VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2021 THIRD QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE’S TEAM • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
2021 THIRD QUARTER Third quarter 2021 has continued to remain a remarkable period in Real Estate here in the Greater Victoria Area. This past quarter has continued to see low inventory, high overall demand for single family dwelling housing and rising prices. There has been a steady decline in sales over the last four months, Q3 ended with only 2,427 sales. Compare this to 2020’s same time period with 2,947 sales in Q3. The demand is there; in fact buyer demand is extremely high. The total annual volume as of Q3 was once again a testament to the remarkable home prices we are experiencing in the Capital region.
Even with three months left
in 2021, there has been just over 7.17 Billion dollars of sales in the Greater Victoria Area. This figure easily surpasses the 2020 totally end of year record of 6.53 billion dollars. Lack of inventory and intense demand have contributed to strong price support among all our property types and neighbourhoods. 2021 is shaping up to be a record setting year for our housing market here in the Greater Victoria Area.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
$8
MICHELE HOLMES
DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE $7
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$6
$5
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$4
$3
$2
Third Quarter
2021
$1
$0
Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS
Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)
7 5500
6
5.7
Months of Inventory
5000 4500
5.3
5.1
5.6
4.7
5
5.2
4000 3500
4
4.2
4.3
3.4
3000
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.1
2500
3
4.0
3.6
3.5
2.7
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.7
2.8
2.5
2000
Oct-2019
Dec-2019
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Apr-2019
Feb-2019
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
20191.6 December
2021
2018
2.0
November
Feb-2014
2017
2.2
October
2020
1.4 September
2019
1.3
August
2018
2016
July
Oct-2013
2015
1.3
1.3
June
Dec-2013
2014
1.3
May
Jun-2013
1.4
April
Aug-2013
2013
March
Apr-2013
1.8
February
Feb-2013
1.9
January
1
Dec-2012
1000
2.4
1.5
Dec-2014
2
1500
The quarter ended with a total of 761 properties having been sold in September, there were only 1,124 active residential listings available at the end of the quarter. This is the second lowest level of inventory since 2006, second to August of this year which ended with 1120 active listings. The absorption rate through Q3-2021 had a minor upward change from months of 1.3 to 1.4.
Demand for quality, well-priced homes,
continues to vastly out-pace supply. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market. Through 2021 we continue to experience an unprecedentedly strong Seller’s Market.
This figure is an average and depending on price-points, neighbourhoods and property types, certain homes can see absorption rates far lower than 1.4 months or indeed far higher. Q3 in the Greater Victoria Area had property over 3M at twelve months of supply. In the 2M to 3M range; however, supply dropped to only 1.75 months! The strongest price range remained with homes priced from 800K to 1.5M with only half a month of supply.
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2020 to Q3-2021 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 3.1% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the third quarter. The Saanich Peninsula specifically experienced a 5.2% increase in benchmark prices. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $1,013,900 at the end of Q3. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,100,200 at the
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
end of Q3. The benchmark was $876,100 in Westshore, and $1,088,600 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were only 337 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 32 are priced below $800,000. During the last quarter, 48% of homes sold were over their MLS listed price, and a further 17% sold at their list price. Almost two thirds of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price. While multiple, competing offers remained very commonplace through the third quarter, there is a limit to how many offer competitions a buyer is willing to lose before buyer fatigue sets in.
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
Absorption rates by price range illustrate the incredible demand in the lower price ranges. Property below 1.5 Million in the Greater Victoria Area has on average less that a half-month of inventory. Only 0.34 months of inventory for homes between 800K and 1M and 0.34 months of inventory for homes between 600K and 800K. The lack of inventory in the most popular price range is apparent, with houses in the 600K to 800K price ranges selling almost immediately. Luxury properties continue to follow a similar trend, with property under 3M selling quickly.
Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2021
4
3.20
Months of Inventory
3
3
2
1.29
2
1.02
1
1
0
0.43 0.45 0.34 0.42 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2021
2.50
2.15 2.00
Months of Inventory
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.33 1.20
1.13
1.26 1.13
1.03
1.00
0.75 0.63
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
September 2021
September 2021
3.50
3.50
3.33
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.18
1.29 1.02
1.00
0.86 0.58
0.68
0.65
2.44
2.50
2.00
1.40
1.50
1.07
1.02
0.90
1.00
0.60
0.39
0.50
0.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.27 0.00
0.27 0.00
0.10
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2021
September 2021
3
13
12.00
12 11
1.17
1.07
0.82
1
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
10
1.95
2
0.41 NO SALES
Under $600K
8 7 6 5 4 3
1.67
2
NO
PAST 3 LISTINGS 0.00 0.00 MONTHS
0
9
$600K to $800K
1 $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0
0.54 0.50
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
1.38 1.75 $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range
As we move into the final months of 2021,
September 2021
4
it’s important to note that our market his-
3.38
torically starts to slow as we head into the mains an incredible opportunity for Sellers to list their homes.
However, now more
than ever Buyers need to employ the services of a Realtor who can identify homes
3
Months of Inventory
cooler months. Regardless, our market re-
Over $3M
2
1.24 1
that meet their needs immediately, and ensure prospective Buyers have a chance to
0.70 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
view and write an offer.
0
0.00 OR SALES Under $600K
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
0.20 0.27 0.22 $600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
September 2021
September 2021
5
1.88
2
3.82
4
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
4 3 3 2 2
1.11
1 1 0
1
0.42
0.65 0.53 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0 $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
NO ACTIVE
SALES 0.00 Under $600K
$1M to $1.5M
0.35 0.35
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K
0.86
LISTINGS 0.00 OR SALES $600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Michele Holmes
Debra Bartlett & Erin Mackenzie
Expect the Exceptional
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market.
Deanna
Clayton
David
IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE WOULD BE HAPPY TO HELP!
250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
This publication is protected by international copyright © 2021 Holmes Realty Ltd.
Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)
Months of Inventory
7
5.7
6
5.3
5.1
4.7
5
4.7
4.6
4
4.2
4.3
3.4
5.6 5.2 4.3
4.1
4.0 4.0
3.9
3.1
3
4.0 4.1
3.8 3.5
2.7
4.3 4.1
4.2 4.0
3.6
3.7
2.8
2.5
2.4
2
1.5 1.9
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.8
1.4
2.2
2.0 1.6
December
November
October
2021
September
2020
August
2019
July
June
2018
May
April
March
February
January
1
3.9
4.2
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2018-2021) 1400
Number of Sales
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2018
431
545
688
774
755
708
651
594
533
598
462
375
2019
329
421
640
696
848
740
706
661
616
619
577
402
2020
411
563
608
287
457
808
979
979
989
990
795
631
2021
646
863
1173
1116
1049
942
835
831
761
Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2021
2.50
2.15 2.00
Months of Inventory
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.33 1.20
1.13 1.00
0.75 0.63 0.50
0.00
0.50
0.55
1.26 1.13
1.03
Absorption Rates - Condominiums September 2021
3.50
3.33
Months of Inventory
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.18
1.29 1.02
1.00
0.86 0.58
0.68
0.65 0.39
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses September 2021
3.50
3.00
Months of Inventory
3.00
2.44
2.50
2.00
1.40
1.50
1.07
1.02
0.90
1.00
0.60 0.50
0.00
0.27 0.00
0.27 0.00
0.10
Absorption Rates - Manufactured Homes September 2021
2.50
2.14
Months of Inventory
2.00
1.50
1.07 1.00
1.13 1.00
0.55 0.50
0.00
Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula September 2021 3
2.15 2.00
2
1.02
1
1.00 1.07
0.55
n/a
0
SINGLE FAMILY
0.00
CONDOS
North Saanich
n/a
0.10
0.27 n/a
TOWNHOMES
Sidney
MANUFACTURED
Central Saanich
Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula September 2021 3
2.15 2.00
2
1
1.02 0.55
0
n/a
0.00
SINGLE FAMILY
n/a
0.10
0.27
CONDOS TOWNHOMES
North Saanich
Sidney
Central Saanich