Is China leading the next scramble for Africa?

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To be able to explain how China is leading another ‘Scramble for Africa’ one must understand what the ‘Scramble for Africa’ was. During a period (approximately) between 1884 and 1914 the Berlin (or Congo) conference was held. This was where some European powers portioned Africa’s previously undiscovered land for themselves. Such was their greed; it was thought to be diplomatic when they decided to not argue over who got which land since there was apparently plenty to go around. Yet, indigenous Africans were not given a voice and as a result ethnic groups were divided. For example, in the Horn of Africa the powers split Somalis into French, British, Italian and Ethiopian Somalia. Furthermore, the improvised ‘straight line’ borders that are in Africa show the haste at which Africa was divided. The key point is that the Europeans cared primarily about economic opportunity, so where people may have led pastoral or nomadic lifestyles, they were now confined to smaller areas due to the divisions. Tribes that previously led lifestyles that used vast quantities of land were now forced to compete for resources with other people kept close to borders.

Currently, Africa is the fastest urbanising region in the world. The region has a larger volume of rural to urban migration than India and China and by 2050 the population is forecast to double. Moreover, 80% of this projected growth is going to happen in urban areas with an approximate increase of 1.3 billion to the urban headcount. The disadvantage of this is the shortterm sprawl of people is areas such as the Makoko slum in Nigeria, where a vast number of people live on houses resting on stilts. This waterfront slum had a population between 150,000 – 250,000 in 2014 and currently the figure is not known, but the slum is very visible from the Third mainland bridge and the population would have at least doubled since then. However, the International Monetary Fund has named Africa as the world’s fastest growing region, and it is predicted to become a $5 trillion dollar economy. This is partially a result of the Chinese involvement in Africa.

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The founder of MORE architecture Daan Roggeveen (a firm in Amsterdam) said that “Right now you could say that any big project in African cities that is higher than 3 floors or roads that are longer than 3 kilometres are most likely built and engineered by the Chinese.” He made quite a bold statement about Africa’s economic position, yet why would China be involved in the first place? When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) first came to power in 1949, it was not supported by other nations. Subsequently the United States cut diplomatic ties with Mao Zedong’s government since the previous Kuomintang (KMT) had been forced out of government. After this Mao drove China into the ground with the “Great Leap Forward” since the centralised economic system he enforced did not allow for a competitive market or efficient pricing in the Chinese economy, and this was worsened by the Communism and Socialism that was adopted by the government. However, after Deng Xiaoping came into power, the Chinese economy boomed since he relaxed some of the rules around material wealth and personal freedom. Years later, when China was already now in a good economic position, President Xi Jinping started investing in China to boost their already phenomenal growth. They did this through extensive political lobbying and one by one each country started giving confidence to the People’s Republic, and to reward their support China paid in concrete and steel by building extensive infrastructure. The Belt and Road Initiative was a development strategy created by Xi Jinping and was adopted in 2013, where he invested in 70 different countries, a substantial portion of which were in Africa. According to Xi Jinping it is the “greatest” part of the CCP, and it allows him to have a more prominent role in global affairs. It is the more modern Silk Road, referring to overland road and rail routes through Central Asia and Indo-Pacific Sea routes. It allows China to insert copious quantities of resources to fuel the large amount of infrastructure being built in Africa and other countries. It has helped create super-ports, skyscrapers, railroads, and airports as well as much more. In Africa it is successful, as China is Africa’s biggest trade partner, with SinoAfrican trade making over $200 billion annually. Furthermore, China has approximately

10,000 firms operating in Africa at any one time and since 2005 the value of Chinese businesses has gone up to $2 trillion. Recently China has invested another $1 billion into the Belt and Road fund as well as gifting a $60 billion aid package to Africa.

It is expected that the trade ties will remain robust for years to come. Examples of projects that China have funded are the NairobiMombasa railway and the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railways

The significance of these is that other nations are losing their grip on African investment, with Europe reducing their involvement from 44% to 34% and America reducing their involvement from 24% to 6.7%, leaving China to become the primary investor in Africa.

But is this secure? Possibly not. African governments are dreaming themselves into vast amounts of infrastructure induced debt. The Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway cost Ethiopia a quarter of its annual budget in 2016. Furthermore, Nigeria needed to renegotiate their deal with China as they were simply unable to pay. Kenya’s 80% Chinese financed railway from Mombasa to Nairobi has gone 4 times over budget – costing upwards of 6% of their GDP. A startling statistic is that the International Monetary Fund found that China owned more than 15% of Africa’s external debt. China is operating new form colonialism, where they are debt trapping Africa for economic gain. The worst part is that African nations do need the infrastructure. President Xi Jinping said, “inadequate infrastructure is believed to be the biggest bottleneck to Africa’s development,” and he is mostly correct.

Therefore, China is leading the second scramble for Africa, essentially extracting resources like the Europeans did in the past but in a much more subtle way.

References: Colonial Borders in Africa: Improper Design and its Impact on African Borderland Communities | Africa Up Close (wilsoncenter.org) What China Is Really Up To In Africa (forbes.com) Explainer: Why Did The Great Leap Forward Fail - Profolus Image Source: https://images.theconversation.com/files/335711/original/file-20200518-83397-ckplvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format& w=926&fit=clip