Cognitive biases: are we making fair and just choices?

: are we making fair and just choices

Introduction

Decision making is intuitive. Whether we know it or not, we are making decisions every day: some are trivial, some are life-changing, some are rational and some are just a little too personal to handle. For example, as you step out of your house in the morning, are you going to take the cheaper MTR or the more expensive but faster taxi? What subjects are you going to pursue for your GCSEs, A Levels and higher education? How much money are you going to invest in Tesla? In the 2024 UK and US elections, who are you going to support?

In most of these situations, in order to make fair and rational decisions, it makes sense to eliminate as many of our intrinsic faults in our rationale, cognitive biases, as possible.

Figure 2. Source: Encyclopædia Britannica, “Ptolemaic system”

Cognitive biases first came by as a quicker means of processing information, but over time they have proven to hinder our ability to make the best objective decisions. Our brains are astoundingly complex and, in turn, have lots of biases to help us process information. For instance, the below infographic shows all 188 currently known cognitive biases, more than realistically possible to cover in detail in this short essay.1 This article will cover 4 different cognitive biases and explain their implications on our daily lives in the hope of furthering our understanding of how our brain works and how we can best use it to our advantage.

Confirmation Bias

The confirmation bias is one of the most frequently employed cognitive biases.2 We tend to believe information that supports our pre-existing beliefs, and ignore those that do not. Sometimes, even when we are given neutral information, we interpret it in a way that favours what we already know. We store this information in our brains because it is easier to remember - an effect called “selective recall” .

Why do we have confirmation bias?

We like to make sense of the information we have - the quicker the better. In order to do this, our brains have learnt to interpret information by linking it to the knowledge that we already

Albeit seemingly counterproductive, this shortcut allowed our ancestors to make spontaneous decisions when faced with predators in a life-anddeath situation and carries on today as we continue to make quick modern-day decisions based on our age-old survival instincts.

Confirmation bias in real life

Confirmation bias seeps into many different corners of our lives, but it is especially significant in the scientific experimental research field as it is very easy to fall into the trap of interpreting data in a biased way to support pre-existing beliefs. If this happens, it becomes difficult for scientists to then come up with conclusions that best support the evidence collected because they are held back by the less accurate beliefs as a result of the confirmation bias.

One famous anecdote to illustrate this would be the discovery of heliocentrism. Since Ptolemy’s model of the universe from the 2nd century AD, a geocentric understanding of the universe has been left unchallenged for almost 2,000 years. It was not until 1543 that Copernicus published his heliocentric model of the universe in order to explain various astronomical observations that it was first debated.

However, long before Copernicus, back in 3rd century AD, Greek philosopher Aristarchus of Samos had already proposed the idea of heliocentrism. At the time, his ideas were not widely accepted because society was under the influence of the Aristotelian view on the universe. In this case, scientific progress was held back due to the reluctance to accept new ideas. In more psychological terms, scientists and the general public were constricted within their “confirmatory thought” (i.e. thoughts that only consider things from one perspective) and did not consider solving problems with “exploratory thought” (i.e. taking on multiple perspectives).

Therefore in today’s world, when conducting experimental research, it is essential for researchers to evaluate if the conclusions reached or the hypotheses tested are intrinsically biased, and most importantly, to remember that a fair investigation inquiry should never be taken for granted.

Another powerful consequence of confirmation bias is a phenomenon called “groupthink” , which is when a group of people come to make the same biased decision because they want to maintain the harmony of the group. As a way of seeking social validation, a member may conform to the belief held by the majority of their group even if there is an ideological conflict. As a result, people end up with quick but often mediocre solutions to problems, risking complacency and a lack of creativity and efficiency.

Groupthink tends to occur when group members’ backgrounds are very similar, or when a powerful or charismatic leader is in charge - or even when the group is under stress.3 If mindfully used, groupthink can be a psychological trick up your sleeve to speed up a long-winded meeting; but at the same time, it is important to keep in mind that this is also the same mechanism behind many social problems, such as peer pressuring and stereotyping.

Optimism Bias

As you are reading this now, what do you think are the chances of you getting a de-merit this school year?

We tend to overestimate the probabilities of positive events and underestimate the probabilities of negative events. This is defined as the optimism bias, also known as the “illusion of invulnerability” . We believe that we will perform better than the average, live longer than the average, and be richer than the average—all of which are impossible by definition. 80% of us have the optimism bias, and interestingly, we tend to be more optimistic about ourselves and people we are close to; in contrast, we are more pessimistic about things that are not personal and out of reach. This is known as private optimism.4

Why do we have optimism bias?

We like to feel that our decisions are always right, because this can lead to positive feelings like selfenhancement (feeling good about yourself), selfpresentation (making yourself seem respectable) and perceived control. As a result, we unconsciously convince ourselves that fate works towards our favour, leading to the tendency to expect events that are beneficial to us, even if it may be quite far from reality.

Optimism bias in real life

The optimism bias, as you might have already noticed, prevents us from perceiving reality objectively, which can lead to bad decisions. If you

are like me who had persistently overestimated my muscle endurance during PE lessons, you would know the pain of choosing to do 10 burpees every minute, on the minute. Another person influenced by this type of bias might think that they will never encounter a car accident and hence never wear seatbelts, when in fact, the statistics for car accidents in Hong Kong state that out of 900,000 cars, around 1,300 accidents happen per month, making it a 0.14% chance for your car to get into a road accident … each month.

If you’re lucky, you might just get by with a fine, but the optimism bias quite smoothly transitions into complacency or arrogance; it is potent enough to lead to devastating results. Taking another example, the fire protection architect for Notre-Dame “assumed” that the ancient oaks of the structure would burn slowly, giving ample time for rescue. “Oak that old can’t burn like a match. It’s absolutely incomprehensible, ” he said. The result? The spire and roof of the cathedral—a staple landmark of Paris - were burnt down and can no longer be

restored to its original form, not to mention that 1 billion euros were raised to rebuild the cathedral (notably, 80 million of which have been used for reparations so far).

However, this is not to say that the optimism bias does not bring us any benefits. Remember the saying “if you believe, good things will happen in life”? As generic or cheesy as this sounds, it can actually act as a self-fulfilling prophecy, or as Generation Z like to call it, the law of attraction. By believing good things will happen, they will become more likely. As a result of optimism bias, one may become more motivated in the goals they want to achieve and gain “better self esteem, lower stress levels and better overall well-being” .5 Notably, this positive manifestation is more prominent in health: people who are optimistic about their longevity tend to exercise more regularly, eat more mindfully and conduct healthier habits, thus maintaining better health.

Interestingly, although shared by most people, optimism does not spread uniformly amongst our

population. A comparative study carried out in 2003 found that “European Americans held an optimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative events, whereas Japanese held a pessimistic bias for negative events... due to the self-enhancement in Western individualism and self-criticism in Eastern collectivism that is prominent in the respective cultures” .6 Is there also a link between cultural upbringing and optimism bias? As we gain more understanding of our brain and its processes, perhaps we can find the answer one day.

Figure 3. Source: www.td.gov.hk/ “Trend of Monthly Total Road Traffic Accidents”

Figure 4. Source: NBC News. “Notre Dame Fire: What was damaged”

Pessimism Bias

The word “pessimism” came from the latin word pessimus, meaning “the worst” . In the psychological context, pessimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the probability of negative events and underestimate those of

positive events. Compared to its twin optimism bias, pessimism bias is more subtle, hence harder to define and research, because it ranges from just a “half glass empty” world-view to an unrealistically negative outlook towards the future—the latter of which is associated with heavy depression symptoms.

Why do we have pessimism bias?

The honest answer is, we simply do not know. Pessimism bias greatly varies from person to person, from culture to culture, from context to context. Neurology research suggests that the neural pathway responsible for pessimism is also used to mitigate optimism bias (optimism and pessimism bias coexist!), and that irregularities in this pathway are associated with depression: does it cause depression or vice versa? Not much is known about the specific mechanisms within our brain, which makes it all the more mysterious and fascinating.

Pessimism bias in real life

The pessimism bias can subconsciously make us perceive the future negatively. For example, if someone felt very anxious before a musical performance, they could feel varying levels of physical discomfort hours before going on stage: their hands and legs may start shaking as they try to navigate through notes of the piece (confirmed by my own experiences!). This is the “stage fright” that many performers experience at some point in their careers. On a bigger scale, widespread pessimism can change public opinions on subjects, ranging from housing prices to climate change to the next election of a government body. An interesting article from the Decision Lab illustrates how we display pessimism bias from the information overload from the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to desensitization and potential emotional fatigue.7

On the other hand, pessimism is also what keeps us grounded, giving us more realistic insights about the world. As humans, we all have some internalized optimism bias—we like to believe that the universe works in our favour. However, having some pessimism bias can help us rethink important decisions by asking “Can I really do this?” or “Should I first consider the risks of this decision?” . Sometimes, having some pessimism bias will help us tone down our overconfidence. The above example is a way of putting ‘positive pessimism’ into action—that is, channeling pessimism into actions that change for the better. By doing so, the degree to which someone experiences negative biases may be reduced, making them feel better.

Lastly, please also be aware that chronic and/or overwhelming pessimism could be associated with depression or other mental health issues. It is best, and perfectly normal, to seek professional help from psychiatrists, doctors, psychologists, counsellors and more. More links are available in the bibliography of this article.

Blind spot bias

Did you make it through this article thinking “none of this applies to me, I live my life completely rationally”? Well then, welcome to blind spot bias “the failure to recognise one’s own cognitive biases” .8 It’s almost like being able to distinguish the smell of your friend’s house, but never really knowing the smell of your own home. We often see the faults in other people but cannot recognise our own, this leads to smugness and arrogance when we believe that our opinions are superior to others’ .

Why do we have blind spot bias?

Although we tend to be capable of spotting other people’s downfalls in decision making, it is more difficult to recognise our own biases because we are so accustomed to our logical patterns: in other words, our mindset is that “everyone is more biased than me” . This is also why we tend to feel closer to people who display the same work patterns as us.

Blind spot bias in real life

The blind spot bias is one of the biggest culprits in the failure to realise our background and privileges because we don’t recognise the innate flaws that we possess. To demonstrate this, you, who are reading this as a student in Harrow, are exposed to young people with similar financial capabilities, friends who live in Hong Kong and speak English fluently. You are students who are receiving high levels of education and you are people who are loved by their peers, teachers and communities. There are so many things that we share in common that sometimes we forget that there are people outside of our social comfort zone, our bubble, who may think very differently from us. As a result, we are often oblivious to - or worse, dismissive - of their opinions, their stories and sufferings. So, to avoid becoming ignorant, pose questions like these to yourself:

“Have I considered this subject after putting myself in other people’s perspectives?”

“Are there any things in my daily life that I take for granted?”

“How would other people react to my decision?”

“Would anyone feel uncomfortable about anything I say/do?” Lastly and most importantly, remember that bias exists in all parts of our cognitive processes. It is important that we always keep an open mind and remember that other people’s opinions are just as important - not least because they are formed from cognitive processes just as complex as ours.

Conclusion

Decision making abilities are learnt and not innate. Although we still have a long way to go from being completely impartial, simply learning about our cognitive biases is already one of the most effective ways to eliminate them. These four cognitive biases should give you some insight into how our minds work, and given that there are 184 more, this is just the tip of the iceberg of our brain's wonderful complexities. After learning about these cognitive biases, we can become more aware of our shortcomings and gain a greater understanding of other people’s opinions which will ultimately help us to learn from each other. In today’s environment, a place where empathy and understanding have become scarce resources, I hope that we can start to make more informed, well-thought through and empathetic decisions moving forwards.