GLOBAL TRENDS REPORT 2017
“The Electric Car Revolution“
https://insights.samsung.com/2017/02/21/new-efforts-aimed-at-connected-car-standards/
New York | April 2017 1
World Car Trends 2017 2015 | Sources Global Expert Community
Global Media Trends
75 World Car Jurors
Top 25 markets
Countries
All automotive brands [> 150] and models Top opinion leading media (TV | print | online)
News channels
2013 – 2017: > 200 million documents (blogs, forums, networks)
Social channels
Sponsored by: Legend:
Media Analysis
Survey
Brands
Third-Party Research
PRIME Insights
World Car Trends 2017 2015 | The Global Expert Community STEFAN ANKER
CHARLEY CHAE
ROBERT COLLIN
THOMAS GEIGER HENNY HEMMES MARK RICHARDSON
GREG KABLE XIA DONG
KYLE FORTUNE
MATTHEW ASKARI
JOO-SIK CHOI
YOSHIHIRO KIMURA
DMITRY BARINOV
MICHEL DESLAURIERS ZAC ESTRADA
EDDIE CUNNINGHAM
RICHARD HOMAN
VITALY TISHCHENKO
JUERGEN ZOELLTER NAT BARNES
NICK KURCZEWSKI
OSCAR SANABRIA
Global Expert Community MOHAMED SHETA
STEVE FOWLER
MILOS MILAC
MIKE RUTHERFORD
JASON STEIN
FERNANDO GOMEZ BLANCO
JACLYN TROP
MANUEL GOMEZ BLANCO JASON VOGEL
LUIZ GUERRERO
SYLVAIN REISSER
LIONEL ROBERT
LI GENG LIU HONGCANG
DHRUV BEHL
MICHAEL TAYLOR
MIAO JUN WILLIAM WANG KUN
WANG YUNQING SVEN XU
SIDDHART VINAYAK PATANKAR HANNES OOSTHUIZEN
YASUHIKO KAWAMURA PETER LYON
SIRISH CHANDRAN
STEPHAN SCHAETZL
SHINICHI KATSURA
CUI JUN
SEAN X.H. QIU
ALESSANDRO LAGO
CHARLIE TURNER
TIM STEVENS
IVAN VLADIMIROV
MACIEJ PERTYNSKI
RICHARD BREMNER
JOE LORIO
TAMARA WARREN
VLADIMIR SOLOVIEV
PETER SCHWERDTMANN
RICHARD AUCOCK
JEFF JABLANSKY
JOHN MCCORMICK
JENS MEINERS
LIANG ZHAOHUI
YOGENDRA PRATAP
HORMAZD SORABJEE
JOSHUA DOWLING
RENUKA KIRPALANI
PAUL GOVER
HIDESHI MATSUDA GORO OKAZAKI
KOJI OZAWA KAZUNORI YAMAUCHI
Management Summary
THE FUTURE BELONGS TO ELECTRIC MOBILITY – BUT IT WILL BE A LONG ROAD › Diesel engines currently have a global market share of 13.5%, but are expected to be surpassed by battery electric vehicles in 2025. Currently, battery electrics only account for 1% of global car sales. The reputation of BEV’s has consistently increased over the last 5 years, yet PHEV, BEVx and FCEV have lost momentum.
› The “battery” is seen as the energy carrier of the future, which seems to reflect a paradigm change as battery electrics were seen as the least promising powertrain option four years ago. › Key drivers for the e-car trend remain range, charging infrastructure, faster charging and decreasing costs: E-mobility increasingly thrives on the quality of its offerings instead of regulatory requirements. Stricter emission standards and high oil prices have become less important in the drive towards e-mobility. › Tesla currently leads the electric race, closely followed by premium brands such as Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo. Tesla, along with car brands strongly associated with hybrid powertrains and fuel-cells, has benefited from the diesel emissions crisis, while the reputation of the traditional car industry has suffered. › China remains by far the top EV market worldwide in terms of sales.
› New Chinese players, such as LeEco’s Faraday Future and LeSee for example, have not yet fully convinced experts of their electric capabilities. Success of the Chinese internet-giants as new ‘digital’ start-ups is considered critical. They may not be able to develop the best electric cars on the planet, but they may be in a better position than traditional OEM’s to leverage ‘data’ as the fuel of their business models since this has been their core business model for years.
4
Management Summary C ONNECTED MOBILITY ›
Future technologies are paving the way for new players in the automotive industry as well as disruptive new business models: Tech companies such as Google, Apple, Tencent, LeEco and Foxconn are entering the sector. The perceived influence of Google/Waymo as technology providers for the ‘digital car’ is evident, although the main push still comes from established OEMs. Providers are back in the game and have gained strong momentum as key drivers for the digital car.
›
It is expected that as soon as 2022 data will play a major role in automotive business models. The USA is seen as a key market for data-driven business models. This may be another reason, besides tax incentives, for a Chinese internet giant like LeEco to build a car brand such as FaradayFuture in the USA. Big data applications show increasing consumer acceptance, but stand and fall with data privacy and security.
AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY ›
Autonomous driving regains momentum in 2017. The once highly hated ‘Advanced Driver Assistance feature’ has turned into one of the most admired features: A steep learning curve over the last five years has changed journalists’ perceptions.
›
In the eyes of experts, every form of autonomous driving is desirable and some manufacturers are currently trying to fast forward through the race to level 5 ‘full autonomy’. However, autonomous driving is seen as most desirable at “Level 3”. After all, safety remains the key to consumer acceptance of autonomous driving.
SHARED MOBILITY ›
Autonomous mobility also enables a future of new mobility concepts, like transportation by air drone, which is not seen as an unrealistic scenario. The question is when – only one in four think that it will never become an option.
›
New transportation options, like ride-hailing networks with full autonomous cars, emerge with the continued and future development of ‘Level 5’ full autonomy, the hardware for which is already a production reality.
5
Content
ELECTRIC
CONNECTED
FUTURE MOBILITY
SHARED
AUTONOMOUS
The future belongs to electric mobility – but there is a long road ahead Diesel engines currently have a global market share of 13.5%, but are expected to be surpassed by battery electric vehicles in 2025. Currently, battery electrics only account for 1% of global car sales. Global Market Share // Passenger Cars
50%
THE RISE OF E-CARS
NEW ORDER
THE ELECTRIC FUTURE
45% 40% 35%
2025
2030
DIESEL #2
DIESEL #3
BEV Battery Electric Vehicles
30%
25%
FCEV
20%
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
15% 10%
Diesel DieselPowered Cars
5%
0%
“Diesel passenger cars currently have a global market share of ~ 13.5 %, BEV of ~ 1% and FCEV of below 0.1%. Please rate the future global market share of diesel engines, EV and FCEV across all passenger cars sold in respective year.”
7
Batteries, petrol and hydrogen are the future energy carriers There is a poor outlook for other energy carriers. Diesel, LPG and Ethanol are dead.
very poor
mixed
very good
BATTERIES (E.G. LITHIUM-ION) PETROL
THE TRIPLE PLAY OF FUTURE PROPULSION
HYDROGEN SYNTHETIC FUELS
NATURAL GAS (CNG)
DIESEL IS DEAD
DIESEL
LIQUID PETROLEUM GAS (LPG) ETHANOL (E85)
2017 Expert Panel -3
-2
-1
0
1
2
“From your point of view, how would you rate the prospects of the following energy-sources for future mobility?”
3
8
Electric car brands are winners of the emissions crisis Car brands associated with hybrid powertrains and fuel-cell technology have slightly benefited from the on-going emissions crisis. However, the overall reputation of the traditional car industry suffered from the diesel crisis.
strongly suffered
no impact
strongly benefited
TESLA STRONGLY BENEFITS FROM DIESEL EMISSIONS SCANDAL
BEST 3 NON-ELECTRIC BRANDS ► TOYOTA
► VOLVO ► HONDA
THE REPUTATION OF THE CAR
ALL OTHER BRANDS
BRANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HYBRID POWERTRAINS AND FUEL-CELL ALSO BENEFIT
INDUSTRY HAS PREDOMINANTLY SUFFERED FROM THE EMISSIONS CRISIS
FROM EMISSIONS SCANDAL
► Ø AVERAGE
2017 Expert Panel
► VOLKSWAGEN -3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
“From your point of view, how has the diesel emissions scandal affected the reputation of the following brands?”
9
Paradigm change – BEV’s climb from the bottom to the top Pure battery electric vehicles show strong momentum, while all other electric powertrain options lose favourability. Favourability of e-mobility powertrain options
PHEV Plug-In Hybrid
very good
BEV Battery Electric Vehicles
good
BEVx Battery Electric + Range Ext. mixed
FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
poor
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
2017 2017
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
“From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?”
10
Key drivers for the E-Car trend remain range, charging infrastructure, faster charging and decreasing costs E-mobility increasingly thrives on the quality of its offerings instead of regulatory requirements. Stricter emission standards, oil prices, etc. become less important in the drive toward an e-mobility future.
less important
important
very important
INCREASED RANGE ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGY (CHEAPER BATTERIES WITH HIGHER CAPACITY)
QUICKER CHARGING
BETTER BATTERIES AND CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE, CHEAPER COSTS
BETTER CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE (AVAILABILITY OF CHARGING STATIONS)
GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES
DECREASING PURCHASING COSTS STRICTER EMISSION STANDARDS HIGH OIL PRICE LOW ELECTRICITY COST
LIGHTWEIGHT TECHNOLOGIES CLEAN ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
FUN TO DRIVE NEW PLAYERS ON THE MARKET STAGNATING EFFICIENCY OF IC ENGINES INCREASED POPULARITY OF SHARED MOBILITY 0
1
“From your point of view, how much will the following factors influence the roll-out and success of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)?”
2
2015 Expert Panel
3
2016 Expert Panel
2017 Expert Panel
11
Currently, Tesla leads the electric race …closely followed by the premium brands like Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo. New Chinese players such as LeEco’s Faraday Future and LeSee, NextEV with its NIO, and the Future Mobility Corporation (FMC), as well as US startup “Lucid Motors” haven’t fully convinced experts of their electric capabilities yet. missed out
lagging behind
in the lead
#1
TESLA PREMIUM BRANDS (AUDI, BMW, MERCEDES-BENZ, VOLVO)
TOP 5 VOLUME BRANDS NEW CHINESE PLAYERS LEECO (FARADAY FUTURE & LESEE), NEXTEV, FUTURE MOBILITY CORPORATION
LUCID MOTORS
BYD - WORLD’S BIGGEST C-CAR BRAND IN TERMS OF VOLUME
BOTTOM 5 VOLUME BRANDS WORST BRAND -3
“Which brands are currently leading in terms of e-mobility?”
-2
-1
0
1
2
2017 Expert Panel
3
12
Fit for the future: Traditional OEMs still in the lead While the Top 3 premium brands are seen as best prepared for the future, Tesla is coming closer to the established players: the times of financial insecurities and big question marks for Tesla are over. NOT FIT FOR THE FUTURE AT ALL
VERY FIT FOR THE FUTURE
TOP 3 PREMIUM BRANDS AUDI (E.G. “STRATEGY 2025”) BMW (E.G. STRATEGY “NUMBER ONE > NEXT”) DAIMLER (E.G. “CASE” STRATEGY)
TOP 3 MANUFACTURER WORLDWIDE VW (E.G. “STRATEGY TOGETHER 2025") TOYOTA GM
TESLA (E.G. "SECRET MASTER PLAN, PART DEUX")
“In your opinion, how “fit for the future” would you rate the following car brands and their future strategies?”
2017 Expert Panel
13
China has acted and become the #1 market for e-mobility All other major markets show decreasing momentum, especially in Germany where the governmental incentives seem undeveloped. Favourability of e-mobility powertrain options
China very good
Japan good
USA
mixed
Germany ANNOUNCEMENT OF AMBITIOUS PLAN: 5 MILLION E-CARS IN 2020
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
2017 2017
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
“Which markets will be the key drivers for e-mobility?”
14
Breakthrough: China maintains #1 Global e-mobility leadership Electric vehicle sales in the USA recover after a slow-down in 2015. Germany is overtaken by most other European markets.
400,000 350,000
New EV registration figures by market
USA: GLOBAL E-CAR LEADER CHINA TAKES
OFF
300,000 Factor x2
250,000 200,000
150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ď † Includes: BEV, BEVx and PHEV. Does not include mild + full hybrids, motorcycles and commercial vehicles.
2016
2017
2018
15
Skepticism on success of new autonomous and electric brands New start-ups envision a fully connected, autonomous and electric future, showing similarities in their concepts.
not likely at all
mixed
very likely
NEXTEV / NIO
COMPETES IN FORMULA E TRACK RECORDS FOR AUTONOMOUS SPORTS CAR
BUILDING 280.000+ FACTORY IN NANJING
FUTURE MOBILITY CORPORATION
NO PRODUCTS YET. CREDIBILITY BONUS DUE TO DR. CARSTEN BREITFELD, EX HEAD OF BMW’S I8 VEHICLE PROGRAM, AND HIS TEAM
HIRED BMWI CORE DEVELOPMENT TEAM BACKED BY CHINESE INTERNET GIANT TENCENT AND IPHONE BUILDER FOXCONN BUILDING 300.000+ FACTORY IN NANJING
LUCID MOTORS
US STARTUP – EX ATIEVA PLANS FACTORY IN ARIZONA LEECO-FOUNDER JIA YUETING HOLDS SHARES
FARADAY FUTURE
COMPETES IN FORMULA E BACKED BY CHINESE INTERNET GIANT LEECO REDUCED SIZE OF ITS PLANNED NEVADA FACTORY TO ¼ OF THE INITIAL PLAN
LESEE • •
BACKED BY CHINESE INTERNET GIANT LEECO PLANS 400.000+ FACTORY IN ZHEJIANG AND JOINT PRODUCTION WITH FARADAY FUTURE
2017 Expert Panel -3
-2
-1
0
“In your opinion, will the following new car brands succeed with their own vehicles?”
1
2
3
16
Content
ELECTRIC
CONNECTED
FUTURE MOBILITY
SHARED
AUTONOMOUS
Connectivity has become essential in the automotive world …and a key evaluation factor for new cars.
IS CONNECTIVITY A KEY FACTOR IN EVALUATING A CAR? 2013
2016
2017
71%
78%
85%
Already/Increasingly
Already/Increasingly
Already/Increasingly
+7pp
+7pp
No
Not yet
No
Not yet
No
Not yet
[12%]
[17%]
[2%]
[20%]
[2%]
[12%]
“Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car?”
18
Connected cars enable new data-driven future business models: Is big data the new black gold? One thing is for sure: Data will become the fuel for future business models, and quite soon - half of the experts believe within the next five years. “WHEN WILL DATA BECOME THE FUEL OF FUTURE BUSINESS MODELS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?” VERY SOON
23%
49% 5 YEARS
26%
10 YEARS
21%
TWO CHINESE INTERNET
15 YEARS
GIANTS HEAVILY INVEST IN FUTURE MOBILITY START-UPS
20 YEARS
2%
25 YEARS
2%
30 YEARS
2%
19%
> 35 YEARS
0%
NEVER
5%
0%
“When will data become the fuel of future business models in the automotive industry?”
10%
20%
30%
19
USA and Japan are key markets for data-driven business models The Chinese internet giants may invest in US new mobility start-ups as they are seen as the key market for data-driven business models. reluctant
passive/conservative
proactive/aggressive
USA
USA AND JAPAN ARE SEEN AS THE KEY MARKETS FOR DATA-DRIVEN BUSINESS MODELS
Japan
Germany
China
UK
France
ARE THE USA A TESTBED FOR FUTURE DATA-DRIVEN BUSINESS MODELS?
2017 Expert Panel
Italy
Spain -3
-2
-1
0
“Which markets will be the key drivers for data-driven business models?”
1
2
3
20
Increasing consumer acceptance of “big data” applications Clear trend towards increasing acceptance of data-driven features and business models in the car industry.
mixed
high acceptance
S AFETY AND E FFICIENCY I MPROVEMENTS THROUGH “C AR-2-X” C OMMUNICATIONS USING CONNECTIVITY FOR “SAFETY” (CAR-2-CAR AND CAR-2-INFRASTRUCTURE COMMUNICATIONS) USING CONNECTIVITY TO "FIGHT CRIME" (E.G. FIND AND STOP STOLEN CARS) USING CONNECTIVITY FOR “EFFICIENCY” (CAR-2-CAR AND CAR-2-INFRASTRUCTURE COMMUNICATIONS)
(PREDICTIVE) PRODUCT A NALYTICS / R EMOTE S ERVICES USING CONNECTIVITY FOR REMOTE CAR DIAGNOSTICS
► READ
USING CONNECTIVITY FOR OTA (OVER THE AIR) CAR (SOFTWARE) UPDATES
► WRITE
PREDICTIVE PRODUCT ANALYTICS / CAR-2-OEM ► E.G. CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF WEAR & TEAR COMPONENTS
► ANALYSE
DECREASING ACCEPTANCE
(PREDICTIVE) C ONSUMER A NALYTICS THE SMART, PERSONALIZED CAR THROUGH CONTEXT AWARE SOFTWARE AND LEARNING ALGORITHMS PREDICTIVE CONSUMER ANALYTICS ► E.G. INSURERS USING DRIVING-CHARACTERISTICS DATA TO TWEAK POLICIES
DECREASING CONTROL OVER ”OWN“ BEHAVIOR DATA.
PREDICTIVE CONSUMER ANALYTICS ► LOCATION BASED CROSS-SELLING
… + FAR AWAY FROM “CLASSICAL”
PREDICTIVE CONSUMER ANALYTICS ► BEHAVIOUR BASED CROSS-SELLING
AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS MODEL
-1
0
1
2
2016 Expert Panel
3
2017 Expert Panel
“Car data = big data = big interest. This opens up new opportunities for car manufacturers not only for a better customer experience, but also for re-selling data, e.g. to the insurance industry. How would you rate consumer acceptance for the following "connected car" featur es?”
21
Data applications stand and fall with privacy and security Data security and privacy is increasingly becoming a purchasing criterion in the car industry.
ALREADY/INCREASINGLY 49%
NOT YET 49%
NO 2% http://www.machinetomachinemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CONNECTED-CAR.jpg
“Is data privacy and security a purchasing criterion?”
22
Smartphone integration is the key infotainment feature The most important infotainment feature – smartphone integration – means a cooperation with Google (Android) and Apple (iOS), who together have more than 99% Global market share for smartphones (operating systems). mixed
important
very important
S MARTPHONE INTEGRATION A UDIO FEATURES ( E .G. BLUETOOTH AUDIO STREAMING, WEB RADIO, SATELLITE RADIO, USB-AUDIO INTERFACE) N AVIGATION SYSTEM ( E.G. ALSO FOR SAFETY INTERACTION WITH PREDICTIVE ROUTE-DATA, ETC.)
HEAD-UP DISPLAY WEB ACCESS (E.G. APPS, WEB-BASED TRAFFIC INFORMATION AND INFOTAINMENT, ACCESS TO SEARCH ENGINES) VOICE CONTROL PERSONALISATION
THROUGH LEARNING ALGORITHMS AND CONTEXT AWARENESS
VIRTUAL COCKPIT / USER-PROGRAMMABLE INSTRUMENT CLUSTER COMMUNICATION
FEATURES (E.G. E-MAIL FUNCTIONALITY, COMMUNICATION APPS)
OPERATOR SERVICES (E.G. FOR RESERVATIONS, BOOKINGS, REMOTE VEHICLE DIAGNOSTICS) TOUCHPAD / TOUCHWHEEL CONVERGING OF CONNECTED CAR AND SMART HOME WEARABLES (E.G. SMART WATCH CONNECTED TO CAR) GESTURE CONTROL (E.G. RECOGNITION OF ‘SWIPING’ OR ‘POINTING’) -1
0
“Here is a list of in-car infotainment, communication, navigation and human/machine interface features. How important and desirable are the following features from your point of view?”
1
2015 Expert Panel
2
2016 Expert Panel
3
2017 Expert Panel
23
Smartphone integration brings Google and Apple into the car Duopoly: 99.6% of new smartphones run Android or iOS. Google’s (free) Android OS has reached exceptional levels of market domination, while Symbian, which had more than 60% market share ten years ago (2007), has now completely disappeared from the market. 4 out of 5 phones are running on Android
100% Global market share held by the leading smartphone operating systems in sales to end users from 1st quarter 2009 to 4th quarter 2016
Globally, every second phone sold to endusers is running on Android OS
75%
99.6% 50%
MARKET SHARE
25%
3GS
4S 5
6/Plus
5S/C
4
6S/Plus
0% Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013
ď † Statista.de: Global market share held by smartphone operating systems 2009-2016
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2017
24
Key drivers for the “digital car”: Suppliers gain momentum Google and Apple are clearly seen as technology providers, but the main push still comes from the established OEMs. Microsoft and other tech companies play a tertiary role.
passive/conservative
mixed
proactive/aggressive
OEMS THEMSELVES
Established
(E.G. TOYOTA, AUDI, TESLA, BMW, MERCEDES-BENZ)
AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
BIGGEST MOMENTUM!
(E.G. CONTINENTAL, HARMAN, DELPHI, BOSCH)
NEW AUTOMOTIVE START-UPS (E.G. FARADAY FUTURE, NEXTEV, FMC)
OTHER TECH
COMPANIES (E.G. BLACKBERRY, CLOUDCAR) -1
0
“Which companies will be the key drivers for the ‘digital car’?”
1
2015 Expert Panel
2
2016 Expert Panel
3
2017 Expert Panel
25
Content
ELECTRIC
CONNECTED
FUTURE MOBILITY
SHARED
AUTONOMOUS
Autonomous driving increasingly visible in global media 2016-2017 brings autonomous driving coverage to an all-time high due to tech shows (e.g. CES, Mobile World Congress, etc.) and individual events. Fully autonomous cars in series production are expected within the next two years. Fully autonomous driving cars in series production
Tesla Autopilot. BMW, Intel and Mobileye partnership. Apple, etc.
High
are expected by 2019
CES 2017
CES (MB, BMW, Audi, Ford)
Media visibility
Tesla CES Autopilot 2016
Breakthrough
"Self-driving cars now legal in California" CES (CNN) (Audi) Geneva Volvo Ford City Safety Intellidrive
(Volvo Pedestrian Detection)
GM announces hands-free driving Cadillac IAA Google (MB S-Class) unveils driverless car CES (Audi A7)
x8
Low
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Global media analysis of all automotive coverage (Top 25 markets – top opinion leading media. Analysis unit: message contacts)
2016
2017
2018
2019 2019
“When do you expect to see fully autonomous driving cars in series production?”
27
But is the hype already over? The once most-hated ‘Advanced Driver Assistance feature’ has turned into one of the most admired features: A steep learning curve over the last four years has changed journalists’ perceptions. Desirability of ‘Autonomous Driving’
very desirable
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
mixed
not desirable
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
2017 2017
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
EXPERT PANEL
“How important and desirable is ‘Autonomous Driving’ from your point of view?”
28
‘Level 3’ is the most desirable level of autonomous driving Each form of autonomous driving is desirable and some manufacturers are currently trying to fast forward through the race to level 5 ‘full autonomy’. This means no driver intervention is required after setting destination and starting the system. However, autonomous driving is seen as most desirable at “Level 3”. mixed
desirable
very desirable
L EVEL 0 | DRIVER ONLY (AUTOMATED SYSTEM: NO VEHICLE CONTROL) L EVEL 1 | DRIVER ASSISTANCE (DRIVER MUST BE READY TO TAKE CONTROL AT ANYTIME) L EVEL 2 | PARTIAL AUTOMATION (DRIVER RESPONDS IF THE AUTOMATED SYSTEM FAILS) L EVEL 3 | CONDITIONAL AUTOMATION (WITHIN LIMITED ENVIRONMENTS (SUCH AS FREEWAYS), DRIVER CAN SAFELY TURN THEIR ATTENTION AWAY FROM DRIVING TASKS) L EVEL 4 | HIGH AUTOMATION (AUTOMATED SYSTEM IN CONTROL EXCEPT CERTAIN EVENTS SUCH AS SEVERE WEATHER) L EVEL 5 | FULL AUTOMATION (NO DRIVER INTERVENTION REQUIRED AFTER SETTING DESTINATION AND STARTING THE SYSTEM. FULLY AUTONOMOUS)
“How desirable are the following degrees of autonomy from your point of view?”
2017 Expert Panel
29
‘Level 5’ AD-hardware has reached series production reality Tesla plans to develop a self-driving capability that is 10x safer than manual via massive fleet learning and already equips all of its cars with hardware that is capable of ‘Level 5’ autonomous driving.
“The foundation has been laid for fully autonomous, it's twice as safe as a human, maybe better” – Elon Musk › ›
All new Tesla – including Model 3 – equipped with upgraded hardware to support all levels of autonomy as of now Hardware 40x quicker than previous generation using Nvidia Titan GPU: “It's basically a supercomputer in the car” Elon Musk › › › › ›
›
›
360 degree vision, 250m of range 8 cameras, 3 front-facing 12 ultrasonic sensors Improved forward-facing radar capable of working in extreme weather conditions Question mark: No LIDAR, the light-sensitive laser imaging radar that Google, Ford, and other automakers are using to develop driverless cars
“Shadow Mode” – AD-hardware will be active on all cars, even those without Autopilot unlocked. In shadow mode, the car isn’t taking any self-driving action, but registers when it would have taken action. This enables Tesla to collect data for self-learning and AD software development. Tesla communications: “Tesla’s new Autopilot will run in ‘shadow mode’ to prove that it’s safer than human driving.” Hardware is free of charge. Software: 10,000 USD to fully unlock capabilities › Enhanced Autopilot: 6,000 USD › Full Self-Driving Capability: 4,000 USD › Available in 2-3 years according to Elon Musk. Experts disagree: 5-10 years 30
Safety is key to consumer acceptance of autonomous driving However, infrastructure and Car-to-X communications are also seen as roadblocks before autonomous driving can be fully rolled-out to the markets. mixed
challenging
very challenging
SAFETY
SAFETY IS THE KEY TO CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE
LEGISLATION (ON FEDERAL & NATIONAL
LEVEL)
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS INDUSTRY STANDARDS
FOR CAR-TO-CAR AND
CAR-TO-X COMMUNICATIONS
LEGISLATION IS THE SECOND BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO ENABLING AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
ETHICS (E.G. SYSTEM DECISION IN A CRASH SITUATION) INTEGRITY OF TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE DEVELOPMENT OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING SOFTWARE EXTRA COSTS SOFTWARE-DEVELOPMENT MUCH
DATA PROTECTION
MORE CHALLENGING THAN THE AUTONOMOUS DRIVING HARDWARE
NEW PLAYERS (LIKE GOOGLE, MOBILEYE, ETC.) SENSOR-HARDWARE (RADARS, LASERS, ETC.) NEW BUSINESS MODELS & SCENARIOS (E.G. CAR SHARING)
“From your point of view, how challenging are the following aspects to enable autonomous driving?”
2015 Expert Panel
2016 Expert Panel
2017 Expert Panel
31
Driver Assistance: Safety-features see strongest momentum New safety features have grown strongly in acceptance following technological improvements.
mixed
important
very important
Brake Assist Systems Strongly safety-related
Top 4
Blind Spot Detection
Adaptive Cruise Control Pre-Crash Systems
“Systems became much better in recent years”
Pedestrian Detection Intelligent Lights Automated Crash Reporting Lane Keeping Systems Traffic Sign Recognition Attention Assist Park Assist
Nightvision Systems 0
“How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?”
1
2
2013 Expert Panel
2014 Expert Panel
2015 Expert Panel
3
2016 Expert Panel
2017 Expert Panel
32
Content
ELECTRIC
CONNECTED
FUTURE MOBILITY
SHARED
AUTONOMOUS
“Shared Mobility” – an ignored trend? Shared mobility has been ranked last in The World Car Trends survey since 2012. Nevertheless, the topic seems to be slowly gaining momentum.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
#1 #2 #3
#3
#4
#4
SHARED MOBILITY
#5 #6 #7
#7
#7
#7
#7
“What are the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015 / 2016?”
34
Future technologies are paving the way for new players ‌ as well as new business models in the automotive sector.
New competitors Connected Mobility
New business models
Future Technologies
E-Mobility
ď‚ľ PRIME Insights
Shared Mobility
35
Autonomous transportation opens up new mobility concepts Transportation by air drone is not seen as an unrealistic scenario – only one in four think that it will never become an option.
“WHEN WILL TRANSPORTATION BY AIR-DRONES BECOME A REALISTIC SCENARIO?” VERY SOON
0%
5 YEARS
10%
10 YEARS
14%
54% 15 YEARS
14%
20 YEARS
17%
25 YEARS
5%
30 YEARS
5%
> 35 YEARS
10%
NEVER
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
“When will transportation by air-drones become a realistic scenario?”
36
Autonomous driving also enables new future mobility concepts While taxi air-drones are seen as the least realistic future mobility concept, autonomous ride-hailing is seen to have strong future prospects. very poor
mixed
very good
RIDE-HAILING NETWORKS WITH DRIVERS (E.G. UBER, LYFT) STATION-BASED CARSHARING TRADITIONAL CAR OWNERSHIP MODEL RIDE-HAILING NETWORKS WITH FULL AUTONOMOUS CARS
FREEFLOAT CARSHARING TRADITIONAL CAR RENTALS
AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY CONCEPTS
PRIVATE CARSHARING (E.G. VIA APPS) TRADITIONAL TAXI SERVICE TAXI AIR-DRONES
“From your point of view, how would you rate the future prospects of the following mobility and ownership concepts?”
2017 Expert Panel
37
Contact
PRIME Mainz (Germany) PRIME Oxford (UK) PRIME Ann Arbor (USA) PRIME Zurich (Switzerland)
PRIME New York (USA)
PRIME Shanghai (China) PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India)
PRIME São Paulo (Brazil)
Dr. Rainer Mathes
Bernd Hitzemann
Jens Meiners
PRIME Research Chairman mathes@prime-research.com
PRIME Research Project Director hitzemann@prime-research.com
World Car Awards Director Steering Committee World Car Awards jmeiners@hearst.com