VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2021 FOURTH QUARTER IN REVIEW HOLMES REALTY • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
© 2020, Holmes Realty Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this work covered by the publisher’s copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means (including but not limited to graphic, electronic or mechanical) without the written permission of the publisher.
2021 FOURTH QUARTER The fourth quarter, and indeed all of 2021 proved a remarkable year in Real Estate here in the Greater Victoria Area. Sales numbers experienced a steady decline from March of 2021 with 1173 sales to a low of 438 this past December. Despite this decline, a grand total of 10,052 properties sold last year, roughly 18% more than the 8,497 in 2020. Notably, this steady decline coincided with a remarkably low inventory throughout the last three quarters of 2021. Buyer demand has remained very strong throughout the year. Well priced, high demand property commanded intense interest and frequently was the subject of intense multiple offer competitions between buyers. There were 652 active listings available at the end of 2021, a decrease of just over 26% from the end of 2020. This represented the lowest inventory of active listings at month-end in the last 25 years. With this unprecedented lack of inventory, prices soared with our annual sales volume finishing at just
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME $10
$9
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$8
$7
$6
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$5
$4
$3
$2
Fourth Quarter
2021
$1
$0
Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS
Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)
6
5.3
5.1
5.6 4.7
5
5.2
4500 4000
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.1
3000
2.7
3.7
2.8
2.5
2.4 2.2
2000
2.0
2
Oct-2019
2019
Dec-2019
1.1
Jun-2019
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Apr-2016
Oct-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
2018
December
Dec-2013
1.2
November
2021
1.3
October
Jun-2013
2017
September
2020
1.4
1.3
August
2019
July
2018
2016
June
Aug-2013
2015
1.6
1.3
1.3
Aug-2016
1.3
May
April
Apr-2013
2014 March
February
Feb-2013
1.4
1.8
2013
January
1
1.9 Dec-2012
1000
1.5
Feb-2016
1500
Aug-2019
3
4.0
3.9
3.4
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.9
4.3
4.2
3500
2500
4.0
Apr-2019
4
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.6
Aug-2018
Months of Inventory
5000
Feb-2019
5500
5.7
under 9 billion dollars real of estate sold here on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service, an 18% increase in total sales values over 2020. Supply issues being the primary contributor, property values throughout 2021 soared here in the capital region with an average 29% increase in assessed values from BC Assessments across our fourteen local municipalities. 2021 ended with an all-time low absorption rate of only 1.1 months of real estate at the end of December. Demand for quality, well-priced homes, continues to vastly out-pace supply. In the absence of inventory, and property within our various neigh-
bourhoods selling out within days of listing, the absorption rates will continue to drop. At the time of writing, there were only two single family homes available for sale in Sidney, both listed over $999,000. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market. With only 1.1 months, this remains the strongest Seller’s Market ever. Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 5.2% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2020 to Q3-2021 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices $1,066,800
Townhouse Benchmark Prices $763,300
Condominium Benchmark Prices $563,500
the fourth quarter. The Saanich Peninsula and Core areas specifically experienced a 4.1% increase in benchmark prices. Westshore however experienced an 8.6% increase. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $1,066,800 at the end of
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
Q4. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,144,900 at the end of Q3. The benchmark was $951,100 in Westshore, and $1,133,000 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were only 153 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 5 are priced below $800,000. During the last quarter, 57% of homes sold were over their MLS listed price, and a further 12% sold at their list price. Almost 7 out of 10 of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price.
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
2021’s trend of unprecedented demand for property below 1.5 Million continued through Q4 in the Greater Victoria Area with on average just over a half month of inventory available. Demand for high end and luxury properties also remained very strong with only 1.41 months of inventory for homes between 1.5M and 2M and roughly three months of inventory on average above the 2M price point. To put some perspective on how the luxury market, has shifted in 2021, only a year ago, there were 12 months of inventory for homes priced between 2M and 3M. Remarkably, only a year ago, for property over 3M, there was 33 months of inventory available.
Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2021
3.32
4
3
Months of Inventory
2.59 3
2
1.41
2
0.88
1
0.55 0.59 1
0
0.23 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached December 2021
5.00
4.50
4.50
Months of Inventory
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.14 2.00
1.50
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.58
0.49
0.47
0.45 0.20
0.78
0.38
0.60
0.74
0.14
0.09
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
December 2021
December 2021
1.40
1.60
1.46
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.86
0.81
0.74
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.38
0.50
0.46
0.43
0.36 0.19
1.00
0.80
0.75 0.64
0.60
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.39 0.27
0.20
NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS
1.25
1.20
1.20
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
1.40
0.00
0.14 NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS
NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS
NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2021
December 2021
4
3
3.30
Months of Inventory
3.00
2
0.90
1
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
2.00
2
1.50 1.50 1.24 1
0.28 NO SALES PAST 3 0.10 0.20 0.00 MONTHS
0.27 0.24
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
2021 has truly been an extraordinary year for real estate here in the capital. As we head into 2022, our market remains an incredible opportunity for Sellers. However, inversely, this market represents a tremendous challenge for Buyers. Employing the services of a Realtor who can identify homes and ensure prospective Buyers have a chance to view and write an offer is the best recipe for success.
0
0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2021
6
5.00
5
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
3
4
3.00
3
2
1.33 1
0
0.25 0.09
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 Under $600K
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
0.64 $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
December 2021
December 2021
3
3.75
4
2.63 3
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
3 2
1.50
2
1
2
1.71
0.75
1
1
0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0.20 $1M to $1.5M
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR
0.00 $1.5 to $2M
0
SALES 0.00 Under $600K
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0.33 0.26 $600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR
SALES 0.00 $1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market. WE’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU! Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9
250-656-0911 ReachUs@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
This publication is protected by international copyright © 2021 Holmes Realty Ltd.