2018-19 Southern Football Guide Bowl Preview

SOUTHERN FOOTBALL

GUIDE

2018-19 BOWL PREVIEW

EDITOR’S

LETTER CHARLIE MILLER

There are few sporting seasons in America like Bowl Season. Even for schools not competing for the national championship, winning a bowl game adds a bit of panache that lasts right through recruiting season up until the first game 2019. Bowl Season has a way of making North Texas vs. Utah State seem like a big, big deal.

Speaking of national championships, the argument will probably never end over the four teams that should have been included in the playoff this season. The heart of the debate is probably the distinction between “deserving” vs. “best teams,” which are usually not the same.

At any rate, save this newsletter to keep track of who plays whom, when, and maybe just a touch of useful knowledge for your entertainment purposes.

The Sagarin Rankings are used here for comparison purposes. The record vs. the Top 30 is based on teams currently ranked in the top 30. The strength of schedule (SOS) is a ranking based on all FBS and FCS teams.

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2018-19 BOWL PREVIEW

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New Mexico Bowl Albuquerque, NM Dec. 15 2:00 ET - ESPN

North Texas Mean Green Coach: Seth Littrell 9-3 (5-3 C-USA)

Utah State Aggies Coach: Frank Maile 10-2 (7-1 MWC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

NT

STAT

NT

Pts/G

36.4 47.2

Pts/G

21.8 23

USU

USU

Rush Yds/G

156.6

203.7

Rush Yds/G

113.4

144.9

Pass Yds/G

316.3

288.8

Pass Yds/G

246.1

240.1

Total Yds/G

472.8

492.5

Total Yds/G

359.5

385

Yds/Play 6.37 6.86

Yds/Play 5.19 5.07

3D Conv%

39.5

45.7

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+8

+11

0-0

0-2

v. Sagarin T30

32.2

34.5

Sagarin Rank

80

34

Sagarin SOS

139

114

North Texas brings an exciting brand of offense and an opportunistic defense to Albuquerque to face the Aggies of Utah State. The North Texas Mean Green secondary picked off 17 passes, which helped account for the team’s +8 turnover ratio. Quarterback Mason Fine triggers the offense and averages more than 300 yards passing a game. His favorite target is Rico Bussey Jr. who caught 68 passes for 1,017 yards and 12 touchdowns. Defensively, linebacker E.J. Ejiya is a menace with 23 stops behind the line.

The Aggies will be without head coach Mike Wells, who has taken the job at Texas Tech. They bring a balanced offense and tough defense to the party. Jordan Love runs the Aggies’ offense and is a 65.8 percent passer for 3,208 yards. He’s thrown 27 touchdowns and just two picks in his last 10 games. Ron’quavion Tarver has 62 catches for 676 yards to lead the team. Running back Darwin Thompson is 49 yards shy of 1,000 this season. Sophomore linebacker David Woodward is the team’s leading tackler and has 12.5 tackles behind the line.

Key Stats: Utah State is 10-0 against non-ranked foes this season with its lone losses to Michigan State and Boise State.

North Texas cornerback Kemon Hall picked off five passes this season and returned two for touchdowns.

Prediction: Utah State 38, North Texas 20

UTAH STATE

NORTH TEXAS

THE MATCHUP

Cure Bowl

Orlando, FL Dec. 15 2:30 ET - CBSSN

Tulane Green Wave

Coach: Willie Fritz 6-6 (5-3 AAC)

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Coach: Billy Napier 7-6 (5-3 Sun Belt)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

TUL

UL

25.7 32.5

Pts/G

TUL

UL

27.8 33.7

Rush Yds/G

208.3

229.1

Rush Yds/G

152.6

210.0

Pass Yds/G

186.1

208.0

Pass Yds/G

266.6

222.3

Total Yds/G

394.3

437.1

Total Yds/G

419.2

432.3

Yds/Play 5.78 6.72

Yds/Play 5.61 6.39

3D Conv%

34.5

48.2

3D Conv%

TO Margin

0

-3

0-1

0-2

v. Sagarin T30

33.9

45.1

Sagarin Rank

92

110

Sagarin SOS

74

112

The Cure Bowl features a pair of teams from Cajun Country going to Disney Country to settle their differences, and Louisiana is urging its fans to “Geaux to Orlandeaux.” Louisiana lost the Sun Belt Championship Game to Appalachian State in a rematch from earlier in the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns are perfectly content to run the ball, something they do quite well with a pair of quality backs. Trey Ragas has 1,141 yards rushing this season and Elijah Mitchell has toted it for 959 yards and 12 touchdowns.

They gain most of their yardage running behind linemen Kevin Dotson and Robert Hunt. Tulane head coach Willie Fritz parted ways with offensive coordinator Doug Ruse after the regular-season finale with Navy. Interim OC Alex Atkins has never called plays before. In wins over Memphis, Tulsa and South Florida, the Green Wave had more than 300 yards rushing.

That trend changed a bit in victories over East Carolina and Navy, when Tulane had more passing yards than rushing yards. Expect several new wrinkles from the Green Wave offense.

Key Stats: Tulane’s defense boasts nine different players with at least one interception this season, led by Donnie Lewis Jr. with three.

Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais have carried the ball a total of 415 times and average 6.78 yards a carry for Louisiana.

Prediction: Tulane 25, Louisiana 23

LOUISIANA

TULANE

THE MATCHUP

Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas, NV Dec. 15 3:30 ET - ABC

Arizona State Sun Devils

Coach: Herm Edwards 7-5 (5-4 Pac-12)

Fresno State Bulldogs

Coach: Jeff Tedford 11-2 (7-1 MWC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

ASU

FSU

30.8 34.9

Pts/G

ASU

FSU

25.1 13.7

Rush Yds/G

185.7

146.2

Rush Yds/G

163.1

129.8

Pass Yds/G

241.3

274.2

Pass Yds/G

238.7

194.1

Total Yds/G

427.0

420.4

Total Yds/G

401.8

323.8

Yds/Play 6.17 6.23

Yds/Play 5.63 4.76

3D Conv%

41.4

44.8

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+9

+13

2-2

1-1

v. Sagarin T30

41.1

33

Sagarin Rank

41

23

Sagarin SOS

46

81

Bowls featuring teams from Power 5 conferences vs. a top team from the Group of 5 always poses an interesting battle. Teams like Arizona State sometimes feel as though they have little to play for, while schools like Fresno State come in with a huge chip on their shoulder. Coach Herm Edwards is not likely to allow his players at ASU to slack off in this game.

Typically, wins over USC, UCLA, rival Arizona and Pac-12 South champ Utah would mean a darn good season in Tempe. But too many close losses derailed this season. The Sun Devils will be without leading receiver N’Keal Harry, who has decided to skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Fresno State will come in with guns blazing, throwing the ball all over the field, but especially to receiver Keesean Johnson who has 93 catches for 1,307 yards. Quarterback Marcus McMaryion is a 70 percent passer with 3,453 yards passing and 25 touchdowns with just two picks.

McMaryion loves spreading the ball around; seven receivers have at least two touchdown receptions.

Key Stats: The Sun Devils lost four games by seven points each and another by just two.

With its overtime win over Boise State in the MWC Championship Game, Fresno State owns a 5-2 record vs. bowl teams this season.

Prediction: Fresno State 24, Arizona State 17

FRESNO STATE

ARIZONA STATE

THE MATCHUP

Camellia Bowl Montgomery, AL Dec. 15 5:30 ET - ESPN

Georgia Southern Eagles Coach: Doc Holliday 9-3 (6-2 Sun Belt)

Eastern Michigan Eagles Coach: Chris Creighton 7-5 (5-3 MAC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

GA SO

Pts/G

EMU

31.1 27.5

GA SO

Pts/G

EMU

21.6 22.0

Rush Yds/G

260.8

149.4

Rush Yds/G

144.2

192.9

Pass Yds/G

82.8

228.6

Pass Yds/G

217.6

160.0

Total Yds/G

343.7

378.0

Total Yds/G

361.8

352.9

Yds/Play 5.93 5.47

Yds/Play 5.42 4.94

3D Conv%

39.3

32.9

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+22

+10

v. Sagarin T30

0-1

0-0

38.7

37.8

Sagarin Rank

86

87

Sagarin SOS

136

104

Go Eagles! The Georgia Southern Eagles and the Eastern Michigan Eagles come in about as evenly matched as any bowl could want. Georgia Southern will grind it out with an all-out running game, while EMU prefers the pass, but balances its attack pretty well. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is a big-play machine on defense for EMU. He’s a two-time first-team AllMAC selection and had 18 tackles for a loss this season. He also forced four fumbles and batted down three passes and even picked off one. Linebacker Kyle Rachwal plays all over the field and will be instrumental in EMU’s success. Georgia Southern will run, run, run, led by quarterback Shai Werts, who has 829 yards rushing. He’s attempted just 109 passes but has yet to throw an interception. Wesley Fields leads the rushing attack with 959 yards. Three other runners have as many as 300 yards rushing and carry an average of five yards per attempt. Georgia Southern’s key wins this season are over Arkansas State and Appalachian State, winning the turnover battle, 6-0 in those two tilts.

Key Stats: In between wins over Purdue and Toledo, Eastern Michigan dropped four games by a total of just 16 points combined.

Georgia Southern can air it out. The Eagles have six pass plays for 40 yards or more this season, and is the only school without throwing an interception this season.

Prediction: Eastern Michigan 19, Georgia Southern 18

EASTERN MICHIGAN

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

THE MATCHUP

New Orleans Bowl New Orleans, LA Dec. 15 9:00 ET - ESPN

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Coach: Rick Stockstill 8-5 (7-1 C-USA)

Appalachian State Mountaineers Coach: Mark Ivey 10-2 (7-1 Sun Belt)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

MT

STAT

MT

Pts/G

29.2 36.7

Pts/G

25.3 15.7

APP

APP

Rush Yds/G

138.1

241.0

Rush Yds/G

159.4

131.3

Pass Yds/G

255.4

188.6

Pass Yds/G

213.1

148.1

Total Yds/G

393.5

429.6

Total Yds/G

372.5

279.3

Yds/Play 5.56 6.45

Yds/Play 5.35 4.34

3D Conv%

37.8

40.3

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+4

+7

0-2

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

44.1

31.2

Sagarin Rank

83

44

Sagarin SOS

100

132

Middle Tennessee and Appalachian State have become the poster schools for up-and-coming Group of 5 little brother schools. App State actually cracked the top 25 this season before a disappointing loss to Georgia Southern in late October. Middle Tennessee is 8-2 this season when not playing on the road in the SEC. The Mountaineers love to run it and the Blue Raiders love to throw it, making this an exciting matchup. App State will be without long-time head coach Scott Satterfield, who has taken the job at Louisville. Mark Ivey will serve as interim coach for the bowl game.

The Mountaineers’ offense revolves around running back Darrynton Evans, a 1,079-yard runner. Quarterback Zac Thomas is a threat as well with 476 yards on the ground and 10 touchdowns. Thomas has thrown for 1,862 yards and 18 touchdowns. Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill is the only active player with 100 touchdowns passes in his career.

He’s thrown for 3,214 yards and 28 scores this season. His primary target is Ty Lee with 67 catches for 828 yards.

Key Stats: Appalachian State has won bowl games in the program’s first three years as an FBS member.

Middle Tennessee has five receivers with either as many as 34 catches or 330 yards receiving.

Prediction: Appalachian State 41, Middle Tennessee 35

APPALACHIAN STATE

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

THE MATCHUP

Boca Raton Bowl Boca Raton, FL Dec. 18 7:00 ET - ESPN

Northern Illinois Huskies Coach: Rod Carey 8-5 (6-2 MAC)

UAB Blazers

Coach: Bill Clark 10-3 (7-1 C-USA)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

UNI

STAT

UNI

Pts/G

20.7 29.3

Pts/G

21.5 17.3

UAB

UAB

Rush Yds/G

171.5

208.8

Rush Yds/G

109.7

118.8

Pass Yds/G

153.5

191.5

Pass Yds/G

238.2

181.3

Total Yds/G

325.0

400.3

Total Yds/G

347.8

300.2

Yds/Play 4.57 5.80

Yds/Play 4.61 4.87

3D Conv%

36.1

44.3

3D Conv%

TO Margin

0

-1

0-2

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

38.1

25.0

Sagarin Rank

75

77

Sagarin SOS

73

130

The odds makers see this game as being close, but we don’t. And if you’re a fan of lots of offense, this isn’t a game for you. Both teams love to grind it out and control the ball and clock. UAB does that much better than Northern Illinois. It’s remarkable what Bill Clark has done at UAB. Just after being hired, the school announced plans to drop the program and didn’t a field a team in 2015-16. After restarting the program, Clark has rebuilt it and delivered a Conference USA championship. After an embarrassing hiccup at Coastal Carolina in September, the only Blazers’ losses were at Texas A&M and at Middle Tennessee, which the Blazers avenged in the conference championship game. Spencer Brown leads the team with 1,149 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns. The MAC champion Northern Illinois Huskies are 5-3 against bowl teams this season with four of those wins by a combined eight points. So they know how to win close games.

Sutton Smith is a stud on defense with 24.5 stops behind the line, including 15 sacks. He has forced four fumbles and recovered three.

Key Stats: UAB has scored more points in the first (103) and second quarters (125) alone than the Blazers have allowed in the second half (98).

The Huskies converted three fourth downs in the MAC Championship Game against Buffalo.

Prediction: UAB 24, Northern Illinois 14

UAB

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

THE MATCHUP

Frisco Bowl Frisco, TX Dec. 19 8:00 ET - ESPN

Ohio Bobcats

Coach: Frank Solich 8-4 (6-2 MAC)

San Diego State Aztecs Coach: Rocky Long 7-5 (4-4 MWC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

OHIO

SDSU

22.3 41.2

OHIO

SDSU

Pts/G

21.8 26.7

Rush Yds/G

162.4

262.2

Rush Yds/G

94.5

135.8

Pass Yds/G

191.6

208.4

Pass Yds/G

232.9

263.8

Total Yds/G

354.0

470.6

Total Yds/G

327.4

399.6

Yds/Play 5.52 7.01

Yds/Play 4.96 6.21

3D Conv%

34.5

48.3

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-3

+13

1-2

0-0

v. Sagarin T30

40.7

44.2

Sagarin Rank

85

62

Sagarin SOS

84

117

The Ohio Bobcats are going bowling. So what else is new? Frank Solich has been at the helm at Ohio for 15 seasons and the Bobcats have been bowl eligible in 13 of those seasons. The Bobcats have a potent balanced offense behind quarterback Nathan Rourke. The QB has more than 2,200 yards passing and more than 800 yards rushing. Running back A.J. Ouellette, a first All-MAC selection, has 1,142 yards and 12 touchdowns. Offensive linemen Joe Lowery and Joe Anderson pave the way upfront for the offense. Defensive back Jaron Hagan is a top defender for the Bobcats.

San Diego State can run the ball effectively as well. Juwan Washington toted it for 870 yards and 10 touchdowns, while teammate Chase Jasmin has run for 592 yards and five scores. Linebacker Kyahva Tezino leads the Aztecs’ defense in tackles, owns 14.5 stops behind the line and is credited with 15 quarterback hurries. San Diego State is 3-4 vs. bowl teams this season. Ohio is 2-3.

Key Stats: San Diego State is 13-0-1 all-time against MAC schools, including an overtime win over Eastern Michigan this season.

The Ohio defense led the nation with 30 takeaways this season (tied with Syracuse).

Prediction: San Diego State 31, Ohio 24

SAN DIEGO STATE

OHIO

THE MATCHUP

Gasparilla Bowl Tampa, FL Dec. 20 8:00 ET - ESPN

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

South Florida Bulls

Coach: Charlie Strong 7-5 (3-5 AAC)

Marshall Thundering Herd Coach: Doc Holliday 8-4 (6-2 C-USA)

USF

MAR

29.2 27.4

Pts/G

USF

MAR

31.5 22.0

Rush Yds/G

202.5

155.8

Rush Yds/G

244.7

103.9

Pass Yds/G

241.7

228.7

Pass Yds/G

197.3

231.7

Total Yds/G

444.2

384.5

Total Yds/G

441.9

335.6

Yds/Play 6.04 5.51

Yds/Play 5.74 4.75

3D Conv%

38.3

39.1

3D Conv%

TO Margin

0

-1

0-1

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

40.5

31.9

Sagarin Rank

96

89

Sagarin SOS

83

113

When South Florida is on the field, the ball usually moves up and down the field. The Bulls’ offense averages more than 440 yards a game, as does their defense in yards allowed. Marshall will move at a slower pace, especially on defense where the Thundering Herd is particularly tough against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. On the offensive side, running back Brenden Knox has emerged as the lead running back. He ran for 204 yards in the final regular season game against Virginia Tech.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Isaiah Green missed the month of October, but is now completely healthy and averages close to 250 yards a game passing. South Florida will be taking the field on its home turf, not exactly an exciting bowl trip for most players. The Bulls have dealt with significant injuries this season, but one beneficiary is freshman running back Johnny Ford. He scampered for 120 yards against UCF and has 737 on the season and eight touchdowns.

Key Stats: Marshall isn’t afraid to keep the ball on fourth downs. The Herd has attempted 16 fourth down conversions and successful 11 times.

South Florida is 5-3 this season in NFL stadiums, including 4-2 at the Bulls’ home stadium where the Gasparilla Bowl will be played.

Prediction: Marshall 27, South Florida 24

MARSHALL

SOUTH FLORIDA

THE MATCHUP

Bahamas Bowl Nassau, Bahamas Dec. 21 12:30 ET - ESPN

FIU Panthers

Coach: Butch Davis 8-4 (6-2 C-USA)

Toldeo Rockets Coach: Jason Candle 7-5 (5-3 MAC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

FIU

STAT

FIU

Pts/G

34.6 41.1

Pts/G

24.7 30.2

TOL

TOL

Rush Yds/G

169.5

223.6

Rush Yds/G

197.9

172.3

Pass Yds/G

247.6

224.9

Pass Yds/G

188.3

257.8

Total Yds/G

417.1

448.5

Total Yds/G

386.2

430.1

Yds/Play 6.34 6.24

Yds/Play 5.64 5.78

3D Conv%

45.3

38.2

3D Conv%

41.8

32.2

TO Margin

+9

+3

Sagarin Rank

103

74

0-1

0-2

Sagarin SOS

137

110

v. Sagarin T30

Fans of offense and tropical sunshine will love this game. FIU and Toledo can both light up the scoreboard. The FIU Panthers have a couple of running backs who share the load in the rushing attack. Napoleon Maxwell and D’Vonte Price combined for 100 yards a game and have 12 touchdowns between them. Quarterback James Morgan is a 65 percent passer with 2,764 yards and 26 touchdowns. He spreads the ball around adeptly with three receivers with 444 yards or more. Defensively, the ballhawking secondary picked off 17 passes this season, one shy of the national leaders. The Rockets rely on the ground game to jump start the offense with Bryant Hoback and his 875 yards. Eli Peters has emerged as the starting quarterback and the road has been a bit rocky. He has 1,573 yards passing, but has completed just 54.6 percent of his throws. Diontae Johnson, Cody Thompson and Jon’Vea Johnson have combined for 115 catches, 1,866 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Key Stats: FIU is tied for 12th in the nation with just 12 giveaways; four interceptions and eight fumbles lost.

With seven wins this year, Toledo now has won as many as seven games for nine consecutive seasons.

Prediction: Toldeo 40, FIU 38

TOLEDO

FIU

THE MATCHUP

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Boise, ID Dec. 21 4:00 ET - ESPN

Western Michigan Broncos Coach: Tim Lester 7-5 (5-3 MAC)

BYU Cougars

Coach: Kilani Sitake 6-6

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

WMU

Pts/G

BYU

33.2 25.4

Pts/G

WMU

BYU

33.3 21.7

Rush Yds/G

204.6

154.9

Rush Yds/G

168.7

129.4

Pass Yds/G

242.6

199.6

Pass Yds/G

209.3

195.6

Total Yds/G

447.2

354.5

Total Yds/G

378.0

325.0

Yds/Play 6.06 5.29

Yds/Play 5.96 4.79

3D Conv%

36.3

36.4

3D Conv%

34.2

37.3

TO Margin

+1

+1

Sagarin Rank

101

71

0-1

0-3

Sagarin SOS

96

65

v. Sagarin T30

THE MATCHUP There are no stars on this BYU team, just a bunch of kids working together, picking each other up along the way. No quarterback, running back or receiver started all 12 games this season for the Cougars. But the future quarterback of the Cougars is the quarterback of the present in freshman and led BYU to three wins in his six starts. Wilson threw for 157 yards a game and eight touchdowns with just three interceptions. Three running backs contributed to the offense, but Matt Hadley started the final six games and ran for 383 yards for the season. The Western Michigan Broncos are perfectly content running the ball with All-MAC running back LeVante Bellamy, who has 1,172 yards, most of it running behind all-conference lineman Luke Juriga. Bellamy’s 97 yards per game ranks 25th in the nation. Backup runner Jamauri Bogan spells Bellamy admirably and added 702 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Key Stats: This Potato Bowl appearance marks the 13th season in the past 14 years that BYU has enjoyed a bowl game.

Western Michigan scored 398 points this season and gave up 400.

Prediction: BYU 20, Western Michigan 17

BYU

WESTERN MICHIGAN

Zach Wilson. The young rising star took over the starting job midseason

Birmingham Bowl Birmingham, AL Dec. 22 Noon ET - ESPN

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Coach: Dave Clawson 6-6 (3-5 ACC)

Memphis Tigers

Coach: Mike Norvell 8-5 (5-3 AAC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

WF

STAT

WF

Pts/G

32.5 43.6

Pts/G

33.3 31.5

MEM

MEM

Rush Yds/G

214.8

285.5

Rush Yds/G

191.3

169.5

Pass Yds/G

228.4

248.8

Pass Yds/G

274.0

250.8

Total Yds/G

443.2

534.3

Total Yds/G

465.3

420.4

Yds/Play 5.44 7.34

Yds/Play 5.98 5.58

3D Conv%

42.9

48.0

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-3

+4

1-2

0-3

v. Sagarin T30

42.6

40.4

Sagarin Rank

60

48

Sagarin SOS

53

103

The Memphis Tigers have one of the most high octane offenses in the nation. The Tigers’ 3,712 rushing yards is second only to Georgia Tech and Memphis’ 6.6 yards per carry is third nationally. And the 285 yards a game rushing is fourth, trailing only Tech, Army and Navy, three option teams that very seldom pass. None of those three teams feature a 3,000yard passer like Brady White of Memphis. The Tigers have two 1,000-yard runners in Darrel Henderson (1,909 yards, 22 touchdowns) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (1,1012, 15). Damonte Coxie has 1,104 yards receiving. Wake Forest can light it up as well on offense, but doesn’t have as many players with gaudy stats. Cade Carney leads with 954 yards rushing and Matt Colburn II got loose for 698. The go-to receiver is Greg Dortch who caught 89 passes for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns. Wake Forest played both Clemson and Notre Dame, two playoff participants, losing 63-3 to Clemson and 56-27 to the Irish.

Key Stats: Wake Forest rarely beats themselves with penalties. The Demon Deacons were one of the fewest penalized teams in the nation, flagged just 48 times for 498 yards.

Since the beginning of the 2017 season, Memphis is 0-4 against UCF and 18-4 against everyone else.

Prediction: Memphis 45, Wake Forest 27

MEMPHIS

WAKE FOREST

THE MATCHUP

Armed Forces Bowl Fort Worth, TX Dec. 22 3:30 ET - ESPN

Houston Cougars

Coach: Major Applewhite 8-4 (5-3 AAC)

Army Black Knights Coach: Jeff Monken 9-2

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

HOU ARMY 46.4 30.8

Pts/G

HOU ARMY 34.4 18.7

Rush Yds/G

227.7

303.0

Rush Yds/G

197.1

106.5

Pass Yds/G

300.9

81.4

Pass Yds/G

291.4

194.8

Total Yds/G

528.6

384.4

Total Yds/G

488.5

301.3

Yds/Play 6.77 5.28

Yds/Play 5.72 5.91

3D Conv%

47.3

57.1

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+6

+5

0-0

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

44.7

27.2

Sagarin Rank

61

53

Sagarin SOS

97

99

At the time of this writing, Army has its most important game of the year yet to be played. Defeating Navy would make for a successful season by the Hudson, regardless how the bowl game turns out. But the Black Knights will face one of the most prolific offenses in the nation in the Houston Cougars. There is no secret what the Knights do on offense—they run the ball, run the ball and run the ball some more. Quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. commands the offense and executes it well. He has 783 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. Running back Darnell Woolfolk has 823 yards on the ground and 14 touchdowns. Naysayers complain that Army plays a soft schedule, but the Knights were the only team to take Oklahoma to overtime this season. The two most exciting players for Houston will miss the bowl game. Quarterback D’Eriq King is out with a torn meniscus and defensive lineman Ed Oliver is skipping the game because that’s what future NFL stars do these days.

Key Stats: Jordan Asberry and Kell Walker of Army are tied for the team lead with just nine receptions each.

Houston played just four teams headed to bowls this season but scored an average of 46 points a game against South Florida, Tulane, Temple and Memphis.

Prediction: Army 28, Houston 22

ARMY

HOUSTON

THE MATCHUP

Dollar General Bowl Mobile, AL Dec. 22 7:00 ET - ESPN

Troy Tojans

Coach: Neal Brown 9-3 (7-1 Sun Belt)

Buffalo Bulls

Coach: Lance Leipold 10-3 (7-1 MAC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

TROY

Pts/G

BUF

29.8 34.8

Pts/G

TROY

BUF

21.2 24.7

Rush Yds/G

179.2

195.8

Rush Yds/G

130.9

164.8

Pass Yds/G

206.6

221.6

Pass Yds/G

214.7

184.5

Total Yds/G

385.8

417.5

Total Yds/G

345.6

349.4

Yds/Play 5.92 5.80

Yds/Play 5.01 5.20

3D Conv%

36.4

42.5

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+7

+7

0-1

0-0

v. Sagarin T30

38.5

35.8

Sagarin Rank

81

76

Sagarin SOS

127

108

Viewership for this game most likely won’t tell us the complete picture of just how entertaining this game should be. Both Buffalo and Troy have sound, balanced offenses and play a tough, rugged defense. Sure, there won’t be NFL prospects and All-Americans all over the field, and no national championship is on the line, but these teams will get after each other in what should be among the most exciting matchups of bowl season. Buffalo’s offense begins with quarterback Tyree Jackson, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year. Jackson benefits from a strong running attack with Jaret Patterson’s 946 yards and another 827 yards from Kevin Marks. Troy’s defense will be ready as the Trojan’s allowed just 3.3 yards per rush this season. And the Trojans’ 17 interceptions is just one behind the national leaders. B.J. Smith leads the Trojans’ attack with 1,093 yards on the ground. Quarterback Sawyer Smith began the season as the backup and has 1,349 yards passing.

Key Stats: Troy is one of three schools from Alabama to win at LSU since 2000 (and Auburn is not one of them).

Opponents gifted the Buffalo Bulls with 41 first downs by penalty, the most in the nation.

Prediction: Buffalo 27, Troy 25

BUFFALO

TROY

THE MATCHUP

Hawai’i Bowl Honolulu, HI Dec. 22 10:30 ET - ESPN

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Coach: Skip Holtz 7-5 (5-3 C-USA)

Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors Coach: Nick Rolovich 8-5 (5-3 MWC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

LAT

UH

24.2 32.1

Pts/G

LAT

UH

23.8 35.4

Rush Yds/G

129.4

113.5

Rush Yds/G

157.3

207.5

Pass Yds/G

246.8

321.2

Pass Yds/G

193.6

231.2

Total Yds/G

376.2

434.8

Total Yds/G

350.9

438.7

Yds/Play 5.34 6.30

Yds/Play 5.17 6.28

3D Conv%

39.9

34.8

3D Conv%

37.1

42.1

TO Margin

+3

-9

Sagarin Rank

109

115

0-2

0-1

Sagarin SOS

122

98

v. Sagarin T30

Excitement abounds when Hawai’i takes the field. The Warriors put up huge numbers offensively, and allow similar numbers on defense. Without a doubt, the defense probably never stops this offense in practice. Cole McDonald triggers this potent offense and has thrown for 3,790 yards and 35 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. McDonald has also run for 370 yards. The receiving corps is talented and deep. John Ursua has 89 catches for 1,343 yards and 16 touchdowns. Cedric Byrd added 76 catches for 939 yards and Jojo Ward has 51 for 865. Louisiana Tech has a pair of defensive backs up to the challenge. L’Jarius Sneed has broken up seven passes and picked off three. Amik Robertson has defended 12 and picked off two. Getting pressure upfront will be key in order to make McDonald uncomfortable. Jaylon Ferguson has 15 sacks and another nine hurries for the Bulldogs. Receiver Adrian Hardy is a player to watch for the Bulldogs on offense with 69 catches for 1,052 yards.

Key Stats: Hawaii has thrown for a first down 174 times this season, sixth in the nation.

Louisiana Tech’s Jaylon Ferguson is second in the nation with 23.5 stops behind the line and currently the NCAA active leader with 42.5 career sacks.

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 28, Hawai’i 27

HAWAI’I

LOUISIANA TECH

THE MATCHUP

First Responder Bowl OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET Dallas, TX Dec. 26 1:30 ET - ESPN

Boston College Eagles

Coach: Steve Addazio 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

Boise State Broncos

Coach: Bryan Harsin 10-3 (7-1 MWC)

STAT

BC

BSU

Pts/G

32.0 35.4

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET STAT

BC

BSU

Pts/G

25.7 22.1

Rush Yds/G

189.1

167.5

Rush Yds/G

154.9

122.9

Pass Yds/G

215.3

292.0

Pass Yds/G

247.9

233.0

Total Yds/G

404.3

459.5

Total Yds/G

402.8

355.9

Yds/Play 5.42 6.10

Yds/Play 5.17 5.64

3D Conv%

33.9

52.5

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+7

+11

1-2

1-1

v. Sagarin T30

37.4

31.1

Sagarin Rank

40

29

Sagarin SOS

49

70

To say that Boston College exceeded expectations this season would be an understatement, well, probably not to the coaches and players. But BC cracked the top 25 before a three-game skid ended the regular season.

AJ Dillon ran around and through ACC defenses on his way to 1,108 yards rushing. An ankle injury slowed him and caused him to miss a game. Ben Glines filled in admirably posting a 5.6 yards per carry average. Quarterback Anthony Brown wasn’t spectacular, but he was very good and that is all the Eagles asked. BC excelled on defense where Zach Allen led the way with 15 tackles behind the line and Ray Wyatt added 11.5. The Boise State offense will be a huge test for the Eagles’ defense. Brett Rypien triggers the offense and threw for 3,705 yards and 30 touchdowns. Mattison Alexander has 1,415 yards rushing for the Broncos’ balanced attack. Sean Modster leads the receiving corps with 68 catches for 978 yards and eight touchdowns. A.J. Richardson has 54 catches for 825 yards.

Key Stats: Boston College ended the regular season on a downward trend, but the Eagles defeated four bowl teams during the season, two of them—Wake Forest and Virginia Tech—on the road.

Boise State made 314 first downs this season, good enough for eighth in the nation.

Prediction: Boise State 24, Boston College 21

BOISE STATE

BOSTON COLLEGE

THE MATCHUP

Quick Lane Bowl Detroit, MI Dec. 26 5:15 ET - ESPN

Minnesota Golden Gophers Coach: P.J. Fleck 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Coach: Paul Johnson 7-5 (5-3 ACC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

MIN

GAT

28.5 35.6

Pts/G

MIN

GAT

27.9 28.9

Rush Yds/G

163.4

334.9

Rush Yds/G

170.7

149.8

Pass Yds/G

215.2

84.3

Pass Yds/G

223.7

217.9

Total Yds/G

378.6

419.3

Total Yds/G

394.3

367.8

Yds/Play 5.58 6.17

Yds/Play 6.00 5.89

3D Conv%

37.8

45.3

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-5

+9

1-2

1-2

v. Sagarin T30

37.7

49.3

Sagarin Rank

49

38

Sagarin SOS

39

61

Georgia Tech doesn’t surprise anyone offensively. At least not since Paul Johnson brought the run option attack to Atlanta. This season was no different as the Yellow Jackets led the nation in rushing and attempted fewer than 10 passes per game. But Johnson has announced he’s retiring from coaching, so could he show off a few new wrinkles in his swansong as coach? It is a good bet that the coach’s players would love nothing more than to send their coach out a winner. TaQuon Marshall and Tobias Oliver share the quarterback duties and lead the team in rushing with 896 and 807 yards, respectively. The Jekyll and Hyde Minnesota team suffered bad defeats to Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois, yet defeated Purdue and Wisconsin handily to earn a bowl trip. Redshirt freshman quarterback Tanner Morgan took over as a starter in October and threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns in his first start. His favorite target is Tyler Johnson who has 74 catches for 1,112 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Key Stats: Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan is 3-2 as a starter this season with wins over Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin and losses to Illinois and Northwestern.

Georgia Tech kicker Wesley Wells is a perfect 8-for-8 since taking over the kicking duties midway through the season, including 3-of-3 from beyond 40 yards.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 32, Minnesota 21

GEORGIA TECH

MINNESOTA

THE MATCHUP

Cheez-It Bowl Phoenix, AZ Dec. 26 9:00 ET - ESPN

California Golden Bears

Coach: Justin Wilcox 7-5 (4-5 Pac-12)

TCU Horned Frogs

Coach: Gary Patterson 6-6 (4-5 Big 12)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

CAL

TCU

22.8 24.7

Pts/G

CAL

TCU

21.3 24.4

Rush Yds/G

162.1

147.8

Rush Yds/G

132.3

141.8

Pass Yds/G

188.1

226.8

Pass Yds/G

187.1

202.6

Total Yds/G

350.2

374.6

Total Yds/G

319.4

344.4

Yds/Play 4.96 5.46

Yds/Play 4.69 4.90

3D Conv%

35.8

37.5

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-2

-6

1-2

0-4

v. Sagarin T30

35.2

31.8

Sagarin Rank

57

43

Sagarin SOS

55

21

The Cal Bears and TCU Horned Frogs will meet in what promises to be a smash-mouth, tough game that could be decided by field position and time of possession. Cal’s defensive leaders are Evan Weaver, with 77 solo tackles and nine tackles for loss and two picks, and Jordan Kunaszyk who has made 83 solo stops and 11 behind the line while causing five fumbles. The Bears’ offense lives and dies with running back Patrick Laird. The talented runner has 932 yards rushing and has caught 50 passes for another 291 yards. The TCU roster looks more like the walking wounded. Quarterback Michael Collins is questionable with a foot injury. Grayson Muehlstein is more than capable. He’s thrown for 328 yards on just 43 attempts for three touchdowns and no picks. Whoever is throwing the passes, most likely Jalen Reagor will be catching them. He has 72 catches for 1,061 yards. If Darius Anderson (598 rushing yards) is unable to play, Sewo Olonilua is a talented runner.

Key Stats: Ben Banogu leads the TCU defense with 17 tackles behind the line.

Don’t be surprised to see backup quarterback Brandon McIlwain engineer a few series for the Bears. He has a couple of 100-yard rushing games this season.

Prediction: TCU 17, Cal 10

TCU

CALIFORNIA

THE MATCHUP

Independence Bowl Shreveport, LA Dec. 27 1:30 ET - ESPN

Duke Blue Devils Coach: David Cutcliffe 7-5 (3-5 ACC)

Temple Owls Coach: Ed Foley 8-4 (7-1 AAC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

DUKE

Pts/G

TEM

27.2 35.6

Pts/G

DUKE

TEM

27.4 24.7

Rush Yds/G

162.7

164.5

Rush Yds/G

222.3

190.3

Pass Yds/G

229.9

255.8

Pass Yds/G

197.1

166.3

Total Yds/G

392.6

420.3

Total Yds/G

419.4

356.7

Yds/Play 5.40 5.85

Yds/Play 5.66 4.49

3D Conv%

41.0

38.6

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-6

+5

1-1

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

39.8

40.7

Sagarin Rank

59

46

Sagarin SOS

45

77

The Temple season began with an embarrassing loss to rival Villanova at home, but ended with a pair of 10-point victories at Houston and over South Florida before a blowout of UConn. After the regular season, head coach Geoff Collins agreed to become the next coach at Georgia Tech, leaving Ed Foley running the show for the bowl game. Temple quarterback Anthony Russo is nursing a hand injury, but should be able to play. He’s had an inconsistent season and has thrown as many interceptions (13) as touchdowns this year. Running back Ryquell Armstead is also banged up and is questionable for the game. With 1,098 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns, he’s a huge part of the Owls’ offense. Michael Dogbe leads the defense with 12.5 tackles behind the line and seven sacks. Duke quarterback Daniel Jones has developed nicely under the tutelage of coach David Cutcliffe. Jones has 2,251 yards passing and 325 rushing. Jones seems to improve each week and loves throwing to T.J. Rahming who has 63 catches for 571 yards. Deon Jackson is the leading rusher with 806 yards and also has 246 yards receiving. The Duke defense will miss Joe Giles-Harris if his knee injury doesn’t improve.

Key Stats: Duke has played 10 bowl teams this season with an even 5-5 mark.

Temple has given opponents 39 first downs with penalties, the most in the nation.

Prediction: Duke 30, Temple 20

TEMPLE

DUKE

THE MATCHUP

Pinstripe Bowl New York, NY Dec. 27 5:15 ET - ESPN

Wisconsin Badgers Coach: Paul Chryst 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)

Miami Hurricanes Coach: Mark Richt 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

WIS

MIA

29.3 30.9

Pts/G

WIS

MIA

24.3 18.2

Rush Yds/G

268.4

197.3

Rush Yds/G

157.9

127.5

Pass Yds/G

164.8

177.3

Pass Yds/G

200.8

140.8

Total Yds/G

433.2

374.6

Total Yds/G

358.8

268.3

Yds/Play 5.15 5.65

Yds/Play 4.78 4.16

3D Conv%

40.8

41.6

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-3

+3

1-2

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

38.3

23.7

Sagarin Rank

33

25

Sagarin SOS

58

60

The Miami Hurricanes didn’t expect a rematch with Wisconsin this season, and certainly didn’t expect to be playing in New York City in the dead of winter. Not good if you’re from South Florida. But the story of this game will be Jonathan Taylor, the best running back in the nation running behind one of the best offensive lines, against Miami’s defense, perhaps the best in the land. Taylor has 1,989 yards rushing, a 7.1 per carry average and 165.75 yards a game for the Badgers this season. The Miami defense sports some numbers just as gaudy. Hurricane opponents have averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt and 127.5 per game. The Hurricanes know how to get off the field, leading the nation by holding foes to 24 percent on third down. Taylor and the Hurricanes’ linebacker Shaquille Quarterman should be a dream matchup for fans. Quarterman has been a starter at Miami since he stepped foot on campus and leads the team in solo tackles. He also has 13 stops behind the line and an interception.

Key Stats: Miami has allowed just 26 points in the fourth quarter all season.

Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor ran for 101 yards at Michigan, a defense with similar numbers as Miami.

Prediction: Miami 13, Wisconsin 10

MIAMI

WISCONSIN

THE MATCHUP

Texas Bowl Houston, TX Dec. 27 9:00 ET - ESPN

Baylor Bears

Coach: Matt Rhule 6-6 (4-5 Big 12)

Vanderbilt Commodores

Coach: Derek Mason 6-6 (2-6 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

BAY

VAND

28.3 27.7

Pts/G

BAY

VAND

31.2 25.1

Rush Yds/G

159.5

157.6

Rush Yds/G

174.8

187.3

Pass Yds/G

282.2

240.2

Pass Yds/G

238.4

232.6

Total Yds/G

441.7

397.8

Total Yds/G

413.3

419.8

Yds/Play 5.84 6.06

Yds/Play 6.28 5.94

3D Conv%

43.8

35.3

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-9

+8

0-3

0-6

v. Sagarin T30

43.3

46.1

Sagarin Rank

69

51

Sagarin SOS

47

36

It isn’t easy getting Vanderbilt to a bowl game. But Derek Mason has accomplished that in his fifth season at the helm at VU. Baylor returns to the bowl scene after a horrendous 1-11 campaign in 2017. This season was oh, so close for the Commodores. VU was driving with minutes to play at Notre Dame for what could have been a go-ahead touchdown, but instead it was just a game that ended in a five-point defeat to a playoff team. Other close losses were to Florida, Kentucky and Missouri. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur leads the Commodores and is a 64 percent passer with 2,844 yards. His favorite target is Kalija Lipscomb who has 81 catches for 886 yards. Athletic tight end Jared Pinkney is a valuable weapon who causes matchup problems. Perhaps the key for VU is keeping running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn upright. He has 1,001 yards rushing, but has missed significant time with injuries. Baylor will be without its leading offensive threat, Jalen Hurd, who had minor knee surgery and will not be available.

Key Stats: Baylor will miss Jalen Hurd and his 1,155 yards from scrimmage this season.

Vanderbilt’s Kyle Shurmur finished the regular season on a roll. Over his final five games, the senior QB completed 72 percent of his throws for 12 TDs and one pick, averaging 243 yards a game.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 28, Baylor 20

VANDERBILT

BAYLOR

THE MATCHUP

THE MATCHUP

Music City Bowl Nashville, TN Dec. 28 1:30 ET - ESPN

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

Purdue Boilermakers Coach: Jeff Brohm 6-6 (5-4 Big Ten)

Auburn Tigers

Coach: Gus Malzahn 7-5 (3-5 SEC)

PUR

AUB

31.9 28.3

Pts/G

PUR

AUB

27.3 19.6

Rush Yds/G

141.2

164.1

Rush Yds/G

164.6

140.7

Pass Yds/G

317.8

209.5

Pass Yds/G

276.9

222.4

Total Yds/G

459.0

373.6

Total Yds/G

441.5

363.1

Yds/Play 6.53 5.47

Yds/Play 5.84 5.24

3D Conv%

38.7

35.8

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-3

+7

2-2

2-4

v. Sagarin T30

35.3

34.4

Sagarin Rank

36

20

Sagarin SOS

7

26

Purdue was the most talked about program since the end of the regular season. No debate over the selection of playoff teams was complete without a reference to the Boilermakers’ 49-20 win over Ohio State. And no report of any coaching vacancy was complete without the mention of the excellent job that Jeff Brohm has done at Purdue. Now with Ohio State out of the playoffs, and Brohm firmly entrenched at Purdue, the Boilermakers can go about the business of preparing for Auburn. The Boilermakers can put on an offensive show with David Blough throwing for 3,521 yards, and Rondale Moore with his 103 catches for 1,164 yards. The Auburn offense isn’t shabby, but how motivated will quarterback Jarrett Stidham be now that he has declared for the NFL Draft? Stidham has 2,421 passing yards on the season. Leading receiver Ryan Davis has 64 catches for 523 yards but has failed to get into the end zone. JaTarvious Whitlow is the leading runner with 777 yards.

Key Stats: Auburn blocked seven kicks this season, tops in the nation, and blocked four punts, tied for second in the country.

Purdue made 48 trips into the red zone this season and came away with points 44 times. That 91.7 percent success rate is good enough for eighth in the nation.

Prediction: Purdue 25, Auburn 21

AUBURN

PURDUE

THE MATCHUP

Camping World Bowl Orlando, FL Dec. 28 5:15 ET - ESPN

Syracuse Orange

Coach: Dino Babers 9-3 (6-2 ACC)

West Virginia Mountaineers

Coach: Dana Holgorsen 8-3 (6-3 Big 12)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

SYR

WV

40.8 42.3

Pts/G

SYR

WV

27.8 26.5

Rush Yds/G

207.3

162.3

Rush Yds/G

163.8

150.8

Pass Yds/G

261.5

358.1

Pass Yds/G

263.0

254.6

Total Yds/G

468.8

520.4

Total Yds/G

426.8

405.5

Yds/Play 5.69 7.19

Yds/Play 5.84 5.84

3D Conv%

40.1

44.9

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+14

+6

v. Sagarin T30

1-2

1-1

28.1

36.1

Sagarin Rank

32

12

Sagarin SOS

63

37

For 21 seasons these teams were Big East rivals, yet have met just once since then. That was in the 2012 Pinstripe Bowl and Syracuse won 38-14.

Now it’s ACC vs. Big 12 to be settled in Orlando. Both schools are certainly trending in the right direction with Syracuse enjoying a more successful season than most would have predicted, and West Virginia inching ever so closer to a Big 12 title. And both teams’ success is built around prolific offenses. West Virginia quarterback Will Grier was included in Heisman conversations for much of the season. The signal-caller has thrown for 3,864 yards and 37 touchdowns for the Mountaineers this season. Gary Jennings Jr. has 54 catches for 917 yards and 13 touchdowns, and David Sills V hauled in 61 passes for 896 yards and 15 scores. Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey has proven to be a tough winner for the Orange. He is an excellent runner with 732 rushing yards and 2,565 yards passing.

One not-so-secret weapon for the Orange is kicker Andre Szmyt, who has kicked 28 field goals this season.

Key Stats: Eleven different receivers have caught a touchdown pass for the Mountaineers this season.

Syracuse safety Andre Cisco has picked off seven passes this season, tied for most in the nation.

Prediction: West Virginia 41, Syracuse 37

WEST VIRGINIA

SYRACUSE

THE MATCHUP

Alamo Bowl San Antonio, TX Dec. 28 9:00 ET - ESPN

Iowa State Cyclones

Coach: Matt Campbell 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)

Washington State Cougars Coach: Mike Leach 10-2 (7-2 Pac-12)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

ISU

STAT

ISU

Pts/G

26.8 38.3

Pts/G

22.5 23.1

WSU

WSU

Rush Yds/G

124.3

82.1

Rush Yds/G

122.3

136.6

Pass Yds/G

234.8

379.8

Pass Yds/G

228.8

210.0

Total Yds/G

359.0

461.8

Total Yds/G

351.0

346.6

Yds/Play 5.65 6.21

Yds/Play 5.06 5.39

3D Conv%

40.3

43.8

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-1

+6

1-3

2-1

v. Sagarin T30

42.1

36.4

Sagarin Rank

42

16

Sagarin SOS

29

54

THE MATCHUP Washington State brings the nation’s most prolific passing attack to the Alamo. This offense is the Gardner Minshew show. The quarterback has thrown for 4,477 yards and 36 touchdowns, completing more than 70 percent of his passes. Minshew isn’t shy about spreading the wealth. Nine more than 560 yards and six have caught four touchdown passes or more.

That’s quite a collection of receivers for Iowa State to cover. It will be interesting to see how the Cyclones choose to defend Minshew; pressure him, or drop several defenders and force him to throw into coverage. The Cougars can’t relax on defense against Iowa State. Running back David Montgomery has 1,092 yards rushing and receiver Hakeem Butler is a big play threat with 51 catches for 1,126 yards, an average of 22 yards per reception. Freshman quarterback Brock Purdy started the final eight games and completed 66 percent of this throws for 215 yards a game.

Key Stats: Iowa State is 8-1 this season when scoring more than 14 points.

Washington State is 4-1 vs. bowl teams this season with the lone loss coming in the snow against Washington.

Prediction: Washington State 35, Iowa State 27

WASHINGTON STATE

IOWA STATE

receivers have as many as 25 catches this season, four receivers have

Peach Bowl

Atlanta, GA Dec. 29 Noon ET - ESPN

Florida Gators Coach: Dan Mullen 9-3 (5-3 SEC)

Michigan Wolverines Coach: Jim Harbaugh 10-2 (8-1 Big Ten)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

FLA

MICH

34.5 36.8

Pts/G

FLA

MICH

20.4 17.6

Rush Yds/G

209.5

214.3

Rush Yds/G

169.7

116.6

Pass Yds/G

217.2

212.9

Pass Yds/G

175.1

145.9

Total Yds/G

426.7

427.3

Total Yds/G

344.8

262.5

Yds/Play 6.20 6.18

Yds/Play 5.14 4.39

3D Conv%

40.8

49.4

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+10

+7

v. Sagarin T30

3-3

2-2

37.2

32.1

Sagarin Rank

19

5

Sagarin SOS

34

30

The Michigan Wolverines took tremendous pride in their defensive prowess this season, leading the nation in the fewest yards allowed. Then rival Ohio State hung 62 points on the Maize and Blue. Coach Jim Harbaugh will certainly be in search of some redemption in the bowl game. Florida is still rebuilding its program under coach Dan Mullen, and the extra December practices will help tremendously. Both Michigan and Florida will approach this game the old-fashioned way on offense—establish the run and set up the pass. Michigan will do that behind Karan Higdon, who has 1,178 yards rushing for the season. Quarterback Shea Patterson is generally accurate, but needs some room to throw. The running game may just be even more important to the Gators. Lamical Perine is the leading runner with 750 yards, and Florida doesn’t want to put the game in the hand of quarterback Feleipe Franks. The vaunted Michigan defense is led

by All-America linebacker Devin Bush.

Key Stats: There are no Florida receivers averaging as many as 37 yards receiving per game.

The Wolverine’s junior linebacker Josh Uche has just 10 solo tackles on the season, but eight of them have come behind the line, including seven sacks.

Prediction: Michigan 34, Florida 6

MICHIGAN

FLORIDA

THE MATCHUP

Belk Bowl

Charlotte, NC Dec. 29 Noon ET - ABC

Virginia Cavaliers

Coach: Bronco Mendenhall 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

South Carolina Gamecocks

Coach: Will Muschamp 7-5 (4-4 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

VIR

STAT

VIR

Pts/G

28.5 32.6

Pts/G

21.8 27.2

SC

SC

Rush Yds/G

170.6

162.8

Rush Yds/G

157.1

194.5

Pass Yds/G

211.9

277.4

Pass Yds/G

180.1

230.8

Total Yds/G

382.5

440.2

Total Yds/G

337.2

425.3

Yds/Play 5.90 6.38

Yds/Play 5.35 5.60

3D Conv%

47.4

43.9

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+1

-4

1-1

1-5

v. Sagarin T30

41.7

36.4

Sagarin Rank

54

28

Sagarin SOS

64

17

THE MATCHUP The Belk Bowl features two reasonably close teams, each with its own story. South Carolina is kind of stuck in the middle of the SEC East, not quite good enough to challenge for the title, but significantly better than the bottom feeders. The Virginia program is in the best shape it’s been in some bowl game is probably much more exciting for the Virginia players than

VIRGINIA

for the Gamecocks of South Carolina. Junior quarterback Bryce Perkins has been the primary reason for Virginia’s success this season. A transfer from Arizona Western CC after beginning his career at Arizona State, Perkins immediately took control of the offense. He threw for 2,472 yards and ran for 842 and nine touchdowns. Jake Bentley triggers the Gamecocks’ attack and loves to throw to Deebo Samuel who caught 62 passes for 882 yards. Samuel is often open because defenses double-team Bryan Edwards, who caught 52 for 809 yards.

Key Stats: Virginia doesn’t shoot itself in the foot very often. The Cavaliers were penalized just 56 times this season.

The Gamecocks have now gone bowling 10 times in the past 11 seasons.

Prediction: Virginia 27, South Carolina 19

SOUTH CAROLINA

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Arizona Bowl Tucson, AZ Dec. 29 1:15 ET - CBSSN

Nevada Wolf Pack

Coach: Jay Norvell 7-5 (5-3 MWC)

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Coach: Blake Anderson 8-4 (5-3 Sun Belt)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

NEV

ASU

32.3 31.8

Pts/G

NEV

ASU

28.1 26.4

Rush Yds/G

157.6

181.5

Rush Yds/G

135.2

200.7

Pass Yds/G

285.3

282.0

Pass Yds/G

243.1

175.9

Total Yds/G

442.9

463.5

Total Yds/G

378.3

376.6

Yds/Play 6.22 6.27

Yds/Play 5.24 5.73

3D Conv%

33.7

42.6

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-7

+5

0-2

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

32.2

37.4

Sagarin Rank

91

84

Sagarin SOS

91

126

One of the coolest aspects of bowl season is that teams like Arkansas State and Nevada can face each other and prove to themselves—and the rest of the college football world—just how good they are. Many of these teams spend the early part of the season getting beaten up by the teams of the Power 5 conferences, then enjoy whipping up on their conference brethren. The truth is that neither is usually a good barometer for just how good a team really is. For good measure, this game will feature a couple of 3,000-yard passers. Justice Hansen of Arkansas State has thrown for 3,172 yards with 27 touchdowns and just six picks. He also added 396 yards rushing. Nevada has Ty Gangi who has 3,131 yards through the air.

Gangi generally targets McLane Mannix or Kaleb Fossum. Mannis has 50 catches for 875 yards and Fossum has 69 for 725. Kirk Merritt is clearly Hansen’s go-to receiver. Merritt has 75 catches for 939 yards. The Red Wolves may have the best defensive player in the game in Ronhee Bingham, who has 18.5 stops behind the line.

Key Stats: Nevada is 14th in the nation in red zone defense, turning opponents away with no points 26 percent of the time.

The highest-ranked team that Arkansas State defeated this season is Tulsa, ranked No. 112 in the Sagarin rankings.

Prediction: Nevada 24, Arkansas State 13

ARKANSAS STATE

NEVADA

THE MATCHUP

Cotton Bowl Arlington, TX Dec. 29 4:00 ET - ESPN

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Coach: Brian Kelly 12-0

Clemson Tigers

Coach: Dabo Swinney 13-0 (8-0 ACC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

ND

STAT

ND

Pts/G

33.8 45.4

Pts/G

17.3 13.7

CLEM

CLEM

Rush Yds/G

190.5

259.8

Rush Yds/G

133.5

93.0

Pass Yds/G

265.6

270.1

Pass Yds/G

198.0

183.8

Total Yds/G

456.1

529.8

Total Yds/G

331.5

276.8

Yds/Play 6.18 7.37

Yds/Play 4.53 4.08

3D Conv%

44.3

43.8

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+5

+4

2-0

3-0

v. Sagarin T30

37.8

28.2

Sagarin Rank

7

2

Sagarin SOS

42

48

THE MATCHUP We haven’t heard the end of arguments that Notre Dame is not one of the four best teams in college football this season. And we probably never will. However, the Irish are one of the four most deserving based on their accomplishments this season. The Fighting Irish were undefeated with improve behind Ian Book, who took over as the starter late in September after the offense failed to produce more than 24 points in any of its first three games. Running back Dexter Williams was suspended for the first three games, and was a huge boost to the offense. In only eight games, he has more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage. But Book and Williams haven’t faced a defensive line that remotely resembles the group that Clemson runs out there. Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant have combined for 45 tackles behind the line and 22 sacks.

Backup Xavier Thomas has 9.5 and three.

Key Stats: Clemson has scored more points in the second quarter this season (177) than its opponents have scored all season (168).

Notre Dame has allowed just seven touchdown passes this season.

Prediction: Clemson 33, Notre Dame 13

CLEMSON

NOTRE DAME

Brandon Wimbush at quarterback this season, but the offense seemed to

THE MATCHUP

Orange Bowl

Miami Gardens, FL Dec. 29 8:00 ET - ESPN

Oklahoma Sooners

Coach: Lincoln Riley 12-1 (8-1 Big 12)

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coach: Nick Saban 13-0 (8-0 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

OK

STAT

OK

Pts/G

49.5 47.9

Pts/G

32.4 14.8

ALA

ALA

Rush Yds/G

253.9

202.2

Rush Yds/G

156.7

117.0

Pass Yds/G

324.0

325.5

Pass Yds/G

291.4

178.4

Total Yds/G

577.9

527.6

Total Yds/G

448.1

295.4

Yds/Play 8.75 7.92

Yds/Play 6.03 4.52

3D Conv%

51.2

52.8

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-2

+8

2-1

6-0

v. Sagarin T30

45.2

30.9

Sagarin Rank

6

1

Sagarin SOS

31

44

College football fans have been waiting for the Alabama-Clemson national championship game since the middle of September. Now it’s just a few clicks away. Until the recent SEC Championship Game win over Georgia, no team had played Alabama within 22 points this season. So there was some question how the Tide would respond in a high-pressure, game-onthe-line situation. The answer is that the more pressure, the better their performance. Coach Nick Saban will be asked repeatedly which quarterback will start against Oklahoma. Rest assured that Tua Tagovailoa will start if healthy, and perhaps the second-best quarterback in the SEC, Jalen Hurts, will be well-prepared. Oklahoma is an interesting foe for the Tide. The elite passing attack of the Sooners, led by baseball star-quarterback-Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, will test the Tide’s secondary.

Murray completed two of four passes for 21 yards against Alabama in 2015 as a backup at Texas A&M. The Sooners will light up the scoreboard, but Oklahoma’s defense may not force a punt in this game.

Key Stats: Alabama has eight wins over bowl teams this season with an average margin of victory of more than 29 points.

Oklahoma was held to fewer than 37 points just once this season. Army held the Sooners to 21 points in regulation before OU won 28-21 in overtime back on September 22.

Prediction: Alabama 35, Oklahoma 27

ALABAMA

OKLAHOMA

THE MATCHUP

Military Bowl Annapolis, MD Dec. 31 Noon ET - ESPN

Virginia Tech Hokies Coach: Justin Fuente 6-6 (4-4 ACC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Cincinnati Bearcats Pts/G Coach: Luke Fickell 10-2 (6-2 AAC)

VAT

CIN

29.8 34.9

Pts/G

VAT

CIN

30.7 16.1

Rush Yds/G

170.2

238.1

Rush Yds/G

206.5

103.8

Pass Yds/G

256.8

220.1

Pass Yds/G

230.3

188.2

Total Yds/G

426.9

458.2

Total Yds/G

436.8

291.9

Yds/Play 5.87 6.07

Yds/Play 6.36 4.59

3D Conv%

36.9

48.9

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+4

-1

0-2

0-1

v. Sagarin T30

38.2

27.2

Sagarin Rank

63

39

Sagarin SOS

59

93

The last time Virginia Tech missed a bowl was in 1992, That was the first year of the SEC Championship Game, just to add some perspective. Oh, and Bill Clinton was about to sworn in as President. But the Hokies needed a makeup game with Marshall (which replaced a September game with East Carolina cancelled due to Hurricane Florence) in order to secure their sixth win. Cincinnati is returning to bowl action after a two-year hiatus. Cincinnati will bring a solid running game to the party led by Michael Warren and his 1,163 yards and 17 touchdowns. Quarterback Desmond Ridder accumulated 574 rushing yards to complement Warren. Ridder has thrown for 2,359 yards and 19 touchdowns. Kahlil Lewis is the leading receiver with 55 catches for 768 yards and nine touchdowns. Virginia Tech Ryan Willis has been inconsistent this season, but still thrown for 2,497 yards and rushed for 321. His favorite target, Damon Hazelton, is listed as questionable for the game, though.

Key Stats: Virginia Tech kicker Brian Johnson is a perfect 8-for-8 on field goal attempts inside 40 yards this season. He’s made just three of eight from beyond 40 yards with a career long of 45.

Cincinnati opponents gifted the Bearcats with first downs by penalty just 13 times this season. Only five teams received fewer freebies.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Virginia Tech 10

CINCINNATI

VIRGINIA TECH

THE MATCHUP

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX Dec. 31 2:00 ET - CBS

Pittsburgh Panthers Coach: Pat Narduzzi 7-6 (6-2 ACC)

Stanford Cardinal Coach: David Shaw 8-4 (6-3 Pac-12)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

PITT

STAN

26.6 29.6

Pts/G

PITT

STAN

28.8 23.8

Rush Yds/G

229.5

108.3

Rush Yds/G

184.1

140.9

Pass Yds/G

142.2

287.1

Pass Yds/G

217.3

274.7

Total Yds/G

371.8

395.4

Total Yds/G

401.4

415.6

Yds/Play 5.92 6.27

Yds/Play 5.94 5.73

3D Conv%

37.3

41.3

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+2

+3

0-5

0-4

v. Sagarin T30

41.7

38.5

Sagarin Rank

50

22

Sagarin SOS

3

16

Perhaps the best summation of this game would be that Pittsburgh loves to run it, Stanford throws it and neither team defends it. So that just might be a recipe for good shootout between two near-miss teams within their respective conferences. Stanford finished a game behind Washington and Washington State in the Pac-12 North, and Pittsburgh lost the ACC Championship Game to Clemson. The Panthers boast the 18th best running attack in the nation behind two 1,000-yard runners. Qadree Ollison has 1,190 yards, averaging 6.3 yards a carry. Darrin Hall has 1,021 yards, compiled at a 7.5 yards/carry clip. Quarterback Kenny Pickett can run as well, adding 195 yards on the ground to complement his 141 yards a game passing. K.J. Costello triggers the passing attack for the Cardinal. He’s thrown for 3,435 yards and 29 touchdowns. He spreads the ball around to JJ Arcega-Whiteside (60 catches, 969 yards), Trenton Irwin (60, 685) and Kaden Smith (47, 635), who is questionable for the game.

Key Stats: Stanford doesn’t give much to opponents in the way of penalties. Cardinal foes were given just 13 first downs by penalty, tied for ninth fewest in the nation.

On the other hand, the Panthers can be in a rather giving mood, allowing 29 first downs to opponents by penalty.

Prediction: Stanford 21, Pittsburgh 15

STANFORD

PITTSBURGH

THE MATCHUP

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Redbox Bowl Santa Clara, CA Dec. 31 3:00 ET - Fox

Michigan State Spartans

Coach: Mark Dantonio 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)

Oregon Ducks

Coach: Mario Cristobal 8-4 (5-4 Pac-12)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

MSU

ORE

19.8 37.2

MSU

ORE

Pts/G

18.0 27.0

Rush Yds/G

122.0

191.3

Rush Yds/G

81.3

143.1

Pass Yds/G

221.0

254.7

Pass Yds/G

230.2

247.4

Total Yds/G

343.0

445.9

Total Yds/G

311.5

390.5

Yds/Play 4.70 6.03

Yds/Play 4.62 5.39

3D Conv%

33.2

45.1

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+2

+4

1-2

1-3

v. Sagarin T30

31.5

37.2

Sagarin Rank

30

31

Sagarin SOS

8

62

There will be a new meaning of “Going Green” in Santa Clara leading up to this game. All fans will be decked out in green, although one side of the stadium will be a shade darker than the other. On the field this game matches the prolific offense of Oregon against the stifling defense of Michigan State and mediocre units (at best) going the other direction.

Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is listed as questionable for the game.

That would be a huge loss for the Ducks. He has 2,985 passing yards and makes the offense go. Dillon Mitchell is a big-time receiver with 69 catches for 1,114 yards. The Michigan State defense is led by Joe Bachie, the unit’s leading tackler, and Kenny Willekes. Bachie has 3.5 stops behind the line and has forced three fumbles. Willekes is an All-Big Ten selection and has 20.5 tackles for a loss and 12 quarterback hurries. Cornerback Justin Layne also is an all-conference honoree. MSU hasn’t had consistent quarterback play. Brian Lewerke, with eight TDs and 10 picks, gave way to Rocky Lombardi, who also struggled.

Key Stats: Michigan State has held opponents to 21 points or less nine times this season. The Spartans are 6-3 in those games.

Oregon has four players with as many as three interceptions; as if Michigan State quarterbacks didn’t have enough trouble keeping the ball away from defenders.

Prediction: Oregon 34, Michigan State 19

OREGON

MICHIGAN STATE

THE MATCHUP

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Liberty Bowl Memphis, TN Dec. 31 3:45 ET - ESPN

Oklahoma State Cowboys Coach: Matt Gundy 6-6 (3-6 Big 12)

Missouri Tigers

Coach: Barry Odom 8-4 (4-4 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

OSU

MO

38.4 36.9

Pts/G

OSU

MO

32.4 24.4

Rush Yds/G

192.1

197.3

Rush Yds/G

178.8

122.9

Pass Yds/G

307.9

271.6

Pass Yds/G

258.3

256.1

Total Yds/G

500.0

468.8

Total Yds/G

437.1

379.0

Yds/Play 6.44 6.09

Yds/Play 5.87 5.62

3D Conv%

43.3

46.0

3D Conv%

TO Margin

-8

0

3-1

1-4

v. Sagarin T30

36.3

31.8

Sagarin Rank

35

13

Sagarin SOS

41

14

The Oklahoma State Cowboys won shootouts with Texas and West Virginia, and lost by one point in a wild game with Oklahoma. But the Cowboys couldn’t finish the deal against the middle-of-the-pack teams in the Big 12 with losses to Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor. The Cowboys showed they could light it up offensively as well as allowing opponents to light it up. Most of the talk around Missouri surrounds the impending transfer of former Clemson starter Kelly Bryant to Columbia. But the Tigers still have Drew Lock, one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, and a potent offense of their own. Lock’s supporting cast includes running back Larry Rountree with 1,1012 yards. Taylor Cornelius controls the Cowboys’ offense, but completed just 59 percent of his passes for 3,642 yards and 28 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Tylan Wallace is a big-time receiver with 79 receptions for 1,408 yards. The Cowboys will miss Justice Hill, who is out with a rib injury, and his 930 rushing yards. Chuba Hubbard will try to fill Hill’s shoes.

Key Stats: The Oklahoma State offense advanced into the red zone 63 times this season, tied with Oklahoma for the most in the Big 12 and seventh in the nation.

Missouri lost six fumbles this season and recovered six opponents’ fumbles. The Tigers threw eight interceptions and the defense picked off eight passes.

Prediction: Missouri 45, Oklahoma State 36

MISSOURI

OKLAHOMA STATE

THE MATCHUP

Holiday Bowl San Diego, CA Dec. 31 7:00 ET - FS1

Northwestern Wildcats

Coach: Pat Fitzgerald 8-5 (8-1 Big Ten)

Utah Utes

Coach: Kyle Whittingham 9-4 (6-3 Pac-12)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

NW

STAT

NW

Pts/G

23.7 28.7

Pts/G

23.6 18.5

UTAH

UTAH

Rush Yds/G

117.5

186.5

Rush Yds/G

132.6

101.8

Pass Yds/G

239.3

209.2

Pass Yds/G

258.1

213.3

Total Yds/G

356.8

395.7

Total Yds/G

390.7

315.1

Yds/Play 4.75 5.75

Yds/Play 5.61 4.62

3D Conv%

39.9

37.8

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+2

0

2-3

1-3

v. Sagarin T30

36.6

34.2

Sagarin Rank

37

15

Sagarin SOS

9

18

The Holiday Bowl will most likely be the lowest scoring bowl game of the season. Northwestern and Utah both have plodding—but efficient—offenses and stingy defenses. This could be considered a Rose Bowl consolation prize given that both teams lost their respective championship games that could have landed them at Pasadena. Utah’s offense has become more methodical since starting quarterback Tyler Huntley was lost to a knee injury. Jason Shelley has started the last four games and completed 59.6 percent of his passes. He threw three picks against Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game, so he’s still learning. It certainly doesn’t help Shelley that 1,000-yard runner Zack Moss is out with an ankle injury, and leading receiver Britain Covey is nursing a knee injury and may not play. Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson has thrown for 2,942 yards, but has just 15 touchdowns strikes and 14 picks. Flynn Nagel has hauled in 66 passes for 759 yards.

Key Stats: Northwestern lost just three fumbles this season; only Mississippi State lost fewer.

With injuries to Zack Moss and Tyler Huntley, the Utes will be without 57.6 percent of their rushing yards, 65.7 percent of their passing yards, and possibly 25 percent of their receiving yards if Britain Covey doesn’t play.

Prediction: Northwestern 16, Utah 9

UTAH

NORTHWESTERN

THE MATCHUP

Gator Bowl Jacksonville, FL Dec. 31 7:30 ET - ESPN

NC State Wolfpack Coach: Dave Doeren 9-3 (5-3 ACC)

Texas A&M Aggies Coach: Jimbo Fisher 8-4 (5-3 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

NCST

A&M

35.6 34.7

Pts/G

NCST

A&M

22.7 26.3

Rush Yds/G

143.7

203.8

Rush Yds/G

109.1

92.0

Pass Yds/G

327.7

262.0

Pass Yds/G

271.2

262.7

Total Yds/G

471.3

465.8

Total Yds/G

380.3

354.7

Yds/Play 6.22 6.08

Yds/Play 5.71 5.94

3D Conv%

50.9

40.6

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+2

-8

0-1

3-4

v. Sagarin T30

32.3

32.9

Sagarin Rank

26

17

Sagarin SOS

68

4

NC State is playing in its fifth consecutive bowl and trying to reach double-digit wins for just the second time in school history. But it must accomplish that without two of its standout players who have elected to skip the bowl game. Leading tackler Germaine Pratt doesn’t want to risk another knee injury and has signed with an agent. Kelvin Harmon, the ACC’s leading receiver with 1,186 yards, is also excusing himself from the bowl game. Thankfully, quarterback Ryan Finley plans on attending. He has thrown for 3,789 yards and 24 touchdowns. Finley still has the services of junior receiver Jokobi Meyers who has 89 catches for 1,028 yards. Expect sophomore Emeka Emezie to have a larger role. Reggie Gallaspy Jr. ran for more than 1,000 yards, so the offense should be fine. Texas A&M typically relies on running back Trayveon Williams and his 1,524 yards rushing. But a sub-par Wolfpack secondary will be enticing for quarterback Kellen Mond to show off his passing skills.

Key Stats: Texas A&M’s defense limited opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry this season. All the more reason for NC State to air it out.

NC State was penalized just 56 times this season. Only 15 schools were flagged fewer times.

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, NC State 17

TEXAS A&M

NC STATE

THE MATCHUP

Outback Bowl Tampa, FL Jan. 1 Noon ET - ESPN2

Iowa Hawkeyes

Coach: Kirk Ferentz 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

Mississippi State Bulldogs Coach: Joe Moorhead 8-4 (4-4 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

IOWA

MSU

31.5 29.1

Pts/G

IOWA

MSU

17.4 12.0

Rush Yds/G

162.0

226.4

Rush Yds/G

102.8

104.3

Pass Yds/G

227.7

175.6

Pass Yds/G

186.8

164.2

Total Yds/G

389.7

402.0

Total Yds/G

289.6

268.4

Yds/Play 5.53 6.32

Yds/Play 4.55 4.14

3D Conv%

45.6

42.9

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+8

+8

0-1

2-4

v. Sagarin T30

34.8

27.7

Sagarin Rank

11

8

Sagarin SOS

50

32

Defense will be on full display in Tampa on New Year’s Day. Both Iowa and Mississippi State can shut down a running game. The Bulldogs employ a more versatile rushing attack, so that might give the Bullies a small advantage. However, the Hawkeyes probably throw it a little better, especially with tight end T.J. Hockenson (2018 Mackey Award winner) causing matchup problems. Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley is a 58.6 percent passer, so the Hawkeyes won’t put the game in his hands if they can prevent it. Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a run-first QB. He has more than 1,000 rushing this season and 12 touchdowns. Kylin Hill has 691 yards and is second on the team. Fitzgerald is just a 52.6 percent thrower and only one MSU receiver has as many as 20 catches, so don’t expect State to air it out. Defensively, Iowa’s leading tackler is Jake Gervase and A.J. Epenesa is a playmaker with 15.5 stops behind the line.

MSU has a pair of second-team All-Americans in safety Johnathan Abram and lineman Jeffery Simmons.

Key Stats: Mississippi State ranks second in the nation in yards allowed per play.

Iowa ranks ninth nationally in yards allowed per play.

Prediction: Mississippi State 19, Iowa 16

IOWA

MISSISSIPPI STATE

THE MATCHUP

Citrus Bowl Orlando, FL Jan. 1 1:00 ET - ABC

Kentucky Wildcats

Coach: Mark Stoops 9-3 (5-3 SEC)

Penn State Nittany Lions

Coach: James Franklin 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

KY

STAT

KY

Pts/G

26.6 34.6

Pts/G

16.3 20.0

PSU

PSU

Rush Yds/G

201.3

208.6

Rush Yds/G

150.8

168.4

Pass Yds/G

164.8

216.1

Pass Yds/G

181.3

186.5

Total Yds/G

366.2

424.7

Total Yds/G

332.2

354.9

Yds/Play 5.67 6.18

Yds/Play 5.23 4.69

3D Conv%

41.5

37.9

3D Conv%

TO Margin

0

+1

4-2

1-3

v. Sagarin T30

39.0

34.5

Sagarin Rank

27

10

Sagarin SOS

35

38

This matchup features a football Blue Blood against a relatively newcomer to football success. It’s kind of like Kentucky and Penn State playing in the Sweet 16 of the basketball tournament—one certainly belongs, the other seems out of place. But there’s nothing out of place about Kentucky being in this position in football. The Wildcats play a tough, aggressive kind of defense and have a terrific running game featuring Benny Snell Jr. The talented runner has 1,305 yards even though SEC teams have been gameplanning to stop him all season. Josh Allen is a super stud on defense. He lines up all over the place and is the leading tackler. He has 18.5 stops behind the line and is projected to be a top-5 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Penn State is a run-first team as well behind running back Miles Sanders (1,223 yards) and quarterback Trace McSorley (723 yards, 11 TDs.). McSorley can be erratic throwing the ball, but he has 2,284 passing yards and only six picks. This game will test these teams’ patience and ability to sustain drives.

Key Stats: Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos and Shareef Miller have combined for 59 solo stops on defense, and 34 of them have been for a loss.

Kentucky’s Benny Snell Jr. ran for 340 yards combined against Florida and Mississippi State this season. Those two schools give up just 273 rushing yards per game, combined.

Prediction: Penn State 24, Kentucky 20

PENN STATE

KENTUCKY

THE MATCHUP

Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ Jan. 1 1:00 ET - ESPN

UCF Knights

Coach: Josh Heupel 12-0 (8-0 AAC)

LSU Tigers

Coach: Ed Orgeron 9-3 (5-3 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

UCF

LSU

44.2 31.8

Pts/G

UCF

LSU

21.3 20.9

Rush Yds/G

276.5

174.7

Rush Yds/G

227.4

139.3

Pass Yds/G

268.9

214.7

Pass Yds/G

196.2

206.8

Total Yds/G

545.4

389.3

Total Yds/G

423.6

346.1

Yds/Play 7.08 5.41

Yds/Play 5.38 4.86

3D Conv%

51.3

39.0

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+14

+12

v. Sagarin T30

0-0

4-3

41.1

35.0

Sagarin Rank

18

14

Sagarin SOS

90

5

Last season the UCF Knights defeated the favored Auburn Tigers 34-27 in the Peach Bowl, proving the Knights could play with the big boys. Perhaps, Auburn wasn’t motivated, perhaps there was a surprise element that is now long gone. But the Knights have won 25 straight games and are not interested in that steak ending. The LSU defense will be the toughest the Knights have faced this season and they’ll have to play without their star quarterback, McKenzie Milton, who suffered a horrific leg injury against South Florida. Quarterback Darriel Mack ran for 120 yards in his first start of the season in October, and was named MVP of the AAC Championship Game, so the offense is in good hands. LSU will put the ball in Nick Broussette’s hands. He has 922 yards rushing. This game could hinge on LSU’s ability to run the ball. LSU has two of the best defensive players in the nation in safety Grant Delpit and linebacker Devin White. Delpit has five interceptions and 9.5 tackles behind the line.

Key Stats: The UCF defense averages eight tackles for loss per game, tied for sixth in the nation.

The LSU defense has collected 16 interceptions this season; only 10 schools have more.

Prediction: LSU 20, UCF 19

LSU

UCF

THE MATCHUP

Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA Jan. 1 5:00 ET - ESPN

Washington Huskies Coach: Chris Petersen 10-3 (7-2 Pac-12)

Ohio State Buckeyes Coach: Urban Meyer 12-1 (8-1 Big Ten)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

WASH

Pts/G

OSU

26.6 43.5

WASH

Pts/G

OSU

15.5 25.7

Rush Yds/G

179.9

175.8

Rush Yds/G

116.4

160.5

Pass Yds/G

232.5

373.0

Pass Yds/G

185.4

239.8

Total Yds/G

412.4

548.8

Total Yds/G

301.8

400.3

Yds/Play 6.11 6.72

Yds/Play 4.62 5.86

3D Conv%

45.4

48.2

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+3

+6

4-1

3-0

v. Sagarin T30

38.8

31.4

Sagarin Rank

9

4

Sagarin SOS

24

40

Typically when Ohio State takes the field, the ball moves up and down the gridiron at a frenetic pace—in both directions. When the Washington Huskies are playing, it’s a grind—both ways. So, something must give, right? But enough about football. The Ohio State-Washington matchup can’t be covered without addressing the sudden resignation of OSU coach Urban Meyer and what that might mean for the Rose Bowl. There could be some “let’s send our coach out a winner” mentality on the players’ part, but it’s pretty much business as usual for game prep. Dwayne Haskins is a premier quarterback with 4,580 yards passing and a 70 percent completion rate. He’s complemented by J.K. Dobbins’ 1,029 rushing yards, giving the Buckeyes quite an explosive offense. Washington’s Jake Browning is an efficient passer with 2,879 yards. But the Huskies would love to see running back Myles Gaskin have a big day. He has 1,147 yards on the season.

Key Stats: The Washington Huskies have scored more points in the first half (217) than their opponents have scored all season (201).

Ohio State is third in the nation behind Oklahoma and Alabama in passing efficiency.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Washington 19

OHIO STATE

WASHINGTON

THE MATCHUP

Sugar Bowl New Orleans, LA Jan. 1 8:45 ET - ESPN

Texas Longhorns Coach: Tom Herman 9-4 (7-2 Big 12)

Georgia Bulldogs Coach: Kirby Smart 11-2 (7-1 SEC)

OFFENSIVE STAT SHEET

DEFENSIVE STAT SHEET

STAT

STAT

Pts/G

TEX

GA

31.3 39.2

Pts/G

TEX

GA

26.2 18.5

Rush Yds/G

151.2

251.6

Rush Yds/G

135.9

130.6

Pass Yds/G

264.5

227.2

Pass Yds/G

265.2

180.5

Total Yds/G

415.6

478.8

Total Yds/G

401.2

311.2

Yds/Play 5.58 7.25

Yds/Play 5.68 4.98

3D Conv%

46.3

47.7

3D Conv%

TO Margin

+7

+5

1-2

5-2

v. Sagarin T30

44.2

32.6

Sagarin Rank

21

3

Sagarin SOS

12

6

In the span of a little more than 13 months, Georgia has played toe-totoe with Alabama twice, and led for 281 of the 290 snaps taken in the two games combined. Bulldog fans believe that their men in sliver britches are the second-best team in the land once again this year. The Georgia offense is certainly one of the most potent in the land. Quarterback Jake Fromm enjoys weapons at receiver in Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley, as well as tight end Isaac Nauta. Running backs D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield both average more than 6.5 yards a carry. Holyfield needs just 44 yards to join Swift as a 1,000-yard runner. The Bulldogs face a dramatically improved team from the squad that lost at Maryland on September 1. Including that debacle, the three Texas regular-season losses were by a combined nine points. Defense is certainly not Texas’s strength, so the Longhorns must be efficient on offense and catch a few breaks from the Georgia offense in order to stay in this game if Georgia has anything left emotionally to be fired up after such a crushing loss to Alabama.

Key Stats: Georgia has more rushing touchdowns (30) and more passing touchdowns (31) than the defense has allowed (29).

Texas was flagged 97 times this season. Only eight FBS teams were penalized more than the Longhorns.

Prediction: Georgia 20, Texas 13

GEORGIA

TEXAS

THE MATCHUP

College Foot ball Playoff

January 7, 2019 8:00 P.M.

THE SIDELINES