Jilly Gibson goes dining with Trent and Catherine | Full federal election coverage
May 2022 Issue 13
News and views for North Sydney’s residential and business communities
www.northsydneysun.com.au
EXCLUSIVE POLL: ALP emerges as biggest threat to Trent Zimmerman By Grahame Lynch Labor’s Catherine Renshaw has emerged as the most likely candidate to successfully challenge Liberal North Sydney incumbent Trent Zimmerman according to a new poll. A survey of 507 voters conducted by Compass Polling in the week of May 6 reveals that if an election were held that week, the result would have been too close to call. Unweighted results showed that Zimmerman’s primary would have been 35%, ahead of Labor on 25%, Greens’ candidate Heather Armstrong on 15% and high profile independent Kylea Tink on 12%. The rise of the Greens over the highly fancied independent Tink is the result of strong support from women: 22% support the Greens, just one percent behind the 23% support for Labor. Tink is scoring 13% of women. By contrast, the Greens are just scoring 7% of men. When the results are weighted for the age distribution of the electorate as measured by the last census, the Liberal vote rises to 40.5%, Labor falls to 21.6%, the Greens fall to 12.9% and Tink rises to 13.6%. Age weighting is a common device used in online polling analysis to correct for the bias to younger voters. The poll also asked respondents to express their likely preferences. Overall, about 65% of preferences would flow to Labor, according to the poll, placing Renshaw in the 51% range on two party preferred unweighted and 46% when weighted. With a confidence range of around 5%, this indicates that the result is too close to call. The poll shows that Labor and Greens are maintaining their historical level of support in the electorate while Tink and minor party candidates are picking up share at the expense of the Liberal primary vote. The poll is the first in North Sydney to measure the support for all ten nominated candidates, as well as to cross-reference the main issues and political values of respondents. It confirms that the electorate has become less predictable in the last three years, as evidenced by the 18% swing against the Liberals in the Willoughby state by-election as well as the ascension of Labor candidates to
From left: ALP candidate Catherine Renshaw, independent Kylea Tink, Liberal Trent Zimmerman and Green Heather Armstrong
Intended first preference for North Sydney Candidate
Total
Women
Men
Trent Zimmerman, Liberal Party
34.9%
31.3%
Catherine Renshaw, ALP
25.0%
18Ͳ44
45+
SelfͲidenƟĮed NESB Progressive voters
Total when age weighted
38.8% 26.7% 54.3% 49.4%
26.4%
33.8%
40.5%
23.0%
27.2% 30.3% 12.6% 23.8%
28.8%
35.3%
21.6%
Heather Armstrong, Greens 15.0%
22.3%
7.2%
22.9%
11.8%
12.9%
Kylea Tink, Independent
12.4%
12.9%
12.0% 10.7% 16.5% 11.0%
12.3%
8.8%
13.6%
William Bourke, SAP
3.0%
2.3%
3.6%
3.9%
0.6%
0.6%
2.4%
2.9%
2.3%
Michael Walls, One NaƟon
2.8%
1.2%
4.4%
2.2%
3.9%
4.3%
2.1%
<0.1%
3.0%
Robert Nalbandian, UAP
2.0%
2.3%
1.6%
2.8%
<0.1% 3.7%
0.3%
1.5%
1.4%
Lesley Kinney, Informed Medical OpƟons Party
2.0%
1.6%
2.4%
2.2%
0.1%
1.8%
2.1%
3.0%
1.0%
Dajen Tinkler, Liberal Democrats
1.8%
2.0%
1.6%
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.4%
2.8%
2.0%
Victor Kline, TNL
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.6%
<0.1% 1.2%
1.4%
<0.1%
0.8%
17.9% 7.9%
SelfͲidenƟĮed ConservaƟve
1.8%
Source: Compass Polling, Week of 6 May, 507 online respondents. NESB=Non English speaking. Some results are rounded office in recent North Sydney and Lane Cove council elections. Nearly 58% of the electorate now self-identifies as progressive, compared to 32% conservative and 9% libertarian. And 51% said that regardless of
how they allocate their first preference, they would prefer a Labor government compared to 49% who want a Liberal government, when results are adjusted for the age profile of the electorate. Of those who would prefer a Liberal government, just two thirds intend to
allocate their first preference to Zimmerman. It’s even lower for those who prefer a Labor government, with less than half indicating they will direct a first preference to Renshaw. Continued Page 5