MH Collective - Quarterly Market Report - January 2022 Edition

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2021 FOURTH QUARTER IN REVIEW MH COLLECTIVE • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911

2021 FOURTH QUARTER The fourth quarter, and indeed all of 2021 proved a remarkable year in Real Estate here in the Greater Victoria Area. Sales numbers experienced a steady decline from March of 2021 with 1173 sales to a low of 438 this past December. Despite this decline, a grand total of 10,052 properties sold last year, roughly 18% more than the 8,497 in 2020.

Notably, this steady decline coincided with a remarkably low inventory throughout the last three quarters of 2021. Buyer demand has remained very strong throughout the year. Well priced, high demand property commanded intense interest and frequently was the subject of intense multiple offer competitions between buyers.

There were 652 active listings available at the end of 2021, a decrease of just over 26% from the end of 2020. This represented the lowest inventory of active listings at month-end in the last 25 years.

With this unprecedented lack of inventory, prices soared with our annual sales volume finishing at just

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME $10

MICHELE HOLMES

DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$8

$7

$6

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$9

$5

$4

$3

$2

Fourth Quarter

2021

$1

$0

Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS

Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)

6

5.3

5.1

5.6 4.7

5

5.2

4500 4000

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.8

4.0

3.6

3.5

3.1

3000

2.7

3.7

2.8

2.5

2.4 2.2

2000

2.0

2

Oct-2019

2019

Dec-2019

1.1

Jun-2019

Oct-2018

Dec-2018

Jun-2018

Apr-2018

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

Apr-2017

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Apr-2016

Oct-2015

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

Apr-2014

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

2018

December

Dec-2013

1.2

November

2021

1.3

October

Jun-2013

2017

September

2020

1.4

1.3

August

2019

July

2018

2016

June

Aug-2013

2015

1.6

1.3

1.3

Aug-2016

1.3

May

April

Apr-2013

2014 March

February

Feb-2013

1.4

1.8

2013

January

1

1.9 Dec-2012

1000

1.5

Feb-2016

1500

Aug-2019

3

4.0

3.9

3.4

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.9

4.3

4.2

3500

2500

4.0

Apr-2019

4

4.3

4.1

4.7

4.6

Aug-2018

Months of Inventory

5000

Feb-2019

5500

5.7

under 9 billion dollars real of estate sold here on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service, an 18% increase in total sales values over 2020. Supply issues being the primary contributor, property values throughout 2021 soared here in the capital region with an average 29% increase in assessed values from BC Assessments across our fourteen local municipalities.

2021 ended with an all-time low absorption rate of only 1.1 months of real estate at the end of December. Demand for quality, well-priced homes, continues to vastly out-pace supply. In the absence of inventory, and property within our various neigh-

bourhoods selling out within days of listing, the absorption rates will continue to drop. At the time of writing, there were only two single family homes available for sale in Sidney, both listed over $999,000. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market. With only 1.1 months, this remains the strongest Seller’s Market ever.

Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 5.2% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2020 to Q3-2021 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL

BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices $1,066,800

Townhouse Benchmark Prices $763,300

Condominium Benchmark Prices $563,500

the fourth quarter. The Saanich Peninsula and Core areas specifically experienced a 4.1% increase in benchmark prices. Westshore however experienced an 8.6% increase.

The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $1,066,800 at the end of

SALES OVER LIST PRICE

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

BELOW LIST PRICE

Q4. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,144,900 at the end of Q3. The benchmark was $951,100 in Westshore, and $1,133,000 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were only 153 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 5 are priced below $800,000.

During the last quarter, 57% of homes sold were over their MLS listed price, and a further 12% sold at their list price. Almost 7 out of 10 of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price.

Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Active Listings

Number of Sales

2021’s trend of unprecedented demand for property below 1.5 Million continued through Q4 in the Greater Victoria Area with on average just over a half month of inventory available. Demand for high end and luxury properties also remained very strong with only 1.41 months of inventory for homes between 1.5M and 2M and roughly three months of inventory on average above the 2M price point. To put some perspective on how the luxury market, has shifted in 2021, only a year ago, there were 12 months of inventory for homes priced between 2M and 3M. Remarkably, only a year ago, for property over 3M, there was 33 months of inventory available.

Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2021

3.32

4

3

Months of Inventory

2.59 3

2

1.41

2

0.88

1

0.55 0.59 1

0

0.23 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached December 2021

5.00

4.50

4.50

Months of Inventory

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.14 2.00

1.50

0.83

1.00

0.50

0.58

0.49

0.47

0.45 0.20

0.78

0.38

0.60

0.74

0.14

0.09

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

December 2021

December 2021

1.40

1.60

1.46

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.86

0.81

0.74

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

0.38

0.50

0.46

0.43

0.36 0.19

1.00

0.80

0.75 0.64

0.60

0.38

0.40

0.43

0.39 0.27

0.20

NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS

1.25

1.20

1.20

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

1.40

0.00

0.14 NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS

NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS

NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2021

December 2021

4

3

3.30

Months of Inventory

3.00

2

0.90

1

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

2.00

2

1.50 1.50 1.24 1

0.28 NO SALES PAST 3 0.10 0.20 0.00 MONTHS

0.27 0.24

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

2021 has truly been an extraordinary year for real estate here in the capital.

As we head into 2022, our market remains an incredible opportunity for Sellers.

However, inversely, this market represents a tremendous challenge for Buyers. Employing the services of a Realtor who can identify homes and ensure prospective Buyers have a chance to view and write an offer is the best recipe for success.

0

0.00 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2021

6

5.00

5

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

3

4

3.00

3

2

1.33 1

0

0.25 0.09

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.00 Under $600K

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

0.64 $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

December 2021

December 2021

3

3.75

4

2.63 3

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

3 2

1.50

2

1

2

1.71

0.75

1

1

0

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

0.20 $1M to $1.5M

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR

0.00 $1.5 to $2M

0

SALES 0.00 Under $600K

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

0.33 0.26 $600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR

SALES 0.00 $1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Connecting people with the right spaces.

IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED

BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market.

IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE WOULD BE HAPPY TO HELP! Deanna

Clayton

David

250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright © 2021 Holmes Realty Ltd.