ACA Meeting Benin - Sep 2006 Global Cashew Scenario
Source: Trade
West Africa -- leading RCN producer . . . World Cashew Production 2005 Origin
Production (MT ‘000)
IMP/EXP (MT ‘000)
Production (‘000 ctn)
Domestic (‘000 ctn)
Export (‘000 ctn)
South (Sept-Jan) of Prev. Yr
Brazil
245
0
2,450
(200)
2,250
E. Africa
165
(140)
250
0
250
Indonesia+Combo
115
(110)
50
0
50
India
360
580
9,400
(4,000)
5,400
Vietnam
300
85
3,850
(40)
3,810
W. Africa
425
(415)
100
0
100
1,610
0
16,100
dia, dia, Thailand
North Feb-June
TOTAL Source: Trade
(4,240) 11,860
…with India leading in kernel production. World Cashew Production 2006 Origin
Production (MT ‘000)
IMP/EXP (MT ‘000)
Production (‘000 ctn)
Domestic (‘000 ctn)
Export (‘000 ctn)
South (Sept-Jan) of Prev. Yr
Brazil
245
0
2,450
(200)
2,250
E. Africa
170
(140)
300
0
300
Indonesia +
115
(110)
50
0
50
India
360
584
9,440
(3,800)
5,640
Vietnam
300
90
3,900
(40)
3,860
W. Africa
435
(424)
110
0
110
1,625
0
16,250 (4,040)
12,210
North (Feb-Jun)
TOTAL Source: Trade
’06 vs ’05 exports up 2%- 3%.
N.A. continues to be the major user World Cashew Usage Asia / Other 21% North America 50%
Europe 29% Source: Trade
Most popular tree nut in Snack Category but‌ U.S. Snack Nut Sales 50% 45%
Value % US Snack Nut Sales
40%
Quantity %
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
Source: AC Nielsen Last 52 wks ending April 29, 2006
Other
Pecans
Macs
Seeds
Almonds
Trial Mix
Pistachios
Mixed Nuts
Cashews
Peanuts
0%
…cashew growth rate went negative Oct’05 Snack Category Growth: Cashews vs Almonds Feb’05-Apr’06
50
Cashew Snack Demand
Almond Snack Demand
30 20 10 0
Source: AC Nielsen Last 52 wks
A p r-0 6
M a r-0 6
F e b -0 6
J a n -0 6
D e c -0 5
N o v -0 5
O c t-0 5
S e p -0 5
A u g -0 5
J u l-0 5
J u n -0 5
M a y -0 5
A p r-0 5
M a r-0 5
-10 F e b -0 5
% Change vs PY
40
Even with record prices, almond demand is still strong‌ Almond Snack Category Growth vs Market Price 45
$4.50
40
BS Price Lagged 6 months
$3.50
30 $3.00 25 $2.50
20
Source: AC Nielsen Last 52 wks
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
$2.00 Mar-05
15 Feb-05
% Change vs PY
35
Dollars Per LB
$4.00
Almond Snack Demand
…while cashew prices and demand decreased Cashew Snack Category Growth vs Market Price $2.70
20
$2.60 $2.50
10 $2.40 Cashew Snack Demand
5
$2.30 0 $2.20 -5
$2.10
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
$2.00 Mar-05
-10
Dollars Per LB
W320 Price Lagged 6 months
Feb-05
% Change vs PY
15
Thank You