Holmes Realty - Victoria Real Estate - Quarterly Update - 2016 Q4

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE

JANUARY 2017 — A YEAR IN REVIEW HOLMES REALTY LTD • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 1.877.656.0911

A YEAR IN REVIEW

W

ith the final curtain call for the 2016 market done and behind us, and a brand new

year for real estate ahead, we like to take a moment and look back on this past year in real estate. A year, that was certainly one for the record books!

2016 ended with 10,622 MLS sales in the Greater Victoria Area. These, in total represent over 6.13 billion dollars of real estate sold last year, truly unprecedented growth for our local market. To put things into perspective, the yearly average of the preceding five years (2011-2015) was only 3.2 Billion Dollars.

ANNUAL VOLUME $7

$6

$5

$4

Billions

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$3

$2

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM $1

2016

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

$0 1996

Final Quarter

ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

a startling lack of inventory. At the end of December, there were only 1,493 active listings available.

Of these, only 921 were residential property. Five years ago, we had a December market offering

Nov-2016

Jul-2016

2016

Counterpoint to these remarkable sales figures is

buyers nearly 3000 listings to choose from.

Sep-2016

May-2016

Jan-2016

Mar-2016

2015

Nov-2015

Jul-2015

Sep-2015

May-2015

Jan-2015

Mar-2015

2014

Nov-2014

Jul-2014

Sep-2014

May-2014

Jan-2014

Mar-2014

2013

Nov-2013

Jul-2013

Sep-2013

May-2013

Jan-2013

Mar-2013

2012

Nov-2012

Jul-2012

Sep-2012

May-2012

Jan-2012

Mar-2012

2011

Nov-2011

Jul-2011

Sep-2011

May-2011

Jan-2011

1000

Mar-2011

1500

As we proceed into the new year, we expect prices to remain strong in our local housing market; however, activity (for the time being) will remain sparse until our inventory increases. Demand is strong, particularly in property up to the $750K price point. This is observed by the fact that approximately 25% of December’s sales were above asking. Buyers are facing a challenging and competitive market.

Absorption Rates Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2013-2016)

12

11.2

Months of Inventory

11 10

11.5

9.3

10.6

9

9.6

9.3

9.0

8

8.4

3

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.6

6.4

6.6

6.5

6.1

5.6

6.0

5.8

5.0

3.9 4.1

4.5

3.7

2

3.3

2.2 2.0 1.9

4.0

4.0

3.8

1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 December

November

October

2016

4.3

September

2015

August

July

2014

June

2013

2.6 May

April

March

February

January

1

7.7

8.3

5 4

7.8

9.2

7.9

7 6

10.5

11.9

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached December 2016

3.50

3.04 3.00

Months of Inventory

2.70 2.50

2.00

2.00

1.98

1.71 1.50

1.17 1.00

0.98

1.00

0.85

0.96

0.83 0.63

0.64

0.58

0.50

0.34

0.00

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

December 2016

December 2016

11

6.00

5.00

4.40

4.50

5.00

3.50

3.00

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.43 1.20

1.20

1.00

0.00

3.00

2.10 2.00

1.36

0.48

0.43 0.00

4.00

1.00

0.71 0.50

1.15

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

4.00

0.17

0.15

1.02 0.75 0.51 0.27

0.00

0.00

0.99

0.94 0.45

0.65 0.26

HPI or Benchmark (Applies to all tabs) HPI Benchmark

A V

PRICE INCREASES Benchmark Performance over Time Select Date Range:

Area/Property Type

Single Family Benchmark Prices

To Select Multiple Hold CTRL and click

1/20/2010 12:00:00 AM to 12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM

Area

550,000

Victoria REB

HPIArea/Property or Benchmark Select the red marker(s) from the Type all tabs) Selection Tool Matrix on the right(Applies to graphtoyour selection.

HPI Benchmark

Core

Jan 2017

Jan 2016

Jan 2015

Jan 2014

Jan 2013

Select Date Range:

A V

Westshore Jan 2012

Jan 2010

500,000

Jan 2011

Benchmark ($)

600,000

Benchmark Performance over Time

1/20/2010 12:00:00 AM to 12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM

Peninsula

Area/Property Typ

To Select Multiple Gulf Islands Hold CTRL and clic

Victoria REB

Townhouse Benchmark Prices Single Family - All 500,000

Malahat & Area

Area

450,000

Victoria REB

HPIArea/Property or Benchmark Select the red marker(s) from the Type (Applies toyour all tabs) Selection Tool Matrix on the right to graph selection.

HPI Benchmark

Core

Jan 2017

Jan 2016

Jan 2015

Jan 2014

Jan 2013

Select Date Range:

Benchmark Performance over Time

1/20/2010 12:00:00 AM to 12/1/2016 12:00:00 AM

Malahat & Area

360,000 Source: Victoria Real Estate Board Benchmark ($)

Peninsula

Area/Property Typ

To Select Multiple Gulf Islands Hold CTRL and clic

Victoria REB Condominium Benchmark Prices Townhouse

340,000

Area

320,000

Victoria REB

Select the red marker(s) from the Area/Property Type Selection Tool Matrix on the right to graph your selection.

300,000

Core

Jan 2017

Jan 2016

Jan 2015

Jan 2014

Jan 2013

Westshore Jan 2012

Jan 2011

Jan 2010

280,000

Victoria REB

2016 ended with the benchmark value of a single family home at $758,500.

Peninsula Gulf Islands

Condo Apartment

Source: Victoria Real Estate Board

A V

Westshore Jan 2012

Jan 2010

400,000

Jan 2011

Benchmark ($)

Source: Victoria Real Estate Board

Com-

pare this to 2015’s year-end benchmark of $613,600 and you have a 23.6% increase is sale prices over only a 12 month period.

Malahat & Area

This past Tuesday, BC Assessment posted the 2016 Property Assessments. I’m sure many home owners will be shocked by the significant increase in assessed value from 2015. Here in the capital, depending on the neighbourhood, home owners have seen anywhere from a 7% to almost a 32% increase. In an upward trending market, assessed values are by no means accurate estimate of a home’s true worth.

October this year past also saw the Federal Government make significant changes to the mortgage requirements in a move to ensure buyers aren’t taking on larger debt loads than they can afford. These changes primarily impacted first time home buyers significantly reducing the amounts they are able to qualify for.

It’s easy to be intimidated by Victoria’s hot market!

If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask me about my strategies designed to protect sellers in a market with nowhere to go.

I’d love to hear from you!

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9

250-656-0911 ReachUs@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L1X9 Canada Phone: 250-656-0911 Fax: 250-656-2435 Toll Free: 1-877-656-0911 ReachUs@holmesrealty.com www.HolmesRealty.com

The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright Š 2017 Holmes Realty Ltd.