COVID-19 • OPINION
South Africa: before, during and after the Covid-19 pandemic | Part 4 Part 1 of this series mainly describes how South Africans experienced life since democracy until Covid-19 arrived. Parts 2 to 4 update our Covid-19 experience. Parts 3 and 4 look at how we must plan for our
future now. We cannot wait until Covid-19 has faded away to overcome the unacceptable shortcomings of the last 26 years. By Derek G Hazelton
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he number of new Covid-19 cases per day has seen a steady increase since November 2020. While this was initially attributed to risk management and compliance fatigue, South Africa has now officially entered its second wave. Evidence strongly suggests that the current second wave is being driven by the new Covid-19 variant announced by Minister of Health Dr Zweli Mkhize on 18 December. According to the minister, preliminary data suggests that the variant may be more transmissible but that, looking at the current deaths information, there are no red flags related to its severity. Mkhize has also been reported as saying that more young people are testing positive, that they have not been adhering to the rules, and that a larger proportion with no comorbidities are presenting with severe illness. “We are no longer asking young people to
only think of others; they must think of themselves too because they are now equally at risk of dying,” he said. As recorded in figures 1 and 2, the number of new cases per day by the end of 2020 had marginally exceeded the maximum number recorded during the first wave and the number of deaths per day had outstripped the maximum number of deaths by 19%. These figures indicate an ongoing exponential growth in both the number of new cases and the number of deaths per day, with no significant sign of abatement. Figure 3 shows that Europe’s second wave – which was far more severe than its first – is abating. Provided we improve our adherence to good risk-management practices, our second wave should also abate, but it appears that the pandemic is likely to continue until it eventually fades away, perhaps after a third or even a fourth wave or until an effective vaccine is universally available.
FIGURE 1 History of new confirmed Covid-19 pandemic cases per day in South Africa, 1 May to 31 December 2020
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Derek G Hazelton, Pr Eng., FWISA, founder and manager of TSE Water Services
The adjusted Alert Level 3 lockdown
In response to the second wave, President Ramaphosa announced the adjusted Alert Level 3 lockdown that took effect on 28 December 2020. The move aims to limit super-spreader events further and to ease the pressure on hospitals and health workers while keeping the economy as open as possible. While most of the Alert Level 3 regulations are a reasonable response to the second wave, the blanket prohibition on all social gatherings ignores many essential human basic needs. However, it is not the regulations themselves, but our social distancing, avoiding crowds (especially indoors), mask wearing, hygiene practices and other basic infection control measures that will slow down the infection rate.
Covid-19 vaccines
Similar previous pandemics have generally been overcome without vaccines, and it is recommended that we conduct our lives in a manner that assumes a vaccine will never become available. Notwithstanding this recommendation, we have a right to be informed of the steps being taken by our government to procure and roll out a safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19. To date, we have received too little information, although we have been promised announcements in the coming weeks. However, the current lack of information leaves us concerned that there is insufficient planning, and an inadequate sense of urgency in making a vaccine
