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The Sun Says…

So it’s time for the good citizens of the lower North Shore to vote on who will represent them in state parliament for the next four years.

Felicity Wilson is defending a 11% margin in North Shore.

In 2019, she scored more primary votes than Labor, Greens and the leading independent, Mosman mayor Carolyn Corrigan, put together and won every single booth in the electorate.

But there is an expectation this time in some quarters that the so-called Teal candidate, Helen Conway, will go one step further and pull back Wilson’s margin. It’s a difficult task, especially since the state Liberals have relatively strong credentials on climate and Wilson has been successful in securing funding for schools, parks and local infrastructure.

In Willoughby, newish MP Tim James is defending a narrow 53-47 margin over independent Larissa Penn who nearly upset him in last year’s by-election. But Labor sat out that poll and their presence this time will dilute the non-Liberal vote.

It’s also worth remembering that as recently as 2019, when Gladys Berejiklian was the member, the Liberals scored an impressive 71% of the vote.

As always, betting markets give us an informed view of where sentiment lies.

According to SportsBet, Helen Conway is rated at odds of 2.5: an implied 40% chance of winning. Larissa Penn is doing even better, at 2.4: an implied 42% probability of winning.

As always, exercise your vote wisely!

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