CLOUD COVER IN EUROPE An assessment of the business climate for cloud services
EQUINIX WHITEPAPER
CONTENTS 3 Introduction 4 The climate for cloud business in Europe 8 Country by country assessment of cloud business potential 11 Conclusions and recommendations 13 References and sources
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INTRODUCTION The European market is a hotbed for cloud business opportunity. Taken as a whole this is the second largest market outside the US and it is growing quickly. According to IDC figures quoted by the European Union, the public cloud market in Europe has the potential to reach €80 billion by 2020, up from €4.6 billion in 2011.1 The consensus view among all of the major analyst firms is that the next few years will see growth rates in cloud services and related technologies of between 30 per cent and 40 per cent. In reality, cloud is the growth driver of the IT industry as a whole – and one that is beginning to change it dramatically as it gains importance. Little wonder then that governments across Europe (including the European Union) view cloud as a key source of technological development and economic growth; one that they are eager to encourage and promote. Yet anyone with experience in this market understands the inherent contradiction of considering the European market as a whole: it isn’t one market, but a collection of distinct, neighbouring, and sometimes closely related markets. This raises a number of major questions for providers of cloud services and technologies in Europe that are planning for growth and expansion. Where are the best locations from which to operate? Are these the ideal locations from which to deliver services? Is it necessary to have local operations to serve a local market? What about growth opportunities beyond Europe? What communities exist that could potentially make this expansion easier? With these questions in mind, the goal of this white paper is to provide a high-level assessment of the business climate for cloud in the major economies of Europe and the hotspots or hubs of cloud activity across the region. Our aim is to help leaders of cloud companies in making decisions to support their growth and expansion objectives. Although growth rates are high, so is the business risk involved: whether a start-up, an established player, or a division of a larger company, cloud providers that do not carefully manage the investment required to expand their services face the very real possibility of writing off large amounts of money – and even going out of business. In order to provide this view of the business climate for cloud, we have relied on a number of different information sources: • Market size, growth, adoption rates, and some opinion, from various analyst firms, including Gartner, IDC, and 451 Group • Available information on some of the direct and indirect government investments in cloud across Europe • Anecdotal views from players in the sector and other commentators • Anonymised data from the Equinix Marketplace on cloud providers and the data centre locations from which they operate
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THE CLIMATE FOR CLOUD BUSINESS IN EUROPE
Let us first clarify what we mean by ‘cloud’. We subscribe to the definition of cloud as a set of services, in line with the NIST definition that is widely used in the industry. These services include infrastructure as a service, platform as a service, and software as a service whether in a public, private, community or hybrid deployment model. For the purposes of this white paper, however, we take a somewhat broader view of what we call the cloud market. This includes not just services, but also enabling technologies that help to operationalise, manage, or transition to cloud service models. We also consider, particularly from the perspective of entrepreneurialism in Europe, companies that rely heavily on cloud services to run their core businesses – these are often in areas such as gaming, video and digital content delivery, and consumer retail.
WHAT THE ANALYSTS SAY They may differ in their market definitions and forecast figures, but the analyst firms agree on at least one thing: cloud is growing very rapidly and gaining share of IT spending. IDC forecasts the European market for cloud will grow from €4.6 billion in 2011 to €10.9 billion in 2016, with what it terms hardware-related public cloud (IaaS) growing at a compound annual rate of 34.9 per cent and software-related (PaaS, SaaS) growing slightly more slowly at 32.2 per cent. This represents a growth from 1.6 per cent of total IT spending in Europe in 2011 to 3.6 per cent in 2016.2 Gartner forecasts that public cloud services in Europe (including cloud-based business process outsourcing) will grow from $24.31 billion to $42.48 billion in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.8 per cent over this period. The region is likely to have far higher growth rates for IaaS, PaaS, and cloud management and security systems, which Gartner forecasts to grow worldwide at compound annual rates of 41.7 per cent, 26.6 per cent, and 27.2 per cent, respectively, from 2011 to 2016. SaaS is set to grow at a 17.4 per cent.3 What is clear from all of the analyst firms is that SaaS is a fairly mature and well-understood delivery model. Though it continues to significantly outpace growth of traditional software licenses by a large margin, it is not growing as quickly as the less mature (and smaller) parts of the market, in particular IaaS and PaaS. The other noteworthy point of consensus is that the tipping point in cloud adoption appears to be on the horizon. According to IDC data, 45 per cent of European enterprises surveyed in 2012 were already fully utilising cloud in one area or more, 19 per cent were using cloud computing on a trial or limited basis, and another 13 per cent were planning to adopt cloud computing.4 Gartner’s data from a similar survey in 2012 suggested that, worldwide, 40 per cent of enterprises were already using some form of cloud services and that an additional 25 per cent had plans to do so within the next 12 months.5 Likewise, 451 Group’s ChangeWave research from February 2013 says that while 26 per cent of its respondents in the US and Europe are using a cloud platform today, 40 per cent are in pilot and plan to adopt one in the next 18 months.6 All of this suggests that by the end of 2013, it is highly likely that the majority of enterprises in Europe will have adopted some sort of cloud service in a meaningful way.
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OPPORTUNITIES MAY BE LOCAL, BUT IT’S A GLOBAL SYSTEM Like jet streams in the weather system, the flow of cloud is global. Also like the jet stream, there is strong movement from North America to Europe. Demand from customers that operate globally as well as customers based in Europe has, not surprisingly, attracted many cloud providers from the US. As a case in point, Amazon, through Amazon Web Services, is widely credited with creating the public cloud market. Though anything beyond estimated figures are notoriously impossible to find (Amazon does not publish them), AWS is believed to have the single largest share of the market, including in Europe. Data for Europe from Equinix Marketplace, (an online portal that permits any Equinix customer to find services provided by other Equinix customers according to provider, service type, or data centre location), gives us a good sense of both where cloud providers in Europe come from and the locations from which they deliver their services.7 While the single largest group of cloud providers in Europe is headquartered in the US, the UK represents the largest country of origin among European cloud providers. Given the maturity of the US market, it is unsurprising that USheadquartered companies are such a significant slice of the cloud market in Europe. It is equally unsurprising, that the majority of cloud providers in Europe are European headquartered, especially given the nature and complexities of the IT market here. Figure 1 shows the percentage of cloud providers in Europe by country of headquarters. The flow is not entirely one-way, however. We see an increasing number of European-based cloud companies expanding to North America, Asia, and Latin America. ElasticHosts, a UK-based hosting company, recently deployed with Equinix in Hong Kong to support its expansion in the region. CloudSigma, a Swiss-headquartered IaaS provider, already serves customers from around the world and is actively planning to extend its service delivery capabilities to the US, Brazil, and Asia.
Rank of cloud business entrepreneurialism Location Rank US
29%
UK
20%
Germany
13%
France
11%
Switzerland
11%
Netherlands
7%
Rest of Europe
6%
Rest of World
4% Source: Equinix
Figure 1: Rank of cloud business entrepreneurialism – cloud providers in Europe by headquarters location:
BUT WHERE ARE YOU REALLY FROM? Cloud companies whose origins are in Europe are increasingly difficult to tie to any one country. As they pursue funding, talent, and customers in several different parts of the world, many of these companies move their headquarters to the location that makes the most sense – not necessarily where they started out. For instance, CloudBees has a Swiss founder, but is now headquartered in the US; Abiquo was founded in Spain and has UK headquarters; and LivePerson was founded in Israel, with headquarters in the US. This follows a trend we have seen previously in the IT industry – in just one example, Cognizant, a provider of offshore services delivered primarily from India, is headquartered in the US, its main target market.
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LOCAL HUBS VERSUS LOCAL MARKETS The ‘multi-nationality’ of many cloud companies points an important set of issues around identifying where to find new customers and where to base service delivery in order to serve those customers well. The answers might well be very different than deciding where to base operations or development resources. In terms of targeting market opportunity in Europe, the largest markets according to size are, from largest to smallest, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.8 Market size is one key factor in determining where to focus business development resources. By contrast, the factors in choosing the best locations for basing cloud service delivery are different. According to bandwidth ranking by Telegeography, the top four cities in the world are London, Frankfurt, Paris, and Amsterdam. International exchanges and peering points concentrate cloud businesses around the same four cities. Figure 2 shows the ranking of key cities in terms of concentration of cloud providers. Data from Equinix Marketplace give us a sense of how cloud providers of different origins approach the question of locating service delivery in Europe. US-based companies represent the largest share (29 per cent), of cloud providers with data centre presence in Europe. At present, 75 per cent of these US-owned service providers have established operations in one active European data centre location. The remaining 25 per cent have two or more, with 8 per cent having four or more data centre locations in operation in the region (see Figure 3).
Rank of cloud business hotspots Location Rank London
28%
Frankfurt
28%
Amsterdam
16%
Paris
16%
Zurich
12% Source: Equinix
Figure 2: Rank of cloud business hotspots Share of cloud providers by data centre metro
Number of data centre locations 8%
1
17%
2-3 75%
4 or more
Source: Equinix
Figure 3: US cloud providers in Europe by number of data centre locations
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The most popular locations for US-based cloud providers are Amsterdam and London. Figure 4 shows the most popular data centre locations for US companies by country. By contrast, we see a different approach among European-based cloud providers. In general, the majority of European cloud providers only have data centre space in their home country. This trend is particularly pronounced in Switzerland and Germany, less so in the UK and France. Cloud providers in the Netherlands are the most likely to have data centre locations in other European countries. (see Figure 5) A number of factors influence these different choices and approaches to locating service delivery. Language, business culture, and regulations are chief among them. American companies tend to gravitate toward London and Amsterdam as locations for both regional operations and service delivery, typically with an eye to serving the whole of Europe. English is widely spoken in both cities and the business culture more closely resembles that of the US. In addition, the regulatory environments, whether interpretation of data privacy legislation or employment law, are more open than elsewhere in Europe. European companies have a strong tendency to focus a high proportion of their business efforts on their home countries, and typically maintain service delivery there as well. In effect, this allows them to exploit barriers to entry from other competitors, who may lack the appropriate market knowledge, cultural sensitivities, and language skills.
Popular data centre locations 3%
Netherlands
12%
17%
UK 36%
19%
Germany France Switzerland
30%
Source: Equinix
Figure 4: Most popular European data centre locations for US cloud companies
Exclusively have data centre presence in their home country Switzerland
45%
17%
91%
Germany France
68%
UK 68%
90%
Netherlands
Source: Equinix
Figure 5: Rank of companies by country that exclusively have data centre presence in their home country
Regardless of their country of origin, cloud providers operating in Europe are clearly beginning to expand into data centre locations in multiple countries as they gain new customers who demand that cloud services be delivered locally. Although this clear preference among buyers of cloud services in Europe is likely to change over time (and with forthcoming harmonisation of data privacy and protection regulations from the European Union), for the next several years this is likely to remain a major factor in determining where cloud providers locate their services.
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COUNTRY BY COUNTRY ASSESSMENT OF CLOUD BUSINESS POTENTIAL
This following analysis looks at the business environment for cloud services business within the leading European nations.
UNITED KINGDOM The UK is one of the most dynamic markets for cloud in Europe. It is both the largest and one of the most attractive for international providers. According to Equinix data, 26 per cent of European cloud businesses and 30 per cent of US-owned businesses have bases in the UK. One fifth of Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) operating in EMEA are headquartered in the UK. Most of these service providers also have Continental aspirations, with 32 per cent of UK-based CSPs operating in more than one EMEA market. Cloud Industry Forum9 research found that almost half (48 per cent) of all UK-based organisations already use some form of cloud service, with larger companies more likely to use them. The survey also found that 41 per cent of survey respondents did not want their data hosted outside the UK.
Forecast public cloud market value within Europe by 2016 Location Value UK
$17.86 billion
Germany France
$7.83 billion $5.24 billion
Netherlands $2.27 billion Switzerland $750 million Spain
$2.08 billion
Italy
$2.17 billion
Source: Gartner, Forecast Overview: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2011-2016, 2Q12 Update, August 2012
The UK Government is investing heavily in promoting the cloud computing industry, both directly and indirectly. The G-Cloud framework is part of the government ICT policy through which public sector bodies can buy cloud services. This core of the plan is to supply multi-tenanted cloud services to the public sector at a considerably reduced cost. Procurement guidelines within the framework strongly favour smaller companies with shorter track records – in other words, innovative young cloud providers – in contrast to typical government procurement approaches that would have excluded these players from contracting directly with public sector customers. TechCity, led by the UKTI, the department of trade and industry, is a government and industry-backed technology cluster base around Central and East London to encourage growth and development of technology-driven business. The TechCity program has been as much about capitalising on existing entrepreneurial activity already happening (Huddle is perhaps the biggest example) as helping to promote and extend this activity.
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GERMANY There are two important dynamics at work in the cloud market in Germany, the second largest in Europe. One is the attractiveness of Germany, in particular Frankfurt, as a location in which to base cloud service delivery. The other is the particular set of requirements to serve German customers. Frankfurt is a compelling location to base cloud services – it is centrally located and has a high density of network providers and peering exchanges. These two factors make Frankfurt a particularly appealing place for cloud providers from Eastern Europe to locate their service delivery. Latency to points in both Eastern and Western Europe is good, network density offers choice and price competition, and the benefits of a stable political system and business environment offer a degree of security from dramatic policy changes that could negatively impact the ability to conduct business. Cloud businesses from elsewhere also come here because Germany is widely considered to have one of the strictest interpretation of EU data privacy legislation. For many CSPs trying to serve customers across Europe, it is easier to provide services from one of the most restrictive jurisdictions elsewhere, rather than vice-versa. 28 per cent of cloud businesses are located in German data centres and it is the most popular destination for European cloud companies that have data centre locations outside of their home countries. This strictness of legislation is one of the main reasons why the vast majority of cloud providers headquartered in Germany have data centre locations in Germany. Many German customers consider the risk prohibitive to using cloud services from outside of its borders. This also helps to explain why uptake of private cloud has been the main mode of cloud adoption so far, although this is slowly evolving toward hybrid cloud. Emphasis on private cloud is one reason why, despite the proliferation of smaller and start-up cloud providers, the major incumbents such as T-Systems and Atos, as well as US players like IBM and HP, have significant market share and influence. They already have trusted customer relationships and can help to build private clouds. ‘Trusted Cloud’ is the €100 million German government initiative designed to provide a safe cloud computing for SMEs and the public sector. It addresses security and data protection issues and aims to establish Germany as an attractive destination for cloud computing business.
FRANCE France is the third largest market for cloud services in Europe and, although there is a vibrant community of cloud technology providers and start-ups that have built their businesses using cloud services, large enterprises have for the most part been cautious in their approach to cloud. Things are beginning to change, however. According to a recent survey from IDC, in 2012, 44 per cent of French enterprises have already adopted some kind of cloud service, up from 22 per cent in 2011. A further 24 per cent indicated that they have plans to adopt a cloud service. The steps might be modest, but they are moving increasingly quickly toward cloud. As elsewhere in Europe, French enterprises have a strong preference for keeping their data local. This helps to explain the approach the French government is taking to fostering the development of the local cloud market. Project Andromède is a publicly-funded, €75 million initiative to build a national cloud. Orange and Thales – both major incumbents in the French IT market – have a joint two-thirds stake, offering ‘industrial cloud computing that will place France and Europe in a strong position in a booming market currently dominated by major US companies.’ More broadly, the French government is actively encouraging foreign and inward investment in its technology sector. France is home to many successful international cloud providers. At one end of the spectrum, Orange Business Services, is delivering cloud services from multiple countries across Europe. At the other, BIME, a cloud BI visualisation software company founded in 2007, generates more than 60 per cent of its business from outside France.
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THE NETHERLANDS The Dutch cloud market punches above its weight when it comes to influence and importance. Although only the sixth largest market in Europe for cloud services, Amsterdam in particular is the most attractive location for US-based cloud companies to locate service delivery. 36 per cent of US cloud providers deliver services from data centres in Amsterdam. Global internet exchanges and peering points offer technology incentives, but business conditions are also a significant influencer, widely spoke English, relatively unrestrictive legislation and a Continental location. The cloud player density in the Netherlands results in interesting cross-fertilisation and new ways of working — for example, Clustrix, a scale-out SQL database provider, leverages GoGrid’s cloud services to deliver its own Database-as-a-Service (DBaaS) to European customers. It isn’t only about the US players basing themselves in the Netherlands. Research by The METISfiles highlights a partial list of 140 cloud companies based in the Netherlands.10 Of those 77 per cent are SaaS players of some description – a testament to the long history of enterprise applications development in the Netherlands. Although there are fewer IaaS providers emerging from the local market, several, such as IASO and Greenclouds, are successfully expanding beyond the Netherlands to serve customers elsewhere in Europe and beyond.
SWITZERLAND The Swiss market, although comparatively small by size, is becoming an increasingly interesting location for cloud providers. With a high degree of virtualisation, the majority of local businesses are positive towards private cloud, particulary with regards to data location. To this point, there has been a high concentration of Swiss cloud providers offering services to Swiss customers. Recent changes to corporate tax laws, however, are attracting a number of large multinational organisations, to relocate regional headquarters activity there. In the vein of delivering cloud services from more stringent regulatory regimes to less stringent ones, Switzerland is also proving an appealing location. The country’s Federal Act on Data protection is in fact based on the Federal Constitution. The security this offers is particularly important to industries that deal with sensitive data, such as financial services and pharmaceuticals, which are both sectors with a strong presence in Switzerland. The country is also benefitting from EU-funded initiatives to foster entrepreneurship and cloud development. The ICCLab at Zurich University of Applied Sciences is implementing FI-WARE, the technology foundation phase of the of the European Commission’s €600 million Future Internet Public-Private Partnership (FI-PPP). FI-WARE will offer cloud computing capacity to support proofs of concept developed within the FI-PPP program as well as to academic institutions and private-sector entrepreneurs.
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
In May, it was reported that the Eurozone as a whole contracted for six straight quarters at the start of 2013.11 Despite this, market conditions for cloud services – IaaS, PaaS, or SaaS – across Europe are good. Pressures on enterprise customers to ‘do more with less’ are increasing the appeal of cloud alternatives for new business requirements and, increasingly, for supporting legacy IT systems as well. Equally, new start-up businesses are turning to cloud services as a means of accessing largeenterprise functionality without the need for major investments. Capitalising on this growing opportunity, however, requires a clear understanding and assessment of several key factors. These factors influence decisions both on selecting markets to pursue and determining the most appropriate locations for service delivery.
BARRIERS TO ENTRY We have discussed extensively in this white paper, the market for cloud services in Europe is made up of a distinct set of country markets that, though they have many similarities, each display their own characteristics and preferences. These variances by country – whether in language, business culture, or regulatory environment – effectively create barriers to entry for new players from outside. This is both an opportunity for European cloud providers to exploit and a potential obstacle. As we have seen from the strong and growing slate of US-based cloud providers competing in the European market, lack of knowledge has not prevented them from succeeding here. These international service providers typically begin to build business in Europe before having any local service delivery (data centre) capabilities. Then, once they have begun to build business in the region, they select a primary location from which to serve the whole region. Some have even tried to avoid this step completely. Salesforce.com is a notable example. After years of building a customer base in Europe, the company announced that it would have its first data centre in Europe operational in 2014. Amazon Web Services delivers public cloud services from its data centre in Ireland. European cloud providers, by contrast, tend to base service delivery in their home country. While this is usually a huge advantage in serving local customers, it does not necessarily facilitate expansion elsewhere in Europe. Whether American or European, the vast majority of cloud providers are discovering that if they are targeting a business-to-business or enterprise market, customers have a strong preference, if not requirement, to have data in cloud services hosted locally.
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LEGISLATION AND GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION Long-standing buying behaviour and cultural preferences are likely to remain strong features of markets across Europe, but regulation and legislation represent the strongest factors limiting crossborder competition and service delivery. The European Union, at the behest of commissioner Neelie Kroes, is proposing legislation that will harmonise data privacy and related regulations across Europe. She is also leading efforts to establish standards and certifications for cloud services.12 Although these factors are likely to result in a significant reduction of barriers between EU country markets, we believe that these initiatives are unlikely to have any significant impact in the near to medium term. We further believe that anyone building growth and expansion plans in Europe for the next two to five years should assume that current conditions will apply. Meanwhile, national governments will continue to try to influence the development of the cloud industry, both directly and indirectly – they have a clear vested interest in generating economic growth. The success of these initiatives will vary, but market forces are still likely to be stronger determinants of how the industry grows and matures in the region.
RECOMMENDATIONS So what does this all mean for European cloud providers? While there is certainly not one answer for all players, we believe there are several ‘levers’ that cloud providers must consider as they plan for growth: Distinguish between target markets and service delivery locations Cloud services are something of a paradox – although users may perceive them to be anywhere and everywhere, they are ultimately tied to physical data centres in specific locations. While there is a high degree of overlap between targeting potential market opportunities and potential locations for service delivery, the two are not the same. From a purely technological point of view, geography and latency may require only one location for service delivery across Europe. From a business perspective, however, responding to demands from customers to keep their data local may dictate a very different map of service delivery locations. Take a broad view of evaluating potential markets As the American cloud companies demonstrate, it pays to have ambition. There is ample opportunity in Europe to support a growing base of all variety of cloud providers. Yet this is ultimately a global game, and near-term opportunity exists on other regions as well. Some of the most dynamic and fast-growing cloud companies coming from Europe are looking around the world for their best opportunities, not just next door. Look for communities of interest There is clearly a strong link between cloud technology and service providers and companies that leverage cloud to deliver their core business. Equinix’s experience shows that both groups find significant advantages to being collocated in the same data centres. Likewise, as the cloud industry develops and matures, we see an increasing number of examples like Clustrix and GoGrid, where complementary cloud providers work with each other to deliver their end services. As these interrelationships increase, so will the importance of being where the other key actors in the cloud community are located. Find a good partner With a fast-growing industry and ever-increasing numbers of providers from all backgrounds entering and exiting the market, one thing is certain: there will be change. Change brings as much risk as it does opportunity. Choosing partners that can help to support and promote development plans that capitalise on global opportunities can help to smooth the path. Finding one that also has first-hand knowledge of local markets can save valuable time and investment.
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REFERENCES AND SOURCES IDC Research, report: “Quantitative Estimates of the Demand for Cloud Computing in Europe and the Likely Barriers to Uptake”, July 2012.
1
IDC Research, report: “Quantitative Estimates of the Demand for Cloud Computing in Europe and the Likely Barriers to Uptake”, July 2012.
2
Gartner, report: “Forecast Overview: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2011-2016, 2Q12 Update”, February 2013.
3
IDC Research, report: “Quantitative Estimates of the Demand for Cloud Computing in Europe and the Likely Barriers to Uptake”, July 2012.
4
Gartner, report: “Forecast Overview: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2011-2016, 2Q12 Update”, February 2013.
5
451 Group press release: https://451research.com/images/stories/Marketing/press_releases/Cloud_Wave_Release-final.pdf
6
Equinix Marketplace: Note: Although data from Equinix Marketplace does not provide a comprehensive view of the entire set of providers in the market, Marketplace’s scale and coverage across the major economies in Europe make it a useful proxy for understanding regional and country-level trends.
7
Gartner, report: “Forecast Overview: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2011-2016, 2Q12 Update”, February 2013.
8
Cloud Industry Forum, white paper: “Cloud Adoption 2013”
9
The METISfiles: http://www.themetisfiles.com/2012/12/the-dutch-public-cloudscape/
10
Gartner, report: Forecast Overview: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2011-2016, 2Q12 Update, August 2012, Gartner
11
CNBC new report: www.cnbc.com/id/100738160
12
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