2024 Metro Atlanta Residential Real Estate Forecast

Metro Atlanta Residential

REAL ESTATE FORECAST 2024

Georgia is the #1 state to do business in for 10 consecutive years

By Area Development Magazine

U.S. SOCCER HEADQUARTERS MOVING TO METRO ATLANTA1 Fayette County named home of the U.S. Soccer National Training Center

# 5 TECH CITY IN THE U.S.6 In Atlanta, tech workers made up nearly 8% of the total number of employed residents

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE WORLD2

BIG COMPANIES ARE MOVING HERE7

Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport

18 Fortune® 500 companies and 32 Fortune®

is the world’s busiest global airport with more

1000 Headquarters have chosen to locate their

than 104.7 million passengers in 2023

POPULATION GROWTH3

worldwide headquarters in Georgia

Atlanta’s population is the 8th fastest among

#1 PLACE FOR YOUNG PROFESSIONALS TO START A CAREER8

large cities and expected to grow to be one of

76% of young professionals believe Atlanta

the largest in the nation by 2040

is the business hub of the South

CLEANTECH POWERHOUSE4

#2 MOST LIVABLE CITY IN THE U.S.9

Cleantech investments in Georgia in

Atlanta has been consistently listed as a

2023 surpassed $15 billion and created

top ten North American city in the index

over 16,000 new jobs

#5 MOST AFFORDABLE STATE IN THE U.S.5 Ranks fifth with significantly lower than average costs for housing, typical transportation, and utilities.

2 | HARRY NORMAN, REALTORS®

for more than a decade

#2 MOST EDUCATED CITY IN THE U.S.10 Atlanta has nearly 60% of its residents holding a bachelor’s degree and over 25% with a graduate degree

2023 RECAP There were substantial shifts in the 2023 market, underscored by the impact of higher interest rates and constrained inventory. These factors collectively contributed to a 17% decline in the number of home sales compared to 2022. The Average Days on Market (DOM) emerged as a telling metric, tracing the ebb and flow of buyer-seller interactions. Following 2022, which ended with six consecutive months of DOM growth, 2023 started slow for sellers with 44 DOM in February.

However, as the traditional summer market unfolded, the market warmed up considerably, illustrated by a notable reduction to 24 days in August. December closed the year out with a substantial 18.6% decrease from the outset of 2023.11

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET 2023

HOME INVENTORY OUTLOOK Despite a relative lack of home sales in 2023 compared to typical market conditions, there’s an optimistic outlook for increased activity in the coming year.12 The current housing market in Georgia is characterized by high demand and a shortage of available homes. The impact of higher interest rates is particularly notable, contributing to the housing shortage by dissuading potential sellers from listing their homes, thus reducing the overall housing supply.13 Interestingly, falling interest rates don’t necessarily translate to a surge in inventory, given that a significant portion of sellers transition to become buyers, and additionally, first-time homebuyers, who don’t contribute new inventory, tend to absorb whatever is available. To meet the sales projections of 2024 we would expect to see an increase of about 14-15% in listings in 2024.14 Even with this increase in listings coming to market, based on the level of demand, it is expected that homes will continue to sell fast and the amount of available inventory will remain tight for much of 2024.15

2024 METRO ATLANTA RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE FORECAST | 3

ONGOING HOME PRICE APPRECIATION Despite the challenges posed by the restricted supply, the housing market in Atlanta remains robust. The demand, fueled by both demographic factors and a growing population, has contributed to the ongoing appreciation of property values in 2023.

The market saw a notable annual increase in housing prices, with an average sold price growth rate of 3.2%16 across all combined counties in FMLS compared to 2022. This trend is a return to more normalized pre-pandemic appreciation levels, and a more sustainable rate than the double-digit appreciation of 2021 and 2022.

2024 NATIONAL HOME

The real estate landscape in 2024 is expected to continue along a positive

PRICING PREDICTIONS

trajectory, with the additional influence of mortgage rates showing signs

Corelogic

2.5%

Price appreciation at a national level is expected to be modest, and as the

Zelman & Associates

1.5%

variance in projections to the left demonstrate, challenging to predict.

Fannie Mae

2.4%

NAR

0.9%

Freddie Mac

2.8%

Realtor.com

-1.7%

of easing and a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve.17

In Greater Atlanta, due to pent up demand and market growth, price appreciation is expected to outpace national averages, in the range of 6-8% in 2024. This would deliver Atlanta 13 years of consecutive price appreciation.

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2023 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE ALL FMLS COUNTIES (in $,000’s)

The above information is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

NEW CONSTRUCTION

In the past 18 months, mortgage rates surged to historic

Economists anticipate 2024 to be a slightly better

highs due to the Federal Reserve’s robust interest rate

year for homebuilders than 2023, despite persistent

policies aimed at curbing inflation. However, a recent shift

challenges. Improved builder confidence is attributed

has seen rates steadily decline following pauses in the Fed’s

to strong demand and declining construction costs

rate hikes and subdued economic data. While refinance

nationwide, which, while not yet registering a year-over-

activity has been slow amid high rates, recent data from the

year drop, have substantially decreased from their peak

Mortgage Bankers Association indicates a revival. Experts

in November 2022.19 With the scarcity of existing homes

anticipate a further surge in refinance volume in 2024 if

for sale, buyers with the means are increasingly turning

the Fed decides to cut rates, providing an opportunity for

to new construction.

borrowers with high mortgage rates to reduce their monthly expenses. The Federal Reserve has signaled the intention to implement three rate reductions in 2024.18

The homebuilding industry, comprising around 30% of new-home sales as a share of the entire housing market, is likely near its peak level, but the trend is expected to

Source

2023

2024

Fannie Mae

6.3

5.6

Freddie Mac

6.4

N/A

1.04 million single-family and 440,000 multifamily

Mortgage Bankers Assocation

5.2

4.4

units.20 Home sellers are expected to face heightened

continue. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts 1.48 million housing starts in 2024, encompassing

competition from builders in 2024, as builders adapt to market conditions, focusing on lower-priced homes and making necessary price adjustments.

NATIONAL VS LOCAL ECONOMY In 2023, the GDP has returned to its pre-pandemic level, signaling economic recovery. Core inflation has decelerated, yet it falls short of the desired target. Demand contributions persist above pre-pandemic levels, indicating some overheating.

The normalization of supply chain disruptions is mitigating their impact on inflation.

The outlook for 2024 anticipates increased economic momentum and a decrease in inflation. This trend aligns with a broader pattern, as most of the industrialized world contends with a slowdown in growth. The housing recession is believed to be over, but affordability challenges will likely constrain the recovery.

Fortunately, Georgia is well-equipped to endure an economic downturn, potentially even a mild recession. Georgia’s GDP, adjusted for inflation, has completely bounced back from the effects of the pandemic-induced recession. There has been growth in total employment, and significant economic development initiatives are in progress. It is anticipated that Georgia’s economic performance will surpass that of the broader U.S. economy.21

2024 METRO ATLANTA RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE FORECAST | 5

PEOPLE ARE FLOCKING SOUTH Georgia is on the cusp of significant and sustained long-term growth, with projections indicating a remarkable increase of over 2 million people, taking it from just over 11 million currently to over 13 million by the year 2040.22 This growth trajectory positions the state to become the fifth largest in terms of population size. The city of Atlanta, a key player in this growth, added 14,300 residents in the past year, aligning with broader regional trends.23 The southern markets, including Georgia, are anticipated to outperform other regions, driven by faster job increases. Noteworthy is the influx of residents from California, constituting the largest group of 12.5% relocating to Georgia. The allure lies in the state’s reasonable tax rates and the availability of expansive living options.

Georgia as a state is poised for sustained growth and increased prominence on the national stage.24

DEMOGRAPHICS

THE LUXURY MARKET

In 2023, first-time homebuyers constituted 32% of the

In retrospect of 2023 and the outlook for 2024, the luxury

national market, witnessing an increase from the previous

real estate market in Greater Atlanta exhibited nuanced

year’s 26%, although still below the historical average of

shifts and emerging trends. Despite a slight decrease

38%. The typical age of first-time buyers slightly declined

in total sales to 3,034 units priced over $1M, indicating a

to 35, while repeat buyers’ median age also saw a small

discerning market, there was remarkable price resilience

decrease to 58. Notably, 14% of homebuyers opted for

with a 3.3% increase in the average sale price to $2,642,637.

multigenerational homes, motivated by caregiving, cost

This resilience was particularly pronounced in the higher

savings, and the return of adult children or relatives. The

price brackets, underscoring a sustained confidence in the

median distance between the purchased and previous

luxury segment’s inherent value.26

homes decreased to 20 miles, indicating a shift from the previous year’s 50 miles and aligning with the historical norm of 15 miles.

Luxury homebuyer trends revealed a diverse profile, with younger buyers entering the market and a surge in female homeownership. The demand for eco-luxury properties

For buyers, neighborhood quality was the most crucial

aligned with global sustainability trends, and technological

factor at 60%, followed by convenience to friends and

integration was evident across all market segments.

family (45%) and overall home affordability (39%). The typical home search lasted 10 weeks, with buyers visiting an average of seven homes, with four viewed exclusively online, mirroring patterns observed in 2022. In 2023, 80% of buyers secured financing, a slight increase from the previous year, but still below the 2021 figure. The typical down payment for first-time buyers reached 8%, the highest since 1997, while repeat buyers had a median down payment of 19%, the highest since 2005.25

6 | HARRY NORMAN, REALTORS®

Key takeaways for 2024 include expectations of balanced growth across different price segments, a solidification of eco-luxury in the market, a diversifying buyer base, and sustained emphasis on sustainability and technology.

Mortgage rates and economic outlook will continue to influence the market, and investment opportunities may arise, particularly in properties meeting evolving demands for eco-consciousness and modern luxury.27

TRENDS IN THE WORLD OF INTERIOR DESIGN 2024 The expansive topic of trends often unfolds with many subtopics. Regardless of prevailing trends, their application must invariably take on a personalized, customized form that seamlessly aligns with the distinct individual preferences and requirements.

Customizing trends post-sale, contributing to a residence’s unique character, Guest Contributor Valerie Garrett

while witnessing clients derive joy from tailored living experience within their new home is a gratifying testament to the meaningful impact of design.

Principal & Lead Designer of Valerie Garrett Interiors

Color Trends

Wallcoverings

Designers are embracing warm and earthy

Wallpaper remains popular with a

tones as well as dark and moody colors

variety of trendy options

Wellness

Bringing the Outdoors In

There continues to be a strong focus on wellness features becoming the norm

From larger windows to living plants there

rather than the exception

is a high focus on embracing biophilia

Sustainability There is a growing emphasis on using

For a more in-depth look at these

environmentally friendly materials and practices

and other trends, read our blog.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The National Association of REALTORS®

In Greater Atlanta, due to pent up

The Federal Reserve has signaled the

(NAR) predicts a significant increase

demand and market growth, price

intention to implement three rate

in existing-home sales, reaching

appreciation is expected in the range

reductions in 2024

4.71 million, a 13.5% rise from the

of 6-8% in 2024

anticipated 4.1 million in 2023

2024 METRO ATLANTA RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE FORECAST | 7

WHY CHOOSE HARRY NORMAN, REALTORS® As home to the very best real estate sales associates, our dedication to providing exceptional client service through the home buying and selling process is unmatched, as shown in 2023.

$2.95B

4,924

$621,000*

in Sales Volume

in Closed Units

Average Sold Price

How can we help you in 2024? *Average sold price for list side transactions. Based on data supplied by the FMLS and GAMLS.

This forecast provides macro trends and an outlook for the national and Atlanta market. Each submarket and home type has nuanced differences.

To understand the value of your home or your neighborhood, reach out today for a customized market update.

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ATLANTA NORTH 770-622-3081 ATLANTA PERIMETER 770-394-2131 BIG CANOE® 770-893-2400 BLAIRSVILLE 706-745-3000 BLUE RIDGE 706-913-8300 BUCKHEAD 404-233-4142 EAST COBB 770-977-9500 THE COLLECTION AT FORSYTH 770-497-2000 HISTORIC MARIETTA 770-422-6005 INTOWN 404-897-5558 LUXURY LAKE & MOUNTAIN 706-212-0228 NORTH FULTON 678-461-8700 PEACHTREE CITY 770-632-8526 SAVANNAH 912-233-6609 WOODSTOCK 404-495-8331 LONDON +44 20 7467 5330

ATLANTA’S FIRST IN LUXURY Source: 1) FOX5Atlanta.com 2) AJC.com 3) RoughDraftAtlanta.com 4) Metro Atlanta Chamber FY23-Impact-Report-Final 5) Forbes.com 6) SeattleTimes.com 7) Georgia.org 8) Metro Atlanta Chamber FY23-Impact-Report-Final 9) Metro Atlanta Chamber FY23-Impact-Report-Final 10) Forbes 11) Trendgraphix 12) KeepingCurrentMatters.com 13) Bankrate.com 14) Realtor.com 15) NAR 16) Trendgraphix 17) CNBC.com 18) Forbes.com 19) RealEstate.USnews.com 20) NAR 21) Selig Center for Economic Growth: The 2024 Georgia Economic Outlook 22) MoveBuddha. com 23) AtlantaRegional.org 24) MoveBuddha.com 25) NAR 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 26) Trendgraphix 27) Luxury Portfolio International - Demands of a New Affluent Generation. The information within is believed to be accurate by is not warranted.