Victoria Market Quarterly Update - Q3 - 2020

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2020 THIRD QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911

2020 SECOND QUARTER Twenty-twenty has proved to be a year like nothing we have ever experienced before. What started as a typical year in our local Real Estate market was quickly derailed in March with the COVID-19 pandemic and closures of businesses across the world. In April, sales plummeted to a record low of only 287 sales. Through the course of Q2, as our industry learned how to safely adapt to selling homes in this new climate, our numbers began to recover. These past three months quite possibly have been the strongest Q3 ever in the Greater Victoria Real Estate market: 979 sales in July, 979 again in August, and 989 September. To see these record breaking numbers during a period where our sales figures historically recede as winter approaches, perfectly illustrates both the pentup demand for housing and the desirability of property in British Columbia. Our Province has handled this pandemic very well compared to others, and we believe this has directly impacted the desirability of this Region despite the higher prices of homes.

The total sales volume at the end of Q3 was approximately 4.66 Billion dollars, almost 95% of the total volume of 2020. The number of active listings available declined throughout Q3, ending with only 2,389 this past Septem-

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

MICHELE HOLMES

$7

DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

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$5

$4

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$3

$2

Third Quarter

2020

$1

$0

Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range

ACTIVE LISTINGS September 2020

6

5.27

5500

5.00

5000

5

Months of Inventory

4500 4000

4

3500 3000

2.80

3

2500 2000

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Oct-2019

2019

Dec-2019

Jun-2019

Aug-2019

Apr-2019

Feb-2019

Oct-2018

2018

Dec-2018

Jun-2018

Aug-2018

Apr-2018

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

Apr-2017

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

Apr-2016

2015

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

Apr-2014

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

2013

0.60

1.17 1.11 Dec-2013

Jun-2013

Aug-2013

Apr-2013

Feb-2013

1

Dec-2012

1000

Dec-2015

1.67

2

1500

Over $3M

ber. This lack of inventory has pushed our absorption rate down to only 2.4 months, making this a very strong Seller’s market. Currently demand for quality, well-positioned property significantly outweighs supply.

Increasingly, through Q3 we have seen demand for high-end homes improve with the absorption rate for property in the 1M to 3M range dropping considerably. Mid-ranged homes 1M command the highest demand currently.

Benchmark prices for a single family home have improved slightly throughout the third quarter in the Westshore and Peninsula areas. Interestingly, Victoria’s Core area experienced a slight drop in benchmark prices over the last quarter. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $793,000 at the end of Q3. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $879,200 at the end of Q3.

The benchmark was $695,500 in Westshore, and $842,800 on the Peninsula. Over the quarter, in general, benchmark prices for single family homes have largely remained the same from the previous quarter when averaging across all of the Victoria Region.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2020 to Q2-2020 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL

BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices

Townhouse Benchmark Prices

Condominium Benchmark Prices

Overall we are seeing some leveling off of prices across all property types here in Victoria. Regardless of the strong Seller’s market and limited supply, we are not seeing a significant escalation in market value. The Single Family benchmark and Condominium benchmark have both dipped slightly from the start of Spring, but town homes have increased.

SALES OVER LIST PRICE

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

BELOW LIST PRICE

During the third quarter, 26% of the homes sold in this period were over their MLS listed price and a further 27% sold at their listed price. The remaining 47% sold below the listed price. This is a substantial increase in “at & above list” sales from the last quarter.

Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2017-2020)

1100

1000

Number of Sales

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2017

478

675

929

885

1006

1008

790

736

640

664

671

462

2018

431

545

688

774

755

708

651

594

533

598

462

375

2019

329

421

640

696

848

740

706

661

616

619

577

402

2020

411

563

608

287

457

808

979

979

989

During the third quarter, the absorption rate climbed dropped from 3.5 months of inventory at the end of July, to 2.4 months in September.

With the absorption rate dropping well below five months of remaining inventory, this indicates that we are experiencing a decidedly Seller’s Market. This number however, represents an overall averaged rate across all property types, price ranges and neighbourhoods. Depending on the price range and the location, the absorption rate and market type can vary dramatically.

Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2017-2020)

6

5.7 5.3

5.1

4.7

5

4.7

4.6

4

4.2

4.3

3.4

5.6 5.2 4.3

4.1

4.0

3.1

3

4.1

4.3 4.1

4.2 4.0 3.7

2.8

2.4

2.4

2.3 2.1

2.4 December

November

2020

October

2019

September

2018

2.3 2.1

August

2017

2.2

July

2.5

June

March

February

2.5

May

2.3

2.5

4.2

3.6

2.5

January

1

4.0

3.8 3.5

2.7 2.3

2

3.9

4.0

3.9

April

Months of Inventory

7

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2020

5.00

4.67

4.50

Months of Inventory

4.00

3.51

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.53

1.44 1.52 1.49

1.50

1.00

1.73 1.42

1.29

1.44

1.33

1.00

0.92

0.75

1.26

0.50

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

September 2020

September 2020

8.00

5.00

7.50

4.71

4.50

7.00

4.00

5.00

4.00

3.70 3.19

3.53

3.30

3.20

3.00

2.61

2.40 2.00

1.00

0.00

2.24 1.64

1.76 1.33

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

4.00

6.00

3.50

3.00

2.88 2.44

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.67

1.80 1.50 1.18

1.33

1.29

0.50

0.00

1.18 0.82

1.00

0.00

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2020

September 2020

10

10

9.00

9

9.00

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

8

5

3.00 1.24 0

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

0.00 Under $600K

$600K to $800K

1.88 1.06

0.73 $800K to $1M

7 6

4.80

5 4

3.00 3.00

3

1.43 1.09 1.20

2 1

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

with low months of inventory in all segments

4

except the very high end.

4

of the year.

Months of Inventory

range, we continue to see a Seller’s market

in demand when compared to the beginning

Over $3M

3.90 3.86 2.87

3

2.44

3 2 2

If you have any questions about the infor-

1

mation contained in this report, please feel

1

free to contact us.

0

0.83

1.10

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

OR SALES 0.00 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

September 2020

September 2020

12

15.00

16 15

9.82

10

$2M to $3M

September 2020

5

high-end segment is also seeing an increase

$1.5 to $2M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

When reviewing absorption rates by price

That said, our

$1M to $1.5M

14 13

8

6

3.23

4

2.25 2.50 2

0

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

10 9 8 7 6 5 4

2

1.00

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

11

3

1

0.00 0.00 Under $600K

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

12

0.38

1.01

1.94

2.79

3.75 NO ACTIVE

LISTINGS OR 0.00 SALES

0 Under $600K $1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Michele Holmes

Debra Bartlett & Erin Mackenzie

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BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market.

IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE’D BE HAPPY TO HELP! Deanna

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David

250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

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