2015 Southern Football Guide Bowl Preview by Gorilla Marketing

EDITOR’S

LETTER CHARLIE MILLER

A generation ago, there were four games on New Year’s Day and only a handful of earlier bowls, which left fans clamoring for more. Television executives quickly realized the insatiable appetite for college football, and bowl games sprang up everywhere. Now there are 38 games in addition to the three playoff tilts that determine the national champion. College football bowl season has always been one of the special times of the year. The sport wraps up the end of the season in a unique way like no other sport can. With the playoff system currently in place, fans can celebrate a championship won on the field, and not in a computer. And at the same time, student-athletes of 76 other teams can commemorate their accomplishments with the kind of reward that no other sport can offer. Kids not playing for the national championship are enjoying trips to places like Honolulu, the Bahamas, Orlando and San Diego. Some kids will have the opportunity to play in Yankee Stadium. These experiences create lasting memories for student-athletes celebrating a year of hard work. So, whether your favorite team is playing in Montgomery, El Paso, Las Vegas, Boise or Pasadena, we hope you find this guide handy. Enjoy the games! Charlie Miller SOUTHERN FOOTBALL GUIDE

Gorilla Marketing, LLC • Marietta, GA 30062 • 770-675-7200 Jason Martin, Partner Charlie Miller - Editor / Writer Michael Bourgault - Sales “It’s a jungle out there!”

Photo Credits: Jon Barash, Rob Saye, Mike Dunn, University of Nebraska SID, Navy Sports Department, LSU Athletic Department, Mississippi State Athletics, FSU Sports and Information, Clemson Athletics, University of Tennessee, Florida Athletic Department, University of Arkansas Sports and Information Department, Flickr Creative Commons

2015-16 Bowl Preview

TABLE OF CONTENTS

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL

21 POPEYES BAHAMAS BOWL

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL

60 GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL

8 ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL

23 SHERATON HAWAII BOWL

42 RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL

62 OUTBACK BOWL

10 RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL

24 ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

44 NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL

46 ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL

66 VIZIO FIESTA BOWL

ZAXBY’S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL

48 BIRMINGHAM BOWL

68 ROSE BOWL GAME

CURE BOWL

12 R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL 13

MIAMI BEACH 30 NEW ERA 50 PINSTRIPE BOWL BOWL

15 FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

BELK BOWL

52 FRANKLIN 32 CAMPING AMERICAN WORLD INDEPENDENCE MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL BOWL

34 16 MARMOT BOCA RATON BOWL

FOSTER FARMS BOWL

54 HOLIDAY BOWL

BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL

70 ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL 73 TAXSLAYER BOWL

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL

18 SAN DIEGO CO. CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL

36 MILITARY BOWL

56 CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL

73 VALERO ALAMO BOWL

20 GODADDY BOWL

38 QUICK LANE BOWL

105 MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL

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THE MATCHUP

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Gildan New Mexico Bowl University Stadium | Albuquerque, NM Dec. 19, 2015 2:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

ARIZONA WILDCATS

NEW MEXICO LOBOS

6-6 (3-6 Pac-12) Coach: Rich Rodriguez

7-5 (5-3 MWC) Coach: Bob Davie

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 15 Passing 32 Rushing 18 Scoring 20

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 80 Passing 122 Rushing 9 Scoring 62

Defense National Ranking Total 114 Passing 116 Rushing 89 Scoring 106

Defense National Ranking Total 98 Passing 87 Rushing 97 Scoring 64

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–5 50 1-4 58

+5 108 0-0 105

THE MATCHUP Fans in Albuquerque will certainly be treated to an offensive show. The New Mexico Lobos will show off their running game against a porous Arizona defense. Likewise, the Wildcats should be able to run and throw with success. Expect the crowd and intangibles to favor the Lobos.

Rich Rodriguez has taken the Wildcats to a bowl in each of his four years in Tucson. Arizona punter Drew Riggleman was named to the second team. A double-overtime win against Utah, ranked No. 10 at the time, qualifies as the highlight of 2015 for the Wildcats. The offense has not been a problem this season, averaging 6.3 yards per play. But QB Anu Solomon, who missed the Arizona State game with a head injury, is questionable. Freshman Brandon Dawkins will most likely get the call. He threw for 305 yards against Arizona State and ran for 78. As prolific as the offense is, ball security is a problem. The Wildcats were –9 in turnovers in the nine Pac-12 games. Defensively, the Wildcats have a great deal of work to do. They yielded 440 yards or more in all but one Pac-12 game, and gave up 45 points or more in five of them. Key Stat: Arizona has three players with as many as 691 yards rushing and four players with more than 500 yards receiving making it difficult for opponents to prepare for the Wildcats’ offense.

The Lobos didn’t play any teams currently ranked in the top 35, but played eight bowl teams, defeating three of them. Wins over Boise State and Air Force highlight the season. There are no secrets to the Lobos’ offense. It’s run, run, run. Quarterback Lamar Jordan has 672 yards on the ground and only 935 through the air. Jhurell Pressley scampered for 845 yards and 11 scores, and Teriyon Gipson managed 766. The Lobos attempted just 208 passes this season. Their opponents completed 208. Key Stat: The Lobos were very good on fourth down this season. Offensively, they converted 15 of 19 tries (79%). The defense was able to stop opponents on 14 of 21 attempts (67%).

NEW MEXICO

ARIZONA

Prediction: New Mexico by 7

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Sam Boyd Stadium | Las Vegas, NV Dec. 19, 2015 3:30 p.m. EST - ABC

BYU COUGARS

UTAH UTES

9-3 Coach: Bronco Mendenhall

9-3 (6-3 Pac-12) Coach: Kyle Whittingham

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 44 Passing 21 Rushing 108 Scoring 35

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 85 Passing 100 Rushing 43 Scoring 57

Defense National Ranking Total 36 Passing 50 Rushing 42 Scoring 31 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+7 68 0-2 36

Defense National Ranking Total 41 Passing 97 Rushing 6 Scoring 31 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+8 26 3-2 24

THE MATCHUP Of course, the big story out of Provo is how the team will handle the surprising departure of head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who took the Virginia job. Mendenhall, in his 11th year at BYU, will coach the bowl, but there is certain to be distractions for both coaches and players as they prepare for the Utah Utes. With the uncertainty surrounding the next coach, the current assistants are in full-blown job search mode, and may not prepare and game plan as thoroughly as they might otherwise. Having said that, often it’s times like this that can really galvanize a team. Fortunately for the Cougars, their 3,000-yard passer Tanner Mangrum is still around. He completed 62.1% of his throws and tossed 21 touchdown passes. Algernon Brown is the leading runner with the modest total of 697 yards. Mitch Mathews and Devon Blackmon are the top receivers. The exciting playmakers on defense are Kai Nacua, who returned two of his six interceptions for touchdowns, and Bronson Kaufusi, who has 17 tackles behind the line.

Kyle Whittingham’s charges have shown they have staying power in one of the best conferences in the country. Defensively, the Utes stop the run about as well as any team. Defensive lineman Lowell Lotulelei is one of three All-Pac-12 performers on the defense. Linebacker Gionni Paul is the leading tackler and contributed 12.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, four interceptions and recovered three fumbles. Defensive back Marcus Williams is the third Ute named all-conference. For three years, the Utes have been able to flip the field with regularity. Punter Tom Hackett was named all-Pac-12 punter for the third consecutive year. Offensively, the Utes rely on their ground attack. However, running back Devontae Booker, who ran for 1,261 yards and 11 touchdowns is out with a knee injury. Travis Wilson completed 62.4% of his passes in a conservative passing game, that might have to open up a bit with Booker sidelined. Wilson is also the team’s second-leading runner with 466 yards and six scores.

Key Stat: When the Cougars allow 150 yards rushing, they are 1-3. When holding opponents to fewer than 150 yards, the Cougars are undefeated (8-0).

Key Stat: The Utes forced three or more turnovers in six games, winning all six.

UTAH

BYU

The Las Vegas Bowl really couldn’t have asked for a better matchup. BYU and Utah are bitter rivals that haven’t met since 2013. The two have played 89 times as major colleges since 1922. But that history matters only to fans and the media. The only thing important to the current players will be the guys lining up across from them. Utah will miss running Devontae Booker, who suffered a knee injury in the Arizona game. While Utah typically likes to run the ball, we could see some adjustments to include more drop-back passing. BYU is all about putting the ball in the air. And that could spell trouble for a Utes’ secondary ranked 97th nationally against the pass. Prediction: BYU by 14

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Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Cramton Bowl | Montgomery, AL Dec. 19, 2015 5:30p.m. EST - ESPN

OHIO BOBCATS 8-4 (5-3 MAC) Coach: Frank Solich

APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS 10-2 (7-1 Sun Belt) Coach: Scott Satterfield

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 46 Passing 49 Rushing 45 Scoring 75

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 26 Passing 89 Rushing 6 Scoring 19

Defense National Ranking Total 49 Passing 54 Rushing 54 Scoring 51

Defense National Ranking Total 12 Passing 18 Rushing 28 Scoring 13

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+5 107 0-0 93

THE MATCHUP

+2 137 0-1 61

Ohio earned bowl eligibility for the seventh consecutive season. The offense limped home a little, losing two signal-callers to injury. Derrius Vick, the starter for most of the season injured his ankle against Bowling Green and hasn’t played since. Coach Frank Solich is hoping to have Vick back for the bowl game as well as injured second-teamer J.D. Sprague. Greg Windham will be ready to go and all three are likely to get some snaps. Regardless who is under center, running back A.J. Ouellette will look to get the ground game going. He has 642 yards for the season, 261 came in the final three games with Vick sidelined.

The longtime power at the I-AA/FCS level made the jump to FBS in 2014 and the transformation certainly has been successful. The Mountaineers find themselves in a bowl game in only their second year at this level. Appalachian State, with its potent spread offense, had little trouble winning in the Sun Belt. At least until Nov. 5 when Arkansas State came to Boone and defeated the Mountaineers 40-27, handing App State its only conference loss. Marcus Cox is the leading rusher with 1,261 yards. Three other runners have 385 yards or more, including quarterback Taylor Lamb, who has 385 yards rushing and 2,263 yards through the air. He tossed 29 touchdown passes and only eight picks. Ronald Blair is the most prolific playmaker on defense.

Key Stat: Ohio doesn’t hurt itself often. The Bobcats fumbled just seven times this season, losing only three.

Key Stat: Kicker Zach Matics is a serious weapon. He is perfect on 13 kicks from inside 52 yards, including a 50-yarder and two from 51 yards.

APPALACHIAN STATE

OHIO

Ohio fans are accustomed to bowl trips, having made five in the past six years. But the idea of bowl games may be foreign to Appalachian State fans. They may understand the idea of a playoff much better since Appalachian State was a regular in the FCS(I-AA) playoffs for several years. The Bobcats’ defense may be able to contain the Mountaineers’ running game to some degree, but App State will eventually get its points. One key to this game will be how well Ohio’s offense can move the ball with a questionable quarterback situation. Prediction: Appalachian State by 10

Cure Bowl Orlando Citrus Bowl | Orlando, FL Dec. 19, 2015 7:00p.m. EST - CBS

GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS 6-6 (5-3 Sun Belt) Coach: Trent Miles

SAN JOSE STATE 5-7 (4-4 Mountain West) Coach: Ron Caragher

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 34 Passing 8 Rushing 124 Scoring 73

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 57 Passing 56 Rushing 54 Scoring 71

Defense National Ranking Total 85 Passing 83 Rushing 76 Scoring 80

Defense National Ranking Total 44 Passing 2 Rushing 108 Scoring 78

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–1 131 0-1 112

THE MATCHUP

–5 90 0-0 100

This game offers an interesting matchup of one of the better aerial attacks in the country in Georgia State, and one of the stingiest passing defenses in the nation in San Jose State. The Spartans of San Jose have not seen an aerial show like Georgia State this season, and they don’t create turnovers.

The Panthers will throw the ball around pretty well. The trouble is, they don’t run it very well. Penny Hart has 71 catches for 1,095 yards through the air. Robert Davis has 60 catches for 979 yards. The Panthers have thrown 467 passes and given up 29 sacks. No player has as many as 400 yards on the ground. Key Stat: The Georgia State defense has been successful taking the ball away from opponents. The Panthers have created at least one turnover in every game this season. They have intercepted at least one pass in every Sun Belt game.

The San Jose State Spartans won just four games against FBS competition, yet here they are testing their mettle in a bowl game. The Spartans played seven bowl teams and defeated one, New Mexico. San Jose State is balanced offensively, led by All-MWC running back Tyler Ervin. He gained 1,469 yards and reached paydirt 13 times on the ground. All-conference tight end Billy Freeman leads all receivers in catches (47), yards (581) and touchdowns (6). Tago Christian is the leading tackler on defense. This team doesn’t hurt itself with penalties or turnovers very often, but doesn’t create many big plays either. Key Stat: San Jose State caused just 11 turnovers this season.

SAN JOSE STATE

GEORGIA STATE

Prediction: Georgia State by 13

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome | New Orleans, LA Dec. 19, 2015 9:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES

8-4 (6-2 C-USA) Coach: Skip Holtz NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 27 Passing 15 Rushing 89 Scoring 20

9-3 (8-0 Sun Belt) Coach: Blake Anderson NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 36 Passing 76 Rushing 14 Scoring 10

Defense National Ranking Total 52 Passing 112 Rushing 9 Scoring 63

Defense National Ranking Total 67 Passing 96 Rushing 41 Scoring 83

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–2 122 0-1 78

+11 132 0-1 70

THE MATCHUP The Red Wolves’ strong rushing attack will test the Bulldogs’ front seven, the strength of their defense. If the Wolves can wear down the La Tech defense, Arkansas State could have a strong second half. Expect Tech’s Jeff Driskel to avoid throwing toward ballhawk Rocky Hayes. Time of possession may actually be a factor in this game. Whichever offense can effectively tire the opposing defense will have a distinct advantage.

The Bulldogs used an exciting passing attack to finish second in Conference USA’s West division. Tech hosted Southern Miss in the regular season finale, which was essentially a West division championship game. Coach Skip Holtz loves his offense, featuring Jeff Driskel at quarterback. He threw for 3,575 yards and 24 touchdowns. His favorite target, Trent Taylor, caught 89 passes for 1,133 yards. Carlos Henderson is the Bulldogs’ talented deep threat. Kenneth Dixon rushed for 968 yards and found the end zone 17 times. The Bulldogs have some playmakers on defense in Bryson Abraham, who returned three interceptions for touchdowns. Defensive end Jaylon Ferguson, a redshirt freshman, is a beast. He made 14 stops behind the line, six of them sacks, and is credited with seven quarterback hurries. Key Stat: Tech has proven to be a first-half team. The Bulldogs outscored opponents 277-136 in the first half, but were outscored 169-154 in the second half.

Arkansas State has played in the four previous GoDaddy Bowls, and now will change venues to New Orleans for their fifth consecutive bowl appearance. The Red Wolves lost three of four non-conference games to begin the season before reeling off eight straight Sun Belt wins to capture the conference title. Arkansas State loves to run the ball with Michael Gordon getting the lion’s share of the carries. He has 1,070 yards this season and averages 6.5 yards per carry. Warren Wand will play a role as well. He has 643 yards and averages better than six yards per attempt as well. The secondary is a real strength on defense. Rocky Hayes leads the way with six interceptions. Key Stat: Arkansas State has intercepted at least one pass in 11 consecutive games.

ARKANSAS STATE

LOUISIANA TECH

Prediction: Arkansas State by 3

Miami Beach Bowl Marlins Park | Miami, FL Dec. 21, 2015 2:30 p.m. EST - ESPN

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS

8-4 (6-2 American Athletic) Coach: Willie Taggart

11-2 (8-0 C-USA) Coach: Jeff Brohm

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 43 Passing 105 Rushing 11 Scoring 40

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 10 Passing 6 Rushing 88 Scoring 4

Defense National Ranking Total 37 Passing 61 Rushing 33 Scoring 23

Defense National Ranking Total 60 Passing 82 Rushing 50 Scoring 54

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+8 74 0-2 53

+16 104 0-1 40

THE MATCHUP This could be the Willie Taggart Bowl since the coach is responsible for building the Western Kentucky program before settling in at South Florida. The Bulls like to control a ground game and the Hilltoppers enjoy a good air show. Western Kentucky has too many weapons in the passing game for the Bulls to cover. But if South Florida can grind out a few long drives for touchdowns—not field goals—the Bulls have a chance. Preventing Western’s quarterback Brandon Doughty from finding his rhythm would be huge. Prediction: Western Kentucky by 12 The Bulls can run the ball well and defend

The Hilltoppers are all about putting the

the run, two ingredients for success in most

ball in the air, although the offense is more

leagues. Marlon Mack has 1,273 yards rush-

balanced than most prolific passing teams.

ing with eight touchdowns. Quarterback Quin-

Conference USA MVP Brandon Doughty

Flowers is also a nice thrower, completing 61.1% of his passes for 2,023 yards. He has 21 touchdown strikes and only eight picks. Opponents have trouble running the ball and finding the end zone against South Florida. Auggie Sanchez is the leading tackler. Eric Lane makes big plays behind the line (11 tack-

threw for 4,594 yards and 45 touchdowns. He was also very efficient, completing 71.8% and throwing just seven picks. Running back Anthony Wales had 986 yards rushing and teammate D’Andre Ferby chipped in with 604 and 11 touchdowns. Taywan Taylor is the number one target among receivers. He caught 79 balls for 1,363 yards and found the end zone 17 times. Four receivers

les for loss), and Jamie Byrd is a playmaker

caught seven or more touchdowns for the

all over the field. He has 10 stops behind the

Hilltoppers. T.J. McCollum, with 11.5 tackles

line, three picks, two forced fumbles and one

for loss and an interception, is the leading

recovery.

tackler.

Key Stat: South Florida held five opponents

Key Stat: Western Kentucky outscored op-

to fewer than 100 yards rushing this season.

ponents by 19 points a game.

WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTH FLORIDA

ton Flowers has run for 883 and 10 scores.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium | Boise, ID Dec. 22, 2015 3:30 p.m. EST

AKRON ZIPS

UTAH STATE AGGIES

7-5 (5-3 MAC) Coach: Terry Bowden

6-6 (3-5 MWC) Coach: Matt Wells

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 98 Passing 96 Rushing 67 Scoring 99

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 92 Passing 88 Rushing 70 Scoring 60

Defense National Ranking Total 16 Passing 88 Rushing 3 Scoring 27

Defense National Ranking Total 21 Passing 14 Rushing 51 Scoring 64

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+8 121 0-1 99

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

0 3 0-2 71

THE MATCHUP This game certainly shapes up to be a defensive struggle. Both teams keep the score down and play a field position game. Terry Bowden likely has some trickery up his sleeve to jumpstart the Zips’ offense, and that could be a difference. If Utah State can find any rhythm on offense, advantage Aggies. Utah State is probably a little more battle-tested, but not as healthy. Prediction: Utah State by 2 Yes, there will be a Bowden coaching in a

Because of injuries and ineffectiveness, the

bowl game once again. Terry’s Akron team

Aggies have played through a little quar-

since 2005. Uncharacteristic of a Bowdencoached team, defense comes first in Ak-

Kent Myers and Chuckie Keegan have split

ron. Jatavis Brown is a three-time All-MAC

most of the time. Both will likely see time in

selection and was named 2015 MAC Defen-

the bowl game. Devante Mays has been a

sive Player of the Year. In addition to leading the team in tackles, Brown led the MAC with

AKRON

terback roulette this season. Sophomore

17 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. The Zips

consistent runner with 842 yards and nine scores. Hunter Sharp has been the favorite

are especially tough to run against. Akron’s

target of both quarterbacks with 60 catches

offense is triggered by quarterback Thomas

and 746 yards. Nick Vigil leads the team in

Woodson who passed for 2,034 yards and ran for 553. Conor Hundley led the rushing attack with 883 yards and 10 scores. Imani Davis led the team with 46 receptions and

tackles and has 12.5 stops behind the line. Kyler Fackrell has 13.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.

Jerome Lane led with 750 receiving yards. Key Stat: The Zips are 0-5 against bowl teams this season and were outscored 15238 in those five games.

Key Stat: When holding opponents to fewer than 30 points, the Aggies are 6-2. When scoring 30, they are 5-0.

UTAH STATE

owns a winning record for the first time

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl FAU Stadium | Boca Raton, FL Dec. 22, 2015 7:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

TOLEDO ROCKETS

TEMPLE OWLS

9-2 (6-2 Conf) Coach: Jason Candle

10-3 (7-1 American Athletic) Coach: Matt Rhule

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 29 Passing 41 Rushing 26 Scoring 26

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 94 Passing 72 Rushing 90 Scoring 52

Defense National Ranking Total 51 Passing 107 Rushing 11 Scoring 24

Defense National Ranking Total 18 Passing 38 Rushing 21 Scoring 16

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+7 86 1-0 43

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+4 79 0-2 45

THE MATCHUP Head coach Matt Campbell was named Mid-American Conference Coach of the Year for 2015, then promptly resigned to accept the head coaching job at Iowa State. Offensive coordinator Jason Candle was almost immediately named head coach and will assume those duties for the bowl game. The Rockets feature a solid attack on offense. Running backs Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson share the load. Hunt had 894 yards and 10 touchdowns and Swanson added 870 yards and seven scores. Quarterback Phillip Ely spreads the passing attack across three primary receivers. Corey Jones had 52 catches for 535 yards. Cody Thompson caught 33 for 706 yards and Alonzo Russell also had 33 receptions and gained 586 yards. Jones was also named all-conference as a punt returner. Offensive lineman Storm Norton, defensive lineman Orion Jones and defensive back Cheatham Norrils all received first team honors.

A decade ago did we ever think Temple

Key Stat: The Rockets lost just four fumbles this season and the offensive line allowed only four sacks.

Key Stat: Temple converted 41.3% of third

would appear in a bowl guide? Believe it. To put that in some perspective, the Owls won 10 games this season. From 2002-06, the program won a total of just eight games. Head coach Matt Rhule has this team believing in itself. The running game rests squarely on Jahad Thomasâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; shoulders. He has 1,257 yards rushing with 17 TDs. No one else has 200 yards on the ground. P.J. Walker triggers the passing game. He has 2,737 yards through the air with 19 TDs and seven picks. Defensively, opponents must account for Tyler Matakevich on every play. He has 15 tackles for loss, including 4.5 sacks, and five interceptions.

downs and held opponents to just 31.4%.

TEMPLE

TOLEDO

Two former MAC rivals will meet for the first time since 2011. Both teams feature stingy defenses that should rule the day. Turnovers and special teams will likely play a huge role in deciding this one. Temple has blocked five punts this season, which could be a factor in the punting game. Toledo has been especially sound with ball security. Expect a low-scoring affair that will go down to the wire. Prediction: Toledo by 3

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San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Qualcomm Field | San Diego, CA Dec. 23, 2015 4:30 p.m. EST

BOISE STATE BRONCOS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES

8-4 (5-3 MWC) Coach: Bryan Harsin

8-5 (6-2 MAC) Coach: Rod Carey

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 18 Passing 19 Rushing 52 Scoring 16

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 45 Passing 64 Rushing 29 Scoring 42

Defense National Ranking Total 24 Passing 67 Rushing 13 Scoring 26

Defense National Ranking Total 68 Passing 78 Rushing 64 Scoring 55

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+8 93 1-0 51

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

+3 96 0-1 76

Boise State is one of three schools with a 1,300-yard receiver and 1,200yard rusher joining Baylor and Bowl-

BOISE STATE

ing Green. This offense can be dominating. Jeremy McNichols has 1,244 yards rushing with 18 touchdowns. Thomas Sperbeck is the leading receiver with 82 catches and 1,334 yards. The defense has been sound against the run. The Broncos have allowed only three opponents to rush for more than 138 yards (Utah State 177, New Mexico 195 and Air Force 328). Key Stat: Boise State has forced a turnover in every game this season.

Unfortunate injuries may have cost Northern Illinois a legitimate shot the MAC title this season. Quarterback Drew Hare was injured in the ninth game against Toledo and missed the remainder of the season. Backup Ryan Graham, who had thrown just five passes up until Hare’s injury, took over and engineered wins over Buffalo and Western Michigan. Graham suffered a leg injury against Ohio and coach Rod Carey turned to freshman Tommy Fiedler, who started the MAC Championship Game against Bowling Green in the second game of his college career. Fiedler was 12-for-28 with a touchdown but was intercepted three times. The running game is the anchor of the offense behind two All-MAC linemen Andrew Ness and Aidan Conlon. Running back Joel Bouagnon was also named to the All-MAC team after running for 1,269 yards and scoring 18 times. Receiver Kenny Golladay had 71 catches for 1,122 yards and 10 scores. Three members of the defense were named all-conference, including lineman Perez Ford, linebacker Boomer Mays and defensive back Shawun Lurry, who had nine picks and 273 yards in returns, one for a touchdown. Key Stat: The Huskies totaled 21 interceptions for the season and had at least one in every game.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Boise State’s offense is balanced and explosive in many areas. The Broncos will look to break big plays early. Northern Illinois must get solid play from the quarterback position, whether that is Ryan Graham or Tommy Fiedler. If the Huskies can intercept the Broncos’ Brett Rypien, Boise State could be stymied. But stopping the Broncos on the ground and through the air is a tall task. Prediction: Boise State by 14

GoDaddy Bowl Ladd-Peebles Stadium | Mobile, AL Dec 23, 2015 8:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

BOWLING GREEN FALCONS

GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES

10-3 (7-1 MAC) Interim Coach: Brian Ward

8-4 (6-2 Sun Belt) Coach: Willie Fritz

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 4 Passing 3 Rushing 50 Scoring 5

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 53 Passing 128 Rushing 1 Scoring 32

Defense National Ranking Total 78 Passing 94 Rushing 57 Scoring 62

Defense National Ranking Total 22 Passing 39 Rushing 27 Scoring 41

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+14 83 0-1 41

THE MATCHUP

+4 115 0-2 80

The Mid-American Conference Champions are one of the most potent offensive teams in the land. But they must play their bowl game without their coach, Dino Babers, who left Bowling Green for Syracuse. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward will serve as interim for the bowl game. Former running backs coach at Texas Tech, Mike Jenks, will take over the program after the bowl game. Triggering the explosive attack is quarterback Matt Johnson, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year. He has passed for 4,700 yards and 43 touchdowns. All-MAC running back Travis Greene has 1,219 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Roger Lewis, also an all-conference selection, leads the receivers with 1,476 yards and 15 scores on 82 catches. Gehrig Dieter has 89 receptions and 957 yards. Ronnie Moore has grabbed 67 passes for 871 yards. All-MAC linebacker Austin Valdez leads the team in tackles and has 10.5 stops behind the line and two picks. Defensive back Alfonso Mack has picked off six passes. Key Stat: Bowling Green has not attempted a field goal in the last five games.

The Georgia Southern Eagles will be perfectly happy never having to throw a pass. They managed to throw 129 times this season, or a little more than 10 per game. Really, there was no need. Matt Breida led the vaunted rushing attack with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns. Three other players had more than 600 rushing yards apiece. Defensively, Antonio Glover swiped six interceptions. Antwione Williams is the leading tackler and has 10.5 behind the line. Key Stat: The Eagles ran the ball just shy of 55 times a game this year. They rarely throw the ball, especially when the running game is clicking. They won six games this season when completing four or fewer passes.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

BOWLING GREEN

The Bowling Green Falcons love flying high, keeping the ball in the air as much as possible. Georgia Southern hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t faced an offense this explosive. The Eagles will do just about anything to keep the ball out of the air. The Falcons probably havenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t seen a ground attack quite like Georgia Southern. So both offenses pose a challenge for these defenses. Establishing offensive dominance early will likely be the determining factor here. Prediction: Bowling Green by 17

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl Thomas Robinson Stadium | Nassau, Bahamas Dec. 24, 2015 12:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS

WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS

7-5 (6-2 C-USA) Coach: Rick Stockstill

7-5 (6-2 MAC) Coach: P.J. Fleck

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 30 Passing 17 Rushing 96 Scoring 34

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 21 Passing 26 Rushing 34 Scoring 27

Defense National Ranking Total 57 Passing 93 Rushing 35 Scoring 52

Defense National Ranking Total 80 Passing 68 Rushing 86 Scoring 77

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–3 114 0-1 88

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

0 78 0-2 67

Coach Rick Stockstill has the Blue Raiders’ offense flying pretty high, slinging the ball around the field. The nexus of that explosiveness is the coach’s son, Brent. The quarterback was named Freshman of the Year in Conference USA after throwing for 3,678 yards and 27 touchdowns. He was efficient as well, completing 66.7% of his passes. Most of his throws went to either Richie James or Ed Batties. James, who caught 100 passes for 1,220 yards, was named to at least one Freshman All-America team. Batties grabbed 77 aerials for 960 yards and found the end zone 13 times. The defense can be pretty tough against the run, but can be exploited by the pass. T.T. Barber is the leading tackler and has 11.5 tackles for loss and an interception.

Western Michigan enjoys an explosive passing attack triggered by quarterback Zach Terrell. The signal-caller has 3,229 passing yards and more than 2,500 of them are to a pair of receivers. All-MAC performers Daniel Braverman (103 catches for 1,270 yards and 12 TDs) and Corey Davis (82, 1,253, 11) are dependable targets and tough to cover. Running back Jamauri Bogan was named MAC Freshman of the Year after rolling up 836 yards and 12 touchdowns. Offensive lineman Willie Beavers leads the way up front. Safety Asantay Brown is the leading tackler and has two picks. Caleb Bailey has 12 stops behind the line and corner Darius Phillips has intercepted five passes.

Key Stat: The sloppy Blue Raiders have lost a fumble in every game this season. They committed at least two turnovers in every game except the loss at Illinois.

Key Stat: The Broncos amassed 416 or more total yards of offense in all eight MAC games this season.

WESTERN MICHIGAN

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

For players, coaches and fans who have to be away from home on Christmas Eve, there are few better places to be than in the Bahamas. Aside from the balmy weather, this game features two receivers with more than 100 catches this season in Daniel Braverman of Western Michigan and Richie James of Middle Tennessee. It bears watching how the freshmen (quarterback Stockstill and his favorite receiver James) respond for the Blue Raiders. The Broncos put up better offensive numbers against better competition this season than the Blue Raiders. A few ill-timed turnovers could prove costly for Middle Tennessee. Prediction: Western Michigan by 7

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Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl Aloha Stadium | Honolulu, HI Dec. 24, 2015 8:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

CINCINNATI BEARCATS

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

7-5 (4-4 American Athletic) Coach: Tommy Tuberville

10-3 (8-0 MWC) Coach: Rocky Long

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 5 Passing 4 Rushing 47 Scoring 24 Defense National Ranking Total 84 Passing 66 Rushing 94 Scoring 88 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–16 71 0-1 60

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 79 Passing 119 Rushing 15 Scoring 51 Defense National Ranking Total 5 Passing 13 Rushing 5 Scoring 10 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

+19 113 0-0 55

Tommy Tuberville is an experienced coach at high levels and has his offense clicking on all cylinders. The Bearcats are one of the best passing teams in the nation and run the ball pretty well too. They have five players with 800 or more yards from scrimmage. Three ball carriers Hosey Williams (725 yards), Mike Boone (717) and Tion Green (697) are threats out of the backfield. Shaq Washington caught 88 passes to lead the Bearcats for 971 yards. Chris Moore (823 yards) and Max Morrison (533) play huge roles in the passing game. Quarterback Gunner Kiel threw for 2,777 yards despite missing two games. Ball security is of utmost importance and you can be sure that Tuberville spent significant time in extra practices emphasizing protecting the ball. Key Stat: The Bearcats converted on 52% of their third downs and 70% on fourth down.

The San Diego State Aztecs have a good thing going with a tough defense against the run and a powerful ground attack of their own. Donnel Pumphrey is the focal point of the potent offensive show. The junior running back ran for 1,554 yards and 16 touchdowns and is the leading receiver with 27 catches for 397 yards and another three scores. Chase Prince gets yardage as well with 940 yards on the ground. The Aztecs’ defense held opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry. Calvin Munson is the leading tackler and has 14.5 tackles for loss, including nine sacks. Damontae Kazee picked off seven passes and returned one for a touchdown. Rashaad Penny returned two kicks for paydirt this season and can turn a game’s momentum quickly. Key Stat: The Aztecs have a tendency to hurt themselves with penalties. They were penalized for 60.2 yards a game and referees stepped off 32 first downs for opponents.

SAN DIEGO STATE

CINCINNATI

Most players and coaches say publicly that they want to be in the most prestigious bowls, but many players would love to make the trip to Hawai’i as a consolation prize for not making the playoffs. This game on Christmas Eve features one of the strongest running attacks in the land versus a prolific passing game. The Aztecs can run the ball, defend the run, create turnovers and hold onto the ball. That’s a pretty good recipe. The Broncos will throw it around and create matchup problems in the secondary. The defenses that make the most effective in-game adjustments will probably come out on top, although turnovers are likely to haunt Cincinnati. Prediction: San Diego State by 11

St. Petersburg Bowl Tropicana Field | St. Petersburg, FL Dec. 26, 2015 11:00 a.m. EST

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES

MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD

6-6 (4-4 American Athletic) Coach: Bob Diaco

9-3 (6-2 C-USA) Coach: Doc Holliday

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 120 Passing 96 Rushing 115 Scoring 118

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 65 Passing 57 Rushing 69 Scoring 44

Defense National Ranking Total 33 Passing 21 Rushing 63 Scoring 17

Defense National Ranking Total 48 Passing 33 Rushing 70 Scoring 14

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+9 69 1-1 90

THE MATCHUP

+4 138 0-0 69

The Huskies bring a tough defense to the St. Petersburg Bowl, but offensively UConn struggles to move the ball with any effectiveness. Ar-

CONNECTICUT

keel Newsome is the best playmaker with the ball in his hands. He has 760 yards rushing and 432 receiving. Noel Thomas has 719 yards receiving. The stingy defense is led by Andrew Adams and Junior Joseph. Luke Carrezola is adept at getting to quarterbacks. He has 8.5 tackles for loss and six sacks with four forced fumbles. Key Stat: Connecticut was outscored by opponents by two points per game.

The Thundering Herd’s only three losses this season came on the road to three teams still practicing for their bowl games, one in triple overtime. Chase Litton triggers the passing game and completed 59.3% of his passes for 2,387 yards. Davonte Allen caught 56 of Litton’s throws for 696 yards. Deandre Reaves is the Herd’s best playmaker. He has 617 receiving yards and had three returns for touchdowns, two kicks and one punt. Evan McKelvey is the leading tackler. Gary Thompson made 11.5 stops behind the line and forced five fumbles. Key Stat: Marshall was penalized for 67.9 yards per game.

MARSHALL

De-fense! De-fense! De-fense! That’s what this game is all about. One big play on special teams, one turnover in the opponents’ red zone, one missed assignment allowing a big play could easily tip the scales in this dogfight. This promises to be a game dominated by defenses and offenses struggling to find any rhythm for sustaining drives. Prediction: Marshall by 2

Hyundai Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium | El Paso, TX Dec. 26, 2015 2:00 p.m. EST - CBS

MIAMI HURRICANES

8-4 (5-3 ACC) Interim Coach: Larry Scott

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 64 Passing 27 Rushing 117 Scoring 65 Defense National Ranking Total 76 Passing 29 Rushing 107 Scoring 83 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+13 27 0-3 44

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

8-4 (6-3 Pac-12) Coach: Mike Leach

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 22 Passing 1 Rushing 128 Scoring 47 Defense National Ranking Total 94 Passing 65 Rushing 100 Scoring 83 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

–3 49 2-2 48

The U introduced a new coach a few weeks ago in Mark Richt, the longtime coach at Georgia. Richt, who played quarterback at Miami, has returned to his roots and fans in South Florida are thrilled. But he won’t be on the sidelines in El Paso as the Hurricanes try to become the first school from Florida to win in the Sun Bowl, a game with rich history. The Hurricanes don’t appear too interested in the running game—on either side of the ball. But quarterback Brad Kaaya has thrown for more than 3,000 yards with three receivers—Stacy Coley, Rashawn Scott and Herb Waters— with more than 600 yards receiving. Key Stat: The Hurricanes lost only two fumbles in eight ACC games.

Typical of a Mike Leach-coached team, the Cougars will throw, throw, throw. Washington State launched the nation’s best passing attack with close to 400 yards per game. At the same time, they rushed for less than 80 yards a game, low enough to be last in the country. After an embarrassing loss to Portland State in the opening game, the Cougars settled in and were competitive in every game save the finale against arch-rival Washington. Leach was named Pac-12 Coach of the Year and quarterback Luke Falk, receiver Gabe Marks and offensive lineman Joe Dahl were named first team All-Pac-12. Falk completed an impressive 70.7% of his throws for a whopping 4,266 yards and 36 touchdowns. He threw just eight interceptions. Marks had 99 catches for 1,125 yards and 14 scores. Dom Williams grabbed 73 passes for 997 yards and 11 touchdowns. Key Stat: The Cougars attempted to convert 36 times on fourth down and were successful 25 times (69%).

WASHINGOTN STATE

MIAMI

Talk about a high-flying, aerial show in El Paso, this game will show off some prolific passing games, and making the matchup more intriguing is both teams defend the pass pretty well. The secondary that blinks first will lose. Expect some new wrinkles in the passing games for both teams that will keep opposing defensive coordinators guessing. Neither team will play this game conservatively, and fans will get their money’s worth for sure. One extra takeaway by Miami will be the difference. Prediction: Miami by 2

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl Cotton Bowl Stadium | Dallas, TX Dec. 26, 2015 2:20 p.m. EST - ESPN

SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES

WASHINGTON HUSKIES

9-4 (7-1 C-USA) Coach: Todd Monken

6-6 (4-5 Pac-12) Coach: Chris Petersen

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 9 Passing 12 Rushing 41 Scoring 12

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 70 Passing 54 Rushing 92 Scoring 61

Defense National Ranking Total 40 Passing 64 Rushing 34 Scoring 76

Defense National Ranking Total 28 Passing 53 Rushing 29 Scoring 12

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–2 135 0-1 74

THE MATCHUP

+6 21 1-3 28

This game is a classic case of strength against strength, the Eagles explosive offense against the tough Huskies’ defense. Southern Miss will likely test the Huskies’ secondary early with deep throws to open up a running attack. But as good as the Eagles’ offense has been, Western Kentucky held Southern Miss to its lowest offensive output in terms of yards for the season in the C-USA Championship Game. Washington will certainly study that game film. With freshmen at both quarterback (Jake Browning) and running back (Myles Gaskin), the Huskies’ offense has been a work in progress and beginning to come of age. The Huskies have

It’s all about an explosive offense on the Southern Miss campus in Hattiesburg. The unit averaged nearly 520 yards a game and seven yards per play. Quarterback Nick Mullens has thrown for 4,145 yards and 36 touchdowns. There are two 1,000-yard runners in Jalen Richard and Ito Smith. Smith also has 493 receiving yards. Michael Thomas leads receivers with 1,201 yards and 12 scores. Casey Martin has the most receptions with 74. So there are weapons aplenty. Defensively, D’Nerius Antoine is the leading tackler and also has an interception. Brian Anderson leads the charge up front with 13.5 tackles for loss. Kalan Reed has four picks and returned two for scores. Key Stat: Southern Miss is the only school with two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver.

Prediction: Washington by 11

The Huskies’ defense was among the best in the nation and kept Washington in every game. They were never blown out and three of their losses were by one possession. There were certainly some bright spots this past season, especially considering the sub-.500 conference record. Washington defeated the Pac-12 South champion USC Trojans in Los Angeles. That softened the blow of losing at home to a mediocre Cal squad. Late in the season the Huskies stubbed their toes again in a loss at Arizona State, then responded with a win over a good Washington State team. Leading the vaunted defense was leading tackler Azeem Victor who had 7.5 tackles for loss and an interception. The Huskies had two defensive backs, Budda Baker and Sidney Jones, on the All-Pac-12 team. Key Stat: The Washington offense came alive over the last five games of the season, averaging 464 yards a game. The Huskies did not reach that total in any of the first five games of the season against FBS teams.

WASHINGTON

SOUTHRN MISS

competed at a higher level all season, and that will be evident in this game.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium | Bronx, NY Dec. 26, 2015 3:30 p.m. EST - ABC

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

INDIANA HOOSIERS

7-5 (4-4 ACC) Coach: David Cutcliffe

6-6 (2-6 Big Ten) Coach: Kevin Wilson

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 40 Passing 38 Rushing 58 Scoring 55

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 16 Passing 24 Rushing 30 Scoring 23

Defense National Ranking Total 47 Passing 73 Rushing 38 Scoring 45

Defense National Ranking Total 121 Passing 128 Rushing 78 Scoring 116

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–1 67 0-1 59

THE MATCHUP

+8 55 0-4 66

Duke coach David Cutcliffe has been around some big-time quarterbacks (see Manning, Peyton and Eli) and passing attacks during his career. Now he’s coaching a dual-threat talent in Thomas Sirk, the leading rusher for the Blue Devils with 648 yards and 2,462 yards through the air. Max McCaffrey caught 48 passes for 601 yards, and his running mate T.J. Rahming has 40 receptions for 522 yards. DeVon Edwards is an exciting kick returner with three touchdowns. The Devils have a nice weapon in kicker Ross Martin who made all three of his attempts from 50 yards and beyond. Dwayne Norman and Jeremy Cash are the leading tacklers. Cash made 18 tackles behind the line and is credited with eight quarterback hurries.

Indiana averaged more than 490 yards on offense, and allowed 507 on defense, making for some exciting games. The offense is fairly balanced and quarterback Nate Sudfeld has thrown for 3,184 yards and 24 touchdowns. Three receivers have more than 45 catches and 580 yards receiving. Simmie Cobb, with 914 yards, is Sudfeld’s favorite target. Ricky Jones with 817 yards and Mitchell Paige with 589 play a huge role in the offense. Jordan Howard is the leading rusher with 1,213 yards, but is questionable for the bowl game with a knee injury. If Howard can’t go, Devine Redding, with 785 yards rushing, will fill in nicely. Offenses must account for Marcus Oliver on every play. He’s the leading tackler, has 6.5 tackles behind the line, two interceptions and has forced four fumbles.

Key Stat: Duke was +3 in turnovers in its four ACC wins this season and –5 in the four losses.

Key Stat: Bands tend to play a lot when Indiana is on the field. The Hoosiers average 36 points a game and give up 37 points per contest.

INDIANA

DUKE

It’s always enjoyable to see at least one bowl game played in inclement weather—like snow maybe—each year. Maybe this will be the year at Yankee Stadium. Both offenses will be prepared to put on a show for fans in New York, and the better defense will likely win this game. The Hoosiers will have trouble containing Duke quarterback Thomas Sirk. Indiana quarterback Nate Sudfeld will put the ball in the air, and has several capable receivers. The health of Hoosiers’ running back Jordan Howard could be a key. Turnovers may favor Indiana in this one, but Duke has better weapons on special teams. Prediction: Duke by 5

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Camping World Independence Bowl Independence Stadium | Shreveport, LA Dec. 26, 2015 5:45 p.m. EST - ESPN

TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

6-6 (3-5 American Athletic) Coach: Philip Montgomery

6-6 (4-4 ACC) Coach: Frank Beamer

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 14 Passing 11 Rushing 63 Scoring 25

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 96 Passing 71 Rushing 95 Scoring 64

Defense National Ranking Total 126 Passing 124 Rushing 119 Scoring 120

Defense National Ranking Total 34 Passing 9 Rushing 76 Scoring 47

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+2 82 0-3 97

THE MATCHUP

+6 48 0-2 46

As the game approaches, there will be more and more talk about Frank Beamer’s last game as coach at Virginia Tech. And that is sure to be emotional for him, his staff and his players. Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery is coaching in his first bowl game after turning around the Golden Hurricane program in his first season at the helm. Beamer is coaching in his 22nd bowl in the last 22 years. Tulsa will bring a prolific passing attack to the party, which will test Bud Foster’s defense. But can the Golden Hurricane stop an average Virginia Tech offense? Doubtful. The players in orange and maroon won’t allow Beamer to go out on a losing note.

The prolific offense averages more than 500 yards a game, putting up 603 yards and scoring 38 points at Oklahoma. Unfortunately, the defense also gives up more than 500 yards a game. The Hurricane spread the wealth on offense. Two running backs, D’Angelo Brewer

TULSA

and Zack Langer, rushed for more than 700 yards. Langer is a bruiser around the goal line. He found the end zone 17 times. Quarterback Dane Evans is just 42 yards shy of 4,000 for the season. He completed 63% of his throws, primarily to Kayarris Garrett, who caught 88 for 1,451 yards, and Josh Atkinson, who hauled in 65 passes for 932 yards. Key Stat: Tulsa joined SMU as the only school to give up 700 yards of offense in a game twice this season.

Frank Beamer tenure will end in a few weeks as he hands the reins over to Justin Fuente. Beamer and long-time assistant and defensive coordinator Bud Foster built Virginia Tech into a national power. Fuente has already decided that some key assistants will remain in their current roles, including Foster. That certainly will limit distractions during bowl preparations. And the players will be eager to send Beamer out a winner. The player who can affect that the most is quarterback Michael Brewer. The lefthander suffered a broken collarbone in the season-opening loss to Ohio State and missed five games. He returned to start the final five contests. Travon McMillian ran for 961 yards. Isaiah Ford caught 63 balls for 937 yards. Chuck Clark is the leading tackler for Foster’s opportunistic defense. Key Stat: Tech lost close games to Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Duke by a combined nine points.

VIRGINIA TECH

Prediction: Virginia Tech by 17

photo credit: Jon Barash

Foster Farms Bowl Levi’s Stadium | Santa Clara, CA Dec. 26, 2015 9:15 p.m. EST - ESPN

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

UCLA BRUINS 8-4 (5-4 Pac-12) Coach: Jim Mora

5-7 (3-5 Big Ten) Coach: Mike Riley

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 37 Passing 30 Rushing 71 Scoring 45

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 24 Passing 25 Rushing 46 Scoring 45

Defense National Ranking Total 71 Passing 122 Rushing 8 Scoring 75

Defense National Ranking Total 62 Passing 41 Rushing 88 Scoring 52

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–13 46 1-2 50

+1 38 1-2 26

THE MATCHUP Yes, there are 5-7 teams in bowl games this year. And this one is the only team to defeat Michigan State. Among Nebraska’s seven losses are a five-point loss to BYU, Miami in overtime, a single-point loss to Illinois, by two to both Wisconsin and Northwestern and an eight-point disappointing setback to Iowa. When Nebraska protects the ball, the Cornhuskers can be tough. But all too often turnovers plague the team. Opponents scored 86 points off of turnovers this season. Tommy Armstrong Jr. was given solid protection by his offensive line and he is adept avoiding sacks, getting caught just 13 times. However, he took a few too many risks with the ball throwing 16 picks. Jordan Westerkamp caught 63 aerials for 874 yards and seven scores. Key Stat: The Cornhuskers committed 14 turnovers in their final four games of the season (–10 TO margin).

UCLA featured a potent attack this season led by quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw for 3,349 yards and 20 touchdowns. His favorite target, Jordan Payton, caught 75 passes for 1,068 yards. Tight end Thomas Duarte caught 49 for 820 and has been especially effective around the goal line with 10 touchdowns. Paul Perkins carries the load in the running game with 1,275 yards and 13 scores. A close game could favor the Bruins because kicker Ka’imi Fairbaim is well within field goal range at the 30-yard line. He was perfect this season from inside 47 yards. He made two of five outside that distance, including a 60-yarder. One problem the Bruins had was finishing the deal. In their four conference losses they were outscored 81-49 in the fourth quarter. Key Stat: Penalties plagued UCLA this season. The Bruins were penalized 30 more times than their opponents for an average of more 23 yards per game. UCLA gave opponents 25 first downs by penalty.

UCLA

NEBRASKA

This could be a fun game for the UCLA offense. The Bruins have a potent passing game and Nebraska doesn’t defend well. But the Cornhuskers won’t panic offensively, even if they are down by a few scores. Nebraska must solve its turnover problem to have a chance. With sound ball security, the Cornhuskers will generate some points. The Bruins must not hurt themselves with penalties. The team that plays the cleanest game should come out on top. Prediction: UCLA by 5

Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps. Stadium | Annapolis, MD Dec. 28, 2015 2:30 p.m. EST - ESPN

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

10-2 (7-1 American Athletic) Coach: Ken Niumatalolo

8-4 (6-2 ACC) Coach: Pat Narduzzi NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 76 Passing 95 Rushing 49 Scoring 70

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 51 Passing 126 Rushing 2 Scoring 17

Defense National Ranking Total 27 Passing 57 Rushing 20 Scoring 49

Defense National Ranking Total 45 Passing 75 Rushing 31 Scoring 30

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+2 24 0-3 34

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

+14 5 0-2 30

The Pittsburgh Panthers certainly aren’t intimidated away from home. They were 5-1 on the road this season with the only loss at Iowa. Pitt wins the old-fashioned way, with defense and a running game. Leading the charge at running back is Qadree Ollison with 1,048 yards and 10 touchdowns. Nate Peterman is an efficient passer and rarely makes mistakes. He threw for 2,150 yards and 19 touchdowns with only five interceptions. Tyler Boyd is his top receiver. The Panthers can stop the run and force teams to beat them with the pass. They have some nice playmakers on defense. Jordan Whitehead is the leading tackler and has 5.5 stops behind the line and an interception. Mike Caprara, with 10.5 tackles for loss, and Matt Galambos with 10 typically spend some time in opponents’ backfields. Both have five sacks as well. Galambos has a pair of picks and Caprara has one.

Navy has run the triple option for a number of years and opponents haven’t been able to stop it with any regularity. The Midshipmen lost just twice this season, once to Notre Dame, No. 8 in the Sagarin rankings, and Houston, No. 27. Quarterback Keenan Reynolds is the best signal-caller to run this system at the Naval Academy. He has three seasons of 1,000 yards rushing and commands the offense with precision. He threw just 84 passes for 964 yards. Chris Swain has chipped in 847 yards on the ground and 10 touchdowns. And the Middies will not beat themselves. In 636 rushing attempts, the Midshipmen have lost just five fumbles. And the team averages just 27.2 yards in penalties.

Key Stat: Pittsburgh gave up just 105 second half points, but yielded 123 in the second quarter alone.

Key Stat: Navy does not fear fourth down. In 23 attempts, Navy has converted 21 for a 91% success rate.

NAVY

PITTSBURGH

Opponents know what to expect from Navy offensively, but the key is being able to stop all of the option reads. The extra time to prepare will help, but Pittsburgh likely won’t have anyone on the scout team who can emulate Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds. Pittsburgh has an excellent defense against typical running attacks, but this Navy attack isn’t like anything they’ve seen. Pittsburgh’s Jordan Whitehead, Mike Caprara and Matt Galambos may be the three best individual defenders Navy has seen this year, making for an intriguing matchup. It will be interesting to see what wrinkles the Navy staff introduces to its offense for this game. The Panthers don’t have an explosive attack, but the Midshipmen may have trouble matching up with running back Qadree Ollison and receiver Tyler Boyd. Prediction: Navy by 4

Quick Lane Bowl Ford Field | Detroit, MI Dec. 28, 2015 5:00 p.m. EST - ESPN2

CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

7-5 (6-2 MAC) Coach: John Bonamego

5-7 (2-6 Big Ten) Coach: Tracy Claeys

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 58 Passing 14 Rushing 126 Scoring 82

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 104 Passing 74 Rushing 101 Scoring 103

Defense National Ranking Total 17 Passing 23 Rushing 32 Scoring 33

Defense National Ranking Total 35 Passing 15 Rushing 70 Scoring 59

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+2 88 0-2 83

–4 25 0-5 65

THE MATCHUP Central Michigan owns one of the most balanced passing attacks in the MAC. Quarterback Cooper Rush has thrown for 308 yards a game and spreads the ball around to five capable receivers, each with more than 500 yards receiving. Jesse Krall, Anthony Rice, Mark Chapman, Ben McCord and Corey Willis comprise a talented quintet for the Chippewas. Martez Walker and Jahray Hayes will share carries in the backfield, although Central Michigan’s running game is an afterthought. Kevin Frazier is the defense’s leading tackler. Key Stat: The Chippewas have outscored opponents 322-265 (+57) this season, but the real advantage is in the third quarter where CMU owns a 106-31 (+75) lead.

Tracy Claeys took over the head coaching job from good friend Jerry Kill, who resigned in October due to health issues, and led the team to one win in the final five games. But those results aren’t a fair evaluation of the difficult job Claeys inherited, and after all, his opponents included Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin. All seven of the Gophers’ losses were to bowl teams. Quarterback Mitch Leidner threw for 2,478 yards and 13 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Shannon Brooks (644 yards) and Rodney Smith (596) share the load in the running game. KJ Maye is the leading pass catcher with 65 receptions for 706 yards. Jack Lynn leads the defense with 9.5 stops behind the line. Antonio Johnson is the leading tackler. Key Stat: Kicker Ryan Santoso was a perfect 7-of-7 on field-goal attempts from inside 44 yards. On kicks of 44 yards or longer, he was 4-of-8.

MINNESOTA

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Central Michigan’s passing game is unique in that it doesn’t rely on one, or even two, receivers. The Chippewas throw it all over the field making pass coverage difficult. But the Gophers held up well against some pretty good passing teams in the Big Ten this season. Minnesota’s offense can be a bit inconsistent, and if any rust from the long layoff has formed, it could take the Gophers a while to get going. Expect the Chippewas to come out of halftime and take control of the game, then battle to hang on in the fourth quarter. Prediction: Central Michigan by 4

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, TX Dec. 29, 2015 2:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

AIR FORCE FALCONS

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

8-5 (6-2 Mountain West) Coach: Troy Calhoun

7-5 (4-5 Pac-12) Coach: Sonny Dykes

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 32 Passing 123 Rushing 3 Scoring 39 Defense National Ranking Total 23 Passing 24 Rushing 43 Scoring 40

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 8 Passing 5 Rushing 85 Scoring 22 Defense National Ranking Total 110 Passing 95 Rushing 103 Scoring 88

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–3 95 0-2 75

THE MATCHUP THE MATCHUP

+2 7 1-5 34

As expected, Air Force features one of the best ground attacks in the country. Quarterback Karson Roberts makes all the reads and ran for 674 yards and nine touchdowns. Jacobi Owens toted the rock for 1,013 yards and six scores. The Falcons’ defense has had success getting to opposing quarterbacks and has a number of playmakers. Alex Hansen (15.5 tackles for loss including 7.5 sacks) and D.J. Dunn (12.5 and six) can make life miserable for offensive linemen. Weston Steelhammer not only has one of the best names in football, but is the leading tackler and has five interceptions. Key Stat: Air Force was penalized just 49 times all season, fourth fewest per game (3.77) in the country.

The Offense has certainly been the name of the game in Berkeley this year. The tandem of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Kenny Lawler received All-Pac-12 honors. Goff completed 64.2% of his passes for 4,252 yards. Lawler caught 47 for 583 yards and 10 scores. Bryce Treggs, with 41 catches for 813 yards, was one of six receivers with 36 or more receptions and 460 or more yards. Khalfani Muhammad (539 yards), Vic Enwere (486) and Tre Watson (434) shared duties in the rushing attack. There were no Bears on either the first- or second-team all-conference defense this year. Hardy Nickerson—yep, you know that name—is the top tackler. Nickerson is following in his father’s footsteps at Cal. Hardy Nickerson Sr, is a Cal Hall of Famer and 16-year pro and five-time Pro Bowler. Key Stat: Cal’s defense had 10 players with an interception this season.

CALIFORNIA

AIR FORCE

An option team like Air Force generally presents problems for bowl opponents because teams rarely see offenses like this and don’t have the personnel on the scout team to emulate all the reads. Cal doesn’t have a tough defense against the run anyway, making the Falcons’ offense an even more difficult assignment. But the toughest test will be for the Falcons’ secondary against All-Pac-12 receiver Kenny Lawler and all-conference quarterback Jared Goff. The Falcons must be persistent about pressuring Goff or the Bears will pile up the passing yards. Prediction: California by 4

Russell Athletic Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium | Orlando, FL Dec. 29, 2015 5:30 p.m. EST - ESPN

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

BAYLOR BEARS

11-2 (8-0 ACC) Coach: Larry Fedora

9-3 (6-3 Big 12) Coach: Art Briles

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 19 Passing 34 Rushing 22 Scoring 11 Defense National Ranking Total 79 Passing 26 Rushing 110 Scoring 35

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 1 Passing 20 Rushing 4 Scoring 1 Defense National Ranking Total 59 Passing 77 Rushing 52 Scoring 72 TO Margin –1 Sagarin SOS 59 Vs. Sagarin Top 30 2-2 Sagarin Ranking 11

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+8 63 0-1 12

THE MATCHUP The North Carolina Tar Heels very quietly hovered just below the final four playoff teams heading into the ACC Championship Game. But few experts believed the Heels deserved to be in the playoffs, and obviously the committee felt there were deficiencies in their resume, presumably the soft schedule, which included two FCS teams. Any hopes the Heels had were quickly squelched as Clemson rolled up more than 600 total yards against an improved Carolina defense. Larry Fedora has done a tremendous job rebuilding this program. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik completely turned the defense around, but couldn’t find an answer to Clemson’s explosiveness. UNC can be pretty potent as well with quarterback Marquise Williams. Key Stat: Included in the 608 yards UNC gave up in the ACC Championship Game were 319 rushing yards.

The Baylor Bears’ top-ranked offense is intimidating for any defense. Imagine what could have been had the Bears not gone through three quarterbacks this season. The Bears were forced to use converted receiver Lynx Hawthorne, who last took a snap in high school, to finish the recent loss to Texas. Seth Russell was the top-rated passer in the country and among the Heisman Trophy favorites when he suffered a season-ending neck injury on Oct. 24. His replacement Jarrett Stidham broke his ankle in his third start. Chris Johnson was making his second start against Texas when forced to leave the game in the first quarter with what was believed to be a concussion. Both Stidham and Johnson should be available for the bowl game, but the quarterback situation puts pressure on a proficient running game. Running back Shock Linwood scampered for 1,329 yards and 10 scores, but he is now dealing with an ankle injury. The offensive line has been terrific, allowing just 15 sacks on the season. Even with the upheaval under center, the Bears have 99 more first downs than their opponents. Key Stat: The Bears have gone for it on fourth down 34 times this season and converted 24 (71%).

BAYLOR

NORTH CAROLINA

Both Baylor and North Carolina had much higher hopes than the Russell Athletic Bowl a month ago. No disrespect to the folks in Orlando, but the Bears and Tar Heels had set their sites on the national playoff. Now this game features one of the best, most entertaining matchups of the bowl season. Baylor is dealing with some significant injuries on offense, but if the Bears are close to healthy, they should put up some huge numbers against this Carolina defense. But the Tar Heels will score as well with a balanced attack. Prediction: Baylor by 10

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium | Tucson, Arizona Dec. 29, 2015 7:30 p.m. EST - Campus Insiders

COLORADO STATE RAMS

7-5 (5-3 MWC) Coach: Mike Bobo

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 54 Passing 66 Rushing 35 Scoring 59 Defense National Ranking Total 64 Passing 20 Rushing 106 Scoring 67 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–11 101 0-0 91

NEVADA WOLF PACK

6-6 (4-4 MWC) Coach: Brian Polian

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 82 Passing 112 Rushing 28 Scoring 87 Defense National Ranking Total 65 Passing 42 Rushing 91 Scoring 67 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

+8 110 0-0 101

This is Colorado State’s third consecutive bowl appearance and Mike Bobo is the third man to coach in those games. The Rams would rather run the ball than throw it, and three runners gained more than 500 yards led by Dalyn Dawkins with 805. Quarterback Nick Stevens threw for 2,369 yards and 21 scores. Rashard Higgins caught 66 passes for 933 yards. Punter Hayden Hunt can be a real weapon. He averaged 46.3 yards a punt and landed 23 inside the 20 with only one touchback. Kevin Davis is a star on defense. The team’s leading tackler caught opponents behind the line 14 times and had one interception. Key Stat: The Rams outscored opponents 130-71 (+59) is the first quarter this season. For the rest of the game, the Rams were outscored by 23 points.

Nevada features a strong rushing attack with two runners galloping for more than 1,000 yards. James Butler has 1,153 yards and Don Jackson 1,029. The passing attack isn’t shabby with quarterback Tyler Stewart and receivers Jerico Richardson and Hasaan Henderson, both with more than 700 yards receiving. Dameon Baber intercepted six passes this season. Ian Seau—nephew of the legendary Junior Seau—has 15.5 tackles for loss, including nine sacks. Key Stat: Kicker Brent Zuzo can be a weapon, especially in a close game. He’s missed just two field-goal attempts—from 50 and 52 yards—and a perfect in 14 kicks inside 50 yards.

NEVADA

COLORADO STATE

These two conference rivals should be familiar with one another, even though they did not meet this season. Both teams love to establish running games, and ironically neither plays the run very well defensively. So this could be an offensive shootout—on the ground. The importance of first and second down will be emphasized in this game. The team that has to convert third-and-longs too often will be at a disadvantage. Also, in a close game, Nevada’s kicker Brent Zuzo can make long kicks. Prediction: Nevada by 6

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AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl NRG Stadium | Houston, TX Dec. 29, 2015 9:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

LSU TIGERS

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

8-3 (5-3 SEC) Coach: Les Miles

7-5 (4-5 Big 12) Coach: Kliff Kingsbury

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 52 Passing 111 Rushing 10 Scoring 53 Defense National Ranking Total 25 Passing 46 Rushing 24 Scoring 44

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 2 Passing 2 Rushing 30 Scoring 2 Defense National Ranking Total 127 Passing 114 Rushing 126 Scoring 125

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+7 9 2-3 19

+2 15 1-5 38

THE MATCHUP The Les Miles coaching saga turned into one of the most talked about non-firings in history. Miles thought he was coaching his final game against Texas A&M, as did his players and most fans. After the Tigers’ victory, Miles was triumphantly carried off the field by his players. LSU officials announced after the game that there would be no coaching change, a decision evidently made during halftime. Running back Leonard Fournette spent most of the season as the Heisman front runner, and is still in the hunt. He had 150 or more yards rushing in each of the first seven games, including three games of 200 yards or more. After gaining more than a 1,000 yards as a freshman, Fournette became the all-time leading rusher in LSU history this season. He was held to just 31 yards on 19 carries against Alabama. LSU has struggled moving the ball through the air all season, even with defenses keying on Fournette. Quarterback Brandon Harris must step up for LSU to find success in a bowl game. A close game may not favor the Tigers. Kicker Trent Dominque missed four of his last seven field goal attempts over the past two games after beginning the season 10-for-10. Two of the misses were shorter than 30 yards. The most exciting player on defense is Deion Jones. He plays all over the field and is the leading tackler, which includes 11.5 tackles for loss. He has two picks, three pass breakups and six quarterback hurries. Key Stat: In 11 years as coach at LSU, Les Miles’ teams have gone to 11 bowls and been ranked in the top 10 at some point in every season.

Statistically, Texas Tech has the worse defense among all the Power 5 conference teams. But is the defense really that bad, or is that a product of playing one of the toughest schedules in the country? It is true that the Red Raiders played some top-tier offensive teams. But Sam Houston State rolled up 45 points as did a sub-par Texas team. Kansas State scored 44 and Iowa State was held to just 31. So, yeah, the defense was really that porous. And as badly as the defense played this season, the offense performed just as well. The over/under for an intrasquad scrimmage would be about 110. Triggering the potent attack is quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He amassed 4,283 yards through the air with 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. His top receiver is Jakeem Grant, who caught 80 passes for 1,143 yards. Six receivers have more than 300 yards receiving this season already. Micah Awe is the top tackler on the much maligned defense. Three assistants on the defensive side have not been retained, so there is an opportunity for new enthusiasm beginning with this game. But it bears watching how the coaching upheaval will affect the staff and players’ preparation. Key Stat: Texas Tech converted 50% on third downs this year, but their opponents were successful 52% of the time.

TEXAS TECH

LSU

This game has the potential to be the most exciting affair of the bowl season. LSU’s Leonard Fournette will run up and down the field against one of the worst defenses in the nation against the run. Then Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who leads the nation in total offense, will throw it all over the field—primarily to Jakeem Grant—for quickstrike touchdowns against an LSU secondary that has had problems this season. Repeat as necessary. There may not be many punts in this game. In fact, there may not be many third downs. Prediction: LSU by 1

Birmingham Bowl Legion Field | Birmingham, AL Dec 30,, 2015 12:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

AUBURN TIGERS

MEMPHIS TIGERS

6-6 (2-6 SEC) Coach: Gus Malzahn

9-3 (5-3 American Athletic) Interim Coach: Darrell Dickey

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 97 Passing 108 Rushing 42 Scoring 78 Defense National Ranking Total 91 Passing 76 Rushing 92 Scoring 69

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 13 Passing 13 Rushing 48 Scoring 7 Defense National Ranking Total 77 Passing 115 Rushing 30 Scoring 64

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+4 10 0-6 37

+6 65 1-2 42

THE MATCHUP A murderous schedule and lackluster play at quarterback turned Auburn’s season a bit sour. While some schools appreciate six wins and bowl eligibility, Auburn is not in that camp. Highly touted quarterback Jeremy Johnson began the season under center for Gus Malzahn’s offense, but after a disastrous performance against LSU, Johnson was replaced by Sean White. An injury to White, opened the door for Johnson to redeem himself over the last few games. Both players tallied more than 1,000 yards passing. Johnson threw nine touchdown passes, but also completed seven to opponents. White found the end zone with passes just twice, but had just one pick. Both were plagued by inconsistent play at receiver and too many dropped passes. Peyton Barber took some pressure off of the quarterbacks with strong running. He totaled 976 yards and 13 TDs. Ricardo Louis caught 45 passes for 699 yards. The schedule certainly didn’t help. All six losses came against teams currently ranked in the top 25 in the Sagarin ratings.

When a program like Memphis enjoys as much success over a few years as the Tigers have recently, it’s inevitable that coaches like Justin Fuente are in high demand. Fuente is now the head coach at Virginia Tech, replacing the legendary Frank Beamer. Memphis acted quickly and hired Arizona State offensive coordinator Mike Norvell. While the new coach is already on campus, Darrell Dickey and the existing staff will coach the bowl game while Norvell concentrates on recruiting. Memphis was off to a 5-0 start this season, but it was a nationally televised game on Oct. 17 that put the program on the elevators. Memphis defeated Ole Miss, 37-24, and a star was born in quarterback Paxton Lynch. Lynch, a finalist for the Unitas Golden Arm award, completed 69.0% of his passes for 3.670 yards. He tossed 28 touchdowns and was intercepted just three times. There’s little doubt that this offense is built around the passing game, and Lynch spread the wealth with his passing. Mose Frazier is the leading receiver with 66 catches and 750 yards. Anthony Miller caught 44 for 684 yards and Phil Mayhue hauled in 47 for 644. Four running backs gained 310 or more yards this season led by Doroland Dorceus with 613 yards. The Tigers will rotate several players on defense. There were 16 players who recorded a sack this season.

Key Stat: Auburn attempted just 290 passes this season while opponents put the ball in the air 421 times.

Key Stat: Memphis has scored 50 or more points five times this season, twice against bowl teams.

MEMPHIS

AUBURN

After analyzing Auburn’s soft defense and the explosive passing game of Memphis, the fact that Memphis has experienced a coaching change prior to preparations for this game, the effect of Auburn’s defensive coordinator Will Muschamp’s departure for South Carolina, Auburn’s lackluster play at quarterback, Memphis’ inability to stop the pass, Auburn’s inability to pass, this game may simply come down to how excited the Auburn players are about playing in historic Legion Field. An SEC team who has faced six schools currently in the top 25 will probably not be excited about lining up against the Memphis Tigers. But, perhaps, playing in front of a large crowd at old Legion Field will be exhilarating. Chances are that the Memphis Tigers will be fired up and ready to go. But if the more talented Tigers from Auburn are psyched, this will go their way. Prediction: Memphis by 12

Belk Bowl Bank of America Stadium | Charlotte, NC Dec. 30, 2015 3:30 p.m. EST - ESPN

NC STATE WOLFPACK

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

7-5 (3-5 ACC) Coach: Dave Doeren

8-4 (4-4 SEC) Coach: Dan Mullen

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 59 Passing 80 Rushing 32 Scoring 38

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 33 Passing 16 Rushing 103 Scoring 42 Defense National Ranking Total 58 Passing 55 Rushing 72 Scoring 36

Defense National Ranking Total 19 Passing 22 Rushing 40 Scoring 43 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+10 66 0-3 47

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

–5 28 1-3 25

Running back Matt Dayes suffered a foot injury on Halloween against Clemson and the Wolfpack has had trouble mounting a consistent rushing attack since losing their starter. Dayes had 865 yards and 12 touchdowns at the time of the injury. Freshmen Reggie Gallaspy II, Nyheim Hines—a converted wide receiver— and sophomores Dakwa Nichols and Jaylen Samuels, a hybrid fullback/tight end, will share carries in the bowl game. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a threat with his legs as well as his arm. The signal-caller was quite efficient, connecting on 61.3% of his throws and only four picks. Samuels is his favorite target catching 64 passes for 599 yards. Key Stat: NC State was outscored in ACC games 237-219. In non-conference games, the Wolfpack dominated opponents outscoring them 185-48.

The Bulldogs finished the regular season a perfect 8-0 against teams ranked No. 19 or lower at the time of the game. Unfortunately, they played four teams ranked that high and lost all four outings. Quarterback Dak Prescott is a finalist for just about every major award a quarterback can win. Coach Dan Mullen’s offense has been built around Prescott since the multi-talented signal-caller arrived in Starkville. This season he completed 66.9% of his passes for a career-high 3,413 yards and 25 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Without much help from his running backs, Prescott was also the team’s leading rusher with 541 yards and 10 scores. The second-leading rusher, Brandon Holloway, carried the ball just 79 times. Typically, Prescott first looked receiver Fred Ross’s way when in the pocket. Ross caught 81 throws for 933 yards and found the end zone four times. Da’Runnya Wilson had 55 receptions for 822 yards and nine touchdowns. Key Stat: Eleven different receivers have caught a touchdown pass so far this season.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

NC STATE

Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott will be the best player on the field in Charlotte, but Jacoby Brissett, NC State’s versatile quarterback, is certainly no slouch. NC State has been plagued with injuries to running backs all season. With some extra practice time, the Wolfpack may be able to develop a solid rushing attack. If not, it will be a long day for Brissett. Both quarterbacks are playing in their final collegiate game, so emotions will be high. Even though the game is in Charlotte, don’t expect a huge home-crowd advantage for the Wolfpack. HailState will be represented. But you can expect a high-scoring, exciting affair. Prediction: Mississippi State by 5

Franklin American Mortgage

Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium | Nashville, TN Dec. 30, 2015 7:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

TEXAS A&M AGGIES

7-5 (5-3 ACC) Coach: Bobby Petrino

8-4 (4-4 SEC) Coach: Kevin Sumlin

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 61 Passing 44 Rushing 81 Scoring 66 Defense National Ranking Total 13 Passing 40 Rushing 15 Scoring 48 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–3 45 0-3 35

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 48 Passing 40 Rushing 65 Scoring 69 Defense National Ranking Total 42 Passing 4 Rushing 104 Scoring 28 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

–4 33 2-3 31

This game should be a decent gauge of the depth of the SEC and ACC. Louisville, with athletic quarterback Lamar Jackson, is not overly physical. A&M has had trouble stopping physical rushing teams, but should match up with the Cardinals well. Louisville can clog up running games well, so A&M must look to the air for success. Quarterback Kyle Allen must have a big day for Texas A&M to move the ball, and that means finding receiver Christian Kirk with regularity.

After three tough losses against quality opponents to start the season—all by a touchdown or less—the Cardinals won seven of their final nine. For the season, the Cardinals outgained opponents by more than 40 yards a game in both rushing and passing. Dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson is the leading runner with 734 yards and nine touchdowns. He also threw for more than 1,600 yards. Kyle Bolin, a more traditional drop-back passer, will see some snaps as well. Jackson’s favorite targets are Jamari Staples and James Quick. Louisville has the second-best rushing defense in the ACC. The Cardinals enjoy spending time in opponents’ backfields. Devontae Fields has 19 tackles behind the line, and Sheldon Rankins and Keith Kelsey have 12 each. Key Stat: Louisville’s offense made 55 trips into the Red Zone and scored 31 touchdowns, kicked 14 field goals, but were turned away with no points 10 times.

Believe it or not, this is the first time in the storied history of the Texas A&M program that the Aggies have played in bowl games for seven consecutive seasons. Kevin Sumlin’s troops struggled to find footing in the tough SEC West this season. They specifically had trouble running the ball against physical SEC defenses. Armani Watts is a good-looking tackler, who led the Aggies’ defense. Myles Garrett is a big-play specialist. Among his 18.5 tackles behind the line are 11.5 sacks. He forced five fumbles and intercepted a pass.

Key Stat: The Aggies’ defense was manhandled in their first six SEC games this season, giving up 246.7 rushing yards per game.

TEXAS A&M

LOUISVILLE

Prediction: Louisville by 2

Holiday Bowl Qualcomm Stadium | San Diego, CA Dec. 30, 2015 10:30 p.m. EST - ESPN

WISCONSIN BADGERS

USC TROJANS 8-5 (6-3 Pac-12) Coach: Clay Helton

9-3 (6-2 Big Ten) Coach: Paul Chryst

Defense National Ranking Total 3 Passing 6 Rushing 4 Scoring 1

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 35 Passing 31 Rushing 61 Scoring 30 Defense National Ranking Total 70 Passing 98 Rushing 45 Scoring 57

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 83 Passing 58 Rushing 97 Scoring 79

+2 70 0-2 22

+12 3 2-5 14

THE MATCHUP The Badgers haven’t been challenged much this season. Even though they played Alabama in the opening game this season and visited Iowa in early October, Wisconsin played one of the softest schedules among Power 5 schools. But tough opponents or not, the Wisconsin defense has shown to be one of the best in the nation. Linebacker Joe Schobert was named Linebacker of the Year in the Big Ten. It’s an honor he certainly deserves. Among his 18.5 tackles for loss this season were nine sacks. He also had an interception, 14 quarterback hurries, five forced fumbles and two recoveries. The modest Wisconsin offense is led by quarterback Joel Stave who completed 60.4% of his throws, but passed for just 10 touchdowns and was intercepted 11 times. Alex Erickson is a big-time receiver with 72 catches and 924 yards. He caught 30% of the team’s completions this season. Key Stat: Wisconsin made 49 trips to the red zone this season and scored 33 touchdowns. They allowed opponents in the red zone just 22 times and gave up just eight touchdowns and eight field goals.

The USC Trojans began the season as a finesse team under coach Steve Sarkisian, but ended the year as one of the more powerful teams in the land. They couldn’t hang with the power or multiple weapons of Stanford, but USC is much better now than the first half of the year. It will be interesting to see how all the coaching changes on the defensive staff will affect preparations for the bowl game. The playmakers on offense shouldn’t be affected at all. Quarterback Cody Kessler attempted 414 passes with six interceptions so far this season. He has thrown just one pick over his last seven games. He has 3,315 yards passing and 28 touchdowns and completed 67.6% of his tosses. The big-play receiver is JuJu Smith-Schuster who hauled in 85 passes for 1,389 yards. Running backs Ronald Jones II and Justin Davis are both closing in on 1,000 yards. Key Stat: The Trojans have committed just four turnovers in their last seven games.

USC

WISCONSIN

The Wisconsin defense is tremendous at stopping the run and pass, and most importantly, limiting points. The USC Trojans have played one of the toughest schedules in the country this season, but they haven’t played many really tough defenses. Washington is probably the closest defense they’ll find on their schedule, and the Huskies held the Trojans to 12 points, their lowest output all season. While USC may not be able to put up big numbers offensively, stopping Wisconsin doesn’t pose a challenge anywhere close to what the Trojans have experienced with Pac-12 offenses. Wisconsin will look to break the game open with receiver Alex Erickson. Controlling him should be priority No. 1 for the USC defense. Prediction: Wisconsin by 1

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Georgia Dome | Atlanta, GA Dec. 31, 2015 12:00p.m. EST - ESPN

HOUSTON COUGARS

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

12-1 (7-1 American Athletic) Coach: Tom Herman

10-2 (6-2 ACC) Coach: Jimbo Fisher

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 19 Passing 43 Rushing 13 Scoring 12 Defense National Ranking Total 53 Passing 111 Rushing 12 Scoring 19

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 47 Passing 45 Rushing 56 Scoring 48 Defense National Ranking Total 15 Passing 19 Rushing 36 Scoring 5

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+17 92 1-0 27

+4 58 1-1 6

THE MATCHUP The American Athletic Conference champions earned an automatic berth into a New Year’s Day game by being the highest ranked conference champion outside the Power 5 conferences. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. almost single-handed-

HOUSTON

ly makes this offense go. He has run for 1,041 yards and passed for 2,590, averaging 280 yards passing and rushing per game. Kenneth Farrow has 949 yards on the ground with 12 scores. Demarcus Ayers has 89 receptions for 1,140 yards. Defensively, leading tacklers Elandon Roberts and Steven Taylor wreak havoc, combining for 33 tackles for loss plus another 20 quarterback hurries. Key Stat: Houston has outscored opponents 528266, or about 20 points a game. But after the first quarter, the Cougars dominate by 17.6 points a contest.

The Florida State Seminoles feature a stingy defense and a quick strike offense. Allowing just 15.8 points a game, the Seminoles have the fifth-best scoring defense in the nation. All-ACC cornerback Jalen Ramsey leads a secondary that ranks 19th in the country in pass defense. The offense centers around running back Dalvin Cook, a unanimous All-ACC performer. Cook was especially big in big games. He torched Miami for 222 yards on the ground and another 47 receiving. He ran for 194 yards in the loss to Clemson and tallied 183 against rival Florida in the final regular season game. Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson was the signal-caller early in the season, but Sean Maguire took over after a concussion sidelined Golson. Both quarterbacks’ favorite target was receiver Kermit Whitfield. The Noles faced only two Top 30 teams, losing to Clemson and defeating Florida, but they may be as battle-tested as Houston, whose sole top 30 foe was Navy. Key Stat: Turnovers haven’t been the story for Florida State on either side of the ball. They’ve coughed it up just 10 times and forced only 14 turnovers.

FLORIDA STATE

Both Houston and Florida State appreciate lighting up scoreboards and defenses. This Florida State defensive unit is easily the toughest that Houston quarterback Greg Ward has seen all season. Ward must be especially sharp to reach his average of 280 yards passing and rushing per game. The Seminoles’ defense bends for only 4.7 yards per play and has given up just 10 plays all season of 30 yards or more. The Seminoles’ big-play offense will be tested as well, but expect running back Dalvin Cook to get going early against the Cougars. For the Cougars to win, they must prevent any big plays and force Florida State to have to sustain drives, rather than allow the quick strike offense to explode. Prediction: Florida State by 13

Playoff at the Capital One Orange Bowl Sun Life Stadium | Miami Gardens, FL Dec. 31, 2015 4:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

CLEMSON TIGERS

OKLAHOMA SOONERS

13-0 (8-0 ACC) Coach: Dabo Sweeney

11-1 (8-1 Big 12) Coach: Mike Stoops

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 12 Passing 23 Rushing 23 Scoring 15

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 7 Passing 18 Rushing 17 Scoring 3 Defense National Ranking Total 31 Passing 34 Rushing 46 Scoring 21

Defense National Ranking Total 7 Passing 5 Rushing 23 Scoring 18 TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

–2 42 3-0 3

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

+10 9 5-0 2

The Clemson Tigers have been a favorite of the Football Playoff Selection Committee for the past several weeks. The Tigers have lost just six conference games in the past five seasons. But what the Tigers haven’t done is competed for a national title since winning it all way back in 1981, when most parents of current Clemson players were still in middle school. For the Tigers to repeat the 1981 magic, they’ll have to stop turning the ball over so frequently. For the season, Clemson has a minus-2 turnover ratio against FBS opponents and minus-4 in regular season ACC games. There is little doubt who makes the Clemson offense go. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a Heisman hopeful and was recently named ACC Player of the Year. The sophomore threw for 3,512 yards and ran for 887, including 11 touchdowns. Running back Wayne Gallman galloped for more than 1,300 yards. Clutch receiver Artavis Scott is an All-ACC selection. Watson often looks to tight end Jordan Leggett around the goal line. The stout defense features three All-ACC performers in end Shaq Lawson, tackle Carlos Watkins and cornerback Mackensie Alexander. Lawson is a Nagurski Award finalist and leads the nation with 22.5 tackles for loss. Linebackers Ben Boulware and B.J. Goodson form one of the best tandems in the country.

The Oklahoma Sooners gained steam as the season progressed that culminated with wins over highly ranked Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State to finish the season. Early in the year, the Sooners went to Knoxville and trailed most of the game before scoring late to force overtime where the visitors left Tennessee with a 31-24 win in double overtime. A loss to rival Texas is the only blemish on a tremendous season, but not one without another close call. TCU failed to complete a pass on a two-point conversion that would have beaten the Sooners in late November. The Sooners escaped with a 30-29 win. On the field, the Sooners have answered the challenge of the offensively prolific Big 12 conference with a potent offense averaging more than 45 points a game and outscoring opponents 248104 in the second half this season. Heisman hopeful quarterback Baker Mayfield has been sensational. He’s thrown for 3,389 yards and 35 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Samaje Perine leads the running attack with 1,291 yards. Defensively, Erick Striker wreaks havoc with his 16 tackles for loss. Charles Tapper has 10 stops behind the line as well. Ballhawks in the secondary Zack Sanchez (six) and Jordan Thomas (five) have combined for 11 picks. Now, Oklahoma should reward its loyal fans with a trip to the national championship game. The Sooners have sold out 104 consecutive games in Norman.

Key Stat: Clemson has turned the ball at least once in every game except one this season, and made 11 turnovers in the last four games.

Key Stat: Beginning in 2000, the Sooners have been ranked in the top 7 of the AP poll at some point every season.

OKLAHOMA

CLEMSON

The two semifinal games this year promise terrific matchups. Clemson quarterback DeShaun Watson is a tremendous talent. He can throw it and he can run it. He has weapons all over the field as well. Wayne Gallman is a stud at running back and Artavis Scott is a clutch receiver. Oklahoma features a fine offense as well behind triggerman Baker Mayfield. He doesn’t beat defenses with his legs like Watson does, but is efficient throwing the ball. Oklahoma’s defense will probably be a tad more prepared in terms of the competition that the Sooners have faced this season. The only flaw for either team could be Clemson’s propensity for turnovers. That will likely be the difference. Prediction: Oklahoma by 3

Playoff at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl AT&T Stadium | Arlington, TX Jan. 1, 2016 12:30 p.m. EST

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

12-1 (7-1 Big Ten) Coach: Mark Dantonio

12-1 (7-1 SEC) Coach: Nick Saban

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 68 Passing 53 Rushing 79 Scoring 49

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Scoring 36 Passing 73 Rushing 27 Total 49

Defense National Ranking Total 26 Passing 74 Rushing 7 Scoring 19

Defense National Ranking Scoring 3 Passing 17 Rushing 1 Total 2

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+16 44 4-0 9

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+7 4 7-1 1

THE MATCHUP So, the College Football Playoff committee moved the Michigan State Spartans into the No. 3 spot and dropped Oklahoma to No. 4 for the final (and only one that matters) ranking this season after the Spartans dispatched the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game. Now, is that a good thing? Michigan State now faces Alabama in one national semifinal while Oklahoma will meet Clemson. The Spartans’ style was on display against Iowa with toughness in the trenches and clutch play at the end. Michigan State now has a Drive of their own to match anything John Elway ever did with the Denver Broncos. The Spartans marched 82 yards in 22 plays taking nine minutes. They converted five third downs and one fourth down to keep their national title hopes alive. The drive ended with L.J. Scott pounding through Iowa defenders for one final tough yard with 27 seconds left to play. State had finished off Iowa with a 16-13 win. Scott carried the ball 13 times on the final drive, including nine of the final 10 plays. Michigan State defeated Michigan and Ohio State on the final plays of those games. Quarterback Connor Cook was named All-Big Ten by both the Coaches and the Media, as was his favorite receiver Aaron Burbridge. But the strength of the Spartans’ attack is the offensive line, as proven against Iowa. Tackle Jack Conklin and center Jack Allen made the All-Big Ten team, and guard Brian Allen was a second-team selection. The Spartans’ Achilles heel my be defending effective passing games. Indiana torched the Spartans for 308 yards through the air and were within two points of State heading into the fourth quarter. Nebraska, who handed the Spartans their only defeat this season, threw for 320 yards, including 140 in the final four minutes on two touchdown drives. The final drive covered 91 yards with only three completions for the winning touchdown. Key Stat: The Spartans lost just six fumbles and threw only six interceptions. The defense held up pretty good after turnovers allowing only 20 points off turnovers.

Nick Saban’s troops are on a mission. A mission that began after a crushing loss to Ohio State in the playoff semifinals a year ago. The Crimson Tide have outscored opponents by an average of 20 points this season. Breaking that down further to include only SEC games and formidable non-conference foe Wisconsin, Alabama still has a 14-point advantage. The SEC champion’s only slipup was an early-season 6-point loss to Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa. Since then, Alabama fought off a fired up Tennessee squad in a comeback win and dispatched a pesky Auburn team in the regular season finale. Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry carries the load offensively. The tailback has run for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns. Henry had four 200-yard games against SEC teams and failed to gain 100 yards just once in conference play when Arkansas held him to a mere 95 yards. Perhaps his most spectacular performance was his 44 carries for 189 yards against the stout rushing defense of Florida. Quarterback Jake Coker isn’t asked to make big plays, but simply to manage down and distance. Over his final five regular season SEC games, Coker was 90-for-127 (70.9%) with just two picks and two touchdowns. But make no mistake, it’s on defense where Alabama stands out. Only two opponents—Georgia and Tennessee—managed 100 yards on the ground against Alabama. In eight SEC games, the Crimson Tide rolled over offensive lines for 32 sacks. Key Stat: Alabama’s offense has been held to 4.5 yards per play in only one game this season. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense is the only unit to accomplish that. Alabama’s defense has held opponents to 4.5 yards or less per play in 11 of their 13 games.

ALABAMA

MICHIGAN STATE

Well, it’s clear the playoff system is certainly working in one respect: The two semifinal games this year promise to be stellar matchups. This game will be more about toughness and will than talent and flash. Both teams will bring physical play on both sides of the ball. Michigan State, with one of the toughest run-stuffing fronts in college football, will be tested by the pounding of Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. Forcing Alabama to put the ball in the air sounds like a good strategy, but the Spartans’ pass defense is not a strength, although it held up nicely in the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa. Michigan State has been persistent, clutch and maybe a little lucky (see last play of Michigan game). The Spartans will never give up and won’t panic when trailing. They believe in their quarterback and Connor Cook and clutch receiver Aaron Burbridge. What a game this should be. Prediction: Alabama by 3

Outback Bowl Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, FL Jan. 1, 2016 12:00 p.m. EST - ESPN2

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

10-2 (6-2 Conf) Coach: Pat Fitzgerald

8-4 (5-3 SEC) Coach: Butch Jones

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 115 Passing 120 Rushing 37 Scoring 112

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 50 Passing 93 Rushing 21 Scoring 33

Defense National Ranking Total 11 Passing 25 Rushing 14 Scoring 7

Defense National Ranking Total 46 Passing 56 Rushing 49 Scoring 25

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+5 47 2-2 32

+3 2 1-4 17

THE MATCHUP When you average just 20.7 points a game and win 10 games your defense must be pretty darn good. And that’s certainly the case with Northwestern. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald, a former linebacker for the Wildcats, emphasizes defense and it shows. Northwestern held five opponents (Stanford, Eastern Illinois, Duke, Minnesota and Wisconsin) to 10 points or less this season. Opponents converted just 30.9% of third downs. Offenses must account for linebacker Anthony Walker on every play in every situation. He has 19.5 stops behind the line, an interception and three fumble recoveries. Linemen Deonte Gibson and Dean Lowry combined for 26 tackles for loss. Key Stat: Only four opponents managed 20 points against the Northwestern defense this season.

What coulda shoulda woulda been for Tennessee in 2015. The Vols held a 17-3 lead over Oklahoma—a national playoff team—with 8:00 to play before losing in double overtime. Tennessee led Florida—the SEC East Champion—27-14 with less than 5:00 to play. And at Tuscaloosa, the Vols took a 14-13 lead with five minutes left before giving up a touchdown a few minutes later. Factor in the early 14-0 lead against Arkansas, and any self-respecting orange-clad homer will be convinced the Volunteers are this close to a national championship. Well, Tennessee probably is closer than any four-loss team has ever been. Close doesn’t count in college football, but it does breed hope. And 2016 looks pretty bright for the Big Orange Nation. Running back Jalen Hurd carries the offensive load. He ran for 1,158 yards and 11 scores. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs continues to improve, completing 59.9% of his throws. He also scampered for 623 yards and found the end zone nine times. No player had 400 yards receiving but five players had as many as 270. Special teams were a bonus for Butch Jones’ charges. The exciting Evan Berry returned three kicks for touchdowns and the team also returned three punts for scores. Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Derek Barnett are the playmakers on defense. Key Stat: The Tennessee offense was successful on 46% of third downs. The Vols’ defense held opponents to a 28% conversion rate.

TENNESSEE

NORTHWESTERN

The only time these two schools have met was on New Year’s Day in 1997 in the Citrus Bowl. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald was a linebacker on that Northwestern team and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year as well Bednarik and Nagurski Award winner. Fitzgerald’s 2015 squad is sound defensively and makes very few mistakes on offense. Anthony Walker is this year’s version of Fitzgerald. Tennessee was better than both Oklahoma and Alabama for 40+ minutes, but couldn’t finish the deal in either game. This Volunteer team is tested and already building excitement for the future, which begins in Tampa. Kick returner Evan Berry could have a significant effect on the outcome of this game, which should be a close one. Prediction: Tennessee by 2

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl Orlando Citrus Bowl Stadium | Orlando, FL Jan. 1, 2016 1:00 p.m. EST - ABC

FLORIDA GATORS

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

10-3 (7-1 SEC) Coach: Jim McElwain

9-3 (6-2 BIG TEN) Coach: Jim Harbaugh

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 109 Passing 78 Rushing 114 Scoring 97

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 71 Passing 55 Rushing 93 Scoring 54

Defense National Ranking Total 6 Passing 11 Rushing 17 Scoring 8

Defense National Ranking Total 4 Passing 3 Rushing 18 Scoring 11

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+10 9 3-3 20

THE MATCHUP

–6 43 0-3 15

The Florida Gators often floundered offensively, but found their way to the SEC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first year at the helm. McElwain formerly ran Alabama’s offense under Nick Saban. It took a sterling comeback to defeat Tennessee and a last-minute field goal to slip past Vanderbilt 9-7 to earn the SEC East title. The Gators put up a valiant fight in the SEC Championship Game, but were no match for the talented Crimson Tide of Alabama. Quarterback Will Grier was suspended by the NCAA for a year after testing positive for a banned substance. Treon Harris filled in, but the offense never really found a rhythm. Kelvin Taylor has 985 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. Antonio Morrison and Jarrad Davis are the big-play receivers. Defense is how Florida wins games. Jonathan Bullard has 17.5 tackles behind the line this season giving him 33.5 for his career. Vernon Hargreaves III picked off four passes and now has 10 for his career. Although Florida played the 29th toughest schedule this year, the Gators managed to outscore opponents 318-215, or eight points per game. Key Stat: Florida has enjoyed fast starts out of the locker room. In the first and third quarters, the Gators have outscored opponents 156-58.

In Jim Harbaugh’s first year as head coach at his alma mater, the Wolverines accomplished some great things. They shut out BYU 31-0. They also shut out Northwestern 38-0 on homecoming. For good measure, Michigan blanked Maryland in between, whitewashing opponents for 13 straight quarters. They climbed to No. 12 in the nation entering the final game of the regular season. But— and it’s a critical but—losses to Michigan State and Ohio State killed the season in Ann Arbor. Those two losses can erase more than nine wins, and Harbaugh is well aware of that. The loss to Michigan State was especially painful, giving up the winning touchdown on a fumbled punt snap. But among the accomplishments that most programs would celebrate is Michigan’s performance in the red zone. The offense made 49 trips to the red zone and came up empty just three times, scoring 33 touchdowns and kicking 13 field goals. Defensively, opponents reached the red zone just 31 times and were shut down five times. Michigan gave up just 13 touchdowns and 13 field goals. Key Stat: The Wolverines enjoy the second quarter for some reason, outscoring opponents by 76 points. They outscored foes by 78 points in the first, third and fourth quarters combined.

MICHIGAN

FLORIDA

There is no doubt that this will be a defensive struggle from start to finish. Both teams have inconsistent offenses and stonewalling defenses. Michigan’s offensive line has struggled much of the season, and that could spell disaster against Florida’s terrific defensive front. The Gators’ offense has never really found a rhythm with Treon Harris under center. Michigan’s defense will smell blood, for sure. However, it will be interesting to see what effect losing defensive coordinator D.J. Dunkin will have on Michigan’s defense. Dunkin left Michigan to become the head coach at Maryland. With defenses dominating the line of scrimmage, just one turnover that gives the other team a short field could be enough to decide this one. Kick and punt returns could be a deciding factor as well. And Florida should have an advantage in the return game. Prediction: Florida by 2

Vizio Fiesta Bowl University of Phoenix Stadium | Glendale, AZ Jan. 1, 2016 1:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

11-1 (7-1 Big Ten) Coach: Urban Meyer

10-2 Coach: Brian Kelly

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 42 Passing 104 Rushing 12 Scoring 29

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 25 Passing 37 Rushing 25 Scoring 31

Defense National Ranking Total 10 Passing 12 Rushing 22 Scoring 2

Defense National Ranking Total 38 Passing 28 Rushing 65 Scoring 34

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+2 61 1-1 4

THE MATCHUP

–5 20 2-2 8

The Ohio State Buckeyes and their fans believe they are one of the nation’s top four teams, although they couldn’t convince the selection committee. Even with a schedule ranked 61, the Buckeyes have some believers. The Sagarin ratings have the Buckeyes at No. 3 behind Alabama and Oklahoma. But that wasn’t strong enough evidence to convince the only people that matter—the members of the playoff committee. With just one loss to Michigan State on the game’s final snap, the defending champions are on the outside looking in at the college football playoffs this season. While the Buckeyes were building their 10-0 record, they didn’t play a team currently ranked in the top 40 of the Sagarin rankings, and only one in the 50 and just two in the top 60. While the offense was a bit inconsistent trying to find the right man under center, the stifling defense carried the team. Allowing just 14 points a game, the Ohio State defensive unit ranks second in the nation. The defense gave up just 304 yards per game, good enough for 10th in the country. J.T. Barrett has settled in at quarterback, but was asked to throw just 31 passes in the two games combined against Michigan State and Michigan. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is the star of the offensive show. After complaining about his lack of carries in the MSU game, he was given the ball 30 times against Michigan and responded with 214 yards and two scores. Key Stat: After committing 13 turnovers in the first five games of the season, the offense cleaned up its sloppy play with just four giveaways in the final seven contests.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish don’t really have a turnover problem—they’ve averaged 1.5 turnovers a game. But the defense isn’t forcing many either. Notre Dame has recovered just five fumbles and picked off eight passes this season. Opponents haven’t had great success throwing the ball against the Notre Dame defense, but the fact that teams have been able to run it so easily probably contributes to that. The defense has been successful getting off the field on third downs holding opponents to a 32.9% conversion rate, good enough for 18th in the country. Running back C.J. Prosise has 1,032 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns despite missing a couple of games. DeShone Kizer has thrown for 2,600 yards and 19 scores, but has been picked off nine times. Will Fuller is a deep threat with 1,145 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns. He’s averaging 20.4 yards per catch. Jaylon Smith is the big man on defense. He leads the squad with 68 solo stops and has nine tackles behind the line. Key Stat: Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t created too many scoring opportunities for the offense. The Irish have just 13 takeaways, five fumble recoveries and eight interceptions.

NOTRE DAME

OHIO STATE

This is a dream matchup for the Fiesta Bowl. Tickets will be in high demand, TV ratings will be tremendous, and pregame hype endless. This truly is must-see TV, and the intrigue begins with Notre Dame’s athletic offense against a tough, stingy Ohio State defense. Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer can’t afford to make mistakes and he’ll utilize Will Fuller to test the Buckeyes’ secondary. Ohio State must be successful running the ball with Ezekiel Elliott, or it could be a long day for quarterback J.T. Barrett. If the Buckeyes’ signal-caller is asked to put the ball in the air more than 25 times, Ohio State will struggle. Expect both coaches to be all-in and pull out gadget plays, fake kicks and surprise offensive wrinkles. Defensive coordinators beware. Prediction: Ohio State by 6

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Rose Bowl Game Rose Bowl Stadium | Pasadena, CA Jan. 1, 2016 5:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

IOWA HAWKEYES

STANFORD CARDINAL

12-1 (8-0 Big Ten) Coach: Kirk Ferentz

11-2 (8-1 PAC-12) Coach: David Shaw

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 69 Passing 90 Rushing 40 Scoring 49

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 38 Passing 79 Rushing 19 Scoring 18

Defense National Ranking Total 20 Passing 60 Rushing 10 Scoring 15

Defense National Ranking Total 50 Passing 71 Rushing 44 Scoring 38

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+12 7 1-1 13

THE MATCHUP

0 4 5-1 5

The Iowa Hawkeyes may be the least respected team in America—relatively speaking. Criticized for their light schedule and lack of dominating wins, but the Hawkeyes finished the regular season as one of two undefeated Power 5 teams. The opportunistic Hawkeyes carried a +15 turnover ratio into the Big Ten Championship Game against Michigan State. The Iowa defense intercepted opponents 17 times in the regular season, and quarterback C.J. Beathard threw just three picks. Including the Big Ten Championship Game, the quarterback completed 61.4% of his passes for 2,570 yards and 15 touchdowns. Jordan Canzeri is the leading rusher with 976 yards. Tight end George Kittle is Beathard’s favorite target in the red zone with six touchdown receptions. Defensive back Desmond King is primarily responsible for creating turnovers with eight interceptions this season. Nate Meier is adept at getting to the quarterback with seven sacks and nine hurries. Key Stat: The Iowa defense has yielded 365 total yards or more in each of the Hawkeyes’ last five games. Those games represent the five highest totals of the season.

The Cardinal won the Pac-12 championship and have a strong case to be included among the final four teams in the playoffs, although the committee didn’t see it that way. Stanford has one of the most exciting players in the country, if not the most exciting, in Christian McCaffrey. A finalist for the Heisman Trophy, McCaffrey leads the nation in all-purpose yards. McCaffrey does a little bit— make that a lot— of everything for the Cardinal. He returns kicks and punts and has 540 yards receiving and 1,847 on the ground. He’s scored 13 touchdowns and even passed for two, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game. He averages 268.9 all-purpose yards per game—68 yards per game more than any other player. A hallmark of David Shaw teams is a creative, efficient offense, and quarterback Kevin Hogan is a perfect fit for this offense. He not only is adept at making proper calls at the line of scrimmage, but he’s also a playmaker. Key Stat: Christian McCaffrey piled up 461 all-purpose yards in the Pac-12 Championship Game against USC. That represents the highest total in college football this season—by 72 yards. McCaffrey also owns the second- and third-highest games of 389 and 369 yards. He has five games this season with as many as 300 all-purpose yards.

STANFORD

IOWA

While both teams would certainly rather be playing for a national championship, there shouldn’t be any lack of motivation here. This could be trench warfare at its finest, but Stanford’s offensive staff can get pretty creative when necessary. It is no secret that the Cardinal likes to get Christian McCaffrey the ball as often as possible. Iowa plays the run pretty well, so look for Stanford to get McCaffrey the ball on short passes to jumpstart the offense. Iowa’s offense won’t win any art contests, but football is about math and science, not art. Stanford’s defense has shown some signs of vulnerability, and Iowa will just pound away. If this were a cold weather game on the plains in Iowa, the Hawkeyes could feel pretty good about it. But the weather in Pasadena is usually pretty nice this time of year. Prediction: Stanford by 9

Allstate Sugar Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome | New Orleans, LA Jan. 1, 2016 8:30 p.m. EST - ESPN

OLE MISS REBELS

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

9-3 (6-2 SEC) Coach: Hugh Freeze

10-2 (7-2 BIG 12) Coach: Mike Gundy

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 11 Passing 10 Rushing 55 Scoring 14

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 17 Passing 7 Rushing 110 Scoring 9

Defense National Ranking Total 56 Passing 101 Rushing 26 Scoring 36

Defense National Ranking Total 96 Passing 92 Rushing 83 Scoring 86

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

0 22 3-2 10

THE MATCHUP

+13 39 2-2 16

A fluky backward 10-yard lateral/fumble by Arkansas and subsequent recovery and run, then a fumble and recovery for a first down on fourth-and-25 in overtime followed by a touchdown and 2-point conversion is the only play that kept Ole Miss out of the SEC Championship Game. After all, Ole Miss beat Alabama—the only team to do so—43-37 back in September. Losses to Florida and Memphis would have proved inconsequential in determining the SEC West title had Ole Miss stopped the Arkansas mayhem. Yet that one wild play knocked the Rebels out of the opportunity of playing for the conference title. Of course, the Rebels can look at mistakes on defense against Florida and Arkansas before the game made it to overtime and see why they are not in the final four teams. Quarterback Chad Kelly, who played as a redshirt freshman at Clemson in 2013, transferred to Ole Miss from East Mississippi Junior College. Kelly is the triggerman that makes the Rebels’ offense tick. He threw for 3,740 yards and ran for 427 and 10 touchdowns and kept getting better throughout the season. His favorite receiver is Laquon Treadwell, who caught 76 balls for 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Key Stat: Ole Miss has allowed just four sacks over their last five games.

Well, if you like teams that run the ball, stop the run and play sound defense, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are not for you. Mike Gundy’s offense likes to throw the ball all over the field and owns the seventh most prolific passing attack in the land. Consequently, they don’t run it very often or very well. Defensively, the Cowboys give up more than 185 rushing yards a game. But one thing this team does well other than throw the ball is hold on to it tightly. The Cowboys have lost just four fumbles all season. Quarterback Mason Rudolph leads the offense with 3,591 passing yards. He had foot surgery following the final regular season, but is expected to play. It will be interesting to see how that might affect his performance. The Cowboys have three receivers with as many as 696 receiving yards. James Washington has 52 catches for 1,077 yards and 10 scores. David Glidden leads the team with 53 catches for 807 yards. Marcell Ateman has 40 receptions for 696 yards. Rudolph enjoys spreading the wealth among his receivers with 10 different players with at least two touchdown catches. There aren’t many bright spots on defense, but Emmanuel Ogbah pressures quaterbacks as good as anyone in the country. He has 17.5 tackles for loss, including 13 sacks. He also is credited with 19 quarterback hurries. Key Stat: Only seven Power 5 schools have a worse ground attack than the Cowboys. Those seven schools have combined for just 16 conference wins, or a little more than two apiece.

OKLAHOMA STATE

OLE MISS

There’s no reason to believe Oklahoma State will even try to run the ball against Ole Miss. That is the strength of the Rebels’ defense, and, well, the Cowboys just aren’t very good at it. If Oklahoma State’s quarterback Mason Rudolph is completely recovered from foot surgery—and all indications are that his is—this Cowboys’ offense poses a tough matchup for the Rebels. Ole Miss can throw it pretty well too, and Oklahoma State doesn’t defend the pass well either. One thing the Cowboys do well on defense is create havoc at the line of scrimmage and get to the quarterback. Ole Miss doesn’t give up many sacks, but they haven’t faced anyone as good as Emmanuel Ogbah. Prediction: Oklahoma State by 4

TaxSlayer Bowl Everbank Field | Jacksonville, FL Jan. 2, 2016 12:00 p.m. EST - ESPN

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

GEORGIA BULLDOGS

7-5 (4-4 Big Ten) Coach: James Franklin

9-3 (5-3 SEC) Interim Coach: Bryan McClendon

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 106 Passing 82 Rushing 106 Scoring 100

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 75 Passing 103 Rushing q36 Scoring 84

Defense National Ranking Total 14 Passing 10 Rushing 47 Scoring 29

Defense National Ranking Total 8 Passing 1 Rushing 48 Scoring 9

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+5 4 0-3 49

+3 62 0-3 23

THE MATCHUP Penn State took care of business against weak teams, but couldn’t really break through against quality opponents. San Diego State rates as the best win for the Nittany Lions. The offense had a bit of a conservative nature this season. The Lions were efficient in the red zone, but settled for field goals too often. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg threw just five picks and 16 touchdowns. He totaled 2,386 yards. Running back Saquon Barkley topped the 1,000-yard mark. Chris Godwin is the leading receiver with 63 catches and 968 yards. It’s on the other side of the ball where Penn State shines brightest. And the leader is Carl Nassib, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. He caught opponents in the backfield 19.5 times and had 15.5 sacks. Key Stat: The disciplined Lions allowed just 10 first downs by penalty this season.

If you’re a fan of prolific passing games, then watching Georgia is not for you. In addition to the best pass defense in the country, Georgia’s own aerial attack leaves much to be desired. The stories out of Athens this season were Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury in the sixth game, inconsistent quarterback play and how long would head coach Mark Richt be employed. Richt was fired shortly after the season and has since taken the job at Miami. But Chubb’s injury and a lackluster passing attack kept an otherwise strong Georgia team from making headway nationally. Quarterback Greyson Lambert struggled with inconsistency (going 11-for-21 against Vanderbilt followed by a 24-for-25 dismantling of South Carolina) and without Chubb, the running game never got traction. Georgia defeated the poor and mediocre teams on the schedule, but couldn’t really compete with the big boys. Key Stat: Georgia outscored opponents 168-84 after halftime this season. Included in those numbers is the fact they were outscored 42-17 in the second half by Alabama, Tennessee and Florida in the Bulldogs’ three losses.

GEORGIA

PENN STATE

Both teams have much work to do offensively, especially in the passing games. Fans of aerial shows and lots of points may not want to tune in to this one. Expect James Franklin and his staff to be especially creative with new wrinkles on offense. With wholesale coaching changes at Georgia, the Bulldogs’ staff may not be as well prepared. The Nittany Lions are not as mistake prone as Georgia, and that could loom large. Prediction: Penn State by 7

AutoZone Liberty Bowl Liberty Bowl Stadium | Memphis, TN Jan. 2, 2016 3:20 p.m. EST - ESPN

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

7-5 (5-3 SEC) Coach: Bret Bielema

6-6 (3-6 BIG 12) Coach: Bill Snyder

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 31 Passing 33 Rushing 39 Scoring 28

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 107 Passing 107 Rushing 74 Scoring 55

Defense National Ranking Total 72 Passing 121 Rushing 16 Scoring 75

Defense National Ranking Total 101 Passing 120 Rushing 55 Scoring 90

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+7 8 3-2 21

THE MATCHUP

–3 31 1-4 54

Chances are if teams get Arkansas into a high-scoring shootout that involves overtime, the Razorbacks will be prepared. The Hogs played three games this season against SEC foes when 100 points were scored. Arkansas won two of the games (Auburn and Ole Miss) but lost 51-50 in regulation to Mississippi State. The Razorbacks know how to protect the pigskin. They lost just three fumbles this season. Alex Collins ran for 1,392 yards and found the end zone 17 times. Quarterback Brandon Allen completed passes for 3,125 yards and 29 scores. He was efficient as well connecting on 65.1% of his tosses. Drew Morgan has 55 catches for 751 yards and 10 touchdowns. Hunter Henry caught 46 passes for 647 yards. Brooks Ellis and Dre Greenlaw are the leading tacklers for the Hogs. Key Stat: The disciplined Hogs have been penalized just six times for 54 yards over their last four games.

Bill Snyder’s troops played a tough schedule this season and came out of it bowl eligible and battle tested. The Wildcats have struggled to find a consistent offense and playmakers. Kody Cook, who lines up at receiver and quarterback, is an exciting player to watch. The primary signal-caller will be Joe Hubener, who ran for 613 yards and threw for 1,837. Charles Jones will get most of the carries in the backfield. He has run for 656 yards and five scores. The most talented playmaker is probably kick returner Morgan Burns. He has four returns for touchdowns and can swing momentum quickly. Defensively, Elijah Lee leads the Wildcats in tackles and Jordan Willis spends some time in opponents’ backfields with 13 tackles for loss. Key Stat: The Wildcats rarely get into a turnover battle. Kansas State lost just six fumbles this season and intercepted only four passes.

KANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS

At first glance, this is not a good matchup for the Kansas State Wildcats, who reached bowl eligibility (or at least six-win bowl eligibility) with an upset over West Virginia in the final game of the season. And under closer scrutiny, it’s still a really bad matchup. The Wildcats have trouble mustering any sustainable offense, and do not defend talented passing attacks well. Arkansas’ defense should be up to task and quarterback Brandon Allen should have a big day as will running back Alex Collins. Neither team has a history of hurting itself with turnovers and penalties. Keys for Kansas State success will be new wrinkles on offense—perhaps using Kody Cook in various ways or even getting Morgan Burns some touches—and Burns breaking a kick return for a score. Prediction: Arkansas by 20

Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome | San Antonio, TX Jan. 2, 2016 6:45 p.m. EST - ESPN

OREGON DUCKS

TCU HORNED FROGS

9-3 (7-2 Pac-12) Coach: Mark Helfrich

10-2 (6-2 BIG 12) Coach: Gary Patterson

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 6 Passing 35 Rushing 5 Scoring 6

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 3 Passing 9 Rushing 24 Scoring 8

Defense National Ranking Total 116 Passing 126 Rushing 75 Scoring 114

Defense National Ranking Total 66 Passing 51 Rushing 80 Scoring 59

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

+5 23 3-2 18

0 36 2-2 7

THE MATCHUP For several years, Oregon has built a reputation of having an explosive offense. This season is no exception. Unfortunately for the Ducks, their defense hasn’t been up to the task this season. Only Arizona State and Indiana have worse pass defenses than Oregon. If the Ducks’ offense and defense played each other, the over/under would certainly be in triple digits. The offense averages 43.2 points a game and features quarterback Vernon Adams Jr., a transfer from Eastern Washington. Adams threw for 2,446 yards and 25 touchdowns despite missing three games and parts of two others. Bralon Addison is a handy weapon. He passed for a touchdown, had 10 touchdown receptions and ran for a couple. For good measure, he returned a punt for a score as well. Royce Freeman is the Ducks’ leading runner with 1,706 yards and 14 touchdowns. This team is much better with Adams on the field. He was nursing a leg injury in the loss at Michigan State, played only briefly in the loss to Utah and missed all of the overtime loss to Washington State. Since returning healthy, Adams has led the Ducks to a sixgame winning streak that included consecutive wins over Pac-12 Championship Game participants Stanford on the road and USC, as well as arch-rival Oregon State. Key Stat: Colorado (24) and Washington (20) are the only opponents to score fewer than 28 points. Utah (20) and Washington (26) are the only opponents to hold Oregon under 28 points.

TCU felt slighted last season by the playoff committee and used that as motivation all summer. That seemed to be working for them pretty well. But Oklahoma State intercepted four TCU passes and handed the Frogs their first loss on Nov. 7. Two weeks later, with the Big 12 title still on the line, TCU played without quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin and star receiver Josh Doctson. The Frogs were a 2-point conversion away from defeating the Sooners. Boykin returned for the finale against Baylor. Doctson did not and he is questionable for the bowl game. Doctson was having a terrific season when he injured his wrist against Kansas. In just 10 games, Doctson hauled in 79 passes for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns. Senior running back Aaron Green led the Horned Frogs with 1,171 yards on the ground. Key Stat: Against seven ranked teams this season, TCU averaged just 117.4 yards through the air and 76.1 on the ground.

TCU

OREGON

While this game has all the appearances of a high-scoring shootout, TCU may be able to muster enough defense to give the Horned Frogs an edge. Both teams are accustomed to playing high-scoring shootouts, so neither offense will panic if they fall behind two or three scores. TCU’s Trevone Boykin poses a tough assignment for the porous Ducks’ defense. If receiver Josh Doctson is able to return from his wrist injury, Boykins will have his best weapon. Oregon is a much better team with quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. healthy. But this is also a team that gave up more than 40 points five times this season. Prediction: TCU by 7

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl Sun Devil Stadium | Tempe, AZ Jan. 2, 2016 10:15 p.m. EST - ESPN

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

6-6 (4-5 Pac-12) Coach: Todd Graham

7-5 (4-5 BIG 12) Coach: Dana Holgorsen

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 23 Passing 22 Rushing 51 Scoring 37

NCAA Ranks Offense National Ranking Total 28 Passing 60 Rushing 16 Scoring 41

Defense National Ranking Total 103 Passing 127 Rushing 19 Scoring 97

Defense National Ranking Total 55 Passing 63 Rushing 61 Scoring 39

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

0 17 2-3 39

TO Margin Sagarin SOS Vs. Sagarin Top 30 Sagarin Ranking

THE MATCHUP

+11 40 0-4 29

The Sun Devils’ offense is triggered by the sophomore rushing duo of Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage, who combined for 1,677 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Quarterback Mike Bercovici completed 60.3% of his throws for 3,437 yards and 26 touchdowns with only nine picks. Devin Lucien is the top receiver with 931 yards and seven scores. Statistically, the defense has performed well against the run, but the numbers are a bit misleading because teams threw the ball at will against the Sun Devils. Only twice in nine Pac-12 games did Arizona State hold opponents under 300 yards passing.

West Virginia defeated below average teams soundly, managed to beat some pretty good teams, lost to really good teams and weren’t competitive against top teams, especially on the road. The only exception was the disappointing loss to an average Kansas State team in the regular season finale. The Wildcats were playing for bowl eligibility with much more to play for than the Mountaineers. Junior running back Wendell Smallwood, who rushed for 1,447 yards and nine touchdowns on the season, leads West Virginia’s offense. The defense held opponents to just 163.5 rushing yards per game. While the passing yardage allowed stats weren’t great, the Mountaineers got to quarterbacks 29 times for sacks and picked off 23 passes, good enough for second in the nation.

Key Stat: Six players caught passes for 299 yards or more.

Key Stat: Daryl Worley and Karl Joseph combined for 11 interceptions this season.

WEST VIRGINIA

ARIZONA STATE

West Virginia features a pretty good running game, but expect the Mountaineers to open up the offense, especially early, to exploit the weaknesses in the Arizona State secondary. Expect the Sun Devils to stick with the punishing ground attack and wear down West Virginia’s defense. The game promises a competitive matchup. Both teams understand what top competition is about having played tough schedules this season. Playing at home is a slight advantage for the Sun Devils, and may be enough to put them over the top. Prediction: Arizona State by 3

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