Victoria Quarterly Market Update - Q2 2022

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2022 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW MH COLLECTIVE • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911

2022 SECOND QUARTER

W

hile the first quarter of 2022 began to see the start of a shift in our local Real Estate market, Q2 has certainly experienced the most significant change with our robust housing market leveling off. The brisk paced, “list it and buyers will come” market of 2021 appears to be behind us. Buyers now have a much larger inventory pool to choose from and more time for due diligence and making sensible reasoned choices.

As of the end of June, the total sales volume for 2022 has reached 4.4 Billion dollars, just about half of 2021’s sales. While prices have this past year maintained record highs, we have, in the later half of Q2 started to see prices soften here in the Victoria market.

The first half of 2022’s market has supported an average list price close to 1.4M for a single family detached property. This past June however, that average price dropped to just over 1M. This is a significant adjustment in overall list prices.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

$10

MICHELE HOLMES

DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$8

$7

$6

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$9

$5

$4

$3

$2

Second Quarter

2022

$1

$0

Absorption Rate

6

5.7

5.3

5.1

Months of Inventory

Greater Victoria Area - (2019-2022)

4.7

5

4.7

4.6

4

4.2

5.6 5.2 4.3

4.1

4.0

3.9

4.3

2.8

3

4.0

3.5

3.7 2.8 2.4

2.2

2 1

1.8 1.6

1.4

1.6

1.5

2.2

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

December

November

2022

October

September

August

2021

1.4

1.3

July

2020

June

2019

2.0 1.6

May

April

March

February

January

0

1.9

4.2

4.0

Additionally, the typical days-on-market of single family has crept up from a low of only 6 days on market during Q1 to 15 days at the end of Q2. The absorption rate in the Greater Victoria Area has also steadily been increasing as our market changes. From a record low of only 1.1 months of inventory this past December to now almost 3 months of inventory available here on our MLS system. Overall, giving Buyers a good bit of breathing room while working with a Realtor to make their purchasing decisions.

Greater Victoria Area - Median Days On Market

Greater Victoria Area - Average Monthly List Price June 2022 $1,600,000

$1,400,000

$1,492,782 $1,391,578

$1,386,829

June 2022

16 $1,480,921

$1,476,131

$1,485,084

14

$1,310,098

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

15

$1,477,433

$1,389,973

12 $1,006,181

12 11

10.5

10

10

$800,000

8

$600,000

6

$400,000

4

$200,000

2

$0

0

7

7 6

6

6

Q2-2022 had a total of 2,197 sales during the quarter, up slightly from 2,025 sales in Q1. However, when comparing this past quarter to the same period in 2021, sales are down significantly from 3,107 in Q22021.

The first half of 2022 has experienced very stable benchmark prices since the end of last year. June however has started to see that trend change. Where in the past we have had nearly 5% growth in prices from quarter to quarter, May to June benchmarks may have reached their peek and in some neighbourhood prices have started to drop.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (May 2022 to June 2022 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL

BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices $1,301,300

Townhouse Benchmark Prices $850,300

Condominium Benchmark Prices $630,100

Looking at sale prices visualized over time, the statistics also reinforce the idea that our market is transitioning.

We are still not in what would be considered a balanced market, that being 5 to 6 months of inventory. However, with the trajectory the absorption rate is currently following it’s only a matter of months before our market is there.

SALES OVER LIST PRICE

32%

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

56% 12%

BELOW LIST PRICE

In Q2, 56% of homes sold were above their MLS listed price. A drop from 70% last quarter. A further 12% sold at their list price and 32% sold under list. While these numbers still favour sellers, the declining proportion of over list price sales is representative of the changing market we see before us. Multiple offer situations are increasingly rare with buyers now having more time for due diligence and much more inventory to choose from.

Rising inventory and slowing sales are the biggest contributers to the gradual shift to a Buyer’s Market we are experiencing right now.

While opportunity still exists for sellers in the local Victoria market and it remains very lucrative in contrast to previous years, now more than ever price evaluations and marketing needs to be precise. Sellers must be pragmatic in markets that are in transition. A home value at the start of the listing process may not be accurate after a week of staging, photos and other preparations. Careful consideration of

Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Active Listings

Number of Sales

showing appointment volume and feedback, in addition to tracking new comparable inventory is important. Finally, the ability to quickly adapt such market signals and adjust accordingly is key to a successful sale in a changing market.

Now more than ever, if you are considering selling or are interested in knowing what your home might be worth, please get in touch for a complimentary home evaluation.

Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range June 2022

10

8.80

9

Months of Inventory

8 7 6 5

4.26 3.36

4 3 2

2.00

1.85

2.30 2.48

1 0

Under $600K $600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2022

4.50

4.00

Months of Inventory

4.00

3.78

3.50

3.00

2.74

2.65 2.39

2.50

2.23

2.10

2.00

2.00

2.46 2.40 1.89

1.66 1.50

1.31

1.20

1.00

0.50

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

June 2022

June 2022

3.00

4.00

2.70 3.50

2.40

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

2.50

3.00

2.00

2.49

2.40

2.50

2.00

1.37

1.50

1.26

1.43

1.38

1.41

1.27

1.04 1.00

0.60

2.00

1.71

1.64 1.41

1.50

1.45

1.50

1.21 1.00

1.11

1.00

0.50

0.50

NO ACTIVE

0.00

0.00

0.00 LISTINGS

1.74

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range

Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range June 2022

June 2022

10

4

9.00

9

3.00

3

7

6.00

6 5

3.94

4

2.80

3

1.90

2 1 0

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

8

2.00

2

1.50

2.00 2.06

1.71

1.50

1

1.09 NO ACTIVE

LISTINGS 0.00 OR SALES Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Colwood Absorption Rates by Price Range

June 2022

June 2022

15.00

16 15

6

5.40

5.70

14 5

13

4.50

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5

3.86

4

1.80 1.77 1.98

3 2 1 0

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

4

3

2.00

2

1.50

1 NO ACTIVE

NO SALES

LAST 3 0.00 0.00 MONTHS Under $600K $600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

0

Over $3M

NO SALES

LISTINGS 0.00 OR SALES Under $600K

IN PAST 3 0.00 MONTHS $600K to $800K $800K to $1M

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

June 2022

7

11

6.00

6

10

5

3.92

4

3

2.10 2

1.13 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

7

5.60

6 5 4 3

1

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K

8

1.66

2

1

0 $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

2.23

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

NO SALES

OR SALES 0.00 Under $600K

$1M to $1.5M

9.60

9.00

9

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

$1.5 to $2M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

June 2022

0

$1M to $1.5M

LAST 3 0.00 MONTHS $600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

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250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

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