Michele's Team Quarterly Market Report - Q3 2021

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2021 THIRD QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE’S TEAM • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911

2021 THIRD QUARTER Third quarter 2021 has continued to remain a remarkable period in Real Estate here in the Greater Victoria Area.

This past quarter has continued to see low inventory, high overall demand for single family dwelling housing and rising prices. There has been a steady decline in sales over the last four months, Q3 ended with only 2,427 sales.

Compare this to 2020’s same time period with 2,947 sales in Q3. The demand is there; in fact buyer demand is extremely high.

The total annual volume as of Q3 was once again a testament to the remarkable home prices we are experiencing in the Capital region.

Even with three months left

in 2021, there has been just over 7.17 Billion dollars of sales in the Greater Victoria Area. This figure easily surpasses the 2020 totally end of year record of 6.53 billion dollars. Lack of inventory and intense demand have contributed to strong price support among all our property types and neighbourhoods. 2021 is shaping up to be a record setting year for our housing market here in the Greater Victoria Area.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

$8

MICHELE HOLMES

DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE $7

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$6

$5

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$4

$3

$2

Third Quarter

2021

$1

$0

Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS

Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)

7 5500

6

5.7

Months of Inventory

5000 4500

5.3

5.1

5.6

4.7

5

5.2

4000 3500

4

4.2

4.3

3.4

3000

4.3

4.1

4.7

4.6

4.0

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.1

2500

3

4.0

3.6

3.5

2.7

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.7

2.8

2.5

2000

Oct-2019

Dec-2019

Jun-2019

Aug-2019

Apr-2019

Feb-2019

Oct-2018

Dec-2018

Jun-2018

Aug-2018

Apr-2018

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

Apr-2017

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

Apr-2016

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

Apr-2014

20191.6 December

2021

2018

2.0

November

Feb-2014

2017

2.2

October

2020

1.4 September

2019

1.3

August

2018

2016

July

Oct-2013

2015

1.3

1.3

June

Dec-2013

2014

1.3

May

Jun-2013

1.4

April

Aug-2013

2013

March

Apr-2013

1.8

February

Feb-2013

1.9

January

1

Dec-2012

1000

2.4

1.5

Dec-2014

2

1500

The quarter ended with a total of 761 properties having been sold in September, there were only 1,124 active residential listings available at the end of the quarter. This is the second lowest level of inventory since 2006, second to August of this year which ended with 1120 active listings.

The absorption rate through Q3-2021 had a minor upward change from months of 1.3 to 1.4.

Demand for quality, well-priced homes,

continues to vastly out-pace supply. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market. Through 2021 we continue to experience an unprecedentedly strong Seller’s Market.

This figure is an average and depending on price-points, neighbourhoods and property types, certain homes can see absorption rates far lower than 1.4 months or indeed far higher.

Q3 in the Greater Victoria Area had property over 3M at twelve months of supply. In the 2M to 3M range; however, supply dropped to only 1.75 months! The strongest price range remained with homes priced from 800K to 1.5M with only half a month of supply.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2020 to Q3-2021 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL

BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices

Townhouse Benchmark Prices

Condominium Benchmark Prices

Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 3.1% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the third quarter. The Saanich Peninsula specifically experienced a 5.2% increase in benchmark prices. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $1,013,900 at the end of Q3. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,100,200 at the

SALES OVER LIST PRICE

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

BELOW LIST PRICE

end of Q3. The benchmark was $876,100 in Westshore, and $1,088,600 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were only 337 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 32 are priced below $800,000.

During the last quarter, 48% of homes sold were over their MLS listed price, and a further 17% sold at their list price. Almost two thirds of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price. While multiple, competing offers remained very commonplace through the third quarter, there is a limit to how many offer competitions a buyer is willing to lose before buyer fatigue sets in.

Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Active Listings

Number of Sales

Absorption rates by price range illustrate the incredible demand in the lower price ranges. Property below 1.5 Million in the Greater Victoria Area has on average less that a half-month of inventory. Only 0.34 months of inventory for homes between 800K and 1M and 0.34 months of inventory for homes between 600K and 800K. The lack of inventory in the most popular price range is apparent, with houses in the 600K to 800K price ranges selling almost immediately. Luxury properties continue to follow a similar trend, with property under 3M selling quickly.

Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2021

4

3.20

Months of Inventory

3

3

2

1.29

2

1.02

1

1

0

0.43 0.45 0.34 0.42 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2021

2.50

2.15 2.00

Months of Inventory

2.00

2.00

1.50

1.50

1.33 1.20

1.13

1.26 1.13

1.03

1.00

0.75 0.63

0.55

0.50

0.50

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

September 2021

September 2021

3.50

3.50

3.33

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.18

1.29 1.02

1.00

0.86 0.58

0.68

0.65

2.44

2.50

2.00

1.40

1.50

1.07

1.02

0.90

1.00

0.60

0.39

0.50

0.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

0.00

0.00

0.50

0.00

0.27 0.00

0.27 0.00

0.10

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2021

September 2021

3

13

12.00

12 11

1.17

1.07

0.82

1

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

10

1.95

2

0.41 NO SALES

Under $600K

8 7 6 5 4 3

1.67

2

NO

PAST 3 LISTINGS 0.00 0.00 MONTHS

0

9

$600K to $800K

1 $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

0

0.54 0.50

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.00 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

1.38 1.75 $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

As we move into the final months of 2021,

September 2021

4

it’s important to note that our market his-

3.38

torically starts to slow as we head into the mains an incredible opportunity for Sellers to list their homes.

However, now more

than ever Buyers need to employ the services of a Realtor who can identify homes

3

Months of Inventory

cooler months. Regardless, our market re-

Over $3M

2

1.24 1

that meet their needs immediately, and ensure prospective Buyers have a chance to

0.70 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

view and write an offer.

0

0.00 OR SALES Under $600K

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

0.20 0.27 0.22 $600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

September 2021

September 2021

5

1.88

2

3.82

4

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

4 3 3 2 2

1.11

1 1 0

1

0.42

0.65 0.53 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

0 $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

NO ACTIVE

SALES 0.00 Under $600K

$1M to $1.5M

0.35 0.35

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K

0.86

LISTINGS 0.00 OR SALES $600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Michele Holmes

Debra Bartlett & Erin Mackenzie

Expect the Exceptional

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BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market.

Deanna

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David

IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE WOULD BE HAPPY TO HELP!

250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright © 2021 Holmes Realty Ltd.

Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)

Months of Inventory

7

5.7

6

5.3

5.1

4.7

5

4.7

4.6

4

4.2

4.3

3.4

5.6 5.2 4.3

4.1

4.0 4.0

3.9

3.1

3

4.0 4.1

3.8 3.5

2.7

4.3 4.1

4.2 4.0

3.6

3.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

2

1.5 1.9

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.8

1.4

2.2

2.0 1.6

December

November

October

2021

September

2020

August

2019

July

June

2018

May

April

March

February

January

1

3.9

4.2

Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Active Listings

Number of Sales

Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2018-2021) 1400

Number of Sales

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2018

431

545

688

774

755

708

651

594

533

598

462

375

2019

329

421

640

696

848

740

706

661

616

619

577

402

2020

411

563

608

287

457

808

979

979

989

990

795

631

2021

646

863

1173

1116

1049

942

835

831

761

Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2021

2.50

2.15 2.00

Months of Inventory

2.00

2.00

1.50

1.50

1.33 1.20

1.13 1.00

0.75 0.63 0.50

0.00

0.50

0.55

1.26 1.13

1.03

Absorption Rates - Condominiums September 2021

3.50

3.33

Months of Inventory

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.18

1.29 1.02

1.00

0.86 0.58

0.68

0.65 0.39

0.50

0.00

0.00

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses September 2021

3.50

3.00

Months of Inventory

3.00

2.44

2.50

2.00

1.40

1.50

1.07

1.02

0.90

1.00

0.60 0.50

0.00

0.27 0.00

0.27 0.00

0.10

Absorption Rates - Manufactured Homes September 2021

2.50

2.14

Months of Inventory

2.00

1.50

1.07 1.00

1.13 1.00

0.55 0.50

0.00

Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula September 2021 3

2.15 2.00

2

1.02

1

1.00 1.07

0.55

n/a

0

SINGLE FAMILY

0.00

CONDOS

North Saanich

n/a

0.10

0.27 n/a

TOWNHOMES

Sidney

MANUFACTURED

Central Saanich

Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula September 2021 3

2.15 2.00

2

1

1.02 0.55

0

n/a

0.00

SINGLE FAMILY

n/a

0.10

0.27

CONDOS TOWNHOMES

North Saanich

Sidney

Central Saanich