VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2020 THIRD QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
2020 SECOND QUARTER Twenty-twenty has proved to be a year like nothing we have ever experienced before. What started as a typical year in our local Real Estate market was quickly derailed in March with the COVID-19 pandemic and closures of businesses across the world. In April, sales plummeted to a record low of only 287 sales. Through the course of Q2, as our industry learned how to safely adapt to selling homes in this new climate, our numbers began to recover. These past three months quite possibly have been the strongest Q3 ever in the Greater Victoria Real Estate market: 979 sales in July, 979 again in August, and 989 September. To see these record breaking numbers during a period where our sales figures historically recede as winter approaches, perfectly illustrates both the pentup demand for housing and the desirability of property in British Columbia. Our Province has handled this pandemic very well compared to others, and we believe this has directly impacted the desirability of this Region despite the higher prices of homes. The total sales volume at the end of Q3 was approximately 4.66 Billion dollars, almost 95% of the total volume of 2020. The number of active listings available declined throughout Q3, ending with only 2,389 this past Septem-
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
MICHELE HOLMES
$7
DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$6
$5
$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$3
$2
Third Quarter
2020
$1
$0
Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range
ACTIVE LISTINGS September 2020
6
5.27
5500
5.00
5000
5
Months of Inventory
4500 4000
4
3500 3000
2.80
3
2500 2000
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Oct-2019
2019
Dec-2019
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Apr-2019
Feb-2019
Oct-2018
2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
2015
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
2013
0.60
1.17 1.11 Dec-2013
Jun-2013
Aug-2013
Apr-2013
Feb-2013
1
Dec-2012
1000
Dec-2015
1.67
2
1500
Over $3M
ber. This lack of inventory has pushed our absorption rate down to only 2.4 months, making this a very strong Seller’s market. Currently demand for quality, well-positioned property significantly outweighs supply. Increasingly, through Q3 we have seen demand for high-end homes improve with the absorption rate for property in the 1M to 3M range dropping considerably. Mid-ranged homes 1M command the highest demand currently.
Benchmark prices for a single family home have improved slightly throughout the third quarter in the Westshore and Peninsula areas. Interestingly, Victoria’s Core area experienced a slight drop in benchmark prices over the last quarter. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $793,000 at the end of Q3. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $879,200 at the end of Q3. The benchmark was $695,500 in Westshore, and $842,800 on the Peninsula. Over the quarter, in general, benchmark prices for single family homes have largely remained the same from the previous quarter when averaging across all of the Victoria Region.
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2020 to Q2-2020 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
Overall we are seeing some leveling off of prices across all property types here in Victoria. Regardless of the strong Seller’s market and limited supply, we are not seeing a significant escalation in market value. The Single Family benchmark and Condominium benchmark have both dipped slightly from the start of Spring, but town homes have increased.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
During the third quarter, 26% of the homes sold in this period were over their MLS listed price and a further 27% sold at their listed price. The remaining 47% sold below the listed price. This is a substantial increase in “at & above list” sales from the last quarter.
Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2017-2020)
1100
1000
Number of Sales
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
478
675
929
885
1006
1008
790
736
640
664
671
462
2018
431
545
688
774
755
708
651
594
533
598
462
375
2019
329
421
640
696
848
740
706
661
616
619
577
402
2020
411
563
608
287
457
808
979
979
989
During the third quarter, the absorption rate climbed dropped from 3.5 months of inventory at the end of July, to 2.4 months in September. With the absorption rate dropping well below five months of remaining inventory, this indicates that we are experiencing a decidedly Seller’s Market. This number however, represents an overall averaged rate across all property types, price ranges and neighbourhoods. Depending on the price range and the location, the absorption rate and market type can vary dramatically.
Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2017-2020)
6
5.7 5.3
5.1
4.7
5
4.7
4.6
4
4.2
4.3
3.4
5.6 5.2 4.3
4.1
4.0
3.1
3
4.1
4.3 4.1
4.2 4.0 3.7
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.3 2.1
2.4 December
November
2020
October
2019
September
2018
2.3 2.1
August
2017
2.2
July
2.5
June
March
February
2.5
May
2.3
2.5
4.2
3.6
2.5
January
1
4.0
3.8 3.5
2.7 2.3
2
3.9
4.0
3.9
April
Months of Inventory
7
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2020
5.00
4.67
4.50
Months of Inventory
4.00
3.51
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.53
1.44 1.52 1.49
1.50
1.00
1.73 1.42
1.29
1.44
1.33
1.00
0.92
0.75
1.26
0.50
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
September 2020
September 2020
8.00
5.00
7.50
4.71
4.50
7.00
4.00
5.00
4.00
3.70 3.19
3.53
3.30
3.20
3.00
2.61
2.40 2.00
1.00
0.00
2.24 1.64
1.76 1.33
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
4.00
6.00
3.50
3.00
2.88 2.44
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.67
1.80 1.50 1.18
1.33
1.29
0.50
0.00
1.18 0.82
1.00
0.00
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range September 2020
September 2020
10
10
9.00
9
9.00
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
8
5
3.00 1.24 0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K
1.88 1.06
0.73 $800K to $1M
7 6
4.80
5 4
3.00 3.00
3
1.43 1.09 1.20
2 1
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
with low months of inventory in all segments
4
except the very high end.
4
of the year.
Months of Inventory
range, we continue to see a Seller’s market
in demand when compared to the beginning
Over $3M
3.90 3.86 2.87
3
2.44
3 2 2
If you have any questions about the infor-
1
mation contained in this report, please feel
1
free to contact us.
0
0.83
1.10
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
OR SALES 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
September 2020
September 2020
12
15.00
16 15
9.82
10
$2M to $3M
September 2020
5
high-end segment is also seeing an increase
$1.5 to $2M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range
When reviewing absorption rates by price
That said, our
$1M to $1.5M
14 13
8
6
3.23
4
2.25 2.50 2
0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
10 9 8 7 6 5 4
2
1.00
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
11
3
1
0.00 0.00 Under $600K
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
12
0.38
1.01
1.94
2.79
3.75 NO ACTIVE
LISTINGS OR 0.00 SALES
0 Under $600K $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Michele Holmes
Debra Bartlett & Erin Mackenzie
Expect the Excep оal
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market.
IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE’D BE HAPPY TO HELP! Deanna
Clayton
David
250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
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