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Hypothèses sur les coûts de l’énergie et des technologies
Tableau 25: Hypothèse d’évolution des coûts de le l’énergie dans tous les scénarios
Tableau 26: Specific investment cost assumptions (in Swiss francs) for heating technologies in the scenarios until 2050
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Tableau 27: Investment cost assumptions for power generation plants (in CHF/kW) until 2050
Development projections for fuel prices All Scenarios Biomass Synthetic Fuels Oil Gas Coal $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 7.70 13.65 20.00 26.00 30.00
– – 20.00 26.00 30.00
8.5 2.5 2.9 12.3 3.3 3.3 21.5 5.5 4.2 24.2 6.2 4.4 35.1 8.9 5.3
Investment costs for heat generation plants
Geothermal Heat pumps Biomass heat plants Residential biomass stoves, ovens Solar collectors CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW Industrialized countries CHF/kW Industry CHF/kW In heat grids CHF/kW Residential CHF/kW 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 2533 1897 636 2406 1844 615 2152 1738 583 1908 1632 541 1685 1537 509
890 901 1028 1124 859 869 1028 1071 806 774 1028 965 763 689 1028 848 721 583 1028 721
Assumed Investment Costs for Power Generation Plants
CHP Coal CHP Gas CHP Lignite CHP Oil CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW
Coal power plant Diesel generator Gas power plant Lignite power plant Nuclear power plants Oil power plant Renewables CHP Biomass*** CHP Fuel cell CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW
CHF/kW CHF/kW
CHP Geothermal CHF/kW
Biomass power plant
CHF/kW Geothermal power plant**** CHF/kW Hydro power plant** Ocean energy power plant PV power plant CHF/kW CHF/kW CHF/kW
CSP power plant* Wind turbine offshore CHF/kW CHF/kW
Wind turbine onshore Hydrogen production CHF/kW CHF/kW 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 2650 2650 2650 2650 2650
1060 1060 1060 1060 1060
2650 1389 2120 954 638 2650 1367 2120 954 530 2650 1314 2120 954 530 2650 1251 2120 954 530 2650 1198 2120 954 710
2332 6996 1007 2332 6360 986 2332 5406 943 2332 4770 912 2332 4770 869
2703 5300 13992 2544 7004 2809 7367 1378 6042 4240 1738 1463 2650 5300 11861 2491 6867 2809 7049 1039 5300 3911 1675 1293 2597 2650 9423 2438 6297 2809 4664 774 3922 3381 1601 975 2491 2650 7908 2332 5726 2809 3286 594 3233 3000 1537 742 2385 1187 6848 2237 5156 2809 2237 498 2904 2767 1484 604
Costs for a system with a solar multiple of two and thermal storage for 8 h of turbine operation **Values apply to both run-of-the-river and reservoir hydro power *** In this research, bio-energy and synthetic fuels are considered to be interchangeable fuels for power plants, combined heat and power plants (CHP), and heating plants. Synthetic fuels produced by renewable electricity—mainly solar and wind power—will either be added to bio-energy supply or replace it. *** IRENA (2017), Geothermal Power: Technology Brief, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, page 13, CAPEX for binary plants—low projection
