Market Realities
Market Realities – First 45 Days 20 vs 21
Market Realities – February 2021 Update
Sales Summary 1st 45 Days Units Closed 1st 45 in 20
Price Red
% Price Red
Cherokee 383
155
40.5% 342 (-11.9%) 53
15.5%
Cobb
832
336
40.4% 725 (-14.8%) 171
23.5%
Dekalb
662
240
36.3% 586 (-13%)
145
24.7%
Fulton
1066
440
41.3% 918 (-16.1%) 272
29.6%
Forsyth
322
149
46.3% 298 (-8.1%)
21.1%
432
40.3% 930 (-15.2%) 145
Gwinnett 1071
Units Closed 1st 45 in 21
Price Red % Price Red
63
15.6%
Market Realities
In the Last 45 Days – 6 Core Counties • •
Total of 3,919 SF Det Sales 343 were New Construction – 8.8% of the Market (FMLS only) • 3576 were Resale Properties • Of those 3576 Resale Sales, 1207 of them Closed at a price above Original List Price (33.8%)
1st 45 Days in 21 % Over list
Cherokee Cobb Dekalb Fulton Forsyth Gwinnett
34.4% 38.2% 32.7% 28.3% 36.8% 41%
Market Realities
Key Takeaways: • • •
Significant decrease YoY in the number of homes having to reduce their List price in order to go under contract Total number of homes closed in the 1st 45 days of 2021 compared to 2020 is down approximately 13% in the 6 core counties with the greatest drop occurring in Fulton. Over a 1/3 of the Resale SF Detached homes in the 6 Core County area sold at a price above Original List price with Gwinnett leading the way at 41%
Market Realities
Median Sales Price Comparison Jan 2021 Median Sale Price
Dec 2020 Median Sale Price
% Change MoM
Jan 2020 Median Sale Price
% Change YoY
Cherokee $330,000
330,000
0%
276,000
19.6%
Cobb
$321,450
325,000
-1.1%
275,000
16.9%
Dekalb
$303,210
$310,000
-2.2%
$239,900
26.4%
Fulton
$348,000
$347,000
.2%
$293,250
18.7%
Forsyth
$390,000
$402,000
-3%
355,740
9.6%
Gwinnett $294,000
$290,000
1.4%
$259,000
13.5%
EXISTING Home Prices
Y-O-Y by region
19.0% 12.9%
U.S.
14.2%
13.7% 11.3%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West NAR
% Change in Sales from last year by Price Range
93.6% 76.3% 64.6%
36.0% 5.7% -15.3%
%
$0-100K -15.3%
$100-250K 5.7%
$250-500K 36.0%
$500-750K 64.6%
$750K-1M 76.3%
$1M+ 93.6% NAR
Case Shiller
9.1%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite
8.0% 6.6% 5.3%
2.8%
Dec
3.1%
Jan 2020
3.5%
Feb
3.9%
4.0%
Mar
Apr
4.1%
3.6%
3.5%
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov S&P Case Shiller
Peak Index July 2007 – 136.4 Lowest Index point after recession occurred March 2012 – 82.5 Index as of November 2020 – 167.1 Translation – Since the bottom of the downturn homes have appreciated approximately 9.4% on an annual basis in the Atlanta MSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATXRNSA
2021 Home Price Forecaster National Association of Realtors Zelman & Associates realtor.com Freddie Mac Mortgage Bankers Association Fannie Mae CoreLogic
Average of all seven
Projection 6% 6% 5.7% 5.3% 5.1% 4.2% 2.9%
5%
New Market Realities
Key Takeaways: • • • •
MoM appreciation across 6 core counties relatively flat suggesting an easing in what has been robust price increases over the last 9 months Significant Median SP YoY across all counties with Dekalb leading the way at 26.4% Result of these Median increases is a combination of price appreciation and selling more homes in the upper price ranges AND overall price increases in new home market According to Case-Shiller, Home Prices in Atlanta MSA have appreciated 12.2% in the last 12 months (Nov-Nov)
Market Trends
Sales Comparison – Cherokee County 1st 45 days in 2020
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
340 (88.8%)
137 (40.3%)
28.2
500K - Mil
39 (9.5%)
16 (41%)
46.9
+ Mil
4 (.7%)
2 (50%)
50.5
79.8 145 113.5
1st 45 days in 2021
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
288 (84.2%)
36 (12.5%)
21.5
500K - Mil
47 (13.7%)
15 (32%)
38.4
+ Mil
7 (2%)
2 (28.6%)
94.8
65.7 86.5 120
Market Trends
Month’s Supply, Total Days on Market and Average Price Reduction Summary Jan 2021 – Cherokee County Jan 2020
Month’s Supply 2021
Month’s Supply – 2020
Total DOM – 2021
Total DOM – 2020
Average Price Red – 1st 45 days
Under 1.1 500K 500K - Mil 3.7
3.6
29
63
$15,170
9
87
128
$18,852
+ Mil
21
175
206
$22,500
5.5
Market Trends
Sales Comparison – Cobb County 1st 45 days in 2020
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
702 (84.4%)
284 (40.5 %)
24.2
500K - Mil
113 (13.6%)
46 (40.7%)
43.3
+ Mil
17 (2%)
7 (41.2%)
71
86.4 122.6 162.8
1st 45 days in 2021
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
586 (80.8%)
117 (20%)
13
500K - Mil
123 (17%)
47 (38.2%)
17.3
+ Mil
16 (2.2%)
7 (43.8%)
90.8
52.9 89.6 147.3
Market Trends
Month’s Supply, Total Days on Market and Average Price Reduction Summary Jan 2021 – Cobb County Jan 2021
Month’s Supply 2021
Month’s Supply – 2020
Total DOM – 2021
Total DOM – 2020
Average Price Red – 1st 45 days
Under .9 500K 500K - Mil 1.8
2.2
25
63
$16,490
6.5
57
106
$25,881
+ Mil
10.9
166
315
$117,583
6.5
Market Trends
Sales Comparison – Dekalb County 1st 45 days in 2020
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
551 (79.2%)
200 (36.3%)
27.8
500K - Mil
92 (17.6%)
34 (37%)
24.6
+ Mil
19 (3.2%)
6 (31.6%)
33.2
78.5 85.5 108.7
1st 45 days in 2021
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
443 (75.6%)
91 (20.5%)
13.1
500K - Mil
127 (21.6%)
47 (37%)
20.2
+ Mil
16 (2.8%)
7 (43.8%)
24.8
57.7 90.8 72.7
Market Trends
Month’s Supply, Total Days on Market and Average Price Reduction Summary Jan 2020 – Dekalb County Jan 2021
Month’s Supply 2021
Month’s Supply – 2020
Total DOM – 2021
Total DOM – 2020
Average Price Red – 1st 45 days
Under 1.1 500K 500K - Mil 2.3
3.1
30
59
$21,895
4.8
59
72
$37,635
+ Mil
6.9
65
92
$62,286
5.9
Market Trends
Sales Comparison – Fulton County 1st 45 days in 2020
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
751 (70.4%)
285 (37.9%)
30.4
500K - Mil
237 (22.3%)
120 (50.6%)
42.8
+ Mil
78 (7.3%)
35 (44.8%)
70.6
89.5 122.8 149.5
1st 45 days in 2021
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
Under 500K
541 (58%)
126 (29.7%)
14
500K - Mil
278 (32.9%)
102 (32.4%)
24.9
+ Mil
99 (9.1%)
44 (35.1%)
35.1
71.9 79.6 109.6
Market Trends
Month’s Supply, Total Days on Market and Average Price Reduction Summary Jan 2021 – Fulton County Jan 2021
Month’s Supply 2021
Month’s Supply – 2020
Total DOM – 2021
Total DOM – 2020
Average Price Red – 1st 45 days
Under 1.4 500K 500K - Mil 1.6
3
35
65
$17,287
4.9
50
120
$32,429
+ Mil
10.9
90
172
$110,080
5.7
Market Trends
Sales Comparison – Forsyth County 1st 45 days in 2020 Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
92.3 140.8 75
Under 500K
254 (78.8%) 112 (44.1%)
34.6
500K - Mil
67 (20.8%)
37 (55.2%)
65.6
+ Mil
1 (.4%)
1 (100%)
n/a
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Total DOM Reductions
71 125.7 111.8
1st 45 days in 2021 Units Closed
Under 500K
213 (71.4%) 37 (17.4%)
17.8
500K - Mil
76 (25.5%)
22 (28.9%)
25.6
+ Mil
9 (3.1%)
4 (44.4%)
95.8
Market Trends
Month’s Supply, Total Days on Market and Average Price Reduction Summary Jan 2021 – Forsyth County Jan 2021
Month’s Supply 2021
Month’s Supply – 2020
Total DOM – 2021
Total DOM – 2020
Average Price Red – 1st 45 days
Under .7 500K 500K - Mil 1.2
3.1
29
87
$13,501
6.7
54
110
$34,887
+ Mil
44
128
75
$53,775
5
Market Trends
Sales Comparison – Gwinnett County 1st 45 days in 2020
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Under 500K
1016 (94.8%) 411 (40.4%) 38.2
500K - Mil
48 (4.5%)
16 (33.3%)
51
+ Mil
4 (.7%)
2 (50%)
94
1st 45 days in 2021
Units Closed
Price Reductions
Total DOM – Non Red
Under 500K
849 (91.3%)
113 (13.3%) 14.1
500K - Mil
66 (7.1%)
24 (36.4%)
37
+ Mil
15 (1.6%)
8 (53.3%)
192* (17)
Total DOM Reductions
89.1 161.2 141.1 Total DOM Reductions
52.4 88 298.6
Market Trends
Month’s Supply, Total Days on Market and Average Price Reduction Summary Jan 2021 – Gwinnett County Jan 2021
Month’s Supply 2021
Month’s Supply – 2020
Total DOM – 2021
Total DOM – 2020
Average Price Red – 1st 45 days
Under .6 500K 500K - Mil 2
2.6
21
67
$12,918
9.2
64
97
$33,758
+ Mil
42.5
136
106
$186,200
5.7
Market Realities
Key Takeaways: • It’s a Seller’s Market across all price points • Significant declines in the total number of sales for homes priced under 500K. Primary driver – Lack of inventory • Significant YoY increases in total number of sales between 500K-Mil. Months’ supply significantly decreased in this price point across all 6 counties as a result • If you currently have a listing under 500K and it’s been on the market more than 2 weeks, it’s overpriced, period. • If you currently have a listing between 500K-Million and it’s been on the market more than 3 weeks, it’s probably overpriced.
Market Realities – February Update
Current Inventory & Pending Sales Analysis
Market Trends
Current Inventory Analysis by County - February February
Current Inventory – 2021 (% Difference from PY)
Inventory a year ago
Number of price reductions (% Overpriced)
% of Homes New Construction
Cherokee 333 (-64.5%)
937
58 (31%)
156 (46.8%) 49.3%
Cobb
539 (-64.3%)
1522
109 (20.2%) 131 (24.3%) 39.7%
Dekalb
556 (-58.4%)
1335
154 (27.7%) 100 (18%)
Fulton
1199 (-57%)
2819
333 (27.7%) 232 (19.3%) 17.2%
Forsyth
189 (-76.1%)
790
35 (18.5%)
70 (37%)
42.9%
1933
88 (19.7%)
84 (18.9%)
41.6%
Gwinnett 445 (-76.5%)
% of New Construction with Price Increase
34%
New Market Realities
All Price Points – 6 Core County Area
New Market Realities
Less than 500K – 6 Core County Area
New Market Realities
500K Million – 6 Core County Area
New Market Realities
Above 1 Million – 6 Core County Area
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year By Region 26.6% 21.4%
22.1% 18.9% 13.9%
U.S
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
NAR
Market Realities
Key Takeaways:
Market Realities
Key Takeaways: • • • •
SF Detached Inventory is down 65% through the 1st 2 weeks in February across all price points in the 6 core county area compared to same time period in 2020. Biggest shortage of inventory is for homes priced under $500K with a year over year decline of 71% In January 2021, Buyers pended more inventory than actually came to market at a clip of 110% For homes priced under $500K, Buyers pended almost 150% of the market. At that pace if no new listings come on the market, there will be no inventory in less than 2 months.
New Market Realities
Condo Analysis Areas 21, 23 & 24
Area 21
Area 23,24
Market Realities
Other Trends/Info
Months Supply of Available Inventory Existing Homes
4.5 4.0 3.5
3.6
3.0 2.5 2.0
1.9 1.5 1.0
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
January 2020
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Dec NAR
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
% 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2
NAR
HOUSING SUPPLY
Year-Over-Year
Jan 2020
-11.3%
Feb
Mar
-9.8%
-10.20%
Last 12 Months
Apr
-19.70%
May
-18.8%
June
Jul
-18.2%
Aug
-18.6% -21.1%
Sept
-19.2%
Oct
Nov
Dec
-19.8% -22.0%
-23.0%
NAR
“Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.07 million units, down 16.4% from November and down 23% from one year ago (1.39 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 1.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.3 months in November and down from the 3.0-month figure recorded in December 2019. NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982.
NAR
WHERE WILL LISTINGS COME FROM IN 2021?
TOP THREE REASONS homeowners didn’t put their house on the market in 2020
34%
financial uncertainty
YouGov Survey
life is too uncertain right now
31%
25%
COVID-19 health concerns
“Some people will feel comfortable listing their home during the first half of 2021. Others will want to wait until the vaccines are widely distributed. This suggests more inventory will be for sale in late 2021 and into the spring selling season in 2022.”
Ali Wolf
Chief Economist at Zonda
Consensus View of Work-from-Home 21%
Percent of workers working from home
18% 12% 6%
2019 Actual
2020 Actual (Latest)
2021 F
2022 F
2020 Panel Consensus Forecast 2020 NAR’s Real Estate Forecast Summit
“New home sales activity, both mortgage applications and home sales, ran at a pace considerably ahead of 2019, showing the ongoing strong growth in housing demand and new residential construction.” Joel Kan
MBA’s AVP of Economic and Industry Forecasting
New Home Inventory
months supply Last 12 Months
6.8 6.5
5.5
5.3
5.0 4.3
4.2 3.6
20-Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3.5 Aug
3.6
3.6
Sept
Oct
Nov
4.3
Dec Census
Foot Traffic Last 12 Months Indicator of future sales
60.9
47.3
46.5 41.8
44.2 40.7
39.8
32.9 29.4
13.5 6.8 1.8 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec NAR
New Market Realities
Mortgage Update
Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Four
2021 2Q
2.9
2.7
3.1
3.0
2.92%
2021 3Q
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.0
3.02%
2021 4Q
3.0
2.8
3.4
3.1
3.07%
2022 1Q
3.1
2.9
3.5
3.2
3.17%
Mortgage Rates
2018
- Actual - Projected
Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
2019 2017
2020
2016
2022 2021
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Rate 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2
4
3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4
4
3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2
3
2.8 2.9 2.9
3
3
3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
Where Are They Going?
1/4 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 1/2 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7 2/4
January 2018 – Today Actual Interest Rates
2.9
2021 Q2
3.0
3.0
2021 Q3
2021 Q4
3.1
2022 Q1
Freddie Mac
New Market Realities
So what should you be doing now? • Send the 2021 Residential Real Estate Forecast to your SOI • Take advantage of the Weekly RE Buzz slides • Use the Monthly Social Stats for your market areas • Send out the Quarterly Market Updates • Instalist
New Market Realities
What is HNR going to do? • Continued Magazine and Press Advertising • New TV Campaign beginning March 1st • New Digital ad campaigns beginning March 1st • Broker support and Weekly Sales Meeting focus on activities designed to help you grow your business
New Market Realities
“Your persistent actions are the bridge between mind and matter, between the inner and the outer. Do what you’ve been called to do. Do it with grit, do it with courage, do it with boldness and faith, and do it every day for the rest of your life.”