TOD in Guadalajara by Grupo Prodi

DECEMBER 2017

TOD IN GUADALAJARA An Approach to Urban Transformation

Table of Contents 1

Welcome ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Research and Methods ............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................. 4

Introduction .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Values ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Development Goals .................................................................................................. 7

Background and Context ................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Background of Line 3 ................................................................................................ 8 3.2 Station Typologies .................................................................................................... 9

TOD on Alcalde ............................................................................................................... 13 4.1 Guadalajaraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Plan for Alcalde ................................................................................. 13 4.2 Our Vision for Alcalde .............................................................................................. 13

Station-Specific TOD Strategies ....................................................................................... 16 5.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 16 5.2 Research and Analysis Assumptions ........................................................................ 17 5.3 Santuario ................................................................................................................. 18 5.3.1 Current Conditions ................................................................................................. 18 5.3.2 Santuario Development Vision and Plan ................................................................ 21 5.3.3 Santuario Development Impacts ............................................................................ 49 5.4 La Normal ................................................................................................................ 51 5.4.1 Current Conditions ................................................................................................. 51 5.4.2 La Normal Development Vision and Plan ............................................................... 53 5.4.3 La Normal Development impacts ........................................................................... 63

Institutional & Cross-Cutting Strategies .......................................................................... 66 6.1 Phase 1: Pre-Development ...................................................................................... 66 6.1.1 Mobility and Parking Strategies .............................................................................. 66 6.1.2 Development Viability Analysis .............................................................................. 69 6.1.3 Land Acquisition and Assembly Strategies ............................................................. 73 6.1.4 La Normal Development Corporation .................................................................... 76 6.1.5 Opening Up the Use of Second Floor Spaces ......................................................... 77 6.2 Phase 2: Development ............................................................................................. 78 6.2.1 Easing Design Review Process for Infill Development ............................................ 78 6.2.2 Historic Preservation as a Financing Source ........................................................... 79 6.2.3 Requiring Affordable Housing Development through Inclusionary Zoning ............ 80 6.3 Phase 3: Post-Development: .................................................................................... 81 6.3.1 Strategy for attracting new commercial and retail tenants ................................... 81 6.3.2 Preserving and existing businesses and equipping them for change ..................... 82 6.3.3 Anti-displacement strategies .................................................................................. 83 6.4 Institutional Recommendations Summary ............................................................... 85 1

Next Steps ...................................................................................................................... 86 7.1 Phasing of Physical Interventions ............................................................................. 86 7.2 Strategic Stakeholder Engagement .......................................................................... 87 7.3 Improving the Accessibility of Transit through Technology ...................................... 87

Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 88

Appendix ........................................................................................................................ 89 9.1 Massing Model ........................................................................................................ 89 Why We Created the Model ................................................................................................. 89 How We Created the Model ................................................................................................. 89 9.2 Pro Forma: Development Viability Analysis ............................................................. 92 9.3 Modelling the Transportation System ...................................................................... 92 9.4 Direct Ridership Model ............................................................................................ 92 9.5 ITE Trip Generation .................................................................................................. 94 9.6 Benefits Evaluation .................................................................................................. 97 9.7 System Performance Analysis .................................................................................. 97 9.8 General Transit Feed Specification ........................................................................... 98 9.9 Real Estate Survey ................................................................................................... 99 9.9.1 Framework ............................................................................................................. 99 9.9.2 Implementation .................................................................................................... 102 9.10 Commercial Survey ............................................................................................ 103 9.10.1 Survey Analysis ..................................................................................................... 103 9.10.2 Survey Questions .................................................................................................. 104

1 Welcome 1.1 Executive Summary This report is the culmination of a semester’s work as part of a course on Transit Oriented Development in the Department of Urban Studies and Planning at MIT. With this report, we – 15 urban planning students – wish to propose TOD solutions to transportation, housing, and urban form challenges of Guadalajara. Through site visits, case studies, geospatial analyses, and transportation modeling, we have developed a vision and proposed plan that addresses the major challenges and capitalized on opportunities along Guadalajara’s future Line 3 light rail service. With a long-term perspective on what successful TOD looks like in Guadalajara, we hope the city and state will be better equipped to facilitate desirable development. This report includes the following: 1. An overview of the objectives of our work and the values and methods that guided this project (Section 2). 2. A description of the context underlying TOD along Line 3, including information about Guadalajara and typologies for development around transit in the city (Sections 3 & 4). 3. A description of our geographic area of focus, Avenida Fray Antonio Alcalde and the future La Normal and Santuario stations; and, presentation of development scenarios, impacts, and programs (Section 5). 4. A series of recommended policies and programs for each station and citywide to facilitate desired TOD interventions (Section 6). 5. A summary of the steps required to advance and confirm our analysis and recommendations (Section 7). Following these sections, we provide a conclusion (Section 8) with our overall private and public sector recommendations, and an appendix (Section 9) with further information on our commercial and housing survey work and our financial, real estate, and transit ridership models. We hope this report contributes to the development of equitable and accessible TOD across the Guadalajara metropolitan area.

1.2 Research and Methods As a diverse team representing a variety of research skills and interests, we made full use of our range of abilities to develop our vision for successful TOD in Guadalajara. Among the methods employed were: • • • •

Geospatial analysis Pro forma real estate financial analysis Transit ridership modeling Mode choice modeling

• • • • • • • • •

Mobile app development Design charrette Structured qualitative interviews Business capacity analysis Data scraping Transit capacity analysis Scenario analysis Historic preservation analysis 3D massing and modeling in Rhino and Esri CityEngine

Of course, these methods would be meaningless without data to work with. A few of the most critical sources of data and information we used include: • • • • • •

GeoGDL Mapa Guadalajara, Catastro IMEPLAN (geographic and demographic information for AMG) SITEUR Transportation Data (Simulacion con la Oferta y Demanda Actualizados, Analisis Costo Beneficio Linea Tres) INEGI 2010 Censo General de Población y Vivienda State and Municipal Legislation (Plan Munipal de Desarrollo Urbano y de Centro de Poblacion 2017, Código Urbano para el Estado de Jalisco) Centro Estatal de Investigación de la Vialidad y el Transporte, Encuesta Domiciliaria Origen Destino 2005

1.3 Acknowledgements We are grateful to Mayor Enrique Alfaro Ramírez and Hugo Luna for providing us with access to the officials across the City of Guadalajara and for inspiring our research. We are grateful to Grupo PRODI for sponsoring our research project and our trips to Guadalajara. We are also in great debt to our professors – Chris Zegras, Brent Ryan, and Onésimo Flores – for guiding our work and helping us learn. Additionally, the following organizations and individuals were instrumental in the writing and producing of this report. Iwona Alfred, ITDP Ricardo Alvarez, Senseable City Lab Raúl Arredondo Alegret, Grupo San Carlos Bernardo Baranda, ITDP Miguel Echauri, Echauri Morales Architects Dennis Frenchman, MIT DUSP/CRE David Gomez-Alvarez, Government of Jalisco Erick Gonzáles Santos, Ordenamiento del Territorio for Guadalajara Pablo Ibarra, Grupo San Carlos Rogelio Loera González, IMUVI Guadalajara David Mandujano, Connecta Cuatro Salvador Medina, ITDP Mexico City

Daniel Merchan, MIT CTL Alejandro Morales, Connecta Cuatro Michelle MurguĂa Puga, City of Guadalajara Luc Nadal, ITDP Nely Patan, ITDP Carlo Ratti, MIT Senseable City Lab Alonso Rizo, Cuadro Urbanismo Carlos Sainz Caccia, MIT DUSP Akemi Sato Matsumoto Miranda, MIT DUSP Claudio Sainz, PLANEN Architects and Urbanists Antonio Salazar Gomez, City of Guadalajara Andres Sanudo, Espacio Justo Surella Segu, Infonavit Alejandro Serratos, Taller MĂŠxico Manuel Sierra, City of Guadalajara Mario Silva, IMEPLAN Brian Sobrino, Vision Marketing Rodrigo Tostado Rodriguez, City of Guadalajara Most importantly, we wish to the thanks the citizens, business owners, and transit riders of Guadalajara, who inspired us to reimagine new possibilities for high quality, affordable, transitoriented neighborhoods.

2 Introduction Guadalajara is experiencing a great urban transformation across its historic downtown. The starting point was the construction on the third line of the city metro, and along with that, a number of urban development projects across this area. â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Hugo Luna, August 2017 The purpose of this report is to study the development and implementation of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) in Guadalajara, specifically the relationship between mass transit infrastructure and the planning and design of specific urban environments. TOD is the integration of urban places designed to bring people, activities, buildings, and public space together, with easy walking and cycling connection between them and excellent transit service to the rest of the city. It is our contention that Guadalajara and other cities can develop TOD projects that simultaneously meet private profit motives, public transportation objectives, and urban development goals, but that doing so requires the integrated design of physical, financial, and policy measures involving a range of stakeholders. As a vibrant, daring, and innovative city of 1.5 million in the heart of Mexico, we feel that Guadalajara is the perfect model for TOD in the 30 or more medium-sized Latin American cities between 1 and 3 million.

What is TOD? In our definition, TOD is an urban development strategy that integrates urban places to bring people, activities, buildings, and public space together, with easy walking and cycling connection between them and excellent transit service to the rest of the city. The many expected benefits of TOD include enhanced social capital, healthier lifestyles for residents, mode shift, increased property values, agglomeration economies, reduced congestion, and cheaper commutes (Noland et al. 2014). Our vision for TOD in Guadalajara takes advantage of planned transit construction to support non-motored travel and walkability; affordable neighborhood development; dense housing development; accessible public space; and an active, diverse, and inclusive urban form.

2.1 Values In light of this broader purpose, the objective of our work is to help the City of Guadalajara maximize the value of its future Line 3 light rail project. Doing so requires a vision for TOD in Guadalajara as a facilitator of new opportunities and sustainable growth for the city. Informed by this vision and the values voiced by Mayor Enrique Alfaro during our visit to Guadalajara, the following values underpin the development interventions, designs, and strategies we recommend in this document. â&#x2014;? â&#x2014;?

Inclusive: TOD benefits all residents throughout the metropolitan area Sustainable: TOD should be long-lived, financially sustainable, and maintained through long-standing institutional support

● ● ●

Efficient: TOD facilitates efficient market conditions, optimizing desired densities and uses Contextual: TOD anchors civic identify, neighborhood diversity, and social inclusion Synergistic: TOD leverages complementary development across stations and throughout the system

These values incorporate the collective priorities of our team and our client and define success for the interventions recommended in this report.

2.2 Development Goals The values we hold in planning practice led us to formulate development goals of mixed-ness for Line 3 in Guadalajara: mixed use, mixed community, mixed density, and mixed experience. These goals seek to enhance the dynamicity and vibrancy of Guadalajara by utilizing the opportunity brought by the new Line 3 at a neighborhood scale around station area as well as at the holistic system ● Mixed use promotes the mutual symbiosis of different uses thus different activities and operational time which will encourage lively neighborhood and, at different scale, movement within the city. ● Mixed density accommodates the logic of real estate market as well as enriches the urban form of Guadalajara. ● Mixed community invites people of different background, cultures, and ideas to create rich, harmonious, and constructive interaction. ● Mixed experience informs the desired diversification throughout the city and within neighborhood which lead to compelling stories of Guadalajara one can experienced if different part of the city. Given these goals, and that the city is investing in public realm improvements and transportation infrastructure as well as updating zoning to facilitate this transformation of the city center, there is prime opportunity for these goals to be realized in Guadalajara. However, without a strategic development plan, the city faces two extreme risks: 1. Underutilization of valuable transit and stagnant investment in the historic city center. 2. A sprint to maximum development, which would result in unmanageable strains on infrastructure and enormous congestion. To achieve density levels that both avoid these pitfalls and realize these goals, we believe the city needs an integrated TOD development scheme for the northern part of the city center: Santuario and La Normal Stations. In this report, we demonstrate what a desirable increase in density would look like in Guadalajara’s center, its impact on Line 3, and the development strategies and policy initiatives required to make it happen.

3 Background and Context 3.1 Background of Line 3 President Pena Nieto announced the construction of Line 3 of the Tren Ligero de Guadalajara on the first day of his presidency in December 2012, as one of five federal investments in passenger rail systems. Construction began at the end of 2014 and civil works are expected to be completed in 2018. It will be a 21.45km long line, with 13 elevated and 5 subterranean stations. According to the Federal Secretary of Communications and Transportation (SCT), anticipated benefits of Line 3 include: ● Reduced travel times across the city, with a 33-minute journey time from end to end of the line ● 240,000 passengers per day ● Improved service to health centers, educational facilities, recreational and commercial centers and administrative centers ● Universal accessibility for the elderly and the disabled ● A 17,000 ton reduction in annual CO2 emissions ● 10,000 fewer vehicles per day on the streets in the Av. Alcalde corridor due to a modal shift of 12,000 people from cars to public transit.

Figure 1: Line 3 Map

3.2 Station Typologies Line 3 is the first metropolitan-scale light rail line in Guadalajara. It cuts across three municipalities – Guadalajara, Tlaquepaque, and Zapopan – and right through the metropolitan region’s core. As such, there is a need for a holistic vision that contextualizes how the different parts of the metropolitan area function together. Furthermore, Line 3 requires a framework to organize the stations along the line so that all TOD interventions are rooted in the context of both specific stations and their role in the broader system. Station typologies are a useful tool for understanding this context. Typologies describe the aspirational character of the stations, set expectations for type and extent of investment and change, and help prioritize interventions system-wide.1 To prepare the analysis and classification, we first collected and analyzed data on key urban metrics (e.g., walkshed ratio, block size, land use, population/retail density, residential vacancy, transport connectivity) within specified buffers (i.e., 400 and 800 meters walking distance) around the stations of interest. The team then analyzed the urban form of each station buffers to compare patterns along Line 3. Combining this analysis with knowledge of regulatory restrictions and future development potential, the team assigned each station catchment area a “type” based on existing conditions, potential for development, and the role in the system. Critically, these typologies use current conditions to imagine what each station could be in the future and categorized them accordingly.

We developed these typologies as informed by work done by ITDP, the City of Austin, and Monorail Corridor’s Development Guidelines in Surabaya.

Figure 2: Line 3 Station Classification Analysis

From historic and less dense to development-rich and more dense, the five station typologies are: ● Historic Core (Catedral): Historic center of Jalisco and the Guadalajara metropolitan area, as well as the center of government, commercial and tourist activity. Land use dominated by institutions, churches, museums and public space, complemented by vibrant, small retail that enhances the experience of a thriving, historic urban fabric. Limited potential for increased density. ● Barrio Central: Historic town center, with strong cultural identity and relatively low residential density. Retail destination for residents of the whole urban area and tourists. Limited potential for increased density due to regulations protecting the historic urban fabric. ● Neighborhood Station: Locally focused node with commercial uses that primarily support the adjacent residential areas. Moderate density surrounding future stations and strong accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists. ● Regional Hub (Central Camionera): Major transfer point for passengers traveling from outside the metropolitan area located near the edge of the transit system and home to concentrated retail activity and regional economic needs. ● Urban Hub: Areas of dense, mixed-use development adjacent to historic centers with strong density proximate to future stations and a relatively steep drop-off as distance from the station increases. A 24/7 destination for a diverse cross-section of users that provides excellent multi-modal connections, as well as pedestrian and bike accessibility. As a result of these comparisons, the research team identified five station typologies, as presented below.

Figure 3: Five station typologies along Line 3, with stations assigned to each.

These TOD typologies allow for contextualized, systemized recommendations based on proposed interventions in specific sites. The following section considers two of these typologies in greater detail: Urban Hub and Barrio Central. The focus on these two typologies represents an intentional and strategic choice because these two typologies present the biggest opportunity for TOD-enabled change and growth.

4 TOD on Alcalde TOD is an urban development strategy that takes advantage of transit-served areas to support mobility options and vitalize neighborhoods. Our vision for TOD in Guadalajara takes advantage of three transformations in the city: the Line 3 transit construction, the Paseo Alcalde corridor redevelopment, and the current zoning policy reform. In light of these investments, we make proposals that support non-motorized travel and walkability; dense and affordable neighborhood development; accessible public space; and an active, diverse, and inclusive urban form along Line 3. Located in the historic core of Guadalajara, the Alcalde Corridor starts at La Normal station, where the train transitions underground, and continues until past the Cathedral. It is an area that encompasses many of the major cultural, political, and institutional activities of the city. The area houses both historically designated areas that have diverse social and economic functions as well as ’unlimited’ development zones that can play a key role in absorbing development that the historic district cannot. The 2.5km corridor is lined with low rise and buildings that evoke the human scale, contributing to the street’s walkability potential. The corridor is well-located for creating a connection between different typologies and providing a diverse experience for all that visit or reside in it in a manner that reflects best TOD practices.

4.1 Guadalajara’s Plan for Alcalde With the construction of Line 3 under Alcalde, the city of Guadalajara set plans to transform Alcalde into a street that primarily caters to active transport, aiming to make it one of the bestconnected centers in Latin America. These efforts begin with a reconfiguration of the existing wide and congested six lane street into a narrower and more pedestrian friendly one. The Alcalde Corridor will begin with four lanes, narrow into two lanes as it approaches Calle Hospital and then become a closed, walking street. This walking street will be the longest walkway in Mexico. In addition to the reconfiguration of the street, the city is also investing in improving the streetscape of the Alcalde corridor by installing concrete pavement, extending sidewalks, installing underground wiring and making Alcalde semi-pedestrian. Our plan for Alcalde leverages these improvements to create a corridor that combines friendly streetscapes with active use to encourage transit use and economic development.

4.2 Our Vision for Alcalde The remainder of this report focuses on a TOD vision strategy for the northern Alcalde corridor. This strategy emphasizes two stations critical to the city’s TOD vision and emblematic of conditions elsewhere along Line 3: La Normal and Santuario. For each station, we modeled in detail potential interventions that would help these stations realize TOD value.

Figure 4: Zones of analysis along the Northern Alcalde Corridor, including an 800 meter radius surrounding Santuario and La Normal stations.

These two stations are representative and illustrative of development across the metropolitan area, as informed by their typologies: Urban Hub and Barrio Central. While La Normal is the Line 3 station with the greatest number of publicly-owned large parcels and the greatest potential development intensity, Santuario is an exemplar for possible infill development in a dense residential area. While distinct, the two stations areas are also tightly integrated: La Normal hosts many large, high intensity parcels that can serve as important district anchors for the Santuario area. Proposed interventions at La Normal include: attracting new development, promoting humancentric urban design, developing large available sites (e.g., relocation of Universidad de Guadalajara), and linking investment to the Santuario neighborhood. Interventions at Santuario include: freeing up underused space, encouraging optimal use, strengthening existing business, and taking advantage of historic investment tools. Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

more, Santuario is a potential transition space between La Normal and the historic core surrounding the Catedral station. Due to their proximity to the center of Guadalajara, these stations offer the opportunity to complement existing interventions such as the future Ciudad Creativa Digital, the transformation of Calle San Felipe, and the renovation of Parque del Refugio. This strategic plan proposed for each station incorporates existing investments in transit and public space; outlines the additional components needed to fully realize successful TOD; and describes policy, finance and design interventions tailored to each stationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s context and destiny. The policy, finance, and design interventions draw upon the individual contexts of the areas; the relationship between the stations; and the role their typologies play along the line.

5 Station-Specific TOD Strategies This section includes design and development proposals for La Normal and Santuario. We came to these proposals using an iterative methodology that included a design charrette, model building, and strategy development. This whole process was informed by prior contextual research from our site visits, case study analyses, informant interviews, and contextual analysis.

5.1 Methodology To reach final recommendations, we engaged in a 3-step iterative process: i.

Design Charrette: A design charrette was conducted by identifying the key qualities that each typology should possess. For the Urban Hub, the designers focused on ensuring an efficient and comfortable shift between automobiles to public transit, pedestrian, and cycling modes. As an important point of modal transition, the Urban Hub must offer the opportunity for 24/7 use that is supported by both the commercial, public amenities, and landmark structure surrounding it. For the Barrio Central, preservation of cultural heritage for the benefit of existing residents, visiting tourists, and local businesses was critical. Understanding these qualitative goals, the teams identified areas of opportunity at each station, which included identifying sites for development, re-zoning, and/or new transportation interventions. By identifying these areas of opportunity, the station areas could be redesigned to maximize their potential as Urban Hub and Barrio Central typologies that help unlock Line 3â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s TOD value. The group then reviewed and revised the charrette results to ensure integration and consistency.

Figure 5: The research teamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s design charrette process, including the design output for the La Normal Station area.

ii.

Model Building: The design outputs from the design charrette informed specific parameters for density and land use that the team then incorporated into the 3D

iii.

model. These models visualize how the recommended interventions would be realized in each of the station areas. Adjustments were made as needed based on the observations of building size, land use, and transportation capacity and flows. For more details, see the Appendix (Section 9.1). Implementation Strategy: The last step was developing an effective implementation strategy to encourage public institutions, private developers, and other stakeholders to take actions in support of the recommended vision. These strategies are described in much more detail in Section 6.

5.2 Research and Analysis Assumptions Before diving into the interventions and strategies developed from this process, it important to list the underlying assumptions we made in order to overcome limitations in time, space, and data. The station classification system began with a sound quantitative-driven approach using different urban metrics. We ultimately arrived at the station typologies by combining these data with our qualitative sense of what each individual stationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s potential might be in the future based on consultation with local informants, on-site observations, and remote analysis of the current surrounding environs using Google Street View. Thus, the typology scheme is neither purely data-driven nor purely subjective: it is a hybrid blend. Our envisioned transformations of these sites should be understood and used as a compass more so than a rule book. We have deliberately included changes to the land use mix and built environment that may prove difficult to accomplish due to several constraints. Institutionality and overlapping jurisdictions will condition the legal process and negotiations required to realize our vision. Moreover, due to constraints in obtaining reliable market data regarding real estate prices and land value, we had to make assumptions regarding unit price, unit size, area per person for different land use categories, etc. Most of these assumptions were based on extensive conversations with developers and real estate consultants in Guadalajara. However, they might not be reflective of current market trends in our chosen study areas. Finally, as remote researchers, we have not engaged civil society in Guadalajara in a collaborative process. Dramatic proposals such as parcel subdivision and consolidation, redirection of traffic and relocation of institutional offices might be met with strong public opposition. We strongly recommend that any future work on this project includes this essential component. We would like to emphasize that the following sections focus on our vision for these two station catchment areas and demonstrate the relationships, interdependencies and synergies possible in Guadalajaraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s urban development. Local experts are best positioned to evaluate the more detailed aspects of implementation. We hope these development schemes illustrate the potential and give you a road map of how you might be able to achieve that potential.

5.3 Santuario 5.3.1 Current Conditions Overview Santuario station has been classified as a Barrio Central typology and is situated on Avenida Alcalde between the historic city center, Catedral, and La Normal. In the very center of the catchment area, across the street from the proposed station is a historic Catholic Church, Shrine of Our Lady of Guadalupe that faces a large park. There are a few anchor institutions near the station including Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias, Instituto Nacional de Migracion, Mercado Alcalde, and Mercado San Diego, as well as some notable parks, Parque del Refugio, and the public park across the street from the hospital. The surrounding catchment area is dominated by densely packed, tiny low-rise parcels.

Figure 5: Cultural assets in the Santuario area (left) and block structure of 400 meter (red) and 800 meter (pink) buffers surrounding Santuario.

Within the 800-meter walkshed area there are over 12,000 buildings; with a majority built to just two floors or less and only 166 structures are over five stories. This is despite the existing zoning policy that allows for development up to eight stories. While the area has not densified vertically, the parcel lots are tightly developed with few undeveloped or open parcels.

Challenges Implementing a successful TOD strategy for Santuario will require significant planning and oversight because densification in this environment necessitates coordination of efforts across many small parcels with diverse and sometimes informal ownership. The tightly packed small buildings that dominate Santuario contribute to its intimate character but pose a challenge for redevelopment as few parcels are large enough to accommodate vertical development. At the block scale, you can see how the very aspects that make this built environment attractive and comfortable also constrain its redevelopment (figure 7). All sizes and

shapes of parcels in this area share two dominant features that are co-dependent and therefore hard to separate: they have generous and lively internal courtyards but that relies on building to the zero-lot-line at all the other edges meaning that the courtyards become the primary source of light. The public benefit of this development pattern is that it establishes a street wall that makes the street feel enclosed, intimate and human-centric, however it can be relentless if there is no occasional relief from that street wall in the form of a small plaza or park space. Redevelopment will therefore have to be sensitive to the need to complement this zero-lot-line and courtyard development norm in ways that maintain intimacy while ensuring access to light and green space.

Figure 6: Typical Block Layout (left) and Parcel Pattern (right) of 400 meter Santuario Station Catchment area.

This development pattern manifests differently across the three core parcel typologies of the area, pictured above (figure 7). First, we see small square “leftover” parcels under 150 square meters that tend to occupy the space left between larger parcels and at the corners of blocks. These parcels are too small to support development at a higher intensity and many of them are already at full lot coverage with no setbacks or courtyards. The second category is the dominant parcel typology – a roughly 10 meter frontage and 30 meter depth – that ranges from 150 square meters to 500 square meters and typically has one or more internal courtyards. This second category can support additional density on the back half of the lot taking the dominant 1-

2 story structures to 4 stories. Finally, there are a smaller number of parcels that are above 500 square meters and have more irregular shapes, many occupying corner lots or mid-block lots known locally as “corazón de manzana” parcels. These parcels can generally support vertical development of 5-7 stories, but their unique shapes and relationships to adjacent structures makes them all non-standard infill types. Compounding the challenge of the existing parcel fabric, this catchment area has a 22% residential vacancy rate, indicating that the existing built environment is underutilized despite being physically built up. Commercial spaces are also underutilized although for different reasons. Construction along Line 3 has resulted in sections of Avenida Alcalde being closed off for the past few years with foot and car traffic diverted to adjacent streets. Consequently, business development in the area has slowed significantly, resulting in the closure of some establishments. Use of upper floors for commercial inventory storage is also common in this area meaning that public street life is not as lively as it could be if those upper floors were filled with active human-centric uses. Finally, despite the wealth of quality anchor institutions and public spaces in this area, pedestrian links between anchor institutions are often nonexistent. Despite the human scale of private development, the area does not feel designed for people. The streets that make up a major part of the corridor: Calle Manuel Acuña and Calle Hospital mostly cater to cars, have no dedicated bike lanes, and limited sidewalks. Key connecting streets between Refugio Station (Line 1) with the new Santuario Station remain car-oriented despite the potential to increase ridership for both lines with a pedestrian and bike-oriented link. This lack of active streetscapes and uses could result in Santuario becoming a passage from one hub to another instead of an attractive destination in and of itself.

Opportunities Successful TOD combines friendly streetscapes with active uses to increase the staying power of an area and encourage the use of transit. There are three main corridors we have identified that, if appropriately and sensitively developed, could vastly improve TOD within Santuario by connecting anchor uses and reinforcing desired paths of movement. The vertical (north-south) Alcalde Corridor and two horizontal (west-east) connection corridors have potential to create important links between the catchment area, downtown, Line 1, and the site’s anchor institutions and parks. The momentum of the Cine Roxy cultural corridor as well as the Ciudad Creativa Digital campus offer glimpses of the dynamic cultural identity and latent potential of Santuario. Investing in these connections will hugely improve the walkability of the area as well as the desirability for pedestrians to venture out from the station. We see opportunities to improve the mobility of Santuario by increasing biking and reducing car use. Creating a commuter biking corridor could provide additional incentive to decrease car use in the area; and there is an opportunity to detour motorized vehicles outside the Santuario area. Following the car restriction that have been in place along Avendia Alcalde during construction, we could foresee keeping some restrictions in place to keep the area more pedestrian friendly. There is also potential for development in Santuario that would reinforce and activate the pedestrian and bike corridors. Despite the small parcels, there are opportunities to make more efficient use of existing spaces and to expand upon those spaces with infill development that adds density while complementing the historic character of the city. Design guidelines will both allow for vertical density, as well as provide adequate setbacks to maintain the unique feel and distinctive style of Santuario. Within Santuario we have identified several areas with development potential. Following construction, the Alcalde Corridor is primed for both

commercial and residential development, including several large parcels that have potential for vertical density. The area surrounding the Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias is an opportune site for residential development. The land is zoned for mixed use and borders a residential zone; lower land values, and large parcels, indicate that affordable housing options could be explored here. Parque Alcalde likewise offers a powerful anchor for desireable vertical market-rate residential development. Additional infill development could take place throughout the catchment area, including the west-east corridor we have identified to connect Parque del Refugio and the hospital. Santuario is on the cusp of becoming a commercial hub and city destination. With strategic design and purposeful development, Santuario can become more than the passage between Catedral and La Normal, and instead will thrive as a bustling Barrio Central destination with a distinct identity of its own.

5.3.2 Santuario Development Vision and Plan As a Barrio Central station type, Santuario is a low-density retail and cultural destination with significant historic fabric. While the neighborhoodâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s historic protections and small parcel sizes constrain large-scale development, this historic structure has an inherent TOD character just beneath the surface. With a coordinated public and private investment in densification along corridors that connect anchors and assets, the inherent intimate human-centric feel of these districts come alive and their distinctive identity becomes legible. Selective and sensitive intervention accompanied by comprehensive policy support systems is the key to successful TOD for stations like Santuario. The following section presents our philosophy and guidelines for infill development, then illustrates how this development will occur along several corridors of interest. The result is a walkable, dense, human-scale, historic Barrio Santuario.

Figure 7: Typical Block Layout (left) and Parcel Pattern (right) of 400 meter Santuario Station Catchment area.

5.3.2.1 Development Framework Barrio Central stations share several common features that inform the types of TOD interventions needed. First, there is a need to establish differentiated dominant paths by mode and to gear private redevelopment towards that differentiated system of trunks and feeder routes. Furthermore, there is a need to draw out existing anchors and assets and facilitate the transformation of corridors that connect and reinforce those anchors/assets as part of a legible network that begin to solidify a public image and identity for the station that will attract and focus development.

Figure 8: Multi-Modal Circulation, Anchor Uses and Retail that shape the Development Framework.

Figure 9: Development Intensity.

Densification in this context is achieved by selective infill. Infill priority sites are chosen by a multi-step process: (1) Identify key anchors and corridors for bike and pedestrian links (2) Determine the desired use mix to reinforce and complement existing character of those anchors and corridors (3) Create a densification buffer of 1-3 blocks around those anchors and corridors (4) Within the buffer identify uniquely significant catalyst sites whose location, scale or visibility make them particularly important for district redevelopment (5) For the remaining parcels within the buffer, select all parcels of 500 square meters or greater for vertical infill development of 5-7 stories. Figure 10 shows in dark grey where these vertical infill parcel types are located throughout the Santuario 800 meter catchment area. See Figure 11 and accompanying text for more detail on this infill type. (6) For the remaining parcels within the buffer that cannot accommodate vertical development, select parcels between 150 and 500 square meters for low-rise densification. Figure 10 shows in light grey where these low-rise infill parcel types are located throughout the Santuario 800 meter catchment area. See Figure 12 and accompanying text for more detail on this infill type.

Figure 10: Low-Rise Infill Development Building Typology.

This 5-7 story typology is designed for parcels that are 500 square meters or greater, many of which occupy the centers of blocks (â&#x20AC;&#x153;corazĂłn de manzanaâ&#x20AC;? parcels) and many of which occupy corners and middle stretches of blocks. At the ground floor, this typology builds to the zero lot line for about half of their street frontage and then sets back to offer a 10 meter deep inset public courtyard space that would serve as the dominant entrance to the building. The back of the ground floor would be allocated to private automobile parking and would allow a single curb cut at the lot line to provide access to the parking - this curb cut would be required to be located as far as possible from the dominant entry courtyard. The setbacks of upper stories would be controlled as follows: a required street setback of 12 meters kicks in at the 3rd story (7 meters above street level) and after that a progressively smaller allowed floor plate (80% lot coverage for first 2 floors, 60% lot coverage for floors 3-5, and 40% lot coverage for floors 6-7). The net effect of these parameters would be to create a multi-dimensional terracing typology that preserves light and air access to private spaces, provides varied rooftop outdoor space, and offers a more expansive and comfortable public realm at the ground floor that can provide relief from the consistent zero-lot-line street wall that is both a strength and challenge for the historic areas of Guadalajara.

Figure 11: Low-Rise Infill Development Building Typology.

This 4 story typology is designed for the dominant parcel type in Santuario which is approximately 10 meter of street frontage and 30 meter of depth (yielding 150-500 square meters of lot area) with 1-2 internal courtyards that offer light and air circulation to buildings that are otherwise built lot line to the 0 lot line. This densification strategy adds 2 stories at the back of the parcel behind a ground floor open-air internal courtyard. This typology is achieved through a 12 meter upper story setback kicks in at a height of 7m, which is a generous proxy for 2 floors) This terracing strategy ensures high-quality private living conditions by keeping the building mass constrained to a size that allows light and air circulation. It also maintains the lower story roofs as an active upper courtyard space that can be used as outdoor living space. This building typology would be exempt from the parking requirement and would rely on street parking for private automobiles.

5.3.2.2 Key features of Barrio Santuario In light of our analysis of the Santuario Station area, we identified three corridors as the backbone of its TOD development. Alcalde is the North-South corridor that has been emphasized for car reduction, pedestrian prioritized and street revitalization. To facilitate TOD along Alcalde, we are also proposing to extend the connection west-east to incorporate more functions and users to the station and Line 3. Therefore, 2 more west-east corridors are identified, which expand the TOD service area and make the overall Santuario area more appealing for transit use. We also propose a Commuter Biking Corridor, which will provide additional incentive to decrease car use in the area. Finally, Parque Alcalde and the Hospital Area are identified as anchors for vertical housing.

In order to maximize the TOD potential of the Santuario Station area, would encourage motorized vehicles to detour outside the Santuario area following the car restriction taking place along Alcalde. A few vehicular corridors that can take heavy traffic would be Calz. Federalismo, Calz. Independencia Nte. and Av. de los Maestros. Vehicular traffic within the 3 major trunks will be much limited due to one-way traffic flow, reduced curbside parking and prioritized pedestrian and our proposed biking streets.

Figure 12: Overall Map showing Santuario Station Area corridor redevelopment

5.3.2.2.1 The Alcalde Commercial Corridor Located in the heart of Guadalajara, the Alcalde Corridor runs along the historic Paseo Fray Antonio Alcalde and connects three central Line 3 Stations. This corridor connects La Normal-identified as an Urban Hub in the northern part of Paseo Alcalde--to Santuario, a Barrio Central and the Historic Core at Catedral. From the north to the south, the Alcalde Corridor is a gradient between a (potentially) high-density residential and office typology to a low rise commercial and historic center. The 2.5km Corridor is lined with charming low-rise historic buildings that inspire a human scale, contributing to the streetâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s walkability potential. Therefore, the corridor is a prime candidate for strengthening the connection between different typologies and providing a diverse experience for visitors and residents in a manner that reflects best TOD practices.

Figure 13: Alcalde Commercial Corridor, with nearby parks (green) and institutional uses (blue)

Alcalde Commercial Corridor | Current Context Currently, the Alcalde Corridor is in dismal condition. Construction along Line 3 has resulted in the area being closed off for the past few years with foot and car traffic diverted to adjacent streets. Consequently, business development in the area has slowed significantly, resulting in the closure of some establishments, causing a decline in the vibrancy of the street. Additionally, the area has faced a high vacancy rate, with many upper levels of the predominant two-story buildings left unoccupied or used for warehousing by commercial establishments on the ground floor.

Alcalde Commercial Corridor | Relevant Interventions Underway The city of Guadalajara plans to transform Alcalde into a hub of active transport, which supports plans to establish Alcalde as one of the best-connected centers in Latin America. This effort began with the reconfiguration of parts of Alcalde from a congested, six-lane roadway into a narrower, pedestrian-friendly street. Under the current plans, the Alcalde Corridor will turn into a

four-lane street when it reaches Jesus Garcia, narrow to two lanes as it approaches Calle Hospital, and then become a closed, pedestrian-only walkway when it reaches the Santuario Station. In addition, redesigning the roadway, the city is investing in improving the streetscape of the Alcalde corridor by installing concrete pavement, extending sidewalks, installing underground wiring and making the Avenida Alcalde semi-pedestrian.

Figure 14: Proposed streetscaping for Alcalde Corridor. Image Source: City of Guadalajara

Alcalde Commercial Corridor | Proposed Interventions Successful TOD combines friendly streetscapes with active uses to increase the staying power of an area and encourage the use of transit. As mentioned before, the Alcalde Corridor currently lacks the activity needed to attract and maintain the interest of residents and visitors. Despite interventions made by the city to beautify the streetscape, the lack of active uses will result with the Alcalde Corridor becoming a passage from one hub to another instead of an attractive destination in and of itself. In order to take full advantage of the unique location of the area, and support the investment the city is making in the reconfiguration of the roadway, we have identified parcels with potential for redevelopment to increase the vibrancy of the area. These parcels were chosen because they are large enough to support infill development and only have low-medium historic preservation restrictions. Parcels smaller than 150 are not suitable for redevelopment; parcels between 150 and 500 square meters are allowed to be built up to four stories; parcels 500 square meters or larger were identified as having potential for vertical development, corresponding to our 5-7 story typology. More details about how to build will be discussed in the infill design framework in the later section.

Figure 15: Parcels identified for vertical development along Alcalde Commercial Corridor.

The following image shows an example of the sections that compare the current building density with that of our proposed interventions.

Figure 16: Typical current cross-section along Alcalde Corridor. Image Source: Google Earth.

Figure 17: Rendering of Alcalde with new typologies

Santuario Station Catalyst Site In addition to the above identified parcels, we also propose a major redevelopment of a large parcel in front of the Santuario Station.

Figure 18: Map of Alcalde Corridor Santuario Station Catalyst Site

Three medium-sized parcels at the corner of Calle Juan Alvarez and Av. Alcalde present key opportunities for development. Together, these parcels afford 3,324 square meters of developable space directly adjacent to the future Santuario Station entrance, and directly across from the Palacio Federal as well as a large city park of approximately 5000 square meters. Within this block are several homes and businesses, including three restaurants, a dental clinic, and a pharmacy. The three parcels of interest are currently used for covered surface parking for approximately 110 cars (see photo below). As such, our team is proposing that the density of these parcels be increased to the maximum allowable, without fear that such redevelopment will displace any of the significant existing uses on the block. Our team believes that this site can be redeveloped within the existing development constraints with a proposed lot coverage of .8 -- the typical maximum in Guadalajara. This includes at least 650 square meters of open space on the lot to provide adequate space for the station entrance area. The entrance area would be comprised of approximately 55 meters of frontage along Av. Alcalde with a depth of approximately 12 meters. This strip could be used for sidewalk cafe seating and passive recreation, with vegetation and statuary that reflects the styles found in the park across the street and thus extends the greens along the El Verde Refugio Corridor, which will be discussed in the following section.

With the remainder of the parcel area, we propose redevelopment to the maximum allowable density of a CUS/ICUS of 7.2, which translates to a floor area of approximately 24,000 square meters. We recommend a nine-floor tower with 2664 square meters per floor, which translates to a tower height of approximately 46 meters, well within the building height limit of 70 meters and lower than the neighboring ISSSTE Tower.2 We recommend that the proposed tower house office space on the first four floors and hotel space on the next four. We would anticipate roughly 250 hotel rooms3 and XX workers.4 We anticipate that the market has suitable demand for the additional hotel space. Hotels and restaurants account for 26.1% of businesses in the City of Guadalajara, but just 20% of businesses in the Santuario area. What’s more, despite the abundance of destinations and jobs in the station area, there are relatively few hotels in the Santuario area, with the majority of existing hotels being low-rise owner-operated hotels. The full block is zoned for intensive mixed use, and this development would fit within the current zoning.

5.3.2.2.2 El Verde Refugio (The Green Refuge Corridor) Extending along Santuario’s East-West access, the proposed Green Refuge Corridor begins at El Refugio Station (Line 1), continues northeast to Calle Manuel Acuna past a prominent and busy market, across the Santuario Station area, and finally east along Calle Hospital to the Hospital Civil de Guadalajara medical complex and the Jardin Botanico. This corridor is relevant because it forms a direct connection between major anchors in the area. One of the main connection the corridor forms is between three large public spaces; Parque del Refugio, a park at the corner of Calle Manuel Acuña and Av. Alcalde or Avenida Fray Antonio Alcalde, and Jardín Botánico. Additionally, it connects the newly proposed Roxy Cultural Corridor with our proposed redevelopment of the Alcalde Corridor and the active street adjacent to the Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, which is a major regional attraction. Lastly, the corridor forms a connection between the Line 1 and Line 3. Thus, this corridor is strategically located to implement TOD development that prioritizes links between different anchors, increases walkability and encourages the use of the two metro lines in the city.

http://www.ctbuh.org/HighRiseInfo/TallestDatabase/Criteria/HeightCalculator/tabid/1007/language/enGB/Default.aspx 3 At a ratio of 1 hotel room per 100 square meters of hotel space. https://www.energystar.gov/ia/business/tools_resources/target_finder/help/Space_Use_Information_-_Hotel.htm 4 TO COME

Figure 19: El Verde Refugio, with nearby parks (green) and institutional uses (blue).

El Verde Refugio | Current Context Currently, this corridor has also fallen victim to the area’s underuse and lacks vibrancy. Additionally, its ability to become a major connective pathway between different anchors is grossly underutilized. The streets that make up a major part of the corridor, i.e. Calle Manuel Acuña and Calle Hospital mostly cater to cars, have no dedicated bike lanes and have limited and unengaging sidewalks. Although the area has three large scale parks, they stand as separate entities and there has been no effort to create a connection between them to increase their utility as public spaces. Finally, no effort has been made to connect Refugio Station (Line 1) with Santuario Station (Line 3), which misses out on a major opportunity to increase ridership for both lines by encouraging a link between them in Downtown Guadalajara.

El Verde Refugio | Relevant Interventions Underway One key element of this diagonal corridor is its connection to Jardín el Refugio -- a 15,000 square meter park on la Calzada Federalismo adjacent to an existing Line 1 station. In July

2017, the City of Guadalajara presented a rehabilitation of the park that called for an investment of 20 million pesos. The renovation will include four new puntos limpios garbage stations, bathrooms, a playground, drinking fountains, market pergolas, and 42 trees. According to the city’s Proyecto ampliación y ordenamiento, the city plans to activate the park space for commerce, culture, and sports and recreation. The city’s plan includes minor extensions of the park into the streetscape on the park’s western and eastern edges, thereby extending green space into the neighborhood.

Figure 20: Current design proposal for Parque Refugio.

Figure 21: TOD priorities for Parque del Refugio redesign.

The propose El Verde Refugio Corridor will also integrate with the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Roxy Corredor Cultural, which will extend from from Avenida Miguel Hidalgo y Castilla to Calle JoaquĂn Angulo along Calle Mezquitan just south of Refugio Park. The Roxy is a former cinema that is being transformed into a cultural complex; the City of Guadalajara plans to pedestrianized Calle Mezquitan to leverage the Roxy investment. For most of the Calle Mezquitan redesign, the city has chosen to reallocate street space to favor foot traffic and green space (see Section B diagram below). Specifically, of the 9.5 meters of street space, the city plans to allocate 3.4 meters to vehicular traffic and 1-2.15 meters of sidewalk per side, along with one lane of cordoned parking. Our team is proposing a similar intervention along the diagonal corridor.

El Verde Refugio | Proposed Interventions Similar to our proposal for the Alcalde Corridor, we propose increasing density for parcels around the Verde Refuge Corridor. The following map shows the identified parcels. These parcels have the potential to provide space for housing and commerce. More importantly, the parcels along the El Verde Refugio Corridor have the potential to provide space for institutional use, which will need to be shifted south from La Normal to make room for our proposed interventions around the La Normal Station catchment area.

Figure 22: Development Parcels along El Verde Refugio Corridor

However, the most relevant intervention we recommend for this diagonal corridor is to improve its streetscaping and utilize the opportunity to better connect essential anchors in the Santuario area. Following TOD best practices, we propose a new streetscape design that creates a coherent and engaging path between these anchors to encourage foot traffic and the use of active transport. The main interventions that this streetscaping proposes is the reduction of parking spaces to free up room for a wider pedestrian walkway and bike lane along Calle Manuel Acuna and Calle Hospital. We recommend creating a green buffer that lines wide walkways on both streets with trees and creates a canopy over them to make the street more visually appealing and separates pedestrians from the vehicles. We recommend the mimicking of this green buffer to create paths cutting through Refugio Park and the Park at the corner of Calle Manuel AcuĂąa and Av. Alcalde. This way, the green canopy (which gives this diagonal corridor its name, El Verde Refugio) will be a prominent and noticeable path that encourages movement across the corridor. Additionally, a few more enhancements would have to be done to make this section of the Corridor more appealing for pedestrians such as including additional streetlights to make walking at night safer. The Following graphics show snippets of our proposed recommendation for El Verde Refugio Corridor.

Figure 23: Current cross section at Calle Manuel AcuĂąa, north to the market. Image Source: Google Earth.

Figure 24: Proposed cross-section at Calle Manuel AcuĂąa. 1.6 m Sidewalk. 2.3 m Parking. 3 m Driving Lane. 1.6 m Bike Lane. 4 m Walkway.

Figure 25: Current cross section at Calle Hospital. Image Source: Google Earth

Figure 26: Proposed cross-section at Calle Hospital. 1.6 m Sidewalk. 3.4 m Driving Lane. 1.6 m Bike Lane. 4 m Walkway.

One barrier that the Diagonal Corridor may face is that our development scenario is based on the presumed success of multiple ongoing projects, including the Roxy theater, the Santuario station building, CCD, etc. Site development takes time and for this corridor to succeed, a

phasing strategy would need to be initiated to manage land acquisition and financing. Since corridor and destinations mutually enhance the use of each other, comprehensive long-term planning with innovative policy instruments will have to be carried out to ensure consistent effort on a large-scale, multiple-stakeholder development scheme. In the latter half of the chapter, we will introduce some policy suggestions.

Parque Refugio Catalyst Site

Figure 27: El Verde Refugio Corridor Catalyst Site (in yellow)

The block bounded by Calle Manuel Acuna, Calle Contrera Medellin, Calle Ignacio Herrera y Cairo, and Mariano del Barcena also affords an opportunity to stitch together the Verde Refugio Corridor. Of the blockâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lot area of approximately 9500 square meters, approximately 2250 square meters are dedicated to surface parking, with space for about 70 cars. The remainder of the block consists of mostly housing, with three small businesses along Calle Contreras Medellin. With the acquisition of a single parcel, the parking lot could be converted into an anchor institutional redevelopment with a diagonal cut-through corridor park connecting Refugio to Calle MaĂąuel Acuna. From there, pedestrians would need to walk just three blocks to

Santuario Park and then only three more to Jardin Botanico, thus knitting together a “Green Route” of park space, as called for in the Historic Center Master Streetscape plan. The proposed changes integrate nicely with the Historic Center Master Streetscape Plan’s “Green Network,” which identifies a set of streets to be renovated or maintained (i.e., public space, walls, facades, roofs, etc). This network includes several streets of interest in the Santuario area, including the north-south streets Calle Pedro Loza (south of Calle Juan Alvarez), Calle Liceo (south of Calle Hospital) and the east-west streets Calle Hospital and Calle Juan Alvarez (between Avenida Alcalde and Coronel Calderon), as well as Calle Ignacio Herrera y Cairo, Calle Garibaldi, Calle Reforma, and Calle San Felipe between Jardín del Refugio and Parque Morelos. The plan does not propose closing streets to vehicular traffic, but rather calls for cross streets to have trees and planters on every corner, in order to links buildings and significant spaces, such as the markets el Mercado Alcalde, el de la Capilla and el de San Diego.

5.3.2.2.3 Ciudad Creativa Digital Campus Corridor

Figure 28: Ciudad Creative Digital Campus Corridor

Another important corridor to draw users to Alcalde is the West-East corridor connects the Ciudad Creativa Digital (CCD) campus to Secretaria de Cultura Jalisco, the area that has government offices in historical buildings. This corridor is recognized by the CCD as a major connector between the projectâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s campus and the historic downtown. However, the current streetscaping of connecting corridors is not appealing enough to form this connection. We recommend that Calle San Felipe and Calle Reforma facilitate the tourists and commuters to CCD, having the historical and 21st century modern workersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; space in one spatial orientation. This walkable and pedestrian friendly corridor strong anchors will encourage influx of users into Alcalde, and facilitate the Alcalde Commercial Corridor in turn. The team is currently not proposing any streetscaping interventions for this area in acknowledgment of the CCDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s planned interventions. Instead, we have identified some parcels that can be further developed to enhance the densification of the area. The following diagram shows these parcels.

Figure 29: Development Parcels along Ciudad Creative Digital Campus Connector

5.3.2.2.4 Commuter Biking Corridors

The three major corridors mentioned above are dedicated to being pedestrian prioritized corridors, featuring for close connection among urban functional zones, high-quality services and attractions. There are other types of corridors that we define in the area, for example, bike corridors designed for bike commuters. Commuter bike corridors are important for commuters who bike at relatively high speeds and travel longer distances. By instituting these commuter biking corridors, our intervention seeks to provide complementary and efficient lanes to existing ones and encourage biking as a substitute for driving. This intervention follows TOD best practices and will help reduce car use and facilitate sustainable use of multi-modal transportation options. Despite the availability of MIBICI biking rental stations, the Santuario Station area currently has very limited biking infrastructure and has no dedicated commuter biking corridor. This lack of biking infrastructure makes it unappealing and even dangerous to bike in the area. This lack of another option for independent transit indirectly motivates people to use cars, even for short distance travel. The following proposed bike corridors are shown below. Among all the identified corridors, Calle Juan Alvarez, Calle Manuel AcuĂąa, Juan Manuel and Calle Independencia would have one-way designated bike lane East to West and West to East. The bike corridors share the same orientation of the pedestrian corridors, as both types of corridors serve the employment hubs and popular activity places, including the hospital, Ciudad Creativa Digital and Parque Alcalde that we have previously identified. However, we believe that the commuter bike corridors keep distance from the three major corridors (pedestrian oriented) for the sake of travel speed and safety considerations. For the North-South direction, we identify Calle BelĂŠn and Mariano de la BĂĄrcena to be the major commuter biking corridors. The adjacent one-way street would be supplementary for travel to the opposite direction. Those biking corridors also keep a distance from the heavy traffic roads like Calz. de Federalismo Nte., aiming to serve the neighborhood with an active transport alternative.

Figure 30: Santuario area bicycle corridors (purple)

Next, we will show some current streetscapes of the biking corridors and our proposed streetscape design. The idea is that we convert some portion of the street to designated bike lane. The advantage of those bike corridors is that people are already using the streets for biking and facilities like street lighting and trees are present.

Figure 31: Current sample streetscape, at 160 Calle Independencia. Image Source: Google Earth

We propose that the new streetscape will get rid of the parking lane--freeing up spaces for bicycle and bicycle infrastructure like bike rack, MIBICI stations and necessary buffers. We may consider vertical garage at corner of some blocks or underground parking in new vertical buildings.

2.2m Sidewalk | 2m Bike Lane | 4m Car | 2.2m Walkway

Figure 32: Proposed cross-section at 160 Calle Independencia. 2.2 m Sidewalk. 4 m Driving Lane. 2 m Bike Lane. 2.2 m Walkway.

5.3.2.2.5 Hospital Civil Viejo as Development Anchor for Housing Increasing residential usage along Alcalde and within the Santuario catchment area will increase transit usage and therefore is an important component of TOD. Specifically, there is a need for affordable housing to accommodate local small business owners and employees that want to live near the city center. Given that the Alcalde Corridor will be able to accommodate only limited densification due to historic preservation laws prohibiting major renovations, much of the redevelopment along Alcalde will likely be market-rate. Therefore, the recommendation for the Santuario catchment area is to explore affordable housing opportunities in the northeast quadrant near the Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias where the land value is less, but the location is still quite desirable. The area surrounding the Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias is an opportune site for development. The area is zoned for mixed use and borders a residential zone (which is located north of the hospital). There are currently both residential and commercial developments, but the buildings are low-rise even though they are on larger parcels that have potential for more vertical density. While the neighborhood does not have a good reputation for safety, an increase in residential

development will lead to more people throughout the day which will lead to a more active (and safe) street.

Figure 33: Current sample streetscape, at Calle Coronel Calderon near Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias. Image Source: Google Earth

To improve the affordable housing options within the Santuario catchment area, we propose exploring the development of larger parcels in the area surrounding Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias. The zoning has already been approved to allow for building heights of up to 8 floors with a buildable area of .7. The MIT research team found this area to have the lowest pricing in the Santuario catchment area, making it a prime area to consider development by the city. The graphic below depicts parcels that are both large enough to develop, not hindered by historic preservation laws, and with (comparably) low assessed values of the land.

Figure 34: Development Parcels surrounding for Hospital Civil Viejo Urgencias

The low land value could be due to the safety concerns in the area, which would be improved by more active use, such as residential development and commercial services and stores that cater to residential uses. When residents live and shop in a neighborhood, the stores remain open later, leading to more activity on the street and a safer environment. While each parcel would need to be evaluated to see how the potential development may be implemented, there are many sites to pursue in this area. Funding options for affordable housing can be found in the Legal and Fiscal Policy Framework.

5.3.2.2.6 Parque Alcalde as Development Anchor for Housing This is a relatively simple strategy that merely acknowledges the existing strength and attraction of Parque Alcalde and seeks to leverage proximity to the park as an anchor for densification of luxury market-rate housing. We suggest that this housing densification should be accompanied with some basic TOD improvements to the park to make it easier to enter from multiple directions (rather than having only a few entrances), and create some strong diagonal paths to make it easy for residents and workers to cross through the park on their way to the closest light rail station.

5.3.3 Santuario Development Impacts

Current density

Maximum allowed

Desirable

Building coverage: 0.70

Building coverage: 0.80

Building coverage: 0.70

FAR: 1.90

FAR: 4.1

FAR: 2.3

Figure 35: Three development scenarios for Santuario Station (current, maximum, and proposed)

Current Density Santuario station and the surrounding catchment area is dominated by densely packed, tiny low-rise parcels. Buildings surrounding Santuario Station commonly extend to the boundaries of the parcel lot, covering almost the entire ground plane. However, the majority of buildings in the catchment area are limited to just 2 to 3 stories in height and include interior courtyards, which act as constraints to densification in the area and an underutilization of Line 3. Maximum Density under Current Zoning The maximum allowable build-out is currently zoned for up to 8 stories. Without adequate policy protections against overbuilding and insensitive design, Santuario’s current zoning could potentially allow for an 1737% increase in ridership. Such density would exceed the capacity of Line 3 entirely, and result in diminished quality of life both in the public realm and private courtyard spaces. We hope to propose a scenario which fits to capacity constraint as well as to local context. Proposed Density: Barrio Santuario We propose a strategic infill densification scheme which would thoughtfully distribute density across Santuario’s blocks. We used parcel size as means to classify parcels to different development typologies. Parcels smaller than 150 are not suitable for redevelopment; parcels between 150 and 500 square meters are allowed to be built up to four stories; parcels 500 square meters or larger were identified as having potential for vertical development, corresponding to our 5-7 story typology. More details about how to build will be discussed in the infill design framework in the later section. By preserving blocks’ interior courtyards and calling for additional floors to be built along selected edges of the courtyards’ perimeters, we believe we can successfully densify

Santuarioâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s urban fabric by targeting the long and narrow parcels that dominate the area. Such an infill development scheme would avoid wholesale replacement and maintain the historic character of the neighborhood.

Figure 36: Massing model for Barrio Santuario.

After we specified the density and land use for the parcels, the 3D model returns the total area of all land uses. The Gross Floor Area has 31% increase from the current scenario to proposed scenario. We assumed 30 square meters/employee and 35 square meters/household to calculate the number of residents and jobs in both existing and proposed scenarios. We then applied our direct ridership model to get a sense of how riders are increased under the proposed densification scenario. The table below shows the number of residents, workers and riders under the existing development and proposed development scenarios. The increased percentage of residents, workers and riders are 146%, 140%, 296%, respectively. The number of trips in AM peak hour will be 4338, satisfying the ridership capacity constraint. Ridership calculation and explanation can be found in Appendices (Section 9). Table 1: Residents, workers, and riders for current and proposed development.

Existing Development

Proposed Development

Population Employment Projected Daily Boardings Additional Population Additional Employment Additional Daily Boardings Total Population Total Employment Total Daily Boardings

Santuario 15858 19119 3000 23152 26675 8893 39010 45794 11893

Based on our assumptions, the proposed scenario also saves 6096 trips, reduces 2100 hours spent in traffic per day and 6472 tons of emissions annually.

5.4 La Normal 5.4.1 Current Conditions Overview The La Normal area was master-planned in the 1960s as a center of institutional activity. Today, the Glorieta La Normal roundabout is surrounded by a number of institutional uses, including the Centro Universitario de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades (CUCSH), Escuela Normal de Jalisco, and offices for public institutions including the State Secretary of Infrastructure and Public Works, State Office of Social Procurement, State Education Secretary, and the State Public Archives (Figure 37). Beyond the institutional uses immediately adjacent to Glorieta La Normal and Av. Alcalde, land use quickly transitions to low-rise residential neighborhoods.

Figure 37: La Normal block structure and existing assets

In the recent city-wide zoning revisions, most of the publicly-owned, institutional parcels were reclassified as commercial use, potentially in anticipation of expected redevelopment plans. La Normal is the last subterranean station before the beginning of Line 3â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s aboveground northwestern section. In addition to the light rail stop, the station will host an underground bus terminal. Buses will enter and exit on ramps to the east of the station.

Challenges La Normalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current condition poses a number of challenges with respect to TOD. First, the urban fabric is strongly oriented towards car-users, with narrow sidewalks, wide streets, few pedestrian crossings and high traffic preventing people from moving around easily on foot. This problem is exacerbated by the large, impermeable parcels, which force pedestrians to walk large distances to get to nearby destinations. The result is a street

environment on the main corridor that lacks vibrancy and does little to attract people beyond those working or visiting the government buildings. The large institutional parcels also represent an inefficient use of land (Figure 38). These parcels generally consist of large office buildings surrounded by parking lots. The same uses could be accommodated on a far smaller amount of land if workers were able to more easily access them on transit and by foot.

Figure 38: Typical block layout adjacent to Glorieta La Normal

Finally, the Glorieta La Normal roundabout is underutilized and is not living up to its potential to anchor the neighborhood. It currently acts to disrupt, rather than orient, the urban fabric. Once construction work for Line 3 is completed, the roundabout will be available for repurposing, and it is essential that this opportunity is not wasted.

Opportunities Despite these challenges, there are a number of positive factors that make the La Normal a particularly promising area for pursuing TOD. With its location immediately north of Guadalajaraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s historic core, La Normal is in close proximity to the city center without being subject to historic preservation codes. This, combined with the availability of large publicly owned parcels, which considerably reduce the cost and effort of parcel consolidation, creates the ideal conditions for the development of a vibrant transitoriented Urban Hub. The Urban Hub station typology creates a mutually beneficial relationship

between high-capacity mass transit and density and mixture of activity. The transit service enable large numbers of people to affordably and sustainably access homes, jobs, and amenities. Conversely, the quantity and diversity of activities create demand for transit throughout the day, which in turn reduces the need for transit operations subsidies from the state government. As Northern Guadalajaraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Urban Hub, La Normal can play a pivotal role in shifting mobility behaviors, densifying commercial activity, and establishing a safe, enjoyable public realm. The core of large, publicly-owned parcels represents an opportunity to increase density in a strategic and sensitive way. An intelligent densification strategy would seek to rationalize the use of land and to use density as a way to encourage intensified economic and cultural activity where these can be best supported by transit. The area is subject to less restrictive planning regulations than the historic center of Guadalajara to the immediate South, so there is more potential for strategic density increases. The area contains a several important architectural and cultural assets that should be protected in any redevelopment scheme. These include the iconic curved building of the CUCSH, the large wall mural on the Escuela Normal de Jalisco, the Teatro Alarife MartĂn Casillas, and the high-performance sporting center CODE Jalisco. La Normal already has significant green space close by, as well as potential for the creation of significantly expanded and improved public realm. Parque Alcalde is located immediately southwest of Glorieta La Normal, and can be accessed via a public passageway through CUCSH. Meanwhile, the roundabout itself holds enormous potential to be reimagined as an iconic, people-centered space.

5.4.2 La Normal Development Vision and Plan Our vision for La Normal is focused on the potential provided by the Glorieta La Normal and the surrounding publicly-owned parcels to form the core of a vibrant Urban Hub.

Figure 39: Proposed site plan for La Normal

We envision the existing public institutions acting as anchors for new activity around the rotary. As far as possible, and while protecting architecturally and culturally valuable buildings, these institutions will be consolidated and relocated into a more compact arrangement, thereby freeing up publicly-owned land for development. Alternatively, an institution might choose to redevelop its building with more density and offer the additional capacity as office space to new commercial tenants. Density will be concentrated around the rotary, with substantial new space created for commercial and retail tenants. The development of new vertical housing will combine to create a vibrant, mixed-use neighborhood and 24/7 destination for the Guadalajaraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents. Away from the main Alcalde corridor, density will step down quickly as the urban fabric transitions into the surrounding residential neighborhoods. The La Normal district will be redeveloped with a critical focus on the experience of pedestrians and cyclists. It is critical that we strike a balance between land use densification and humancentric urban form that prioritizes the street-level experience. Finally, our vision seeks to maximize the value of existing public realm and green spaces, and create new spaces to draw people to the street and orient pedestrians emerging from the Line 3 station.

5.4.2.1 Development framework Our vision revolves around the following organizing elements: Open space and pedestrian network Our proposal introduces several measures to improve the street-level experience. With the station under La Normal, the district is exceptionally well connected to the rest of the city by both light rail and bus services. However locally, walking and biking will be the primary modes of transportation. Therefore, it is crucial that we create safe and comfortable environment for pedestrians and cyclists, which will not only encourage the use of these active modes, but also support transit use and reduce road congestion. Figure 40 illustrates a network of proposed pedestrian paths and dedicated bicycle infrastructure. The main and secondary paths provide a hierarchical network to give a sense of orientation for pedestrians. Active frontage in the form of retail frontage, display windows, or alfresco dining is necessary along these pedestrian paths in order to achieve a convenient and welcoming walking experience. Several pedestrian pass-throughs are highly encouraged on large parcels to increase connectivity while providing a vibrant public-private space. We also recognize the possibility to incorporate (formalized) street vendors as an important urban feature within these pedestrian paths. Finally, nodes can be introduced at various corners of the area as orientation features that connect multiple paths â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or simply as interesting surprises. A node might be an existing landmark, plaza, or distinctive building faĂ§ade that enriches the urban

experience within La Normal.

Figure 40: Proposed pedestrian network

Cars and parking Car traffic in the La Normal area must be reduced if the area is to achieve its potential as a vibrant, pedestrian-focused, transit-oriented district. We propose directing traffic away from the area to use alternative corridors nearby, such as Federalismo. However, we recognize the value of vehicle traffic and understand that it must be accommodated at some level. Therefore, we propose equipping several street corridors with integrated on-street parking, while encouraging shared parking facilities within private parcels (Figure 41). We also suggest that parcel entrances be accommodated in secondary streets in order to maintain active frontage and continuity on main corridors. An interesting alternative raised during our design process was to build a new subterranean parking structure underneath the Glorieta La Normal rotary. While this parking option would have excellent access to the Line 3 station, we believe that encouraging large-scale parking in the district would not contribute to our vision of a walkable, human-scale neighborhood. When people think of La Normal in the future, we want them to think of the vibrant public realm and welcoming streets, not of the convenient parking options.

Figure 41: Proposed traffic pattern and parking strategies

Development intensity Our proposal revolves around significantly increasing the density of development in the immediate vicinity of the rotary, with a steep gradient as distance from the rotary increases (Figure 42). This strategy is designed to establish the Glorieta La Normal as a powerful, anchoring monument, and to take advantage of the large, publicly-owned parcels that surround it to energize the redevelopment process, and maximize accessibility to Line 3. Public land ownership can be used as a bargaining chip to guide development in the desired direction and serve as proof of viability for the private sector. Additionally, it can be leveraged to attract developers and help offset first-mover penalties.

Figure 42: Proposed development intensity

We agree with the intention of Guadalajaraâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recently introduced planning regulations, which seek to promote density along main transit corridors, with density gradually decreasing as one moves further away. Transitional blocks around the main corridor will help to ensure a smooth transition from the vertical developments to the existing low-rise fabric around Santuario, Federalismo, and the residential area to the east (Figure 43). Since La Normal station is located close to Federalismo and Mezquitan stations (both classified as Neighborhood Stations in our typology), we also recognize several potential blocks that will play important role for future integration with these stations and their developments.

Figure 43: Density gradient from primary corridor to surrounding low-rise neighborhoods

Increasing residential density while promoting affordability

New mid- and high-rise residential development should be focused close to public spaces and adjacent to surrounding residential neighborhoods (

Figure 44). The aim should be to achieve a range of price levels, with units affordable to middleand lower- income families in addition to luxury apartments. According to our development viability analysis, explained in detail in Section 6 of this report, there are a number of alternative models through which it may be possible to develop housing at more accessible price ranges, while still maintaining a reasonable level of developer profit. In order to provide housing affordable to low-income families it may be necessary to explore innovative sources of subsidy.

Figure 44: Priority housing locations

In this framework, we propose introducing vertical housing along the main corridor, integrated in the new mixed-use development. Mid-rise housing should be developed within the outer precinct, helping to smooth the transition to the surrounding low-rise residential neighborhoods.

5.4.2.2 Key features of the New Normal Beyond our district-level development framework described above, we propose three specific design features that will contribute to La Normalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s success as an Urban Hub. Glorieta La Normal: a new icon for Guadalajara First, we propose redesigning Glorieta La Normal to establish a landmark and a symbol for the new era of integrated development in Guadalajara. Figure 45 illustrates a potential design for the roundabout. We believe this space has the potential to be segmented and programmed with a variety of low-intensity public activities. For example, it is possible for the space to accommodate street vendors, green space, art installations, an exhibition area, and a central amphitheater. Orientation and wayfinding will be central to this space, and the design should consider visual orientation to all directions, particularly when locating large trees or installations. To create connections and slow traffic, large pedestrian crosswalks should be installed and delineated with contrasting road surfaces. The road way should be narrowed to further reaffirm the prioritization of pedestrians.

Figure 45: Reimagining Glorieta La Normal

Vibrant, activated corridors The relationship between the building and the street is essential to a pleasant pedestrian experience. We propose using a change in elevation, a change in material, bike lanes, pedestrian sidewalks, and street furniture to create a transition zone between the street and the building (Figure 46). Solid parcel boundaries should be avoided as far as possible, as these interrupt this desired transition. The use of setbacks is crucial as an extension of the public realm and to integrate the sidewalk with indoor activities. The New Normalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s towers should be built upon podiums, which allow for active street frontage while concentrating density into the center of the block so as not to have an overbearing presence on the street.

Figure 46: Creating active corridors

New connections In order to break up the large blocks of La Normal and create connections with secondary corridors, we propose a series of pedestrian pass-throughs (Figure 47). These pass-throughs can be in the form of shared open spaces with intense retail activities or publicly-accessible indoor passageway. Where the parcel is privately owned, this concept requires an intricate public-private partnership scheme, but it promises a better built environment if it can be achieved. Private parcels are also encouraged to utilized spaces between buildings as green open spaces whenever possible. In order to avoid direct interactions between pedestrians and cars, we call for parking to be located behind low-rise buildings along secondary corridors.

Figure 47: Parcel pass-throughs to increase accessibility and focus economic activity

5.4.3 La Normal Development impacts We felt it crucial to test the impact of our proposed development density as measured by a number of important metrics. We examined the current layout of buildings in La Normalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s large blocks, and tested the maximum build-out form allowed in current zoning, based on to building coverage (COS) and floor area ratio (CUS + ICUS). Then we tested our desired densification strategy, which, as described in the previous section, seeks to increase density while promoting a desirable urban street experience.

Current density

Maximum allowed

Desirable

Building coverage: 0.21

Building coverage: 0.8

Building coverage: 0.54

FAR: 0.85

FAR: 8.4

FAR: 5.2

Figure 48: Modelled density scenarios

We input our desired density guidelines into a massing model to produce a 3D representation of the urban form these would produce at the district level if realized at La Normal (Figure 49).

Figure 49: Illustrative massing model for proposed development at La Normal

With the vision in mind, we used an iterative design procedure to coordinate between 3D builtout forms and implications for transit ridership. We arrived at a proposal with a total Gross Floor Area (GFA) of 2,737,125 square meters, which is a 101% increase from the current scenario. The breakdown of GFA across land use types are shown in Table 2. Table 2: Modeled gross floor area mix at desired development density

Total GFA GFA. Institutional (+ Services) GFA. Commercial (Office + Retail+ Services) GFA. Residential

2,737,125m2 73,962 m2

55%

1,156,006 m2

42%

1,505,967 m

With assumptions of 30 square meters/employee in offices, 35 square meters/person in residential buildings, and 40 square meters/employee in institutional uses, we estimated the number of residents and workers in both proposed and current scenarios, and applied our direct ridership model to estimate the increase in Line 3 ridership if our proposed scenario is fully built. Table 3 below shows the number of residents, workers and riders under the existing development and proposed development scenarios. The increased percentage of residents, workers and riders are 98%, 384%, 139%, respectively. The number of trips in AM peak hour will be 4,872. Combined peak hour trips of Santuario and La Normal stations will exceed 75% of

our estimated current Line 3 capacity, but the increased demand can be accommodated by moderate increase of capacity. Detailed explanation of ridership calculation, capacity estimation, and measures to increase capacity can be found in Appendix B. Table 3: Estimated increase in residents, jobs, and ridership under proposed development scenario

Existing Development

Proposed Development

Population Employment Projected Daily Boardings Additional Population Additional Employment Additional Daily Boardings Total Population Total Employment Total Daily Boardings

La Normal 16684 10761 9200 16347 41320 12800 33031 52081 22000

Based on our assumptions, the proposed scenario also saves 5,875 trips, reduces 2,024 hours spent in traffic per day and 6,238 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually.

6 Institutional & Cross-Cutting Strategies 6.1 Phase 1: Pre-Development 6.1.1 Mobility and Parking Strategies While governments and planners advocate a shift to transit-oriented development (TOD) for sustainable metropolitan growth, the reality observed during implementation of TOD is drastically different. Citizens are unwilling to shift to mass transit due to perceptions of it being unsafe and uncomfortable. Regions such as the US and Latin America show strong cultural biases towards car ownership, often regarding a personal car as a token of higher income and societal status, aka “car pride”. Incentivizing people to use and, more importantly, enjoy mass transit is crucial for a successful implementation of TOD. We propose a comprehensive framework with integrated components related to transit-oriented mobility incentives that aims to increase the usage and effectiveness of Line 3. Parking Management Strategies Parking requirements Managing the amount of parking associated with new development is an effective way to allow increased density and to support transit. These policies focus on reducing or limiting the amount of parking that is required and encourage efficient use of the parking. Examples of this approach which are relevant to the La Normal neighborhood include: ● Reduced parking requirements ● TOD friendly parking requirements ● Parking maximums ● Shared parking Shared parking Out of the multiple examples listed above, we believe that shared parking is the most appropriate strategy for the study area. Shared parking reductions can be easily calculated once the actual land use types are known. There are numerous advantages of shared parking: ● Leverages off-setting peak parking accumulation patterns ● Takes advantage of multiple trips to a single destination ● Less space required for parking ● More space open for development or dedicated to other uses ● Construction of fewer parking spaces ● Decrease in paved surfaces, potentially reducing the impact of the urban heat island effect Parking pricing Pricing has long been recognized as the most powerful parking management tool. Effective pricing policies can be used to discourage commuter parking in key locations and increase customer access to convenient short-term parking supplies. Revenues from parking can be used to fund transit supportive parking and transportation improvements. A broad range of pricing policies are available for application in this neighborhood:

● ● ● ● ●

On-street parking pricing Variable rate parking pricing Coordinated on-street and off-street pricing Unbundled parking Parking cash-out

Parking financing Developers aiming to reduce parking requirements and providing lower than one parking spot per housing unit should be provided financial incentives as encouragement. The onus is on the government to incentivize developers to drive a change in the housing typology in and around La Normal and set a precedent for the city of Guadalajara and, perhaps, even the state of Jalisco. There are many tools and methods used to finance the development of parking and parking-related transportation improvements, such as: ● In-lieu fees ● Risk funds ● Parking occupancy tax ● Parking tax by space ● Tax exemptions and variable tax rates ● Parking districts ● Public-private partnerships Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) A longer-term initiative that the city must encourage and embrace is the provision of Mobility-asa-Service (MaaS). We would like to facilitate a shift away from personally owned modes of transportation and towards mobility solutions that are consumed as a service. This can be enabled by combining transportation services from public and private transportation providers through a unified gateway that creates and manages the trip, which users can pay for with a single account. Users can pay per trip or a monthly fee for a limited distance. The key concept behind MaaS is to offer travelers mobility solutions based on their travel needs. MaaS is not limited to individual mobility; the approach can be applied to movement of goods as well (particularly in urban areas). This can be an innovative approach towards movement of freight vehicles in Centro Historico, Guadalajara. This shift is fueled by a myriad of innovative new mobility service providers such as ride-sharing and e-hailing services, as evidenced by the growing popularity of Uber in Guadalajara. Bikesharing programs like Mibici are also expected to play an important role. Car-sharing services (such as Zipcar in the US or Hertz in Europe) as well as on-demand “pop-up” bus services (which can be used as feeders to the LRT or to alleviate peak hour traffic) should be incorporated as well. Finally, Guadalajara must plan for the not-so-distant future by adequately anticipating self-driving cars, which put in question the economic benefit of owning a personal car over using on-demand car services, which are widely expected to become significantly more affordable when cars can drive autonomously. This shift is further enabled by improvements in the integration of multiple modes of transport into seamless trip chains, with bookings and payments managed collectively for all legs of the trip. Between the multiple modes, trips, and payments, data is gathered and used to help people’s journeys become more efficient. MaaS has many benefits that can improve ridership habits, transit network efficiency, and societies that adopt MaaS as a viable means of transportation. MaaS would decrease costs to the user, improve utilization of MaaS transit

providers, reduce city congestion as more users adopt MaaS as a main source of transit, and reduce emissions as more users rely on public transit components or electric, autonomous vehicles in a MaaS network. Employee programs Getting to work is one of the primary reasons that necessitate transportation. Consequently, employers can encourage public transportation use among employees through a variety of measures. La Normal presents a unique opportunity to push employers to foster transportation use among employees because it is transit-rich with both a light rail stop and bus depot. Some possible methods for incentivizing transit use: ● Subsidized monthly passes for employees ● Automatic opt-in for subsidized transit passes ● Discontinue subsidized employee parking ● City subsidy to reduce fares for employees in La Normal ● Provide reimbursement for transit and bike related expenses Transportation Management Plans Cities in the US such as Alexandria, Virginia have required new businesses and developments above a certain size to provide Transportation Management Plans. These plans force developers to consider the impact that their developments will have on traffic in the area through a transportation study. These developments are then required to pay an annual fee into a fund either at the city level or at the development level that can then be drawn on to discourage the use of single occupancy vehicles including shuttle service to transit hubs, transit subsidies, and marketing for these services. While Alexandria is far more suburban than the context of La Normal, requiring developers to consider the impacts of their development on traffic may push creative thinking on reducing car dependency at the building scale. Advertising Campaign Educating the public about the new rail system and improvements to the bus infrastructure will be critical to increasing ridership in the La Normal area. While those dependent on the systems will be well aware of changes due to necessity, the introduction of Line 3 presents an opportunity to rebrand the metro and bus system as an alternative to the traffic of Guadalajara. Those individuals who were previously reluctant to use public transportation may be induced to start using it thanks to its new reach. There are several potential efforts that could be undertaken by the city: ● Mailing out free transit vouchers to car owners. Modeled on a two-year program in Seattle that mailed out transit vouchers for eight rides to all car owning households to encourage new riders. ● A campaign that explains the reach of the new system and advertises its time benefits over the drive may help bring in new riders. ● Smartphones and mobile advertising present a unique opportunity to reach out to individuals who are geographically close to the new line. ● Social media campaign to show the many people who proudly use the new Line 3 and other forms of public transportation. ● Digital advertising and potentially free rides geared towards specific younger demographics who may be more open to trying public transit ● Joint advertising campaign with local businesses near the transit stop to highlight the ease of access with Line 3

6.1.2 Development Viability Analysis The fundamental economics of our visions for development at La Normal and Santuario are clearly critical in determining their viability. We conducted an analysis to better understand some of the key factors that will influence what is possible financially. Our analysis is highly simplified and speculative, so should only be taken as a loose guide to how investors might view the development opportunities associated with our proposed vision for the area. Our model assumptions are based on conversations with several developers active in Guadalajara. As far as possible we base our assumptions on their advice, but to some extent the model of development we are recommending is unprecedented in the region and so must rely on a degree of guesswork. Table 4 lists the primary assumptions upon which we built three pro forma models for residential developments of the type that we envisage around the La Normal station. We have provided these models as an Excel appendix to this report. Models 2 and 3 may also have relevance for some potential development in Santuario, though development at this scale will not be typical in that area. The models assess alternative approaches for providing units at prices affordable to Guadalajara’s middle class and lower income families while ensuring financial viability for developers. Model 1: ‘Internal cross-subsidy’ 20-floor building with a mixture of larger units targeted at the upper middle class/luxury market, and used to cross-subsidize smaller units targeted at lower income families. Model 2: ‘Full middle income’ 12-floor building with a mix of unit sizes targeted at the middle-income market. Model 3: ‘Subsidized low income’ 12-floor building with larger units targeted at the middle-income market and smaller units targeted at lower income families. This model requires an external subsidy for each smaller unit to make the development viable. Table 4: Base assumptions for pro forma analysis

Parameter

Base Assumption Model 1: Internal crosssubsidy

Parcel size Land price per m2 Parcel

Model 2: Full middle-income

Model 3: Subsidized lowincome

Source

3000m2 $9,000 mxn

Estimated based on discussions with local developers

70%

Author estimate

coverage Floors Construction cost per m2

20 $17,000 mxn

Soft costs (% of construction costs) Efficiency factor per floor Unit sizes Unit prices

Number of units

45 m2 (20%)/65 m2 (80%) $0.8 million/$2.4 million mxn 150/417 (567 total)

Parking spaces per unit Construction cost per parking space Retail share (% gross square meters) Retail rents (monthly) Inflation Development timeline

12 $12,000 mxn

Estimated based on discussions with local developers

25%

Estimated based on discussions with local developers

85%

Standard assumption for common space within multi-unit buildings

50 m2 (40%)/60 m2 (60%) $1.2 million/$1.5 million mxn

$0.6 million/$1.5 million mxn

Local developers

157/196 (393 total)

0.5

Local developers

$125,000 mxn

Local consultancy firm

Equivalent to groundfloor retail only

$120 mxn per m2

Local consultancy firm

OECD

Permitting etc.: 1 year; Construction: 2 years; Sales period: 2 years

Local developers. Timeline may vary considerably by project.

Models 1 and 2 both achieve the 15% return that we heard from developers was a reasonable minimum expectation for investment (see Table 5). Model 3 relies on a subsidy of $600,000 pesos for each smaller unit to reach viability. Our model assumes no borrowing to finance construction. In reality, most developers would take on a construction loan, which would increase the expected return on their equity, but also increase the risk of the investment proportionately. Table 5: Development budget and expected return

Development budget (all figures in mxn)

Model 1: Internal cross-subsidy

Model 2: Full middle income

Model 3: Subsidized low income

Costs Land purchase price

($27,000,000)

Construction costs

($746,250,000)

($324,462,500)

Soft costs

($186,562,500)

($81,115,625)

($22,387,500)

($9,733,875)

($982,200,000)

($442,312,000)

Permits, licenses etc Total development costs Income Residential sales

$1,285,962,523

Annual retail rental income upon sale (year 5)

$553,487,081

$445,405,649

$3,063,185

5-year IRR

15.50%

Subsidy required per unit to reach 15% IRR

15.00

N/A

4.75% $600,000

Impacts on return We conducted a sensitivity analysis on our assumptions to determine which have the most critical impact on financial viability. Returns are most sensitive to the construction cost per square meter and the selling price per residential unit. Table 6 displays the impact of variations in some of our most critical base assumptions for Model 1. Table 6: Analysis of IRR sensitivity to key inputs

Assumption

-10%

Base -5% assumption +5%

+10%

Land price per m2

15.7%

15.6%

15.5%

15.4%

15.3%

Construction costs

21.0%

18.2%

15.5%

13.0%

10.7%

Sales prices

10.0%

12.8%

15.5%

18.2%

20.8%

Number of floors

15.3%

15.4%

15.5%

15.6%

15.7%

Parking spaces per unit 15.8%

15.6%

15.5%

15.4%

15.3%

Construction costs are a critical factor when considering dense, vertical development. Costs grow substantially with increased building height because of the need for expensive concrete and steel structures and more complicated engineering work. We assumed construction costs of $17,000 pesos per square meter for a 20-floor building based on advice from a Guadalajarabased developer that construction costs for 10-to-12-floor buildings are approximately $12,000 pesos per square meter. The expected return is highly sensitive to this assumption, as the table above illustrates. As would be expected, sales prices have a very strong impact on returns. Our base assumptions for Model 1 combine larger units at a price out of the range of most middle-income families, combined with compact units at a price that should be affordable for many lower middle income families. If the developer wanted instead to target the luxury market, then they could increase prices and achieve substantially higher returns. Returns are relatively less sensitive to land price per square meter, because at high density the land price represents a lower proportion of development costs than it would with a shorter building and the cheaper associated construction costs. The parking space-per-unit ratio has a smaller but still important impact on expected return, because it is expensive to construct the underground parking required for dense, high-rise developments. There is a 5.1% spread between the expected return with no parking spaces and that with one parking space per residential unit. Conclusions arising from financial analysis: â&#x20AC;˘ Shorter (e.g. 10-12 story) buildings may be more appropriate for at least the first stage of development around La Normal. These have substantially lower construction costs per square meter than taller buildings and therefore allow more flexibility for achieving a viable return. It may also be possible to sell these units at prices accessible to middle income families. â&#x20AC;˘ Housing affordable to lower income families is unlikely to be feasible directly adjacent to La Normal without subsidy, either from an external source or from increasing the prices of the other units in the building. If the City of Guadalajara is motivated to promote a truly mixed income residential community in La Normal then it might explore how TOD can generate alternative sources for subsidizing low-income units. For instance, high ridership of Line 3 will reduce the level of subsidy required per trip. It may be possible to divert some of these savings towards subsidizing affordable housing close to Line 3 stations. â&#x20AC;˘ An alternative, or complementary, approach to subsidized housing may be to identify parcels further removed from the La Normal itself but within easy commute by bike or

â&#x20AC;˘

bus, where lower land prices would allow for construction of shorter (e.g. four-to-five floor) mid-rise housing targeted at lower income brackets. Given the sensitivity of expected returns to the assumptions listed above, it is clear that private developers will need considerable assurance if they are to invest on the scale we think is required. Additional steps by public agencies to reduce the other risks associated with development, such as those relating to regulations, land acquisition, and administrative delay, would help to make private development more viable. Of course, there is a balance to be struck between spurring private investment and maintaining public benefits.

6.1.3 Land Acquisition and Assembly Strategies 6.1.3.1 Public Sector Leads in Land Assembly The government of Jalisco can address the lack of parcels large enough for vertical housing through an experimental effort to assume the burden of bargaining with current landowners for the right to purchase and develop their land. After combining enough neighboring parcels to implement a viable vertical housing development, the government can sell the parcels as a package to a developer on the condition that a substantial portion of units be offered at a level affordable to middle-income households. Conversations with several real estate industry leaders in Guadalajara revealed a strong demand for a centralized development authority empowered to execute the transactions described above. Establishing a strong, reliable, and inexpensive pipeline for development projects would reduce prevailing anxieties about delivering the types of housing Line 3's completion was meant to encourage. Given the expenses and risks associated with outright purchase of land, the development authority could instead employ a strategy of negotiating options to purchase land from existing landowners, executing these options only in the event that a developer is found.

6.1.3.2 Chain of Title Clearing and Tenure Formalization We conducted research to understand the main reasons for the high vacancy rates and the lack of interest by developers in the Santuario area. Based on conversations with local shop owners, developers and city officials, we believe that the informal and erratic ownership patterns that exist for most buildings is a major impediment to the redevelopment of the area. Our informants estimate that about half of the existing buildings in the area have legal chain-oftitle problems as well as financial liabilities such as liens and unpaid taxes. There appear to be two main reasons for the uncertain ownership status of the buildings in our study area. First, the cost of properly recording inheritance-based deed transfers is expensive and time consuming. Currently, one has to pay about 6% of a propertyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s value in taxes and fees to claim legal ownership of a given property in the area.5 Because of the high cost of transferring ownership, residents may have been discouraged from pursuing a legal claim of the properties they have inherited. A further reason for the uncertain ownership status of most buildings is that the common practice for people to occupy abandoned properties and live in them for years without proper proof of ownership.

Alejandro Serratos, Director Tailer Mexico

To secure ownership and tenure for current residents and businesses, we suggest two key protections and process changes that will enable current occupants to invest in their own buildings with confidence. These recommendations are designed to strengthen the path to ownership for lower income individuals. Regardless of the end goal, you must start by establishing a strong foundation of secure ownership and safe investment. Lowering the Cost of Recording Inheritance-based Deed Transfers The current process of transferring ownership from an inheritance is not only cumbersome, but has also not been yielding much monetary gain to the city or state because property owners don’t adhere to it. We suggest that the city instead offer need-based exemption from the transfer fees and dedicate increased staff to the efficient management of this process. Furthermore, it may be worthwhile for the city to offer low-cost notary and legal representation in order to undercut the excessive charges that private notaries and legal representatives are currently able to get away with. Program of Systematic Rectification of Historic Property Chains-of-Title The City of Guadalajara has a vested interest in every potential redevelopment site having a clean chain of title and is uniquely well positioned to facilitate the systematic rectification of these ownership disputes, liens and informal arrangements. Using unpaid taxes and nonconformity with recording requirements, the city can bring properties into compliance in a context-sensitive and proactive way. Furthermore, this systematic rectification program does not need to have a punitive tone – the city can address these problems through community events, incentives and in-person surveying. By increasing personal contact between current Santuario stakeholders and the relevant local government staff the city has the opportunity to build pride, identity and agency among the existing users of Santuario’s neighborhood spaces before new development picks up pace. Some examples of how this program could look and feel: An outdoor concert or market at Refugio park where the city has a booth to offer free exterior paint in approved historic colors to anyone who can prove legal title to a parcel near Santuario station A door-to-door walking tour with a few city staffers talking to whoever answers the door and finding out their relationship to the property – own, rent, squat etc. – and providing them the contact info and paperwork they will need to formalize their relationship to the property. Competitions to get a free historic restoration block-party with a pre-condition that all properties on the block must be legally free and clear. The city would then work behind the scenes to prepare all the approvals so that on the agreed-upon day a team of historic restoration specialists can comes and offer on-site workshops and hand out approved materials to do supervised exterior restorations.

6.1.3.3 Land Banking to Decrease the High Cost of Land + Facilitate Site Assembly According to an informant from the Vision Marketing Real Estate Firm, 15-20% of the development cost of commercial projects goes towards acquiring land. This high cost is likely to increase further with the opening of Line 3. Thus, the cost of land, which is estimated around 5,000 pesos per square meters on average in the historic downtown area limits the area’s ability to attract investment.6 The City of Guadalajara might explore strategies for allaying land prices increases while simultaneously building a portfolio of strategic land ready for development. 6

Vision Marketing Real Estate Firm

Many US cities that have experienced widespread divestment from their historic cores have developed variants on a â&#x20AC;&#x153;Land Bankâ&#x20AC;? model to facilitate contextually appropriate redevelopment of problem properties. Land Banks are typically a quasi-public agency that systematically acquires vacant, abandoned and deteriorated properties through a mix of outright purchase and legal repossession tools that include nuisance abatement, tax foreclosure and eminent domain in the most severe cases. A core goal of all Land Banks like this is to use public-sector tools to clean the chain of title so that the property is ready for redevelopment rather than stuck in limbo due to the unresolved financial and legal disputes that tend to bog down historic properties in areas without a strong market. Case Study: Land Banking in Cleveland, Ohio One of the earliest and most impactful examples of this type of institution is the Cleveland area Cuyahoga County Land Reutilization Corporation (CCLRC), commonly known as the Cuyahoga Land Bank. The mission of the Cuyahoga Land Bank is to strategically acquire properties, return them to productive use, reduce blight, increase property values, support community goals and improve the quality of life for county residents. Cuyahoga County developed this quasi-public agency when it found itself at the epicenter of the nationwide mortgage foreclosure crisis starting in 2006. The Cuyahoga Land Bank has the ability to acquire vacant and abandoned foreclosed properties from a variety of sources, including those held by banks as well as real estate lost to tax foreclosure and donated properties. The primary funding comes from the accumulation of penalties and interest on collected delinquent real estate taxes and assessments. Secondary funding comes from sale of acquired properties to qualified rehabbers and housing developers.7 Case Study: Using Land Banking to Fund Affordable Housing in Denver, Colorado Denver has expanded its light rail system rapidly over the past two decades. It boasts 53 stations and 140 km of track. It has complemented this rapid growth with three forward thinking policies to mitigate the negative impacts that rail can have upon housing affordability. A per square foot fee charged to all residential and commercial development to fund Affordable Housing Trust Fund. The Urban Land Conservancy uses those funds to assemble parcels and then leverages other sources to develop into affordable housing. If the Land Bank approach to redevelopment is too resource intensive for the City of Guadalajara to entertain at this point, a scaled-back version of this could look more like a publicsector match-making entity that is responsible for consolidating reliable information, distributing that information and securing pre-negotiated purchase prices on parcels that contribute to a strategic site assembly.

www.cuyahogalandbank.org/assembly.php

6.1.4 La Normal Development Corporation A focused institution is required in order to realize La Normal’s potential as a successful urban hub. We propose the creation of La Normal Development Corporation (LNDC), a public planning and development agency that will serve as a steward of growth for the area. The LNDC will bring together the various public landowners in La Normal to develop an integrated plan for the area and oversee the development process. Structure The LNDC would be governed by a Board, which should be chaired by an established and elected official in the City of Guadalajara. This official would oversee the appointment of all other board members. The Board should include leaders from the community, local businesses, land owners, developers, and transportation specialists. Responsibilities Strategic Visioning The LNDC will act as a local planning authority in both the creation of a strategic master plan for the area, the selection of high opportunity sites for development, and the adoption of urban design guidelines (which we outline below). By setting up periodic opportunities to receive stakeholder input, the LNDC could shape these documents into a more inclusive vision for the La Normal community. Land Assembly and Development The LNDC will have a critical role in ensuring strategic and efficient use of the large areas of publicly-owned land at La Normal. Ideally, the various public landowners would transfer ownership of these lots to the LNDC. It would then be the LNDC’s responsibility to lead the process of relocating existing institutional uses within the area and priming land for development. It is recommended that, as landowner, the LNDC parcel off select lots and put up them up for purchase, coordinating a competitive bidding process among local developers. It is essential that the LNDC review applications against its adopted urban design guidelines. Community Consultation and Engagement The LNDC must establish itself as an ally of the community before, during, and after the development process. In the short term, the LNDC should begin a marketing and educational campaign to raise awareness about the future changes for the La Normal area, as a means for notifying the public of intended development as well as generating excitement and encouraging participation. This should be followed by community meetings in which the LNDC begins to solicit input on what residents and stakeholders see as the neighborhood’s greatest strengths and challenges. This input would inform a strategic master plan for the neighborhood, which should be presented to the public for feedback before formal adoption. The LNDC should prioritize transparency with the public and create an appropriate communication outlet for residents to request and receive information.

Case Study: Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation, London On the eve of the 2012 Olympic Games, the city of London passed legislation in 2011 which granted the Mayor of London to right to designate and establish Mayoral Development Corporations. To date, this act has been utilized twice: to set up the London Olympic Park Legacy Development Corporation in 2012 and the Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation in 2015. Created to capitalize on the investments in new rail infrastructure in West London, the Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation offers a valuable precedent to La Normal. mission of the OPDC is to transform one of Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most inaccessible areas into a well-connected, world class transport interchange and to provide new housing and commercial development, surrounded by sustainable and thriving neighborhoods and valued amenity space. OPDC primarily acts as a local planning authority, with responsibilities including preparing and planning development plans, making decisions on planning applications, and giving guidance and approval to developers. In 2016, when the government transferred 97 hectares of publicly owned land to OPDC, the Corporation also became the lead landowner. The OPDC consists of a Board which includes industry and community leaders in the neighborhood, and partners closely with the Greater London Authority and Transport for London. The Old Oak and Park Royal area is an example of transit-oriented largescale regeneration, very similar to what we imagine La Normal has the potential to be. The establishment of a development corporations ensures that these new neighborhoods realize their potential.

6.1.5 Opening Up the Use of Second Floor Spaces As evidenced in the pilot study we conducted, there are many underutilized second floor areas in the Santuario area. By activating these spaces, the area could be densified and activated without large scale building development. However, as previously mentioned the challenge in Santuario is that there is no demand for the development of such spaces; it is not economically viable. Building owners do not have a way to successfully monetize these spaces, which is evidenced by the use of the second floors as warehouses or just left vacant. If and when the Santuario area responds to the TOD interventions, the second-floor areas may become more desirable. Guadalajara could incentivize development by offering low-interest loans for the renovation of the second floor to a living spaces or offices, or tax credits for similar improvements. Another potential method of encouraging development would be to subsidize second floor development by challenging owners to create business models that work in nontraditional second floor spaces. This could lead to a new culture of compact retail. Pairing incentives for development are a few potential ideas to discourage vacancies and warehousing. The city could investigate taxing storage and warehousing within the catchment area of Santuario or along Alcalde and other major corridors. This may or may not be feasible because of the challenge the city may face in regulating such a penalty. However, the underlying idea would be to tax building owners until the market value of square footage makes

warehousing too costly. The city should have a vested interest in increasing the use of such spaces as it will be an indicator of the success of Line 3. Once the second-floor areas begin to be developed, then perhaps, Santuario will be identified as a successful TOD case study. As the second-floor areas in Santuario are developed and utilized, then the city may need to be prepared on how to assist businesses with potential storage solutions. Cities with similar small vendors markets such as Mongkok, Hong Kong, have restructured the supply chain to improve the flow and utilization of the physical space when storage becomes harder to come by. Some of the changes implemented in Mongkok included, daily deliveries which eliminate the need for storage space; dense, compact design of stores (similar to Guadalajara); and shared inventory by similar vendors. Shared inventory could be expanded to shared warehousing, which supports the development of more active uses such as housing, offices, or additional retail. The city of Guadalajara could enable a retailer inventory pooling governance. The city, or an NGO should facilitate small businesses, helping build trust between retailers to an extent that a share inventory space is feasible. The city could even identify potential “public” warehousing spaces, which could be managed by the NGO.

6.2 Phase 2: Development 6.2.1 Easing Design Review Process for Infill Development To address the transaction costs associated with lengthy and arduous approvals at the local state and national level, the city can develop two design typology tracks to streamline the process. Rather than having a comprehensive design guideline that would add another layer of bureaucracy to an already burdensome process, this would effectively offer a shortcut to accelerate approvals for developer as long as they conform to the designs specified in one of the two template infill typologies. A second opportunity along the same lines is to add a series of pre-approved “variances” from the building code such as increased windows for a retail façade, the addition of a garage door to an existing façade, or adding an additional floor to the back of a small lot. Case Study: Infill in Cleveland, Ohio The Ohio City Knez Homes Infill program in Cleveland, Ohio which was developed by a non-profit community development organization in collaboration with the City Land Bank, a large for-profit developer and a local architecture firm familiar with the context.8 Previously, landowners and new buyers were required to maneuver through an overwhelming list of required steps before building could commence: an application process, proof of financing, design reviews, vetting by City Council representatives, and public hearings on zoning variances. Now, homebuyers can choose from three façades and floor plans that have already been reviewed and pre-approved by Cleveland City Hall. Case Study: Facilitating Quick Design Approvals in Massachusetts

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2016/03/ohio_city_knez_homes_team_up_t.html (Accessed Dec, 2017)

The Boston Planning and Development Agency has prepared a tool that is designed to offer speedy approval for these frequent, minor and acceptable deviations from historic form often pursued by owneroccupants.9 This document includes expected timelines, key contacts, and understandable submission requirements, making it an easy and approachable process for homeowners.

6.2.2 Historic Preservation as a Financing Source Investigate a Public-Private Partnership to Rehabilitate the Historic Downtown and Santuario: One way for preserving the historic character of Santuario is to encourage investment in renovating the dismal buildings in the area and in the Historic Downtown adjacent to it. This is important because although these areas have the character to pull in foot traffic, increasing use of transit and supporting a higher level of density are not being utilized to their full extent. Case Study: Funding Historic Renovations in Quito In Quito, the Empresa del Centro Historico helped to rehabilitate residential buildings at costs and on terms accessible to the low-income families who rent and occupy these structures. The program was executed with multilateral financing and technical assistance from a slum rehabilitation NGO. The financing was recovered from the beneficiary's own savings and from mortgages and subsidies, the latter provided by the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing. Housing units were delivered to beneficiaries under joint ownerships and mortgaged in favor of the bank that granted the loans. Such partnerships can also be extended towards improving investment in commercial developments and market rate housing. Following the precedent set by Quito, Ecuadorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s La Ronda redevelopment, Santuario (and potentially the Catedral area) should investigate the feasibility of initiating a partnership between the municipality and private investors. This case study acknowledges that in order to preserve the character of an area, investment should be made not just in its physical aspects, but also in the people who currently occupy it and contribute to its charm. It should be noted that a main component of the partnerships should be a coordinated approach by the municipality that eases the currently cumbersome process for instigating renovation projects and guides investors through it in an efficient manner. Historic Preservation Tax Credit The Historic Preservation tax credit is a common state-level incentive program in the United States that is used to help property owners invest in historic buildings in need of renovation. A similar program could be implemented in Guadalajara to trigger a revitalization of historic areas, such as Santuario. Case Study: Historic Preservation Tax Credit in Ohio The Ohio Historic Preservation Tax Credit Program provides a state tax credit up to 25 percent of qualified rehabilitation expenditures incurred during a rehabilitation projects. In practice, developers often secure the tax credit and then sell that tax credit off to investors who provide up-front 9

http://www.bostonplans.org/getattachment/9b57370e-5a54-4d8d-b275-b93e1d7d42e1 (Accessed Dec, 2017)

capital in exchange for the future tax dividends. This makes it easier for developers to attract cheap capital for historic renovation projects, bringing the total cost of the project down. Financial Investment Tools Tailored for Historic Redevelopment Securing financing for development can be challenging especially when taking a risk and rehabilitating a historic property in a district that does not yet have a well-established market with consistent and predictable demand for space. In order to facilitate investment, it may be worthwhile to set up publicly backed financing tools that can lower the cost of capital for the smaller developers that may be interested in Santuarioâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s unique intimate scale building stock. Case Study: Tax Credit and Low-Interest Loans in the United States In the US, the Historic Preservation Tax Credit and the Landmark LowInterest Loan Program are used as financing tools and also double as methods to enforce inspections and enforcement. In order to access the financing a developer has to agree to meet the desired standard of renovation, use approved materials, and work with licensed contractors. This could also have a retroactive quality â&#x20AC;&#x201C; for instance, you could offer a tax break to any property owner that has maintained a historic building in good condition, with an assumption that the owner had previously invested in the property which benefited the public image and feel of the area. More recommendations for how to harmonize historic protection policy and TOD zoning policies to (a) yield rapid widespread investment in historically appropriate densification, (b) cultivate increased ownership and agency for those that currently use the historic district most, (c) cultivate an expanded market to fill new construction in the historic center, and (d) increase upper floor usage

6.2.3 Requiring Affordable Housing Development through Inclusionary Zoning In lieu of payments to the city for the incremental density offered through ICUS, developers could elect instead to build onsite affordable apartments to be offered for sale at a price between $500k and $1M to eligible income-restricted households. This scheme, similar to the Ourtorga Onerosa do Direito de Construir implemented in Sao Paolo, Brazil, could prove attractive to developers who could receive revenue from potential buyers during the pre-leasing process and incur modest incremental expense during the construction of the process rather than the ICUS system in which payment is made to the city before construction can happen. Developers would be incentivized to participate given the faster absorption rate they could anticipate on discounted apartments. Case Study: FAR Development Rights in Sao Paolo Ourtorga Onerosa do Direito de Construir is a program that was implemented in Sao Paolo, Brazil. Between 2002 and 2004, the city of Sao Paolo implemented a standardization in allowable FAR, utilizing 1.0 in most parts of the city as a baseline FAR (akin to CUS) and 4.0 in many areas as a max FAR. As recently as 2009, the system was able to generate $50 million USD in payments for development rights above the baseline. The system has succeeded due to two factors. First, there was significant growth in the real estate market after implementation. Second, during the initial FAR

readjustments in 2002-4, properties that had FAR reduced did not see development rights culled to the point where landowners were compelled to take any legal action. Consistent with the requirements of other inclusionary zoning programs such as the policy implemented in New York, protections could be included to make sure discounted apartments are, within reason, equal to the apartments being offered for full price. Such protections could include making sure discounted apartments are distributed equally throughout building floors and do not require entrances separate to those of market-rate tenants. Additionally, price speculation on discounted apartments could be avoided through restricting resale such that apartments can only appreciate at a set rate (e.g. 6% per annum). Case Study: Ensuring Quality of Affordable Housing in New York, NY In New York, a law called the Limited Profit Housing Companies Act of 1955 created a structure in which for-sale apartments could benefit from public subsidy provided that the resale prices did not exceed a 6% year-onyear return, thus limiting the potential for speculation.

6.3 Phase 3: Post-Development: 6.3.1 Strategy for attracting new commercial and retail tenants Secure Anchor Tenancy An anchor tenant is typically what draws in the crowds to a shopping center and those crowds filter down to smaller nearby tenants. Accordingly, both the developer and the city should be prepared to give large discounts and incentives to that large retailer who will also be taking on substantial risk as the first mover. Due to the scale of proposed retail and lack of retail currently it will be critical to view the anchor from the perspective of the entire neighborhood and not just a single development. Anchor tenants may require especially favorable terms on Tenant Improvements and below market rent, but they will in turn serve to activate the area and jumpstart retail in the neighborhood, not to mention the jobs and tax revenue that anchor tenants can generate. A large grocer would be a strong pick as it will serve the needs of both the new residents and the influx of rail and bus passengers. Provide incentives to new smaller retailers Attracting new retail is critical to the success of La Normal. The increased population density in the area will be a major potential selling point to retailers. Additionally, the enormous amount of foot traffic originating from both Line 3 and the bus depot will provide a continuous stream of potential customers to the area. However, the unproven nature of large scale new development in this area presents risks for retailers. Strategies to induce retailers to come to La Normal: â&#x20AC;˘ Termination rights that allow smaller retailers to end leases if their sales do not hit a certain threshold by a certain year. While owners may be reluctant to offer these, incentives from the city (below) may make it more reasonable. â&#x20AC;˘ Co-tenancy agreements to allow tenants to modify or terminate leases if the anchor tenant for the neighborhood goes out of business. By allowing retailers to extend cotenancy agreements beyond just their development and to an anchor tenant nearby it may reduce their exposure to the risk of the loss of that anchor store.

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Tenant improvement allowance that exceeds market rate levels in order to encourage first movers and to encourage them to create storefronts uniquely suited to the La Normal area.

Incentives from the City Unfortunately, introducing light rail into the community may not be sufficient to attract to retailers to the La Normal area. The city should be ready to participate in the effort to attract new retailers by providing friendly terms to developers and property owners. • Reduced property taxes for the properties that contain anchor tenants in recognition of the outsize impact anchor tenants have on the success of La Normal. • Accelerated permitting for properties located within the La Normal area to make the development process run more quickly and meet the stringent timelines of national retailers. • Provide direct subsidy to a grocery store to incentivize them to come into the neighborhood in exchange for commitments to stay there for a specific period of time.

6.3.2 Preserving and existing businesses and equipping them for change There are two non-profits that are currently operating in Mexico City (Tenoli and Tecno Tienda) that work with small vendors and store owners to introduce them to technology solutions to help their current business and to improve their future prospects. Tenoli is a small start-up that began with funding from a crowd-sourced campaign. While crowdsourcing was successful for this firm, more reliable funding revenue would provide a better starting base for Guadalajara. Tecno Tienda is a second non-profit in Mexico City, offering similar training and technology, and this start-up if funded by Coca-Cola. The interest of the private market in small business training has developed because of the large scale of small businesses in Mexico City. Much like Guadalajara, small businesses vastly outnumber the chains and larger establishments. Because small business owners operate such tiny shops, sometimes referred to as nanostores, and have such little experience, the owners often need to pay for supplies in cash. In aggregate, this amounts to a large proportion of liquid retailers to a corporation such as Coca-Cola. When small retailers succeed, their revenue increases, leading to the interest of corporations such as Coca-Cola to fund small business training. In Mexico City, the Secretariat of Science, Technology and Innovation promotes the project and the technology and training are provided to owners at no cost. This includes point of sale terminals, inventory systems and bar codes, and a microcredit of ~6,000 pesos. Mexico City believes that with this initiative stores could increase up to 70% the flow of their customers and 63% their sales – which strengthens the stores and increases revenues to the private funders. If Guadalajara can find an appropriate corporate partner to fund small business training, then the commercial core will improve and strengthen. Much like the commercial businesses along Line 3, businesses in Saint Paul, Minnesota were disrupted by the construction of the Central Corridor Light Rail project. An effort led by the Neighborhood Development Center helped strengthen existing small and immigrant businesses by providing no- or low-cost small business support services. This intervention was funded by pooling money from multiple sources in order to bring physical improvements and revitalization of commercial properties along University Avenue before,

during, and after the light rail opened. The city was able tap into municipal and statewide funds to provide monetary and marketing support for small businesses to survive the development stage and stay competitive post construction. Additional support included one-on-one marketing and communications consulting, with an emphasis on customized small business products and marketing assistance and façade improvement grants. Loans for businesses to support expansion and assist business owners to own their buildings were established to help protect small retailers from forced eviction due to gentrification.

6.3.3 Anti-displacement strategies The recommendations that this report makes will definitely increase the density of the Santuario Station area and aims to make it a more vibrant and active hub. However, the recommendations of increasing density and encouraging the redevelopment of the area will surely result in the potential displacement of many who reside in it. As mentioned before in this report, a significant number of the occupants of the Santuario area have murky tenure status, which will make them vulnerable to forced evictions in the case of land expropriation. In order to align with the TOD standards and the Guadalajara government’s aim to make the redevelopment of the station areas around Line 3 equitable and inclusive to all, to ensure that the voices of a relevant group of stakeholders are taken into account and to strengthen the city’s relationship with its constituents, we propose that the city take active measures to insure the adequate compensation for those who at risk of displacement. We make this recommendation in acknowledgment that this form of provision of adequate compensation is not new to the city of Guadalajara. In the past couple of years, the city’s Direction of Public Space Projects has attempted to provide adequate compensation for informal vendors in the city center by providing options for formalizing, ensuring that information on other employment opportunities provided by the city is disseminated or relocating vendors. We believe the same level of dedication for providing fair compensation should be instituted along with the Line 3’s TOD. Instituting Resources for Tackling the Resettlement Process One of the methods we propose for reducing displacement risk is to institute resources that are dedicated specifically to addressing the resettlement of people (be it with tenure or without) who will likely be forcibly evicted by the redevelopment of the station areas. The city of Guadalajara can look at the actions taken by two cities; Boston and the Massachusetts state as a whole as a relevant case studies to inspire the allocation of resources for taking on anti-displacement measures. Case Study: Setting an Anti-Displacement Legislative Agenda in Boston, MA Boston has issued many progressive policies that acknowledge the impact that city’s development boom will have on its local population. One of the most significant actions the city has taken is to institute the Office of Housing Stability. The Office of Housing Stability is a municipal level department established by the Mayor of Boston to actively work on preventing displacement and stabilizing housing provision. In addition to supporting tenants at risk of eviction due to high rents, the office also helps

tenants search and locate affordable housing in the case of unforeseen evictions. The office is also charged with drafting and reviewing new legislative and other public policy solutions to mitigate displacement. Recently, the city of Boston recently released such a legislation; Boston’s Anti-Displacement Legislative Agenda. This agenda provides a package of five bills that try to minimize the impacts of forced eviction following the redevelopment of significant parts of the city.10 Case Study: Building Institutional Capacity for Resettlement Processes in Massachusetts and Quito, Ecuador Among other states in the US, Massachusetts has a designated the Department of Housing and Community Development's (DHCD) Bureau of Relocation (BOR) to be responsible for providing advice, assistance and approvals for and to public and private entities that cause residents and/or businesses to move as the result of a publicly-funded project for the purposes of rehabilitation, demolition or other improvements. In general, the Bureau of Relocation acts as the central clearinghouse on local, state or federal projects that causes displacement. The BOR is charged with providing technical assistance to displaced residents and/or businesses and approving and ensuring compliance of displacing agencies’ relocation plans and claim payments, among other things. This would be an important step to take for Guadalajara, especially if the city pursues the option of land assembly recommended in this project. Additionally, Quito, Ecuador also has the Secretaria de Coordinacion Territorial and Participacion, which is dedicated to managing and coordinating resettlement of affected residents with the city’s Department of Planning and the Department of Territory and Housing.11 Consult International Standards as Guidelines for the Resettlement Process If the institutional capacity mentioned above can be achieved, Guadalajara can look to international guidelines on forced resettlement as examples for instituting resettlement policies as a next step. Regional and international institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank all have published strategies for resettlement following projects that they implement. 12 Although the strategies outlined by these institutions still require more advancement, they are a good place to start for setting a baseline approach as they outline key considerations such as the need to study and ensure participation of affected communities, outlining compensation options that offer equitable substitution for lost assets, timeline for implementation and evaluation of processes. Additionally, the UN’s Basic Principles and Guidelines on Development-based Evictions and Displacement address the human rights implications of development linked evictions and related displacement in urban and/or rural areas. The document outlines considerations that need to be taken before, during and after the eviction process that insure compliance with international human rights standards. It also provides a framework for assessing the fairness of 10

Boston Gov “Office of Housing Stability” https://www.boston.gov/departments/neighborhood-development/office-housing-stability, (Accessed- Dec 1st 2017) 11 Secretaria de Coordinacion Territorial and Participacion http://www.quito.gob.ec/index.php/secretarias/secretaria-de-coordinacion-territorial-yparticipacion 12 IDB Relocation Policy - http://www.iadb.org/es/acerca-del-bid/reasentamiento-involuntario-,6660.html World Bank Involuntary Resettlement Policy - http://siteresources.worldbank.org/OPSMANUAL/Resources/2103841170795590012/OP412ASpanish.pdf

compensation packages and resettlement policies.13 These existing frameworks can decrease the need for instituting new ones and the resources needed to accomplish the task at hand.

6.4 Institutional Recommendations Summary It is difficult to broach the topic of creating sustained support for the initiatives mentioned above without first acknowledging the potential political and institutional flux an election year in the State of Jalisco will likely bring. Although government functions related to land use regulation, streetscape allocation, deployment of MiBiCi infrastructure, execution of advertising campaigns, and relationships with local vendors are and will continue to be the responsibility of the city rather than the state or federal governments, the administration that will assume control of the city will have prerogative over how these functions are prioritized and organized. This transition, however, creates an opportunity to suggest a structure that can help to advance the comprehensive TOD strategies. What we propose is for the agencies responsible for regulating retailers, organizing how street space is allocated among walking, biking, and driving uses, and adjusting land use regulations to maintain their respective institutional prerogatives. Under the current administration, agencies have proven adept at proliferating cycling infrastructure, re-envisioning land uses and permissible density, and formalizing the retail climate. What is needed is not a reorganization of agencies, but a basic accountability mechanism to ensure that there is a clear institutional accountability structure to make sure that the city of Guadalajara can intentionally build on the already-realized gains. Office of TOD Coordination To achieve institutional accountability, a new mayoral administration should appoint a directorate or office charged with coordinating with existing agencies to move TOD interventions forward. Such an approach can be modeled largely on the structure employed by the current administration’s Coordinación General de Gestión Integral de la Ciudad to coordinate the city’s various agencies in service of transforming Alcalde’s streetscape, green infrastructure, waste management, and a host of other systems. Neighborhood Development Corporation As previously mentioned, a focused institution is essential in the realization of a new urban hub at La Normal. The La Normal Development Corporation, a public planning and development agency, will serve as a steward of growth for the area. The LNDC should be governed by a Board, which should be chaired by a city elected official. This official would oversee the appointment of all other board members. The Board should include leaders from the community, local businesses, land owners, developers, and transportation specialists. Collaboration with State of Jalisco Two Santuario-focused initiatives, clearing chain of title and building flexibility into historical preservation design standards, require the State of Jalisco’s intervention to achieve TOD transformation at the parcel level. • The best-positioned agency to execute an initiative to clarify ambiguous chain of title issues would be the Dirección General Del Registro Público De La Propiedad Y Del 13

UN’s Basic Principles and Guidelines on Development-based Evictions- http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Issues/Housing/Guidelines_en.pdf

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Comercio. As the State of Jalisco’s clearinghouse for property transaction records, this office is best positioned to perform the archival work necessary to eliminate the land ownership uncertainty that currently deters developers from acquiring land near the city’s historical center. While the office’s commission may be more in cataloging archives than in applying points of property law, onboarding the required legal expertise may prove easier than training legal experts from other government departments on all the procedures and policies of property record access. With institutional support at the state level, the city’s goal of more mixed density within the Santuario station area is far more achievable. A revision of design standards for building facades in historically-protected areas would likewise require State of Jalisco intervention. The small but influential office of Jalisco’s Secretaría de Cultura holds influence over how developers can and cannot alter buildings constructed after 1900. Securing buy-in from the Secretary would be essential to making it possible for interventions that would increase the flexibility of upper-floor uses in historical buildings.

7 Next Steps We acknowledge that the development proposals and strategies recommended in this report set a longer-term vision for TOD in Guadalajara. However, we also acknowledge there is considerable momentum behind TOD at the moment and hope to capitalize on this immediately. We recognize that the city is investing in public realm improvements and transportation infrastructure as well as updating zoning to facilitate this transformation of the city center. As such, we recommend the following next steps.

7.1 Phasing of Physical Interventions As stated previously, our intention in developing design schemes for Santuario and La Normal stations was to provide a template that could be adopted for other stations. Models for future development have proven significance in Guadalajara, as evidenced by the notable press attention paid to the transit-oriented multifamily residential development recently announced near the Mezquitán station. Though our proposal includes a comprehensive reimagining of the densities and uses in our study stations, identifying catalytic parcels to be developed that will then spur later development is important. We did not develop a clear phasing strategy, but strongly recommend this as an immediate next step. With respect to Santuario, this would mean significant consultation with Guadalajara’s development and design communities to determine the highest and best use—from both an economic and a social perspective—for the parcel at the Southeast Corner of Calle Juan Alvarez and Alcalde. Working with relevant stakeholders to determine the best product type for the parcel (hotel, commercial, residential, retail, mixed, etc.) will ensure that uncomplimentary uses do not impair the TOD ambitions for the station.

For La Normal, the roundabout remains central to our design proposals, and its size, diversity of potential uses and diversity in abutting owners create an imperative for a collaborative approach to planning. The creation of a working group for parcel owners abutting the roundabout could help to foreground conversations around future development and begin the process of classifying each of the current landholders on the rotary by current appetite for developing their land and potential timelines under which such development could happen. Without input and clarity from these property owners and clear coordination regarding phasing and timing of projects, creating a meaningful phasing proposal will remain difficult.

7.2 Strategic Stakeholder Engagement In addition to the stakeholder engagement mentioned above, engaging other important stakeholders such as merchants, and current and prospective homebuyers will be an essential step in shaping the TOD agenda going forward. Most importantly, it is critical that the city engage with stakeholders early on the process. A thorough stakeholder engagement strategy is an opportunity to sensitively ease the community into the proposals and to address any negative pushback, as well as prevent or mitigate the negative foreseen impacts of development. If done right, this is also an opportunity to raise awareness and garner community support. Government officials and real estate stakeholders have long held that homebuyers are averse to certain elements of TOD (e.g. the de-prioritization of off-street parking), but shifts in attitude will be most discernible if said attitudes are surveyed periodically. Data indicating any future shifts in tastes could prove valuable to developers and could provide a helpful check on the anecdotal hedonic preference information gathered during the property marketing process. Merchant engagement will also be valuable as the city seeks to understand how to incorporate existing retailers into new development and how to monitor issues like the 2nd floor warehousing phenomenon. Our template survey (see appendices) could provide a helpful foundation on which the city can build.

7.3 Improving the Accessibility of Transit through Technology One of the most straightforward interventions that can complement Line 3, highlight its advantages, and create buzz around its opening is engaging riders through online applications and tools that offer more visibility into travel times and enhance trip planning capability. Through General Transit Feed Specification technology (see Appendix D for more detail), SITEUR could make schedule and operational data available for Lines 1,2, and 3 on commonly-used applications like Google Maps. A GTFS feed could also include information about the MacrobĂşs and highlight the potential for intermodal connections. Empowering riders through this technology would be a quick, low-cost way to create additional buzz about Line 3, and facilitate ridership.

8 Conclusion In this report, we presented a path for the planning and design of Guadalajara’s urban environment in light of the current construction of Line 3 in the heart of the city. We defined successful TOD in Guadalajara as a set of interventions to bring people, activities, buildings, and public space closer together and we contend that Guadalajara is on track to meeting this vision. As such, TOD in Guadalajara will satisfy private profit motives, public transportation objectives, and urban development goals through the context-sensitive design of physical, financial, and policy measures. We expect Guadalajara to provide an invaluable model for successful TOD across medium-sized Latin American cities. We hope that our findings contribute to the development of successful TOD in Guadalajara while also laying the path for additional data gathering, robust market demand analysis, and onthe-ground engagement and expertise. Moving forward, we recommend that the city of Guadalajara conduct robust analyses to verify our conclusions and uncover more detailed insights. Additionally, it is crucial that residents, shop owners, transit riders, users of public space, and other stakeholders be consulted to encourage public engagement in the design and execution of TOD. In addition to verifying the conclusions of our research, we have produced several products that could also be further refined should they be useful to the city. One product is GTFS data summarizing the existing Guadalajara transit system in Google Transit and many other formats. The GTFS data we prepared is ready for use and has been shared with SITEUR. Second, we created and piloted a commercial-housing survey and Android app intended to assess stakeholder and market needs, particularly of Guadalajara business owners. This app could easily support many other information-gathering efforts for the city. We are grateful to Mayor Enrique Alfaro Ramírez and Hugo Luna for providing us with access to the officials across the City of Guadalajara and for inspiring our research. We are also grateful to Grupo PRODI for sponsoring our research project and travel to Guadalajara. We are in great debt to our professors -- Chris Zegras, Brent Ryan, and Onésimo Flores -- for guiding our work and helping us learn.

9 Appendix 9.1 Massing Model The purpose of the 3D massing model create a model of what the station catchment area looks like in terms of built form, and in terms of land use as a percentage of GFA, which can use to estimate the number of residents and employees at a given density for a given breakdown of land use types.

Why We Created the Model The massing model served two primary functions in the service of this report and our ultimate recommendations to the city of Guadalajara. 1. With the massing model, we could compare three scenarios: the existing built environment, a fully maxed out environment given the PPDU zoning conditions, and our proposed development scenario for Santuario and La Normal. This helped us better interpret the impact of more density in Santuario and La Normal in terms of land uses and people (in the form of residents, employees, and transit riders). Density can be seen as a good in and of itself, but through this model we sought to rigorously compare three different density scenarios – today, max, and in between – to tease out what is a density goal for northern Alcalde that does not compromise on the City’s other goals for TOD. [Note, the maximum buildout of course doesn’t reflect a scenario that is likely to ever be realized, but it was a useful exercise in terms of setting an upper bound on the realm of possibility if the market were truly flooded in an unchecked way.] 2. We also used the model to see our proposed intervention both visually and numerically in terms of land use broken down by type, which we could then calculate to get an estimated number of residents, jobs, and transit users. This helped us iterate and improve our development intervention so that the physical density and the land uses aligned with what we consider “successful” TOD (see Section 2). We also ran the resident and employee numbers through the trip generation model (discussed below) to estimate whether the number of riders would exceed the capacity of Line 3.

How We Created the Model Using CityEngine (an ESRI product) we wrote a code that set a series of inputs (such as parcel coverage, setbacks, upper-story setbacks, building height, floor height, and land use by floor) for each parcel in the two station catchment areas. For the existing buildout, we used building footprints and building heights from the GEOGDL database as well as land uses indicated in the PPDU files. For the maximum buildout, we calculated the maximum allowable building envelope using the PPDU files. For the proposed buildout, we selected the parcels we were proposing to alter and assigned them building heights, parcel coverage, setbacks and upper-story setbacks, and land uses. These are described in more detail in Section 5. We then coded a reporting function in CityEngine that would produce a table for the whole catchment area with total built area (in square meters), total gross floor area (GFA), and then

GFA broken down by land use. We then exported this into Excel, where we calculated an estimate of the number of residents and employees based on the land use GFAs. For the existing buildout, we first subtracted out a percentage of vacant GFA given the IMEPLAN residential vacancy rates of 11% for La Normal and 22% for Santuario. Then, we used the residential numbers and employee numbers from the 2010 census and IMEPLAN to back into GFA per person by land use. We did this since we found that when using our assumptions for GFA by land use per person, the population numbers were significantly higher than they are in the census. This – and conversations with government and real estate experts in Guadalajara – led us to believe that the existing built environment is not efficiently used today. When backing into GFA land use per person using the residential and employee statistics of today, we found that commercial and institutional spaces are used at around 54 m2 and 80 m2 today respectively. This is compared to the assumptions we used for the proposed and maximum buildout (as informed by conversations with market research experts in Guadalajara) of: 30 m2 of commercial space per person and 40 m2 of institutional space per person. (Residential was fairly constant at roughly 35m2 per person, which is still high compared to the city-wide average.) For the proposed buildout, we increased density in two ways: first, we assumed that the land uses would be more efficient – as discussed in the paragraph above – and second, we proposed additional density in the form of infill or new development. Given the inefficient use of existing GFA today, even suggesting moderate additions to the GFA, the numbers of residents and employees increased dramatically. Thus, we needed to iterate a fair amount in our proposed buildout to ensure that the additional GFA (and corresponding land uses) did not lead to an overcrowding of La Normal or Santuario. This was the stage of this project in which the three main components of our work came together: we used the designs and pro formas to generate development schemes which we then put into the 3D massing model, and then we used the massing model to spit out GFA by land use, which we could use to calculate estimates of residents and employees, which we in turn plugged into our trip generation model to determine whether this number of people would max out capacity for Line 3. We went through this cycle a few times to reach numbers that came down low enough to not exacerbate the functioning of Line 3. A note on the proposed buildout for La Normal: given the large parcel sizes in La Normal, building out a massing model in CityEngine for the area around the La Normal roundabout was difficult. Thus, we developed a more customized buildout in Rhino. This was just done for the largest parcels directly around and north of the roundabout. The rest of the proposed La Normal buildout (including the “transition zone” ring around between the large parcels and the small residential neighborhood parcels) was all done in CityEngine as described above. LA NORMAL OUTPUTS

# of residents # of employees

TODAY

RECOMMENDED 16684 10761

MAX 33031 52081

27143 228796 90

# of residents # of employees

% increase TODAY AND % increase MAX AND % increase MAC and REC TODAY REC 98% 63% -18% 384% 2026% 339%

% Breakdown of LU GFA Commercial (Office and Retail) Residential Institutional Change in Average FAR Average FAR

TODAY

REC 38% 61% 1%

TODAY

MAX 55% 42% 3% -

REC 1.90

88% 12%

MAX 3.00

6.00

SANTUARIO OUTPUTS

# of residents # of employees

TODAY

RECOMMENDED 15858 19119

MAX 39010 45794

8760 189586

# of residents # of employees

% increase TODAY AND % increase MAX AND % increase MAC and REC TODAY REC 146% -45% -78% 140% 892% 314%

% Breakdown of LU GFA Commercial (Office and Retail) Residential Institutional Change in Average FAR Average FAR

TODAY

REC 56% 34% 10%

TODAY

MAX 48% 50% 2% -

REC 1.90

95% 5%

MAX 2.30

4.10

9.2 Pro Forma: Development Viability Analysis In the attached excel document, the development viability analysis can be reviewed. Three alternative development scenarios have been evaluated. For each case, the estimated cash flows are modelled in the section at the top of the page. The net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) are calculated in rows 34 and 35. The NPV is calculated based on our assumption that developers require a 15% return to proceed with a project. 15% is taken to be the opportunity cost of capital. The parameters upon which the cash flow analysis is based are listed in the Inputs section from row 39 downwards. Model 1: ‘Internal cross-subsidy’: 20-floor building with a mixture of larger units targeted at the upper middle class/luxury market, and used to cross-subsidize smaller units targeted at lower income families. Model 2: ‘Full middle income’: 12-floor building with a mix of unit sizes targeted at the middle-income market. Model 3: ‘Subsidized low income’: 12-floor building with larger units targeted at the middle-income market and smaller units targeted at lower income families. This model requires an external subsidy for each smaller unit to make the development viable.

9.3 Modelling the Transportation System An understanding of the transportation system and its sensitivity vis-à-vis development is fundamental to successful TOD. First, the ability of mass transit to move large numbers of people efficiently is one of the primary motivators for TOD. As such, quantifying this benefit is important. Secondly, the capacity of the transportation network, particularly the roads and transit services, to a large degree informs the limit to the scale of development. To that end, we modelled the transportation system with a focus on the utilization of the new Line 3. Due to the limited data availability, we used two different methods to estimate Line 3 ridership. Namely, these were: • A direct ridership model estimated using OLS regression on ridership data from the existing light rail lines 1 and 2; and • The trip generation method presented by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual. The two methods and their advantages and limitations are described in the following section. Then, we discuss how these models are used for benefits and system performance evaluations.

9.4 Direct Ridership Model With the direct ridership model, we estimate the elasticity of the number of daily boardings at a light rail station with respect to demographic, socio-economic, and built environment variables representing an 800-meter radius buffer around the station. The model is estimated using OLS

regression with ridership data from existing stations along Lines 1 and 2 provided by SITEUR14 as the dependent variable and data from the 2008 household travel survey, the 2010 census survey, and various data from IMEPLAN as explanatory variables. With the estimated elasticities, expressed as model coefficients, we can forecast the number of daily boardings at each Line 3 station based on the corresponding explanatory variables. The explanatory variables that we found to be statistically significant with a reasonable level of confidence and the best estimates for their coefficients, which yielded an adjusted R2 of 0.88, are shown in the table below. Note that the intercept is 0. Table 7: Direct ridership model

Variable Employment [count] Population [count] Average Income [pesos per month] Intersection [count] Average Block Size [hectare]

Coefficients 0.29 0.05 -1.36 6.10 2003

tStatistic 6.51 1.09 -2.58 1.48 1.62

Pvalue 0.00 0.29 0.02 0.15 0.12

The confidence in the statistical significance of some explanatory variables is relatively low. Specifically, we can only be 71% confident based on the data that population actually has an impact on ridership. However, using our best judgement, we thought it critical for the usefulness of the model for it to be sensitive to the number of people living near the stations, and thus included it despite its unconvincing t-statistic and p-value. The very limited influence of population on ridership is indicative of a travel pattern where commuters take busses to suburban CETRAMs and transfer to the light rail. We do not expect this type of behavior to be prevalent at light rail stations in the historic downtown. This in turn highlights another limitation of the direct ridership model. The model considers each station as an independent entity. However, in reality, ridership at each station is heavily influenced by its location in the network and the function it serves in the wider urban system. These effects are largely neglected in by the direct ridership model. Finally, we were able to achieve a good model fit, i.e. explain the variance in the data that the model was estimated on, but have fairly weak confidence in the explanatory variables overall. This is primarily a consequence of the small sample size used to estimate the model. The sample size was limited by the number of light rail stations that currently exist in Guadalajara (28 total). With these limitations in mind, the ridership model was still able to confirm many of our hypotheses. For example, we expected higher ridership at stations with more employees and residents. This observation supports our proposed densification of neighborhoods along Line 3 to improve utilization rates. The negative elasticity ridership with respect to average income suggests that people with higher income are less likely to take transit. Since Line 3 will pass through several middle to high income areas, it is crucial to make transit an attractive option for the demographics in these neighborhoods by investing in facilities, operations and public education programs. In applying our model, we first consider the baseline scenarios prior to our proposed densification. For these scenarios, we use the ridership projections from the cost-benefit report for Line 3 by SenerMex and TransConsult. For their analysis, they developed a 4-step model, 14

http://isa.com.mx/pdf/PRESENTACION_SITEUR.pdf

which we believe shores up some of the limitations of our direct ridership model. Specifically, a 4-step model is better able to take into consideration the system effects disregarded by our direct ridership model. From here we apply our ridership elasticities to the new development. The results are presented in the table below. Table 8: Results of direct ridership model for existing and proposed development scenarios.

Existing Development

Proposed Development

Population Employment Projected Daily Boardings Additional Population Additional Employment Additional Daily Boardings Total Population Total Employment Total Daily Boardings

Santuario 15858 19119 3000 23152 26675 8893 39010 45794 11893

La Normal 16684 10761 9200 16347 41320 12800 33031 52081 22000

9.5 ITE Trip Generation The ITE Trip Generation Manual provides vehicle trip rates by land use, e.g. retail, general offices, apartments, high-rise condos, etc. They are given for the AM and PM peak hours as well as daily, which allows us to compare demand to capacity during peak periods. However, the trip rates are estimated on counts in the US context, which of course may not be representative of Guadalajara. Our use of ITEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trip generation method can be described in the following six steps: 1. Generate auto vehicle trips Based on the number of residents and employees at each station and the trip rates from ITEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trip generation manual we determine the number of trips generated for the entire day and for the AM peak hour, which is the most severe hour. The rates we use are presented in the table below. Table 9: Vehicle trips generated under proposed scenario

Santuario Apartments [trips/dwelling unit]

Normal Development General Office Mid/High-rise General Office Type [trips/employee] condos [trips/employee] [trips/dwelling unit] Daily 6.65 3.50 4.20 3.50 AM Peak Hour 0.51 0.43 0.30 0.43 For residential uses, the rates are for each dwelling unit. We converted from the number of residents to the number of dwelling units by assuming four residents per dwelling unit, which is the average household size in the Municipality of Guadalajara15. Additionally, retail is not accurately captured by our trip rate assumptions.

https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/43067/Jalisco_039.pdf

2. Convert to total trips From vehicle trips, we calculate total trips by multiplying by the average vehicle occupancy. Since the trip rates were estimated for the US context, we also apply an occupancy rates from the US16. We the 1.15, which is the average occupancy rate for all motorized private modes for work trips. We use the rates for work as opposed to all purposes because the vast majority of trips the AM peak hour, when the demand is closest to capacity, will likely be work trips. However, this assumption is likely not very accurate for trips over the entire day. 3. Determine internal trip capture The availability of a mix of activity destinations and the improved job-worker balance allow many trips to remain within the neighborhoods. These therefore do not strain primary mobility corridors. The ITE Trip Generation Manual reports an average 36% internal trip capture across several mixed used developments. 4. Determine the number of trips by each mode We assume that mode split around the new Line 3 stations is the same as that around Line 1 and 3 stations. Specifically, we examine all trips from the 2008 household travel survey that originate from within 800 meters of a station on Line 1 or 2. The mode shares are presented below. Table 10: Mode share from 2008 household travel survey

Mode Transit Active Modes Car Driver Car Passenger Other

Mode Share 44% 24% 18% 9% 5%

Multiplying these mode shares by the total number of external trips provides us with the external trips by each mode. Considering the rapid rate of development and change in Guadalajara, we do not expect these mode shares to be very accurate more than a decade later. In particular, efforts to encourage cycling in recent years has likely increased the cycling mode share much beyond what it was at the time of household travel survey, where it was so low (<1%) that we decided to merge it with walking. Furthermore, the development â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and by extension, mode shares â&#x20AC;&#x201C; around existing Line 1 and 2 stations does not accurately reflect the development we hope to see at Santuario or La Normal, with dense mixed use development and sustainable mobility incentives. 5. Convert auto trips to auto vehicle trips Since it is vehicles, as opposed to people, that constrains road capacity, we should convert from car trips to vehicle trips. However, the mode shares are conveniently presented as car driver and car passenger. Therefore, we simply assume that the

http://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/avo_TRPTRANS_WHYTRP1S.html

number of car driver trips is equal to the number of vehicle trips, while car passenger trips do not add to vehicle trips. 6. Determine share of transit trips use Line 3 In addition to simply knowing the mode shares, we are particularly interested in Line 3 utilization. In other words, we need to determine the fraction of transit trips that will likely be made by Line 3. For each station, we assume that the share of transit trips that are made using Line 3 is equal to the fraction of the 800-meter radius buffer area around each station that is closer to a Line 3 station than another mass transit station. Of course, this is a very rudimentary assumption as it disregards the transit service connectivity, the origin/destination demands of travelers, and the interaction between them. Furthermore, it does not consider the distribution of use and density within the buffer area. Finally, it does not account for transit ridership from outside the 800 meter buffer area, including bus connection, which can potentially feed in and serve a considerable number of riders at CETRAMs like La Normal. The number of trips generated resulting from this method are presented in the tables below. Santuario AM peak hour Active Vehicle Total External Auto Transit Line 3 Use Vehicles Mode Trips Trips Trips Trips Trips Trips Trips Residents 4974 5720 3661 663 446 1614 875 864 Employment 19691 22645 14493 2623 1765 6391 3463 3420 Total 28365 18154 3286 2211 8006 4338 4284 Santuario Daily Use Residents Employment Total

Vehicle Trips

Total Trips

64854 160279

74582 184321 258903

External Trips 47733 117965 165698

Auto Trips 8640 21352 29991

Vehicles 5813 14367 20180

Transit Trips 21050 52023 73073

Line 3 Trips 11407 28190 39597

Active Mode Trips 11265 27840 39105

La Normal AM peak hour Use

Vehicle Trips

Residents Employment Total

2477 22395

Total Trips 2849 25754 28603

External Trips 1823 16483 18306

Auto Trips 330 2983 3313

Vehicles 222 2007 2229

Transit Trips 804 7269 8073

Line 3 Trips 485 4387 4872

Active Mode Trips 430 3890 4320

La Normal Daily Use Residents Employment Total

Vehicle Trips

Total Trips

34683 182284

39885 209626 249511

External Trips 25526 134161 159687

Auto Trips 4620 24283 28903

Vehicles 3109 16339 19448

Transit Trips 11257 59165 70422

Line 3 Trips 6794 35706 42500

Active Mode Trips 6024 31662 37686

9.6 Benefits Evaluation The benefits of TOD as they relate to the transportation system consist primarily of shifting trip modes from auto to more sustainable options, including transit, bike, and walk. This reduces road congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and the amount of valuable urban land that must be dedicated to vehicle transportation. We use the trip generation method to quantify this impact because the direct ridership model does not capture the effects beyond Line 3. While it is part of our objective to generate economic growth with our proposed development, it is beyond the scope of this document to quantify this effect. Instead, for this analysis we assume that people and jobs are attracted to our developments from elsewhere in the metropolitan area. Thus, we can measure the impact as the difference between our development scenario and a scenario where the same development occurred elsewhere. In other words, we compare number of auto trips per day, time spent in traffic per day, and annual carbon emissions of our proposed development to that of a development scenario with average metropolitan mode splits and without internal trip capture. The table below shows he average metropolitan mode splits. Mode Share 30% 32% 15% 8% 10%

Mode Transit Active Modes Car Driver Car Passenger Other

Note that the auto mode near transit is actually higher than the metropolitan-wide average. This may be a result of high quality transit primarily serving more affluent parts of the city. For our comparison, this means that benefits are derived from internal trip capture. We assume that the average auto trip travel time is 20 minutes, which was the average duration found in the most recent household travel survey. Additionally, we assumed that the average auto travel speed is 40 km/hr and that the average car emits 255 gCO2/km. With these we determine the benefits presented in the table below. Daily auto trips saved Santuario La Normal Total

6096 trips 5875 trips 11971 trips

Reduction in time spent in traffic per day 2100 hours 2024 hours 4124 hours

Annual emissions savings 6472 tons 6238 tons 12710 tons

9.7 System Performance Analysis The densification around Santuario and La Normal stations will undoubtedly increase transit use. However, determining its impact on the performance of Line 3 and the transit system at large is non-trivial. In particular, system performance is, as the name suggests, a function of the system, and not just the development at specific stations. Thus, whether or not the increased demand at Santuario and La Normal causes capacity issues will depend on how the rest of the system reacts. However, for the purposes of our preliminary analysis, we will look at the two stations in isolation. With the current plan to procure 18 train sets, each with a capacity of 500

passengers and a terminal to terminal travel time of 33 minutes, Line 3 can operate with a headway of approximately 4 minutes. This translates to 15 departures per hour or total capacity, accounting for a peak hour factor of 0.8, of 12,000 passengers per hour. In other words, if trains arrived empty to a station, the system could accommodate 12,000 passengers every hour. Of course, trains will rarely arrive empty in reality. Comparing this capacity to the number of Line 3 trips generation using the ITE method, 4,338 for Santuario and 4,872 for La Normal during the peak hour, the demand from these two stations alone would use up more than 75% of the line’s total capacity. While breakdown conditions are not evident from these results alone, it seems extremely likely that, when we include riders passing through these stations with origins and destinations upstream and downstream along the line, we will need additional capacity. By procuring additional trainsets, and lowering the headway to 3 minutes or 2.5 minutes, the total capacity would increase to 16,000 or 19,200 passengers per hour, respectively. Furthermore, while the increased transit demand should be considered a positive outcome, it also emphasizes the importance of encouraging and incentivizing the use of active modes. In addition to the transit system, the road network will certainly also see increased utilization. Unfortunately, we did not have access to existing traffic counts, thus it was not feasible to determine congestion impacts. A zeroth order analysis, where we disregard background traffic, suggests that if all vehicle trips during the AM peak hour, 2211 for Santuario and 2229 for La Normal, were to travel by the major corridors, i.e. Independencia and Federalisimo, these roads would be congested, but manageable. However, background traffic along these major corridors is certainly not negligible, which reemphasizes the necessity of sustainable mobility incentives and travel demand management measures.

9.8 General Transit Feed Specification The General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) defines a common format for public transportation schedules and associated geographic information. GTFS “feeds” allow public transit agencies to publish their transit data and developers to use that data to write applications. GTFS datasets are used in a variety of types of applications, including trip planners such as Google Maps, mobile applications, timetable generation software, tools for transit planning and operations analysis, etc. We believe that a clear representation of public transit services like Google Map transit option will help engage more riders who find taking public transit easy and convenient when knowing the estimated routes and travel time. SITEUR may consider using GTFS to represent reliable transit services and transit as a good option. This product potentially has contribution to ridership. For Line 1, Line 2 and Macrobús that already have operation data, we have prepared several data files that are required by the GTFS format. The details of the files are shown below:

Table 11: Required files to construct GTFS data. Source: https://developers.google.com/transit/gtfs/reference/#feed_files

We used information obtained from SITEUR website and from Claudia such that: • Line1 and Line2 operations: 5:00 to 23:00 The last train leaves at 22:30 from the Line1 terminals, and at 22:40 from the Line2 terminals • Macrobús operations: 5:00 to 23:00. • Line1 headways: peak hour every 5 min; otherwise every 8min. • Line2 headways: peak hour every 4 min; otherwise 7 min • Sunday headways: every 15 min in L1 and 12 min in L2 We also assumed the following to complete data: • Macrobús has same operation time and headways as Line 2 • Peak hour is 7-9 am and 5-7 pm. One can test it for validation at http://gtfsfeedvalidator.transitscreen.com/. The GTFS data files based on the information and assumptions above are ready and passed the validation test. The public transit authority (SITEUR) will have to publish the data on Google or other platforms in order to make the transit information public to use. We believe the GTFS data publication for Line 1, 2 and Macrobús can be done now and for Line 3 it shall be done when Line 3 is ready to operate.

9.9 Real Estate Survey In order to better understand the real estate market in Guadalajara, we decided to conduct a self-driven analysis that would incorporate existing data sources and seek to augment them through a survey design tailored to capture individual preferences. Although our conversations with developers in Guadalajara were fruitful in terms of gaining a generic understanding of the market, we were unable to obtain robust data.

9.9.1 Framework We decided to utilize property listing websites in order to gather the required data through web scraping techniques. Two websites -- Metros Cubicos and Casas y Terrenos -- were used in this initial effort. Data about different transaction types (sale/rent) and property types (houses/commercial spaces/offices) were obtained. The data scraping algorithm provided the

area (in square meters), number of bedrooms, price (in pesos) and the address of each listing of interest. After removing data outliers by restricting values of area and price to reasonable intervals, we used the Google Geocoding API to obtain location information for each listing, i.e. the address was converted to latitude-longitude. The data composition is shown below.

Figure 50: Data obtained by scraping property listing websites.

Using data from sources such as IMEPLAN, INEGI and DENUE, we were able to compute other variables of interest such as population density (number of people/square kilometer), median household income (at the AGEB level), proximity to major transit lines (meters), proximity to business hubs (meters), job accessibility and proximity to public amenities (meters). All of these variables were then used to create a hedonic price model where we focused only on the transaction type that had the majority of data for each property type. The summary of the models is shown below. Table 12: Summary of hedonic price models

Property Type

Residential

Commercial

Office

Transaction Type

Sale

Rent

Sample Size

115

0.574

0.324

0.339

Adjusted R-squared

Since we wish to utilize the findings from this model to inform our affordable housing design, we present more detailed results for the residential sale price model only. The figure below shows the impact of an increase by 10% in a variable considered in the model on the property price. Some variables have been excluded from the figure due to statistical non-significance.

100

Figure 51: Results from residential sale price model (impact of 10% increase in variable on price)

It is not surprising to see the impact on area and number of bedrooms being almost the same. The magnitude of the impact suggests that people value units with larger spaces very dearly. Interestingly, proximity to major LRT lines -- Line 1 and Line 2 -- is not preferred; individuals would pay more to live further away from them. This does not bode well for the perception of transit in Guadalajara and is an indicator of the requirement of government intervention to ensure success of Line 3. Preference for proximity to Macrobus is quite high comparatively. We attribute the positive impact of Line 3 to market speculation at the moment. In order to further understand individual preferences and market behavior, we decided to design a mixed revealed preference - stated preference (RP-SP) survey that would augment the data we already have.

Figure 52: RP-SP survey design.

The framework of the RP-SP survey is shown in the figure above. We would start off with generic questions about demographics, such as the individualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s age, gender, occupation, income status, car ownership, etc. This would be followed by questions pertaining to the individualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current housing, such as area, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, presence of a parking spot, municipality location, etc. The revealed preference of the survey would require the individual to choose attributes for their preferred or dream housing. In addition to the attributes in the previous section, we include the variables that were used in the hedonic price model. The values entered by the individual in the revealed preference section are used to compute the estimated price through the hedonic price model which is embedded in the survey. Furthermore, a range of hypothetical options are generated based on the individualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s choice with prices attached to each option that have been computed by the embedded hedonic model. This forms

101

the stated preference section of the survey. An example is shown in the figure below. Three different values of a single variable (Distance to LRT in this example) are provided along with the corresponding prices. These prices are calculated by the embedded hedonic price model using the individualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s choices from the revealed preference section and changing values only for the variable under consideration (Distance to LRT in this example). The individual is now asked to rank the three options in decreasing order of preference.

Figure 53: State preference survey outline

Such a survey design enables us to understand inherent preferences for housing (through the revealed preference survey) as well as latent constructs such as willingness-to-pay for particular attributes (through the stated preference survey). The SP survey is especially important because such latent constructs are difficult to capture through RP surveys and often do not line up with real preferences if done so.

9.9.2 Implementation A smartphone application was deemed to be the best option to pilot this survey. Looking at the use of smartphone operating systems, we decided to go forward with building an Android app as Android captures 90% of the smartphone market in Mexico. The app was named Vivienda en GDL. The logo of the app is showcased in the figure below.

Figure 54: Android smartphone app designed for survey implementation

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The app had different screens pertaining to each section of the survey. The screens are listed as follows in order of appearance: (1) Welcome Screen, (2) Project Description Screen, (3) Demographic Survey Screen, (4) Current Housing Survey Screen, (5) Preferred Housing Survey (RP) Screen, (6) Stated Preference for Variable 1 (SP1) Screen, …, (10) Line 3 Usage Survey Screen, (11) Thank You Screen. The .apk file for the app is stored on a Github public repository which can be accessed at this link: https://github.com/basurounaq11/Vivienda-en-GDL. Individuals can download this file and install the app on their Android smartphones.

9.10 Commercial Survey To understand more about the commercial retailers in Guadalajara, we devised and conducted a pilot study. Two methods of data collection were piloted: observations and owner interviews with the intent of gaining a better understanding of both the built environment as well as the small business owners. The purpose of conducting this study was to help the MIT team understand the commercial context as well as provide a basis for further study for the city of Guadalajara.

9.10.1 Survey Analysis The first part of the study was observational. The research team observed commercial and retail businesses along Alcalde to understand how shop owners utilized their space and to see if there was any potential to optimize the development and use of the area. In particular, the underutilized second floors, i.e. second floors left vacant or used for warehousing, were documented and recorded. One hypothesis the MIT research team investigated was that a more active utilization of these spaces could reinvigorate the Santuario Station area. Of the twenty-four shops visited, thirteen appeared to have second floors that were inactive, vacant, or used for warehousing (over half). Of the thirteen properties with underused second floors, only four had discernable separate entrances for the upper floors – and it is suspected that the lack of separate access may be inhibiting the marketability for either additional retail or for housing in these upper floor spaces. The second phase of the study included interviews with retail shop owners. The goal of this part of the study was to understand the size of the businesses, the ownership of the buildings, and how TOD might affect them. Of the five interviews conducted with shop owners, two owned the building where there shop resided and three were renters. Those that owned their commercial space also owned the building as a whole and were longer-term occupants of the space (over 11 years) who also lived in Guadalajara. The other two stores were rental stores that had existed for 1-5 years with owners who were from Tonalá and Tlaquepaque. Three of the five shop owners used a personal car to get to work. All five shop owners interviewed used their store space and the upper floors (when available) for inventory storage. Only one rented an additional storage space (located in the historic center) because his business reputation was dependent on his ability to provide specialty sewing goods on demand. He indicated that the expensive storage was worth it to him because that was how he attracted his customer base. From this pilot survey the team concluded that the city should have a vested interest in increasing the use of the vacant upper floors of commercial establishments, as it will be an

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indicator of the economic development success of Santuario. Additional thoughts on secondfloor development can be found in the policies section.

9.10.2 Survey Questions 1. Tipo de tienda 2. Área de la tienda (en metros cuadrados) 3. ¿Con qué frecuencia recibes productos para la tienda? o Diario o Una vez a la semana o Cada quince días o Una vez al mes o Otro_______ 4. ¿Quién ocupa el primer piso de tu edificio? o Bodega o Vivienda o Comercio o El primer piso esta desocupado o Otro_______ 5. BRANCH: Si aplica, cuánto tiempo lleva desocupado el primer piso o Por lo menos un mes o Más de un mes o Mas de un año 6. ¿Dónde guardas la mayor parte de tu inventario? o En la tienda o En una bodega o En tu edificio o Otro_____ 7. ¿Pagas renta para algún espacio de bodega? 8. ¿Eres dueño de la tienda? o Dueño o Rento o Otro________ 9. BRANCH: Si rentas, podrías decirnos cuánto pagas de renta o _________ 10. Comentarios y fotografías

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