adjusting to the future will be the losers when the next chapter of the auto industry is written, a special report warns recent special report from S&P Global Mobility gently asks if the last throttle body manufacturer would kindly turn out the lights.

What’s ahead of the automotive industry is clearly problematic for internal combustion engine (ICE) suppliers. The world is moving to electrification. Expect a shakeout, S&P predicted.

So for how long can those suppliers reliant on gasoline propulsion go on and count on being in business? There’s no use ignoring the 2035 mandate to outlaw passenger ICE vehicles.

Guido Vildozo, senior manager of Americas light vehicles sales forecasting at S&P Global Mobility, told attendees of this year's AIA Canada’s National Conference that the feedback he’s received is that regulators would rather have lower vehicle sales volume

Even in a country that is fragmented when it comes to electrification policies — such as British Columbia and Quebec being the only provinces offering a rebate on zero-emission vehicle purchases — the mandate will come into effect.

“So they're not joking,” Voldozo said of regulators. But where Canada may differ from the rest of the world is the type of zero-emission vehicle consumers lean towards between now and then. Few countries have weather like Canada so it stands to reason Canadians would prefer to choose a hybrid electric vehicle when looking at all options.

Globally, hybrids represent about 4-5 per cent of any market share in the future. In Canada’s case, that number sits at about 8-9 per cent.