VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2020 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
2020 SECOND QUARTER The first half of 2020 was truely unprecedented for the Victoria real estate market. The first quarter of the year started off much like past years with a gradual rise in volume from our historically slower winter months. Then, in March with the onset COVID-19 we saw our sales numbers plummet to a low of only 287 sales for the month of April. While these numbers were certainly of great concern, at the time, it was our position that that this pandemic was simply akin to a pause button being pressed on our real estate market. As the pandemic progressed, our industry gradually adapted to listing and showing properties while maintaining correct protocols for social distancing. At the end of last quarter, June had a total of 808 sales, surpassing both 2019 and 2018 sales numbers. The total sales volume at the end of Q2 was approximately 2.3 Billion dollars, almost 50% of the total volume of 2019. The total number of active listings at the end of Q2 was 2,698. This number has been climbing steadily since the start of the year as is historically the trend for our spring market.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
$7
MICHELE HOLMES
DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$5
$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$6
$3
$2
$1
Second Quarter
2020
$0
ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000
Oct-2019
2019
Dec-2019
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Apr-2019
Feb-2019
Oct-2018
2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
2015
Dec-2015
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Aug-2015
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Oct-2014
2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
2013
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1000
Dec-2012
1500
Supply and demand of high end property compared to mid-ranged homes continued to experience a significant difference during Q2. Looking at absorption rates based on price range in the Greater Victoria Area, under the million dollar mark, the absorption rate was on average less than two months of inventory. Between $1M & $1.5M there was roughly 4.5 months of inventory. Over the $1.5M price point where the market shifts dramatically. We have 7.8 months of inventory
in the $1.5 to $2M price range, and we have 12.43 months of inventory in the $2M to $3M price range. Over $3M we have an astonishing 26.57 Months of inventory. Putting that into perspective, there was an average of approximately 2.3 sales over the $3M price point, per month in Q2. Additionally, there were 79 single family homes for sale over $3M in the Greater Victoria Area at the end of Q2. The BC Speculation Tax is a major factor behind many of these higher-end homes coming to market. Benchmark prices for a single family home have improved slightly throughout the fourth quarter of 2019. The overall benchmark for a sin-
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2020 to Q2-2020 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
gle family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $790,900 at the end of Q2. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $896,200 at the end of Q2.
The benchmark was
$680,300 in Westshore, and $825,300 on the Peninsula. Over the quarter, in general, benchmark prices for single family homes have increased $20,000 from the preview quarter across the whole of the Greater Victoria Area.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
While not commonplace, we have started to see multiple offer become more plentiful and selling prices have started to go over asking price.
23% of Single Family
Detached home sales in Q2 of 2019 were over list price. A further 15% were at the listed price. Finally, 62% of sales in Q2 were under the list price.
During Q2, 74% of the homes sold in the Greater Victoria Area sold above their BCA assessed values. Of the 730 single family sales in Q2, only 2 were at the assessed value amounting to less that 1% of sales.
SALES OVER ASSESSED VALUE
OVER BCA ASSESSED VALUE BELOW BCA ASSESSED VALUE
During the second quarter, the absorption rate climbed from 4.3 months of inventory at the end of April, to 5.6 months in May, then back down to 5.2 at the end of Q2. With the rate remaining over five months of inventory, this indicates that we are experiencing a somewhat ballanced Market. This number however represents an overall averaged rate across all property types, price ranges and neighbourhoods. Depending on the price range and the location, the absorption rate and market type can vary dramatically.
Absorption Rates
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2020
12.00
9.75
Months of Inventory
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
3.54
2.00
4.98 4.50
4.11 3.29
1.50
2.65 2.05
2.04
0.00
Absorption Rates - Condominiums June 2020
15.00
14.00
Months of Inventory
12.00
11.47
11.14
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
7.54 5.38
6.00 5.14 4.89 5.00
4.33
4.09 4.41
2.92
3.35 3.09 2.61 1.88
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE
These absorption rates by price range charts continue to illustrate effect price range has upon property demand. As prices move beyond $1.5M supply generally vastly exceeds demand and as such property in the luxury segment can take much longer to sell. If you have any questions about the information contained in this report, please feel free to contact us.
Michele Holmes
Debra Bartlett & Erin Mackenzie
Expect the Exceptional
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market.
IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE’D BE HAPPY TO HELP! Deanna
Clayton
David
250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
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