Climate Change in Chihuahua, Mexico

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

May, 2015

Page 1

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database Pineda Flores Guadalupe María (A01361356)a, Ruvalcaba Sánchez Victoria (A01361714)b, Carbajal Morales José (A01365511)c, Navarrete Serrano Enrique Eugenio (A01365141)d, Gustavo Peñaloza Díaz (A01365336)e a

Student of Architecture (ARQ11), Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education, Toluca, México.

Student of Architecture (ARQ11), Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education, Toluca, México. c Student of Industrial Engineering with minor in Systems Engineering (IIS11), Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education, Toluca, México. d Student of Mechatronics Engineering (IMT11), Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education, Toluca, México. e Student of Architecture (ARQ11), Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education, Toluca, México. b

l

The changes we are witnessing and those that are predicted are largely due to human behavior. We are burning fossil fuels, and heating up the planet at the same time. We blow ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere every year – 29 billion tonnes of it (2004) and rising – and this warms the globe.1

The average temperature in Mexico is warm almost all year long. It is impossible to give an average temperature for this nation because temperatures vary from city to city. The average maximum temperature in Mexico City in July is 72 to 75 degrees, whereas Mazatlan experiences average between 90 to 92 degrees highest.

In the case of Chihuahua, the largest state of Mexico with an area of 245,945 square kilometers (94,960 square miles) about one-third the size of the US state of Texas, is dry to semi-arid although there is regular rainfall. The average annual temperature is 20°c (68°f). Annual rainfall ranges from 221 millimeters (8.7 inches) to 1,023 millimeters (40.3 inches) according to Nations-encyclopedia.

THE MONTHLY MEAN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURE IN CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO.

Hot season / summer is in April, May, June, July, August, September and October. Chihuahua has dry periods in January, February, March, April, May, October, November and December. On average, the warmest month is June. On average, the coolest month is January and August is the wettest month. February is the driest mont.

1

WWF Global. (2015). Rising temperatures. May 17, 2015, de WWF Website: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/ rising_temperatures/ 2 WW&CI. (2015). AVERAGE WEATHER IN CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO. May 16, 2015, de World Weather and Climate Information Website: http://www.weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Rainfall-Temperature-Sunshine,Chihuahua,Mexico

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

May, 2015

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THE MONTHLY TOTAL OF SUN-HOURS IN CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO.

Precipitation varies throughout the year, is most likely around July, occurring in 27% of days. Precipitation is least likely around March, occurring in 6% of days. The fraction of days in which various types of precipitation are observed. If more than one type of precipitation is reported in a given day, the more severe precipitation is counted. The order of severity is from the top down in this graph, with the most severe at the bottom. Over the entire year, the most common forms of precipitation are moderate rain, light rain, and thunderstorms. Moderate rain is the most severe precipitation observed during 32% of those days with precipitation. It is most likely around July 22, when it is observed during 8% of all days. Light rain is the most severe precipitation observed during 27% of those days with precipitation. It is most likely around August, when it is observed during 8% of all days.

Thunderstorms are the most severe precipitation observed during 26% of those days with precipitation. They are most likely around August 1, when it is observed during 9% of all days.1 In 2012, a record drought was registered in Chihuahua. The region's beef herds were ravaged by that event, one which scientists linked to climate change. No rain means no pasture and in Chihuahua, an estimated 350,000 cows died in 12 months, costing ranchers around 2.4bn pesos (£110m) according to ‘The Independent’. Although famous for its desert, much of Chihuahua, the size of Belgium, is covered by vast pine forests and extensive, scrubby savannah, which has been used to rear livestock since the conquering Spaniards first arrived in the mid-16th Century.

THIS IS THE MEAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING RAIN, SNOW, HAIL ETC.

From tropical storms battering Central America to melting Andean glaciers, Latin America and the Caribbean are particularly vulnerable to climate change. According to a report released last month by the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Wildlife Fund.

1

WS Beta. (2015). Average Weather For Chihuahua, Mexico. May 17, 2015, de WeatherSpark Website: https://weatherspark.com/ averages/32543/Chihuahua-Mexico

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

May, 2015

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A table with climate values annually from 1993 to 2014 of Chihuahua. Specify the annual average temperatures in degrees Centigrade among other climate factors from the same state down below:

CLIMATE VALUES Chihuahua, MĂŠxico Year

Annual Average

Maximum Annual Average

Minimum Annual Average

Annual Precipitatio n (rain and/ or snow melt)

Wind Speed Annual Average (Km/h)

Total Rainy Days

Total Snowy Days

Total Total Days with Days with Storms fog

Total Days with Tornadoes or Funnel Clouds

Total Days with Hail

1993

21.4

27.2

12.1

-

12.4

45

1

23

2

0

11

1994

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1995

22.5

28.1

13.1

-

11.6

19

0

6

1

0

0

1996

21.3

27.4

11.6

-

11.0

26

1

8

1

0

0

1997

19.7

26.6

10.6

2.03

11.9

43

7

9

4

0

0

1998

21.4

28.1

11.7

2.03

13.2

24

0

10

1

0

0

1999

20.7

27.6

10.3

-

13.8

26

1

15

1

0

0

2000

20.4

27.1

10.2

-

13.7

37

1

3

0

0

0

2001

20.3

26.8

10.7

-

16.1

26

3

4

1

0

0

2002

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2003

20.5

26.9

-

14.5

35

1

1

0

0

0

2004

10.2

25.3

9.5

-

13.4

57

1

7

3

0

1

2005

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2006

20.5

26.8

11.0

-

13.4

32

0

4

2

0

0

2007

19.8

26.3

10.2

-

13.5

37

4

2

4

0

0

2008

20.3

26.6

10.5

-

14.2

35

0

1

0

0

0

2009

20.7

26.9

10.4

-

13.4

35

2

2

0

0

1

2010

20.0

26.7

9.3

-

13.7

42

2

0

0

0

0

2011

21.3

28.2

-

-

14.0

15

2

0

0

0

0

2012

21.0

27.7

10.4

-

13.2

24

0

1

0

0

2

2013

19.2

25.9

9.6

-

12.6

37

3

0

3

0

0

2014

19.6

27.2

9.7

-

11.6

39

0

9

1

0

0

2015

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

If fields appear in the table with no values with the symbol (-) this only indicates that has not been realized any average, this happens if there is no enough data to compute.

In total rainfall value 0 (zero) may indicate that there has made such measurement and / or the weather station does not broadcast.

TuTiempo.net. (2014). Climate in Chihuahua. May 17, 2015, de TuTiempo Network, S.L Website: http://www.tutiempo.net/clima/ Cancun_International_Airport/765906.htm

This means that in 21 years, apparently the temperatures remain the same as you can see in the following graph:

May, 2015

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database Annual Average

Page 4

Maximum Annual Average

Minimum Annual Average

24

30

18

22.5

12

15

6

7.5

0

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Annual Precipitation (rain and/or snow melt) Total Snowy Days Total Days with Tornadoes or Funnel Clouds

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Wind Speed Annual Average (Km/h) Total Days with Storms Total Days with Hail

2015

0

Total Rainy Days Total Days with fog

2.2

60

1.65

45

1.1

30

0.55

15

0

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

May, 2015

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We need more data to discover if something has changed the las years. TuTiempo did not has data from past years but The State Program of Action Against Climate Change that aims to assess the current state of the effects of climate change in the state of Baja California has information from 60 researchers CICESE, the UABC and COLEF involved and is funded by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (SPA) of the State Government of Baja California. The following table contains maximum, minimum and annual average from 1949 to 2000: CLIMATE DATABASE NORTHWEST OF MEXICO PEACC-BC Year

Annual Average ºC

Maximum Annual Average ºC

Minimum Annual Annual Precipita Average tion mm ºC

1949

15.8

28.5

12.9

1950

14.7

29.4

1951

15.1

1952

Year

Annual Average ºC

Maximum Annual Average ºC

Minimum Annual Annual Precipita Average tion mm ºC

249

1975

10.6

29.9

7.7

212.3

11.3

293

1976

10.5

28.5

7.8

420.2

29.4

11.5

152.4

1977

11.5

30.4

8.5

347.7

14.3

28.2

10.8

260

1978

11.7

29.4

8.8

429.8

1953

13.6

28.7

10.3

159.2

1979

10.6

29.4

7.8

291.7

1954

14.9

29.2

11.5

255.1

1980

11.5

29.7

8.9

424.7

1955

14.1

28

10.7

249.2

1981

12.2

28.4

8.9

438.3

1956

14

28.9

10.8

126.5

1982

13.1

30.3

9.9

184.7

1957

15

28.7

11.9

234.5

1983

13.2

30.4

9.8

264.7

1958

14.7

27.4

12.1

507.7

1984

13.2

30

9.7

410.3

1959

14.2

27.8

11.2

241.7

1985

10.8

28.7

8

132.3

1960

13.9

28.1

10.8

271.8

1986

13.1

30.5

10

391.5

1961

12.7

28.6

10

253.8

1987

11.5

29.3

8.7

461.9

1962

12.8

29.4

10.2

264.6

1988

11.6

30.3

9

331.9

1963

13.6

28.4

11.2

360.7

1989

13

31.8

9.9

206.2

1964

12.9

27.3

10

252.2

1990

11.2

16.4

10.1

522

1965

14

28.4

11.1

220.4

1991

13

29.2

10.3

415.2

1966

13.1

27.5

10.8

268.5

1992

10.3

27.7

11.1

88.5

1967

13.4

28.2

10.8

253

1993

13.7

28.6

11.9

181.3

1968

13.9

27.7

11

378.5

1994

13.7

29.1

11.7

151.2

1969

13.9

28.6

11.2

217.2

1995

12.4

30.1

11.1

139.5

1970

13.2

27.9

10.6

306.4

1996

1.2

29.4

7.4

109.1

1971

13.2

28.3

10.6

358.6

1997

14.1

29.3

10.7

174.9

1972

13.6

28.7

10.9

439.3

1998

11.6

29.7

9.9

108.5

1973

11.8

28.9

8.7

318

1999

9.5

29.2

11

106.5

1974

12

30.1

8.8

472.5

2000

10.7

28.5

7.7

329.3

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

May, 2015

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Now we can see what has been happening and even predict the future. The following list studies the most important information that comes with the last graph: I.

Annual Average has decrease An annual average does not give us enough information to infer that Chihuahua is now cooler than in 1949. But speaks to us about a dramatic change in temperatures balance that existed 66 years ago.

II. Maximum Annual Average has increase We can appreciate that the extreme temperatures have change alarmingly because if you think about the future, the temperatures in 50 years are going to be very unsafe for humans and other leaving beings. In 1974 the highest temperature exceeded 30ºC, something that in twenty-five years did not happen.

III. Minimum Annual Average has decrease From 1949 to 1972, lowest temperatures had been 10ºC to almost 13ºC. The next year the lowest temperature was 8.7ºC, 1.3 degrees lower. From then, temperatures have remain from 7.7ºC to almost 12ºC in 1993.

As you can see, it is expected that hot seasons get hotter and cold months even cooler. Monthly we can se better these changes (Next page).

The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit We recently passed 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere; the status quo will take us up to 1,000 ppm, raising global average temperature (from a pre-industrial baseline) between 3.2 and 5.4 degrees Celsius. That will mean, according to a 2012 World Bank report, "extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise," the effects of which will be "tilted against many of the world's poorest regions," stalling or reversing decades of development work. "A 4°C warmer world can, and must be, avoided," said the World Bank president.

But that's where we're headed. It will take enormous effort just to avoid that fate. Holding temperature down under 2°C — the widely agreed upon target — would require an utterly unprecedented level of global mobilization and coordination, sustained over decades. There's no sign of that happening, or reason to think it's plausible anytime soon. And so, awful shit it is.

Nobody wants to say that. Why not? It might seem obvious — no one wants to hear it! — but there's a bit more to it than that. We'll return to the question in a minute, but first let's look at how this unsatisfying debate plays out in public.

The latest contretemps was sparked by a comment in Nature by Oliver Geden, an analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. In it, he made a simple argument. Politicians, he says, want good news. They want to hear that it is still possible to limit temperature to 2°C. Even more, they want to hear that they can do so while avoiding aggressive emission cuts in the near-term — say, until they're out of office.

Climate scientists, Geden says, feel pressure to provide the good news. They're worried that if they don't, if they come off as "alarmist" or hectoring, they will simply be ignored, boxed out of the debate. And so they construct models showing that it is possible to hit the 2°C target. The message is always, "We're running out of time; we've only got five or 10 years to turn things around, but we can do it if we put our minds to it.”

That was the message in 1990, in 2000, in 2010. How can we still have five or 10 years left? The answer, Geden says, is that scientists are baking increasingly unrealistic assumptions into their models.

Extract from “The awful truth about Climate Change no one wants to admit” David Roberts. (May 15, 2015). The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit. May 17, 2015, de Vox.com Website: http://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/ truth-climate-change

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

26

January September

February Octuber

May, 2015

March November

April December

Page 7

May

June

July

August 50

19.5

37.5

13

25

6.5

12.5

0

1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

0

FUTURE TEMPERATURES The emissions scenarios that project the concentrations of greenhouse gases contemplate different hypothesis about social-economic development on the planet. These scenarios are classified in:

• A1B: Medium-High Emissions: Fast regional economic development with the introduction of new and efficient technologies. There is a balance in the use of fossil fuels and renewable ones.

• A2: High Emissions: Constant population grow, economic development regionally oriented, and the technological develop is very slow.

• B1: Medium-Low Emissions: Same global population and change in economic structures. Use of efficient energies and global solutions for economics, the society and the sustainable environment.

• B2: Low Emissions: Local economics solutions, the society and the sustainable enviroment. Oriented to environmental protection and social equality to focus on local and regional levels.

Precipitation

Temperatures

SEMARNAT. (2009). Proyecciones de Clima. May 18, 2015, de INECC Website: http://www2.inecc.gob.mx/cclimatico/edo_sector/estados/futuro_chihuahua.html

Climate Change in Chihuahua Database

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About biodiversity of Mexico and Chihuahua, is particularly threatened by climate change that has affected the world in recent years. The climate crisis in Chihuahua, state with the largest forest area of the country, has effects on several threatening phenomena, as has been the large increase of forest fires. It has a devastating impact on plants and animals. The Organization of Forest Producers and institutions of the Federation and the state, ensured that the effects caused by the fires remained below the national average, said the director of Forestry Development and Ministry of Rural Development Oscar Estrada Murrieta.

Then came the hard frosts in February and the drought that has afflicted far planting thousands of fields, forests and grasslands. This has already begun to generate a change that is permanent in Chihuahua flora and fauna.

The natural history and scientific studies have taught us that there have been such changes for millennia on the planet, where the strongest animals are those that adapt and evolve in these situations and not become extinct.

To this we must add the indiscriminate hunting of species by man and the destruction of ecosystems, contributing to the extinction of thousands of species around the world.

Endangered species as a natural consequence and the pressure of human: The temperature range and quantity of rainfall that appeared in natural cycles hastt been modified, It has moved to the greenhouse effect gas, and the rotation of the earth and its inclination, which presents its effects anywhere in the world, so that all living organisms are affected and we must adapt, says José Treviño Fernández, chief of the National Forestry Commission.

In periods of drought like the one we currently live, where the temperature rises to half a degree Celsius, it may seem little, but many animals don't recienten to such point , so they change their periods of reproduction, incubation and pregnancy. There are some species that are more sensitive to these changes; many of these are listed on the Official Mexican Standard, and considers 2000 584 species classified into four categories: Extinct, Endangered, Threatened and subject to special protection.

Chihuahua biodiversity is very rich, as it owns 25% of the total in the country. However, Chihuahua has 41 extinct species, between plants and animals. In the state the imperial woodpecker and grizzly bear are considered extinct. The Mexican wolf, the antelope, the peregrine falcon, golden eagle, rattlesnake and Thickbilled Parrot, among others, are endangered species . These species are diminished their population because their habitat is affected as a result of the presence of man.

Moreover also they include effects on the population. The population has increased along with the level of poverty, apart cup death is increased both by frost as torrential rains, so it's the latter, households in the state are affected.

Sector

Vulnerability

Reference

WATER

The state will meet with very heavy pressure situation (60-80%) of water resources by 2025.

Currently, little rainfall was recorded and has a water deficit condition.

INE-SEMARNAT, 2006. Third Communication about Climate Change.

URBAN CENTERS

Climate changes will occur in a context of their own regions with population growth, they can exacerbate the effects of climate change. The vulnerability is then given by high population concentration, industrialization, increase in motor vehicles and increased population with high levels of poverty.

Aguilar G. 1995. México ante Cambio Climático.

Second Study of Paris, Mexico. SEMARNAPUNAM-US Country Studies.

AGRICULTURE

The effects of drought are considered serious in agriculture and livestock, causing total or partial loss of production.

Water National Commission, 2003. Regional Hydraulic Program 2002-2006. VI Region Río Bravo, México.

DROUGHT

Draught periods are extensive and even for the months of July and September, wich correspond to the rainy season. Drought results generate unemployment, abandonment of land, migration and conflicts between water users. Currently, we are living a drought that began in 1993.

Water National Commission, 2003. Regional Hydraulic Program 2002-2006. VI Region Río Bravo, México.

VEGETATION

Deforestation caused by fires, droughts and changing land use reduce the precipitations.

Vegetation types most affected by climate.

Water National Commission, 2003. Regional Hydraulic Program 2002-2006. VI Region Río Bravo, México.

Omnia. (2011). Sufre ecosistema de Chihuahua daño irreversible. May 16, 2015, de Omnia Website: http://www.omnia.com.mx/noticias/ sufre-ecosistema-de-chihuahua-dano-irreversible/