Policy Center
16, 2023
G.
William Hoagland Bipartisan
February
The Federal Budget & Defense Spending
Total Budget Surplus/Deficit
FY 1965-2025
Pre & Post - Covid 19
Recession as announced by National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2022 to 2032. Congressional Budget Office; May 2022
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2020 to 2030; February 2020 (Pre-Covid)
Surplus Deficit Trend Actual
6 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 7 4 7 5 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 00 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 -4000 -3600 -3200 -2800 -2400 -2000 -1600 -1200 -800 -400 0 400 Total Budget Surplus/Deficit Year D o l l a r s i n B i l l i o n s Post-Covid Trend Pre-Covid
Projections WWW.BIPARTISANPOLICY.ORG
Budget Outlook
FY 2017 – 2032
(In Billions of Dollars – % of GDP) 2017 Actual 2018 Actual 2019 Actual 2020 Actual 2021 Actual 2022* 2023 …2032 % ∆ annual 2022-2032 Receipts 3,316 3,330 3,462 3,420 4,047 4,896 4,890 6,662 + 3.2% Spending 3,982 4,109 4,447 6,552 6,822 6,273 5,874 8,915 + 4.3% Deficits % of GDP 665 3.5% 779 3.9% 984 4.6% 3,132 14.9% 2,775 12.4% 1,377 5.6% 984 3.8% 2,253 6.1% +8.0% NA Public Debt % GDP Debt Subject Limit % GDP 14,665 77% 20,209 105% 15,750 78% 21,475 106% 16,803 79% 22,687 107% 21,017 100% 26,901 122% 22,284 99.6% 28,401 130% 24,173 97.9% 30,637 128% 25,193 96.0% 31,777 121% 40,213 109.6% 45,370 123% + 5.2% +4.0% Source: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook 2022-2032. May 2022. * Preliminary. Monthly Budget Review , CBO October 11, 2022. Adjusted by $426 billion reflecting the long-term costs of student debt forgiveness. CBO estimate of nominal GDP growth increase 4.0 % annually 2022-2032.
Federal Debt Held by the Public
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, May 2022.
185 % 98 % 106 % Average 1975- 2008 = 36% 59%
Federal Spending Projected for 2032
“Other Health Programs” includes: Health insurance subsidies, exchanges, and related spending; Department of Defense MedicareEligible Retiree Health Care Fund (including TRICARE for Life); Children’s Health Insurance Program, and other programs.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022-2032. May 2022.
Medicare $1,584B (18%) Defense $998 B (11%) Medicaid $789 B (9%) Social Security $2,175 B (24%) Other Mandatory Spending $ 777 B (9%) Domestic Discretionary $1,262 B (14%) Agriculture $16 B (0.2%) Net Interest $ 1,194 B (13%) Other Health Programs $94 B (2%) $8,915 billion
Defense Spending : as a Share of the Economy Projected to Decline
Changes in Defense Discretionary Funding: 2021 to 2022
Billions of Dollars
Drawdowns $49 Billion Security Packages for Ukraine
FY 2021 – FY 2023 (in millions of $s)
Sources: Dept. of State and Defense press releases through January 19, 2023; Congressional Research Service, January 26, 2023
