Presentation of the
Cashew Working Group XV World Tree Nut Congress, Berlin, May 19, 2005
Hari Nair David Rosenblatt John Petersen Ashok Krishen
Western India Cashew Co, India The Richard Franco Agency, USA Kraft Foods, USA Olam International, Singapore
World Cashew Supply 2004 Origin
Production IMP/EXP (MT ‘000) (MT ‘000)
Production Dom Cons Export (‘000 ctn.) (‘000 ctn.) (‘000 ctn.)
South (Sept-Jan) of Prev. year
Brazil E. Africa Indonesia +
265 150 85
0 (145) (80)
350 300 390 1,540
560 55 (390) 0
2,650 50 50
(400) 0 0
2,250 50 50
North (Feb-June)
India Vietnam W. Africa TOTAL
9,100 (3,740) 5,360 3,550 (50) 3,500 0 0 0 15,400 (4,290) 11,210
The 2003 Crop was: 1,180 K MT Last year’s Crop Estimate in May was: 1,275 K MT The extra growth came from West Africa and Vietnam.
World Cashew Supply 2005 Origin
Production (MT ‘000)
IMP/EXP (MT ‘000)
Production Domestic Export (‘000 ctn.) (‘000 ctn.) (‘000 ctn.)
South (Sept-Jan) of Prev. year
Brazil E. Africa
245 165
0 (160)
2,450 50
(200) 0
2,250 50
Indonesia +
115
(110)
50
0
50
India Vietnam
360 300
600 90
9,600 3,900
(4,000) (40)
5,600 3,860
W. Africa
425
(420)
50
0
50
1,610
0
North Feb-June
TOTAL
16,100 (4,240) 11,860
Estimates for South Crop and Projections for North Crop. Projected Growth in 05: 70,000 MT (4.5%). Difficult to predict Vietnamese and West African crops.
World Cashew Crop – (In Shell) Origin Brazil
2004 (MT ‘000)
2005 (MT ‘000)
265
245
Kenya + Madagascar
10
10
Mozambique
60
70
Tanzania
80
85
Indonesia + (All Others)
85
115
India
350
360
Vietnam
300
300
94
100
IVC + Ghana + Burkina Faso
186
205
Guinea + Bissau + Gambia + Senegal
110
120
1540
1610
Benin + Nigeria
G. TOTAL
Increase of 45 already from the South Crops. Probable increase of 25 from North Crops, from an increased base.
Diverse Supply Six major cashew growing regions. More than 30 climatic sub-regions. Less susceptible to localized climatic events. Growers mostly have marginal holdings. Multi-link RCN supply channels with low funding. Low chance of supply management thru stocking. Regular supply of shelled nuts from India and Vietnam, independent of local crop season. Stocking required before consumption season. Non-stocking led to lost consumption in 2003 & early 2004 despite stocks at origins.
A Price-stable Tree Nut Annual High and Low prices of W320 FOB NY
Year
Volatility
95
20.0%
96
11.3%
97
6.1%
98
15.9%
99
22.2%
00
24.1%
01
23.6%
02
21.4%
03
17.5%
04
23.7%
3.5 3.2
3 2.75
2.65
High 2.45
2.5 2 2.2
2.35
2.3
2.62
2.7
2.65
2.2
2.49 2.23
2.1
2
2
Low
2.05
1.5
1.68
1.65
1.65
1 0.5 95
96
97
98
99
0
1
2
3
4
Source: CEPCI up to 00 and Trade for 01-04.
Highest yearly volatility in 10 years only 24%. Still trading at Long-term average price levels.
Change/Annual High
Import Growth has been robust 330
Growth in Cashew Imports +21% From India, Vietnam & Brazil
280
+13 %
TOTAL
Million Kgs
230
180
+27%
USA/Canada
+ 10%
130
+25% Europe
+9%
80
Mid-East/China/F.East +25%
30
2002
2003
+8%
2004
2005
Last year’s growth was not at the expense of consumption elsewhere. Source: Country Exports from “Highlights of the Cashew Industry”, Red River Foods, Inc. Mar 05
Cashew Economics Cashew yields average about 500 Kg per Acre, about 120 Kg of kernels. Average Farm is below 3 Acres. A Cashew farming family earns $900-$1200 pa at current farm-gate prices ($600-$800 PMT). Shipping costs in Raw Cashews is substantial. Processing: 7 Man-days per ctn. Incl Blanching.
Cashew Economics Cashew growing region
Per Capita Income
West Africa
$
437
India
$
Vietnam
$
Brazil
Consuming Countries
Per Capita Income
USA
$ 37,870
540
Europe
$ 22,810
480
Japan
$ 34,180
$ 2720
Australia
$ 21,950
East Africa
$
275
UAE
$ 25,300
Indonesia
$
810
Saudi Arabia
$ 9,240
TOTAL
$
877
India
$
Source: Per Capita Income from World Bank Country Data 2003 Weighted region-wise based on cashew crop size.
540
Cashew Economics A village in Guinea-Bissau’s cashew growing region.
• Guinea-Bissau had a PCI of $140 in 03, down from $150 in ‘99 • Cashews are 90% of GB’s exports. • PCI dropped, despite huge growth in cashew tonnage. Competitive Discounting affects the lives of very poor people.
Promoting Cashews Awareness: Most known tree-nut in the USA Nut that first comes to mind 40 35% 33%
32%
30
33%
Peanuts
29%
24%
25%
23%
23%
23%
CASHEWS
20 16%
15% 13%
10
16% 13% 12%
9%
9%
11%
Pecans
9%
0 1998
1999
2001
Almonds
2003
2004
Source: Almond Board 2004: Consumer AAU Top-line
Promoting Cashews Nut that is preferred the most 40%
34%
35%
34%
33%
34%
31%
CASHEWS
30%
20% 14%
10%
10% 7%
6%
10%
11% 9%
14%
17% Peanuts 15%
Almonds
11%
12%
7%
9%
7% 5%
6%
6%
Walnuts
0% 1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2004
Source: Almond Board 2004: Consumer AAU Top-line
Preference: The most preferred nut, even without generic promotion.
Promoting Cashews
Sales: Cashews leads tree-nuts in the Snack Category 50% 45%
Value % US Snack Nut Sales
40%
Quantity %
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
Source: AC Nielsen Last 52 wks ending March 12, 2005
Other
Pecans
Macs
Seeds
Almonds
Trial Mix
Pistachios
Mixed Nuts
Cashews
Peanuts
0%
Health & Cashews Health is the No. 1 platform for nut sales. Cashews are not getting any health press. Growth was courtesy other nuts’ efforts. People who recalled a Positive Health Story About Nuts 34% Almonds
27 % Nuts (general)
No 47%
Yes 52%
15% Walnuts 14% Peanuts 6% Macadamias 3% Pistachios 3% Pecans
3% Cashews 6 % Other
Source: Almond Board AA&U 2004
Health and Cashews Which Health Attribute is the most Important? (Aspirational)
30% 20% 10%
Source: Almond Board AA&U 2004
High in vitamin E
High in fiber
High in protein
Good energy source
Low in sat fat
No cholesterol
Maintain weight
0%
Weight Maintenance & Gen Health 61
70 51
49 44
50
44
60
65
72
80
76
Total Fat in 100 g of nuts
40 Macadamias
Pecans
Walnuts
Hazelnuts
Almonds
Peanuts
Pistachios
Cashews
30
Source: USDA Nutrient Database for Std. Reference. Release: 17(2004)
Cashews have the lowest fat. Cashews, like other nuts, have no Cholesterol. Cashews missed US Heart-health claim by just 0.164 g / Oz.
Performance Nutrition Cashews make ideal post workout snacks. Kelly Holmes
Double Olympic Gold Medalist in the 800m and 1500m at Athens
at the age of 34. “Cashew
nuts are my little secret…” says Kelly. The Daily Mirror, UK
“Kelly Holmes claimed the nuts helped to boost her powers of recovery so that her body was well prepared for its next test of speed and endurance.” The Times, UK Sept 10, 04
Performance Nutrition
13
14
Walnuts
Macadamias
14
16
Peanuts
Pecans
17
Almonds
Pistachios
10
Cashews
20
Hazelnuts
20
30
28
30
Carbohydrate in 100g of Nuts
Source: USDA Nutrient Database for Std. Reference. Release: 17(2004)
Cashews have Low Glycemic Carbohydrates that refuel the body’s energy store over a period of time. Glycemic Index of Salted Cashews = 22. Source: University of Sydney
Nutritional Profile Cashews, Raw Nutrient
0.25 cup
196.60 calories
Amount
DV (%)
Nutrient Density
Food Rating
Copper
0.76 mg
30.4
3.1
good
Magnesium
89.05 mg
27.8
2.9
good
Phosphorus
167.83 mg
24.0
2.5
good
Tryptophan
0.07 g
21.9
2.3
good
Zinc
1.92 mg
16.0
1.7
good
Biotin
4.45 mcg
14.8
1.5
good
Source: CEPCI (Cashew Journal Vol. XXV No.2), quoting www.whfoods.com
Health in a Nut-shell Weight Management Lowest Fat among tree-nuts. No Cholesterol. Healthy Fat & good nutrient profile like other nuts. Good source of Vit B – Biotin, Vit. K. Performance Nutrition Directly available energy – Low G.I. Carbs. High Protein like other nuts. High Phosphorus, Magnesium & Iron – for bones
3
6
3.8 2.95
2.75
4 2.65
US$ per lbs
5
5.3
Current prices 4.6
6
5
Price & Availability
Macadamias
Pecans
Brazils
Hazels
Almonds
Pistachios
Walnuts
1
Cashews
2
Source: Trade
The Most Favorite Nut is now the Least Expensive. Availability is good and growing.
Take-aways. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Fastest Growing tree-nut – available. Socially “correct” to promote. Diverse crop-areas – reasonable prices. Huge intrinsic preference. Safe bet to promote on health. Weight Management – Lowest Fat. Performance Nutrition – Low Glycemic Energy.
Cashews can profitably extend your growth-story.
Thank You