Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation by Chimera Innova Group

Playbook

FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND

Innovation A hands-on guide for modeling, designing, and leading your company's next radical innovation

Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

Playbook Development Team Tamara Carleton

Sponsors

Research Partners

William Cockayne

art coordination

Graphic design and layout Anna Raikkonen

Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

Playbook overview Welcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovationâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets.

How to use it

Strategic focus

Benefit to you

Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. The Foresight Framework

We introduce a comprehensive framework

Discover the different types of innovation paths, people, and industry contexts to help you start in the right place with the right mindset. Chapter 3. Perspective

The Generational Arcs, Future User, and Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro, micro, and narrative views.

Chapter 6. Team

165

The Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and and keep the right people engaged in your pursuit of radical innovation. 58

The Context Map, Progression Curves, and Janus Cones methods broaden your view of the problem space, helping you to better anticipate the future. Chapter 4. Opportunity

124

The White Spots, Paper Mockups, and Change Path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan.

the big idea. Chapter 2. How to Start

Chapter 5. Solution

Chapter 7. Vision

200

The Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test, organizational vision to direct your teamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s efforts. 91

Appendix

Supporting material includes a list of readings, suggested data sources, and other related items.

240

Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

METHOD SHORTCUTS PERSPECTIVE

OPPORTUNITY

SOLUTION

TEAM

VISION

Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

A variety of case studies Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.

FUTURE VISION FOR PAPER

10 WORKSHOP LESSONS FROM AN INDUSTRY VETERAN

A SECOND FUTURE FOR UBICOM

HOW YLE DEFINED A NEW FORESIGHT CAPABILITY

SEEKING VISIONARIES AT DARPA

PROGRAM MANAGERS AT DARPA

DARPAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S LESSONS FOR INDUSTRY

TECHNOLOGY VISIONS AT DARPA

THE HEILMEIER CATECHISM AT DARPA

THE ORIGINAL VISION OF EPCOT

Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

How to use the playbook

Insights Drawing insights & implications

The playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material types of content. The second schema applies to each method’s presentation.

Overview

Tips

Context Maps What you get

WhEN to use it

Tips & lessons from others

research

WhY it’s helpful

REFLECTION

What is the proposed topic? Why do you want to pursue it?

Example Let’s look at an example

Photos Additional examples

ORIGINALS MISSING

IDEAL CITY > >

A major consumer electronics company used a

Instructions Instructions 1. Agree on a broad topic or opportunity area your team wants to pursue. You set the scale of topic. Very broad topics may

An American police force considered how decreasing state funds would impact a range of

Template

CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

annotated example. The numbers in numbers in the diagram.

2. Draw an outline for a Context Map or use the worksheet template in the playbook. 3. Start talking with your team about dimensions as they arise. Points of intense discussion or even disagreement are good to include in your Context Map. 4. around your Context Map. At

5. arrives at a map (or set of maps) that captures your problem space 63

Peter Drucker

Arthur C. Clarke

FORESIGHT FRAMEwork ChaptER 1

Shortcuts Foresight Framework

Five planning phases

Two guiding principles

The methodology

Underlying theories

An integrated system

Case study: Paper

The Foresight Framework What do you need to do to plan your next big idea?

Five planning phases

The Foresight Framework is

Phase I: Perspective

guide innovation planning and action. Phase IV: Team

Phase II: Opportunity

Phase V: Vision

Phase III: Solution

The ambiguity curve

Where would you put yourself on the Ambiguity Curve?

ÂŠ 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

Two guiding principles Principle #1 What you foresee is what you get

Principle #2 You canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t put off tomorrow

The methodology PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE

PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY

PHASE III: SOLUTION

PHASE IV: TEAM

Prototype 16

PHASE V: VISION

DARPA

Underlying theories

DARPA

An integrated system

Â©

CASE STUDY | Future vision for paper How should my team begin?

How do we introduce new methods in radical innovation?

How can we set the right focus and still embrace ambiguity?

How do we restart if our first group discussions are uninspiring?

How can we turn experiences into lessons?

Buddha

Robert Collier

HOW TO START ChaptER 2

Shortcuts Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s start with questions 30

Sample problems

Why a playbook

Learning process

35 Types of growth

Starting midway

Finding inspiration

Teams or alone

Who leads change

Finding data

Which industries

Case study: 10 lessons

Viewpoint: Revisionist

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s start with questions With the basic framework in mind, how should you begin approaching your group's innovation process?

Why a playbook?

book y a l P s i h Use T o t t o N ns 10 Reaso

1. You will not find a single ready-to-use idea.

6. This playbook wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t provide a quick fix.

4. You will make yourself and others uncomfortable.

2. Using this playbook is hard work. 7. It is lengthy.

5. There is no guaranteed success in radical innovation.

3. The playbook does not know your problem.

8. Some academics were involved.

9. It won’t help you predict the future.

10. You can’t cheat at innovation.

Which reasons(s) resonated most with you? Why?

What definitions are we using? Strategic foresight

Innovation

Radical innovation

What type of growth do we seek? What do you see as the most rational path to innovation? What does your leadership team believe?

New growth

Emerging growth

Core growth

Which growth path does your work focus most on? Why?

Where do we find inspiration? Where should we look for ideas? three simple places.

> > > >

Organizational start

> > > >

External start

> > > >

Internal start

> > >

Common

> > > > >

Who leads change in innovation? Multiple innovation rolesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;or what you might call personality typesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; coexist within an organization at any given time.

Which contexts or industries work best? This playbook can be applied easily to different types of organizations and contexts. Type of organization

Industry sector Company size

VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinking Country and culture

I am a social scientist in Finland, and our usual Scandinavian planning principle is to plan rigorously and execute once. After working with several American colleagues from Silicon Valley, I have discovered an unexpected difference in their approach to problem-solving. In Silicon Valley, they tend to execute again. While I can see the

value in rapid learning cycles, at the same time, this approach creates a headache for Finns who have already settled contentedly and deliberately As we work with more foreign innovators, Finnish managers should be exposed earlier to other ways of workingâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;ultimately leading to better harmony and making iteration a welcome part of our planning process.

What types of problems are addressed? What types of problems are other companies and innovation managers addressing with the methods in this playbook?

International paper producer

Software developer

National media company

Training service provider

Global forestry company

Marketing department

National IT company Strategic R&D consortium

Federal governmental agency

International steel company

What is the learning process? 11 12 13 15 16

7 6

ÂŠ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Can we start with a specific objective?

Where do we start midway in a project?

Instructions

Scoring

Should we work in teams or alone? The short answer is both. All the methods can be used independently or within groups.

Using methods in teams

Optimal group size

Using methods alone

Where can we find credible data?

What are your usual top Why?

CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran Planning with foresight

The advantage of workshops

Lesson 1: Maximize participant diversity

Lesson 4: Frame the opportunities to be eXplored

Lesson 3: Assign light pre-work

Lesson 2: Divide people into smaller teams

Lesson 5: Prepare simple examples

Lesson 8: Allow time to reflect and recharge

Lesson 7: Follow the process

Lesson 6: Apply real-world data

Lesson 9: Encourage experimentation and iteration

Lesson 10: Sustain the momentum of the workshop

Gary Hamel

C. K. Prahalad

PERSPECTIVE ChaptER 3

Shortcuts Phase I: Perspective

Context Maps

Progression Curves

Case study: Ubicom

Janus Cones

Phase I: Perspective Have you ever spent time in a meeting and after 30 minutes, realized the group should have discussed what has happened before in your organization, let alone industry? Or wondered when the brainstorm youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re in will ever converge to the main points?

PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE

this phase:

Context Maps Context Maps capture the themes that emerge when discussing complex problems.

WhEN to use it

What you get

WhY itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

> >

Instructions

at we h t e e ow e agr 1. W ant to kn e w n first perts defi ure x ut how e y of the f t the ci

etch the k s n e h 2. We t ne, which li tool out a big flower ke looks li t “petals” h with eig

3. As we talk, we not e the biggest themes in Hall’s report, as one theme per dimension

4. A team m em captures rela ber ted points near certain themes, so we don’t forget our dialogue late r 64

Drawing insights & implications

of As a variation anged the tool, we ch nd the backgrou color of each hich dimension, w rying could show va ted levels of expec change

We real iz driven e a blend of da and lif estyle- tadriven elemen ts defin perfect ea city

Tips & lessons from others

What is the proposed topic? Why do you want to pursue it?

Additional examples

CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

Progression Curves Progression Curves represent the evolution of changes in terms of

WhEn to use it

WhY itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Instructions

1. After reviewing my Context Map, I decide to look at the evolution of interactive touchscreens for my first Progression Curve

ts from history, 4. I add more data poin nt to continue realizing that I will wa ring the course of extending this curve du my research program

line quickly, 2. I draw a wavy n always extend knowing that I ca rmat later. an end point or fo

3. I keep my first pass simple, notin g major developments and dates that help me u nderstand how the field has developed 73

Drawing insights & implications

Tips & lessons from others

Who are some experts you can ask for their wisdom?

helps me This method t expert of become a fas owing me this topic, all entify the to quickly id s in the major player ent points field at differ

to refine my le b a m a I , ll l Overa ding potentia n fi r fo s n o ti ques c tions in roboti future applica surgery 75

Additional examples

PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet

CASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after Ubicom

The challenge: Following the steps of a successful research program

The approach: Two days of expert prototyping

The result: A new vision, a new program

Janus Cones Janus Cones looks backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.

WhEn to use it

WhY itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Mobility as a basic need Urban planners design for roads and transport

Dangers of driving Variety of car models

Cars as displays of wealth Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

Time spent traveling in cars

Car tinkering passions

Family trips & activities by car Infrastructure funding

Car as a lifestyle / status symbol Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

New paradigm of commuting

Parking is an issue Traffic jams Rush hour

Rising costs of car ownership Stress of car buying

Multiple cars in a family Different car Cars by life stage shipped as luggage

Seat belt safety campaigns

Instructions

s on the 1. Our priority is to focu cone on past, so we sketch a big se the whiteboard with its no pointing right to today

Mobility as a basic need Urban planners design for roads and transport

2. One of the first Cars as of comments is about displays wealth Fordâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s assembly line, which led to a consumer choice in cars, so we note this historical point somewhere far left inside the cone

Dangers of driving Variety of car models

Time spent traveling in cars

Car tinkering passions

Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

Family trips & activities by car Infrastructure funding

Car as a lifestyle / status symbol Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

New paradigm of commuting

5. We ad d more d ata so that th e cone fee points ls comple to our tea te m

Parking is an issue Traffic jams Rush hour

Rising costs of car ownership

Multiple cars in a family Different car Cars by life stage shipped as luggage

Seat belt safety campaigns

e to help n o c e h t s ss rcs acro time increment a l a c i t r these raw ve 4. We d data points by er us clust Stress of car buying

3. After a few more data points, we see the timeframe emerge, so we note the major time periods in 20-year increments under the cone 84

Drawing insights & implications

Who remembers the history

We discov er knows th the majority of our e last 15 y group ears well f personal e rom xpe movies an rience and then re l d grandp arent ane ies on knowledg cdotes for e about th e prior yea rs

d Due to our group’s varie backgrounds, the Janus Cones became a useful neutral tool to bring us quickly together Mobility as a basic need

Dangers of driving

Urban planners design for roads and transport

Variety of car models

Cars as displays of wealth Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

Time spent traveling in cars

Car tinkering passions

Family trips & activities by car Infrastructure funding

Car as a lifestyle / status symbol Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

New paradigm of commuting

Parking is an issue Traffic jams Rush hour

Rising costs of car ownership Stress of car buying

Multiple cars in a family Different car Cars by life stage shipped as luggage

Seat belt safety campaigns

We start to see a pattern about the changing definition of “premium” in cars, starting with premium as wealth displays 86

Tips & lessons from others

Company

> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >

Additional examples

JANUS CONES | method worksheet

â&#x20AC;&#x201D;John Galsworthy

OPPORTUNITY ChaptER 4

Shortcuts Phase II: Opportunity

Generational Arcs

Future User

103

Viewpoint: Acting out

113

Futuretelling

114

Phase II: Opportunity Now that you have developed some perspective about your the emerging opportunity?

PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY

this phase:

Generational Arcs WhEn to use it tracks population changes in terms of life stages and other generational variables.

WhY itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

Let’s look at an example

AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!

Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010

Instructions

u s on o u c o f to ecide primary d e 1. W y as the r count opulation tp targe

nk 2. We rely on World Ba cords, reports, plus company re ces as our primary data sour

3. We dec ide both today to present ’s data an d the estima ted shift i n 20 years (without accountin g immigrat for any ion chang es)

wn Source: Work Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010 iteBankdodata, wr 4. We then some characteristics of the different generations

Drawing insights & implications

recent We see our sweet spot in customer growth is tied ’s closely with our country biggest population

In 20 y would ears, this sa me ag dr eg raisin op by nearl y a qu roup g som ec ar availa ble ma oncerns abo ter, rkets i u n the f t uture

Part of our group’s discussion Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010 focuses on how our company could better address changing generational needs

Tips & lessons from others

labels in your primary market?

100

Additional examples

101

GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet

AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!

Future User WhEn to use it a user within a targeted demographic by comparing similar groups over time.

WhY itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful What you get

103

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

104

1996

Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008

2008

2020

105

Instructions

106

primary r u o e b i r c age 1. We des day and note his to customer

is uss what h c s i d e es W . 2 s, and valu e c i o h c , e l lifesty o and how g a s r a e y e were 12 ed over tim g n a h c e v a they h e is timefram for h t k c i p e w ( les o R&D cyc w t n o d e s a b ny) our compa

ur earlier o m o r f ng we 3. Drawi research, l a n o i t a gener g future n u o y r ou describe ts today s i x e e h s a customer

5. We compare and contrast the two peop le at their starting ages and also at their targ et ages, looking to understand what ha s changed (and what has not changed) over ti me

4. The targ et age of our future user is the same as as todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s customer

107

Drawing insights & implications

108

ily and m a f e lu sers va eir lives Both u in th n o i t a c edu

By drawing from real pe ople, we build a r ealistic pers ona for a future user that ca n drive our R& D planning

and rs enjoy cricket se u th bo h g ou h Alt p under nds, they grew u a br n ig re fo op sh h s in Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;whic n io it d n co t n re diffe ations about the ct pe ex r ei th ts ec aff ry ent, and indust m n er ov g , y om econ

Tips & lessons from others

110

Additional examples

111

FUTURE USER | method worksheet

__________________________ __________________________ __________________________ __________________________

VIEWPOINT | Acting out for the Finns

as a Finn.â&#x20AC;? The classic Finnish stereotype is someone who is

playing. We have to identify with

national characteristic is of polite business seriously and expect to

react to than a narrative could, so

way we present ourselves.

becomes much richer and more

may challenge that comfort zone. In

particular,

the

FutureTelling

that can be learned. While I probably

and group role-playing. Like most something new, I can make it The

FutureTelling

method

can

many insights that acting out in new ideasâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;that may help all of us communicate an idea to another about what is right and what is true.

113

Futuretelling Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

114

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Source: William Cockayne, 2008

115

Instructions

116

1. We decide to show the cal doctor performing a criti surgery on the battlefield.

2. Our story s: had four role ical a doctor, med tient, assistant, pa ldier. and fellow so

5-6. We used simple props, such as giant paper scalpel, to help add some hum or to our storytelling.

3-4. E v the pa eryone, incl tient, had so uding to say me t impor hat conveye lines tance of usi d the portab ng le ener gy ge a nerato r.

117

Drawing insights & implications

118

y to pla e l o r a e had n, and it n o y r Eve uctio d o r p a team in the us more as d unite

e d mor e n i a We g y for the nd th empa ituation, a s ns user’s sign begi de g good erstandin d ds by un uman nee h basic

Once our audience saw—instead of hearing us describe —the user’s need in context, they be gan to understand the critical value of our opportunity

Tips & lessons from others

When do you see live storytelling used in your What makes it work?

120

Additional examples

121

FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET

Describe your future user in one sentence or less. What does your user care about most? What do you want your audience to understand about

future? Keep it to a simple scene or two, if possible. What other people (or objects) will your user interact with in How do you want the audience to respond at the end of the

ÂŠ 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Walt Disney

123

SOLUTION ChaptER 5

Shortcuts Phase III: Solution

125

White Spots

127

Paper Mockups

136

Dark Horse Prototype

145

Change Paths

149

Case study: Yle

158

124

Phase III: Solution The third phase in the Foresight Framework brings you to a solution. your industry, users, organization, and individual skills.

125

PHASE III: SOLUTION

White Spots

Paper Mockups

Change Paths

is the Dark Horse Prototype.

126

White Spots White Spots is a strategic method for studying the opportunity space

WHY IT'S HELPFUL

WHEN TO USE IT What you get

127

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

128

Instructions

rawing 1. I start by d a big cross

5. I iden ti example fy an extreme for each quadra corner t n o pretes t the ma tâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trix

6. I add many examples on the matrix, using arrows to show movement

2-3. I pic k utility a cost and s the top two dimensi ons from my previous Context Maps to create my two axes

ne white spot 7-9. I mark o hat could and ponder w ist today realistically ex stry vision as a new indu

Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009

tart simply 4. I decide to s and with military dpoints for en s a n ia il iv c st high and utility again low cost

130

Drawing insights & implications

131

ual helped This 2x2 vis plex story me tell a com arket about the m and opportunity in terms of competition f est criteria o the two bigg e cost and us Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009

Although I develope d a Progression Curv e of flying cars from the movies and books, I focus on real solutions in my White Spots analysis 132

Tips & lessons from others

Before your team picks, which two dimensions would you start your analysis with? Why?

133

Additional examples

134

WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet

Paper Mockups Paper Mockups asks participants to physically model a future system.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

136

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Source: Ming-Li Chai, 2008

137

Instructions

138

e e to build th 1. We choos because we m te s y s e r enti erstand how want to und interact ts r a p s u io r a the v

2-3. We use materia ls nearby to build qu ickly, including string an d colored paper

4. One of our team members sits down to expl ain our idea to a group of coll eagues

Drawing insights & implications

140

ockup in Just having a physical m riosity hand generated intense cu ally, we among colleaguesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;norm tion have to fight for their atten ows during the usual slidesh

ful, While sketching is help a 3D building our idea into ghts object gave us more insi n idea into our own innovatio

The act of buildin g also helped us understand m ore about our target users and how they might react to dif ferent parts 141

Tips & lessons from others

How might you embed paper mockups into your early market research or

142

Additional examples

143

PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet

Feel free to use this piece of paper in your mockup.

DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE A variation of the Paper Mockup, Dark Horse prototypes are threedimensional physical prototypes that are built to explore a previous

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

145

Instructions

Drawing insights & implications

146

We made one d ramatic yet im portant change: by mov ing the string fr om the people to the hou ses, we emphasi zed the social network (and transfer of knowledge) am ong the houses

147

DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet

Tear your previous Paper Mockup in half. Discuss.

148

Change Paths Change Paths are data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful What you get

Let’s look at an example

150

Instructions

151

rst step i f e h t e ot 2. We n any can do on p each com to action at the th their pa e timeline th start of

nt s take two differe bu ir A d an g in oe 1. B one imagines the : re tu fu e th of s view nt airplane for oi -p to tin po e at ultim her imagines a ot e th d an s er om cust ubs n major airport h ee tw be er n li ry luxu

g e two bi h t k r a 3. We m each company s r decision to achieve thei X ke must ta visions with a ve the respecti ong on l a r e h t fur e timelin

4. Boeing als o pursued new technologies and materia ls for greater airplane efficiency, w hich was larg ely out of thei controlâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;a dec r ision they co uld have plac off their path ed 152

Drawing insights & implications

153

ame e, s e h l t that t multip d e z r ppo eali s We r e can su , vision g r futu ompetin c even

Both companie s achieved the future they w anted by doing things that they could affect d irectly

Boeing actua lly started wit ha different visio n that crysta llized into the 787. Only in hind sight does the future look like a cle ar and straight path! 154

Tips & lessons from others

take tomorrow to set you on this future path?

155

Additional examples

156

CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet

CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability Towards participatory renewal

Marketplace challenges

158

Heralds of change

A map of current practices

A sense of shared ownership

Using stories to communicate context

160

Profiles of the future audience

The importance of real-world evidence

161

Building the prototype The Four Rooms concept

162

FROM PROTOTYPE TO VISION TO ACTION

163

— Bill Taylor

— George Bernard Shaw

164

TEAM ChaptER 6

Shortcuts Phase IV: Team

166

Buddy Checks

168 177

Voice Stars

178

Case study: DARPA PMs

187

Crowd Clovers

188

Case study: DARPA lessons 197

165

Phase IV: Team You have the start of a great idea. Now you want to know: how do I take this idea back to my group? How can I take it inside my organization, so the idea may Or what if I donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have a team yet? What should I do next?

166

PHASE IV: TEAM

this phase:

167

Buddy Checks Buddy Checks evaluates potential new co-founders, partners, and teammates by showing their reaction level to new ideas.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

168

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Instructions

170

r rough u o t n e s e r d teer to p sse preten e 1. I volun J d n a a Ann idea, and e know w s e u g a e oll to be two c e join our efforts hop whom we 6

rehearsal 3. After some more d two with Anna, we fin pect will scenarios that we ex we want prompt the reaction lleague, from our second co as a who weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d like to join group leader

t colleague 2. We agree our firs 4 and 5 sits between levels action is to because his first re am and his volunteer for the te to suggest later reactions are ts to refine minor improvemen our raw idea

171

Drawing insights & implications 1

172

ers have h t o e z i l We rea nt gut an insta ideas, w e n o t reaction eals their v e r h c i h w s about g n i l e e f true along playing 2

The extra rehea rsals lets us test a few diff erent ways of telling our idea to generate the higher level reactionâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; instead of sta rting at a lower level and working up to the reaction we wanted from the start of the interaction 173

Tips & lessons from others

think you sit at most commonly?

174

Additional examples

175

BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet

CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA Are you a scientist or engineer with a radical idea (or ideas) that you believe could provide meaningful change of lasting Would you like to lead the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most capable academic and industrial experts to make that idea become reality in a period of If so, you should consider

(DARPA) as a program manager. A DARPA program manager isâ&#x20AC;Ś > An idea generator > A technical expert > An entrepreneur > A visionary > A patriot dedicated to national service Source: The Economist magazine, 2008

177

VOICE Stars VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic that measures the leadership aptitude for radical innovation of an individual or team.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful What you get

178

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Instructions

180

w to dra s i p e st first tar shape r u O 1. gs rlyin e d n u

the 6. We discus s different acti vities our group do es that helps fos ter a climate for each attribute

E a VOIC ach e t i r w e e 2-3. W at the end of e t k attribu five tic k r a m d line line an r scoring per fo marks 4-5. We take turns scor ing ourselves across all the attributes, drawing a connecting line between individual scores 181

Drawing insights & implications

182

gularly e r s i m a e e of our t iscuss how we Only on and we d , s u o est news i t c a a l e h vor t r t for us im to hea rely on h d scan the marke n updates a

to t tough i d n i e f We mples w a x e f o think or start e k o v o r do to p ns, which io new act good a leads to n about io discuss tivities c a r e h t e what o people w s n e v e d an help u o t t e g should a this are n i w o gr

We re al scores ize our tea m m being ost high o n c helps urious, wh explai ich n all ap precia why we t new t opics e exploring an possib ilities d togeth er 183

Tips & lessons from others

Who do you know that best exhibits all four

184

Additional examples

185

VOICE STARS | method worksheet

CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA

The DARPA ethos The basic profile Where to find them

187

Crowd Clovers Crowd Clovers maps the various related components of a personal network focused on advancing new innovation ideas.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

188

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Instructions

le who p o e p e n the rite th 2. I w me most i e = e pl provok eaflet (pur el purpl ) e provok

CONNECTORS

CATALYSTS

4. I write the peopl e realize o ur effort who s and pus us towar h d action in the re leaflet (r d ed = rea lize)

ENABLERS

1. I first draw ra the outline fo big four-leaf clover, using rs different colo per leaflet to signify the n network actio y I desire for m unit 6. I draw boxes arou nd the people whom we rela PROMOTERS te to formally (like our boss and other division lead s)

le who grow 3. I write the peop ideas with and expand our sources in the access to more re en = grow) green leaflet (gre

5. I write the peo broadcast an ple who d circulate o ur ideas within their networ ks in the blue le aflet (blue = broadcast)

Drawing insights & implications > > > >

> >

> > >

CONNECTORS

people ur w e f o w I kno lp promote s to e u who h nd expose a n ideas etworks, a n other ecide to d r by area I e this yea v o impro a person t g er hirin ur develop o build nity u comm

ENABLERS

CATALYSTS

e that w e e s o eved t the same l i l e r I was t rely on for al e l p o o e n fp did oup o efforts r g l l sma novation our in

I see w form e rely mos al t netwo ties for tw heavily on r o area find k action, resou name s of r ly to c us to execu es and to push te

PROMOTERS

Tips & lessons from others

Which quadrant would your colleagues place you in most?

Additional examples

CROWD CLOVERS | method worksheet

CASE STUDY | DARPAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lessons for industry 1. Organize by grand challenge

3. Live the mission

2. Maintain short contracts

4. Operate as an open network

7. Keep a short decision chain

6. Sharpen vision at the start

5. Hire for vision

Richard N. Foster

King James Bible

VISION ChaptER 7

Shortcuts Phase V: Vision

201

Vision Statement

203

Case study: DARPA visions 212

DARPA Hard Test

213

Case study: DARPA criteria 227 Case study: EPCOT vision

228 230 200

Phase V: VIsion With a team in place, your next step is to turn your big idea into a vision that will excite more people, mobilize further action, and ultimately secure funding and support as part of a larger campaign.

201

PHASE V: VISION

this phase:

202

Vision Statement A Vision Statement provides a short vivid description of your idea in order to inspire, energize, and help others create a mental picture of your target future opportunity.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful What you get

203

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

204

Instructions

â&#x2020;&#x2019;

205

rring back to the 1. We start by refe e Futuretelling story we told in th idea. The Dark exercise about our us focus on what Horse method lets innovation. is essential to our

the ensions in im d e th e s r u 2. We then hat made ou w in la p x e ps to . Context Ma opportunity ld o b a h c u s idea 3. Looking at the Janus Con es help us understan d why our vision sho uld exist n ow

5. We name four companies which would be ideal o partners for us, tw y of which are alread working with us on other projects.

ression 6. The Prog s estimate u lp e h s e v Cur date. a realistic

e 4. We decide to nam st only two popular pa examples from our Progression Curves analysis to not rs. overwhelm our use e discuss mor 7. We need to ps from our te s ig b o tw which will show we Change Path on track to are directly big vision. achieve this

206

Drawing insights & implications

207

to the d e t c a re uickly ion of our q e c n e di ript Our au geeky desc emove jargon r nd eded to long a e n e w , so vision plify it. m and si

at We also learned th g people liked hearin specific companies, which added more validity to our crazy idea.

r Once we hooked ou , audienceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s interest they wanted to know what we would do next, so our team had some more work to do to complete the vision statement.

208

Tips & lessons from others

Why is your teamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

Additional examples

210

VISION STATEMENT | method worksheet

211

CASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPA

Legged Squad Support System

Photo: Jeff Corwin Photography, Boeing

Augmented Cognition program

Photo: Boston Dynamics

212

DARPA Hard Test Adapted from DARPA, the DARPA Hard Test describes four qualities of a radical innovation vision: farreaching, technically challenging, multidisciplinary, and actionable.

When to use it

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

213

The notion of DARPA Hard

Four vision components 214

ÂŠ 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

215

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

216

217

Instructions

218

he affles t b t a h t dea C. An i am scientific re mainst nity commu

nce fiction ie c s f o f f tu D. S tars to travel to s 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

bold A. A contemporary could idea that humans er control nuclear pow ically safely and strateg B. A stretch goal that built on previous effort s to put a satellite and man into orbit E. An ambitious goal to build next generation city services for one region

7 6 5 4 3 2 1

radical D. Requires in many ts n e m e c n a adv life-support m o r f s m te sys lsion to to ship propu ring manufactu C. No prove n solution st date that r everse or st o op human ag ing A. Requires inventing n ew precision tech niques for mass produc ed explosives B. Difficult problem without computer aid, drawing on earlier success of the first Russian cosmonaut E. Requires the integration of existing pervasive and physical network infrastructu res 220

n only be D. Vision ca e cooperation th y b d e v ie ach erse groups iv d le ip lt u of m 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

cepts A. Assimilated con l and leaders from al d scientific fields an lines engineering discip B. Helped create a new field of aerospace engineering C. Fostering a new scienti fic discipline of geroscience E. Joint coalition betw een different government groups, city planners , and businesses

221

al research C. Biomedic ailable from v a w o n ts n gra ps several grou

7 6 5 4 3 2 1

oval A. Presidentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s appr d expedited efforts an ide funding nation-w B. Established a new U.S. space agency ca lled NASA to centralize an d mobilize efforts D. First ste p was to co nduct feasibility study and provoke pos sible partn ers

E. A committee-driven approach managed by a global technology com pany 222

Drawing insights & implications

Manhattan Project

Man on the moon

FarReaching

Doubling human life

Technically Challenging

100-Year Spaceship

MultiDisciplinary

Barcelona City Protocol

Actionable

ÂŠ 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

223

Tips & lessons from others

Which dimension of the DARPA Hard Test will be most challenging for

224

DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #1

DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #2

CASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPA

227

CASE STUDY | The original vision of EPCOT A grand challenge

228

Was the vision DARPA Hard?

The vision of EPCOT today

Pathfinders When to use it formal and informal rules within an organization or network.

Why itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s helpful

What you get

230

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at an example

Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

231

Instructions

232

line, 1. On the straight rd we note the standa milestones an idea ch must undergo, whi ng usually starts duri at an ideation session nual our company’s an ite R&D planning offs

3. We then trace each idea’s progress, marking specific events in its timeline

2. We select tw o ideas that w ere pu the past year: Carleton, 2012 rsued in oneSource: whicTamara h s ta lled after several month s and another which quickly got th e attention of the CTO

4. We drew th e path up above the “wa ter line” when a partic ular event moved the idea ahead and drew the path dow the idea slowed n when down for any reason

233

Drawing insights & implications

234

r We also realized that othe n avenues for execution ca open up, such as a new seed fund established within another division

The starting proposal was a good reminder about the value of informal actions to our team Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Our engineering-driven culture often leads to a technology idea looking for a user for a while 235

Tips & lessons from others

What type of navigator (e.g., landmark, route, map, wanderer, hunter) are you at work?

236

Additional examples

237

Pathfinders | method worksheet #2

ÂŠ

APPENDIX Shortcuts Sponsors

241

Development team

243

Research partners

246

248