OPINION

into us to try to reduce intermediaries and increase value back to the producers.”

“My goal is to keep knocking on enough doors so that the international community will start taking another look and see it’s really wrong to spend billions of dollars only on health. It should be allowed to be used on anything that can improve health outcomes.”

I shift back to Ukraine and the immense unity in both the Ukrainian morale in their existential fight, as well as that of the international community. This unity was hugely underestimated by observers, how come?

“What’s interesting to see is the more the Russians attack, the stronger the response by the Ukrainians is in terms of digging in their heels and not being willing to surrender. That has to do with a couple of things. Firstly, they believe their military is ultimately going carry the day. They’re throwing everything they have at it - they’re fighting to protect and save their home country.. Secondly, they have seen some progress on the battlefield that gives them a lot of extra hope, allowing them to come together as a community. That was amazing to me, just to see how everybody’s suffering, often worse than you could imagine, brought people together in the shelters, sharing what they had, openly supporting each other. Their social conscience understands resilience.”

So, what is Corus doing in the short and medium term to help? “We are focusing on the immediate needs in shelter, food and health, as well as trying to work with the ministries, ensuring that there’s good co-ordination across all the international actors. And here is the secret: trying to work within local structures and build capacity in the local systems. We’ve partnered with the Federal Trade Union, which touches the entire country and has enormous influence with different actors at the local, regional and national level. We’re using their infrastructure as a place for people to go for shelter as opposed to gymnasiums or school cafeterias. People have a little more space and dignity if they move there. Second, we’re focusing on the food, so making sure you get everybody at least one meal a day and then health, because many people have serious chronic sickness, as well as psychological trauma.”

I’m interested to understand how Speckhard’s time as a former ambassador and working in NATO has influenced the way he thinks. “The part that I worry about as a former diplomat, is the externalisation of this war. I was on an interview the other day with a member of Russia’s parliament who kept saying that this is essentially the US fighting a war against Russia. That language is really dangerous, because if Russia wanted to see a war between the United States and Russia, it would look a lot different. And nobody should want that, least of all Russia. So, we need to avoid this kind of externalisation. Clearly the US and European nations are providing military support, but it’s not US soldiers or European soldiers on these front lines.”

How does he see the war progressing? “What you see happening, is Russia looking to Iran and North Korea for more weapons. This is what to watch for in the coming months - how does Ukraine, and their supporters, try to build more symmetry into what’s happening. It can’t last forever that you can just lob rockets from a safe zone at no cost to Russia.We tried economic sanctions, but that’s not enough. My expectation is that people are going to be working very hard in Kyiv to ensure that there has to be a cost to Russia.”

In terms of how strong and sustained the West’s support has been, Speckhard is clear. “The reality is less about what the West does and more about what Russia does. Its brutal behaviour is what re- ally keeps that solidarity. If Russia were at all pursuing a different kind of approach, like trying to propose truces and ceasefires, and maybe even having some unilateral ones for a day or two, they might change some of the perceptions of the allies that are supporting Ukraine. They have shown no desire or willingness to do that.”

So, what kind of future can we expect for Ukraine? “I think the country will stay fractured in terms of politics. I don’t think you’re going to see a pro-Russian government in Kyiv anytime in the rest of my lifetime..”

I ask briefly how Belarus’ role might play out given Speckhard’s former role as the US Ambassador to the country. “Lukashenko is walking a tightrope,” he starts. “He needs to be able to show Moscow that he is a complete ally of Russia, because otherwise he risks a similar fate as Ukraine. At the same time the Belarusian people have no interest in getting involved in this war. Belarusians have always hated war. It’s a country across which armies have marched through for the last few centuries. They have a saying there that says, ‘At least we have bread and salt.’ As long as you have bread and salt, you know you’re doing all right. So, they keep their heads down. I think Lukashenko knows that this would be a losing proposition for him with the Belarusian people. I think the Russians hopefully know as well that opening up a front along that 1,100 kilometre border is a bad idea.”

Before our hour’s call is up, and having covered so much ground, I finally ask Speckhard what he thinks Central Asia, and other former Soviet Union countries, make of the current situation and how they balance the geopolitical scales. Speckhard is hesitant at first but provides a few pearls of wisdom. “I think everybody has had their eyes opened as to the weakness of Russian conventional forces, however they have seen that there’s no weakness in terms of ability to punish civilian populations.

So, these countries will be watching that side and know the brutality in terms of how Russia is willing to use artillery rockets, and other means, to destroy civilian centres and infrastructure. What I would expect them to do is be very respectful, but at the same time be working overtime to build new relationships. I would expect that wouldn’t include the United States. That’s too provocative, but certainly with Turkey, China, Middle East and Saudi Arabia.”

Nick Rowan Editor-in-Chief at Open Central Asia Magazine