Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Operating Reserves Working Rainy Day Funds Spending Reductions Cashflow Management Temporal Balance
Y20
FY21P
Y21P
Cumulative Utah Jobs Gains
Cumulative Utah Job Gains 450 400 350 450 300 400 250 350 200 300 150 250 100 200 15050 100 0 50 0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
804
6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Y21P
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ue at Risk Value at Risk
168
20
U.S., 3.6% U.S., 3.6% Utah, 2.5% Utah, 2.5%
Jan-10 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jan-20
0.0% 2.0%
$894 $932
Rainy Day Funds Revenue Enhancement Rainy Day Funds Revenue Enhancement Operating Reserves Working Rainy Day Funds
Cumu 45 Cumu 40 45 35 45 40 30 40 35 25 35 30 20 30 25 15 25 20 10 20 15 5 15 10 105 5
$803 $1,000 $800 $932 $894 $932 $1,000 $684 $894 $803 $800 $600 $528 $542 $570 $684 $803 $800 $469 $420 $684 $600 $400 $528 $542 $570 $600 $469 $528 $542 $570 $245 $294 $420 $469 $400 $200 $420 $400 $245 $294 $294 $200 $0 $245 $200 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P $0 $0 Governor’s Source: Utah Office of Management Budget andFY18 Utah Office the P FY21P FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15and FY16 FY17 FY19 ofFY20 FY11 FY12 FY13and FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P Legislative Analyst Cash -Fiscal funded Buildings Roads Cash - funded Buildings and Roads $1,000 Cash - funded Buildings Buildings andand Roads Cash-funded Roads
Utah 10.0% Utah a 8.0% 10.0% 10.0% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
$804 $1,000 $800 $741 $713 $1,000 $804 $800 $600 $554 $741 $713 $804 $800 $455 $473 $741 $713 $401 $554 $600 $400 $600 $554 $455 $473 $263 $401 $455 $473 $400 $128 $161 $200 $401 $400 $263 $49 $161 $263 $200 $0 $128 $200 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P $128 $49 $161 $49 $0 $0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20PP FY21PP FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Utah Office of the Unemployment Insurance Legislative Fiscal Analyst Trust Fund Balance Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance $1,200 Insurance Trust Fund Balance Unemployment
$1,168
$1,122 Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund February Balance $1,073 $1,007
Utah andand U.S. U.S. Unemployment Rates 10.0% Utah Unemployment Rates 8.0% 10.0%
1,168
+ 410K jobs
Utah and U.S. Unemployment Rates
$804
FY21P
+ 410K jobs
Jan-10 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jan-20
932
Cumulative Utah Job Gains
thousands thousands
$932
Economic Volatility
Source: Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst
Rainy Day $1,000 Rainy Day
thousands thousands thousands
Rainy Day Funds Revenue Enhancement
$1,168 $1,000 $940 $1,200 $1,122 $1,168 $1,073$1,122 $1,200 $820 $1,007 $800 $1,000 $940$1,007$1,073 $657 $1,000 $820 $940 $600 $800 $820 $493 $800 $459 $657 $352 $400 $657 $600 $293 $493 $600 $459 $200 $352 $493 $400 $459 $293 $352 $400 $293 $0 $200 $200 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 $0 $0 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Utah Leads Together
Utah
Value at Risk Value at Risk Value at Risk
thousands
Rainy Day Funds
$ millions $ millions $ millions
168
Cumu
Rainy Day
Utah’s Fiscal Toolkit
$ millions $ millions $ millions
Y21P
to support the economy and mitigate impacts to critical public services like education, public safety, transportation, and public health and social safety-net programs. Utah and U.S. Unemployment Rates Utah’s official rainy day funds (budget reserve and disaster 10.0% recovery accounts), “working” rainy day funds (cash appropriated 8.0% for buildings and roads that can be replaced with borrowing), and 6.0% unemployment insurance trust fund balance were at record levels U.S., 3.6% at4.0% the beginning of 2020. These reserves are in addition to 2.0% immediately available options like reprioritizing current budget Utah, 2.5% 0.0% allocations and drawing on operating reserves. The fiscal toolkit diagram below shows state budget experts’
recommended sequencing of resource use in an economic downturn. The temporal budget balance (matching ongoing expectations with more reliable revenue sources and using one-time windfalls for spending of limited scope) is the first resource that should be tapped; formal rainy day funds are the last. At the national level, the Federal Reserve continues to take immediate and aggressive monetary policy action to encourage economic activity, preserve liquidity, and protect the financial system. The U.S. government is enacting significant fiscal policies to assist individuals, businesses, and state and local governments. This data appendix includes an accounting of Utah’s reserve funds and federal monetary and fiscal policy, which are important elements in Utah’s economic recovery, as of the latest accounting on April 15, 2020. Portions of these balances are encumbered, which will be reflected in future reports.
$ millions $ millions $ millions
804
+ 410K jobs 350 300 Between 2009 and 2020, Utah and the nation experienced the 250 longest, sustained economic expansion in history. Utah created 200 150 over 100400,000 jobs, and unemployment dropped to a historic low. 50 used this time to build up significant reserves that can help Utah 0
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
Y21P
450 Fiscal 400 and Economic Measures
Value at Risk
932
Data Appendix C
Cumulative Utah Job Gains
