Renewable Cities in Developing Countries by hitanshu jishtu

UNIVERSITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN Institute of Architecture and Planning F端rst-Franz-Josef-Strasse 9490 Vaduz

Author: Hitanshu Jishtu Research Report in partial fulfilment of semester 3 of MA in Architecture, University of Liechtenstein, Sustainable Urban Design Studio Supervisor: Peter Droege DI MAAS MCPIA Professor Sustainable Development

Renewable cities in developing countries Hitanshu Jishtu Research Semester Â WS 2012-13 Supervisor Prof. DI MAAS Peter Droege Master of Science in Architecture SUSTAINABLE URBAN DESIGN STUDIO

CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

PART 1: Case for Renewable Cities 1.1 Ecological and Carbon Footprint 1.11 Population growth 12

1.12 Urbanisation

1.2 Fossil Fuel Dependence 1.21 Peak Oil

1.22 Climate Change

14 15 16

PART 2: Idea of a City Independent of Fossil Fuels 2.0 Renewable Energy Potential 2.01 Solar 22

2.02 Wind 2.03 Geothermal 2.04 Tidal and Wave 2.05 Biomass

22 23 23 23

2.1 Urban Development Alternatives 24 2.11 New Urbanism 25

2.12 Sustainable Urbanism 2.13 Eco Cities 2.14 One Planet Concept 26 2.15 2000 W Society 2.16 Carbon Neutral Cities

25 26 26 26

2.2 Renewable Cities 2.21 VĂ¤xjĂś 30

2.22 Thisted 2.23 Guessing, Austria 2.24 Samsoe, Denmark

PART 3: Challenges in Developing Countries 3.1 Urbanisation levels 3.11 Energy Usage

3.13 Fuel Type use

30 31 31

3.22 Lack Of Infrastructure

3.3 Structure Of Cities 3.31 Disparity

3.32 City Densities

3.42 Fossil Fuel Dependence

38 38 39

4.22 Energy Efficient Buildings

4.32 Cycling Infrastructure & Sharing 4.33 Green Mobility Solutions

4.42 Wind Power 4.43 Bioenergy 4.44 Others

48 49

4.4 Energy Generation 4.41 Solar Power 51

43 46

4.3 Mobility 4.31 Bus Rapid Transport 48

PART 4: Path to a Renewable City in Developing Countries 4.1 Master planning 4.2 Buildings 4.21 Building Standards 46

3.4 Policies 3.41 Fossil Fuel Based Infrastructure 40

35 36

3.2 Development Status 3.21 Poverty 36

52 53 54

PART 5: Incentives of a Renewable City 5.1 Healthy city 5.2 Local employment opportunities 5.3 Infrastructure development 5.5 Harmonious city 5.6 Resilience for Climate Change

55 55 56 56 57

PART 6: Conclusion And Taking The Research Forward.. 6.1 Chandigarh

59 60

References 62 List of Figures 65 Affidavit 68

1. INTRODUCTION

The ecological footprint of the human population today is more than the capacity of the world to sustain it. It may further go up as the population and urbanisation percentage is growing. The population and consumption statistics in developed countries are more static now but rapidly growing in developing nations, in fact almost all the growth forecast is projected to be in the developing countries. But the growth pattern being followed is on the same lines as what is prevalent in the cities of the developed world today, relying heavily on fossil fuels. This is an area of concern because firstly fossil fuels are running out so what happens to cities 50 years down the line, but most importantly burning of fossil fuels is bringing upon climate change. Cities consume more than 75% of the energy and so any solution to the problem will perhaps have to be found there. The viable substitute of fossil fuels in the form of renewable energies is a possible option and integrating them in the built environment is the idea behind renewable cities. Fossil fuel free cities and regions have already taken shape and are being proposed as a solution to many existing cities in numerous studies. The research looks at the option with respect to the developing countries and specific impediments intrinsic to them to be overcome. The research looks at examples both in the developed and developing countries which could be replicated to have a working future of a renewable city in a developing country. The first part builds up the case for looking at the option of alternatives to the current cities dependent of fossil fuels. The second part looks at the alternatives which are being looked at in the world, to get over this crisis. The third part of the report lists out the obstacles to be overcome to achieve the aim of a fossil fuel free urbanisation in a developing country. This is done in a manner to justify for a different methodology as compared to a developed country city and it is done so in a comparative way. The fourth part looks at the implementable ideas in a city which can help give a direction to the aim of renewable city in a developing country. The ideas are explored under the groupings of master planning, buildings, mobility solutions and energy generation options. The fifth part of the report outlays the incentives which could be achieved by following the approach, and the last part outlines a design research proposal which could be taken forward to see how this idea could be suggested for a city in a developing country. 7

PART 1. CASE FOR RENEWABLE CITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Since the 1970s, humanity has been in ecological overshoot with annual demand on resources exceeding what Earth can regenerate each year. Global footprint Network, Â www.footprintnetwork.org 8

1. THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT The ecological footprint is the impact a human has on the planet, counting all the resources required for living. It takes into account the humanities requirement to generate food, energy, essential areas like forests and areas to sequester the wastes all humanity generates. This footprint has been on the rise because of population pressure and the human consumption patterns and footprint combined for all humanity exceeds the capacity of the Earth to support them. What this means is that the Earth cannot regenerate itself back as quickly as the resources are consumed. Today it requires the equivalent of 1.4 Earths to support the human population on the planet. 1 The developed nations today far exceed the consumption with some high consuming nations like the US requiring the equivalent of 5 planets to support the lifestyle of an average citizen. The developing countries on the other hand have the footprint Â Â on a more sustainable scale at the moment. The ecological footprint of a citizen in Bangladesh who uses less of Earths natural resources can be fulfilled with just 0.6 Earths. (see fig. 1.2)

Figure 1.1 The Components of Ecological footprint.

Figure 1.2 Number of Earths required if everyone lived as per the per capita consumption figures of the country.

CARBON FOOTPRINT The carbon component of the ecological footprint is termed as the carbon footprint. It puts a figure at the demands on the planet which is put on it primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. It takes into account the amount of land and sea required to sequester the carbon dioxide released. The carbon footprint has the highest consideration on the ecological footprint scale and is rapidly increasing.(fig 1.3) 2 Figure 1.3 The Carbon footprint as a component of the ecological footprint.

1. WWF, 2008 2. UNDP, 2010

3. Mackay, 2008

The footprint is rising primarily because of 3 reasons: 1. Rising Population 2. Urbanisation 3. Rising consumption of resources

Figure 1.4 The Carbon emissions per capita divided by regions. The difference between the lowest and the highest emitters is 4 times.3

1. 11 POPULATION OF THE WORLD IS INCREASING The human population of the World has increased many times over from less than 1 billion in the beginning of the 19th century to the current 7 Billions. By 2050 this is projected to increase further to 9 billion. Each additional person on this planet puts added pressure on the resources and with an additional 2 billion people, the stress on the planet will be that much greater. 1

Figure 1.5 The estimated Historic population of the world. It is estimated the population of the world crossed one billion some time in 1800.

Figure 1.6 The projected population of the world, source United Nations Populations Fund 2010.

The median age of the population in developing countries is 29 years.1 With more young people the expected population will generally increase in developing countries. The industrialized nations have already stabilized their population at a little over 1.2 billion and all the expected population growth is expected to happen in the developing nations. 60 million people are added to the urban population annually in developing countries. Much of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population growth will be in cities in Asia and Africa, whose urban populations are set to double between 2000-2030 to 3.4 billion. 2

1. UN-Habitat 2012 2. UNDP 2010 3. Droege 2008 4. UNHABITAT 2010 5. Davis 2006

1. 12 THE WORLD IS GETTING MORE URBANISED Urbanisation equals development. This has been brought in studies that as urbanisation increases with people moving away from an agriculture based economy to a service based one the consumption of resources increases. The developed world is more than 80% urbanised today and the consumption far exceeds the developing nations. With rapid urbanisation happening in developing countries this is projected to have a similar effect on the consumption patterns there. 1

Figure 1.7 The Urban population as a percentage of the total population of the country, through the years 1970-2050 source: UNICEF

The consumption of energy is directly proportional to the GDP of the country and the effect of urbanisation and development would mean more stress on the Earths resources. “Rural residents consume less than 40% of the commercial energy used by their urban counterparts,” is the conclusion drawn up the UNDP report on urbanisation in 2007.2 The consumption of energy rises exponentially with urbanisation and as an example, an average resident of Shanghai uses 3 times more energy than an average Chinese. 2 The same fact has been substantiated by comparing the urbanisation, development and energy usage of USA, Japan and rapidly Developing Asia-Pacific Economies, 3 where the authors concluded that at a certain threshold income level and urbanisation the energy usage is comparable as is the fuel used. Urbanisation has meant that the cities have grown proportionally as well and in the last century alone the number of urban agglomerations having a population over 10 million has grown from 2 to over 20. (fig. 1.9) The cities in the developing countries are growing the most, Urban growth rates are highest in the developing world, which absorbs an average of 5 million new urban residents every month and is responsible for 95 per cent of the world’s urban population growth.4 The most growth projected now is in the smaller cities with populations less than a million currently, If mega cities are the brightest stars in urban ferment, three quarters of the burden of future worlds population growth will borne by faintly visible second tier cities and smaller urban areas: places where as UN researchers emphasize, “there is little or no planning to accommodate these people or provide with services”.5 The conditions are less than satisfying with respect to available services and access to resources and this a serious challenge for the cities.

Figure 1.8 The population growth in smaller cities currently less than 1 million people will probably grow the most. Source UNFPA 2010

Figure 1.9 Growth Of Cities In 1950 there were only 2 cities with more than 10 million people, today that no. is more than 20 and is projected to grow up further because of growth of cities primarily in developing nations. source Guardian UK,

2. CITIES ARE DEPENDENT OF FOSSIL FUELS

Cities have grown in historic times depending on the availability of resources. From prehistoric cities relying on biomass to Middle age cities expanded on the power of coal and in the past century fossil fuels have been responsible for suburban spread out of the cities. Cheap energy was one of the main factors that allowed the explosive economic development that occurred during the last century, especially since the end of the WWII. Cars being able to make it easier for people to travel for the daily needs. Fossil fuels have meant that cities can spread out higher and wider as buildings Â became more like machines which could be run on fossil fuels and mobility can be relied on cars which makes the distance to be travelled for everyday tasks more, again relying on fossil fuels.7

Figure 1.10 The Share of Fuels - 1850 to 2008 The energy source is primarily based on fossil fuels with a very small percentage from renewable sources. source: Grubler 2012, Urban Energy Systems

Most commercial forms of energy are derived from fossil fuels (notably coal, oil and natural gas) and consumption of them has grown even fasterâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;increasing roughly 20-fold in the 20th century alone. Nonrenewable, carbon-emitting, fossil fuels now supply approximately 80 percent of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s primary energy needs (see Figure 1.10). On a per capita basis, people in the developed societies now use more than 100 times the quantity of energy that was used by their ancestors before humans learned to exploit the energy potential of fire 6 Growth of cities is the growth of use of fossil fuels. More than 80% of the energy needs of the world is provided for by fossil fuels. 1 Oil, gas and coal which together provide 87% of the world energy are convenient, powerful and, until now, still cheap to obtain. 2 The use of energy is overwhelmingly concentrated in urban areas, where 75% of the energy consumption takes place, and the urbanization trend remains firm. 3 They contribute in the running of the cities from lighting, heating to most transportation energy requirements today. Urban energy use accounts for between 60% and 80% of global energy use.3 Total energy use is therefore already predominantly urban. This fossil fuel based growth pattern has been taken as a model in most developing cities today as well and the fossil fuel use is growing there in contrast to developed nations where their use is static or recently even declining. 3

The highly problematic patterns of fossil-fuel dependent urbanisation are still expanding across the world. 12

Figure 1.11 The 2010 US Fuel usage by sector

Girardet 2010

2.1 PEAK OIL: FOSSIL FUELS ARE FINITE

"The consumption of a finite resource is simply a finite venture and the faster we use the quicker it peaks" M. Simmons. 7 Fossil fuels have been formed over millions of years and usage of a finite resource will inevitably end sooner or later. We are now somewhere very near, at or past the peak oil, which means we have exhausted half the reserves of oil build up over millions of years in the last 150 years since the first well was dug in the year 1859. Some studies suggest we have already surpassed the peak oil or are very near to it. Possibly the years 2006 to 2014 are cited as the likely time frame for this to occur.1 From there on the availability of conventional fossil oil will only decrease. This is a serious issue because all the developing countries have their previously mentioned growth models factored with energy supply from fossil fuels. 6

1. Newmann et all 2008 2. UNDP 2010 3. Pareto 2007 4. National Geographic 2012 5. Girardet 2010 6. Grubler 2012 7. Haas 2012

Extracting oil is an energy intensive operation. As an example the Tar sands in Canada hold a significant quantity of oil but to recover it energy equivalent to 1 barrel of oil is needed to recover 2 barrels from it. 1 Oil in most cases is not in the liquid flowing state in the crude form. In most oil wells it is a waxy solid and to extract it from the ground requires enormous energy to super heat water which is pumped into the well to dissolve the crude oil and then pumping up the resulting mixture of oil and water to be separated. All this process is energy intensive and to extract 10 barrels of oil may require the energy equivalent to 1 to 5 barrels of oil itself.3 Even after all these operations all the oil from oil wells is not recoverable as after a significant amount has been extracted the amount of oil in the mixture will diminish to the point that the amount recoverable is not feasible to run the well profitably. Total world reserves of fossil fuels are assumed to be around 180 billion TCE of natural gas, 300 billion TCE of mineral oil, shale and liquid gas, and 600 billion TCE of coal (all forms), adding up to the impressive amount of 1,100 billion TCE. On the other side is the world consumption rate, which is currently around 14 billion TCE. 2 The current reserves of fossil fuels assuming steady current consumption figures will run out soon. Oil in the next 46 years, Gas in the next 60 years and Coal in another 110 years.1

Figure 1.12 Oil Production from 1950 to 2050 Availability of conventional petroleum production capacity is declining – peak having been reached probably around 2006 to 2014.

Figure 1.13 The last frontiers 1. This used to be a forest, Extracting oil from Tar sands in Canada. The tar sands below the forests hold vast amount of oil but is painstakingly difficult to obtain requiring massive amounts of energy to extract it. According to the National Geographic society, Undisturbed until now, these trees may soon fall: This land has already been staked out by prospectors. 4

“If everyone consumed as much energy as the average Singaporean and U.S. resident, the world’s oil reserves would be depleted in 9 years” 3

Figure 1.14 The last frontier 2 Searching for oil in the last places on Earth, the arctic.

Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Question 2.1

How do Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change and How do They Compare with Natural Influences?

2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE For centuries the level of CO2 inHuman the atmosphere had remained stable activities contribute to climate change by causing within a narrow band, but in the last 2 centuries concentration changes in Earth’s atmosphere inthe the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest known has suddenly shot up from a level of 280 ppm to the current 395ppm contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases aero(fig. 1.15). This rise can be directly attributed to the burning of and fossil sols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and outfuels which releases the fossilised carbon as CO into the atmosphere. going infrared (thermal) radiation 2 that are part of Earth’s energy abundance or properties of According to climate scientistsbalance. this Changing is whattheisatmospheric hastening the process of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate change as its a green climate house gasSince responsible for warming up of system. the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warmthe atmosphere. 1 ing influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.

What is the safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere and to what level of Greenhouse Gases warming of the atmosphere before serious irreparable damage is Human activities result in emissions of four principal greendone is matter of confrontation, but most scientists have warned that house gases: carbon dioxide (CO ), methane (CH ), nitrous oxide O) and the halocarbons (a group of gases containing fluorine, a 2 degree rise in the average(Ntemperature itself could bring about chlorine and bromine). These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, serious harmful effects. To becausing on the safe side of this the amount concentrations to increase with time. Significant increases in all of have occurred inat thewhat industriallevel era (seeis Figure of CO2 in the atmosphere needs tothese begases maintained 1). All of these increases are attributable to human activities. a matter of great debate and most experts suggest to reduce it to • Carbon dioxide has increased from fossil fuel use in transportation,as building and cooling the looking manufactureat of 350ppm. If the situation continues it isheating currently weand are cement and other goods. Deforestation releases CO and rea steady rise in the atmosphericduces temperature on the Earth, with a 6 its uptake by plants. Carbon dioxide is also released in natural processes such as the decay offig plant matter. deg rise in temp with business as usual situation.(see 1.16) 2

FAQ 2.1, Figure 1. Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenFigure 1.15 The atmospheric concentration of CO the last 2 ,over house gases over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to 2000 years. Increase since 1750 can be attributed to fossil fuel use. human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (Data combined and simplified from Chapters 6 and 2 of this report.)

• Ozone is a greenhouse gas that is continually produced and destroyed in the atmosphere by chemical reactions. In the troposphere, human activities have increased ozone through the release of gases such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide, which chemically react to produce ozone. As mentioned above, halocarbons released by human activities destroy ozone in the stratosphere and have caused the ozone hole over Antarctica.

• Methane has increased as a result of human activities related to agriculture, natural gas distribution and landfills. Methane is also released from natural processes that occur, for example, in wetlands. Methane concentrations are not currently increasing in the atmosphere because growth rates decreased over the last two decades.

• Water vapour is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. However, human activities have only a small direct influence on the amount of atmospheric water vapour. Indirectly, humans have the potential to affect water vapour substantially by changing climate. For example, a warmer atmosphere contains more water vapour. Human activities also influence water vapour through CH4 emissions, because CH4 undergoes chemical destruction in the stratosphere, producing a small amount of water vapour.

• Nitrous oxide is also emitted by human activities such as fertilizer use and fossil fuel burning. Natural processes in soils and the oceans also release N2O. • Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human activities. Natural processes are also a small source. Principal halocarbons include the chlorofluorocarbons (e.g., CFC-11 and CFC-12), which were used extensively as refrigeration agents and in other industrial processes before their presence in the atmosphere was found to cause stratospheric ozone depletion. The abundance of chlorofluorocarbon gases is decreasing as a result of international regulations designed to protect the ozone layer.

• Aerosols are small particles present in the atmosphere with widely varying size, concentration and chemical composition. Some aerosols are emitted directly into the atmosphere while others are formed from emitted compounds. Aerosols contain both naturally occurring compounds and those emitted as a result of human activities. Fossil fuel and biomass burning have increased aerosols containing sulphur compounds, organic Figure 1.16 The between CO2Human and global warming: compounds andrelation black carbon (soot). activities such The as reason CO2 levels need to be controlled. Target atmospheric CO2: (continued)

Where should humanity aim? Hansen,J. Sato,M. et all 2008.

100

Frequently Asked Questions

Already the effects have started to show up raising cause for alarm. The last decade and the century have evidently been the warmest in a long while now. (fig. 1.17) Glaciers are receding, sea levels are rising and freak weather phenomenon is evidently on the rise.3 The IPCC concludes that during this century “it is very likely that hot extremes , heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more frequent ” and that “it is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense , with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation .” 1

In UK four of the top five wettest years have occurred since 2000, and 2012 was the year with both extremes. It started with a drought and ended with floods in the country. BBC, January 05, 2012 1. IPCC 2007 2. Hansen 2008 3. UNEP 2007

Figure 1.17 The Global mean temperatre has been rising through the years, according to the IPCC.

FAQ 3.1, Figure 1. (Top) Annual global mean observed temperatures1 (black dots) along with simple fits to the data. The left hand axis shows anomalies relative to the 1961 to 1990 average and the right hand axis shows the estimated actual temperature (°C). Linear trend fits to the last 25 (yellow), 50 (orange), 100 (purple) and 150 years (red) are shown, and correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906 to 2005, and 1856 to 2005, respectively. Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated warming. The blue curve is a smoothed depiction to capture the decadal variations. To give an idea of whether the fluctuations are meaningful, decadal 5% to 95% (light blue) error ranges about that line are given (accordingly, annual values do exceed those limits). Results from climate models driven by estimated radiative forcings for the 20th century (Chapter 9) suggest that there was little change prior to about 1915, and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th-century change was contributed by naturally occurring influences including solar radiation changes, volcanism and natural variability. From about 1940 to 1970 the increasing industrialisation following World War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling, and increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed warming after the mid-1970s. (Bottom) Patterns of linear global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface (left), and for the troposphere (right) from the surface to about 10 km altitude, from satellite records. Grey areas indicate incomplete data. Note the more spatially uniform warming in the satellite tropospheric record while the surface temperature changes more clearly relate to land and ocean. 1

From the HadCRUT3 data set.

104

TIME BEFORE WE BREAK OUR ‘CARBON BUDGET’

13 YEARS

average yearly emissions increase: 3%

GLOBAL WARMING IF RELEASED

0.8°C

1.4°F SCENARIO

happened

SEA LEVEL RISE BY 2100

1.5°C

2.7°F

inevitable

2°C

3.6°F

“safe” limit

3-4°C

5-6°C

5.4-7.2°F

9-10.8°F

tipping point

nightmare relative to 1990 sea level

0.85M

1.04M

1.24M

1.43M

DROWNING CITIES

knee-high flooding

Amsterdam

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

New York

Bangkok

CORAL acidic 30% more

ARCTIC SEA ICE ANNUAL REDUCTION

stops growing

15%

dissolves

30%

acidic 150% more

dead

45-60%

increasing global heat waves

% MORE HEAVY RAIN OVER LAND

every Euro summer a heatwave

Italy, Spain, Greece deserts

oceans become more acidic as they absorb CO2

75%

HEAT

CORN & WHEAT YIELDS

over pre-industrial average temperature

unknown

some inland temperatures will reach +10°C (+18°F)

unknown

US & Africa wheat Indian corn

-10%

-20%

-30-40%

13%

20-26%

35-42%

+7.5%

+15%

+22.5-30%

+37.5-45%

HURRICANE DESTRUCTIVENESS

SPECIES AT RISK OF EXTINCTION

30%

REALLY SCARY THINGS

Greenland ice sheet starts to disintegrate. Will take 50,000 years to melt but will raise sea levels by 6m.

40% Huge amounts of CO2 & methane released by melting permafrost in Siberia and Arctic.

LAST TIME CO2 LEVELS WERE THIS HIGH

15,000,000 YEARS AGO

unknown

Ocean floor methane released causing runaway Figure 1.18 What are the consequences of global warming? climate change. source: Guardian, UK Possibility of mass extinction.

MINIMUM TIME NEEDED TO RE-ABSORB ALL THIS CO2 FROM ATMOSPHERE

300,000 YEARS

see data for details

informationisbeautiful.net / data & sources: bit.ly/CO2gigatons

IN SUMMARY We simply donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have an alternative but to switch to renewable energies, motivation may be just to prove environmental credentials but there is simply no choice simply because fossil fuels will eventually run out. The sooner we realise this the more prepared we can be. Since human population is getting concentrated in cities it is the best place to target the demands there. The current developing countries are the places where the most growth is forecast both in terms of population and in terms of the growth in terms of resources usage. This growth is unsustainable for the Earth in the present form and a solution needs to be there to reduce Â the reliance on fossil fuels and consequently the ecological footprint. The focus has to be two pronged, to shift the energy sources from fossil fuels and secondly to see that the expanding cities in the developing world are built on more sustainable models. It seems clear that while one focus of attention should be on shifting energy production from fossil fuels to sustainable sources, an equally important one is where the increase in demand will take place: in the rapidly expanding urban centres of the developing nations. 1 The fossil fuel dependence is basically an urban design issue. With more than 75% of energy usage there our current cities design encourages this lifestyle. Having buildings forced to use energy to make them comfortable and dependency on personal transport systems relying on fossil fuels the norm is what the cities are replicating. Solutions in terms of better cities which can help to reduce consumption and which can run on alternatives to fossil fuels will be the ideal way to house the increasing populations in the cities. 16

the cities in the developing countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa will double in size in the next forty years to cater for 2.7 billion more people. Such urban places equalling in size all the currently existing cities put together - present a unique opportunity to consider the energy factor when planning and building the urban spaces.1

1. Pareto 2008

PART 2: IDEA OF A CITY INDEPENDENT OF FOSSIL FUELS Can cities be the solution to the problems they are the creators of? What are the alternatives to Fossil Fuels? Options beyond the conventional cities of today. Cities are in crisis. The global urban population is growing at the rate of a million people every week. The characteristic response to this has been the hydra of mega cities and sprawl, forms that have already fallen off the edge of apraxia, dysfunctional both physically and socially. A+D, July August 2012, Scarcity- Architecture in an age of depleting resources.

2. RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL

The current global energy consumption is about 500 EJ per year with the power requirement of about 15.5 TW at any given moment (including oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric)2. Studies for various cities, regions and countries have shown the potential of renewable energies and how the fossil fuels could be replaced. 3 Numerous studies have shown that it is a realistic possibility to have the fossil fuels replaced with renewable sources of energy. The ecofys report commissioned by WWF outlines how by 2050 we could completely make a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies for the whole world. 4 Similar other studies for countries and regions have shown the potential of renewbale energies to replace fossil fuels. 3

1. IEA 2009 2. Ferry and Monoian 2012 3. Mackay 2008 4. Singer 2010 5. Grubler 2012

“Energy derived from the sun,the wind, the Earth’s heat, water and the sea has the potential to meet the world’s electricity needs many times over, even allowing for fluctuations in supply and demand.” WWF 2010

INTRODUCTION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

The global potential of various renewable energies is immense and the realisable potential is substantial too with todays available and proven technologies.4 They could possibly offer a solution to the impeding crisis brought on by the reliance on fossil fuels. The use of biomass, Figure 2.1 Study by Ecofys shows how it may be feasible to geothermal and solar thermal systems for heating and cooling has replace all fossil fuel with renewable sources by 2050. 4 considerable potential for increasing the share of renewable energy in source: WWF 2010 developing countries. 5 100 PER CENT RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 Figure 1 Evolution of energy supply in the Energy Scenario, showing the key developments. Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010.

WWF has a vision of a world that is powered by 100 per cent renewable energy sources by the middle of this century. Unless we make this transition, the world is most unlikely to avoid predicted escalating impacts of climate change. But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy supplies for everyone on the planet by 2050? WWF called upon the expertise of respected energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer to this question. In response, Ecofys has produced a bold and ambitious scenario which demonstrates that it is technically possible to achieve almost 100 per cent renewable energy sources within the next four decades. The ambitious outcomes of this scenario, along with all of the assumptions, opportunities, detailed data and sources, are presented as Part 2 of this report.

The Ecofys scenario raises a number of significant issues and challenges. The Energy Report investigates the most critically important political, economic, environmental and social choices and challenges – and encourages their further debate. How are we going to provide for all of the world’s future needs, on energy, food, fibre, water and others, without running into such huge issues as: conflicting demands on land/water availability and use; rising, and in some cases, unsustainable consumption of commodities; nuclear waste; and regionally appropriate and adequate energy mixes?

The world needs to seriously consider what will be required to transition to a sustainable energy future, and to find solutions to the dilemmas raised in this report. Answering these challenges - the solutions to the energy needs of current and future generations – is one of the most important, challenging and urgent political tasks ahead.

WWF The Energy Report Page 11

Figure 2.2 Concept for a renewable energy grid by OMA

Final Energy (EJ/a)

Fossil fuels are today seem to be indispensable because of the their requirement as a primary energy source. Yet there are alternatives which could replace them with cleaner alternatives. Renewable energies which as per the definition of IEA 1 are energies derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly. This deﬁnition applies to a wide range of energy sources derived directly or indirectly from the sun including solar, hydro, wind, wave, biomass and ambient heat, but also includes nonpolar sources such as geothermal, tidal and ocean currents.

2.11 SOLAR

Enough Sunlight falls on the earth in one hour to power it for the whole year. 4

Solar energy falling on the earth is one of the easiest to tap and can be used with todays technology to capture it for heat generation and electricity production. Theoretically all global energy requirement can be met by just capturing the direct solar energy falling on Earth.2 Realistically harnessing the solar energy has become more practical and at costs now which are comparable to fossil fuel based plants in areas like the Mediterranean regions of Spain which receive adequate sunlight throughout the year. (reported in Forbes energy 2013, Solar Parity comes to Spain)

Figure 2.3a

Potential of Solar power for electricity and heat production.

Figure 2.4 Concentration solar power projects in the sunny parts of Spain have brought the cost of solar power comparable to the cost as from fossil fuels.

2.12 WIND According to the European Wind Energy Association: “the total MIX THE ENERGY the energy sources available wind resources worldwide are estimated at 53Introducing 000 TWh per of the future year.” 3 Global wind installations today meet 2.5% of the electricity demand and currently growing at 25% per annum. Wind can be a little unpredictable but in places with a proven potential they are being successfully incorporated within the parameters of a stable energy source.

Global potential of wind power

At the moment, more than 80 per cent of our global energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal). The remainder comes from nuclear and renewable energy sources, mainly hydropower, and traditional biomass fuels such as charcoal, which are often used inefficiently and unsustainably. Under the Ecofys scenario, fossil fuels, nuclear power and traditional biomass are almost entirely phased-out by 2050, to be replaced with a more varied mixture of renewable energy sources.

The Ecofys scenario takes into account each resource’s overall potential, current growth rates, selected sustainability criteria, and other constraints and opportunities such as variability of wind and solar sources. Technological breakthroughs, market forces and geographic location will all influence the ways in which renewable energies are developed and deployed, so the final energy breakdown could well look very different - while still based on 100 per cent sustainable renewables.

Harnessing wind has a realisable potential to meet a quarter of the world’s electricity needs by 2050 if current growth rates continue – requiring an additional 1,000,000 onshore and 100,000 offshore turbines. 2

ENERGY OF The costs of onshore and offshore wind power have declined FUTURE sharply in recent years through mass deployment, theTHEuse of larger components, and more sophisticated controls on wind turbines. The best onshore sites are already cost competitive with fossil fuel technologies of today. 5 WWF The Energy Report Page 28

Global potential of water power

Figure 2.3b

The global realisable potential of wind power that could be practically harnessed, offshore and onshore.

2.13 GEOTHERMAL Heat contained in or discharged from within the Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s crust, mainly by heat conduction, but also in the form of hot water or steam at particular locations. It is exploited at suitable sites for electricity generation after transformation, or directly as heat for geothermal heat pumps, or to create steam to run steam turbines to generate electricity. Iceland already gets a quarter of its electricity and almost all of its THEgeothermal ENERGY MIX heating from geothermal sources. In the Philippines, 1 the energy sources plants generate almost a fifth of total electricity. Introducing of the future At the for moment, more than 80 per cent The costs of high-temperature geothermal resources power of our global energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal). The remainder comes fromGeothermal nuclear and renewable generation have dropped substantially since the 1970s. is energy sources, mainly hydropower, and biomass fuels such as charcoal, a site-specifc resource that can only be accessed intraditional certain parts which are often used inefficientlyof and the unsustainably. Under the Ecofys scenario, fossil fuels, nuclear power and traditional world for power generation. Lower-temperature geothermal resources biomass are almost entirely phased-out by 2050, to be replaced with a more varied mixtureheat of renewable energy sources. for direct uses like district heating and ground-source pumps are 2 The Ecofys scenario takes into account each resourceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s overall potential, current growth more widespread. rates, selected sustainability criteria, and 2.14 OCEAN POWER

other constraints and opportunities such as variability of wind and solar sources. Technological breakthroughs, market forces and geographic location will all influence the ways in which renewable energies are developed and deployed, so the final energy breakdown could well look very different - while still based on 100 per cent sustainable renewables.

Global potential of wind power

Figure 2.3c

The global realisable potential of Geothermal energy for heat and electricity production.

Global potential of water power

The movement of water in the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oceans creates a vast store of kinetic energy. This energy can be harnessed to generate electricity and has the potential of providing a substantial amount of new renewable energy around the world. ENERGY OF

THE FUTURE

Ocean power, unlike Solar and wind energy, is generally reliable and predictable as tides are concurrent and occur within a regular interval.

WWF The Energy Report Page 28

2.15 BIOMASS

Figure 2.3d Most of the large hydro power potential has already been exploited. There is a huge potential from wave and tidal power although todays technology allows only a small potential to be exploited.

Biomass is a renewable resource as it is possible to grow new plants to replace the ones used. Today more than 2.7 billion people are dependent on traditional bio energy (mainly from wood, crop residues and animal dung) as their main source of cooking and heating fuel. 5 Currently developing countries rely on biomass as the major energy source. It is more often seen as an unworthy one and development means to shift to options like fossil fuels. But as research has shown it is a big source and potential of this renewable source is immense to take care of the energy needs of an urban region as well. Liquid biofuels currently meet around 2% of the global road transport energy demand and there is further potential from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks.5 Biomass is perceived to be a inferior energy source because of the end energy use currently used in developing countries is in primitive energy delivery systems. The stoves and heating systems are seen as a poor alternative to the modern ones relying on gas or electricity. But options today exist to convert the biomass into a better delivery mode 1. Singer 2010 with options such as gasification or simply better and updated stoves. 2. Ferry and Monoian 2012 3. Mackay, 2008 The combustion of biomass for power generation is a well-proven 4. Newman and Jennings 2008 technology. It is commercially attractive where quality fuel is available 5. Grubler 2012 6. Kiplagat et all 2011 and affordable. 6

In the long run, the limiting factor will not be cost, but rather the challenge of integrating the Renewable Energies resource into the power grid. 2 21

3. URBAN DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES Cities consume over two‐thirds of the world’s energy and account for more than 70% of global CO2 emissions, the most prevalent of the greenhouse gases.1 At the same time urban densities in the cities offer many opportunities to reduce this because facilities can be better shared. So it is imperative to look at the solution to the fossil fuel problem at an urban level where most of the consumption can be tackled. With such a large percentage of energy being consumed there , in a way the fossil fuel crisis is the crisis of the cities.

Between 1850 and 2005, overall energy production and use grew more than 50-fold—from a global total of approximately 0.2 billion toe to 11.4 billion toe.2 Most of this occurred in industrialized societies, which had come to rely heavily on the ready availability of energy.

The modern city could be described as ‘Petropolis’: all its key functions – production, consumption and transport – are powered by massive injections of petroleum and other fossil fuels.3 With the global population approaching nine billion and 68 per cent of people expected to be living in urbanised areas by 2050, the way cities develop in the future is set to be critical when it comes to setting and meeting international emission reduction targets. After the free reign of the suburbia and modernistic movement of urban planning which fashioned cities like Brasilia, Milton Keynes and Chandigarh on the false hope of a secure and cheap fossil fuel, the challenge of urbanisation has sparked movements to address the issues of environment and quality of urban lifestyle. In resilience thinking the more sustainable city the more it will be able to cope with reductions in resources that are used to make the city work.2 Some have been reduced to mere marketing exercises rather than a genuine movement they advocated or strived to achieve. 3.1 NEW URBANISM The Movement promoting walkable neighbourhoods, arose in the 1980s in the United States. It advocated the mixed use developments to make functional urban neighbourhoods. It has gradually informed many aspects of real estate development and urban planning. It has its origins on the urban design standards that were prominent until the rise of the automobile in the middle of the century. It encompasses principles such as traditional neighbourhood design, and transit-oriented development. 4 3.2 SUSTAINABLE URBANISM It covers a little broader term in whole and aims to look at application of sustainability and resilient principles to the design, planning, and operation of cities. It is about increasing the quality of life by bringing more resources within a short distance and also increasing the quality of products that are offered. 4 22

Figure 2.5 Evolution of cities on the basis of the energy sources. a. Biomass fuelled compact cities, b. Coal and Steam powered. c. Oil powered suburban sprawl.

3.3 ECO CITIES Started off as a means to make the cities in sync with the environment. It covers a very broad and vague definition of “ecocity” which is conditional upon a healthy relationship of the city’s parts and functions, similar to the relationship of organs in living complex organism. There is no set criteria to determine what constitutes and ecocity as there are no measurable quantities. A lot of existing cities and quite a few in China are marketed as being ecocities. 5 3.4 ONE PLANET CONCEPT The WWF has proposed the one planet concept based on the ecological footprint model. It aims to restrict the footprint of an individual to a sustainable one which can be restricted to within the natural limits of the planet. The building projects based on this concept aim to reduce consumption and waste which can be recycled so as not to put any more stress on the resources of the Earth. 6 3.5 2000 W SOCIETY The 2000 W society concept developed by the ETH in Switzerland proposes to limit the consumption of total primary energy of a first world citizen to 2000W without lowering the standard of living. This vision is being put to trial in a number of swiss cities and regions. The pilot project was the Basel 2000W society and later Zurich and Geneva are in the framework of this program as well. Researchers believe that by measures like improving the building stock to be made more energy efficient, promoting public transport, sourcing energy from renewable sources, this goal is achievable for a swiss society. 7

Figure 2.6 The current emissions of the swiss society and the projections as per the 2000W concept.

3.6 CARBON NEUTRAL CITIES The aim of having a zero carbon footprint is the idea behind achieving carbon neutrality in a city. The way cities are going about doing it is different in most cities. The master plan drawn out relies on some component of renewable energies and the last bit of carbon emission which cannot be catered to in the city is either offset in carbon sinks or bought off by trading carbon credits. Fig. 25 City-wide emissions reductions targets, by city (% planned reduction).

Amsterdam Atlanta Austin Berlin Bogotá Buenos Aires Changwon Chicago Copenhagen Denver Durban

1. Lehmann 2012 2. Mackay 2008 3. Gerardet 2008 4. Farr 2007 5. Haas 2012 6. Singer 2010 7. Berger 2011

40% 20% 70% 40% 16% 30% 30% 80% 100% 25% 24.5%

Hamburg Helsinki Jakarta Kaohsiung Greater London Madrid G. Manchester Melbourne Miami Moscow New York Oristano Paris Philadelphia Portland Riga Rio de Janeiro Rome San Diego Seattle Stockholm Sydney Taipei Tokyo Toronto Vancouver Warsaw Yokohama

80% 39% 30% 80% 60% 20% 48% 100% 25% 20.7% 30% 20% 25% 20% 80% 20% 20% 20% 80% 100% 44% 70% 60% 25% 80% 33% 20% 50%

Figure 2.8 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Carbon reduction targets for cities subscribed and reporting to the C40 group.

2050

Range of reduction target 10%

50%

100%

Shaded on scale by percent. Note: Where cities report multiple targets, the longest term target is shown.

40: Management - Emissions Reduction and Adaptation

4. RENEWABLE CITIES: IDEA OF AN URBANISM INDEPENDENT OF FOSSIL FUELS Can cities run without fossil fuels, can they function only with renewable energies? The idea has been put forward by Peter Droege in The Renewable City- a comprehensive guide to an urban revolution, 1 and comprehensively shown in his edited book 100% RENEWABLE with actual examples of regions which are doing that. 3 Research studies for many cities has shown how this aim could be feasible to be achieved. The renewable city concept propose a quantifiable way to determine the sustainability of the cities. The initiatives mentioned earlier have some measurable matrix which is more subjective rather than quantitative. Renewable cities provides a simple one point initiative to determine the green credentials of the city.

Figure 2.9 Concept of the renewable city as proposed by Peter Droege with a workable method to achieve it.

• Carbon Of setting • Emissions Trading

Carbon Neutral City

EXISTING CITIES

Renewable City

Different Paths To Sustainability

Figure 2.10 The path to achieve sustainability . Renewable Cities are a subset of Carbon Neutral cities.

Cities like Växjö (Sweden) are the trendsetters which have decided of the aim to be fossil fuel free as early as 1996. Other cities are following suit as well and some examples of German cities which are aiming to achieve this include Wolfhagen aiming to be fossil fuel free by 2015, Zukunftskreis Steinfurt by 2050 Saerbeck by 2030. 2 The approach is to reduce the demand of the energy so that it could be supplied with the renewable sources within the region. The possibilities to achieve this exist in most urban environments in the developed cities which were planned on the abundant fossil fuel premise. Relevant studies confirm that a demand reduction and efficiency gain of at least 50 per cent- and especially wasteful examples, often 80 or even 90 per cent- across all sectors is technically achievable and an essential base on which to found a renewable future.3

Figure 2.11 Not just Renewable cities but the requirement is for 100% Renewable cities, further exploration of the idea of Renewable cities in the edited book by Peter Droege.

The target is to look for complete replacement of fossil fuels in all operations of the city. This is a substantial aim to achieve considering cities are so reliant on fossil fuels. In this world steeped in expensive and toxic hydrocarbon fuels and products it does not seem easy for anyone but isolated indigenous tribes to live up to this ideal. Nevertheless, the aim to rely on the abundant and largely free sources of the sun is cleaner and it is necessary.1 This idea has been explored for urban regions, small cities and city districts in research studies. In denser cities it becomes imperative to look beyond the city limits for renewable sources considering the lower energy density achievable from them, but in smaller cities and larger urban regions it is more easy to achieve the target to replace fossil fuels for energy supply.

'100 percent renewable' means an entirely renewable power base for the global economy across the life cycle of energy flows, embodied, operational, transport or stationary.(Droege 2009) 24

Figure 2.12 Various studies have calculated and proposed solutions to shift to renewable energies. The figure lists the achievable potential from within the city region explored with these studies. It is much easier to achieve the targets for heat and electricity with smaller and less dense cities as compared to denser and bigger ones. Bigger the circle more the population density.

PROPOSAL FOR RENEWABLE URBAN REGIONS The Research project â&#x20AC;&#x153;Erneuerbares Liechtensteinâ&#x20AC;?4 between 2009 and 2011 under the direction of Prof. Peter Droege and the government of Liechtenstein searched for possible future scenarios regarding the energy autonomy of the principality of Liechtenstein. This was looked at by maximising energy efficiency, and looking at all energy generation options feasible in the urban region of Liechtenstein exploring facade for solar thermal or photovoltaics, and the installation of infrastructures for harnessing wind power, hydro power, deep geothermal heating and biomass for heating and electricity. The result showed that the aim could be achieved in around 60 years. The idea was to look at Liechtenstein in isolation supplying its own energy needs for all aspects of running it as an independent region.

Figure 2.12 The Renewable Liechtenstein project proposed for replacing the fossil fuel fuel dependence in 60 years time.

1. Droege 2006 2. Gerardet 2008 3. Droege 2009 4. Radzi and Droege 2013

Figure 2.13 The proposal suggests to replace the energy demand for heating by a variety of sources from the region itself including geothermal , biomass, biogas and some proportion from solar.

PROPOSAL CITY LEVEL City level based plans have successfully shown it is possible to achieve energy autonomy via renewable from within the region for smaller less dense cities. As the studies mentioned below for the cities of Basel, Switzerland and Sonderhausen, Germany have shown. Our studies have shown that it is possible to both assess the long-term energy demands for urban households and businesses as well as the potential of urban spaces to produce renewable energy (Genske 2009). For larger cities although the densities help in sharing of infrastructure and reducing mobility requirements but the lower energy density of renewable sources makes it a challenge to achieve autonomy, it can be stated that for bigger cities energy autarky cannot be achieved as easily as for small cities. Nevertheless, in most cases this appears to be still possible (Genske 2009).

Figure 2.14 Renewable proposal for the City of Sonderhausen in Germany which suggests the potential to completely replace current energy demand with renewable energy sources.

8a) Strombedarf

Abbildung 8

2010: 1362 GWhEnd 2050: 1808 GWhEnd im Referenzszenario

2010: 1362 GWhEnd

2050: 2050: 974 1808 GWhEnd GWhEnd im im 2000W-Szenario Referenzszenario

<1% <1% <1%

14%

19%

Strom- und Wärmebed sowie Energiemix: heut und 2050 im Referenzs nario und im 2000-Wat Szenario: a) Strombedarf und Strommix b) Wärmebedarf und Wärmemix.

<1% <1% <1%

11% <1% 4% <1%

4% <1%

<1%

43% 26%

81%

20%

82%

Photovoltaik Wasserkraft Biomasse Kehricht Geothermie Import

8b) Wärmebedarf

2010: 3394 GWhEnd

2010: 2050:3394 2889 GWhEnd GWhEnd im Referenzszenario

Figure 2.15 Basel, Switzerland, Electricity demand current and projected with renewbale generation sources within the 2050: 2889 2050: 2325 GWhEnd im GWhEnd im city. Referenzszenario 2000W-Szenario

0.2% 0% 0.1%

82%

2% 0.3%

0.2% 0% 2% 0.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6%

0.8% 2.0%

2.3% 0.6% 0.6%

0.8% 2.0% 6.8%

3.4%

2.9% 1.0% 4.1%

81.8%

97.3%

Sonnenkollektoren Biomasse Kehricht Wärmepumpen Geothermie Importierte Energieträger

Figure 2.16 Basel, Renewable Electricity 93.7% Switzerland, 97.3% generation potential mapped for future scenario.

93.7%

Sonnenkollektoren Biomasse Kehricht Wärmepumpen Geothermie Importierte Energieträger

Nachhaltige Energiezukun

CITY DISTRICT LEVEL Districts within cities can become fossil fuel free and as the proposal of IBA Hamburg currently being implemented may eventually show. The river island of Elbe in Hamburg is the site of the IBA-Hamburg “Internationale Bauausstellung” exposition or International Building Exhibition. The proposal of a renewable city has shown how it could be made autonomous in terms of renewable energy supply. The ENERGY ATLAS demonstrates that it will be possible to meet the electricity requirements of the buildings on the Elbe Islands by 2025, and that by 2050 almost all of their heating requirement will be covered by renewable and locally produced energy. (IBA Hamburg 2012) Reducing energy demand becomes critical in the first place and the buildings as part of IBA Hamburg are the most energy efficient possible which helps in the cause to achieve the target of self sufficiency in renewable supplies. In 2007, the IBA’s first year, the buildings in its area had an annual heat requirement of 550 gigawatt hours and a total electricity requirement of 143 gigawatt hours. 1 From a meagre one per cent of the thermal requirement and approximately ten per cent of the demand for electricity which is currently being met with renewable energy, the target is to achieve it all completely with renewable sources within the island. The heating demand is being explored to be completely met with renewable source of geothermal.

Figure 2.17

IBA Hamburg, proposal for 100% renewable district in the city of Hamburg

Road map to renewable Wilhelmsburg (excellence scenario)

100% renewable electricity production

100% limit

50% limit

2010

2013 IBA Hamburg

2007

2020

2025

2030

Climate-friendly Houses on Haulander Weg Building phase 2 Solar concept Kirchdorf-Süd

2050

2040

Climate-friendly Houses on Haulander Weg Building phase 1

electricity – self-sufficiency coverage in renew. energy [%] CO2-reduction[%] heat – self-sufficiency coverage in renew. energy [%]

River Elbe heat for Veddel Urban biogas project Additional wind power units Harburger Schloßinsel New building of the State Ministry for Urban Development and the Environment Deep Geothermal Energy Wilhelmsburg I IBA campaign ”Prima Klima-Anlage“ Wilhelmsburg Central Construction phase I Energy Bunker

Wilhelmsburg Central Construction phase II

Wilhelmsburg Central Construction phase III

Local Heating Network New Hamburg Terraces Open House Global Neighbourhood (Weltquartier) Energy Hill Georgswerder

Car park roofing Stillhorn (Photovoltaic) Repowering wind power units

VELUX Model home 2020 IBA DOCK

Start of electricity generation from organic methane production

Figure 2.18 Potentials mapped within the district to meet 100% of the energy demands for electricity production and meeting most of the heating demand for the Wilhsburg District by 2050.

By 2025 the Elbe Islands and Harburger Binnenhafen will already

RENEWABLE CITIES OF TODAY Whereas the previous examples mentioned studies to turn the cities to run with only renewable energies some cities and regions already as of today have achieved the target for full self sufficiency in terms of renewable energy to fulfil most requirements. These cities have achieved the target by substituting the requirement for heating and electricity by alternate renewable sources to fossil fuels. A few examples have been listed from amongst several more which are in the process to achieve the aim of being fossil fuel free regions. (Radzi 2009)

VÄXJÖ “Fossil Fuel Free Växjö” is the motto of the Swedish town of Växjo, which started its campaign to go fossil fuel free in 1996 by engineering a partnership with local firms, industries and transport companies to achieve this goal. To follow the commitment of stop using fossil fuels and reduce CO2 emissions in heating, energy, transport, businesses and homes, rigorous planning and close monitoring of all CO2 emissions has been undertaken. District heating network has been extended to run on biomass and they have been particularly successful in reducing their reliance on fossil fuels.

Country: Sweden Population: 80,000 Area: 1,925 sq. km.

Figure 2.19 Biomass based power plant provide for the greatest proportion of renewable energy in Växjö.

51% of its energy comes from sources such as biomass, hydro power, geothermal and solar energy. In little over a decade, emissions have been reduced by 24% per person to 3.5 tons of CO2 annually - well below the European (8 CO2 t/a) and world (4 CO2t/a) averages. To achieve the impressive results, the municipality has rigorously planned and closely measured all CO2 emissions in three categories - heating, electricity and transport. One of the main reasons for Växjö's progress is the massive expansion of its district heating system along side greater use of biomass. As a result, nearly 88% of heating came from renewable energy sources in 2005 (858 GWh). The largest share came from biomass, with some use of peat, oil and geothermal energy. 1 SAMSOE

Country: Denmark Area: 114 km2 Population: 4.003 (2009) A role model in self-sufficiency in just eight years, a broad collaboration on Samsoe has managed to convert the island’s energy production from oil and coal to renewable energy. Today, all electricity on the island comes from 11 wind turbines on land and 70% of the heat supply comes from four sustainable district heating plants. A large amount of small private systems also contribute to the production of Figure 2.20 renewable energy. 2 Samsoe has chosen to compensate for energy used in transport by building 10 offshore wind turbines. Annually, they send more electricity to the mainland than the island uses for transport - including oil to the island‘s three ferries. An Energy Academy is also planning the development of the energy efficient house “Passive house 10“. Alongside this, the Academy plans to have electric cars as the transport used to reach the houses. 3 28

11 Wind turbines provide all the electricity needed to power the island of Samsoe.

GÜESSING, AUSTRIA

Country: Austria Area: 49.31 km2 Population: 27,000

Güssing in Austria used to be a poor rural town in a far off part of Austria. In 1990, experts developed a model that asked for complete abandonment of fossil energy. Its objective was to supply the town of Güssing (and subsequently the whole district) with renewable energy, from locally available sources. 3 It reached renewable energy self-sufficiency in 2001 managing to get all its energy from renewable sources and in turn becoming a role model municipality. The result of energy optimization of all buildings in the town centre alone brought a reduction of expenditure on energy by almost 50 %. The application include a successful installation of a plant producing bio-diesel from rape oil. Two small-scale biomass district heating systems were built to heat parts of Güssing. Finally, a district heating system based on wood as fuel was constructed to supply the whole town of Güssing. 4

Figure 2.21 Bio methane storage facility in Guessing, Austria.

VAUBAN, FREIBURG Country: Germany Area:3.8km2 Population: 5,000 Vauban District in Freiburg,Germany. A development of five thousand on a former military base is one of the earliest successful examples to have shifted entirely on to renewable energy generation to power its needs. With `zero energy` houses having solar PV panels and wood chip CHP plant ensures that this district in Freiburg today produces more energy than it actually needs with the rest being sold off to the grid. Car ownership is discouraged with no dedicated parking spots and tramline connects the suburb to the city, this has meant that 35% of residents have chosen to live without cars. 5

Figure 2.22 Energy Plus houses produce more energy than is required for their functioning in Vauban, Freiburg.

1. Dac.dk 2012 2. Dac.dk 2013 3. Gerardet 2008 4. Radzi 2009 5. IEA 2009

PART 3: CHALLENGES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Research Question.

Renewable city concept proposes to power the city with the renewable energies from within the region. But can the reality of developing countries with its own set of challenges be overcome to replicate the idea of replacing fossil fuels to power the cities? By doing a comparative analysis of the situation in developed and developing countries this chapter makes a case for proposing a different strategy to achieve the aim.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Cities in the developing world cannot have the same strategies and debates as cities in the developed worldâ&#x20AC;?. 30

Steffen Liehmann in his chapter Green Urbanism, formulating a series of holistic principles

Figure 3.1 The world bank classification of countries according to the income levels. The nations in the low and middle income countries get defined as developing countries.

Developing countries are in general countries which have not achieved a significant degree of industrialization relative to their populations, and which have, in most cases a medium to low standard of living. 1 There is no criteria to determine a developing country. There are set parameters to define a country as developed, so its presumed the countries which do not meet them are developing countries. Countries in western Europe, North America, Oceanic region including Japan and South Korea and the island cities of Singapore and Hong Kong are counted amongst developed nations. 2 There are significant challenges to implement a renewable energy future in developing countries as has been proposed currently for the developed regions. There are intrinsic differences between the strategies which may need to be followed based on these challenges.

6. URBANISATION LEVEL Developing countries today in contrast to the developed ones which are over 80 percent urbanised have a low urbanisation level with some African nations having it below 20%. India has its urbanisation level around 25% while China although having rapidly urbanized in the last decade still has its urbanisation level at about 35%. The average rate of urbanization in Europe is 73% and even higher: 80 per cent for the United Kingdom, 85 % for France and in the United States, it is 82 %. (Haas 2012) Urbanisation as has been previously mentioned is associated with the rising consumption levels. So while the developed regions have their urbanisation levels stabilized the consumption levels are falling while they are on a continuous trend upwards in developing countries. (UNhabitat 2010) The pace of urbanisation has been phenomenal as has been quoted, Urban growth rates are highest in the developing world, which absorbs an average of 5 million new urban residents every month and is responsible for 95 % of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s urban population growth. cited in UNDP, 2010

Figure 3.2 Developing countries are home to more than 80% of the worlds population.

The increase in energy demand is expected to remain almost stable in the developed nations, due to a slower economic development balanced by the use of more efficient equipment. On the contrary consumption should increase at an exponential rate in the developing countries. In the cities of Asia, Latin America and Africa, new businesses are continuously being created, generating employment, and millions of people are swapping their bicycles for cars and acquiring more fridges, TVs, air conditioners and all kinds of home appliances, as personal prosperity rises in line with national economic growth (IEA 2008).

Figure 3.3 POPULATION GROWTH LEVEL Urbanisation rate as well as population growth levels are very high, with population growth rate more than double of that in the developed nations.

Figure 3.4 The consumption of energy developing nations is less than one fifth in most cases. The per capita energy consumption is still low in developing countries when compared to developed countries, but with improved access to energy the per capita consumption will correspondingly increase (1).

6.2 ENERGY USAGE In the current situation in developing countries energy consumption per capita is very low. The CO2 emissions consequently are at the level at which the optimistic targets for carbon reductions of most cities in the developed are(fig. 2.16). If the current growth trajectory continues as predicted developing countries will account for 50% of primary energy use and 52% of energy-related CO2 emissions by the year 2030. The scope to reduce the consumption from these levels is a practically challenging task. While CO2 emissions in the developed countries is decreasing (6.9% in 2009 over 2008 levels) its increasing in developing countries (China 13.1% in 2009 over 2008 levels) (Un-Habitat 2010) This is rapidly changing and the furious pace of development has translated to rapid urbanisation and increased energy use. This has meant that cities are growing at a very rapid pace. This is a challenge for the task to make the cities renewable as not just the existing city infrastructure has to be updated but newer one has to be put in place to keep up with this pace of development. Speed of urbanisation often comes at the expense of quality, issues of performance and energy usage play little role in the design and construction process. Still the energy usage is comparatively small, Various studies show how it is common for low-income urban households in developing nations with electricity connections to use 20â&#x20AC;&#x201C;50 kWh/month . This is a small fraction of average household use in the United States (640â&#x20AC;&#x201C;1329 kWh/month depending on the region) or Europe (341 kWh/month). (Grubler 2012)

Figure 3.5 CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA. 1990-2009 The last few years has seen a dramatic rise in the CO2 emissions from developing countries as the development catches up but is still almost one third of the emissions of developed nations.

Figure 3.6 PRIMARY ENERGY USE (KgOE)1990 to 2009 Energy usage in developed nations has stabalised while it is growing rapidly in developing ones .

Energy consumption in the developed world has fallen in 4 out of the last 5 years. In the developing countries it increased 5.3% (BP Statistical Review 2012) 6.3 FUEL USAGE TRANSITION

Figure 3.7 SOLID FUEL USE A large percentage of the population in developing nations still relies on biomass as the primary energy source with African nations even in urban areas are more than 80% reliant on this. In comparison less than 5% of the people in developed world do that.

One of the compelling reasons the Carbon footprint of developing countries is low is because they still have not transitioned to using fossil fuels. In African Cities an overwhelming majority still use biomass as the primary source of energy. The fact that biomass is carbon neutral keeps the emissions per capita down. With development this changes as people shift to more convenient fossil fuel sources. This is an area which is different from the cities in developed countries where reliance on biomass is less than 5% and where used is more centralised in district heating systems as compared to decentralised usage in developing country cities. About 47% of the Kenya house-holds use charcoal, with 82% of the usage in the urban households, and 34% in the rural households. On average, the urban charcoal consumption in 2000 was found to be 156 and 152 kg per capita for rural and urban dwellers respectively. (Grubler 2012)

Figure 3.8 FOSSIL FUEL USAGE (as percentage of Total Primary Energy) 1990 to 2009 There has been a big spike in the usage of fossil fuels in the developing nations as income levels have risen.

7. DEVELOPMENT STATUS The most stark difference in developed and developing countries is the level of development.

7.1 POVERTY Income levels are vastly different from the developed nations, requiring a whole different strategy to pass on the benefits of renewable technologies which are right now more expensive than fossil fuels. The priority would most often come down to the current cost and this is where the advantage is lost. With the current levels of income in developing countries affording to spend for expensive renewable technologies like photo voltaic is a big difficulty. Alternative solutions to fund initiatives like co-operatives and pairing with micro credit as mentioned in chapter 5 are ideas which need to be exploited to overcome the challenge.

1 in 3 urban dwellers worldwide lives in a slum, rising to 6 in 10 in Africa.

Figure 3.9 GDP PER CAPITA The income levels are vastly different in developed and developing nations. About 5 times different even between the more developed upper middle income nations and the developed nations.

Un-habitat 2012

7.3 LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE There is serious lack of infrastructure, a large population of the world lacks access to a grid connection. (Global Network of Energy for Sustainable Development, 2007). For all developing countries taken together some 230 million urban residents lack access to modern fuels. According to IEA there is a tendency towards lower energy provision with over 300 million households in rural and urban areas of the developing world remaining without electricity services 1. The current gap in energy provision is predominant in Sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asian countries like India, whose population growth rates exceed electrification rates. In South Asia alone, 800 million people have no access to electricity 1. Fossil fuel based energy delivery systems for electricity require centralised power plants and the expense of connecting everybody to them is a big expense. Renewable based systems here are advantageous as they are more decentralised.

Figure 3.10 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY Large populations in developing cities still lack access to reliable electricty grid.

Expanding access to national electricity grids often constitutes the cheapest option for providing services. However, decentralized power, often based on renewable energy sources, is likely to be an important component of any significant expansion in electricity access, especially for rural and remote areas 2 Development literature focuses principally on provision of water and sufficient food, not on clean energy and electricity. Several hundred million urban dwellers in developing nations lack access to electricity and are unable to afford cleaner, safer fuels such as gas or LPG (or even kerosene). Most are in low-income nations in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In many such nations, more than half the urban population still rely on nonfossil fuel cooking fuels with obvious consequences for health problems (and large health burdens) and for the time needed to obtain fuels. In many nations, more than half the urban population also lacks access to electricity, even though urban population concentrations lower unit costs for providing electricity and gas (or LPG gas distribution). (Grubler 2012)

1. UNHABITAT 2010

8. STRUCTURE OF CITIES Each city is different in its overall structure but as a generalisation there is a marked difference in the cities in developing and developed nations with their homogeneity with respect to the social structures. The differences in respect to incomes and densities of cities is very different to the more harmonious cities of the north. The structure of cities presents a contrasting picture in developing countries.

7.4 CITY DENSITIES Renewable energies have a less power producing capacity per given area and the higher densities in developing cities makes it challenging to aim for energy independence as more people there are less energy per head is delivered. In European cities where the general urban energy consumption density is in the range of 10W/m2 whereas at best solar power generated there is 0.5w/m2.1 So to make renewable energies feasible within a dense urban setting densities are a big criteria.

Figure 3.11 DENSEST CITIES Of of the top 20 densest cities in the world, all of them are in the developing nations.

Modern mega slums like Kibera(Nairobi) and Cite`-Soleil (portau-prince) have achieved densities comparable to cattle feedlots: crowding more residents per acre into low-rise housing than there were in famous congested tenements districts such as lower East side in the 1900s or in contemporary high rise cities such as central Tokyo and Manhattan. Indeed, Asia`s largest slum Dharavi in Mumbai has a maximum density more than twice that of the nineteenth century New York and Bombay streets that Roy Lubove believed were the â&#x20AC;&#x153;most crowded spots on earthâ&#x20AC;? in late Victorian times. (Davis 2006)

Figure 3.12 URBAN BUILT UP DENSEST CITIES (persons per sq. Km) The population densities of cities is decreasing, but still the difference between developed and developing nations is vast with cities in developing nations almost 3 times as densely built up.

In developed countries the urban densities are low but the energy consumption rates are high. In developing nations the urban densities could possibly make the demand higher even though per capita consumption of energy is lower, balancing out the advantage. Renewable energy supply densities in urban areas are therefore maximum in the range of 0.2 to 0.5 W/m2 which are thus between 2 to 5 percent of characteristic urban energy demand densities of 10 W/m2 . (Grubler 2012)

1. Grubler 2012 2. IEA 2010 2. WCED 1987

POWER PER UNIT AREA OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES. Renewable Energies have thoer limitations on production . source: Mackay 2008

7.3 DISPARITY The pictures from space tell a very true story of the structure of the cities in developing nations. Where the rich have large areas to themselves the poor are confined to small ghettos. As Mark Davis describes in “Planet of Slums”, “Urban inequality in the third world is visible even from space”, and in respect to Mumbai, “Bombay according to some urban geographers, may be the extreme: while the rich have 90 percent of land and live in comfort with many open areas, the poor live crushed together on 10 percent of the land.” (Davis 2006) According to World Bank report, GINI coefficients are 10 points higher in Latin America than Asia; 17.5 points higher than OECD; and 20.4 points higher than Eastern Europe. (Davis 2006) The challenge is who to design the infrastructure for. If its designed for the poor, the rich will never use it, and the poor once they can afford to will try to get away from it as soon as possible. If on the other hand the rich are catered for the poor will most often be excluded altogether. Figure 3.13 Stark levels of difference in living. 1. Sao Paulo, Google Earth 2. Sao Paulo, Unknown source

Figure 3.14 GINI INDEX The index to measure disparities in income levels. Developing nations have a huge disparity in income levels.

9. POLICIES

Policies impact the direction cities take. As pointed out by David Mackay (Mackay 2008), “If the free market is allowed to build houses, we end up with houses that are poorly insulated. Modern houses are only more energy-efficient thanks to legislation.” The free market isn’t responsible for building roads, railways, dedicated bus lanes, car parks, or cycle paths. But road-building and the provision of car parks and cycle paths have a significant impact on people’s transport choices. Similarly, planning laws, which determine where homes and workplaces may be created and how densely houses may be packed into land have an overwhelming influence on people’s future travelling behaviour. If a new town is created that has no rail station, it is unlikely that the residents of that town will make long-distance journeys by rail. If housing and workplaces are more than a few miles apart, many people will feel that they have no choice but to drive to work.

Figure 3.15 RESTORATION OF RIVER BY REMOVAL OF HIGHWAY While developing cities are building new and bigger road network in the cities, developed ones are taking it out. 1. Seoul, before with expressway 2. Seoul , After River Restoration

9.1 FOSSIL FUEL BASED INFRASTRUCTURE Planning in developing cities is focussed on building more roads for cars to take on the increase in traffic. Beijing, Mumbai are celebrating and showcasing the shiny new road infrastructure being put in place in the cities.4 There are further plans to incorporate more new inner city highways while cities like San Francisco, Portland and Seoul are diminishing the inner city highways to create a better quality of life. 1

9.2 FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENT PLANNING At the same time as building roads, new mega power plants coming up to cater to the demands of the cities are based on Coal or gas. Renewable energies are considered just fringe experimental technologies, not to be relied upon. While In Europe no new coal based power plant has come up in the last 5 years, in the US no new planning permission has been granted for coal based plants. 2

Figure 3.16 CHINA‘s ENERGY GENERATION 1970-2005 The reliance on fossil fuels is increasing in most developing nations which are progressing.

9.3 FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES While few countries are self sufficient in fossil fuel production a majority rely on imports to meet the demand and then heavily subsidise them to make them accessible to the poor. Energy subsidies have a negative impact, reducing the price of fossil fuels makes implementing renewable energy based projects unattractive as the cost benefit is not there. 1.WWF Sweden 2012 To overcome cost barriers, carbon emissions and related externality 2. IEA 2010 costs need to be accounted for to raise the price of conventional fossil 3. Grubler 2012 4. Khanna 2012 fuels relative to renewables.3

Figure 3.1 WORLD OIL PRICES Fossil fuels are highly subsidised in developing nations, Data Source: World Bank, 2010

IN SUMMARY

In the developed nations both the urban network and city sizes are almost entirely static. The regional and urban infrastructure is fully developed, limiting the possibility of a significant increase in energy efficiency. Because the possibility of physical change is negligible, improvements are limited to increasing the operational efficiency of the transportation network (both inter and intra-urban) and introducing energy conservation strategies.

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

REDUCE energy usage in Built form

Energy usage in comparison is currently very low, focus on preventing this to go up. REDUCE car dependence, switch to sustainable forms of Most of the trips taken are by walking, cycling or in public transport. transport Improve transport infrastructure to encourage people to continue using it. REDUCE reliance on fossil fuels, move to cleaner forms of Heavy reliance on Biomass as primary fuel source in the lowest energy generation developed countries. Move to renewable sources from there. REDUCE and RECYCLE waste Waste generated is very less, further reduction may be difficult to achieve. Focus on management of recycling facilities

1. WWF Sweden

PART 4: PATH TO A RENEWABLE CITY Examples of ideas for Developing Countries APPLYING THE CONCEPT How to go about making a renewable city in a developing country. Case studies for appropriate solutions in developing countries. The present system of city design is unsustainable for the future as has been dealt with in the previous chapters. Â A shift to renewable cities is a pragmatic solution and can be achieved even in the developing countries. This chapter will look at the best case solutions for a city by drawing out conclusions from what is being achieved in the world dealing with specific topics of urban planning, energy efficient buildings, energy use in infrastructure, mobility solutions and lastly the renewable energy generation within the city regions. 40

The cities in developing countries as mentioned in the previous chapters are projected to double in size in the next forty fifty years to cater to 2.7 billion more people. Such places present a unique opportunity to consider the energy factor when planning and building urban spaces.1 The task to get to a fossil fuel free renewable city in a developing country would require an approach to look at the whole approach from master planning, individual buildings to be energy efficient, mobility solutions which require less energy than todays options in cities and finally all resources for renewable energies to be tapped to get the most within the city environment and incorporated within the built form. The objective is to create as described by Herbert Girardet,2 not just sustainable cities but rather regenerative regions. This is by not just becoming resource efficient and low carbon emitting but ones which can positively enhance the ecosystem services. The challenge of finding these solutions is explored in this chapter which looks at examples which could be implantable in the cities in developing countries overtaking the barriers described in the previous chapter.

Figure 4.1 The Path to Renwwable Cities. Graphic from www.futurepolicy.org

MASTER PLANNING BUILDINGS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLAR WIND GEOTHERMAL OCEAN ENERGY 1.Davis 2006 2. Gerardet 2010

BIOMASS

MOBILITY SOLUTIONS

10. MASTER PLAN Todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cities are designed for the fossil fuel era. Wide roads for car traffic, spaced out zones for living and working so people have to travel for each function and buildings designed to function only on a continuous supply of energy and the energy for use is centralised, imported from somewhere outside the city region. The urban planning will need to focus on intermixed zones for working living and recreation to enable more conveniently accessible proximity to each other. While the energy generation integrated with the masterplan will have to be focussed on decentralised energy generation to power the city. In the examples looked at below, The City of Masdar looks at the master plan as a whole entity. The one major solar power plant is the main energy centre besides the individual buildings and open spaces which supplement the energy generation. In Auroville in contrast the planning is more decentralised and each community has its own structure to plan for renewable energy incorporation. This is the same approach being adopted by Copenhagen to promote sustainable development at the district level. 2

MASDAR, UAE

Total Site Area: Projected resident population: Projected commuters:

700 hectares 40,000 50,000

The development planned by British architects Foster + Partners is designed to take into consideration the location of the area, its climate and cultural essence. The town is under construction 17 km east south east of Abu Dhabi. The vision is for Masdar to be 100% carbon free. The population density will be so high that public facilities can be close to each other, thus reducing the need for transportation. Energy generation on site: A 50MW Solar array already provides energy to the township. Large parts of the town will be covered by a massive solar cell roof which will produce energy for the city as well as providing shade.

Figure 4.2 MASDAR CITY Artist Impression- Aerial View of Proposed Master plan Source Masdar City, www.masdarcity.ae

Although Masdar will be adapted to the locality and the climate near Abu Dhabi, the principles applied in this 100% carbon neutral, zero waste city can be adapted to other parts of the world by targeting planning to the given conditions. (dak.dk 2012) AUROVILLE, India

Total Site Area: 2000 hectares Population : approx 3500 Projected resident population: 50,000

A township in, India, near Puducherry in South India. Started in 1968 to be an experimental township in sustainable living. It is designed by architect Roger Anger. The focus here is on sustainable living at the community level. The township has about 95 different communities living there each ranging from 3 to 85 families in each. All these individual communities have their own sustainability plan independently and some of them are already relying only on renewable energies to supply all their energy needs. (AVEC 2012) Figure 4.3 AUROVILLE VISION 2025 MASTERPLAN The individual communities in the township -95 in all- have the task in between themselves to plan for renewable solutions. Some communities are already reliant 100% on renewable energies for all needs.

Thisted, Denmark INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

The municipality‘s energy and heat consumption today is almost exclusively derived from renewable energy sources such as wind and sun, biogas, geothermal plants, incineration of biomass and residual heat from industry. The municipality uses less than 1 per cent fossil fuels in its production of energy and heat. The range of technologies incoporated and integrated together is the learning here. Heat from Straw Biofuel facility started in 2005 from straw which is produced locally. Energy from the biofuel facility is used to power the heat pumps at the geothermal heat plant. Waste Incineration The plant started out in 1977 as a waste incineration plant for the region. The high tech CHP plant has since then seen many technological improvements. 115,000 MWh heat which is used for district heating, constituting about of the annual consumption in Thisted. Geothermal Heat Plant As early as 1984 Thisted opened the first deep geothermal heat plant in Denmark. CSP – Concentrated Solar Power The system consists of 144 metres of parabolically shaped troughs covered with mirrors placed along two lines of 72 meters each. With a solar radiation area of approximately 830 m2 the system produces around 500 MWh pr. year. District Cooling The plants at Thisted produce more heat than is actually needed. To ensure the surplus heat is not wasted it is now being put to use as district cooling in downtown Thisted. Wind Power Over 220 wind turbines deliver more power than is actually consumed in the municipality. (dak.dk 2012) and (Droege and Razdi 2009)

Figure 4.4 BIOFUEL PLANT: Thisted gets its energy supply from different sources within the region.

SONGDO, South Korea

Situated 65 km West from Seoul, being built on 1500 acres of reclaimed land, this Free Economic Zone is meant to become a business hub between Japan, China and South Korea. its aim becoming the world‘s greenest business hub.

1. Mackay 2008 2. WWF Sweden 2012

Unlike the traditional CBDs, generally shaped by car-culture, Songdo will give priority to alternative modes of transportation through improved public transit and a 25 km network of bike lanes. As a disincentive to car-use, the city is designed in a way that city dwellers should not walk more than 12.5 minutes to reach shops, parks, or public transportation. 80% of the buildings are expected to be LEED-certified, and Songdo is actually the largest private LEED development site in the world. (WWF Sweden, 2012)

Figure 4.6 Songdo, the largest LEED development site in the world.

11. BUILDINGS Buildings today consume the most energy in cities. 1 To get the city on the target for renewable energies it is thus imperative to get this sector to be energy efficient. In developing as mentioned in the previous chapter the energy consumption figures are minimal as compared to the developed nations. The need to build half a billion new housing units, not including replacements, industrial and commercial buildings - a sizable investment in any count - will also present a major opportunity to implement energy-saving design concepts and building techniques to provide environmental comfort and reduce operational costs. 2 11.1 BUILDING STANDARDS While the market mechanisms will quickly change energy consumption habits and support a shift toward more energy efficient buildings, a massive effort still needs to be made in disseminating such design methods and building techniques, to ensure that the opportunity will not be missed by ignorance. The revision of building codes is a necessary step in this direction although insufficient by itself. 1 The tightening of building codes in Europe has spurred development of energy efficient buildings. Passive house standards and UK Ĺ&#x203A; Code for Sustainable homes Level 6, requiring carbon neutral homes from 2016 has been a major factor in this. Most countries today have their green building codes or are in the planning. 3 China has GBDL and GBL, India has GRIHA, but it needs to be raised up to a point to spur innovation, as of now they are more generic guidelines rather than norms for energy efficiency.

Figure 4.7 The BRE Code 6 Level Home at Watford. source: wikimedia commons

11.2 ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDINGS Building structure can play a significant part in avoiding energy wastage by stimulating environmentally efficient design. Except in a few places that have a year-round fair climate such as Brasilia or Nairobi in most cities there is need for heating in the winter or cooling in the summer, and sometimes both. 1

11.21 Traditional Building Precedent Buildings in the past were suited to their climate and two to three generations ago very few homes relied on air conditioning for comfort because buildings were designed to passively keep inhabitants at least moderately comfortable. 5 The traditional buildings are a product of centuries of evolution and suited best to the place. 11.22 Green Buildings In Developing Countries There is no dearth of ingenuity in building design and LEED certified buildings or other highly commendable ones are there through out the world. The essential is to make them the mainstream product and for this the example looked at of TZED housing is significant as these are houses which are costing not significantly more than the normal houses but have a energy efficient rating which makes them part of the mainstream. 6

Figure 4.8 Sanaa in Yemen, Traditional architecture has always been suited to the climate requiring no mechanical systems for comfort.

Figure 4.9 Replicating the traditional building characteristics in building design. Auroville, India

BANGALORE: TZED homes

A project developed by BCIL as a residential project consisting of environmentally sustainable and aesthetic homes for 95 families. The five-acre site comprises of 95 homes built on the principles of sustainable resources. The objective of BCIL was to build a campus for a self-reliant community, with autonomy in Water and Energy related issues and processes for Solid Waste and Wastewater management. The project has been designed to conserve natural resources and to have minimal impact on the environment. In these homes, built-in, customized environment-friendly, zero electricity refrigerators, fully controlled air conditioning based 100 % on fresh air inputs, and builtin energy efficient lights are among the features that help to bring down energy consumption in the home while ensuring comfort levels at a price difference less than 10% of the conventional homes.

Figure 4.10 TZED Housing , Bangalore. The cost difference in these ecologically designed houses and conventional ones there is in the range of 5-10%. Similar in costs comparison to buildings in the developed nations with buildings built to green standards costing about 10% more than standard.

11.23 Buildings As Energy Source

1. Lehmann 2012 2. Pareto 2008 4. WWF Sweden 2012 3. ICLEI 2009 5. Haas 2012 6. ArchiDeve 2012

Increasingly buildings can be used to actually generate more energy than they consume making them sources of energy rather than mere consumers. For this the grid needs to be compatible or some system of energy storage may be needed to balance the periods of demand and supply but there are examples to show that buildings overall may be looked at energy sources. Plus houses in Freiburg have been generating more energy than they consume (IEA 2012), and the figure 4.11 is the office complex in China used as a demonstration site for this.

Figure 4.11 Congress Centre, Dezhou, China. Buildings need not be nett consumers of energy, they can infact be energy generators.

12. MOBILITY Urban transport is one of the major components in the consumption of energy. It is evident that on average distances increase as the area of the city expands - and longer distances will necessarily consume more energy. Furthermore, a road system designed when the city was much smaller and transportation needs more limited cannot cope with the traffic generated when it grows to a size several times larger. Enlarging main roads or building elevated highways is sometimes possible, yet at the cost of poorer urban quality. Furthermore, as the number of vehicles increases it becomes virtually impossible to expand road sizes at surface level not mentioning the issue of providing parking spaces. If roads could keep increasing in size according to traffic demands, eventually all the city centre would have to be demolished to make a giant roundabout. 1 To cope with increasing demand for personal transportation, especially the critical home-to-work peak, the favoured solution has been to promote the use of public transport and adopt mass transit solutions. The comparisons are made in terms of energy used and emissions based on 2005 in Delhi showed that a bus dominated transit system would result in 31% reduction in energy use, while for a metro rail dominated transit system it would be 61% (Khanna et all, 2006)

12.1 BUS RAPID TRANSPORT Bus rapid transport systems have transformed the mobility infrastructure in many South American cities. Started in Curitiba in Brazil where the innovative concept by the then mayor helped transform the city infrastructure. It has spread throughout the latin American cities and is now being replicated in a number of Asian cities as well. In comparison to rail it is much quicker to implement, requires the minimum disruption and is very much cost effective. Once ridership reaches a critical level the same network could be transformed to run a light railway system. 2

BOGOTĂ : TransMilenio, an affordable and rapid bus transit system, includes numerous elevated stations in the center of a main avenue. Users pay at the station by smartcard and await the arrival of the bus, whose doors open at the same time as the sliding glass doors of the station. The buses have dedicated lanes and buses are running three times as fast as a typical New York bus, which equals 28 km an hour. Besides 300 km of bicycle lanes, stretching from the slum areas and suburbs into the capital centre been, have been built. The bicycle lanes are an ongoing project under concurrent development. Since the construction of the lanes, bicycle use has increased by 5 times in the city. BRT System Reduced Travelling Time 32%,Reduced Gas Emissions 40% and Reduced Accidents 90%. 3

Figure 4.12 BRT Bus in Mexico City. Bus Rapid Transport systems have transformed the mobility infrastructure in a number of South American Cities and this low cost and quicker to implement system is being replicated in many developing cities throughout he world.

12.2 CYCLING INFRASTRUCTURE & SHARING Solving the last mile leg in mobility, a cycling network is the convincing option. Bike sharing networks are low cost to implement and their implementation in Chinese cities has shown it to be effective in developing regions. As for the cycling infrastructure an effective one will ensure more people turn out on bikes as in Copenhagen which is encouraging for this. COPENHAGEN: Cycling Infrastructure Every day, 55% of all Copenhageners cycle to and from work. Bike lanes, cycle parking and special traffic lights for cyclists are part and parcel of the Copenhagen city scape. The infrastructure has been meticulously planned, the city has some 340 km of cycle lanes and the vast majority of major roads have cycle lanes in both directions. Series of traffic lights are timed to allow cyclists to ride the entire stretch without stopping at a red light if they maintain speed of 20 km/h. At traffic lights, cars stop 5 m behind the cyclists’ stop line and the cyclists have their own miniature set of traffic lights that give them priority over motor vehicles. Bicycle parking problems have been solved by the installation of bike stands throughout the city, New cycle lanes can serve 15-20% more bicycles and reduce the number of cars in the city scape by 10%. 3 Hangzhou: Public Bicycle The bicycle sharing system serving the city of Hangzhou. With 60,600 bicycles operating from 2,416 stations, it is the largest bike sharing system in the world, and is one of 19 currently operating bike-sharing systems in China. The success of the pilot has them optimistic to have 175,000 bikes by 2020. 3

Figure 4.13 Bike Sharing in Hangzhou. This bike sharing model is being implemented in 19 Chinese cities to solve the last mile connectivity.

12.3 GREEN MOBILITY SOLUTIONS Mobility solutions need to look beyond the road networks as well and ideas linking up city areas with gondolas as in Rio De Janeiro and in Caracas, Venezuela have helped provide access to neglected neighbourhoods in the poorer parts of the city. The initial proposals there were to build road network through the slum areas but resistance to it led to the innovative ideas of lining them up through less intrusive system of Gondolas. In Hong Kong the network of escalators in the city has transformed the last mile connectivity through the hilly streets transforming the businesses along the street. 4 In planning for a renewable city the whole network needs to be looked at in that sense to shift to renewable sources of fuel for the mobility sector as well. Friedrichshafen will be powered 100% by sustainable energy, shifting its public transport bus network to bio diesel. In Calgary already the urban rail service is operated by wind energy giving green credential to the mobility sector overall. 3

1. Mackay 2008 2. ICLEI 2009 3. WWF Sweden 2012 4. IEA 2009

RIO DE JANEIRO: Gondola in Favela Linking the mountainous favela with the rest of the city - and ensuring its participation in Rio’s fast-growing economy- was a serious challenge. The Complex of Alemao’s uneven terrain was not suitable for conventional modes of transportation, but the gondola is a smart and cost-effective solution for the integration of this underserved area to the rest of the city.3

Figure 4.14 HK Shelley Street Central-Mid-Levels escalators Elgin Street Innovative solutions like Gondolas in the city and public escalators in streets can help keeping personal cars at bay.

Figure 4.15 Gondolas in Favelas, Caracas,Venezuela. Providing connectivity and inclusion into the city network for residents of poor neighbourhoods.

13. ENERGY GENERATION Energy generation options exist in all countries for harnessing sunlight, wind and natural bio resources. Most developing nations are in the sunny parts of the world and the potential to harness renewable energies is big (fig 4.16). Within city limits the potential to harness the infrastructure for energy generation is possible and could be explored. From heat to electricity, biogas, options exist within the built environments to make use of facilities and utilise the potential.

Figure 4.16 Exploitable Renewbale Energy Potential for some countries. source: Mackay, 2008

Figure 4.17 Options of Renewbale energy production in the City. source: Genske et all 2009

The energy density of renewable energy sources in comparison to conventional power plants is very low. In urban areas of the developed countries energy in the range of 10W/m2, therefore there the initial challenge is to reduce the energy consumption in the first place to make them feasible. In developing countries since the energy consumption is less comparatively integrating reneweble sources in the urban regions could be used to power the cities. In the study for Dhaka (Kabir et all, 2009) it has been shown that just the roof areas in the city are more than sufficient to provide a theoretical 1000MW of peak capacity which is more than sufficient to cover all the energy requirements there.

Figure 4.18 Dhaka Bright Roofs Study. The study concludes that the potential electricity generation from the roofs in Dhaka is almost 1000MW, more than sufficent to power the whole city . source: (Kabir et al 2009)

13.1 SOLAR POWER Solar potential in the cities is the easiest to exploit both for heat and for electricity generation. The cost of heating systems is now low enough to be afforded in developing nations as well and many cities have made the initiative to make it compulsory to harness the solar energy for heating purposes. BETIM: Solar Low Cost Housing Itacolomi Housing Project in the city of Batim, Brazil. The Solar Heaters resulted in 20% savings of electricity consumption and up to 57% savings on electricity bills for the average 3-4 member family.2 RIZHAO: Almost all households in central Rizhao, China, utilize solar water heaters – and almost all the city’s lighting is powered by solar energy. 99% of all households in the city centre, and 30% in the suburbs, used solar water heaters in 2007. (Droege 2009)

Figure 4.18 Solar water heaters for low income housing at Betim, Brazil. Amadalvarez, wikimedia commons

BARCELONA: Sustainability regulations in Barcelona, require solar panels to be fitted to all large buildings. Since 2000, all new buildings and those undergoing major renovation have had to have solar energy sources installed to provide most of their hot water. Barcelona has increased, by over 50 times, the surface of solar thermal square meters in the city from 1.1m2 per 1,000 inhabitants in 2000 to 59m2 per 1,000 inhabitants in December 2010.3 Solar Microgrids

MGP’s microgrids are standalone devices. They consist of two solar panels of 120 volts each and two batteries that store power. Each microgrid generates enough electricity to power 35 households for seven hours every evening. The power that is generated is sufficient to run low wattage appliances such as lights and mobile chargers. The villagers pay the company an equivalent of 2$ each month for their consumption. (MGP 2013. Mera Gaon Power, http://www.mgp.com (accessed Jan

2013).

13.2 WIND POWER

Figure 4.19 Decentralised solar micro grids have the capability to get much needed electricitz to the people who lack the connection to a reliable grid.

Harnessing wind in the cities is feasible in coastal places where the offshore areas nearby could be exploited to harness the wind. Within cities though the urban built up densities does restrict the wind flow to make it uneconomical in most cases. (Genske 2009) COPENHAGEN: Middelgrunden‘ Wind Farm In 2000, the city of Copenhagen took part in a large offshore wind farm project two kilometres off the city‘s coastline. The wind farm ‚Middelgrunden‘ consists of a slightly curved line of 20 turbines, each with a rotor diameter of 76 m and a generator size of 2 MW. 3 1. Mackay 2008 2. ICLEI 2009 3. WWF Sweden 2012 4. IEA 2009 5. dac.dk 2012 6. Meragaon.com

CAPETOWN: The Darling wind farm is a national demonstration project opened in May 2008 , four 1.3 MW turbines generate a total output of 13.2 GWh/yr. The demonstration wind project includes a visitor and education centre. 4 Figure 4.19 Windfarm at Middlegrund, Denmark. Kim Hansen, wikimedia commons

13.3 BIOENERGY LIVERPOOL Algae Farms The algae farm in Liverpools disused docks would be divided into sectors, each covering 138 hectares, with its own bioreactor, manufacturing plant and reciprocating engine. Each sector would produce more than 20 million litres of biodiesel a year, in turn producing 78 MWh of electricity and 611TJ of heat. This would provide enough energy for more than a million homes. 3 VIENNA Biomass Power Plant In 2006, Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s largest wood biomass power plant was built in Vienna, Austria. Generating a comparable amount of heat and electricity is equivalent to the use of e.g. 72.000 tons of hard coal or around 45.000 tons of fuel oil. The Austrian National Forest Company, co-owner of the biomass power plant, provides the year-round supply of wood biomass. 245.000 solid cubic meters, comes from forests in a radius of 100 kilometres. 3 SHAANXI PROVINCE, China, Biogas Shaanxi Mothers an NGO promotes the use of biogas plants which provide clean fuel for cooking and lighting, improve sanitation and hygiene and help prevent further environmental degradation. 8 to 10 m3 biogas plant can supply family with enough gas for 90% of daily fuel. By 2009, 2267 biogas plants installed in resulting in total CO2 saving of 14,000 tonnes a year. (Radzi 2009)

Figure 4.19 Biogas plant at land fill site Bogota The previously toxic waste dumps are being used to put to valuable use by capturing the methane released from these dumping sites. (Alex Steiner / Flickr

SAO PAULO , Landfill Gas 2 disused landfill sites have been converted as power stations, producing electricity from the captured landfill gas. By capturing and burning the methane gas, the landfills generate the equivalent to 7% of the electricity consumed in the city. 4 BIOCENTRES, Lagos, Nigeria Biocentres which have toilets and bathing facilities on the ground floor, which are associated with a biogas plant underground. The gas from the biogas plant is used in stoves, either in the Biocentre building or in an adjoining property, thus saving firewood. A biocentre can be placed anywhere in the slum and does not require a sewer system since the waste is treated on the spot. A biocentre is administered by local groups, which then get some jobs and income by keeping the toilets clean. (figure 4.20) Figure 4.20 BIOCENTRE in Lagos slum. Biocentres provide toilet and bathing facilities in slums . They do not require a sewer connection as the waste gets treated on the spot, turned into fuel.

Figure 4.21 Section Through a Biocentre. The ground floor has the Toilets and Bathing facilities and the underground chamber is a bio digester where the waste gets turned into methane to be used as fuel for cooking.

13.4 OTHERS Beyond the main sources of solar and wind there are fringe sources which are being explored in various places. Waste to energy plans are more commonly coming up in most cities to dispose off waste and produce energy. Other technologies currently under development for tidal and ocean power are experimental but starting to be incorporated within the cities. NEW YORK: Tidal Power In the typical water flow of the East River, the fins move relatively slowly so as not to do any major damage to creatures and objects in the water. As the tides change, the turbines pivot around to capture the flow of water in the other direction thus allowing for maximal energy harvesting. (dak.dk 2012) COPENHAGEN: Waste-To-Energy-Plants Like many other European countries, Denmark has radically changed its waste management strategies in the last 10 to 20 years. Landfills, which used to be the general solution, now only accept only 3% of Copenhagen‘s total rubbish. As an alternative, 39 % of all material the city collects is incinerated in „waste to energy“ plants that generate power. In 2004, the amount of heat and power generated from waste in Copenhagen was enough for the needs of 70.000 households, producing 210.000 MWH of electrical energy and 720.000 MWh of heat. 3 THISTED: Geothermal Energy This Municipality in Denmark has as early as 1984 Varmeforsyning opened the first deep geothermal heat plant. It has been integrated with the district heating network to provide heat as well as electricity from the geothermal source. (dak.dk 2012)

Figure 4.22 VerdantPower Turbine. The tidal power which is reliable and predictable can be practically harnessed with emerging technology. www.verdantpower.com

Figure 4.23 Thisted Geothermal Power Plant The vast geothermal core of the Earth is tapped to convert to electricity. Regions where its practically feasible can benefit from this resource in developing cities as well. Philippines gets a quarter of its electricity supply from geothermal power plants.* Image source: Thisted Municipality

2. ICLEI 2009 3. WWF Sweden 2012 4. IEA 2009

PART 5: INCENTIVES OF A RENEWABLE CITY IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY

...Developing countries in the grip of international lending leveraged policies will also benefit from reform of these policies, to advance 100 percent renewable targets not merely as desirable aspects of sustainable development, but the very condition on which to found sustainable aims such as for example the Millennium Development goals. (Droege

2009)

14.1 HEALTHY CITY Cities today are grappling with the problem of a pollution caused by burning of fossil fuels. Energy and air pollution are closely linked because urban outdoor air pollution is primarily a result of fuel burning in power generation, industries, transport, and commercial and residential sectors. (Grubler 2012) pollution intensive fuels (biomass or coal) used at the high demand densities of urban areas quickly result in unacceptably high levels of pollution concentration (such as the London ‘killer smog’ of 1952 or the current air-quality situation in many cities, especially in the developing world). Even low-pollution fuels, such as natural gas, can quickly overwhelm the pollution dissipative capacity of urban environments. So, high energy-demand density requires zero-emission fuels:(Pareto 2008)

Figure 5.1 Smog in Beijing, January 2013 The burning of fossil fuels is responsible for the pollution in developing cities to a large extent. Source:zmescience.com

Renewable cities hold a promise of a healthy environment free from the clogging pollution experienced in todays developing cities choked with the fumes of burning fossil fuels. A clean environment more conducive to live and breathe in fresh air. Moreover its a city where people are not dependent on cars to go to the neighbourhood store but are able to walk or cycle there will be sure to improve the general quality of life by keeping the citizens healthy.

14.2 LOCAL EMPLOYMENT Renewable technologies require more jobs than fossil fuel technologies. Incorporating them in the city creates more local jobs in operation and maintenance. 18 per cent of Germany’s electricity now comes from hydro power, solar power and wind farms and 300,000 new jobs have been created in ten years.(Irena, 2011) Even though labour productivity evolves through time, studies have shown that renewable energy technologies are currently more labour-intensive than fossil fuel technologies, with solar PV technology accounting for the highest number of job-years per GWh over the lifetime of the facility. (Irena, 2011)

Figure 5.2 Job-years/GWH Renewable energies requires more local jobs than conventional fossil fuels.

14.3 HARMONIOUS CITY Cities in the developing countries are the most disharmonious as has been shown in chapter 3. The poor lack access to energy sources as they are more centralised and so get the last priority. For a large part of the urban population that lacks clean fuels and electricity, the reasons are not that they cannot afford these but that they face political or institutional obstacles to accessing them. Energy plays a major role in the social quality. Sufficient supplies of clean energy are the basis for raising standards of living, improving the quality and quantity of human capital, enhancing the business and natural environment. (Grubler 2012) It is the poor in the cities who can benefit most from the distributed infrastructure of renewable cities. Getting access to services easily is a boon which can be provided by distributed systems. Lack of access to affordable electricity and heavy reliance on the inefficient and unsustainable use of traditional biomass fuels(i.e., fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste and animal dung) are both manifestations and causes of poverty. Electricity and other modern energy sources play a critical role in economic and social development. They alone cannot alleviate poverty but they are indispensable to sustainable development. (Chafe 2007) Modern energy services enhance the life of the poor in countless ways. Electric light extends the day, providing extra hours for reading and work. Modern cook-stoves save women and children from daily exposure to noxious cooking fumes. Refrigeration extends food freshness and avoids wastage. Manufacturing and service enterprises with modern energy can be more productive and can extend the quality and range of their products thereby creating jobs and higher wages. (Grubler 2012) Lack of access to modern energy services is a serious hindranceto economic and social development. There is evidence that countries which pursue broad-based access to infrastructure services will find that economic growth is distributed relatively equally among the various groups of society, thus reducing poverty more effectively (DFID, 2002 cited in Chafe 2007).

14.4 LEAPFROGGING Development follows the usual transition of fuel change as was shown by Urban energy transitions, (Droege 2008) where development follows the transition of fuel choice from biomass to fossil fuels to electricity and then to renewable energy as primary energy source. One of the more obvious opportunities for cities in developing countries is that of ‘leapfrogging’ – where countries skip inferior, less efficient, more expensive or more polluting technologies and industries and move directly to more advanced ones. In terms of energy planning, developing countries need not repeat the mistakes of highly industrialised countries in creating an energy infrastructure based on fossil fuels, but ‘jump’ directly to renewable energy sources and more efficient technologies.(ICLEI 2010)

Figure 5.3 Access to Energy improves lives. source: Kaygusuz 2008

180 160

Investments/savings [million euro]

140 120

14.5 ENERGY AUTONOMY 100 Electricity costs

80 Security of energy supplies is a crucial issue going forward, with the avoided 60 recent wars having been fought over it. Distributed renewable Heating energy costs avoided 40 in the city bring a security of energy autonomy insulating systems the 20 from the mayhem. Renovation costs citizens 0 incurred on the technologies today can pay off in The cost the longforrun Investments energy yields and cost -20 savings in the end will ensure a steady future. Sustainability recognizes there are limits in the local regional and global systems -40 within which cities fit and that when those limits are breached cities -60 2007decline. 2010 The 2013more 2020 2040 2050 can rapidly a city2030 can minimize its dependence Years [a] on resource such as fossil fuels in a period when there are global constraints on supply and global demand is increasing the more Excellence scenario resilient it will be.(Neumann 2007)

Annual investments and savings for the excellence scenario.

200

Investments/savings [million euro]

180 160

Electricity sales

140

Electricity costs avoided

120

Heating costs avoided

100 80

Investments for energy yields

60 40

Renovation costs

IBA projects and follow-on projects

0 -20 -40 -60

2007

2010

2013

2020 2030 Years [a]

2040

2050

Figure 5.4 Investment and Cost Savings: IBA Hamburg The investments as part of the Renewable cities pays off in the end saving money and helping in energy autonomy.

14.5 A RESILIENT CITY energy secure andwill curbing energy contribution to Development of the IBAMaking area into a CO2supply -neutral district The strategy developed in the excellence scenarios is tailored climate changeand arepromote often referred as the two to over-riding challenges. have an impact on the local economy employment suit the individual urban environments. In addition to the (Grubler 2012) Resilience from climate change and resilience from

and training. The reference scenarios anticipate that between IBA projects and their follow-on projects, decentralised energy fossil fuel supplies are the hallmarks of a renewable city. 50 and 60 new jobs in the field of maintenance and operation of production, renovation measures and efficiency initiatives are renewable energy technology will bethinking createdthe by more 2050,sustainable while the city promoted. IBAbearea will be self-sufficient, climate-neutral In resilience the moreThe it will excellence scenarios provide approximately 230 in jobs, four that and able tofor cope with reductions resources aresustainable. used to make times as many. the city work. Sustainability recognizes there are limits in the local

regional and global systems within which cities fit and that when those limits are breached cities can rapidly decline. The more a city can minimize its dependence on resource such as fossil fuels in a period when there are global constraints on supply and global demand is increasing the more resilient it will be. Atlanta needs 782 gallons of gasoline per person each year for its urban system to work but in Barcelona it is just 64 gallons. With oil supply cuts and carbon taxes the decline in availability of oil will seriously confront Atlanta yet Barcelona is likely to cope with ease. (Neumann 2007)

PART 6: CONCLUSION AND TAKING THE RESEARCH FORWARD..

A critical glance at the history of modern cities reveals the breathtaking panorama of grand, delirious detour into a fossil fuel cul-de-sac an historical error of epic scale. Modern cities flourished economically and physically on fossil-fuel nutrients.

CONCLUSION It is sufficiently clear that cities will face a crisis by relying on fossil fuels for the future needs. A change has to be brought in firstly for the future of the planet as we know it, to save it from unpredictable climate change. Most progressive cities are planning to get off this reliance in consideration for this and also to avoid a situation where the cities stop functioning as fossil fuels run out. Cities in developed nations are now forced to retrofit, the developing ones have a chance to set up things right from the beginning. There is a vast demand for energy ready to explode in the cities of the developing countries. Increasing the efficiency of land use design to reduce the demand to travel long distances and stimulating neighbourhood activities and non-motorized traffic (walkways, bicycles, etc) can result in massive savings in energy use. (wwf Sweden 2012). This is a possibility to apply alternative planning approaches considering location, size and land use decisions under a more expensive energy context. (IEA 2012) The developing countries are going to be the future growth centres. Design and development of improved, energy-efficient urban infrastructure in developing nations presents an opportunity to set things right, yet they are slow to react to the realities staring in the face. On the other hand, urban development decisions on expanding existing cities, building new urban centres and setting up urban infrastructure and services according to a preferred land use pattern are made by the local, regional or central authorities, who still are not fully aware of their responsibility in participating in the energy management effort. (Grubler 2012) Urban areas and particularly those that will be built in the developing countries will account for most of the additional demand for energy in the next 40 years, absorbing 2.7 billion people and almost doubling the demand for energy. As such, it seems clear that while one focus of attention should be on shifting energy production from fossil fuels to sustainable sources, an equally important one is where the increase in demand will take place: in the rapidly expanding urban centres of the developing nations. (Pareto 2007) These are unique opportunities because the size of urban population is bound to peak in this century and thus the intensity of urban development expected in this first half of the century is not expected to ever repeat itself. 57

TAKING FORWARD The research is a foundation to be taken forward in an urban design context. The next step is to attempt to see how the concept shown here for a renewable city in a developing country can be shown as practical with the ideas catalogued. An urban design project will attempt to take this idea forward and for this the city of Chandigarh in India has been chosen as a design research case. CASE FOR CHANDIGARH Chandigarh is a city designed by Le Corbusier in the post war period. It was commissioned as a place to showcase a new identity for the nation. â&#x20AC;&#x153;let this be a new town, symbolic of the freedom of India, unfettered by the traditions of the past, an expression of the nations faith in the futureâ&#x20AC;? were the words used to describe the city during the foundation laying ceremony by the then Prime minister of the country. This identity unfortunately was based on the assumption of abundant availability of energy. The city relies on fossil fuels for more than 90% of its energy needs. The 10% renewable energy from hydro power plants is imported from outside the region. There is no other renewable sources being tapped within the city region.

Figure 6.1 Corbusier with the Plan of Chandigarh The idea of a new modern city was based on the premise of abundant fossil fuel energy.

REASON FOR CHOOSING CHANDIGARH The Chandigarh project has been highly influential in urban planning. The city population itself has grown from the designed 500,000 to more than 2 million adding in the suburbs which are based on the same pattern and is projected to go up further. Most new developments at least in India are based on the same pattern and is being replicated in most city extensions and developments. So the same fossil fuel dependence is being spread out. The city is based on the neighbourhood concept with each neighbourhood being designed as a self sufficient unit in itself with regard to its needs for living, working and leisure. But the sustainability in terms of energy is missing from the matrix. The urban design project will aim to address this gap and in the process show it as a prototypical solution for all the expansions which have happened and planned based on this planning. SOLAR CITY PROJECT: There is already a proposal to introduce renewable energies in the city and to reduce the carbon emissions termed as the solar city project. But this is target is to have 5 % demand of energy only to be met with this. With cities today striving to be 100% renewable, this miniscule figures seems insignificant. The aim of the design exercise will be to show how the concept of a renewable city could be targeted for a city in a developing country by taking this as a case example.

Figure 6.2 Street View, Chandiarh, Source: Author

CHANDIGARH Elevation: Population: Area

350 m (1,150 ft.) 960,787 114 km2 (44 sq. mi)

Energy Sources

Energy Consumption per capita 1162 KWH

End Energy Uses CHANDIGARH MASTER PLAN CONCEPT 1952, Source: City Museum, Chandigarh.

GHG Emissions

Figure 6.2 Master Plan of Chandigarh

This new capital of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Punjab..... still looms large as tangible if wistfully forlorn icon among pioneering fossil fuel based innovations of the world.

Droege, P. Renewable Cities. 2009

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 The Components of Ecological footprint. Source: wwf 2012 Figure 1.2 Number of Earths required. retreived 24 10 2012 from www.ecoffotprint.org Figure 1.3 The Carbon footprint as a component of theecological footprint. retreived 24 10 2012 from www.ecoffotprint.org Figure 1.4 The Carbon emissions per capita divided by regions. Mackay 2008 Figure 1.5 The estimated Historic population of the world. retreived on 05 10 2012 from www.nature.com http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/fig_tab/ nature11157_F2.html Figure 1.6 The projected population of the world, UNDP 2010 Figure 1.7 The Urban population as a percentage of the total 1970-2050 source: UNICEF,retreived on 05 11 2012 from http://www.unicef.org/sowc2012/urbanmap/ Figure 1.8 The population growth in smaller cities currently lessthan 1 million people will probably grow the most.Source UNFPA 2010 Figure 1.9 Growth of Cities. source Guardian UK, retreived on 05 11 2012 from http:// www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/22/global-population-growth-africa-cities Figure 1.10 The Share of Fuel Use - World in 2011.source BP Statistical Review 2012 retreived from http://www.bp.com/assets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/ reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/ statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2012.pdf Figure 1.11 The 2010 US Fuel usage by sector. retreived from http://www.eia.gov/ forecasts/aeo/er/images/figure_12es-lg.png Figure 1.12 Oil Production from 1950 to 2050 retreived on 15 10 2012 from peakoil.net Figure 1.13 The last frontiers 1. wikimedia commons retrieved on 23-02-2013 Figure 1.14 The last frontier 2, Searching for oil in the last places on Earth, the arctic., retreived on 23-02-2013 from http://www.globalenvironmentalsociety.net/index.php Figure 1.15 1. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2. IPCC 2007 Figure 1.16 6 Degree rise. retreived on 08-01-2012 from http://www.dw.de/worldclimate-bank-could-manage-co2-emissions/a-4616955 Figure 1.17 The Global mean temperatre has been rising throughthe years, IPCC 2007 Figure 1.18 What are the consequences of global warming? source: Guardian, UK http:// www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/gallery/2012/sep/27/information-beautiful-awards Figure 2.1 Study bz Ecofys WWF 2012 Figure 2.2 Concept for a renewable energy grid by OMA. WWF 2012 Figure 2.3a Potential of Solar power for electricity and heatproduction. Singer 2010 Figure 2.4Concentration solar power projects in the sunny. Mackay 2008 Figure 2.3bThe global realisable potential of wind power that. Singer 2010 Figure 2.5 Evolution of cities. source Figure 2.6 The current emissions of the swiss society. retreived on 18-10-2012 from http://www.novatlantis.ch/ Figure 2.8 Carbon reduction targets for cities retreived from http://www.c40cities.org/ Figure 2.12 Various studies have calculated. Berger,T and Genske, D 2011 Figure 2.12 The Renewable Liechtenstein project. .Droege, P., Genske, D., Jödecke T., Roos, M., Ruff A. (2012) Figure 2.13 The proposal. Droege, P., Genske, D., Jödecke T., Roos, M., Ruff A. (2012) Figure 2.14 Renewable proposal for the City of Sonderhausen. Genske 2009 62

Figure 2.15 Basel, Switzerland, Electricity demand current. Berget T and Genske, D 2011 Figure 2.16 Basel, Switzerland, Renewable Electricity. Berget T and Genske, D 2011 Figure 2.17 IBA Hamburg, proposal for 100% renewable. IBA-Hamburg 2010 Figure 2.18 Potentials mapped within the district to meet 100%. IBA-Hamburg 2010 Figure 2.19 Biomass based power plant provide for the. Sourced . Gerfriedc, Wikimedia commons Figure 2.20 Wind turbines provide all the electricity needed. Source: dac, www.dac.dk/ sustainable cities Figure 2.21 Bio methane storage facility in Guessing, Austria. Source: dac, www.dac.dk/ sustainable cities Figure 2.22 Energy Plus houses. source dac, www.dac.dk/sustainable cities Figure 3.1 The world bank classification of countries. Data Source. World Bank. http:// data.worldbank.org/ Figure 3.2 Developing countries population. Data Source. World Bank. http://data. worldbank.org/ Figure 3.3 POPULATION GROWTH LEVEL. Data Source. World Bank. http://data. worldbank.org/ Figure 3.4 The consumption of energy developing nations. Mackay 2008 Figure 3.5 CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA. 1990-2009. Data Source. World Bank. http:// data.worldbank.org/ Figure 3.6 PRIMARY ENERGY USE (KgOE)1990 to 2009 Data Source. World Bank. http:// data.worldbank.org/ Figure 3.7 to 3.10 Data Source. World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/ Figure 3.11 DENSEST CITIES retreived from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/pii/S0264275108000267 Figure 3.12 URBAN BUILT UP DENSEST CITIES (persons per sq. Km). retreived from http:// www.newgeography.com/content/002428-a-fly-econometrics-exaggerating-urbanization Figure 3.13 Stark levels of difference in living. 1. Sao Paulo, Google Earth. retreived in November 2012 2. Sao Paulo, Unknown source Figure 3.14 GINI INDEX Data Source. World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/ Figure 3.15 RESTORATION OF RIVER BY REMOVAL OF HIGHWAY. retreived from http:// wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/cities/ Figure 3.16 CHINA‘s ENERGY GENERATION 1970-2005. source. http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/world-asia-china-20069627 Figure 3.1 WORLD OIL PRICES Data Source. World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/ Figure 4.1 The Path to Renwwable Cities. source futurepolicy.org Figure 4.2 MASDAR CITY. source masdarcity.ae Figure 4.3 AUROVILLE VISION 2025 MASTERPLAN. sourced from Auroville Centre for Urban Research. www.auroville.org Figure 4.4 BIOFUEL PLANT: retreived from wikimedia commons. copyrighted by Bertel Bolt-J Figure 4.6 Songdo, retreived from http://www.hok.com/design/service/architecture/ new-songdo-city/ Figure 4.7 The BRE Code 6 Level Home at Watford. source: wikimedia commons Figure 4.8 Sanaa in Yemen, sourced from wikimedia commons.India. author. Figure 4.10 TZED Housing , Bangalore. sourced from www.zed.in 63

Figure 4.11 Congress Centre, Dezhou, China. retreived from http://inhabitat.com/chinabuilding-the-biggest-solar-energy-production-base-in-the-whole-world/dezhou-solarvalley-3/ Figure 4.12 BRT Bus in Mexico City. from wikimedia commons. pic by Set Domínguez Figure 4.13 Bike Sharing in Hangzhou. from wikimedia commons. pic by Payton Chung Figure 4.14 HK Shelley Street Central-Mid-Levels escalators Elgin from wikimedia Figure 4.9 Replicating the traditional building characteristics inbuilding design. Auroville, commons.pic by Maucaine Figure 4.15 Gondolas in Favelas, Caracas,Venezuela. sourced from http://www.wired. com/magazine/2011/02/st_riogondola/ Figure 4.17 Options of Renewbale energy in Cities. Genske 2009 Figure 4.18 Power per unit Area. Kabir et all 2009 Figure 4.18 Solar water heaters for low income housing at Betim. ICLEI 2010 Figure 4.19 Decentralised solar micro grids. source http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/ india%E2%80%99s-microgrid-moment Figure 4.20 BIOCENTRE in Lagos slum. source. http://www.globalenvision.org/topics/ urbanization Figure 4.21 Section Through a Biocentre. source. http://www.folkecenter.net/gb/news/ world/biogas-in-shantytowns/ Figure 4.22 VerdantPower Turbine. source www.verdant.com Figure 5.1 Smog in Beijing, January 2013. source Guardian UK. http://www.guardian. co.uk/world/2013/jan/14/beijing-smog-continues-media-action Figure 5.2 Job-years/GWH source. IRENA 2011 Figure 5.4 Investment and Cost Savings: IBA- Hamburg 2010 Figure 6.1 Corbusier with the Plan of Chandigarh. http://tesugen.com/archives/04/07/ le-corbusiers-chandigarh Figure 6.2 Street View, Chandiarh, author Figure 6.2 Master Plan of Chandigarh source. city museum Chandigarh. author

ABBREVEATIONS CO2 GWH EJ TCE TOE TW UNEP

Carbon Dioxide Gigawatt Hour Exo Joules Tonnes of Carbon Equivalent Tonnes of Oil Equivalent Tera Watt United Nations Environment Programme

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

To all the wonderful people who have made this possible. Thank you Peter. Acknowledgment is due to the people of Liechtenstein who fund the course in the university and the donors for he API scholarship whose generous contributions have helped me to pursue the course. A big thank you.

AFFIDAVIT

I certify that the work presented here is, to the best of my knowledge and belief, original and the result of my own research, except as acknowledged, and has not been submitted, either in part or whole, for a degree at this or any other University.

Vaduz, 01.02.2013

Hitanshu Jishtu