Role Final Report Haonan Yan 5320607 H.Yan-2@student.tudelft.nl AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development 29/06/2021
Word count: 1,1894
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
PREFACE
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Urban Development is an organic process in which Real Estate Developers play a pivotal role. According to Heurkens and Hobma (2014), in The Netherlands, there is a trend in Urban Development towards private sector-led initiatives. In that sense, property developers are taking a leading role where local authorities are adopting a facilitating role in managing the development of an urban area, based on a formal publicprivate organizational role division. Within this urban development framework, it is clear that shaping successful places is an integral task that requires the collaboration of all stakeholders involved. This report summarises the second part of the urban redevelopment game course from a developer’s perspective. In the second part, a project team formed by the municipality, market parties, and advisors worked jointly on the North-Binckhorst redevelopment project. As developer B (RealInvest) in this game, the role of the developer will be detailed explanations as well as its relationship with other actors. Both redevelopment process, design result and product evaluation will be described.
ABSTRACT
The main research question of this redevelopment report is: How to transform a former industrial site into a sustainable mixed-use neighbourhood? The question is answered by the four chapters: The first chapter describes the preparation phase, in which the role of developer B is explained. Also, location analysis and market analysis are presented in this first part. The preparation part is the outcome of both individual and group work. The second chapter presents the negotiation process and results from the project team. Conflict and collaboration can be seen in this chapter. The second chapter is the outcome from developer B. Following is the elaboration chapter, which is produced as a group part by the project team. The project details are further elaborated in this part. The final part is the evaluation and reflection part. The 5P model of urban development is used as a tool to assess the process and product of this redevelopment game.
CONTENT Preface Abstract
Chapter 1 - Preparation phase
1.1 General role study 1.2 Specific role study 1.3 Real estate trends and the future of real estate 1.4 Development strategy 1.5 Negotiation strategy
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4 4 15 16 16
Chapter 2 - Negotiation phase
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Chapter 3 - Elaboration phase
26
Chapter 4 - Evaluation and reflection
39
2.1 Negotiation process 2.2 Negotiation result 2.3 Financial feasibility
3.1 Values 3.2 Ambitions 3.3 Target Groups 3.4 Spatial plan 3.5 AVR 3.6 Collaboration model 3.7 Implementation 3.8 Feasibility
18 21 25 28 28 29 30 34 35 35 37
Reference
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Appendix 1 - Real estate prices Appendix 2 - Land prices Appendix 3 - Contracts Appendix 4 - Calculations
44 46 48 52
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
CHAPTER 1 – PREPARATION PHASE (Individual + group product)
In the Urban (re)developermnt Game of North Binckhorst area, me as Developer B is defined as a Dutch investment company that engaged in property development and financial investment. Example companies that can be referred to are BPD, Amvest and Egeria. This chapter will first provide an overview of developer B’s role in general and then go to the specific role description and analysis of RealInvest Company that operates in the Binckhorst redevelopment game.
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
1.1 General role study In general, developer B access the real estate market and focus on the long-term return of the property. The revenue of developer B usually combines housing price appreciation and rental income (Bofah, n.d.). It is not often for developer B to be directly involved in the design details and construction. Instead, developer B usually provide building funds, buy and hold properties for cash flow and invest in a consolidated area. The general objectives of developer B are: 1. Increase the attractiveness of the real estate portfolios 2. Improve long-term investment return 3. Take social responsibility for future-proof, sustainable, inclusive living 4. Stimulate long-term collaborative partnership There are many working methods available for real estate developer to invest in urban projects. The most commonly used ones are (Oaktree Insights, 2016): Real estate investment trust (REITs): the developer invest in either equity or debt and must distribute at least 90% of taxable income in the form of dividends each year. Equity REITs applies to companies that own and operate the building, usually office buildings, retail centres and industrial properties, while mortgage REITs are suitable for residential development and sale-leasebacks. Direct real estate investment: this method includes the purchase of property that require an in-depth understanding of the target market and local regulations. -
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Private real estate investment funds: this method
enables the developers to invest through commingled private investment funds. Funds will gather the funds of multiple investors to invest by specific guidelines, which vary depending on the investment strategy of a particular fund. Real estate development is a high risk and high return financial activity. Before entering into any development, the development risk should be taken into serious account. A great amount of capital and debt from the bank is needed for real estate development. Usually, the real estate project will take years to complete, which means developers cannot make an immediate profit or cover the initial investment until years. Also, the future return will be influenced by all sorts of situation, for example, economic downturns and the Covid-19 pandemic. The decreased sell price and rental price under unsatisfying condition would greatly affect the development profit margin. 1.2 Specific role study 1.2.1 Company profile RealInvest Company is the developer B in this urban redevelopment game. RealInvest is one of the biggest real estate investors in the Netherlands that owns several plots in the Binckhorst. The mission of the company is: “Maintain long-term stable returns by investing in sustainable mixed-use neighbourhoods that foster inclusive communities”. RealInvest mostly focuses on residential, commercial and mixed-use development in the urban area. We believe that by focusing on societal returns in the locality of our investment, we can then guarantee our long term financial performance in the future. Also, we established long-term alliances with our stakeholders and form a responsible organisation in a joint effort. The advantages and disadvantages of RealInvest are described in the SWOT analysis (Figure 1.1).
Figure 1.1 SWOT analysis of RealInvest (own illustration)
1.2.2 Stakeholder relationship In the Binckhorst redevelopment project, there are mainly four types of actors involved, namely: - Municipality of The Hague: Land department, Urban planning department, Economic affairs. - Advisors: Process manager, Circular economy manager, Urban designer, Law advisor - Market players: Developer A, Developer B (RealInvest), Housing associations, Financial institutions, Investment funds Social actors: Local residents, Local companies As shown in Figure 1.2, RealInvest will establish a stronger relationship with the land department, urban planning department, investment funds, financial institutions and developer A, who also have higher power and interest
in the Binckhorst project (Figure 1.3). Also, as developer B need active communication with each party, a good relationship with the process manager serves as a basis to make connection and links. In summary, we want to form a strong collaboration with the public actors to achieve technical feasibility, and cooperate with the advisors to improve the quality and performance of the project. For other market players, the relationship would be both cooperative and competitive. In this game, RealInvest would have a closer relationship with developer A than the housing association, because both developers should work at the same time and in the same area to generate an integrated and reasonable plan. We also desire social involvement and satisfaction from the locals, which is one of the company’s vision to focus on the experience of end-users.
Left: Fig 1.2 Stakeholder relationship of RealInvest (own illustration based on group presentation) Right: Fig 1.3 Power Interest Matrix (own illustration based on group presentation)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
1.2.3 Location analysis Location and history
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
The Binckhorst area is located in the southeast of The Hague centre (Figure 1.4). It used to be an industrial site with a massive productive industry. However, Binckhorst became less attractive in recent decades due to pollution and unsatisfied planning. In 2007, The municipality of The Hague had planned to make a new plan to stimulate the economic growth in Binckhorst, however, the financial crisis in 2008 forced the parties to terminate the original plan. Only until recent years, the development of Binckhorst was put on the agenda again (Figure 1.6). In this redevelopment game, only the North Binckhorst area will be developed (Figure 1.5).
Figure 1.6 History timeline (own illustration)
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Fig 1.4 Location of the Binckhorst (Own illustration)
Fig 1.5 Development area of North Binckhorst (Own illustration)
Environmental study As a former industrial site, the soil and noise pollution on the site should be considered in the early planning phase. According to Figure 1.7 and Figure 1.8, the soil pollution is concentrated on the Northeast side of the North Binckhorst area. Some of the pollutions has already been remediated, but there also remain some plots with highly polluted land. Besides, as Binckhorst located at the intersection of two main traffic roads, noise pollution is serious alongside the traffic lines (Figure 1.9). These plots with high soil and noise pollution should not be developed Soil pollution - possibly polluted
into large residential communities. Otherwise, the building should be installed with good acoustic insulation and only be built after the soil is remediated. Valuable building Since Binckhorst has a long industrial history, there are many factory buildings remain located in Binckhorst. Most of them are low rise buildings designed specifically for production use. However, in North Binckhorst, there are several national monuments, characteristic buildings and municipal monuments (Figure 1.10) that need to be preserved in future development. RealInvest considers those valuable buildings to be an opportunity to create new use-value on the basis of maintaining the original industrial DNA (Figure 1.11).
(Possibly) highly polluted Remediation
Figure 1.7 Soil pollution – possibly polluted (Group illustration)
Soil pollution - Identified and addressed
Figure 1.10 Valuable building in Binckhorst (Brightspace, 2021) Pollution known through previous research Remediation
Figure 1.8 Soil pollution – identified and addressed (Group illustration)
Noise pollution - train traffic
50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 >= 70 Noise in dB
Figure 1.9 Noise pollution – train traffic (Group illustration)
Figure 1.11 Photos of valuable buildings (Brightspace, 2021)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Accessibility
Land Ownership
In general, Binckhorst is better connected with other cities such as Amsterdam and Rotterdam by highways and train than with the local transportation in The Hague (Table 1.1). Currently, there is only limited public transport available within the area. Binckhorst is surrounded by three different train stations within 10 minutes of bike distance. However, Binckhorst currently lacks infrastructure for bikes and pedestrians which makes it difficult for citizens to access. The current area is largely messy and petrified which give a less satisfying experience for cycling and walking (Figure 1.12 & 1.13). The recent constructions in Supernovaweg, Verlengde Melkwegstraat, Fokkerhaven and Poolsterhaven form a first step towards a more accessible Binckhorst. In the future, the arrival of Rotteramsebaan and other transportation facilities will also boost the accessibility of the area.
The ownership of plots in the North Binckhorst is relatively complicated. As shown in Figure 1.15, the majority of plots are owned by the municipality. Also, many plots are owned by other parties who are not involved in this redevelopment game. Developer B only own a smaller ratio of plots comparing to the other parties (Figure 1.14). Besides, those plots are separated from each other, which makes it more challenging to form an integrated development plan.
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
In the Dutch system, there are three types of tenure (Table 1.2). The first and most traditional one is full ownership, this modality is very advantageous for the developer since, in addition to the profit generated by the Net Development Value (NDV), you can have access to the profit generated by the Land value. Besides, there are the leaseholds, which are two: perpetual and temporary. The perpetual is usually considered as a safer tenure since the tenant has the possibility of indefinitely renewing the leasehold. The temporary leasehold is the riskiest for developers since it is difficult to establish a long-term project when there is strong insecurity against the will of the municipality on the plot (Developer group, 2021).
Table 1.2, plot ownership of RealInvest (own table)
14
14.4 5876 m2
13.3 18776 m2
14.3 1001 m2 14.2 3360 m2
14.5 1375 m2
13.2 7941 m2
14.1 1650 m2
1.1 5461 m2
13
1.2 8000 m2
1
11.1 5695 m2 13.1 15798 m2
13.4 1464 m2
12.6
11
12.5 13726 m2 12.1 4008 m2
12
12.6 3022 m2
11.3 1990 m2
10.5
12.8 2307 m2
Figure 1.12 & 1.13 Accessibility of Binckhorst (Urban designer, 2021)
12.3 2912 m2
12.4 10658 m2
3.1 880 m2
3.2 1160 m2 3.4 1173 m2
10.5 5702 m2
3
2.2 4694 m2
3.5 3242 m2
8.1 3072 m2
8.3 8
10.2 4380 m2 9.1 4202 m2
7.1 7.2 1850 m2 7.4 530 m2 532 m2 7.6 7.3 530 m2 7.5 530 m2 7.8 530 m2 7.10530 m2 7.7 530 m2 530 m2 7.9 7.12 6.1 7.14550 m2 7.11530 m2 4202 m2 530 m2 530 m2 7.13 7.15530 m2 530 m2 6.2 2902 m2 6.3 1835 m2
8.4 1325 m2
6.4 978 m2
4.3 1000 m2
8.5 2396 m2
4.4 1442 m2 4.5 822 m2
8.6 3551 m2
8.7 3084 m2
6
4
4.6 1218 m2
4.7 2373 m2 9.4 4836 m2 9.5 1581 m2
9.6
9.6 3578 m2
9
9.2 12620 m2
4.8 1435 m2 9.3 2682 m2
9.7 6975 m2
Figure 1.14 Map of ownership of RealInvest (Developer group, 2021)
Table 1.1 Accessibility of Binckhorst (Urban designer, 2021)
8
5
7
3.7 762 m2
8.3 2764 m2
10.3 5906 m2 12.1 725 m2
3.7
3.6 2045 m2
8.2 2228 m2
10
10.4 5002 m2
7.1
2
3.3 6073 m2
11.4 1991 m2
12.7 14447 m2
12.2 7232 m2
2.1 15710 m2 1.3 19997 m2
11.2 4690 m2
5.1 10717 m2
4.1 2302 m2
4.2 2977 m2
Fig 1.15 Plot ownership (Land department, 2021)
Spatial and functional framework In the map of the building restrictions, as shown in Figure 1.16, the area is divided into a mainly residential part (light red) and a part for mainly work functions (grey). The dark red part is the part which is part of Binckhorst Avenue, which means that it should have an active plinth that will make the avenue attractive. Moreover, there will be a green area, which is the waterfront park, in this area, at least 40% has to be green public space (Developer group, 2021).
Building height and permissible building area According to Figure 1.17, the building height of new buildings shall be at least 8 metres and not more than 70 metres. Besides, height accents up to a height of 140 metres are allowed for the buildings from the junction of Binckhorstlaan with Zonweg/Verlengde Zonweg until the junction of Binckhorstlaan with Supernovaweg. Moreover, the minimum plinth height for new buildings, with the exception of high-rise buildings, at the location
with the plinth regulation as shown on the map “Building Regulations” belonging to the policy rule spatial quality, is 8 metres, whereby the plinth may only consist of one or two building layers (Gemeente Den Haag, 2020). However, Along the Trekvliet, no new buildings will be built within 26 metres of the water border. New buildings have a floor space index (FSI) of at least 1.5, unless otherwise indicated (Gemeente Den Haag, 2020). The policy rule “Spatial Quality, Map of Spatial and Functional Framework” applies to demolition-new construction, renovation and transformation: at least the gross floor area of the ground floor of the existing building that was not used for the activity of living must be returned to the new initiative on the ground floor and/or the first floor, and that this area may not be used for the activity of living, with the exception of entrances to dwellings (Gemeente Den Haag, 2020).
BINCKHORST Building rules
BINCKHORST Ruimtelijk en Functioneel raamwerk
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Figure 1.16 Rules on functions and activities (Gemeente Den Haag, 2020)
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Gemeente Den Haag Datum: 22-2-2017 Dienst Stedelijke Ontwikkeling Schaal: (A3) #### afd. Stedenbouw & Planologie Nummer: 6.39.BK-SBR-ooa-w Wijziging: 18-10-2018
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Figure 1.17 Building rules (Gemeente Den Haag, 2020)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Safe and liveability
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
The social cohesion within the area appears to be neutral, as a survey shows that the feeling of social cohesion in the area in 2019 was awarded with a 5 on a scale from 0 (is unfavourable) to 10 (is favourable) (CBS, 2019). Comparing this to the score of the entire municipality, which is 5.7, the Binckhorst appears to be an average neighbourhood regarding social cohesion (Table 1.3). Focusing on the crime numbers and types of crimes, the difference in function between other areas in The Hague and the Binckhorst becomes clear, as the majority of crimes in the Binckhorst are connected thefts from either vehicles or companies, while the crime rate involving persons is relatively lower than the city of The Hague (RSIV, 2019). Social cohesion
Social cohesion (0 = unfavourable, 10 = favourable)
2016
5
2019
5
Total of crimes
All offences
2019
401
2018
369
2017
328
Table 1.3 Safety and crimes (Developer B group, 2021)
1.2.4 Market analysis The market analysis will start from a broad view from the Netherlands and city of The Hague to the Binckhorst level. Investment market In 2020, investors in the Netherlands turn to apply more long-term hold strategies to their assets. In terms of new acquisitions, investors are increasingly interested in regional cities (CBRE, 2020). Also, integrated urban development in larger cities such as The Hague provides solutions to urban issues and also opportunities for investors. Compared with other sectors, the residential sector remains the economic motor with the largest transaction volume (Figure 1.18). Besides, office and industrial property are the second and third place respectively. Although the office sector experienced a decrease of 2% due to the insufficient supply, the investors remain highly interested in newly built offices and are willing to pay higher prices (CBRE, 2020). In general, the overall amount of capital in the investment market is increasing.
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However, the sharp increase in the real estate market in the metropolitan area also brings risk and challenge. The metropolitan area around the world is expanding due to urbanisation. Students and young professionals move to the urban area to seek better jobs and living condition. However, the growth of the real estate market was lagging. Housing shortages and affordability issue can be commonly seen in these metropolitan areas (Bouwinvest, 2020). Also, the problems of lacking infrastructure and public space should be solved as soon as possible. The real estate market needs to be restructured in a sustainable and balanced way.
Figure 1.18 Investment volume in the Netherlands (CBRE, 2021)
Financial market In recent years, Dutch banks have adopted a more restrained position in the financing market. They are focusing mainly on well-known customers and on transactions with good yields. Financiers are particularly interested in liquid sectors such as offices, residential and industrial (CBRE, 2020). Both prime and secondary offices are easily financed. In the residential market, the older segment remains hard to finance but the newer segment is highly sought after. Industrial real estate can count on numerous financing options, especially in the logistics and commercial segments. Retail property at prime locations with solvent tenants is another soughtafter product. Functional alignment with consumer wishes is crucial here. Finally, small-scale neighbourhood shopping centres and convenience retail in places with a lot of visitors (stations, airports and crowded city centres) are also popular with financiers (CBRE, 2020). Sector market Residential market The residential sector is the largest sector within the total investment market at 40.9% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The total volume was €7.3 billion, a decrease of only 3.5% compared to 2019 (€7.6 billion). According to Statistics Netherlands’ regional population forecast, the Netherlands will gain about one million inhabitants between now and 2035. Of them, almost 75% will settle in or around cities with more than 100,000 residents. Population growth has for years been a major
cause of the increasingly acute Dutch housing shortage. In 2020 the nationwide housing shortage according to the Primos forecast from ABF Research has reached 296,000 dwellings. To realise the forecasted decline in housing shortage to 182,000 dwellings in 2035, every year an average of 66,000 newly built homes will have to be added to the housing stock (Bouwinvest, 2020). Affordability in the rental market has become even more important over the past year. Purchase options are declining for part of the population due to the COVID-19 pandemic, partly due to reduced income security (CBRE, 2021). Many of those home seekers are not eligible for social housing, which means that there is even more demand for the mid-market segment.
Residential real estate High/for sale Middle
Social housing
Division 30%
40%
30%
Available units 675
134 501
Table 1.4 Available units in Binckhorst North (own table) Number of inhabitants
Year Number 2015 215 Looking at the Binckhorst, the population in the 2020 2758
Binckhorst has changed rapidly in the last years (Table Inhabitants by migration background (2020) 1.5). From this number, around 70% correspond to % Dutch natives 28.4% inhabitants with a migration background. In terms % Ethnic minorities 71.6% of inhabitants by age, around 90% corresponds to Inhabitants by age (2020) inhabitants between 20 and 64 years old. Moreover, % average 0 to 19-year-olds 7.4%maintained the age population in the area has % 20 to 64-year-olds 90.8% constant in the last 4 years and corresponds to 35 % 65-year-olds above years old (DSOand – Municipality of The 1.8% Hague, 2020). The number of households in Binckhorst has also Number of an households undergone increase accordingly with the growth of Year Number inhabitants (Table 1.6). However, compared with the 2015 of inhabitants, the number of 145 number the household 2020 inadequate. The housing shortage615 seems for the whole Households by composition Netherlands also appears (2020) in the Binckhorst area. As housing is the basis of economic growth, RealInvest % single-person household 59.3% looked closely at this issuewithout and analyse situation to % Living together childrenthe current 29.8% provide a suitable amount of housing for North % Living together with children 7% Binckhorst. % single-parent family
3.9%
Others
6.1%
Currently, the number of available units for housing is Residential 1300 (Table 1.4). However, both developer and real estate Division AvailableAunits B High/for consider salethis an inadequate 30% amount675of housing based developer A Middleon the market analysis. 40%Therefore,134 and B would expect to increase the total unit Social housing 30% 501 number. Number of inhabitants Year 2015 2020
Number 215 2758
Inhabitants by migration background (2020) % Dutch natives % Ethnic minorities
Inhabitants by age (2020)
% 0 to 19-year-olds % 20 to 64-year-olds % 65-year-olds and above
Table 1.5 Inhabitants information (own table)
Number of households
Year 2015 2020
Households by composition (2020) % single-person household % Living together without children % Living together with children % single-parent family Property of houses (2020) Owned by inhabitant Private rent Others Types of houses
Apartments Single household houses Others
Table 1.6 Households information (own table)
28.4% 71.6%
7.4% 90.8% 1.8%
Number 145 615
59.3% 29.8% 7% 3.9%
21.8% 75.5% 2.7%
93.1% 0.8% 6.1%
According to houses the information, the expected development Property of (2020) ofOwned demographic pressure in The Hague21.8% will continue by inhabitant increasing and expects a growth of 30%. In terms of Private rent 75.5% the expected development of households Others 2.7% by type in Types The of Hague, around 30,000 go for a single-parent houses family, 144,000 go for a single-person household, Apartments 93.1% 62,000 go for living together with children, and Single household houses 0.8% 67,000 go for living together without children.
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Office market Office real estate is going through a difficult phase after years of rising rents and falling vacancy rates. Despite recovery expected to begin in the second half of 2021, how high the upward trend is and where it will end depends on employment levels and how much people continue to work from home (CBRE, 2021). Users nowadays make extensive demands of their workplaces. Not only is the location important, but they attach at least as much value to the “experience” of a building and to its seamless incorporation of the latest technologies.
The investment market’s focus on mixed-use buildings and locations is another long-term trend. A rising number of office buildings in city centres, central business districts and railway stations, provide groundfloor retail or catering facilities that also serve the surrounding community. In the future, it can be expected to see an increasing focus on making a building’s direct environment a safe and green meeting space. Also, the trend of transforming existing buildings will continue, as an alternative to greenfield development (Bouwinvest, 2020). Office space
Total
Binckhorst North 40%
47,762 sqm
19,105 sqm
Table 1.7 Available office space in North Binckhorst (own table)
Employees per company 600
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
500 400 300 200 100
Figure 1.19 Dutch office in 2020 (CBRE, 2021)
0
1
204
102
67
40
15
Employees per company
系列 1 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
系列 1
Working people
Number of employed persons
2015 2020
11011 8240
Figure 1.20 Implication of Covid-19 for the Dutch office sector (Bouwinvest, 2021)
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8
Employees per company 600 500 400
Binckhorst has a noisy industrial business history leaving 300 some iconic factory buildings from the golden era. Most of those 200 buildings were transformed from factory buildings into offices, while others still remain its use for industrial companies. The location of the current companies can be 100 seen in Figure 1.21. 0
40 8 7 1 In the year1 2020, 204 the total102 number 67of companies in 15 Total Binckhorst North North 40% 40% Total Binckhorst Binckhorst is 837 with a majority of these companies Office space 47,762 sqm sqm 19,105 sqm sqm 47,762 19,105 Employees per company Office space employ between 1-10 people. (Figure 1.22). Almost Figure 1.21 Company location in North Binckhorst (Economic Affairs, 2021) 30% of the companies in the Binckhorst are active in the consultancy/advisory branch, while retail and Number of companies Employees per company information and communication complete the 1top 3 600 系列 600 of biggest branches (Figure 1.23). Companies, offices 300 also cover the majority of the business500 and stores 500 250 which has a total surface area of 642,690 park surface, 400 400 square meters in 2021. The major companies that can 200 300 be distinguished on the basis of the size of their office/ 300 150 building in Binckhorst –North are (Municipality of Den 200 200 100 Haag, 2021): 50 100 100 • The Hague waste-services (HMS) - Plutostraat 1 0 • T-Mobile - Binckhorstlaan 117 0 0 1 1
However, according to Table 1.8, the number of working people declined in the last five years. And among this decline, the major decrease can be found in the Information and communication technology and creative sector (Figure 1.24). However, sectors such as business 系列 1in the (and legal) services have considerably increased last years. Working people
Number of employed persons
2015 2020
11011 8240
204 204
102 102
67 67
40 40
15 15
8 8
7 7
1 1
Employees per per company company Employees per company Employees
Figure 1.22 Employees per company (own diagram)
Number of companies
系列 1
300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0
Table 1.8 Working people in North Binckhorst (own table) Figure 1.23 Number of companies per sector 系列 1 1(own diagram) 系列
Currently, households in Binckhorst are suffer from lower income and increase in unemployment rate, which is one key takeaway that should be focus and improve by the redevelopment. Therefore, increase employment rate is urgent for the Binckhorst area to rise the average income of the households (Table 1.9).
Working people people Working 2015 2015 2020 2020
Number of of employed employed persons persons Number 11011 11011 8240 8240
Table 1.9 Household income in North Binckhorst (own table) Figure 1.24 Employed persons by sector (own diagram)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Retail market Shopping areas in the inner city are becoming more compact and the growing share of e-commerce is changing retail real estate. This offers opportunities for mixed-use retail real estate: the combination of working, living and food services keeps the inner cities alive and will revive after the COVID-19 pandemic (CBRE, 2021). It is forecasted that the continued increase in vacancy rates in the experience-led retail segment, pressuring rents over the next two to three years even in the strongest cities (Bouwinvest, 2020). This trend will be far less visible in the convenience retail segment, where vacancy rates are not expected to rise much if at all, limiting the impact on rents (Figure 1.25).
Binckhorst North 40%
9,970 sqm 2,533 sqm
3.988 sqm 1,013 sqm
Table 1.10 Available retail space in North Binckhorst (own table)
size of one large voluminous shopping centre can exceed 5000 sqm with more than 100 employees. For smaller department stores, the average size is 1500sqm with employees from 10 to 100. A small convenience store can be less than 100 sqm and create jobs for less than 10 people. In order to increase the mixed-use level of North Binckhorst, huge shopping centres will be avoided, while smaller department stores and convenience store will be the focal point to develop. The ideal location for the retail function would be on the ground floor of commercial towers or integrated into the community context.
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
For the North Binckhorst area, there is 5000 sqm reserved for retail development (Table 1.10). The average
Retail (voluminous) Retail (small)
Total
Figure 1.25 Vacancy by type of retail destination. (Bouwinvest, 2020)
Real estate prices (Developer group, 2021) The market analysis of rental and sales prices was done by creating an exploratory overview of the area. By looking at the housing available several categories were set up and the prices for sale and for rent were decided based on three markers. These numbers could be used to indicate whether the set price points during the redevelopment game are realistic. (See Appendix 1)
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Land prices (Developer group, 2021) The information of land prices was based upon the ‘Grondprijzenbrief 2019 & 2020’. The municipality publishes this document each year to give the normative prices of regulated functions like social housing and public sporting facilities, and to give an indication on land prices of market-related functions like housing for sale or offices. The information that comes from this study can give the developer an idea of how much they would need to pay in order to acquire the land. The main tables can be found in Appendix 2. The ‘Grondprijzenbrief’ also shows us that there is a steady increase in land prices over the past few years.
In summary from both location analysis and market analysis, a SWOT analysis is conducted to conclude the overall advantages and disadvantage of North Binckhorst (Figure 1.26):
Figure 1.26 SWOT analysis of North Binckhorst (own illustration)
1.3 Real estate trends and the future of real estate Real estate frontrunners envision a future of the built environment where buildings provide comfort, support human and environmental health, and are affordable and accessible for all of society’s members (World Economic Forum, 2021). The vision is based on four main pillars - liveability, sustainability, resilience, affordability, which will guide the development strategy in the later steps (Figure 1.27).
Figure 1.27 Framework for the Future of Real Estate, including the four pillars. (World Economic Forum, 2020)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
1.4 Development strategy Charette On 17th May 2021, all group members meet during the Charette for the first time. Among six development themes, we chose inclusive city, circularity and placemaking as the three priority themes for our project. ‘Inclusive City’ will be the main vision that guides the process, while circularity and placemaking will serve as tools to accomplish this goal through different aspects. The concept of an inclusive city aims for a holistic approach that includes 3 main goals and 4 levels: 3 main goals: - Equal access to urban life - Diversity to achieve social sustainability - Collaboration help to consolidate an integral city
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
4 levels: - Spatial inclusion - Social inclusion - Economic inclusion - Ecological inclusion During the Chartte, the project team developed three different scenario of inclusive city (Figure 1.28):
Figure 1.28 Three different scenarios of inclusive city (own illustration)
1.5 Negotiation strategy Initial development plan for the area Based on the analyses above, RealInvest first came out with an initial development plan which only includes the perspective and understanding of our own. As shown in Figure 1.29, retail will be located next to the traffic while residential would be on the backside of the streets. In this way, the commercial functions can attract customers with easy access and the residential area is more quiet and comfortable for living. Several office spaces would be integrated into the area to provide job opportunities. Besides, monuments will be kept and renovated for cultural value. And green space can be seen along the riverside as well as nearby the train lines.
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Figure 1.29 Initial function plan (own illustration)
Therefore, the main objectives of RealInvest are: 1. Increase the reservation system of the housing unit to 2000, and develop at least half of the units. 2. Create mixed-use area as much as possible 3. Develop more non-residential function so that they suit the increase in housing units 4. Incorporate the idea of circularity and sustainability In order to realise this initial plan, RealInvest would lease land mainly from the municipality. Although RealInvest has owned 6 plots already, the location of the plots is separated which is challenging to form an integrated development plan. Additionally, it is important to come up with a more detailed proposal for each plot so that the municipality would be more convinced to lease the land to RealInvest rather than other parties. Relationship with other actors As is discussed in the company profile above, RealInvest has a stronger relationship with the public parties and developer A. In terms of the negotiation with the municipality, it is important to find a common vision and interest of the area. We would strive for the development method that not only creates profit for the company but also satisfy the municipal goal so that both public and private parties can achieve a ‘win-win’. For developer A, we would try to collaborate more rather than only compete. Communication in the early stage is essential so that we don’t go into big conflicts in the later stage. Also, it is more efficient to come up with a joint plan from both developers rather than submitting different area plan separately. For the housing associations, the developers would try to keep the percentage of 30% social housing and 40% mid-income housing in total. The suggestions from the advisors would be appreciated because a developer would certainly be less professional in some specific fields such as law and circular economy model than the advisors. In summary, RealInvest will strive for a cooperative and efficient negotiation environment that benefits both ourselves but also other parties. We believe and transparency and trust would be the key to avoid and prevent most conflict. Therefore, with all these analyses and strategies at hand, we are confident to enter into the negotiation phase.
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
CHAPTER 2 – NEGOTIATION PHASE (Individual product)
2.1 Negotiation process Negotiation schedule with key activities: Negotiation week 1 Work out joint objectives Negotiation week 2 Come out group KPI Negotiation week 3 Submit and announce proposals Negotiation week 4 Sign contract and elaboration on the product
Present company profile and vision of the area. Cooperate with developer A to make rough division of function All parties fill in their program of requirements with concrete numbers in one Excel to see if there is possible conflict. Later the urban planning department summarised the joint requirements into KPI packages. Market parties prepared proposals for plots they want to lease from the municipality. The municipality and advisors discussed on the proposals and make the final plot division. Negotiate on total housing units. Sign lease contract with the municipality and finalise the project with phasing plan and feasibility plan.
Table 2.1 Available retail space in North Binckhorst (own table)
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
2.1.1 Collaboration and conflicts Joint vision presented by developer A & B At the beginning of the negotiation phase, RealIvest cooperated closely with developer A (Muuttaa) to generate a joint vision of the area: To transform the former industrial site into a vibrant mixed-use area. We proposed urban functions in different types, including residential, commercial, cultural, green space and parking space. The developers stated that we’re welcome to sustainable and circular building technique which can provide a long-term return (Figure 2.1 & 2.2).
Figure 2.1 Binckhorst - before (own illustration)
Figure 2.2 Binckhorst - after (own illustration)
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Building function division The developers also made a clear division about the function and area before submitting the proposal. In general, the initial idea was that Developer A will develop more residential buildings while developer B will focus more on the commercial buildings and industrial space. However, after the municipality reviewed the proposals from all market parties. They decided that the developers will not construct any low-income social housing anymore. Only mid-income housing and highincome housing will be allowed for developers. This had caused a big change in the unit number proposed by developers. Therefore, the developers negotiate with the municipality to increase the reserved housing units from 1300 to 2000, which is also one of the objectives of developer B. In the beginning, the municipality doubted this requirement and required more explanation and statement. Therefore, the developers provide more data support about the housing shortage problem and finally convinced the municipality. However, the municipality also required more non-housing function, so that the living facilities can meet the need of the extra housing units. The final division and proportion of housing units can be seen in Table 2.2.
All proposed plot from developer B is confirmed by the municipality without changes. However, the municipality also suggested the market parties take over the plots next to the public plaza (Figure 2.4). The construction and investment of the public plaza will be covered by the municipality. With a nice green space in the middle, the value of the surrounded land would increase. Therefore, developer B and Housing association Staedion decided to divide the available plots and developer B is responsible for plot 8.3-8.5. Figure 2.3 shows the new plots that developer B lease from the municipality, and the contract can be found in Appendix 3.
12.5 7.2-7.15 8.4+8.5 9.1+9.2
Figure 2.3 Lease lands from the municipality (own illustration)
Table 2.2 Housing units division between market parties (own table)
Figure 2.4 Land development suggestion and green space invested by the municipality (Land department, 2021)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
AVR park discussion In the proposal submitted by Developer B, the current AVR waste Company will be moved away while the building will be renovated for cultural function. The municipality and advisor appreciated this idea while the law advisor questioned the possibility of moving this heavy industry. In the end, with the joint effort of the municipality, circular advisors and law consultants, the AVR company will be moved North 100m. The new AVR company will combine circularity and social program while the original AVR building will be the new cultural centre that becomes the main gathering and activity spot for future residents. The social program named “The Hague Participates!” will combine the new waste centre with social possibility. The Economic Affair invited both developers to invest in this program for 1 million euro. Developer B consider this as a good opportunity to participate in the social aspect, but more importantly, help create job opportunities to stimulate the growth of the area. Therefore, the developers showed interest in this social program, while at the same time, require incentive from the municipality in reducing land price and cost recovery for the lease plots. The negotiation turned out to be successful in that the land department is willing to skip the cost recovery from the leased land owned by the municipality. The developers will only need to pay the cost recovery for their owned plots. Cooperate with housing association to solve parking During the process, one of the housing association (Haag
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Figure 2.5 Proposed phasing in map (own illustration)
Figure 2.6 Proposed phasing (own illustration)
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wonen) came to the developers and asked if we can provide some parking space for them. Because the housing association only have a limited budget and building extra parking space would be too much of a burden. Haag wonen required 60 parking space from developers and was willing to pay 17,000 euro per plot. Considering the compensation price of the deviate downwards from the calculated parking requirement is 17,500 euro per plot. We felt it could be a win-win if the developers use the income from sold parking plots to top up the compensation of deviate downwards. The negotiation result was that each developer will build 30 parking space for Haag wonen, and Haag wonen will buy the parking lots at a price of 17,500 euro/plot. Phasing negotiation The initial phasing of developer B is the first develop the North part of the area, and then go to the South part (Figure 2.5). We would prefer not to have too many projects going on at the same time, so that the company can receive certain profit at each phase (Figure 2.6). After submitting this phasing proposal to the urban planning department, changes happens that most projects will be moved to the first phase. The reason for this is that the municipality prefer intensive construction at an early phase, so that the future residents would not be too disturb by the constant construction. Although the municipality make changes to the phasing of developer B, the new phasing still remain in the ‘possible construction period’. Therefore, the developer B accept the changes and came to agreements.
2.2 Negotiation result
LFA housing 37%
LFA nonhousing 63%
Developer B Developer A Staedion Haag wonen
LFA housing
LFA housing 37%
LFA non-housing
Mid segment 41%
Figure 2.7 Masterplan with division of market parties (own illustration) High rent After the Negotiation with the municipality and other market parties, RealInvest will construct new buildings or ren59% LFA nonhousingownership and leasehold agreement. Only the existing building on plot ovate the existing buildings on all plots with 63% 12.6 will be demolished and have no building structure in the future. 12.6 would be part of the integrated development of plot 12.5, which will form a cultural and sustainable centre with abundant green space in the future. Since High rent Mid segment housing LFA non-housing the characteristic of RealInvest is to develop theLFA consolidated area, all of the lease plots have an existing structure on them, and the structure would be either keep or renovate for new use. Total Retail Industrial Space 15%
5%
LFA housing 37%
Mid segment 41% High rent 59%
LFA nonhousing 63%
Hospitality (catering) 4%
Service Industry 48%
Office Space
18%
LFA housing
High rent
LFA non-housing
Creative Industry 10%
Mid segment
Figure 2.8 Data of RealInvest’s developement (own illustration) Total Retail 5% Mid segment 41%
Total LFA housing Total housing units Service Average housing unit LFA Industry High rent
Service Industry 48%
Industrial Space 15%
54,176 sqm 505 Hospitality 78 sqm (catering) 4%
48% 59% Total parking 1071 Total LFA non-housing 93,448 sqm Office Space LFA retail 4,708 sqm18% Creative High rent Mid segment LFA industrial space (light) 15, 032 sqm Industry 10% 3,796 sqm Total RetailLFA hospitality Industrial 5% LFA officeSpace space 17,879 sqm 15% LFA creative industry 9,252 sqm Hospitality LFA service industry (museum, sports, 46,850 sqm (catering) day-care, amenities…) 4%
Table 2.3 Detailed insight of RealInvest’s developement (own table) Office Space
18%
Creative Industry 10%
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Development Overview
Service Industry Office Space High-income Housing Mid-income Housing Retail Catering Creative Indutry Light Indutry Figure 2.9 Function location of RealInvest’s developement (own illustration)
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Figure 2.10 Final phasing of RealInvest’s developement (own illustration)
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Key Product 1: AVR 2.0 Currently, the iconic building of the AVR waste management company is located on plot 12.5 and RealIvest have full ownership of 12.6 with a leasehold contract for 7 years. The idea is to develop 12.5 and 12.6 together as a public centre that facilitates the high-quality living of future residents. The structure on 12.6 will be demolished 4 years earlier than the end date of the lease contract. Therefore, RealInvest will compensate the user of the structure according to the market value of the building. In the future, 12.6 will be transformed into a public green space with no structure built on it. For the 12.5 plot, the existing main structure of the AVR building will be kept. RealInvest intended to renovate the interior space so that it can accommodate public function such as library, gallery, restaurant and retail etc. Also, as suggested by the circular economy advisors, this new AVR 2.0 will incorporate advanced circular techniques that extend the life span of the building and also reduce the operational cost.
Key Product 2: Wooden Tower (on the right) Located at the intersection of Binckhorstlaan and Mercuriusweg, the timber tower on plot 10.5 is designed to be the future landmark of the area. With good access to public transport, more commercial functions can be realised in this building. Including 10,000 sqm office, 912 sqm catering, 1825 sqm retail and 5474 sqm service industry. Since the development cost is quite high in this plot, only high-income market housing will be implemented in the tower. From the building material perspective, timber would be the main material. Although the wooden high-rise technique is relatively new, we believe that it will become a future trend to achieve sustainability. Therefore, this building can be seen as an experimental building that aims for the future. 23
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Key Product 3: Mixed-use neighbourhood In plots 7.1-7.15 located the municipal industrial monuments. These factory buildings will be renovated to non-housing function such as office and creative industry. Also, since the factory buildings have monumental value, RealInvest proposed a cultural museum that can educate the residents and visitor about the industrial history of Binckhorst. The facade and structure of the factory buildings will be kept, while the interior will be renovated to higher building performance. Besides, mid-income housing in plot 3.7 and plot 8.3-8.5 are surrounding this area, which together forms a mixed-use neighbourhood with high inclusiveness. The future residents are able to enjoy a high-quality living while also connect to the industrial DNA of the area.
Key Product 4: Waterfront Park Next to plot 9.6, there is another waterfront area that has great development potential. Compared to the waterfront area in AVR 2.0, this waterfront park is smaller in scale and aim to serve the residents living nearby. People who own a boat can easily park their boats in the harbour, while pedestrians can also enjoy the waterfront view by the water plank road. 24
2.3 Financial feasibility
Plot 3.7 7.1 7.2-7.15 8.3-8.5 9.1+9.2 9.6 10.5 12.5 Average
Property return 5.4% 14.5% 10.5% 7.9% 11.5% 11.8% 16.6% 7.7% 10.7%
NPV € € € € € € € € €
30,421.75 691,443.25 2,742,755.13 1,727,942.81 14,372,189.67 881,022.00 14,650,273.08 1,552,333.12 4,581,047.60
Table 2.4 Property return and NPV (own table)
The average property return of the plots developed by RealInvest is 10.7% (Table 2.4). Large projects such as in plots 9.1+9.2 and 10.5 have a higher property return. This is because those plots located in the central spot of North Binckhorst which has more commercial function and high-rent units. Also, those two plots have the highest NPV which is above 14,000,000 euro. The lowest property return comes from plot 3.7, which is the smallest plot. Although the construction cost of plot 3.7 is low due to renovation, all housing units in 3.7 are for rent not for sale. This rental strategy could help keep the long-term cash flow healthy, however not making a great profit at the beginning. Throughout all the plots, there is a high mix of sale and lease. The sale ones aim to cover the short-term investment cost so that the company can earn a certain profit at the early stage. The lease ones are beneficial for long-term
return. As the company characteristic suggested, RealInvest usually keeps the property for long-term cash flow. RealInvest also invests in sustainability and circularity. All buildings developed by RealInvest have a BREEAM certificate at least ‘good’. In order to achieve higher energy performance and produce less waste, besides the normal construction cost, RealInvest will spend an extra 20-25% of the hard construction cost for the BREEAM certificate. The municipality and circular advisor are pleased by this idea and willing to help. Thus, the municipality agreed to make some discount on the land price and the circular managers are able to provide cheap furniture made by circular materials. The risk analysis according to the financial feasibility can be seen in Table 2.5.
Risk
Financial impact
Mitigation plan
General market Risk: Higher office vacancy rate due to covid-19 Asset-level Risk: High return property embedded with more risk and uncertainty Idiosyncratic Risk: At the beginning of construction, it is difficult to collect rents Credit Risk: Single tenant office building have more risk than multitenant office building Leverage Risk: The more debt on an investment, the more risk and uncertainty.
Less income from lease or sale the office space Income from the commercial function can have seasonal fluctuations which affect the financial stability of assets
Increase the flexibility of office space by adding diverse type of small offices. Also, prepared some office space to be able to transform to other commercial function corresponding to the market demand. Balance the proportion between residential function and commercial function. When business off-season come, the other functions are able to fetch up.
Financial deficit in the construction period.
Arrange project phasing wisely so that when some projects are under construction, the other ones are already built and making profit.
Large single company can go bankrupt easier than multiple small business which affect the developer’s income
Lease more office building to multi-tenant rather than lease them to one big company. Signe tenant office building should be limited in the company portfolio.
When a project return on assets isn’t enough to cover interest payments, the investors tend to lose quickly and a lot.
The maximum leverage should not exceed 70%.
Table 2.5 Financial risk analysis (own table)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
CHAPTER 3 – ELABORATION PHASE
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
(Group product)
“Waste 0 Potential, Experience ∞ Opportunities” Waste 0 Potential (W0P5) is proposed as an inclusive and circular strategy for the redevelopment of the Binckhorst by trying to ensure a lively and healthy environment while at the same time trying to develop an economically prosperous area. We aim to develop not only an area for the people of Binckhorst, but we strive to connect the area to the rest of The Hague. This all while wasting no perspective, place, people, product and process. Perspective With an industrial perspective on Binckhorst, we will embrace and preserve the cultural heritage of the area. To
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reach the potential of the area, we will make use of the local strengths and connect the existing opportunities. The ultimate goal is to create a balance between the industry, living environment and providing a healthy inclusive city which is ready for the future! Place Three main places envision our proposal: the AVR, a lively public square and mixed-use high rise buildings. The AVR is crucial and truly captures our ‘Waste 0 Potential’ values, It stands for pursuing a fully circular economy and
Figure 3.1 Housing & non-housing division (urban designer, 2021)
The Hague underlined the importance of this function as employer, also in a broader context. In favour of an inclusive area, the area will provide space for people from all groups in society. This results in a strong identity of the area where people feel proud to live and work in.
sustainable goals, and shows to strive for an area that reaches the fullest potential of all people and its places. Mixed-use high rise buildings together with the public spaces connect working, living and leisure for the different target groups in the area. The future Binckhorst area contains everything necessary to live your life to the most potential (Figure 3.1). People In the former industrial Binckhorst area, companies provide work to more than 8000 people. The Municipality of
Product Binckhorst is located near The Hague’s city center, the district of innovative entrepreneurs, fresh ideas, and established businesses and institutions. Nowadays, people live and work in contemporary, creative, and inventive urban neighbourhoods. With an ideal location, near the city centre, highway and easily accessible by train, the municipality determined that it may evolve to a mixeduse area. The location has piqued the interest of developers, entrepreneurs, and prospective inhabitants. Process To ensure a liveable and healthy environment, while preserving the authenticity of the Binckhorst during our long-term development project, the area is gradually realized. Our three main places are positioned strategically in time to gently transform the area to his new circular identity. The AVR immediately puts the area on the map, while the central square lifts the area by linking together the various different functions, functionalities, activities and identity establishing parts of the Binckhorst in a single connective place-to-go.
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
3.1 Values
3.2 Ambitions
Our W0P’s values are intertwined with our main ambitions on placemaking, inclusivity and circularity (Figure 3.2). These ambitions are important in order to build and integrate communities within Binckhorst. It is the base of our integral vision, which was created with the help of five pillars that need to be fulfilled in the Binckhorst area. Together, the pillars form the vision for the whole developed area. The first vision pillar “circularity” strives for resilient redevelopment with circular and climate adaptive plans. W0P strives for a circular, climate-neutral and experimental built environment, The AVR and public space are small examples of the circularity topics, which will be elaborated further in the document.
Requirement Packages After establishing the vision pillars, packages with requirements were chosen for the translation of the vision into actual development. The Base Package on the bottom of Figure 3.3 is in general based on the municipal targets for 2030. These targets will be shown in the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) in the next figures. This ensures that in the base package, the minimum goals will be accomplished. Requirement Packages PlusPlus Package
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Plus Package
The second vision pillar evolves around “efficient buildings”. Because of the scarce space for urban development in the centre of The Hague, it is crucial to make every use of space count. Making use of rooftops and underground parking space in combination with mixed-use will help to realize an efficient spatial design. The third pillar “industrial” arises around the preservation of the unique characteristics. Its former- and current industries are central to the DNA of the location. Binckhorst as an “economic motor” is the fourth pillar. Binckhorst needs to be developed into the economic motor of The Hague, next to the new Central Innovation District. Specifically, small and medium businesses need to settle in the area with jobs for the lower income group. The last pillar is “inclusivity” strives for enough houses, public- and social functions and jobs for every group within the residents present, which together create a liveable built environment. This asks for a healthy ratio between living and working in the area.
Added Value Base Package
Figure 3.3 Requirements- or ambitions packages (W0P group, 2021)
To measure if the vision is realized, based on the packages, KPIs are used. Municipal- and marketplans were measured alongside these KPIs to make sure the development is on the right track to fulfil the vision pillar and their ambitions. The first KPIs addressed are those of the vision pillar ‘Circularity & Climate Adaptiveness’. The main established ambitions concerned with this vision point are circular industries, energy neutral new buildings and circular new buildings. The KPIs are used to check if the ambitions are met, for example if the parties involved the industries in their proposal. What stands out with the KPIs in Table 3.1 is that the PlusPlus Package is more ambitious than the municipal targets of 2040.
Table 3.1 The main Key Performance Indicators of the vision pillar ‘Circularity’ (W0P group, 2021)
Figure 3.2 Ambitions and vision pillars (W0P group, 2021)
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The critical KPIs for the vision pillar ‘Efficient Built Environment’ mainly evolve around use of space. In an urban city like The Hague, it is essential to use the space available as good as possible. That is why the two main indicators are the use of rooftops and integration of underground parking facilities. These KPIs will provide a tool for measurement of an efficient built environment in the Binckhorst.
3.3 Target Groups
Table 3.2 The main Key Performance Indicators of the vision pillar ‘Efficient Built Environment’ (W0P group, 2021)
The one KPI for the preservation of the Industrial DNA of the area is concerned with the characteristics of heritage. If the buildings in the area are designed with respect for the historical activity in the Binckhorst, the Industrial DNA of the area will be preserved.
Table 3.3 The main Key Performance Indicators of the vision pillar ‘Industrial DNA’ (W0P group, 2021)
In order to realize the set ambitions of the ‘Economic Motor’ vision pillar, six KPIs are crucial for achieving it. From the perspective of the municipality, the creation of jobs might be more important than any other task. Specifically for the Binckhorst a focus on lower class jobs is asked. In addition to that goal, it is important to provide a manufacturing industry in the area. This will also add to the ambition of the ‘Industrial’ vision pillar. Furthermore, the integration of mixed-use in the area is a KPI. This will ensure the economic motor as well as improving the liveability of the area.
Various target groups are linked to the future Binckhorst. The identified target groups for the Binckhorst are currently small- and mid-sized businesses, service companies, light industries, medium-sized businesses (that also make use of offices), the retail industry and tourists. Currently, 70% of the inhabitants in the Binckhorst have an immigrant background and even more have a low-income salary (DSO – Municipality of The Hague, 2020). This shows the vulnerability of the area. To meet the increasing demand for one- or two-person households and to stimulate social cohesion and community-building within the area, the following target groups are identified for the Binckhorst: Young Professionals, students, expats, elderly and small-, urban families and singles. Besides the residential function, Binckhorst will also preserve his industrial- and economic role (See Figure 3.4). Therefore, the current small- and mid-sized businesses, service companies and light industries will be preserved to enhance the industrial character. Also, small retail- and office spaces will be added to contribute to the diversity of the area. These small, flexible office spaces offer working space for the entrepreneurs of The Hague who will inhabit the area.
Table 3.4 The main Key Performance Indicators of the vision pillar ‘Economic Motor’ (W0P group, 2021)
Last but not least, the KPIs to achieve Inclusivity evolve around the right type of housing and mobility measurement to improve the accessibility. An inclusive city is concerned with providing the right kind of housing for their residents. Besides that, it is important to be aware of percentages of type of housing. The right mix will ensure a liveable and inclusive neighbourhood for the Binckhorst area. Also, mobility measurements are needed to make sure everyone has access to the facilities of the area. Shared mobility hubs and bike bridges will help to achieve an accessible area that is ready for future use and transportation.
Figure 3.4 Target groups (W0P group, 2021)
Table 3.5 The main Key Performance Indicators of the vision pillar ‘Inclusivity & Accessibility’ (W0P group, 2021)
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ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
3.4 Spatial plan
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
The Binckhorst, located in the south-eastern part of The Hague, is an important industrial area. With the old concrete factory and the waste processor, the Binckhorst consists of iconic light industries with regional importance. The trekvliet, a canal from Leiden to The Hague and eventually to Delft and Rotterdam, is an important regional water route. The Koningscorridor is an important traffic junction which functions as one of the main entrances to the city. It is the main route from the beach through the Central Innovation District, Binckhorst to Zoetermeer and Delft. Besides this, the Binckhorst can play a role in the national program to realize 1 million homes before 2030 and act as a pilot area in the national ambitions to become fully circular in 2050 (Rijksoverheid, 2016). With regards to the ambitions of the circular economy, the Binckhorst can solve some issues identified by the municipality of The Hague. One of the main ambitions is to make material flows with economic importance within the region and show the opportunities for the circular economy (Gemeente Den Haag, 2018). In 2015 Bureau
Function and strategy
Figure 3.5 Function of each plot (own illustration)
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Superuse made an inventorisation of resources, products and waste was in- and exported to Binckhorst. Their results showed that annually €20 million of added value can be created when the material flows are dealt with more effectively. Therefore, a resource manager that links businesses together so that the full potential of the resource streams is used. Furthermore, for the circular economy to strive, a broader scope is needed to look further than only the city scale. In the province of South Holland there are numerous initiatives for the circular economy, and it has been calculated that the earning potential for high-quality (re-) use of the residual flows in the Central Holland region is between €100 million and €200 million per year, where the Binckhorst can play a part in this earning potential (Circulair biz, nd). Every day, more than €100,000 worth of food is thrown away on industrial estates in the region, and every year, 72 trucks are loaded in the region with discarded raw materials, worth €86,000 per truck.
Figure 3.6 Function districts (own illustration)
All new functions created by the market parties are shown in Figure 3.5. It is noticeable that most buildings have a mixed use of residential and commercial functions. This is based on the overall vision of creating a vibrant, dynamic and liveable experience within the area. In general, 5
districts can be identified, including the waste center. As is shown in Figure 3.6, firstly, the circularity & industrial area mainly include the relocation of AVR which do not only prevent the removal of existing industry but also implement advanced circular strategy. Secondly, the area along the riverside emphasizes the idea of placemaking. The AVR 2.0 will serve as a main gathering place for future residents and visitors. Thirdly, the central district along the Binckhorstlaan will serve as the economic motor that creates abundant job opportunities. Through the use of towers in the area which are equipped with sustainable techniques, high building efficiency is achieved. Fourthly, the inclusivity area supports community building by combining social housing, small office space and community centres that aim to integrate diverse target groups into one place. Finally, the fifth area: industrial and placemaking located on the Northeast side aim to provide adequate facilities for local residents.
Figure 3.7 Strategy of each plot (own illustration)
In order to realise these functions, various building strategies will be used (Figure 3.7). In total, there are 4 types of strategies: demolishing, building, renovating and preserving. Demolishing and building will mostly be applied to plots with low performance existing buildings. New construction only happens in the ‘industrial and placemaking’ area where there are vacant building sites. All valuable buildings will be maintained and renovated, which will help to preserve the industrial DNA of Binckhorst. Only one demolition is situated next to the AVR 2.0 is necessary to create space for future green space.
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Public spaces/green/water
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Within the area, walkability and liveability have been increased through the integration of new public spaces and greenery. To extend the current amount of (green) public space, rooftops will be utilized. These functional roofs are not only intended for solar panels, but also provide greenery and other public or private facilities. In addition, a multifunctional square (with the functions of water retention, recreation and transportation hub) has been designed at the beginning of the area, as one of the entrances towards the area. Furthermore, a new green area has been integrated in the east part of the Binckhorst, next to the railways, in order to increase the liveability of the plots there (Figure 3.8). A green route to connect these new green public areas has been created throughout the Binckhorst area, ending at the waterfront park, leading all visitors and residents to this new attractive and liveable area (Figure 3.9). In addition, the old AVR that is next to the park has been transformed into a
Figure 3.8 Public spaces within the area (W0P group, 2021)
cultural and lively centre with public functions, to create a more liveable area and waste zero potential!
Figure 3.9 WOP-Loop between areas connecting public spaces (W0P group, 2021)
Accessibility, connection with different parts of the city
Leiden
Tr ek vl ie t
The Hague
The Binckhorst
Zoetermeer
Koningscorridor
Utrecht
Delft
Rotterdam
Figure 3.10 Connection between the Binckhorst and surrounding cities (W0P group, 2021)
The Binckhorst area is very well-connected, this is due to its proximity to The Hague city centre and three train stations including: 1) The Hague central station, 2) The Hague Holland Spoor and 3) Voorburg. These stations are less than a 10-min bike ride from the Binckhorst area. Moreover, the highways around the area ensure the connection of the Binckhorst area to Rotterdam (30-min drive), Leiden (27-min drive) and Delft (20-min drive), this is shown in Figure 3.10. However, due to the former industrial function of the area, the Binckhorst hardly provides comfort to pedestrians and cyclists. In order to increase mobility within the area, W0P5 introduced two mobility hubs which are strategically located around the area and aim to offer safe and convenient switching between different transportation modes. Furthermore, the main streets around the Binckhorst are redesigned. This redesign consists in the reconstruction of the main streets intersections to provide more safety and accessibility for both pedestrians and cyclists. Moreover, since the municipality’s goal is to stimulate the use of public transport and increase the use of shared facilities, several strategies have been applied by the developers in order to decrease the amount of parking spaces they have to deliver. Finally, W0P5 also
Figure 3.13 Activities in one year (own illustration)
Figure 3.11 Accessibility W0P5 (W0P group, 2021)
aims to build new bike and pedestrian paths to increase the connectivity of the whole area and create a vibrant and liveable area (Figure 3.11). User Activities Here, we go one step further to see the possible activities in W0P in one day and one year (Figure 3.12 & 3.13). Residents are able to fulfil their daily needs within the Binckhorst including education, work, eating and entertainment. Unique activities such as visiting the circular complex and heritage museum add more playfulness and educational value to the daily routine. Looking at one year, W0P offers various public activities according to different seasons. This will attract both residents and visitors from The Hague. Finally, through these events we aim to bring visitors from the Randstad and even attract tourists from over the world
Figure 3.12 Activities in one day (own illustration)
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3.5 AVR
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The Binckhorst has historically been the industrial center of the city of The Hague, due to its strategic location close to the city center and available connection with the water for cheap transport. The AVR and the HMS are also located in the area. The HMS is a center where residents can bring their big or dangerous household waste to (Haagse Milieu Straat, n.d.). The AVR temporarily stores and sorts the waste of many households in the region of The Hague (AVR, 2021). When relocating the AVR to another, rural, location, the burden on the environment will increase by the extra distance travelled by the delivery trucks. This results in more CO2 emissions and busier roads, which eventually result in more traffic jams and a less efficient supply chain. Therefore, it is important to keep the AVR in the area. Furthermore, it has been calculated that the circular economy will create 3500 more jobs in The Hague in comparison to jobs created in the linear economy (Gemeente Den Haag, 2018). The AVR also contributes to this phenomenon, as it is the ambition of the municipality to create more jobs in the Binckhorst. With the circular economy goals for 2030 and 2050 in mind, the new facility can emerge as the place where these ambitions come to life, with the collection of waste being brought back to a local scale over a long time period. The cities Paris and London can be seen as examples for the necessity of industrial service locations in the city. These cities (re)transformed industrial locations to residential and commercial locations back to industrial locations again because the industrial operations of a healthy city were missing. This has resulted in enormous expenses made by the metropolitan regions. The building of the AVR does not fit the needs of a circular waste facility at the moment, so renovation or relocation is needed to create a center where no waste is wasted, and the separation system is as effective and efficient as possible. Currently, the AVR is located next to the Polderhaven, which is an attractive plot to transform into a cultural center for a liveable city. This means that relocating the AVR not only helps to increase capacity and effectiveness, but also helps create space for a cultural center in the old iconic building, so it adds to the cultural value of the city as well. Also, the relocation of the AVR creates space for collaboration in a circular W0P center with circular- and second hand shops, startups and a material hub. This means that it is also a vital part for community-building and other social initiatives in the area. The W0P center is divided in three different transition
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ZONE 3 ZONE 2 ZONE 1
Figure 3.14 Transition zones W0P center. (W0P group, 2021)
zones to create a balance between the industry, living environment and a healthy inclusive city (see Figure 3.14). In zone 1 the heavy industry, such as the AVR is placed, so the environmental nuisance will be minimized. In zone 2 the lighter industry, such as the material hub for construction materials, is created. This material hub functions as a facility for reusing building materials. In this hub products are stored and reused and hereby it contributes to fewer travels, lower transport costs, lower CO2 and nitrogen emissions, and a faster construction time (VolkerWessels, nd.). Zone 3 facilitates smaller circular businesses, such as start-ups, second hand shops and repair cafes. The functions that are added include the GGZ (mental health care) day care for homeless people in the repair and second hand shops, and disabled citizens can work the local restaurants and coffee bars. In this W0P center the AVR and HMS are working together with the local companies and institutions and therefore contributes to a work environment for underprivileged citizens of the Binckhorst. The transfer of the AVR to its new location on the northwest side of the Binckhorst will have financial implications, therefore multiple parties will be investing in the relocation and expansion of the AVR facility. The municipality will cover the construction of the new AVR as it is a public facility. Because environmental nuisance prohibited earlier development, a developer will also contribute to the relocation. The AVR will also contribute to the relocation as the new facility has the potential to increase the capacity, economies of scale and agglomeration economies.
3.6 Collaboration model
The area development makes use of a Developing Apart Together (DAT) agreement. The inner-city development of Binckhorst is characterized by fragmented ownership due to the former industries: light industry and public services. This brings much organizational inflexibility and high financial risks when deploying a Joint Venture strategy. For this project to be successful, it is not necessary to have everyone on board as we embrace the current industrial character and businesses. Therefore, we can rely on the willingness of the developers. In favour of good governance, it is essential to have a strong shared vision for the area. With round-table conversations, goal alignment among the developers and simultaneously having a steering role in the development process can be assured. DAT keeps the partnership light & flexible and preserves the possibility to change or postpone the commonly agreed program and planning. To stimulate the developers’ incentives, performance rewards are created by the municipality. Using a ‘base’-, ‘plus’- and ‘plus plus’-package, the municipality steered the developers to the highest added value for the area. 3.7 Implementation Phasing Every real estate development requires complex organisational systems to bring together the necessary inputs at the correct time to create a desirable finished product (Adams & Tiesdell, 2011). Therefore, the development of W0P5 consists of three phases, based on the different lease holding phases, with the aim to not over- or undersupply the housing-, office- and retail market. Phase 1 (2021 - 2025): Seeding The first phase (Figure 3.15) will start with the development of the new and improved AVR concept. The different developments are split up in different clusters to ensure the nuisance will be minimal. This phase is completely in line with the current land-use plan, which therefore limits the risk of delay in the beginning of this area development. In the first phase, the municipality invested in the Trekvlietzone, the public quay, the Rotterdamsebaan, as the main access road of Binckhorst and the bicycle bridge, which connects the eastern part of the area with the western part of the area. This shows the confidence of the municipality in the area towards the market parties, kickstarts the total project and ensures liveability throughout the process. The plots developed in this phase are mixed-use which immediately creates a diverse area that has activities throughout the whole day.
Figure 3.15 Phase 1 (W0P group, 2021)
Phase 2 (2026 - 2030): Expanding The second phase (Figure 3.16) is focused on the western part of our area. As from this moment, the plan develops more housing than allowed, which requires a change in the land-use plan. This process can take place in the first phase to safeguard the planning. The main focus of this phase are the developments around the public square, which will connect the different parts of the Binckhorst. The municipality will develop the other half of the Trekvlietzone, the public square, and the Mercuriusweg which are all of added value for the public spaces and lays emphasis on slow traffic.
Figure 3.16 Phase 2 (W0P group, 2021)
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Phase 3 (2031 - 2041): Growing The last phase has the most uncertainty since it is planned further in the future (Figure 3.17). To ensure flexibility in this phase, Staedion’s building complex will be able to adapt to the housing needs that are applicable at this moment in time.
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Figure 3.18 Non-housing programme (W0P group, 2021)
Figure 3.17 Phase 3 (W0P group, 2021)
Total phasing Fig 3.20 gives an overview of what functions are added in the WOP5 plan. These functions and its division are in line with the Municipal goals and will be of added value for the mixed-use and inclusive area we strive for. It is important to note that not all development can be executed simultaneously, therefore to Waste zero Place, multiple temporary uses can be implemented in the plan. Pop-up stores to test the retail feasibility or temporary makerspace are two of the many examples which can act as a playground for change.
Figure 3.20 We will deliver... (W0P group, 2021)
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Figure 3.19 Housing programme (W0P group, 2021)
Figure 3.18 and Figure 3.19 illustrate how this total added programme and amount of dwellings is developed over time. Whereas Figure 3.21 shows the development per plot.
Figure 3.21 Total phasing (W0P group, 2021)
3.8 Feasibility 3.8.1 Social ‘Waste zero potential’ aims to store old wine in a new bottle by retaining the industrial spirit of the place in new buildings. W0P5 has the vision to integrate a socially inclusive community in The Binckhorst area. This community includes singles, students, starters, urban families, and empty nesters. Special care is taken into consideration for the immigrants and refugees that move into the area. In the new waste center, a daycare for the homeless is built and they have an opportunity to work in repair and thrift shops. The program satisfies The Hague municipality’s requirement of building 30% social housing. This requirement helps in bridging the tremendous housing market deficit in The Hague.
The program accommodates around 40% mid-segment housing. The new mid-segment helps the municipality two-fold. Firstly, the higher rent could yield a higher NPV for the city to develop green and public spaces. Secondly, This project can help people transition from social to mid-segment housing. Based on our market analysis, we noticed dwellers who no longer fit the social housing criteria remain in their existing homes due to the lack of more apposite housing. We can clear people from the prevailing social houses by providing more mid-segment, as shown in Figure 3.22.
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Figure 3.22 The housing continuum (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation CMHC, 2018)
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Moreover, the project developers will develop high rent apartments. The area then has a place for all income types based on market demand. The number of houses that are in total created is in balance with the number of jobs created. By building 2052 houses, the development tries to give everyone a chance to live in the proximity of a big city like The Hague. Furthermore, in collaboration with the municipality and developers, the housing association decided to build social houses along concurrent plots to maximise the common area among buildings. This decision would help in minimising the recurring costs associated with building homes on different plots. For instance, a large recreational centre and a public park could be beneficial for dwellers from all target groups. 3.8.2 Environmental Law + Circular The environmental feasibility of the area can be seen as being twofold. First of all, the existing national and international laws and regulations for living environments, constructions and public spaces, also known as environmental law, must be complied with. However, this framework also provides room for more ambitious plans and solutions. This way of thinking, and pushing boundaries about environmental feasibility, can be seen as standard in the redevelopment process, all with the aim to make Binckhorst not only lawfully feasible but also environmentally astonishing. Looking at the environmental concerns in the Binckhorst area, a couple stand out, especially when developing mixed-use areas. Noise and odour pollution, social and economic safety as well as circularity and climate adaptation are all important environmental issues. Naturally, the environmental and zoning laws have been followed to keep inhabitants and other users safe. To further deal with these concerns, win-win solutions, which follow or even outdo the environmental laws and directives whilst enhancing the functions in the area, have been sought out and implemented. As an example, one can think of slow-traffic zones and greened main roads to both improve the environmental quality and at the same time reduce CO2 emissions, which will result in a healthier living environment.
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Solutions like these help to safeguard the environmental quality of the area and help to create a healthy urban living environment. All new constructions are carbon-neutral as to follow the new ‘BENG’ (Almost energy neutral buildings, based on the EPBD) requirements and adhere to the municipal policy of The Hague (Gemeente Den Haag, 2009, RIS 165335). Furthermore, by moving the AVR to the new location, in a remote corner of the area, space and opportunities are created for a healthy living environment. The expansion adds to the circular feasibility of the ambitions of The Hague and the region. As earlier mentioned, the high set ambitions need this input, to keep the material flows within the region, allowing collaboration with other municipalities and reducing the amount of CO2 needed for the transport of material flows. New developments in this area include a waterfront with greenery as well as mixed-use housing and retail which provides eyes on the street and activity over the course of the day. Additionally, pedestrian and cycling connections are implemented to increase interaction and further safety. 3.8.3 Financial feasibility For the financial feasibility of the development both public and private parties have to provide a positive Net Present Value (NPV) for their developments. Besides a positive NPV, it is important to consider the phasing. During the phasing almost all the developments are implemented in phase 1 and 2. This means that at the beginning of the redevelopment there are high costs and high risks without having the revenues yet. To ensure that these high costs and high risks are manageable, accurate project management is needed from the different parties. The project management for each development will be executed for each stakeholder in its own organisation. The NPV of the different parties are shown in Table 3.6. NPV of development parties Municipality Developer A - Muuttaa Developer B - RealInvest Housing association – Haag wonen Housing association – Staedion
19,496,124 25,821,087 36,648,381 18,659,918 36,315,587
Table 3.6 TNPV of development parties (W0P group, 2021)
CHAPTER 4 – EVALUATION & REFLECTION (Individual product)
As discussed in the elaboration chapter, the project of W0P5 is established based on the 5P model. In this chapter, all 5P will be evaluated and reflected. Perspective Perspective refers to all other Ps including place, people, product, and process. In the development game, the project group refer the ‘perspective’ to ‘potential’ of the site. The potential of the North Binckhorst is mainly about the industrial monument and potential of redevelop the waste management centre.
Figure 4.1 5P model (van Bueren, 2021)
The perspective is influenced by three factors: Government, market and civil society (Figure 4.1). The municipality in the game can represent the perspective of the government, while the market parties stand for the market perspective. However, the perspective from the civil society is partly missing in this game. The municipality and market party can only assume the target group by data and literature support, but not directly get in touch with the local residents and future users. Place Compared with other group proposals, the market parties in our group took over the most available plots which contribute to a more integrated design of the whole area. According to Adams and Tiesdell (2012), a successful place should have the following characteristics: Places meant for people, Well-connected and permeable places, Places of mixed use and varies density, Distinctive places (rooted in local DNA) and Sustainable, resilient and robust places. The W0P5 project has tried to include all these aspects in the redevelopment design, while
some aspects performance better than others. For example, most buildings in W0P5 has a mixed-use of housing function and non-housing function. The central district is the densest area, while the density decrease as it goes to the surrounding area. Besides, the industrial DNA is well preserved by keeping the feature of the factory buildings or keep the light industry function in the future plan. However, the connection between W0P5 and the city of The Hague is relatively weak. In the group final presentation, we did not mention this connection and cause misunderstanding to the jury. Also, the jury questioned about the connection between each public space, which we do consider it in the group discussion but didn’t realise the design on papers. To think further on the aspect of ‘place’, the current situation and future trend should also be taken into consideration. After the covid-19 pandemic, the social distance of 1.5m has become a norm for people’s daily life. Therefore, it would cause changes to the future public space design, the question is how we design the public space differently so that if another pandemic happens, people can still enjoy the shared area without too much concern. Additionally, new techniques of transportation are going to shift how people commute. Since the project will only be completely finished on 2040, it is possible that in the future, self-driving vehicles would be realistic and thus the transportation system will need to be reinvented. People The ‘people’ aspect in the reflection part will focus on the actors who played their role in the redevelopment game. At the beginning of the game, developer B has drawn a relationship chart to describe the ideal relationship with other actors. During the game, some relationship appears to be different from the assumption. Therefore, as is shown in Figure 4.2, the orange lines shows the adjusted new connections. During the game, the role of the process manager was not so intensive as we thought, most communication was done by the actors themselves rather than via the process manager. Therefore, the relationship of RealInvest and process manager is weaker in the real game. Although housing associations was one of the market players, RealInvest did not have that much contact with them, but more with the other developer. The major cooperation between housing association and developers is to divide the housing units. Besides, RealInvest had many direct contact with the Economic Affairs about the social program. The Economic Affairs also provide information support about the rental price of office
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and commercial space. It is surprised for us to find out that our relationship with the urban designer was stronger than expected. Every time when the developers have new ideas on the redevelopment design, we always contact the urban designer to give an opinion and ask her to combine different ideas from the market parties and the public actors.
Process The ‘process’ includes the sequence of decisions and actions that shape the content of an area-based project (van Bueren, 2021). This refer to both the learning process of the project team, and also the process of playing the game. First, the project team met two times per week. On Monday, we agreed on an online meeting format that people share their findings and discussion what product do we need to further discuss on Friday. On Friday, we had a regular on-campus discussion that every actor are suggested to join. The combination of online and offline meetings provide us with both flexibility in time management and efficiency in face-to-face communication.
Figure 4.2 Reflection - new relationship (own illustration)
As for the role of developer B, we did achieved the company goals and earn profit from this project, but there is still space for improvement. During the project, we did not take the leading role but focus more on cooperate with other actors. This is on one hand good for democratic decisions, but on the other hand, with so many people in a project team, sometimes it is difficult to make harsh decisions and actors getting stuck with the process. In some moments like this, the developers should stand out and guide the process through the correct direction. Because of the abundant analysis and calculations at hand, it is easier for the developers to push the work in an overall view. Therefore, for another project in the future, we would tried to be more active and straightforward and tried to be the main driver of the development. Product ‘Product’ describe the outcome of the development, which includes real estate, infrastructure, public space and etc. Our project team gone very much further in the product design, which we proposed the future living narrative in one day length and in one year length. The function of the real estate meet the reservation system of the municipality as well as the demand for future residents. Considering the infrastructure, the project also include a
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plan to improve the pedestrian experience and transportation efficiency by reconstruct the Binckhorstlaan. Two main public space were provided: AVR 2.0 and W0P-welcome, which serve both the local residents as the visitors outside Binckhorst. To summarise, all five pillars can be found in the project: circularity, efficient building, industrial, economic motor and inclusivity.
Second, the development process gone well in general. With the cooperation with each actors, most conflicts were avoided. According to van Bueren (2021), a fragmented decision-making process can be described as: Functional gaps + Management discontinuities = ineffective coordination; poor communication. At the beginning of the game, when most people did not really go into their own role and understand what should be done, some functional gaps and discontinuities happened. For example, aligning the personal vision from each parties took a long time and people did not realise the importance of negotiation and communication at that early stage. However, in the later phase, after people started to have a clear view of their own role and the project requirements, the frequency of communication increased largely. And people realised that we can not only discuss in the main group with more than 10 people, but also using Whatsapp to contact the exact person that you can have question with. This strategy has largely increase the communication efficiency and finnaly contribute to a higher level of coordination. From a developer perspective, there are several factors that play a key role in their decision-taking process. Achieving a successful real estate development requires complex organisational systems to bring together the necessary inputs at the correct time so as to create a desirable finished product (Adams and Tiesdell, 2012). In property development, the main inputs are Capital, Labour and Land. From these three, land will be at the center of every real estate project due to its inelastic nature. Furthermore, crucial aspects regarding land tenure, development rights, land-use, price and sourcing capaci-
ty will need to be solved to reach a viable project (Reed, 2021) (Adams et. al, 2012). For developers, these variables are constantly interacting with Location, Product and Time within their business model since the capacity to coordinate all this information is what translates into a potential successful development (Reed, 2021). Conclusion In conclusion, the experience in this urban redevelopment game is valuable to every actors involved. It gave us the opportunity to have a glimpse of the real construction world and understand the difficulties and barriers in the practice. As a developer in this game, the big responsibility for the development was the burden at the beginning, but turn into motivation at the end. During the game, the complexity and dynamic of the development process is something that I first experienced: everything that a developer proposed should be based on the calculation sheet. Some futuristic ideas can sound good to an architect, but if it will not make any profit, it shouldn’t be accepted by the developers. Also, trust and transparency is the core value of every communication. By trust, actors are able to share responsibility and gain confidence of the development. By transparency, the efficiency of the communication will be increased and it prevent conflicts and risks generated by information barriers.
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REFERENCES
Adams, D. and Tiesdell. S. (2012). Shaping Places: Urban Planning, Design and Development. London: Routledge Adams, D., & Tiesdell, S. (2013). Shaping places: Urban planning, design and development. Abingdon: Routledge. AHN. (2020). Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland. Retrieved from: https://www.ahn.nl/ ArcGIS. (2021). ArcGIS. Retrieved from: https://www.arcgis.com/index.html AVR. (2021, February 3). Aanbesteding Den Haag door AVR gewonnen. AVR - Too good to waste. Retrieved from: https://www.avr.nl/nl/innovaties/aanbesteding-den-haag-door-avr-gewonnen/
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Bofah, K. (n.d.). Definition of a Real Estate Investor. Retrieved from: https://homeguides.sfgate.com/definition-real-estate-investor-2968.html Bouwinvest. (2020). Real Estate Market Outlook 2021-2023. Retrieved from: https://www.bouwinvest.nl/ media/5193/bouwinvest-market-outlook-2021-2023.pdf Brightspace. (2021). Land Tenure Situation in the Binckhorst - Guide containing maps, photos and background information regarding the case area. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation CMHC. (2018). About Affordable Housing in Canada. CBRE. (2020). REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2020 The Netherlands. Retrieved from: http://cbre.vo.llnwd.net/grgservices/secure/CBRE_Real_Estate_Outlook_2020_ENG_Rapport.PDF?e=1624473754&h=e0e128c60a88ec40f7ec789076ed7404 CBRE. (2021). Market Outlook 2021 | CBRE The Netherlands - Contents. Retrieved from: https://real-estate-outlook.cbre.nl/2021-report-en/contents/ Circulair biz. (nd.). Circulaire bedrijventerreinen midden-Holland. Retrieved from: https://www.circulair. biz/ Deloitte. (2021, April 15). Real Estate Predictions 2021. Deloitte Netherlands. Retrieved from: https:// www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/real-estate/articles/real-estate-predictions.html (accessed 12 May 2021). Framework for Action. (2021, April 13). World Economic Forum. Retrieved from: https://www.weforum. org/realestate/framework-for-action Gemeente Den Haag. (2009). Op weg naar Duurzaam Den Haag, kadernota juni 2009. Retrieved from https://denhaag.raadsinformatie.nl/modules/13/overige_bestuurlijke_stukken/82051 Gemeente Den Haag. (2018). Circulair Den Haag. Transitie naar een duurzame economie. Global Property Guide. (2020). Strong house price rises continue in The Netherlands.
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Retrieved from: https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Netherlands/Price-History Haagse Milieu Straat (nd.). Retrieved from: https://www.nvhms.nl/ Harrabin, Roger. (5 August 2020). “Don’t demolish old buildings, urge architects”, BBC News, Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/ news/business-53642581 (accessed 12 May 2021). Heurkens, E. and Hobma, F. (2014). Private sector-led urban development projects: Comparative insights from planning practices in the Netherlands and the UK.pp. 350-369 Hobma, F. (2021). Powerpoint: Strategieën versnipperd grondeigendom. Delft University of Technology. Uploaded from Brightspace via https://brightspace.tudelft.nl/d2l/le/content/278697/viewContent/1951781/View International Energy Agency. (2018). Global Status Report: Towards a zero-emission, efficient and resilient buildings and construction sector, Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction. Retrieved from: https:// worldgbc.org/sites/default/files/2018%20GlobalABC%20Global%20Status%20Report.pdf (accessed 12 May 2021). Municipality of Den Haag. (2021). Retrieved from: https://denhaag.incijfers.nl/Jive?cat_open_code=c326 Oaktree Insights. (2016). strategy primer: investing in real estate. Retrieved from: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/oaktreeinsights_real-estate_final.pdf Reed, R. (2021). Property Development (7th ed.). Routledge. Retrieved from https://circularities.com/circulaire-economie-in-de-stad/ Rijksoverheid (2016). Nederland Circulair in 2050. Rijksbreed Programma Circulaire Economie. Retrieved from https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/circulaire-economie/documenten/rapporten/2016/09/14/bijlage-1-nederland-circulair-in-2050 SHIE. (n.d.). De Gasfabriek op de Binckhorst, het grootste industriële complex van Den Haag. Retrieved from: https://shie.nl/haagvaarder-68-de-gasfabriek-op-de-binckhorst-het-grootste-industriele-complexvan-den-haag/ Van Bueren, E. (2021). Lecture Theme 5: ‘Perspective’ - by Ellen van Bueren. TU Delft. VolkerWessels. (n.d.). BouwHubs for smart construction logistics - VolkerWessels. Copyright © 2021. Retrieved from: https://www.volkerwessels.com/en/projects/bouwhub W.H.J.W. Deelman. (1942). De Binckhorst en zijn vroegere bewoners, in Historia. Wéreldstad aan Zee. (2005). Wéreldstad aan Zee, Structuurvisie Den Haag 2020. Retrieved from: https:// denhaag.raadsinformatie.nl/document/3353495/1/Structuurvisie2020%2017%20november%202005%20 eindversie
43
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
APPENDIX 1 - REAL ESTATE PRICES
44
45
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
APPENDIX 2- LAND PRICES
46
47
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
APPENDIX 3 - CONTRACTS
PURCHASE AGREEMENT The undersigned: The municipality of The Hague, established in The Hague, pursuant to Article 171 of the Municipalities Act and the 2016 general mandate decision The Hague dated 10 May 2016, and the general sub-mandate decision The Hague 2016 dated December 31, 2015 represented by A.J.H. Franssen, team leader Land Department acting in implementation of the Decree dated. hereinafter referred to as “the seller” declares to have sold to the undersigned:
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Developer Represented by H. Yan., Director hereinafter referred to as “the purchaser”, who declares to have bought: plot number 8.4 & 8.5 located in the new Development plan Binckhorst in The Hague, with a total size of respectively 2.185 m2 and 1.546, for a leasehold period of 75 years, starting from 1st of January 2028. The parties declare that this purchase agreement has been entered into for a purchase price of € 4.388.106 (four million threehundredeightyeightthousand onehundredsixeuros), excluding sales tax, and subject to the terms, conditions and stipulations as notified in the appendix. On these plots a mixed-use building with housing and non-housing may be developed with a maximum of respectively 4.465 m2 and 10.420 m2 BVO. Date:
Date: 15/06/2021
A.J. H. Franssen Land Department
48
PURCHASE AGREEMENT The undersigned: The municipality of The Hague, established in The Hague, pursuant to Article 171 of the Municipalities Act and the 2016 general mandate decision The Hague dated 10 May 2016, and the general sub-mandate decision The Hague 2016 dated December 31, 2015 represented by A.J.H. Franssen, team leader Land Department acting in implementation of the Decree dated. hereinafter referred to as “the seller” declares to have sold to the undersigned: Developer Represented by H. Yan., Director hereinafter referred to as “the purchaser”, who declares to have bought: plot numbers 9.1 & 9.2 located in the new Development plan Binckhorst in The Hague, with a total size of respectively 5.425 m2 and 13.680 m2, for a leasehold period of 75 years, starting from 1st of January 2023. The parties declare that this purchase agreement has been entered into for a purchase price of € 35.749.239(thirtyfive million sevenhundredfourtyninethousand twohundredthirtynine euros), excluding sales tax, and subject to the terms, conditions and stipulations as notified in the appendix. On these plots a mixed-use building with housing and non-housing may be developed with a maximum of respectively 26.915 m2 and 40.373 m2 BVO. Date:
Date: 15/06/2021
A.J. H. Franssen Land Department
49
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
PURCHASE AGREEMENT The undersigned: The municipality of The Hague, established in The Hague, pursuant to Article 171 of the Municipalities Act and the 2016 general mandate decision The Hague dated 10 May 2016, and the general sub-mandate decision The Hague 2016 dated December 31, 2015 represented by A.J.H. Franssen, team leader Land Department acting in implementation of the Decree dated. hereinafter referred to as “the seller” declares to have sold to the undersigned:
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Developer Represented by H. Yan., Director hereinafter referred to as “the purchaser”, who declares to have bought: plot numbers 7.2 - 7.15 located in the new Development plan Binckhorst in The Hague, with a total size of 7.456 m2, for a leasehold period of 75 years, starting from 1st of January 2036. The parties declare that this purchase agreement has been entered into for a purchase price of € 500.627 ( ficehundredthousand sixhundredtwentyseven euros), excluding sales tax, and subject to the terms, conditions and stipulations as notified in the appendix. On these plots a mixed-use building with non-housing may be developed with a maximum of 10.574 m2 BVO. Date:
Date: 15/06/2021
A.J. H. Franssen Land Department
50
PURCHASE AGREEMENT The undersigned: The municipality of The Hague, established in The Hague, pursuant to Article 171 of the Municipalities Act and the 2016 general mandate decision The Hague dated 10 May 2016, and the general sub-mandate decision The Hague 2016 dated December 31, 2015 represented by A.J.H. Franssen, team leader Land Department acting in implementation of the Decree dated. hereinafter referred to as “the seller” declares to have sold to the undersigned: Developer Represented by H. Yan., Director hereinafter referred to as “the purchaser”, who declares to have bought: plot number 12.5 located in the new Development plan Binckhorst in The Hague, with a total size of respectively 16.265 m2, for a leasehold period of 75 years, starting from 1st of January 2024. The parties declare that this purchase agreement has been entered into for a purchase price of € 9.826.185 (nine million eughthundredtwenntysixthousand onehundredeightyfive euros), excluding sales tax, and subject to the terms, conditions and stipulations as notified in the appendix. On this plot a mixed-use building with non-housing may be developed with a maximum of respectively 20.588 m2 BVO. Date:
Date: 15/06/2021
A.J. H. Franssen Land Department
51
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
APPENDIX 4- CALCULATIONS
1,394
100%
0%
1,046
0
1,850
1.5
2,775
0%
100%
0
2,220
7,420
1.5
11,130
0%
100%
0
8,904
6,485
3.9
25,246
41%
59%
8,324
11,873
10.5% 8.3-8.5
2
1
16,822
4.0
67,288
40%
60%
20,186
32,298
1
High Mid Social
0% 100% 0%
office
50%
creative industr
50% 20% 5% 5% 10% 60% 0% 100% 0% 21% 9% 28% 28% 14% 65% 35% 0% 15% 35% 5% 5% 10% 30% 60% 40% 0% 55% 45%
other
SI museum catering retail other creative industr light industry
Res
High Mid Social
Res
High Mid Social
office SI sportcenter retail other catering creative industr light industry
11.5%
9.6
Res
creative industr amenity other community cen SI kindergarden SI gym
7.9%
9.1+9.2
Distributions
1.8
Segment
LFA (other)
762
Functions
LFA (housing)
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
7.2-7.15
Factor Others
14.5%
Factor Housing
1
GFA
7.1
5.4%
FSI
3
Functions & segments
Plot area (m2)
phasing
3.7
IRR
Plot # (own)
Plot information
3,578
4.0
14,312
70%
30%
7,514
3,435
Res
11.8%
High Mid Social office
other service industry 10.5
catering
1
5,702
8.0
45,616
50%
50%
17,106
18,246
13,726
1.5
20,589
0%
100%
0
16,471
3,022
0.0
0
0%
0%
0
0
54,176
93,448
16.6%
12.5
1-2
12.6
1
Total
52
7.7%
100% 0% 0% office 55% catering 5% other retail 10% service industry 30% catering 5% retail other 5% circular compl 90% Res
High Mid Social
% Rent
% Sale
rent price per m2/yr
Sales per m2
Parking
Land price
Total construction costs
Total development income
80
13
1,046
100%
0%
134
0
8
-140,613
-2,598,731
3,134,241
83
120 98
120 81
122 0 0
1,110
50%
50%
130
3,500
1,110 1,781 445 445 890 5,342
100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0%
0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 100%
170 200 180 150
4,500
100
8,324
30%
70%
130
3,800
50% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 50%
50% 100% 100% 100% 50% 100% 50%
180
117 63
2,477 1,061 3,334 3,334 1,667 14,040 6,146
4,500 5,000 4,500 5,000 5,000 6,000 3,800
43 29
4,845 11,304 1,615 1,615 3,230 9,689 5,184 2,330
40% 0% 100% 100% 0% 50% 0% 80%
60% 100% 0% 0% 100% 50% 100% 20%
180 250 200 180 150 180 175 126
1,889 1,546
100% 0%
0% 100%
150
17,106
20%
80%
172
6,000
10,036 912 1,825 5,474 824 824 14,824
30% 0% 0% 30% 100% 100% 40%
70% 100% 100% 70% 0% 0% 60%
180
5,000 4,500 4,500 4,800 3,000 3,000 6,500
140 0 0
505
78
250 111
200 250 250 400
3,000 3,000
3,500 4,500
NPV
LFA
Finance
Units (housing)
Rent / sale
Average sqm per type
Dwelling type
€
30,421.75
8
0
-4,342,203
7,651,592
€
691,443.25
29
-500,627
-39,722,881
48,182,936
€
2,742,755.13
135
-12,016,444
-77,859,205
97,545,557
€
1,727,942.81
382
0
-188,407,664
251,967,538
€
14,372,189.67
86
-715,600
-42,288,859
50,150,493
€
881,022.00
348
-4,855,222
-133,350,045
165,326,158
€
14,650,273.08
75
-12,968,185
-95,333,835
117,631,774
€
1,552,333.12
1,071
-31,056,078
-583,903,423
4,500 3,000 6,000 3,800 3,000
741,590,289
36,648,381
53
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 3.7 FO-B
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (commercial) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
0.80
% in building 100%
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
Indexation
Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan Data LFA
2011 1
Description (€ / m2 LFA)
1,046
134
price 230
amount 8
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income
54
8
5% 5% 128 110
LFA
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
(€ / m2 LFA)
6.5%
Potential Gross Income (PGI) 167,909 Gross exit yield (GEY) 6.5% Terminal property value at t = 10 2,583,220
2021 0
Phasing
Sales revenues Sale social units Sale mid units
segment high mid social
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget annual of total costs year of total costs
Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income
total units 13
3
3.90% 30% 3 70%
Other income Parking Effective income
LFA 1,046
117
parking (zone 2)
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
Development revenues
LFA Other
others
5% 5.4% 5.0%
Operating revenues Social Mid rent High-end Commercial Potential gross income
0.75
type residential
762 1.8 1,394 0.80 100% 0% 1,046 1,046 0 8
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
LFA Housing
2023 2
… …
2032 11 100%
% present units per segment 0% 100% 13
2033 12
2034 13
80% 50%
20% 50%
average dwelling s
LFA
% rent
% sale
80
1,046
100%
0%
100%
0%
2037 16
2038 17
2035 14
2036 15
rent price per m2/yr 134
rent pricerent price rice p pe 11
900
0
Totals
162,007
163,951
165,918
167,909
162,007
163,951
165,918
167,909
10% -16,201 145,806
5% -8,198 155,753
5% -8,296 157,622
5% -8,395 159,514
2,123 147,929
2,149 157,902
2,174 159,797
2,201 161,714
-7,290 -8,100 -1,669 -1,430 129,439
-7,788 -8,198 -1,669 -1,430 138,817
-7,881 -8,296 -1,669 -1,430 140,520
-7,976 -8,395 -1,669 -1,430 142,244
55
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Sale parking Sale rental units to investor Total sale revenues Total net development income
Development costs
Data
Description
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
total land costs Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 yr €/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) 6% of acquisition price Cost recovery Demolishment per GFA Land preparation €/m2 plot Transport Public space €/m2 plot Total land & site investments Construction costs Residential construction costs (renovation) Green space construction costs Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM excellent Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
450
300
per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per m2 GFA per m2 GFA
18% 20%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
7%
of hard construction cost
Total construction costs
-140,613
-140,613
-140,613
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service Total development costs (construction + financing)
-140,613
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
56
30% of total construction costs 70% of total construction costs
-140,613
2,583,220 2,583,220 129,439
138,817
140,520
2,725,464
3,134,241 Totals
-1,264,136
-341,317
-70,710 -1,334,846
-19,092 -360,408
-240,272 -266,969 -507,241
-64,874 -72,082 -136,955
-93,439 -93,439
-25,229 -25,229
-1,935,526
-522,592
-30,405
-30,405
-30,405
-30,405
-30,405
-30,405
-1,965,931
-552,997
-30,405
779,619 -1,819,112
-1,935,526 -1,849,517
-2,598,731
-779,619
-393,153 99,034
138,817 -671,207
140,520 140,520
2,725,464 2,725,464
NPV
€30,422 -€353.38
57
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 7.1 PL-B
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (commercial) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
0.80
% in building
LFA
100%
2,220
parking (zone 3) others
121
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
Indexation
Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10 Potential Gross Income (PGI) Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
2021 0
Phasing
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan Data LFA 555 1,110
Description
price
amount
(€ / m2 LFA) € 130 170
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income
58
8
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget
3.90% 30% 3 70%
Other income Parking Effective income
total units
1
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
Development revenues
LFA Other
others
10% 14.5% 16.8%
Operating revenues office creative industry Potential gross income
0.75
type residential
1,850 1.5 2,775 0.00 0% 100% 2,220 0 2,220 8
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
LFA Housing
Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income
5% 5% 128 110
Sales revenues
LFA
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
2
(€ / m LFA)
6.5%
280,204 6.5% 4,310,827
2022 1 100% 80%
2023 2 20% 70%
segment % present units per saverage dw high mid social office 50% creative industry 50%
2024 3
2025 4
2026 5
2027 6
LFA
% rent
% sale
1,110 1,110
50% 100%
50% 0%
0%
100%
rent price rent pr rent sale price per sqm
130 170
3,500
2028 7
30%
Totals 73,892 193,256 267,148
74,779 195,575 270,354
75,676 197,922 273,598
76,584 200,297 276,881
77,503 202,701 280,204
8% -21,372 245,776
5% -13,518 256,836
5% -13,680 259,918
5% -13,844 263,037
5% -14,010 266,194
245,776
256,836
259,918
263,037
266,194
-12,289 -13,357
-12,842 -13,518
-12,996 -13,680
-13,152 -13,844
-13,310 -14,010
220,130
230,477
233,242
236,041
238,874
59
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Sale office Sale parking Sale rental units to investor Total sale revenues
555 121
3,500 1,500
1,392,580 185,440 1,578,020
Total net development income
Development costs
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract p Acquisition price (extend lease contract) Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) Demolishment Land preparation Transport Public space Total land & site investments Construction costs Residential construction costs Office construction costs (renovate) service industry costs (renovate) Sports construction costs Green space construction costs Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM excellent Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
1,578,020 Data
0
Description
total land costs
€/m2 plot €/m2 plot 6% of acquisition price per GFA €/m2 plot
-1,196,612
€/m2 plot -1,196,612
850 500
320
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per slot per sqm
-1,018,980 -599,400
-275,125 -161,838
-41,718 -1,660,098
-436,963
18% 25%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-298,818 -415,025 -713,842
-78,653 -109,241 -187,894
7%
of hard construction cost
-116,207 -116,207
-30,587 -30,587
-2,490,147
-655,444
-50,804
-50,804
-50,804
-50,804
-2,540,951
-706,248
Total construction costs
0
-1,196,612
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service Total development costs (construction + financing)
0
-1,196,612
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
60
30% of total construction costs 70% of total construction costs
1,302,661 -3,039,542
0
-1,196,612
-2,490,147 -3,090,346
922,576 1,527,216
603,982
603,982
0
0
0
4,310,827
824,112
230,477
233,242
236,041
4,549,700
7,651,592
Totals
0
-4,342,203
-50,804 -50,804 -50,804
-1,302,661
824,112 -529,353
230,477 230,477
233,242 233,242
236,041 236,041
4,549,700 4,549,700
NPV
€691,443 €825,245
61
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 7.2-7.15 TL-O (2035)
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (others) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
LFA Housing
0.75
LFA Other
0.80
type residential
7,420 1.5 11,130
% in building
LFA
100%
8,904
Commercial 0% 100% 8,904 0 8,904 29
parking (zone 3)
442
3
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
6% 10.5% 10.7%
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
3.90% 30% 3 70%
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
6.5%
Indexation Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan
Development revenues
Operating revenues SI museum catering retail creative industry industrial space (light) Potential gross income
Potential Gross Income (PGI) Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 1
2021 0
Phasing
Data LFA 1,781
2022 1
Description
(€ / m2 LFA) € 200
890 0
€ 180 € 150
price
amount
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income Other income Parking Effective income
62
total units
Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance
5%
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year
647,803 6.5% 9,966,198
…. …
2035 14 100% 80%
segment high mid social SI museum catering retail creative indust industrial space (l
% present
units per saverage d
20% 5% 5% 10% 60%
LFA
% rent
% sale
1,781 445 445 890 5,342
100% 0% 0% 100% 0%
0% 100% 100% 0% 100%
0
100%
29
2036 15
2037 16
20% 70%
30%
2038 17
2039 18
2040 19
rent price prele price per sq
200
180 150
3000 3000 4500
2041 20
Totals 425,944
431,056
436,228
441,463
446,761
191,675 0 617,619
193,975 0 625,031
196,303 0 632,531
198,658 0 640,121
201,042 0 647,803
8% -49,410 568,210
5% -31,252 593,779
2% -12,651 619,880
2% -12,802 627,319
2% -12,956 634,847
568,210
593,779
619,880
627,319
634,847
-28,410
-29,689
-30,994
-31,366
-31,742
63
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income
5% 128 110
of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
Sales revenues SI museum catering retail creative industry industrial space (light) Sale parking Sale rental units to investor Total sale revenues
LFA
(€ / m2 LFA)
445 445
3,000 3,000
5342 442
4,500 1,700
Data
Description
Total net development income
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Development costs
total land costs Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 y€/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) 6% of acquisition price Demolishment per GFA Land preparation €/m2 plot Transport Public space €/m2 plot Total land & site investments Construction costs SI museum (renovate) catering (renovate) retail (renovate) creative industry (renovate) industrial space (light) (renovate) Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM excellent Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
1200 400 420 700 800
-500,627
-500,627
-6,276,66 -523,055 -549,208 -1,830,69 -12,553,3
320
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per slot per sqm
15% 20%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-3,322,20 -4,429,60 -7,751,79
5%
of hard construction cost
-1,107,40 -1,107,40
-415,044 -22,147,9
Total construction costs
-31,507,8
Debtproperty services Net cash flow Interest payments Net equity cash flow Principal payments Total debt service
-32,008,4 -464,758 -28,771,4
Total development costs (construction + financing)
-31,972,5
-464,758
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
64
30% of total construction costs 70% of total construction costs
11,916,8 -27,806,0
-30,881
-31,252
-31,627
-32,006
-32,390
508,918
532,839
557,260
563,947
570,714
1,597,291 4,236,749 28,751,242 897,777 35,483,059 35,483,059
9,966,198 508,918
532,839
557,260
563,947
10,536,913
48,182,936 Totals
7
7
65 5 8 94 331
-1,694,700 -141,225 -148,286 -494,287 -3,389,399
4 998
-5,867,897
00 00 99
-880,185 -1,173,579 -2,053,764
00 00
-293,395 -293,395
824
-8,215,056
451 8 401
27,268,003 -464,758 35,018,302
508,918 -464,758 -11,872,704
8
-464,758
-464,758
582
-8,679,814
-464,758
864 016
-39,722,881 532,839 532,839
557,260 557,260
563,947 563,947
10,536,913 10,536,913
€2,742,755.13 €2,298,465.72
-11,916,864
NPV 65
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 8.3-8.5 TL-B (2025) Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (commercial) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
LFA Housing
0.75
LFA Other
0.80
type residential
6,485 3.9 25,246
others
% in building 41%
LFA 8,324
59%
11,873
total units 100
segment % present units per segment high mid 100% 100 social creative industr 21% amenity 9% SI community cen 28% SI kindergarden 28% SI gym 14%
41% 59% 20,197 8,324 11,873 135
average dwelling 83
LFA 8,324 2,477 1,061 3,334 3,334 1,667
135 1122
parking (zone 3)
720
2
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
7% 7.9% 1.7%
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
6.90% 70% 5 30%
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
75
onground
2023 2
2024 3
60
under
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
6.5%
Indexation Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
Potential Gross Income (PGI) Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
871,496 6.5% 13,407,633
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Leasecontract end 2021 0
Phasing
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan
Development revenues
Operating revenues Mid housing creative industry service industry gym Potential gross income
Data LFA 2,497 1,238 834
Description
price
amount
2022 1
2025 4
2026 5
2027 6
2028 7 100% 70%
(€ / m2 LFA) € 130 € 180 € 250
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income Other income Parking Effective income Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income Sales revenues Mid housing creative industry gym amenity SI community center SI kindergarden sale parking Total sale revenues
5% 5% 128 110
LFA 5827 1238 834 1061 3334 3334 1842
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
(€ / m2 LFA) 3,800 4,500 5,000 5,000 4,500 5,000 1,700
Total net development income
Development costs
Data
Land and site investments cost recovery Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 yr) Acquisition price (extend lease contract) Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) Demolishment Land preparation Transport Public space Total land & site investments Construction costs Mid housing creative industry amenity SI community center SI kindergarden SI gym Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs
66
Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM good
1200 1200 1200 1000 1200 1100
Description
total land costs
€/m2 plot €/m2 plot 6% of acquisition price per GFA €/m2 plot
-12,016,444
€/m2 plot -12,016,444
830 300
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per sqm per sqm
18% 20%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-14,979,16 -4,456,579 -1,909,963 -4,999,678 -5,999,613 -2,749,823
-716,927 -403,947 -36,215,69
-5,432,355 -1,810,785
% rent
% sale
rent price per m2/yr
30%
70%
130
50% 0% 0% 0% 50%
50% 100% 100% 100% 50%
180
0%
100%
2029 8
2030 9
30% 35%
15%
rent price per m2/month rent price per unit 11
900
250
2031 10
2032 11
2033 12
sale price per sqm
arking norm Parking unit
3800
0.6
60
4500 5000 4500 5000 5000
1.45 0.9 0.9 1 2.7
36 10 30 33 45
pe of parki/undergrou result normal underground double use double use hared mobil noraml hared mobil
onground onground onground onground onground
60 18 5 8 33 11
2034 13
50%
Totals 356,442 245,207 229,241 830,890
360,720 248,149 231,992 840,860
365,048 251,127 234,776 850,951
369,429 254,141 237,593 861,162
373,862 257,190 240,444 871,496
20% -166,178 664,712
10% -84,086 756,774
5% -42,548 808,403
5% -43,058 818,104
5% -43,575 827,921
664,712
756,774
808,403
818,104
827,921
-33,236 -41,544 -12,840 -11,002 566,090
-37,839 -42,043 -12,840 -11,002 653,051
-40,420 -42,548 -12,840 -11,002 701,594
-40,905 -43,058 -12,840 -11,002 710,299
-41,396 -43,575 -12,840 -11,002 719,108
8,525,618 2,145,560 1,604,685 2,043,391 5,776,867 6,418,741 1,205,979 27,720,840
3,697,682 930,560 695,975 886,248 2,505,510 2,783,900 523,050 12,022,924
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12,623,197 3,176,759 2,375,928 3,025,484 8,553,342 9,503,713 1,785,595 41,044,019
27,720,840
12,589,014
653,051
41,745,612
13,407,633 710,299
14,126,742
97,545,557 Totals
67 9 3 8 3 3
-6,933,214 -2,062,760 -884,040 -2,314,137 -2,776,964 -1,272,775
7 7 97
-27,653 -186,970 -16,458,512
5 5
-2,468,777 -822,926
67
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
-7,243,139
5%
of hard construction cost
Total construction costs
-1,810,785 -1,810,785 -12,016,444
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service
-45,269,62
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
Total development costs (construction + financing)
-12,016,444
-49,030,22
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Return analysis
68
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
70% of total construction costs 30% of total construction costs
54,501,44 -23,357,76
-12,016,444.00
-45,269,62 -27118361.
9
-3,291,702
5 5
-822,926 -822,926
21
-20,573,140
-77,859,205
0
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
0
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
20
-24,333,740
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
-3,760,600
43 61
20.87 .07
-54,501,443
7,147,699.49 23960239.93
12,589,013.89 8828414.289
653,050.70 -3107548.899
41,745,612.23 -16516430.8
710,298.80 710298.8014
14,126,741.99 14126741.99
€1,727,942.81 -€2,085,839.41
69
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 9.1+9.2 FO-M-R (2030) Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (others) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
LFA 20,186
60%
32,298
5725 497 5229
parking (zone 3) 1
6.90% 70% 5 30%
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
Indexation
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
% in building 40%
Commercial
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
total units 180
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan Data LFA
382 33 349
segment high mid social office SI sportcenter retail catering creative industry light industry
% pr 65 35
15 35 5 5 10 30
onground under
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
6.5%
Potential Gross Income (PGI) 2,392,497 Gross exit yield (GEY) 6.5% Terminal property value at t = 10 36,807,650
2021 0
Phasing
Development revenues
0.80
40% 60% 52,485 20,186 32,298 382
8% 11.5% 9.7%
Operating revenues Social Mid rent High-end office SI sportcenter retail catering creative industry light industry Potential gross income
0.75
LFA Other
type residential
16,822 4.0 67,288
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
LFA Housing
2022 1
2023 2 100% 30%
2024 3
20
40%
30 50
Description
(€ / m2 LFA)
3,073
111
1,938
180
1,615 1,615
200 180
4,845
180
price 230
amount 0
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income Other income Parking Effective income Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income Sales revenues Sale high units Sale mid units Sale parking office SI sportcenter
70
5% 5% 128 110
LFA 14040 3073 5725 2,907 11,304
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
(€ / m2 LFA) 6,000 3,800 1,500 3,500 4,500
44,17 6,12 4,50 5,33 26,67
resent 5% 5%
units per segmeaverage dwelling size per s LFA 117 120 14,040 63 98 6,146
% rent 0% 50%
% sale 100% 50%
4,845 11,304 1,615 1,615 3,230 9,689
40% 0% 100% 100% 0% 50%
60% 100% 0% 0% 100% 50%
0%
100%
2029 8
2030 9
5% 5% 5% 5% 0% 0%
025 4
2026 5
2027 6
0% 0%
30%
20%
78,444 24,441 03,925 35,578 77,890
2028 7
rent price per m2/yr 111 180
250 200 180 150 180
rent p rent price pe price per s 1750 6000 9 900 3800 3500
4500
4500 3000 1500
Totals
356,826
361,108
365,441
369,826
374,264
365,868
370,259
374,702
379,198
383,749
338,767 304,890
342,832 308,549
346,946 312,251
351,109 315,998
355,323 319,790
914,670 2,281,022
925,647 2,308,394
936,754 2,336,095
947,995 2,364,128
959,371 2,392,497
20% -456,204 1,824,817
10% -230,839 2,077,554
5% -116,805 2,219,290
5% -118,206 2,245,921
5% -119,625 2,272,872
0 1,824,817
0 2,077,554
0 2,219,290
2,245,921
2,272,872
-91,241 -114,051 -23,112 -19,804 1,576,610
-103,878 -115,420 -23,112 -19,804 1,815,341
-110,964 -116,805 -23,112 -19,804 1,948,605
-112,296 -118,206 -23,112 -19,804 1,972,503
-113,644 -119,625 -23,112 -19,804 1,996,688
26,825,151 3,718,761 2,734,784 3,239,763 16,198,815
18,098,035 2,508,924 1,845,067 2,185,760 10,928,800
71
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
retail catering creative industry light industry Total sale revenues
3,230 4,845
4,500 3,000
7,62 7,62 102,0
Total net development income
Development costs
102,0 Data
Description
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
total land costs Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 y€/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) 6% of acquisition price Cost recovery Demolishment per GFA Land preparation €/m2 plot Transport Public space €/m2 plot Total land & site investments Construction costs high unit construction costs mid unit construction costs office construction costs SI sportcenter retail catering creative industry light industry Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM very good Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
-35,749,239
-35,749,239
-7,346,170 -3,955,630 -2,542,905 -7,416,806 -1,059,544 -1,059,544 -2,542,905 -1,695,270 -1,518,631 -55,605 -29,193,010
-10,578,485 -5,696,107 -3,661,783 -10,680,201 -1,525,743 -1,525,743 -3,661,783 -2,441,189 -2,186,829 -80,071 -42,037,935
-8,56 -4,61 -2,96 -8,65 -1,23 -1,23 -2,96 -1,97 -1,77 -64 -34,0
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-5,254,742 -5,838,602 -11,093,344
-7,566,828 -8,407,587 -15,974,415
-6,12 -6,81 -12,9
of hard construction cost
-2,043,511 -2,043,511
-2,942,655 -2,942,655
-2,38 -2,38
-42,329,865
-60,955,005
-49,3
-9,100,090
-9,100,090
-9,10
-9,100,090
-9,100,090
-9,10
-51,429,955
-70,055,096
-58,4
-60,955,005 -9,100,090
52,69 92,96
1400 1200 1200 1500 1500 1500 1800 1200 830 320
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm
per m2 GFA per m2 GFA
18% 20%
7%
Total construction costs
-35,749,239
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service Total development costs (construction + financing)
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
72
70% of total construction costs 30% of total construction costs
131,885,365 -56,522,299
-35,749,239
-42,329,865 -65,622,389
0 0 22,254 22,254 064,786
0 0 4,628,233 4,628,233 61,973,738
0 0 3,122,514 3,122,514 41,811,615
0
0
36,807,650
064,786
63,550,348
43,626,957
1,948,605
1,972,503
38,804,338
251,967,538 Totals
68,573 13,847 66,044 50,963 35,852 35,852 66,044 77,363 71,332 4,858 050,727
29,131 10,145 939,276
83,551 83,551 -188,407,664
373,554
00,090
-9,100,090
-9,100,090
00,090
-9,100,090
-9,100,090
473,645
-9,100,090
-9,100,090
91,232 64,696
-131,885,365
63,550,348 54,450,258
43,626,957 -97,358,498
1,948,605 1,948,605
1,972,503 1,972,503
38,804,338 38,804,338
NPV
€14,372,190 €2,340,713.26
73
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 9.6 PL-B-R Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI
3,578 4.0
Gross floor area (GFA)
14,312
MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others)
LFA Housing
0.75
LFA Other
0.80
type residential
% in building 70%
LFA 7,514
30%
3,435
total units 72
segment high mid
% present 60% 40%
social others
office service industry (amenti
70% 30%
Lettable floor area (LFA) (total)
10,949
LFA (housing) LFA (commercial) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
7,514 3,435 86
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
10% 11.8% 4.9%
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
6.90% 70% 5 30%
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
1294 842 451
parking (zone 3)
55% 45%
86
56 30
under on
2023 2
2024 3
1
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
6.5%
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Indexation Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
Potential Gross Income (PGI) Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
2021 0
Phasing
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan
Development revenues
Operating revenues Social Mid rent High-end office Potential gross income
504,889 6.5% 7,767,520
2022 1
50%
Data LFA
2025 4
50% 50%
50%
Description (€ / m2 LFA)
1,864
126
1,889
150
price 230
amount
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income Other income Parking Effective income Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income Sales revenues Sale high Sale mid units Sale parking Sale service industry Total sale revenues
5% 5% 128 110
LFA 5184 466 1294 1,546
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
(€ / m2 LFA) 6,000 3,800 1,200 3,000
Total net development income
Development costs
Data
Description
Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 yr €/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot
74
total land costs
16,310,504 917,580 804,608 2,403,017 20,435,708
16,571,472 928,591 814,263 2,431,853 20,746,179
20,435,708
20,746,179
units per segment 43 29
2026 5
average dwelling size per segment 120 81
2027 6
LFA 5,184 2,330
% rent 0% 80%
% sale 100% 20%
1,889 1,546
100% 0%
0% 100%
0
100%
2029 8
2030 9
2028 7
rent price per m2/yr 175 126
rent price rent priceale price per sq 15 1750 6000 11 850 3800
150
3000
%
Totals
246,493
249,451
252,444
246,493 492,986
249,451 498,902
252,444 504,889
10% -49,299 443,688
5% -24,945 473,957
5% -25,244 479,644
0 443,688
0 473,957
0 479,644
-22,184 -24,649 -9,245 -7,921 379,688
-23,698 -24,945 -9,245 -7,921 408,148
-23,982 -25,244 -9,245 -7,921 413,251
0
0
7,767,520 7,767,520
0
0
379,688
408,148
8,180,771
0
0
50,150,493 Totals
75
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) compesate Demolishment Land preparation Transport Public space Total land & site investments Construction costs high unit construction costs mid unit construction costs office construction costs service industry Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM very good Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
-715,600 per GFA €/m2 plot €/m2 plot -715,600
1800 1300 1800 1300 830 320
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per m2 GFA per m2 GFA
18% 20%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
7%
of hard construction cost
Total construction costs
-715,600
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service Total development costs (construction + financing)
-715,600
-6,310,149 -3,038,220 -2,478,987 -1,464,856
-6,814,961 -3,281,278 -2,677,306 -1,582,045
-407,769 -84,256 -13,784,237
-440,390 -90,996 -14,886,976
-2,481,163 -2,756,847 -5,238,010
-2,679,656 -2,977,395 -5,657,051
-964,897 -964,897
-1,042,088 -1,042,088
0 0
-19,987,144
-21,586,115
0
-2,042,552
-2,042,552
-2,042,552
-2,042,552
-2,042,552
-2,042,552
-22,029,696
-23,628,667
-2,042,552
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
76
6% of acquisition price
70% of total construction costs 30% of total construction costs
29,602,201 -12,686,658
-715,600
-19,987,144 -14,729,210
-29,602,201
-1,150,407 18,393,156
20,746,179 -10,898,575
0 0 -42,288,859
0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0
379,688 379,688
408,148 408,148
8,180,771 8,180,771
NPV
€881,022
77
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 10.5 FO-B
Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others)
LFA Housing
0.75
LFA Other
0.80
type residential
5,702 8.0 45,616
% in building 50%
LFA 17,106
50%
18,246
others 50% 50%
5220 274 4946
parking (zone 2) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (others)
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
35,352 17,106 18,246
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
6.80% 70% 5 30%
annual of total costs year of total costs
Indexation 3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
on under
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan Data LFA
6.5%
Potential Gross Income (PGI) 1,566,556 Gross exit yield (GEY) 6.5% Terminal property value at t = 1024,100,856
2021 0
Phasing
Development revenues
%
1 7% 16.6% 27.3%
Operating revenues Social Mid rent High-end office service industry
348 18 330
segment high mid social office catering retail service industry
348
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
total units 140
2022 1
2023 2 100% 30%
2024 3 40% 20%
Description
(€ / m2 LFA)
3,421 3,011 1,642
172 180 200
price 230
amount
Potential gross income Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income Other income Parking Effective income Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income Sales revenues Sale high sale office sale retail
78
5% 5% 128 110
LFA 13685 7025 1825
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
(€ / m2 LFA) 6,000 5,000 4,500
17,020,066 7,280,806 1,702,007
43, 18, 4,3
present 100% 0% 0% 55% 5% 10% 30%
units per segment 140 0 0
2025 4
2026 5
30% 50%
30%
,060,767 ,420,439 306,077
average dwelling size 122 0
2027 6
LFA 17,106 0
% rent 20%
% sale 80%
10,036 912 1,825 5,474
30% 0% 0% 30% 0
70% 100% 100% 70% 100%
2028 7
2029 8
2030 9
rent price per m2/yr 172
180
200
rent price rent pricsale price per sqm 14 1750 6000
5000
4500 4500 4800 1500
Totals
616,736 568,402 344,486
624,137 575,223 348,620
631,627 582,126 352,803
1,529,624
1,547,980
1,566,556
10% -152,962 1,376,662
5% -77,399 1,470,581
5% -78,328 1,488,228
0 1,376,662
0 1,470,581
0 1,488,228
-68,833 -76,481 -17,976 -15,403 1,197,969
-73,529 -77,399 -17,976 -15,403 1,286,274
-74,411 -78,328 -17,976 -15,403 1,302,110
26,146,498 11,184,891 2,614,650
0 0 0
79
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
sale catering Sale parking Sale service industry Total sale revenues
912 5220 3,832
4,500 1,500 4,800
Total net development income
Development costs
Data
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM very good Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
2, 4, 9, 81
32,289,474
81
Description
total land costs Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 y€/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) 6% of acquisition price cost recovery Demolishment per GFA Land preparation €/m2 plot Transport Public space €/m2 plot Total land & site investments Construction costs high unit construction costs office construction costs catering construction costs retail construction costs service industry Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs
851,003 1,623,097 3,812,495 32,289,474
-4,855,222
-4,855,222
-11,971,463 -6,584,305 -478,859 -957,717 -3,112,580
-17,238,907 -9,481,399 -689,556 -1,379,113 -4,482,116
-13 -7, -5 -1, -3,
830 320
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per m2 GFA per m2 GFA
-1,436,612 -30,647 -24,572,183
-2,068,721 -44,132 -35,383,943
-1, -28
18% 20%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-4,422,993 -4,914,437 -9,337,429
-6,369,110 -7,076,789 -13,445,898
-5, -5, -10
7%
of hard construction cost
-1,720,053 -1,720,053
-2,476,876 -2,476,876
-2, -2,
-35,629,665
-51,306,717
-41
-6,347,462
-6,347,462
-6,
-6,347,462
-6,347,462
-6,
-41,977,127
-57,654,179
-47
1500 1500 1200 1200 1300
Total construction costs
-4,855,222
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service Total development costs (construction + financing)
-4,855,222
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
80
70% of total construction costs 30% of total construction costs
93,345,031 -40,005,013
-4,855,222
-35,629,665 -46,352,475.51
-65
-19,017,244 25,942,011.46
40 9,6
,153,038 ,106,435 ,645,612 1,692,368
1,307,325 2,493,428 5,856,815 23,457,108
0 0 0 0
24,100,856 24,100,856
0
0
1,692,368
24,655,077
1,286,274
25,402,965
0
0
165,326,158 Totals
3,963,514 ,679,933 558,541 ,117,081 ,630,514
,675,664 -35,747 8,660,994
,158,979 ,732,199 0,891,178
,006,270 ,006,270
0 0
1,558,441
0
-133,350,045
,347,462
,347,462
7,905,903
5,723,905
0,133,927 621,001.44
24,655,077 24,655,077.16
1,286,274 1,286,274.03
25,402,965 25,402,965.49
NPV
€14,650,273 €23,845,694.41
81
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 12.5 FO-M Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Gross floor area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (others) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
0.80
100%
16,471
1121 315 806
parking (zone 2)
16,471 75
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
2021 0
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan Data LFA 824 824 5,930
Description
price 230
amount 21
2
(€ / m LFA) 250 250 400
Potential gross income Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income
Sales revenues Sale catering sale retail Sale circular complex Sale parking Total sale revenues
5% 5% 128 110
LFA
9000 806
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
(€ / m2 LFA) 3,000 3,000 6,500 1,700
Total net development income
Development costs
82
on under
Data
Description
6.5%
Potential Gross Income (PGI) 3,026,046 Gross exit yield (GEY) 6.5% Terminal property value at t = 10 46,554,555
Phasing
Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Sewerage tax Water tax Net operating income
75 21 54
segment high mid social catering retail SI circular complex
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget
3.90% 30% 5 70%
Other income Parking Effective income
total units
1-2
Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
Development revenues
LFA
100% 16,471
7% 7.7% 7.6%
Operating revenues catering retail SI circular complex
% in building
Commercial
Indexation
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
0.75
LFA Other
type residential
13,726 1.5 20,589
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return
Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
LFA Housing
total land costs
2022 1
2023 2
2024 3 100% 50%
% present
units per segment
average dwelling size
5% 5% 90%
2025 4
2026 5
2027 6
40% 50%
10% 0%
50%
LFA
% rent
% sale
824 824 14,824
100% 100% 40%
0% 0% 60%
100% 0%
0% 100%
2029 8
2030 9
2028 7
rent price per m2/yr
250
250 400
rent pricee price per s
3000
3000 6500
1700
Totals 218,543 218,543 2,517,621
221,166 221,166 2,547,832
223,820 223,820 2,578,406
2,954,708
2,990,164
3,026,046
10% -295,471 2,659,237
5% -149,508 2,840,656
5% -151,302 2,874,744
5,127 2,664,364
5,189 2,845,844
5,251 2,879,995
-132,962 -147,735
-142,033 -149,508
-143,737 -151,302
2,383,667
2,554,303
2,584,955
0 0 30,679,475 718,634 31,398,109
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 31,420,200 735,985 32,156,185
0
46,554,555 46,554,555
0
31,398,109
0
34,539,852
2,554,303
49,139,510
0
117,631,774 Totals
83
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 yr €/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) 6% of acquisition price land price Demolishment of plot 12.6 per GFA Land preparation €/m2 plot Transport Public space 800 €/m2 plot Total land & site investments Construction costs catering retail circular complex green space Site preparation Underground parking On ground parking Total hard construction costs
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM excellent Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
1200 1200 2100
-9,826,185 -3,142,000
-12,968,185
800 320
per sqm per sqm per sqm per sqm of land acquisition per m2 GFA per m2 GFA
18% 25%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-4,776,398 -6,633,886 -11,410,284
5%
of hard construction cost
-1,326,777 -1,326,777
Total construction costs
-778,086 -778,086 -24,509,719
-406,161 -63,492 -26,535,544
-12,968,185
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service
-39,272,606
-1,115,406 -1,115,406
Total development costs (construction + financing)
-12,968,185
-40,388,011
Investment / cash balance Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
Return analysis
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
84
30% of total construction costs 70% of total construction costs
28,600,151 -66,733,685
-12,968,185
-39,272,606 -67,849,090.55
-672,267 -672,267 -21,176,397
-181,512 -181,512 -5,717,627
-350,923 -54,857 -22,926,710
-94,749 -14,811 -6,190,212
-4,126,808 -5,731,678 -9,858,485
-1,114,238 -1,547,553 -2,661,791
-1,146,336 -1,146,336
-309,511 -309,511
-33,931,531
-9,161,513
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-35,046,937
-10,276,919
-1,115,406
-1,115,406
-95,333,835
-28,600,151
-2,533,422 30,282,703.30
-9,161,513 -1,115,405.87
34,539,852 33,424,446
2,554,303 -27,161,253.01
49,139,510 49,139,509.69
NPV
€1,552,333 €1,006,699.29
85
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Plot 12.6 FO-B-R (2028) Data about plot Plot area (m2) FSI Built up area (GFA) MXI Factor LFA (housing) Factor LFA (others) Lettable floor area (LFA) (total) LFA (housing) LFA (commercial) Parking units Parking space incl. transport space (m2) Dwelling size factors Phase
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
Expected rates of return (IRR's) Property return Equity return Debt & Equity Financing Loan: interest rate Debt financing Loan: maturity date Equity financing
6,000
0.80
% in building 0%
LFA 0
0%
0
parking
Operating expenses Repairs & maintenance Property management Property tax Sewerage tax Water tax
86
seg h m so cat retail (conv
0
Quick & dirty investment budget calculation Market value (rent at t=0) Gross initial yield (GIY or BAR) 5.5% Investment budget
18%
0% 100%
annual of total costs year of total costs
3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 8.0% 6.0%
Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation Annual inflation
Potential Gross Income (PGI) - social Gross exit yield (GEY) Terminal property value at t = 10
2021 0
Data LFA
Description
price
amount
6.5%
Potential Gross Income (PGI) - mid and social Gross exit yield (GEY) 6.5% Terminal property value at t = 10
(€ / m2 LFA)
Vacancy rate % Vacancy allowance Gross income Other income Parking Effective income
total units 0
1
Phasing: % of land acquisition Phasing: % of hard & soft construction costs Phasing: % of sale revenues Phasing: Paying back loan
Development revenues
LFA Other
others
0% 0% 0 0 0
Phasing
Operating revenues Social Mid rent High-end Commercial Potential gross income
0.75
type residential
3,022
Indexation Residential price development index Commercial price development index Economic inflation Consturction cost index Discount rate
LFA Housing
of gross rent income, paid at end of the year of potential gross income, paid at end of the year of development income, paid at the end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year per dwelling, paid at end of the year
2022 1
2023 2
2
10 10
gment % present units per saverage dwelling size per segment high mid ocial tering venient shop)
LFA
2024 3 00% 00%
2028 7
2025 4
2026 5
2027 6
% rent
% sale
2029 8
2030 9
rent price rent price price per s
0 0
Totals
87
ROLE FINAL REPORT - AR2R025 Urban (Re)Development Game: Integrating Planning, Design and Property Development
Net operating income Sales revenues Sale social units Sale mid units Sale rental units to investor Total sale revenues
LFA
2
(€ / m LFA)
Total net development income
Development costs
Data
Description
DEVELOPER B REALINVEST
total land costs Land and site investments Acquisition price (first 5 years lease contract per m2/5 yr €/m2 plot Acquisition price (extend lease contract) €/m2 plot Transfer tax (overdrachtsbelasting) 6% of acquisition price Demolishment 20 per GFA Land preparation €/m2 plot Transport Public space €/m2 plot Total land & site investments Construction costs Green space construction costs Total hard construction costs Soft construction costs(additional) BREEAM excellent Total soft construction costs Developer's fee Developer's fee Total Developer's fee
per sqm
18%
of total hard construction cost of total hard construction cost
-43
of hard construction cost
-16 -16
7%
Total development costs (construction + financing)
Investment / cash balance
Return analysis
88
-2,4 -2,4
-43
-3,1
Debt services Interest payments Principal payments Total debt service
Net property cash flow Net equity cash flow
-12
800
Total construction costs
Investment Debt Equity (equity-per-date)
-12
of total construction costs of total construction costs
0
0
0
0
0
0 Totals
20,000
20,000
417,600 417,600
35,168
35,168
69,232 69,232
142,000
NPV
89