China Climate Impacts overview Climate impacts
Heat wave
Drought
Diseases
Glacier retreat
Locations Pearl-River Delta Yangtze River Delta North China
Severity / Future prediction Hong Kong Observatory prediction: HK average temperature will reach 26.5 degree Celsius from 2090 to 2099, which is increased by 3.5 degree Celsius as compared to period 1961-1990; IPCC prediction: world average temperature would rise from 1.4 degree Celsius to 5.8 degree Celsius for the next 100 hundred years.
In North and West China (Shangdong, Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, etc., Southeast China (includes Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces)
In the past 30 years: global area affected by drought has doubled due to climate change; Nov 2004: the drought affected 5,100,000 sq km agriculture and about 40 million people, 9 million people suffered from water shortages, economic losses of more than 6 billion RMB
Hong Kong Southeast China
World Health Organization: 6% of malaria cases worldwide during the last 25 years are the result of climate change; IPCC: climate change will lead to an increase in the number of people exposed to vector borne diseases, e.g. 40-50% of the world population is currently impinge on dengue fever and malaria
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Himalaya
Past 24 years: 3,000 sq km of ice has been melted; By 2050: half of the glacier in China will be melted; By 2100: all the glacier in China will disappear.
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Sea level rise
Typhoon
East China costal areas along the sea
South China Southeast coastal areas (includes Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Guangdong, Guang’xi, Fujian, and Zhe’jiang province)
Past 100 years: global warming is expected to increase the annual rate of sea level rise by two to five times; Past 50 years: Victoria Harbor in HK has risen 2.3mm annually in average, and 12cm in total; Past 40 years: Turu Harbor in HK has risen 3mm annually in average, and 12 cm in total; By the year 2100, world sea level is projected to be approximately 9cm to 88cm higher than it is today. The sea level rise will lead the storms reach much higher altitude and more risk for the lower area sinking 2003: serious tropical storm hit the south-eastern province of Guangdong destroying 54,000 homes and causing economic losses of more than $280 million; 2004: Typhoon Rananim hit Zhejiang Province in China with strong winds and heavy rains, 18 million people were affected, 271,000 hectares of crops were affected, leading to 18 billion RMB economic losses; An increase in wind speeds of 10% as a realistic magnitude for an intensification of tropical cyclones caused by climate change
The severe floods are mostly located in these regions during different periods:
Flooding
Hua-nan region during monsoon period (includes Guangdong, Guang’xi, Fujian, south Jiang’xi and Hai’na) the middle and bottom stream of the Yangtze River and Huai-he in early summer (includes Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, An’hui and Jiangsu provinces)
Sept 2003: severe flooding in Shanxi province, 4.9 million people were affected; 2004: severe flooding in Eastern and Southern China, causing landslides, affecting 100 million people, more than 1000 deaths Past 10 years, 44% of all flood disasters worldwide affected Asia, claiming 228,000 lives, economic losses in the region in that decade totaled US $136 billion
North China during summer storms periods Agriculture
the area around the Great Wall lying south-east of the transition belt between crop
By 2030: Chinese harvests may be reduced by 5 to 10% 2
Desertification
agriculture and animal husbandry the Huang-Hai plains, where dryland crops like wheat, cotton, corn, and fruit trees are grown the area north of Huaihe river that lies along the south edge of the temperate crop zone the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river the Loess Plateau 3 north regions: Northwest China North China Northeast China (includes west of Da’xin’an mountains, north of the Great Wall and north and west part of Tibetan Plateau, including Inner Mongolia, Gan’su, He’be， Shan’xi and Xingjiang)
By 2050: China’s rice production could drop by as much as one fifth
The total area of desertification affected land in China is approximately 2,622,300 sq. km, occupying 27.32% of total land territory; The desertification process is spreading with an annual growth of 2,460 sq km.
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