ACA Meeting Ghana - Apr 2007 Global Cashew Scenario
West Africa -- leading RCN producer . . . World Cashew Production 2007 Origin
Production (MT ‘000)
IMP/EXP (MT ‘000)
Production (‘000 ctn)
Domestic (‘000 ctn)
Export (‘000 ctn)
South (Sept-Jan) of Prev. Yr
Brazil
295
0
2,950
(350)
2,600
E. Africa
152
(97)
550
(15)
535
Indonesia+Combo
115
(103)
120
0
120
India
320
555
8,750
(4,000)
4,750
Vietnam
280
100
3,800
(40)
3,760
W. Africa
476
(455)
210
(15)
195
1,638
0
16,380
dia, dia, Thailand
North Feb-June
TOTAL Source: Trade
(4,420) 11,960
North America continues to be the Major consumer
USA 35% India 22% Europe : 20% Japan/Australia/China : 10% Middle East / Others : 13%
Source: Trade
Most popular tree nut in Snack Category but… U.S. Snack Nut Sales 50% 45%
Value % US Snack Nut Sales
40%
Quantity %
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
Source: AC Nielsen’s data ending April 29, 2006
Other
Pecans
Macs
Seeds
Almonds
Trial Mix
Pistachios
Mixed Nuts
Cashews
Peanuts
0%
…cashew growth rate went negative since Oct 05 Snack Category Growth: Cashews vs Almonds Feb’05-Apr’06
50
Cashew Snack Demand
Almond Snack Demand
30 20 10 0
Source: AC Nielsen Last 52 wks
A p r-0 6
M a r-0 6
F e b -0 6
J a n -0 6
D e c -0 5
N o v -0 5
O c t-0 5
S e p -0 5
A u g -0 5
J u l-0 5
J u n -0 5
M a y -0 5
A p r-0 5
M a r-0 5
-10 F e b -0 5
% Change vs PY
40
Falling Cashew prices and demand Cashew Snack Category Growth vs Market Price $2.70
20
$2.60 $2.50
10 $2.40 Cashew Snack Demand
5
$2.30 0 $2.20 -5
$2.10
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
$2.00 Mar-05
-10
Dollars Per LB
W320 Price Lagged 6 months
Feb-05
% Change vs PY
15
What does this mean for Cashews
Promote cashews as a healthy snack. Customers want HACCP certified processing facilities / traceable cashews - like in Almonds. Promote local consumption of cashews. Promote local processing of cashews. Find new uses for cashews and new markets.
What does this mean for Africa ?
Lot of catching up to do in processing Tanzania & Mozambique leading the pack : Progressive Government
policies Active government / industry interface (PPP)
Reduce dependence on India / Vietnam Strive for sustainability – production of RCN Develop expertise/scale - processing Need for Global profile building - marketing
Advantages of Processing in Africa
Local Value addition to the tune of Usd 300/400 Usd pmt. ( on 200,000 Mts = Usd 70 million.
Employment generation = 38 workers per 100 Mt of Raw Cashew processed ( 200,000 Mts = 76,000 workers)
Providing employment and empowerment to women in rural areas (90% of the cashew factory workers are women)
Creation of Rural & semi urban employment - thereby preventing migration from rural areas to urban areas.
Wages disbursed for this processing volume = Usd 90,000 /day or Usd 2.16 m / month or Usd 26 m / year.
Promotion of Ancillary Industries like :
Equipment workshops Transport companies Carton / packaging material factories Food Stalls Shell cake / oil cake
Why Processing has not taken off in Africa - I
High Investment
Huge Working capital requirement – raw cashews to be carried for 9 months.
Long gestation period.
High labor cost as compared to India / Vietnam.
Huge initial learning costs – more brokens – value loss. Training of workers – low productivity A worker takes 2/3 years to reach India/Vietnam skill level. No trained supervisory manpower available
Labor laws treat processing as normal industry, though it is seasonal.
Buying sufficient processable RCN of good quality.
Why Processing has not taken off in Africa - II
Quality and Price risk : Storage of RCN for 9 months.
Lack of govt. support / legislation to overcome initial gestation period losses.
Developing a market / image for African kernels
Difficult to sell small lots of kernels.
Lack of local market for lower / off grades.
Thank You