Hhh final demographic report by ads 8 1 13b

Half Hollow Hills Central School District DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2012/2013 School Year Final Report August 1, 2013

Prepared by:

applied data services 268 Route 206, Suite 406 ● Flanders, NJ 07836 ● 973-584-5578 ● fax 973-584-0726

TABLE OF CONTENTS I.

SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 1 Table 1a Projected Enrollment by School by Year .................................................. 2 Table 1b Projected Enrollment by Grade by Year ................................................... 2

II.

INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 3 Table 2 School Building Characteristics ................................................................. 4 Figure 1 Enrollment Projection Comparison 3 & 5 year Survival Ratios ................. 6

III. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROCESS ........................................................................... 7 IV. ENROLLMENT DATA & STUDY CONSIDERATIONS ................................................ 9 1. Comments on 2012/13 Historic Enrollments ........................................................... 9 Table 3a Historic Enrollments By School By Year .................................................. 9 Table 3b Historic Enrollments By Grade By Year ................................................... 9 Figure 2 Distictwide Enrollments – Historic By Grade By Year ............................. 10 2. Comments on Projected Enrollments .................................................................... 11 Table 4a Projected Enrollment by Grade by Year ................................................. 12 Table 4b Projected Enrollment by School by Year ................................................ 12 Figure 3 Districtwide Enrollments – Projected By Grade By Year ........................ 13 3. Survival Ratios ...................................................................................................... 14 4. Assigning Projected Kindergarten Students to Their Elementary Schools ........... 14 5. Special Education ................................................................................................. 14 Table 5a Special Education Actual Enrollments ................................................... 15 Table 5b Special Education Projected Enrollments .............................................. 15 6. New Construction .................................................................................................. 16 7. Births ..................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 5 Birth History by Year ............................................................................... 17 V. HISTORIC/PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY BUILDING, YEAR AND GRADE ..... 18

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Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

I.

SUMMARY

Applied Data Services (ADS) calculated enrollment projections based on both a 5-year enrollment history and a 3-year enrollment history. A comparison of the resulting K-12 projections, through 2017/18, for each of the two sets shows a minimal difference of 41 students in 2017/18. Applied Data Services is recommending the use of the last five years of enrollment history to best predict enrollments for the next five years.

The historical enrollment for grades K-12 decreases 7% while enrollment for grades 6-8 remains constant from 2007/08 through 2012/13. The grade 9-12 enrollments increase 8%, 256 students, over the past five years. The K-5 enrollments decreased each year, from 4,614 in 2007/08 to 3,638 in 2012/13, a decline of 21%. All of the elementary schools have declined over the past five years.

The projected enrollment for grades K-12 decreases from 9,437 students in 2012/13 to 7,647 students in 2017/18, resulting in a loss of 1,790 students over 5 years. This decrease represents a 19% enrollment decline over the next five years. The decrease in projected enrollments through 2017/18 is based on the large number of students leaving the school system that represented the last of the ‘enrollment explosion’ which peaked in 2006/07. These outgoing students are being replaced at the elementary level by fewer kindergarten students resulting from declining births.

As shown on Table 1a, the projected enrollments of all of the seven elementary schools decline from 2012/13 through 2017/18 Candlewood Middle School loses 248 students from 2012/13 to 2017/18, a decline of 29% while West Hollow Middle School decreases approximately 21% over the same period.

The projected enrollments at Half Hollow Hills HS East and West, decrease 7% and 14%, respectively, over the next five years.

The survival ratios for the K-12 grade pairs (except grade pair 8,9) exceed 100%, indicating growth and can probably be attributed to a resale of homes from empty nesters to families of childbearing age, and/or a withdrawal of private and parochial students from all grades with entry into the public schools as a result of the cost of tuition and the current economic climate.

The birth to kindergarten ratio of 1.239 indicates 24% more children enroll in kindergarten than are born in the district (5 years earlier).

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Half Hollow Hills Central School District

Table 1a Projected Enrollment by School by Year School

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

480 504 528 589 559 528 450 1,036 1,417 1,856 1,490 9,437

454 478 495 559 564 519 406 973 1,324 1,878 1,465 9,115

432 439 443 502 541 487 355 923 1,232 1,933 1,473 8,760

407 411 426 439 529 461 329 879 1,251 1,877 1,370 8,379

394 396 407 399 508 465 282 829 1,221 1,784 1,323 8,008

379 374 390 363 517 477 275 738 1,124 1,733 1,277 7,647

Chestnut Hill Elementary Forest Park Elementary Otsego Elementary Paumanok Elementary Signal Hill Elementary Sunquam Elementary Vanderbilt Elementary Candlewood Middle West Hollow Middle Half Hollow Hills HS East Half Hollow Hills HS West Total

Table 1b Projected Enrollment by Grade by Year Grade

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth SubTotal K-5

490 515 572 660 726 675 3,638

466 496 527 579 672 733 3,473

418 474 505 533 589 679 3,198

446 425 483 511 541 596 3,002

408 452 434 489 520 548 2,851

435 414 461 440 497 527 2,774

Sixth Seventh Eighth SubTotal 6-8

714 887 852 2,453

682 719 896 2,297

740 689 726 2,155

687 747 696 2,130

603 693 754 2,050

555 607 700 1,862

Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth SubTotal 9-12

808 865 818 855 3,346

819 818 874 832 3,343

862 829 826 889 3,406

698 872 837 840 3,247

668 707 881 851 3,107

725 675 714 896 3,010

Total

9,437

9,113

8,759

8,379

8,008

7,647

Notes: Projections are based on a survival ratio using 5 years of enrollment history.

Self-contained Special Education students are included in enrollments.

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II.

INTRODUCTION

A demographic/redistricting study was awarded to and prepared by Applied Data Services (ADS) for the Half Hollow Hills Central School District to provide enrollment projections in order to plan for the efficient use of facilities for the next five years. Applied Data Services would like to acknowledge the offices that provided pertinent data for this report, in particular State of New York Health Department, the Transportation Supervisor, and the Suffolk County Planning Board, as well as the district’s Administration for their assistance and timely provision of the data necessary to conduct this study.

Background Half Hollow Hills Central School District is located in western Suffolk County, Long Island New York. The district is part of both the Huntington and Babylon Townships. The school district contains eleven schools (seven elementary schools, two middle schools, and two high schools). The school district serves approximately 9,500 students and a staff of approximately 850, including 750 teachers.

Half Hollow Hills Central SD is committed to providing optimal learning conditions that: set the highest expectations for all students, teachers, and the community; are motivating, fully engaging, orderly and safe; engage all students, teachers, and community members in an active committed effort to help each student, teacher, and community member to use his or her intellectual, social, and physical capacities to achieve personal goals in ways that foster the success of the society.

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Table 2 School Building Characteristics

School Chestnut Hill Elementary Forest Park Elementary Otsego Elementary Paumanok Elementary Signal Hill Elementary Sunquam Elementary Vanderbilt Elementary Candlewood Middle School West Hollow Middle School Half Hollow Hills HS East Half Hollow Hills HS West

Grade Range K–5 K–5 K–5 K–5 K–5 K–5 K–5 6–8 6–8 9 – 12 9 – 12

Feeds West Hollow Middle School Candlewood Middle School Candlewood Middle School West Hollow Middle School West Hollow Middle School West Hollow Middle School Candlewood Middle School Half Hollow Hills HS West Half Hollow Hills HS East

Percen t 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Report Contents The current school year 2012/13 is the base year for the projected enrollments. The current enrollments by school, by grade (on or about October 1, 2012) were provided by Central Administration. These statistics are included herein, as the last set of reports entitled “Historic / Projected Enrollments by Building by Year by Grade.” There are eleven schools included in this report with a grade range from Kindergarten through grade 12.

Data Collection The enrollment data for each of the past five years was provided by Central Administration and reported by school by grade – identifying both regular and special education enrollments (on or about October 1), as well as the Student Enrollment Summary Report identifying all students (including self-contained special education) by school, by grade, by ethnicity. For the purposes of enrollment projection the regular and special education historical enrollments were combined for each grade. Both the historical and projected enrollments in this report include the special education students.

For this study two sets of projections were performed. The survival ratios were calculated using a 5-year enrollment history and a 3-year enrollment history. A comparison of the resulting K-12 projections through 2017/18, for each of the two sets, is presented in Figure 1.

Selecting a 5-year enrollment history is an expectation that the enrollments will grow or decline on the same average basis as the last five years. Based on the economic climate and slight growth, Applied Data Services is recommending the use of the last five years of enrollment history to best predict the next five years.

The history of births, necessary for projecting the Kindergarten enrollment through 2017/18, was obtained from the New York State Department of Health. These were reported by school district area i.e. specifically Half Hollow Hills.

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The following reports are included herein: Enrollment History by district, by grade from 2007/08 through 2012/13.

Enrollment Projections by district, by grade, and year beginning in 2012/13 through 2017/18.

Enrollment Projections for each building for each year through 2017/18.

Survival ratios for each grade pair including the birth to kindergarten progression.

Enrollment projections and histories for each building, by grade from 2007/08 through 2017/18.

A description of the projection process follows in Section III; with an analysis and a description of the data elements included in Sections IV and V. Finally, the enrollment histories and projections for each building by grade are presented in Section VI.

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Survival Ratio

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

5-year SR

9,437

9,115

8,760

8,379

8,008

7,647

3-year SR

9,437

9,117

8,759

8,373

7,992

7,606

Notes: This chart illustrates the projected enrollments using a 3-year and 5-year history to calculate survival ratios (SR).

Special Education enrollments are included.

Figure 1 Enrollment Projection Comparison 3 & 5 year Survival Ratios

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III.

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROCESS

Introduction Effective planning requires schools to forecast long-term enrollment projections on a district and school basis. While short-term (one year) projections are accomplished with a high degree of confidence, five year projections can be more uncertain. It is generally recognized by demographers that component and cohort survival methods are most adequate in reducing the relative error in projections.

Projections based upon children already in the district (the current K-8 population only) will be the most reliable. The second level of reliability will be for those children already born into the community but not yet old enough to be in school (live births). The least reliable category is the group for which an estimate must be made to predict the number of births, thereby adding an additional variable of uncertainty. This occurs when 10 year enrollment projections are performed.

Other factors contributing to this uncertainty include: A parochial school closed or other students returned from non-public schools.

A charter school opened.

The kindergarten program changed entrance age or to an extended/full-day program.

The high school toughened its course credit/graduation requirements.

The district set new attendance boundaries for elementary schools.

Annual updates to the projections allow for early identification of recent changes in historical trends. When the actual enrollment in a grade is significantly different (high or low) from the projected number, it is important to determine whether this is a one-year aberration or whether a new trend may be starting. It is thereby recommended that all school districts have updated enrollment forecasts performed at least every other year.

Description of Projection Techniques The ADS proprietary Enrollment Projection System (EPS) uses the five (or three) year component cohort survival method (which is used by most local, state and federal agencies) for making five year projections of district and school enrollments.

This method calculates an average survival ratio (persistence factor) from one grade to the next. The survival ratio expresses a quantitative relationship between the numerical size of a group (grade) in a given year in comparison to the size of the same group in the previous year.

The number of students in a group in the present year is divided by the number in the group the previous year. If the quotient is greater than 1.0, the size of the group has increased; conversely, if the quotient is less than 1.0, the size of the group has decreased. If a survival ratio is l.000, there has been no change in the class size as the students move from one grade to the next. For example, if a school district had 1000 sixth graders last year and 789 seventh graders this year, the district sixth-seventh grade survival ratio is .789 i.e. only 79% of the students survived from grade six to seven.

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In part, the survival ratio is also important as an index of the degree of "holding power" of a district. In most suburban school districts, its magnitude is influenced by factors, such as sizable amounts of affordable housing, large birth rates, turnover in the so-called "second generation" housing resale market, available rentals, and an increasing number of adults in the childbearing age category. Under some circumstances, survival ratios may be partly affected also by prevailing perceptions held by residents of a community concerning the "quality" of a given school district, or of a particular school within a district. Nevertheless, whatever the source of variation in these ratios from year to year, the average ratios reflect, numerically, the net result of all influences (available housing, births, economy, etc.) on the in- or outmovements of students, by grade, over a five-year period.

The enrollment projections performed by ADS, are based primarily on the use of a five-year average for computing survival ratio (SR) for each grade pair. The SR for each grade was multiplied by the enrollment of the previous grade in the previous school year, to obtain the future enrollment for each grade.

EPS also provides the capability to evaluate enrollments versus building capacities, assess the effect of grade reorganization or other redistricting needs, evaluate enrollment distributions as a result of school closings, assess the impact of changes in school feeder patterns and evaluate the effects of modifying school attendance boundaries.

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IV. 1.

ENROLLMENT DATA & STUDY CONSIDERATIONS

Comments on 2012/13 Historic Enrollments

The historical enrollment for grades K-12 decreases 7% while enrollment for grades 6-8 remains constant from 2007/08 through 2012/13. The grade 9-12 enrollments increased over the past five years, by 8% or 256 students. The K-5 enrollments decreased each year, from 4,614 in 2007/08 to 3,638 in 2012/13, a decline of 21%. All of the elementary schools declined each year over the past five years.

Table 3a Historic Enrollments By School By Year School Chestnut Hill Elementary Forest Park Elementary Otsego Elementary Paumanok Elementary Signal Hill Elementary Sunquam Elementary Vanderbilt Elementary Candlewood Middle West Hollow Middle Half Hollow Hills HS East Half Hollow Hills HS West Total

2007/08 644 621 660 733 658 645 653 1,048 1,402 1,705 1,385 10,154

2008/09 634 596 664 706 643 631 607 1,098 1,445 1,677 1,371 10,072

2009/10 599 565 626 697 623 642 585 1,070 1,455 1,733 1,433 10,028

2010/11 570 513 594 684 603 608 562 1,080 1,470 1,774 1,422 9,880

2011/12 502 498 577 635 561 539 497 1,074 1,497 1,809 1,480 9,669

2012/13 480 504 528 589 559 528 450 1,036 1,417 1,856 1,490 9,437

Table 3b Historic Enrollments By Grade By Year Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth SubTotal K-5 Sixth Seventh Eighth SubTotal 6-8 Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth SubTotal 9-12 Total

Note:

2007/08 632 684 841 788 816 853 4,614 818 854 778 2,450 768 784 739 799 3,090 10,154

2008/09 692 633 689 841 804 822 4,481 858 824 861 2,543 761 773 782 732 3,048 10,072

2009/10 616 696 656 697 858 814 4,337 830 866 829 2,525 811 774 783 798 3,166 10,028

2010/11 554 632 702 666 706 874 4,134 836 843 871 2,550 793 827 785 791 3,196 9,880

2011/12 512 560 652 706 670 709 3,809 886 835 850 2,571 855 798 826 810 3,289 9,669

2012/13 490 515 572 660 726 675 3,638 714 887 852 2,453 808 865 818 855 3,346 9,437

Self-contained special education students are included in the enrollments.

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Grades

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

K-5 6-8 9-12

4,614 2,450 3,090

4,481 2,543 3,048

4,337 2,525 3,166

4,134 2,550 3,196

3,809 2,571 3,289

3,638 2,453 3,346

Notes:

Self-contained special education students are included in the enrollments.

Figure 2 Distictwide Enrollments – Historic By Grade By Year

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2.

Comments on Projected Enrollments

The projected enrollment for grades K-12 decreases from 9,437 students in 2012/13 to 7,647 students in 2017/18, resulting in a loss of 1,790 students over 5 years. This decrease represents a 19% enrollment decline over the next five years. The decrease in projected enrollments through 2017/18 is based on the large number of students leaving the school system that represented the last of the ‘enrollment explosion’ which peaked in 2006/07. These outgoing students are being replaced at the elementary level by fewer kindergarten students resulting from declining births.

As shown on Table 4b, the projected enrollments of all of the seven elementary schools decline from 2012/13 through 2017/18.

Candlewood Middle School loses 248 students from 2012/13 to 2017/18, a decline of 29% while West Hollow Middle School decreases approximately 21% over the same period.

The projected enrollments at Half Hollow Hills HS East and West, decrease 7% and 14%, respectively, over the next five years.

Effect of the Academically High Achievement Program (AHAP) The Academically High Achievement Program, or AHAP, currently offered by the Half Hollow Hills CSD does not affect the projected enrollment in any of the schools.

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HALF HOLLOW HILLS CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT

Table 4a Projected Enrollment by Grade by Year Grade

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth SubTotal K-5

490 515 572 660 726 675 3,638

466 496 527 579 672 733 3,473

418 474 505 533 589 679 3,198

446 425 483 511 541 596 3,002

408 452 434 489 520 548 2,851

435 414 461 440 497 527 2,774

Sixth Seventh Eighth SubTotal 6-8

714 887 852 2,453

682 719 896 2,297

740 689 726 2,155

687 747 696 2,130

603 693 754 2,050

555 607 700 1,862

Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth SubTotal 9-12

808 865 818 855 3,346

819 818 874 832 3,343

862 829 826 889 3,406

698 872 837 840 3,247

668 707 881 851 3,107

725 675 714 896 3,010

Total

9,437

9,113

8,759

8,379

8,008

7,647

Table 4b Projected Enrollment by School by Year School Chestnut Hill Elementary Forest Park Elementary Otsego Elementary Paumanok Elementary Signal Hill Elementary Sunquam Elementary Vanderbilt Elementary Candlewood Middle West Hollow Middle Half Hollow Hills HS East Half Hollow Hills HS West Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

480 504 528 589 559 528 450 1,036 1,417 1,856 1,490 9,437

454 478 495 559 564 519 406 973 1,324 1,878 1,465 9,115

432 439 443 502 541 487 355 923 1,232 1,933 1,473 8,760

407 411 426 439 529 461 329 879 1,251 1,877 1,370 8,379

394 396 407 399 508 465 282 829 1,221 1,784 1,323 8,008

379 374 390 363 517 477 275 738 1,124 1,733 1,277 7,647

Notes: Projections are based on a survival ratio using 5 years of enrollment history.

Self-contained Special Education students are included in enrollments.

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Grades

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

K-5 6-8 9-12

3,638 2,453 3,346

3,473 2,297 3,343

3,198 2,155 3,406

3,002 2,130 3,247

2,851 2,050 3,107

2,774 1,862 3,010

Note: Self-contained special education students are included in the above K-12 enrollments.

Projections are based on a survival ratio using 5 years of enrollment history.

Figure 3 Districtwide Enrollments – Projected By Grade By Year

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3.

Survival Ratios

The survival ratios were computed based on a five-year history for each grade. The survival ratios for each grade pair were then applied to each grade in each of the schools to calculate the projected enrollments. The projected enrollments by grade, by year are obtained by adding each of the grades for the schools. The survival ratios are presented below for each grade pair through years 2012/13 and 2017/18.

SURVIVAL RATIOS FOR PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2017/18 B

K 1.239

1 1.01

2 1.021

3 1.009

4 1.018

5 1.01

6 1.013

7 1.006

9

8 1.01

.962

10 1.012

11 1.01

12 1.018

Analysis of Enrollment Trends The survival ratios for the K-12 grade pairs (except grade pair 8,9) exceed 100%, indicate growth and can probably be attributed to a resale of homes from empty nesters to families of childbearing age, and/or a withdrawal of private and parochial students from all grades with entry into the public schools as a result of the cost of tuition and the current economic climate.

The birth to kindergarten ratio of 1.239 indicates 24% more children enroll in kindergarten than are born in the district (5 years earlier). This also supports the turnover of homes over the past five years to families with children of elementary and pre-school age.

4.

Assigning Projected Kindergarten Students to Their Elementary Schools

The total number of Kindergarten students are projected on a district-wide basis and distributed to each of the elementary schools on a percentage basis. The percentage is calculated using the number of first grade in each elementary school relative to the total number of first graders in the district.

5.

Special Education

In this section the grade K-12 projected enrollments of special education students by school are illustrated for each year through 2017/18.

A building by building approach was used to project the special education students. The historical special education enrollment by building was compiled for the last four years and is presented below in Table 5a. Although a building by building approach was used, these projected students can be reassigned to other locations.

The percentage of special education enrollment is calculated for each of the past four years.

These percentages are then averaged and the average applied to each of the buildings’ projected enrollments to determine the number of special education students for each year through 2017/18 (see Table 5b). This average percentage for each building is shown on Table 5b as SCSE %.

Historically the self-contained special education enrollment remained relatively constant from 2009/10 through 2012/13, averaging 417 students per year, approximately 4.3% of the total districtwide enrollment.

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Table 5a Special Education Actual Enrollments

School Name Chestnut Hill ES Forest Park ES Otsego ES Paumanok ES Signal Hill ES Sunquam ES Vanderbilt ES Candlewood MS West Hollow MS Half Hollow HS East Half Hollow HS West TOTAL

2009/10 Total

2011/12

2010/11

SCSE %

5% 2% 7% 2% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 6%

Total SCSE

599 565 626 697 623 642 585 1,070 1,455 1,733 1,433

30 13 41 14 23 34 30 52 56 47 81

570 513 594 684 603 608 562 1,080 1,470 1,774 1,422

22 11 43 16 22 48 23 51 48 52 74

10,028

421 4% 9,880 410

%

Total SCSE

4% 2% 7% 2% 4% 8% 4% 5% 3% 3% 5%

502 498 577 635 561 539 497 1,074 1,497 1,809 1,480

24 13 36 13 13 34 24 57 53 57 86

4% 9,669 410

2012/13 %

5% 3% 6% 2% 2% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 6%

Total SCSE

480 504 528 589 559 528 450 1,036 1,417 1,856 1,490

%

23 21 24 26 20 23 18 67 56 58 89

5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 6% 4% 3% 6%

4% 9,437 425

5%

Table 5b Special Education Projected Enrollments

School Name

SCSE

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

%

Total

SCSE

Total

SCSE

Total

SCSE

Chestnut Hill ES

5%

454

23

432

22

407

20

394

20

379

19

Forest Park ES

478

14

439

13

411

12

396

12

374

11

Otsego ES Paumanok ES

3% 6% 3%

Signal Hill ES Sunquam ES Vanderbilt ES Candlewood MS West Hollow MS Half Hollow HS East Half Hollow HS West

4% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 6%

495 559 564 519 406 973 1,324 1,878 1,465

30 17 23 31 20 39 53 56 88

443 502 541 487 355 923 1,232 1,933 1,473

27 15 22 29 18 37 49 58 88

426 439 529 461 329 879 1,251 1,877 1,370

26 13 21 28 16 35 50 56 82

407 399 508 465 282 829 1,221 1,784 1,323

24 12 20 28 14 33 49 54 79

390 363 517 477 275 738 1,124 1,733 1,277

23 11 21 29 14 30 45 52 77

9,115

394 8,760 378 8,379

360

8,008 345 7,647 331

TOTAL

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Total SCSE Total

SCSE

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6.

New Construction

As described, the cohort survival projection methodology employs an “averaging” technique.

Past enrollments are averaged by grade to calculate the survival ratio for each grade pair.

These past enrollments take into account new construction, in-migration and out-migration occurring from housing turnovers, mortality, new business, etc.

New construction is reflected by the number of Building Permits. This construction includes single family dwellings and one, two or three bedroom condominiums.

The table below identifies the number of Building Permits issued for new residential housing units. Pertinent to this study are the permits listed in the ‘unincorporated’ areas for the towns of Huntington and Babylon as the Half Hollow Hills school district is comprised of these geographic areas.

New Residential Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit Suffolk County, New York

Town of Huntington Unincorporated Asharoken Village Huntington Bay Village Lloyd Harbor Village Northport Village Town of Babylon Unincorporated Amityville Village Babylon Village Lindenhurst Village

2008 78 72 1 1 4 0 342 255 73 9 5

2009 84 76 4 1 3 0 52 30 6 15 1

2010 69 62 1 1 3 2 22 20 0 1 1

2011 47 40 0 1 2 4 19 15 0 1 3

2012 66 61 0 1 1 3 65 42 0 1 22

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Construction Statistics Division)

On the average over the past five years, 62 permits were issued for the unincorporated areas of the town of Huntington; with an average of 72 permits issued for the unincorporated areas of Babylon over the same period. The current number of permits issued is not significantly higher than the average to warrant an adjustment in the projected enrollments. However, there is an indication that the trend in building has ‘bottomed out’ in 2011, with an upturn occurring in 2012. This trend merits attention over the next several years.

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7.

Births

The live births from Half Hollow Hills CSD for the years 2003 through 2012, used to project Kindergarten enrollments, were obtained from the was obtained from the New York State Department of Health. These were reported by school district area i.e. specifically Half Hollow Hills.

Year

Births

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

547 472 467 414 407 376 337 360 329 <351>

Figure 5 Birth History by Year

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V.

HISTORIC/PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS

BY BUILDING, YEAR AND GRADE

Note: Special Education students are included in the enrollments.

Projections are based on a survival ratio using 5 years of enrollment history.

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Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

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ENROLLMENTS BY BUILDING AND YEAR Chestnut Hill Elementary School - Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

78 85 124 110 128 119 644

90 80 83 139 111 131 634

80 90 89 92 133 115 599

79 86 87 91 93 134 570

67 73 86 85 98 93 502

67 74 71 88 83 97 480

Chestnut Hill Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

67 74 71 88 83 97 480

64 68 76 72 90 84 454

57 65 69 77 73 91 432

61 58 66 70 78 74 407

56 62 59 67 71 79 394

59 57 63 60 68 72 379

Forest Park Elementary School - Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

89 86 111 112 106 117 621

87 99 84 108 113 105 596

72 88 100 80 113 112 565

64 77 90 91 81 110 513

72 72 86 91 93 84 498

66 81 72 90 99 96 504

Forest Park Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

66 81 72 90 99 96 504

63 67 83 73 92 100 478

56 64 68 84 74 93 439

60 57 65 69 85 75 411

55 61 58 66 70 86 396

59 56 62 59 67 71 374

Prepared by Applied Data Services For Half Hollow Hills CSD

Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

19

Otsego Elementary School - Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

91 101 120 109 115 124 660

115 95 105 122 109 118 664

78 108 97 101 126 116 626

67 80 110 104 105 128 594

97 70 85 115 105 105 577

69 78 78 83 115 105 528

Otsego Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

69 78 78 83 115 105 528

66 70 80 79 84 116 495

59 67 71 81 80 85 443

63 60 68 72 82 81 426

57 64 61 69 73 83 407

61 58 65 62 70 74 390

Paumanok Elementary School- Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

84 118 136 120 142 133 733

115 81 118 132 122 138 706

108 112 85 128 135 129 697

95 112 109 98 130 140 684

93 90 113 119 94 126 635

64 92 94 124 117 98 589

Paumanok Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

64 92 94 124 117 98 589

61 65 94 95 126 118 559

55 62 66 95 97 127 502

58 56 63 67 97 98 439

53 59 57 64 68 98 399

57 54 60 58 65 69 363

Prepared by Applied Data Services For Half Hollow Hills CSD

Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

20

Signal Hill Elementary School - Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

100 103 123 99 120 113 658

98 95 106 116 106 122 643

102 99 99 101 121 101 623

86 100 104 90 99 124 603

80 91 106 94 90 100 561

91 74 100 98 107 89 559

Signal Hill Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

91 74 100 98 107 89 559

87 92 76 101 100 108 564

78 88 94 77 103 101 541

83 79 90 95 78 104 529

76 84 81 91 97 79 508

81 77 86 82 93 98 517

Sunquam Elementary School - Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

99 102 116 119 99 110 645

104 100 101 102 121 103 631

105 112 104 96 104 121 642

74 107 109 107 101 110 608

57 76 106 107 93 100 539

84 65 70 105 109 95 528

Sunquam Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

84 65 70 105 109 95 528

80 85 66 71 107 110 519

72 81 87 67 72 108 487

76 73 83 88 68 73 461

70 77 75 84 90 69 465

75 71 79 76 85 91 477

Prepared by Applied Data Services For Half Hollow Hills CSD

Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

21

Vanderbilt Elementary School - Enrollment History Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

91 89 111 119 106 137 653

83 83 92 122 122 105 607

71 87 82 99 126 120 585

89 70 93 85 97 128 562

46 88 70 95 97 101 497

49 51 87 72 96 95 450

Vanderbilt Elementary School - Projected Enrollment Grade Kindergarten First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

49 51 87 72 96 95 450

47 49 52 88 73 97 406

42 47 50 52 90 74 355

45 42 48 50 53 91 329

41 45 43 48 51 54 282

44 41 46 43 49 52 275

Candlewood Middle School - Enrollment History Grade Sixth Seventh Eighth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

338 369 341 1,048

382 344 372 1,098

336 387 347 1,070

350 342 388 1,080

369 358 347 1,074

300 368 368 1,036

Candlewood Middle School - Projected Enrollment Grade Sixth Seventh Eighth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

300 368 368 1,036

299 302 372 973

316 302 305 923

255 319 305 879

250 257 322 829

226 252 260 738

West Hollow Middle School - Enrollment History Grade Sixth Seventh Eighth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

480 485 437 1,402

476 480 489 1,445

494 479 482 1,455

486 501 483 1,470

517 477 503 1,497

414 519 484 1,417

Prepared by Applied Data Services For Half Hollow Hills CSD

Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

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West Hollow Middle School - Projected Enrollment Grade Sixth Seventh Eighth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

414 519 484 1,417

383 417 524 1,324

424 387 421 1,232

432 428 391 1,251

353 436 432 1,221

329 355 440 1,124

Half Hollow Hills HS East - Enrollment History Grade Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

435 417 409 444 1,705

427 434 419 397 1,677

452 426 441 414 1,733

457 450 434 433 1,774

457 458 449 445 1,809

467 467 460 462 1,856

Half Hollow Hills HS East - Projected Enrollment Grade Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

467 467 460 462 1,856

465 473 472 468 1,878

504 471 478 480 1,933

405 510 476 486 1,877

375 410 515 484 1,784

416 379 414 524 1,733

Half Hollow Hills HS West - Enrollment History Grade Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Total

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

333 367 330 355 1,385

334 339 363 335 1,371

359 348 342 384 1,433

336 377 351 358 1,422

398 340 377 365 1,480

341 398 358 393 1,490

Half Hollow Hills HS West - Enrollment History Grade Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Total

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

341 398 358 393 1,490

354 345 402 364 1,465

358 358 348 409 1,473

293 362 361 354 1,370

293 297 366 367 1,323

309 296 300 372 1,277

Prepared by Applied Data Services For Half Hollow Hills CSD

Final Report- August 1, 2013 Demographic Study for 2012/13 School Year

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