VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE
JANUARY 2017 — A YEAR IN REVIEW HOLMES REALTY LTD • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 1.877.656.0911
A YEAR IN REVIEW
W
ith the final curtain call for the 2016 market done and behind us, and a brand new
year for real estate ahead, we like to take a moment and look back on this past year in real estate. A year, that was certainly one for the record books! 2016 ended with 10,622 MLS sales in the Greater Victoria Area. These, in total represent over 6.13 billion dollars of real estate sold last year, truly unprecedented growth for our local market. To put things into perspective, the yearly average of the preceding five years (2011-2015) was only 3.2 Billion Dollars.
ANNUAL VOLUME $7
$6
$5
$4
Billions
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$3
$2
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM $1
2016
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
$0 1996
Final Quarter
ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000
a startling lack of inventory. At the end of December, there were only 1,493 active listings available. Of these, only 921 were residential property. Five years ago, we had a December market offering
Nov-2016
Jul-2016
2016
Counterpoint to these remarkable sales figures is
buyers nearly 3000 listings to choose from.
Sep-2016
May-2016
Jan-2016
Mar-2016
2015
Nov-2015
Jul-2015
Sep-2015
May-2015
Jan-2015
Mar-2015
2014
Nov-2014
Jul-2014
Sep-2014
May-2014
Jan-2014
Mar-2014
2013
Nov-2013
Jul-2013
Sep-2013
May-2013
Jan-2013
Mar-2013
2012
Nov-2012
Jul-2012
Sep-2012
May-2012
Jan-2012
Mar-2012
2011
Nov-2011
Jul-2011
Sep-2011
May-2011
Jan-2011
1000
Mar-2011
1500
As we proceed into the new year, we expect prices to remain strong in our local housing market; however, activity (for the time being) will remain sparse until our inventory increases. Demand is strong, particularly in property up to the $750K price point. This is observed by the fact that approximately 25% of December’s sales were above asking. Buyers are facing a challenging and competitive market.
Absorption Rates Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2013-2016)
12
11.2
Months of Inventory
11 10
11.5
9.3
10.6
9
9.6
9.3
9.0
8
8.4
3
7.2
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.6
6.4
6.6
6.5
6.1
5.6
6.0
5.8
5.0
3.9 4.1
4.5
3.7
2
3.3
2.2 2.0 1.9
4.0
4.0
3.8
1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 December
November
October
2016
4.3
September
2015
August
July
2014
June
2013
2.6 May
April
March
February
January
1
7.7
8.3
5 4
7.8
9.2
7.9
7 6
10.5
11.9
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached December 2016
3.50
3.04 3.00
Months of Inventory
2.70 2.50
2.00
2.00
1.98
1.71 1.50
1.17 1.00
0.98
1.00
0.85
0.96
0.83 0.63
0.64
0.58
0.50
0.34
0.00
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
December 2016
December 2016
11
6.00
5.00
4.40
4.50
5.00
3.50
3.00
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.43 1.20
1.20
1.00
0.00
3.00
2.10 2.00
1.36
0.48
0.43 0.00
4.00
1.00
0.71 0.50
1.15
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
4.00
0.17
0.15
1.02 0.75 0.51 0.27
0.00
0.00
0.99
0.94 0.45
0.65 0.26
HPI or Benchmark (Applies to all tabs) HPI Benchmark
A V
PRICE INCREASES Benchmark Performance over Time Select Date Range:
Area/Property Type
Single Family Benchmark Prices
To Select Multiple Hold CTRL and click
1/20/2010 12:00:00 AM to 12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM
Area
550,000
Victoria REB
HPIArea/Property or Benchmark Select the red marker(s) from the Type all tabs) Selection Tool Matrix on the right(Applies to graphtoyour selection. HPI Benchmark
Core
Jan 2017
Jan 2016
Jan 2015
Jan 2014
Jan 2013
Select Date Range:
A V
Westshore Jan 2012
Jan 2010
500,000
Jan 2011
Benchmark ($)
600,000
Benchmark Performance over Time
1/20/2010 12:00:00 AM to 12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM
Peninsula
Area/Property Typ
To Select Multiple Gulf Islands Hold CTRL and clic
Victoria REB
Townhouse Benchmark Prices Single Family - All 500,000
Malahat & Area
Area
450,000
Victoria REB
HPIArea/Property or Benchmark Select the red marker(s) from the Type (Applies toyour all tabs) Selection Tool Matrix on the right to graph selection. HPI Benchmark
Core
Jan 2017
Jan 2016
Jan 2015
Jan 2014
Jan 2013
Select Date Range:
Benchmark Performance over Time
1/20/2010 12:00:00 AM to 12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM
Malahat & Area
360,000 Source: Victoria Real Estate Board Benchmark ($)
Peninsula
Area/Property Typ
To Select Multiple Gulf Islands Hold CTRL and clic
Victoria REB Condominium Benchmark Prices Townhouse
340,000
Area
320,000
Victoria REB
Select the red marker(s) from the Area/Property Type Selection Tool Matrix on the right to graph your selection.
300,000
Core
Jan 2017
Jan 2016
Jan 2015
Jan 2014
Jan 2013
Westshore Jan 2012
Jan 2011
Jan 2010
280,000
Victoria REB
2016 ended with the benchmark value of a single family home at $758,500.
Peninsula Gulf Islands
Condo Apartment
Source: Victoria Real Estate Board
A V
Westshore Jan 2012
Jan 2010
400,000
Jan 2011
Benchmark ($)
Source: Victoria Real Estate Board
Com-
pare this to 2015’s year-end benchmark of $613,600 and you have a 23.6% increase is sale prices over only a 12 month period.
Malahat & Area
This past Tuesday, BC Assessment posted the 2016 Property Assessments. I’m sure many home owners will be shocked by the significant increase in assessed value from 2015. Here in the capital, depending on the neighbourhood, home owners have seen anywhere from a 7% to almost a 32% increase. In an upward trending market, assessed values are by no means accurate estimate of a home’s true worth.
October this year past also saw the Federal Government make significant changes to the mortgage requirements in a move to ensure buyers aren’t taking on larger debt loads than they can afford. These changes primarily impacted first time home buyers significantly reducing the amounts they are able to qualify for.
It’s easy to be intimidated by Victoria’s hot market! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask me about my strategies designed to protect sellers in a market with nowhere to go. I’d love to hear from you! Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9
250-656-0911 ReachUs@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L1X9 Canada Phone: 250-656-0911 Fax: 250-656-2435 Toll Free: 1-877-656-0911 ReachUs@holmesrealty.com www.HolmesRealty.com
The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy. This publication is protected by international copyright Š 2017 Holmes Realty Ltd.