THE MARKETPLACE THIRD-QUARTER REPORT PERFORMANCE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN SELECT CITIES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES
2015 Q3 MARKET REPORT
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[1]
2015, A STRONG YEAR IS IT SUSTAINABLE OR ARE THERE CHANGES AHEAD? Recently we’ve seen double-digit drops in inventory and doubledigit increases in sales, an unsustainable long-term pattern. Like our fall weather, our prediction for the future is cloudy. The short-term forecast, fortunately, indicates that it’s a great time to be both a seller and buyer.
For sellers , available homes on the market remain scarce. A normal Puget Sound market has 3-4 months housing supply. Currently King County has 1.4 months, and Snohomish has 1.9! At September’s end, listings were down 23% from 2014. If you’re thinking of selling your home, this fall may be the best time in the foreseeable future simply because of supply and demand.
For buyers , 30-year fixed interest rates are hovering under 4%. For years, the Fed has discussed raising rates but has continually waited for market improvement. They can’t delay any longer and MUST raise soon. We suggest buying ASAP because over the next few years, current rates could increase up to 50%. In addition, the federal government recently introduced new mandatory closing disclosure requirements (TRID) that will delay all financed closings by at least 1-2 weeks. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana Since January 2013 (when our market began to recover), we’ve seen a consistent trend when the calendar turns over to the new year: prices increase steadily through spring, level off during summer, and fall as the holidays approach. 2016 will most likely be different. Why?
1) It’s an election year without an incumbent presidential candidate. In 2000 and 2008, housing markets decreased and/ or were flat. Unpredictability causes fear. 2) We are seeing a housing market similar to that of the 2006/07 election period that preceded the housing market crash in 2008. Developable land is scarce, builders and buyers are overpaying with multiple offers over asking price, and we are experiencing a large amount of new construction starts. 3) Economic advisors are warning us that current trends are not sustainable, and we must heed the advice. When interest rates go up, affordability goes down. Where does that leave home prices? In the short-term, demand from foreign investors paying cash may continue to push pricing up. Those who rely on buyer financing will either rent, or adjust their real estate goals and buy “less” home than planned. In summary, we are expecting a housing slowdown in 2016 and 2017. Contact your MSIR real estate professional to determine your optimal real estate goals and future, or for a customized, in-depth analysis on your area of interest. This is a call to action — the time to act is NOW!
[2]
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CONTENTS
THE MARKET TRENDS
Q3 2015 MARKET REPORT
AVERAGES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTES
4 Woodinville Report 5 Redmond Report 6 Sammamish Report 7 Bellevue Report
This report focuses on single family homes in the cities where we conduct most business. While we’re a global brokerage, we mainly work on the Eastside of the Puget Sound region, Olympia to Bellingham. Our numbers only reflect the averages of the communities featured in this report but the trends still accurately reflect county-wide trends.
8 Bothell Report TOTAL $ VOLUME AND # OF SALES
9 Kirkland Report 10 Duvall Report 11 Carnation Report 12 Snoqualmie Report 13 North Bend Report 14 Issaquah Report 15 Fall City Report 16 Kenmore Report 17 Lake Forest Park 18 Mercer Island Report 19 Seattle Report 20 Maple Valley Report
The Total Dollar Volume increased an average of 21% in the first three quarters of 2015 over the first three quarters of 2014, from $12.6 billion to $15.2 billion. The Number of Sales increased 12% , from 25,743 in 2014 to 28,933 in 2015. These are the metrics we use to analzye the longterm trends in each market segment because they best summarize the general market activity over long periods of time.
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
The Price Per Square Foot ($/SqFt) increased 8% from 2014 to 2015, from $221 to $238. This metric helps identify trends in market segments when large numbers of transactions are considered together over a period of time, and also is useful when comparing two properties on an apples-to-apples basis. In this case, it helps us understand that properties in this region are increasing in value on a square-foot-basis, rather than growing in size.
21 Kent Report AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
22 Renton Report 23 Snohomish Report
The Average Days on Market (DOM) decreased 13% from 2014 to 2015, from 46 to 40 days. DOM is a good measure of Liquidity in a real estate market. Liquidity determines how quickly an asset can be sold and usually increases in parallel with price transparency and fungible assets. In liquid markets, fewer days are needed to sell a property. In the Greater Seattle Region, homes are selling in the blink of an eye, making it a highly liquid market. Seattle boasts the second lowest DOM in the U.S.
CURRENT MONTHS OF INVENTORY With a surge of buyers and little increase in residential development, there is a shortage of inventory. The Months of Inventory of our market segments decreased 27% , from 2.2 to 1.6 months. With decreased inventory and increased demand, it doesn’t look like the scramble for homes will let up in the near future.
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[3]
*
WOODINVILLE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EQUESTRIAN ESTATE Just Listed for $1,825,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
380
451
19%
Total Dollar Volume
$230,717,000
$297,898,000
29%
Average Sale Price
$607,200
$660,500
9%
Average Days on Market
45
44
-2%
Sold / List Price %
99.1%
99.7%
0.6%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$222
$239
8%
Months of Inventory
2.2
1.6
-27%
Current Inventory in Units
141
90
-36%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF WOODINVILLE HOMES
CHART
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
WOODINVILLE
REDMOND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
ENGLISH HILL ESTATE Sold for $910,000
CHART
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF REDMOND HOMES
REDMOND
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
838
926
11%
Total Dollar Volume
$555,238
$640,695,000
15%
Average Sale Price
$662,600
$691,900
4%
Average Days on Market
42
34
-19%
Sold / List Price %
100%
100.6%
0.6%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$257
$271
5%
Months of Inventory
2.1
1.3
-38%
Current Inventory in Units
220
115
-48%
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[5]
SAMMAMISH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TIMELESS ELEGANCE ON 4 ACRES Sold for $1,385,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
762
795
4%
Total Dollar Volume
$577,205,000
$643,377,000
12%
Average Sale Price
$757,500
$809,300
7%
Average Days on Market
37
40
8%
Sold / List Price %
99.7%
99.9%
0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$253
$266
5%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.4
-22%
Current Inventory in Units
176
117
-34%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SAMMAMISH HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
SAMMAMISH
BELLEVUE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CUSTOM CONTEMPORARY Sold for $1,150,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BELLEVUE HOMES
BELLEVUE
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,040
1,136
9%
Total Dollar Volume
$920,579,000
$1,133,071,000 23%
Average Sale Price
$885,200
$997,400
13%
Average Days on Market
30
28
-7%
Sold / List Price %
100.2%
100.1%
-0.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$314
$357
14%
Months of Inventory
1.6
1.2
-25%
Current Inventory in Units
237
172
-27%
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[7]
BOTHELL REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE CUSTOM HOME Sold for $810,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,129
1,330
18%
Total Dollar Volume
$517,266,000
$641,651,000
24%
Average Sale Price
$458,200
$482,400
5%
Average Days on Market
38
47
24%
Sold / List Price %
100%
100.4%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$194
$207
6.7%
Months of Inventory
2.3
1.6
-30%
Current Inventory in Units
375
278
-26%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BOTHELL HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
BOTHELL
KIRKLAND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPECTACULAR WATERFRONT HOME Just listed for $3,800,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KIRKLAND HOMES
KIRKLAND
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
835
879
5%
Total Dollar Volume
$574,677,000
$661,420,000
15%
Average Sale Price
$688,200
$752,500
9%
Average Days on Market
41
31
-24%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
100.2%
1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$291
$318
9%
Months of Inventory
2.1
1.6
-24%
Current Inventory in Units
241
202
-16%
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[9]
DUVALL REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING COUNTRY ACREAGE Sold for $585,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
154
191
24%
Total Dollar Volume
$64,714,000
$89,673,000
39%
Average Sale Price
$420,200
$469,500
12%
Average Days on Market
40
41
3%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
99.5%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$189
$202
7%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.5
-17%
Current Inventory in Units
39
34
-13%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF DUVALL HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
DUVALL
CARNATION REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
RESERVE AT LAKE JOY ESTATE Sold for $799,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF CARNATION HOMES
CARNATION
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
95
86
-10%
Total Dollar Volume
$47,285,000
$44,899,000
-5%
Average Sale Price
$497,700
$522,100
5%
Average Days on Market
89
80
-10%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
98.4%
-0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$205
$213
4%
Months of Inventory
3.3
2.7
-18%
Current Inventory in Units
37
30
-19%
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[ 11 ]
SNOQUALMIE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE WOODED GETAWAY Sold for $579,500 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
321
354
10%
Total Dollar Volume
$171,955,000
$192,282,000
12%
Average Sale Price
$535,700
$543,200
1%
Average Days on Market
53
35
-34%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
100.6%
1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$202
$211
4%
Months of Inventory
1.9
0.7
-63%
Current Inventory in Units
77
26
-66%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOQUALMIE HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
SNOQUALMIE
NORTH BEND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
MOUNT SI VIEW HOME Sold for $584,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF NORTH BEND HOMES
NORTH BEND
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
226
217
-4%
Total Dollar Volume
$95,907,000
$99,761,000
4%
Average Sale Price
$424,400
$459,700
8%
Average Days on Market
59
57
-3%
Sold / List Price %
98.7%
99.9%
1.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$194
$211
9%
Months of Inventory
2.7
2.1
-22%
Current Inventory in Units
77
52
-33%
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ISSAQUAH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT VIEW HOME Sold for $450,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
629
612
-3%
Total Dollar Volume
$388,796,000
$405,864,000
4%
Average Sale Price
$618,100
$663,200
7%
Average Days on Market
30
33
10%
Sold / List Price %
100.2%
100.6%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$241
$268
11%
Months of Inventory
1.6
1.3
-19%
Current Inventory in Units
156
110
-30%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF ISSAQUAH HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
ISSAQUAH
FALL CITY REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRADITIONAL HOME ON ACREAGE Sold for $774,850
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF FALL CITY HOMES
FALL CITY
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
48
55
15%
Total Dollar Volume
$29,364,000
$35,900,000
22%
Average Sale Price
$611,800
$652,700
7%
Average Days on Market
113
74
-35%
Sold / List Price %
97.1%
95.7%
-1.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$219
$244
12%
Months of Inventory
4.4
3.2
-27%
Current Inventory in Units
30
19
-37%
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KENMORE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT HOME IN QUIET LOCATION Sold for $389,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
226
318
41%
Total Dollar Volume
$105,885,000
$172,503,000
63%
Average Sale Price
$468,500
$542,500
16%
Average Days on Market
38
36
-5%
Sold / List Price %
100.2%
99.9%
-0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$207
$225
9%
Months of Inventory
2.1
1.8
-14%
Current Inventory in Units
74
68
-8%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENMORE HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
KENMORE
LAKE FOREST PARK REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPACIOUS HOME ON LARGE LOT Listed for $1.3 million
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF LAKE FOREST PARK HOMES
LAKE FOREST PARK
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
141
155
10%
Total Dollar Volume
$76,756,000
$93,011,000
21%
Average Sale Price
$544,400
$600,100
10%
Average Days on Market
37
32
-14%
Sold / List Price %
99.8%
99%
-0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$221
$243
10%
Months of Inventory
2
1.3
-35%
Current Inventory in Units
46
30
-35%
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MERCER ISLAND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRANQUIL CONTEMPORARY HOME Sold for $459,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
276
266
-4%
Total Dollar Volume
$378,503,000
$403,263,000
7%
Average Sale Price
$1,371,400
$1,516,000
11%
Average Days on Market
67
47
-30%
Sold / List Price %
97.4%
97.9%
0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$408
$441
8%
Months of Inventory
2.7
1.8
-33%
Current Inventory in Units
77
53
-31%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MERCER ISLAND HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
MERCER ISLAND
SEATTLE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SEATTLE LUXURY PENTHOUSE Listed for $1,200,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SEATTLE HOMES
SEATTLE
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
5,909
6,243
6%
Total Dollar Volume
$3,312,687,000 $3,879,869,000 17%
Average Sale Price
$560,600
$612.500
11%
Average Days on Market
33
26
-21%
Sold / List Price %
100.9%
102.9%
2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$277
$309
12%
Months of Inventory
1.5
0.9
-40%
Current Inventory in Units
1,193
778
-35%
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MAPLE VALLEY REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EXTRAORDINARY HOME ON PRIVATE LOT Sold for $500,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
497
585
18%
Total Dollar Volume
$180,267,000
$226,222,000
26%
Average Sale Price
$362,700
$386,700
7%
Average Days on Market
37
34
-8%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
99.6%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$161
$175
9%
Months of Inventory
$2
1.2
-40%
Current Inventory in Units
140
86
-39%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MAPLE VALLEY HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
MAPLE VALLEY
KENT REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
UPDATED COUNTRY CLUB HOME Sold for $425,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENT HOMES
KENT
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
849
1,087
28%
Total Dollar Volume
$248,965,000
$357,192,000
44%
Average Sale Price
$293,200
$328,600
12%
Average Days on Market
55
49
-11%
Sold / List Price %
99.3%
100.1%
0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$143
$155
9%
Months of Inventory
2.7
1.7
-37%
Current Inventory in Units
306
205
-33%
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RENTON REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME ON ACREAGE Listed for $1,090,000 YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,222
1,480
21%
Total Dollar Volume
$479,188,000
$608,029,000
27%
Average Sale Price
$392,100
$410,800
5%
Average Days on Market
47
43
-9%
Sold / List Price %
99.7%
100%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$178
$188
5%
Months of Inventory
$2.3
1.5
-35%
Current Inventory in Units
384
246
-36%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF RENTON HOMES
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Number of Sales
YTD Q3 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
RENTON
SNOHOMISH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BEAUTIFUL TRADITIONAL HOME Sold for $910,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOHOMISH HOMES
SNOHOMISH
YTD Q3 2014
YTD Q3 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
671
796
19%
Total Dollar Volume
$273,300,000
$354,369,000
30%
Average Sale Price
$407,300
$445,200
9%
Average Days on Market
60
49
-18%
Sold / List Price %
99%
99.2%
0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$170
$183
8%
Months of Inventory
3
2.4
-20%
Current Inventory in Units
273
277
2%
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IMAGINE IT’S NOT LUXURY PRICES WE SERVE. IT’S LUXURY SERVICE CLIENTS EXPECT.
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