SCENARIO REPORT
2035
FLTR
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0
INTRODUCTION /6
2.0
SCENARIO DRIVERS /8
3.0
SCENARIO 1 /10
4.0
SCENARIO 2 /16
5.0
CONCLUSIONS /18
6.0
SOURCES /22
INTRODUCTION
“We are all in the same boat� they say. It is the truth. Maybe not literally, but we are all in the same boat; planet Earth. Nobody knows what the future might hold. But one thing is for certain: it will effect all of us. The future is unpredictable but some patterns within our society give us accurate hints of what’s to come. This scenario report does this by giving the reader a plausible overview of the world in the year 2035. The report is based on current certainties and uncertainties. Aspects of the current world are panned out in future environments based on research. Patterns within present day demographics in combination with the political, economical, environmental & technological landscape are analyzed in order to create a convincing scenario. The report is meant to give a coherent snapshot of the future and the possible ways it might develop into. A good scenario is of help when making decisions regarding the viability of a brand or organization in the future. It is a powerful tool within marketing strategies and the creation of a brand, in this case for: FLTR.
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MAIN SCENARIO DRIVERS Privacy has been an increasingly important topic of debate in the midst of our technological world. [1] The boundaries between what can and cannot be accessed by the government has been fluctuating thanks to controversial legislation that infringes basic human rights. Consumerism has reached unprecedented levels causing major economical imbalances. [2] “We buy things we don’t need with money we don’t have to impress people we don’t like.” as said by Author Dave Ramsey. We chose the following main drivers because we believe that these topics are highly unpredictable and important right now and will surely be in the future.
How will legislation shape the future of privacy? Will the global wealth gap fluctuate? 8
POSITIONING GRAPH
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
[1] Nancy Gibs, 2016, The Privacy Debate. [2] Thomas Piketty, 2014, Capital in the Twenty-First Century.
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2020
Middle class starting to vanish.
Access to cyber footprint without concent is made legal.
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2030
Ivasive legislation passes.
2025
Government asks social media giants for open access to servers.
2015
ZERO PRIVACY Privacy has progressively been an issue ever since the beginning of the century. Today it is only a notion of the past. A non-existing luxury even money can’t buy. This immense loss of personal privacy is the norm thanks to new controversial laws allowing open-source access to everyone’s cyber footprint. Hyper consumeristic culture has caused the vanishment of the middle class. The wealth gap between the higher and the lower class has reached unprecedented levels. Some people are calling it a throwback to the aristocracy period, due to the immense difference between the rich royalty and the poor peasants.. While many advancements towards global welfare have been made, there is an overpowering feeling of discontent among citizens towards the economical and governmental system. On the other hand, people and businesses in general are more conscious regarding the earth’s resources. Medical advancements have completely changed the perception of life.
It’s the year 2035 on planet earth. While some things stayed the same since the beginning of the 21st century, many others have changed drastically. Most citizens don’t express the feeling of safety anymore. Legislation dating back to the first decade of the century have paved the way towards an extreme loss of privacy. [3] Both in the virtual world as well as the physical one. Personal data is not only made accessible to official institutions but also to everyone who has access to the web. Self-driving electric cars are popular, but come with a hefty moral price tag; your privacy. [4] These cars come with pre-set factory settings which cannot be overwritten. One of them being real-time location sharing, making 24-7 surveillance possible. Many pro-privacy activists are blaming radical politicians of the time for carrying out a rather invasive strategy towards national security. [5] This has led to a rise of distrust towards the established government. [6] Democracy as we knew it has taken another facet into a Gerontocracy. [7] A government driven by the elderly elite. [3] Jeff Dunn, 2017, Trump just killed Obama’s internet-privacy rules. [4] Sam Abuelsamid, 2015, We May Be Sacrificing Our Remaining Privacy For Self-Driving Cars. [5] Jeff Dunn, 2017, House Republicans just voted to let your internet provider sell your browsing history without your permission. [6] CBS Statistics, 2017, Trust in others, legal system and politics; European comparison. [7] Aaron Blake, 2014, The average age of the Democratic House leadership is 64. It’s 53 for Republicans.
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Thanks to technological advancements people live increasingly longer. [8] This makes it possible for rich seniors to hold on to their power and money for a longer period of time.
Ideas of alternative governmental systems are gaining popularity. One of them being an Artificial Intelligence singleton. [9] In 2016 the “Replika” app was launched, initially as a personal bot that people could talk to and teach the way humans think and talk. [10] It later on became evident that “Replika” was part of a covert program conducted by the government to gather intelligence to create the smartest AI entity the human race has ever seen.
By now AI has proven to be at least a trillion times more intelligent than the average human being. [11] It by far excels the human brain functionality. Supporters of this idea argue that an AI singleton could reshape the future of the planet towards increased welfare. It could lead towards an unbiased power structure that will serve in everyone’s interests, not only the elite.
[8] Meera Senthilingam, 2017, Life expectancy will exceed 85 in many countries by 2030. [9] Tod Newcombe, 2016, Artificial Intelligence: The Next Big Thing in Government. [10] Ellen Huet, 2016, Pushing the Boundaries of AI to Talk to the Dead. [11] Stuart Russell, 2017, 3 principles for creating smarter AI.
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To many, this idea of worldwide welfare is an ideal. Specially because of the current wealth gap. [12] The turning of the century brought with it what we called the “fast fashion” phenomenon and skyrocketed an already existing consumerism culture to the maximum. [13] The average person would consume 400% more in comparison to the previous decades. [14] People became increasingly poor during this time, which led to the disappearance of the middle class. [15] There are either really rich people or extremely poor ones. Basic needs like a home, life insurance and education became extremely expensive. Educational institutions faced funding problems over the past two decades causing numerous bankruptcies. Teacher-to-peer educational environments are only available for those who can afford it. In the contrary, other affordable learning programs have been fully digitalized. [16] This social economical unbalance is clearly evident thanks to controversial privacy regulations, allowing public access to sensitive data such as banking documents and statements. Banking is fully digital now, cash money was lastly used 10 years ago. [17] The wallet at it’s entirety faced the same demise shortly after. It was replaced by multi-functional chip implants that track what you buy and where you are at any given moment. [18] [12] Dale Archer, 2013, Could America’s Wealth Gap Lead To A Revolt? [13] EuroMonitor, 2017, The New Consumerism: The Data Behind the Trends. [14] Andrew Morgan, 2015, The True Cost. [15] Paul Mason, 2015, The strange case of America’s disappearing middle class. [16] The Economist, 2014, The Digital Degree. [17] Jeremy Gaunt, 2017, Cashless society getting closer, survey finds. [18] James Brooks, 2017, Swedish start-up has started implanting microchips into its employees.
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General acceptance towards wearable technology made the arrival of the chip a less harsh one. Subcultures have emerged around the idea that humans can evolve above bodily limitations through wearable technology. They call themselves the “cyborgs”. [19] This idea behind transhumanism has grown into people’s aspirations. Especially since the decline of fertility rates among men and women. [20] Only 1 in 4 women can reproduce naturally, miscarriages are almost inevitable without assistance. Artificial wombs are fully functional now. What started as a response to the rise of infertility rates is now fully enacted thanks to research and trials conducted in the previous decades. [21] Besides artificial wombs and increased life expectancy technology has brought with it other medical wonders. HIV/AIDS is a thing of the past. Vigorous research and trials have finally paid off. [22] Doctors are able to completely eradicate the virus from the human DNA and immune system. Numbers of infected patients have dropped from 40 to 10% this year alone. With automation taking over the majority of the labor, people have turned their focus to old fashioned craftsmanship and agriculture. [23] Trend analysts are calling it an “evolutionary throwback”. Long lost human traits are making a refreshing comeback. [19] Olivia Solon, 2017, Elon Musk says humans must become cyborgs to stay relevant. [20] OurWorldInData.org: Max Roser, 2015, Fertility. [21] Hannah Devlin, 2017, Artificial womb for premature babies successful in animal trials. [22] Jon Cohen, 2017, AIDS vaccine may be ‘functional cure’ for some. [23] Richard Gray, 2017, How Automation Will Affect you.
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Thanks to technology, we have become smarter when it comes to agriculture. The impact on the planet is lessened by the minimal use of resources. Namely because of vertical farming. [24] Plantations are integrated into skyscrapers. They are called the “sky gardens”. This technique minimizes the use of land. It is illegal to practice any other kind of farming nowadays. [25] In an another attempt to promote green living, the government has passed environmental friendly laws prohibiting the use of traditional faucets that waste water. Modern faucets atomize water to economize water use. With the vanishing of the middle class, came the disappearance of the consumeristic culture. What was once called “fast fashion” does not exist anymore. [26] Anti fast fashion activists from the time started a moral debate that caused a mindset change within consumers. [27] This new wave of activists and the vanishment of the middle class were a killer combination for many fast fashion giants. Consumer behavior took a shift. People went from senselessly buying things to investing in experiences. [28]
[24] Chris Baraniuk, 2017, How Vertical Farming Reinvents Agriculture. [25] TheOrganic.Life, 2016, Government Policies for Improving Agricultural Productivity. [26] Alden Wicker, 2016, Fast Fashion is Creating an Environmental Crisis. [27] Lucy Siegle, 2017, The eco guide to fast fashion. [28] TrendWatching, 2017, 5 Consumer Trends for 2017.
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Physical things have taken the backseat to make way to virtual ones. Most brands are focused on offering experiences in the digital realm. [29]
Garments are being made not only for the physical world but more importantly for the many virtual man-made wonderlands. [30] Most people buy these garments in virtual shopping centers, which are access with VR headsets. On the other hand, in comparison to the bright digital wonderlands, other virtual landscapes of a grim nature are being made. A space of dismal specially made for cyber-wars. [31] Battles are widely performed within these environments.
[29] WGSN Vision Team, 2016, Psychotropical. [30] Nicole Morely, 2016, Plans for London’s very own indoor tropical paradise revealed. [31] World Economic Forum, 2016, 10 trends for the future of warfare.
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Soldiers have taken a trans-humanistic appearance thanks to intelligent wearable weapons. [32] But one of the most common and effective ways of attack is carried out against mega data servers that can bring people in real physical danger. Most recently, international airports all over the world were attacked by a ruthless malware virus that tampered with airport tower signals misleading pilots into crashing planes filled with passengers. These cyber attacks are making governments and their militaries vulnerable. [33] With everything that has happened, planet earth is far from balanced. Negative aspects of our daily lives like, cyber wars, the loss of privacy and the vanishment of the middle class in combination with more positive ones like, new technology and a general effort towards a greener planet have made a huge impact on the global scale. Many future enthusiasts are seeing this as a fast paced transitionary period in our world. Who knows what’s next?
[32] Mike Phelps, 2015, 10 Hi-Tech Weapons That Will Change War Forever. [33] Mark Thompson, 2016, Iranian Cyber Attack on New York Dam Shows Future of War.
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2020
The start of wealth equality
Access to cyber footprint without concent is made legal.
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2030
legislation protecting privacy passes.
2025
Government asks social media giants for open access to servers.
2015
PRIVACY WEALTH Privacy has increasingly been an issue ever since the beginning of the century. Thanks to vigilant activists from the time, we can now enjoy the luxury that is called privacy. Citizens have total control over their personal lives and cyber footprint. This is the norm thanks to new laws banning open-source access to everyone’s data. Hyper consumeristic culture dimmed down after the second decade of the century. People stopped spending senseless amounts of money on stuff to invest it in personal hobbies. This lead to the equalization of the lower and the higher class. The wealth gap is close to zero. While many advancements towards global welfare have been made, there is an overpowering feeling of discontent among citizens towards the governmental system. Mostly because of ongoing wars between borders. On the other hand, people and businesses in general are more conscious regarding the earth’s resources. Medical advancements have completely changed the perception of life.
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It’s the year 2013 on planet Earth.
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Citizens feel safe regarding their privacy.
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Legislation dating back to the beginning of the century have paved the way towards total personal and cyber privacy.
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The access to personal data is illegal, even for official institutions and tech companies.
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The government is driven by the elderly elite.
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Technological advancements makes it possible for rich seniors to hold unto their power and money for a longer period of time.
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Wars are being fought based on old-fashioned notions and the government’s want to hold unto a dated, self-fulfilling power structure. This has led to a rise of distrust towards the established government.
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Alternative governmental ideas are gaining traction among citizens, like an artificial intelligence singleton.
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There is a general financial welfare and balance between the lower and the higher class.
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Education is available for everyone.
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Banking is fully digital.
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Wearable technology has inspired ideas behind trans-humanistic sub-cultures like the “cyborgs”.
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Medical advancements have change the perception of life.
•
Automation has lead people to focus on craftsmanship and agriculture.
•
People and businesses are more conscious towards the planet and it’s resources.
•
Consumer behavior has shifted. Buying stuff is being replaced by buying experiences.
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CONCLUSION To conclude, we would like to fulfill the purpose of this scenario report and check the viability of our brand FLTR in the year 2035. We believe that FLTR will still be relevant, maybe even more so than right now. As consumers drift towards the experience economy, FLTR will tap into the needs of many customers. Privacy plays a big role in both scenarios and the general zeitgeist of these worlds. The core values of FLTR are based on the idea of altering your identity. We believe that in both scenarios people will be interested in this idea of protecting their appearance.
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They would either do this by censor themselves in times where privacy is not a given, or to simply have the freedom to be whoever they want to be knowing that their privacy is intact. By then, the market would have grown and FLTR would be considered as a pioneer. Our target group would have shifted from being mostly young to a wider age range as the popularity of virtual reality and censorship increases. Technology plays a predominant role within both scenarios. This will surely increase FLTR’s possibilities not only in the production of it’s products, but also in the visual merchandising department and general costumer experience. This will break current technological boundaries, making it possible to fully offer a phygital (a mix between physical and digital) experience in which the boundaries between the physical and the virtual world blur. With the possible fluctuation of the wealth gap in both scenarios, we believe that FLTR would still be affordable for most people in the target group. Our products and experiences would be offered as services based on subscriptions, instead of being sold with a high price tag. So, essentially speaking, our customers will not be paying for the products themselves but for the services given by FLTR. After this conclusion we are for certain that FLTR will survive in the year 2035 and beyond.
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SOURCES
[1] Gibbs, N. (2016) The Privacy Debate [Article] Available at: http://time. com/4262485/the-privacy-debate/ [2] Piketty, T. (2014) Capital in the Twenty-First Century [book] [3] Dunn, J. (2017) Trump just killed Obama’s internet-privacy rules [Article] Available at: https://www.businessinsider.nl/trump-fcc-privacy-rules-repeal-explained-2017-4/ [4] Abuelsamid, S. (2015) We May Be Sacrificing Our Remaining Privacy For Self-Driving Cars [Article] Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2015/11/30/we-may-be-sacrificing-our-remaining-privacyfor-self-driving-cars/#4babffe332da [5] Dunn, J. (2017) House Republicans just voted to let your internet provider sell your browsing history without your permission. [Article] Available at: https://www.businessinsider.nl/house-republicans-kill-fcc-broadband-privacy-rules-2017-3/ [6] Statistics Netherlands (2017) Trust in others, legal system and politics; European comparison [Report] Available at: http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb [7] Blake, A. (2014) The average age of the Democratic House leadership is 64. It’s 53 for Republicans. [Article] Available at: The Washington Post Newspaper [8] Senthilingam, M. (2017) Life expectancy will exceed 85 in many countries by 2030 [Article] Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/21/ health/life-expectancy-increase-globally-by-2030/ [9] Newcombe, T. (2016) Artificial Intelligence: The Next Big Thing in Government [Article] Available at: http://www.governing.com/columns/tech-talk/ gov-artificial-intelligence-government-technology.html
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[10] Huet, E. (2016) Pushing the Boundaries of AI to Talk to the Dead [Article] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/ pushing-the-boundaries-of-ai-to-talk-to-the-dead [11] TED Talk: 3 principles for creating smarter AI (2017) by Stuart Russell [video] [12] Archer, D. (2013) Could America’s Wealth Gap Lead To A Revolt? [Article] Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/09/04/ could-americas-wealth-gap-lead-to-a-revolt/#194f41023c74 [13] Euromonitor (2017) The New Consumerism: The Data Behind the Trends [Report] Available at: http://www.euromonitor.com [14] The True Cost (2015) by Andrew Morgan [film] [15] Mason, P. (2015) The strange case of America’s disappearing middle class. [Article] Available at: The Guardian Newspaper [16] The Economist (2014) The Digital Degree [Article] Available at: http:// www.economist.com/news/briefing/21605899-staid-higher-education-business-about-experience-welcome-earthquake-digital [17] Gaunt, J. (2017) Cashless society getting closer, survey finds [Article] Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-cashidUSKBN17S001 [18] Brooks, J. (2017) A Swedish start-up has started implanting microchips into its employees. [Article] Available at: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/03/ start-up-epicenter-implants-employees-with-microchips.html [19] Solon, O. (2017) Elon Musk says humans must become cyborgs to stay relevant [Article] Available at: The Guardian Newspaper [20] OurWorldInData.org: Max Roser (2015) Fertility [Report] Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/ [21] Devlin, H. (2017) Artificial womb for premature babies successful in animal trials. [Article] Available at: The Guardian Newspaper
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[22] Cohen, J. (2017) AIDS vaccine may be ‘functional cure’ for some. [Article] Available at: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/aids-vaccinemay-be-functional-cure-some [23] Gray, R. (2017) How Automation Will Affect You [Article] Available at: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170522-how-automation-will-affectyou-the-experts-view [24] Baraniuk, C. (2017) How Vertical Farming Reinvent Agriculture [Article] Available at: hhttp://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170405-how-vertical-farming-reinvents-agriculture [25] TheOrganic.Life (2016) Government Policies for Improving Agricultural Productivity [Article] Available at: http://blog.theorganic.life/blog/government-policies-improving-agricultural-productivity/ [26] Wicker, A. (2016) Fast Fashion is Creating an Environmental Crisis [Article] Available at: http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/09/old-clothes-fashion-waste-crisis-494824.html [27] Siegle, L. (2017) The eco guide to fast fashion [Article] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/23/the-eco-guideto-fast-fashion [28] TrendWatching (2017) 5 Consumer Trends for 2017 [Report] Available at: http://www.trendwatching.com [29] WGSN Vision Team (2014) Psychotropical. [Report] Available at: http:// www.wgsn.com [30] Morely, N. (2016) Plans for London’s very own indoor tropical paradise revealed [Article] Available at: http://metro.co.uk/2016/01/16/in-picsplans-for-londons-very-own-indoor-tropical-paradise-revealed-5626982/ [31] World Economic Forum (2016) 10 Trends for the future of warfare [Article] Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/ the-4th-industrial-revolution-and-international-security
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[32] Phelps, M. (2015) 10 Hi-Tech Weapons That Will Change War Forever [Article] Available at: http://www.therichest.com/business/technology/10hi-tech-weapons-that-will-change-war-forever/ [33] Thompson, M. (2016) Iranian Cyber Attack on New York Dam Shows Future of War [Article] Available at: http://time.com/4270728/iran-cyber-attack-dam-fbi/
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