VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2021 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW HOLMES REALTY • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
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2021 SECOND QUARTER 2021’s Second Quarter has once again remained an extraordinary period for Real Estate here in the Greater Victoria Area.
This past quarter has continued to be
marked by extreme low inventory and very high overall demand. While there has been a steady decline in sales over the last three months, Q2 ended with 3,107 sales. Compare this to 2020’s heavily Covid influenced market which only managed some 1,552 sales in Q2. A more realistic comparison would be to Pre-Covid markets. For example, Q2-2019 had 2,284 sales, a 36% increase from 2019 to 2021. The total annual volume as of Q2 is truly remarkable, a fact we had to confirm was in fact accurate! In the first half of 2021, there have been just over 5.05 Billion dollars of sales in the Greater Victoria Area. In only the first half of 2021 we have exceeded the total annual volume of 2018 and 2019. Lack of inventory and intense demand have contributed to strong price support among all our property types and neighbourhoods.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
$7
$6
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$5
$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$3
$2
Second Quarter
$1
2021
$0
Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS
Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)
7 5500
6
5.7
Months of Inventory
5000 4500
5.3
5.1
5.6
4.7
5
5.2
4000 3500
4
4.2
4.3
3.4
3000
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.1
2500
3
4.0
3.6
3.5
2.7
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.7
2.8
2.5
2000
Oct-2019
Dec-2019
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Apr-2019
Feb-2019
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
20191.6 December
2021
2018
2.0
November
2020
2017
October
Feb-2014
2016
September
2019
2.2
August
2018
2.4
July
Oct-2013
2015
1.3 June
Dec-2013
2014
1.3
May
Jun-2013
1.4
April
Aug-2013
2013
March
Apr-2013
1.8
February
Feb-2013
1.9
January
1
Dec-2012
1000
1.5
Dec-2014
2
1500
While the quarter ended with 942 properties having sold in June 2021, there were only 1,375 active residential listings available at the end of the quarter. Less than half from the same period in 2019. The absorption rate through Q2-2021 remained essentially unchanged. Demand for quality, well-priced homes, continues to vastly out-pace supply. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market. Through 2021 we continue to experience an unprecedentedly strong Seller’s Market; however, depending on pricepoints, neighbourhoods and property types, certain homes can see absorptions rates far lower than 1.3 months.
Q2 continued to see demand for high-end homes improve with the absorption rate for property in the 1M to 3M range dropping considerably. Mid-ranged homes 750 to 1M continue to remain in the highest demand. Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 12.2% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the second quarter. The Saanich Peninsula specifically experienced a 13.9% increase in benchmark prices. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $973,000 at the end of Q2. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,063,500 at the end of Q2. The
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q4-2020 to Q1-2021 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
benchmark was $842,900 in Westshore, and $1,058,200 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were only 401 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 80 are priced below $900,000. During the last quarter, very similarly to Q1, 53% of homes sold were over their MLS listed price, and a further 20%
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
sold at their list price. Almost a full three quarters of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price. While multiple, competing offers remained very commonplace through the second quarter, we continue to deal with buyer fatigue. There is a limit to how many offer competitions a buyer is willing to lose before wanting to pause their search and wait for the market to cool.
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
Absorption rates by price range illustrate the incredible demand in the lower price ranges. Property below 2 Million in the Greater VIctoria Area has on average less that a half-month of inventory. Only 0.31 months of inventory for homes between 800K and 1M and 0.34 months of inventory for homes between 600K and 800K. The lack of inventory in the most popular price range is apparent, with houses in the 600K to 800K prices ranges selling almost immediately. Luxury properties continue to follow a similar trend, with property under 3M selling quickly.
Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range June 2021
5
4.31
5
Months of Inventory
4 4 3 3 2
1.26
2 1
0.78
1 0
Under $600K
0.34 0.31 0.42 $600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
0.11 $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2021
1.40
1.33 1.15
Months of Inventory
1.20
1.06 1.00
1.00
1.09
1.03
1.03 0.96
0.80
0.79
0.77
0.80
0.57
0.60
0.36
0.40
0.26 0.20
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
June 2021
June 2021
7.00
3.50
3.18
2.00
1.55
1.00
1.50
1.50 1.29
1.27 0.86
0.78
0.83
0.94
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
2.46
2.50
1.50
6.00
6.00
3.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.91
1.60 1.14
0.90
0.75 0.43 0.00
0.12
0.27
0.12
0.27
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range
Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
June 2021
June 2021
6
10
5.40
9.00
9
5
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
8
4
3
2
1 NO SALES PAST 3 MONTHS
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
0.00 0.00
0
0.46 $800K to $1M
0.25
0.67 0.82
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0
NO SALE PAST 3 MONTHS
0.00
0.47 0.36
Under $600K $600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0.79 0.94 $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
0.46 $2M to $3M
Over $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range
At the now half-way point of 2021, the
June 2021
4
market continues to be super heated. This remains an incredible opportunity for Sell-
than ever Buyers need to employ the services of a Realtor who can identify homes that meet their needs immediately, and en-
Months of Inventory
ers to list their homes. However, now more
3.00
3
2
1.50 1.00
1
sure prospective Buyers have a chance to view and write an offer.
0
0.00 Under $600K
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
June 2021
4
2
3.43
4
3
2
1.40
2
1.62 Months of Inventory
3
Months of Inventory
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
June 2021
1.00
1
0.35 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
OR SALES OR SALES 0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.19 0.27
0
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0.23
0.00 Under $600K
$1M to $1.5M
0.60
0.58
1
0
0.35 0.37
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
1
1.14
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market. WE’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU! Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9
250-656-0911 ReachUs@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
This publication is protected by international copyright © 2021 Holmes Realty Ltd.