Nordic Action for Climate Friendly Energy Use and Efficiency Ylva Nilsson
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1. The challenge Global resource constraints and climate concerns demand substantial shifts in the economy across production, distribution, and use of energy resources. Energy efficiency improvement offers the greatest potential in the short term for energy saving and emissions reduction and are therefore vital if global climate goals are to be reached. At the same time, energy efficiency is a winner for everyone with investments paying back in lower energy prices. Above any other, this is the area where the much spoken of “lowest hanging fruit” are to be found. Yet, the energy efficiency improvements are not happening at the speed that is required. A midtermreview last year of EU plans to reduce energy consumption by 20% by the year 20201, disclosed that at the current pace, the European reduction of energy consumption will go no further than to 9%. The EU has followed up the findings by requiring that “indicative” national goals of energy efficiency are set by each member country. When it comes to energy efficiency, there are great opportunities ahead for the Nordic countries and this is true for all of the three sectors that each account for roughly a third of total energy consumption: Industry, buildings and transport. The Nordic countries have the highest household consumption of energy of all OECD countries. Nordic industries are among the most energy intensive in the world. Reducing energy and GHG emissions from transport in the Nordic countries is proving to be a struggle.
Energy efficiency represents a major challenge for the Nordic countries but also an enormous untapped potential.
2. Nordic Energy Patterns The energy intensity of the Nordic economies (measured in terms of energy consumption per unit of GDP) has remained above the OECD average since the mid-1980s reports IEA2, largely owing to overall increases in industrial activity, to the high concentration of energy-intensive industries (e.g. metals and pulp and paper) and the substantial petroleum industry.
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Saving in primary energy consumption, compared to projections before the agreement on the climate and energy targets for 2020. 2
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA 2013.
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Industry is only part of this development. Total energy consumption in the Nordic region has increased by 17% since 1990. The largest increases in final energy consumption were seen in the transport and commercial buildings sectors, each with a 30% increase in energy consumption over the past 20 years. Although there have been improvements in energy efficiency in Nordic households where for example isolation has helped reduced consumption in space heating and new technology has lowered the energy use of large electrical appliances, the gains have been partly offset by the increased size of dwellings as well as increased use of electrical appliances and central heating. The direct climate impact of reduced electricity use is limited in the Nordic countries as electricity to a large extent is derived from renewable sources, although any saved electricity could potentially be exported and replace fossil fuel power generation on the European continent. In Norway for example, energy use in buildings represented only 5 percent of GHG emissions in 2010, mostly from fossil fuels used directly in heating.
2.1 Smarter energy use Energy efficiency encompasses using the right energy and using it right. Smart energy use has two important aspects: converting energy use to renewable sources, and using available energy resources smarter. The first aspect includes for example switching from oil heating to district heating, switching from a gasoline car to an electric car, and increasing the use of biomass in industrial reduction processes (conversion and end-use). The second implies less total consumption for the same level of economic activity (reduced energy intensity). Technology development enables smarter energy use in both aspects and can underpin important business opportunities. R&D on a grand scale is imperative if the Nordic countries are to remain wealthy and developed nations. To undertake this on a Nordic level is to the advantage of all, as has been demonstrated by the “Nordic Energy Research”, “Nordic Innovation” and “Nordforsk”.
3. Buildings and Households Nearly 60% of all energy used in Nordic households is used for space heating. 13% is used for the heating of water. Worth noting is that this is a sector where the owners are more numerous than in other categories and therefore tend to have fewer resources and less competence at their disposal to make informed decisions or to take a systematic approach to energy efficiency as opposed to professional owners. Policy action in this area is therefore vital to make changes, as is finding ways to competence sharing.
3.1 Private house owners So far, subsidies and public campaigns have convinced house owners to improve energy efficiency through better isolation and change of windows. Also, air source heat pumps (defined by the EU as renewable) that greatly reduce energy needs for heating have in a decade or so become very common in the Nordic countries (most of all in Sweden, 3
world leader in terms of market share). In 2011, over 70% of the total world-wide of new solar installations were European. Sweden has more than its Nordic neighbours taken up this trend with a doubling of its solar energy production underpinned by a government subsidy regime. Several energy companies have followed this up by introducing a buy back-regime for house owners´ surplus energy. With half the population of Sweden, Norway produces a little over half as much solar power as its neighbor and little is being done to increase output. Finland has even less. Even so, Sweden´s solar energy production is minimal by comparison, only about 0.06 percent of Germany’s output. “Smart metering” to help consumers identify in detail and subsequently reduce their use of energy is being introduced all over Europe and the Nordic countries have been dubbed “dynamic movers” in the field for rolling out the availability nationwide (with Finland ahead of its Nordic neighbours).3 Still, the recent introduction in Sweden of the right for every household to obtain from their energy supplier an hourly measurement was not highly publicized and attracted only scant interest in its first few months of existence. As of 2014, all European energy companies will be required by EU to have their end-users reduce consumption by 3% which should open up a market for new initiatives. That reducing energy consumption in households may be possible even without large investments has been demonstrated in Brazil. The country draws almost 90% of its power from hydropower. During a period of severe droughts, the government in 2001 enforced rationing of consumption by 20% in the Southeast and Midwest regions to avoid black outs, including fines. The households in the regions lowered their consumption by 28% during the period of restrictions but also kept their new habits. Between 2002 and 2011 the consumption of electricity in these regions stayed 14% lower than in the rest of the country.4
3.2 Near-zero energy buildings From a technical point of view, there is strictly no reason why buildings should need any special heating systems if designed and built properly. Combined with the new opportunities of renewable energy, most houses should in the future be near-zero energy or “passive houses”. The Nordic countries could become important actors in the budding industry of passive houses. The climate and economic development has made good housing standards a characteristic part of Nordic development and the benefits of improving a building instead of using more energy for heating has been more obvious here than in countries with a warmer climate. 3
“Smart Regions – Promoting best practices of innovative smart metering services to European regions”. Intelligent Energy – Europe 4 http://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/temporary-interventions-and-new-consumption-habits-guest-post-byfrancisco-costa
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Nordic government can help this new market along by updating and strengthening building norms. Norwegian studies indicate that the extra construction cost when raising the ambition level from conventional housing to passive house need not be bigger than 5-10%, depending on standards selected. Passive houses are already on the market throughout the Nordic countries and the prices have consequently started falling. So far, low energy houses´ share of new production is very low (7% of the Swedish market in 2010) and the growth is expected to be slow over coming years. One reason for this is that building nearzero buildings require skills not generally available in the Nordic construction industry today. The EU project “Build up Skills” that all Nordic countries take part of, provides an excellent format for addressing the need to strengthen competence by way of a thorough mapping of the sector and analysis where efforts must be directed.
Policy suggestions The technology to build energy efficient exists but old construction standards and norms hamper the development. They would need to be adapted. The Nordic countries would benefit greatly from using the result of the EU exercise “Build up skills” and steer their efforts of competence building accordingly.
3.3 Renovate and Isolate European as well as Nordic climate goals will not be met if waiting for passive houses to gain larger markets shares. Strong efforts must also be put into improving energy efficiency in existing buildings. The EU introduced in 2009 the obligation for every building to carry an energy declaration. These should be put to better use as they can easily form a solid basis for an exercise in energy saving. Also, recently introduced EU directives are pushing member countries to do more. As of 2014 Member States will be required to renovate 3% of the total floor area of "heated and/or cooled buildings owned and occupied by their central government" in an energy efficient way. This would apply to buildings of more than 500 m² and as from July 2015, of more than 250 m². Only in Sweden, in order to reach the Swedish goal of halving total energy consumption by 2050, close to 2 Million apartments will need energy efficiency improvements. Investments required are in the order of 25 to 50 Bn per year. The numbers would be similar for the other Nordic countries. The costs can be substantially lower if intelligent planning of future renovation includes energy efficiency measures. Renewable energy technologies have improved their economic performance dramatically in the last five years which means that vast new economic opportunities have opened up to the building and construction industries to utilise in particular solar energy technologies. 5
This and other technological trends in renewable energy and energy efficient construction are the area of expertise of several Nordic Centres of Competence, in particular the SINTEF Byggforsk and NTNU in Trondheim. Nordic Built is another initiative to accelerate the development of sustainable building concepts, initiated by the Nordic ministers for trade and industry that permits Nordic companies to compete, excel and become show cases of best practice.
Policy suggestion Encouraging common Nordic R&D is a good way to avoid double work and to lower costs. But the Nordic efforts that do not always reach the market where they could make an impact. Policy action to market and publicize the outcome under a strong Nordic brand that stands for high quality and the latest technology could help.
3.4 District heating An international study co-financed by the European Commission confirms the possibility of cutting 400 million tons of CO2 emissions yearly with through more district heating across 32 European countries. District heating saves energy through its heating in a centralized location before distributing to many users. Also, on average over 80 per cent of heat supplied by district heating originates from renewable energy sources or heat recovery (i.e. from electricity production or industrial processes) which makes it not only energy efficient but climate friendly as well while providing industries with an extra source of income. While district heating in Europe has an average market share of 10 percent, in the Nordic countries (except for Norway) the market shares are well over 30 percent and in Sweden over 50%. The Nordic countries have developed different ways of using electric resistance heating. Within an integrated electricity market, these differences are not economically optimal. Denmark, with an electricity supply traditionally based on fuels, as a result has furthered efficiency by using very little electricity for heating while instead using the cooling water from electricity production to heat houses via district heating grids. Norway, on the other hand, relying on hydropower, tends to use electric resistance heating as the dominant source of heating. The rapid growth of district heating in the Nordic countries is expected to slow down in coming years, due partly to market saturation in Sweden, Denmark and Finland. District heating will also be of no great benefit to passive houses or low energy buildings that should become more common in the future. There are nonetheless new opportunities ahead. A recently introduced EU directive demands of Member States to carry out and notify to the Commission a "comprehensive assessment", by December 2015, of the scope for applying highefficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling. For the purposes of this assessment, Member States would need to carry out a cost-benefit analysis - a proposal introduced 6
by MEPs - covering their territory based on climate conditions, economic feasibility and technical suitability. This constitutes possible export openings of technology as well as of Nordic know-how. Another opportunity lies in the fact that the costs of renewable electricity, in particular wind and solar technologies have dropped dramatically in recent years. One may expect the relative share of electricity supply from these technologies to increase and change the pattern of the electricity price. Instead of prices mainly being set by changes in demand electricity prices will be set by changes in supply, generating opportunities for district-heating systems to balance fluctuating and unpredictable electricity production. In an innovative step, the Finnish company Fortum introduced �Open district heating� in Stockholm, offering to buy waste heat not only from large industries but from anyone who can deliver heat in the distribution area. The avoided cost of Fortum is published and used to calculate the compensation to suppliers. Denmark, pioneering in planning for an electricity system with 50% wind energy, has discovered the opportunity of again using electricity for heating when electricity prices are lower than the cost of fuel.
Policy suggestions Learning from best practice in district heating could significantly improve energy efficiency in the Nordic industry. There are often institutional barriers and traditions blocking development of the efficient solutions. National energy agencies can assist, co-operating in updating databases of energy performance of relevant products, and activities to provide for exchange of experience between committed companies within the same sector.
4.Industry and global competitiveness Energy efficiency is important for the society as such for meeting global climate challenges. But it may soon demonstrate also to be of imperative importance for the competitiveness of the Nordic industry. Shrinking energy resources worldwide are changing the parameters. Industries in China, Russia and in the United States have access to cheap coal and gas while industries in the Nordic countries are today among the most energy-intensive in the world. In Finland, Sweden and Norway, forest, metal and chemical industries together account for 75 to 80 per cent of the industry´s total electricity consumption. In Finland and Sweden, paper and pulp industries consume roughly half of the total electricity used in primary and manufacturing production, while in Norway the same is true for metal and mineral industries. Denmark has a less energy-intensive industry with a high share of food and agriculture production. The energy mix has changed with the introduction of bio fuel and district heating which has also 7
helped lowering industry´s GHG emissions. But total energy use in the Nordic industry has stayed roughly the same for several decades with fluctuations due mainly to periods of economic downturn or the weather. 4.1 Smart energy Nordic industry will need to cut in half the share of fossil fuel in its energy use, to below 20%, if Nordic climate goals are to be achieved, according to the IEA.5 Efforts to use biomass as an alternative to fossil resources are being explored. In addition to conversion to clean sources and lowering energy intensity, smart energy use in industry can also include innovative use of byproducts within industry clusters, as illustrated by the industrial ecology modeled by Kalundborg, Denmark. In the Kalundborg cluster, complementary participants exchange materials and energy for mutual benefit, on the basis that by-products from one business can be used as low-cost inputs by the others. Taking use of solar energy constitutes in itself a way to lower demand on energy resources. In 2010 NORUT (Northern research Institute) published simulations showing that certain sunny Nordic regions could produce about as much energy as fair-weathered Freiburg in the south of Germany.6 When carried out in real life in a solar installation in Piteå, the simulations showed to have been too conservative. Finland has the largest grid-connected solar power plant in the Nordic countries, on the roof of an ABB factory. The 181 kilowatt (kW) solar power system drives the factory at Pitäjänmäki, in Helsinki, Finland. The electricity it generates is used for charging the batteries of the factory’s fork lift trucks, and for cutting energy consumption peaks. The IEA has identified large scope for expanding use of solar energy in industry in the Nordic countries. Industrial processes such as low- and medium-temperature heat in such processes as washing, drying agricultural products, pasteurization and cooking offer enormous potential for solar heating technologies and could supply up to 20% of total global industrial demand for low temperature heat by 2050.
Policy suggestion Developing solar energy in the Nordic countries would require more R&D on photovoltaic technology but most of all policy support to make sure the technology is carried out in life.
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Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA 2012
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http://investinpitea.wordpress.com/2012/11/14/piteenergi-och-norut-i-framgangsrikt-samarbete-kring-solenergi/
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4.2 European influence The European market for CO2 emission rights, the EU-ETS, is naturally steered towards obtaining fewer emissions but has also led European and Nordic industries to making an effort to reduce energy use as a means to reduce emissions. However, with the European price for emission rights falling due to an abundance of rights on the markets, one cannot rely on the system to produce further positive effects on energy efficiency. The EU is also introducing a requirement for all large enterprises to undergo regular energy audits, with the ambition to inspire to further energy efficiency improvements. These audits will start within three years of the directive's entry into force (summer of 2014) and be carried out every four years. 4.3 Nordic efforts In the Nordic countries, efforts to enhance industry energy efficiency have gone via voluntary agreements in Finland to engage companies in efficiency work, in the Norwegian industry ENOVA is providing support to demonstrating new technologies while Sweden has carried out the “Program for Energy Efficiency” in the Energy Intensive Industry, PFE, with remarkable success. PFE provides the industry with a reduced tax on electricity if the firms implement so-called energy management programs and implement the economical energy efficient measures that are identified during the program period. Under the guidance of the Swedish Energy Agency companies had to identify in detail how they used energy and to look for profitable opportunities to reduce electricity consumption. When procuring new equipment they had to avail themselves of the best technology on offer unless they could demonstrate that the life cycle cost of a less energy efficient alternative was lower. The technics used were spread to all companies involved in the program. The European Commission allowed the program under state aid rules. Initially, PFE was expected to reduce electricity consumption by 2% or 0.6 TWh of the involved industries. The required investments were to be commercially profitable, which was interpreted as a cost of less than 2 SEK/annually avoided kWh. The final report of the first stage disclosed that annual electricity saving of 1.4 TWh had been achieved after investing only 0.6 SEK/annually avoided kWh. Thus opportunities had existed to reduce electricity consumption by some 5% with a payback time of 1-2 years. Launching a Nordic “PFE”, adding the experiences gained in the other Nordic countries, could prove very useful.
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Policy proposals: A future Nordic PFE should be designed as a voluntary agreement with a strong focus on technological progress and innovation and by offering tax reduction for developing new technology. A mechanism should be developed for transferring knowledge to all participating companies. A PFE on the Nordic stage would greatly benefit from Nordic national energy agencies cooperating in updating databases of energy performance of relevant products and facilitating an exchange of experience between committed companies with similar interests.
5. Transport Transport is responsible for around a third of Nordic greenhouse gas emissions which is a higher number than the European average (around a quarter). Road transport consumes 70% of total energy use within the sector and contributes 36% of total CO2 emissions (50% in Sweden). While emissions from other sectors generally are falling, transport emissions have increased 36 per cent since 1990 along with an increase of 260% of energy use since 1960. To reach the overall climate targets, a major overhaul of the transport system in the Nordic countries may well be unavoidable. Energy efficiency as such cannot do a great deal about the emissions – a switch to other fuels is necessary. But by becoming more energy efficient, the transport sector can make a strong contribution. There are several ways to mitigate CO2-emission from transportation; reduce transportation needs, increase transportation efficiency and switch to renewable fuels and electrification. It would require significant infrastructure investment in high speed trains, regular rails, and battery charging infrastructure so as to scale up electric vehicles and cleaner public transport. A Nordic Transport Solution, could reduce the transaction costs for the countries involved, improve results and increase the possibilities of reaching climate targets and take them even further – towards a fossil free Nordic transport sector by 2030.
5.1 Electrical vehicles World wide the technological race is on to produce cars that demand less fuel but the climate effects from road transport are so big that without a big breakthrough for electrical cars, the transport sector will most likely not be able to meet the climate challenge. Electric vehicles emit no tailpipe CO2 and other pollutants such as NOx, NMHC and PM at the point of use and operate with less noise and vibration. The single largest challenge at the moment is the reliability and durability of batteries and super-capacitors. R&D in this field is on the way in several of the Nordic countries as well as elsewhere in Europe, with the EU commission supporting a Europewide electromobility initiative, Green eMotion. The aim of the initiative is to exchange and develop know-how and experience in selected regions within Europe as well as facilitate the market roll-out of electric vehicles in Europe. 10
The Nordic countries are currently well placed to take a lead in the field of electric cars but it will not happen without strong, common policy action. 5.1.1 Tax and harmonization A barrier for most people interested in buying an electrical car is the price. A harmonized Nordic vehicle registration tax along the lines of to the French Bonus-Malus model would be sufficiently important in size to create a strong push for greener vehicles. That would entail an emissions based sales tax (Malus) added for cars with emissions over a certain “neutral” threshold coupled with tax returns (Bonus) for cars emitting less than the threshold. Yet another way of taxing CO2 emissions could become the push factor for car buyers to choose EVs: The tax would then be based on GPS based tracking device – already widely used in the transport industry - that pinpoints the exact amount of time a car spends in, for example, cities as opposed to the countryside, or in congested traffic as opposed to slow traffic hours. It would then serve as a tool for car drivers to regulate their driving with the climate effects in mind, or if the tax was at the right level, promote the use of electrical cars so as to avoid the tax. One other obvious barrier for potential buyers is the lack of charging infrastructure, particularly for rapid charging. The EU has recently set a European technical standard for charging infrastructure which will avoid the obvious danger of every country going for their own national standards. Here, a Nordic harmonization in the field of mapping and information, so that transborder EV usage is simplified, would be timely. Several regional projects already link different parts of the Nordic countries but more is needed to form the basis for a truly joint approach to the electrification of road transports. Electric roads for heavy transports should be considered for areas where trucks mainly cover short distances, such as the mining industry in Sweden and Finland, as well as on the most heavily used segments of high roads, where train may not be an option. Cold weather is one of the biggest problems for EV`s and their equipment. The Arctic climate and weather conditions in the Nordic countries constitutes a strong competitive advantage when it comes to EV´s. The opportunity for testing EV´s under cold weather conditions is of the utmost importance for all potential producers. Sweden and Finland are already providing testing opportunities for most car producers and should develop competence in testing EVs as well. Norway has experience in building EV´s. Denmark is well on the way to becoming a testing market for hydrogen cars. The Nordic countries also have outstanding expertise in scrapping cars that could be expanded to EV`s. A joint effort here would also put the Nordics on the map for many related services.
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5.2 Reducing the need for transport by car Rail carries today no more than 10% of freight in Denmark and Norway, 25% in Finland. This is significantly lower than most other European countries where it tends to carry 50% (as it does in Sweden). Passenger transport by rail is also much lower in comparison to the world average. Several Scandinavian regions supported by the EU, have recently launched the “Scandinavian 8 million City Initiative” investigating the possibility for a high speed train in 2030 connecting the triangle Copenhagen-Gothenburg-Oslo-Stockholm. An upgrade of high speed rail services for freight would be part of the project. This initiative should be supported by all Nordic countries and if possible speeded up. The Nordic countries are surrounded by water. The Nordic infrastructure must also include high speed biofuel/LNG ferries between the Nordic countries. This requires more research as the technology is not really in place. 5.2.1 Reduced commuting Work commuting is responsible in all Nordic countries for the main part of total passenger car travel. All initiative to support public transport will lessen the demand for transport related energy. Carpooling should also be encouraged. Several municipalities in the Nordic countries have come a long way in changing the citizens commuting habits through a plethora of initiatives such as “Copenhagen Bicycle City”, Stockholm´s Rush-Hour-Tax and Oslo´s free parking and prioritized lanes in rush hour for electrical vehicles. A specific study should be commissioned to find the most relevant and cost-effective measures to reduce commuting needs. The result and “best practices” discovered should be widely publicized. 5.2.2 Freight Green corridors that enable large-scale and long-term transport solutions through an attractive infrastructure and supportive regulatory framework can go a long way towards achieving energy efficiency and climate goals. Several such initiatives are underway in the Nordic countries. These should be prioritized and coordinated so as to create true Nordic “green” transport corridors where E85, ED95 (ethanol for trucks and buses), CNG/BNG and LNG is available. 5.3 Public procurement Public procurement can contribute to the launching and the availability of new technology in greener vehicles and cleaner fuels. The process can be further sped up by a joint Nordic public procurement initiative (within the EU rules), especially in areas where none of the Nordic countries have gotten very far, such as liquefied gas for cars and buses, biofuel-/electrically powered trucks and biofuel or LNG for the shipping industry.
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6. Suggestions for Policy Action on Nordic level
A Nordic brand for Energy Efficiency should be established by the Nordic Council that implies the latest technology and highest quality and can be used to market and export Nordic products and know-how.
Public procurement should be adapted so as to take account of the energy aspect, thus allowing the public sector to play a greater role in launching new technology. A common method of analysis will be needed to calculate the cost of a product over its lifespan instead of the price at the moment of buying.
The Nordic countries should take a lead in the industry of passive houses. Construction standards and norms must be updated to set off a trend towards the building of more lowenergy-houses. These standards could be progressively strengthened. R&D efforts in energy efficient construction must be better coordinated and best practices spread. The affordability and energy benefits of passive houses should be widely publicized.
Energy declarations of buildings should become the basis for planning of further energy efficiency improvements. The national energy agencies should develop manuals for such planning and provide to house owners.
With banks hesitating to provide credits, a Nordic credit risk fund for energy efficiency improvement measures of housing should be set up.
A Nordic “best practice” network and database for electrical district heating should be initiated by national energy agencies.
A Nordic PFE should be initiated – a voluntary agreement with a strong focus on technological progress and innovation by offering tax reduction for developing new technology. A mechanism would transfer knowledge to all participating companies.
A Nordic “best practice” network and database for industrial efficiency should be initiated.
A Nordic Program for Energy Efficiency adapted to smaller companies and industry with a lower energy consumption including an economic incentive and compliance surveillance should be initiated.
A harmonized Nordic vehicle registration tax would help a transfer to electrical cars. This could be an emissions based sales tax (Malus) added for cars with emissions over a certain “neutral” threshold coupled with tax returns (Bonus) for cars emitting less than the threshold.
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A tax on CO2 emissions based on GPS based tracking device could pinpoint the exact amount of time a car spends in cities as opposed to the countryside, in congested traffic as opposed to slow traffic hours and thus serve as a tool for car drivers to regulate their driving with the climate effects in mind.
A Nordic harmonization could be launched in the field of mapping and information, so that transborder EV usage is simplified.
The Nordic industry should take advantage of the harsh climate and be encouraged to develop competence in testing EVs as well as hydrogen cars.
An outstanding Nordic expertise in scrapping cars could be expanded to EV`s which would also put the Nordics on the map for related services.
The 8 Million Cities initiative to build high speed rail connections for passengers and freight between the Scandinavian capitals should be supported by public funds in all concerned Nordic countries.
The Nordic infrastructure must include high speed biofuel/LNG ferries between the Nordic countries. Investment in research on climate friendly fuels for shipping must be carried out.
Nordic “green” transport corridors for heavy transport where E85, ED95 (ethanol for trucks and buses), CNG/BNG and LNG are widely available, should be prioritized and coordinated between the Scandinavian countries.
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