VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2018 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
2018 SECOND QUARTER The second quarter of 2018 has brought unpredictability with sales slowing and the listing inventory rising throughout the last three months. The number of Active listings has risen to 2,595 at the end of Q2, up from 1,915 at the end of the same quarter in 2017. Sales at the end of this past quarter were markedly lower than the same period last year. Q2 - 2017 had 2,899 total MLS sales. Compared to 2,257 in 2018, this represents a 22% drop in sales numbers. This drop, coupled with a 35% rise in listing inventory is certainly a strong indication of the market transitioning away from being a seller’s market. The total sales volume at the end of Q2 was 2.68 Billion dollars of real estate transacted. With this figure being close to half of last years total final sales volume. While our sales numbers are down, we have not experienced any significant correction to the benchmark pricing in the Greater Victoria Area. The benchmark for single family homes in Victoria continued to rise through the quarter irrespective of measures by the Bank of Canada and the Provincial Government to cool our hot market. This isn’t to say that our market hasn’t been impacted by these measures however.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
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MICHELE HOLMES & DEBRA BARTLETT
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
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$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
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$3
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$1
Second Quarter
2018
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ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000
Jun-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
2015
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
2014
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
2013
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
Dec-2013
Jun-2013
Aug-2013
Apr-2013
2011 2012
Feb-2013
Oct-2012
Dec-2012
Jun-2012
Aug-2012
Apr-2012
Feb-2012
Oct-2011
Dec-2011
Jun-2011
1000
Aug-2011
1500
2018
During 2016 through 2017 there was a period where active listing numbers somewhat floundered in the Capital Region, this year has seen our seasonal inventory growth return to pre-2016 patterns. This is optimistic news for buyers who have, for the last few years, been faced with a market starved of listings resulting in frequent competition between buyers.
Overall, benchmark prices in the Greater Victoria area continued to climb through Q2 of this year; however, this growth is not uniform across all price ranges. The vast majority of sales in the Victoria are between the 600K to 900K price range. The popularity of property in this price range remains very strong. Well-priced homes in great condition command a great deal of interest in this price range. While we’ve seen the trend of multiple offers diminish through this quarter, we have on several occasions seen full price offers not long after homes have been listed.
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2018 to Q2-2018 — Greater Victoria Area)
PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices $745,100
Townhouse Benchmark Prices $594,300
Condominium Benchmark Prices
$485,600
Benchmark prices of both Single Family Dwellings and Townhouses rose through the quarter by approximately 3% and 4.5% respectively.
Condo-
miniums however only saw a 1.3% rise in benchmark pricing relative to last quarter.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE VICTORIA CORE
Q2 saw a significant change to the frequency of multiple offer situations and
PENINSULA
WESTSHORE
property selling at or above list price. While there was still a strong presence of such sales in Victoria Core, their numbers are in decline on the Peninsula and in the Westshore neighbourhoods. Westshore experienced the most pronounced shift with the number of at or above list price sales dropping from 54% in Q1 to only 14% in Q2. Victoria dropped from 57% of sales being at or above list in Q1 to 47% in Q2 and the Peninsula saw a drop from 46% to 42% quarter to quarter.
Throughout Q2, the absorption rate rose from 3.1 months to 4.0 months of available inventory. Traditionally, when the absorption rates are less than five months, it is considered a Seller’s Market. However, this is an aggregated rate, and when you examine absorption rates individually by neighbourhood or price range, you see the variability that exists in our micro-markets based on the style and location of property.
Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2015-2018)
Months of Inventory
8 7 7.2
6
7.3
7.1 6.4
6.6
5.6
5 3.9
4.1 3.7
4 3 2
3.9
4.0
5.0 4.5
3.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.3 2.1
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
December
November
October
2018
1.9
September
2017
1.9
August
July
2016
June
May
April
March
February
January
2015
2.4
2.5 2.0
1
4.0 3.8
3.3
2.4
4.0
2.6 2.3
2.5
4.3
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2018
8.00
7.00
7.00
Months of Inventory
6.08 6.00
5.26 5.00
4.64 4.32 3.94
3.90
4.00
3.38 3.00
2.85
2.67 2.34
2.16
2.11
2.00
1.64 1.09
1.00
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums June 2018
June 2018
42.00
6.00
9.00
8.31 8.00
4.00
4.00
3.77
3.75
3.00
3.00
2.46 2.00
2.63 2.00
1.93 1.62 1.37
1.74
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
5.00 7.00
6.00
4.80
5.00
4.13 4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
2.59
2.03 1.50 1.12
0.00
2.89
2.63
1.00
0.00
4.04
0.00
1.04
1.24
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Metchosin Absorption Rates by Price Range
Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
June 2018
33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
9
30.75
8.57
8 7
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
June 2018
1.20 Under $600K
1.66 $600K to $800K
3.15 $800K to $1M
6 5 4 3
2.00
2
4.88
2.25
1
$1M to $2M
0
Over $2M
0.00 Under $600K
We are experiencing a significant softening
homes valued between one and two million
14
dollars at the end of Q2 - 2018. When we
12
15.69
15
Months of Inventory
13
11 10 9 8 7 6
4.11
5 4
If you would like more information about
3
your neighbourhood — Please give us a call
1
2
0
or email.
0.00
0.00
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
Colwood Absorption Rates by Price Range
1.29 $800K to $1M
$1M to $2M
Over $2M
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range
June 2018
June 2018
18
11
9.82
10
Over $2M
June 2018
16
in the three main regions of Victoria.
$1M to $2M
17
were 5.7 months of inventory available for
just over 21 months of inventory available
$800K to $1M
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
in the luxury segment of the market. There
look at the two million plus market, there are
NO SALES 0.00 $600K to $800K
16.50
17 16 15
9
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
14 8
6.60
7 6 5 4 3 2
1.85
2.22
12 11 10 9 8
6.27
7 6 5 4 3
3.00
2
1 0
13
NO SALES 0.00
NO SALES Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $2M
Over $2M
1.96
1.38
1 0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $2M
Over $2M
Michele Holmes & Debra Bartlett
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask us about our award winning systems. Deanna
Clayton
David
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250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
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