Paul Macris - Quarterly Market Report - 2018-Q2

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2018 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW PAUL MACRIS • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911

2018 SECOND QUARTER The second quarter of 2018 has brought unpredictability with sales slowing and the listing inventory rising throughout the last three months. The number of Active listings has risen to 2,595 at the end of Q2, up from 1,915 at the end of the same quarter in 2017. Sales at the end of this past quarter were markedly lower than the same period last year. Q2 - 2017 had 2,899 total MLS sales.

Compared to 2,257 in 2018, this represents a 22% drop in sales numbers. This drop, coupled with a 35% rise in listing inventory is certainly a strong indication of the market transitioning away from being a seller’s market.

The total sales volume at the end of Q2 was 2.68 Billion dollars of real estate transacted. With this figure being close to half of last years total final sales volume.

While our sales numbers are down, we have not experienced any significant correction to the benchmark pricing in the Greater Victoria Area. The benchmark for single family homes in Victoria continued to rise through the quarter irrespective of measures by the Bank of Canada and the Provincial Government to cool our hot market.

This isn’t to say that our market hasn’t been impacted by these measures however.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

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PAUL MACRIS

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$5

$4

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$6

$3

$2

$1

Second Quarter

2018

$0

ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Jun-2018

Apr-2018

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

Apr-2017

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

Apr-2016

2015

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

Apr-2015

2014

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

Apr-2014

2013

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

Dec-2013

Jun-2013

Aug-2013

Apr-2013

2011 2012

Feb-2013

Oct-2012

Dec-2012

Jun-2012

Aug-2012

Apr-2012

Feb-2012

Oct-2011

Dec-2011

Jun-2011

1000

Aug-2011

1500

2018

During 2016 through 2017 there was a period where active listing numbers somewhat floundered in the Capital Region, this year has seen our seasonal inventory growth return to pre-2016 patterns. This is optimistic news for buyers who have, for the last few years, been faced with a market starved of listings resulting in frequent competition between buyers.

Overall, benchmark prices in the Greater Victoria area continued to climb through Q2 of this year; however, this growth is not uniform across all price ranges.

The vast majority of sales in the Victoria are between the 600K to 900K price range. The popularity of property in this price range remains very strong. Well-priced homes in great condition command a great deal of interest in this price range. While we’ve seen the trend of multiple offers diminish through this quarter, we have on several occasions seen full price offers not long after homes have been listed.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2018 to Q2-2018 — Greater Victoria Area)

PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices $745,100

Townhouse Benchmark Prices $594,300

Condominium Benchmark Prices

$485,600

Benchmark prices of both Single Family Dwellings and Townhouses rose through the quarter by approximately 3% and 4.5% respectively.

Condo-

miniums however only saw a 1.3% rise in benchmark pricing relative to last quarter.

SALES OVER LIST PRICE VICTORIA CORE

Q2 saw a significant change to the frequency of multiple offer situations and

PENINSULA

WESTSHORE

property selling at or above list price.

While there was still a strong presence of such sales in Victoria Core, their numbers are in decline on the Peninsula and in the Westshore neighbourhoods.

Westshore experienced the most pronounced shift with the number of at or above list price sales dropping from 54% in Q1 to only 14% in Q2. Victoria dropped from 57% of sales being at or above list in Q1 to 47% in Q2 and the Peninsula saw a drop from 46% to 42% quarter to quarter.

Throughout Q2, the absorption rate rose from 3.1 months to 4.0 months of available inventory. Traditionally, when the absorption rates are less than five months, it is considered a Seller’s Market. However, this is an aggregated rate, and when you examine absorption rates individually by neighbourhood or price range, you see the variability that exists in our micro-markets based on the style and location of property.

Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2015-2018)

Months of Inventory

8 7 7.2

6

7.3

7.1 6.4

6.6

5.6

5 3.9

4.1 3.7

4 3 2

3.9

4.0

5.0 4.5

3.4

2.5

2.3

2.7

3.1

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.3 2.1

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.0

December

November

October

2018

1.9

September

2017

1.9

August

July

2016

June

May

April

March

February

January

2015

2.4

2.5 2.0

1

4.0 3.8

3.3

2.4

4.0

2.6 2.3

2.5

4.3

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2018

8.00

7.00

7.00

Months of Inventory

6.08 6.00

5.26 5.00

4.64 4.32 3.94

3.90

4.00

3.38 3.00

2.85

2.67 2.34

2.16

2.11

2.00

1.64 1.09

1.00

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums June 2018

June 2018

42.00

6.00

9.00

8.31 8.00

4.00

4.00

3.77

3.75

3.00

3.00

2.46 2.00

2.63 2.00

1.93 1.62 1.37

1.74

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

5.00 7.00

6.00

4.80

5.00

4.13 4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

2.59

2.03 1.50 1.12

0.00

2.89

2.63

1.00

0.00

4.04

0.00

1.04

1.24

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Metchosin Absorption Rates by Price Range

Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

June 2018

33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

9

30.75

8.57

8 7

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

June 2018

1.20 Under $600K

1.66 $600K to $800K

3.15 $800K to $1M

6 5 4 3

2.00

2

4.88

2.25

1

$1M to $2M

0

Over $2M

0.00 Under $600K

We are experiencing a significant softening

homes valued between one and two million

14

dollars at the end of Q2 - 2018. When we

12

15.69

15

Months of Inventory

13

11 10 9 8 7 6

4.11

5 4

If you would like more information about

3

your neighbourhood — Please give us a call

1

2

0

or email.

0.00

0.00

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

Colwood Absorption Rates by Price Range

1.29 $800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range

June 2018

June 2018

18

11

9.82

10

Over $2M

June 2018

16

in the three main regions of Victoria.

$1M to $2M

17

were 5.7 months of inventory available for

just over 21 months of inventory available

$800K to $1M

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

in the luxury segment of the market. There

look at the two million plus market, there are

NO SALES 0.00 $600K to $800K

16.50

17 16 15

9

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

14 8

6.60

7 6 5 4 3 2

1.85

2.22

12 11 10 9 8

6.27

7 6 5 4 3

3.00

2

1 0

13

NO SALES 0.00

NO SALES Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

1.96

1.38

1 0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

It’s easy to be intimidated by Victoria’s hot market!

If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask me about my strategies designed to protect sellers in a market with nowhere to go.

I’d love to hear from you!

PAUL MACRIS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9

250-656-0911 Paul.Macris@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

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