C: Fiscal and Economic Measures

Fiscal and Economic Measures

Between 2009 and 2020, Utah and the nation experienced the longest, sustained economic expansion in history. Utah created over 400,000 jobs, and unemployment dropped to a historic low. 0 Utah used this time to build up significant reserves that can help to support the economy and mitigate impacts to critical public services like education, public safety, transportation, and public health and social safety-net programs.

Utah’s official rainy day funds (budget reserve and disaster recovery accounts), “working” rainy day funds (cash appropriated for buildings and roads that can be replaced with borrowing), and unemployment insurance trust fund balance were at record levels at the beginning of 2020. These reserves are in addition to immediately available options like reprioritizing current budget allocations and drawing on operating reserves.

The fiscal toolkit diagram below shows state budget experts’

thousands 200 250 300 350 400 450 + 410K jobs recommended sequencing of resource use in an economic downturn. The temporal budget balance (matching ongoing expecta100 150 tions with more reliable revenue sources and using one-time 50 windfalls for spending of limited scope) is the first resource that should be tapped; formal rainy day funds are the last. At the national level, the Federal Reserve continues to take immediate and aggressive monetary policy action to encourage Utah and U.S. Unemployment Rates economic activity, preserve liquidity, and protect the financial 10.0% system. The U.S. government is enacting significant fiscal policies 8.0% to assist individuals, businesses, and state and local governments. 4.0% 6.0% U.S., 3.6% This data appendix includes an accounting of Utah’s reserve funds and federal monetary and fiscal policy, which are important 2.0% Utah, 2.5% elements in Utah’s economic recovery, as of the latest accounting 0.0% on April 15, 2020. Portions of these balances are encumbered, which will be reflected in future reports.

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20

Utah’s Fiscal Toolkit

Value at Risk Rainy Day Funds Revenue Enhancement

Operating Reserves Working Rainy Day Funds Spending Reductions Cash ow Management Temporal Balance

Source: Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Economic Volatility

Cumulative Utah Job Gains Cumulative Utah Jobs Gains

450 Cumulative Utah Job Gains 100 150 200 250 300 350 400thousands 200 250 300 350 400 450 thousands 50150 1000

50 0

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Utah and U.S. Unemployment Rates Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14Jul-14 Jan-15Jan-15 Jul-15Jul-15

+ 410K jobs

+ 410K jobs

Jan-16Jan-16 Jul-16Jul-16 Jan-17Jan-17 Jul-17Jul-17 Jan-18Jan-18 Jul-18Jul-18 Jan-19Jan-19 Jul-19Jul-19 Jan-20Jan-20

10.0% Utah and U.S. Unemployment Rates Utah and U.S. Unemployment Rates 8.0%10.0% 6.0%8.0% 4.0%6.0% 2.0%4.0%

U.S., 3.6%

Utah, 2.5% U.S., 3.6%

0.0%2.0%

0.0% Jan-10Jan-10 Jul-10Jul-10 Jan-11Jan-11 Jul-11Jul-11 Jan-12Jan-12 Jul-12Jul-12 Jan-13Jan-13 Jul-13Jul-13 Jan-14Jan-14 Jul-14Jul-14 Jan-15Jan-15 Jul-15Jul-15 Jan-16Jan-16 Jul-16Jul-16 Jan-17Jan-17 Jul-17Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Utah, 2.5% Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20Jan-20 Rainy Day Funds Rainy Day

$1,000Rainy Day Rainy Day

$ millions$ millions$ millions $800 $1,000 $1,000 $600 $800 $800 $400 $600 $600 $200 $400 $400 $0$200 $200 $245 $294 $245 $245 $294 $294 $420 $420 $420 $469 $469 $469 $528 $528 $528 $542 $542 $542 $570 $570 $570 $684

$684 $684 $803

$803 $803 $894 $932 $894 $894 $932 $932

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P

$0 Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Utah Office of the $0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P Legislative Fiscal Analyst Cash - funded Buildings and Roads FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P

$1,000Cash - funded Buildings and Roads Cash-funded Buildings and Roads Cash - funded Buildings and Roads

$ millions$ millions$ millions $800 $1,000 $1,000 $741 $713 $804

$600 $800 $800 $400 $600 $600 $554

$200 $400 $400 $128

$0$200 $200 $0 $0 $49 $161 $263 $401 $455 $473

FY11 $128 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P $49 $161 $263 $401 $554 $455 $473 $741 $713 $804 $128 $49 $161 $263 $401 $554 $455 $473 $741 $713 $804

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21P

Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Utah Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst FY21P

$459 $293 $352 $493 $657 $820

$940$1,007$1,073$1,122$1,168 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $ millions Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund February Balance $400 $200 $459 $0 $293 $352 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20

$493 $657 $820

Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance $ millions $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $459 $293 $352 $940$1,007$1,073$1,122$1,168 $200 $493 $657 $820

Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance $ millions $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $940$1,007$1,073$1,122$1,168 $400 $200 $0 $0 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury